Patterico's Pontifications

11/9/2010

A Graphic Representation of the Path of That “Missile”

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 5:24 pm



Earlier today, I described that weird alleged missile launch (or was it just a plane?) off the coast of Southern California:

What I found interesting, though, was that if you traced it back away from the sea towards land, it became a sort of ghostly translucent dark blue color. I had never seen a color like that before on a contrail and it got my attention.

It certainly seemed to trace back overhead. I can’t say that it actually went overhead because I didn’t go outside to look at it.

From inside the house, the trail traced from the ocean up to the roof of the porch, and disappeared behind the porch roof.

Because I don’t think words describe it well, I tried to roughly draw for you what I am talking about, using an old sunset picture from the back of our house. What I have drawn below does not accurately represent the colors I saw, as will be clear from my explanation. But the picture does show the approximate shape and location of the contrail from my vantage point:

Imagine that the white part near the ocean is a bright orange contrail, exactly as you saw in the video. The black part is the approximate curvature of that weird, band of translucent blue that faded into the bright orange. The blue was about the same hue as the ocean, but it did not look anything like the sort of vaporous trail you normally see from a contrail — as, for example, a normally white contrail turning bluish/black in the minutes after sunset. That is not what I saw. Rather, the band I saw looked very even and smooth, with none of the wispy nature you normally associate with a contrail. It almost looked like an effect of lighting — like a dark, curved spotlight, or a rainbow without color. You had the impression that you could see through it (which is why I called it translucent).

Imagine that the top of the picture is where our porch roof starts; this is where I lost the trail, as I was inside the house. (I actually saw less of it than is indicated in the picture, because this picture was taken outside, and you can’t see as much of the sky from inside the house, which is where I was when I saw the contrail.)

I have seen absolutely no discussion of this aspect of the phenomenon, but it was there. I saw it shortly after 5 p.m. in precisely the area where the “missile” (or plane) was reported.

Man, I wish I had taken a picture.

For what it’s worth, I have received visits today from navy.mil in Norfolk, Virginia and Helen, Maryland, as well as nasa.gov. Any of you folks want to weigh in below?? Or are y’all just as befuddled as I am?

P.S. Here is some more video:

Note that the translucent band I saw is not present in this video (or the other one I embedded earlier) — but both videos are showing the object in motion. I saw it several minutes later.

84 Responses to “A Graphic Representation of the Path of That “Missile””

  1. When I saw this I totally had the idea that the plane had been to, or was going to, the vicinity of Long Beach.

    Patterico (c218bd)

  2. Well, what do you think it was? Missile or plane?

    Christoph (8ec277)

  3. What isn’t clear from your description is the direction of movement. From your perspective, was it coming toward you? If so, what direction? If so it is likely a contrail of an aircraft.

    I live on the southern Gulf coast of Florida and often there are aircraft leaving contrails at sunset, most coming from Houston or Mexico city. Their contrails will change color as the sun sets or passes behind clouds.

    What bothers me though is the lackadazical attitude of DoD in providing an answer. Certainly they can check flight tracks of commercial or military flights. At higher altitudes they must file a flight plan, and be under positive control.

    Corky Boyd (d787be)

  4. I’ve seen the color-change effect that you describe many times. It’s caused by the contrail intersecting the sunset shadow of the Earth. The bright orange is the contrail reflecting the setting sun; the darker section is in shadow. You don’t see the “wispyness” of a normal contrail because of both the lack of light and the contrast difference; all you can see is the denser “core” of the contrail, not the lighter/less dense edges.

    Rusty Bill (ca7b34)

  5. For what it’s worth, I have received visits today from navy.mil in Norfolk, Virginia and Helen, Maryland, as well as nasa.gov

    Are you serious? You mean visits to the site, not people showing up in your office, right?

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  6. I don’t know what it was. I didn’t see it moving. The explanation that it was a plane makes the most sense, I think.

    Patterico (c218bd)

  7. Comment by Rusty Bill — 11/9/2010 @ 5:59 pm

    Oh yeah, give us a far-fetched explanation, why don’t you. You’re overlooking the established fact that it’s almost certainly a Chinese SLBM.

    Christoph (8ec277)

  8. Visits to the site.

    Patterico (c218bd)

  9. Rusty Bill: why did it appear translucent?

    Patterico (c218bd)

  10. nasa.gov

    So, you think they’ve taken notes on what we’ve said about AGW?

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  11. For what it’s worth, I have received visits today from navy.mil in Norfolk, Virginia and Helen, Maryland, as well as nasa.gov

    Yeah, he had me going for a second too until I saw the top-level domains.

    I feel a bit of sympathy for the military. In truth, they probably don’t have a clue, but they can’t just come out and say they don’t know anymore than you know, it’s probably nothing, we’re busy doing stuff, and we’ll probably never know, so don’t sweat it.

    I expect a lot from the military, but not to account for every contrail or what have you.

