Patterico's Pontifications

12/15/2023

Weekend Open Thread

Filed under: General — Dana @ 11:11 am



[guest post by Dana]

Let’s go!

First news item

San Francisco takes another hit:

The San Francisco Giants have missed out on several marquee free agents in recent seasons, the latest apparently being Shohei Ohtani.

One franchise legend, recently retired star catcher Buster Posey, says the perception of the city may be playing a role in the team’s failures to land a game-breaking star in free agency.

“Something I think is noteworthy, something that unfortunately keeps popping up from players and even the players’ wives is there’s a bit of an uneasiness with the city itself, as far as the state of the city, with crime, with drugs,” Posey said in an interview with The Athletic.

“Whether that’s all completely fair or not, perception is reality,” Posey added.

Second news item

A former editorial-page editor at the New York Times has an insightful analysis about how things have gone wrong:

The Times’s problem has metastasised from liberal bias to illiberal bias, from an inclination to favour one side of the national debate to an impulse to shut debate down altogether. All the empathy and humility in the world will not mean much against the pressures of intolerance and tribalism without an invaluable quality that Sulzberger did not emphasise: courage.

. . .doing the work right today demands a particular kind of courage: not just the devil-may-care courage to choose a profession on the brink of the abyss; not just the bulldog courage to endlessly pick yourself up and embrace the ever-evolving technology; but also, in an era when polarisation and social media viciously enforce rigid orthodoxies, the moral and intellectual courage to take the other side seriously and to report truths and ideas that your own side demonises for fear they will harm its cause.

One of the glories of embracing illiberalism is that, like Trump, you are always right about everything, and so you are justified in shouting disagreement down. In the face of this, leaders of many workplaces and boardrooms across America find that it is so much easier to compromise than to confront – to give a little ground today in the belief you can ultimately bring people around. This is how reasonable Republican leaders lost control of their party to Trump and how liberal-minded college presidents lost control of their campuses. And it is why the leadership of the New York Times is losing control of its principles.

Read the whole thing.

Third news item

Yale condemns in the “strongest possible terms”:

Over the weekend, a Palestinian flag was placed on the menorah. Police said they do not know the identity of the person who put the flag there. . .

The incident came amid pressure on top universities to address a rise in antisemitic incidents in their communities.

“Yale condemns in the strongest possible terms the desecration of a menorah on the New Haven Green during the religious holiday of Chanukah,” Yale said in a statement Sunday.

“The placement of a Palestinian flag on the menorah conveys a deeply antisemitic message to Jewish residents of New Haven, including members of the Yale community,” the school said.

But what will they actually *do* about it??

Fourth news item

When enough is enough:

When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ignited into war, back in Moscow, a young Russian who now goes by the name of Karabas was plunged into despair. Shocked by images of what was happening to Ukrainians in Russian-occupied areas, he decided to act — against Russia, his home and country. . . It took him almost a year to make it happen.

Today, he is part of the Siberian Battalion, a unit made up of Russians who have joined Ukrainian military ranks to fight against their homeland, hoping someday to help oust Russian President Vladimir Putin. Its members hail mostly from ethnic minorities from Russia’s far east. . .

Unlike other volunteer units in Ukraine that have Russian nationals…the Siberian Battalion is officially part of the regular Ukrainian army.

Fifth news item

Considering his close ties to Putin, this can’t be a surprise to anyone:

Hungary has blocked €50bn ($55bn; £43bn) in EU aid for Ukraine – just hours after an agreement was reached on starting membership talks. “Summary of the nightshift: veto for the extra money to Ukraine,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said after Thursday’s talks in Brussels.

According to the report, Russia was impressed by Orban’s actions.

Sixth news item

Navalny has ‘gone missing’:

Allies of imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny said his lawyer was told in court on Friday that he had been moved from the penal colony east of Moscow where he has been serving time but was not told where he was taken.

The disclosure that Navalny was moved out of Penal Colony No. 6, in the town of Melekhovo in the Vladimir region, came at a hearing on a lawsuit he had filed against officials at the maximum security facility. The hearing was adjourned after that.

The whereabouts of Navalny, 47, have been unknown since his lawyers lost touch with him after Dec. 6.

Navalny spokeswoman Kira Yarmysh said the politician’s lawyer was told in court that the politician “left the Vladimir region” on Monday.

Seventh news item

Has anyone checked the bathroom??:

A binder containing highly classified information related to Russian election interference went missing at the end of Donald Trump’s presidency, raising alarms among intelligence officials that some of the most closely guarded national security secrets from the US and its allies could be exposed, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

Its disappearance, which has not been previously reported, was so concerning that intelligence officials briefed Senate Intelligence Committee leaders last year about the missing materials and the government’s efforts to retrieve them, the sources said.

In the two-plus years since Trump left office, the missing intelligence does not appear to have been found.

The binder contained raw intelligence the US and its NATO allies collected on Russians and Russian agents, including sources and methods that informed the US government’s assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to help Trump win the 2016 election, sources tell CNN.

The intelligence was so sensitive that lawmakers and congressional aides with top secret security clearances were able to review the material only at CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, where their work scrutinizing it was itself kept in a locked safe.

Eighth news item

Why the U.S. must continue to aid and support Ukraine in their battle against Russia:

When we spoke this week, she [Fiona Hill] made clear that the decision of whether Ukraine wins or loses is now on us — almost entirely. As Congress debates how much more money to authorize for Ukraine’s assistance amid growing Republican opposition, she says that what we are really debating is our own future. Do we want to live in the kind of world that will result if Ukraine loses?

Hill is clear about her answer. A world in which Putin chalks up a win in Ukraine is one where the U.S.’s standing in the world is diminished, where Iran and North Korea are emboldened, where China dominates the Indo-Pacific, where the Middle East becomes more unstable and where nuclear proliferation takes off, among allies as well as enemies.

“Ukraine has become a battlefield now for America and America’s own future — whether we see it or not — for our own defensive posture and preparedness, for our reputation and our leadership,” she told me. “For Putin, Ukraine is a proxy war against the United States, to remove the United States from the world stage.”

Ninth news item

Just horrible:

Three hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza were mistakenly killed by friendly fire, the Israeli military said in a statement Friday.

During combat operations in Shejaiya, a dense neighborhood in Gaza where fighting has been taking place, the Israeli military said troops mistakenly “identified three Israeli hostages as a threat.”

Troops fired at the three and they were killed, the IDF said. The Israeli military said the bodies have been returned to Israel and the identities of the three were confirmed.

A spokesman said that an investigation into how this happened is currently underway. Hamas fighters have been wearing civilian clothing and perhaps that played into it. They don’t know whether the hostages were intentionally exposed to IDF fighters along with the Hamas fighters, all in civilian clothing. He confirms that the three hostages were above ground and in close proximity to one of the IDF units in the area. One thing we know for sure is that Hamas will use anything and anybody to advance their mission goals.

Tenth news item

Plots for anti-Semitic attacks throughout Europe foiled by authorities:

Seven people have been arrested in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands on suspicion of planning terror attacks on Jewish institutions in Europe.

On Thursday, German officials said they had arrested four suspected Hamas members who were planning a terror attack against Jewish institutions in Berlin.

On the same day, Danish officials announced arrests related to separate terror offences.

German prosecutors said that three suspects detained in Berlin and another in the Netherlands were members of Hamas.

MISCELLANEOUS

On Sunday, Sen. Mitt Romney said he did not “see any evidence” that would justify impeaching Biden. “I think before you begin an impeachment inquiry, you ought to have some evidence, some inclination that there’s been wrongdoing,” Romney said on NBC’s Meet the Press.

Have a good weekend.

–Dana

546 Responses to “Weekend Open Thread”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (932d71)

  2. his just happened today (Friday).

    There are people in the Israeli army who just want to ignore all consideration of hostages.

    https://www.newser.com/story/343931/israel-we-mistakenly-killed-3-hostages.html

    …The Israeli Defense Forces said their soldiers fatally shot three men they mistook for terrorists in the Shejaiya neighborhood near Gaza City on Friday morning, reports the Washington Post. The hostages had either escaped captivity or “were abandoned by the terrorists who held them captive,” said an IDF spokesman, per the Times of Israel. He said the troops encountered them in a hostile area and opened fire.

    “After the shooting, during a scan and examination, an immediate suspicion arose regarding the identity of the dead, and their bodies were quickly transferred for examination in Israel, where the hostages were identified,” said Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari. Two were identified as Yotam Haim and Samer Talalka, both of whom were abducted on Oct. 7. The family of the third hostage asked that his identity not be revealed.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  3. @Dana

    MISCELLANEOUS

    On Sunday, Sen. Mitt Romney said he did not “see any evidence” that would justify impeaching Biden. “I think before you begin an impeachment inquiry, you ought to have some evidence, some inclination that there’s been wrongdoing,” Romney said on NBC’s Meet the Press.

    How do you square your past complaints that Ivanka getting sweetheart IP deal in China, her husband’s massive investments business with the Saudi or Foreign powers going to Trump properties during Trump presidency… and yet, seemingly belittle the GOP committee’s showing structuring, money from foreign powers into the Biden family’s coffers?

    whembly (5f7596)

  4. “Sen. Mitt Romney said he did not “see any evidence” that would justify impeaching Biden.”

    And whembly’s head explodes.

    Item #7: “The binder contained raw intelligence the US and its NATO allies collected on Russians and Russian agents, including sources and methods that informed the US government’s assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to help Trump win the 2016 election, sources tell CNN.”

    Curious to know if the custody trail actually leads back to the White House or not. For someone who wants us to stop supporting Ukraine and NATO. From Trump’s website: “We have to finish the process we began under my administration of fundamentally re-evaluating NATO’s purpose and NATO’s mission.”

    “There is great fear in Europe that a second Trump presidency would result in an actual pullout of the United States from NATO,” said James G. Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was NATO’s supreme allied commander from 2009 to 2013. “That would be an enormous strategic and historic failure on the part of our nation.”

    NEWS Today: Congress includes in Pentagon bill provision that requires super-majority support of Congress to officially leave NATO.

    Could Trump renege on Article 5 self defense? Could he start to redeploy US troops from the theater? Trump voters still believe it’s all bluster. Why exactly?
    https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nato-withdraw-congress-defense-bill-2023-12

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  5. @4

    “Sen. Mitt Romney said he did not “see any evidence” that would justify impeaching Biden.”

    And whembly’s head explodes.
    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 12/15/2023 @ 11:43 am

    …meet @3.

    😉

    whembly (5f7596)

  6. > A binder containing highly classified information related to Russian election interference went missing at the end of Donald Trump’s presidency,

    And the response from Trumpists to this will be to claim that the President has the absolute right to do whatever he wants with this kind of information and that anyone objecting is working for the deep state trying to impede the will of the people.

    The Republic is doomed.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  7. Date stamp or add “NEW” to the Open Threads, at least on the first 2 days of the newest thread.

    urbanleftbehind (b9b431)

  8. > How do you square your past complaints that Ivanka getting sweetheart IP deal in China, her husband’s massive investments business with the Saudi or Foreign powers going to Trump properties during Trump presidency… and yet, seemingly belittle the GOP committee’s showing structuring, money from foreign powers into the Biden family’s coffers?

    For me, by drawing the distinction that Ivanka and her husband were actively involved in the White House while Hunter isn’t, and so the situations aren’t comparable.

    And then by noting that the Republican party leadership didn’t give a rat’s a– about this sort of thing when it involved Trump family members, which suggests they don’t really care about this stuff, either. Or, worse, that they only care about it when Democrats do it, because the Dear Leader and his family should be allowed to do whatever they want.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  9. urbanleftbehind (b9b431) — 12/15/2023 @ 11:50 am

    Date stamp or add “NEW” to the Open Threads, at least on the first 2 days of the newest thread.

    There’s a number in the URL – this is number 205 with the same title – but you don’t see it in the sidebar.

    This could be Weekend Open Thread #205

    Nut I could tell one had sated because it said Dana.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  10. There are people in the Israeli army who just want to ignore all consideration of hostages.

    A position I support. Concern for the hostages causes the Israeli government to pull its punches attacking Hamas and imposes unnecessary risks to the IDF.

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  11. How do you square your past complaints that Ivanka getting sweetheart IP deal in China, her husband’s massive investments business with the Saudi or Foreign powers going to Trump properties during Trump presidency… and yet, seemingly belittle the GOP committee’s showing structuring, money from foreign powers into the Biden family’s coffers?

    whembly (5f7596) — 12/15/2023 @ 11:42 am

    Like H. Biden’s unseemly business dealings, what Trump’s children did was cash in on the family name. Not necessarily illegal, but certainly questionable. The difference is that the Kushners were never called before congressional committees to explain their business dealings. Why it is different for H. Biden is a question supporters of President Biden’s impeachment-because that is where the “inquiry” will end up. House Republicans aren’t going to announce that “oops, there’s nothing there, sorry for wasting your time.”

    Comer has own issues regarding shell companies, hiding his ownership in farmland with a donor.

    Glass houses, anyone?

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  12. ‘On Sunday, Sen. Mitt Romney said he did not “see any evidence” that would justify impeaching Biden. “I think before you begin an impeachment inquiry, you ought to have some evidence, some inclination that there’s been wrongdoing,” ‘

    A two year independent counsel comprised of Democrat partisans was unleashed on Trump with much less evidence than currently exists against Biden. Those complaining about an impeachment inquiry into Biden can claim some credibility by calling for an independent counsel. Of course, they won’t, because they have zero credibility.

    lloyd (26ca3d)

  13. On Sunday, Sen. Mitt Romney said he did not “see any evidence” that would justify impeaching Biden.…..

    Chuck Grassley agrees:

    ………..
    “I’m going to take the same position that I’ve taken since 2019 that all I can say is there’s some indication, maybe some compromise with China particularly, but I have no evidence of it,” Grassley told CNN’s Manu Raju on Wednesday.

    He continued, saying the facts “haven’t taken me to that point where I can say that the president’s guilty of anything.”
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  14. A two year independent counsel comprised of Democrat partisans was unleashed on Trump with much less evidence than currently exists against Biden.

    And it took Jack Smith about seven months to find enough evidence for two multi-felony indictments against former President Trump.

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  15. This is a nice tie-in to your First news item, on how a dysfunctional municipality can drive out business revenue:

    It appears that the Washington Capitals hockey team and Washington Wizards basketball team are going to move across the Potomac River to northern Virginia. Governor Glenn Youngkin announced, alongside owner Ted Leonsis, that the teams would be moving to a massive new sports complex and arena in Alexandria’s Potomac Yard neighborhood as soon as 2028.

    As a sports fan, I have no strong opinions about where those teams choose to play, although I agree that this is a serious blow to a downtown Washington D.C. that has many stretches looking increasingly shabby, empty, and run-down these days.

    The Caps and the Wiz both initially played in Landover, Maryland, before moving into a new arena within the Washington DC city limits around twenty years ago. The arena was last renovated four years ago, with $30 million going into creating new seating and upgrading the concession and dining options. Lenosis’s outfit, Monumental Sports & Entertainment, was pushing the city to invest in urban renewal projects such as upgraded streets and public transportation options for the surrounding neighborhood, just as they did when a new baseball park was built in 2008 and when a football stadium was built in Landover in 2004. But the difficult situation that the pandemic has left on the DC economy, which is heavily dependent upon bureaucrats and lobbyists utilizing office space, combined with rising public disorder and a dysfunctional DC city government, convinced Monumental to move the teams to Virginia.

    Virginia will need to throw some not-insignificant tax dollars into building this stadium, which is expected to open for the 2028-29 NBA and NHL seasons. I’ve argued in the past that a dual purpose basketball and hockey arena is not the ridiculous civil money pit that a giant football stadium is, so even though people like Jim Geraghty (author of the piece quoted above) are understandably dubious about the taxpayer obligation here, I think there is a compelling argument to be made that this is very likely be a net economic benefit to the state. Tough luck, DC, but it’s high-time you get your act together.

    JVW (d99193)

  16. “And it took Jack Smith about seven months to find enough evidence for two multi-felony indictments against former President Trump.”

    Red herring alert.

    lloyd (26ca3d)

  17. A position I support. Concern for the hostages causes the Israeli government to pull its punches attacking Hamas and imposes unnecessary risks to the IDF.

    There are many who believe that the reason Hamas has paused the hostage exchange negotiations is that their remaining hostages are mostly either already dead or have been subjected to such unspeakable brutality that the Palestinians don’t want word of it to get out. Apparently Israel is not even able to arrange to receive the bodies of the hostages that Hamas has confirmed have died in captivity, which suggests strongly that the Palestinians are hiding disgusting war crimes.

    JVW (046542)

  18. And it took Jack Smith about seven months to find enough evidence for two multi-felony indictments against former President Trump.

    Imagine having a prosecutor who is actually looking for evidence of crimes, rather than just trying to cut ridiculously favorable plea deals to the key players involved, or slow-walking the investigation so that the statute of limitations gets invoked on some of the malfeasance.

    Don’t any of you think for one moment that I am trying to exculpate any of the Trump Family for their malodorous actions, but the story of David Weiss’s original plea deal with Hunter Biden and the inability to charge him with pre-2016 tax evasion still strikes me as one of the most unexplored scandals in the history of the Presidency. Clearly there was somebody high up in the DC vanguard who was demanding that Hunter be treated with kid gloves, and it was probably so as to protect his corrupt and foolish papa.

    JVW (f8cd10)

  19. “Clearly there was somebody high up in the DC vanguard who was demanding that Hunter be treated with kid gloves, and it was probably so as to protect his corrupt and foolish papa.”

    DOJ Prosecutor Accused Of Protecting Joe And Hunter Biden Departs Her Post

    lloyd (26ca3d)

  20. @18

    Don’t any of you think for one moment that I am trying to exculpate any of the Trump Family for their malodorous actions, but the story of David Weiss’s original plea deal with Hunter Biden and the inability to charge him with pre-2016 tax evasion still strikes me as one of the most unexplored scandals in the history of the Presidency. Clearly there was somebody high up in the DC vanguard who was demanding that Hunter be treated with kid gloves, and it was probably so as to protect his corrupt and foolish papa.

    JVW (f8cd10) — 12/15/2023 @ 12:55 pm

    This… all of this.

    My issue is always the “…but Trump” argument when I’m pointing out misdeeds to the Bidens/Democrats.

    I see you.

    whembly (5f7596)

  21. @19

    DOJ Prosecutor Accused Of Protecting Joe And Hunter Biden Departs Her Post

    lloyd (26ca3d) — 12/15/2023 @ 1:03 pm

    That complicates any oversight by Congress.

    whembly (5f7596)

  22. An accusation completely lacking evidence.

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  23. East Carolina University (NC) Republican Primary Poll

    ………..
    In the North Carolina Republican presidential primary, former president Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite. When asked who they would vote for at this time, 63% percent answered Trump, followed by Nikki Haley (13%), Ron DeSantis (10%), Vivek Ramaswamy (3%), Chris Christie (2%), and Asa Hutchinson (1%). The remaining 8% are undecided.…….
    ………..
    ……… Dr. Peter Francia, Director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, remarked, “Although it is still early, Donald Trump is a near lock to win the Republican presidential primary election in North Carolina. ………
    …………

    Top lines. NC’s Republican primary (on Super Tuesday) will allocate its 74 delegates proportionally.

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  24. Sad!

    Rudy Giuliani must pay two Georgia poll workers who sued him for defamation $148 million after he falsely accused them of helping to steal the 2020 presidential election from Donald Trump.
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  25. @22

    An accusation completely lacking evidence.

    Rip Murdock (3526bb) — 12/15/2023 @ 1:13 pm

    So, the IRS whistleblower’s statements carries zero weight to you?

    Ok.

    whembly (5f7596)

  26. There is no evidence of biden’s criminal activity? Biden’s spokesperson KJP just gave congress evidence wednesday when she said president Biden talked to hunter about not testifying before congress. That is the crime of witness tampering.

    asset (91e652)

  27. In cave man days, if a tribal chief tampered with a witness, the tribe did not punish him. Half said “What mean tamper?”, and the other half said “Where AOC?”

    nk (bb1548)

  28. Ninth News Item:

    IDF bullets may have killed the hostages, but the responsibility for their deaths belong to Hamas.

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  29. whembly (5f7596) — 12/15/2023 @ 2:07 pm

    Remind me, did the whistleblowers attend DOJ meetings where decisions regarding prosecuting Hunter were made?

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  30. First news item:

    An alternative explanation is that the Giants (or any other team that wanted Ohtani) wouldn’t (or couldn’t) make the same deal the Dodgers made.

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  31. @29 Rip Murdock (3526bb) — 12/15/2023 @ 2:26 pm
    Rip, there are whistleblower testimony.

    Sorry it doesn’t fit your exacting standards and your attempts to protect the Bidens is noted.

    Good day sir.

    whembly (5f7596)

  32. Why did the NY GoP select a Democrat to replace George Santos?

    Not even trying to hide it anymore.

    NJRob (0218b2)

  33. Rip, there are whistleblower testimony.

    Sorry it doesn’t fit your exacting standards and your attempts to protect the Bidens is noted.

    My standards are those that would be admitted to a courtroom, not a committee hearing.

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  34. An alternative explanation is that the Giants (or any other team that wanted Ohtani) wouldn’t (or couldn’t) make the same deal the Dodgers made.

    Allegedly, the Giants matched the Dodgers’ offer to Ohtani.

    One thing that remains questionable about all of this is the Dodgers’ plan to only pay Ohtani $2 million per year in cash over the ten years of the contract, then start paying him the remaining $680 million starting in 2034 at a rate of $68 million per year for 10 years. Through various amortization moves, this means that Ohtani’s salary will only count as $46 million instead of $70 million against MLB’s Competitive Balance Tax, saving the Dodgers some money they can then apply to other salaries.

    One cynical school of thought is that the current team owners will look to sell the team in 2034 to some ridiculously deep-pocketed group who won’t blanche at the extra three-quarters of a billion in future obligations. The deferred salary scheme is apparently legal according to MLB’s rules, and it leads to some interesting results such as Max Scherzer being among the five highest paid players for three different teams this past season.

    JVW (7c88b6)

  35. Someone ought to mention to Orban that maybe they’d prefer Ukraine in the EU instead of Hungary. Have fun on your own.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  36. There is no evidence of biden’s criminal activity? Biden’s spokesperson KJP just gave congress evidence wednesday when she said president Biden talked to hunter about not testifying before congress. That is the crime of witness tampering.

    asset (91e652) — 12/15/2023 @ 2:10 pm

    The exact exchanges with Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre regarding Hunter Biden do not amount to admitting witness tampering by the President:

    …….. Q And amid everything else today, did he spend any time watching what his son had to say outside the Capitol?
    ……….
    Look, you know, the President was certainly familiar with what his son was going to say. And I think what you saw was from the heart from his son. And you’ve heard — you’ve heard me say this; you’ve heard the President say this: When it comes to the President and the First Lady, they are proud of him continuing to rebuild his life. They are proud of their son.
    ………..
    Q Thank you, though. Is the President okay with his son defying a congressional subpoena?

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE: I’m just not going to get into — into specifics on that. I would have to re- — would have to refer you to the President’s — not the President, but Hunter’s personal — personal representatives. He is a private citizen, so I’m just not going to get into it.

    Q Can you tell us when the last time the two of them spoke?

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE: I mean, I’m also not going to get into private conversation that the President has with his family. We’ve been pretty consistent. That’s nothing new. We’re just not going to get into it from here.
    ………..
    Q Thank you. Thanks, Karine. You said that President Biden was familiar with what his son was going to say on Capitol Hill. If I called my dad and said, “I am about to violate a congressional subpoena,” he would probably say, “Son, you shouldn’t do that.” Was there any attempt by President Biden to talk Hunter out of it today?
    ………
    MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Look, I don’t have anything else to add. The President was familiar with what Hunter was going to say today. And, you know — look, he’s proud of his son. He and the First Lady are proud of his son, how he’s rebuilding his life back. He’s going to focus on what is needed on the American people.

    Hunter — and I’ve said this many times — is a private citizen. And so, certainly, I would have to refer you to — to his representatives.

    I’m just not going to get into private conversations, because what you’re asking me is actually a private conversation. I’m just not going to get into it.

    Q Okay. The first briefing since Hunter was indicted again in Los Angeles. Why doesn’t President Biden just pardon him?

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE: The President — I’ve been very clear — the President is not going to pardon his son.
    …………

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  37. I dunno, I always thought the SF Giants had a hand tied behind their back in free agency because of reasons made clear by Eddie Murphy in his RAW stand-up show. When somewhat marginal players like Melky Cabrera have their own Melkmen cheering section, it can be oft putting.

    urbanleftbehind (b9b431)

  38. Why did the NY GoP select a Democrat to replace George Santos?

    Politico reported last week that Pilip is a registered Democrat, though she holds her current position as a Republican and has been backed by Republicans when she was running for county office. The arrangement is not entirely uncommon in states that have closed primaries, where so-called crossover voters who identify with one party register under another so they can vote in primary elections.

    https://apnews.com/article/santos-election-mazi-pilip-republicans-5552a4542b5a460a5105e7e2a3a629ae

    It’s New York, not rural Arizona.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  39. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic later reported that it was made clear to the Giants that exceeding the Dodgers offer would not have ultimately changed the decision.

    With Ohtani’s emphasis on landing at a destination where he could feasibly complete for a World Series, it makes perfect sense that he would opt to wear Dodger Blue instead of Orange and Black considering the presence of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. There’s also the fact that Ohtani had an extremely unique opportunity to change teams without having to relocate from one city to another, as he played for the Los Angeles Angels from 2017 to 2023. With the distance between San Francisco and Los Angeles being almost 400 miles, the geography could have been a legitimate factor as mentioned by Zaidi.

    From JVW’s link

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  40. JVW (7c88b6) — 12/15/2023 @ 3:59 pm

    According to most media reports the contract structure was Ohtani’s idea. It wasn’t a secret that Ohtani preferred Southern California. Why else would he spend 6 years with the sad sack Angels? He wanted to be on a contending team.

    With Dodgers finalizing a $135M/5-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow and pursuing Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, happy days are here again.

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  41. Posey’s comments are sour grapes.

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  42. More on Ohtani contract:

    ……….
    The massive deferrals were Ohtani’s idea, according to a person in the player’s camp. He proposed the unique structure when he was far into negotiations with the Dodgers, as a way to lessen their payroll obligation and allow the team to sign additional players around him.

    The deferrals will result in tax benefits for Ohtani himself, according to a person familiar with his negotiations. During the first 10 years, he will be subject to state income taxes on his annual $2 million salary in California and other states where the Dodgers play. But by the time he starts receiving the $68 million payments, he may be able to avoid state income taxes by living someplace like Florida without an income tax, or by moving back to Japan.
    ………..
    As things stand, when he suits up for the Dodgers on opening day of the 2024 season, Ohtani will be making less than Mets infielder Joey Wendle, Seattle reliever Andrés Muñoz and Twins’ pitcher Randy Dobnak, who was driving an Uber when Ohtani moved to Major League Baseball in 2018.

    In total, 210 MLB players will be making more than Ohtani’s $2 million base salary. So will some 400 NBA players, 752 NFL players and 87 players on the PGA Tour. Somehow Ken Griffey Jr., who retired in 2010, will earn more next season than baseball’s highest-paid player.

    Ohtani currently makes roughly $45 million per season in endorsement money, per a person familiar with his contracts.
    …………

    His contract is a mutually beneficial business decision, nothing more.

    Rip Murdock (3526bb)

  43. Obama’s map of the states. Can you name them all?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  44. A two year independent counsel comprised of Democrat partisans was unleashed on Trump with much less evidence than currently exists against Biden.

    It was a Special Counsel (the Independent Counsel expired after Ken Starr and Bill’s Monica Problem), and it yielded 37 indictments and nine convictions, which means there was lots of evidence.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  45. happy days are here again

    I bet they are looking carefully at their behavior with women first.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  46. A two year independent counsel comprised of Democrat partisans

    Poor Trump, what did he ever do to deserve that. And to think that they had that radical leftist Cheney fronting it, too.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  47. Kudos on the second news item, Dana. That is an uncommonly lengthy piece from The Economist. I’m only about one-third through it. It’s a deep dive into journalism and politics.

    James Bennet can see both sides of the political divide. I wish more people were like that.

    norcal (300848)

  48. It’s New York, not rural Arizona.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/15/2023 @ 4:15 pm

    BS. It’s Long Island which is conservative. Santos had a 100 ACU rating btw. This is more of the establishment GoP deciding conservatives are icky and how dare they want representation.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  49. I just want to say that I appreciate all of the commenters here, even the ones I disagree with. I’m convinced that all of us want what is best for the country. This is a small gathering of people, and I like it that way, because I’ve gained a sense of the people who comment.

