Remember: they’re more impressive if you make them before they happen.
Me, I’m saying nothing more specific than this: we will crush them.
P.S. I will try to start a live chat sometime this evening, which I won’t be able to monitor closely or participate in much — but which should allow interested readers a chance to talk to each other in real time.
Pronounced "Patter-EE-koh"
E-mail: Just use my moniker Patterico, followed by the @ symbol, followed by gmail.com
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House – 247
Senate – 50-50
And in a best-case scenario, Lieberman opts to caucus with the Republicans, making it 51-49.
The Departed (d027b8) — 11/2/2010 @ 6:57 amBuffalo Bills 28 Chicago Bears 12. Oh sorry you wanted election predications.
R’s House +40
R’s Senate +6
I hope I am low.
BT (74cbec) — 11/2/2010 @ 6:58 amFirst, Louisiana will have a Republican? loss….Joseph Cao will lose to Cedric Richmond (who lied about his address when running for an office several years ago, and was censured by the Bar), but we’ll return Vitter to the Senate.
Second, 71 House seats, 10 (yes, the big 10) Senate seats….
Republicans, don’t blow it!
reff (176333) — 11/2/2010 @ 6:59 am77 House(yeah a bit safe), 11 Senate, Not-Dims 28 Governorships.
Superfreak incommunicado until in the air winging to Far East for Imperial Promenade. We can only hope this will be a sufficient valedictory.
In two weeks Dim devastation will transform to seething contempt(rage to follow). Perhaps an august pillar will be drafted to humbly counsel sepuku.
But any augury telegraphs a terrible reign of the Black Death for Dims.
gary gulrud (790d43) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:02 amJust wondering what kind of mayhem erupts if conservatives don’t get the super-duper majorities they expect.
JEA (4ddf0a) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:03 amConservatives generally riot when thwarted in their preferences.
Eric Blair (dcced2) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:04 amI’d like to say that that’s the silliest thing you’ve said JEA, but its probably only the fourth or fifth silliest.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:05 amI’ll put out my prediction I made a couple weeks ago:
55-65 House seats
8-12 Senate seats
9-10 Governorships
500-600 state legislature seats
I suspect my House prediction may be on the low side, my Senate prediction is broad enough to be an almost lock at “safe”, my Governor prediction will need a bit of help from the wave, and the legislatures… I just saw a couple places talking about that so I figured I’d throw it in blindly.
John Hitchcock (9e8ad9) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:09 amHouse R pick up 61
Senate R pick up 7
Surprises
VOR2 (8e6b90) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:10 amOD loses by 20 points
Murkowski loses to Miller in a squeaker, results not official for a few days
Right you are, SPQR. Though it does take effort to crack the top 5.
House – 55. Senate – 8. I blame racism.
Recurrent themes will be temper tantrum, racism, voter suppression and intimidation, Diebold, and angry backlash.
JD (77596e) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:10 amLast time I got Obama’s percentage of the popular vote right to one decimal place. Probably won’t replicate that.
Senate: 49 R
House: 233 R
Coons blows out Not a Witch.
Angle defeats Reid.
Brown beats Whitman. (Boo!)
Boxer defeats Fiorina.
Miller wins in Alaska
Rubio wins – and it’s not close – in Florida
Lincoln Chafee squeaks out the governorship in R.I.
Tom “Too mentally unbalanced to serve; perfect for politics” Tancredo comes close but comes just short in Colorado.
Florida governorship goes to Scott (this is the toughest race to call of all of them.)
All educated guesses; we’ll see how it goes.
–JRM
JRM (cd0a37) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:11 amOne other surprise imo Vitter wins but much closer than expected.
VOR2 (8e6b90) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:11 amThe cynic in me: Carly Fiorina will have appeared to eke out a win over Barbara Boxer by midnight Pacific Time. Out of the 8.2 million votes cast, Fiorina will be showing 3.945 million to Boxer’s 3.938 million, with the rest going to other party candidates. The Dems will then go into the recount process and suddenly “discover” an uncounted 20,000 net votes for Boxer, putting her over the top. Republicans will cry foul, but (with no help forthcoming from either Jerry Brown’s Attorney General Office or Eric Holder’s Justice Department) will end up losing in court when Anthony Kennedy makes Laurence Tribe’s wildest dreams come true and is convinced by Elena Kagan to accept the questionable ending in a 5-4 decision written by Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
The consolation prize is that Harry Reid tries the same stunt in Nevada, but Democrats are so anxious to get rid of him that the party machinery declines to participate and allows Angle’s victory to stand.
JVW (eccfd6) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:49 amIn the spirit of JEA, I predict a lot more of this… http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/checker.aspx?v=hdSU8znz8z
No matter who wins, we will never ever ever hear the end of liberal blathering about Republican Caused Disasters.
Gesundheit (cfa313) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:51 amAmen, Gesundheit.
JD (77596e) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:57 amHouse: GOP +71, take control
Senate: GOP +10, take control (Raese and Rossi seal the deal)
In California, Dems sweep top of ballot (Brown, Boxer) but by closer margins than expected. Fiorina/Boxer is especially close. Steve Cooley wins the AG race, becoming the top elected GOP official statewide.
By December Loretta Sanchez will be circulating her last Christmas card on the taxpayers’ dime, with her dressed as the (wo)Man With No Name riding a horse off into the sunset. Oh, and with her cat on the horse as well.
Also, I predict McConnell will face a interparty challenge from Tea Party backed Senators over his tacit support of Muircrowsky’s write in campaign.
Sean P (6f6c60) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:06 amOh just shoot me….!
The Emperor (9f7f60) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:08 amHouse – R+67 (B-B-B-Barney, bye-bye!)
lostingotham (980102) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:09 amSenate – R+10 (including Nevada, California and Washington, but not Delaware and, sadly, not West Virginia (we’ll have to wait until after the corruption trials for that))
House (R)+651, (D)-322
Torquemada (a8a9b2) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:14 amSenate (R)+134, (D)+1
I’m going to be conservative (get it?) and predict a nine seat gain in the Senate, and a 55 seat gain in the House.
Just wondering what kind of mayhem erupts if conservatives don’t get the super-duper majorities they expect.
We’ll get on with our lives, not like the pathetic losers in my hood who kept their Kerry/Edwards signs up on their front lawns over a year after the election. You should have seen the faces of the El commuters the morning after the election – you’d have thought someone had just killed their dog. Absolutely infantile.
Dmac (ad2c6a) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:16 amThere will be at least two senate races undeclared until at least Thursday (WA, AK) and shenanigans will give the WA race to Murray.
Shumer new majority leader. God help us.
Brown and Boxer win.
Overall, GOP +58 in House and +8 in Senate.
Ed from SFV (c16c43) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:17 amHouse GOP +68, Senate GOP +8.
Expect a round of AlFrankensteinian cheating-by-litigation in the WA and NV senate races if Rossi and/or Angle win by anything remotely resembling a close margin. Even 49 is too close for the Dems to cede without a gutter brawl and manufactured votes, as a single defection to the GOP would then leave them gutted in Congress.
Tully (62151d) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:24 amLiebermann won’t defect – he couldn’t get re-elected if he did – but Nelson might.
aphrael (9802d6) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:25 amHouse +57, Senate +8.
Brown, Fiorina, Newsom, Cooley win.
19 fails. 23 fails. 21 passes. 25 passes.
aphrael (9802d6) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:27 amDeeDee win a write in campaign in NY23
all the other races are problematic
EricPWJohnson (2d1c68) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:28 am25.DeeDee wins a write in campaign in NY23
all the other races are problematic
Comment by EricPWJohnson — 11/2/2010 @ 8:28 am
EricPWJohnson (2d1c68) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:29 amAphrael – if 23 passes is that a vote to destroy California’s economy. What does a yes vote mean on that one?