    Christoph (8ec277)

  12. Did any observers hear anything associated with the contrail. I ask because in the past, there have been observations of strange contrails that were linked with a pulsing sound. Some of these were also recorded on seismographs on the west coast. Actually, at least one report I read (it was in Aviation Week/Space Technology) had the seismographs noting the pulsing along the west coast in the same area as the contrails yesterday.

    The assumption was that it maker of the pulsing/contrails was an experimental USAF aircraft traveling at really high speeds.

    As to what it is, no clue here.

    Bill Cook (4bbd17)

  13. “So, you think they’ve taken notes on what we’ve said about AGW?”

    Dude, I don’t even think they know what a friggin’ comet is.

    More for anyone interested.

    Christoph (8ec277)

  14. If it was a secret satellite launch, you won’t hear about it until they make up a bs story about it. If it was one of those missile interception tests, you might hear about that later. P.S. my neighbor works on that and he is gone right now (he leaves when they do tests and stuff on that.

    Chris Hooten (11ee1d)

  15. I suppose they could have been testing intercepting a missile that we normally do not launch off of the coast, like a foreign one… They probably wouldn’t want to go public with that. The contrails sound unusual.

    Chris Hooten (11ee1d)

  16. Over on the Air Vent, owned by an aeronautical engineer, the comment was made that 1) you can see the flame, 2) there is no separation between the object and the smoke, and with contrails there is some separation as the hot vapor cools down and becomes visible. And finally that the profile is classic SLBM, straight up until velocity builds and then laying over to point at the target.

    As an old submariner who served on boats out of Dago, I can only say that if a foreign sub got within 35 miles of the coast then the Navy has fallen down on the job. That coast is thickly monitored by variouis devices.

    agesilaus (805931)

  17. If it was a secret satellite launch,

    Hard to believe they would launch a satellite so far from the equator. That would be extremely wasteful.

    Bill Cook’s theory is really interesting. I agree it’s pure speculation.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  18. This is the post at Air Vent if anyone wants to join me in reading it.

    Christoph (8ec277)

  19. Not all satellites have a geostationary orbit (directly over the equator, rotating at the same speed as the earth.) But I tend to think it wasn’t a satellite launch.

    Chris Hooten (11ee1d)

  20. #13 Comment by Christoph

    OK, somebody last week happens to mention that the source of the sun’s radiant energy is not from fusion, but from the plasma state resulting from the heat of fusion. A friend who has a PhD in physics (high energy subatomic stuff) tells me yesterday, “Oh yeah, we’ve known about that a long time- you can tell by looking at the spectrum.”

    Now you tell me that not only are comets not dirty snow balls (that’s what I taught my daughter not long ago, said so in the book), but that the laws of gravity are not the same at all places in the universe.

    Between these surprises and Chinese off of LA, how am I going to get to sleep tonight?

    Stop it, just stop it, I say.

    BTW, you can offer them Berkeley, they don’t want US military protection anyway.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  21. “Rusty Bill: why did it appear translucent?”

    Side effect of the lack of light. Contrails aren’t opaque; they just look that way because of the light reflecting off of them. Take away the light and you can see right through them. The same effect is used in police procedurals on TV – the so-called “one-way mirror” in the line-up room. You can simulate it for yourself with a tea kettle (the kind with the little hole that whistles). Boil your water, turn off the lights in the kitchen and use a focused flashlight (MagLite, frex) on the steam. You can create the same effect.

    Rusty Bill (ca7b34)

  22. Not all satellites have a geostationary orbit (directly over the equator, rotating at the same speed as the earth.) But I tend to think it wasn’t a satellite launch.

    Comment by Chris Hooten

    Getting a sat over the equator is not the reason launches are pushed as close to the equator as possible. It saves tremendous amounts of fuel because your object starts at a higher speed. Cape Canaveral is moving faster than Anchorage Alaska.

    I don’t really understand your claim about ‘same speed as Earth’. You’re moving much, much faster than the surface of the planet. You’re moving faster the higher the orbit. An orbit is a constant ‘fall’ that, combined with velocity forward, constantly ‘falls’ in an endless circle (endless until you slow down and lose orbit). This is why Cape Canaveral is as close to the equator (the fastest moving point) as they could go in the continental US.

    Not trying to be a know it all. I think it’s an interesting topic.

    I also think the airplane explanation is plausible, even though it looks so much like a missile.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  23. Dustin you may want to use search to check out Vandenburg AFB where they launched a satellite a few days ago.

    agesilaus (805931)

  24. Last December, the Russians launched a submarine missile that left a translucent blue contrail, although the Russian missile ended up spiraling out of control. There are photos here if you want to compare them to what you saw. These photos seem most like what you describe.

    DRJ (d43dcd)

  25. More likely than not, an aircraft contrail. Don’t let the colors fool you. Sunset in a clear sky with just a touch of LA smog and water vapor condensing in a contrail. Lots of color possibilities, including the blue Pat talked about seeing.

