Weekend Open Thread
[guest post by Dana]
Let’s go!
First news item
An apt summation :
As I understand it, the pro-Palestinian crowd wants a cease-fire in Gaza, a cease-fire in Ukraine, and a cease-fire everywhere except in front of the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee, where they’ll punch and pepper-spray cops.
So, about last night:
Hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters clashed with Capitol Police officers outside the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington, D.C., Wednesday night.
As Democratic politicians and officials attended a campaign reception inside, the protesters began chanting and blocking the entrances and exits to the building, demanding a cease-fire.
Video of the demonstration shows Capitol Police officers struggling to drag protesters, many of whom are wearing “Ceasefire Now” shirts, away from the building. One protester was arrested for punching a cop and six officers were injured in the mayhem.
“Tonight 6 officers were treated for injuries – ranging from minor cuts to being pepper sprayed to being punched. One person has been arrested for assault on an officer. We appreciate our officers who kept these illegal & violent protesters back & protected everyone in the area,” Capitol Police said in a tweet.
Democratic Rep. Debbie Dingell, one of the congressmembers trapped inside the DNC headquarters, told the Detroit News after being unable to leave the building because the exits were blocked:
This rattled me more than January 6th (attack) did. I was scared. Someone is going to get hurt at one of these things. They can get out of control.
Also:
“They crossed the line where they were trapping ingress and egress … and trapping people,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) told Axios. “It was disturbing.”
Organizers of the protest blamed the police for reported injuries:
Injuries included being dragged down stairs, hit with police bicycles, pepper sprayed and one individual who is being treated for a concussion…
Law enforcement offered this:
U.S. Capitol Police said officers were keeping back approximately 200 people who were “illegally and violently” protesting outside the DNC building in the area of Canal and Ivy streets in southeast Washington.
“We have handled hundreds of peaceful protests, but last night’s group was not peaceful. The crowd failed to obey our lawful orders to move back from the DNC, where Members of Congress were in the building…When the group moved dumpsters in front of the exits, pepper sprayed our officers and attempted to pick up the bike rack, our teams quickly introduced consequences ― pulling people off the building, pushing them back, and clearing them from the area, so we could safely evacuate the Members and staff.”
Second news item
The White House responds to that Tik Tok video:
There is never a justification for spreading the repugnant, evil, and antisemitic lies that the leader of al Qaeda issued just after committing the worst terrorist attack in American history – highlighting them as his direct motivation for murdering 2,977 innocent Americans.
And no one should ever insult the 2,977 American families still mourning loved ones by associating themselves with the vile words of Osama bin Laden.
Particularly now, at a time of rising antisemitic violence in the world, and just after Hamas terrorists carried out the worst slaughter of the Jewish people since the Holocaust in the name of the same conspiracy theories.
Like President Biden said this year in remembrance of the Americans who lost their lives because of Osama bin Laden, “it’s more important now than ever that we come together” against a “rising tide of hatred and extremism.”
According to the report, Tik Tok is working to take the video down.
Third news item
Not all women and not all rapes are equal:
Prominent human rights campaigners in Israel say the most important women’s organizations within the United Nations have failed to give proper recognition to the massacre and mass rape carried out by Hamas on Oct. 7.
The UN Women statement from Oct. 13, failed to mention any of the atrocities and the U.N.’s Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) talked amorphically about “the gendered dimensions of conflict” without laying out the brutality inflicted on women during the horrific attack.
Yet again, the U.N. demonstrates that it is a moribund organization that plays favorites.
Despite the telling silence by the U.N., international groups joined Israel to send a letter to the international group, which at one time, spoke out forcefully against female victims of Isis, Syria, Ukrainian victims, demanding that rape crimes against Israeli victims be recognized:
About 160 Israeli and international women’s organizations have so far signed another letter, addressed to UN Women: “The terrorists documented their atrocious actions with their phones, and these films show how the terrorists who attacked the music festival raped women whose bodies are covered in blood,” the letter says. “The films taken by the terrorists who attacked the villages near the border show terrorists ripping the clothes off the women hostages, spitting on them, and sexually abusing them. Some of the women who were physically and sexually abused were kidnapped and are now prisoners of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, with no medical treatment or hygiene. The full scope of the sexual abuse of the hostages is not yet fully known and should be fully investigated according to international law.”
For more on this subject, don’t miss Jake Tapper’s detailed, yet grim, report here.
And this says it all for me:
Let me be as clear as I can: If you deny the rape of Israeli women, if you don’t speak out against the sexual assault of Israeli women bc they are Israeli, you are morally bankrupt, you are no feminist, you are no humanitarian, you are no justice seeker. Youre a monster & a fraud.
Fourth news item
Awkward (VP Harris was in the room when the President swooned over Gov. Newsom):
President Biden fueled speculation Wednesday of California Governor Gavin Newsom’s presidential plans by telling a packed room at the Asian Pacific Economic Conference (APEC) summit that the governor could have any job he wants — even the presidency.
…
“I want to talk about Gov. Newsom. Want to thank him. He’s been one hell of a governor, man. Matter of fact, he could be anything he wants. He could have the job I’m looking for,” Biden said, getting laughter from the room in response.
