Patterico's Pontifications

12/22/2023

Weekend Open Thread

Filed under: General — Dana @ 9:25 am



[guest post by Dana]

This is going to be a brief open thread because what should have been a trip involving 5 hours of flying and layovers ended up being 18 hours instead! Don’t ask why because I really don’t know. Something about a flooded airplane bathroom floor, technical issues, and i guess the need to give passengers an hour long tour of the tarmac. . .

Let’s go (*yawn*). . .

First news item

He did what?! Eh, I can’t even pretend to be surprised that Trump “personally pressured two Republican members of the Wayne County Board of Canvassers not to sign the certification of the 2020 presidential election. . .”

Second news item

Jake Tapper asks *the* double-standard question that Harvard very carefully avoids answering:

“Is Harvard University really holding its president, Dr. Claudine Gay to the same standards when it comes to plagiarism that they would assail for students committing the same offense?”

Charles C.W. Cooke explains plainly why Congress has a responsibility to be involved in this brouhaha:

Why are members of Congress “probing Harvard”? Because Harvard receives hundreds of millions of dollars from Congress, that’s why. Per Harvard’s own financial reports, the college was given $625 million by the federal government in 2021 — a number that “accounted for approximately 67 percent of total sponsored revenue.” Between 2018 and 2022, records show, Harvard was handed more than three billion federal dollars. If Harvard wishes to be completely “independent” of Congress — as, say, Hillsdale is — then it must also become completely independent of Congress’s wallet. It cannot pick and choose. With subsidy comes oversight. That isn’t a threat to “our democracy”; that is our democracy.

Third news item

Not good news for DeSantis:

Never Back Down, the pro-Ron DeSantis Super PAC that’s become embroiled in infighting and big-name resignations, pulled all of its 2024 advertisement reservations in New Hampshire and Iowa on Friday, the ad tracking company AdImpact reported. It’s the latest sign of turmoil at the PAC, which has crumbled from being a so-called political “death star” with $100 million in the bank to being what a political insider told The Daily Beast this week is the “maybe the worst-orchestrated effort in modern presidential history”—a clear distraction on top of the Florida governor’s faltering campaign.

Fourth news item

This needs to happen:

G7 officials have intensified talks in recent weeks on spending some of the roughly $300bn in immobilised Russian sovereign assets, a radical step that would open a new chapter in the west’s financial warfare against Moscow

The push comes as two crucial financial aid packages for Ukraine worth more than $100bn faltered this week, as Republicans in the US Congress and Viktor Orbán of EU member Hungary took a stand against funding Kyiv.

Seizing Russian assets could provide an alternative stream of funding for Kyiv, especially given the expected huge costs of postwar reconstruction.

Have a great weekend!

—Dana

654 Responses to “Weekend Open Thread”

  1. Hello!

    Dana (aac8e9)

  2. @Dana:
    oooof… sorry about your “scenic route” on the tarmac.

    Air travel these days makes me really consider simply driving then dealing with all that headaches.

    whembly (5f7596)

  3. It could have been worse of DeSantis. At least the PAC didn’t switch to running ads for Nikki Haley.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  4. Air travel these days makes me really consider simply driving then dealing with all that headaches.

    I’ve been to Phoenix and back twice in the last 6 months. Both time’s I’ve driven (4-500 miles, depending on route). Not only didn’t I want to deal with the airlines (or pay them money), but I ahve a new car and I wanted to see how it handled the trip. I gotta say that adaptive cruise control and lane-keeping are both fine features to have.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  5. Ukraine Shoots Down Three Russian Warplanes in Blitz Operation

    Ukraine said it shot down three Russian warplanes in one of its most-successful operations against Russian air power since the start of the war.

    Ukraine’s Air Force said the three Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers were downed around midday Friday in the south of the country. There Russia has used the jets to launch cruise missiles and guided bombs against Ukrainian-held cities on the western bank of the Dnipro River and Ukrainian soldiers who have established a foothold on the eastern side.

    Russian officials didn’t immediately comment, but Russian war bloggers close to the Kremlin acknowledged the losses and said they could have been targeted by U.S.-designed Patriot missiles.

    Ukraine didn’t say how the planes were shot down. An Air Force spokesman called it “a brilliantly planned operation.”

    I expect some GOP Congressperson to complain about this misuse of the Patriot system.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  6. The Biden doctrine, according to Rich Lowry:

    https://nypost.com/2023/12/19/opinion/biden-does-nothing-as-iran-backed-houthis-humiliate-us

    The Biden doctrine — whether it comes to arming Ukraine, responding to Iranian proxies’ attacks on US bases, or protecting shipping in the Red Sea — is to stop short of decisive action lest the other side escalate.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  7. The United States and Israel -maybe more the United States than Israel – are in agreement on the next step in Gaza: The leaders of Hamas must be hunted down.

    The United States thinks then the war will be over.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  8. The United States and Israel -maybe more the United States than Israel – are in agreement on the next step in Gaza: The leaders of Hamas must be hunted down.

    The United States thinks then the war will be over.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/22/2023 @ 11:00 am

    LOL! Hunt down the leaders of Hamas? They been negotiating with them in Qatar. Everyone knows where they are.

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  9. ut they are also trying to hunt them down.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/21/world/middleeast/hamas-leaders-sinwar-israel-gaza.html

    Fluttering down from the skies over Gaza on a recent day were clouds of fliers dropped by the Israeli military asking for tips on the whereabouts of top Hamas leaders.

    “The end of Hamas is near,” the fliers proclaimed in Arabic, promising hefty bounties to anyone who helped bring about the arrest of those who had “brought destruction and ruin to the Gaza Strip.”

    The Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, headed the list in exchange for a reward of $400,000 — more than 1,500 times Gaza’s average monthly wage.

    Israel’s stated goal in the war is to destroy Hamas, the armed Palestinian group that rules Gaza and set off the war there by attacking Israel on Oct. 7. But despite a military campaign that has caused nearly 20,000 deaths in Gaza and reduced entire neighborhoods to rubble, Israel has yet to locate Mr. Sinwar and other senior Hamas figures considered key plotters of the attack 10 weeks ago…

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  10. Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/22/2023 @ 10:58 am

    That and Biden is a cautious politician, and doesn’t want to get too far ahead of public opinion. He’s already out in a limb for his support of Israeli combat operations.

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  11. The leaders in Qatar are for later. They are trying to hunt down the leaders in the Gaza Strip.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  12. Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/22/2023 @ 11:17 am

    Israel has been too restrained in its approach to Gaza out of fear of harming the hostages. They need to get tougher.

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  13. https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/20/politics/blinken-israel-hamas-surrender/index.html

    Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday called out other countries for not demanding Hamas surrender.

    “What is striking to me is that even as, again, we hear many countries urging the end to this conflict, which we would all like to see, I hear virtually no one saying – demanding of Hamas that it stop hiding behind civilians, that it lay down its arms, that it surrender. This is over tomorrow if Hamas does that. This would have been over a month ago, six weeks ago, if Hamas had done that,” Blinken said during a press briefing at the State Department Wednesday.

    “How can it be that there are no demands made of the aggressor and only demands made of the victim,” Blinken went on to say…

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  14. https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/382111

    Following the tragic incident where three Israeli hostages were mistakenly killed by IDF soldiers, searches were conducted in a building adjacent to where the incident took place.

    Signs calling for help, apparently using leftover food, were located.

    Based on a field investigation, it appears that the three hostages were in the building where the signs were located, for some period of time.

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/382272

    The IDF examined the footage from a go-pro camera on the neck of a dog who was killed in clashes in Shejaya, revealing new details about the tragedy in which three hostages were mistaken for terrorists and killed by the IDF.

    The investigation revealed that on December 10, a dog entered a building to search it, after exchanges of fire took place between armed terrorists and IDF soldiers. The camera captured footage of one or two terrorists’ corpses.

    Alon Shamriz, one of the hostages, had previously fought in the Yahalom Unit, and knew how the dogs operate. He yelled towards the dog’s camera, “There are hostages here!” At this stage, it is not known if this footage was broadcast directly to the forces.

    The dog whose camera captured the footage of the hostages was killed by the terrorists, and it took a few days before the IDF was able to reach its corpse and collect the camera on it. Only after the hostages had already been shot, five days after the footage was recorded, did the forces know for certain that the recordings were indeed of hostages.

    Two of these three hostages were Jews; the other was Bedouin.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  15. https://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/opinions/from-ivory-towers-to-castles-of-hate/2023/12/21

    It gradually got worse. There was no problem with Arab students in the 1970s she says. It started in the 1990s And started to get bad in the 2010s

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  16. @4 what car did you get?

    SamG (4e6c22)

  17. Dec 22 2023 Petition for a writ of certiorari before judgment DENIED.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html

    No document yet to go along with that entry.

    BuDuh (d6ee90)

  18. @17

    Dec 22 2023 Petition for a writ of certiorari before judgment DENIED.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html

    No document yet to go along with that entry.

    BuDuh (d6ee90) — 12/22/2023 @ 11:43 am

    Back to the Appellate Court we go!

    whembly (5f7596)

  19. I’m shocked!

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  20. Supreme Court to Donald Trump: Merry Christmas!🎁

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  21. First hearing in the Circuit Court is Jan 9.

    It’s not that far away.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  22. @22

    First hearing in the Circuit Court is Jan 9.

    It’s not that far away.

    SamG (4e6c22) — 12/22/2023 @ 12:56 pm

    Pretty sure the DC case is done.

    The regardless what this round the Circuit Court, if they rule against Trump, his team has 90 days to request an en banc.

    Then, the result of the en banch, Trump can petition the SCOTUS, which they can take it up for fall 2024.

    Smith needs to focus on his classified document case.

    whembly (5f7596)

  23. SCOTUS can still expedite a hearing after a decision has been made in the circuit court.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  24. Lesley Wolf Refused To Explain Order To Remove Joe Biden From Search Warrant In Hunter Biden Case

    It must be nice having the DOJ run interference for you.

    And, before we make the case for Congressional oversight of Harvard, maybe we need to get Congressional oversight of federal agencies straightened out. Baby steps.

    lloyd (768611)

  25. “Smith needs to focus on his classified document case.”

    Against Biden? Oh wait….

    lloyd (768611)

  26. George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley predicted special counsel Jack Smith may “never see a March trial” Friday after the Supreme Court denied Smith’s plea to hear the case.

    The Supreme Court rejected Smith’s request to provide expedited review of an appeal of a district court ruling by judge Tanya Chutkan that rejected a motion by Trump’s attorneys to dismiss the charges. “The impact of this decision on Smith is going to be anything but good,” Turley told “America Reports” co-host John Roberts and guest co-host Jacqui Heinrich.

    “The reason he was so insistent on leapfrogging the D.C. Circuit is that he believes that this could end up endangering the March trial date,” Turley continued. “Now, that date, if you remember, was shoehorned by the court just before Super Tuesday. Everything has been frozen since the court looked at this question. So he may indeed lose that March date and then it’s a real problem. You go right over a cliff because this is a very jammed calendar. So it’s not clear if he could fit a trial between that date and the election.”

    Chutkan paused pre-trial proceedings during the appeals process Dec. 13. Smith secured a four-count indictment of Trump relating to his efforts to contest the results of the 2020 election in August.

    “The problem for Jack Smith is that he knows that whatever the D.C. circuit decides, there’s likely to be an appeal. So, he was willing to give up what many people assumed would be a favorable decision in order to maximize a favorable calendar,” Turley said. “Now, what happens now is not going to work as planned for Jack Smith. Once they hear this case in January, they have to write the opinion, they’ll do that as quickly as possible. But then, Trump’s people can do what’s called an appeal en banc, which is to ask the court as a whole to look at this question before they appeal to the Supreme Court. That will take time. And then if they en banc accept the case, he’ll never see a March trial. So then at that point, the Trump people can apply to the Supreme Court. So there’s a lot of runway now between him and that March date that he’s got to be able to cross, and the odds are he’s not going to be able to stick the landing.”

    “Keep in mind, because everything has been frozen in D.C., there’s a lot of work that still has to be done for the trial,” Turley continued. “So as soon as all of this is done, it’s got to go back to the court and they’ve got to decide what they have time for, in terms of that trial. So the odds if you are going to Vegas right now are not on Jack Smith for a March trial.”

    https://dailycaller.com/2023/12/22/jonathan-turley-lays-out-supreme-court-just-threw-wrench-jack-smith-holiday-plans/

    BuDuh (d6ee90)

  27. Supreme Court to Donald Trump: Merry Christmas!

    So, when the trial is pushed back a couple months and the jury is deliberating during the Republican Convention, which story do you think the media will cover more?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  28. Looks like I have crow to chew on. Rip, do you have good recipe or do I just have to eat this stuff raw….

    Appalled (5c1978)

  29. Looks like I have crow to chew on. Rip, do you have good recipe or do I just have to eat this stuff raw….

    Appalled (5c1978) — 12/22/2023 @ 1:59 pm

    I have no reason to eat crow. Some others might on January 24th. Nothing I have said will be contradicted by primary results. It was all said based on the polling at the time.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  30. Rip doesn’t actually want the wind to come from Vichy, he’s just reporting the weather. Of course, he LOLs anyone who thinks the wind might someday come from somewhere else.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  31. First News Item:

    It could have been worse. Inquiring minds want to know: why Ron DeSantis hasn’t removed her from the Sarasota County School Board?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  32. Rip doesn’t actually want the wind to come from Vichy, he’s just reporting the weather. Of course, he LOLs anyone who thinks the wind might someday come from somewhere else.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/22/2023 @ 2:17 pm

    We’ll see who is proven correct on January 24th.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  33. Against Biden? Oh wait….

    This is why Trumpies are so tiring. They ignore the beam in their own eye, but find something microscopic in someone else’s eye and demand it be treated the same.

    What Trump did was willful, to the point of paying people to hide the stuff after it was repeatedly requested. As someone who has held a clearance, I gotta say defending Trump on this stuff is intolerable.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  34. Against Biden? Oh wait….

    As long as Biden is President, he is immune from prosecution, the same as every president since 1973.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  35. The White House Clemency Recipient List:

    Today, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is using his authority under the Constitution to uphold the values of redemption and rehabilitation by commuting the sentences of 11 fellow Americans who are serving unduly long sentences for non-violent drug offenses.

    President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is commuting the sentences of the following 11 individuals:
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  36. According to Trump, he has a permanent get-out-of-jail-free card.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  37. Rip doesn’t actually want the wind to come from Vichy, he’s just reporting the weather. Of course, he LOLs anyone who thinks the wind might someday come from somewhere else.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/22/2023 @ 2:17 pm

    Despite for my dislike for Haley, I wouldn’t mind seeing her come in first in New Hampshire. I just don’t see her winning the nomination.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  38. Clemency Recipient List

    All drug distributors. It has to be asked: How many did Hunter Biden know?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  39. @4 what car did you get?

    2023 Hyundai Tucson Hybrid SEL.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  40. Quinnipiac University National Poll 12/20/23

    ……….
    Among Republican and Republican leaning voters, 67 percent support Trump, 11 percent support DeSantis, 11 percent support Haley, 4 percent support entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and 3 percent support former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

    This is both Trump’s and Haley’s highest levels of support since the Quinnipiac University Poll started national surveys on the 2024 GOP presidential primary race in February 2023 and this is DeSantis’ lowest score of the year. In February, he received 36 percent support.
    …….
    In a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are in a virtual dead heat, with 47 percent supporting Biden and 46 percent supporting Trump.
    ………
    In a three-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup adding independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Biden receives 38 percent support, Trump receives 36 percent support, and Kennedy receives 22 percent support.

    In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup adding independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump receives 38 percent support, Biden receives 36 percent support, Kennedy receives 16 percent support, and West and Stein each receive 3 percent support.
    ……….
    Voters are divided on the House of Representatives beginning a formal impeachment inquiry to determine whether or not to bring impeachment charges against President Biden, as 46 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove.
    ………
    More than two months after the October 7th Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, voters are split on whether the United States should send more military aid to Israel for their efforts in the war with Hamas, with 45 percent supporting it and 46 percent opposing it.

    This is a drop from majority support (54 – 39 percent) for the United States sending more military aid to Israel in Quinnipiac University’s November 16 poll.
    ………
    Voters (55 – 38 percent) support the United States sending more military aid to Ukraine for their efforts in the war with Russia, largely unchanged from a mid-November survey.
    ………
    Democrats (77 – 17 percent) and independents (51 – 42 percent) support the United States sending more military aid to Ukraine, while Republicans (42 – 51 percent) oppose it.
    ……..
    Nearly one-third of voters (32 percent) think the United States is doing too much to help Ukraine, 25 percent think the U.S. is doing too little, and 35 percent think the U.S. is doing about the right amount to help Ukraine.
    ………

    Top lines at above link. Trend lines March – Dec. 2023.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  41. SCOTUS can still expedite a hearing after a decision has been made in the circuit court.

    They may just want the DC Circuit to do the heavy lifting.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  42. We’ll see who is proven correct on January 24th.

    I’ve never said that Haley will win in NH. I’ve said that she might and that her doing so would badly affect Trump’s prospects. Also, it’s by far the outcome I’d prefer.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  43. I disagree it will harm Trump’s prospects. If four indictments and sexual assault accusations won’t nothing will.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  44. National polls are meaningless. Only polls in places that there is actual campaigning, and voting is upcoming, matter. Opinions in places that there is no upcoming contest are not well considered.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  45. I disagree it will harm Trump’s prospects. If four indictments and sexual assault accusations won’t nothing will.

    Trump’s lead dissipates where primaries approach. When people are forced to consider their actual vote instead of mere posturing, those trials take their toll.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  46. It could have been worse. Inquiring minds want to know: why Ron DeSantis hasn’t removed her from the Sarasota County School Board?

    Ha, ha, ha! For what? For being a moral, Christian, conservative Republican?

    Technically, he cannot remove her unless she has been convicted of a crime.

    nk (6b9c64)

  47. @39 nice. I have 2023 Kia Niro EV, their driver assistance features are pretty good – and I assume similar to the Hyundai implementation.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  48. @31 methinks that you’re referring to the Zeiglers and not WI?

    SamG (4e6c22)

  49. It could have been worse. Inquiring minds want to know: why Ron DeSantis hasn’t removed her from the Sarasota County School Board?

    Ha, ha, ha! For what? For being a moral, Christian, conservative Republican?

    Technically, he cannot remove her unless she has been convicted of a crime.

    nk (6b9c64) — 12/22/2023 @ 3:12 pm

    Citation? DeSantis has removed other school officials for less egregious behavior.

    DeSantis said the governor can remove elected officials for “misfeasance, malfeasance, neglect of duty, drunkenness, incompetence, permanent inability to perform official duties, or commission of a felony.”

    I guess moral turpitude cases involving supporters get a pass.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  50. National polls are meaningless. Only polls in places that there is actual campaigning, and voting is upcoming, matter. Opinions in places that there is no upcoming contest are not well considered.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/22/2023 @ 3:01 pm
    ———————————————————
    Trump’s lead dissipates where primaries approach. When people are forced to consider their actual vote instead of mere posturing, those trials take their toll.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/22/2023 @ 3:04 pm

    What trials? A lot of primaries will occur before any trials. There will be eight contests before Super Tuesday and the original date of his (soon to be rescheduled) election interference trial. If that trial is postponed until after Super Tuesday (highly likely), you can add an additional 16 primaries.

    National polls create perceptions, and the current perception is that Trump rules the Republican campaign alone. We’ll see if the polls change the closer we get to Iowa (24 days away) or New Hampshire (32 days). So far there’s no evidence of that happening, either nationally or in Iowa or New Hampshire polls.

    Trump leads nationally (+52 over DeSantis and Haley, who are essentially tied); in Iowa (+32 over DeSantis and +34 Haley); and New Hampshire (+18 over Haley; +37 over DeSantis.)

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  51. https://nypost.com/2023/12/22/news/hillary-clinton-says-release-of-israeli-hostages-not-top-priority-for-netanyahu-report/

    Hillary Clinton reportedly told family members of Hamas-held hostages that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is more focused on politics than freeing their loved ones in Gaza.

    The former secretary of state leveled the accusation against Netanyahu, 74, during a meeting at Columbia University on Wednesday with 16 children and siblings of some of the more than 100 hostages who remain in Palestinian territory, according to Haaretz.

    Clinton, 76, reportedly urged the family members to ramp up the pressure on the Israeli government to strike a deal with Hamas terrorists that would see more hostages let out of Gaza.

    She further accused Netanyahu of being more focused on “politics and his personal survival” than on negotiating the release of hostages.

    The Hillary Clinton that so many supported over the mean tweeter.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  52. https://nypost.com/2023/12/22/news/missouri-baby-girl-born-4-months-early-and-14-ounces-home-in-time-for-christmas/?dicbo=v2-5JeNCmD

    A Missouri girl who was born the size of a “little baby bird” four months early and spent nearly 10 months in the hospital finally made it home — just in time to be her parents’ greatest Christmas “gift.”

    Evangeline “Evie” Statler will celebrate her first holiday at home with mom and dad after she only had about a 50% chance at survival when she was delivered at a Cape Girardeau hospital on March 24 – about four months before her mid-July due date – and weighing just 14 ounces, according to reports.

    “For the timing to line up with Christmas, it’s like, symbolic, almost like, yeah, she is our gift,” the newborn’s father, Dylan Statler told KSDK after Evie was released Monday.

    Evie arrived prematurely after mother Maddie Statler, 27, explained she woke up with back pain, and later that day started having contractions.

    God bless.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  53. https://nypost.com/2023/12/22/news/hamas-hostage-with-ny-ties-first-american-dead-in-captivity/

    Disgusting passive voice when speaking about Hamas murdering a hostage.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  54. Despite sponsoring successful legislative thefts from the Public Domain in 1976 and 1998, Disney will finally lose control over Mickey Mouse in 2024.

    https://variety.com/2023/biz/news/mickey-mouse-public-domain-disney-copyright-lawsuits-1235844322/

    Mickey and Minnie will enter the public domain on Jan. 1. From then on, Disney will no longer enjoy an exclusive copyright over the earliest versions of the characters. Underground cartoonists, filmmakers, novelists, songwriters — whoever — will be free to do what they want with them.

    Mickey Mouse has long been a symbol in the copyright wars. Beyond the practical impact, the expiration — 95 years after his debut in the short film “Steamboat Willie” — is also a major symbolic milestone.

    “This is a big one,” said Jennifer Jenkins, director of the Duke Center for the Study of the Public Domain. “It’s generating so much excitement in the copyright community — it’s finally happening.”

    Sonny Bono is spinning in his grave.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  55. Trump leads nationally (+52 over DeSantis and Haley, who are essentially tied);
    in Iowa (+32 over DeSantis and +34 Haley);
    and New Hampshire (+18 over Haley; +37 over DeSantis.)

    Proving my point pretty exactly. As the primary date approaches, people reconsider. Thanks!

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  56. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/22/2023 @ 7:47 pm

    Trump’s national lead has been increasing, and Haley’s polling gains have been at the expense of Christie and DeSantis, not Trump. And as I have pointed out in the past, neither Iowa or NH have been determinative of who the Republican nominee will be. Your point hasn’t been proven.

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  57. Whether Trump “wins” Iowa or New Hampshire by 5 or 15 points doesn’t matter, it would still be a “win.” Nobody cares about who comes in second place.

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  58. Trump say he will consider nikki haley for veep. Desatan says he has visited all 55 counties in Iowa and the more he visited the more he dropped in the polls. To know him is to hate him!

    asset (5bcc99)

  59. @52 A black woman in Ohio is being prosecuted for having a miscarriage while a corrupt senile old fool sits in the white house and does nothing as Ohio rethug legislators say they will ignore the peoples vote to protect abortion rights.

    asset (5bcc99)

  60. @51 Thanks for the info NJ Robb now I dont hate hillary as much as I did even though she is so corrupt!

    asset (5bcc99)

  61. Hillary hates Netanyahu because Netanyahu congratulated Trump on winning the 2016 election even though Hillary won in a landslide but Trump stole the election from her.

    nk (6b9c64)

  62. Trump say he will consider nikki haley for veep. Desatan says he has visited all 55 counties in Iowa and the more he visited the more he dropped in the polls. To know him is to hate him!

    asset (5bcc99) — 12/22/2023 @ 8:25 pm

    I hope so, but if Haley allowed herself to become his running mate it would prove everything I’ve said about her: no principles except those that further her career.

    However, MAGAWorld is quite opposed to the idea:

    ……….
    Former Trump chief strategist Steve Bannon, who warned attendees at a conservative conference last weekend that the GOP hierarchy would try to push Trump to pick Haley, told POLITICO that the former ambassador used “outdated Republican talking points” and embraced “Fox News-laundered neoliberal neocon policies that MAGA finds unacceptable.”

    Trump’s campaign has dismissed any chatter of vice president picks as premature, maintaining that he is focused on winning the upcoming primary contests.……..
    …………..
    Trump allies have moved swiftly to express their concerns that she’s not aligned with his base. And they’ve done so with little subtlety; deploying a full-scale media barrage of anti-Haley attacks.

    Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s eldest son, took to Newsmax to declare he would “go to great lengths to make sure” his father didn’t pick Haley. And Tucker Carlson, a former Fox News host who is frequently in touch with the former president, said on a conservative podcast this week that he would “advocate against” a Trump-Haley ticket “as strongly as I could.”

    Republican strategist Roger Stone, a longtime outside adviser to the former president, told POLITICO that he too would be “personally opposed to such a selection, because I believe that [Haley’s] views are so antithetically different than President Trump’s views.”…………
    ………….
    “There’s only one good thing about Nikki Haley,” said conservative activist Gavin Wax, who recently appeared onstage with the former president at a New York gala dinner. “It’s that everyone in MAGA hates her guts.”
    #########

    And there are 99 counties in Iowa.

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  63. National polls are meaningless.

    National polls tell you who the vast majority of Republican voters support and as we enter the primary season it’s Donald Trump.

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  64. Happy Festivus everyone!

    I will dispense with the “airing of grievances” to also wish everyone here a Merry Christmas.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  65. MAGAWorld will blindly obey the Orange Baboon with the exception of when MAGAWorld is quite opposed to the Orange Baboon.

    And all it took was a “sources say” rumor.

    Some monolithic voting bloc you have there.

    BuDuh (506405)

  66. Yeah, they couldn’t even overthrow the government properly.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  67. What percentage of Trump’s 2020 voters got involved in the attempted overthrow?

    Derp.

    BuDuh (506405)

  68. What Trump’s satellites say, for or against, about anyone, anywhere, anyplace, has the same worth as what ducks leave in the village pond.

    nk (6b9c64)

  69. I rounded the Wikipedia vote count down to 74,000,000.

    Do you think 10% of Trump’s voters tried to overthrow the government? That would be 7,400,000 rioters?

    1% at 740,000?

    .1% at 74,000?

    .01% at 7,400?

    Haha!

    MAGAWorld!!!!!!!!

    BuDuh (506405)

  70. Trump’s voters. What percentage, after setting out for the rally in Washington, ended up in Tacoma?

    nk (6b9c64)

  71. One thing that a Trump nomination would do is guarantee that I’d spend the next four years attempting to tolerate my government. It used to be that I’d only have to do that half the time, but with two huge statists competing for how they wanted to ignore the Constitution and bedevil the populace, I’d probably just check out until 2028.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  72. Do you think 10% of Trump’s voters tried to overthrow the government? That would be 7,400,000 rioters?

    I’m more interested in what percentage still believes the election was “stollen”, and what percentage denies an insurrection took place, and what percentage feels that the jailed J6 criminals are “political prisoners”, because there lies the Cult of Orange Jesus.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  73. Today:

    “Fake New Hampshire poll was released on Birdbrain,” Mr Trump said on Truth Social, referring to his former UN ambassador by his less-than-endearing nickname for her.

    Stupid Trump isn’t aware that “sources” say he wants Birdbrain as his VP????

    What an idiot.

    BuDuh (506405)

  74. An insurrection to my mind would require something extra-judicial like an assassination or military takeover.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74) — 12/20/2023 @ 8:27 am

    Though I believe that Trump’s action surrounding J6 scream impeachment and likely satisfy the elements of obstructing a congressional proceeding, I’m not so sure it’s easy to prove…beyond a reasonable doubt….insurrection.

    AJ_Liberty (1295e6) — 11/18/2023 @ 9:39 am

    BuDuh (506405)

  75. Jonah Goldberg

    @JonahDispatch
    Follow
    I’ve never liked the use of the word “insurrection.” It’s political valence is highly debatable. But on Jan 6 there was an indefensible, unpatriotic, and repugnant riot that screwed up the peaceful transfer of power. I don’t understand why any conservative would minimize that.

    BuDuh (506405)

  76. I’m more interested in what percentage still believes the election was “stollen”, and what percentage denies an insurrection took place……..

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 12/23/2023 @ 10:35 am

    Polls have consistently shown that a large percentage of Republican voters believe that Biden is an “illegitimate” President and/or the 2020 election was “stolen.”

    In (a CNN poll conducted in) August 2023, more than two-thirds of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said that Biden’s 2020 win wasn’t legitimate. About 4 in 10 of them thought there was solid evidence that Biden’s win wasn’t legitimate, which there isn’t. Only 3 in 10 thought that the election was legitimate.

