Patterico's Pontifications


Mitt Romney Doesn’t Endorse Cruz To Be The Nominee But Will Vote For Him In Utah

Filed under: General — Dana @ 5:06 pm

[guest post by Dana]

A means to an end:

This week, in the Utah nominating caucus, I will vote for Senator Ted Cruz.

Today, there is a contest between Trumpism and Republicanism. Through the calculated statements of its leader, Trumpism has become associated with racism, misogyny, bigotry, xenophobia, vulgarity and, most recently, threats and violence. I am repulsed by each and every one of these.

The only path that remains to nominate a Republican rather than Mr. Trump is to have an open convention. At this stage, the only way we can reach an open convention is for Senator Cruz to be successful in as many of the remaining nominating elections as possible.

I like Governor John Kasich. I have campaigned with him. He has a solid record as governor. I would have voted for him in Ohio. But a vote for Governor Kasich in future contests makes it extremely likely that Trumpism would prevail.

I will vote for Senator Cruz and I encourage others to do so as well, so that we can have an open convention and nominate a Republican.

Interesting to note that Romney compares Trumpism with Republicanism, rather than Trumpism versus Conservatism, which would be more accurate given that Cruz is first and foremost a real Conservative. Cruz is just the party bus the GOP hopes to successfully run Trump over with on their way to Cleveland, where the party may or may not have a more compliant, less staunchly principled conservative nominee-in-waiting. I don’t believe Cruz is their guy.

Trump responded to Romney’s statement in his typically gracious manner:

Failed presidential candidate Mitt Romney, the man who “choked” and let us all down, is now endorsing Lyin’ Ted Cruz. This is good for me!

Failed Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney was campaigning with John Kasich & Marco Rubio, and now he is endorsing Ted Cruz. 1/2

Mitt Romney is a mixed up man who doesn’t have a clue. No wonder he lost!


Stage One Thinking Brings Us a Trump Victory

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:35 am


Kasich staying in, if Trende’s guesstimates are right, is likely the difference between Trump as nominee and Cruz as nominee. It’s a 170-delegate difference to Trump’s totals alone. And to think, like most of the other anti-Trumpers out there, I was dumb enough to celebrate on Tuesday night when Kasich won Ohio, denying Trump a 66-delegate windfall even though it guaranteed that he’d stay in the race and continue to do terrible damage. That’s the sort of strategic shortsightedness that’s crippled Trump’s opponents for the past nine months. In a way, we deserve him.

Whaddya mean “we,” pardner? Here’s me from March 9, in a post titled Why Rubio and Kasich Must Be Crushed:

Thomas Sowell likes to talk about “Stage One” thinking, in which people seek a certain result (Stage One) and fail to think through the consequences (Stage Two and beyond). I think that people who seek to have Rubio win Florida are Stage One thinkers. It will deny Trump delegates! Yay! Helps keep Trump from getting a majority! Yay!

This is Stage One thinking, and last night illustrates the problem. Ted Cruz would have probably won a majority of the vote in Idaho last night and swept the delegates there, but for Rubio. Without Kasich and Rubio, Cruz would have had a chance at Michigan and Mississippi as well.

With no Kasich or Rubio, Cruz would be the delegate leader.

A loss in their home states might be what we need to kick Rubio and Kasich out of this car. If they win, the result in Stage Two is that they’ll keep going, and Rubio especially will continue to suck away votes that should be going to Cruz.

The only problem with the Trende analysis cited by Allahpundit is that it gives 70 percent of Kasich’s voters to Cruz. I’m not sure that’s right. People who vote Kasich are basically Democrats, aren’t they? That’s certainly how I see them. If they didn’t have the Democrat Kasich to vote for, wouldn’t a lot of them go to the Democrat Trump?

But if Trende is right, then with hindsight, it is clear that we needed to swallow the bitter pill of giving Trump the delegates in Ohio and Florida, just to get Rubio and Kasich the hell out of the race. Yet Rubio encouraged his supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio. Thanks, Marco! Now Kasich is going to hang on all the way to Cleveland, an albatross necklace for Cruz that will hand the election to Trump. Unless something changes.

Stage Two thinking. It’s not just for economists any more.

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