Newsom and Harris have been described as “frenemies”. It should also be noted that the report states that “54% of Democrats polled say they want another Democrat to challenge Biden in the next election, and 28% of those surveyed said they don’t want a new candidate for their party’s 2024 nomination.”
Also, about that shameful welcome at APEC:
This is beyond embarrassing!!
A national disgrace!!
China would never fly American flags down their streets with our national anthem in the background, so why the hell are we flying CCP flags and listening to China’s national anthem in our country?
Wake up America!! pic.twitter.com/c8wUYKs8wq
— Enes FREEDOM (@EnesFreedom) November 15, 2023
Fifth news item
A New York appeals court judge Thursday paused gag orders on Donald Trump and his lawyers that had prevented them from commenting on court staff in the civil fraud trial of the former president…
About an hour after the New York gag orders were paused, Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Trump, posted on social media attacking Allison Greenfield, the clerk, calling her a “Democrat Operative.”
Later, shortly before 7 p.m., Trump himself seized on the pause by posting a message on his Truth Social platform in which he called Greenfield “politically biased” and “out of control.”
Sixth news item
Oh:
The House Select Committee on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced on Wednesday that the owner of an illegal California biolab allegedly has close ties to the Chinese government.
According to a report shared by the House Select Committee on the PRC, Jia Bei Zhu, 62, is a wanted fugitive from Canada and a PRC citizen.
Authorities said that Zhu had previously stolen millions of dollars of intellectual property from American companies and was part of an ongoing transnational criminal enterprise with ties to the PRC.
As a reminder:
Zhu’s Universal Meditech Inc. lab in Reedley, California first raised eyebrows in December 2022 when Code Enforcement Officer Jesalyn Harper noticed a green garden hose sticking out of a hole at the facility and notified Zhu of the code violation.
Further inspection found that the dingy warehouse contained expensive laboratory equipment, manufacturing devices, and what appeared to be medical-grade freezers…several workers in lab coats who told her that they were PRC nationals… some of the freezers and containment units had glass doors…Inside, she saw thousands of vials of biological substances. Many were unlabeled. Others were labeled in Mandarin or in code.
Read the whole thing.
Seventh news item
UCLA faculty members say enough is enough:
A group of over 300 faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) signed a letter calling on the school to condemn protests “crossing the line from protected speech to unlawful incitement” amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
“We were horrified to see Pro-Palestinian rallies on campus in which the massacres by Hamas were celebrated, including explicit calls for violence (including chanting ‘Intifada’ or event advertisements featuring images of weapons/violence),” the letter reads.
“Such celebrations create an atmosphere of fear; one cannot imagine that UCLA will allow for celebrations of the killing of George Floyd, or for celebrations of the Armenian genocide, or the celebrations of the 9/11 attacks,” the letter continues. “It is inconceivable why such celebrations are not denounced by the UCLA leadership, regardless of political views.”
Eighth news item
After announcing it would close its borders with Russia, hilarity ensued:
Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Finland had chosen a path of confrontation and that Russia saw this as a mistake, state media outlet TASS reported.
One can “only express deep regret that the Finnish authorities have taken the path of destroying bilateral relations,” Peskov told reporters…
“Russia has never in modern history threatened Finland, we had no reason for any confrontation. Now they have chosen this path,” he said, adding that this was a “big mistake” in the Kremlin’s view.
Have a good weekend.
–Dana
Hello.
Dana (932d71) — 11/17/2023 @ 11:42 amMany of the the “pro-Palestine” demonstrations funding has been traced back to Neville Roy Singham and his wife Jodie Evans who now live in Shanghai China. The money was routed through shell organizations and donor advisory groups to something called the People Forum (which has a woke self description)
Singham founded a company called Thoughtworks in Chicago in 1993 and sold it in 2017 for $785 million. The Peoples Forum was set up the same year on New York. Thoughtworls is.was a software consulting company and was bought by Apax Partners.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/american-multimillionaire-couple-fund-marxist-group-coordinating-anti-israel-protests
https://nypost.pressreader.com/article/281578065395333
I wonder if Singham is really still in charge of all that money – he’s living in Shanghai.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/17/2023 @ 12:08 pmRegarding the first item, I have two thoughts:
1. It’s amazing how quickly and effectively law enforcement can clear protesters away from the DNC headquarters building, yet they can’t clear protesters away from city streets, bridges, lobbies of buildings, or anywhere the common folk tend to congregate. Imagine that.
2. Poor Debbie Dingell is absolutely going to be excoriated by her allies on the left for daring to suggest that pro-Hamas demonstrations are even in the same realm as January 6, 2021, a day which to Democrats is Ft. Sumter, the bombing of Maine, the sinking of Lusitania, and Pearl Harbor all rolled into one.
JVW (9f34b3) — 11/17/2023 @ 12:11 pmThe first influencer who promoted the 2002 bin Laden letter was Lynette Adkins who built up a following by offering make up advice. I suppose she sold out. To whom?