JD (77596e) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:30 amSenate 52r
House 238r
At least 2 months later a Democrat Sen switched partys
EricPWJohnson (2d1c68) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:31 amonly local crushings, sry Patterico.
wheeler's cat (2db2db) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:32 amcellphone penetration cannot be modelled nationally.
watch Colorado.
Buck and Tancredo will lose, and 62 will lose.
youth has cells– blacks and browns have cells– liberals have cells– urbans have cells.
That Liebermann guy is such a wiesel.
The Emperor (9f7f60) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:32 amJD: a ‘yes’ vote on 23 is a vote to suspend AB32’s implementation until unemployment hits a sufficiently low level for a sufficiently long period of time.
It is going to fail.
aphrael (9802d6) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:33 amHouse +8
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:34 amSenate +1
Christoph: brave man, predicting that all of the polls are just wrong.
aphrael (9802d6) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:37 amA brand name that is remembered is a brand name that wins in the marketplace—and possibly the polling place. Lisa Merriam, naming consultant to Fortune 500 companies, conducted a fast survey of top-of-mind associations with candidate names in the 2010 House and Senate races. Here find race-by-race name analysis and winning predictions: http://bit.ly/ad2ydC
Lisa Merriam (b711c1) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:38 amHouse 224; Senate 47. Republicans take the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and keep the state Senate, win the gubernatorial election; Lou Barletta beats Rep Paul Kanjorski and Pat Toomey completes the defeat of Arlen Specter by beating Joe Sestak, though by a very narrow margin.
The Dana in Pennsylvania (3e4784) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:38 amRepublicans pick up 45 seats in the House of Representatives.
Republicans pick up 8 seats in the Senate.
In 2011, Senate Democrats will attempt to change the vote necessary for cloture to 55.
Some chump (4c6c0c) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:38 amThose are the only people with cell phones. Nishidiot is astonishingly stupid, even for her. This is a new meme of hers, soon to be discarded, and will go back to her core 8 memes.
And California’s already crippled economy with fail right along with it, huh?
JD (77596e) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:39 amJD: there’s been some good statistical analysis which shows that polls of cell-phone only voters skew substantially to the left of polls of the electorate at large, while polls of landline-only voters skew substantially to the right of polls of the electorate at large.
Nate Silver’s estimate was that this may represent a 4-5% difference in the generic ballot, but that one of the unknowns is how many of the left-leaning cellphone-only voters will actually vote.
As for California’s economy: I don’t think it will cause California’s economy to fail. Our three largest industries are agriculture, movies, and software, and they’ll be basically unaffected. (Note that most of our economic woes right now really are due to the housing bubble: there are places where property values dropped 60-70%. The people living in those places aren’t spending, and the entire construction industry is moribund).
aphrael (9802d6) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:43 amOh. I mean x 10 to the power of 2.
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:44 amRegarding this:
I just wish that the fake Sufi wouldn’t write pornography on this site.
Laughing at her pretentious and fact-free nonsense is the best medicine.
As for her “predictions,” we shall see. But as before, she is right and everyone else is wrong.
Eric Blair (c8876d) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:48 amComment by aphrael — 11/2/2010 @ 8:43 am
You left out an important demo on polling:
AD-RtR/OS! (8fae76) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:54 amThose that refuse to respond to polls!
Are they Left or Right?
I know that I NEVER, EVER, respond to polls, whether by phone or mail – and get off my lawn!
I forgot to add that Obama’s old seat goes to Kirk. Epic humiliation for teh One.
Dmac (ad2c6a) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:55 amObama’s had a lot of problems with that old seat of his, hasn’t he?
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:57 amAphrael – Karl addressed this, at length, in a prior thread. So far, it is an urban myth.
JD (77596e) — 11/2/2010 @ 8:59 amAnd, I forgot to restate what I have posted before:
AD-RtR/OS! (8fae76) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:00 amA net pick-up of 70+ in the House!
Plus, I believe the anger is intense enough across the country to turn the Senate over to the GOP also.
It will be a Tsunami of Krakatoa proportions.
I predict gains will be low enough that Dems can claim a moral victory.
Gerald A (138c50) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:05 amIt is such a pet peeve of mine where people make a prediction with 70+ or whatever. A prediction is where you pick a number and we see how far you’re off.
😉
Don’t weasel out. Make a prediction!
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:08 am60 House seats
8 Senate seats
If Manchin wins, he strongly considers switching parties.
East Coast Chris (ded5f2) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:11 am256!
AD-RtR/OS! (8fae76) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:12 amGridlock is good. Very good.
JD (9bc648) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:14 amI’m expecting 65 House seats and 6 additional Senate seats, and that the Democrats will hail this as a huge victory for them. The media will push that theme for them.
It will be completely comical.
I’m then expecting Obama to be the opposite of Clinton and to bluster and pound the table and refuse to compromise his agenda. He’ll try to repeat Clinton’s successful gridlock crisis but fail to do so – without having a clue why the public won’t fall for it this time.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:17 amOff topic, I’m thinking this initiative should be introduced in every state with a voter initiative process.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:25 amHouse 245, Senate 49, 30 Governors
Y-not (5c451e) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:28 ami will be optimistic. we take both houses back. But let me go do my bit first.
Aaron Worthing (e7d72e) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:33 amOur three largest industries are agriculture, movies, and software, and they’ll be basically unaffected.
Not so. Agriculture is a small part of California’s economy. (As of 2006, before the recession hit).
Financial activities; Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; and Manufacturing
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:37 amdwarf Agriculture as a percentage of California’s GDP and employment.
As for movies and software, I don’t know how they’re accounted for, but I think movies would be a small percent of the state’s economy.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:39 amThe way most Hollywood studios compute their profit and losses on their movies, who can tell accurately what percentage they would contribute to the state’s coffers?
Obama’s had a lot of problems with that old seat of his, hasn’t he?
What makes it even sweeter is that Alexi is an old basketball playing buddy of his, but was exposed as a mob banker over the past six months. All this, and he previously ran successfully as state Treasurer predicated on his awesome financial stewardship of his family’s bank (it failed about two months ago).
Dmac (ad2c6a) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:45 amHouse +58
Senate +9
Fiorina wins
Tex Lovera (30e140) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:53 amWhitman Wins
Kasich (OH) wins
O’Donnell loses by 5 points
Reid out
Rubio wins easy
I’ll post what I posted last week on Volokh:
R +83 House, +10 Senate
House 262R 173D (one vacancy is R)
Kevin M (73dcc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:54 amSenate 51R-49D. WV and one of WA or CA.
After all, Gallup says the Republicans are about 7 points over the 1994 spread on the generic ballot. I expect the result to be larger as well.
Kevin M (73dcc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:57 amGOP will end up with 230 in the House, 49 in the Senate.
Narrative will be:
(1) GOP made substantial gains, but not as bad as many predicted, therefore Dems get a slight “moral victory”
(2) Tea Party-backed candidates generally will do well (O’Donnell notwithstanding), so their influence in the GOP will continue to remain strong. While some will rejoice at this news, it will pose a problem for the party going forward, especially in 2012.
Kman (d25c82) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:58 amPelosi predicts she remains Speaker. Kaine predicts retaining control of House and Senate.
JD (9bc648) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:09 amJD, here’s a poll which shows a substantial difference in the result between cell-phone-only and landline-only voters.
Note that the issue isn’t owning a cell phone, it’s not owning a landline.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:09 amI think we are talking past each other, aphrael. Nothing about that speaks to their likelihood to vote, their political activity, etc … Were that the case, the effect should have been profound when Teh One won in 2008, as those are the demographics that would give rise to this mythical bias. It may exist in a poL, but I have not seen that translate to the voting booth.
JD (9bc648) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:15 amR’s gain net of 76 in the house and 7 in the senate. Brown and Boxer both defeated, prop 23 wins.