    My mind has been changed on some issues by what I’ve read here.

    I wish all of you a joyous Christmas season.

    norcal (300848)

  50. Santos had a 100 ACU rating btw.

    I’d love to see the form he filled out. Probably claimed to have funded Ronald Reagan’s campaign. The truth is he had NO principles, not even the ones he had yesterday.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  51. BS. It’s Long Island which is conservative.

    For New York.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  52. @46 “Poor Trump, what did he ever do to deserve that. And to think that they had that radical leftist Cheney fronting it, too.”

    It was run by Weissman, and fronted by a senile token. And Cheney railed against it.

    lloyd (fe9b5a)

  53. Sorry, I get Trump’s scandals all confused. There’s so many.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  54. BS. It’s Long Island which is conservative. Santos had a 100 ACU rating btw. This is more of the establishment GoP deciding conservatives are icky and how dare they want representation.

    Biden carried that district by 8%, if I recall what I read today correctly. You might be thinking of Staten Island, which is Republican.

    nk (bb1548)

  55. @44 “it yielded 37 indictments and nine convictions, which means there was lots of evidence.”

    Zero indictments against Trump and zero evidence to trigger the investigation. None of the indictments had anything to do with Trump Russia collusion. As I said, zero credibility.

    lloyd (8dbee8)

  56. Zero indictments against Trump and zero evidence to trigger the investigation. None of the indictments had anything to do with Trump Russia collusion. As I said, zero credibility.

    Heh! There’s a backstory to that. Robert Mueller was appointed Independent Counsel by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein after Sessions recused himself. When Sessions first came in, he wanted to pick his own DAG, so he dismissed Rosenstein, but Trump reappointed him over Sessions’ head. Best move he ever made.

    nk (bb1548)

  57. Between 1992 and 2020 the NY-03 the only time it voted Republican in a presidential election was 2004; probably because it includes sections of Queens.

    It is a true “silk stocking” district, with a median income just under $130k. It is the wealthiest district in NY, and 4th wealthiest in the US.

    Rip Murdock (8455d0)

  58. Disregard the election data in post 58; however Biden did defeat Trump in 2020 54-45.

    Rip Murdock (8455d0)

  59. “According to the report, Russia was impressed by Orban’s actions.”

    Russia is probably more impressed that we have a president who will halt Ukraine aid in order to keep open borders.

    As for Orban, let’s not believe the hype. As a member state, Hungary is entitled to billions from the EU. The EU has held these funds back because some of Hungary’s laws aren’t aligned with EU woke standards. Yet, Hungary is expected to approve sending billions to a non member state instead, and we’re surprised when Orban doesn’t go along. That’s the reality, but EU Good Hungary Bad makes for a much more palatable story.

    lloyd (8dbee8)

  60. https://nypost.com/2023/12/13/real-estate/mortgage-payments-on-a-new-home-have-risen-90-under-biden/

    The dream of owning a home in America is slipping farther away for many, with average monthly mortgage payments now nearly double what they were at the start of the Biden administration.
    As interest rates surge above 7% and housing prices continue their ascent, aspiring buyers are confronted with one of the most unaffordable markets in recent memory.

    Recent analysis indicates that opting to rent might make more financial sense, with average new leases ringing in at $1,000 less per month than the cost of home loans.

    The landscape is bleak, prompting experts to advise potential buyers against waiting for a market shift and instead bracing for an extended period of higher interest rates.

    Data from real estate investment firm CBRE illustrates a stark reality: average monthly payments on a new home soared to $3,322 in the third quarter of this year, marking a staggering 90% increase since late 2020 when it hovered at just $1,746 before Biden took office.

    This analysis, centered on a $430,000 home with a 30-year mortgage, considering a 10% down payment, underscores the gravity of the situation.

    Who cares about the next generation? Not Biden voters.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  61. The current registration in the N.Y.-03 (George Santos former) congressional district is 52/48 Democratic with 1% other minor parties. Hardly a conservative bastion.

    Rip Murdock (c694e1)

  62. @28 No hamas released hostages. Idf clearly is avoiding taking prisoners so they don’t so many to guard. Palestinian good samaritan who helped save Israelis from terrorist attack gun down with his hands in the air upset Israeli witnesses report. Hostage families say netanyahu is taking revenge on family critiques 4 other hostages killed earlier IDF wont say if friendly fire also.

    asset (a70bcf)

  63. @49 rural az is represented by nazis crane, biggs, lesko, gosar and non nazi crook schweikert.

    asset (a70bcf)

  64. @36 “Familiar with what his son was going to say” KJP She realized she just hung the president out to dry and saying I am not going to say anymore is too late. KJP and Bidens need to be investigated and their testimony taken on witness tampering. Did he tell hunter I will pardon you when I leave office. What KJP says about pardon means squat.

    asset (a70bcf)

  65. Zero indictments against Trump and zero evidence to trigger the investigation. None of the indictments had anything to do with Trump Russia collusion. As I said, zero credibility.

    One, of course there were zero indictments against Trump. DOJ policy since Nixon is that sitting presidents are not to be indicted.

    Two, the Mueller and Senate Intelligence Committee reports found evidence of a conspiracy between Trump people and Putin people to help Trump win, but not enough to indict. That’s simply what happened, so I reject your unfounded opinion about their credibility.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  66. @66 found what evidence of conspiracy to do what and where and how for trump to win? Every time I asked liberal sites this I got banned. what votes were changed in this conspiracy in mich. penn. and wisc. where the election was decided for trump. How about N.C. fla. buehler? anyone? Was putin going to send in his marines like we did in the dominican republic? Send in the C.I.A. like we did in russia to help yeltnson win or chile to get rid of allende. Iran to get rid of mosadek congo to get rid of lumumba? Help Batista in cuba, somoza in nicuragua or the blow torch in el salvador to help murder maryknoll nuns. Obama at least tried to get rid of the bottle depost crook netenyahu. Oh thats right he placed a few facebook ads knowbody saw. Wikileaks was a public service to show what a corrupt crook clinton was!

    asset (a70bcf)

  67. Like the Pao Ka-ching says, you can no your enema if you yes your fiber.

    Yes, in regard to Ukraine, Hungary is bad and EU is good. Those capital “G” Gypsies are playing both sides, and they should be sidelined by both the EU and NATO. They don’t belong to the West, they’re just a drag on it.

    nk (bb1548)

  68. Liam Neeson plays an Old Testament Santa to perfection.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  69. Just a reminder that the Houthis firing these drones in the Red Sea are backed by the Iranian regime, just like Hamas and Hezbollah and Assad and Putin are backed by the Iranian regime.

    Biden needs to be bold and put together a serious response.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  70. Biden needs to be bold and put together a serious response.

    He’s busy.

    BuDuh (68df71)

  71. Disregard the election data in post 58; however Biden did defeat Trump in 2020 54-45.

    Yeah, districts have short lifespans, usually not past the last census.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  72. Foreign car immigrant district, NY-3 appears to be, not the more earthy parts of LI like Ronkonkama (sp?). Could they just ask a solid of Lee Zeldin rather than round 2 of demographic Bingo?

    urbanleftbehind (b9b431)

  73. The dream of owning a home in America is slipping farther away for many, with average monthly mortgage payments now nearly double what they were at the start of the Biden administration.

    This has as much to do with the PRICES of homes as to the interest rates. The mortgage on a 30-year loan at 7% is 50% higher than at 3%, given the same loan amounts. To double going from 3% to 7%, you would have to increase the loan amount by 30% as well.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  74. *mortgage PAYMENT on a 30-year loan

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  75. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/16/2023 @ 10:44 am

    The election data regarding when the last time Republicans won was for winning New York statewide.

    Rip Murdock (c694e1)

  76. After the George Santos disaster, the NY-03 district will be an easy Dem pickup for the next few years.

    Rip Murdock (b16a33)

  77. You would think a senator who had a staffer defile the Capitol Building by filming hardcore gay porn in it would not get the luxury of saying “no further comment,” but this is a Democrat we are talking about so the normal rules don’t apply.

    The crazies are calling this an “insurectum.”

    BuDuh (68df71)

  78. A Democrat, doing Democrat things

    Senate staffer who allegedly filmed public sex in Congress ousted from Ben Cardin’s office

    This is the same staffer who yelled Free Palestine! at a Jewish congressman.

    Not surprisingly, he was also was featured in a Biden campaign video.

    lloyd (b2bbf9)

  79. The election data regarding when the last time Republicans won was for winning New York statewide.

    Kerry stomped W in NY statewide. That Wikipedia table is nonsense.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  80. After the George Santos disaster, the NY-03 district will be an easy Dem pickup for the next few years.

    The candidate they picked is pretty compelling.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  81. The GOP, that is.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  82. After he fails to meet expectations in IA and NH, Trump will complain that the GOP debates had been rigged to exclude him.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  83. The candidate they picked is pretty compelling.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/16/2023 @ 11:22 am

    In what way?

    Rip Murdock (b16a33)

  84. And don’t say “life story”, I could care less of any hardships she went through. A tough life doesn’t qualify anyone for elected office (unless you’re a Democrat……oh wait.)

    Rip Murdock (b16a33)

  85. A Black Jewish Immigrant Republican and an IDF veteran, who’s also good looking.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  86. What matter is not what you want, but what her district wants.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  87. Her opponent is attacking her as MAGA, of all things.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  88. A tough life doesn’t qualify anyone for elected office

    I disagree. Having serious life experience is far more interesting than being born on third base.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  89. It’s informative that Hannity sees Chris Christie as more objectionable than Vivek Ramaswamy, and probably why Nikki doesn’t want to debate DeSantis on his show.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  90. A Black Jewish Immigrant Republican and an IDF veteran, who’s also good looking.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/16/2023 @ 11:32 am

    Checking boxes is identity politics.

    Rip Murdock (b16a33)

  91. It’s informative that Hannity sees Chris Christie as more objectionable than Vivek Ramaswamy…….

    Why is that surprising? Hannity probably agrees more with Ramaswamy’s politics than Christie; and Hannity has been in the tank for Trump forever.

    Rip Murdock (b16a33)

  92. What matter is not what you want, but what her district wants.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/16/2023 @ 11:33 am

    She’ll be elected if the voters just as superficial.

    Rip Murdock (b16a33)

  93. Expensive:

    The two month race to represent the New York House district once held by the ousted Republican Rep. George Santos is expected to cost up to $20 million, according to political strategists.
    …………
    The New York district, which spans from parts of Queens and through a portion of Long Island, is among 15 Republican held districts The Cook Political Report says are toss-ups. Republicans only have an eight seat majority in the House and, for that reason, voters should expect a massive amount of spending in the district as both parties fight for control of Congress, according to the strategists.

    Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic strategist, said the (Tom Suozzi, who previously represented the district from 2017 until 2023) and (Mazi) Pilip campaigns will likely each spend anywhere from $7 to $10 million in next two months. That money, which does not include spending by outside groups, would go to get out the vote efforts, including television and digital advertising campaigns.
    ………….
    The two candidates vying to represent the influential New York district will likely see the help of business leaders, who have had previous allegiances with the contenders.
    …………

    Rip Murdock (b16a33)

  94. Checking boxes is identity politics.

    Welcome to the 21st Century. It matters though, which boxes you check. Which boxes does Donald Trump check? Liar, fool, jerk, rich man’s git, and soon felon.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  95. She’ll be elected if the voters just as superficial.

    All voters are superficial. How did Summer Burke get elected in CA?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  96. Tom Suozzi, who LOST to George Santos! Fine choice, Dems.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  97. Of course, GOP strategists are often like this.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  98. The 3 hostages were carrying a white flag surrendering and were murdered because netanyahu’s government doesn’t want to spend money and resources guarding captured prisoners. 4 other hostages “found dead” Netanyahu’s government says no comment on how they died and who killed them. In other news republicans in ohio arrest black woman who had miscarriage showing the perils of getting pregnant in red states.

    asset (be4f8f)

  99. @99 santos defeated corporate establishment stooge robert zimmermen not suozzi. Get your corporate establishment stooges right!

    asset (be4f8f)

  100. @95 I read hank sheinkopf could you please tell me where I can read what he said. thanks.

    asset (be4f8f)

  101. Checking boxes is identity politics.

    Welcome to the 21st Century. It matters though, which boxes you check. Which boxes does Donald Trump check? Liar, fool, jerk, rich man’s git, and soon felon.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/16/2023 @ 1:42 pm

    1. I guess by using identity politics as the criteria to pick their nominee, the Nassau County GOP are no different than Democrats.

    2. Trump self-selected himself as a presidential candidate. and at least voters have a choice between him and multiple candidates. He was definitely not picked by the Republican establishment in 2016 (or 2024).

    Rip Murdock (b16a33)

  102. @95 I read hank sheinkopf could you please tell me where I can read what he said. thanks.

    asset (be4f8f) — 12/16/2023 @ 2:00 pm

    Click the link.

    Rip Murdock (b16a33)

  103. 1. I guess by using identity politics as the criteria to pick their nominee, the Nassau County GOP are no different than Democrats.

    It makes sense as Mazi Melesa Pilip is a registered Democrat.

    Rip Murdock (b16a33)

  104. Special election. The top people already have jobs.

    nk (bb1548)

  105. Tom Suozzi, who LOST to George Santos! Fine choice, Dems.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/16/2023 @ 1:44 pm

    That’s disingenuous. None of what’s now known about Santos’s perfidy was known before the election.

    Rip Murdock (b16a33)

  106. a href=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/12/16/confederate-memorial-arlington-cemetery/#”>Confederate Memorial at Arlington will be removed despite GOP opposition
    ……….
    A woman representing the American South, standing atop a 32-foot pedestal, lords above most other monuments within America’s most revered resting place. It portrays, according to the cemetery’s website, a “mythologized vision of the Confederacy, including highly sanitized depictions of slavery.”

    This month, 44 Republican lawmakers cautioned Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the first African American to hold the post, that the Pentagon would overstep its authority by removing the memorial, and they demanded that all efforts to do so stop until Congress works through next year’s appropriations bill. The memorial “commemorates reconciliation and national unity,” not the Confederacy per se, the group led by Rep. Andrew S. Clyde (Ga.) claimed.

    The Army, which operates Arlington Cemetery, informed lawmakers Friday that it would proceed with the monument’s removal, officials told The Washington Post, because it was required by the end of the year to comply with a law to identify and remove assets that commemorate the Confederacy. A congressional commission had previously decided the memorial met the criteria for removal. The task will cost $3 million.
    ……….
    Workers will remove the memorial’s bronze elements and leave its granite base in place to avoid damaging nearby gravesites……….
    ……….
    Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) ……….plans to relocate it New Market Battlefield State Park……….
    …………
    The Lost Cause movement, which recast rebel traitors as morally righteous warriors defending states’ rights and spread the false belief that slavery was benevolent, is evident in the memorial’s bronze panels. A weeping Black woman, described by cemetery historians as a stereotypical “mammy,” clutches the baby of a White officer, and a camp servant dutifully follows his enslaver toward battle.
    ………….
    …………. While Republican lawmakers described the marker as an ode to reconciliation, it was installed (in 1914) in what was then a racially segregated cemetery and molded in celebration of an emerging racial police state in the South.
    ………..
    ……….. A lawsuit in federal court against the U.S. military alleged that the decision to bring it down was made without sufficient public input. That suit was dismissed Tuesday, according to court filings. The Army said it did not anticipate another legal challenge before work begins next week.
    …………..

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  107. Link to article in post 108.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  108. Houthis launch more attacks in Red Sea as US warships head to region

    What’s the point of sending more ships. We have two aircraft carriers there already, along with a couple of littoral assault ships. That should be enough to destroy Houthi forces, if not Houthi society.

    Does Biden really need more forces to bluff with?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  109. Fighting a two or three front war?

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  110. Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis and providing air defense to Israel?

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  111. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/16/2023 @ 5:47 pm

    Given the type of ships being deployed (Arleigh Burke-class destroyers) they are for additional air defense around the carrier battle groups.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  112. There are people in the Israeli army who just want to ignore all consideration of hostages.

    That’s not as heartless as it sounds. In this kind of house-to-house “urban jungle” warfare, it will save Israeli soldiers’ lives if they do not need to hesitate and assess before responding to a possible threat. And it’s needless to say that the Palestinians have no hesitation in using both hostages and their own civilians as decoys and human shields.

    nk (985e77)

  113. What happened was this: Three men came out of a tunnel or with one carrying a makeshift white flag (as civilians do in Hamas controlled areas) and no shirts (to avoid suspicion of carrying weapons or maybe a suicide belt, The Israeli soldiers shot at them, killing two instantly, and the third began running away, shouting in Hebrew. He was fired at some more and killed. Then they discovered that they were hostages. The IDF says that the soldiers violated the rules of engagement (at what point, if they said, it didn’t make it into the news.)

    Only higher rsnkng Hamas commanders speak Hebrew (most likely because they spent some time in Israeli jails and were released in the 2011 prisoner exchange of over 1,000 people for Gilad Shalit.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  114. I believe it was last week when I saw Lindsey Graham on CNN. He was asked whether all of the Palestinian civilian deaths will create more antipathy and more Hamas terrorists. His answer somewhat surprised me. He in essence argued that Palestinian society was already radicalized….from an early age.

    Now it begged for a followup question of what exactly should limit the number of Palestinians being killed? I suppose a civilian vs. combatant distinction is there but if Graham is right, he is toying with rationalizing the idea of genocide. If they are all budding terrorists, shouldn’t all the terrorists be killed to protect Israelis?

    I won’t pretend to know the right answer, how many Palestinians must die, and how coexistence emerges from any of this? I would like to think that there are some Palestinians who did not applaud the savagery of Oct 7 and do not want terrorists ripping apart their society to feed their hate.

    AJ_Liberty (c39dd4)

  115. Fighting a two or three front war?

    We’re not fight a war now, although Iran is fighting one with us. What are you concerned about anyway? NOT responding forcefully to these attacks will just get us more of them.

    If the US Navy cannot keep the Suez Canal sea lanes open, what good is it?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  116. Given the type of ships being deployed (Arleigh Burke-class destroyers) they are for additional air defense around the carrier battle groups.

    We can defend those ships just fine back in Norfolk. Which is about Biden’s speed. Cheese-eating surrender monkey.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  117. I won’t pretend to know the right answer, how many Palestinians must die, and how coexistence emerges from any of this? I would like to think that there are some Palestinians who did not applaud the savagery of Oct 7 and do not want terrorists ripping apart their society to feed their hate.

    I would think that there are quite a few Palestinians that don’t want Israel this pissed off ever again. Certainly the “afterwards” thing needs careful consideration. It won’t get it, but it does need it.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  118. Now it begged for a followup question of what exactly should limit the number of Palestinians being killed? I suppose a civilian vs. combatant distinction is there but if Graham is right, he is toying with rationalizing the idea of genocide. If they are all budding terrorists, shouldn’t all the terrorists be killed to protect Israelis?

    AJ_Liberty (c39dd4) — 12/16/2023 @ 7:59 pm

    That conflates the question Graham answered, i.e., whether Israel would win Gazan hearts and minds by avoiding indiscriminate killings, with whether such killings would be moral or legal. The survey data, 75% Gazan support for the 10/7 atrocities, suggests Graham is correct, or at worst that the number of persuadable Gazans is marginal. But being a Jew-hating terrorist sympathizer doesn’t deprive non-combatants of their legally protected status under humanitarian international law. Nor, I’d argue, should it remove their moral right not to be killed indiscriminately. In short, allowing myself to kill anyone who’d like to see me dead is wrong, illegal, and it doesn’t end well.

    (Not that I’m convinced Israel has killed indiscriminately. The only non-ipse dixit support for that argument that I’ve seen is the large numbers of deaths, which is only one data point in a complicated fact-intensive, mixed-objective-subjective fault analysis. Anyone who purports certainty that Israel has committed war crimes who hasn’t seen Israel’s intelligence and its war plan is demagoging.)

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  119. @120 Ask the 3 dead hostages and probably 4 more dead hostages that Israel refuses to say what happened families if Israel kills indiscriminately. The evil netanyahu is pooping in his pants over this as the details of three murdered hostages comes out costing him the propaganda war showing IDF soldiers kill indiscriminately too! As the war drags both sides violence will make morality a cruel joke. As someone who knows Hamas must be destroyed their evil religion shown for what it is. Israel must get this war over with time is not on their side as they wrongly believe it is. The Israeli people are marching in the street calling for netanyahu’s head! He is gone as soon as the war ends.

    asset (a59e08)

  120. @120: I suppose, like the Hamas reported civilian deaths, I’m a little skeptical of how enthusiastic civilian Palestinians are about Hamas. Like the Russians collecting Ukraine ballots in occupied regions, are we really getting the sense of the Gazans about their “leaders”?

    Do they want Hamas running things in Gaza? Do they agree with Hamas tactics? Has Hamas made things better or worse? With Hamas fighters squatting in your kitchen, how free will civilians be to answer those questions? Is the support unequivocal or is it grudging? Radicalized suggests unequivocal and that the cause might even justify the civilian deaths. I’m skeptical of that conclusion. I bet many Palestinians would not trade their loved ones for whatever October 7 accomplished…and would not trade their children for future October 7th’s.

    Is Israel acting indiscriminate? It’s certainly hard to prove, though seeing women and children being dug out of debris of collapsed buildings does show something. The civilian’s lives are disposable to a degree. We don’t fully understand the cost benefit analysis. How high-valued of a target are at play and of what number? But how many children are worth those targets and how many times is the intelligence wrong or incorrectly determines the raw benefit?

    Many will say, what about Dresden or Hiroshima, but this is different. In a way it’s shooting fish in a barrel. As an onlooker, it’s tough to know how much slaughter is appropriate. Has Hamas been “reduced” by 10%, 20%, or more? Is the goal 100% or will 80% be enough to move to the next phase? What exactly is the next phase?

    It’s surprisingly easy to root on slaughter. I just wonder if in the end, it’s the moral thing to do?

    AJ_Liberty (c39dd4)

  121. This is my party’s frontrunner and likely nominee for GOP Standard Bearer, evoking emanations of Hitler…

    “They are poisoning the blood of our country. That’s what they have done. They poisoned mental institutions and prisons all over the world. Not just in South America, not just the three or four countries that we think about, but all over the world they’re coming into our country from Africa, from Asia, all over the world. They’re pouring into our country. Nobody’s even looking at them. They just come in. The crime is going to be tremendous. The terrorism is going to be…And and we built a tremendous piece of the wall and then we’re going to build more.”

    This isn’t the first time Trump has used this rhetoric. To my knowledge, South Americans and Africans and Asians are predominantly brown-skinned. Is he talking just about the southern border and just about illegal immigrants? To me, hard to tell, because it’s not like he didn’t talk about sheethole countries when he was president.

    Is the problem because his supporters are unpersuadable to another candidate? Maybe. French asked that question on the subject of Ukraine (generous cut-and-paste alert):

    One of the most interesting explorations of the art of persuasion comes from New York University’s Jonathan Haidt, who several years ago described the process of persuasion as well as anyone I know. In his book “The Happiness Hypothesis: Finding Modern Truth in Ancient Wisdom,” he compares people’s relation to their emotions to a “rider on the back of an elephant.”

    The rider is our rational mind. It’s the part of our brain that deals with facts and reason. It acknowledges, for example, that two plus two equals four, the sky is blue and the Southeastern Conference is the greatest college football conference in the history of the universe.

    The elephant is basically everything else about us. As Haidt later explained in an excellent podcast discussion, the elephant represents “99 percent of what’s going on in your mind that you’re not aware of.” By controlling our emotional and social aspects, the elephant controls us far more than we might like; we are, after all, only riders. If the elephant doesn’t want to move, it won’t move. But if the elephant wants to move, as Haidt said on the podcast, “then it is effortless to persuade the rider to go along.” Thus the best way to persuade the elephant and rider to change course is to “reach the elephant first.”

    Note that Haidt said, reach the elephant first, not reach the elephant only. Speak to the heart alone, and you may be manipulating more than explaining. To truly persuade a person, you reach heart and mind, elephant and rider, and convince them to move as one.

    What does this have to do with aid to Ukraine? President Volodymyr Zelensky was in the United States this week to make a pitch for American aid. Republican support for Ukraine is in decline, and party leaders are so far refusing to vote for aid unless the Democrats agree to Republican demands on border security. While I support a reasonable compromise that funds Ukraine and provides additional border security, there is increasing evidence that many Republicans are simply turning against Ukraine, in both mind and heart. In some G.O.P. circles, there is now outright contempt for the Ukrainian cause.

    On Monday, Senator J.D. Vance told reporters, “The idea of flying this guy at the last minute and effectively to badger and guilt-trip us, I just find grotesque.” Later that same day, he said on a podcast hosted by the former Donald Trump chief strategist Steve Bannon, “There are people who would cut Social Security, throw our grandparents into poverty. Why? So that one of Zelensky’s ministers can buy a bigger yacht?”
    […]
    While the visceral Republican disdain requires a visceral response, that response should not be to answer contempt with contempt. Nor should it rely exclusively on reaching the elephant. It should endeavor to unify head and heart in a way that is both factually and morally true. At best, our arguments for supporting Ukraine should inspire hope and resolve, not merely trigger fear or rage.

    As many readers know, I live outside Nashville, in the heart of MAGA country, and I encounter opponents of Ukrainian aid all the time. I want to share how I try to make the case to their heads and hearts alike.

    This week, I was at a lunch meeting with some academic colleagues discussing the grim state of politics and the world. One of the people at the table asked if there was anything that truly gives me hope. I thought for a minute, and I said, “Ukraine gives me hope.” That’s because in the terrible darkness of that war of aggression, we’ve seen the best of liberal democracy and the best of America. I told them a story that I’ve told readers before, of the early morning hours of May 16, when I was in Kyiv for meetings with Ukrainian officials and Russia launched a barrage of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles at the Ukrainian capital.

    The Kinzhal is Russia’s superweapon. Russia’s defense minister had said they were “impossible” to intercept. From my hotel, I watched American-made Patriot missiles take off, one by one, into the sky toward them. Thanks to the efforts of my colleagues in Opinion Audio, you can hear the sound of the actual attack in an audio short I recorded after I returned home.

    The Russian superweapon turned out to be not that super after all. The Patriot missiles achieved the “impossible” and shot down Kinzhal after Kinzhal. It was an incredible moment to witness, a testament to American ingenuity, industry and fidelity. We are still the arsenal of democracy.

    But the story of Ukraine isn’t primarily an American story, as indispensable as we may be. There was something else that I saw: the immense resilience of the Ukrainian people. These men and women were not acting like America’s more disappointing allies, such as the Iraqi or Afghan forces who squandered so much American largess.

    The most enduring images of my visit weren’t the explosions high in the night sky, but watching the courage and perseverance of a nation under fire. On the final night, as we approached the train station, I saw the lights of a line of ambulances. Inside those ambulances were Ukrainian casualties, the soldiers who were fighting the brutal forces of a Russian autocrat.

    The moral clarity of the moment was blinding. Ukraine is no threat to Russia. It has no capacity to threaten Russian sovereignty. Its only sin was resisting Russian domination, and when Russia could no longer dominate the nation through its chosen puppets, it chose to do so directly, through a brutal attack that recalled the worst wars of the European past.

    But the moral clarity goes even deeper than the bare fact of who attacked whom. The fight between Russia and Ukraine isn’t just a fight between nations, but rather a fight between political systems and philosophies. Ever since the advent of liberal democracies, autocrats have believed them to be weak, too soft to prevail in a world that is so often red in tooth and claw.
    […]
    But here we are. Just as Napoleon improperly dismissed Britain as a “nation of shopkeepers” and Germany twice questioned American resolve, so did the Russians underestimate the power of a free people. An autocrat decided to test the West, and he has paid the price in blood and treasure. Estimates of Russian losses are staggering. Roughly 315,000 troops have been killed or injured. To put that number in perspective, the entire prewar army consisted of only 360,000 men and women. It has lost 2,200 of its prewar stock of 3,500 tanks. A declassified American intelligence assessment claims that “the war in Ukraine has sharply set back 15 years of Russian effort to modernize its ground force.”