    ……… At the time Biden was inaugurated, a majority of Republicans said there was solid evidence that the election wasn’t legitimate. That’s declined — but is up this year, alongside support for Trump’s 2024 nomination bid. The percentage saying the election was illegitimate at all has always hovered around two-thirds.
    …………..
    The two groups of illegitimate-election Republicans align with the two common shorthands for doubting the election: “stolen” and “rigged.” (Former Trump attorney John) Eastman is a member of the solid-evidence, “stolen” group. (Rep. Steve) Scalise adheres to the vaguer, “rigged” rhetoric. This rhetoric, it’s worth noting, emerged in part because Republicans knew that Trump’s arguments about rampant fraud would not be realized, but that the Republican base demanded adherence to the idea that Biden didn’t legitimately win. ………..

    Source

    And:

    ……….
    The (Economist/Yougov poll in October 2023) asked people whether Trump was “involved in an attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election in Georgia.”………

    ……….Just 18 percent in the YouGov poll said Trump was involved in trying to overturn Georgia’s results, compared to 59 percent who say he wasn’t.

    It’s now the second poll to show the vast majority of Republicans saying Trump wasn’t even involved in trying to overturn the election. YouGov asked similar, non-Georgia-specific questions in August. Republicans said just 38-30 percent that there was an attempt to overturn the election. That’s shocking in and of itself. But then it showed only half of that 38 percent said Trump was personally involved.
    ………..
    Marquette University polling in late 2022 showed 66 percent of Republicans said Trump hadn’t possessed “top secret and other classified material or national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago.” ………
    …………
    A mid-2022 Monmouth University poll showed not only that 77 percent of Republicans said Jan. 6 wasn’t an “insurrection” but that a 51 percent majority said it wasn’t even a “riot.”
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  77. BuDuh (506405) — 12/23/2023 @ 11:01 am

    BuDuh (506405) — 12/23/2023 @ 11:04 am

    Everyone is entitled to their opinion and to call the events of January 6th whatever they want.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  78. Stupid Trump isn’t aware that “sources” say he wants Birdbrain as his VP????

    There is no way that Trump would tolerate a VP who might know about the 25th Amendment.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  79. Rip Murdock (218e40) — 12/23/2023 @ 11:36 am

    In November’s WaPo/Monmouth University New Hampshire poll:

    ……….. A 55 percent majority of potential primary voters say Biden won “due to voter fraud.” Among that group, 72 percent support Trump, while all other candidates are in single digits….…….

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  80. Well, one could charge Trump with incitement of insurrection even if the insurrection was a bust.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  81. It’s not a question about what percentage of Trump’s supporters went to Washington DC for the insurrection; the question should be what percentage would have accepted the result if Trump succeeded in preventing Biden from assuming office.

    Fortunately, that is unknowable.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  82. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and to call the events of January 6th whatever they want.

    Tell Paul.

    BuDuh (506405)

  83. that is unknowable.

    But it does not, and will not, stop the consternation.

    BuDuh (506405)

  84. Other takeaways from that Monmouth poll:

    Favorable – unfavorable:
    Trump 59-36 = 23
    Haley 56-31 = 25
    DeSan 47-40 = 7

    Those that think that the 2020 election was honest, only 8% favor Trump. Those that think Trump committed a crime after the election, 0% favor Trump. Basically, Trump’s supprt is isolated to those that believe his lies, and those that don’t want anyone else.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  85. Of those that think that Trump did nothing wrong on J6, 85% back Trump.
    Of those who think the election was stolen, 85% back Trump.

    Clearly, mental health is an issue that needs to be addressed.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  86. There is no way that Trump would tolerate a VP who might know about the 25th Amendment.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/23/2023 @ 12:05 pm

    Assuming Trump isn’t impeached and removed from office (highly unlikely), or becomes physically disabled, the only way for the VP to become President is if the cabinet votes to remove him under Section 4. The VP can’t do initiate a removal on their own. Such an action would also need to be confirmed by a 2/3 vote of the House and Senate. Again, highly unlikely.

    I’m sure Trump will nominate and a Republican Senate will confirm a cabinet of sycophants so he would have nothing to worry about a boardroom coup.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  87. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and to call the events of January 6th whatever they want.

    Tell Paul.

    BuDuh (506405) — 12/23/2023 @ 12:12 pm

    And everyone is free to criticize everyone else’s opinion.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  88. And everyone is free to criticize everyone else’s opinion.

    👍

    BuDuh (506405)

  89. Basically, Trump’s supprt is isolated to those that believe his lies, and those that don’t want anyone else.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/23/2023 @ 12:17 pm

    Given Trump’s national polling (~60%) that’s a lot of Republican voters who believe his lies.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  90. Given Trump’s national polling (~60%) that’s a lot of Republican voters who believe his lies.

    Quite a few “Republican voters” are now independents. Self-selection, etc.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  91. When you get down to it, Trump’s voters are saying “We don’t trust you” to what they call the Establishment. And to be fair, there’s quite a lot not to trust. See Harvard and other colleges, the Southern Border, sexual social agendas, even distrust of police and other state institutions that were formerly seen as apolitical.

    That Trump is not the man to fix it isn’t really the issue as he’s seen as the one who will tear new assh0les, and that’s sufficient to satisfy the rage.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  92. I’m sure Trump will nominate and a Republican Senate will confirm a cabinet of sycophants so he would have nothing to worry about a boardroom coup.

    Congress can, by law, create a different body to serve in place of the Cabinet. That could conceivably happen in a Lame Duck Congress after a Trump victory, should Trump’s legal status be unstable. Both to allow for removal in some circumstances and to prevent a phony “incapacity” to effect a pardon.

    Not that I’d bet on it, but if it happened, it would happen like that while Biden can still sign it.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  93. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/23/2023 @ 12:53 pm

    And how would such a proposal get through a MAGA dominated House?

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  94. Quite a few “Republican voters” are now independents. Self-selection, etc.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/23/2023 @ 12:41 pm

    And they’re supporting the Lilliputians.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  95. That Trump is not the man to fix it

    You see the Southern Border problem continuing at its current pace under a future Trump administration?

    BuDuh (506405)

  96. I think I’m going to put “poll” on my blocking script.

    nk (6b9c64)

  97. Fraudulent stolen election No evidence and proven so in courts of law. But fair also no rigged yes. Voters who wanted to vote for green party were not allowed too as democrat party had them taken off ballot with ballot access rules put in by republicans to keep libertarian party off ballot. I had to write in both green party’s presidential and vice presidential candidates so my vote was counted ;but many others didn’t understand write in rules. Green partys jill stein made the ballot in 2024.

    asset (502268)

  98. And how would such a proposal get through a MAGA dominated House?

    A 4 vote margin is not domination, and not all Republicans are MAGA. MAGA has maybe 30% of the House votes anyway. Another 20% or so are Republican.

    Of course, it would require a few of those Republicans to show some balls.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  99. And they’re supporting the Lilliputians.

    For someone who doesn’t like Trump, you sure to seem to carry his water. A lot.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  100. You see the Southern Border problem continuing at its current pace under a future Trump administration?

    No, but I don’t see him fixing immigration either. And rounding up 11 million people and putting them in camps would make Andersonville look like a resort.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  101. For someone who doesn’t like Trump, you sure to seem to carry his water. A lot.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/23/2023 @ 7:17 pm

    Hardly-I’ve never endorsed any of Trump’s policies or proposals.

    Acknowledging the obvious that Trump’s opponents have not caused his polling numbers (both nationally and in Iowa and NH) to diminish is not “carrying Trump’s water.” Trump’s numbers have remained remarkably consistent (nationally his numbers have increased from a 44% share to 62% share among Republican voters between January 2023 and today).

    In NH, there is no doubt Haley’s polling gains have been at the expense of DeSantis and Christie, not Trump. Trump has consistently polled in mid-40s in NH, and Haley’s rise hasn’t affected those numbers.

    I know you think Trump’s poll numbers will collapse once his trials start. The election interference trial will be probably delayed until sometime after Super Tuesday, and it is likely that Trump could accumulate the necessary delegates by the end of May. It’s not “carrying Trump’s water” to say so. It’s just a fact that circumstances have made possible.

    Trump will probably be the Republican nominee when his classified documents trial starts in June.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  102. Trump’s numbers have remained remarkably consistent (nationally his numbers have increased from a 44% share to 62% share among Republican voters between January 2023 and today).

    Source

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  103. Tell Paul.

    Tell me what? I showed the definition of insurrection–a violent uprising against an authority or government–and made an easy conclusion. Others may have different opinions but, as I may have said more than once, words mean things.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  104. Trump NH polling, April 2023 to date.

    Trump Iowa polling, May 2023 to date.

    Trump’s support by Republican voters is what it is, not what you wish it to be.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  105. Tell me what?

    This:

    Everyone is entitled to their opinion and to call the events of January 6th whatever they want.

    Rip Murdock (218e40) — 12/23/2023 @ 11:40 am

    BuDuh (ed358d)

  106. You see the Southern Border problem continuing at its current pace under a future Trump administration?

    No

    In other words, you see the Southern Border problem improving.

    So do I.

    BuDuh (ed358d)

  107. It will take a few years ;but the immigrant situation will resolve itself when the young ones grow up and vote starting with the dreamers. More babies are being named juan then john. More then half the babies born in az, ca. and tex. are latinx. Over 300,000 minority kids turn 18 every month and counting dreamers its even more. This is why AOC will become president.

    asset (ad03f2)

  108. Its time for Xmas movies: Most consider die hard or lethal weapon the best Xmas movie. I prefer the seventh seal with the seventh sign a close second.

    asset (ad03f2)

  109. “Birdbrain”.

    Trump For President: The ultimate consummation of dumpster-diving.

    nk (bb1548)

  110. BuDuh (ed358d) — 12/23/2023 @ 9:16 pm

    I have my opinion, you have yours. I have no authority to force you to my point of view, no matter how much you personally redefine “insurrection” to suit your political agenda, so what’s the big deal?

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  111. In other words, you see the Southern Border problem improving.

    Under Trump I just see a different chaos.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  112. Trump For President: The ultimate consummation of dumpster-diving.

    Some see Trump as chaotic good. Others see him as chaotic evil. I just see chaos.

    It’s like a box of chocolates … that has been trampled by bison. You never know what you’ll get out of it, but it will be a mess whatever you pick.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  113. Its time for Xmas movies……..

    Remember the Night (1940)-Barbara Stanwyck & Fred MacMurray

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  114. The GOP doesn’t want to solve the border issue: just as with other far-right anti-immigrant parties around the world, it is too useful an issue to allow real reform to pass.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  115. So, what IS the best Christmas movie that doesn’t have Bruce Willis in it? OR just a good one to watch.

    Standard responses:

    Miracle on 34th St

    Love, Actually

    A Christmas Story

    A Christmas Carol (various)

    It’s a Wonderful Life

    Home Alone

    Some that have been recommended to me:

    The Santa Clause

    The Sure Thing

    3 Godfathers (John Ford version)

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  116. BuDuh (ed358d) — 12/23/2023 @ 9:16 pm

    Leave me out of your argument with Paul. Who cares (outside of you) what AJ or Jonah thinks what an “insurrection” may or may not be, it’s just their personal opinion. They’re not the last word on how the English language should be used.

    Under one common definition it’s “ an act or instance of revolting against civil authority or an established government,” January 6th was, as the rioters attempted (and temporarily succeeded) to delay the Electoral College process. An insurrection doesn’t require firearms, but the insurrectionists certainly used what they found as weapons.

    If whatever Democrat defeats Trump next year, I expect the same thing will happen, except that Insurrection 2.0 will attract a much larger crowd and will be better prepared.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  117. The Democrats don’t want to solve the border issue: just as with other far-left group-identity factional parties around the world, it is too useful an issue to allow real reform to pass.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  118. If whatever Democrat defeats Trump next year, I expect the same thing will happen, except that Insurrection 2.0 will attract a much larger crowd and will be better prepared.

    And will be put down just as certainly, but with many deaths and subsequent hangings.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  119. I would agree with A Christmas Story and the George C. Scott and Alistair Sim versions of A Christmas Carol, but I have a real dislike of Love, Actually. I also don’t care for It’s a Wonderful Life.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  120. OTOH, the GOP could choose to win rather than fight the Lost Cause to the bitter end.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  121. Does a proper Christmas movie require schmaltz, or is that a defect?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  122. I’ve seen arguments that the Magoo version of A Christmas Carol is the best one. But yes, I like the George C Scott version a lot.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  123. The Nightmare Before Christmas.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  124. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/24/2023 @ 8:43 am

    The Capitol Police will be a lot more aggressive in defending themselves during Insurrection 2.0.

    Rip Murdock (218e40)

  125. The Capitol Police will be a lot more aggressive in defending themselves during Insurrection 2.0.

    The DC Marine barracks will be on alert.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  126. It should always be remembered that all Trump had to do to win in 2020 was embrace mail-in balloting. Sure, he didn’t like the election rule changes, but refusing to use them to his advantage was a terrible mistake. It allowed Biden’s forces to have a much greater voting window.

    Trump may have gotten 2/3rds of the vote on day-of, but adding 1% to his total through mailed ballots would have carried the day.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  127. Y’all remember “The Ref” with Dennis Leary?

    SamG (4e6c22)

  128. @115 SamG, up is not down, and right is not left. Reality check. Rishi Sunak allies with Meloni. Macron allies with Le Pen. The reforms are coming from the far right, and Europe is to the right of the US. The Democrat crafted insurrection at the southern border wouldn’t be tolerated in any other country on the planet.

    lloyd (8dc1e3)

  129. So, what IS the best Christmas movie that doesn’t have Bruce Willis in it? OR just a good one to watch.

    On a similar theme, here’s my list of the best Hallmark or Hallmark-adjacent Christmas movies…
    • Naughty or Nice (funny and irreverent, and supporting actor Gabriel Tigerman stole the show)
    • Snow Bride (good fast dialogue, Katrina Law)
    • My Norwegian Holiday (one of the best of 2023)
    • A Biltmore Christmas (also a 2023 best)
    • Sealed With A List (2023 runner-up)
    • Noel Next Door (good performances by Natalie Hall and Corey Sevier)
    • Christmas in Homestead (Taylor Cole)
    • Jolly Good Christmas (good writing)
    • Hitched for the Holidays (Emily Hampshire from 12 Monkeys is underrated)
    • Bride For Christmas (also good writing, and Arielle Kebbel)
    • Mrs. Miracle and Call Me Mrs. Miracle (which may have migrated to Great American Family, Doris Roberts was completely charming)
    • Christmas to Remember (schmaltzy, but I’m a Mira Sorvino fan)
    • The Christmas Secret (even schmaltzier)
    • Christmas Waltz (my one nod to the omnipresent Lacey Chabert)
    • On the Twelfth Day of Christmas (good performances by both leads)
    • Naughty and Nice (to be mistaken for Naughty or Nice, starring Lizzy McGuire’s sister)
    • Christmas on 5th Avenue (charming Kathryn Davis)
    • Holiday Engagement (cute, quirky)

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  130. I tend to bristle at the term “far-right”, not because there is no such thing but that the media often misuses it.

    To me, it would mean a group that is two standard deviations off the mean, comprising a little over 2% of the populace. In the USA that would be the Constitution Party, or maybe the Libertarians depending on what your idea of “Right” is. The far-Left would be the Greens or some of the Socialist Labor-type parties.

    But Donald Trump is no more far-right than Bernie Sanders is far-left.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  131. Like Malcolm X told Jill Stein at Talladega, you can always deport Venezenaguans but you cannot deport Alabamans.

    I read somewhere that the Migra is giving out release letters with an appearance due date in 2031. (I think it was here.)

    They’re keeping their current crop of wooly lambs content and kicking the problem two administrations and four Congresses down the road.

    nk (5f5478)

  132. Good call on The Sure Thing, Kevin. I totally forgot it was a Christmas movie.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  133. The real problem with “left” and “right” is that out political system exacerbates extremes.

    The People comprise a Gaussian (bell-curve) distribution, with a peak at the center.

    The elected representatives comprise a bimodal distribution (two separated bell curves with a null at the center), and lately the gap has been widening.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  134. I read somewhere that the Migra is giving out release letters with an appearance due date in 2031.

    It’s pretty much the same for legal immigrants, too, which is a different problem.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  135. Gazans who protest Hamas in Gaza are brave, just like the anti-war protesters in Moscow.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  136. @132 Yes, unbelievable. Here’s a link to that.

    lloyd (8dc1e3)

  137. The Republicans don’t want to reduce the processing time, or make resettlement work, lest blue states get more House members starting with the 2032 election, nor so they now want to build detention spaces; they are saying they want to reduce “encounters” which means they don’t want to reach any agreement with Biden, so they can attack him. So Ukraine aid will fail, and there will be long lasting partial government shutdown.

    There is nothing Biden can agree to on immigration that will satisfy the Republicans, because then they won’t have the issue,

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  138. Biden wants to put a cap on the number of people the smugglers can bring to the border (by having tougher rules kick in at that point)
    He proposes 5,000 a day. Republicans are insisting on 3,000, and 3,000 may not pass.

    Jere’s an argument against that. Why not zero it asks. Duh. Because
    they are trying to deter the cartels. And the whole premise of the Republican proposals is based on deterrence.

    https://nypost.com/2023/12/17/opinion/biden-migrants-move-proves-us-border-crisis-could-end-now

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  139. Trump asks appeals court to block 2020 election prosecution
    ………….
    In a 71-page opening brief filed with the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, Trump’s attorneys said the prosecution’s charges primarily focus on his efforts to lobby state and federal officials to reverse the election results, actions that they claim were within Trump’s official responsibilities to ensure the 2020 election was conducted fairly.
    ………….
    “Under our system of separated powers, the Judicial Branch cannot sit in judgment over a President’s official acts,” Missouri-based lawyer John Sauer and other members of the Trump legal team wrote. “The indictment against President Trump is unlawful and unconstitutional. It must be dismissed.”
    ………….
    “Before any single prosecutor can ask a court to sit in judgment of the President’s conduct, Congress must have approved of it by impeaching and convicting the President. That did not happen here, and so President Trump has absolute immunity,” Trump’s attorneys wrote.
    ………….
    Trump’s brief draws heavily on discussions among the founders about the need to protect presidents’ official acts from review by the courts. That, they argued, has resulted in an unbroken history in which no president has ever been charged for conduct related to their official duties. Permitting the case against Trump to go forward, they argued, would lead to a cycle of recrimination and vengeance against future presidents.
    …………..
    Whenever Chutkan gets the case back, she will have to decide whether the original trial date is viable (it may have already passed), or whether a new date is necessary. Assuming Trump maintains his commanding edge in the GOP primary and becomes the GOP presidential nominee, the deeper into 2024 a trial goes, the more complicated it becomes as the general election draws nearer.
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  140. Part of the filing includes a quote stating that the President is an officer.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GCHvuPlbsAAsWd3?format=jpg&name=large

    SamG (4e6c22)

  141. Trump Civil Litigation Watch:

    Donald Trump may ask the Supreme Court to rule on whether he can use presidential immunity to avoid a defamation lawsuit from the writer E. Jean Carroll, his lawyers said in a court filing Thursday while asking for the trial, set for mid-January, to be delayed.
    ………….
    “There is little doubt that the Supreme Court views presidential immunity as indispensable,” Trump lawyers Michael Madaio and Alina Habba wrote in their Thursday filing with the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals.

    In a twist, they favorably cited Smith, writing that, “[i]n contrast to the district court’s dismissive treatment of President Trump’s immunity argument, Special Counsel Jack Smith asserted to the Supreme Court last week that the immunity issue presents a ‘weighty and consequential … constitutional question,’ which is of ‘exceptional national importance.’”
    …………..
    Earlier this month, the 2nd Circuit ruled that Trump waited too long — three years — to invoke the immunity defense in the Carroll lawsuit, which concerns comments he made while president.
    …………..

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  142. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/24/2023 @ 11:57 am

    Since Gouverneur Morris’s death predated the ratification of the 14th Amendment by 52 years, I doubt he was referring whether the president was an “officer of the United States” as described in Section 3.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  143. He was referring to impeachment and the punishment for it, which should be limited solely to removal from office – as an officer of the USA.

    While this is reference to double-jeopardy, I don’t think it’s helpful to Trump’s argument to not be an officer to provide a quote stating that POTUS is an officer.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  144. He’s not.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  145. Brutal:

    >………..
    Boxed in by a base enamored with Trump that has instinctively rallied to the former president’s defense, DeSantis has struggled for months to match the hype that followed his landslide 2022 reelection. Now, with the first votes in the Iowa caucuses only weeks away on Jan. 15, DeSantis has slipped in some polls into third place, behind Nikki Haley, and has had to downsize his once-grand national ambitions to the simple hopes that a strong showing in a single state — Iowa — could vault him back into contention.

    For a candidate who talks at length about his own disinterest in “managing America’s decline,” people around DeSantis are increasingly talking about managing his.

    Ryan Tyson, DeSantis’ longtime pollster and one of his closest advisers, has privately said to multiple people that they are now at the point in the campaign where they need to “make the patient comfortable,” a phrase evoking hospice care. Others have spoken of a coming period of reputation management, both for the governor and themselves, after a slow-motion implosion of the relationship between the campaign and an allied super political action committee left even his most ardent supporters drained and demoralized.
    ………..
    The turmoil at the (Never Back Down super PAC)— which followed a summer of turbulence inside the campaign — has been almost too frequent to be believed. The super PAC’s CEO quit, the board chair resigned, the three top officials were fired and then the chief strategist stepped down — all in less than a month, enveloping DeSantis’ candidacy in exactly the kind of chaos for which he once cast himself as the antidote.
    ………….
    Cash is scarce as the caucuses near. Never Back Down, which spent heavily to knock on doors in far-flung states such as North Carolina and California last summer, canceled its remaining television ads in Iowa and New Hampshire on Friday, though new pro-DeSantis super PACs are picking up the slack.

    Federal records show that, by the time of the Iowa caucuses, the DeSantis campaign is on pace to spend significantly more on private jets — the governor’s preferred mode of travel — than on airing television ads.
    …………
    DeSantis’ decision to delay his entry into the race until after Florida’s legislative session concluded meant he was on the sidelines during Trump’s most vulnerable period last winter. Then, once DeSantis did hit the trail, he struggled to connect, appearing far more comfortable with policy than people as awkward encounters went viral.
    ………
    …………For many Republicans, President Joe Biden’s weak standing tempered any urgency to pick a so-called electable choice. And when the debates began, DeSantis underperformed initially in the bright glare of the national spotlight.

    Remarkably, in a race Trump has dominated for eight months, it is DeSantis who has sustained the most negative advertising — nearly $35 million in super PAC attacks as of Saturday, more than Trump and every other GOP contender combined.
    …………..
    From the start, the DeSantis theory had been that undecided Trump supporters would have one other ideological home, with a governor running as an unabashed Trump-style Republican. Once DeSantis was the only Trump alternative, the thinking went, the smaller anti-Trump faction would come along to forge a new majority.

    But after the first indictment, soft Trump supporters returned en masse to the former president. And DeSantis soon lost ground to Haley in courting the moderate anti-Trump wing.
    ………..
    The close ties between DeSantis’ campaign and Never Back Down have already prompted a formal complaint from a watchdog group that accuses the relationship of being a “textbook example” of coordination that is illegal under campaign finance laws.
    …………
    In speaking with voters, the governor reverts to a word-salad of acronyms — DEI, COLA, CRT — and rushes through the moments when crowds burst into applause. He delivers a stump speech filled with conservative red meat but has not shown the empathic instinct to make deeper connections. Over the summer, when a 15-year-old Iowa girl who has depression asked DeSantis if her mental health issues would prevent her from serving in the military, he interrupted her question to make a joke about her age.
    …………
    If the great promise of the DeSantis candidacy was Trump without the baggage, Stuart Stevens, a top strategist on Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, said that what Republicans got instead was “Ted Cruz without the personality.”
    …………..

    Everybody denies anything has gone wrong.

    Ron DeSantis’s reaction to the article.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  146. Rip Murdock (dace88) — 12/24/2023 @ 2:58 pm

    Why vote for Trump lite when you can vote for the real guy?

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  147. Remember the Night (1940)-Barbara Stanwyck & Fred MacMurray

    Indeed. Watched it on your recommendation. It’s a gem.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  148. While this is reference to double-jeopardy, I don’t think it’s helpful to Trump’s argument to not be an officer to provide a quote stating that POTUS is an officer.

    It was stated quite plainly in 1787 that prosecution could follow impeachment and that the two procedures were not the same thing.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  149. DeSantis should drop out now and back Nikki if he has any hope of being her VP pick.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  150. Christmas Eve, 1968

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  151. DeSantis should drop out now and back Nikki if he has any hope of being her VP pick.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/24/2023 @ 6:23 pm

    Neither of these two things will happen.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  152. Y’all remember “The Ref” with Dennis Leary?

    SamG (4e6c22) — 12/24/2023 @ 9:05 am

    Very funny movie.

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  153. So, what IS the best Christmas movie that doesn’t have Bruce Willis in it? OR just a good one to watch.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/24/2023 @ 8:39 am

    Bad Santa

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  154. Merry Christmas to all.

    He is born!

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  155. A lot of ifs:
    ………….
    As Trump and his rivals enter the 2024 election, there are at least three signs of trouble for the front-running former president.
    ………….
    Adverse court rulings
    …………
    ………… Trump, his lawyers, and his campaign team must prepare for the possibility of as many as four criminal trials in a campaign year.
    ………….
    The Trump legal team is seeking to delay all of the criminal trials until after Election Day on Nov. 5, and for good reason: A criminal conviction would transform the presidential race.

    A Reuters/Ipsos poll this month reported that “some 31% of Republican respondents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony crime by a jury.”
    …………….
    Falling poll numbers; rising rivals

    Trump’s GOP rivals warn that his continued legal woes will eventually wear out voters who might start to consider alternatives.
    ……………
    Bad voter reaction

    If Trump underperforms in the Iowa caucuses……..

    If Haley defeats Trump in the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23……….

    If Haley does well in Iowa and wins in New Hampshire……..

    ……………Trump and his campaign aides said they are counting on a huge haul of delegates on March 5, the day of “Super Tuesday” primaries in more than a dozen states.

    They hope to have enough delegates to clinch the nomination after a March 19 set of big-state primaries that include Florida and Ohio.
    ………….
    If Trump is tried and convicted before the start of the Republican convention on July 15, his nomination could conceivably be challenged on the floor.
    …………

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  156. The link in post 156 should not have been blockquoted.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  157. @115 look what happened to gop when abortion issue got “solved” Justice tenny solves the slavery issue with dread scott decision. John Brown I think I will appeal the decision to a higher court sitting at harpers ferry and if I fail there I will appeal to the highest court in the land sitting on cemetery ridge, Gettysburg Pennsylvania starting on july 3 1863.

    asset (c658c2)

  158. @136 don’t forget kent state may 4 1970.

    asset (c658c2)

  159. A lot of ifs

    Yes, but they don’t all have to happen. Any two or three will be enough.

    He could also be struck by lightning out of a clear blue sky.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  160. None of your picks beats seventh sign let alone the seven seal for Xmas movies. Merry Xmas & happy kwansaa!

    asset (c658c2)

  161. How about a donald trump Xmas movie festival. Top 5 The blob. alien, preditor, the nineth gate and 120 days of salo. I would have added ed wood ;but trump is a draft dodger.

    asset (c658c2)

  162. @160 if he is struck it probably wont be lighting.

    asset (c658c2)

  163. Merry Christmas, everybody!

    nk (5f5478)

  164. Happy deranged Christmas, from my party’s standard bearer.

    THEY SPIED ON MY CAMPAIGN, LIED TO CONGRESS, CHEATED ON FISA, RIGGED A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, ALLOWED MILLIONS OF PEOPLE, MANY FROM PRISONS & MENTAL INSTITUTIONS, TO INVADE OUR COUNTRY, SCREWED UP IN AFGHANISTAN, & JOE BIDEN’S MISFITS & THUGS, LIKE DERANGED JACK SMITH, ARE COMING AFTER ME, AT LEVELS OF PERSECUTION NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN OUR COUNTRY??? IT’S CALLED ELECTION INTERFERENCE. MERRY CHRISTMAS!

    Paul Montagu (eb6306)

  165. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/24/2023 @ 6:22 pm

    It was stated quite plainly in 1787 that prosecution could follow impeachment and that the two procedures were not the same thing.

    Right. But Trump is arguing that prosecution cannot precede impeachment, even after a president’s term has expired. Now, not all criminal acts caan precede impeachment, And he’s also arguing that he can’t be prosecuted for anything within the outer scope of his official duties.. But that Supreme Court ruling was meant to cover things like illegal wiretaps (where there was a theory of law that it was allowed for national security purposes.)

    The only thing that comes close is his attempt to get the Department of Justice to declare that iit had found evidence of election fraud – but I don’t think that blatant misuse of official powers will be held to be non-prosecutorial. Perhaps a certain higher degree of intention might be required.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  166. Now, not all criminal acts caan precede impeachment,

    Should be: Now, not all criminal acts can be legitimate grounds for impeachment.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  167. Merry Christmas, to all those celebrating it today.

