[guest post by Dana]
There are a total of 150 delegates at stake tonight in the four states of Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, and Mississippi. You can follow the numbers here at Decision Desk HQ. Fox News is reporting that early exit polls show Michigan late-deciders are breaking for Kasich (35%) and Cruz (31%).
Donald Trump holds a narrow, three-point lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows, but the data also reveal potential cracks in his support.
The New York businessman is the top choice of 30% of likely Republican primary voters nationally, the poll finds, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, at 27%.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich has 22%, while Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has 20%, according to the poll.
Ted Cruz clearly hasn’t been just cruzin’ his way through the campaign, and his hard work shows. As for Rubio, well, I am really starting to feel sorry for him.
Interestingly, according to a survey released today, while Trump may be leading the pack, it’s not all sunshine and roses:
The bad news [for Trump] is either senator still in the Republican presidential race, Ted Cruz of Texas or Marco Rubio of Florida, would easily beat him in a head-to-head matchup.
The survey, released Tuesday as GOP voters head to polls in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii, lends credence to the argument that both Cruz and Rubio have been making against one another: Trump can be defeated in a two-man race, so you should drop out.
In hypothetical two-way matchups, Cruz leads Trump by 54-41 percent and Rubio leads Trump by 51-45 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. While the latter lead isn’t statistically significant, both are further signs of the apparent limits to Trump’s popularity within his party. Indeed, among non-Trump supporters, seven in 10 say they’d prefer Cruz, and as many say they’d pick Rubio, in head-to-head contests.
All those saluting pledge-takers is making someone optimistic!
UPDATE BY PATTERICO: Apparently Fox has called Mississippi for Trump and he is sweeping Michigan.