    Under the cold calculus of war, aid to Ukraine is one of the most cost-effective military initiatives in modern American history. At a cost equal to a small fraction of the American defense budget — in 2022, the U.S. spent $812 billion on national defense; since the war began, we have given $75 billion in aid to Ukraine — the Ukrainian military has set back Russian offensive capabilities for years or more. And this has been accomplished without the loss of life of a single member of the American military.

    But autocrats are wrong until they’re not. It is not inevitable that democracies beat autocracies. In 2021 we watched as the Taliban entered Kabul with a terrible triumphant glee. With all of our strength and power, we can still choose to lose a war. Every generation has to define the limits of its courage and sacrifice. And all too many Republicans seem to believe we’ve had enough, even when the sacrifice is so small.

    And the sacrifice is small, because we’re mostly sending weapons that we need to replace anyway, and no American blood is being spilt. It’s not only a small sacrifice to see Putin’s army get trashed on the Ukrainian, the moral calculus is kindergarten simple.

    But instead of offering moral clarity, or demanding that Putin end his criminal invasion, or condemning the Russian autocrat for his thousands of war crimes and terrorist attacks, or calling out Russian abductions of thousands Ukrainian children into Russia, my party’s frontrunner makes it about himself and gushes over the imperialist terrorist and international war criminal.

    Trump quoted Putin, the dictatorial Russia president who invaded neighboring Ukraine, criticizing the criminal charges against Trump, who is accused in four separate cases of falsifying business records in a hush money scheme, mishandling classified documents, and trying to overturn the 2020 election results. In the quotation, Putin agreed with Trump’s own attempts to portray the prosecutions as politically motivated.

    “It shows the rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach others about democracy,” Trump quoted Putin saying in the speech. Trump added: “They’re all laughing at us.”

    SMDH

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  122. Winning hearts and minds. Radicalized.

    You don’t need their hearts and minds. All you need is a Hamas informer to say that he saw someone talking to Israeli soldiers and then for Hamas gunmen to show up and kill that someone. And his sons.

    Radicalized. How radicalized does a homeowner need to be to prepare a meal for a small group of Hamas fighters and to let them rest for a while in his house?

    The ways of insurgency are comprehensive and complex, They go far beyond “a guerilla must move among among the people as a fish swims in the sea”. The Soviets founded a university to teach it. It still exists. The Patrice Lumumba Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia.

    nk (985e77)

  123. 2½-mile long peaceful tunnel in Gaza discovered, used to transport baby milk.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  124. …trashed on the Ukrainian steppe

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  125. Given the type of ships being deployed (Arleigh Burke-class destroyers) they are for additional air defense around the carrier battle groups.

    We can defend those ships just fine back in Norfolk. …….

    Short of using nuclear weapons, I’m not sure how you would be able to shoot down a drone or missile from Norfolk. The Suez Canal is still operational.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  126. The Suez Canal is still operational.

    But Maersk and other shipping lines have decided that the Red Sea lanes are too dangerous and are rerouting around South Africa. That is such an enormous expense that it shows the utter failure of Biden’s approach.

    If all we need to do is protect our own ships, we don’t need to put them in harm’s way (i.e. back at Norfolk). IF we intend to keep the sea lanes open, we should actually DO THAT.

    Do you think that Iran is going to risk a war with the US — one the mullahs would lose — because we destroyed the ability of Houthis to launch attacks?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  127. Oops ……….

    ………..
    …………….By announcing his resignation so close to the filing deadline (Dec. 28), (Rep. Kevin) McCarthy set off a chaotic domino effect that leaves him potentially without a well-positioned chosen successor.

    (Republican State Assemblyman Vince Fong), who was once McCarthy’s district director, initially ruled out running to succeed his political mentor, saying he would seek reelection to the state Assembly instead. He reversed course after the expected frontrunner, state Sen. Shannon Grove, announced her surprise decision to pass on the race.

    But Fong had already qualified to run for Assembly, and state law bars a candidate from withdrawing after (the Dec. 8th) filing deadline. He decided to forge ahead, regardless, filing his candidacy with Kern County election officials, and McCarthy swiftly endorsed him. One of his competitors, far-right conservative David Giglio, threatened to sue if Fong remained on the ballot.

    After a week of uncertainty, the office of Secretary of State Shirley Weber confirmed that California election law prohibits Fong from running for Congress.
    ………..
    ……….. The campaign said it planned to challenge the decision in court.
    …………..

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  128. Do you think that Iran is going to risk a war with the US — one the mullahs would lose — because we destroyed the ability of Houthis to launch attacks?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/17/2023 @ 8:44 am

    If we killed a few dozen Iranian advisers, I think they would launch direct and indirect attacks against the West. How deep do Americans want to get involved in the Israeli-Gaza War? Not many, I’m sure. Let the Saudis take of it. They’re right next door.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  129. I think they would launch direct and indirect attacks against the West.

    They are doing that now.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  130. Secretary of State Shirley Weber confirmed that California election law prohibits Fong from running for Congress

    Not politics, surly, just the law. She’d do the same thing if it was a Democrat seat in jeopardy.

    /sarc, and DO call her shirley.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  131. Let the Saudis take of it. They’re right next door.

    MAGA could not have put it better.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  132. McCarthy should change his name to McTwerp.

    nk (985e77)

  133. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/17/2023 @ 9:11 am

    Font’s problem is that he couldn’t make up his mind.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  134. Font=Fong

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  135. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/17/2023 @ 9:11 am

    California law is pretty clear:

    8003.
    This chapter does not prohibit the independent nomination of candidates under Part 2 (commencing with Section 8300), subject to the following limitations:
    ………..
    (b) No person may file nomination papers for a party nomination and an independent nomination for the same office, or for more than one office at the same election

    Fong is an idiot.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  136. Rip must have missed this news, so I figure I would brighten his day:

    “A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found that 29% of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire would vote for Haley, while 44% said they’re backing Trump. It’s the latest good news for Haley out of the Granite State, where she recently received a coveted endorsement from Gov. Chris Sununu, who has pledged to put “110 percent” behind the former South Carolina governor in the run-up to the state’s Jan. 23 primary. New Hampshire voters who were surveyed also view Haley as the most “likable” and “reasonable” candidate in the primary race, and 53% percent describe her as “prepared,” compared to 54% for Trump.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/17/cbs-poll-haley-closing-gap-new-hampshire-00132173

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  137. Tom Suozzi, who LOST to George Santos! Fine choice, Dems.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/16/2023 @ 1:44 pm

    Of course, he didn’t lose to George Santos. George Santos lost to him, the first time Santos ran, in 2020, Tom Suozzi ran for Governor and he lost inthe primary to Kathy Hochul.

    In New York State, as in most places, a person cannot run for two different elective offices on the same day Near exceptions include running on a presidential ticket and for some other office (in some states) or running for offices that, though they get elected in the same general election, have primaries on separate dates, as New York had for a while, with Congress and state offices for a few years. And you often can’t even hold two different offices at the same time, except in New Jersey.

    Sowhen Suozzi decided to run for Governor in 2022, he had to give up his House seat. Another person was the Democratic nominee,

    This is for the seat using the 2022 lines – Democrats may gerrymander a little ora lot, and even if a lot hope to get their new lines used for 2024 on grounds it is too late to use other lines or the 2022 lines.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  138. Trump ratcheting up the crazy. No need to guess his intentions….just listen (well read)

    “In September, Putin took aim at the United States over the dozens of charges leveled against Trump, telling a forum the allegations represented a “rottenness” inside the U.S. that may benefit Russia.

    “It shows the rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach others about democracy,” Putin said at the time, a quote repeated by Trump on Saturday at a rally.

    Trump also laid praise on Orban, whom he lauded as “highly respected.”

    Trump came to the defense of those arrested in connection to the Jan. 6 2021 attack on the Capitol, characterizing them not as rioters who assaulted police and civilians while storming Congress, but as political prisoners.

    “I don’t call them prisoners, I call them hostages,” Trump said. “They’re hostages.””

    Poisoning the blood. Nice. Tag-teaming with Putin. Awesome. Hostages. Perfect. I hear that Biden is worse, but I’m struggling to see it.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-quotes-putin-and-rants-about-immigrants-poisoning-american-blood

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  139. Pew Research Center Poll 12/14/23

    …………
    A new Pew Research Center survey, conducted Nov. 27-Dec. 3, 2023, among 5,203 adults, including 1,901 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters, finds Trump with a substantial lead over his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination.
    …………
    Donald Trump is the first choice of roughly half (52%) of Republican and Republican-leaning independent registered voters for the Republican nomination for president in 2024. Far smaller shares name Ron DeSantis (14%), Nikki Haley (11%), Vivek Ramaswamy (3%) or Chris Christie (1%) as their top choice.
    ……………
    …………66% of Republican voters with a high school education or less support Donald Trump, compared with 53% of those with some college experience, 37% of those with a four-year college degree and 34% of those with a postgraduate degree.

    College-educated Republican voters are about twice as likely as those without college degrees to support either DeSantis or Haley – 40% of college graduates support one of these two candidates, compared with 19% of non-college graduates…………

    Roughly seven-in-ten Republican voters (71%) say they would be satisfied if Trump became the Republican nominee in 2024, including about half (49%) who say they would be very satisfied.

    A majority (64%) also say they would be satisfied if DeSantis won the nomination, including 25% who would be very satisfied.…………

    About half of Republican voters (48%) would be satisfied if Haley were nominated, while about a third (32%) would be dissatisfied. Two-in-ten GOP voters say they have not heard enough about Haley to say.
    …………
    Just over half of Republican voters (54%) rate the overall field of candidates running for the nomination as either excellent (9%) or good (45%), while 35% describe the field as only fair and 11% rate it as poor.
    ………….
    Overall, 68% of Republican voters say the caucuses and primaries will do a good job of selecting the best candidate, though just 10% say they will do a very good job.
    …………
    A majority of Republican voters (62%) say Donald Trump has had a positive impact on the Republican Party since he entered politics. A quarter say that his impact has been negative, while 13% say that the former president has had neither a positive nor negative impact.
    ………….
    …………. 71% of Republican voters with a high school education or less view Trump’s impact as positive, compared with 63% of those with some college experience and 53% of those with college degrees.……..
    ………….

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  140. AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 12/17/2023 @ 11:23 am

    Thanks-I did miss it. However winning a primary where independents and Democrats can vote doesn’t mean much for Trump’s support in the Republican Party.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  141. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/17/2023 @ 8:44 am

    Do you think that Iran is going to risk a war with the US — one the mullahs would lose — because we destroyed the ability of Houthis to launch attacks?

    Iran is gambling that the United States doesn’t want to risk a war with Iran, and it doesn’t have to do anything to avoid a war with the United States except limit itself to proxies. If they’re wrong they can always back down before it spirals out of control.

    In the meantime they harm Egypt. Egypt is already doing what Iran wants: Trap the civilian population of Gaza in Gaza, with some exceptions, which could include Hamas leaders, if it comes to that.

    Hamas has no incentive to stop fighting if it believes it can always agree to a ceasefire. That’s why Biden is against it. He wants a low level war. He agrees with Israel that Hamas must be destroyed, but thinks the Palestinian Authority can be reformed.

    U.S. policy is a.mess, if you look beyond a few weeks..

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  142. AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 12/17/2023 @ 11:23 am

    Also, the NH primary has a checkered history of selecting the party nominees and future presidents:

    The winner in New Hampshire has not always gone on to win their party’s nomination, as demonstrated by Republicans Leonard Wood in 1920, Harold Stassen in 1948, Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. as a write-in candidate in 1964, Pat Buchanan in 1996, and John McCain in 2000……..

    From 1952 to 1988, the person elected president had always carried the primary, but Bill Clinton broke the pattern in 1992, as did George W. Bush in 2000, Barack Obama in 2008, and Joe Biden in 2020. In 1992, Clinton lost to Paul Tsongas in New Hampshire; in 2000, George W. Bush lost to John McCain in New Hampshire; in 2008 Barack Obama lost to Hillary Clinton; and in 2020 Joe Biden lost to Bernie Sanders.

    We’ll see soon enough.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  143. Drip, drip, drip. Mix in the crazy. Mix in the legal baggage. Mix in the fact that Haley is actually likable and reasonable. Mix in DeSantis sinking. Let’s hope the GOP ends up being different from what you imagine.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  144. AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 12/17/2023 @ 11:34 am

    Poisoning the blood. Nice.

    Trump is trolling, trying to get an over the top attack on himself.

    Tag-teaming with Putin.

    No, with Hitler. Read your link.

    The phrase is from Mein Kamph. But a man with Jewish grandchildren can’t mean by that what Hitler did.

    Awesome. Hostages. Perfect. I hear that Biden is worse, but I’m struggling to see it.

    Well he isn’t.

    This is shaping up as a perfect storm for a good third party candidate.

    Nikki Haley, for all her faults, has achance as a third party candidate.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  145. But she can’t win the Republican nomination, The Republican Party is too small.

    Trump is already at his minimum.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  146. Rip Murdock (ee0cf7) — 12/17/2023 @ 11:38 am

    More from Pew:

    ………
    Roughly six-in-ten Trump supporters (63%) say it is more important for a Republican nominee to focus on this if elected, while 36% say it’s more important for the party’s candidate to focus on finding common ground with Democrats.
    ………….
    By comparison, most of the 11% of Republican voters who support former ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley for the nomination say it’s more important to focus on finding common ground with Democrats.
    …………

    The Haley polling is one reason she will never be supported by a substantial number of MAGA voters.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  147. Nikki Haley, for all her faults, has achance as a third party candidate.

    LOL!

    Rip Murdock (441d65)

  148. Let’s hope the GOP ends up being different from what you imagine.

    Hope is not a strategy; and it’s too late for the GOP to be any different than it is.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  149. AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 12/17/2023 @ 11:23 am

    The margin of error is pretty wide in the NH poll at+/-5.5, so I wouldn’t put too much stock in it.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  150. Nikki Haley is the Non-Trump Candidate, not that it does her much good
    …………
    When Trump first announced his candidacy, it was generally assumed that the non-Trump alternative would be Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). He was popular and had just won an easy reelection victory. He polled well nationally but could talk the Trump talk. In fact, it was pretty much the only talk he talked. But he wasn’t Trump. So, voilà.

    No part of that fell into place.……….

    ……….Instead, as new polling from Pew Research Center demonstrates, it turns out to be former ambassador Nikki Haley. But this does not mean that she is going to compete seriously for the nomination.
    ………….
    Her problem is that the Non-Trump Candidate doesn’t have the traction that people might have expected a year ago. Even if she coalesced every non-Trump supporter nationally, Trump is still over 50 percent. The math doesn’t math, as they say.

    Voting hasn’t started and the only poll that matters is on Election Day and all of that. Stipulated. But there is no reason to think that Donald Trump won’t be the Republican nominee in 2024 and every reason to think that he will be. Republicans found their non-Trump. And they decided they liked Actual Trump better.
    #########

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  151. Even if she coalesced every non-Trump supporter nationally, Trump is still over 50 percent.

    I would expect half of DeSantis supporters and all of Ramaswamy’s would support Trump.

    Rip Murdock (441d65)

  152. WaPo/Monmouth University Michigan Republican Primary Poll

    ………
    The Post-Monmouth poll finds 63 percent of potential Republican primary voters in Michigan support former president Trump for the party’s nomination, compared with 13 percent who support former U.N. ambassador Haley and 13 percent who back DeSantis, Florida’s governor. Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie stands at 5 percent while entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has 3 percent support.

    A 71 percent majority say Trump would be their first or second choice for the nomination, followed by DeSantis at 42 percent and Haley at 29 percent.
    ………..
    For the past three years, the Michigan Republican Party has been a cauldron of election denialism, and one factor behind Trump’s stronger standing in Michigan is broader acceptance of his false claims of voter fraud in 2020. Almost 2 in 3 (64 percent) Michigan Republican voters say Biden won the 2020 election only because of voter fraud, compared with 55 percent of GOP voters in New Hampshire and 57 percent in South Carolina.

    Of those Michigan Republicans who believe voter-fraud claims, 81 percent support Trump for the nomination, compared with 25 percent support among voters who say “Joe Biden won the 2020 election fair and square.”……..

    Asked about Trump’s actions after the 2020 election, 53 percent say he did nothing wrong, 32 percent say that he did something wrong but that it was not criminal, and 11 percent say they believe he committed a crime. ………
    ………..
    Michigan’s Feb. 27 primary is one of the last contests before Super Tuesday, when 16 states host Republican primaries or caucuses……….
    ………….

    From the poll:

    ……….
    Michigan does not have partisan registration, which means voters can choose either party’s primary ballot. These poll results are among voters who indicate having a 50-50 or better chance of voting in the state’s Republican primary. ………another key factor in determining turnout is voter motivation, and among those who report being extremely motivated to vote in this primary Trump’s support stands at 72%.
    ………….
    Trump (75% favorable and 19% unfavorable) and DeSantis (54% favorable and 26% unfavorable) are the only Republican candidates tested in the poll who garner favorable ratings from a majority of the potential primary electorate.………..

    ………. Four in 10 feel abortion should be legal in either all (12%) or most (28%) cases, while 43% say it should be illegal in most cases and 11% say it should be illegal in all cases.……….

    Most Michigan Republicans prefer a candidate who supports some limits on abortion access, but are divided on whether they want someone who backs a six week limit which would ban most abortions (35%) or a 15 week limit which would ban less than half of abortions (35%).

    Trump backers (62%) are also more likely than those who support other candidates (41%) to say abortion should be illegal in most cases and are more likely to prefer a candidate who backs a six week limit (40% of Trump voters compared with 26% of other Republicans)……….
    ………….

    Paragraph breaks added.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  153. The phrase is from Mein Kamph. But a man with Jewish grandchildren can’t mean by that what Hitler did.

    Unsupported by facts.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  154. Trump is losing the sane so he’s bolstering his support from the loonies.

    nk (985e77)

  155. Rip Murdock (ee0cf7) — 12/17/2023 @ 12:33 pm

    Related:

    …….
    For Haley, (the endorsement by New Hampshire’s Gov. Chris Sununu) was great news, just as Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds had publicly backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, or South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster had gone in for Trump. But for Republicans yearning to move on from the former president, it was a disaster — capping one of the worst weeks yet in the movement to block Trump from the nomination.

    “If you’re Trump, that’s the best-case scenario,” said Phil Taub, a prominent New Hampshire donor and Republican activist who is close with Sununu. “Everybody just wants it to be Trump versus one candidate. But as long as they are splitting up all the votes, Trump doesn’t even have to get 50 percent.”
    ……….
    “No one’s getting out,” veteran New Hampshire-based Republican strategist Dave Carney said. “All the ‘No Trump’ voters are divided among four people. And math is a very simple process.”
    ……….
    The problem for anti-Trump Republicans this time is not only that the field is similarly divided (as it was in 2016), but Trump’s lead in all four early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina) is drastically higher.
    ……….
    Few of the candidates’ efforts, however, are aimed at dragging down Trump. During the last GOP debate, Trump’s opponents spent more time attacking Haley, whose campaign has been on the rise, than the frontrunner himself. And Haley and DeSantis’ allies continue to spend money on television against each other, rather than trying to close the gap with Trump.
    ……….
    And to make matters worse for Trump’s opponents, there’s no guarantee that if more candidates drop out, their supporters will shift to another Trump alternative, anyway. Half of likely DeSantis voters in a recent University of New Hampshire/CNN poll said Trump would be their second choice, while more Ramaswamy voters would break for Trump than DeSantis.
    ……….
    Instead, in a contest where Trump is so dominant, candidates are turning to wish-casting, seizing on every infinitesimal shift in public surveys to bolster their case. After polls started showing him rising into third place in New Hampshire, Christie began telling voters that it was now a “three-person” race in the state between him, Haley and Trump. ……..
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  156. More shippers now avoiding the Suez Canal, due to Houthi attacks. We often hear about how China looks at Ukraine to judge American willingness to defend allies, but what about China looking at our inability to protect vital sea lanes? Everyone around the South China Sea is watching this.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  157. Fong is an idiot.

    McCarthy is the idiot.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  158. A majority of Republican voters (62%) say Donald Trump has had a positive impact on the Republican Party since he entered politics. A quarter say that his impact has been negative, while 13% say that the former president has had neither a positive nor negative impact.

    Define “Republican voters.” They are not the same bunch who called themselves that in 2012. I very much doubt that if you correlated this question against “voted for Mitt Romney” you’d get a much different answer.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  159. U.S. policy is a.mess, if you look beyond a few weeks

    And inside of a few weeks, it’s merely cowardly.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  160. Thanks-I did miss it. However winning a primary where independents and Democrats can vote doesn’t mean much for Trump’s support in the Republican Party.

    If Haley beats Trump in NH, Trump is toast. The story will go from “Trump, the frontrunner” to “Trump, the former frontrunner” and everyone who was going along with the Big Dog will look for an exit.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  161. Hope is not a strategy; and it’s too late for the GOP to be any different than it is.

    Better get used to the wind from Vichy, eh?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  162. Thanks-I did miss it. However winning a primary where independents and Democrats can vote doesn’t mean much for Trump’s support in the Republican Party.

    I’m not sure I follow this. Are you saying that Democrats in NH would vote for Trump to RF the GOP?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  163. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/18/2023 @ 10:10 am

    If Haley beats Trump in NH, Trump is toast. The story will go from “Trump, the frontrunner” to “Trump, the former frontrunner” and everyone who was going along with the Big Dog will look for an exit.

    It will merely mean “Trump is perhaps not insurmountable, but New Hampshire is unusual..”

    The New Hampshire primary will be on January 23. Biden will participate only as a write-in, and there may be a fringe candidate or two.

    Next for the Republicans is Nevada, February 6. Haley will “win” the Nevada “beauty contest” primary where she is the only candidate. The Republican National Committee gave candidates a choice of participating either in the primary or the caucuses. Haley will not be registered in the caucuses. So Nevada won’t count for momentum. But there are some other Republican caucuses before the

    It will then go to South Carolina

    The Democrats and the Republicans have primaries in South Carolina on different days. Always on Saturday. The Democratic primary will be held on February 3 and the Republicans on February 24.

    If she doesn’t beat Trump there, Haley is toast in the Republican Party. If she can find some excuse to run as an independent, she has a some chance of being elected president.

    If she does win in South Carolina, it goes to Super Tuesday. Haley will probably finesse Michigan the same way she will do Nevada. The oprimary which will not count will be on February 27 – Republican caucuses wil be on March 2.

    United States politics will be in turmoil by then. No aid to Ukraine, no new aid to Israel possibly, immigration deadlock even after Biden gives Republicans more than half of what they want and a continuing partial government shutdown with no clear resolution.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  164. As for that CBS/YouGov poll, they are hiding the PDF behind a paywall.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  165. Rip tels us that Hope is not a strategy. But if there is no hope, why bother with the strategy?

    Also, at this point, I wonder what Rip, the voter, is going to do. I don’t think he can make himself vote Democratic. And what strategy is there in voting third party or for Mickey Mouse (or maybe Bugs Bunny, because Mickey Mouse is woke).

    Appalled (03f53c)

  166. Trump is perhaps not insurmountable

    Trump not being “insurmountable” will peel off his support from people who look at polls to decide their opinions.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  167. because Mickey Mouse is woke

    I’m hearing that Mickey might be gender-fluid and there really is no “Minnie.”

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  168. Debate question I would like to hear:

    “How would you characterize teaching 8 year olds that gender is a choice, and that they can change their gender if they want?”

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  169. 125. Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 12/17/2023 @ 8:15 am

    2½-mile long peaceful tunnel in Gaza discovered, used to transport baby milk.

    What does not come out so clear in the stories is that this was not used on October 7. It was abandoned mid-construction because Israel had developed sonar capable of detecting tunnels that ran under the border and they destroyed them all. (Israel did not know until they went into Gaza how close to Israel the tunnel went – maybe hey did not concern themselves any more with tunnels that did not go to the border)

    Not knowing Hamas would try anything but tunnels – that’s not quite correct – they did have the Jericho Wall document – but perhaps that did not describe everything – Israel assumed that they had a good defense against invasion and that all attacks were foiled until such a time as Hamas built more tunnels to cross the border.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  170. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/18/2023 @ 11:47 am

    “How would you characterize teaching 8 year olds that gender is a choice, and that they can change their gender if they want?”

    They don’t quite do that.

    Just ask them if they think professional associations can be wrong or, better, can people freely disregard that.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  171. Three men came out of a tunnel or with one carrying a makeshift white flag (as civilians do in Hamas controlled areas)

    Should be a tunnel or a building.

    It was a building.

    One Israeli solder fired Two were killed and one was wounded but ran into the building. A voice was heard (by other soldiers) f someone in Hebrew saying help. The commander of the soldiers got n front of the building and told them not to fire. At some point the third man went out of the building and was killed. Almost as soon as he was killed the body or bodies were examined and something about them (type or length of beard? vaccination scar?) told them they could be Israeli and their bodies were taken to Israel.

    It seems like in practical terms, the IDF was often making surrender not easy There was a lot of shoot to kill also on October 7 but they did get some prisoners..

    and no shirts (to avoid suspicion of carrying weapons or maybe a suicide belt, The Israeli soldiers shot at them, killing two instantly, and the third began running away, shouting in Hebrew. He was fired at some more and killed. Then they discovered that they were hostages. The IDF says that the soldiers violated the rules of engagement (at what point, if they said, it didn’t make it into the news.)

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  172. So Nevada won’t count for momentum. But there are some other Republican caucuses before the[n]

    I am not sure.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  173. However winning a primary where independents and Democrats can vote doesn’t mean much for Trump’s support in the Republican Party.

    I’m not sure I follow this. Are you saying that Democrats in NH would vote for Trump to RF the GOP?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/18/2023 @ 11:33 am

    I think some Democrats would vote for Trump to troll Republicans. My point is that if Haley beats Trump with Democrat and independent votes, the results won’t mean that Trump’s support is declining among Republicans. Conversely, such a result won’t demonstrate an increase in Republican support for Haley. This is the problem of open primaries.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  174. There is no real Dem primary in NH this coming year.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  175. So Nevada won’t count for momentum. But there are some other Republican caucuses before the[n]

    I am not sure.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/18/2023 @ 12:12 pm

    Iowa is caucus state.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  176. @171 netanyahu refused to send troops guarding palestinian land stealing settlers on the west bank so he didn’t lose his coalition.

    asset (1c150b)

  177. Thats the nice way to tell it. My telling it a lot less nice.

    asset (1c150b)

  178. If Haley beats Trump in NH, Trump is toast. The story will go from “Trump, the frontrunner” to “Trump, the former frontrunner” and everyone who was going along with the Big Dog will look for an exit.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/18/2023 @ 10:10 am

    As I said above in post 175, Haley if she wins with Democrat and independent votes, Trump could fairly claim that the results are a true test of Haley’s support within the Republican electorate. I doubt Trump’s front runner status will change.

    As far as anyone heading to the exits after one primary, LOL!.

    If…..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  179. Hope is not a strategy; and it’s too late for the GOP to be any different than it is.

    Better get used to the wind from Vichy, eh?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/18/2023 @ 10:12 am

    Better get used to reality.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  180. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/18/2023 @ 10:02 am

    Fong is the idiot because he can’t understand a simple sentence in California election law:

    No person may file nomination papers …….. for more than one office at the same election.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  181. A majority of Republican voters (62%) (in Michigan) say Donald Trump has had a positive impact on the Republican Party since he entered politics. A quarter say that his impact has been negative, while 13% say that the former president has had neither a positive nor negative impact.

    Define “Republican voters.” They are not the same bunch who called themselves that in 2012. I very much doubt that if you correlated this question against “voted for Mitt Romney” you’d get a much different answer.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/18/2023 @ 10:06 am

    I’m certain Romney supporters are part of the 38% that disagree with that statement. 2012 is an eon ago in Republican politics.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  182. And then they wonder how we got Trump. People who talk about Democrats crossing over to vote for “Anybody But Trump” in the Republican primaries probably have never voted in a primary.

    The Presidency is not the only office on the ballot, and people are not going to forsake their preferred candidates for governor, senator, congressman, judge, or water reclamation commissioner. Particularly in safe voting subdivisions, where the primary decides the election. You think there’s a single AOC voter who will cross over, for example?

    nk (bb1548)

  183. AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 12/17/2023 @ 11:23 am

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/18/2023 @ 11:41 am

    Based on the standings in the CBS/Yougov poll, the following are the range of delegates that could be awarded to Trump and Haley:

    Donald Trump: 21-26 in Iowa (out of 40); 10-16 delegates in New Hampshire (out of 22).