    Jim Miller (879e46)

  168. THEY SPIED ON MY CAMPAIGN,

    They did not The FBI carefully avoided doing that. They spied on a few people who were no longer affiliated with his campaign (to make Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid happy)

    LIED TO CONGRESS,

    James Comey told a big lie (which had to be corrected very soon after) right before he was fired, about some of Hillary Clinton’s emails being on Anthony Weiner’s computer because they had been sent to Huma Abedin to be printed. At first, people in Congress thought that Trump used that as a grounds fir firing him

    CHEATED ON FISA,

    Yes, and routinely no doubt,

    RIGGED A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION,

    Not really,

    ALLOWED MILLIONS OF PEOPLE, MANY FROM PRISONS & MENTAL INSTITUTIONS, TO INVADE OUR COUNTRY,

    Nonsense, but Trump will bring up any anti- immigration arguments until he is contradicted

    SCREWED UP IN AFGHANISTAN,

    That decision was made on the political level, not by the “permanent government”

    & JOE BIDEN’S MISFITS & THUGS, LIKE DERANGED JACK SMITH, ARE COMING AFTER ME, AT LEVELS OF PERSECUTION NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN OUR COUNTRY???

    Not everybody is simmply a2 tool for Joe Biden.

    IT’S CALLED ELECTION INTERFERENCE

    Well, you could have a case for calling it that, but it could also be considered legitimate.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  169. I forgot to mention the Christmas Eve message from the leader of my party. No matter how hard I squint, I’m not seeing any peace on Earth and goodwill toward men, just crazybus bile.

    WHY DID THE UNSELECT JANUARY 6th COMMITTEE OF POLITICAL HACKS & THUGS ILLEGALLY DELETE & DESTROY ALL OF THE EVIDENCE THEY USED TO WRITE THEIR FAKE REPORT. WHY DO THEY NOT SHOW THAT I USED THE WORDS “PEACEFULLY & PATRIOTICALLY” IN MY SPEECH? THEY ACTUALLY PRETENDED THAT THESE WORDS WERE NEVER UTTERED. CROOKED POLITICS!!!

    Paul Montagu (eb6306)

  170. But Trump is arguing that prosecution cannot precede impeachment, even after a president’s term has expired.

    Well, that’s nuts. Among other things, “impeachment” is not a criminal proceeding, but a political one. Some crimes don’t lead to impeachment and some things that do are not punishable as crimes.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  171. There are, however, no crimes that CANNOT lead to impeachment. You could impeach a president for ripping off the mattress tag if you have the votes.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  172. Merry Christmas, Y’all

    Focus on things that make you happy. Eat something really good.

    Dustin (8c16cd)

  173. A lot of ifs

    Yes, but they don’t all have to happen. Any two or three will be enough.

    He could also be struck by lightning out of a clear blue sky.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/24/2023 @ 10:15 pm

    A lot of those “ifs” and “mights” are extremely unlikely, just like your suggestion. It will be surprising that if any happened before the end of March. So far the court rulings are going Trump’s way (to the extent they delay his trials beyond Super Tuesday); and the prospects that Haley will come in first in NH are marginal at best.

    Depending on “any two or three” is like a football team that needs other teams to win or lose in order to get into the playoffs. The odds are better that Trump will clinch the nomination by the end of March than the “hope” of his rivals that his poll numbers will decline before then or that Republican voters get “tired” of the drama. So far they feed off the “drama.”

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  174. I pray that everyone’s Christmas is better than this family.

    Paul Montagu (eb6306)

  175. Merry Christmas, Y’all

    Focus on things that make you happy. Eat something really good.

    Amen!

    nk (bb1548)

  176. Double Amen.

    Spending Christmas day squirting about TrUmP!!! is a shame.

    Merry Christmas everyone!

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  177. “Donald, shut up about last election. Is Christmas.”
    –Melania

    Paul Montagu (eb6306)

  178. Paul Montagu (eb6306) — 12/25/2023 @ 7:57 am

    Trump should have aired his grievances on Saturday, which was Festivus.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  179. Airing a grievance today about someone airing their grievances today is funny in an idiot sort of way.

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  180. I meant “ironic.”

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  181. Why does anyone care about the ravings of a crazy old man with a dirty nappy? Merry Christmas everyone!

    Appalled (6dbd88)

  182. BuDuh (4214e4) — 12/25/2023 @ 10:21 am

    Right.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  183. BuDuh (4214e4) — 12/25/2023 @ 10:21 am

    And my comment wasn’t a grievance, I was pointing out that Trump missed the perfect opportunity for his.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  184. So just a complaint.

    🙄

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  185. Current VP candidate Kari Lake had a similar, classless Christmas message along the lines of her mentor.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  186. BuDuh (4214e4) — 12/25/2023 @ 11:51 am

    An observation.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  187. Trump should have aired his grievances on Saturday, which was Festivus.

    Rip Murdock (dace88) — 12/25/2023 @ 10:12 am

    Your choice of words.

    Have a great day, Rip!

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  188. BuDuh (4214e4) — 12/25/2023 @ 12:01 pm

    It was also humor and sarcasm, since Festivus doesn’t really exist as a holiday. Sorry you failed to understand that.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  189. The best humor needs to be explained.

    /sarc.

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  190. Kari Lake keeps digging her hole:

    …………
    In an extensive ruling Wednesday, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Jay Adleman said it is clear that the claims made by the failed Republican candidate for governor that (Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer) had sabotaged the election were not, as her lawyers claim, “mere rhetorical hyperbole.’’
    ………..
    That means the burden is now on her to back up, in court what she said about him.
    ………..
    Adleman said that Richer’s lawyers have enough allegations in his lawsuit against her, her campaign and the Save Arizona Fund which she has used to raise cash, to provide a basis to show that she and they acted with “actual malice.’’
    …………
    Wednesday’s ruling clears the way for a trial. And given that it was Lake who made the claims that Richer says were not just false but that she knew were false, she now has to prove they are true — something she has been unable to do in any of her still-ongoing legal efforts to get any court to overturn her 2022 loss to Democrat Katie Hobbs by more than 17,000 votes.
    ……………
    The case involves two separate claims made repeatedly by Lake about her loss and what she said was Richer’s role in all that.

    One involves the problems in Maricopa County on Election Day.
    …………
    What happened is that many of the printers — the number is in dispute — spit out images designed to go on 19-inch paper rather than 20-inch paper.)

    That made them unreadable by the tabulators which spit them back out. And that, in turn, created long lines at the vote centers.

    Lake charged that Richer and others did that deliberately, knowing that Republicans are more like to vote on Election Day than Democrats who tend to cast early ballots. And she said that some people, rather than wait in lines, simply left without voting, contributing to her loss.
    …………..
    But Richer, in his lawsuit, pointed out that neither he nor his office was responsible for Election Day operations but only for early voting. That was the responsibility of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.
    …………..
    Then there’s Lake’s claim that Richer “injected’’ about 300,000 “phony’’ early ballots received on Election Day into the final vote count, including at one point saying that “they had to sabotage Election Day.’’

    Richer, however, pointed out that Lake had made similar claims of intentional misconduct about the ballots to a trial judge who was considering her bid to overturn the election. And in that case, Richer said, the judge found “nothing to substantiate’’ Lake’s claim of intentional misconduct — a ruling that was made months before Lake made her comments charging Richer with sabotaging the election.

    Here, too, the judge said, that allows Richer to force Lake to prove her statements in a defamation lawsuit.
    ………….

    An investigation into the printing issue didn’t find any evidence of intentional misconduct but attributed the problems to equipment failures. The fact that the report was released prior to the time Lake made her charges was enough for the court to allow a jury to decide whether Lake’s claims amounted to defamation.

    Rip Murdock (dace88)

  191. In Bethlehem manger square they have a baby lying in a pile of rubble.

    asset (f13803)

  192. Ah, lloyd, thank you for making me thankful that Biden is in office. I remember when Trump was in office almost every day there would be something he did or said that made me pretty angry.

    With, Biden, we have to find our anger over… checks notes… him hanging stockings for the grandkids at Camp David (where they are spending Christmas) instead of the White House (where they are not spending Christmas). But then we can imagine nefarious reasons why he might hang his stockings where he’s having Christmas instead of where he isn’t.

    Nate (1f1d55)

  193. Is that the only thing that Biden has done that your find fault with?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  194. It’s really funny to watch the doctrinaire partisans post back and forth.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  195. Nate, you forgot to include a link to your story. Maybe because there is none. But, thanks for the fact-free claim. The facts I linked to have been around for four weeks, giving Biden plenty of time to concoct a better look. Kicking your four year old granddaughter to the curb isn’t really a big deal. Don’t get so upset about the Big Guy looking like a POS.

    lloyd (bbfc1c)

  196. Trump and Biden are tied among immigrant voters

    Quick, someone tell the Democrats. Replacement theory isn’t working.

    lloyd (bbfc1c)

  197. @199 misleading as older immigrant voters more likely to vote republican. Also young people think biden sucks almost as bad as hillary. Lucky bubba got his name redacted from epstein list. Generation Z votes democrat at higher rate then any other group and only half have turned 18. Millenials now out number boomers as republicans found out the hard way in 2022/2023 elections. Just finished watching movie about trump’s life its called “the blob!”

    asset (0be757)

  198. @199 misleading as older immigrant voters more likely to vote republican

    Immigrants who come from legal immigration and naturalization are probably terribly upset at the 10-year delays now occurring in processing legal immigrants due to the flooding of the system by pretend asylum seekers and Biden’s cosigning of their bullsh1t.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  199. Like Max von Sydow told Malcolm X at the showing of “The Third AOC” at the Kent State Film Festival, Trump’s supporters can let Trump poop on their Christmas if they want to, like he does with every holiday, holiday after holiday, but I would rather plan on leaving room for a slice of apple pie and half a dozen chocolate chip cookies. And it worked out just fine.

    You still like me, right?

    nk (db9d6f)

  200. lloyd (bbfc1c) — 12/25/2023 @ 10:05 pm

    Quick, someone tell the Democrats. Replacement theory isn’t working.

    It’s the Republicans who need to be told that it is not in line with reality. There’s no such plan to replace voters. (Maybe you can ascribe that poll result to malpractice of politics, if you want. Biden does not want to be seen as favoring immigration – he just wants to turn that into a non-issue so he gets nothing from either side)

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  201. Biden is also closing some border crossings, affecting some border communities. The whole matter is beyond his capabilities, although it also will be for most other politicians. (The Republican position is: Just bring back Trump)

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  202. Processing times, asylum claims… All things that Congress needs to deal with, like providing more funds for immigration judges so more cases can be processed in a timely manner.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  203. Not to be outdone with his deranged morning Christmas, Trump’s late morning deranged Christmas message starts with “Merry Christmas to all” and concludes with “ROT IN HELL” and “AGAIN, MERRY CHRISTMAS!” and heaping amounts of DARVO.

    Merry Christmas to all, including Crooked Joe Biden’s ONLY HOPE, Deranged Jack Smith, the out of control Lunatic who just hired outside attorneys, fresh from the SWAMP (unprecedented!), to help him with his poorly executed WITCH HUNT against “TRUMP” and “MAGA.” Included also are World Leaders, both good and bad, but none of which are as evil and “sick” as the THUGS we have inside our Country who, with their Open Borders, INFLATION, Afghanistan Surrender, Green New Scam, High Taxes, No Energy Independence, Woke Military, Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Iran, All Electric Car Lunacy, and so much more, are looking to destroy our once great USA. MAY THEY ROT IN HELL. AGAIN, MERRY CHRISTMAS!

    The RCP average has 63.8% of my party in favor of this lunatic’s nomination for president.

    Paul Montagu (966377)

  204. lloyd, it was in your link.

    Nate (1f1d55)

  205. I want to thank you once again for your tireless searching for all things Trump, Paul.

    You are better at this than any other fan of his that I have seen on the internet.

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  206. I think most of us had seen that one, BuDuh. Something about mixing a celebration of Christ with telling people to rot in hell made it stand out.

    Nate (1f1d55)

  207. Frontotemporal dementia. Or Satanism.

    Probably both.

    Trump is mentally ill, and whichever of his stooges write these tweets for him intend to inflame anger and hate in his supporters and elicit anger and resentment from his opponents.

    nk (db9d6f)

  208. I want to thank you once again for your tireless searching for all things Trump, Paul.

    Funny that you keep lying about that, BuDuh. There was no “searching”, tireless or otherwise.

    Paul Montagu (966377)

  209. We’ll see what happens in July. DeSantis excels in party infighting. If he maneuvers himself into being the VP, and they win, I foresee Trump being 25thed (Amendment) within six months. Maybe even before being sworn in.

    If they win.

    nk (db9d6f)

  210. @206

    Processing times, asylum claims… All things that Congress needs to deal with, like providing more funds for immigration judges so more cases can be processed in a timely manner.

    SamG (4e6c22) — 12/26/2023 @ 7:11 am

    Or, ya know, we can simply deport them back to Mexico and follow proper immigration pathways.

    The problem with illegal immigration, is that the incentives/disincenvites are whacked.

    Change that, and the illegal immigration would change.

    whembly (5f7596)

  211. ROT IN HELL is trending on Xitter. This one was mildly humorous.

    ROT IN HELL, 2 things you will never find in Trump’s bedroom, 1.) Gideons Bible 2.) Melania

    Paul Montagu (966377)

  212. @207

    The RCP average has 63.8% of my party in favor of this lunatic’s nomination for president.

    Paul Montagu (966377) — 12/26/2023 @ 7:27 am

    Blame the GOP leadership and big donors. They f’ed up royally such that Trump saw an opening.

    You’d think they learn this lesson, but looks like the beatings will continue.

    whembly (5f7596)

  213. I blame McConnell. He could’ve whipped his caucus to a two-thirds vote and a conviction.

    Paul Montagu (966377)

  214. @217

    I blame McConnell. He could’ve whipped his caucus to a two-thirds vote and a conviction.

    Paul Montagu (966377) — 12/26/2023 @ 8:01 am

    He’s in that “GOP leadership” I mentioned. 😉

    whembly (5f7596)

  215. @214: asylum claims require due process. It’s the law, not a political preference of any particular administration.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  216. It’s quite literally legal immigration.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  217. It’s the Republicans who need to be told that it is not in line with reality. There’s no such plan to replace voters

    I watch people’s feet, and Biden’s feet seem to be on that path.

    Kevin M (ed969f)


  218. Processing times, asylum claims… All things that Congress needs to deal with, like providing more funds for immigration judges so more cases can be processed in a timely manner.

    Or how about rejecting bogus “magic word” claims without a hearing? Customs agents don’t need a hearing to refuse entry at an airport. Fewer claims to adjudicate, fewer judges needed.

    Biden’s claim is that, after ramping up the influx that he needs more judges. Only a really dimwitted Republican would buy that.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  219. @222 – because due process and the legal rights of asylum claimants.

    I’m old enough to recall wait times for legal entry being over 20 years – from reports over a decade ago.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  220. The only way to stop the terrible and dangerous trek though Central America by people obviously desperate for a better life is to make it clear there is no pot of gold at the end.

    Failing that, reform our laws so that legal, truthful immigration by young workers with saleable skills (and their families) from Central America is given preference in normal order. That way they don’t have to pay criminals to bring them north and subject them to all kinds of danger and heartbreak, while simplifying the process.

    Apply at an embassy, get a number, when the number comes up, get on an airplane.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  221. If there are really millions of people fleeing repressive governments, as they might be in Venezuela, Nicaragua or Honduras, maybe we should look at regime change instead. I mean MILLIONS? How do we allow that?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  222. I’m old enough to recall wait times for legal entry being over 20 years – from reports over a decade ago.

    I know for a fact this is utter BS.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  223. We’ll see what happens in July. DeSantis excels in party infighting. If he maneuvers himself into being the VP, and they win, I foresee Trump being 25thed (Amendment) within six months. Maybe even before being sworn in.

    If they win.

    nk (db9d6f) — 12/26/2023 @ 7:54 am

    LOL! I doubt someone nicknamed “DeSanctimonious” will end up as the Nicknamer-in-Chief’s VP. And as I pointed out above, only the cabinet can invoke the 25th Amendment, and it would need to confirmed by a 2/3 vote of the House and Senate. At the rate things are going for DeSantis, he may end up with fewer than a 100 delegates at the Republican Convention.

    Trump v. DeSantis polling:

    National: Trump +50 (DeSantis tied with Haley for second)
    Iowa: Trump +32 (DeSantis +2 over Haley, essentially tied for second place)
    New Hampshire: Trump +37 (DeSantis +2 essentially tied Ramaswamy, fourth place)
    South Carolina: Trump +37 (DeSantis -8 behind Haley, third place)
    Florida: Trump +39 (DeSantis second place)

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  224. @214: asylum claims require due process. It’s the law, not a political preference of any particular administration.

    It’s a law, and the GOP is holding everything hostage to change that law. There is no constitutional right to asylum here. And try to enter the USA for a visit with a drug conviction at home. There is not hearing at all, they just put you back on a plane.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  225. @224 so we’re back to Congress changing the law. Thank you.
    @225 it’s not just their governments: it’s that “the applicant must establish that race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion was or will be at least one central reason for persecuting the applicant.” Their governments don’t have to take direct persecutory action against them for this to apply.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  226. Or, ya know, we can simply deport them back to Mexico and follow proper immigration pathways.

    The problem with illegal immigration, is that the incentives/disincenvites are whacked.

    The problem with legal immigration is that there is no legal pathway for someone who does not already have family here. NONE.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  227. * for someone FROM CENTRAL AMERICA who does not have family here.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  228. @228 our laws regarding refugees (e.g. asylum claimants) stems from our membership in the Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees treaty of 1967. Our laws fulfill the obligations of those treaties, and any changes must fulfill those obligations as well.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  229. This thread and infographic are pretty useful for understanding how difficult it is: https://x.com/David_J_Bier/status/1668576125809745922?s=20

    SamG (4e6c22)

  230. SamG, why are you so defensive of this nonsense? You are making JUST the kind of arguments that make people think there’s a hidden agenda.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  231. It is my understanding that conservatives respect the law and the legal obligations. “Shutting down the border” doesn’t meet our legal obligations; deporting an asylum claimant without due process violates our own laws – and thus the 5th and 14th amendments come into play.

    My points have been that it is incumbent on Congress as a whole to make a workable system that is efficient; meets our legal obligations; and that it is not in the interest of the GOP to actually do so.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  232. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/3541196-california-will-offer-health-insurance-to-all-undocumented-immigrants/

    Why does it feel like the Communist left is trying to Cloward-Piven society and destroy America?

    NJRob (808fcc)

  233. Once again, asylum requests state that they must stay in the first “safe nation. ” By traveling through Mexico they are violating the law. Do not pass go, do not collect $200.

    Immediate deportation. No hearing needed

    NJRob (808fcc)

  234. Since when is Mexico a safe nation?

    SamG (4e6c22)

  235. There is no requirement that the US admit any particular number of refugees, only that it have a process for admitting some. US law also prohibits discriminations of various types.

    Normal immigration into the US is limited to an annual quota, and a subquota per country of not more than (iirc) 7% of the total. This makes immigration from Central America much harder than immigration from, say, Morocco, as proximity and economic desire drive application from Central America.

    On top of that is a preference system, ranging from spouses of US citizens at the top, through children, through relatives of US residents and down a the bottom of that list are those who have no prior connection. This makes the immigration tend to favor dependents of current residents and disfavor economic migrants from nearby countries.

    But wait! All this can be bypassed, and country quotas can be ignored, if one claims to be a displaced person or other refugee. So the “magic words” which everyone uses. Apparently, the US allows several million refugees to enter every year — without a country quota — and proximity drives the numbers.

    It’s gaming the system and everyone knows it. Like preferences lately for dishonest people, the “law” is used by people with no actual respect for it in order to get over and all those who defend this — knowing it’s a game — because “it’s the law” are beneath contempt.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  236. Kevin, that means making a better immigration and asylum claim system which requires Congress – not POTUS – to invest money and resources to process applications in an efficient and timely manner.

    That is not the proposal from the GOP.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  237. Since when is Mexico a safe nation?

    Compared to what? Lebanon? Syria? Angola? I could argue that Washington DC or Baltimore are unsafe by some measures.

    But that’s not the point.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  238. That is not the proposal from the GOP.

    No, the GOP proposal is to lower the asylum quota and to admit refugees in a way that the existing judges are not swamped. This does not contravene ANY treaty as the several immigration and refugee treaties are extremely vague about numbers and methods.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  239. Sam,

    Do you argue that most of these asylum seekers came here out of fear, or do you admit they come out of economic necessity?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  240. @242 changing the number that gets approved does nothing to change the number of applications that are submitted. You still need personnel to process those in a timely manner, and that means funds/resources to do so. The GOP plan is to put lipstick on a pig.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  241. 243 ¿Porque no los dos?

    SamG (4e6c22)

  242. More importantly:

    Due. Process.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  243. The GOP plan is to put lipstick on a pig.

    Then, if it would not do a thing, why don’t you let them?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  244. Due. Process.

    No due process is required at the border. No foreign person has a right to enter.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  245. ’cause I view it as a waste of time and continuation of pig-headed obstinacy in lieu of real reform efforts that are sorely needed, solely for the purposes of their electoral prospects.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  246. 243 ¿Porque no los dos?

    Because the latter is not a valid reason for entry and the fact that they all claim “asylum” is indicative not of the Rule of Law, but in its breakdown.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  247. Oh, so a particular social group cannot be persecuted via economic means?

    Due process is required the minute they make claim to be a refugee. And – because of proximity – Central Americans present themselves at the border. That puts them into our jurisdiction: so again, more resources to process such claims in a timely manner is in all of our interests.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  248. Due process is required the minute they make claim to be a refugee.

    “Due process” means very little actually. I get “due process” when I get a speeding ticket, but it’s really rather streamlined.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  249. Due process is required the minute they make claim to be a refugee.

    So, you admit that these are “magic words” that cause us to do stupid things?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  250. The speeding ticket itself is a summons: the due process part is whether you plead guilty and pay the ticket, or decide to go to court to plead not guilty – where resources are required to process the claim from the state and your arguments against said claims.

    Here’s the thing: I think you and I are ultimately in agreement that a streamlined system for legal immigration is sorely needed, where one can apply for and receive approval/denial for various purposes outside the US prior to entry.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  251. https://freebeacon.com/biden-administration/they-justified-hamas-terrorism-now-biden-is-letting-them-dole-out-taxpayer-dollars/

    Biden handing out tens of millions of taxpayer dollars to terrorist supporting organizations because they are anti-American leftists.

    Keep supporting him

    NJRob (0e6723)

  252. Since when is Mexico a safe nation?

    SamG (4e6c22) — 12/26/2023 @ 10:06 am

    Since the law stipulates they are.

    NJRob (0e6723)

  253. The law does not stipulate Mexico is a safe third country, and there is no agreement between the US and Mexico that it is one – which is required under the law.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  254. Yes it does. Your desire to support the invasion of the US speaks volumes about how you feel towards the nation and people that granted you such a cushy life.

    NJRob (0e6723)

  255. No, it does not.

    We have an agreement with Canada, we do not have one with Mexico.
    You may be think about the “Remain in Mexico” rule from the Trump admin – which is not a law – which was enjoined by the courts.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  256. Here’s the thing: I think you and I are ultimately in agreement that a streamlined system for legal immigration is sorely needed, where one can apply for and receive approval/denial for various purposes outside the US prior to entry.

    The problem I have is that the US needs to be able to enforce its border and processes that game the law and entry are wrong. Just wrong. You talk about “due process” but over a million people have been admitted to this country and been given work permits, with NO DUE PROCESS, only a claim of refugee status.

    Is it a lack of due process to refuse admission until after some process is complete? Is it “due process” to accept claims at face value and offer maybe a decade of parole without even a cursory check? I think the answer to both of those is “No.”

    I think that what is happening is that the wind is being sown, and the whirlwind that comes in reaction will not be to my liking, or yours.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  257. The claim starts a process: that the process takes so damn long is an indictment of our abilities to process claims, not that claims are being made.

    Treat root causes, not symptoms: otherwise we just kick the can further down the road.

    The whole point of not doing so is to sow discontent. That should not be rewarded, and it’s better to be honest about that strategy.

    If there was any actual desire to resolve the issue we’d dust off the 2013 immigration bill, update it, and get it passed – at least in the Senate – and put that ball in the House’s court.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  258. The compromise needs to be twofold:

    One, no one is admitted under an asylum claim unless the expected time until adjudication is reasonable. Right now it is not.

    Two, some increase in ability to adjudicate is needed, in order to reduce the backlog, but attempting to match the influx will simply increase the demand.

    Now, it would help A LOT if there is a higher bar for admission, with weaker claimants required to wait in Mexico. The more people waiting in Mexico the less attraction there will be fore more dubious claimants.

    And even after all that, there needs to be a limit. We cannot accept the world’s refugees. Some sparrows may fall. You only need to look at what mass immigration has done to Southern California, Arizona, Texas and New York.

    Infrastructure cannot be built fast enough and internal displacement is at least as bad as displacement elsewhere. A crappy 2 bedroom apartment in Los Angeles is out of the reach of much of the working class. Traffic in L.A. is back above pre-pandemic levels and there are shantytowns developing wherever government allows them.

    I get it that there is a desire to help people, but you cannot save every puppy in the pound.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  259. Treat root causes, not symptoms: otherwise we just kick the can further down the road.

    Conquer central America, replace their governments and police forces, institute a $3 minimum wage and build schools and hospitals, with an eye to eventual admission as states.

    That is what you would have to do to treat the “root causes.”

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  260. Lack of housing is due far more to local regulations preventing housing from being built in the numbers/density to meet demand.

    Allow builders to build, and there’ll be more than enough infrastructure to support demand.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  261. At minimum: invest in the Americas, improve their economies, with requirements for anti-corruption benchmarks.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  262. With what money? We are trillions in debt with no ability to repay.

    Are you housing any illegal aliens? Any fake asylum seekers? Or do you just pretend and cheerlead the destruction of the US?

    NJRob (2d325d)

  263. Destruction of the United States!??

    I guess The extreme right Republicans need you to believe in that in order to gain support for their policies. Disease! Terrorists! Lots of (there are no terrorists coming yet, not only because any smuggler would fear what would happen to them but because no terrorist organization would risk a plot being discovered. They are claiming they stopped people, but not that they detained people or stopped a plot. This is like the TSA lists no doubt. Not that something couldn’t happen later, but they have plenty of people allied with terrorists in the USA already, and are trying to gin up others to join in something.)

    Even if this migration was bad, there is a lot of ruin in a country, said Adam Smith.

    What about people being released from prison?? Or never being prosecuted at all? These people are an improvement over some other people. And every New Yorker or ex-New Yorker knows that

    The latest complaint? People are wandering miles from Floyd Bennet Field begging. Obviously they wouldn’t be doing that if people weren’t giving them something.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  264. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2023/12/21/us-troops-in-iraq-and-syria-have-faced-over-100-attacks-since-october/

    Here’s the Biden so many love and think is a better President than the alternative.

    NJRob (2d325d)

  265. Sammy, how many illegals have you let stay at your home?

    NJRob (2d325d)

  266. One article fills out something in the other.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/21/world/middleeast/abu-toha-palestinian-poet-gaza.html

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/01/01/a-palestinian-poets-perilous-journey-out-of-gaza

    Not clear if he still in Egypt. This guy worked for UNWRA

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  267. NJRob (2d325d) — 12/26/2023 @ 1:11 pm

    Sammy, how many illegals have you let stay at your home?

    This is not the same thing. The question is if, not only do you not want to help, but you want to stop everybody else from helping.

    Because maybe keeping people poor makes other people rich. Or what is the thinking? The failure of the welfare state?

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  268. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/26/2023 @ 12:38 pm

    At minimum: invest in the Americas,

    Won’t happen without the rule of law. And why not complain that any money invested there could instead create American jobs?

    improve their economies,

    Very difficult to do. That’s sort of the Biden policy, which is nonsense. And you’d have to improve the living standard of at least dozen people to prevent one migrant.

    with requirements for anti-corruption benchmarks.

    And if they are real, and if they are not met, what then?

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  269. 264. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/26/2023 @ 12:37 pm

    Allow builders to build, and there’ll be more than enough infrastructure to support demand.

    There are so many ways to reduce the cost of building new housing (like prefabricated housing) but government policy for the past 75 to 90 years has been to drive up the price of housing.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  270. Sammy,

    you want everyone else to pay for your preferences. At least put your money (and home) where your mouth is.

    Should Israel be required to let in unlimited illegals like you want us to? Right of return?

    NJRob (2d325d)

  271. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/26/2023 @ 12:29 pm

    Conquer central America, replace their governments and police forces, institute a $3 minimum wage and build schools and hospitals, with an eye to eventual admission as states.

    That is what you would have to do to treat the “root causes.”

    And of course you’d get more migration – maybe mostly legal – in the meantime. You’d also get more US citizens retiring there.