There were several women influencers who did that. TikTokclaimed that most of the viewers looked at her post after media wrote about it. The Guardian took down the letter and had the news article it was linked to show up but it is still on the Internet archive plus has been put up now.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/17/2023 @ 12:12 pmRE: the flag wavers for Xi – https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-china-paid-supporters-san-francisco-apec-1844295
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/17/2023 @ 12:14 pmI wonder which of the usual suspects be the first to decry this oppressive Cancel Culture” and censorship.
(To be clear, that video is stupid and awful, I’m not defending it. Just poking at our many self-described free speech warriors who claim to hate social media enforcing politically correct viewpoints when they really only care about which opinions are squelched.)
john (aff6cb) — 11/17/2023 @ 12:14 pm@3: the DCCC is also in the same building as the DNC, so Congresspeople were present making phone calls for donations and the like.
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/17/2023 @ 12:16 pmThis should infuriate everyone where the crap-weasel pro-Hamas college brats at UCLA are concerned: the first signatory of the “enough is enough” letter that Dana refers to in Item Seven is Professor Judea Pearl of the Computer Science Department. Does that name ring a bell? He is the father of Daniel Pearl, the journalist captured and beheaded by al Qaeda twenty-one years ago for the “crime” of being an American and a Jew. These spoiled brats in their dress-up keffiyehs should die from shame.
JVW (f606bb) — 11/17/2023 @ 12:17 pm@3: the DCCC is also in the same building as the DNC, so Congresspeople were present making phone calls for donations and the like.
Again, in a democratic republic where all of us have the same rights, why should Congresspeople not be subjected to the same sort of inconvenience that the rest of the country is? Why is that crooked House member not to be asked to stay in the building for a few extra hours while the protesters rage, but the some normal schlub is told they have to be stuck in their car on the Bay Bridge while the pro-Hamas brigade has their performative demonstration?
JVW (4514d7) — 11/17/2023 @ 12:21 pmIt is understandably the case that Congresspeople have police presence around the buildings they go to regularly more-so than a random street corner – or a particular section of highway – will have.
From the specifics of the Bay Bridge: you either have to get enough CHP force coming through traffic, or going the “wrong” direction from the city (’cause traffic to SF is on the upper deck, from SF is on the lower deck).
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/17/2023 @ 12:49 pmFrankly I think trapping Congresspeople inside of a building to do fundraising calls is a capital idea. It sure beats allowing them to make legislation.
JVW (b8a7fa) — 11/17/2023 @ 12:59 pmOh, and also get tow trucks for 50 cars: the “protestors” threw their keys over the side of the bridge.
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/17/2023 @ 12:59 pmhttps://www.dailywire.com/news/the-fbi-dropped-probe-of-pedophile-to-focus-on-january-6-now-hes-accused-of-abusing-10-year-old-boy
NJRob (292e70) — 11/17/2023 @ 1:24 pmItem 1: Bring back batons.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 1:50 pmAccording to the report, Tik Tok is working to take the video down.
I’m told by all right-thinking people that this is censorship.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 1:51 pmOh, and also get tow trucks for 50 cars: the “protestors” threw their keys over the side of the bridge.
Oh, I’d just throw their cars over the side, too.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 1:57 pm…or strip them for parts.
urbanleftbehind (bb55f5) — 11/17/2023 @ 2:17 pmMore reasons why non-exploitive capitalism is superior to capitalism. Balance of nature shutdown for fraud and eye drops recalled for making people blind. Government owning the means of production as in socialism doesn’t work very well either even less then unfettered capitalism. Ask the people who went blind if they think caveat emptor is great.
asset (044cdb) — 11/17/2023 @ 2:40 pmIt is, but the company has the right to do so.
Rip Murdock (c20088) — 11/17/2023 @ 2:52 pm@16 getting tough has its own problems. Government wants to keep the left mostly peaceful non violent protests so pushes gun control so left/minorities don’t have anything to shoot back with. Right wing gun nuts are individualists not collectivist so pose no real threat as we have seen for very many years. Thats is why you see numerous reruns of rambo loners battling the system. When is the last time you saw the movie battle of algiers or is paris burning? They were collective action.
asset (044cdb) — 11/17/2023 @ 2:53 pmGood news for LA commuters:
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:02 pmIt is, but the company has the right to do so.
After being told.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:12 pmMore bad news for X:
It’s not only Musk’s antisemitism driving this it’s also the fact that company advertising is appearing next pro-Nazi content on X.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:13 pm@21: There’s this one engineer who says that just adding O-rings isn’t enough, but Newsom wants it open in time for Thanksgiving.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:14 pmIt’s not only Musk’s antisemitism driving this it’s also the fact that company advertising is appearing next pro-Nazi content on X.
Hmmm … I guess that they’re dropping ads in the NYT, CNN and other pro-Hamas sites as well.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:15 pmMore reasons why non-exploitive capitalism is superior to capitalism.
That would be “capitalism” where “capital” is just something the workers spend until it’s gone.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:17 pmI’m not going to defend anyone who makes antisemitic remarks, but I caution everyone that you are only hearing that small portion of Musk’s words that the MSM chooses to convey, along with their interpretation of them.