    Nikki Haley: 4-7 in Iowa; and 5-8 in New Hampshire.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  184. The Presidency is not the only office on the ballot, and people are not going to forsake their preferred candidates for governor, senator, congressman, judge, or water reclamation commissioner. Particularly in safe voting subdivisions, where the primary decides the election. You think there’s a single AOC voter who will cross over, for example?

    nk (bb1548) — 12/18/2023 @ 1:43 pm

    If you live in a reliably red or blue state where the candidates already represent your policy preferences, I can certainly see voters crossing over to play havoc in the opposing primary. Since AOC is presumably in a safe seat, I certainly could see an AOC voter crossing over, and more so for an AOC supporter who is outside New York.

    Rush Limbaugh advocated Operation Chaos to encourage Republicans to vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries to weaken both her and Obama.

    Oh wait. How did that work out again?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  185. “Hope is not a strategy; and it’s too late for the GOP to be any different than it is.”

    It ain’t over till it’s over! Why are you committed to making the 8 people here as cynical as you are?

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  186. AJ_Liberty (ec7f74) — 12/18/2023 @ 2:16 pm

    HEH! I’m already cynical, but it’s (the 8 people here) still funny.

    felipe (5e2a04)

  187. “Hope is not a strategy; and it’s too late for the GOP to be any different than it is.”

    It ain’t over till it’s over! Why are you committed to making the 8 people here as cynical as you are?

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74) — 12/18/2023 @ 2:16 pm

    I’m just pointing out that wishful and magical thinking on how Trump can be defeated is not a viable strategy, given the facts at hand. Nothing so far points to a nomination victory by anyone not named Trump. The Republican establishment aren’t doing their job, the Lilliputians aren’t coalescing around one candidate, in fact they are attacking each other rather than Trump, and despite his four indictments Trump is overwhelmingly popular among Republican voters. While everything you have posted about what might happen if Trump is nominated is probably true, his voters obviously don’t care.

    It’s not a question of being cynical, I’m just being realistic. I’m sorry that people don’t want to hear that.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  188. > McCarthy is the idiot.

    Maybe, but Fong is trying to do something which is explicitly forbidden by law in California. Which means he either hasn’t bothered to figure out what the legal requirements are to run for the office, or he doesn’t care and thinks he can force the courts to say the law doesn’t apply to him.

    aphrael (71d87c)

  189. Much as a NJ judge allowed a replacement Senate candidate to run despite the law being clear he could not.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  190. Based on the standings in the CBS/Yougov poll, the following are the range of delegates that could be awarded to Trump and Haley:

    What happens if Christie drops out and endorses Haley? Then it’s tied. I’m pretty sure that Christie is getting an earful of this, particularly from his #NeverTrump backers.

    “Chris, do you want this to be the third election you’ve thrown to the asshats?”

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  191. Boy, when Trump is NOT the nominee, I expect that Rip will be saying that he’s allergic to crow.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  192. Since AOC is presumably in a safe seat, I certainly could see an AOC voter crossing over, and more so for an AOC supporter who is outside New York.

    Do you think that most voters think about any election other than President? Most voters don’t know who their congressthing is.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  193. I’m certain Romney supporters are part of the 38% that disagree with that statement.

    I parse that and just get air.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  194. You think there’s a single AOC voter who will cross over, for example?

    In New Hampshire? I hope not. But really, more people vote in presidential primaries that don’t know the down-ballot candidates, than do. It’s marginally better than judges.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  195. RIP, Jim Ladd, 75, heart attack. Los Angeles disk jockey — KLOS, and The Mighty KMET and later SiriusXM’s Deep Tracks channel.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  196. Boy, when Trump is NOT the nominee, I expect that Rip will be saying that he’s allergic to crow.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/18/2023 @ 4:19 pm

    Boy, when Trump IS the nominee, I expect that Kevin M will be saying that he’s allergic to crow. FIFY.

    There will be no mea culpas from me if Trump is not the nominee. You mistake my arguments that Trump will be the nominee based on his consistent polling since the spring, as well as the Lilliputians fighting among themselves, as support for Trump himself.

    The crows will be safe.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  197. What happens if Christie drops out and endorses Haley? Then it’s tied. I’m pretty sure that Christie is getting an earful of this, particularly from his #NeverTrump backers.

    “Chris, do you want this to be the third election you’ve thrown to the asshats?”

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/18/2023 @ 4:18 pm

    Christie has made it perfectly clear that he doesn’t intend to drop out before New Hampshire; and that he doesn’t care what others think of him.

    What happens if……

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  198. It’s All Over (Maybe) But the Shouting:

    ………..
    According to 538’s average of national polls, as of Dec. 15, former President Donald Trump leads the primary race with 61 percent. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are essentially tied for second at 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively. Trump also leads by at least 25 percentage points in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. And when you consider Trump’s wide lead alongside how little time remains until voting actually begins, he now looks almost inevitable. Unless a historically unforeseen event happens, Trump is overwhelmingly likely to be his party’s nominee next year.

    In late August, I published an analysis of historical and contemporary polls that gave Trump a roughly 4-in-5 chance of winning the GOP presidential nomination. That article looked at how often past presidential candidates polling at 50 percent nationally (as Trump was in August) went on to win their party’s nod. ……..

    ……….His 61 percent in the polls now equates to a more than 9-in-10 chance of winning the nomination. No presidential candidate in history has lost the nomination while being so far ahead in the national polls this late in the cycle. The highest-polling losing candidate was then-Sen. Hillary Clinton in 2008 — who led the national polls with slightly less than 40 percent in mid-December 2007. (And she still won 23 contests and 47 percent of delegates at the August Democratic National Convention.)
    ……..
    ……..When surprises happen, it’s usually when upstart candidates stage comebacks. But clear leaders rarely lose. Every candidate with at least 40 percent in national polls in mid-December has gone on to win their party’s nomination. …….
    ………
    There is still a chance that the polls are wrong or that history does not serve as a guide to the 2024 primary. Unknown variables range from whether Trump will be convicted of a felony before officially being nominated in July, to how long his leading opponents will stay in the race and whether Republican voters start to worry that Trump might be “unelectable” in a general election.

    But the impacts of these events feel tiny compared to Trump’s current commanding lead. Four months ago, he looked like an obvious leader, but not a foregone conclusion. Now, the hopes for his competition lie on a once-in-a-generation political comeback. Do any of them have what it takes?
    ##########

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  199. In-evita-ble. All together now …

    Don’t cry for me, Mar-a-Lago

    nk (bb1548)

  200. Statement from CBP on Suspension of Rail Operations in Eagle Pass and El Paso, Texas

    “CBP is continuing to surge all available resources to safely process migrants in response to increased levels of migrant encounters at the Southwest Border, fueled by smugglers peddling disinformation to prey on vulnerable individuals. After observing a recent resurgence of smuggling organizations moving migrants through Mexico via freight trains, CBP is taking additional actions to surge personnel and address this concerning development, including in partnership with Mexican authorities.

    “Beginning December 18, 2023 at 8:00 AM local time, CBP’s Office of Field Operations will temporarily suspend operations at the international railway crossing bridges in Eagle Pass and El Paso, Texas in order to redirect personnel to assist the U.S. Border Patrol with taking migrants into custody. CBP will continue to prioritize our border security mission as necessary in response to this evolving situation…

    Destroying our commerce and our nation at large.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  201. https://www.nationalreview.com/news/americore-gave-james-biden-600k-loan-on-promise-hed-deliver-funding-from-middle-east-trustee-says/

    Carol Fox, an Americore Chapter 11 trustee, told the House Oversight Committee on Monday that the now-bankrupt healthcare company previously provided a $600,000 loan to James Biden on the promise that he could bring in funding from the Middle East that never materialized.

    On March 1, 2018, after Americore wired a $200,000 loan to James and Sara Biden’s personal bank account, James Biden sent a payment of the same amount to Joe Biden for an alleged loan repayment.

    Fox previously filed a lawsuit against James Biden claiming he made “representations that his last name, ‘Biden,’ could ‘open doors’ and that he could obtain a large investment from the Middle East based on his political connections.”

    The suit alleged that Americore sent $600,000 to James and Sara Biden’s personal bank accounts in total and demanded James Biden repay Americore the full amount. James Biden ultimately agreed to a settlement payment of $350,000.

    Fox told the committee in a transcribed interview on Monday that she saw no records or documentation of the loan from Americore to James Biden and that the company instead chose to provide a loan with no documentation based on the promise that James Biden could bring in funding from the Middle East, a person familiar with the committee’s investigation into the Biden family’s business dealings told National Review.

    Fox said the money James Biden ultimately paid to his brother could have come from two possible sources: predatory loans or senior citizens’ money fraudulently invested by James Biden’s business partner, Michael Lewitt.

    Move on. Nothing to see here.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  202. James Biden should be impeached. Oh, wait…..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  203. Boy, when Trump IS the nominee, I expect that Kevin M will be saying that he’s allergic to crow. FIFY.

    Well, I’ll be miserable enough that it won’t matter, with a steady diet of lies and constitutional crises.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  204. On the “Don’t Hit Women” Front, Johnathan Majors joins several world-class LA Dodger pitchers at the Early Retirement Home.

    Jonathan Majors is out of the Marvel Studios kingdom

    The news comes today in the wake of the Emmy-nominated actor being found guilty of reckless assault and harassment in his domestic violence trial by a six-person NYC jury.

    A studio rep confirmed the news about their decision to not move forward with Majors in the MCU.

    Majors played megavillain He Who Remains aka Kang the Conqueror in the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s Phases 4 through 6. He debuted as the character during Season 1 of Loki in 2021, then continued on in Season 2 this year, as well as the February movie Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which made more than $476M worldwide. Majors also had back-to-back hit in Amazon MGM’s Creed III in March, which grossed over $275M….

    Soon after his March arrest, Majors was fired by his manager 360 Entertainment and publicist The Lede Company. The actor, who received a Primetime Emmy actor drama nomination for HBO’s Lovecraft Country back in 2021, was also let go from myriad projects including Protagonist Pictures‘ feature adaptation of the Walter Mosley novel, The Man in My Basement, an ad campaign for the Texas Rangers MLB team, as well as the unannounced Fifth Season Otis Redding biopic which the actor was circling.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  205. “I’m just pointing out that wishful and magical thinking on how Trump can be defeated is not a viable strategy”

    Again, you’ve not posed a viable strategy. You just think the field going full Christie will magically transform the MAGA horde — despite what all of the candidate internal polling is telling them. Talk about no evidence of something happening.

    It is true that such a campaign is agonizingly rough. It’s not rational. Rational people would see Trump’s baggage….and not say “hey, nice baggage”. Rational people would be more than a bit concerned when their guy starts cribbing from Hitler. Rational people would check their applause when their guy starts rattling off Pravda talking points and quoting Putin as if he’s objective. Rational people don’t excuse the guy who calls for a riot and then sits and watches it.

    There’s a lot of irrational afoot…and like talking the crazy person off the ledge, it probably ain’t smart to be calling them crazy for being on that ledge. Like tricking your kid into eating brussel sprouts, you kinda have to wear down the resistance. Eventually the less crazy will see that the king is buck naked….and that Marco Rubio was damn right!

    Yes the clock’s ticking…the polls are bad…and rational people have clumps of their own hair clenched in their fingers. Thank goodness there are wars and university presidents to distract us. Nothing is baked while Trump campaigns. I mean, there’s Marx and Machiavelli yet to quote….

    AJ_Liberty (082886)

  206. The numbers are only going in Trump’s direction. Per RCP, 63% of my party is in the thrall of a cult, more than ever was. Indictments and fraud rulings didn’t change a thing, so I don’t expect a felony conviction or two will stop Orange Jesus from getting nominated.
    My party is sick.

    Paul Montagu (d52d7d)

  207. Like tricking your kid into eating brussel sprouts, you kinda have to wear down the resistance.

    This is rational? Your kid may never forgive you.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  208. @183 2/3 of party is now populist in 2012 and earlier they had no voice because of rich conservative donor money with the ignorant poor white trash having to go along to keep their racism intact. Only trumps $$$ money allowed their voices to be heard more then occasionally (kanter 2014) They run the party now don’t let the door hit you on the way out!

    asset (65cd88)

  209. @184 many Obama/trump voters in 2016 look at Iowa for example. Others like me voted third party that cost clinton and would have cost biden if democrat party didn’t kick green party off ballot that allowed trump to win in 2016. mi, pa. and penn. by 77,000 votes jill stein got 150,000.

    asset (65cd88)

  210. @208 It is not your party unless your a populist.

    asset (65cd88)

  211. Israel loses the propaganda war again today. No not the hostage pictures. ABC news shows interview with wounded young palestinian girl in hospital who lost her family on airstrike on her home that she was dug out of. Then shows same girl killed in Israeli air strike on children’s ward of hospital. This goes on day after day costing Israel the propaganda war. If you strongly support Israel her death means little if you don’t like biden’s young voters it means a lot. Even this senile old corrupt fool nows he can’t lose independents to inflation and immigration and the left to his support of Israel. Why does netanyahu think time is on his side unless he has another one of his side hustles going like letting qatar give hamas cash after his cut.

    asset (65cd88)

  212. Again, you’ve not posed a viable strategy.

    It’s not my job to pose a “viable strategy.” That’s the job of of the candidates and their campaigns. You over estimate the influence of this forum.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  213. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/18/2023 @ 6:33 pm

    He’s famous now; I never heard of him until this news. Who cares?

    Rip Murdock (441d65)

  214. You just think the field going full Christie will magically transform the MAGA horde — despite what all of the candidate internal polling is telling them. Talk about no evidence of something happening.

    It’s as “viable” as anything else posted here, which is to say not at all.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  215. Don’t get into a tiff with your girlfriend in Manhattan if there’s a chance that prosecuting you will get Alvin Bragg newspaper space.

    nk (bb1548)

  216. You just think the field going full Christie will magically transform the MAGA horde — despite what all of the candidate internal polling is telling them. Talk about no evidence of something happening.

    It would certainly be better than the Lilliputian current strategy of attacking each other and letting Trump cruise along.

    “If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.”

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  217. AJ_Liberty (082886) — 12/18/2023 @ 7:55 pm

    What is your “viable” strategy? Your posts lay out the consequences of a Trump nomination (which I agree with), but I don’t recall seeing any strategy (aside from just not voting for Trump) to avoid those consequences. Can you elaborate?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  218. There will be no mea culpas from me if Trump is not the nominee. You mistake my arguments that Trump will be the nominee based on his consistent polling since the spring, as well as the Lilliputians fighting among themselves, as support for Trump himself.

    The crows will be safe.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/18/2023 @ 5:08 pm

    Everything I have posted was true at the time, based on the polling. If someone else is the nominee, it certainly was evident over the past six months. It’s the pollsters who need to eat crow (again).

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  219. Correction:

    If someone else is the nominee, it certainly wasn’t</em> evident over the past six months.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  220. Fox News Poll 12/17/23

    ………
    Trump’s support stands at 69% in the primary race. That’s up 7 points since November and fully 26 points since February.

    Ron DeSantis receives 12% support (down 1 point since November), Nikki Haley gets 9% (-1), Vivek Ramaswamy 5% (-2), Chris Christie 2% (-1), and Asa Hutchinson 1% (steady).
    ……….
    “Haley appears to have the broadest support of any Republican candidate and may be in the best position to take on Biden,” says Republican Daron Shaw, who partners with Democrat Chris Anderson on the Fox News Poll. “But the simple fact is most Republicans currently prefer Trump, so the stakes in the early contests are high. She needs to beat DeSantis in Iowa and finish a strong second in New Hampshire to shake up the race.”
    ……….
    Trump is viewed positively by 85% of Republicans, far outdistancing DeSantis (66%), Haley (44%), Ramaswamy (37%), and Christie (27%). For comparison, 79% of Democrats view Biden favorably.
    ……….
    Voters remain divided (on impeachment): 49% think impeachment is a legitimate action on a serious matter vs. 48% saying it’s a bogus attempt to undermine Biden’s presidency, mostly unchanged since September.
    ………
    Overall, 38% of voters think the president did something illegal related to Hunter’s business, 27% say unethical, and 32% say nothing wrong. Those numbers have barely moved all year.
    ……….
    Among 2020 Trump voters, most still support him in the GOP primary race (74%), but 12% now back DeSantis, 8% Haley, 4% Ramaswamy, and 1% Christie.
    ………..
    Most voters (73%), believe the U.S. president should “always” follow the law. That’s more than three times as many as say the U.S. is so far off track that it needs a president who will “break some laws” to set things right (22%). Twice as many 2024 Trump supporters (32%) as Biden supporters (14%) think the country needs a president who will break some laws.
    ……….

    Toplines and crosstabs.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  221. asset (65cd88) — 12/18/2023 @ 11:37 pm

    This is why Israel should have imposed a media blackout once it invaded Gaza. Big mistake not to do so.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  222. Twice as many 2024 Trump supporters (32%) as Biden supporters (14%) think the country needs a president who will break some laws.

    That is one of them there so-called validation questions to see if the pollsters are morons, the polled are morons, or if the poll is moronic.

    nk (bb1548)

  223. Any macro-strategy starts with Right-wing media. The bulk of Right-wing media should at minimum be troubled by Trump’s illiberal actions and rhetoric. They aren’t. In fact, many are incestuously too close to team Trump to be objective. Over time, they helped create Trumpism by overplaying rhetoric and selling this notion of existential threat, especially during the Obama years. Right-wing media was ripe for being compromised by an ideologue that played to all its worst instincts. There is too little actual journalism going on and it’s not especially valued broadly. As a people we prefer ideological spin because that simplifies what we need to know and plays to our biases and prejudices.

    So you need deep pocket right-leaning individuals to want to fund a different media ecosystem. The people will follow the preachers. Less Hannity-esque and more Krauthammer-esque. The current system makes the owners money and provides them influence so you will probably have to see the partisan monster ravaging the countryside before they rethink how they make their money. The Fox lawsuit was helpful, but it was not transformative. They will just continue but be a little bit more careful….like not bringing Trump on live as a guest.

    Short term, you have to sell the notion that Trump cannot get anything done and is too liable to misstep. You have to coax his persuadable supporters. People identify with him. Attacking him is taken personally. People need to become exhausted by the Trump drama. Candidates need to be seen as fighters but more shrewd. The reality is that it might not work, but the tsunami of stress on Trump is still coming. He rhetoric is becoming more unhinged. There are still enough good people that can swayed away. The field will consolidate and a side-by-side comparison is inevitable. Most people don’t want crazy, dictators, or retribution. Marketing will kick in.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  224. The bulk of Right-wing media should at minimum be lynched

    FIFY

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  225. Rip,

    Your analysis does not take into account the effect of actual trials that could have Trump put in jail. Your assumption is, based on what you have written, is that they will likely not happen before next November. You are likely mistaken. The Supremes and the DC Court give every indication of giving Trump’s appeals short shrift.

    I doubt the polling is inaccurate, though it may underestimate the willingness of MAGA people to switch when the January 6 trial results in convictions.

    Appalled (03f53c)

  226. Trump succeeds because the issues facing the country have been papered over for so long that someone willing to blow them up and start over gets incredible traction.

    The problem is that, while he can blow things up, his ultimate solutions are incoherent.

    Perhaps it is time for some of the contenders to get off the fence about things like the southern border, but their problem is that any clear program will have many critics, while an incoherent one is a mud fort.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  227. Rip’s analysis is a classic static analysis, assuming that the future is merely small perturbations on the present and that “catastrophe theory” never comes into play.

    And Trump risks any number of catastrophes.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  228. In politics, “catastrophe theory” plays out as a “preference cascade” in which people start changing their minds suddenly and this effect snowballs.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  229. > while he can blow things up, his ultimate solutions are incoherent.

    Yes. And so the republic will fall and be replaced by a soft dictatorship, accompanied by wild cheering.

    Congratulations, Republicans.

    aphrael (71d87c)

  230. @227

    Rip,

    Your analysis does not take into account the effect of actual trials that could have Trump put in jail. Your assumption is, based on what you have written, is that they will likely not happen before next November. You are likely mistaken. The Supremes and the DC Court give every indication of giving Trump’s appeals short shrift.

    I doubt the polling is inaccurate, though it may underestimate the willingness of MAGA people to switch when the January 6 trial results in convictions.

    Appalled (03f53c) — 12/19/2023 @ 10:34 am

    I’m not so sure if this holds anymore.

    Everyone knows he’s been in courts. Everyone knows that he’s been convicted in some of them (both are civil cases, but still).

    I don’t know if being a convicted felon will change all that much.

    Whatever bagging Trump may have regarding his court cases… it seems to be “baked in” at this point.

    whembly (5f7596)

  231. @231

    > while he can blow things up, his ultimate solutions are incoherent.

    Yes. And so the republic will fall and be replaced by a soft dictatorship, accompanied by wild cheering.

    Congratulations, Republicans.

    aphrael (71d87c) — 12/19/2023 @ 10:59 am

    Republic is not going to “fall”, nor will there be a “soft dictatorship”.

    Trump, nor any other President, is going to ignore Congress and the Judiciary.

    Speculating as such, is irrational doomerism.

    whembly (5f7596)

  232. “Yes. And so the republic will fall and be replaced by a soft dictatorship, accompanied by wild cheering.

    Congratulations, Republicans.”

    Democrats aren’t worried about a soft dictatorship. They’re just worried it won’t be their soft dictatorship.

    lloyd (136451)

  233. Good move, Texas

    Abbott Signs Law Allowing Texas to Arrest Migrants, Setting Up Federal Showdown

    Biden will sue, creating great optics at exactly the right time.

    lloyd (bcbd50)

  234. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/four-thoughts-on-trump-the-dictator/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=featured-content-trending&utm_term=second


    we can’t really discuss whether Trump is any sort of threat to be a dictator without defining what we mean by “dictator.” Do we mean a president who would try to cut the other branches and levels of government out of the picture so he could rule by his own fiat, while calling their legitimacy into question? A president who would cast doubt on the legitimacy of election results he doesn’t like, and criminally prosecute political opponents while trying to cover up criminality by his own family? Who threatens the courts with dilution of their powers and attacks on their legitimacy if they don’t rule his way? Who threatens to breach long-standing legislative rules he once described as bulwarks against corrupt tyranny, in order to rewrite the voting system to favor his party? Who discards constitutional restraints on his office in order to issue sweeping executive fiats affecting the everyday lives of Americans, based on the flimsiest fig leaf of prior authorization in law, in order to bypass Congress in ways it disapproves? Who does so even while all but admitting that he has no power to do so, is contradicting his own prior statements about the law, and is openly acknowledging that he’s defying prior court rulings and just buying time? As you are probably aware, that’s the president we already have. So, the bar for alarm has to be higher than just “the status quo, but against different targets.”

    if Democrats are actually sincere in worrying that the United States of America is one election away from dictatorship, there are ways to show this. They can join with Republicans in Congress to pass legislation restricting the unilateral powers of the executive branch to make domestic policy by presidential fiat and agency rule and statement. They can make even more explicit that presidents cannot spend money building things, issue new federal debt, or release debts to the government without going through Congress. They can restrict federal involvement in elections, protecting the decentralization of federal elections outside of Washington. They can pass the proposed “Keep Nine” constitutional amendment to ensure that a president with dictatorial ambitions can’t pack the Supreme Court with pliable cronies. They can repeal elastic and open-ended federal criminal statutes and place more restrictions on the FBI and federal prosecutors in pursuing the president’s political enemies. Of course, Democrats want to do none of this, because they want all of those powers for themselves.

    But if they decide that they don’t want any president to wield powers perilous to liberty, I can only say: Welcome to the party, pal.

    Read the whole thing.

    whembly (5f7596)

  235. Your analysis does not take into account the effect of actual trials that could have Trump put in jail. Your assumption is, based on what you have written, is that they will likely not happen before next November. You are likely mistaken. The Supremes and the DC Court give every indication of giving Trump’s appeals short shrift.

    I have not discussed the general election, my focus has been on the primaries. And it is highly unlikely any trials will be completed before Trump secures a majority of delegates, which could be a soon as Super Tuesday.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  236. Your analysis does not take into account the effect of actual trials that could have Trump put in jail.

    Apparently Republican voters haven’t taken trials “that could have” put Trump in jail into account either. Trump +51.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  237. Trump team data suggests clinching GOP nomination by March

    ……….
    The campaign’s analysis of its own internal polling mixed with public surveys puts former president Donald Trump on track to potentially win 973 delegates by Super Tuesday on March 5, and 1,478 by March 19, a senior campaign official told reporters here on Monday. It takes 1,215 delegates to claim the Republican nomination.

    The anticipated delegate tally reflects rule changes that the campaign pushed through state party committees earlier this year, such as awarding all of California’s delegates to any candidate winning more than 50 percent.
    ………
    Winning the nomination in March would overlap with the scheduled start of Trump’s trial in Washington on charges of trying to interfere with the 2020 election results. That case, brought by special counsel Jack Smith, is on hold pending an appeal to the Supreme Court to consider Trump’s argument that he is immune from prosecution for actions taken as president.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  238. Sad!

    ……….
    In a 134-page complaint filed Monday, attorneys for (Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss) wrote that Giuliani “continues to spread the very same lies for which he has already been held liable,” citing comments made last week to ABC News’ Terry Moran outside of court, in which Giuliani insisted that Freeman and Moss were “changing votes.”

    The two women asked the court to prevent Giuliani from “making or publishing … further statements repeating any and all false claims that plaintiffs engaged in election fraud, illegal activity, or misconduct of any kind during or related to the 2020 presidential election.”

    In a separate court filing in their initial defamation case, attorneys for Freeman and Moss warned a federal judge that “there is a substantial risk” that Giuliani will attempt to avoid paying the women, and asked the judge to “permit immediate enforcement” of the $148 million judgment for fear that Giuliani could attempt to “find a way to dissipate [his] assets before plaintiffs are able to recover.”
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  239. Ohio rethug legislator austin beigal says “I don’t give a damn that the Ohio voters voted to protect a woman’s right to have an abortion. They made an immoral choice!” Ohio legislator say he will ban abortion in the state anyway. This is why the democrat party has to stop putting squishes like Biden from running the democrat party. If rethugliKKKans like beigel and trump want to be dictators democrats need leaders will do as Malcolm X said by any means necessary!

    asset (5353d5)

  240. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/19/2023 @ 12:59 pm

    They aren’t the only ones who think it may be over by March.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  241. #238

    Again — the issue isn’t whether Trump can win primaries — it’s whether purple states will let a convicted felon with an unserved sentence on the ballot. That probably does not matter for the primaries, but it matters for both the GOP convention and the general election.

    Appalled (fc546b)

  242. There can be cascade losing Trump votes, but a courtroom verdict won’t cause it. Trump taking a position on an issue could

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  243. So leftist Colorado Court decides to try and start a 2nd Civil War.

    Stupidity and totalitarianism all in one. Congrats.

    NJRob (6836d4)

  244. Again — the issue isn’t whether Trump can win primaries — it’s whether purple states will let a convicted felon with an unserved sentence on the ballot. That probably does not matter for the primaries, but it matters for both the GOP convention and the general election.

    Appalled (fc546b) — 12/19/2023 @ 2:31 pm

    It depends if a) a convention full of Trump supporters will suddenly turn on him and select someone else; and b) a significant number of states will disqualify him and if they do, will their disqualifications be upheld by the Supreme Court.

    I think both are open questions.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  245. There can be cascade losing Trump votes, but a courtroom verdict won’t cause it. Trump taking a position on an issue could

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 12/19/2023 @ 3:26 pm

    LOL! Trump could call the sky green and his supporters would believe it.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  246. Tommy Tuberville folds again:

    The Senate on Tuesday confirmed nearly a dozen nominees for top military posts on Tuesday night, marking the end of Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s remaining holds over senior promotions.

    With senators rushing to wrap up before the holiday, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer secured a deal to confirm all 11 nominees for four-star positions by voice vote.

    The confirmation of all 11 nominees ends Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s blockade of military nominations, which was in its 11th month. | Mariam Zuhaib/AP

    By CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD

    12/19/2023 06:30 PM EST

    Updated: 12/19/2023 06:55 PM EST

    The Senate on Tuesday confirmed nearly a dozen nominees for top military posts on Tuesday night, marking the end of Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s remaining holds over senior promotions.

    With senators rushing to wrap up before the holiday, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer secured a deal to confirm all 11 nominees for four-star positions by voice vote.