    Bill M (12e02d)

  26. The blue color can be caused either by atmospheric impurities (a.k.a. “smog”) or by reflected Earthlight. DRJ’s link in #24 shows an excellent example of this.

    Rusty Bill (ca7b34)

  27. I did some checking on Flight Aware.

    If this was an aircraft contrail, likely it came from from US Air flight 808 (HNL to PHX) which normally flies over the LA area about same time as the incident. I can’t get the track of yesterday’s flight track (it can be done I just don’t know how) but I did get today’s track which flew just south of Catalina Island and entered the US near Camp Pendelton.

    Todays flight left HNL at 10:14 AM HST (sked 9:55 AM) and landed at about 6:45 PM MST (5:45 PM PST). If yeaterday’s flight followed the same schedule it would have been over LA at about 5:00 PM PST.

    If someone can access historical data from Flight Aware, please let us know your results.

    Corky Boyd (d787be)

  28. Dustin you may want to use search to check out Vandenburg AFB where they launched a satellite a few days ago.

    Comment by agesilaus


    http://www.spacearchive.info/vafblog.htm

    This appears to indicate that location hasn’t been used to put something into orbit since December 2009.

    It does happen, but it’s easier to do this further south. There are a variety of reasons why I just don’t think this was a satellite than the cost, though.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  29. If you look at that CBS news report, they mention contacting Vandenberg and finding out that there was a recent launch of an Italian satellite, indeed here is part of the press release:

    “11/5/2010 – VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. —
    Vandenberg launched a Delta II rocket carrying the Thales Alenia Space-Italia
    COSMO-SkyMed Satellite, Friday, Nov.5, at 7:20 p.m. from Space Launch Complex-2
    on North Vandenberg. ”

    There is another launch in early December. Vandenberg is use for polar orbit launches where the equator mean nothing. The delta v from using an equatorial launch is only 1000 mph comparewd to a polar launch site. KSC isn’t as far south as you think it is either, its around 29 degrees N latitude.

    BK

    agesilaus (805931)

  30. KSC isn’t as far south as you think it is either, its around 29 degrees N latitude.

    I’m sorry, but I don’t know what you’re talking about. It’s not optimal, but it’s the best we can do in the continental US. I didn’t say it was on the equator… I said it was closer than Los Angeles. I’m right… it’s a lot closer.

    Vandenberg is use for polar orbit launches where the equator mean nothing.

    It means a lot, actually. As you note, it’s about 1,000 mph of difference (915 mph from the tip of Florida) Vandenburg is not where this missile would have come from, anyway, as it’s not located off the coast of Catalina island.

    The reason that facility is used for polar launches is not because the ‘equator doesn’t matter’, but because it matters quite a bit. That facility is close to as south as we could put a launch facility on the West coast (a polar orbit launch from Vandenburg means it won’t overfly populated areas, since the Earth spins West to East). You pay some speed penalty, in exchange for safety. When you are talking about a launch from the water, that changes the entire issue because you can go further south.

    I’m not sure why you keep mentioning Vandenburg. If this was some kind of at-sea launch of a satellite, I just don’t see why it would be in that location for a variety of reasons. It’s just not a likely explanation.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  31. As you note, it’s about 1,000 mph of difference (915 mph from the tip of Florida)

    Compared to the pole. Sorry if I was unclear.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  32. Comment by Christoph — 11/9/2010 @ 6:02 pm

    Bah. I have it on good authority that it was a Vogon surveyor ship. Where did I put my towel?

    Rusty Bill (ca7b34)

  33. You can simulate it for yourself with a tea kettle (the kind with the little hole that whistles). Boil your water, turn off the lights in the kitchen and use a focused flashlight (MagLite, frex) on the steam. You can create the same effect.

    Comment by Rusty Bill

    Thanks for the idea. I like this sort of kitchen experimenting with kids.

    I’m glad a lot of reasonable people are saying this seems to be an airplane.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  34. Canaveral is at 28-27N, and LAX is at 33-56N, the difference is 329NM+/-.
    If this was a commercial flight, the FAA would have a record of it, and would be able to ID it immediately.
    BTW, all aircraft passing over/through SoCal are required to have operating transponders, since the it is a positive control area – again, a record of all activity would be available from the FAA/ATC.
    As to a “pulsating sound” associated with a “UFO” moving at high-speed:
    In the 80’s-90’s, we would mark it down as a flight of an “Aurora Project” aircraft, which “did not” exist.

    AD-RtR/OS! (10d922)

  35. Why did they call that project the Aurora project?

    It’s interesting to me because of the comments about colorful phenomena in the sky. Almost surely just a coincidence, but perhaps this is how this project got its name, too.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  36. I don’t understand why anyone would think this was a contrail from a plane. The video is very clear that the exhaust is dense, low to ground and the flight path is upward and then over, following a classic missile/rocket firing. Where are all the other contrails if this is a scheduled flight? And why does the video show the hot exhaust after the flight path bends over, just like in a Space Shuttle launch? No, that contrail is from a solid fuel rocket motor and most definitely isn’t a contrail. I would bet my bottom dollar it is a missile intercept test and DOD is just delaying admitting to it.