Bar Sinister (d47790) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:16 amJD: oh, sure. I think I conceded when I mentioned it that, while the bias has been demonstrated to exist, its effect on elections is minimal because it depends on likelihood of voting.
I think it *might* manifest in California, because (a) California is ahead of many states in cell-phone-only adoption, and (b) Prop. 19 is a huge motivator for a class of voters who don’t usually vote. But otherwise, I think it’s unlikely to have much of an impact.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:17 amAs I’ve said for months, 70 seats added in the House and 9 seats added in the Senate, and 32 Governorships total.
Miller winning won’t be an upset, and he won’t win by a little… the puffery was meant to make a write-in seem possible, was never valid, and the pollsters have fled that analysis in order to preserve their reputations.
O’Donnell will but much closer than I claimed she would be in the primary (I said she was a mid thirties candidate at best). I’m guessing she is within 7 points of Coons. And as much as people will say O’Donnell is a collossal failure, she will actually have done shockingly well for someone with a bright red platform in a very blue state. If she brings it within 10 points, I think that’s very impressive. I also think this bodes well for the GOP in the future. Sure, this isn’t as good as Castle was predicted to do, but he was Governor for a decade and it’s not a very good comparison.
In the long run, we’re getting a differentiation in the parties over fiscal conservatism in a time of severe financial crisis. Some of the Tea Party candidates are shrill or inexperienced, but in the long run, this is a major strategic advantage. We’re going to do very well in 2012 congressional and state races.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:18 amSPQR: my friends who live in Washington state tell me that initiative wasn’t actually on their ballot. According to http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Washington_Change_the_State_Seal_Initiative,_2010, no signatures were turned in.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:24 amWe have been cell phone only for about 7 years.
JD (dd00f1) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:26 am“I’d like to say that that’s the silliest thing you’ve said JEA, but its probably only the fourth or fifth silliest.”
Dammit, I have to try harder!
JEA (4ddf0a) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:27 amaphrael, a shame.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:28 amit will pose a problem for the party going forward, especially in 2012.
“…he exclaimed, while whistling past a graveyard.”
On the contrary, the GOP leaders are now on notice that if they even feint to going back to their previous ways, they’ll be seriously challenged in their own primaries, or by a 3rd party challenge in the general election. People like Rubio and Christie are the leading proponents of exactly what principles the Tea Partiers espouse, which is why the Left and their increasingly histrionic supporters fear the most. Even Clinton and the party leaders early on recognized the long – term threat of Rubio becoming a national figure, which is why they resorted to such slimy behavior over the past few weeks in FLA. They’re dead meat now, and they know it.
Your talking points are beyond stale – they’re pathetic.
Dmac (ad2c6a) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:29 amJerry Brown whips Whitmanopoly; Boxer squeaks out a win over Fiorina; Prop. 19 goes up in smoke.
DDT (fe485c) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:29 amComment by JD — 11/2/2010 @ 10:26 am
See, we always knew you were a “card carrying” Radical Leftist!
AD-RtR/OS! (8fae76) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:30 amI predict the voters will be “angry.”
happyfeet (a55ba0) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:34 amOther prediction: The state of “Rhode Island and Providence Plantations” will not change its name to the much simpler “Rhode Island”.
Which is good, because the old name is awesome.
Kman (d25c82) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:35 amI prefer to refer to it as being a tech junkie, but thtat may very well make me a radical leftist. The transformation is slow.
JD (dd00f1) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:35 amWe have been cell phone only for about 7 years.
I’ve been cell phone only for about that long. And since at least 2000, my cell phone has been my main phone. Among the advantages, I get almost no calls from telemarketers.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:42 amThat makes you a radical leftist,Brother Bradley.
JD (dd00f1) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:46 amYes. They will have had a “tantrum” of “ignorance”.
Is the speed of landline cancellation really increasing lately?
My impression has been that the major change has been from normal cell phone to smart phone, and the major shift away from landlines took place several years ago. You’re pushed to do it by the telemarketers. Or maybe I’m just out of touch,but I presume the polls have tried very hard to deal with this issue.
My concern for polls is that people are proud to say they are Tea Partiers and perhaps not as proud to proclaim their democrat support… this is the converse of the Bush era and may mean the right is overpolling a bit.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:48 amHairy Reed beaten so badly it raises welts on his ENTIRE FAMILY!
mojo (8096f2) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:51 amDustin – your concerns should be answered quite clearly, starting in about 4-5 hours.
JD (dd00f1) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:54 amPrediction?
Yes, prediction.
PAIN.
Patrick (a78666) — 11/2/2010 @ 10:59 amHouse: +70R
Senate: +9R
I’d go higher but it’s tough to predict how bad the fraud will be.
Dustin,
Not so sure about the “pride” arg re proclaiming one’s sympathies to the tea party (depends on the immediate audience, really).
But the difficulty of getting a representative sampling in the age of cell ph’s is prob real. Note tho that it’s the younger, skews-Dem demographic that has more often ditched their landlines entirely in favor of mobiles, so if anything, wouldn’t that cause ph samplings to over-represent D’s?
ras (b7f440) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:02 amJonah Goldberg at the Corner posted this email from a reader (with the caveat of no way to verify):
” I am working outside the polls in the 11th CD in northern Virginia. We handed a lady in her 70s a sample GOP ballot and she said that while she is a Democrat she is voting for the Republican because, “I don’t like what is going on”.
The Dem poll worker overheard what she said and asked the lady what she didn’t like. Although I did not hear what the lady said I did notice that the Dem worker proceeded to pack up her things and left for the day.”
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:03 amTurnout for the right is going to be amazing this year.
You can’t flip the channel three times without someone questioning your sanity or intelligence about some basic issues that the dems and non-Tea Party GOP have been blatantly wrong about. It’s been that way for some time.
When I call someone insane, it’s a dismissal of their issues. It feels as though the left is dismissing politics this year. The left isn’t overtly fighting for higher deficits or opposing the Tea Party’s aims. Many of them think they already got what they want in Obamacare or stimulus.
The writing is on the wall for the meme of the next two years, and it is to split the GOP as much as possible. Obama is not capable of making the work. I predict he’ll fight back in a rigid and polarizing manner, and the GOP will look relatively consistent.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:03 amthe speed of landline cancellation is really increasing lately Mr. Dustin
it’s having a pronounced impact on on what’s called CATI marketing research (computer assisted telephone interviewing) … especially among already hard-to-reach hispanic yoots and other yoot demographics
happyfeet (a55ba0) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:05 amGood points, ras. This is my paranoia talking, not my insight.
Assuming I’m right (which is not a very good assumption), and assuming you’re right about cell phone bias being a little higher, perhaps these factors will actually cancel eachother out a bit.
Or best, case scenario, I’m just wrong and you’re right. But some polls have been wrong in a way that favored the right more than the elections did, such as during the Lewinksi era. Is Obama as embarrassing to proclaim as Clinton was? I imagine so, but I have an active imagination.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:07 amThanks for the info, happyfeet, and good to see you around. Apologies in advance of the inevitable ‘how dare you make that damn joke’ comment I’ll try to hold in.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:08 amComment by JD — 11/2/2010 @ 10:46 am
Well, all media people are suspicious.
AD-RtR/OS! (8fae76) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:10 amUS House 277 R
US Senate 10 R
I am just guessing. It is hard to tell.
m (8d321b) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:14 amGOP +49 in House
GOP +8 in Senate (Joe Miller wins)
GOP +9 in governorships, with 2 non-Dem wins (Chafee and Tancredo). Tancredo rejoins GOP within months.
I’m less optimistic than most for the GOP in the House, because I believe the Democrats triaged effectively enough to preserve many of the seats that have just recently been becoming targets.
NickM (9d1bb3) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:15 amCao is the only GOP incumbent to lose.