And it’s not just Musk. The MSM’s filter on other public speakers is reliably controlled by the MSM’s attitude toward them. So, Biden says nothing but wisdom, Trump spews nothing but hate, and most speech is distorted or suppressed.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:21 pmX apparently has been losing US advertising revenue each month since Musk took over the company.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:22 pmThis is one of the reasons why TPTB are down on things like Twitter. It evades their control.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:23 pmIf X wants to be a fully independent outlet for free speech, it needs to move to an ad-free model, supporting itself through subscriptions. It’s been done in the past (e.g. CompuServe).
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:26 pmHere is the antisemitic X post (in full) that companies are reacting to.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:41 pmGiven the debt Musk took on when he bought Twitter, that’s gonna be a very expensive subscription.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/17/2023 @ 3:44 pmA Colorado state judge has ruled that Trump can remain on the state’s primary ballot:
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/17/2023 @ 4:23 pmUCLA can’t constitutionally prohibit celebrating the killing of George Floyd, JFK or Tupac. Denouncing they can do.
lurker (cd7cd4) — 11/17/2023 @ 4:55 pmI do see a White Identity thing in that, but how is it specifically antisemitic?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 5:05 pmThe missing #34.5, reposted to avoid the unfortunate word:
Here is the antisemitic X post (in full) that companies are reacting to.
OK, I’m gonna play Devil’s Advocate here. What this post says is that
1) Jews in the western world are left-leaning*.
2) They tend to favor things that left-leaning parties favor
3) One of these things is open borders and unfettered immigration
4) The folks who favor those things (and especially the second- and third-world Immigrants involved) don’t also favor Israel, particularly now.
5) The poster expresses shädenfreude.
The poster MAY be antisemitic, or just expressing irony. I don’t see it as an obvious thing from the X post in question. Maybe some other post by this guy would make that clearer, but I don’t get it from here.
————
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 5:08 pm* this is part of the community-based culture that has served them well for quite some time
UCLA can’t constitutionally prohibit celebrating the killing of George Floyd, JFK or Tupac. Denouncing they can do.
They might be able to prohibit the use of UCLA facilities, property or equipment to do so.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 5:11 pmWallace said she was keeping Trump on the ballot because the 14th Amendment’s “insurrectionist ban” does not apply to presidents.
That’s weak and we all know it’s weak. It is a lot easier to rule that way on the basis that there has been no due process or showing of evidence and/or that it’s not a state function.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 5:13 pmGiven the debt Musk took on when he bought Twitter, that’s gonna be a very expensive subscription.
There are over 500 million active daily users on X. At $10/year, that’s $5 billion, which covers the note and operations.
But suppose he imposes a $10/month fee and that drops the number of users to 100 million? That’s $12 billion a year, which is plenty.
And there is probably a happier price point in between.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 5:18 pmX might also benefit from the gym-membership syndrome, where they get a monthly fee from non-users.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 5:20 pmX might also benefit from the gym-membership syndrome, where they get a monthly fee from non-users.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 5:20 pm
This why small gyms were angry at Big Gym for not being forceful anti-quarantine advocates at the onset of the pandemic in Spring 2020. Big Gym makes it’s membership money in December and January from resolutioneers and spring breakers, where as small gym depends much more on word of mouth and passerby.
urbanleftbehind (bb55f5) — 11/17/2023 @ 5:26 pmOnly if UCLA prohibits every other campus group from using their facilities/property/equipment.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/17/2023 @ 5:57 pmUCLA can’t constitutionally prohibit celebrating the killing of George Floyd, JFK or Tupac. Denouncing they can do.
That, and the utterly banal invocation of “hate speech,” were my major quibbles with the letter, which I otherwise thought was pretty good. But of course you’ve gotta expect a letter emanating from campus faculty to come from at best a center-left perspective.
JVW (ffdc87) — 11/17/2023 @ 6:10 pmThe Supreme Court has said the President is not an “Officer of United States” so it flows that Section Three does not apply to him:
Reformatted for clarity. I bet if any of the cases challenging Trump’s eligibility under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment reaches the Supreme Court, they will reach a similar conclusion.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/17/2023 @ 6:14 pmI support Israel’s right to kill hamas ;but not women & chilldren despite netanyahu and likuds evilness. This evil person is now having Israeli intelligence spy on muslum americans and others who are critical of him here in America! The front group Israel on campus (I.C.C.) Their stated purpose is to crush opposition to Israel and netanyahu. (the nation)
asset (23af75) — 11/17/2023 @ 6:15 pmhttps://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/11/cdc-ccp.php
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/17/2023 @ 6:38 pmConsidering what Soros funds and that the left claims criticism of him is anti-Semitic… yet they support Hamas.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/17/2023 @ 6:44 pmhttps://www.azfamily.com/2023/11/16/man-critically-injured-after-shooting-glendale/
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/17/2023 @ 6:59 pmMore from the Colorado decision (page 99) why Trump is not an “officer of the United States” and thus is not covered by Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment:
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/17/2023 @ 7:04 pmhttps://www.politico.com/video/2023/11/17/jill-stein-calls-out-meta-after-being-banned-for-israel-comments-1142097
What is it about leftists that makes them believe Hamas propaganda and claim obvious lies like saying Israel is guilty of war crimes for attacking Al-Shifia hospital?