    Their confirmation ends Tuberville’s blockade of military nominations……
    ……….
    Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters after leaving the Senate floor, “It’s good news. We’re happy about it.”
    ……….
    In the end, Tuberville consented to allow the remaining nominees to clear easily.
    ……….
    The 11 generals and admirals include picks to lead top military commands and for some of the most senior posts in their services.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  247. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/19/2023 @ 3:51 pm

    LOL! Trump could call the sky green and his supporters would believe it.

    I am sure there are things that Trump could say that would lose him supporters. There always is, with anyone. But Trump is cautious.

    Sammy FInkelman (1d215a)

  248. They also passed a bill the other day awarding back pay (the pay they would have gotten) the people who got their promotions delayed

    Sammy FInkelman (1d215a)

  249. Again — the issue isn’t whether Trump can win primaries — it’s whether purple states will let a convicted felon with an unserved sentence on the ballot. That probably does not matter for the primaries, but it matters for both the GOP convention and the general election.

    Appalled (fc546b) — 12/19/2023 @ 2:31 pm

    If anyone succeeeds on removing Trump’s name from the basllot in purple states, they will reduce the chances of Biden winning the election. Joe Biden wil not run unopposed in any state. This could help athird paty candidate win some electoral votes.

    Anoher scenario: The local Republican Party removes Trump’s name from the ballot and substitutes somebody else. If their electors are elected they vote for Trump.

    Does Kamala Harris then refuse to count the votes? What about the votes for vice president?

    That’s not the way it is supposed to work.

    The determination of whether a president elect is qualified is supposed to take place after he is elected.

    Proof:

    https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/constitutional-amendments-amendment-20-date-changes-presidency-congress-and-succession#:~:text=Amendment%20Twenty%20to%20the%20Constitution,March%204%20to%20January%2020.

    The terms of the President and the Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.

    The Congress shall assemble at least once in every year, and such meeting shall begin at noon on the 3d day of January, unless they shall by law appoint a different day.

    If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

    The Congress may by law provide for the case of the death of any of the persons from whom the House of Representatives may choose a President whenever the right of choice shall have devolved upon them, and for the case of the death of any of the persons from whom the Senate may choose a Vice President whenever the right of choice shall have devolved upon them.

    Sections 1 and 2 shall take effect on the 15th day of October following the ratification of this article.

    Sammy FInkelman (1d215a)

  250. The Atlantic has a whole issue on what could happen if Trump is elected.

    For abortion, they say a Trump DOJ could enforce the 1873 Comstock law on mailing abortion pills or abortion anything to any state.

    Sammy FInkelman (1d215a)

  251. The Atlantic is the reason people vote for Trump. Metaphorically speaking. They’re the other end of the extreme that raises peoples’ hackles.

    nk (bb1548)

  252. The Atlantic has a whole issue on what could happen if Trump is elected.

    Who cares. If he’s elected, he’s elected. We, the People, have that right. For the government to deny him the office if he is truly elected, or the Congress to reject the Electoral votes, would do far more damage to the nation that Dimwit Flathead is capable of.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  253. “We had to burn the Constitution in order to save it”

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  254. I think that the CO ruling is correct as far as the President being covered by the 14th Amendment. You really have to split a lot of hairs to come to the conclusion that the only officer not covered by an amendment intended to protect us from traitors is also the ONLY officeholder given plenary power and full sway over the Executive branch.

    Why protect us from traitorous postmasters but not from a traitorous president?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  255. What is at issue is whether, absent a finding of fact in a court of law, whether popular belief in Trump’s attempt at a coup is sufficient to keep him off the ballot. I think that’s a weak holding.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  256. Sammy, it would be utterly insane to deny a duly elected native-born citizen, over the age of 35, the office. The ship would have well and truly sailed. Unless he is convicted in a court of law of treason, insurrection, or conspiracy to same (none of which are currently alleged) there is no basis for his exclusion.

    And then there’s the small matter of civil war, which is not hyperbole. I think that nothing Trump is capable of doing as President is worth risking civil war. Unless you think death squads going up your block is a fun thought.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  257. BTW, I think that, should the CO ruling stand, that all GOP contenders will have to withdraw from the CO GOP primary and that the CO delegations will not be seated at the Convention.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  258. It’s always good to read the dissents as they will find the weakness in the majority opinion without having to parse it yourself.

    Justice Samour presents the best argument: Lack of procedural due process. The district court, he suggests, employed makeshift proceedings

    which lacked basic discovery , the ability to subpoena documents and
    compel witnesses, workable timeframes to adequately investigate and develop
    defenses,and the opportunity for a fair trial to adjudicate a federal constitutional
    claim (a complicated one at that) masquerading as a run-of-the-mill state Election
    Code claim.

    He agrees that the district court was wrong in excluding any president from the 14th Amendment prohibition, he just doesn’t agree that a case has been presented under the normal rules of law.

    The other two dissents argue a) that Colorado courts are incompetent to judge the issue, or b) that the Election code never authorizes such a proceeding.

    I’m pretty sure that the Colorado SC, having discarded those two arguments gets deference wrt Colorado law. But the lack of a proper hearing, abiding by the rules of evidence is something that federal courts need not defer on.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  259. I tend to agree with Kevin that SCOTUS upends the CO ruling and likely on due process grounds (probably 9-0). Even what is meant by “insurrection” from a 14A perspective is an open question that Congress has not previously weighed in on. The J6 committee DID present the insurrection case against Trump but it was far from adversarial. It was at best a grand jury-like presentation (not that I dismiss their conclusions, but even a rogue is owed a vigorous defense). And the ultimate evidence was not enough for Jack Smith to indict on insurrection which weighs heavily against the CO court conclusion.

    At minimum, it will be great theater for a couple of weeks. Both calling attention to Trump’s legal baggage and enabling him to bask in ever-loving victimhood. How many good Republicans will start to rethink their support?

    AJ_Liberty (bf6c80)

  260. Totalitarian oligarchs in black robes will be the destruction of our nation.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  261. As a postscript, the leftist court masquerading as judges in Colorado just ensured Trump’s nomination. Voters won’t take this attack on their liberty lying down.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  262. Problems for supremes. Thomas wife is an insurrectionist. Gorsuch is quoted in colorado ruling that state has a right to disqualify in hassan case. Sh*t hits the fan in any case. Other states will do this unless corrupt states rights hippocrites judges stooge for trump.

    asset (d341eb)

  263. @264 their are many alternatives that can “happen.” Good way to get rid of trumpsters onec and for all if they try and start civil war. Military brass loathe trump and would crush his second attempt at insurrection.

    asset (d341eb)

  264. The insurrectionists are already talking about starting a civil war tonight!

    asset (d341eb)

  265. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/19/2023 @ 6:51 pm

    And yet in past you have argued that Trump has committed insurrection and sedition without any evidence.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  266. How many good Republicans will start to rethink their support?

    AJ_Liberty (bf6c80) — 12/19/2023 @ 7:38 pm

    I doubt enough of Trump’s supporters will rethink their commitment to him, at least not enough to change the course of the election. The CO Supreme Court decision will just become another data point for Trump to argue that the Deep State is coming after his followers through him.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  267. BTW, I think that, should the CO ruling stand, that all GOP contenders will have to withdraw from the CO GOP primary and that the CO delegations will not be seated at the Convention.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/19/2023 @ 7:01 pm

    Vivek Ramaswamy agrees with you.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  268. I expect the usual response from the Lilliputians:

    DeSantis/Ramaswamy: Defending Trump

    Christie: Attacks Trump

    Haley: ?

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  269. And yet in past you have argued that Trump has committed insurrection and sedition without any evidence.

    And I still assert that. However, I am not a court and my beliefs are not evidence.

    Nor are yours.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  270. Vivek Ramaswamy agrees with you.

    Doesn’t prove me wrong.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  271. I think that most people here can separate their animus towards the traitor and the idea that the Rule of Law requires both Rules and Laws. William Roper, call your office.

    I also think that [some] presidential candidates can separate this too.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  272. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/19/2023 @ 10:03 pm

    My beliefs are based on what the says, not on something I make up.

    Rip Murdock (441d65)

  273. Let’s try that one more time:

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/19/2023 @ 10:03 pm

    My beliefs are based on what the law says, not on something I make up.

    Rip Murdock (441d65) — 12/19/2023 @ 10:47 pm

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  274. AJ_Liberty (bf6c80) — 12/19/2023 @ 7:38 pm

    I expect the Supreme Court to issue a short, unsigned per curiam opinion staying the Colorado SC decision, followed by arguments heard in June. Since this will be a case of first impression, I don’t think the Court will reach the merits immediately. And it is sufficiently important that they need to have both parties fully brief the issues before they make such a landmark ruling.

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  275. Gorsuch got some explaining to do since co court quotes his dicision in hassan.

    asset (d341eb)

  276. The U.S. Supreme Court has no jurisdiction to review the decision of the Colorado court.

    Ripeness.

    No Presidential candidate needs to win any particular state’s primary in order to be on the state’s ballot in the general election. All he needs is to be nominated as his party’s candidate at its national convention.

    If Trump is nominated at the RNC, and then Colorado refuses to put him on the ballot in the general election, then that’s when there will be a federal case.

    nk (bb1548)

  277. Anyway, the 14th Amendment was supposed to sunset with the end of Reconstruction, as were the 13th and 15th.

    They were only intended to facilitate the healing of the fractures in the Union after the Civil War.

    They were enacted as the rules imposed by an occupying power, without any meaningful participation by half the country.

    Once the seceding states had been fully reincorporated into the Union, their continued existence became illegitimate.

    nk (bb1548)

  278. The continued existence of the Amendments, I mean, not the of the states.

    nk (bb1548)

  279. Seriously, Trump has to fight this case tooth and nail. Because if he does not, the Colorado courts’ finding that he engaged in insurrection will be res judicata and he will be estopped from litigating it in future cases.

    nk (bb1548)

  280. Anyway, the 14th Amendment was supposed to sunset with the end of Reconstruction, as were the 13th and 15th.

    Source?

    Rip Murdock (ee0cf7)

  281. @259

    BTW, I think that, should the CO ruling stand, that all GOP contenders will have to withdraw from the CO GOP primary and that the CO delegations will not be seated at the Convention.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/19/2023 @ 7:01 pm

    Nah. That’s the wrong tactic.

    As it stands, it seems that courts can decide to make a person de facto guilty of a crime in order to justify a ruling they want to make.

    That’s the precedent.

    Time for GOP states and conservative judges to lean into this.

    Joe Biden signed off in acquiesced just about everything to Iran which can be argued as giving “aid and comfort” to our enemy.

    Hey… I don’t make the rules.

    whembly (5f7596)

  282. nk (bb1548) — 12/20/2023 @ 6:38 am

    Oh, nk! You are on fire today*. Go, man, go.

    * you may think nothing of your efforts, but that just means you possess humility.

    felipe (79693d)

  283. Hey… I don’t make the rules.
    whembly (5f7596) — 12/20/2023 @ 6:59 am

    It’s how the rules are interpreted and applied, one way for me, another for you, naturally. No need for gold, but it doesn’t hurt.

    felipe (79693d)

  284. Joe Biden is not going to run unopposed.

    If a disaulification is decided after an election – and it is not clear who would decide – all that that means is that his vice ppresident becomes president. There will be no civil war if his vice president is proclaimed president,

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  285. Trump did not want, or encourage, the storming of the Capitol. Preventing Congress from certifying the election, if it continued to January 20, would have made House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Acting President. Trump wanted to delay the certification, because he was being told by Giuliani, who was being told that by assorted crackpots and liars, that states could and would change their Electoral vote. He had Parliamentary plans to do delay things by at least one day, which everyone knew about and which the Jan 6 committee almost totally ignored, and his main concern after the riot started, was that it would disrupt his plans – and that’s why he called Senator Tommy Tuberville. He also did not want the people to go home – he wanted them to follow his instructions, which they were not doing. The Jan 6 committee proved with Cassif=dy Hutchinson”s testimony that Donald Trump wanted to go to the Capitol, sand that disproves that he wanted or expected the riot,

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  286. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/what-have-they-done/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=right-rail&utm_content=corner&utm_term=first

    Noah, a #NeverTrumper himself, has this to say:

    When the Supreme Court overturns Colorado’s verdict, it will hand Trump the most indisputable evidence in favor of a claim he and his supporters have long argued. It will confirm that Trump was the victim of political persecution. Americans of good faith who have argued (myself included) that Trump brought his legal troubles down upon himself will have to concede at least some of that premise to the former president’s defenders.

    By then, however, all the perverse incentives this decision is likely to inspire will have had their predictable effect. Republican voters will rally around the president and defend him as they would defend their own individual autonomy. That is, after all, what is in the balance. Republican elected officials — including his presidential-candidate rivals — will echo their voters’ concerns. The prudential arguments against nominating Trump to the presidency for a third time will be drowned out by equally weighty prudential concerns around giving a handful of robes a veto over a political party’s candidate-selection prerogatives.

    He’s not wrong.

    Still pisses me off…

    whembly (5f7596)

  287. If the Colorado ruling stands, the Colorado primary will be ignored by the Republican Party, and replaced with a caucus.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  288. @290

    If the Colorado ruling stands, the Colorado primary will be ignored by the Republican Party, and replaced with a caucus.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 12/20/2023 @ 7:59 am

    Except, that CO ruling also kicks Trump out of the General Election too.

    whembly (5f7596)

  289. After Trump ends up elected don’t be surprised if these judges declare Colorado to secede and Trump to declare them in a state of rebellion.

    NJRob (264783)

  290. @289, Trump may or may not have committed insurrection, but he did likely commit other crimes surrounding J6 as charged by Jack Smith (who is not exactly a partisan Democrat or Joe Biden tool). This is part of the problem with this ruling is that it puts the cart before the horse, I think to compel the Supreme Court to provide clarity.

    Right now everyone is opining on what they want Section 3 of the 14A to mean, and specifically how much due process needs to be afforded up front of a state’s determination of ineligibility. Also, we have state courts determining what does or does not constitute an insurrection vis a vis the US Constitution without much federal guidance and without much attention to Trump’s defense and cross examination.

    The other element of this that bothers me is: does the fake elector scheme truly qualify as insurrection versus fraud or conspiracy (and the obvious impeachable offense that it was)? In the end, the supreme court would have likely ruled that the scheme was an unconstitutional read of the Electoral Count Act and Biden would have been awarded the election. The Capitol riot was used to buy time to attempt the fake elector scheme. But like a Biden questionable Executive Order, the fake elector scheme always had the backdrop of Court sanction to shut it down. An insurrection to my mind would require something extra-judicial like an assassination or military takeover. Had Trump used the Insurrection Act and martial law to disregard the SC ruling, then you have an unambiguous insurrection.

    But this only matters for this 14A silliness. There’s no way that nk is right and the Court ignore this for ripeness. There is a major federal issue at play with voter’s rights at play…and with other states watching closely. Rip is likely right that there will be a quick opinion to keep Trump on the ballot followed by arguments down the road. How far down the road? the farther down the road helps Trump…as he will likely win and then can use that win to mitigate other bad news. I would hope that we would see something before March.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  291. I think the strongest argument that the 14th Amendment does cover Trump’s actions (post election to J6) as an “insurrection” without an actual trial is that during the Civil War era, the secessionists were obviously disqualified even though they never faced an “insurrectionist” trial.

    The weakest point in that argument, imo, is that the obvious originalist interpretation was that the 14th was specifically a reaction to actual insurrection conduct of the Civil War. It’s beyond a stretch to consider what transpired up to J6 “as the same as” insurrectionists in the Civil War.

    However, look for SCOTUS to avoid weighing in whether or not Trump’s behavior is “insurrectiony” and rule on legal technicalities.

    whembly (5f7596)

  292. The U.S. Supreme Court has no jurisdiction to review the decision of the Colorado court.

    Ripeness.

    I’m of two minds about this. First, of course, is the unique place that presidential elections occupy in the constitutional framework — a federal office but elected entirely in the several states, with great deference to the rules of those states.

    However, the 14th Amendment would appear to override the original separation of jurisdictions (although the arguable absence of the President & VP from the provision might be related to the previous paragraph).

    Of the issues the CO Court decided, two things stand out as federal issues: what crimes are covered by the amendment alone (and do several disqualifications in statutes reflect the amendment)? And what proof/process is required?

    I think that the first question is answered by “The states decide” but the second is much grayer.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  293. Anyway, the 14th Amendment was supposed to sunset with the end of Reconstruction, as were the 13th and 15th.

    So, we can have slavery now? Really, where do you get this?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  294. Since the CO Supreme Court has stayed its decision until Jan. 4th (and would remain in place in the event of a US Supreme Court appeal), it is very likely that Trump will appear on the Colorado primary ballot. The CO Secretary of State has said that a decision needs to be made by January 5th, as that is the deadline to certify candidates for the March 5th primary.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  295. Trump did not want, or encourage, the storming of the Capitol.

    Really, where do you get this? The magic Sammy mind-reader act?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  296. “However, look for SCOTUS to avoid weighing in whether or not Trump’s behavior is “insurrectiony” and rule on legal technicalities.”

    I tend to agree that they will not consider the factual determination of insurrection and will focus instead on due process. One would hope that Republicans would acknowledge Trump’s baggage and move on. I think the party that moves on first will gain considerable kudos by independents and persuadables. I know it’s wishcasting, but there’s still a chance to disembark the chaos train.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  297. it is very likely that Trump will appear on the Colorado primary ballot.

    Yes, it does seem to be mostly “counting coup.”

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  298. What I find most disturbing about Trump’s continued support is that so many Americans are embracing chaos. That shows a level of disaffection that is astonishing. When people who say that “anything is better than this” can decide elections it means that something has gone terribly wrong and TPTB are not acting to correct it.

    We can say that all this is wrong, that the Republic is teetering, but there are causes and conditions for it. The unwillingness of the administration to treat the southern border problem in any meaningful way is probably the main catalyst. That they would throw over several national interests so that the mass influx at the border could continue suggests malice and design more than incompetence.

    They may well reap the whirlwind.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  299. Here is a possible argument for why the Amendment seems to exclude the President (and VP): they recognized that the presidential election was not federal, so imposing a disqualification at the federal level was awkward.

    HOWEVER, the flip side of that would be that the States would be empowered to make the same disqualification in their election process. Certainly, the States could bar such electors who had violated their oaths, and I see no reason that they could not impose a similar disqualification, under their rules, on candidates for these offices on their ballot.

    In that regard, perhaps there IS no federal issue, other than some due process concern, but even then some deference is due to the states.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  300. @301, except you don’t need Trump to fix the border. DeSantis, Haley, Christie will all act without uttering such foolishness as “poisoning the blood of our country”. People around Trump have a weird Orban obsession. They really are up to no good. Trump could just focus on doing a better job than Bide. he just can’t help himself. He conveys that he has dictator aspirations. Why not just believe him?

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  301. it is very likely that Trump will appear on the Colorado primary ballot.

    Yes, it does seem to be mostly “counting coup.”

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/20/2023 @ 9:43 am

    More like political theater.

    1. CO Supreme Court stays decision until Jan. 4th, or beyond if Trump appeals to US Supreme Court.
    2. Trump appeals to US SC.
    3. CO Secretary of State includes Trump on primary ballot by state deadline (Jan. 5th).
    4. US SC declares case moot since Trump is on the Colorado ballot.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  302. Counting coup is the original of political theater.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  303. “[T]ouching an enemy warrior with a hand, bow, or coup stick and escaping unharmed, and without harming the enemy, except for the enemy’s wounded pride.”

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  304. US SC declares case moot since Trump is on the Colorado ballot.

    This assumes that it will only be Colorado.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  305. “[T]ouching an enemy warrior with a hand, bow, or coup stick and escaping unharmed, and without harming the enemy, except for the enemy’s wounded pride.”

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/20/2023 @ 10:41 am

    I got the reference.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  306. Will the U.S. Supreme Court Keep Donald Trump Off the Ballot ? Some Initial Thoughts
    ………
    My bottom line is that the Colorado opinion is a serious and careful opinion that reaches a reasonable conclusion that Trump is disqualified. Nonetheless the opinion reaches many novel legal issues that the U.S. Supreme Court could decide the other way should that court reach the merits. (The three dissenters on the Colorado court did not really reach the merits.) Trump would need to prevail on only one of these legal issues to win on any appeal, so in some ways the legal odds are with him.

    It is far from clear that the U.S. Supreme Court will reach the merits—there are many legal doctrines like ripeness and mootness that would give the Court a way to avoid deciding the issues in the case. But it is imperative for the political stability of the U.S. to get a definitive judicial resolution of these questions as soon as possible. ……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  307. Rick Hasen is a left-leaning scholar whose opinions are predictable from a partisan point of view. I have never been surprised by anything he’s said.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  308. The three dissenters on the Colorado court did not really reach the merits.

    Only one reached federal issues: Due process. Lack of due process isn’t a technicality.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  309. I think that, to disqualify, a federal conviction on a relevant change is needed. I don’t think that “conspiracy to defraud” is enough, even at the level of suborning false electoral votes.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  310. I doubt the Court will rule that Trump was denied “due process.” The due process clause of the 14th Amendment only applies when the government deprives someone of “life, liberty, or property,” none of which applies here.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  311. @313: I read that Ilya Somin believes that, but even he notes that federal courts have expanded that to other things, like denying welfare benefits. His argument involving the the 22nd Amendment is weak, as a statute that made the same restriction would fail.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  312. We’ll see.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  313. For a running play by play, go see https://ballot-access.org/

    Richard Winger is the go-to expert on ballot access issues.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  314. The CO GOP has said that they will caucus to pick their delegates if Trump is not allowed on the ballot.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  315. Colorado GOP Say They Will Cancel Primary if Donald Trump Isn’t on Ballot

    The Colorado Republican Party may withdraw from the 2024 presidential primary in protest of the state’s Supreme Court saying Donald Trump is disqualified from running for president again for allegedly engaging in an insurrection on January 6.

    Dave Williams, chairman of the Colorado Republican Party, said the state could instead have a caucus, instead of an open voting primary process, to decide who Colorado picks as the GOP nomination in 2024 while vowing to appeal the historic ruling.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  316. Trump will be on NC ballots for 2024 primary after elections officials dismiss complaint

    Former President Donald Trump will be allowed to appear on the ballot in North Carolina during the 2024 primary elections, state elections officials decided Tuesday, a boost for the Republican’s reelection effort.

    The State Board of Elections, made up of political appointees of three Democrats and two Republicans, voted 4-1 to dismiss a complaint by a retired federal government lawyer in Stokes County seeking to disqualify Trump from running for office.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  317. More:

    The board members noted that they weren’t necessarily ruling that Trump can be on the ballot for the general election in North Carolina. If he wins the GOP nomination, board members said during Tuesday’s meeting, there could be another challenge filed seeking to keep him from running then. They just don’t believe they have the legal authority to keep him — or anyone else given the green light by their political party — from appearing on the primary ballot.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  318. Dumbest headline attacking the Colorado Supreme Court. So did eight of the current US Supreme Court Justices.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  319. Ninth Circuit Refuses to Expedite Arizona Case Over Former President Donald Trump’s Ballot Access

    On December 12, the Ninth Circuit refused to expedite Castro v Fontes, 23-3960. This is the case filed by John Anthony Castro to keep former President Donald Trump off the Arizona Republican presidential primary ballot. The state’s brief, along with Trump’s brief, will be due March 28, 2024, which is after the Arizona presidential primaries.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  320. So did eight of the current US Supreme Court Justices.

    And 5 of the 6 conservatives. I guess those 5 will be all wokey going forward.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  321. 318. As I said.

    It was obvious if you know the rules.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  322. whembly (5f7596) — 12/20/2023 @ 8:04 am

    Except, that CO ruling also kicks Trump out of the General Election too.

    The only issue there is what does state law actually say, as a state can choose electors any which way it wants. In 1876, the year Colorado was admitted as a state, the Colorado state legislature chose its electors.

    I still don’t know what was the basis in state law for the Colorado ruling. States can pass their own primary election laws, but national political parties are free to ignore them. The Supreme Court ruled so in 1972, when Jesse Jackson got his slate of delegates pledged to McGovern seated by the convention even though Mayor Daley’s slate had won the primary election. The Republican Party later adopted rules that bound them by state law (as a default at least) The Democrats ignored rules like winner take all.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  323. #304 Rip predicts:

    1. CO Supreme Court stays decision until Jan. 4th, or beyond if Trump appeals to US Supreme Court.
    2. Trump appeals to US SC.
    3. CO Secretary of State includes Trump on primary ballot by state deadline (Jan. 5th).
    4. US SC declares case moot since Trump is on the Colorado ballot.

    That still leaves the general election. I liked your earlier prediction better — the court hears the case in June after full briefing. That’s a real possibility. That allows other states to get in on the action.

    Personally, I would like the Supremes to complain about due process (since Trump has not been convicted of any crime stemming from 1/6) and overrule Colorado, while upholding the idea that states do have the general ability to determine whether Constitutonal mandated eligibility requirements are met (such as age 35 or the natural born citizen requirement). I’ll leave the lawyers to argue if that is a Constitutional solution.

    Appalled (03f53c)

  324. Saw this interesting factoid:

    Jason Willick @jawillick
    What predicts Colorado Supreme Court justices’ vote on Trump disqualification? Not party–all are Democratic appointees–but law school. All Ivy League grads voted to disqualify. All Denver Law grads voted not to disqualify.

    whembly (5f7596)

  325. 327:

    Dersh is dishing out the “President” is not an officer line. I don’t buy it.

    Appalled (03f53c)

  326. whembly (5f7596) — 12/20/2023 @ 12:51 pm

    As are eight of the nine US SC justices, and as Kevin M pointed out of above, 5 of the 6 conservatives (Barrett went Notre Dame). Doesn’t mean anything.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  327. It’s only interesting because they’re ALL Democrats.

    The other thing, the 4-3 decision isn’t a strong 4-3 decision. It’s very soft as the fours had different rationale.

    whembly (5f7596)

  328. State level justices who go out of state for their legal education is the same as Federal level justices who do not go out of the country for their legal education.

    Who would have known?

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  329. whembly (5f7596) — 12/20/2023 @ 1:19 pm

    The quote you cited explicitly states that it wasn’t their party affiliation, but their laws schools that distinguished them.

    Not party–all are Democratic appointees–but law school. All Ivy League grads voted to disqualify.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  330. Leftists come up with novel theories to disqualify their political opponents. Seen in garbage third world dictatorships the world over.

    NJRob (264783)

  331. @333 whembly (5f7596) — 12/20/2023 @ 1:19 pm

    The quote you cited explicitly states that it wasn’t their party affiliation, but their laws schools that distinguished them.

    Not party–all are Democratic appointees–but law school. All Ivy League grads voted to disqualify.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/20/2023 @ 1:24 pm
    Right, and I find that interesting.

    whembly (5f7596)

  332. @334

    Leftists come up with novel theories to disqualify their political opponents. Seen in garbage third world dictatorships the world over.

    NJRob (264783) — 12/20/2023 @ 1:26 pm

    Righties need to do the same to Biden.

    Embrace the chaos my dude.

    Chaos is the game… not the one I wanted to play… but, I will be damned if I don’t advocate that we win this game.

    whembly (5f7596)

  333. Here’s an extensive discussion by Baude at The Dispatch. His discussion of “officer” is especially detailed

    https://thedispatch.com/article/where-do-you-cross-the-line-from-bush-v-gore-to-coup-detat/

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  334. “Righties need to do the same to Biden.”

    Or more Righties need to come to grips that Trump orchestrating a riot to delay the electoral vote count so they could continue to pressure Pence to initiate the rejection of some electoral votes for specious reasons should have caused his impeachment and removal. There should be no Trump campaign right now. The GOP is aiding and abetting a criminal right now. Stop what-abouting and clean your house. There are good candidates. Encourage Republicans to drop Trump. Trump created this mess. Stop trying to bail him out.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  335. @334 States rights! Conservatives not leftists came up with it. You against states rights? Or states rights only when you want to oppress minorities.

    asset (21a17d)

  336. @338

    “Righties need to do the same to Biden.”

    Or more Righties need to come to grips that Trump orchestrating a riot to delay the electoral vote count so they could continue to pressure Pence to initiate the rejection of some electoral votes for specious reasons should have caused his impeachment and removal. There should be no Trump campaign right now. The GOP is aiding and abetting a criminal right now. Stop what-abouting and clean your house. There are good candidates. Encourage Republicans to drop Trump. Trump created this mess. Stop trying to bail him out.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74) — 12/20/2023 @ 1:47 pm

    I agree we should try to drop Trump.

    But, the new norms must be applied equally.