    GoDad (6ed79d)

  37. I’ve got to believe that it’s a an airplane contrail, most likely one going to/from the Hawaiian Islands to an inland airport such as Phoenix, Denver, Dallas, etc. Almost everyone of these flights go over a navigation station (VOR) located at the west end of Los Angeles airport before picking up an over ocean routing.

    A Boeing 747 can put out an enormous contrail when conditions are right and the reason it seems to disappear over land is because the sun is no longer hitting it.

    I may be completely wrong but as a former Air Traffic Controller (20 years) I have watched my share of airplanes.

    Don (5b6e2f)

  38. Why would the DOD delay admitting a missle test? First of all, a missle in flight is not easy to hide. You would have to have an IQ smaller than your shoe size to believe that a missle launch in that location could be kept secret. If it was a government missle, there is no way that the flight could be kept secret. Too many people are involved. If it was a missle launched from a foreign sub, why would any forgein power do such a thing? I doubt if any foreign sub could get that close, come to launch depth and launch a missle without being located. The chances of that sub getting away is close to zero.

    Longwalker (996c34)

  39. OK, I’m late to the party, but here’s my two cents.

    I was perfectly willing to believe the event was actually caused by jet engine condensation…until I saw the video above.

    This doesn’t look like any jet trail I’ve ever seen. As someone above mentioned, there’s always a lag between the trailing edge of the engines and the start of the condensation. Not in this video.

    No way is this a commercial airliner, but I’ll leave open the possibility that some prototype military plane was involved with an exotic engine. The close-up revealed no apparent wings, but that might be explained by an equally exotic “lifting body” type of fuselage.

    But, really, to me it looks exactly like the exhaust coming from a solid-rocket booster. The various colors are explainable by the sunset and the curvature of the earth’s shadow darkening the trail.

    Also, as rockets climb higher into the thinning atmosphere, the plume of the exhaust grows outward because there’s less pressure to contain it — I wish I could say that was definitely happening, but the video is too short to see the difference in exhaust lower compared to higher. But it certainly seems like the exhaust spreads out quickly behind the engine(s).

    Bottom line — with good evidence I’m still willing to be convinced otherwise, but it sure looks like a rocket to me.

    Wunky Finkerbean (caae7c)

  40. Why would DOD delay admitting it? If it was a missile intercept test maybe they don’t want to go public with it and confirm what everyone is just speculating about…based on comments here it looks to me like it is working.

    What is strange to me is why there aren’t any comments from nautical types who had to be out on the ocean when this “thing” went off…that is the main reason I am only 99% convinced it is DOD project and not 100%.

    GoDad (6ed79d)

  41. If it was some country firing off a missile, it’s not a big deal because L.A. is a big city and these things happen.

    Christoph (8ec277)

  42. My neighbor works directly with the missile intercept project. He is VERY high up, and would be present for all tests, at Vandenberg. He is gone right now, but he is normally home. They normally launch the (target) missiles from off the coast. If it sounds like a Chinese SLBM, it might have been a special test they didn’t want too much press about, especially whether it was successful or not. I suppose I could ask him when he gets back. I’ll let you know. If he can’t talk about it, he won’t, though.

    Chris Hooten (11ee1d)

  43. Chris Hooten, come on. You sound like a child when you write this.

    “If it sounds like a Chinese SLBM, it might have been a special test they didn’t want too much press about, especially whether it was successful or not.”

    If the Chinese didn’t want too much press, they wouldn’t launch a submarine launched ballistic missile off the U.S. coastline.

    Chris, and I mean this in the kindest way possible, if that is the level of your current reasoning skills, I can understand why you’d be taken in by Brad Friedman and Co. conspiracy stories.

    He’s got a good point on paper ballots. You’re right about that. A lot of the other stuff he says is crap. Looking at what you wrote and the thinking that went into it, I don’t think you’re yet mature enough in your reasoning skills to really judge which is that.

    “I suppose I could ask him when he gets back. I’ll let you know. If he can’t talk about it, he won’t, though.”

    Yeah, obviously.

    In my last harshly worded comment to you on the cheerleader thread, I was messing with you. This one, I’m not. I mean what I wrote. I think you should consider it and also consider studying syllogistic logic itself. Many people have benefited from that.

    Christoph (8ec277)

  44. Uhmm, WE would be launching the slbm, and then testing whether we could knock it out or not. The Chinese would not be involved. it would likely be stolen missile, or a copy of one.