    The most important root cause is previous migration, and international communications. Telephones, Facebook, money transfers, tourism.
    ok.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  272. NJRob (2d325d) — 12/26/2023 @ 1:23 pm

    you want everyone else to pay for your preferences.

    The cost is trivial. And that argument applies both to legal and illegal immigration, except that illegal, or conditional, immigration is cheaper. Unless you arrange things so that it costs money, and people feed off the crisis.

    It’s actually a net benefit But that argument can’t be used – it amounts to “replacement.”

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  273. I agree that cultural or demographic considerations could be a valid argument in certain places, but the economic ones are crackpot ideas.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  274. Not held by any serious economist.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  275. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/26/2023 @ 12:28 pm

    I get it that there is a desire to help people, but you cannot save every puppy in the pound.

    True. But it is one thing to have circumstances prevent it, and it is another thing to have law. People hate kill shelters.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  276. The Republican border policy is deterrence, not control. And everyone knows that the best deterrent is the death penalty and that is what would happen.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  277. Sammy,

    you deny cultural differences and the incentives put in place to ensure criminal immigration on the dole. Our society will collapse under your desired outcome.

    NJRob (2d325d)

  278. Sammy should Israel be required to accept illegals the same way you think we should?

    NJRob (2d325d)

  279. Deterrence not control, because control costs money – and lots of it.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  280. It is replacement. There’s no such thing as America being a magic place that will forever be the destination of choice. Your choices ensure our destruction just as leftist policies do.

    NJRob (2d325d)

  281. People hate kill shelters.

    But the money is somehow never there. In part because people want low taxes and in part because the shelters just hire more staff with more money and still can’t pay for the food.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  282. Seeing the writing on the wall:

    Vivek Ramaswamy’s presidential campaign has stopped spending money on television ads and does not have any TV ad reservations booked, according to his campaign and data from an ad-tracking firm.

    As recently as the first full week of December, the GOP entrepreneur’s campaign spent more than $200,000 on TV ads. Last week, it spent just $6,000 on ads — all of it on TV — figures from the firm AdImpact show.
    ……….
    The shift in strategy comes less than a month before the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses — the first contest in the GOP presidential nominating process — and the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary.
    ……….
    In early November, Ramaswamy’s campaign announced that it planned to spend over $10 million on ads — broadcast, cable, radio, digital and direct mail — in Iowa and New Hampshire. Since that announcement, the campaign has spent $2.2 million on TV, digital and radio ads, according to AdImpact.

    ………. In the same week that Ramaswamy spent just $6,000 on TV ads, Trump’s campaign spent $1.1 million, followed by Haley’s $1 million, DeSantis’ $270,000 and Christie’s $88,000.

    That’s in addition to the ad money being spent by the super PACs backing Ramaswamy’s opponents.
    ………..
    American Exceptionalism PAC, which backs Ramaswamy, has not spent money on ads of any kind since October.
    ##########

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  283. The importance of charging someone in the jurisdiction where the crime was committed:

    An appeals court on Tuesday reversed a conviction against former Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb., for lying to federal authorities about an illegal campaign contribution, saying he should not have been tried in Los Angeles.

    In its ruling, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit said Fortenberry’s trial “took place in a state where no charged crime was committed,” noting that he made false statements during interviews with federal agents at his home in Lincoln, Nebraska, and in his lawyer’s office in Washington, D.C.

    “Fortenberry’s convictions are reversed so that he may be retried, if at all, in a proper venue,” the court said.
    ………
    A federal jury in Los Angeles convicted Fortenberry in March 2022, finding the nine-term congressman guilty of one count of scheming to falsify and conceal material facts and two counts of making false statements to federal investigators. He resigned shortly after the conviction and has denied wrongdoing.

    In June 2022, Fortenberry was sentenced to two years of probation, a $25,000 fine and community service for lying to federal authorities.

    Fortenberry, who was a member of the House Appropriations Committee, was charged in 2021 with lying to the FBI about a $30,000 contribution to his 2016 re-election campaign from Gilbert Chagoury of Nigeria. It is unlawful for foreign nationals to contribute to federal candidates in U.S. elections.

    Prosecutors said Chagoury used “straw donors” to make contributions equaling $30,000 to Fortenberry’s re-election campaign during a Los Angeles fundraiser in 2016.
    ………..

    This is why Trump was indicted in Washington DC for election interference, and in Florida for violating the Espionage Act.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  284. Vivek Ramaswamy’s presidential campaign has stopped spending money on television ads

    Trump is concerned about his margins and has told his catspaw to get out and endorse him

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  285. The importance of charging someone in the jurisdiction where the crime was committed:

    That pesky 6th Amendment:

    In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defense.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  286. SamG @259 “You may be think about the “Remain in Mexico” rule from the Trump admin – which is not a law – which was enjoined by the courts.”

    It was enjoined because Biden was intent on ditching the policy, not because it wasn’t a law, or that there was anything legally problematic about it. Two states sued to keep it in place, and the courts held that the president could halt it. Biden could’ve continued it, if he wanted to. He didn’t want to. There was nothing wrong with Remain in Mexico, other than it worked to stem the tide, and that’s not what Democrats want. To claim the problem is waiting for a solution from Congress is just bullsh1t.

    lloyd (68d2f8)

  287. Congress has a solution, anyway. It’s called HR2 which the Democrats don’t want. The Democrats don’t want anything other than more money to keep the turnstiles rotating. They have no solution, because they don’t want one, and they’ll stop Ukraine aid to make the point.

    lloyd (68d2f8)

  288. It used to matter more than it does now. Lawyers cost money. It doesn’t make much of a difference to Hunter Biden where he is charged,

    But this is still a precaution against judge and jury shopping

    Sammy FInkelman (1d215a)

  289. lloyd (68d2f8) — 12/26/2023 @ 4:04 pm

    Biden could’ve continued it, if he wanted to. He didn’t want to. There was nothing wrong with Remain in Mexico, other than it worked to stem the tide, and that’s not what Democrats want.

    It was a loophole and required the consent of Mexico, which could be achieved by pressure, but yes, Democrats didn’t want it.

    Sammy FInkelman (1d215a)

  290. 242. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/26/2023 @ 10:18 am

    No, the GOP proposal is to lower the asylum quota

    How can you have a quota on asylum? That’s grading on a curve.

    and to admit refugees in a way that the existing judges are not swamped.

    Republicans refuse to add more judges.

    Sammy FInkelman (1d215a)

  291. Revie w of the year, and some predictions:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/full-transcript-of-face-the-nation-on-december-24-2023

    Sammy FInkelman (1d215a)

  292. Sammy should Israel be required to accept illegals the same way you think we should?

    NJRob (2d325d) — 12/26/2023 @ 1:36 pm

    Sammy?

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  293. Bien will probably agree to turn over to Ukraine seized Russian

    As for the bill – the Senate negotiators are reaching for a bill that will lose 10 Republican Senators because they don’t want aid to Ukraine anyway and 20 because they don’t like the immigration provisions and will lose 20 Democratic Senators because they don’t like the changes in immigration law – and whereever they wind up that’s the Senate bill.

    The House may not accept it. preferring to go to the public on the issue of who is too stubborn and who should give in.

    If no supplemental aid bill, probably no continuing resolution either.

    Sammy FInkelman (1d215a)

  294. No, the GOP proposal is to lower the asylum quota

    How can you have a quota on asylum? That’s grading on a curve.

    No, that’s allowing only so many in at a time. We are not required to accept the entire population of Central America just because they show up at the door. We are only required to accept *some*.

    and to admit refugees in a way that the existing judges are not swamped.

    Republicans refuse to add more judges.

    Then you have to limit the applicant pool, which is, oddly, exactly what the GOP is demanding.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  295. Sammy should Israel be required to accept illegals the same way you think we should?

    After all, prior to 10/7, many Palestinians wanted to be free of Hamas and could easily call themselves “refugees.” But Israel was not letting them in.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  296. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/26/2023 @ 2:47 pm

    Businessmen don’t get rich by throwing good money after pad. Ramaswamy’s numbers in Iowa (6%) and New Hampshire (about the same) are trivial when compared to Trump’s current leads (Trump +38 in Iowa and +19 in NH).

    Even if Trump comes in second place in either state, he wins delegates. Neither will be the death of his campaign.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  297. According to a Washington Post columnist (initials MT) they’re ;looking for 60 votes, half Dem and half Rep

    I wrote

    the Senate negotiators are reaching for a bill that will lose 10 Republican Senators because they don’t want aid to Ukraine anyway and 20 because they don’t like the immigration provisions and will lose 20 Democratic Senators…

    I meant for a total 20 Rep Senators,

    The House may not accept it,”Then both parties will go the country on the issue of which party should have given in in order to pass a bill: The Republicans on Ukraine aid, or the Democrats on immigration law changes? Or the Republicans on the continuing resolution because this will be stuck in limbo too,

    Aid to Israel will be passed separately, with the issue being how and whethhhher it is “paid for”

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  298. As I suggested before, Biden’s insistence on accepting every Central American who is not patently lying about being a refugee is going to sow the wind. It is one of the things that drive people into MAGA’s arms. And should Trump win office again, it will be the whirlwind.

    Picture 100 square miles of West Texas fenced off as deportation holding, policed by the Texas national Guard. Manzanar writ large. It could happen if this goes on long enough and people get fed up.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  299. Even if Trump comes in second place in either state, he wins delegates. Neither will be the death of his campaign.

    No, but Ramaswamy is Trump’s creature.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  300. @290 so then you agree Mexico is not legally a safe third country under the law, just under this policy; and adding in @293 for this point: Mexico has stated in February 2023 that they reject any efforts to re-instate the policy. It’s going to take an actual legal agreement between the US and Mexico to get them to be a legal STC.

    @302 gotta prove their claims are invalid. The GOP is going to have to negotiate on what happens, and assumedly there is no interest in doing so because they don’t really want the issue to be solved.

    So break out your favorite method of making popcorn, and pull up a seat.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  301. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/26/2023 @ 5:08 pm

    y Palestinians wanted to be free of Hamas and could easily call themselves “refugees.” But Israel was not letting them in.

    It did extract a few intelligence assets, Israel wanted other countries to let Gazans emigrate.

    About 10%, mostly young, left in the past five years (not to Arab countries mostly – they weren’t allowed)- the ones who got an education legally, the ones who did not illegally and some drowned trying to go to Europe.

    Israel is still interested in that:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-minister-calls-voluntary-emigration-gazans-2023-11-14/

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  302. Before October 7:

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/poor-living-conditions-trigger-mass-migration-from-gaza/3009581

    “My 24-year-old son Mohamed immigrated from Gaza for Greece a week ago,” Fares Alyan, 47, a resident of Beit Lahia town, north of Gaza City, told Anadolu.

    “My son lost hope of any improvement in the living conditions or a better future in Gaza,” he added.

    Mohamed worked in the agricultural sector for more than 10 years.

    “His daily wage was about 20 shekels ($5.5), which never fulfilled his daily needs,” Alyan said.

    “My son decided to leave Gaza permanently in search of a better job and a better life,” the Palestinian father said.

    Alyan said his son paid over $4,000 to traffickers to help him migrate from Gaza toward the Greek coast.

    “He sailed aboard a rubber boat amid high risks, but he safely reached the Greek shores,” he added.

    Alyan also pointed out that his nephew, wife, two children, and sister also decided to leave Gaza due to the harsh living conditions in the enclave.

    According to Alyan, around 50 young Palestinians from their neighborhood had migrated from Gaza in September.

    There are no official estimates of the number of Palestinians who migrated from Gaza. Local authorities, however, say that the number of migrants is at the usual annual rate….

    Hamas was still counting them.

    But on October 7 or so, the border to Egypt was tightky sealed,

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  303. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/26/2023 @ 5:14 pm

    Ramaswamy is running to be Trump’s successor in 2028; but I think that works only if Trump wins in 2024. If he loses the general election, the ties that bind MAGAWorld together will fray.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  304. Sammy,

    Should Israel be required to let all the refugees from their neighboring states enter the nation and gain status as you demand of us?

    This isn’t a difficult question. Why are you refusing to answer it?

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  305. The only question that should guide immigration policy — including asylum — especially asylum — is “What’s in it for us?” “Us” meaning America.

    Unfortunately, to the people making immigration policy “us” means themselves. Their constituencies, their special interests, their Benjamins. And there’s a lot of promiscuous backscratching — “I’ll vote for yours if you vote for mine” — involved. And it has been out of control since the early 1970s.

    nk (bb1548)

  306. @304 “so then you agree Mexico is not legally a safe third country under the law, just under this policy”

    No. The law says nothing about Mexico being safe or unsafe. Nor does Biden’s policy of not making use of Remain in Mexico. He simply isn’t interested in using it, because it’s effective. It has nothing to do with Mexico being unsafe.

    lloyd (753f61)

  307. Remain in Mexico worked. It helped drastically reduce illegal aliens invading our nation and reduced a lot of the pressure on southern states. But that isn’t of interest to the left who wants to ruin southern states because they vote primarily for Republicans and because the left wants to Cloward-Piven the nation.

    I want to know why Sammy thinks we should allow open borders for all who reach here but refuses to answer if Israel should be held to the same idea.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  308. That’s just too bad:

    Ukraine claimed on Tuesday to have carried out an airstrike in Crimea that destroyed a Russian Navy tank landing ship in what would be, if confirmed, the third instance of major losses of Russian military hardware in less than a week.

    In a post on Telegram, Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk thanked personnel involved in “the destruction of the Novocherkask large landing ship” while it was in the port of Feodosia in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.
    ……….
    The Russian Defense Ministry said the Novocherkask had been “damaged” in a Ukrainian attack in a statement reported by the state-run TASS news agency.

    The Russia-appointed head of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, earlier acknowledged via a statement that there had been “an enemy attack in [the] Feodosia area,” adding that “detonation has stopped and the fire has been localized.”The Russian Defense Ministry said the Novocherkask had been “damaged” in a Ukrainian attack in a statement reported by the state-run TASS news agency.
    ……….
    Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu “reported to [President Vladimir Putin] about the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ attack on Feodosia and the damage to the large landing ship Novocherkask,” a statement released by the Kremlin said Tuesday.
    ………
    The ship is designed for beach landings with bow and stern doors and the ability to accommodate up to 25 armored personnel carriers on its vehicle deck.

    Oleshchuk, the Ukrainian commander, said the vessel had been carrying Iran-made Shahed attack drones.
    ……….
    Ukraine also claimed in September that the Novocherkask’s sister ship, the Minsk, had been destroyed in an attack on the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea.
    ……….

    I would hate to be in Shoigu’s shoes. One day he will take trip too many to Putin’s office to give him bad news.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  309. That article was published October 6, 2023

    More:

    Economy expert Mohamed Abu Jiab said the mass exodus from Gaza has turned into a “phenomenon”.

    “Demand for visas through travel agencies has been on the rise,” Abu Jiab told Anadolu.

    “Entire families and youths have migrated from the territory,” he added.

    Palestinian activists in Gaza shared on their social media accounts what seems to be legally binding agreements for loans to be paid once the migrant reaches Europe and starts working.

    Abu Jiab cited poverty, unemployment and food insecurity as the main reasons for the mass exodus from Gaza.

    “The mass migration will cause Gaza to lose its competencies at various levels,” he warned, calling for a government plan “to reduce the number of people leaving the strip.”

    According to the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor, 61.6% of Gaza’s population lives in poverty.

    The unemployment rate in Gaza reached about 47% by the end of 2022, according to Palestinian official figures.

    Officials’ denial For their part, local authorities deny the mass exodus from Gaza, saying reports about migration aim to “mislead” the public.

    “The numbers of Palestinians leaving and returning to Gaza are at their usual annual rate,” the General Authority for Crossings and Borders of the Hamas-run Interior Ministry said in a statement.

    According to travel data through the Rafah border crossing, 113,234 Palestinians departed Gaza since the start of this year, while 116,651 people returned to the strip.

    The authority blamed the presence of only one visa office for the crowdedness of Palestinians seeking to obtain a visa to travel to Türkiye.

    “The vast majority of people seeking to travel to Türkiye are humanitarian cases either for treatment, scholarships, work or visiting relatives,” the statement said.

    The authority warned against circulating “wrong figures” about the number of migrants from Gaza.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  310. Israel is Displacement Theory, NJRob. It has to take in every person with a Jewish grandparent.

    It is more than a poem on Israel’s figurative Statue of Liberty. It is Israel’s foundational law.

    And not all of them move on to Long Island to run for George Santos’s seat. They stay to share nightmarish future prospects with the Palestinians.

    nk (4965e7)

  311. If you live in CA, or maybe even if you don’t, please sign this change.org petition opposing the CA legislature’s disingenuous proposal to gut Prop 209 (that outlawed racial preferences in state government).

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  312. Ramaswamy is running to be Trump’s successor in 2028;

    Mini Me

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  313. Nk,

    so their ancestry and heritage matters. I agree.

    Now do America.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  314. Now do America.

    I already did:

    The only question that should guide immigration policy — including asylum — especially asylum — is “What’s in it for us?” “Us” meaning America.

    nk (4965e7)

  315. You did nk. I stand and applaud.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  316. https://hotair.com/headlines/2023/12/26/the-us-migrant-invasion-was-carefully-planned-n601090

    A network of NGOs, or non-governmental organizations, seems to be playing a powerful role in coordinating the large-scale invasion of illegals at the US southern border.

    The new website Muckraker revealed a treasure trove of “mass migration blueprints,” handed out by NGOs across South and Central America to illegals with details about their route to the US.

    “The collapse of the US southern border is the result of a carefully planned and deliberately executed industrial mass migration program,” Muckraker said…

    What’s becoming increasingly evident is that a network of NGOs funded partly by the US taxpayer but by other countries and corporations are covertly facilitating the invasion of illegals at the US southern border, as well as distributing them across the US into progressive metro areas.

    According to an August report by progressive left-leaning media watchdog organization Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting, President Biden’s Department of Homeland Security allocated $363 million to NGOs to assist illegal aliens once in the US.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  317. @207 what makes you think its still your party unless you are a populist. 64% trump also add vivak & desatan you get close to 75% of rethugliKKKan party populist. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out!

    asset (6541f4)

  318. @263 Not that needed. Just tell the dictators of central and south america except for nicuragua and venezuela we put in place. Stop them from leaving or our C.I.A. who put you in power will replace you with those waiting to be given power by our C.I.A. Remember what we did to Allende, Lumumba, Mosadek, Diem and many others like grenada and dominican republic 1965. Send in the marines!

    asset (6541f4)

  319. Trotting out all the canards.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  320. America’s theologian AOC that like the palestinian children of today Jesus was born in a manger under threat of death and Abraham was the father of both!

    asset (6541f4)

  321. @323 Glad you agree. For AOC’s critiques who yelled for Barabbas when pilate tried to save him. Who ordered the deaths of all the babies in bethlehem? How many of the thousands of dead babies killed by netanayahu’s angry failure attacked Israel on Oct. 7?

    asset (6541f4)

  322. Just a reminder that the ramblings of asset are what you support when you vote for leftist candidates.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  323. https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2023/12/26/22-50144.pdf

    Former Rep Fortenberry’s conviction for allegedly lying to the FBI has been overturned.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  324. @246

    More importantly:

    Due. Process.

    SamG (4e6c22) — 12/26/2023 @ 10:24 am

    The can have Due. Process.

    In Mexico, or the next closest safe harbor nation.

    Or, better yet, I want the POTUS to shut down the border in defense of this country.

    whembly (5f7596)

  325. asset is a put-on. Just trolling to annoy.

    But he does do a yeoman’s job with a “there but for the grace of God” patina that makes people reluctant to flame him; and syntax and spelling designed to defeat writing style analysis programs.

    nk (4965e7)

  326. Trump to remain on Michigan’s primary ballot:

    …………
    The Michigan Court of Claims judge who first got the case said state law doesn’t give election officials any leeway to police the eligibility of presidential primary candidates. He also said the case raised a political question that shouldn’t be decided in the courts.

    His decision was upheld by the Michigan Court of Appeals, which said: “At the moment, the only event about to occur is the presidential primary election. But as explained, whether Trump is disqualified is irrelevant to his placement on that particular ballot.”

    The order from the Michigan Supreme Court was unsigned, and the court did not release a vote count.
    …………….
    The anti-Trump challengers “have identified no analogous provision in the Michigan Election Law that requires someone seeking the office of President of the United States to attest to their legal qualification to hold the office,” Justice Elizabeth Welch wrote, comparing Michigan law to Colorado’s election code.
    ……………..

    Trump is the leading Republican candidate in Michigan according to a WaPo/Monmouth University poll released a couple of weeks ago; with Trump +50 over DeSantis and Haley tied at 13 percent.

    Michigan’s primary is on February 27th.

    Rip Murdock (906288)

  327. Former Rep Fortenberry’s conviction for allegedly lying to the FBI has been overturned.

    NJRob (eb56c3) — 12/27/2023 @ 5:33 am

    On jurisdictional grounds but not on the merits.

    Fortenberry was convicted of lying in Los Angeles when the lying took place in Lincoln NB and Washington DC. He can be retried in those jurisdictions. See post 287.

    Rip Murdock (906288)

  328. whembly (5f7596) — 12/27/2023 @ 6:37 am

    Would “shutting the border down” include all cross border trade and travel?

    Rip Murdock (906288)

  329. A Republican being tried in LA or DC is the same as a Chinese dissident being tried in Peking.

    NJRob (83230b)

  330. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, Washington DC is the jurisdiction where his alleged election interference crimes took place.

    Rip Murdock (906288)

  331. The 6th amendment is contradictory. Trump cannot get the impartial jury he’s constitutionally entitled to in the district where his alleged crimes took place.

    lloyd (e8e092)

  332. “Unfortunately for Donald Trump, Washington DC is the jurisdiction where his alleged election interference crimes took place.”

    It’s also unfortunate for the prosecution, unless you believe the State has no interest in having the verdict taken seriously.

    lloyd (e8e092)

  333. lloyd (e8e092) — 12/27/2023 @ 7:26 am

    Trump cannot get the impartial jury he’s constitutionally entitled to in the district where his alleged crimes took place.

    The defendant can ask for a venue.

    But courts have rules that in mot cases an impartial jury can be selected (with the big exceptions being where there is a case of extensive pretrial publicity.. THe new venue has to be better than the original)

    The Florida documents case will be tried in the home court of the trial judge, toward central Florida, and not in Miami, but I am not sure what is the reason.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  334. If Trump had not had bone spurs, the Army would have taught him the dangers of operating from inside enemy territory. He would have avoided the New York trials also.

    Trump has said that he wants the Constitution suspended. But then he thinks that Christmas is about him too.

    He got a bigger break than he deserved with the Florida cases and Judge Cannon. The sun cannot shine on the same carpet bag all the time.

    nk (4965e7)

  335. RIP Tom Smothers (86).

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  336. Trump cannot get the impartial jury he’s constitutionally entitled to in the district where his alleged crimes took place.

    lloyd (e8e092) — 12/27/2023 @ 7:26 am

    That has yet to be determined, as questioning potential jurors has has yet to begin. However, apparently the process has started:

    ……….
    The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia has sent prospective jurors a “pre-screening” form asking about their availability to appear in person Feb. 9 to fill out a written questionnaire for use in the jury selection process for a March 4 trial. A resident in Washington, D.C., who received one of the forms in the mail Monday shared an image of it with NBC News.

    Though the form does not name or refer to the defendant directly, the court had earlier set those dates for the questionnaire and the start of Trump’s trial. The form advises potential jurors that their trial “may last approximately three months after jury selection is completed,” which is consistent with estimates of the timetable for Trump’s trial.

    Recipients were also notified that the in-person written questionnaire is different from the online version, which is often the only one used in federal trials.
    ……….

    It is also unlikely that a request to change the venue will succeed.

    ………..
    If Trump files such a motion (prior to jury selection), he will almost certainly lose it—initially, at least……..
    ……….
    If past is prelude, at the close of jury selection Trump will then lose his change of venue motion for a second time, when the judge will conclude that the weeks-long voir dire process—including written juror surveys; individualized questioning of each juror by the judge; juror removals (“strikes”) for cause by the judge upon attorneys’ motions; and a set number of arbitrary (“peremptory”) strikes that the defense lawyers and prosecutors are each accorded—were, in fact, sufficient to ensure a fair trial.
    ………..
    Transfers of venue, as such motions are called, are notoriously difficult to obtain. The Supreme Court has held that they are warranted only in “extraordinary” circumstances. Denials of such motions have been upheld, for instance, in such emotional and pervasively publicized prosecutions as those of the Boston Marathon bomber in Boston, former Enron CEO Jeffrey Skilling in Houston, and World Trade Center bomber Ramzi Yousef in Manhattan.

    So far, the judges of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia have had no trouble batting away motions to transfer venue brought by Jan. 6 defendants. As of last August, at least 11 judges had denied such motions in 15 rulings handed down in 14 criminal cases stemming from the Capitol insurrection.
    ………..
    In every bid to transfer venue that Capitol riot defendants have raised, the key precedent the government has cited in response has been the same: Haldeman v. United States. This is the 1976 en banc ruling of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia upholding the convictions of three top Nixon administration White House officials for obstructing investigations into the 1972 Watergate break-in…….Haldeman is binding on the judges hearing criminal cases stemming from Jan. 6, who all sit on the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.
    ……….
    Perhaps the weightiest issue raised by certain Jan. 6 defendants in their change of venue motions was whether the House select committee’s highly publicized hearings prejudiced their trials, which were going on during or immediately after those hearings. Those hearings are already more than a year behind us, however, so any prejudice from them has likely been abated. ………
    ……….
    The D.C. Circuit suggested (in Haldeman) that transfers of venue would virtually never be required unless voir dire itself—that is, the jury selection process—turned up such a pervasive level of bias in the jury pool that it became obvious that an impartial jury simply could never be winnowed from it.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  337. Fortenberry was convicted of lying in Los Angeles when the lying took place in Lincoln NB and Washington DC. He can be retried in those jurisdictions.

    But, as Donald Trump would assert, jurisdiction matters.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  338. On jurisdictional grounds but not on the merits.

    How often, would you say, do appeals courts overturn a conviction “on the merits”?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  339. The 6th amendment is contradictory. Trump cannot get the impartial jury he’s constitutionally entitled to in the district where his alleged crimes took place.

    Sure he can. It’s just harder. And a notable failure to provide such a jury is grounds for appeal.

    But the idea of the jurisdiction being fixed is to protect the defendant, preventing the prosecution from dragging a case from, say, Florida to, say, DC. In the colonial period, the British would sometimes transport the accused to England for trial rather than try them in a more hospitable colonial court.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  340. The Florida documents case will be tried in the home court of the trial judge, toward central Florida, and not in Miami, but I am not sure what is the reason.

    It’s the same state and district.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  341. @338: Flag on the play. Too many mixed metaphors.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  342. Question: Do jurors in a DC case have to live in the District, or can they be drawn from Virginia and Maryland if they work in the District?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  343. @332

    whembly (5f7596) — 12/27/2023 @ 6:37 am

    Would “shutting the border down” include all cross border trade and travel?

    Rip Murdock (906288) — 12/27/2023 @ 7:04 am

    Probably not, but definitely ought to have increased inspection/surveillance.

    whembly (5f7596)

  344. Question: Do jurors in a DC case have to live in the District, or can they be drawn from Virginia and Maryland if they work in the District?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/27/2023 @ 12:02 pm

    District residents.

    Rip Murdock (906288)

  345. @346:

    Question: Do jurors in a DC case have to live in the District, or can they be drawn from Virginia and Maryland if they work in the District?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/27/2023 @ 12:02 pm

    You must live in DC:
    https://www.dcd.uscourts.gov/sites/dcd/files/jury-FAQ.pdf

    whembly (5f7596)

  346. That’s the way it is everywhere. Voting address or taxpaying address probably

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  347. whembly (5f7596) — 12/27/2023 @ 6:37 am

    Would “shutting the border down” include all cross border trade and travel?

    Rip Murdock (906288) — 12/27/2023 @ 7:04 am

    Probably not, but definitely ought to have increased inspection/surveillance.

    whembly (5f7596) — 12/27/2023 @ 12:09 pm

    Who knows what Donald Trump means by that? Probably nothing specific actually. It just can sound good to some people and he will dare any opponent to disagree with him,

    Now maybe Stephen Miller or Stephen Bannon has explained that.