    Righties need to kick off Biden for his “aid and abetting”.

    whembly (5f7596)

  337. AJ_Liberty (ec7f74) — 12/20/2023 @ 1:47 pm

    Trump orchestrating a riot to delay the electoral vote count

    That’s not the way Trump wanted to delay the Electoral vote count. He wanted to delay it by having at least one Senator (he had more than one House member) object to the 6 different Electoral votes (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan. Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) which would cause a 2 hour debate for each of them

    so they could continue to pressure Pence

    Pence was a different idea. Here, Senator Ted Cruz suggested a 10-day delay – and to win Congress would have to get other electoral votes and uphold them. \The storming of the Capitol was an act of revenge. if anything, since it happened after Pence had already declined to do that.

    Pence was the only hope to buy a few days, but a riot could only buy hours.

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  338. whembly (5f7596) — 12/20/2023 @ 1:19 pm

    the fours had different rationale.

    I thought it was the three dissenters who had different rationales.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/trump-colorado-ballot-14th-amendment.html

    The three justices who dissented did so on procedural grounds, not on the merits of whether Mr. Trump engaged in insurrection or whether Section 3 applies to the presidency. In three separate dissenting opinions, each based on different legal arguments, they all concluded that the court had overstepped its authority.

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  339. Trump did not want, or encourage, the storming of the Capitol.

    Really, where do you get this? The magic Sammy mind-reader act?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/20/2023 @ 9:42 am

    It’s inconsistent with him wanting to go the Capitol himself.

    At the time of the second impeachment they were sayin that Trump lied to the crowd abou going there, but the Jan 6 committee was so gleeful to get original information that they called special attention to the testimony of Cassidy Hutchinson about Trump wanting so much to be there that he grabbed the steering wheel – he did not but he definitely wanted to go there

    The people who got the permit for the rally lied to the National Park Service about there being no march, by the ay.

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  340. Trump wanted to address a second rally at the Capitol and then go into the Republican leader’s offices to lobby personally for them to reject the electorl votes.

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  341. @340, Biden is not aiding and abetting an insurrection. He is also not engaged in treasonous activities. If he was, you impeach him and convict him. If you want to impeach him for influence peddling but don’t have evidence, you’re shooting yourself in the foot. I get it. Other Righties will applaud you, but you hemorrhage everyone else. Biden does not equal Trump. I know this bothers you. Biden may be unfit in other ways. I wish he would withdraw from 2024. It’s hubris, but he hasn’t disqualified himself yet. Trump has. Trump must go.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  342. Link to PDF of the Colordo Supreme Court decision.

    You need older versions of Windows or maybe Google Chrome to get this

    https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/9927fc28f3500b61/96292b55-full.pdf

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  343. Invoking provisions of Colorado’s Uniform Election Code of 1992,
    1-1-101to 1-13-804,C.R.S. (2023) (the “Election Code”),the Electors requested that the district court prohibit Jena Griswold,inher official capacity as Colorado’s Secretary of State ( the Secretary ),from placing President Trump’s name on the
    presidential primary ballot.

    Nw the question is, what does Colorado\s election code of 1993 say?

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  344. Conservatives are supposed to be for states rights. OK got it just when oppressing minorities and women. Mighty white of you!

    asset (21a17d)

  345. No, asset, we just aren’t as superficial as you pretend to be.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  346. The “dersh” has issues

    He’s had issues for quite some time now.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  347. His discussion of “officer” is especially detailed

    Hair-splitting obfuscation. The only real difference is how those officers are elected or appointed, and the P & VP are in a class by themselves. At best it is a question for the individual states to decide when selecting Electors.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  348. The three justices who dissented did so on procedural grounds, not on the merits of whether Mr. Trump engaged in insurrection

    This is, at best, a half-truth. One of the dissenters viewed the way the lower court found Trump’s “guilt” to be unacceptable, so it throwing out the finding of guilt he reaches the merits.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  349. Other Righties will applaud you, but you hemorrhage everyone else.

    You ever been in a debate where an idiot takes your side? It’s like that.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  350. The “dersh” has issues

    He’s had issues for quite some time now.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/20/2023 @ 4:43 pm

    It’s gonna be interesting what the Epstein files will say about the Dersh (beyond his denials) when they are released in a couple of weeks.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  351. Ouch!

    ………
    Following a week-long trial, a federal jury last week ordered Giuliani to pay nearly $150 million to (Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss) for defaming them with false accusations that they committed election fraud while counting ballots in Georgia’s Fulton County on Election Day in 2020.
    ………
    Freeman and Moss subsequently asked the judge to “permit immediate enforcement” of the judgment out of concern that the former New York City mayor could attempt to “find a way to dissipate [his] assets before plaintiffs are able to recover.”

    Judge Beryl Howell agreed Wednesday that Giuliani’s record as an “unwilling and uncooperative litigant” provides the plaintiffs “good cause to believe that he will seek to dissipate or conceal his assets” before paying them.
    ……..
    If Giuliani intends to appeal the judgment, which he has indicated he plans to do, he “would have to comply with the usual requirement of a full supersedeas bond,” Howell wrote, meaning that he may have to post a bond in the full amount of the judgment, Howell said.
    #########

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  352. Rip Murdock (ee0cf7) — 12/16/2023 @ 5:19 pm

    Judge Allows Removal of Arlington Cemetery Confederate Monument to Proceed
    ……….
    U.S. District Judge Rossie D. Alston Jr., of the Eastern District of Virginia, issued a temporary injunction on Monday to pause the memorial’s removal after a group called Defend Arlington filed suit Sunday alleging that gravesites adjacent to the memorial were being desecrated as contractors began work to remove the large bronze sculpture.
    ……….
    Before Tuesday’s hearing, however, Judge Alston said he toured the site and saw the graves being treated respectfully.

    “I saw no desecration of any graves,” Alston said. “The grass wasn’t even disturbed.”

    Judge Alston issued an 18-page opinion Tuesday evening that lifted Monday’s injunction. He said the allegations that the removal efforts amounted to grave desecration “were, at best, ill-informed and, at worst, inaccurate.”
    ……….
    While Tuesday’s hearing focused largely on particular laws surrounding grave desecration, Judge Alston questioned the lawyers representing Defend Arlington about their claim that the memorial promotes reconciliation.

    Judge Alston, an African American who was appointed to the bench in 2019 by former president Donald Trump, noted that the statue depicts, among other things, a “slave running after his ‘massa’ as he walks down the road. What is reconciling about that?”
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  353. After what happened to texas woman only 26% of americans agree with texas abortion ban in latest yahoo poll giving republicans running in 2024 a post natal abortion. Clarence thomas threatened to resign if he wasn’t paid more money in 2000 so he was allowed to grift from in rich friends instead by republicans on supreme court.

    asset (38ca01)

  354. California’s gun venue ban struck down.

    A new California law that would bar licensed gun holders from carrying their firearms into an array of public places will not go into full effect on Jan. 1 as scheduled, after a federal judge blocked major parts of it as unconstitutional Wednesday…

    In his decision to block the law Wednesday, U.S. District Judge Cormac J. Carney wrote that the law’s “coverage is sweeping, repugnant to the Second Amendment, and openly defiant of the Supreme Court.”

    The law would have precluded licensed gun carriers from having their firearms on public transportation, at public gatherings and special events, in parks and at playgrounds, in stadiums, arenas and casinos, in medical facilities, religious institutions or financial institutions, anywhere that liquor is sold and consumed, in all other private commercial spaces where the owner has not explicitly posted a sign to the contrary, and in many parking areas, among other places.

    Democrats had championed the law as a workaround to the Supreme Court’s decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Assn. vs. Bruen last year, which held that sweeping restrictions on licensed gun holders to carry their weapons in public were unconstitutional, in part because they stripped those people of their constitutional right to self-defense.

    The Bruen decision made certain exceptions, including for bans on guns in certain “sensitive places” that historically had been protected from gun holders — such as in schools and courtrooms. State Sen. Anthony Portantino (D-Burbank) introduced SB 2 as a means of extending the list of “sensitive places” under California law.

    The law was to apply to concealed-carry permit holders in major metropolitan centers such as Los Angeles but also to open-carry permit holders in rural, less populated parts of the state.

    Pretending to accept Bruen, California made their carry law more illiberal, extending over-the-top controls to counties that already were shall-issue. You could have a carry permit, but you would probably be committing a felony by actually carrying it.

    I suspect that police officers attempting to enforce laws of this sort will find they don’t have qualified immunity.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  355. gain,

    The law would have precluded licensed gun carriers from having their firearms on public transportation, at public gatherings and special events, in parks and at playgrounds, in stadiums, arenas and casinos, in medical facilities, religious institutions or financial institutions, anywhere that liquor is sold and consumed, in all other private commercial spaces where the owner has not explicitly posted a sign to the contrary, and in many parking areas, among other places.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  356. Really this is not much different than Mississippi laws regulating school attendance after Brown.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  357. “Righties need to do the same to Biden.”

    Or more Righties need to come to grips that Trump orchestrating a riot to delay the electoral vote count so they could continue to pressure Pence to initiate the rejection of some electoral votes for specious reasons should have caused his impeachment and removal. There should be no Trump campaign right now. The GOP is aiding and abetting a criminal right now. Stop what-abouting and clean your house. There are good candidates. Encourage Republicans to drop Trump. Trump created this mess. Stop trying to bail him out.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74) — 12/20/2023 @ 1:47 pm

    As Orin Kerr put it:

    We can debate whether Trump is disqualified from office under the 14th Amendment. But it is bananas that one party seems set to nominate someone about whom it is a genuine question whether his past conduct amounts to “insurrection or rebellion” against the United States.

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  358. Leftists come up with novel theories to disqualify their political opponents. Seen in garbage third world dictatorships the world over.

    NJRob (264783) — 12/20/2023 @ 1:26 pm

    I take you at your word that you consider Baude, Paulsen and Luttig leftists.

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  359. 14th amendment section 3 is clear. Not all confederate traitors were prosecute. Mosbey, forrest and jeff davis were ;but not many others. Some ran for office later after being pardoned in deals with republicans like 1876 fraud election. Remember the guy marching thru the capital carrying a confederate flag if that isn’t insurrection what is? Their leader who wanted to join them their was trump. Not officer? Besides president he is the militaries commander in chief an officer commanding the military.

    asset (38ca01)

  360. @345

    @340, Biden is not aiding and abetting an insurrection. He is also not engaged in treasonous activities. If he was, you impeach him and convict him. If you want to impeach him for influence peddling but don’t have evidence, you’re shooting yourself in the foot. I get it. Other Righties will applaud you, but you hemorrhage everyone else. Biden does not equal Trump. I know this bothers you. Biden may be unfit in other ways. I wish he would withdraw from 2024. It’s hubris, but he hasn’t disqualified himself yet. Trump has. Trump must go.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74) — 12/20/2023 @ 2:59 pm

    Nope. That’s not the standard.

    The standard is: Some judge can look at a candidate’s past behaviors and deem it as “give aid and comfort to our enemies”.

    You can argue that its the favorable policies with Iran.

    It can be argued that it’s his immigration policies constitute an invasion, since we’re stretching definitions here… “insurrection” to Trump, it’s fomenting an “invasion” to Biden.

    Before you jump in, lemme state that I agree with you. I don’t WISH this is the game.

    However, NOT playing the game is unacceptable.

    It’s time that the “other side” gets same medicine.

    Unfortunately, it’s going to take “Mom and Dad”, I mean… SCOTUS, to put an end to that. But the fact that we had to go to Mom and Dad is such a sad state we’re in.

    whembly (5f7596)

  361. t’s not that Trump committed insurrection – he didn’t and didn’t even incite the crowd to break the law – the problem with Trump is that he can’t be trusted ir counted on to uphold his oath of office. But this is not a real problem unless a lot of other people would violate their oaths.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  362. Trump is legitimately charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States, witness tampering, conspiracy against the rights of citizens, and obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding.

    It’s sad that it’s an open debate of whether he aided an insurrection and whether he qualifies via the 14A for disqualification. A rational party would not force such an unsavory choice on the country. The correct response is not to cry about the legal system being mean. It’s not to try and make it seem that Biden is somehow worse. There’s no political-exemption to the 9th commandment. Lying to enable a flawed candidate who may or may not give you some short-lived political victory…is still lying. Lying to create false equivalences is still lying.

    My party used to care about truth, about character, and about honor. Now it has an orange calf and we are obligated to play games for his amusement. That’s what’s sad.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  363. There’s an attempt in New York also to deny Donald Trump a spot on the election ballot. If the Democrats want Joe Biden to lose the election to another Republican that’s the thing to do, so maybe that’s something to hope for. Of course that other candidate would also have to carry some red or swing states.

    And we could have controversy if the chosen electors vote for anyone other than whom their pledged to

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  364. The first question is: What does Colorado law actually say about eligibility to be on the ballot?

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  365. The last line was mine. The linked title is the only quote from The Volokh Conspiracy.

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  366. #369 —

    I wonder why Trump has not made that argument. He has had ample time.

    Appalled (46d177)

  367. #372 —

    The amicus brief is here:

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/293864/20231220140217967_US%20v.%20Trump%20amicus%20final.pdf

    I didn’t realize Ed Meese was still alive

    Appalled (46d177)

  368. That’s an interesting argument BuDuh. Thanks for linking.

    Nate (1f1d55)

  369. @371

    #369 —

    I wonder why Trump has not made that argument. He has had ample time.

    Appalled (46d177) — 12/21/2023 @ 7:54 am

    I can’t find it at the moment, but early on this was brought up some of Trump’s initial lawyers.

    I think it’s a compelling argument, and if SCOTUS doesn’t want to be deemed too political, like rendering a verdict whether or not Trump’s action/non-action fits within the purview of the 14th Amendment exclusion clause… they could pick this up and render Smith’s appointment invalid.

    Here’s the thing guys. What makes you think that whenever the Whitehouse changes party, the political pressure wouldn’t be there to nominate a special counsel like this, and pick someone who’s a partisan bulldog, that didn’t follow the typical POTUS nominate/Senate approve process?

    whembly (5f7596)

  370. I do tire of the technicalities everyone seems to want to surface, like this is a bad episode of Perry Mason and Trump is as innocent as St Francis of Assisi. Here is the tl;dr of the amicus brief:

    Not clothed in the authority of the federal government, Smith is a modern example of the naked emperor. Improperly appointed, he has no more authority to represent the United States in this Court than Bryce Harper, Taylor Swift, or Jeff Bezos. That fact is sufficient to sink Smith’s petition, and the Court should deny review. We express no views on the merits issues addressed in Smith’s unauthorized petition.

    Appalled (46d177)

  371. I hope word doesn’t get out, but I’m afraid it will. All across the country, federal magistrates will be getting petitions, handwritten with pencil on lined paper, claiming that their convictions are illegitimate because the AUSA’s who prosecuted them were not appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate.

    nk (d58a99)

  372. will be getting petitions *from federal prisoners*

    nk (d58a99)

  373. @376

    I hope word doesn’t get out, but I’m afraid it will. All across the country, federal magistrates will be getting petitions, handwritten with pencil on lined paper, claiming that their convictions are illegitimate because the AUSA’s who prosecuted them were not appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate.

    nk (d58a99) — 12/21/2023 @ 8:13 am

    That’s… not what the amici brief argued.

    The AUSA works with a legit, currently appointed US Attorney.

    Jack Smith was a private citizen when Garland tapped him.

    I think it’s a strong argument.

    IF SCOTUS rules/ignores this, then the next SCOTUS will tap a firebrand private lawyer (ie, Kurt Schlicter?) as independent counsel, with more power than the other regularly nominated-Senate affirmed US Attorneys.

    We sure we want this?

    whembly (5f7596)

  374. should be… “then the next POTUS…”

    whembly (5f7596)

  375. Really, here are the inspiring arguments we will be having over what Colorado did:

    Is the President really a public officer of the United States?

    Must Congress implement by legislation the XIVth amendment for it really to work?

    Is Jack Smith really a prosecuting attorney?

    All of this is the super-annoying nonsense we expect of lawyers who want to make sure Justice doesn’t come anywhere near their client.

    I get that the Supreme Court is unlikely to determine whether Trump participated in an insurrection. That’s not really their job. The easiest way to brush this asise is to use another provisiion of the XIVth is to hold that, since Trump has not been convicted of anything that resembles an insurrection, the Colorado court’s process in finding an insurrection happened denied Trump of his right to run for President without due process.

    Appalled (46d177)

  376. I take you at your word that you consider Baude, Paulsen and Luttig leftists.

    Romney and Cheney are leftists now, too.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  377. @366: Amen!

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  378. All of this is the super-annoying nonsense we expect of lawyers who want to make sure Justice doesn’t come anywhere near their client.

    Hair-splitting and pettifogging. Reminds me of the Rabbinical debate over whether it is Kosher to use a cell phone while peeing, referencing 5000 year-old scripture.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  379. The easiest way to brush this asise is to use another provisiion of the XIVth is to hold that, since Trump has not been convicted of anything that resembles an insurrection, the Colorado court’s process in finding an insurrection happened denied Trump of his right to run for President without due process.

    “Due Process” is not involved in this case. Trump is not being denied “life, liberty, or property.”

    Disqualification under Section 3 doesn’t threaten any of these. Loss of eligibility for holding various types of public offices pretty obviously doesn’t threaten anyone’s life or property rights. And it isn’t a threat to liberty, either. No one claims that the Twenty-Second Amendment deprives people of “liberty” merely because they become ineligible for the presidency if they have already served two terms.

    The Supreme Court has held…….that a degree of constitutional due process is required for deprivation of some types government benefits, particularly those that provide essential needs, such as welfare benefits for the poor.

    Eligibility for the presidency isn’t an essential need in the same way. If Trump is no longer eligible for the presidency, he isn’t going to starve or become homeless. And even when it comes to deprivation of vital welfare benefits for the poor, the Supreme Court has held that due process requires only an administrative hearing, not a “judicial or quasi-judicial trial.” The five-day trial held by the district court in the Colorado case in which both sides presented extensive evidence and expert testimony easily meets any plausible due process requirements for a case like this, even if we assume that the Due Process Clause applies……..

    Source

    That being said, (as I said above), I expect the Supreme Court to issue a short, unsigned per curiam opinion staying the Colorado SC decision (since Colorado law imposes a January 5th deadline to certify candidates for the March 5th primary); followed by arguments heard in June. Since this will be a case of first impression, I don’t think the Supreme Court will reach the merits immediately.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  380. buduh: “Special Counsel Jack Smith’s Appointment Is Unconstitutional”

    This would be explosive if it was factual. Unfortunately it looks like someone who didn’t do their due diligence, mucked things up, and memorialized it with a rambling blog post.

    From the comments

    “Special Prosecutor who issued and sought to enforce the subpoena in U.S. v. Nixon was appointed under 28 U.S.C. sections 509, 510, 515, and 533, the very same statutes under which Smith was appointed. And the Supreme Court explicitly noted and approved the powers of the Special Prosecutor pursuant to that appointment.”

    That is pretty much game, set, and match. Calabresi is certainly not pro-Trump but is clearly anti-anti-Trump which gets him caught up in the fever of that pack. He recently declared Biden senile which should lead to a very fast and definitive impeachment…except…you know….he’s not senile. So it’s just name-calling like the master name-caller. It continues to amaze me how people with reputations continue to beclown themselves in service to Trump. Just…stop.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  381. Try to fire a federal worker without due process.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  382. Biden Administration Exchanges More Prisoners

    Ten Americans and a fugitive wanted by U.S. authorities have been released from Venezuelan custody in exchange for the U.S. release of a close ally of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, senior administration officials confirmed.

    As part of the deal, Venezuela returned escaped convict Leonard Francis to U.S. custody. Francis, nicknamed “Fat Leonard,” fled to Venezuela in 2022 while he was under house arrest in San Diego after pleading guilty to bribing high-ranking Navy officers.

    The prisoner swap took place Wednesday in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, a southern Caribbean island nation.
    ………..
    Americans Eyvin Hernandez, Jerrel Kenemore, Joseph Cristella, Savoi Wright, Jason Saad and Edgar Jose Marval Moreno landed at Kelly Field, which is part of Joint Base San Antonio, around 8 p.m. local time Wednesday.
    ………..
    Hernandez briefly described his approximately 20-month incarceration, saying he was held in one of several “concrete cells” in the “garage” of the headquarters of Venezuela’s intelligence agency, the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service.
    ………..
    Four other Americans were being flown to Miami. That group included former Green Berets Luke Denman and Airan Berry, who were accused of attempting to overthrow the Maduro government in 2020.

    As for Francis, Tara McGrath, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of California, said, “Now that Mr. Francis is back in U.S. custody, we look forward to his return to the Southern District of California where he will be held accountable for his crimes.”
    ………..
    The Maduro ally, Colombia-born Alex Nain Saab Morán, was charged in Florida in 2019 for money laundering and was arrested in 2020 in the Republic of Cabo Verde (formerly known as Cape Verde) while en route to Iran. Saab was extradited to the U.S. the next year to face criminal prosecution. He pleaded not guilty, and his attorneys have since been trying to get his case dismissed by claiming diplomatic immunity.
    ………..

    Unlike the prisoners released by Israel, I don’t expect the released Americans to become future terrorists.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  383. Try to fire a federal worker without due process.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/21/2023 @ 9:51 am

    A. Not comparable to the Trump Section 3 litigation.

    B. Federal workers have rights granted under civil service laws and regulations.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  384. Due process, as it exists:

    Manipulation of process tends to become easier as the amount at stake goes down. Trying to get rid of an inept federal employee, for example, is so difficult that most supervisors don’t try. According to a recent Government Accounting Office report, “it is not worth the time and effort for supervisors to pursue that course of action.… The easiest approach (and one proven successfully by other supervisors) [is] to ignore the problem and assign any essential work to other employees.”

    With extensive process always standing as a high wall between them and accountability, what people can get away with is pretty remarkable. For fourteen years, John Nesbit was an assistant United States attorney, and at the end of his service he was the chief of his unit. The head of his division had a secretary, call her Ms. Jones, whose “dedication to her work was nil.” The division head couldn’t take her anymore and took the low road: He reassigned her to his two unit chiefs, including Mr. Nesbit. They decided to tackle the problem head-on: She was told she had to come to work on time. She ignored them. They began keeping records on her absences. When her annual review came up, their comments called for a “serious downgrade” of her level of performance.

    Ms. Jones demanded an arbitration over her job review. She hired a lawyer. She also filed a discrimination claim. In the peculiar world of civil service, the supervisor has the burden of proving, in a formal hearing, that his judgment is valid. Several months later, after the hearing, Ms. Jones lost. As everyone in the office knew, Ms. Jones was not doing her job. The result? Ms. Jones got a lower than usual raise, the only penalty for a “serious downgrade.” No one had the authority to fire her; that would have taken years.

    A few months after the arbitration, Ms. Jones was assigned one afternoon to help a junior lawyer with an emergency application. An hour later, the lawyer walked by and noticed Ms. Jones, obviously on a social call, not doing the work. She reminded Ms. Jones that the job had to be done immediately. Ms. Jones stayed on the phone. A few minutes later Ms. Jones, an imposing figure, walked into the lawyer’s office and, shaking her finger in the lawyer’s face, said that if the lawyer ever interrupted her again, she was going to “kick her ass.” The lawyer, outraged, complained to the head of personnel, who recommended a warning. The lawyer, more outraged, demanded disciplinary action. The personnel office responded, under the procedures, by appointing an investigator and putting Ms. Jones on paid leave. By the time the investigator got around to looking into the incident, nine months had passed. The other members of the staff were furious: Misconduct gets you a paid vacation.

    During this period, another lawyer from the office was interviewing for a job at a law firm and ran into Ms. Jones. She was working somewhere else while the federal government investigated her conduct and paid her salary. Process rewards those who know its power.

    –Howard K Philips, The Death of Common Sense

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  385. A not unexpected view by Kevin Philips.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  386. The Section 3 disqualification imposes a serous penalty on an individual, and one that has national political ramifications. Unless we want to go the way of the Islamic Republic, where only ideologically-vetted candidates can run for office, there needs to be a high bar for invoking that particular penalty.

    While there seems to be a trend to ignore the 7th Amendment of late, classifying as much as possible into the administrative space (or at the state level to ignore the 7th entirely), ballot-access for office is probably worth more than the $20 suggested, even if inflation is considered. God knows that filing fees are much higher.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  387. A not unexpected view by Kevin Philips.

    Howard K Philips is not “Kevin Philips”, nor is he Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  388. A not unexpected view by Howard K. Phillips.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  389. Of course, I read it wrong, too, seeing it last name first.

    Philip K Howard. My bad.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  390. The Section 3 disqualification imposes a serous penalty on an individual, and one that has national political ramifications. …..

    While there seems to be a trend to ignore the 7th Amendment of late, classifying as much as possible into the administrative space (or at the state level to ignore the 7th entirely), ballot-access for office is probably worth more than the $20 suggested, even if inflation is considered. God knows that filing fees are much higher.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/21/2023 @ 10:08 am

    While that may be true, any “penalty” under the 14th Amendment, Sec. 3 doesn’t deprive an individual of “life, liberty, or property.” The Seventh Amendment has nothing to do with ballot access fees, and in any event it has not been incorporated against the states, though many state constitutions include the right to a jury trial for civil suits.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  391. There’s an attempt in New York also to deny Donald Trump a spot on the election ballot.

    Not only there.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  392. and in any event it has not been incorporated against the states

    An error which will be addressed some day.

    Your (and Professor Somin’s, whom you quote) on the textualist “life, liberty or property” is out of step with case law. Since Somin is a libertarian and libertarians view Principle as higher than Law, that’s perhaps understandable for him (ironically in defense of the state against the individual), but what’s your excuse?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  393. * The missing word is “focus”

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  394. Not only there

    Grassroots wildfire.

    Death of a thousand cuts.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  395. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/20/2023 @ 10:19 pm

    The California firearms venue decision is welcome, but more needs to be done. The overburdensome laws on firearms licensing and types of firearms need to be also completely overturned.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  396. Your (and Professor Somin’s, whom you quote) on the textualist “life, liberty or property” is out of step with case law. Since Somin is a libertarian and libertarians view Principle as higher than Law, that’s perhaps understandable for him (ironically in defense of the state against the individual), but what’s your excuse?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/21/2023 @ 10:25 am

    I agree with Prof. Somin’s due process argument (just as I disagree with his “President is an officer of the United States” position).

    What case law argues against his position? Is running for an elected office a property interest? How is a candidate being denied their life or liberty?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  397. https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump-hating-former-aide-trashes-incoherent-ballot-ban-tells-cnn-supreme-court-will-reverse/

    So many loved Bolton when it suited their NeverTrump political preferences. But you’ll remain silent here.

    NJRob (42d50f)

  398. That is pretty much game, set, and match.

    Yeah… sure.

    A bit from the amicus:

    At a more granular level, the effect of a loose reading of the statutes is even more bizarre. Congress, as noted earlier, has provided for the appointment, all with presidential nomination and senatorial consent, of a Deputy Attorney General, an Associate Attorney General, a Solicitor General, exactly eleven Assistant Attorneys General (plus an Assistant Attorney Gen- eral for Administration who is in the competitive ser- vice and is appointed by the Attorney General), and exactly one U.S. Attorney for each judicial district, of which there are currently ninety-four. A reading of §533 to create essentially unlimited inferior officer ap- pointment power in the Attorney General wreaks havoc on this structure. It would allow the Attorney General to appoint an entire shadow DOJ to replace the functions of every statutorily specified officer. No wonder the Reno Regulations did not invoke it.

    For reasons described in depth in Calabresi & Law- son, supra, this Court in United States v. Nixon, 418 U.S. 683 (1974), did not pass on the scope of §533. That decision contains some ill-considered dictum re- garding §533, see Nixon, 418 U.S. at 694–695, but it merits no weight.

    Anyone tempted to rely on Nixon should read the case briefs to see what issues were truly raised there. Those issues involved only the relationship between the President and DOJ as an insti- tution; the same arguments would have been raised if the Attorney General personally, rather than the in- dependent counsel, had brought the suit at issue there. See Calabresi & Lawson, supra, at 120–123. Moreover, Nixon was argued and decided before the modern rebirth of separation of powers, which dates from two years after Nixon in Buckley v. Valeo ̧ 424 U.S. 1 (1976) (per curiam).