Senate R + 10 (and Miller wins)
House R + 82
Tancredo, Whitman win
Northeast Elizabeth (24fc2b) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:17 amDems maintain both houses and win the majority of governorships. Al Franken gives the official Dem Party response. Holder says “Voter fraud?, What voter fraud?” Michelle Obama says this is the second time she’s proud of the US.
MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:22 amVoted! It was really uncrowded there but then the only race was for an incumbant republican named Wolf. yeah, so he must be cackling laughter right now. probably his biggest threat was the libertarian.
But… um… this is comment bait, big time… but is coons nervous?
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/11/02/coons-camp-expresses-turnout-worries/
take all of it with a grain of salt the size of a buick.
Aaron Worthing (e7d72e) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:23 amI believe most people are understating Republican gains this election cycle. We are looking at at least 81 House seats flipping and 11 Senate seats.
Now we need to teach our RINOs some fiscal discipline.
NJRob (3c51a7) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:25 amAwesome. That’s what I want to see. I hate it when my predictions are the threshold. If you’re right, you’ll look pretty smart.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:25 amIt is odd that I am way on the pessimistic side of the predictions.
JD (dd00f1) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:30 amAaron, oy. Even if Coons wins, the notion that he was vulnerable to O’donnell probably sends shivers down spines.
Given then treatment she’s gotten, polling bias is definitely favoring Coons in DE. No doubt about it. And their last minute surprises were boons for O’Donnell.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:31 amNot a Tancredo fan myself but despise Hickenlooper more, so I’d prefer a Tancredo victory in Colorado Governor’s race. I don’t see it however. Buck is pretty even with Bennett for the Colorado Senate seat and with good turnout here he’ll pick it up.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:38 amThat’s what I said to my wife, and she agreed!
ras (b7f440) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:39 am69 seats in the house
9 senate
Lord Nazh (821ae1) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:49 amNickM: I expect Djou to lose, even if no other Republican Congresspeople do.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:55 amMan, you all will get pissed big time when you find that Pelosi and Reid keep their jobs! The American may be fed up with Obama but they’re not fool enough to hold out the keys to the loony right! This you’ll find much helpful, get some while the drugstore’s still open.
Triumph (0692b1) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:55 amTriumph the insult idiot is nothing if not predictable.
JD (206902) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:58 am“Me, I’m saying nothing more specific than this: we will crush that guy Truman.” – Thomas E. Dewey, November 2, 1948.
Triumph (0692b1) — 11/2/2010 @ 11:59 amHouse +60
Senate +10 (counting Lieberman switch)
At least two races won’t be known when the Congress convenes.
Give to Project Valor-IT, please; I’d prefer the Marine Team, of course, but that’s my blood, not yours.
htom (412a17) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:00 pmJD, please buy some. You’ll need it, and so will your pals.
Triumph (0692b1) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:00 pmWith Coons’s worries about low turnout, we might be looking at a win for O’D.
The Departed (d027b8) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:01 pmMDinPhilly: your prediction is depressing. I hope it was sarcasm.
House: +48 R
Senate: +8 R
Governor: +21 R
It’s low because I don’t trust the graveyard voters.
PatAZ (9d1bb3) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:03 pmCare to place a bet on that, triumph? Put your money where your big fat obnoxious mouf is. If the Dems retain both chambers, I donate $100 to the charity of your choice. If they do not, you donate $100 to Patterico.
JD (206902) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:05 pmDustin
I am trying not to get cocky, but… just read campaign spot and battle 10 at at NRO.
Like here is one:
> The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.
as for COD, wouldn’t it be hilarious if Gawker got her elected?
But seriously check out both blogs, keep scrolling. and then try to curb your enthusiasm.
Aaron Worthing (e7d72e) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:06 pmThe proof of the pudding is in the eatin’. And the proof of the polling is the election itself.
So its not impossible that Triumph is correct and that the Democrats will retain the House.
There is however, no real credible reason to believe that, the Democrats themselves do not believe it, and so once again one can only conclude that Triumph is engaging is moronic trolling.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:08 pmO’Donnell is sent home. Miller goes back to his cavern. Angle takes the big stick. Dems keep the Senate, the House. GOP still in the wilderness. Obama now certain to be re-elected. JD, Dustin and other thank me for the good advice I gave them.
Triumph (0692b1) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:08 pmTriumph, how do you feel about Coons’s campaign seeing weakness on election day? We’re past the point of polls now, and they are uncomfortable in a deep blue state.
Can Obama beat Palin in Delaware? This is a pretty good proxy. We are living through what will be major history.
It was shocking when the GOP overperformed the 25 seat House gains predictions in 1994. We more than doubled poll performance because we were unified by Clinton and universal healthcare. We won’t win every race I’d like, but no doubt about it, a few democrats will lose who were thought to be completely safe.
And this is for you, too. The new Republicans will try to make your country better for you and your family, too.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:11 pmI’ve got a better bet: Democrats lose control of the House and Triumph never comments here again.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:11 pmDems keep the House? Not even Maddow thinks they’ll keep the House.
Exactly much koolaid have you been drinking there, buddy?
The Departed (d027b8) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:12 pmThat makes you a radical leftist,Brother Bradley.
If all radical leftists voted like me, nary a Dem would win in California.
I did vote for Dave Jones, a D, for insurance commissioner, (to keep out Mike Villiar), but otherwise voted only for Rs and Ls in partisan races.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:14 pmDustin —
And this is for you, too. The new Republicans will try to make your country better for you and your family, too.
All they’re concerned about is the money their corporate buddies pour in their pockets. Ah, and nuking Iran, too. Sorry if I’m not thankful.
Triumph (0692b1) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:15 pmJust what I expected.
JD (9bc648) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:15 pmJD,
Trolls putting their money where their mouth is? But that would mean they’d have to believe their own words. C’mon!
ras (b7f440) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:16 pmTriumph’s going to be upset if all the Democrat-bailed out banks and financial firms like Citicorp don’t get their regular money teats refilled.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:16 pmIt’ll be sad in a way. Delaware deserved a better process, and could have had one. Slurring her while keeping her ad buried has an effect helping her, but it’s still sad.
But yeah, mostly just hilarious.
Aaron, you’re not being cocky to see the clear picture. Taking the House is a sure thing, and I’d pay 100:1 to anyone willing to bet against it.
Maybe Triumph is just clever GOP GOTV? If he’s seriously trying to demoralize us, he hasn’t thought his cunning plan through.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:17 pmNever mind those races, SPQR; how are you voting on the UFO issue?
Some chump (4c6c0c) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:19 pmActually, Corporate PAC money favored the Dems this cycle.
The Departed (d027b8) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:20 pmI know, but I think a lot of democrats (as in, serious ones who aren’t jerk-offs like you, no offense) should reconsider the Tea Party.
We really can set aside a lot of our differences to restore fiscal sanity. Obama and Pelosi level spending amounts to a defacto repeal of social security and other benefit programs, a massive inflation tax, and decline for our kids’ country.
The GOP and the Dems have been parts of the problem, but mostly it’s on democrats and independents (who supported Obama in 2008) to join the Tea Party and focus on balancing the budget for a while. They are the true heroes today. Remember that as race after race goes red. It was people who changed their mind that made it happen. Us conservatives had a lot less to do with it.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:20 pmDustin – triumph is not a very cunning linguist.
JD (9bc648) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:21 pmAh, tomorrow…
“Two more years of those bloody dems, I can’t believe it.” – Dustin
“I don’t understand what happened. I’m sure it’s fraud; Adolf Obama has learned his Chicago tricks well.” – Aaron Worthing
“Pelosi smiling… Disgusting… Reid 68/32… Makes me bleech” – SPQR
“Where is Lee Harvey when one needs him? This country is becoming a dictatorship, and BHO must be stopped at all costs before he turns the USA into the USSR…” – Dmac
“Hey, where is JD?” – Brother Bradley Fikes
“Can’t type with this upon my hands” – JD
Triumph (0692b1) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:22 pmHi Dustin how are you… I’m still sorta in my grumpy place so I haven’t been out and about on the internet very much
happyfeet (a55ba0) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:23 pmTriumph’s been celebrating Prop 19 early.