    Chris Hooten (11ee1d)

  45. Did you think I was suggesting the Chinese would come over and launch a missile for us to shoot down? Come on.

    Chris Hooten (11ee1d)

  46. Or that we wouldn’t be a little upset about the Chinese testing a missile off of our coast? That would probably not be the ideal place for China to test a missile, lol.

    Chris Hooten (11ee1d)

  47. “Uhmm, WE would be launching the slbm, and then testing whether we could knock it out or not. The Chinese would not be involved. it would likely be stolen missile, or a copy of one.”

    Really.

    So by:

    “If it sounds like a Chinese SLBM, it might have been a special test they didn’t want too much press about, especially whether it was successful or not.”

    You meant:

    “an American anti-ballistic missile test”

    Christoph (8ec277)

  48. Most of the missiles they have tested the interception on have not been actual missiles that would be shot at us. Maybe this was one of the first ones where they used an actual one that might need to be shot down, hence the hush-hush.

    Chris Hooten (11ee1d)

  49. yes, sorry about the confusion.

    Chris Hooten (11ee1d)

  50. Contrails.

    It’s really just a matter of perspective. The trail isn’t vertical, and the object is not going up, it is coming directly toward the viewer in those video shots – which is why the only people who thought it unusual were those in that location. People further north or south also saw it, but from their perspective it was not unusual.

    Estragon (ec6a4b)

  51. Looks/sounds like you may have seen a jet contrail after the sunset, from your POV, and at that altitude, the far west part of the contrail was still in sunlight and the trail closer to the coast was in the dusk, hence the translucent, dark blue colors as it began to disperse.

    DCSCA (9d1bb3)

  52. I’m thinking it’s Dr. Evil.

    Beldar (7aa6f6)

  53. It doesn’t look like a plane, look at the angle of the trail, and that trail can’t be dismissed as dissipating. I live near an air port, we get some pretty vivid sunsets as we live right by the coast, and I’ve NEVER seen a contrail that looks like that in my life.

    I too am troubled by the game of “I dunno” by our military, alternating with the inferences that it’s a “plane”. That nonsense is no more credit worthy than balloon boy’s parents’ claims.

    Frankly, given our having every right not to trust the insane people in the executive branch, it’s more important than ever for the US citizenry to be able to know we can TRUST our military, that it hasn’t abandoned it’s oath to uphold the US constitution and defend the US citizenry and the United States of America.

    jenny (090eb0)

  54. To test a anti-missle system off a populous coast and expect to keep it secret is the mark of a candidate for “dumb, dunber & dumbest.” To expect that all the levels of oversight involved in the “test” were exclusively populated by successful candidates for “dumb, dumber & dumbest” is stretching a point. Whatever it was, it was not a “secret’ test. Nor wasit an”accidnt.’ in the case of an “accidental” launch, the launcher’s one and only option would be to notify higher command imediately. There are too many people involved in even an “accidental” launch to make a “cover-up” possible. It will help to think through any theory before commenting.

    Longwalker (4e0dda)

  55. There’s a picture of a translucent blue contrail, here:

    http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=37935&mid=558045

    Andrew (e0a055)

  56. Frankly, given our having every right not to trust the insane people in the executive branch, it’s more important than ever for the US citizenry to be able to know we can TRUST our military, that it hasn’t abandoned it’s oath to uphold the US constitution and defend the US citizenry and the United States of America.

    Frankly, that is an insult to the million or so uniformed people who volunteer to serve and put their lives on the line to protect everyone’s freedom.
    If the military spokespeople are not telling everything they know it is probably for classified reasons related to their ability/technology to track and identify.
    As an example some 35 years ago civilian malcontent who worked for the NSA sold the details of a highly classified satellite being used on the Russians and Chinese. Read “The Falcon and the Snowman” if you want details. It was a brilliant concept and a billion dollar program made useless for a few hundred dollars by this person.
    Point is that some things are really classified for good reason.

    VOR2 (c9795e)

  57. Got it:

    It’s a bolide, a really big chunk of space debris traveling through the atmosphere.

    Lazarus Long (40ce85)

  58. I’m sure the DoD knows exactly what this was and is pretending ignorance to protect the knowledge. Better laughed at then dis-armed.

    The colors I would guess came from the refracting rays of the sunset. What the object was we small people will probably not know unless its repetition leads to disaster.

    Wondering (d9ad9c)

  59. Most likely it was a missile test that ordinarily would go largely unnoticed, but recent cool temperatures made the vapor trail readily observable from the mainland.

    Note the location of San Nicholas Island about 75 miles west of LA and about 65 miles southwest of Point Mugu Naval Air Weapons Station.

    San Nicholas Island is just under 23 square miles but has a 10,000 foot runway, capable of supporting front line military aircraft, including the C-5. Additionally, the Naval weapons training facility is home to state-of-the-art radar and telemetry facilities. The Navy island is an integral part of Point Mugu’s Pacific Missile Range. It’s location is nearly ideal for conducting classified operations. Nothing significant moves anywhere within hundreds of miles they don’t have under a magnifying glass.