    In short, the position supposedly held by Smith was not “established by Law.” The authority exercised by him as a so-called “Special Counsel” far exceeds the power exercisable by a mere employee. See Lucia, 138 S.Ct. at 2051–2052. He is acting as an officer, but aside from the specific offices listed in the statutes discussed above, there is no office that he can validly hold. That alone robs him of authority to represent the United States in any capacity, including before this Court

    Maybe SCOTUS can set up a comment section for the intrepid commenter from Volokh keyboard warrior gallery. Then he/she can get after the reasoning in the amicus prior to the quote above.

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  399. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/21/2023 @ 10:25 am

    I don’t think that the USSC will need to reach the (nonexistent) due process claim. I predict the Court will say 5-4 that states cannot apply Section 3 to federal candidates without a criminal conviction for insurrection or rebellion. I also think Trump will win his immunity argument with the same majority.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  400. Sad!

    Rudy Giuliani filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New York on Thursday, citing debts that include a nearly $150 million recent civil judgment against him for defaming Georgia election workers while serving as a lawyer for former President Donald Trump.

    The filing by Giuliani came a day after a federal judge in Washington, D.C., ordered the former New York City mayor to begin paying the two election workers the damages he owed for their lawsuit and three days after the women filed a new suit seeking to bar him from defaming them again.
    ………
    The filing estimates he has assets worth between $1 million and $10 million, and estimated current liabilities of between $100 million and $500 million. A worksheet in the filing lists his unsecured, non-priority debts at $151.8 million.

    Giuliani listed nearly $1 million in debt to the IRS and New York State Department of Taxation and Finance for unpaid taxes, which would get first right of payment in bankruptcy court.

    In addition to the defamation award, he also listed several million dollars in debts to law firms.

    The list of non-secured creditors in the filing includes entities and people that are still suing him, among them the Dominion and Smartmatic election machine companies, President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden, and Giuliani’s former employee Noelle Dunphy, who accuses him of sexual harassment and wage theft.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  401. Due process (of some kind) is something that goes without saying.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  402. Jack Smith responds to Meese et al amicus:

    Second, an amici brief in support of neither party raises an argument respondent has not raised at any point in this case: that the Special Counsel lacks statutory and constitutional authority to bring this prosecution. See Meese et al., Amici Br. 1-24. This Court does not “generally entertain arguments that were not raised below and are not advanced in this Court by anyparty,” Burwell v. Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc., 573 U.S. 682, 721 (2014), and sound reasons support adhering to that practice here. This Court rejected a materially identical statutory contention in United States v. Nixon, holding that the Attorney General properly appointed the Special Prosecutor there pursuant to 28
    U.S.C. 509, 510, 515, and 533. See 418 U.S. at 694-695. And the D.C. Circuit rejected a materially identical statutory and constitutional challenge to a previous Special Counsel, explaining that Nixon constituted a binding statutory holding that the Special Counsel was properly appointed and rejecting amici’s claim that Special Counsels are principal, rather than inferior, officers. See In re Grand Jury Investigation, 916 F.3d 1047, 1051-1054 (D.C. Cir. 2019). No reason exists for this Court to allow amici’s unsound arguments, not presented by a party, to affect the Court’s grant of the petition.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/293970/20231221105032440_United%20States%20v.%20Trump_CBJ%20Reply.pdf

    tl;dr — All this has been argued in the past during Nixon days and the courts did not agree. Plus nobody raised this before.

    Appalled (03f53c)

  403. It is inherent in any law.It hs been so held.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  404. #404

    Nope — Trump does not win both. That’s your inner Eeyore braying. The immunity thing conflicts with Nixon era precedent and tells the courts that they should just butt out. Courts have been asserting their property rights since Marbury v. Madison. I think it’s something like 9-0, 8-0 or 7-2.

    Trump will likely win on Colorado.

    Appalled (03f53c)

  405. Funny that Smith didn’t simply state that Calibresi is “someone who didn’t do their due diligence, mucked things up, and memorialized it with a rambling blog post.”

    The Amicus will probably go nowhere anyways, but it is interesting to me that Smith felt as though he had better respond to it.

    Maybe SCOTUS will at least add “thumbs-up” and “thumbs-down” buttons to their system so the intrepid Volokh-menter can participate in the opinion.

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  406. #410

    It would be a more entertaining world if briefs read like internet commentary, wouldn’t it?

    Appalled (03f53c)

  407. Here’s an interesting breakdown:
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1737529218848772427.html

    There are five judicial opinions out of Colorado on this Trump ballot thing: the trial court opinion, the Supreme Court majority opinion, and three Supreme Court dissenting opinions.

    None of the opinions agree with each other (except maybe the dissenting opinions of Chief Justice Boatright and Justice Berkenkotter).

    The most compelling and – in my view – correct decision was the dissent from Justice Samour.

    Justice Samour reached holdings that none of the other four groups did.

    He examined the issues with the depth and close examination of the case law that is most like how SCOTUS does it.

    I think SCOTUS will reverse the decision of the Colorado Supreme Court, and will largely follow the dissent of Justice Samour. I think the SCOTUS decision will be either 9-0 or 7-2.

    When the SCOTUS does so, I will remind of you this tweet and gloat. There will be no dealing with me after that.
    Before we get to Justice Samour, first some background on the Colorado Supreme Court. It is not typically a deeply divided or partisan Court. They are all Democrats, and they were all appointed by Democrat governors with similar liberal/libertarian leanings.

    We get a lot of unanimous opinions. Divisions when they occur are typically respectful and intellectually honest. No vitriol.

    I was surprised that this case was a 4-3 opinion, and even more surprised at how sloppy the majority opinion was. Knowing that SCOTUS absolutely has to take this case, I figured they would write something stronger. Ah well.
    One more tweet about Justice Samour before we get to the law stuff — he was born and raised in El Salvador, but fled the country at the age of 13 due to the risk of civil war.

    Not necessarily relevant but . . . maybe it is.

    Ok, onto the law stuff.
    This case is about Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Passed in the aftermath of the Civil War, Section 3 says that insurrectionists can’t hold certain offices.

    The trial court held that Section 3 did not apply to the President, and the trial court might be right. Justice Samour did not need to resolve that issue, though . . .

    Because of Section FIVE of the 14th Amendment. That section says hey — you know the whole insurrection thing we just talked about?

    How is this supposed to work? Who gets to decide who engaged in an insurrection? What sort of standard of proof applies? Is it a civil trial or a criminal trial? Is it a judge or a jury or someone else who decides that a particular person engaged in insurrection and therefore disqualified? What if they’re already appointed – do they still get paid while the proceedings are going on?

    The 14th amendment doesn’t answer any of these questions. Instead, Section 5 says that Congress gets to pass legislation to give enforcement power to carry out Section 3.

    And Congress did just that! Justice Samour points out that in 1870, Congress passed a law that allowed for both civil and criminal enforcement of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

    This law was when repealed and replaced in 1948.

    1948: Congress replaced the 1870 statute with a criminal insurrection law, 18 U.S.C. § 2383.

    If convicted under that statute — with full criminal due process afforded the defendant — one of the punishments is to be banned from holding office in the United States.

    Trump has not been charged under this statute.

    So. Congress — and only Congress — gets to pass legislation enforcing Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

    Congress did so, and it chose to enact a criminal statute that bars anyone convicted under it from holding any office in the U.S.

    Trump has not been charged or convicted under that statute.

    Therefore, Trump can appear on the ballot.

    That’s pretty much it.

    There is case law backing up all of this analysis. Justice Samour engaged in a lengthy discussion of Griffin’s Case, but I’ll let you read that for yourself. I predict that SCOTUS will heavily cite Griffin’s Case in its decision reversing Colorado.

    This analysis renders a lot of the other questions irrelevant. Did Trump engage in an insurrection? Does Section 3 apply to the President? Should Trump be off the ballot nationwide or just in states like Colorado that found that he engaged in an insurrection?

    None of that matters. The only thing that matters is that Congress followed the 14th Amendment and established a procedure for barring someone from office for engaging in an insurrection, and that procedure was not followed here.

    whembly (af0b8c)

  408. The Amicus will probably go nowhere anyways, but it is interesting to me that Smith felt as though he had better respond to it.

    It’s what a competent lawyer does. The Justices will read it. Are they supposed to know right off the bat that it’s trump, or research the government’s position themselves?

    nk (d58a99)

  409. I also think Trump will win his immunity argument with the same majority.

    I think he will lose that 9-0 or maybe 8-Thomas. The idea that he is immune from actions outside the scope of this official duties is ludicrous (and whipping up a mob to storm the Capitol is definitely outside them).

    He has lost this at the District and Circuit courts. His minions have been losing these decisions right and left when they tried to use the “official duties” argument to move their GA case(s) to federal courts.

    He would have to show that his attempts to stay in office after losing an election, and to suborn false witness and electoral votes is part of the President’s job. That dog won’t hunt.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  410. Before we get to Justice Samour, first some background on the Colorado Supreme Court. It is not typically a deeply divided or partisan Court. They are all Democrats, and they were all appointed by Democrat governors with similar liberal/libertarian leanings.

    DOES. NOT. &*%^ING. MATTER.

    There is no appellate court in this country that will accept this “all the judges were Democrats” argument. Tough cookies. Same goes for all those who dislike Bruen.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  411. I was surprised that this case was a 4-3 opinion

    Only because you went in with partisan assumptions. The way we select judges by a political process means that you get political results.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  412. Supreme court strict constructionists have a problem if they ignore 14th amendment and justice gorsuch concurrence in hassan case. They will be shown as political hacks for the lying hippocrates they are on original intent. This will make it easier to get rid of them.

    asset (b6fcf5)

  413. The “elite eight” names will be redacted from the 177 names that will be releases in the epstein pedophile case. Clinton and the others successfully had their names removed from the list to avoid embarrassment to their reputations.

    asset (b6fcf5)

  414. Maybe if you repeat your argument another 10 times, asset, we might agree with it, eh?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  415. Rip is correct that Trump will appear on the ballot because the calendar doesn’t permit anything else. But he might not appear on the CA ballot.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  416. Like Dellie Keegan complained at the North Arabian Stock Camel Race, dromedaries keep crashing into her camel because they don’t to be beaten by a Bactrian. It’s the same thing with Trump and the Democrats.

    nk (83b660)

  417. I was hoping that the Democrats would have a better 2024 election strategy than having someone other than Trump to run against, thereby getting Trump’s supporters to stay home on election day.

    Such, as for example, having a nominee who is not Swiss cheese-brained dotard at the beck and call of every progressive noise group.

    nk (83b660)

  418. Rip is correct that Trump will appear on the ballot because the calendar doesn’t permit anything else. But he might not appear on the CA ballot.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/21/2023 @ 3:07 pm

    There is no serious attempt in California to bar Trump from the ballot. The Lt. Governor has asked the Secretary of State to look at every “legal option” to bar Trump, but she’s just trying to get attention since she is running for governor. As far as I know, there are no lawsuits seeking to do so, unlike the ones listed here. The deadline to finalize candidates for the Super Tuesday primary is Dec. 28th.

    It’s more wishful thinking.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  419. Due process (of some kind) is something that goes without saying.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 12/21/2023 @ 11:18 am

    The Colorado district court’s five day trial constituted whatever due process is required.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  420. The 2024 election strategy for the Democrats is premised on whom the GOP candidate is – and Trump has been the favorite the whole primary campaign.

    You should let the Progressives know that Biden is at their beck and call – ’cause they positively loathe Biden for not giving them what they want.

    Sam G (8d2ed1)

  421. You should let the Progressives know that Biden is at their beck and call – ’cause they positively loathe Biden for not giving them what they want.

    Nobody can give ultra-wackos, left or right, ALL they want. The secret of Trump’s success is that he has his believing that he can and will.

    nk (83b660)

  422. Unless Ilya Somin was being sarcastic, he has no business teaching American Constitutional law. He should be back in his homeland teaching dialectical materialism. For two reasons:

    The Constitutional right of every natural born citizen who has attained the age of 35 years to run for President is not a food stamp. It is a liberty interest that children are taught in grade school. Sure the 22nd Amendment limits it to two terms. But it took a CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT to do it!

    Second, the Constitution’s protection of rights is not the ceiling. It is the minimum guaranteed protection. Statutes, the common law, tradition, custom and usage, and just plain common sense are unfettered to provide more.

    nk (83b660)

  423. 424.

    She also found that Trump “acted with the specific intent to disrupt the Electoral College certification of President Biden’s electoral victory through unlawful means.”

    That is simple false. He was following a lawful and peaceful method of stopping he Electoral College certification using the Electoral Count Act, and all the riot did was disrupt that

    “The Court finds that Trump’s Ellipse speech incited imminent lawless violence,” she wrote.

    “Trump did so explicitly by telling the crowd repeatedly to ‘fight’ and to ‘fight like hell,’ to ‘walk down to the Capitol,’ and that they needed to ‘take back our country’ through ‘strength.’ He did so implicitly by encouraging the crowd that they could play by ‘very different rules’ because of the supposed fraudulent election.”

    Complete nonsense.

    Trump did not rile up the crowd to do anything except go to a rally , and the crowd wasn’t riled up to engage in violence nor could that speech have done that even theoretically – it’s not human nature for any of his words to have done that.

    The storming of the Capitol had been planned for days and weeks and some people were convicted of just that. (And they also succeeded in getting a few non-conspirators to take part.)

    Jack Smith was not able to find any evidence that Donald Trump had any knowledge of those plans and there is strong evidence that he did not know about them nor anticipate that, because he wanted to go to the Capitol grounds himself and had to be almost tricked by White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows (who was aware of possible problems even a few days earlier, according to Cassidy Hutchinson – and also, by the way, Rudy Giuliani, who was heavily involved in devising Trump’s strategy for January 6, 2021 she indicated by her testimony, was not) into not going there. That is virtually indisputable.

    But the Democratic leadership, in its impeachment articles and also to some degree with the Jan 6 committee, persisted in this mythology that Trump had incited the crowd, which was contrary both to logic and to the evidence, and claimed this was insurrection as well. There is no other support for that.

    To do that they had to obscure, as best they could, Trump’s actual plans for the day, even though everyone who was following the events knew what they were.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  424. 425. Sam G (8d2ed1) — 12/21/2023 @ 3:47 pm

    The 2024 election strategy for the Democrats is premised on whom the GOP candidate is – and Trump has been the favorite the whole primary campaign.

    Pretty stupid of them to try to disqualify Trump, unless they hope to fail. How do you explain that?

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  425. The problem here is that it is not obvious that Trump is disqualified from becoming president, as would be the case had he, like Barack Obama, served two terms, or been impeached convicted and then disqualified by a majority vote of the Senate. Or was too young, or not a natural born citizen

    This is an issue very much up in the air, and the Colorado ballot is not the place for determining it. Besides, if the 14th amendment was the basis for it, it could be waived by a two thirds majority of both houses could remove such a disqualification, so it is not even an absolute disability.

    Now Colorado law could give the Secretary if Sate authority to remove from the ballot any person whom he or she thinks is disqualified from holding the office of president, but I don’t think it did.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  426. @429 – Colorado’s suit was brought by Republicans/conservatives, not Democrats. While I’m sure many would prefer that Trump be disqualified (’cause if anyone deserves it, it’s him), the fact remains that the GOP is responsible for their own actions. If they prefer it be someone other than Trump, they’re doing a terrible job of it.

    Sam G (8d2ed1)

  427. The question at hand for SCOTUS is whether the state courts have the ability to determine if someone is or is not eligible per the US Constitution – and how their state laws then handle said determination. We are definitely in uncharted territory – but that’s something we have to deal with, and not shy away from these questions.

    Sam G (8d2ed1)

  428. Not all the members of the Supreme Court of Colorado are Democrats – they were all appointed by Democrats, five of them by one Governor, John Hickenlooper (served 2011-19,noe a Senator.

    Two are Republicans, including the Chief Justice, who was one of the dissenters; two are Democrats and three are not registered in a party.

    The four who ruled for upholding the removal of Trump from the ballot consist of two Democrats and two independents. (therefore the three who ruled in favor of Trump being on the ballot are two Republicans and one independent.)

    They serve ten year terms and are appointed from off a list. The Governor names a majority of that committee.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  429. Sam G (8d2ed1) — 12/21/2023 @ 4:34 pm

    The question at hand for SCOTUS is whether the state courts have the ability to determine if someone is or is not eligible per the US Constitution

    No, a state could authorize some official to guess. It cannot do any more than that.

    Different states with the same identical law, could come to different conclusions.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  430. Sam G (8d2ed1) — 12/21/2023 @ 4:31 pm

    Colorado’s suit was brought by Republicans/conservatives, not Democrats.

    Who exactly sued, and for what?

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  431. Who exactly sued, and for what?

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/21/2023 @ 4:43 pm

    Here is the initial complaint in the Colorado case.

    Petitioners Norma Anderson, Michelle Priola, Claudine Cmarada, Krista Kafer, Kathi Wright, and Christopher Castilian, eligible Colorado electors, bring this action under C.R.S. § 1-4-1204(4), § 1-1-113(1), § 13-51-105, and C.R.C.P. 57(a), to challenge the listing of Respondent Donald J. Trump as a candidate on the 2024 Republican presidential primary election ballot and any future election ballot, based on his disqualification from public office under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States. Petitioners seek an order declaring Trump disqualified under the Fourteenth Amendment and enjoining Respondent Secretary of State Jena Griswold (the “Secretary”) from taking any action that would allow him to access the ballot. Under C.R.S. §1-4-1204(4) and C.R.C.P. 57(m), Petitioners respectfully request and are entitled to an expedited hearing on this Petition.

    More:

    The plaintiffs include former Republican U.S. representative from Rhode Island Claudine (Cmarada) Schneider, who now lives in Colorado; former Colorado House and Senate Majority Leader Norma Anderson, an unaffiliated voter who recently left the Republican party; Denver Post columnist and Republican activist Krista Kafer; Michelle Priola, Kathi Wright, and Christopher Castilian.

    Michelle Priola is the wife of state Sen. Kevin Priola, who switched his party affiliation to Democratic from Republican in 2022; and Kathi Wright, who is a former member of the Loveland City Council.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  432. I would rule that the law is obsolete, like the Fugitive Slave Clause, having served its purpose in the aftermath of the Civil War, when there was no question that there had been an insurrection in the first place, and it was judicially noticeable who had been a sworn officer of the United States and then defected to the Confederacy.

    If I wanted to compromise, I would point out that the 14th Amendment has an enabling clause, and if Congress is worried about it, they can pass a law sometime before the Electoral College next meets, setting out the procedure for disqualifying Secesh candidates.

    nk (83b660)

  433. The odd thing is that there is no national election for President, except when you get to the Electoral College. It’s 50 state elections, and some voting in DC, to choose those electors.

    The states have some wide latitude in how they conduct the vote, such as how voters are registered and what voting opportunities people have (mail, early, etc). Unless there is a federal law to the contrary, a state could theoretically allow 16-year-olds to vote for presidential electors (but not for Congress).

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  434. nk, let’s say that the J6 insurrection lasted a week and 12 Congressmen were lynched by the mob. Would you still be saying that the 14th Amendment didn’t apply, at least to those who had disregarded their oath, because the Civil War was over?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  435. New NH poll:

    Overall:

    Trump 33%
    Haley 29%
    Christie 13%
    DeSantis 6%
    Ramaswamy 5%
    Undecided 12%

    Likely to vote:

    Trump 33%
    Haley 32%
    Christie 14%
    DeSantis 5%
    Ramaswamy 3%
    Undecided 11%

    https://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2024/rep/nhrep.html

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  436. Now, suppose Christie steps out.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  437. Suppose Haley drops out…….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  438. nk, let’s say that the J6 insurrection lasted a week and 12 Congressmen were lynched by the mob. Would you still be saying that the 14th Amendment didn’t apply, at least to those who had disregarded their oath, because the Civil War was over?

    There was no 14th Amendment when the Civil War ended. It was passed by the Senate on June 8, 1866, and ratified two years later, on July 9, 1868.

    In the meantime, there were laws against treason, murder, robbery, arson, insurrection, armed riot, piracy, smuggling ….

    So, yes. What difference does it make in your hypothetical?

    nk (83b660)

  439. That the amendment does not state is is only for the former Confederates says to me that it applies to this day. It makes logical sense that if an insurrection happened, that another could happen in the future.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  440. Let’s not forget the retrospective power of a Constitutional Amendment. It can be ex post facto as well as permit attainder (the loss of civil rights).

    nk (83b660)

  441. William Tecumsseh Sherman is my personal hero, but his “barbarity” was in wartime. The Radical Republicans were sore winners, doubly vindictive after Lincoln’s assassination, and I am loath to apply textualism, or originalism that is not skeptical or downright jaundiced.

    nk (83b660)

  442. Saint Anselm College Survey Center Poll 12/20/23

    ………..
    New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque stated “After earning the key endorsement of New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, former Ambassador Nikki Haley has broken away from the pack pursuing former President Donald Trump and become the clear alternative. However, even after cutting Trump’s lead in half, she still trails as his support remains steady in the mid-40’s. Trump’s supporters seem undeterred by the former president’s ongoing legal challenges.”

    Trump maintains a significant lead, as 44% of respondents express their preference for the former president on the ballot test, a 14-point lead over his closest challenger, Nikki Haley. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie continues to make incremental gains, while former Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ support has all but disappeared. Christie is now the preferred candidate of 12% of respondents, while DeSantis now sits at 6% [tied with Vivek Ramaswamy].
    ……….
    ………(A) strong majority of Christie supporters indicate they would vote for Biden if Trump is the Republican nominee; 79% would vote for Biden, while only 1% would vote for Trump. A plurality of Haley supporters, 43%, would choose Biden over Trump. Kennedy doesn’t appear to hurt Biden as he draws a bit more Republican voters than Democrats. Kennedy takes 9% of the Republican vote in the hypothetical match-up versus only 6% of the Democratic vote.
    ………

    Whether Trump comes in first or second doesn’t mean much as NH allocates its delegates proportionally. And as I have pointed out above, “winning” in NH doesn’t mean much if you do so with Democrat or independent votes, as demonstrated that 43% of Haley’s supporters would vote for Biden over Trump in the general. In fact, it probably would make a candidate less attractive to the Republican base. NH in modern times has a poor record of picking party nominees and presidents.

    According to the American Research poll, Haley receives support from 27% of Republicans and 33% of independents (the poll doesn’t note the percentage of Democrats who would crossover.) The poll has no cross tabs so it is difficult to determine what other support she has. The AR poll is a definite outlier when compared to the 538 average (Trump +20 as of today). The AR poll has a C+ rating by 538, so at best it’s accuracy is average.

    In contrast, the St. Anselm survey has much more detail. The graph on page 8 really demonstrates that Haley has been cannibalizing from her fellow Lilliputians while not eating into Trump’s support. Voter preference for Trump has bounced between 42-44% since March 2023, while Haley has been taking support away from the rapidly declining DeSantis and Ramaswamy. Even if she consolidated the anti-Trump vote, I would guess that Ramaswamy’s 6% and half of DeSantis 6% would go to Trump, not Haley.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  443. nk (83b660) — 12/21/2023 @ 4:06 pm

    D@mn right, sir.

    felipe (79693d)

  444. @441 Now, suppose Christie steps out.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/21/2023 @ 5:50 pm

    @442 Suppose Haley drops out…….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/21/2023 @ 6:01 pm

    Guys, you’d vote for either DeSantis or Halley before Trump.

    The American people are going to make their selections.

    whembly (637c51)

  445. Thank you, felipe. I would say that common sense is the most compelling reason. The process must be, and must be seen to be, fair. Especially these days.

    nk (0383b4)

  446. whembly (637c51) — 12/21/2023 @ 7:18 pm

    I wouldn’t vote for any of them.

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  447. I would vote Christie, but he won’t make it to Super Tuesday.

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  448. UMass Lowell/YouGov New Hampshire Republican Primary Poll 12/21/23

    Of 450 likely Granite State primary voters surveyed, 52% would vote for Trump, while 22% signaled they would vote for Haley, who once served as Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and was endorsed in the race by N.H. Gov. Chris Sununu last week.

    “The poll results throw cold water on any traction Haley thought she had,” said UMass Lowell’s John Cluverius, the center’s director of survey research and an associate professor of political science. “Despite an endorsement from Sununu – whom the poll found enjoys an 80% favorability rating among respondents – and her attempt to thread the needle on abortion, she can’t seem to close the deal.”
    …………..
    Candidates trailing behind include Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (10%), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (6%), entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (4%), and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (1%). Less than .5% of respondents support another candidate, and 5% of likely primary voters are undecided, the poll found.
    ………….
    The survey results appear to solidify Trump’s hold on the state, as he handily won the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary in 2020. Today’s findings show Trump supporters to be the most stalwart of backers among the candidates, as 79% responded they would definitely vote for him. In contrast, 47% of Haley’s supporters said they would definitely vote for her, while 53% said they could still change their minds.
    …………
    Among respondents who identify as Republicans, 64% say there should be a right to get an abortion in every state. ………
    …………

    Top lines.

    From the poll:

    Favorable/Unfavorable:

    Trump 68/27
    Haley 54/24
    Christie 25/49
    DeSantis 53/26
    Ramaswamy 44/25

    Support/Do not Support building a border wall on the Canadian border?

    Yes 39%
    No 61

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  449. Happy Days Are Really Here Again:

    The big-spending Dodgers beat out at least a dozen other teams to procure the most coveted starting pitcher on the free-agent market, agreeing to terms on a 12-year, $325-million deal with Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, according to a person with knowledge of the deal unauthorized to speak publicly.

    Yamamoto, 25, is the team’s third major acquisition in two weeks, joining two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani, who signed a record 10-year, $700-million contract on Dec. 14, and veteran right-hander Tyler Glasnow……..

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  450. Suppose Haley drops out…….

    Suppose Trump drops out

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  451. The Radical Republicans were sore winners

    Yeah, why get all hot and bothered about 2 centuries of slavery, rape and murder?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  452. Sure the 22nd Amendment limits it to two terms. But it took a CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT to do it!

    Yeah, I called Somin out on that handwave, too. Hey, let’s pass a statute to limit it to one term. It’s not a liberty interest, right?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  453. I would vote Christie, but he won’t make it to Super Tuesday.

    So, “best available” is not an option for you? Only “agrees with me on most everything”? Too many people with too many litmus tests is now scoundrels like Trump win.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  454. Ramaswamy 44/25

    How can only 25% not think he’s scum?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  455. @422 if he doesn’t the left will primary him and then vote jill stein like 2016 only a lot more.

    asset (3f0494)

  456. @429 easy trump derangement syndrome. Older establishment liberal women have it the worst and they dominate the corporate side of the democrat party. When AOC runs she hardly mentions trump and this upsets those with trump derangement syndrome.

    asset (3f0494)

  457. It’s always a dream on the fringe that THIS TIME it will be different.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  458. 14th amendment has to do with confederate insurrectionists is wrong ;but I will play along. It still meets 14th amendment standard as confederate insurrectionist is pictured marching thru capital with confederate flag! Other confederate flags and other paraphernalia were seen also.

    asset (3f0494)

  459. The GOP primary is a contest of normal versus abnormal. DeSantis, Haley, and Christie are well within the Overton window of normal Republican (in a historical sense). Trump and Ramaswamy are abnormal. Thirty years ago, the legal and personal baggage of a Trump candidate would sink him before the race even started. There was no ecosystem that would radicalize that support or luxuriate in the drama.

    That’s now what we are up against.

    The internet allows us to luxuriate in the worst kind of anti-critical thinking. Conspiracies abound and we value drama over character and moderation. We’re no longer offended when we hear shameful comments. It’s the norm. “Poisoning the bloood” is trying to expand the Overton window….many here will let it happen through some sad rationalization.

    Haley is still a longshot, though she is now attracting Trump’s fire. That’s good, because it crystallizes the choice. If normal loses, I still want it to be a clear choice between normal and abnormal. At some point, the party will need to re-vector. Losing and becoming more and more extreme makes it less and less relevant.

    I want as many in NH and IA to vote normal as possible. And that normal vote needs to consolidate to increase its effect. Let’s pray that it happens. It will be a national tragedy if Trump is nominated and then becomes a convicted felon. The trajectory of that means the end of the GOP.

    AJ_Liberty (a07410)

  460. Yeah, why get all hot and bothered about 2 centuries of slavery, rape and murder?

    I understand. The Spanish-American War was 125 years ago, and AOC still cries inconsolably every time she walks by a chain link fence whenever she is in San Juan.

    nk (d88a10)

  461. Core PCE inflation for the past six months is 1.9%.

    Turns out it was more a “1948-1952 re-opening” than a “1970s-1980s malaise”.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  462. Suppose Trump drops out

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/21/2023 @ 9:45 pm

    LOL! Never will happen. But Christie will drop out sometime after New Hampshire. Depending on the outcome of the Super Tuesday contests, Haley will continue even if Trump obtains a majority of convention delegates.