Some chump, I’m not in Denver city limits.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:25 pmDamn straight.
Obama’s the paragon of the BP/Goldman Sachs/Millionaire aristocrat politician.
These people hate Sarah Palin more than Rachel Maddow. When multimillion dollar rallies and campaigns try to convince people the other guy is the corporate stooge… only a moron doesn’t smirk back.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:25 pmbtw, in my district, there was practically no wait to vote. but then i have an incumbant republican who is sailing through as a representative, and no senate election (dang it!)
Aaron Worthing (e7d72e) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:25 pmCoons 60/40
Triumph (0692b1) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:27 pmBoxer 58/42
dustin
you are right that voting as a backlash is a cruddy way to pick a senator. but on the other hand…
its a good way to stop idiots like gawker from doing this in the future. if she wins this, they might actually realize it is their fault and stop doing this kind of crap.
and mostly it would be frickin’ hilarious.
Aaron Worthing (e7d72e) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:27 pmI’m well, thanks for asking. Hope you’re doing great too. I figure we’ll all be doing a lot better tonight.
Lee Harvey… he had politics like Rev Wright and murdered a guy who had politics like George W. Considering that does taper my joy today. America has moved to the left drastically since JFK’s days. Time to roll up our sleeves and fix it, starting with a House victory greater than any in a century.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:30 pmmore news making it hard for me not to get cocky, or overly hopeful.
> Shawn McCoy, a spokesman for Linda McMahon, tells Battle ‘10 he’s hearing the same things about turnout in Connecticut: It’s higher in Republican areas and lower in Democratic ones. “I think that having those two congressional races over there [in the fourth and fifth districts] — having them be close and having them drive turnout is a big boost to us,” McCoy says. “We’re seeing good turnout in precincts all across the state, especially Trumbull. I know there are some long lines there.”
…..
> “Linda has proven to be a strong candidate,” McCoy says. “I think this could be the biggest upset in the country tonight.”
http://www.nationalreview.com/battle10/251967/mcmahon-aide-could-be-biggest-upset-brian-bolduc
of course, the only way that is the biggest upset in the country, is if COD actually loses.
Aaron Worthing (e7d72e) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:30 pmThe dems will be going to take it big time! And Coons he will be outted and so will she be Boxer! Now we must have to preparating for Palin 2012! Drill, Baby, drill!
The Anonymous Tea-Partier (0692b1) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:30 pmDoes that mean you will accept the wager, Triumph?
JD (2b4a42) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:36 pmAaron, that would be another amazing upset.
And there will be a few amazing upsets tonight. And a few races that persist for weeks or months.
I remember in 2008 I saw huge lines in urban polling centers, and the old man in the car with me (another campaign worker) knew instantly Obama had won. You can tell, fairly accurately, based on turnout in a few places, what’s going on. That’s why democrats are sounding the alarm so early.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:36 pmHere is my prediction:
Odds that Triumph’s a cowardly p-ssy: 100%.
Just voted about an hour ago, and in the heart of all Obamaland, the polling place was…empty, save for about 15 poll workers and me and my wife. Hilarious. Even more amazing – no campaign workers around the school where we voted. There was a pizza guy giving out coupons, and I asked him how busy it’s been since the morning. He said that what I witnessed was about the same.
That’s quite awesome news; the Dems are staying home around these parts.
Dmac (ad2c6a) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:36 pmSomeone please tell “Triumph” that an obviously demented person has been posting nonsense under his/her name.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:37 pmDustin
> And there will be a few amazing upsets tonight. And a few races that persist for weeks or months.
I am guessing a huge overlap between those two as losers try to “Al Franken” their way back to winning.
Aaron Worthing (e7d72e) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:39 pmIt will going to be a uje lendslidde! Eneugh of that upity guy in the House! Gives the countries back to the ones to whose it belong!
The Anonymous Tea-Partier (0692b1) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:43 pmWhat are the recount laws in some of these states?
I’m wondering what margins are needed to avoid automatic recounts and lawsuits for recounts…
The Departed (d027b8) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:43 pmPalin prezident and Tancredo vise-prez!
The Anonymous Tea-Partier (0692b1) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:45 pmDrill, baby, drill!
Prediction: Rove guilty.
w (9df40f) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:46 pmRove has been served.
William Yelverton is on one of his soros family feedback loops. At least he is not plagiarizing today.
I am getting the feeling that this anonymous thing is pretty much a Moby.
JD (2b4a42) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:51 pmIt will going to be a uje lendslidde! Eneugh of that upity guy in the House! Gives the countries back to the ones to whose it belong!
Comment by The Anonymous Tea-Partier — 11/2/2010 @ 12:43 pm
Well, I’ll give the liberals this, they certainly have proven themselves the ones more educated about the economic issues facing this country (skip to 5:12). Heh.
My prediction is that liberals around the country, beginning with the MSNBC anchors, will begin foaming at the mouth at approx. 9:12 PM EST. And we’ll hear more wailing, gnashing of teeth, and cries of “RACISTS!” across the land than have ever been heard before.
no one you know (325a59) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:53 pmA load of nonsense, w. The press release you link to, from a ridiculously named outfit, is incoherent, fully of unsubstantiated allegations built on speculation and confuses civil and criminal proceedings.
Grow up.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:53 pmSPQR – ask Yelverton about the felony slander charges he was threatening people with.
JD (2b4a42) — 11/2/2010 @ 12:56 pmRove will just DIEBOLD! the jury again. It’s how he always beats his felony slander and capitol first degree traffic tickets.
How many times is the left going to attempt to arrest Condi or Rove? Prosecuting politics. You’ve got a sloppy Chicago democrat losing the House, and exposed to some righteous turnabout.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:00 pmJD, I’ll pass.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:04 pmIt is comic golf, SPQR. He is a loon.
JD (2b4a42) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:06 pmIt is comic gold, SPQR. He is a loon.
JD (2b4a42) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:07 pmWorst faux MOBY ever – so far, the night is still young.
Dmac (ad2c6a) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:07 pm“You’ve got a sloppy Chicago democrat losing the House, and exposed to some righteous turnabout”
This is my one fear about the election results: that the new House will waste huge amounts of time in interminable investigations of the Obama administration. This is something that Pelosi’s house mostly avoided doing in 2006, and unless someone has a smoking gun, I think it’s a distraction from the real work that this House should be focusing on.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:12 pmFilling the bathtub with pudding in preparation for full body immersion!
daleyrocks (940075) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:13 pmThen again, aphrael, if the first investigation is of the DOJ and the New Black Panther case, I don’t think that would be all the inappropriate.
The Departed (d027b8) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:16 pmI think their first action should be to pass a budget with actual cuts in it, defunding BarckyCare, then go home until 2012.
JD (2b4a42) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:18 pmWorst faux MOBY ever – so far, the night is still young.
Comment by Dmac — 11/2/2010 @ 1:07 pm
Oh, never fear; there’re plenty more where that came from.
Am determined to enjoy every minute of this day. Am sorry for honest liberals but not for the trolls, and even less for the politicians who have been living high, passing out treats to friends and purchasing reelection for themselves with our children’s money.
Lots of work to do keeping an eye on the Republicans replacing the Dems, but for now….Savoring. Every. Moment.
no one you know (325a59) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:19 pmalso this…
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/251968/obi-wans-election-day-assessment-we-havent-seen
Superwave? maybe.
Holy f—– S— if it is.