    San Nicholas Island has it’s own missile launch complex capable of launching a wide range of missiles, including Vandal target missiles. Moreover, the facilities include remote control of a special unmanned Self Defense Test Ship (SDTS) with Sea Sparrow, RAM, and CIWS* defense systems linked to automatic target acquisition systems. The SDTS provides an open ocean test facility for automatic detection and near instantaneous response to threats without endangering the crew of a manned ship.

    My best guess is that a test missile launch happened to be observed only because of fortuitous atmospheric conditions. Naval operations at Point Mugu and on San Nicholas Island are almost always classified and are likely to remain so. Don’t expect the authorities to release any information, they may but it isn’t the way they usually operate.

    * Sea Sparrow is a short range radar homing missile used against attack from aircraft and anti-ship cruise missiles. It’s similar to the Air Force’s AIM-7 air-to-air missile.

    RAM (Rolling Airframe Missiles) are infrared homing ship defense missiles.

    CIWS (Close-in Weapons Systems) usually indicates radar guided Phalanx guns.

    ropelight (ee076e)

  60. Andrew,

    That color is pretty similar. What I saw was darker but that is explainable by the light at sunset.

    The difference is that the picture you link is clearly a contrail, with a wispy and uneven look. What I saw did not have that unevenness, that I noticed anyway.

    Patterico (c218bd)

  61. Comment by Longwalker

    I agree that it doesn’t seem to be wise to conduct a test of this kind so close to major metropolitan areas if it was ours. I’m not saying that with any special knowledge of the subject, but the Pacific Ocean is a big place to do a test farther away from major population areas.

    I agree that it is hard to keep some things classified that are on a huge scale, at least forever, but lots of things involving many, many military folks are not known publically. If this was an “accident” or a Chinese launch, the number of people who had direct knowledge by looking at radar screens, etc. would be how many? Hundreds or less? Eventually there would be quite a few in the chains of command that would know, officials in Congress, etc., but unless they wanted it released they should be able to keep it a secret, I would think.

    VOR2- I wouldn’t take that comment as an insult to US forces, and I assume that the military and other branches of the government have plenty of secrets they keep for good reason. The fact that we expect them to keep secrets is why we need to be able to trust them. I don’t think the comment was about the US military at all, it was about the civikian leadership in the WH.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  62. Comment by ropelight

    Thank you for that information. So you’re saying that solid-fuel rockets might be launched in that area somewhat “frequently” but that they typically are not visible to casual observers?

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  63. BTW, you can offer them Berkeley, they don’t want US military protection anyway.

    And besides which, they’re already all communists, so they’ll fit right in…

    :^D

    Beavis (9eeb86)

  64. I don’t think the comment was about the US military at all, it was about the civikian leadership in the WH.

    Comment by MD in Philly — 11/10/2010 @ 6:47 am

    MD,
    Point taken.

    VOR2 (8e6b90)


  65. If it was a missile launched from a foreign sub, why would any foreign power do such a thing? I doubt if any foreign sub could get that close, come to launch depth and launch a missile without being located. The chances of that sub getting away is close to zero.

    One should be really careful about speculation about what is possible, likely, or motivating behind an action such as that you suppose.

    Let’s see, just one possible argument that counters your claim:

    Suppose someone has a new “stealth” sub that is invisible to US detection methods, leading to:
    a) A proof of concept test by the nation in question
    -or-
    b) A not-so-subtle warning by said nation to the USA to be careful about being too cocky.

    Sending “subtle” messages is not uncommon in politics. One might recall the “accidental” bombing of the French Embassy in Libya back in 1986 — or the “accidental” bombing raid that struck a Chinese embassy in Belgrade back in 1999… In both cases, the USA was substantially unhappy with the nations in question for various reasons.

    I certainly would not presume other nations are incapable of the same sort of behavior.

    IgotBupkis, President, United Anarchist Society (9eeb86)

  66. It’s unusual that there’s no clear cut explanation.

    For contrails to persist and spread out, certain atmospheric conditions must be present, not just cold.

    There’s a website out of Wyoming which lists the radiosond readings from weather stations. The closest one to LA seems to be in San Diego, a bit over 100 miles away. There didn’t seem to be enough relative humidity to account for the size of the plume.

    A Patrick Minnis of NASA has been at the forefront making jokes about anyone thinking there could be weather modification going on. The internet term is chemtrails. The problem with the term is it asks for ridicule. If you don’t believe me, google the word and check out the nonsense.

    I am what is referred to as a chemmie, one who believes that not all contrails are contrails.

    You can find my blog on that topic along with some other stuff you might be into through my blogger profile.

    Barium has colour properties of purple and also green. Carbon has also been used in weather modification.

    I am not saying I have a definitive answer to what this recent event was about. I do think we can assume one of two things. It was either a missile or rocket test. Or it was a plume generated by aircraft and not by a regular guy airplane, if you know what I mean.