    The term was used in 2019:

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/01/politics/stephen-miller-trump-shut-down-border/index.html

    02:16
    Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani departs the U.S. District Courthouse after he was ordered to pay $148 million in his defamation case in Washington, U.S., December 15, 2023. REUTERS/Bonnie Cash
    Why ex-Giuliani aide is not surprised he filed for bankruptcy
    04:18
    WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 29: U.S. President Donald Trump walks to Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on September 29, 2020 in Washington, DC. President Trump will square off with Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in tonight’s debate in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
    Detroit News reporter describes phone call of Trump pressuring 2 canvassers not to certify 2020 election
    03:47
    Avlon Honig Trump CO debate split vpx
    Avlon and Honig debate merit of Colorado ruling against Trump
    02:27
    Erin Burnett on EBOF 4/1.
    Burnett: Is closing the border a risk Trump will take?
    01:57
    truth social trump word cloud vpx
    ‘Revenge … dictatorship’: Trump shares paper’s word cloud describing potential second term
    02:28
    FILE – Former President Donald Trump speaks during a commit to caucus rally, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Coralville, Iowa. Trump says he is eager to debate President Joe Biden, even if the debates are sponsored by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates. And he says he is open to debating a single Republican rival if a serious challenger emerges after the New Hampshire primary. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)
    Trump shares Christmas message insulting politicians
    01:56
    Al Gore SOTU 12.24
    Tapper to Gore: What will 2024 look like?
    01:29
    Donald Trump and RIchard Nixon split.
    Why presidential immunity matters to Trump
    02:36
    WASHINGTON, MICHIGAN – APRIL 02: Kristina Karamo, who is running for the Michigan Republican party’s nomination for secretary of state, speaks at a rally hosted by former President Donald Trump on April 02, 2022 near Washington, Michigan. Trump is in Michigan to promote his America First agenda and is expected to voice his support of Karamo and Matthew DePerno, who is running for the Michigan Republican party’s nomination for state attorney general.
    GOP in turmoil inside this key swing state
    05:02
    cohen trump split
    Acosta asks ex-Trump fixer Cohen if legal trouble bothers Trump. Hear his reply
    01:52
    Conway lead vpx
    George Conway makes prediction about election case following Supreme Court’s decision
    03:17
    tuchman trump voters
    Reporter ask Trump supporters to watch video of Trump’s anti-immigrant speech. See how they reacted
    04:00
    SMR Honig 12.23
    Honig: Smith, ‘guided by fear,’ says nothing
    07:46
    Mazi Pilip Marquez pkg vpx
    Why the GOP is backing this former registered-Democrat for George Santos’ seat
    03:41
    Left – Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Hilton Anatole on August 06, 2022 in Dallas, Texas. CPAC began in 1974, and is a conference that brings together and hosts conservative organizations, activists, and world leaders in discussing current events and future political agendas.

    Right – Special counsel Jack Smith speaks about an indictment of former President Donald Trump, Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2023, at a Department of Justice office in Washington.
    Legal expert has theory why Supreme Court rejected Jack Smith’s request
    00:53
    MI canvasser denies trump influence
    Resurfaced 2020 video shows GOP canvasser denying influence of Trump phone call
    02:16
    Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani departs the U.S. District Courthouse after he was ordered to pay $148 million in his defamation case in Washington, U.S., December 15, 2023. REUTERS/Bonnie Cash
    Why ex-Giuliani aide is not surprised he filed for bankruptcy
    04:18
    WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 29: U.S. President Donald Trump walks to Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on September 29, 2020 in Washington, DC. President Trump will square off with Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in tonight’s debate in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
    Detroit News reporter describes phone call of Trump pressuring 2 canvassers not to certify 2020 election
    03:47
    Avlon Honig Trump CO debate split vpx
    Avlon and Honig debate merit of Colorado ruling against Trump
    02:27
    Erin Burnett on EBOF 4/1.
    Burnett: Is closing the border a risk Trump will take?
    01:57
    truth social trump word cloud vpx
    ‘Revenge … dictatorship’: Trump shares paper’s word cloud describing potential second term
    02:28
    FILE – Former President Donald Trump speaks during a commit to caucus rally, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Coralville, Iowa. Trump says he is eager to debate President Joe Biden, even if the debates are sponsored by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates. And he says he is open to debating a single Republican rival if a serious challenger emerges after the New Hampshire primary. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)
    Trump shares Christmas message insulting politicians
    01:56
    Al Gore SOTU 12.24
    Tapper to Gore: What will 2024 look like?
    01:29
    CNN

    White House senior adviser Stephen Miller indicated on Monday that President Donald Trump has not quite made the decision to shut down the border, saying it depends on how the week goes, according to notes from a conference call taken by a listener and obtained by CNN.

    “We will see how much progress we are able to make in the ensuing days, in terms of getting more enforcement with Central and South America, so that we are not getting swamped by meritless asylum claims predominantly from Central America,” Miller told top administration immigration surrogates on a conference call, according to the notes.

    Trump repeated his threat on Friday to close the border between the US and Mexico, and said he would act this week if Mexico didn’t step up.

    “If Mexico doesn’t immediately stop ALL illegal immigration coming into the United States throug (sic) our Southern Border, I will be CLOSING the Border, or large sections of the Border, next week,” he tweeted.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  348. Sorry for overpasting

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  349. Would “shutting the border down” include all cross border trade and travel?

    That’s all it would mean. Shutting down legal crossings and inspection points. People would still be crossing everywhere else along it.

    Trump! His diamonds in platinum are zircons in pot metal.

    nk (11dd8b)

  350. RIP Gaston Glock (94). Inventor of the Glock handgun.

    Rip Murdock (906288)

  351. @347 If shut down. How can cancun ted get to cancun when it gets freezing in texas?

    asset (097af2)

  352. @354 Burning in hell. Hopefully soon joined by wayne lapierre.

    asset (097af2)

  353. @350

    That’s the way it is everywhere. Voting address or taxpaying address probably

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/27/2023 @ 1:14 pm

    The issue is whether or not such area can supply enough jurors who can set aside their partisan belief on such a politically charged court case.

    DC has about 750,000 resident. It’s pretty densely populated in such a tiny area.

    About how much of that count, are able to sit in as a juror?

    That’s not taking account to the fact that DC votes Democrats nearly 95% rate.

    Is there any other court district that is even that comparable? I mean, the state of Washington went to Biden by only 19%… but, in their court district, its hard to argue that one couldn’t get an unbiased juror pool.

    Rational people can point out the obviousness here. But, if you’re dismissing this concern, it only fuels the lack of distrust in these institutions.

    whembly (5f7596)

  354. @355

    @347 If shut down. How can cancun ted get to cancun when it gets freezing in texas?

    asset (097af2) — 12/27/2023 @ 2:25 pm

    The stupid here…

    It burns…

    whembly (5f7596)

  355. asset (097af2) — 12/27/2023 @ 2:28 pm

    I hope not. He developed some great firearms.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  356. Trump demands ‘biased’ Maine secretary of state recuse herself from ruling on ballot eligibility

    Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday urged Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows to recuse herself from deciding his ballot eligibility, calling her a “biased Democrat partisan” and a “Biden supporter who is incapable of making a fair decision.”

    Bellows is expected to weigh in on Trump’s ballot eligibility in Maine under the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause, which could preclude the former president from holding office due to his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

    ………Maine’s unique process allows for the secretary of state to make the call before the courts do.

    Evidently, Trump and his lawyers don’t fancy their odds at a favorable ruling from Bellows. In a four-page letter sent to the Democrat’s office Wednesday, they demanded she recuse herself from making a decision because of old tweets she posted about the Jan. 6 riot.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  357. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/27/2023 @ 4:17 pm

    More:

    In a hearing last week at Maine’s State House in Augusta, Shenna Bellows, the secretary of state, weighed three separate complaints challenging Mr. Trump’s eligibility to appear on the state’s Republican primary ballot. Two are based on the same section of the Constitution that the Colorado Supreme Court cited in its 4-to-3 decision on Tuesday that found Mr. Trump cannot hold office again because his actions leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol amounted to engaging in an insurrection.
    ……….
    After the Colorado ruling, Ms. Bellows, an elected Democrat, invited lawyers on both sides in Maine to file supplemental briefs and said that her decision was likely to come next week.
    ……….
    Under Maine law, registered voters can challenge a candidate’s ballot access by filing a petition with the secretary of state. The state received three such challenges to Mr. Trump’s ballot eligibility: one from a group of former elected officials, and two from individual residents.
    ……….
    (Trump’s attorneys) reiterated, the secretary of state does not have legal standing to exclude Mr. Trump from the Maine ballot.

    “The Constitution reserves exclusively to the Electoral College and Congress the power to determine whether a person may serve as president,” they argued in a closing brief last week. “The challengers effectively ask the secretary to strip those institutions’ power to resolve Section Three issues.”
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  358. (Trump’s attorneys) reiterated, the secretary of state does not have legal standing to exclude Mr. Trump from the Maine ballot.

    There’s nothing in that section of law that disqualifies Trump if he does not meet the eligibility criteria of the federal constitution, or authorizes any challenge on that basis. And Maine cannot adjudicate that anyway. Maine cn authorize its Secretary of State to remove someone from the ballot if, in her opinion, he is disqualified, but it must do so explicitly.

    The 14th amendment does not apply to the election process but only to the assuming of office. The 20th amendment foresees the possibility of a president being elected who does not qualify for the office, And even if Trump were disqualified, the disqualification is not absolute – Congress, by a 2/3 vote of both houses can remove such disability, unlikely as that might be.

    But, anyway, a primary election for president is not an ordinary election – it is merely a service to a political party and a political party is free to award delegates in any way it wants to, regardless of how state law says they are too be apportioned, or to run a caucus itself instead, or in addition, or a so called firehouse primary.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  359. Again, Trump will not be the nominee so a lot of this is moot.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  360. Is the Supreme Court seriously going to disqualify Trump? (Redux)
    ……….
    Now seems to be a good time to revisit my post from the long-ago era of September, in which I pegged the chances of the Supreme Court disqualifying Trump at 10%. In view of this recent development, I’ll up the odds to 20%—still low, but not that low. 13-seed-beats-a-4-seed low. Totally within the realm of possibility.
    ………..
    And while I’m throwing arbitrary probabilities at the wall, here’s my take on the probabilities of how the Supreme Court will dispose of the Colorado case:

    5%: The Court denies certiorari or the case otherwise goes away before the Supreme Court decides it.

    40%: The Court reverses the Colorado Supreme Court, holding that, as a matter of law, Trump isn’t disqualified under Section 3.

    40%: The Court vacates the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision in a manner that leaves the door open to future Section 3 litigation.

    15%: The Court affirms the Supreme Court of Colorado.

    My reasoning follows, as they say.
    ………..
    The conventional wisdom is that the Supreme Court will reverse the Colorado Supreme Court and find that Trump is eligible for the presidency. This wisdom is conventional for three reasons:

    Normative take: It would be insanely anti-democratic—the very peak of judicial activism—to disenfranchise millions of voters who support Trump. The voters, not federal judges, should decide whether Trump’s actions on January 6 are disqualifying.

    Descriptive take: There are six Republican appointees on the Supreme Court, including three Trump appointees, and it is unlikely Republican appointees would disenfranchise Republican voters.

    Lawyerly take: Trump has many legal arguments against disqualification, each of which is independently sufficient for him to prevail. The proponents of disqualification have to win on all of these arguments in order to win the case. Even if Trump’s arguments are individually weak, it will still be hard for the proponents of disqualification to pull a clean sweep.

    These are reasonable points—enough for me to assign a 40% probability that the Supreme Court will reverse the Colorado Supreme Court outright and hold that Trump is eligible for the presidency.

    Why not go higher then? Because the arguments for outright reversal, while high in number, are all quite bad. Trump has some good arguments that Colorado’s procedures were flawed, but his arguments that he is eligible for the presidency as a matter of law are weaker. As to the latter set of issues, the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision is very well done, and it will not be easy to reverse.
    …………
    Here’s how the Colorado Supreme Court resolved the arguments Trump did make, and my take on each holding.

    Section 3 is self-executing (paragraphs 88-107)………
    ……….
    Section 3 is justiciable (paragraphs 112-126)………..
    ……….
    Section 3 applies to future presidents (paragraphs 129-43)……….
    ………..
    Section 3 applies to presidents who previously engaged in insurrection (paragraphs 144-159)……..
    ………..
    January 6 was an “insurrection” (paragraphs 179-89) The Colorado Supreme Court adopts the following legal standard: an insurrection is “a concerted and public use of force or threat of force by a group of people to hinder or prevent the U.S. government from taking the actions necessary to accomplish a peaceful transfer of power in this country.” It then finds that there was substantial evidence in the factual record that the January 3 riot satisfied this standard: (1) the mobsters were armed with makeshift weapons (batons, etc.); (2) the mob was sufficiently coordinated; (3) the mob’s purpose was to prevent the transfer of power.
    …………
    Trump “engaged in” insurrection (paragraphs 190-256)……..
    ……….
    With regard to Trump’s actions on January 6, the (Colorado Supreme Court) says: “Even when the siege on the Capitol was fully underway, he continued to support it by repeatedly demanding that Vice President Pence refuse to perform his constitutional duty and by calling Senators to persuade them to stop the counting of electoral votes. … Moreover, the record amply demonstrates that President Trump fully intended to—and did—aid or further the insurrectionists’ common unlawful purpose of preventing the peaceful transfer of power in this country. He exhorted them to fight to prevent the certification of the 2020 presidential election. He personally took action to try to stop the certification. And for many hours, he and his supporters succeeded in halting that process.”
    …………
    If the Supreme Court reverses the Colorado Supreme Court outright, I predict it will do so on the ground that Trump, no matter how unpleasant his actions, didn’t “engage” in insurrection merely by raging on Twitter and complaining about the election in a speech.
    …………
    One way of acquitting Trump would be to hold that Trump’s acts—his tweets, January 6 speech, and everything else—were just talk. Even if his actions motivated his supporters to storm the Capitol, that doesn’t mean that he engaged in insurrection, or so the argument would go. But that’s a tricky opinion to write:
    …………
    If the Supreme Court cannot find a path to outright reversal, it may consider the more modest step of vacating and remanding in a manner that leaves the door open to future Section 3 litigation. I am assigning a 40% probability to this scenario as well.
    …………
    I’m assigning a 15% probability of affirmance. I realize this seems high under the circumstances.

    But … well … read the Colorado Supreme Court’s opinion. It’s extremely well done.
    ………….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  361. <blockquote>Again, Trump will not be the nominee so a lot of this is moot.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/27/2023 @ 4:59 pm

    An assumption without facts.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  362. Again, Trump will not be the nominee so a lot of this is moot.

    I’ll take that bet.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  363. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/27/2023 @ 4:59 pm

    Show your work.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  364. Republican news: ND rethug state rep. nico rios asked to resign after video of his drunk driving arrest where he tells offcers Do you know who I am. I am an important republican in this republican state! then makes homophobic and racist slurs as he threatens to get them. Speaking of homophobes rethug congresscriter tim walberg praises the murder of homosexuels saying I wish we could kill them too! Reslut bobbert is switching districts in co. say the people in my district are tired of my behavior.

    asset (4037a9)

  365. @363 I will take you up on that bet and I hope you win and I lose the bet.

    asset (4037a9)

  366. asset seems to be drifting into happyfeet territory, trying to get a rise.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  367. Anecdotally this tracks with me…
    https://www.npr.org/2023/12/27/1217878506/gen-x-conservative-disapprove-biden

    “Gen X is the most Republican of the generations,” said Jean Twenge, a psychology professor at San Diego State University and author of the book Generations, which examines what drives generational differences.

    NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist polling underscores that point: By generation, Biden has the highest disapproval rating from Generation X (62%), compared with the Silent/Greatest Generation (48%), baby boomers (48%) and Generation Z/millennials (50%). Biden also has the highest “strongly disapprove” rating from Gen X (52%), compared with the Silent/Greatest Generation (41%), boomers (39%) and Gen Z/millennials (35%).

    Twenge says that political leanings of generations can be influenced by the popularity of the president when that generation is in adolescence or young adulthood. For Gen X, that is largely defined by an unpopular Carter and a popular Republican president, Ronald Reagan.

    Even for Gen Xers who say they generally approve of Biden, they share a nostalgia for the politics of their youth.

    “Ronald Reagan made me feel good about being a U.S. citizen, being American,” said Ken Piccolo, 56, a substitute teacher from San Jose, California.

    “He made you feel like it was worthwhile and we’re a good country and we’re doing some good stuff, because just the way he interacted with the state, the world, the country — he just made you feel good about being American.”

    But Piccolo’s support for Biden is a tenuous one. He feels good about where the economy is going, but he’s still concerned about Biden’s age. So if there’s a younger — and viable — Democrat, he says he might switch his vote. But as of now, he says his Biden vote is driven by a disgust at the influence that former President Donald Trump has had over the Republican Party. “I don’t hate the Republican Party. I hate the MAGA wing of it,” he said, “These people are lunatics.”

    whembly (5f7596)

  368. Huh?

    Nikki Haley was confronted on Wednesday by a voter in New Hampshire who called her out for not mentioning slavery in her response to his question about the cause of the Civil War.
    ……………
    “I mean, I think the cause of the Civil War was basically how government was going to run. The freedoms and what people could and couldn’t do,” Haley said in a visit to Berlin — the first of five events in the Granite State as she attempts to close the gap with Republican front-runner Donald Trump ahead of next month’s primary.
    …………
    “I think it always comes down to the role of government and what the rights of the people are,” Haley added. “I will always stand by the fact that I think government was intended to secure the rights and freedoms of the people. It was never meant to be all things to all people,” she added.

    The voter criticized her for not mentioning slavery in her answer. “In the year 2023, it’s astonishing to me that you answer that question without mentioning the word slavery,” the voter said.

    “What do you want me to say about slavery?” Haley asked.

    “You answered my question,” he responded.
    ………….
    (The voter) said a video of Haley being asked “essentially” the same question when she was running for governor of South Carolina had prompted him to ask it again now that she’s running for president.

    “The answer that she gave was very similar to the answer that she gave tonight,” he said, adding “I was just curious if she would answer it any different.”
    ………….

    Really? As a candidate for governor she endorsed the Confederate flag and defended secession when it was politically convenient for her campaign. Then again, at least she has been consistent on her belief about why the Civil War was fought. It’s one thing she hasn’t changed her position on.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  369. Video of Haley’s response to the Civil War question.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  370. Of course, Haley is now conceding that slavery was somehow involved in the Civil War. As I’ve said in the past, whenever a politician has to “clarify” or “apologize if anyone was offended”, you can be sure that their original comments revealed their true beliefs.

    Whether the questioner was a “Democrat plant” or not, she still needs to explain why slavery as a cause of the Civil War wasn’t the first thing that popped into her head.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  371. Dang, dang, dang! Nikki, you just lost all of Biden’s base.

    nk (8f9963)

  372. Anyway, as the Supreme Court ruled in Obergefell v. Hodges, the Civil War was fought so that Harriet Beecher Stowe could marry Harriet Tubman. Slavery, shmavery!

    !

    nk (8f9963)

  373. she still needs to explain why slavery as a cause of the Civil War wasn’t the first thing that popped into her head.

    Easy. She is not a 20-year old undergrad at an American college.

    nk (8f9963)

  374. @377

    she still needs to explain why slavery as a cause of the Civil War wasn’t the first thing that popped into her head.

    Easy. She is not a 20-year old undergrad at an American college.

    nk (8f9963) — 12/28/2023 @ 7:41 am

    This:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/nikki-haleys-sin-isnt-racism/

    But what insults about it is that — lost in rote accusations of “racism blah blah GOP base blah blah” — we will avoid discussion of Nikki Haley’s real sin: holding her voters either in such contempt, or fear, that she can’t confidently state a simple truth. The real gaffe Haley committed on Wednesday was that, when she froze up under an unpredicted question and defaulted to her factory settings in answering, those answers demonstrated such contempt for the intelligence of her voters. We can be told the Civil War was about slavery, Nikki — we’re all adults here. Few politicians look good when caught nakedly pandering in public, but Nikki Haley wears the look witheringly poorly — it knocks out one of the key underlying struts currently upholding her fragile public brand. That’s why this little gaffe, however minor, memorably reveals something about Haley; we rarely get such accidental insight into how little politicians think of their own voters.

    The Civil War wasn’t fought solely for the south to maintain slavery, but it was a huge part of a very complicated conflict.

    There is a debate, not a good one imo, but a debate that if slavery didn’t exist and everything else stayed the same, there wouldn’t be a CW.

    What history does say though, that at the time, the south lost a lot of influence in the federal government to the north and the question over slavery was one of the major pretext for this conflict.

    Nikki’s gaffe here is going to hurt…and would be a major attack in the general.

    If a politician wanted more nuance, one could say the CW was started primarily over slavery and the right of the states to secede.

    whembly (5f7596)

  375. The Civil War was fought because the industrial North needed a secure breadbasket to feed its factory workers. Control of agriculture.

    The same thing in the Dred Scott decision scared the pants off both the Northern industrialists and the abolitionists. Its application to the territories. But for entirely different reasons.

    The abolitionists because slavery made their hearts bleed. The industrialists because slavery would be the litmus test whereby expanding America would align with the industrial North or the agricultural South.

    nk (8f9963)

  376. The main grievance of South Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and Virginia is how the federal government (and the northern states) treated slaves and slavery, at least according to their Declaration of Causes of Seceding States. They were pretty upfront about it.

    As I pointed out, Haley’s response reflected her long held position. It wasn’t a gaffe.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  377. she still needs to explain why slavery as a cause of the Civil War wasn’t the first thing that popped into her head.

    She is not a 20-year old undergrad at an American college.

    nk (8f9963) — 12/28/2023 @ 7:41 am

    Which is why she should have know better. A 20-year old undergrad would be too busy looking it up on their phone.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  378. Given her history discussing the Civil War, the question should have been predictable.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  379. Dang, dang, dang! Nikki, you just lost all of Biden’s base.

    nk (8f9963) — 12/28/2023 @ 7:33 am

    We’ll see if she loses some NH independents to Christie, who presumably knows that slavery was one of the causes of the Civil War.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  380. Nikki gaffing is like airplanes crashing. It’s news because it’s so unusual. You try 24/7 campaigning and see how YOU do.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  381. “Gen X is the most Republican of the generations,”

    People in their prime working years generally don’t favor the taxers and regulators. With the Boomers, it was Reagan who made that connection, although Nixon had tempered that some (being a taxer and regulator par excellence, and a crook).

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  382. Nikki gaffing is like airplanes crashing. It’s news because it’s so unusual. You try 24/7 campaigning and see how YOU do.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 9:07 am

    It’s not a gaffe, it’s the same answer she gave 13 years ago when running for governor. It’s her stated position.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  383. “Slavery” was not the cause of succession. There was no way that the federal government could have ended it any time soon. What WAS the cause was the effort to limit the spread of slavery, in particular keeping it out of most of the Mexican Cession. See the Wilmot Proviso for where the wheels came off.

    The secession very nearly happened circa 1850, but (Whig) Millard Fillmore’s yeoman support for the Compromise of 1850 put that off for a decade. Sadly, the next two Democrat presidents favored slavery and Dredd Scott put an end to compromise.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  384. It’s her stated position.

    MY stated position is that slavery (itself) did not lead to secession, and it is secession that caused the Civil War. President Buchanan’s inaction and acquiescence led the South to think they might get away with it.

    There was no chance that Abraham Lincoln could have done squat about slavery in those states where it existed. That wasn’t the reason.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  385. “Slavery” was not the cause of succession…..

    Despite what South Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and Virginia said in their declarations justifying their secession?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  386. MY stated position is that slavery (itself) did not lead to secession……

    That’s fine, but you’re not running for President; Haley is, and her answer in NH repeated what she said when running for governor. It’s in her blood.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  387. The main grievance of South Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and Virginia is how the federal government (and the northern states) treated slaves and slavery

    It was A grievance, but it was not the main one. The federal government had great power over the vast new territories of the West and Southwest, and it was clear that slavery was going to be isolated as much as possible to those states where it already existed.

    This would have harmed the Southern economy, which was inseparable from slavery (and tariffs didn’t help), but it eventually would have eliminated the Slave Power veto in the Senate as new free states were admitted.

    The split happened long before Lincoln’s election. The Democrats split, north and south, and the Whigs were utterly destroyed by their own split, with most of the northern Whigs becoming “Republicans.”

    You could say that it was “about slavery” but it was really about the South losing power.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  388. Despite what South Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and Virginia said in their declarations justifying their secession?

    Yes. Sometimes politicians lie to justify themselves. Read a book.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  389. Gen X is the one paying for everything at this point and knowing they’ll be shafted the most by this racist government and those demanding their freebies.

    It’s only logical they’d be the most conservative. They’re the first generation that was treated to the modern leftist racism, they are paying for social security and Medicare and they are being told they don’t matter and need to be replaced by illegal aliens.

    NJRob (7414f7)

  390. And they weren’t completely indoctrinated in school even though those pressures heavily existed at the time.

    NJRob (7414f7)

  391. Try David M. Potter’s The Impending Crisis, 1848-1861. It won the Pulitzer.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  392. It’s only logical they’d be the most conservative. They’re the first generation that was treated to the modern leftist racism, they are paying for social security and Medicare and they are being told they don’t matter and need to be replaced by illegal aliens.

    Odd thing about Gen X, formerly called the “Baby Bust” generation. At one point it was about half the size of the Boomer cohort, but immigration 1980-2000 swelled their numbers markedly, incidentally helping Social Security out of a hole.

    The funny thing about immigrants is that they ALL work and work hard. Not natural adherents to socialism. This is why the Democrats are so dead set on racist division — and why Donald Trump is the Democrats’ best friend.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  393. Easy. She is not a 20-year old undergrad at an American college.

    That person would have said “white Supremacy” or maybe “Enslavers” but would not have said “Slavery” as that might suggest it was the slaves’ fault.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  394. Kevin,

    I feel you would not be as conciliatory and forgiving if DeSantis or Trump make the same gaffe.

    NJRob (7414f7)

  395. Digging deeper:

    ………..
    When asked by an audience member what the cause of the war was, Haley responded it “was basically how government was going to run, the freedoms and what people could and couldn’t do,” according to several videos of the exchange. After blowback across social media for failing to mention slavery in her answer, Haley clarified during an appearance on New Hampshire radio that she was talking about what the war “means to us today.”

    “………What I was saying was what does it mean to us today? What it means to us today is about freedom. That’s what that was all about. It was about individual freedom, it was about economic freedom, it was about individual rights,” said Haley. “Our goal is to make sure, no, we never go back to the stain of slavery, but what’s the lesson in all of that?”
    ………

    Ouch!:

    When the questioner said it was “astonishing” to hear her respond “without mentioning the word slavery,” Haley replied: “What do you want me to say about slavery?” She then asked for the next question.

    Ahem. How about “Slavery was bad,” at least? Or admitting that it was the cause of the Civil War? One does not have to go far to find this out, especially in South Carolina, the state that seceded first and triggered the war. When the state attempted to secede, it published its “Declaration of the Immediate Causes” to justify the act. And guess what makes it into the very first paragraph as an “immediate cause”? (Emphasis in original):

    The people of the State of South Carolina, in Convention assembled, on the 26th day of April, A.D., 1852, declared that the frequent violations of the Constitution of the United States, by the Federal Government, and its encroachments upon the reserved rights of the States, fully justified this State in then withdrawing from the Federal Union; but in deference to the opinions and wishes of the other slaveholding States, she forbore at that time to exercise this right. Since that time, these encroachments have continued to increase, and further forbearance ceases to be a virtue.

    The term “slave” is mentioned in one form or another eighteen times in the document. The specific complaints come in a single paragraph, all of which have to do with slavery and the non-cooperation of northern states in enforcing it on behalf of the southern states:
    ………..
    South Carolina made very clear why it wanted to leave the Union: to continue slavery on its own terms. That was the reason the other southern states joined the Confederacy as well. This didn’t happen in a vacuum either, but immediately after a bloody conflict in Kansas over the expansion of slavery and the refusal of northern states to allow it. In fact, the Kansas war ended in 1859 — the year before South Carolina seceded — with an anti-slavery territorial government, and the southern states blocked Kansas’ entry into the Union until they seceded after the election of abolition-minded Abraham Lincoln the next year. That is why the nation fell into a Civil War, not the secondary or tertiary issues Haley trots out in this answer.

    So yes, one question settled in the Civil War was “how the government was going to run” … in regard to slavery.

    It was also about “the role of the government and what the rights of the people are” … in regard to slavery.

    It’s also true that “government was intended to secure the rights and freedoms of the people” … but “people” had to be defined in regard to slavery.

    Most conservatives would agree that “government doesn’t need to tell you how to live your life,” and it largely didn’t at that time — except where state governments kept people in slavery. (Italics in original.)

    ………..(C)onservatives have been pandering to the Lost Cause fantasy of the Confederacy for far too long, hoping to avoid alienating its adherents. Haley may be worried that South Carolina primary voters don’t want to hear a straightforward and honest answer, or perhaps more simply, that she doesn’t want to give those voters an excuse to flip back to Trump on this pretext. Not exactly a “Profiles in Courage” moment for Haley, or even a “Profiles in Reality” moment.
    ……….
    ……….(The South Carolina Declaration) argues against states’ rights in the North by demanding that they abide by slavery laws in the South, and South Carolina argued that the federal government should force them to do so. The South also refused to admit Kansas after it rejected slavery, which is the exact opposite of “state’s rights.” The war was entirely about slavery.
    ###########

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  396. Try David M. Potter’s The Impending Crisis, 1848-1861. It won the Pulitzer.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 9:34 am

    I have, and it doesn’t change the fact that the immediate causes were the northern states (and federal government) refusals to acquiesce to the southern states demands to accept and enforce their slave laws. Sometimes politicians do state what they believe in, both historically (the Declarations) and today (Haley’s long held views on the Civil War).