Aaron Worthing (e7d72e) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:20 pm“This is something that Pelosi’s house mostly avoided doing in 2006, and unless someone has a smoking gun”
aphrael – I think you mean 2007, but you and I have different memories of the period although I confess I have trouble remember which theater occurred in the House versus the Senate.
daleyrocks (940075) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:21 pmNoyk – I am going to enjoy this one day, and then will prepare to be disappointed by Team R.
JD (2b4a42) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:21 pmO’Donnell wins Delaware.
cedarhill (cae0e3) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:23 pmOff topic, but released today, the Social Security Administration admitted that a data error means that their previously released wage data is all wrong and in 2009, wages dropped.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/social-security-administration-admits-massive-screw-wage-data-two-people-cause-entire-us-inc
There’s your “hope and change”.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:26 pmWe should have seen this when Scott Brown and Chris Christie won.
Something fundamental has shifted, once Obama was elected. I think the mask didn’t just slip. It was thrown away based on arrogant assumptions. The dems have been boasting for years about how the GOP will evaporate because of demographics, and I’ve always smirked. We can’t all be the oppressed victim. Eventually, the country sees the big picture.
Is today ‘eventually’? Probably. Democrats in office will be trying to explain that ‘we get it’ and clamoring for fiscal restraint. They will be running against Obama’s policies or changing party.
It doesn’t fit the narrative to discuss the GOP’s timeline in a coherent way, but we broke through in 1994, very soon after Reagan’s legacy appeared to be over thanks to a third party (a third party concerned with spending). We didn’t lose our way as a movement… our politicians simply became entrenched incumbents, which we have to continue to be wary of now.
But it’s a coherent timeline of the country waking up to our stark future problems.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:30 pmdeclining wages, declining prices: deflationary spiral, here we come.
can we have an actual targeted stimulus, please?
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:30 pmthat the new House will waste huge amounts of time in interminable investigations of the Obama administration
I agree, except when it comes to Holder. His behavior has been disgraceful, I cannot recall another AG being so negligent in carrying out the duties of his office.
Dmac (ad2c6a) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:30 pmEven though I predicted an 80 seat pickup in the House and 10 in the Senate, I won’t be surprised if the final total is a mere fraction of those.
Because of cheating, and also because of many Republican voters’ disdain for government, which is good as far as it goes, but it also translates into not voting in a lot of cases, which … yeah, is a problem.
I’m still holding with my prediction, but am not going to be totally surprised to be disappointed.
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:31 pmcan we have an actual targeted stimulus, please?
A great idea, but it’s way too late for that now – the horse has left the barn. How much of that bill is already spent? Isn’t it something like 50%? We are truly screwed here.
Dmac (ad2c6a) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:32 pmaphrael, somewhere I saw an economist analysis that suggested that the faux stimulus pork bill really did have zero effect net. I’ll have to recall where I saw reference to the paper.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:32 pmI find it hard to believe it’s net effect was even zero.
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:34 pmThat would be an improvement.
JD (2b4a42) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:36 pmdustin
> Democrats in office will be trying to explain that ‘we get it’ and clamoring for fiscal restraint.
No, no, my surest prediction is that tonight or tomorrow, the liberal media will label us a racist country. 🙂
Aaron Worthing (e7d72e) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:36 pmIt would be so funny, but I half expect people will accuse the country of racism too.
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:37 pmThis is a radical position that isn’t in line with political history or trends already noted in the news today.
Disdain for the government = low turnout this year? Well, Cristoph just came out and claimed there will be a small fraction of the common predictions here. I realize he did so in the Cristoph “I’m not really saying what I just said” way. And I know he won’t admit he was wrong. I don’t really care and I’m not trying to great a thread war.
That kind of reasoning is terrible, though. The notion that distrust of bloated government leads to low civic participation is yet another smear the left feeds the gullible. We’re the community organizers. We’re the ones going to Tea Party rallies and town halls and fighting in the military and teaching in Sunday School. Cristoph wants you to think these people are yahoos. I wonder if he’s ever run into a bona fide Tea Party.
I have been to several. They are not yahoos. They will vote. They take personal responsibility for righting our nation by reigning in their representatives.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:37 pmOf course, there will be plenty of that. Plenty.
And it will contradict the democrats who hope to stay in office in the future, who will try to explain they have learned their lesson or where never OK with the deficit to begin with.
And there will be much pressure for them to demonstrate they are not in line with Obama. It’s going to be an interesting 2011.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:39 pmHouse. R 255 (+). Yes, 76 pickups, mayhaps more.
Senate. R 50, D 48, I 2. Ben Nelson comes around NLT 10 Nov.
Swing for the fence. Now is no time to play defense.
Wil Golden (63c0a5) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:41 pmF—- I didn’t say that.
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:41 pmNoyk – I am going to enjoy this one day, and then will prepare to be disappointed by Team R.
Comment by JD — 11/2/2010 @ 1:21 pm
Yep, I hear what you’re saying — neither party as a whole has been very worthy of trust lately.
IMO the tea party (and I have no dog in this fight; never even attended a rally) has been very successful in sending a message to Washington that we are watching very closely now. The howls of outrage from pols re: all the “disruptions” at town halls from the inception of this movement are a direct result of feeling insulated from accountability: all the replies and complaining boil down to the same reaction: “how dare you ask ME impertinent questions!”
I think we’re going to need to keep sending that “we’re watching you and you owe us answers” message, and pretty regularly, no matter who’s in office,if we expect better from Team R this time. Am encouraged to see some R’s making statements to that effect recently. Am hoping they mean it.
no one you know (325a59) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:42 pmThere will be a huge fight in the lame duck session over the Bush tax cut expiration, where the Democrats will use Republican support for extending them as a demonstration that they aren’t really interested in cutting the deficit, and the Republicans will try to show that the Democrats are just tax-and-spend types.
It will be politically easier for the Republicans to manuever that one if they could identify spending cut offsets for the lost revenue. But they won’t.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:43 pmAnd this message was relatively effective for a few years after the 1994 democrat rout. It’ll be even more effective today because information is easily transferred.
and then
Yeah, you did. And it’s completely wrong. It’s a profound misunderstanding of what’s going on in the United States.
I’m not attacking you. I already noted you will not associate with your own claim. I’m attacking this idea. This idea is completely wrong. The “fraction” prediction that you typed, that you instantly noted you take no responsibility for, is also proving wrong today.
It’s no surprise, given your commentary on “yahoos” and “twits” that you just don’t understand what’s going on in the Tea Parties. Attend one. These people are going to vote because of the reason you said they don’t vote.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:48 pmThat would be on account of the population wanting their huge government programs and their booming private sector too. These centrists swing elections and for the most part, they can’t deal with reality.
Leftists don’t care about economic reality, they want Utopia. Rightists are very willing to confront reality. Centrists think they care about reality, but really want to hear soothing words in their ear: “It’s all going to be alright. Here, have a spending increase on an entitlement program.”
Sure, this time Obama overreached, but in general, I expect the centrists will be just as PO’d at the right in 2-4 years. Here’s to hoping it’s 4.
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:48 pmDamnit, Dustin, again you don’t know what the F you’re talking about, and I can hardly be bothered to educate you.
The small government conservatives are mainly libertarian sorts, more like me than the conservative right. The conservative right does vote and passionately so on pro-life and other social causes, in addition to others. Even philosophically, many libertarians consider voting suspect. Ace was making this point repeatedly throughout the campaign based on comments on his site from commenters who hated Obama, but were none too enthusiastic about participating in politics.
I didn’t comment one way or the other on voting turnout today. Obviously the polling indicates high Republican enthusiasm and initial reports are promising. I’m expressing some stoic skepticism while predicting a takeover of the Senate and gain of 80 House seats (for F sakes!).
If you’re going to comment on it, why don’t you read what I write instead of projecting?
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:53 pmIf so, they deserve the disaster that will come to them.
