Here are some controversial statements: It is more important that Marco Rubio lose Florida than that Donald Trump not win. It’s more important for Kasich to be crushed in Ohio than it is for Trump not to get those delegates.
Trump had a good night last night, but in some ways Cruz had a better one, because of Marco Rubio’s humiliating defeats in various states. Rubio appears to have amassed 2 delegates last night, while Trump appears to have taken 72 to Cruz’s 59. (Kasich won 17.)
Allahpundit asks why Cruz people are throwing water on the idea of a contested convention. As someone who has called for Marco Rubio’s utter electoral humiliation, and believes it is critical that he lose Florida (and John Kasich lose Ohio), let me try to answer.
Thomas Sowell likes to talk about “Stage One” thinking, in which people seek a certain result (Stage One) and fail to think through the consequences (Stage Two and beyond). I think that people who seek to have Rubio win Florida are Stage One thinkers. It will deny Trump delegates! Yay! Helps keep Trump from getting a majority! Yay!
This is Stage One thinking, and last night illustrates the problem. Ted Cruz would have probably won a majority of the vote in Idaho last night and swept the delegates there, but for Rubio. Without Kasich and Rubio, Cruz would have had a chance at Michigan and Mississippi as well.
With no Kasich or Rubio, Cruz would be the delegate leader.
A loss in their home states might be what we need to kick Rubio and Kasich out of this car. If they win, the result in Stage Two is that they’ll keep going, and Rubio especially will continue to suck away votes that should be going to Cruz.
As for a contested convention: let’s face the fact that the Republican party is probably going to lose this election, because it is fractured so badly. But if you want to make that possibility a certainty, concoct a scenario where the guy who is in second place in delegates — or third, or fourth, or nowhere — ends up being the nominee.
Yes, we may well be headed towards a “contested convention” where the delegate leader lacks a majority of delegates. But there will be a strong expectation that whoever is in the lead emerges the winner.
If you’re looking to buck that trend, look ahead to Stage Two. Stage One: your candidate comes from a second or third place position in delegates to be the nominee. What happens in Stage Two?
I’ll tell you what happens. The supporters of the original delegate leader walk. And the nominee loses.
It’s not that I’m against a contested convention per se. I’m against one in which the goal is to vault Mr. #2 or Mr. #3 into first place.
I’m not sure Ted Cruz wants the nomination under those circumstances. I’m not sure I want him to have it under those circumstances. Because when Trump’s voters stay home or vote for Hillary in droves, the “lesson” learned will be that real conservatism kills the GOP.
Ted Cruz must go into the convention the delegate leader, even if he does not have a majority.
It is why Rubio and Kasich must get out. And they won’t do so voluntarily. They must be crushed.