    What I don’t go along with is the idea that the ptb’s are unsure what happened. I think they know exactly what took place.

    For whatever reasons, they are letting the blogosphere run around like chickens with their heads chopped off. Or maybe that’s with roosters. I don’t know the answer to that digression either.

    Some weather dude in the Pacific Northwest, dorget the stste, he showed a weather band of clouds and definitely declared he had been in the military and he knew for sure it was a result of military chaff.

    You guys might for the most part not believe there is man-made global warming. However, I find it difficult to think many believe there is not climate change.

    These guys want full spectrum dominance. That includes the weather. Climate change has been declared an issue of national security. Geoengineering has been pushed the last few years as something to consider.

    One thing myself and Patterico agreed to in an email is that it’s the truth that matters. I am not a conspiracy nut. The easy way out is to call someone that name. I do it myself, because certainly there are a lot of whackjob ideas floating on the internet.

    Nonetheless, I stand by what I have just written. NASA and Patrick Minnis put a lot of time and effort into trying to persuade masses of people that cirrus aviaticus is mostly the result of ordinary aircraft. But they have never proven that. It wouldn’t be that tough to do. Instead of ridiculing people, they could have filmed and documented whenever so-called “chemtrail” events have taken place, documented the atmospheric conditions, and put the thing to rest once and for all.

    That they haven’t tells me that they are unable to prove something that isn’t true.

    This is a big event that just took place. If this was a missile or rocket going off, these people need to come clean.

    The kind of plume that emerged is nothing new. I’ve seen some crazy ass trails like that before planted into clear blue sky, i.e. where there was no humidity.

    My guess is whatever created that plume, rocket, missile, or aircraft, it was done as a test of some sorts. Whoever did it was acting under the auspices of national security. I doubt another country was responsible for it. That’s my opinion.

    I think it’s very telling that Patterico has received visitors from all those alphabet companies. That to me is a big hint that this thingie was not meant to hit major media. Patterico deserves some kidos for being a regular guy and telling us he got those visits.

    It’ll either come out in the wash, or I think I pretty much summed up what happened in regards to how much we’ll get to know about this. There’s a lot about this country which is extremely undemocratic. Even your boy Eisenhower warned about these guys. I don’t have time to proofread this, so I hope it was an ok post. Take it easy.

    Prepostericity (5b2462)

  67. #62, MD, correct. Plus, if anyone else launched a missile in their backyard, the Navy would be on them like a duck on a June Bug. You’d see warships in Santa Monica Bay and up and down the Santa Barbara Channel, and there would be plenty of helicopters and surveillance aircraft overhead.

    They know exactly what it was. Otherwise the Navy would be showing a great deal of curiosity.

    ropelight (ee076e)

  68. The “missile” was US Airways Flight 808. See the attached link for an almost identical contrail from that flight on the next day shown on a Newport Beach webcam.

    http://blog.bahneman.com/content/it-was-us-airways-flight-808

    AlanH (94c667)

  69. The guy uncinus pushing all trails as non-deliberate contrails put out a video a few years back. He purported to show that cirrus aviaticus was formed ever since aviation picked up. But when I looked into every example he provided, they all turned out to be from military aircraft. Check out the radiosonde readings from San Diego, only 100 miles away. There wasn’t the necessary humidity. There are definitely astroturfers all over the internet. That’s probably why certain institutions are visiting this web page. Patrick Minnis used to troll at a website called Chemtrail Central. He purported to be a regular guy. He never came clean with who he was. But it emerged it was him posting as Canex. It’s been confirmed. The owner of Chemtrail Central, a crazy website, is owned by a gentleman who has worked for NASA too. He never admitted that at the dive website. I found that info at some small forum. These guys will say anything. Like the dude who wrote the article for Yahoo, he summed it up well with sarcasm. There’s nothing to see here, move along.

    Prepostericity (38af84)

  70. That person’s name above sounds familiar. I seem to recall a very similar moniker being an apologist for the Polanski child assrapist.

    JÐ (6e25b4)

  71. JD, Prepostericity is the guy whose been trying to expose Brett Kimberlin’s association with Brad Friedman.

    I think it’s an airplane that simply looked an awful lot like a missile. I don’t think the plane was dumping chemicals out, either. You’ll need a lot more information than this. This chemtrail theory has been out for ages without evidence.