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  397. Absent slavery, there would have been no Civil War.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  398. More on Haley’s Civil War pandering:

    ………..
    ……..(T)he questioner probably was a plant. It could have come from the Democrats. It could have come from one of her Republican opponents. The rub is how easy it would be to trip her up. Nikki Haley had the confederate flag removed from the South Carolina statehouse in 2015. There is a portion of the GOP base who is angry at her for doing so. Whoever “planted” the question knew she would need to answer the question in a way that panders to everyone.

    Instead of just saying SLAVERY like they taught us on The Simpsons.

    Interviewer: “What was the cause of the Civil War?”

    Apu: “Actually, there were numerous causes. Aside from the obvious schism between the abolitionists and the anti-abolitionists, there were…”

    Interviewer: “Wait, wait. Slavery. Just say slavery.”

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  399. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 9:22 am

    There was no chance that Abraham Lincoln could have done squat about slavery in those states where it existed. That wasn’t the reason.

    But Abraham Lincoln wasn’t going to appoint any southgerner to national office, so long as a southerner supported slavery, and it was impossible, after about 1835 or 1840, for any southern politician not to support slavery.

    And the shunning of southern politicians would continue indefinitely, and would be reinforced by the admission of more free states. Worse, the South was demanding that slavery be endorsed by others.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  400. https://www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/speeches/gettysburg.htm

    our score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

    Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure….

    Or would the losers in an election, or those who came from a place where any candidate for the top office would be doomed to lose all foreseeable elections, and not even be able to hope for a high ranking lower office, attempt to split up that nation and carve out a new nation where they could hold all the high offices.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  401. https://www.facinghistory.org/resource-library/speech-president-lincoln-second-inaugural-address-0

    One-eighth of the whole population were colored slaves, not distributed generally over the Union, but localized in the southern part of it. These slaves constituted a peculiar and powerful interest. All knew that this interest was somehow the cause of the war….

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  402. I feel you would not be as conciliatory and forgiving if DeSantis or Trump make the same gaffe.

    Not Trump, certainly, but in his case it would just be more ignorance in a long train of ignorant statements. DeSantis? I’m not hostile to him, but think that his turn towards anti-Wokism was a mistake and lost his message in trivialities (“Never argue with idiots”).

    I’d still vote for him over Biden.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  403. And the shunning of southern politicians would continue indefinitely, and would be reinforced by the admission of more free states. Worse, the South was demanding that slavery be endorsed by others.

    The Democrat Party would win some elections and Lincoln being unable to alter the reality of slavery would have eventually tired people of listening to the abolitionists.

    Sure, as the Southern economy moved away from agriculture and slavery, as it would have had to, and as new free states came it, slavery was eventually doomed, even within southern states.

    But no one starts a civil war because they won’t get appointed to a sinecure.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  404. Absent slavery, there would have been no Civil War.

    I could as easily say “without cotton there would have been no Civil War” or “without high tariffs there would have been no Civil War” or “without the Mexican Cession there would ave been no Civil War” even “had the Democrat Party not split, there would have been no Civil War.”

    All of those contributed, none were “the cause.”

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  405. But no one starts a civil war because they won’t get appointed to a sinecure.
    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 11:13 am

    Let me answer your hyperbole with “my own.”

    Wasn’t Jan6th about 1 person doing just that, for that same reason? Isn’t that part, implicitly or otherwise, the “message” on all the news channels, and what exactly are the courts doing – since they do not operate in a vacuum?

    felipe (546e7a)

  406. Wasn’t Jan6th about 1 person doing just that

    OK, No sane person starts a civil war because they won’t get appointed to a sinecure.

    Also, the Presidency is not a sinecure.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  407. The cause of the great War of the Rebellion against the United Status will have to be attributed to slavery. For some years before the war began it was a trite saying among some politicians that “A state half slave and half free cannot exist.” All must become slave or all free, or the state will go down. I took no part myself in any such view of the case at the time, but since the war is over, reviewing the whole question, I have come to the conclusion that the saying is quite true.

    Slavery was an institution that required unusual guarantees for its security wherever it existed; and in a country like ours where the larger portion of it was free territory inhabited by an intelligent and well-to-do population, the people would naturally have but little sympathy with demands upon them for its protection. Hence the people of the South were dependent upon keeping control of the general government to secure the perpetuation of their favorite institution. They were enabled to maintain this control long after the States where slavery existed had ceased to have the controlling power, through the assistance they received from odd men here and there throughout the Northern States. They saw their power waning, and this led them to encroach upon the prerogatives and independence of the Northern States by enacting such laws as the Fugitive Slave Law. By this law every Northern man was obliged, when properly summoned, to turn out and help apprehend the runaway slave of a Southern man. Northern marshals became slave-catchers, and Northern courts had to contribute to the support and protection of the institution.

    This was a degradation which the North would not permit any longer than until they could get the power to expunge such laws from the statute books. Prior to the time of these encroachments the great majority of the people of the North had no particular quarrel with slavery, so long as they were not forced to have it themselves. But they were not willing to play the role of police for the South in the protection of this particular institution.

    Personal Memoirs of U.S. Grant

    Davethulhu (0f7efc)

  408. Now, I absolutely agree with Kevin, because I take as his meaning, that it takes more than one to accomplish civil war. Such as a multitude of selfish actors who feel threatened by the possible loss of their sinecures of something changed.

    That multitude, by necessity, must exist on opposing sides for a civil war to come to fruition. A necessity satisfied in the past and, possibly, today. Maybe all that is lacking, is a “Dredd Scott decision” of our own.

    felipe (546e7a)

  409. Also, the Presidency is not a sinecure.
    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 11:32 am

    Heh! Not to the likes of us…

    felipe (546e7a)

  410. Speaking of sinecures, Lauren von Silicone really is looking to poach a safe()r district instead of running for reelection in hers.

    nk (8f9963)

  411. I saw that nk. Her problem though is that the same primary challenges she had in the 3rd district will still be there in CO-4 (which had been electing the Reagan-RINO Ken Buck, who retired).

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  412. They saw their power waning, and this led them to encroach upon the prerogatives and independence of the Northern States by enacting such laws as the Fugitive Slave Law. By this law every Northern man was obliged, when properly summoned, to turn out and help apprehend the runaway slave of a Southern man. Northern marshals became slave-catchers, and Northern courts had to contribute to the support and protection of the institution.

    This was a degradation which the North would not permit any longer than until they could get the power to expunge such laws from the statute books.

    This is particularly insightful. In order to get past the secession crisis of 1850, Congress passed the Fugitive Slave Law (part of the Compromise). And in doing so, extended the Institution to the North. In Dredd Scott, the SC went further and said that Slavery itself was legal everywhere, due to property rights. These incursions into the lives of free men were unacceptable and hastened the day when Slavery would end.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  413. If you think that people today are upset about having to compete for work with illegal aliens, imagine the prospects for northern factory workers who faced having to compete for wages with slaves. Not that they were paid a lot as it was.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  414. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 12:14 pm

    In Dredd Scott, the SC went further and said that Slavery itself was legal everywhere, due to property rights.

    No it didn’t. That was what Abraham Lincoln and others said would be the next Dred Scott decision.

    The trap that the abolitionists had set for slavery supporters in the Dred Scott case was that either the court would declare that Dred Scott did nit become free when he was taken into Wisconsin, or he did become free and then if he became a slave again when taken into a slave state that could only be because a state legislature could declare anyone a slave – and if it could, it could also make white people into slaves!

    The Supreme Court got around that by saying that Dred Scott could not sue because he was not a citizen because people of African origins were not citizens..

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  415. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 12:06 pm

    Her problem though is that the same primary challenges she had in the 3rd district will still be there in CO-4 (which had been electing the Reagan-RINO Ken Buck, who retired).

    What Lauren Boebert nearly lost in 2022 was the general election.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  416. Haley has a long, long history on being wishy-washy on the Civil War. This is from back in 2010:

    In her interview, Haley also described the Civil War in terms sympathetic to the southern cause and did not mention slavery.

    “I mean, again, I think that as we look in government, as we watch government, you have different sides, and I think that you see passions on different sides, and I don’t think anyone does anything out of hate,” Haley said. “I think what they do is, they do things out of tradition and out of beliefs of what they believe is right.”

    “I think you have one side of the Civil War that was fighting for tradition, and I think you have another side of the Civil War that was fighting for change,” she added. “You know, at the end of the day, what I think we need to remember is that you know, everyone is supposed to have their rights, everyone is supposed to be free, everyone is supposed to have the same freedoms as anyone else. So, you know I think it was tradition versus change is the way I see it.

    “Tradition versus change on what,” asked the interviewer.

    “On individual rights and liberty of people,” she responded.

    Haley later added she believed everyone was endowed with rights from “our creator” to “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”

    “Well, I think that for me, you know what I continue to remember is that you know we also know that our creator endowed the rights of everyone having you know, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness,” she said. ‘And so, when I look at it that way, I look at that’s still what needs to be what guides everybody, so that we make sure that we keep those three things in check.”

    Source is a CNN article from February:

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/21/politics/nikki-haley-secession-confederate-history-month-flag-kfile/index.html

    Haley may have been “set up”, but somebody knew to set her up. Bad gaffe? I don’t know. My guess is that Haley made the mistake of saying what she believes about the Civil War, which might be the result of bad education in her hometown of Bamberg SC. I doubt the explanations (she’s scared of MAGA) actually apply here.

    Appalled (03f53c)

  417. Hence the people of the South were dependent upon keeping control of the general government to secure the perpetuation of their favorite institution… They saw their power waning, and this led them to encroach upon the prerogatives and independence of the Northern States by enacting such laws as the Fugitive Slave Law.

    The problem with that theory, as Abraham Lincoln said, was:

    https://avalon.law.yale.edu/19th_century/lincoln1.asp

    One section of our country believes slavery is right and ought to be extended, while the other believes it is wrong and ought not to be extended. This is the only substantial dispute. The fugitive- slave clause of the Constitution and the law for the suppression of the foreign slave trade are each as well enforced, perhaps, as any law can ever be in a community where the moral sense of the people imperfectly supports the law itself. The great body of the people abide by the dry legal obligation in both cases, and a few break over in each. This, I think, can not be perfectly cured, and it would be worse in both cases after the separation of the sections than before. The foreign slave trade, now imperfectly suppressed, would be ultimately revived without restriction in one section, while fugitive slaves, now only partially surrendered, would not be surrendered at all by the other.

    Physically speaking, we can not separate. We can not remove our respective sections from each other nor build an impassable wall between them. A husband and wife may be divorced and go out of the presence and beyond the reach of each other, but the different parts of our country can not do this. They can not but remain face to face, and intercourse, either amicable or hostile, must continue between them. Is it possible, then, to make that intercourse more advantageous or more satisfactory after separation than before? Can aliens make treaties easier than friends can make laws? Can treaties be more faithfully enforced between aliens than laws can among friends? Suppose you go to war, you can not fight always; and when, after much loss on both sides and no gain on either, you cease fighting, the identical old questions, as to terms of intercourse, are again upon you.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  418. The Civil War, after o more than two years, became a fight over slavery.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  419. I saw that nk. (Boebert’s) problem though is that the same primary challenges she had in the 3rd district will still be there in CO-4 (which had been electing the Reagan-RINO Ken Buck, who retired).

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 12:06 pm

    CD-4 is a friendlier district; fewer Democrats, more Republicans. The gap between registered Democrats and Republicans in CD-3 is about 34,700; in CD-4 it’s 90,400.

    CD-3 Party Registration, 12/1/23

    Dem 23%
    Rep 30
    Unaffiliated 46
    Other 2

    CD-4 Party Registration, 12/1/23

    Dem 17%
    Rep 35
    Unaffiliated 46
    Other 2

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  420. 407 Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 11:13 am

    / The Democrat Party would win some elections and Lincoln being unable to alter the reality of slavery would have eventually tired people of listening to the abolitionists.

    But no one who supported slavery would hold any national position.

    But no one starts a civil war because they won’t get appointed to a sinecure.

    If that’s what they’ve set their sights on, why not?

    They didn’t expect a war or hoped it would not last long..

    https://www.facinghistory.org/resource-library/speech-president-lincoln-second-inaugural-address-0

    On the occasion corresponding to this four years ago all thoughts were anxiously directed to an impending civil war. All dreaded it, all sought to avert it. While the inaugural address was being delivered from this place, devoted altogether to saving the Union without war, insurgent agents were in the city seeking to destroy it without war—seeking to dissolve the Union and divide effects by negotiation. Both parties deprecated war, but one of them would make war rather than let the nation survive, and the other would accept war rather than let it perish, and the war came.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  421. Haley was being nice, and also thinking about why the soldiers fought,

    The important things about Haley is what she is nt, and where she fits on the political spectrum.

    No Labels has more chances, and they should have different candidates for president in red states and in blue states, with a resulting competition to see who comes in third in Electoral votes, and therefore maybe president, and one candidate for vice president: Probably Lisa Murkowski. The Republican Senate will select her over Kamala Harris, even if the House is deadlocked..

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  422. 400. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/28/2023 @ 10:17 am

    the immediate causes were the northern states (and federal government) refusals to acquiesce to the southern states demands to accept and enforce their slave laws.

    Secession would get Northern sattes to return runaway slaves??

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  423. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 9:28 am

    You could say that it was “about slavery” but it was really about the South losing power.

    And that was caused by attitudes about slavery.

    It meant there were no exceptions and no coalitions possible.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  424. Borbert will be the big fish in the CD-4 primary; much better known than any of the other candidates, one of whom has called for treason indictments against the Colorado Supreme Court judges who ruled for Trump’s disqualification.

    “Since four of the all-Democrat-appointed Supreme Court justices have decided to betray our constitution, attempt to take our rights away, and stop us from voting for Rightful President Trump even if we write-in his name, they should definitely be tried for treason,” (said Trent Leisy, a U.S. Navy veteran and business owner). “And for their sake, I hope it’s not an all-Republican-appointed court that oversee their cases.”
    ……….
    In one Facebook post, he asked why Congress, the “judicial system” and the Department of Justice “ignored the stolen 2020 election.”

    “Because it would’ve exposed them of TREASON, as well!” he said.
    ………
    “I want to clarify one thing: Rightful President Trump has my full endorsement,” Leisy said in a statement accompanying the protest’s press release. “President Trump is and has always been the clear leader of the Republican Party.
    ………
    Leisy has also said that if elected, he would introduce legislation allowing for an American president to serve three terms, citing Trump’s 2020 loss due to “a fraudulent election.”
    ………
    He also said: “I want to send the major media to the gallows, radical leftists to the gallows, traitors to our nation to the gallows.”
    #########

    Compared to him Boebert almost sounds sane. I said, almost.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  425. Secession would get Northern sattes to return runaway slaves??

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/28/2023 @ 1:26 pm

    The secessionist compliant was that the northern states weren’t returning their runaway slaves.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  426. No it didn’t. That was what Abraham Lincoln and others said would be the next Dred Scott decision.

    The decision said that

    1) Dred Scott had no standing.
    2) Dred Scott did not become free by entering a free state.
    3) The Compromise of 1820, where it outlawed slavery in some states, was unconstitutional.

    That second point meant that slaves could be imported into free states and would remain slaves IN that “free” state. The third point meant that any state could become a slave state.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  427. The Civil War, after no more than two years, became a fight over slavery.

    No, it did not. What happened was that Lincoln used slavery for several purposes:

    1) The Emancipation Proclamation made it impossible for England, which has already outlawed slavery, to intervene on the side of the Confenderacy (which they wanted to do to divide their breakaway colonies)

    2) The Emancipation Proclamation was a direct attack on the economy of the Confederacy, with the hope that it would create slave uprising behind the lines. It also allowed Union occupation troops to free, and then utilize blacks in the war effort.

    3) It added a purpose to the War, but it was ALWAYS about the Union. Even slave-holding border states favored keeping the Union. Four slave states never seceded, not counting West Virginia.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  428. CD-4 is a friendlier district; fewer Democrats, more Republicans.

    Friendlier to the Republican candidate. But not necessarily to Boebert in the primary. Ken Buck despised Boebert and MAGA.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  429. No Labels has more chances

    If Trump is the candidate, and No Labels does not want to help Trump, they will run someone mildly right-of-center. They will not run Manchin. It’s conceivable they could run Haley — not all that likely, but more likely than she’d be Trump’s VP.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  430. Whites were taught in the south that the civil war was about northern aggression and states rights and don’t you dare ask the right to do what. The south had legal segregation up until the mid 1960’s

    asset (1a2419)

  431. and don’t you dare ask the right to do what.

    A question you never ask about abortion.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  432. The south had legal segregation up until the mid 1960’s

    But not between 1866 and some time in the 1880s. Jim Crow was slow to build as the southern politicians had to tread carefully for a while. The post-Reconstruction Supreme Court helped.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  433. OK lets get the history right. The south was winning with the dread scott decision and the election of douglas over lincoln. The president was pro slavery and so was supreme court. Southern filibuster dominated the senate. Look what happened to charles sumner. There was no need for secession and south was not planning one. So Capt. John Brown who was busy with his work in kansas took time off to kick fred douglass and the other wimp abolitionists in the rear end and said time to end slavery! I am going to the armory at harpers ferry and pass out guns to the slaves and that will end slavery! You coming fred? Harriet tubman is coming. No she isn’t we wimp abolitionists are going to lock her in a closet and stand guard so she doesn’t go with you. The south thought everyone in the north was part of John Brown’s conspiracy including Lincoln who was horrified like the other wimp republicans. That is why when lincoln was elected thanks to John Brown splitting the democrat party into three candidates the south secceeded

    asset (1a2419)

  434. Friendlier to the Republican candidate. But not necessarily to Boebert in the primary. Ken Buck despised Boebert and MAGA.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 2:02 pm

    Ken Buck probably quit because he knew he couldn’t win reelection.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  435. That may be, but why would you trade down?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  436. OK lets get the history right.

    And to think you follow that with nonsense.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  437. I see that the reliably leftist media is making a lot out of Haley’s comments. It’s a “You people” moment for them. They desperately need Trump running so that Newsom has it greased.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  438. So, Maine kicks Trump off the ballot. I think they’re wrong. I also think that if anyone deserves this, it is Donald Trump.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  439. The Convention will not seat delegates selected in a primary where a leading candidate is disqualified for non-procedural reasons.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  440. Brokered convention.
    DeSantis and Haley give their delegates to Trump.
    DeSantis is nominated for VP.
    Haley is promised Secretary of State.
    Fast forward six months. Biden is too debilitated to take the oath of office. Kamala is sworn in as President on January 20, 2025.

    nk (8f9963)

  441. I stopped making predictions after Trump was nominated in 2016.
    It doesn’t seem to matter how many indictments or how many whiny crazybus social media posts, Trump is only getting more GOP support in the polls.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  442. The Convention will not seat delegates selected in a primary where a leading candidate is disqualified for non-procedural reasons.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 4:41 pm

    Since the Trump campaign will be controlling the convention through its Rules Committee (and the fact it will probably have a majority of delegates), it will be in a position to overturn any attempt to do so. Nominating a convicted felon will be the ultimate “owning of the libs.”

    It will make for great television. Comedy gold!

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  443. That may be, but why would you trade down?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 4:16 pm

    For we all know, Boebert could be a trade up.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  444. It’s conceivable (No Labels) could run Haley — not all that likely, but more likely than she’d be Trump’s VP.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 2:05 pm

    Only if she doesn’t want a future in the Republican Party.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  445. Trump will be on the Colorado primary ballot:

    ……….
    Following the appeal (by the Colorado Republican Party to the US Supreme Court), Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold announced that she will include Trump on the primary ballot on the Jan. 5 certification deadline, unless the U.S. Supreme Court affirms the lower court’s ruling or declines to take up the case.
    …………..
    According to Griswold’s press release, the deadline for 2024 primary ballots to be sent out to military voters is Jan. 20.

    Additionally, Feb. 12 is the first day that ballots will be mailed out to voters, and at the end of the month, on Feb. 26, the first day of primary voting takes place.
    …………

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  446. @435 I am telling you what they say as they only want states rights to do evil like slavery and banning abortion. These states rights racists don’t want black people to vote and allow their citizens to vote on abortion. Only vote for them in their gerrymandered districts.

    asset (02167c)

  447. Actually Haley is pulling a hillary and crying that she should have mentioned slavery. Even I am feeling sorry for her! All publicity is good publicity and unlike clinton she is not hated. This will actually help her with ignorant southern white trash racists and most everybody else will be like me and fill sorry for her. We all forgive you haley!

    asset (02167c)

  448. @440 I see you can’t point out any nonsense because its all true.

    asset (02167c)

  449. @444:

    I’m sure there is worse available.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  450. Nominating a convicted felon will be the ultimate “owning of the libs.”

    They could nominate Putin instead. They’ve already shown they don’t care about eligibility.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  451. Only if she doesn’t want a future in the Republican Party.

    TR would have been the nominee in 1920 had he not died in 1919.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  452. I am telling you what they say as they only want states rights to do evil like slavery and banning abortion.

    Last I looked Republicans ended slavery over the actual insurrection of the Democrats.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  453. @456 around 1964 they changed sides. Strom thurmond became a rethugliKKKan and by 1980 the klan joined the republican party in a deal with the devil as trump is rosemary’s baby.

    asset (02167c)

  454. @457

    @456 around 1964 they changed sides. Strom thurmond became a rethugliKKKan and by 1980 the klan joined the republican party in a deal with the devil as trump is rosemary’s baby.

    asset (02167c) — 12/29/2023 @ 1:20 am

    This is the most pervasive misinformation in my lifetime, I can only applaud the purveyors of how successful they are in getting stupid people to believe this.

    No…asset… the party didn’t “switch sides” on this issue.

    Strom Thurmond isn’t the whole entirety of the Republican Party… Just as Grand Keagle of the KKK Robert Bird (whom Biden to this day considers as a dear friend) isn’t the whole entirety of the Democratic Party.

    whembly (5f7596)

  455. Strom thurmond became a rethugliKKKan and by 1980 the klan joined the republican party in a deal with the devil as trump is rosemary’s baby.

    The worst part of it was that they kept Jill Stein off the NASCAR Honeys centerfold.

    nk (3fdcb7)

  456. Whembly,

    it’s all they have. They need to believe their side is always pristine and pure while their adversary is always evil. And then they support policies that are known throughout history to cause misery and suffering.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  457. “I think it’s really important Pete, for every single American who is seeing this news alert pop up to recognize how dangerous this is,” [Tulsi] Gabbard told “Hannity” guest host Pete Hegseth. “You have a secretary of state who is a known partisan, who is known to be against Trump, she supported the impeachment of Trump, single-handedly making this decision to say the former president cannot be on the ballot, taking away our right as voters in this country to decide who we want to serve as our next president and commander in chief.”
    . . . “This is the M.O. of the Democrat elite. They will stop at nothing to try to maintain their power, even if it means taking away the right to vote of Americans. They have no issue taking Trump off the ballot, they have no issue pursuing him and persecuting him through a weaponized and politicized Department of Justice. They have no qualms doing whatever they feel is necessary to hold on to power. It is ridiculous that we are having this conversation in the United States of America.”

    JVW’s sweetheart calls it correctly. But some support this because they want to be rid of Trump. Even though it will wreck the nation they support this tyrannical behavior. Rule of law be damned.

    NJRob (5750b5)

  458. They could nominate Putin instead. They’ve already shown they don’t care about eligibility.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 11:35 pm

    Nothing in the Constitution bars Trump (or anyone else currently running) from becoming president, as all are at least 35 and natural born citizens. Now maybe someone under indictment or convicted shouldn’t be eligible, but that would take a Constitutional amendment.

    Presidential eligibility fantasy camp.

    TR would have been the nominee in 1920 had he not died in 1919.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/28/2023 @ 11:36 pm

    Your point? There’s a world of difference between the Republican Party of 1919 and 2024. TR or any other past Republican president couldn’t elected in today’s Republican primary. TR was the ultimate big government Republican.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  459. Trump to remain on California’s primary ballot

    …………
    Trump’s name was included in the certified list of candidates sent Thursday to county election officials, as they prepare to print ballots for the primary election.

    The decision from the office of Secretary of State Shirley N. Weber, a Democrat who oversees elections in the state, comes after some officials — including Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis — had called on Weber to disqualify Trump from the ballot. …………
    ……………
    California has 169 GOP delegates, the most of any state in the nation. Polls show Trump holds a wide lead in the primary, with a November UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey showing him having support from 57% of likely Republican voters in the state. The California Republican Party changed its rules over the summer, giving anyone who receives more than 50% of the votes in the primary all of the 169 delegates.
    ……………

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  460. it’s all they have. They need to believe their side is always pristine and pure while their adversary is always evil.

    To be fair, Donald Trump is the actual embodiment of all the leftist perceptions of the GOP. Straight from left-wing “central” casting.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  461. 457, you missed the recent anniversary of Gen.George Patton’s death, many a Twitter/X loon believe Trump to be either a reincarnation or an immaculate-or-illicit conception, based on shared stocky build and ruddy face.

    urbanleftbehind (014eee)

  462. Your point? There’s a world of difference between the Republican Party of 1919 and 2024.

    Teddy didn’t run in 1916 as there were still hard feelings on both sides. A few years after Trump is gone from the scene the damn few who stood up to him will be honored Republicans.

    Were Nikki to stand up against Trump and in favor of Republican values, the other side of the GOP civil war would have an actual champion. Trumpism will not survive Trump.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  463. To be fair, Donald Trump is the actual embodiment of all the leftist perceptions of the GOP. Straight from left-wing “central” casting.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/29/2023 @ 9:07 am

    Nah. That’s just your interpretation. He’s more leftist than I’d prefer as he’s pro-abortion and easily influenced by lefty media. But it’s the usual “all current Republican candidates are the devil incarnate” nonsense that we get every 4 years.

    It’s just sad that some on the right support this evil as well.

    NJRob (185d7a)

  464. But it’s the usual “all current Republican candidates are the devil incarnate” nonsense that we get every 4 years.

    You are blind in this.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  465. To be fair, Donald Trump is the actual embodiment of all the leftist perceptions of the new GOP.

    FIFY

    Rip Murdock (786ccd)

  466. ……… A few years after Trump is gone from the scene the damn few who stood up to him will be honored Republicans.

    With the exception of Christie, who has “stood up” to Trump?

    Were Nikki to stand up against Trump and in favor of Republican values, the other side of the GOP civil war would have an actual champion. Trumpism will not survive Trump.

    Since you have conceded that Haley is not that champion, who is?

    I disagree about Trumpism not surviving Trump. There are other (if less popular) populist Republicans who could assume his place. His sons, for example. The Trump Republican Party is a populist movement.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  467. Rip Murdock has morphed into the less hyperbolic DCSCA.

    urbanleftbehind (014eee)

  468. urbanleftbehind (014eee) — 12/29/2023 @ 10:49 am

    There’s no need to be insulting. Prove your statement.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  469. I just think the Republican Party has changed (admittedly for the worse). Look who controls the House Republican Caucus. It’s not moderate Republicans.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  470. This is a beefy analysis of whether or not the elected position of the Presidency is a “officer of the United States” for the purpose of the 14th Amendment.

    Well worth a read.
    https://reason.com/volokh/2021/02/18/if-donald-trump-is-convicted-of-violating-18-u-s-c-%C2%A7-2383-will-he-be-disqualified-from-serving-as-president/

    Conclusion
    We think a criminal prosecution of Trump is unlikely; we also think a conviction unlikely should he be prosecuted. But even if Trump is convicted of violating 18 U.S.C. § 2383, we do not think he would be disqualified from running for and serving a second term as President, should he win re-election.

    In order to disqualify Trump, from running for and serving a second term as President should he win re-election, on the basis of a conviction under § 2383, many legal hurdles must be overcome. Some of these hurdles would have to be overcome at the criminal trial. Other hurdles would have to be overcome in other downstream legal proceedings, for example, before county and state electoral commissions, courts hearing appeals from those commissions, and possibly Congress. Leaving aside Blakely v. Washington principles, which may apply, here we list four of those hurdles.

    1. The President would have to be an “officer of the United States” as that phrase is used in the jurisdictional element of Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment. Unlike virtually all other politicians, Trump only took one oath to support the Constitution: the presidential oath of office. He could only fit within Section 3’s jurisdictional element if the President is an “officer of the United States.”

    2. The President would also have to hold an “office . . . under the United States” as used in the disqualification element of Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment.

    3. Prosecutors would have to secure a conviction, based upon proof beyond a reasonable doubt, that Trump engaged in “insurrection.” We do not think it clear that a conviction for “incitement” to commit “insurrection” is legally sufficient to disqualify Trump from running for and serving a second term as President should he win re-election.

    4. 18 U.S.C. § 2383 is a “congruent and proportional” means to enforce Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment.

    If any of these hurdles are not overcome, a conviction under 18 U.S.C. § 2383 would not be sufficient to disqualify Trump from running for and serving a second term as President should he win re-election.

    Our position here was not created in the wake of January 6, 2021. In 2016, Tillman publicized a similar analysis in regard to a hypothetical conviction of Secretary Clinton under 18 U.S.C. § 2071, the Federal Records Act. That statute provides:

    Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. (emphasis added).