That’s the Green Party candidate Jill Stein for ya.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/17/2023 @ 7:17 pmFlashback:
Won’t they be surprised.
BuDuh (f26939) — 11/17/2023 @ 8:20 pmOnly if UCLA prohibits every other campus group from using their facilities/property/equipment.
“Fear of violence”
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 10:13 pmAny reasonable uncramped reading of the disqualification clause, and the reasons underlying it, would demand that anyone taking an oath to “preserve, protect and defend” the Constitution who, after doing so engaged in insurrection nevertheless is covered by the clause.
This is the kind of Talmudic pettifogging that lawyers seem to love, but it’
s really an artificial construct and beyond the intention of the authors.
A better case can be made that the exclusion of the President was because the entire clause pertained only to the Civil War and Lincoln did not engage in rebellion.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/17/2023 @ 10:22 pm@50 Thats my candidate for 2024 if AOC doesn’t run. This is like 2016 older liberal said hold your nose and vote for clinton we have to stop trump! I and other progressives said voting for clinton is to high a price to pay to stop trump. Like older liberals I am holding my nose and supporting Israel to get rid of hamas despite netanyahu’s corruption and the likud party being evil racists. But younger progressives who think netanyahu/likud and Israel are all the same thing are supporting palestine and in some cases hamas. I am trying to educate the young progressives the difference between netanyahu and Israel ;but the netanyahu supporter’s name calling to push this corrupt evil person hurts Israel.
asset (23af75) — 11/17/2023 @ 10:42 pmJudges do not choose the Presidential candidate any more than they choose the President. And not in a case of first impression.
It’s called judicial restraint and they let the status remain quo unless the law positively, absolutely demands that they alter it.
nk (e93351) — 11/18/2023 @ 4:56 amSpaceX launch appears successful, despite RUD of booster after separation.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:25 amI’m thinking that Biden is about to drop out and endorse Newsom.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:27 amIt’s called judicial restraint and they let the status remain quo unless the law positively, absolutely demands that they alter it.
Fast forward to Jan 2025, where the new Democrat House refuses to certify the election of thrice-convicted Donald Trump, based on their “reading” of the 14th Amendment.
Crowd control outside is a problem.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:32 amAnd, BTW, Biden carried Colorado by a 13.5% margin in 2020. If you were a Democrat (judge or not) why would you want anybody other than Trump as the Republican candidate?
Yeah, real kudos, Trump lawyers! You really climbed an Everest there!
nk (e93351) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:39 am@6 “To be clear, that video is stupid and awful, I’m not defending it. Just poking at our many self-described free speech warriors who claim to hate social media enforcing politically correct viewpoints when they really only care about which opinions are squelched.“
If the video wasn’t embarrassing to the Left and the politically correct, it would still be up. The fact that The Guardian took down its translation of the letter, on which the video is based, should be a clue.
lloyd (60b0e8) — 11/18/2023 @ 8:25 amBiden not likely to be charged in documents probe -WSJ
Rule of Law tears are flowing
lloyd (60b0e8) — 11/18/2023 @ 8:29 amThe Rule of Law is like a bar of soap. It’s wasted on a pig.
Trump got every break after he got caught, and still kept spitting on it. The Rule of Law.
Biden only needed to be told once.
nk (dc2543) — 11/18/2023 @ 9:03 amSo, went back to bed before the 2nd stage exploded. Unknown reason at this point. It was 90 miles up.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 9:13 amThe Rule of Law is like a bar of soap. It’s wasted on a pig.
So, a pig exception to the Rule? Are there others?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 9:14 amNot that Biden should be charged.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 9:17 amBiden only needed to be told once.
He could have immediately declassified them. Just by thinking about it, right?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 9:19 amSo, a pig exception to the Rule? Are there others?
No exception. Sub-rule: The law does not require the performance of a pointless act.
nk (dc2543) — 11/18/2023 @ 9:27 amMy thoughts on the 14th amendment section 3 opinions:
1. I agree with nk that judges want to step lightly when rulings might intrude upon the vote, especially here when the text has some ambiguity.
2. It still strikes me as odd that the framers of the 14th would not want insurrectionists as Senators or House members or Presidential electors…but they are ambivalent about the President or VP being an insurrectionist. So you arrive at the awkward conclusion that an insurrectionist that could not run for the Senate COULD instead run for the Presidency. I get the textual evidence, but it still kind of arrives at an absurd conclusion.
3. I’ve not read the Baude article…there didn’t seem to be a free convenient copy when I last looked (ssrn involved some work)…so I haven’t been able to consider his analysis of what constitutes an insurrection, especially since it appears that his proposed interpretation does not require a conviction. Though I believe that Trump’s action surrounding J6 scream impeachment and likely satisfy the elements of obstructing a congressional proceeding, I’m not so sure it’s easy to prove…beyond a reasonable doubt….insurrection. The other shoe dropping with the invocation of the insurrection act and declaring martial law might be more persuasive evidence.