But you’re thinking of the 2004-2006 GOP House (I suppose). The 1995 House was more clever, and I think we’re going to be seeing that sort of animal.
Imagine democrats switching from “what cuts? show me the cuts?” to “I can’t believe they are going to cut this program?” They may have to be baited into the first in order to achieve the second.
And the House can pass massive cuts they don’t even want, knowing Obama will veto it. Clinton was tougher to manipulate to partisan disadvantage (which is the same as saying he was easier to manipulate into doing something smart).
A lot of this mess is difficult to predict because I’m not sure how Obama will react. Many say he is a strict ideologue, but he’s also a neophyte who could learn his lesson and make a major change. That’s my hope.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:55 pmForgot to add: the health care bill alone IMO is a really good “last straw” crystallization of these issues.
IIRC even the MSM did a fairly good job getting out the word about the things like ramming it through after midnight, with most reps not even having read the bill. (Credit where credit’s due.)
I think the transparently thumbing-their-noses-at-taxpayers process (cancelling townhall meetings, not taking constituents’ calls, the sordid process tricks to pass it, the “we Congresspols will keep our OWN goldplated coverage of course”), combined of course with the sheer magnitude of spending involved, and the planned takeover of about 1/6 of the economy, is what put a lot of people over the edge and made them finally realize, hopefully now not too late, that all politicians have to be watched like hawks or those with power can too easily abuse it for their own ends (e.g. a huge vanity bill they didn’t even read that in several implementations so far has had the opposite of the advertised “good for the people” effect).
no one you know (325a59) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:57 pmNo, you expressed two contradictory POVs.
You might as well say you can’t make a prediction. I know what I’m talking about. The idea you proposed it absolutely ignorant of those disdaining the government (as you put it).
I’m not attacking you, because, after all, you even agree with me that your idea cannot be supported. I’m attacking the idea itself that those who dislike our huge government are yahoos who don’t vote.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:57 pmYou’rethat’s wrong.And I’m not saying GOP votes won’t be elevated this cycle. Obviously they will be. I’m thinking that my optimistic prediction of 80 House pickups might be undermined by a certain percentage of small government opposing Republicans not voting, and Democratic voter cheating.
Kind of exactly like what I said the first time.
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:58 pmnoyk, you paint a great picture.
I can see the GOP saying “well, we finally managed to read that Obamacare bill now, and we want to vote it down now. We just saved $1 trillion. You should be thanking us. We won.”
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 1:59 pmYou’ve never heard of hoping for the best and preparing for the worst?
Kind of like … Stoicism?
My prediction is 80/10. I won’t be surprised if it’s less. Gee, man, move on to something else.
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:00 pmChristoph, just curious, can you tell us who you voted for? I mean, you’re discussing hypothetical yahoos you have really railed against and insulted several times as people who probably won’t vote, so I’m curious about your vote, why you made the selections you did, how those selections relate to the votes you think us “yahoos” should have cast, etc.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:02 pmSo your prediction is less, or a “fraction” of 80/10. It’s also 80/10. No problem. You’re just saying you have no idea whatsoever. You’re not the only one saying you don’t want to make a prediction and there’s nothing wrong with it. It’s a little silly to also pretend you made a prediction, but then, I’m just a [insert one of your insults].
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:04 pmWatch the results in Indiana 2 (South Bend and significant rural area) with flip flopper extraordinaire incumbent Joe Donnelly, against a COD-type named Jackie Walorski. The population mix is an excellent representation of the state wide mix of PA, CA, and WA.
Donnelly held a comfortable lead throughout, until the final polls which indicate margin-of-error. RCP had this race as lean Dem all season, until last week when it went to “Toss Up.”
A Walorski win presages a Dem wipe out. A Donnelly win gives them reason to have faith the Senate will not flip.
Ed from SFV (c16c43) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:10 pmYou are dense, Dustin.
Christoph (8ec277) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:11 pmI may be dense, which would explain why I asked you a question, Cristoph, that I’m not surprised you won’t answer.
You have attacked people many times in personal ways instead of discussing ideas, and it doesn’t bother me. I simply noted an idea you raised is fundamentally ignorant. Reality is proving it to be ignorant. It follows your campaign to call these people “yahoos”, but it also comes with your typical “I’m not taking responsibility for what I said”.
Who did you vote for? Why did you make that selection?
I know I’m a dense jackass yahoo twit, etc. Whatever. I don’t care. I voted.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:19 pmThanks for that tip, ed. There are a few good bell weathers in the east and I hope more people point some out.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:20 pm“The small government conservatives are mainly libertarian sorts”
Christoph – Got anything to back that up? I smell BS.
daleyrocks (940075) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:34 pmNo, he’s right. Small Govt Republicans are only slightly to the right of a libertarian.
The Departed (d027b8) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:37 pmThe libertarian idea… the concept… is confused by the libertarian party. After all, Lisa Murkowski was considered as their candidate. The chair of the California libertarian party endorses prop 19 even though it’s a major intrusion into freedom of assembly.
I do not think the vast majority of people who want the government to be much smaller are very far from my type of libertarianism. It’s hard to move from that point, for me, to some broader argument about election results. They are voting for Republicans this year.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:41 pm“Small Govt Republicans are only slightly to the right of a libertarian.”
Well, we’ve got libertarians who call themselves libertarians because it sounds cool.
We’ve got libertarians who call themselves libertarians because they want to do drugs.
We’ve got libertarians who love Nor Luap and are bug nucking futz.
I would not classify any of the above as close to a small government conservative, sorry.
daleyrocks (940075) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:45 pmBaron Hill in Indiana will be a pretty good indicator as well.
JD (c8c1d2) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:47 pmHey, just put up a new election post. Baron Hill is mentioned.
Karl (99bf88) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:50 pmNot quite. SHE courted THEM. They told her “No thank you”.
The Departed (d027b8) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:53 pmDustin
The libertarian idea… the concept… is confused by the libertarian party.
A friend who is also a veteran Libertarian activist, and candidate, has long said that is the case.
After all, Lisa Murkowski was considered as their candidate.
That was a shocker to me. A pork-barrel politician is the antithesis of Libertarian principles. Thankfully, the LP voted down this noxious idea.
The chair of the California libertarian party endorses prop 19 even though it’s a major intrusion into freedom of assembly.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:57 pmThe passage that Patterico showcased about non-discrimination by employers troubled me. I would rather it had not been included. However, I voted for Prop. 19 anyway, considering it a net gain for individual liberty.
Karl – his ad campaign was remarkable. He sent out flyers touting himself as the real conservative. The DCCC ran ad after ad after ad after ad after ad after ad savaging his opponent, never showing Baron Hill, or his party.
JD (c8c1d2) — 11/2/2010 @ 2:59 pmMy “but they won’t” is based on rhetoric coming from House republicans to the extent that tax cuts don’t need deficit offsets.
I think it betrays them as being hypocrites of the highest order, to say the least.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 3:00 pmSorta.
They eventually did not select her as candidate. But as I said, they considered her as their candidate for a while. And Murkowski is a big government type by my definition. The party did not approach her or select her, and to their credit eventually noted Murkowski does not share their values.
Thank goodness. But I was surprised at their hesitation.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 3:01 pmDustin,
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 11/2/2010 @ 3:04 pmIt looks like a few top Libertarian officials wanted Murkowski to run on their ticket. But they don’t speak for the party. I’d be greatly surprised if the Libertarian grassroots had anything but contempt for the idea.
And judging from his (lack of) grammar, Dave Haase has a room-temp IQ.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 11/2/2010 @ 3:06 pmAphrael – that is really a philosophical difference, no, encompassing static scoring, and whose money that is to begin with, etc … The idea that they have to “pay for” a tax cut is a fundamental difference in the views of the parties, no?
JD (c8c1d2) — 11/2/2010 @ 3:10 pmBaron Hill in Indiana will be a pretty good indicator as well.