    In our January 20 post, we said there is some good evidence to suggest that the President does not fit within the jurisdictional element of Section 3—that is, he is not an “officer of the United States.”

    If the presidency is not an “office . . . under the United States” for purposes of Section 3, then § 2383 could not be used to disqualify Trump from running for and serving as President should he win re-election. We reaffirm our position that under the Constitution of 1788, the President does not hold an “office . . . under the United States.” But at this juncture, we take no position whether the President holds an “office . . . under the United States” for purposes of Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment. Based on our most recent survey of the extant literature, including much only published in the wake of January 6, 2021, we think this issue remains unsettled.

    Going forward, the Department of Justice faces a difficult choice. There are legal and political upsides and downsides to prosecuting Trump under § 2383. If Trump were convicted, it may lead some people to conclude that he is disqualified from running for and serving a second term as President should he win re-election. We think this issue is far from clear, but recognize that election boards, courts, and even Congress could reach that conclusion. We discussed those actors in our January 20 post on Section 3. But what if Trump were acquitted of a § 2383 charge? Trump could credibly argue that he did not engage in insurrection, and thus did not run afoul of Section 3. (In much the same way, Trump could cite his two acquittals from impeachment trials as proof of his exoneration.) Therefore, the argument goes, Trump would not be disqualified from running for and serving a second term as President should he win re-election. The decision to bring this prosecution will be made at the highest levels of the Department of Justice, likely by President Biden’s future Attorney General. And we suspect these legal and political risks would factor into the future Attorney General’s decision. Yet, even if Trump is prosecuted and convicted, the scope of disqualification would remain for another day.

    How much do you want to wager, that Special Counsel is going to issue a super-seceding § 2383 insurrection indictment?

    I’d bet the house.

    whembly (5f7596)

  471. How much do you want to wager, that Special Counsel is going to issue a super-seceding § 2383 insurrection indictment?

    I’d bet the house.

    whembly (5f7596) — 12/29/2023 @ 11:38 am

    I’ll take that bet. If Smith was going to indict Trump for insurrection it would have happened at the same time as the election interference indictment (or instead of). An insurrection trial wouldn’t happen until after Nov. 5th, so there wouldn’t be the opportunity to disqualify Trump from running. All judicial proceedings would need to start over.

    Even if Smith had evidence of an act insurrection, there are good reasons not to prosecute, such as the threat of political violence. Prosecutorial discretion.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  472. Rip Murdock (3a0431) — 12/29/2023 @ 12:03 pm

    And if such a trial (and conviction) occurred after the election and Trump won, the Electoral College could conceivably vote for another candidate, or Trump might be impeached after being sworn into office.

    Rip Murdock (786ccd)

  473. To prove a violation of U.S.C. 2383, the prosecution must establish the following elements:

    The defendant knowingly incited, engaged in, or gave aid and comfort to a rebellion or insurrection.
    The rebellion or insurrection was against the authority of the United States or its laws.
    The defendant’s actions were willful and intentional.
    ………..
    (Potential defenses include):

    ………. The prosecution must prove that your actions were willful and intentional. Showing that you lacked specific intent to incite or engage in a rebellion or insurrection could be a viable defense.

    Perhaps we can argue First Amendment protection. In some cases, your actions may be protected under the First Amendment’s guarantee of free speech. However, the First Amendment does not protect speech that incites imminent lawless action.

    Source

    Since the Supreme Court has said that inflammatory speech cannot be prosecuted “unless it directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action”, I doubt that anything Trump said on January 6th would meet that standard.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  474. Rip, this isn’t argument, it’s contradiction.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  475. https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2023/12/29/ohio-gop-gov-mike-dewine-vetoes-bill-protecting-kids-from-transgender-experimentation-trans-participation-girls-sports/

    Kevin,

    you may not like socially conservative government, but this is what you get when you elect a squish as governor instead of a DeSantis. You tell confused children that they can magically be someone they are not and then harm their bodies permanently.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  476. Look who controls the House Republican Caucus. It’s not moderate Republicans.

    I used to like playing RISK, but then I met someone who would “suicide” against anyone who didn’t let him have what he wanted.

    The MAGA folks in the Caucus are like that. Really they ought to be shown the door. If someone did that to Sam Rayburn they’d be in a window seat for the rest of their term.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  477. Rip Murdock (3a0431) — 12/29/2023 @ 12:29 pm

    , I doubt that anything Trump said on January 6th would meet that standard.

    The House impeachment resolution and the Jan 6 committee pretended – and I mean pretended – the opposite and that was one basis for the Colorado removal – the other being that state law supposedly authorized the removal of unqualified candidates.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  478. Now Mike DeWIne is a squish. *sigh*

    You may not realize just how much you are proving everyone’s point about how far down the sewer the “new” GOP has flowed.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  479. Rip Murdock (786ccd) — 12/29/2023 @ 12:07 pm

    or Trump might be impeached after being sworn into office.

    I was hoping that would happen with Clinton, but it took five years and then was not successful/

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  480. And if such a trial (and conviction) occurred after the election and Trump won, the Electoral College could conceivably vote for another candidate

    That would lead to a large armed rebellion and multiple states seceding. You may argue that they would lose, but the 5 million dead would end the country.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  481. Teddy didn’t run in 1916 as there were

    He would have been nominated in 1920 had he not died, and then Charles Evans Hughes had his daughter Elizbeth not had then incurable diabetes.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  482. If Smith was going to indict Trump for insurrection it would have happened at the same time as the election interference indictment

    Maybe he just didn’t have enough time to line up the ducks. But now, with the trial delayed ….

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  483. @482

    Now Mike DeWIne is a squish. *sigh*

    You may not realize just how much you are proving everyone’s point about how far down the sewer the “new” GOP has flowed.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/29/2023 @ 12:46 pm

    On social issues, he is a bit of a squish.

    More accurately, you can say he’s for smaller-government… as if, he’s more libertarian on some issues.

    whembly (5f7596)


  484. This is a beefy analysis of whether or not the elected position of the Presidency is a “officer of the United States” for the purpose of the 14th Amendment.

    Well worth a read.

    No, it’s not. It is the epitome of a technical argument that only interests the most anal of lawyers. Anal-gazing, to coin a term.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  485. On social issues, he is a bit of a squish.

    I am therefore pro-squish. The whole social-conservative agenda is Big Government.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  486. You may not realize just how much you are proving everyone’s point about how far down the sewer the “new” GOP has flowed.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/29/2023 @ 12:46 pm

    Do you think it’s acceptable to mutilate children? He proved as much a coward as our former VP did as Governor of Indiana.

    The war for our future is happening whether you want it to or not. You can just sit quietly and wait to die or stand up and be counted.

    NJRob (cae44c)

  487. Rip, this isn’t argument, it’s contradiction.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/29/2023 @ 12:40 pm

    Not sure what your point is, but in order to convict someone for inciting an insurrection the government would need to prove the inflammatory speech was “directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action”.

    I don’t think Trump crossed that line. His followers may have thought he directed to attack the Capitol, but how they interpreted the speech is immaterial.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/29/2023 @ 12:47 pm

    I agree, and it would happen if Trump was charged with insurrection.

    If Smith was going to indict Trump for insurrection it would have happened at the same time as the election interference indictment

    Maybe he just didn’t have enough time to line up the ducks. But now, with the trial delayed ….

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/29/2023 @ 12:49 pm

    LOL! As I mentioned above, any trial wouldn’t happen until after the election, which would make it a moot point.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  488. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/29/2023 @ 12:44 pm

    Nostalgia for earlier times isn’t productive when analyzing current politics.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  489. Putting the cart before the horse:

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said in a Thursday interview that, if elected president, he would fire special counsel Jack Smith, who brought two indictments against former President Trump, on “day one” of his hypothetical term in office.
    …………..
    DeSantis’s remarks echo much of the sentiment in Trumps remarks, which often focus on the so-called “weaponization” of the Justice Department and holding accountable those responsible for some of Trump’s legal troubles. In pledging to fire Smith, DeSantis further aligns himself with some of Trump’s campaign promises.
    …………

    LOL! I guess DeSantis forgot he needs to win the Republican nomination first before he can do anything about Jack Smith. I’m also certain there are more pressing issues for Republican voters.

    Trump +50 over DeSantis (now tied nationally Haley)

    Trump +32 in Iowa
    Trump +33 in NH

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  490. 124 palestinian children have been killed on the west bank so far this year by Israeli settlers and security forces. What are the netanyahu apologists excuse for killing children on the west bank where the attack on Israel did not come from.

    asset (12a4b0)

  491. Asset,

    getting your numbers from Hamas again?

    NJRob (cae44c)

  492. @495 No! Unicef agency hamas does not control the west bank. So killing 124 children is ok?

    asset (864729)

  493. 2 Republican congressmen SWATTED for Christmas. Jonathan Turley SWATTED yesterday. Where are the consequences for these attempted murders?

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  494. @497 Maine sec. state and colorado judges getting thousands of death treats. Trumpsters harassing them at home. AOC is shown pictures daily of people wanting to kill her. Trump knows what an evil devil he is so takes precautions. Your swatters will be prosecuted if caught.

    asset (864729)

  495. Not sure what your point is

    It’s a line for Monty Python, directed at a nay-sayer.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  496. Rob, you and I don’t often agree but I’ll say this:

    I’m with you 100% on the swatting deserving stiff penalties. Unacceptable ever.

    That said I think the consequences are pretty high and if caught they will be held accountable.

    Nate (1f1d55)

  497. DeWine is not a libertarian. Look at his totalitarian policies regarding COVID.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  498. Nate,

    SWATTers are almost never held accountable. There’s evidence on this site if you look in the history.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  499. Rip,

    I said almost never and told you to look at this site for reference. Your cherry picking doesn’t change that.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  500. The Customs and Border Protection (CBP) have encountered over 276,000 migrants in December, sources told Fox News.

    September held the previous record with 269,735 encounters.

    The CBP defines encounters as migrants who meet border agents at ports of entry either physically or through the CBP One app.

    The number does not include gotaways, which are migrants officials see but do not contact. It obviously does not include those no one sees.

    We still have two days left in December.

    https://legalinsurrection.com/2023/12/biden-border-crisis-agents-encounter-over-276000-migrants-in-december-setting-a-new-record/

    Invasion by mostly military aged men. What could possibly go wrong?

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  501. DeWine is not a libertarian. Look at his totalitarian policies regarding COVID.

    And not a libertine, either, I guess. Or he wouldn’t have done it because masks, social distancing, and lockdowns are surefire cockblocks when political cronies are looking for a little group sex on the side.

    Maybe if Plaxovid investors had slipped him $11 million for his campaign chest?

    nk (eb5322)

  502. The CBP is doing us a disservice by not providing a breakdown of the types of encounters: how many are arrests, detainments, explosions, or denial of entry?

    SamG (4e6c22)

  503. The CBP is doing us a disservice by not providing a breakdown of the types of encounters: how many are arrests, detainments, explosions, or denial of entry?

    A suspicious person would think there’s a reason they don’t.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  504. One of the sadder things in politics these days is how opposition to leftist authoritarians leads to support of rightist authoritarians. Wanting to tell other people what to do is the root of all evil.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  505. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/30/2023 @ 7:09 am

    Explosions?

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  506. Accommodating:

    Nikki Haley doubles down on Trump pardon

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  507. Expulsions*

    SamG (4e6c22)

  508. @508 indeed: if we knew how many were denials of entry (went to a port of entry and were turned away), then we’d have a better idea of where resources and reform were needed.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  509. The CBP is doing us a disservice by not providing a breakdown of the types of encounters: how many are arrests, detainments, explosions, or denial of entry?

    SamG (4e6c22) — 12/30/2023 @ 7:09 am

    Here are the statistics by federal fiscal year (October 1-September 30).

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  510. Southwest Border Operations statistics by FFY, type, demographic, legal authority, country, encounter type and count.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  511. Nikki Haley doubles down on Trump pardon

    Trump needs a pardon from the next president.

    Trump is not going to be the next president

    Haley needs MAGA to vote for her.

    Some assembly required.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  512. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/30/2023 @ 12:32 pm

    I don’t think Trump’s voters in NH will switch their vote to Haley over this statement, but it could cause independents who were planning to vote for her to vote for Christie.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  513. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/30/2023 @ 12:32 pm

    Haley needs MAGA voters in the general election, but she has no chance of them as long as Trump’s in the primary race.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  514. And MAGA despises Haley.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  515. @Rip but that’s not how they talk about it: they just say X number of encounters without elaborating. Their web dashboard doesn’t list those either, just the Title used: see https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters for example.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  516. From that last spreadsheet:

    685 inadmissibles – individuals encountered at ports of entry by officers of the Office of Field Operations (OFO) seeking lawful admission into the United States but are found ineligible for entry under Title 8. These can also include people seeking humanitarian protection and people who voluntarily withdraw their admission application

    667 expulsions – Noncitizen expelled under Title 42 authority to their country of last transit or, if a person cannot be returned to the country of last transit, to their country of origin (see Title 42).

    570 apprehensions – temporary detainment of people by the US Border Patrol (USBP) who crossed the border illegally between ports of entry. They may or may not be arrested under Title 8. These individuals are able to file for asylee status

    SamG (4e6c22)

  517. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/30/2023 @ 12:49 pm

    See post 517.

    Rip Murdock (3a0431)

  518. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/30/2023 @ 1:02 pm

    What I would do is copy the spreadsheet in post 517 into Excel and run a pivot table.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  519. @Rip but that’s not how they talk about it…….

    I can’t help that.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  520. I don’t think Trump’s voters in NH will switch their vote to Haley over this statement, but it could cause independents who were planning to vote for her to vote for Christie.

    You’ve been missing the point all day. Haley is focused on winning the general election, and needs MAGA for that. This won’t move the needle much in the primary, but that’s not the focus.

    Trump has a dandy chance of winning the nomination, of course, but he CAN NOT win the general election against Newsom.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  521. And MAGA despises Haley.

    If it’s Haley vs a Democrat and Trump needs a pardon, they’ll get over it PDQ.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  522. These individuals are able to file for asylee status

    One thing should be changed in the law then: If you enter illegally, you cannot claim asylum.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  523. 525 maybe when I’m back at my laptop. For that last one I just did some countif on the type.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  524. @526 not blaming you: it goes back to my original point that they do us a disservice by combining it all in “encounters”

    SamG (4e6c22)

  525. (CA State Assemblyman) Vince Fong allowed to run for Kevin McCarthy’s seat in Congress

    Vince Fong, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s chosen successor, can run for Congress because the state law restricting candidates from running in multiple races simultaneously no longer applies, a Sacramento County Superior Court judge ruled (on Thursday).
    …………
    Judge Shelleyanne Chang issued her ruling just minutes before the statutory deadline for Secretary of State Shirley Weber’s office to publish a certified list of candidates running in the March 5 primary.
    …………
    The Secretary of State’s office included Fong in the certified candidate list it released tonight for both the 20th Congressional District and his Assembly district, where he is unopposed. But early Friday, Weber said in a statement that she strongly disagrees with the ruling, is “gravely concerned about the consequences” and will appeal it “in an effort to ensure that voters in future elections will not become disenfranchised, be left without representation, or become subject to other unforeseen negative consequences that would erode confidence in our elections.”
    ………….
    Fong’s attorneys argued that Weber’s office used an outdated law — which states, “No person may file nomination papers for a party nomination and an independent nomination for the same office, or for more than one office at the same election” — that was invalidated when California switched from party nominations to a top-two primary system in 2011. They argued that Weber has no authority to “block” Fong from the ballot or decide if candidates are eligible to run for office, but is only empowered to “receive and file” nomination documents.
    ………….
    Brian Hildreth, who represented Fong, argued the law does not explicitly bar someone from seeking both state Legislature and federal offices. The authority to answer that question, he argued, rests with lawmakers — not the Secretary of State or the court.
    …………
    But Seth Goldstein from the Attorney General’s office, representing Weber, argued that if the law barring simultaneous campaigns no longer applies after the top-two primary system was implemented, the state would have seen a proliferation of candidates running for multiple offices in one election.
    …………
    ………… Fong’s candidacy for Congress could still be ruled invalid if a similar legal challenge arises after the election, when Fong may have already won, Chang noted. By then, votes for Fong would essentially not count and those voters would have no chance to select an alternative candidate, she said.

    “How is that not disenfranchising the voters?” Chang asked.
    …………..
    In her ruling, Chang agreed with Hildreth that the state law does not apply to candidates in a top-two primary system.

    But she reiterated her concern that the ruling “may result in voter confusion and the disenfranchisement of voters if Fong is ultimately elected for both offices but does not retain one.”

    “Moreover, it somewhat defies common sense to find the law permits a candidate to run for two offices during the same election,” she wrote. But she said she “is compelled to interpret the law as it is written by the Legislature.”
    …………..

    Related:

    California Secretary of State Shirley Weber will appeal a Sacramento judge’s decision to let Republican Assemblyman Vince Fong run for both Congress and the state Legislature at the same time. And she has an unlikely comrade in her appeals process: MAGA Republican and one of Fong’s competitors for Congress, David Giglio.
    ………….
    On Friday morning, Giglio, who calls himself “the only America First Republican” running for the 20th, released a statement condemning the California Republican Party, which lauded the Sacramento Superior Court judge’s decision.

    “The GOPe (sic) does not care about election integrity,” Giglio said.

    “Ignoring election laws when they benefit their agenda is evidence that the Washington uni-party is joining forces to keep outsiders from breaking into their club and destroying the status quo. They call it ‘Permanent Washington’ for a reason. Kevin McCarthy isn’t actually leaving Congress, he’s installing a puppet who will do the bidding for him and the corrupt RINO (Republican In Name Only) establishment.”
    …………
    “We are officially preparing to file a motion to intervene and join the Secretary of State in the appeals process.”

    Giglio siding with the Secretary of State’s office, led by Democrat Shirley Weber, deepens the schism between the far-right Republican candidate and his party.
    …………
    There are many contenders on the ballot for the 20th Congressional District, California’s reddest and most oddly shaped. Unlike Giglio, multiple Republicans indicated they would not actively campaign if Fong could run, according to a consultant familiar with their plans.

    While they can’t remove their names from the ballot, candidates can encourage voters to choose Fong.
    …………

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  526. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/30/2023 @ 1:15 pm

    Not sure how bad a problem it is in summarizing CPB statistics, I found the links I posted in about 30 seconds.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  527. You’ve been missing the point all day. Haley is focused on winning the general election, and needs MAGA for that. This won’t move the needle much in the primary, but that’s not the focus.

    If that is true, like DeSantis (and his promise to fire Jack Smith), Haley is putting the cart before the horse. Neither can do anything until Trump is defeated as the nominee and either one secures enough delegates for the nomination. For Trump’s challengers, running a general election campaign now is fool hardy.

    Alienating independent voters she needs now to defeat Trump in the NH primary (24 days to go) probably isn’t a good strategy.

    We’ll see if it has an impact in upcoming polls.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  528. Vince Fong, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s chosen successor, can run for Congress because the state law restricting candidates from running in multiple races simultaneously no longer applies, a Sacramento County Superior Court judge ruled (on Thursday).

    Just a few days ago I was assured that this would not happen and that Fong was an idiot for even trying.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  529. Haley is putting the cart before the horse.

    Perhaps. BUt again, this isn’t a normal contest, where you have one candidate who is under about a dozen clouds, but no one who hopes to pick up his support when he explodes can actually run against him.

    Chris Christie isn’t running to be President, he’s running to ensure that Donald Trump is not elected. Sadly, he will probably be the one who ensures Trump’s nomination.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  530. Whatever the narrowness of her path, Nikki Haley is walking it a lot better than Ron DeSantis.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  531. Chang ruled in favor of Fong. 真是一個驚喜 (Quelle surprise!)

    nk (eb5322)

  532. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/30/2023 @ 1:57 pm

    Touché, but the question is what happens to the voters in his assembly district who voted for Fong (assuming Fong wins both elections). Are they disenfranchised (yes)?

    Since the judge blocked the law as it applies to “jungle primary” offices, does that mean a single candidate run in all elections and then pick the one he/she wants?

    My assumption was the judge could foresee such consequences, but apparently not.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  533. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/30/2023 @ 2:04 pm

    Christie will be out of the race by January 31st, one week after the NH primary. He doesn’t have anywhere near the support he has in NH in any other state. He won’t be the cause of Trump winning the Republican nomination, it will Republican voters in the remaining states.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  534. Correction:

    Christie will be out of the race by January 31st, 30th one week after the NH primary.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  535. He won’t be the cause of Trump winning the Republican nomination, it will Republican voters in the remaining states.

    He will be the cause of Trump winning NH by a large margin, instead of maybe getting embarrassed in NH. This is what Trump did in 2016 — he won a bunch of early contests with pluralities until it was too late for anyone else to rally. In each of those early contests he would have lost each one to Cruz or Rubio if the vote wasn’t split 8 ways.

    Voters are imbeciles. They tend to vote for the campaign with momentum and anything that shifts momentum back to Trump (who has been losing support in NH and IA right along) helps him.

    Christie’s ego is Trump’s best friend.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  536. Christie will be out of the race by January 30th one week after the NH primary.

    Too little, too late. Just like Rubio stopped Cruz in Florida.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  537. Since the judge blocked the law as it applies to “jungle primary” offices, does that mean a single candidate run in all elections and then pick the one he/she wants?

    My assumption was the judge could foresee such consequences, but apparently not.

    It’s not the judge’s job to write new law where there is none currently. I would expect the legislature to fix this. There also should be a rule about candidates dropping out at the last minute — that could be abused given collusion.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  538. ……….Trump (who has been losing support in NH and IA right along)……..

    Note really. Trump’s support in both states has remained remarkably consistent since spring. In Iowa he’s polled in the 40-50 percent range (it’s at 50% right now); and in NH it’s been in the mid-40s. All of the polling movement in both states has been among the other candidates cannibalizing each other’s supporters.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  539. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/30/2023 @ 3:51 pm

    Courts construe laws all the time to avoid illogical results. I expect the court of appeals to do just that.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  540. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/30/2023 @ 3:47 pm

    I also expect Ramaswamy to drop out after NH, and his supporters will go to Trump, which will offset any Christie support going to Haley. If/when DeSantis drops out, I expect his supporters to go to Trump also.

    DeSantis is Trump’s Mini-Me, and Ramaswamy is Trump’s Mini Mini-Me.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  541. I wrote the other day: (Thursday December 28) No Labels has more chances, and they should have different candidates for president in red states and in blue states, with a resulting competition to see who comes in third in Electoral votes, and therefore maybe president, and one candidate for vice president: Probably Lisa Murkowski. The Republican Senate will select her over Kamala Harris, even if the House is deadlocked..

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/28/2023 @ 1:23 pm

    Or, if it’s between Lisa Murkowski and Trump’s VP pick,the Democrats will all vote for Lisa Murkowski, and enough REpublicans will vote for her to win. If it’s between Kamala Harris and Trump’s VP the Senate will most likely wait for the House to decide,

    In the two previous contingent elections, 1800-1 and 1824-5 the Matter of the vice presidency was irrelevant. In 1801 it was whoever lost the presidency and in 1825it was John C. Calhoun, who had run for vice president with little competition. In both 1801 and 1825, the House had to choose between only two people – in 1801 becaause the choice was the result of a tie and no one ele got a majority of the electoral votes (with each elector voting for two) and in 1825 because it was a choice between only three and Crawford was disabled, a fact that been kept partially secret during the campaign – and Henry Clay was edged out.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  542. Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 12/30/2023 @ 4:40 pm

    Why would Republicans not vote for Donald Trump and his VP candidate, especially if they didn’t receive a plurality of electoral votes? What incentives would House and Senate members have to vote for a No Labels candidate, especially if they were from outside the political establishment? What would the political base in Congress be for a No Labels candidate not tied to either party?

    Yeah, let’s mess up our political system even more than it already is. No Labels fantasy camp.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  543. Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 12/30/2023 @ 4:40 pm

    As a corollary, what incentives would Democrats have to vote for someone who is not of their party and/or supportive of their policies?

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  544. Maine sec. state has just been swatted along with some colorado officials.

    asset (ff53b6)

  545. @549: Because it’s their last chance to be done with Trump and Trumpism?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  546. Maine sec. state has just been swatted along with some colorado officials.

    Friday’s incident marks the latest swatting call on an elected official. Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott’s Naples home was swatted Wednesday night, police said. Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s home in Rome, Georgia, was swatted on Christmas Day, officials said.

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/30/politics/maine-secretary-of-state-bellows-swatted/index.html

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  547. 911 calls should contain IMEI info and GPS.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  548. You’d think law enforcement would have a DB of politicians’ and celebs’ addresses so they can prevent these incidents.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  549. @549: Because it’s their last chance to be done with Trump and Trumpism?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/30/2023 @ 6:35 pm

    The whole No Labels thing is a political fantasy (especially Sammy’s idea of running separate presidential/VP teams in red and blue states). But I think Trumpism is a majority view of among the House Republican conference. I don’t see either House/Senate Republicans or Democrats supporting someone outside their parties.

    It’s highly unlikely that any No Labels candidate would win electoral votes anyway; but if people thought that the House Republican deadlock over the speakership was bad, it will be worse if Congress needs to pick among four different factions.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  550. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/30/2023 @ 6:35 pm

    Since you believe Christie’s current presence in the NH primary will lead to Trump winning the Republican nomination (he will probably win whether Christie’s in the race or not), running a No Labels campaign in the general would certainly flip marginal states to Trump and make him president.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  551. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/30/2023 @ 6:39 pm

    SamG (4e6c22) — 12/30/2023 @ 7:08 pm

    I believe 911 calls do contain identifying information so operators know if someone calls but can’t respond to questions (injured persons or hostages).

    Apparently there are ways to track down swatters, as evidenced by these arrests.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  552. RIP British actor Tom Wilkinson (75).

    ………..
    Wilkinson was nominated for six BAFTA awards over the course of his career, winning best performance by an actor in a supporting role in 1998 for The Full Monty. His other nods included recognition for Michael Clayton, In the Bedroom and Shakespeare in Love.
    ………..
    For Todd Field’s 2001 film In the Bedroom, he received a best actor Oscar nomination for his role as a bereaved father.

    Wilkinson won an Emmy and a Golden Globe for his role as Benjamin Franklin in HBO’s 2008 John Adams miniseries, starring Paul Giamatti as the titular second president of the United States. At both awards shows, he was also nominated for his role as James Baker in another HBO project, the Jay Roach-directed film Recount, about the contentious weeks after the 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore and the Florida recount.
    …………..
    His other film credits include playing Gotham villain Carmine Falcone in Christopher Nolan’s 2005 film Batman Begins and former president Lyndon B. Johnson in Selma and roles in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Debt, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Belle, Sense and Sensibility, RocknRolla, Rush Hour, The Patriot, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Black Knight, Valkyrie, The Lone Ranger, Denial and Snowden.
    …………

    Wilkinson also received a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Michael Clayton. He was also in the Girl With the Pearl Earring and In The Name of the Father.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  553. It’s highly unlikely that any No Labels candidate would win electoral votes anyway

    Assumes facts not in evidence. Two of the last 3 major alternative candidates won electoral votes, one came in second. The other one got 19% of the vote — and he led in the polls at one point.

    Pointing to noisome fringe candidates isn’t meaningful.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  554. I also expect Ramaswamy to drop out after NH

    He will drop out whenever he’s no longer useful to Trump.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  555. Trump’s support in both states has remained remarkably consistent since spring

    Trump’s support in state where people are campaigning is notably less than in states where they are not.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  556. running a No Labels campaign in the general would certainly flip marginal states to Trump and make him president.

    Depends greatly on who the No Labels candidate is. If they’re center-left, it will ahrm Biden. If they’re center-right, it will harm Trump. And anyway, Trump has likely more GOP-leaning voters who he repels that Biden repels Dem-leaners.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  557. I believe 911 calls do contain identifying information so operators

    It depends on the 911 system. Cell phones do send GPS information on 911 calls, but many 911 systems are antiquated and do not record that data. It’s a problem.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  558. The last third party candidate to get electoral collage votes by winning a state was wallace in 1968.

    asset (ff53b6)

  559. Trump’s support in state where people are campaigning is notably less than in states where they are not.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/30/2023 @ 11:27 pm

    I’m sure any politician would love to have the leads that Trump has now less than a month before voting begins. But who knows, there may be a 32 point flip within the next two weeks in Iowa or a 19 point flip in NH within the next three weeks. You never can tell.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  560. Unless the No Labels candidate has a regional base of support (like Wallace), or is extremely popular, it would be unlikely a NL candidate would win any electors. Perot is a case in point. He received nearly 20% of the vote but it was spread across 50 states.

    No one would describe any of the potential NL candidates (Manchin, Hickenlooper, Murkowski, Larry Hogan, etc.) as extremely popular or charismatic. For example, Manchin is in the same age group as Biden and Trump. They are politicians really no different than any of the candidates who are currently running (except in the number of pending indictments), who couldn’t win reelection in their home states or were termed out.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  561. Rip Murdock (2b4e42) — 12/31/2023 @ 7:57 am

    They’re political leftovers.