AJ_Liberty (1295e6) — 11/18/2023 @ 9:39 amAJ,
It is number two that gets me to reject the “it applies today, but not to the President” line of argument. As I said, it’s Talmudic hair-spitting. As you said, it leads to an absurdity. One presumes that, if intended, that absurdity would have come up in Congressional debate at some point, but no one has remarked on that.
One way out would be to say that it only applied to the Civil War, but they could easily have said that and didn’t, so that’s not a happy conclusion either.
The only thing left is that the term that was used was not intended to exclude the Executive and that reading that into the article leads to a reducio ad absurdum. Which in math is a fine disproof.
As I said also, there are far better reasons for state courts to back off: the principle behind “fools rush in”, and the lack of a due-process finding of fact regarding “insurrection” or anything lit it.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 9:54 am*anything like it
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 9:56 amI don’t agree, however, that state courts CANNOT get involved. Presidential elections are state affairs, they only become federal at the Electoral College.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 10:22 amThe DOJ has held since 1973 that a sitting president cannot be indicted, so this no surprise.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 10:37 am
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 10:41 amI would expect that Trump’s reelection will be confirmed by the Electoral College, with the new House attempting to impeach him a third time.
I would expect that Trump’s reelection will be confirmed by the Electoral College
Assuming that no one challenges the vote because he’s an insurrectionist. Bet you someone does.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 10:43 am@74:
But can a president-elect be imprisoned for a previous conviction?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 10:44 amWaPo/Monmouth University NH Poll-11/17/23
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 11:05 amI assume any challenges will be overcome by Senate and House Republican majorities.
Rip Murdock (4d3f1c) — 11/18/2023 @ 11:08 amI assume so since a President-Elect isn’t president until the after the oath is taken, but I don’t expect Trump to be jailed after any conviction. He will probably remain free pending sentencing and appeals.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 11:17 amIn Good Second Amendment News:
Paragraph breaks added.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 11:35 amI assume so since a President-Elect isn’t president until the after the oath is taken, but I don’t expect Trump to be jailed after any conviction. He will probably remain free pending sentencing and appeals.
Let’s take that one step further. Let’s assume that one or more sentence has been handed down, and there are appeals. Do the appeals and other legal action have to freeze when he takes the oath? If not, does an affirmed sentence mean that he is incapable of performing his duties? Is this 25th Amendment stuff, or just a normal nightmare?
To me, these are all reasons why the GOP is out of its flipping gourd for nominating him. Someone else, please.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 1:38 pmIn Good Second Amendment News
These are all better cases than the violent nogoodnik whose case is currently before the Supremes.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 1:40 pmUnfortunately it looks like the SC will uphold the ban on firearm possession by those with domestic violence restraining orders (let alone a conviction), without a court considering the seriousness of the level of violence and the likelihood of repetition.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 1:53 pmAs far as the federal cases go, Trump will just pardon himself, so those cases will end. I would think the DOJ would intervene to freeze the state cases in place.
I really doubt cabinet members picked by Trump would invoke the 25th Amendment. Their first loyalty would be to him.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 1:59 pmDespite the fact that there is no historical analog of domestic violence perpetrators being banned from possessing firearms, as required by the Bruen decision.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 2:08 pmIsrael orders doctors and patients leave to hospital in one hour or face the consequences told to leave 34 premature babies (3 have died and most of the rest will soon). global news
asset (87e93a) — 11/18/2023 @ 3:15 pmit looks like the SC will uphold the ban on firearm possession by those with domestic violence restraining orders
Those where the subject has BEEN violent and there is a finding of fact, yes. The plaintiff in the suit is quite unappealing.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 3:26 pmDespite the fact that there is no historical analog of domestic violence perpetrators being banned from possessing firearms, as required by the Bruen decision.
I think that the Bruen rule is going to see some modification as it’s not all that workable as it stands. And some leftist judges have been playing games with “historical analogs.”
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 3:28 pmTrump will just pardon himself
He cannot. The Founders never considered that as being possible, even though they talked for several days about the danger of the pardon power in the hands of a criminal executive.
It’s an abuse of power and would lead to not only a SC rebuke, but another impeachment. Guinness!!
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 3:30 pmSome here complain about the jan.6 rioters being overcharged and I happen to be one of them because my side gets overcharged all the time. 61 protesters in atlanta who oppose the building of cop city are being prosecuted under the rico statute like the mafia. If this doesn’t stop what do you think we will do when AOC and the squad get control of the justice department and state prosecutors like alvin bragg in ny.
asset (87e93a) — 11/18/2023 @ 3:31 pmRecords of the Federal Convention:
https://oll.libertyfund.org/title/farrand-the-records-of-the-federal-convention-of-1787-3vols
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 3:34 pmasset, I don’t see the J6 protesters as being overcharged, with a few exceptions (the theft charge for taking an envelope was a bit much).
Overcharging can be by trumping up misdemeanors to felonies, but it can also be repeated charges for a continuing crime, like charging an embezzler for each false entry then threatening to have them all run consecutively.
The NY/Stormy Daniels case against Trump is an example of both.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 3:38 pmThe problem is, who would have standing to challenge a self-pardon in the courts? That would be the only way for the Supreme Court to address it. Just because the founders never considered a presidential self-pardon as possible does not mean it can’t be done.