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  463. It will be a national tragedy if Trump is nominated and then becomes a convicted felon. The trajectory of that means the end of the GOP.

    AJ_Liberty (a07410) — 12/22/2023 @ 5:26 am

    Is that necessarily a bad thing? Shouldn’t “normal” leave “abnormal” and start a new party if GOP voters insist on Trumpism becoming the new normal?

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  464. How can only 25% not think (Ramaswamy’s) scum?

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/21/2023 @ 9:53 pm

    Is that the only thing you took away from that poll? Did you miss the part where Haley has flamed out (Trump +30)? And where it says “53% of (Haley’s supporters) said they could still change their minds.”?

    Talk about focusing on the trivial.

    BTW, I don’t expect Haley to make a serious effort in California. Too expensive, and the State GOP has rigged the game in Trump’s favor.

    Rip Murdock (dee8eb)

  465. . Petitioners seek an order declaring Trump disqualified under the Fourteenth Amendment and enjoining Respondent Secretary of State Jena Griswold (the “Secretary”) from taking any action that would allow him to access the ballot. Under C.R.S. §1-4-1204(4) and C.R.C.P. 57(m), Petitioners respectfully request and are entitled to an expedited hearing on this Petition.

    What section of Colorado state law authorizes the removal from the ballot of any person not eligible for the office he or she seeks?

    So far that questionn has been begged in anything I read.

    Furthermore how dies Colorado get to determine what is, after all, a federal level question?’

    Now Colorado law could say some state official, or even a court, could guess and that would be all right both for the primary (which is very unofficial) and for the general election (where a state can choose electors any which way it wants) but is it really true that the Colorado court rested this authority on the 14th amendment alone without any additional clauses in Colorado state law referencing the 14th amendment or any disquualification in general?

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  466. So if someone ineligible wants to run a state must place them on the ballot, and then later that person is deemed ineligible by someone at the Federal level? E.g. Cenk Uyger should be able to get ballot access, even though he’s ineligible for not being a natural born citizen?

    A better question is why wouldn’t the states determine eligibility prior to placing a candidate on their ballots, considering the states are responsible for their election systems?

    SamG (4e6c22)

  467. The Loser’s psychological problems are imposing heavy “opportunity costs” on the nation. We are spending far too much time discussing the Loser’s legal problems, and, as a result, far too little on our many national problems.

    The Loser often reminds me of a small boy, desperate for attention, who, again and again, disrupts his classroom, preventing others from learning.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

    Jim Miller (5e452f)

  468. @471 Uyger could get on the ballot by simply filling out the application form correctly. Of course, that would require that he lies.

    lloyd (7bc10f)

  469. I’m trying to find a form that actually has any statement regarding eligibility: I see lots of “gather X signatures, have X amount of money for your campaign, etc…” – but not a form where you check “Yes, I am 35 years or older”, “Yes, I am a natural born citizen”, “No, I have not engaged in a rebellion/insurgency against the USA”.

    If you have more luck please do share.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  470. ……What section of Colorado state law authorizes the removal from the ballot of any person not eligible for the office he or she seeks?

    So far that questionn has been begged in anything I read.

    Furthermore how dies Colorado get to determine what is, after all, a federal level question?’……

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 12/22/2023 @ 7:46 am

    Here are links to the district court and CO Supreme Court decisions. I’m sure the answers to your questions are there.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  471. Never Back Down is cancelling events in Iowa and New Hampshire.

    Poor choice of PAC name.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  472. I’m trying to find a form that actually has any statement regarding eligibility: I see lots of “gather X signatures, have X amount of money for your campaign, etc…” – but not a form where you check “Yes, I am 35 years or older”, “Yes, I am a natural born citizen”, “No, I have not engaged in a rebellion/insurgency against the USA”.

    If you have more luck please do share.

    SamG (4e6c22) — 12/22/2023 @ 8:58 am

    Here you go.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  473. Thanks. May I just say – lol.

    He’s such a putz.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  474. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/22/2023 @ 8:01 am

    So if someone ineligible wants to run a state must place them on the ballot, and then later that person is deemed ineligible by someone at the Federal level? E.g. Cenk Uyger should be able to get ballot access, even though he’s ineligible for not being a natural born citizen?

    If he disputes that he is not a natural born citizen.

    That accusation was actually made by some people in 2008 against both Barack Obama (by lies and bad law) and John McCain (because he was born in Panama Canal Zone and even worse bad law)

    And also I don’t see how the ability to knock someone off for ineligibility prevents your scenario: A state could declare someone eligible and he could win and then somewhere else it could be determined that he was not. That’s one scenario in the 20th amendment.

    A better question is why wouldn’t the states determine eligibility prior to placing a candidate on their ballots, considering the states are responsible for their election systems?

    A state can do it, but what each state says is not determinative.

    A state does have the right to guess that a candidate is not eligible for the office he or she seeks and use that as a reason to deny him or her a spot on the ballot and to not count even write-in votes cast for that person, (write-ins may not be possible in a general election for president unless maybe it is pre-arranged, since you are actually voting for electors) but that provision, I think, must be explicitly written into state law, and the authority to make that guess that must be vested somewhere either explicitly or implicitly (could be in a court) but I haven’t heard anything that indicates that Colorado state law does any such thing.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  475. A state can disqualify someone from the ballot for any reason applicable to all candidates.

    This is what happened to Chris Christie in the Republican primary in Maine because he didn’t “separate petition forms by town, as instructed by the Secretary, or, in the alternative, give himself sufficient time to bring those multi-town signature sheets to the relevant municipalities” before a Nov. 20 deadline (the reason for this requirement is to enable clerks to verify signatures)

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  476. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/22/2023 @ 9:04 am

    Here are links to the district court and CO Supreme Court decisions.

    They don’t work in Windows 10. The window opens and then closes and I don’t even see an Asobe Acrobat window

    I’m sure the answers to your questions are there.

    I would hope so, but I have no confidence that it was. Or it was discussed in just a few words that cite something.

    Maybe you can find where Colorado state law, either specifically r in general terms, authorizes the removal from the ballot of any person not eligible for the office he or she seeks?

    I think they may not be relying on anything in Colorado state law at all.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  477. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/22/2023 @ 9:15 am

    Here is the California Secretary of State’s summary of qualifications for Republican candidates running in the March 5, 2024 presidential primary. The Democratic Party form is identical.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  478. Maybe you can find where Colorado state law, either specifically r in general terms, authorizes the removal from the ballot of any person not eligible for the office he or she seeks?

    I think they may not be relying on anything in Colorado state law at all.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/22/2023 @ 9:24 am

    I’m sure you can do your own research.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  479. Things are bad when you need to deny this.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  480. I’m trying to find a form that actually has any statement regarding eligibility: I see lots of “gather X signatures, have X amount of money for your campaign, etc…” – but not a form where you check “Yes, I am 35 years or older”, “Yes, I am a natural born citizen”, “No, I have not engaged in a rebellion/insurgency against the USA”.

    If you have more luck please do share.

    SamG (4e6c22) — 12/22/2023 @ 8:58 am

    Maybe the highlighted requirement should be added. 😉

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  481. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/22/2023 @ 9:27 am

    I’m sure you can do your own research.

    No I can’t right now, and in any case, how can I prove a negative?

    You need to prove a positive: That there is some basis cited by the court for removing a disqualified person from the ballot.

    Or maybe they just assumed that.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  482. No I can’t right now, and in any case, how can I prove a negative?

    You need to prove a positive: That there is some basis cited by the court for removing a disqualified person from the ballot.

    Or maybe they just assumed that.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/22/2023 @ 9:31 am

    I do not need to prove anything, the assertion that Trump is disqualified was made by the Colorado courts, not me. I provided the links to their opinions; the fact that your computer is still running on an eight year old operating system is not my problem.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  483. There is plenty of legal commentary on the Internet that responds to your questions.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  484. I provided the links to their opinions; the fact that your computer is still running on an eight year old operating system is not my problem.

    No, the older (last updated 2014?) system lets me see PDF files -it’s the newer one that does not.

    There is plenty of legal commentary on the Internet that responds to your questions.

    Give me a link. I suspect that the emperor has no clothes.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  485. @485 absolutely: it’s a baseline eligibility item.

    @487 the latest release of Win 10 is 22H2, so only 1 year or so.

    @Sammy, my statement there is that there was a trial and based on a preponderance of the evidence the justices determined that Trump is ineligible. If that’s wrong it’ll be overturned.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  486. A Proclamation on Granting Pardon for the Offense of Simple Possession of Marijuana, Attempted Simple Possession of Marijuana, or Use of Marijuana

    In Proclamation 10467 of October 6, 2022 (Granting Pardon for the Offense of Simple Possession of Marijuana), I exercised my authority under the Constitution to pardon individuals who committed or were convicted of the offense of simple possession of marijuana in violation of the Controlled Substances Act and section 48–904.01(d)(1) of the Code of the District of Columbia (D.C. Code). As I have said before, convictions for simple possession of marijuana have imposed needless barriers to employment, housing, and educational opportunities. Through this proclamation, consistent with the grant of Proclamation 10467, I am pardoning additional individuals who may continue to experience the unnecessary collateral consequences of a conviction for simple possession of marijuana, attempted simple possession of marijuana, or use of marijuana. Therefore, acting pursuant to the grant of authority in Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution of the United States, I, Joseph R. Biden Jr., do hereby grant a full, complete, and unconditional pardon to all current United States citizens and lawful permanent residents who, on or before the date of this proclamation, committed or were convicted of the offense of simple possession of marijuana, attempted simple possession of marijuana, or use of marijuana, regardless of whether they have been charged with or prosecuted for these offenses on or before the date of this proclamation, in violation of:
    ……….
    My intent by this proclamation is to pardon only the offenses of simple possession of marijuana, attempted simple possession of marijuana, or use of marijuana in violation of the Federal and D.C. laws set forth in paragraphs (1) through (3) of this proclamation, as well as the provisions in the Code of Federal Regulations consistent with paragraph (4) of this proclamation, and not any other offenses involving other controlled substances or activity beyond simple possession of marijuana, attempted simple possession of marijuana, or use of marijuana, such as possession of marijuana with intent to distribute or driving offenses committed while under the influence of marijuana. This pardon does not apply to individuals who were non-citizens not lawfully present in the United States at the time of their offense.
    ………

    This will affect relatively few individuals since most marijuana prosecutions are by local or state, not federal authorities.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  487. Addendum to my second point above: depending on how up-to-date Sammy keeps his OS.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  488. “absolutely: it’s a baseline eligibility item.”

    And, Trump would answer “No” and would need not lie to do so.

    After the Civil War there were still hard core Confederates who could vote in large numbers. I hold the 14th Amendment was as much aimed at them as at insurrectionists who could hold office. Voters in Colorado have done nothing to take away their right to vote and nominate who they choose, subject to objective criteria. There is a really disturbing movement that doesn’t want to simply trust the people with their vote. It’s one thing to say Trump did that in 2020. It didn’t work. It had no chance of working. It’s quite another to try it now under the cover of law and have it succeed.

    lloyd (7bc10f)

  489. AJ,

    The real question about Trump’s continued success is this” Why are so many people dead set on supporting him? What is so horrible in their lives that chaos and strongman rule seems like a good idea?

    Extra credit: Why have post-apocalypse novels become so popular?

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  490. Give me a link. I suspect that the emperor has no clothes.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/22/2023 @ 9:44 am

    Here, here, and here.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  491. But Christie will drop out sometime after New Hampshire.

    By then he will already be “the shill who elected Donald Trump.”

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  492. Core PCE inflation for the past six months is 1.9%.

    And yet prices at the supermarket continue to increase. When a can of chili that was $1.69 before the pandemic, and $2.29 in March, is now $2.89 I just gotta wonder who is lying to me.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  493. Give me a link. I suspect that the emperor has no clothes.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 12/22/2023 @ 9:44 am

    Here, here, and here.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/22/2023 @ 10:04 am

    Sammy, you’re on your own now.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  494. A better question is why wouldn’t the states determine eligibility prior to placing a candidate on their ballots, considering the states are responsible for their election systems?

    Still better is considering that there is no national vote for president, only 51 local ones. Embrace the electoral college when it works.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  495. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/22/2023 @ 9:46 am @487

    the latest release of Win 10 is 22H2, so only 1 year or so.

    Windows 10 decided to update itself on November 12 on my home computer, but it’s Windows 10 here in the library that doesn’t let me see those links.

    They would work perfectly well on my Windows XP desktop.

    @Sammy, my statement there is that there was a trial and based on a preponderance of the evidence the justices determined that Trump is ineligible. If that’s wrong it’ll be overturned.

    here was a trial but my question is: Is there anything in Colorado that disqualifies anyone on grounds other than enough signatures or residence or anything else explicitly mentioned in Colorado law? Or at least on a general grounds of disqualification? Or are they just assuming that the 14th amendment can disqualify someone?

    The question isn’t: How can a disqualification be enforced? The answer to that is by private lawsuit brought by any voters. It does not, as in some other states, depend upon an opposing candidate challenging petitions.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  496. Poor choice of PAC name.

    They are simply advancing to the rear in strength.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  497. @493 nowhere does the 14th amendment state that those rules ineligible to hold office could not vote. Tha ks for the irrelevant distraction.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  498. Jeez that was a mistype hell…

    *Ruled, *thanks

    SamG (4e6c22)

  499. Why would anyone willingly choose to use Windows 11? The only “upgrade” that I’ve uninstalled faster was Windows Me.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  500. 499. All I said is that for this removal to be valid, somewhere in Colorado law there must be an authority to remove someone from the ballot, either because of a specific disqualification or a general statement of disqualification, and that Colorado cannot determine whether the 14th amendment disqualifies Trump. It cannot settle that question, but it can authorize someone to say that in his opinion it would disqualify someone.

    Even more so when the disqualification can be waived by a 2/3 majority of both houses in Congress.

    Even more so when you are merely electing delegates pledged to (and usually chosen) by the candidate.

    Q. Is an uncommitted slate possible?

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  501. @500 now that is a question for Colorado to determine, and to clarify if needed. Their justices appear to have ruled that this base eligibility matters, which – if upheld – sets precedent.

    Just as SCOTUS has applied civil liability protection to POTUS without any Constitutional basis. Though if we think that’s inappropriate perhaps that precedent should be tested again?

    SamG (4e6c22)

  502. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/22/2023 @ 10:17 am

    Why would anyone willingly choose to use Windows 11? The only “upgrade” that I’ve uninstalled faster was Windows Me.

    Windows 10 also has problems. It makes it very hard to see PDF files, and makes it hard to switch back and forth between different windows

    There is a taskbar on top of websites of a browser.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  503. Here, here, and here

    Those links work.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  504. It makes it very hard to see PDF files

    No, your browser does that. Turn off the “use the browser to view PDF files” option. Install a real copy of Acrobat (not “reader”), even an older one, and it works just fine.

    As far as switching Windows, again, I don’t see the issue. Not only does alt-tab still work, but you can have multiple virtual desktops, each with their own windows. Also, Win-arrow slaps windows around pretty nicely.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  505. It’s not Win 10 that’s the issue with PDFs: I use it for my work laptop and it’s fine. The question is: what browser is being used? What is its default download location set to? Is it set to auto-download to that location or prompt?

    Win11 is fine too: just move the Start menu to the left.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  506. Reader is fine, too. Acrobat costs money, and is unnecessary unless you need to do more than read or sign a PDF.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  507. There is a taskbar on top of websites of a browser.

    Try Firefox, which you can modify up the kazoo. Removing the menu bar is one simple right-click.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  508. Reader is fine, too. Acrobat costs money, and is unnecessary unless you need to do more than read or sign a PDF

    Adding, deleting or saving individual pages requires Acrobat. I use an old Acrobat 8 thing I got off of ebay for almost nothing.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  509. @502 Obviously, as disenfranchising millions was clearly an untenable option when attempting to unify the country post war. The 14th Amendment also doesn’t state anything about disqualifying a candidate who didn’t actually commit insurrection. Glad to see you’re an originalist. What is it that you find attractive about taking away the right to vote and nominate whoever law abiding citizens choose?

    lloyd (7bc10f)

  510. Important Washington Post editorial:

    For more than a decade and a half, autocracy has been steadily advancing around the globe. Dictators routinely arrest their foes, including those demanding basic rights such as freedom of expression. But they have modernized their methods, taking control of the internet and using it to broadcast disinformation while censoring the truth. They have forced independent media to close and aimed surveillance at social media and the people who use it. They have created firewalls and imposed internet shutdowns. Freedom House found in its latest annual survey of political rights and civil liberties that democracy has been in decline for 17 years — and one of the biggest drivers has been attacks on freedom of expression.

    (Link omitted.)

    As the Post notes later in the editorial, some dictators have been actively undermining democracies.

    Jim Miller (afc9a4)

  511. And the irony here is, that Congress waived the provision of the 14th amendment for ex-Confederates en masse in 1872. (and in 1869 Chief Justice Chase, sitting in circuit said think that disqualification required a conviction)

    Maybe most egregious case:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-vs-the-banana-republic-of-colorado-ballot-fourteenth-amendment-unlawful-ea982be8

    … as a congressman before the Civil War, Mr. Lamar proclaimed on the House floor that while “others may boast of their . . . love of this Union,” he felt “the promotion of Southern Interests is second in importance only to the preservation of Southern honor.” He drafted the Mississippi ordinance of secession, served in the Confederate military, was named the South’s ambassador to Russia, and served as a key aide to President Jefferson Davis. Historian Henry Adams called him one of “the worst of the Southern fire-eaters.”

    But later:

    in John F. Kennedy’s Pulitzer Prize-winning “Profiles in Courage,” one of the eight senators he chose as exemplars of political bravery was Lucius Q.C. Lamar of Mississippi, who in 1878 rejected a demand of his state Legislature that he vote for the Bland-Allison Silver Act. He survived having opposed the will of Mississippians by barnstorming the state to explain why he opposed an inflationary currency, winning re-election to the Senate “by an overwhelming majority” as “voters responded to the sincerity and courage which he had shown” in opposing the Legislature’s demand. [There was no direct election of Senators then, so something is left out here. Also of note is how the South maintained genuinely contested honest elections while illegally excluding most African Americans from voting]

    Mr. Lamar went on to serve as interior secretary [1885] and a Supreme Court justice, [1888] appointed to both by President Grover Cleveland.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  512. @513 that’s outside the scope of reading and signing, yes?

    SamG (4e6c22)

  513. @514 the amendment says what it says about eligibility for office. Our constitution is often counter majoritarian: but if you want to eliminate the Electoral College and go straight popular vote then we can agree on something!

    SamG (4e6c22)

  514. @516 following the letter of the amendment, yes.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  515. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/22/opinion/trump-colorado-ballot-ban.html

    There may well be some instances in which the very survival of a democratic regime is at stake if noxious candidates or parties are not banned, as in West Germany after World War II.

    And this should apply to both Hamas and Fatah in the Gaza Strip.

    Part of the danger lies in the fact that what actually happened on Jan. 6 — and especially Mr. Trump’s exact role beyond months of election denial and entreaties to government officials to side with him — is still too broadly contested. The Colorado court deferred to a lower court on the facts, but it was a bench trial, meaning that no jury ever assessed what happened, and that many Americans still believe Mr. Trump did nothing wrong. A Supreme Court that affirms the Colorado ruling would have to succeed in constructing a consensual narrative where others — including armies of journalists, the Jan. 6 commission and recent indictments — have failed.

    More

    Worse, it is not obvious how many would accept a Supreme Court decision that erased Mr. Trump’s name from every ballot in the land.

    Why should it affect every ballot in the land? Again what disqualifies an ineligible candidate from being listed on the ballot? And is the Supreme Court the forum, or at least the first forum, to decide whether someone is ineligible?

    There’s not much in this Op-ed.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  516. @518 The Constitution is indeed counter majoritarian, for clearly stated and intentional reasons, and in objective ways. The Electoral College is not targeted at one candidate or one party. If we want to cut to the chase and reflect what’s truly going on here, just add a checkbox to the candidate application form next to the age requirement like “No, I am not Donald Trump.” It’s much more honest. All this cloaking in legal minutiae is wasted effort.

    lloyd (7bc10f)

  517. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/22/2023 @ 9:46 am

    the [Colorado] justices determined that Trump is ineligible.

    They are not in a position to make that determination. They can only say what Colorado law says. They can interpret federal law, but first is the question whether Colorado can, for its own purposes rely on its interpretation of federal law? I think it can but it must do so knowing it is only a guess.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  518. @521 as I said, irrelevant.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  519. @522 that will be seen.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  520. lloyd (7bc10f) — 12/22/2023 @ 11:01 am

    If we want to cut to the chase and reflect what’s truly going on here, just add a checkbox to the candidate application form next to the age requirement like “No, I am not Donald Trump.” It’s much more honest.

    And constitutional for any state to do, provided its state legislature enacts it into law before the election. (unless maybe that could be construed to violate a Bill of Attainder clause, but you could say something like anyone who called for more than 3 different objections to be made in Congress to a state’s electoral votes. Or something.)

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  521. This could end with Kamala Harris doing what Mike Pence refused to do.

    It still would be a long way from working.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  522. As I’ve said before, the people trying to remove Trump from the ballot are a much bigger danger to the Republic than Trump ever was.

    lloyd (7bc10f)

  523. Ramesh Ponnuru has it right:

    This is deeply unwise. It’s self-defeating, because Republicans who react that way are letting the behavior of Trump’s opponents dictate their votes. And although the opponents have taken extraordinary measures, it’s not simply because they dislike his fans or because Trump is a threat to a nebulously defined establishment. Trump poses an extraordinary threat to the Constitution: That’s what created the opportunity for this lawsuit and supplies much of the motivation of those backing it. Voters should consider the conduct at issue in the Colorado suit disqualifying even if it is not the court’s place to say so.

    Jim Miller (1c7ed2)

  524. Are GOP voters so insane as to nominate a candidate on the basis of “F You!”? If so, it portends the end of America.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  525. As I’ve said before, the people trying to remove Trump from the ballot are a much bigger danger to the Republic than Trump ever was.

    It depends. Do we want to wait until October, when the Supreme Court rules that he cannot take office? Or December? That, I suspect would be much worse.

    The thing that you really have to consider is that all of these problems are of Trump’s own making. From the J6 event, to the TS & SCI documents, to the completely corrupt way he went about trying to falsify electoral votes, it has all emanated from Trump.

    Now he complains that he’s being persecuted. That he’s innocent. BS> He just does not want to be held responsible for his own actions. I’m so old I remember when being responsible for your own actions was a bedrock Republican belief.

    To Hell with Donald Trump.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  526. Are GOP voters so insane as to nominate a candidate on the basis of “F You!”

    They elected Joe Biden for that simpleton reason. Never underestimate idiots.

    BuDuh (d6ee90)

  527. If we want to cut to the chase and reflect what’s truly going on here, just add a checkbox to the candidate application form next to the age requirement like “No, I am not Donald Trump.” It’s much more honest.

    Oh, stop with the fukking whining.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  528. Having said all that, and expressed my utter disdain for Trump and all his works, I agree that this provision of the 14th Amendment requires a conviction of something relevant and, to my disappointment, Jack Smith has not filed those charges.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  529. in John F. Kennedy’s Pulitzer Prize-winning “Profiles in Courage”

    He also applauded the Senator who, rising from his deathbed, cast the deciding vote to acquit the anti-Reconstruction president Andrew Johnson. Far better for every Black person in American had that impeachment succeeded.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  530. I think it can but it must do so knowing it is only a guess.

    It’s a state election, not a federal one. Unless Donald Trump is being excluded due to membership in some protected class (and yes that bothers me), or contrary to Colorado law (as adjudicated by the CO Supreme Court), he’s excluded.

    I will point out that, as recently as 1960, a number of states did not place a national presidential candidate on the state’s general election ballot. He won anyway, but without the electoral votes from those states.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  531. They elected Joe Biden for that simpleton reason.

    What planet do you live on? That comment is ridiculous.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  532. GOP voters voted for Biden over Trump on the basis of “F You!”

    History has not changed.

    BuDuh (d6ee90)

  533. One measure of prices is down slightly:

    The Federal Reserve is winning its fight over inflation, boosting Americans’ spirits and offering greater reassurance that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession while bringing prices under control.

    The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, fell 0.1% in November from the previous month, the first decline since April 2020, the Commerce Department said Friday. Prices were up 2.6% on the year, not far from the Fed’s 2% target.

    And one is up slightly:

    Friday’s inflation data is calculated differently than the Labor Department’s consumer-price index, which showed prices narrowly rose last month.

    The second gets more coverage. Not being an economist, I have no idea why the Federal Reserve prefers the first. Or how accurate these first monthly results are.

    But I think on the whole the numbers are surprisingly positive. (Two potential problems for the world economy: The Houthis have managed to up the price of gasoline and natural gas, and the ChiComs may be into a recession already. Which is bad economic news for all the nations that sell things to them — including us.)

    Jim Miller (9f860e)

  534. @529 Of course they do!

    asset (5bcc99)

  535. SamG (4e6c22) — 12/22/2023 @ 7:10 a

    Core PCE inflation for the past six months is 1.9%.

    This does not take account of housing costs. Interest rates have gone up – and people planning t move need to save more and or for a longer time. That’s why “consumer confidence” (spending plans) is still low.

    Turns out it was more a “1948-1952 re-opening” than a “1970s-1980s malaise”.

    You should say 1945-48, The Inflation that Vanished. The main thing the “do-nothing” Congress was doing nothing about Dewey never knew what hit him

    Inflation now too was transitory but on a scale of a few years, It takes afew years for the supply curve to overtake the demand curve.

    1948-1952 includes several different time periods. A recession due to deflation an the Korean War inflation this time controlled by wage and price controls. Low interest rates throughout, till 1953. Then the Fed regained its independence, raised interest rates and caused a recession,

    m

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  536. Kevin M (ed969f) — 12/22/2023 @ 12:52 pm

    Unless Donald Trump is being excluded due to membership in some protected class (and yes that bothers me), or contrary to Colorado law (as adjudicated by the CO Supreme Court), he’s excluded.

    The problem is, they’re doing it on the basis that he is disqualified under federal law, without a solid basis in Colorado law for using a federal disqualification, which they have no power to make by themselves, unless Colorado law specifically says they can guess what the federal determination of Donald’s Trump’s eligibility for office eventually will be.

    I will point out that, as recently as 1960, a number of states did not place a national presidential candidate on the state’s general election ballot. He won anyway, but without the electoral votes from those states

    Mississippi. Theree was a primary foor electors in Alabama, and Kennedy electors won 5 of the 11 Democratic electtors, On top of that people could vote for ekectors separately apparently,

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  537. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_United_States_presidential_election_in_Alabama

    In Alabama, voters voted for electors individually instead of as a slate, as in the other states. Twenty-two electors were on the ballot, 11 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Voters could vote for up to eleven candidates. As a result of a state primary, the Democratic Party had a mixed slate of electors, five being pledged to Kennedy and the remaining six being unpledged.[2][3] The highest vote for a presidential elector was 324,050 votes for Frank M. Dixon, who was unpledged; the highest vote for an elector pledged to Kennedy was 318,303 for C. G. Allen, and the highest vote for a Republican elector was 237,981 for Cecil Durham, which was fewer than the vote for any Democratic elector.[2] As a result, six unpledged electors and five electors pledged to Kennedy were elected. All six elected unpledged electors cast their vote for Byrd.[4]

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  538. Fox News Sunday did a segment on the Colorado ballot ruling, It did not get into any of things I did – and gave the political consequences of disqualification as the main argument against it (also that Trump hadn’t even been accused of insurrection by any prosecutor – without giving any reasoning why not – and that the impeachment resolution failed in the Senate = formal due process)

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  539. @540 housing costs are due to lack of housing units being built – which is a local/state issue and not solvable by the Federal government.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  540. Joe Biden is a bowl of plain Cheerios.

    Trump is a bowl of potassium cyanide.

    SamG (4e6c22)

  541. Another thing totally missed on Fox News Sunday December 24, 2023:

    If the Colorado ruling stands, the Republican Party can and will ignore the primary and choose its delegates to the convention via a caucus,

    There’s unawareness of the ground rules. Maybe a lack of institutional memory, or history.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.3056 secs.