    Rip Murdock (edc33f)

  562. Trump has likely more GOP-leaning voters who he repels…..

    So far he’s only repelling 38% of Republican voters.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  563. And a lot of them will end up voting for him in the general election.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  564. Correction to post 567:

    They are politicians really no different than any of the candidates who are currently running (except in the number of pending indictments), and who couldn’t win reelection in their home states or were termed out.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  565. And a lot of them will end up voting for him in the general election.

    Barring extreme events (e.g. Kamala Harris taking over) I will not vote for Donald Trump, as I have not done 4 times previously.

    I find it odd that people think that non-whackjob Republicans will vote for Trump instead of Biden, then go on to say that No Labels holds no attraction for anyone.

    People may vote strategically, but they poll by strict preference. If polls show that No Labels has a reasonable chance, those strategic voters will consider them. Despite being unlikely to win, Ross Perot got 19% of the vote.

    That’s one in 5 voters that said “FU” to the major parties, at a time when neither major candidate was senile or crazy and both parties were still mainstream.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  566. How far outside the mainstream can the two parties get before the center rejects them both? There must be a point.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  567. Despite being unlikely to win, Ross Perot got 19% of the vote.

    That’s one in 5 voters that said “FU” to the major parties, at a time when neither major candidate was senile or crazy and both parties were still mainstream.

    It may have been a big FU to the mainstream political establishment, but one of those parties actually won.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  568. RIP legendary Las Vegas comedian Sheckey Greene (97).

    Rip Murdock (0ba5f5)

  569. Sheckey=Shecky

    Rip Murdock (0ba5f5)

  570. And a lot of them (anti-Trump primary voters) will end up voting for him in the general election.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42) — 12/31/2023 @ 8:05 am

    Barring extreme events (e.g. Kamala Harris taking over) I will not vote for Donald Trump, as I have not done 4 times previously……..

    I find it odd that people think that non-whackjob Republicans will vote for Trump instead of Biden………
    …………
    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/31/2023 @ 9:39 am

    Thanks for proving my point. Republican voters may oppose Trump in the primary, but most will find an excuse to vote for him in the general election.

    Rip Murdock (0ba5f5)

  571. And the band played on as the titanic slowly sank.

    asset (d22a1f)

  572. Republican voters may oppose Trump in the primary, but most will find an excuse to vote for him in the general election.

    Only i there is no preferable alternative. To me, Biden is not as terrible a choice as Trump. I will vote for someone else unless it’s close, then I’ll vote for Biden.

    This is not because I prefer Biden’s policies, but because he is not a deranged child who will kill us all. If it comes down to Biden vs Trump, I will be praying for God to step in.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  573. Republican voters may oppose Trump in the primary, but most will find an excuse to vote for him in the general election.

    I wonder how many people here believe they will vote for Trump if he’s the GOP candidate versus Biden or Newsom?

    I won’t. I’d pretty much bet that Paul, nk, lurker, Appalled, Jim Miller, Dustin, Nate and our host will never vote for Trump.

    Most of these people would have been considered partisan Republicans in 2015. Trump BROKE that. Sure, he attracted a lot of flibbertigibbets to his cause, but he repelled a goodly portion (probably a majority) of those who voted for Romney in 2012.

    George W Bush and his father voted for Hillary, as did Condi Rice. To say that actual Republicans would fall in line is absurd. The people who call themselves Republicans now are either people with out backbone or people without character. Or both.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  574. The Dispatch has a column about wingnuts. My quick test: Anyone who uses the term “RINO” is a wingnut.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  575. Sorry, whackjob, not wingnuts. I apologize to the mere wingnuts.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  576. https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2023/12/31/do-you-live-in-an-anti-free-speech-state-jonathan-turley-lays-out-the-list-n2168126

    But 23 states and the District of Columbia have now signed on with the Biden administration as “amici states” to combat “harmful content” on the internet and “misleading information.” That’s the list Turley is talking about.

    NEW YORK, ARIZONA, CALIFORNIA, COLORADO, CONNECTICUT, DELAWARE, HAWAI‘I, ILLINOIS, MAINE, MARYLAND, MASSACHUSETTS, MICHIGAN, MINNESOTA, NEVADA, NEW JERSEY, NEW MEXICO, OREGON, PENNSYLVANIA, RHODE ISLAND, VERMONT, WASHINGTON, WISCONSIN, AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

    They spit on the Constitution, but Kevin you act like under Biden it’s business as normal. Get a grip.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  577. Trump is a million times better than any Democrat. The media and the establishment will do everything possible to undermine him. They won’t coverup his crimes. They will attack him for the slightest transgression. While under any leftist regime they act tyrannically under the cover of darkness and with a fully compliant pravda media.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  578. I agree with Rob that the Biden administrations has a chilling impact on free speech. (I assume that’s what he meant under the rage and hyperbole)

    While the government has its own speech rights and private companies have their own rights to speech in this case the policy goes too far.

    Time123 (f04709)

  579. Here’s something interesting:

    There have been 18 completed 4-year Presidential terms since 1948. Dems for 8, GOP for 10.
    6 Dem terms ended with lower unemployment than they began. 1 ended higher, and 1 stayed the same.
    8 GOP terms ended with higher unemployment. 2 ended with lower.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  580. How does that break down by control of the House and the Senate, Sam?

    BuDuh (6a7d21)

  581. They spit on the Constitution, but Kevin you act like under Biden it’s business as normal. Get a grip.

    I will not change one statist for another, especially one who I judge insane.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  582. The best case you can make for Trump is that there will be people trying to stop his insanity? Biden may be senile, but people can actually tell him NO.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  583. Why is low unemployment a measure of success? And why do we only measure presidents?

    How about we measure Congresses and deficits?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  584. Trump has talked about setting up concentration camps for suspected illegals and using the armed forces to do it. He has declared that members of the military are traitors and should be executed. I have no reason to believe he cares about free speech for those who disagree with him, and has used the national guard to remove protesters who got in the way of his photo-op.

    The man is fukking crazy. A mere assh0le like Biden is much less of an issue.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  585. Driving around midnight on freeway passed dps patrol suv pulling over black dodge charger he takes off and leaves dps suv like he was standing still. As he passed my car his tail lights went out and you could hardley see it. I think he pulled off the off ramp and the dps suv kept going. lic. plate was in down position. Thats my new years. Home now.

    asset (b564c1)

  586. Happy New Year.

    I will avoid partisanship today. Enjoy the day.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  587. Happy New Year, everybody!

    nk (d0eaff)

  588. Thread on the last ~30 years of spending/deficit/debt by party control of POTUS/Senate/House at https://x.com/TheValuesVoter/status/1660164533833420801?s=20.

    It’s likely all coincidence: still interesting how those coincidences work out.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  589. I just saw Boys in the Boat last night. Excellent film, and I’m praying that my present-day Huskies play like Olympic gold medalists today.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  590. Happy New Year.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  591. Here’s a New Year’s salutation from the mentally unhinged freakshow who leads my party and has 62.5% support for the nomination. For me, I’ll just Happy New Year to all, even you losers, cranks and haters.

    As the New Year fast approaches, I would like to wish an early New Year’s salutation to Crooked Joe Biden and his group of Radical Left Misfits & Thugs on their never ending attempt to DESTROY OUR NATION through Lawfare, Invasion, and Rigging Elections. They are now scrambling to sign up as many of those millions of people they are illegally allowing into sour [sic] Country, in order that they will be ready to VOTE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2024.

    Even his blond-hued three-weave combover is a lie.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  592. The sedition continues.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  593. Sedition:

    Sedition is overt conduct, such as speech or organization, that tends toward rebellion against the established order. Sedition often includes subversion of a constitution and incitement of discontent toward, or insurrection against, established authority. Sedition may include any commotion, though not aimed at direct and open violence against the laws. Seditious words in writing are seditious libel. A seditionist is one who engages in or promotes the interest of sedition.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  594. If you don’t think that

    They are now scrambling to sign up as many of those millions of people they are illegally allowing into our Country, in order that they will be ready to VOTE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2024

    is seditious, please show some evidence that this is happening, or has happened.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  595. It’s a false accusation of the beginnings of an attempt to steal the election;it is not sedition – if anything it accuses the opposing party of sedition.

    It also is believable only to someone who doesn’t think. It assumes you need real one-time in person voters to steal an election

    It’s as stupid as thinking you can prevent climate disaster by personally using less oil.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  596. It is seditious libel, plain and simple, since it has no basis in fact.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  597. Seditious libel is libel with the purpose of supporting sedition – violence against constituted authority. You could say this claim, if repeated, could eventually lead to that if things go a certain way, but there’s nothing to rebel against yet.

    Anyway, Trump made this claim in order to supply a disrreputable, and amti-Republican, motive for the Democrats to support more illegal immigration, or oppose HR2

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  598. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/31/2023 @ 9:59 pm

    Trump has….declared that members of the military are traitors and should be executed.

    One (former) member of the military, the then Chairman iof the Joint Chiefs of Staff because he wrote in a book after he retired that he had communicated with China behind his back, telling them the United States did not plan to go to war with China and he would tell them if it did.

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  599. Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/1/2024 @ 9:46 am

    I’m not certain what your point is. “Seditious libel” hasn’t been a thing since the Sedition Act of 1798, which

    permitted the deportation, fine, or imprisonment of anyone deemed a threat or publishing “false, scandalous, or malicious writing” against the government of the United States.

    The Sedition Act expired in 1801. Prosecutions would be clearly unconstitutional under current US Supreme Court First Amendment rulings.

    There is no crime of “sedition” or “seditious libel,” only seditious conspiracy.

    Trump’s statements are neither sedition or seditious conspiracy.

    Rip Murdock (0ba5f5)

  600. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/31/2023 @ 9:54 pm

    And why do we only measure presidents?

    How about we measure Congresses and deficits?

    The assumption is that opinion about the economy this affects how people vote for president. regardless of who or what is really responsible.

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  601. Strike out the word “this” after the word economy.

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  602. Republican voters may oppose Trump in the primary, but most will find an excuse to vote for him in the general election.

    I wonder how many people here believe they will vote for Trump if he’s the GOP candidate versus Biden or Newsom?

    I won’t. I’d pretty much bet that Paul, nk, lurker, Appalled, Jim Miller, Dustin, Nate and our host will never vote for Trump.
    …………..

    I was speaking of the 38% in national polls, not anyone here, that now say they will vote for a non-Trump candidate.

    As I’ve said in the past, I expect 50% (if not more) of DeSantis’s supporters, 100% of Ramaswamy’s, and maybe even a few of Haley’s, will support Trump if he is nominated.

    Rip Murdock (0ba5f5)

  603. Many people assume – based on political mythology of “Republicans are better for the economy” – that recessions and unemployment would be better under GOP presidents. And for whatever reason that doesn’t seem to be the case. Dunno the reason why it is – it’s just interesting.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  604. I’m not certain what your point is. “Seditious libel” hasn’t been a thing since the Sedition Act of 1798, which

    It’s still a thing. It may not be a crime, but it’s still a thing. And it may well be libel.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  605. If Trump said that Biden was letting people into the country so that they could be registered to vote in 2024, it could be a libel, even under Sullivan

    Untrue, recklessly so, and spawned by actual malice. To the degree that “Truth” Social is under Trump’s control, it may not have the CDA safe harbor either.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  606. The assumption is that opinion about the economy this affects how people vote for president. regardless of who or what is really responsible.

    That was not what he was saying at all. He was saying that GOP presidents are responsible for unemployment.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  607. I was speaking of the 38% in national polls, not anyone here, that now say they will vote for a non-Trump candidate.

    I will vote for Jill Stein before I vote for Trump.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  608. Dunno the reason why it is – it’s just interesting.

    How about this one: The Mommy party lets the kids draw on the wall with crayons, the Daddy party makes them clean it up.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  609. Seditious libel is libel with the purpose of supporting sedition – violence against constituted authority.

    No it is not, and the definition I quoted SAYS it is not. It simply needs to encourage disaffection, and in this case it casts doubt on the entire voting system, the immigration process, naturalization and, well, the entire federal government.

    Eff him. Joe McCarthy would have been embarrassed to say that and Roy Cohn had more class.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  610. Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/1/2024 @ 8:19 pm

    Even if everything you say is true (and I don’t think it is) Biden wouldn’t sue over what would be considered by any court to be protected political speech or opinion.

    It’s like when Biden says Trump is a threat to democracy. It’s an exaggeration to make a political point.

    What is the source of your definition of “seditious libel”? Is it enforceable through the courts?

    Rip Murdock (0ba5f5)

  611. Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/1/2024 @ 8:19 pm

    And who would have standing to enforce a “seditious libel” claim against Trump?

    Rip Murdock (0ba5f5)

  612. There’s that imagination again.

    Rip Murdock (0ba5f5)

  613. Even if everything you say is true (and I don’t think it is) Biden wouldn’t sue over what would be considered by any court to be protected political speech or opinion.

    Is there nothing a politician can say that would constitute libel?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  614. What is the source of your definition of “seditious libel”? Is it enforceable through the courts?

    All libel is enforceable through the courts.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  615. BUt really, all I said that what he said was seditious and libelous. Both of which are patently true (or do you think that Biden is secretly registering asylum seekers to vote?)

    I did not say it was a crime. YOU put those words in my mouth then denounced me for them.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  616. Seditious libel was one of the small “g” grievances of the American Revolution which led to the First Amendment. “The bigger the truth, the bigger the libel” it was said.

    If you wanted it to fly, today, you would need a World War with universal conscription and judges whose retirement investments were in ordnance and MREs.

    nk (072ba3)

  617. Is there nothing a politician can say that would constitute libel?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/1/2024 @ 11:26 pm

    All libel is enforceable through the courts.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/1/2024 @ 11:27 pm

    Not every false statement is libelous, and certainly not ones that are exaggerations for effect. I believe under the First Amendment there is very little a politician could be sued for saying, especially about a political issue. Trump, in his statement quoted in Paul’s post 598 is not “libelous” against Biden personally (“they”) ; it is an expression of opinion, which the Supreme Court has said is protected by the Constitution. At best Trump “libeled” the government, and I don’t know of any statute that would allow the government to sue in its defense. Under English common law “seditious libel” was used to protect the sovereign from criticism. I don’t think we want to go back to that.

    Politicians have been mudslinging among themselves throughout our history, and Trump’s statements are mild in comparison (footnotes omitted):

    A legal commentator more than fifty years ago aptly noted that “[c]harges of gross incompetence, disregard of the public interest, communist sympathies, and the like usually have filled the air; and hints of bribery, embezzlement, and other criminal conduct are not infrequent.” More recently, another legal commentator stated, “Lies in politics and political campaigns are nothing new.”

    Consider the particularly apt statement from a California appeals court:

    Our political history reeks of unfair, intemperate, scurrilous and irresponsible charges against those in or seeking public office. Washington was called a murderer, Jefferson a blackguard, a knave and insane (“Mad Tom”), Henry Clay a pimp, Andrew Jackson a murderer and an adulterer, and Andrew Johnson and Ulysses Grant drunkards. Lincoln was called a half-witted usurper, a baboon, a gorilla, a ghoul. Theodore Roosevelt was castigated as a traitor to his class, and Franklin Delano Roosevelt as a traitor to his country. Dwight D. Eisenhower was charged with being a conscious agent of the Communist Conspiracy.

    During the 1800 election between incumbent John Adams and his former vice president Thomas Jefferson, Adams’ supporters falsely claimed that if Jefferson won the election, Americans “would see their wives and daughters the victims of legal prostitution.”………
    …………
    …….(P)olitical speech represents the core type of speech the First Amendment was designed to protect. The U.S. Supreme Court famously declared that there is a “profound national commitment to the principle that debate on public issues should be uninhibited, robust, and wide open, and that it may well include vehement, caustic, and sometimes unpleasantly sharp attacks on government and public officials.” (N.Y. Times Co. v. Sullivan, 376 U.S. 254, 270 (1964)). Two years later (in Mills v. Alabama, 384 U.S. 214, 218 (1966)), the Court explained: “Whatever differences may exist about interpretations of the First Amendment, there is practically universal agreement that a major purpose of that Amendment was to protect the free discussion of governmental affairs.”
    ……………
    (The concept of rhetorical hyperbole) provides that even heated and emotional rhetoric deserves free-speech protection in a free society. ………
    ………..
    The Supreme Court has noted that “statements that cannot reasonably [be] interpreted as stating actual facts about an individual” made in debate over public matters are constitutionally protected to “provide[] assurance that public debate will not suffer for lack of ‘imaginative expression’ or the ‘rhetorical hyperbole’ which has traditionally added much to the discourse of our Nation.”

    If you can’t stand the heat, stay out of kitchen.

    Rip Murdock (0ba5f5)

  618. @613 I specifically did not make such an allegation, nor stated any particular cause. These are just things that are true.

    Another coincidence: since the Great Depression ended, every GOP 4-year Presidential term – excepting Reagan’s second – had a recession begin. The Dems had 3 terms where a recession began, the last one being Carter.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  619. If you can’t stand the heat, stay out of kitchen.

    If you can’t stop misrepresenting, then stop talking.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  620. The Jefferson-Adams election was a low point of political discourse. I would not use it as the bar. But even then, neither politician attacked the Constitution or the fabric of government, only that the other was somehow wanting.

    Trump is attacking the foundations of the American system with statements that — if true — would be cause for revolution. Which is his goal. He wants not only to be re-elected, but to sow the seeds for overthrowing the constitutional order.

    As such it is seditious — speech intended to attack the state and the legitimacy of the government — not speech intended to disparage a candidate. Trump is running against the Constitution, not Joe Biden. That Biden plays chicken with the Constitution isn’t the same thing.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  621. Rip Murdock (2b4e42) — 12/30/2023 @ 7:43 pm

    The whole No Labels thing is a political fantasy

    It is only a fantasy – AT LEAST MY IDEA – that there will be some at least bad No Labels ticket running in many states has a greater than even chance of being done – because it is hard to see someone important taking it up.

    (especially Sammy’s idea of running separate presidential/VP teams in red and blue states).

    No, I said different presidential candidates in red and blue states (whichever one polls higher) but the same vice presidential candidate everywhere, probably Lisa Murkowski. This is based on what the Whig Party, somewhat accidentally, did in 1836, modified somewhat..

    But I think Trumpism is a majority view of among the House Republican conference. I don’t see either House/Senate Republicans or Democrats supporting someone outside their parties.

    26 states are needed and a state can be deadlocked, and 6 states’ votes (Vermont, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming and Alaska) are decided by a single member of Congress. In practical terms, more than a majority of the House (around 57% if no switches are made) is necessary to pick a president. The House is likely to be deadlocked at first. But there are likely to be about 8-12 key members who could determine the result by switching,

    It’s highly unlikely that any No Labels candidate would win electoral votes anyway;

    Ifn states where either Biden or Trump polls third, their support is likely to drop away, and if there is competition for third place that is even more reason for someone to vote No Labels. And already third party is polling at 17% (with both Biden and Trump in the mid-30s – the rest undecided, or no answer

    but if people thought that the House Republican deadlock over the speakership was bad, it will be worse if Congress needs to pick among four different factions.

    No, the House can pick from only the top three. That’s a key point. (if there’s a tie for 3rd and 4th place, the constitution has no answer)

    And the Senate only from the top two vice presidential candidates.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  622. Trump is attacking the foundations of the American system with statements that — if true — would be cause for revolution. Which is his goal. He wants not only to be re-elected, but to sow the seeds for overthrowing the constitutional order.

    As such it is seditious — speech intended to attack the state and the legitimacy of the government — not speech intended to disparage a candidate…….

    Again, as far as I can tell there is no federal “seditious libel” statute that allows the government to sue anyone over such language. The First Amendment protects his right to say what he wants about the president or the government.

    Rip Murdock (0ba5f5)

  623. Even those who advocated the violent overthrow of the US government were found to be protected by the First Amendment.

    Rip Murdock (0ba5f5)

  624. @603

    It is seditious libel, plain and simple, since it has no basis in fact.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/1/2024 @ 11:35 am

    Then explain why Democrats are for open borders?

    whembly (5f7596)

  625. Then explain why Democrats are for open borders?

    Do you believe that they are registering new arrivals to vote in 2024? Even a few?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  626. Even those who advocated the violent overthrow of the US government were found to be protected by the First Amendment.

    In one case. Not in all cases. Yates only limited the scope of the law in question. That law had been held constitutional, and convictions under it were upheld in Dennis, which was never overturned.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  627. @632

    Then explain why Democrats are for open borders?

    Do you believe that they are registering new arrivals to vote in 2024? Even a few?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/2/2024 @ 8:53 am

    I believe that Democrats believes that they unfettered illegal immigration will be a net-positive for Democrat’s electoral changes in maintaining power.

    I believe that if Democrat’s believes they can get away with it, they’ll register illegals to vote in any elections.

    whembly (5f7596)

  628. 18 U.S. Code § 2385 remains on the books.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  629. Lol: doesn’t matter what Democrats say or do, there will always be a segment of the GOP that screams “OPEN BORDERS”.

    Sam G (8d2ed1)

  630. I believe that if Democrats believe they can get away with it, they’ll register illegals to vote in any elections.

    I am going to assume that you mean “some Democrats” and possibly even “some Democrat officials”, and not something that is inherent in being a member of the Democrat Party.

    As such, I will point out that there are PLENTY of current Republicans who will burn ballot boxes, or storm the Capitol, to help Donald Trump.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  631. Lol: doesn’t matter what Democrats say or do, there will always be a segment of the GOP that screams “OPEN BORDERS”.

    I doubt it. There are some who used to say that, but that has been put to rest. Only projection, or deception, by Democrats suggests that remains viable in the GOP..

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  632. @636

    Lol: doesn’t matter what Democrats say or do, there will always be a segment of the GOP that screams “OPEN BORDERS”.

    Sam G (8d2ed1) — 1/2/2024 @ 9:07 am

    This year, I’m a single issue voter. The border.

    My son lost TWO friends due to fentanyl overdoses. So, shove a cacti up where it doesn’t shine with your flippant retort here.

    The border is untenable, for the following reasons:
    a) massive illicit drug trade
    b) massive human traffiking
    c) massive boon for Cartels
    d) massive security concern

    It’s not so much I have a xenophobic position on this topic, as I don’t mind legal immigration at all.

    But these Biden border policies is flat out impeachable and any GOP candidate, including Trump, is lightyears better than the current administration.

    whembly (5f7596)

  633. @637

    I believe that if Democrats believe they can get away with it, they’ll register illegals to vote in any elections.

    I am going to assume that you mean “some Democrats” and possibly even “some Democrat officials”, and not something that is inherent in being a member of the Democrat Party.

    As such, I will point out that there are PLENTY of current Republicans who will burn ballot boxes, or storm the Capitol, to help Donald Trump.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/2/2024 @ 9:07 am

    It takes ALL of them.

    Democrat leadership setting open border policies knowing EXACTLY what is going to happen.

    “Some” Democrat grassroots, “Some” Democrat-adjacent NGOs facilitating the illegal migrations.

    ALL of them, doing so with the belief that illegal immigration will become voters at some point whom would vote Democrats because the illegal immigrants want to stay here.

    So, to me, it’s a problem solely on the Democrat Party, and we should vote accordingly.

    whembly (5f7596)

  634. Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/2/2024 @ 8:59 am

    The Court distinguished Yates from Dennis:

    The essence of the Dennis holding was that indoctrination of a group in preparation for future violent action, as well as exhortation to immediate action, by advocacy found to be directed to “action for the accomplishment” of forcible overthrow, to violence as “a rule or principle of action,” and employing “language of incitement,” is not constitutionally protected when the group is of sufficient size and cohesiveness, is sufficiently oriented towards action, and other circumstances are such as reasonably to justify apprehension that action will occur. This is quite a different thing from the view of the District Court here that mere doctrinal justification of forcible overthrow, if engaged in with the intent to accomplish overthrow, is punishable per se under the Smith Act. That sort of advocacy, even though uttered with the hope that it may ultimately lead to violent revolution, is too remote from concrete action to be regarded as the kind of indoctrination preparatory to action which was condemned in Dennis. As one of the concurring opinions in Dennis put it:

    “Throughout our decisions, there has recurred a distinction between the statement of an idea which may prompt its hearers to take unlawful action, and advocacy that such action be taken.”

    The Court drew a distinction between the “advocacy and teaching of forcible overthrow as an abstract principle” and the “advocacy and teaching of concrete action for the forcible overthrow of the Government.” Yates limited the Smith Act so much it nearly became unenforceable.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  635. 18 U.S. Code § 2385 remains on the books.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/2/2024 @ 9:04 am

    18 U.S. Code § 2385 is the Smith Act, which has been reduced to a nullity by Yates and other court decisions.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  636. @639 fentanyl comes through legal ports of entry. More fentanyl has been seized under the Biden admin than ever was under Trump.

    Democrats are just as interested in eliminating illegal immigration as Republicans – perhaps more so, considering the GOP refuses to make a deal so they can keep immigration an election issue. More immigrants have been detained under Biden than Trump; and you don’t care because it’s Democrats and not Republicans that are doing so, just as Obama deported more immigrants than Trump ever did.

    Sam G (8d2ed1)

  637. And yet, the Dennis appellants remained convicted. Donald Trump on J6 could have gotten to that point had he gone down to the Capitol and encouraged the assault. God only knows what he was saying on his (burner) cell phone.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  638. More fentanyl has been seized under the Biden admin than ever was under Trump.

    Does not mean less is coming through.

    Democrats are just as interested in eliminating illegal immigration as Republicans

    But they want to do it by removing the illegality, not by enforcing the current law.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  639. Thank you for demonstrating exactly what I’m talking about: Democrats increase enforcement and show it, and that’s used to say that the Democrats are failing at enforcement.

    That is not anywhere near accurate. The deal that Ron Johnson crows about killing would have reportedly made asylum claims tougher, allowed CBP to more easily remove migrants that are found to be ineligible; invested more into border security than originally proposed by Biden (>$14bil); and reformed policies to deter illegal crossings and encourage legal applications for migration.

    Sam G (8d2ed1)

  640. Our drug policies are failing us: we target supply instead of demand, we treat addiction as a crime instead of a health issue. We refuse to take the steps necessary to combat drug usage on a moral basis, rather than an evidence-based approach.

    Sam G (8d2ed1)

  641. Whembly, it sucks that your son’s friends died of fentanyl overdoses. I’m sorry that so many refuse to back the support systems that would have either prevented them from being users in the first place, or helped them get treatment/support to stop using.

    Sam G (8d2ed1)

  642. And yet, the Dennis appellants remained convicted. …..

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/2/2024 @ 9:59 am

    Dennis was decided in 1951 while Yates (involving a different set of defendants) was decided in 1956.. The SC reversed the convictions of five defendants and remanded for new trials the remaining nine. Of the nine, apparently only one was retried and convicted.

    In addition to Yates, the SC in 1969 ruled in Brandenburg v. Ohio:

    ……that the government cannot punish inflammatory speech unless that speech is “directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action”.

    Dennis v. United States was overturned in this decision.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  643. Brandenburg specifically did not overturn Dennis, and cited it as an authority. It did limit the Smith Act to incitement of imminent events, but in those events Smith still holds.

    Now, does Trump’s speech immediately prior to the J6 events matter here? Probably not as far as the Smith Act, as there was no attempt to OVERTHROW the government, but that does not mean that his speech was protected.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  644. Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/2/2024 @ 9:59 am

    Donald Trump on J6 could have gotten to that point had he gone down to the Capitol and encouraged the assault.

    He wasn’t going to encourage the assault. It only interfered with his plans. Remember, stopping the certification through Jaan 20 would not extend his tenure by a minute – it would only make Nancy Pelosi Acting president.

    God only knows what he was saying on his (burner) cell phone.

    Is that the phone he used to talk to Senator Tommy Tuberville, urging him not to drop his objections? Trump was worried the rampage would accelerate the certification process.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  645. @Whembly AFAICT, Democrats are not for open borders. They do appear to be for looser immigration laws. However, given the choice between harsh enforcement that seems to harm people or less stringent enforcement that doesn’t seem to, they will tend toward choosing less stringent enforcement. I suspect that given the resources to more quickly process asylum requests and visa renewals, even under Democrats far fewer people would be illegally staying in the US.

    Nic (896fdf)

  646. Corporate establishment democrats are afraid open borders will allow AOC to take over the party and become president.

    asset (872ba3)

  647. @652

    @Whembly AFAICT, Democrats are not for open borders. They do appear to be for looser immigration laws. However, given the choice between harsh enforcement that seems to harm people or less stringent enforcement that doesn’t seem to, they will tend toward choosing less stringent enforcement. I suspect that given the resources to more quickly process asylum requests and visa renewals, even under Democrats far fewer people would be illegally staying in the US.

    Nic (896fdf) — 1/2/2024 @ 1:36 pm

    This is laughably and demonstratively untethered to reality.

    The situation at the border is a choice by the Biden Administration, with all the usual Democrats supporting it.

    They let it be known that illegals gets to stay here by gaming the system.

    So, yes, it is Democrats who want’s open borders.

    You can tell this by all the hemming and hawing over GOP’s demands for stricter border policies for any additional funding for Ukraine.

    whembly (5f7596)


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