Don’t forget the infamous vid of Mr. Congressman lecturing his poor, benighted citizens of why they couldn’t tape his townhall. “YOU DON”T RUN MY TOWNHALL, I DO!” What a bag of douche.
Dmac (ad2c6a) — 11/2/2010 @ 3:11 pmFYI- Dick Morris’ site has crashed.
On Hannity’s radio show, his final prediction was that the GOP takes the Senate 51-49, with either CA or WV being the final seat to flip. He calls WA a GOP win.
He said the House is looking at a historic switch because turnout of conservatives is epic (my term). In FL, he reported that 37% of GOP voters had come out by mid-afternoon, but only 17% of Dems. This is an incredible trend. Incredible.
He also mentioned Donnelly/Walorski as a harbinger. If Walorski wins, he says the GOP picks up 80-100 seats.
Ed from SFV (c16c43) — 11/2/2010 @ 3:19 pm“I think it betrays them as being hypocrites of the highest order, to say the least.”
aphrael – As much as Democrats ignoring freshly passed Pay-Go laws they trumpeted?
daleyrocks (940075) — 11/2/2010 @ 3:22 pmDaley – even that is not a fair comparison, as there is no underlying political philosophy on that.
JD (c8c1d2) — 11/2/2010 @ 3:27 pmYou and Departed are both right about this. But it’s just a symptom that some, apparently the candidate in this case, are more confused about libertarianism than you guys.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 3:33 pmaphrael, the reality is that there is actually a very small difference between the Democrat and Republican positions in the tax rates, with the difference measured in tens of billions at most.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 4:03 pmJD: well, if your concern is reducing the debt, than any reduction in revenue should be balanced by an equivalent reduction in spending, otherwise you’re not reducing the debt.
Now, we can get into arguments about whether reducing tax rates will reduce revenue, but that’s not the argument i’m seeing made: the argument i’m seeing made is that reductions in revenue are exempt from this reasoning because they’re intrinsically good.
Which is no different from the argument that extending unemployment benefits is exempt from the reasosning because it’s intrinsically good.
Daleyrocks: doing that was a mistake – but the Democrats are also not trying to run on a platform of balancing the budget, which makes it a bit different.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 4:06 pmpeople are just talking about not jacking up tax rates while unemployment is skynormously high and while spending is quite literally out of control
president bumblef needs to demonstrate to the class he’s mastered the concept of manic crack-whore spending = scary bad deficits before we move on to more complicated revenue problems I think
happyfeet (a55ba0) — 11/2/2010 @ 4:10 pmSPQR: ah, but tens of billions of increase is still an increase.
IMO, if you’re really serious about balancing the budget being the highest priority, you let all of the cuts expire on schedule.
aphrael (e0cdc9) — 11/2/2010 @ 4:12 pmNBC is projecting Rand Paul to take the KY Senate seat, and Don Coats to win Indiana’s
Some chump (4c6c0c) — 11/2/2010 @ 4:18 pmYAY!!! As a semi-Paultard, (father and son), please permit me this outburst.
Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 11/2/2010 @ 4:20 pmaphrael, that’s the principled position. But when the Democrats are proposing foregoing three-quarters of the tax revenue that the Republicans are proposing, then cries of hypocrisy are pretty hollow. In fact, ridiculous.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 4:29 pmwe now return you to our regularly scheduled movie of the week… The Revenge of Nicky Diaz … already in progress
happyfeet (a55ba0) — 11/2/2010 @ 4:29 pmaphrael,
My understanding is that federal tax revenue was higher than previously predicted after the Bush tax cuts went into effect. I honestly don’t remember/know if the absolute revenue went up from the previous year, or simply the change brought more revenue than otherwise anticipate.
My support of maintaining the Bush tax cuts assumes that removing them would actually result in decreased tax revenue. I think that many Dems like increasing taxes on the rich (other than themselves) not really to have increased revenue for appropriate governmental spending, but to give the impression that they are more “compassionate toward the poor”, in trying to get the elusive 50% of the public getting paid off by the Dems in govt to keep electing them. I think Obama goes farther and thinks it is good to confiscate wealth “just because” it is “unjust” for some to have more than others- as long as he gets to decide who it is that gets confiscated.
Unfortunately, we the public have little opportunity to really see the objective facts presented under oath and cross-examined. It seems that unless there are immediate legal consequences, being truthful is a rare bird anymore.
Yes, the Repubs had their problems too from 2000-2006 (when the Dems start to get the credit), but it wasn’t nearly as bad as the last 20 months, and they can suffer in 2 more years again if they don’t do what they’re elected for.
MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 11/2/2010 @ 4:43 pmAphrael – assuming that it reduces revenue is exactly what I referenced. In a static analysis, that is true. Not so much in real life, where revenues increased with slight reductions.
JD (c8c1d2) — 11/2/2010 @ 4:49 pmSo we’ve seen the last of Triumph the wonder chihuahua?
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/2/2010 @ 5:25 pmThat’s it. Fox projects Manchin. No way the Senate flips now.
Ed from SFV (c16c43) — 11/2/2010 @ 5:39 pm“Daleyrocks: doing that was a mistake”
aphrael – No, it made them hypocrites of the highest order.
I think part of this discussion depends on your definition of revenue. You seem to use the common Washington practice of counting future federal dollars before they are legislated or earned as revenue. Sure the existing legislation expires and if it does, tax rates go up. The impact on future tax collections is uncertain except assuming a static analysis. People react to changes in tax rates. They always have.
As you point out, the principle thing to do is if the tax rates are left alone is to cut spending. If the tax rates are left alone, collections will increase naturally as the economy recovers. Cutting spending back to a 2008 type baseline with increased collections will eliminate the deficit within a period of five years according to calculations I have seen. My concern with the current administration and congress is trying to justify the current level of spending as a baseline and using tax policy as a balancing mechanism. Government spending has never been this high as a % of GNP outside of wartime as I recall.
daleyrocks (940075) — 11/2/2010 @ 5:51 pmThanks.
Well, it wasn’t going to be an overnight return to power for the GOP. What was predicted to be 40 years turned out to be 2. Pride goes before the fall, but we’ll just have to finish taking the Senate in 2012.
The wins we’re going to get in the Senate are enough to completely terminate Obama’s agenda.*
*Unless some special deals are made.
Dustin (b54cdc) — 11/2/2010 @ 5:57 pmDonnelly re-elected in Indiana 2.
West Virginia numbers are not good for two House races.
I would be surprised if GOP takes anything more than 58 seats. Very surprised.
Ed from SFV (c16c43) — 11/2/2010 @ 6:00 pmSPQR – as soon as I called out Triumph, and proposed he put his money where it’s vile loud mouth is, it crawled away.
JD (c8c1d2) — 11/2/2010 @ 6:01 pmNY Giant 24, Dallas 3
JEA (229171) — 11/2/2010 @ 6:25 pmJEA – did you read where the Alaska media outlet fired the 2 staffers involved in the conversation you claimed was faked by Breitbart?
JD (c8c1d2) — 11/2/2010 @ 6:36 pmJD here is a Mr. instapundit post I thought you would appreciate
happyfeet (42fd61) — 11/2/2010 @ 7:07 pmJD i saw that. but… but… i thought they did nothing wrong!
Aaron Worthing (b8e056) — 11/2/2010 @ 9:56 pmSo the Reps ultimately won the House, but not the House. Looks like I was wrong on this. I grant you that.
But I was right regarding O’Dumbnell and Mangle, who both got the big stick – as well they should have. Morality: Tea Party sucks and its candidates can win only in retarded states or in three-sides elections like in Florida. They stand no chance against seasoned, reasonably brainy candidates.
Now I can’t wait for Brown’s and Boxer’s results – I’m sure they’ll be impressive, and Californian Reps will need a lot of Preparation.
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