Abuses of presidential power can be remedied by impeachment.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 3:43 pmJust because the founders never considered a presidential self-pardon as possible does not mean it can’t be done.
It would lead to a major constitutional crisis. If no one has standing then there are other things that a willful president could do, like canceling elections or arresting the Court itself.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 3:49 pmThere is nothing in Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 that prevents a presidential self-pardon. If the founders wanted to prevent it, they would have included that in Constitution.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 3:55 pmThat’s true, and constitutional crises can be resolved by impeachment.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 3:57 pmI thought elections were run by the states? And rather than arresting the Supreme Court, they would probably rubber stamp the Administration’s actions. 😏
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 4:04 pmIf the founders wanted to prevent it, they would have included that in Constitution.
My that’s a might big hole you’ve opened.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 4:10 pmI thought elections were run by the states?
Yes, and a good thing, eh?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 4:12 pmIt’s been there since 1789.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 4:16 pmIf any president committed a parade of horribles like arresting members of Congress or the Supreme Court (or perceived “enemies” in media, for example), no doubt there be resistance among federal law enforcement and the military, as their oath is to the Constitution and not the president.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 4:21 pmYes, but would a self-pardon do it? Clearly there is harm done, can no one sue? A governor, for his state, claiming that failure to uphold the Constitution does his state harm?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 4:28 pmAnd an insurrection or military coup does not seem to be the best way to defend the Constitution. The Court would find someone had standing somehow.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 4:29 pmKevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 9:54 am
They were thinking only of the Civil War, but they wrote general language, as a little bit of a deterrent in the future, but they didn’t expect another insurrection or rebellion, and the reason the president or vice president was not included was probably because of the thought that nobody who fit the description would be elected to those national offices anyway, or if there was someone of whom it could be argued that did, that would be a case in which you would want to waive the disability.
The only thing left is that the term that was used was not intended to exclude the Executive and that reading that into the article leads to a reducio ad absurdum. Which in math is a fine disproof.
As I said also, there are far better reasons for state courts to back off: the principle behind “fools rush in”, and the lack of a due-process finding of fact regarding “insurrection” or anything lit it.
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/18/2023 @ 4:53 pmThey would have had to add a few words to include the president and vice president, like they did for Electors.
Maybe the problem was that the president is not chosen the same way.
This was something that could only happen in certain states
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/18/2023 @ 4:59 pmTyler did, but he was dead.
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:03 pmOne thing that won’t happen is a Russian boycott of Finnish vodka, though maybe the putinista brain trust may invade Finland to secure the vodka- and then, being Russians, they’d ruin the product
steveg (e33e02) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:07 pmbecause of the thought that nobody who fit the description would be elected to those national offices anyway, or if there was someone of whom it could be argued that did, that would be a case in which you would want to waive the disability.
1. The Founders DID consider it on September 15, 1787 (Farrand volume 2)
2. It’s odd that no one mentioned the fact they were doing this in 1866.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:32 pmTyler did, but he was dead.
What a sad sack Tyler was. At one point he had TWO open SC seats that he could not fill. The Senate ignored him. “His Accidency”
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:34 pmThey would have had to add a few words to include the president and vice president, like they did for Electors.
No, they would have had to expect Talmudic scholars to be analyzing their simple words to death, looking for loopholes.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:35 pmWe’ll see.
Rip Murdock (4d3f1c) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:39 pmUCLA Bruins trash USC Trojans 38-20.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:40 pmHopefully not.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:47 pmBreaking-
Israel and Hamas reach tentative U.S.-brokered deal to pause conflict, free dozens of hostages
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/18/2023 @ 5:54 pm@92 you say you don’t see then prove my point with examples.
asset (8cc5da) — 11/18/2023 @ 6:17 pm@99 a good thing very rarely. bad thing most of the time like preventing the other side from voting and gerrymandering. That is where the term comes from.
asset (8cc5da) — 11/18/2023 @ 6:20 pmBottom story of the day: GOP cleans up in Louisiana.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/18/2023 @ 6:23 pmBefore 2016 election who would be blogging about a dictator running america? Ban bin ladin letter to america. Why? If lie refute it and point out the lies to tiktokers. If he is telling the truth that 9-11 was a counter attack then maybe you will have to ban.
asset (8cc5da) — 11/18/2023 @ 6:28 pmIlya Somin at Volokh on the Colorado 14th Amendment case.
lurker (cd7cd4) — 11/19/2023 @ 12:01 amThis part was good, lurker.
The CO supreme court should take this out of Judge Wallace’s hands and re-address the question.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/19/2023 @ 7:08 amJudge Wallace “agrees that there are persuasive arguments on both sides.” If so, she should have picked the one that does not lead to absurdity.
Like I said above, a good judge picks the one that does not disturb the status quo. And a good Democrat picks the one that makes it more likely for Biden to carry Colorado. Twofer!
nk (dc2543) — 11/19/2023 @ 7:16 amBiden’s policy toward Iran is unnervingly and wrongly too aligned with Obama’s policy, which is to appease the de facto theocratic regime in order to get a nuclear deal, and the all the while doing next to nothing to stop their belligerence and their export of terrorism across the Middle East, including Gaza.