    Evidence would be an airplane with a chemical tank, or a sample of chemicals from the air that could be tested by anybody. Instead, the behavior is better explained as water vapor.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  72. He also helped suss out the Kimberlin/Friedman trail, although if we didn’t have the MIC, we wouldn’t have won the bloody war

    justin cord (82637e)

  73. Oops, my bad.

    JÐ (6e25b4)

  74. If you would just stop being so racist all the time, JD.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  75. I discounted the possibility of an airplane trail because of the close proximity of LAX. So many planes have been coming and going for so many years that observers would quickly recognize the range of natural atmospheric phenomena by now.

    ropelight (0ba054)

  76. Now that Drudge picked up the link on the webcam of the flight, the webcam will get more attention.

    But (2) simple facts keep getting in the way: 1) the video was shot by experienced camera people who thought they saw a missile launch, I really have to go wtih Occam’s Razor on this one, they wouldn’t have filmed it if wasn’t so unusual and “missile” looking (including the very clear visual of a burning rocket motor indicating the missile was moving away from them) and 2) the webcam shows the normal, unremarkable “wispy” and broken up appearance of an airplane contrail…

    GoDad (6ed79d)

  77. I discounted the possibility of an airplane trail because of the close proximity of LAX. So many planes have been coming and going for so many years that observers would quickly recognize the range of natural atmospheric phenomena by now.

    Yeah, the more airplanes there are, the less likely this is to be an airplane.

    Christoph (8ec277)

  78. after watching that video and seeing absolutely no agency or gov. official attach this to a particular flight, except to tut tut this,

    I think its highly unlikely this is anything other than a missle. and it seems to have been launched from a sub.

    anyone who doesnt think so, thats fine. go back to sleep….

    rumcrook (4a9bee)

  79. The launches from Vandenburg are spectacular… they have clear stages to them and the trail loops and deflects.

    I like the view from your back yard… are the islands Catalina and San Clemente?

    SteveG (cc5dc9)

  80. I am late to this party but it must be said.
    We have Nasa. We have the US Air Force. We have all kinds of Intelligence Services. Yet 20 hours after the fact of the “Missile/Contrail” issue, no agency could provide an explanation. Behind the scenes was utter chaos with wonderment of “who” shot off a Missle. Hmmm.
    Let me help you out. The US Military was caught with their pants down, for the second time. Check the date on this article. Note 3 years to the date. Exactly.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-492804/The-uninvited-guest-Chinese-sub-pops-middle-U-S-Navy-exercise-leaving-military-chiefs-red-faced.html#ixzz1511Q4PO5
    How can this happen? OK here you go:
    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnewstt_news=37068&tx_ttnewsbackPid=7&cHash=058b05b6b8
    snip:
    The stealth submarine in question appears to be a modified version of the Type 041 Yuan-class submarine. According to military experts, the Yuan-class’s technology borrows heavily from Russian designs. The Yuan-class is reported to use a new air-independent propulsion (AIP) system based on the concept of the Swedish Stirling engine. Chinese naval research institutes are known to have been investigating fuel cell and exhaust recycling AIP designs similar to the French MESMA (Module d’Energie Sous-Marine Autonome) (Jane’s Defense Weekly, October 7; Wen Wei Po [Hong Kong], October 12).
    In closing it always amazes me how stupid educated people can be. Being a High School drop out, if I can figure it out, why can’t they.
    Waves at navy.mil in Norfolk, Virginia and Helen, Maryland, as well as nasa.gov.
    Or maybe they have *wink*

    ABC (61f81d)

  81. ABC,

    What if they can’t tell you exactly what plane it is because the video doesn’t show exactly when and where the plane was?

    If it was a plane, the radars which detected it would not trigger any special attention. You think there’s utter chaos behind the scenes because you assume a huge missile launched, triggering this panic.

    What if all that happened was a plane was shot on a video that is difficult to pinpoint?

    All these people insisting it must be a missile, and they have concretely figured out that it’s an Iranian EMP test or a Chinese sub, need to step back just a few paces.

    It looks an awful lot like a missile. Someone went ahead and shot a subsequent picture of US airways 808 the next day, and I think that’s similar enough that you should admit some doubt.

    If the Chinese are sending subs that close to our country and launching that sort of weapon, that is big news. I think we’d have investigated, in this ‘utter chaos’ maybe sent some helicopters and aircraft to drop bouys and even torpedoes.

    If this was a Naval missile test, I think there’s basically no reason at all for the subterfuge unless some accident occurred.

    China acts bold sometimes, such as the incident ABC links or their ASAT strike a few years ago. The Navy makes mistakes sometimes. So maybe it’s a missile after all. But maybe it’s just an Airplane and the government doesn’t have the ability to say which without more precision about the video.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  82. I saw another contrail like this the very next day, only it was south of Catalina. I definitely was not an airplane contrail which I see all the time. Because the same thing apparently happened the next day, I believe it’s something our military is doing. I don’t think foreign subs could get away with something iike this two days in a row. At least I hope not.

    joanbob (67b4f4)

  83. Because the same thing apparently happened the next day, I believe it’s something our military is doing.

    That’s a reasonable guess.

    I think it’s either a military event of some kind (an accident or a test) or it’s just a very good illusion from an airplane.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  84. I meant either OUR military or an airplane. I think it’s easy to rule out Chinese sub or Iranian cargo ship.

    Dustin (b54cdc)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.4619 secs.