Part of Biden’s appeasement policy is his $10 billion sanctions waiver, noted here.
Goldberg busts five other Biden myths on the issue. Eh.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/19/2023 @ 7:38 amMy #5 Huskies survived #11 Oregon State, at Corvallis, so we’re still in the hunt for the 4-team playoff. We’ve beaten four ranked teams this season, so we have the strength of schedule, but I’m worried about a Husky-Duck rematch.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/19/2023 @ 7:46 amI don’t really see where Somin confronts the extremely high bar of Brandenburg with respect to incitement.
Yes, Trump frequently laces his rhetoric with toughness and fighting, but it usually stays pretty generic. Here, it’s not like he was telling people to siege the Capitol, apprehend Pelosi at whatever cost, and hang Mike Pence if he doesn’t cooperate. One might also argue that the Proud Boys were already set to act before the speech. People don’t normally bring zip ties and bear spray to listen to the President.
It’s not like Trump went down to the Capitol with a bullhorn and was continuing to egg the crowd into lawlessness. OK, he tried but the Secret Service and his staff once again saved him from himself.
However, it’s telling that Jack Smith chose not to prosecute Trump for insurrection. If there was a good evidenciary link to Trump and pre-planning, maybe we would have seen it. Do I believe that Bannon had some finger in the preparations that the Proud Boys made with bringing gear and weapons? Yep. Do I think Trump would have learned of it? Yep. Can they prove it? Doesn’t look like it.
I understand that insurrections don’t have to be well planned or have a high probability of success, but this one had legs to at best delay the inevitable. At best if the fake elector scheme had hatched due to the Capitol siege, we would have likely saw a 9-0 slap down by the Supreme Court. Now if the insurrection act has been invoked and a quasi-martial law imposed to ratchet up the chaos, then we have more evidence against Trump’s actual involvement. As it stands, there was never much threat that the government would fall….though other laws had been violated.
I think Ilya Somin is animated by motivated reasoning with regards to the insurrection question. He wants Trump gone and his compatriot Baude gave us a convenient roadmap. Maybe too convenient in my estimation.
AJ_Liberty (ff1e26) — 11/19/2023 @ 7:55 amBiden’s policy toward Iran is unnervingly and wrongly too aligned with Obama’s policy, which is to appease the de facto theocratic regime in order to get a nuclear deal
It operates logically from a terrible postulate. If the nuclear deal is seen as the only fixed point in the process, then everything follows from that.
The irony, of course, is that the nuclear deal is not only not a good idea, but destructive of any non-proliferation regime. At some point the US needs to take military action to defend the NNPT and the longer it takes the bloodier the outcome will be.
I blame Jimmy Carter.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:05 amWe’ll see what Hur says in his report, but it sounds like Biden’s possession of classified materials didn’t meet the threshold of “willful retention” under the Espionage Act. The question is why it took a year for him to come to this conclusion.
Trump’s willful retention of the national defense materials he took to his country club is beyond dispute, as the FBI search made clear.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:19 amI think that the best case for Trump being an insurrectionist is his obstinate delay in either calling his supporters to stand down, or in allowing federal reinforcements to be sent to the Capitol.
His advisers and his family repeatedly pleaded with him to act, and instead he sat and watched the insurrection play out on TV, apparently with approval.
Only after the insurrection failed did he ask his people to leave.
Is that enough? Not for Jack Smith, obviously. Is that because he believes it wasn’t insurrection, or because he wants to play it safe? Worse, is it because he fears he might lose AND wants to try the issue in the press and the political sphere?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:22 amas the FBI search made clear.
As Trump’s attempts to hide the material, after its return was requested, made clear.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:23 amAs for the Rule of Law, presidents and former presidents are given great deference and the benefit of the doubt. Trump pissed all over that.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:25 amI completely agree with that, but Judge Wallace is not a “good judge” because she cracked open the door with her long exposition about Trump being “engaged” in the insurrection. There had to be other better reasons to maintain the status quo.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:25 amPersonally, I’d be in favor of denying Trump on state ballots if he was at least charged for seditious conspiracy (but preferably convicted), like his Proud Boy compatriots.
iPads on deep discount today.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:29 amPersonally, I’d be in favor of denying Trump on state ballots if he was at least charged for seditious conspiracy (but preferably convicted)
That whole due process thing seems important.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:29 am“Is that because he believes it wasn’t insurrection, or because he wants to play it safe?”
I think it’s what he can prove beyond a reasonable doubt. Could he charge lesser officials, get them to roll on Trump, and develop more evidence? Perhaps, but he has him pretty well now on conspiracy to obstruct and he can push forward without adding mucho delay waiting to try others.
The sad thing remains is that this should have been resolved through impeachment and conviction. The GOP lost its soul and have been stuck in a sort of purgatory ever since. If you don’t impeach, then you at minimum don’t re-nominate. You don’t rationalize the entirety as just like BLM violence and end with a big harumpf. Again, soul crushing.
AJ_Liberty (ff1e26) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:45 amIf you don’t impeach, then you at minimum don’t re-nominate.
The GOP is a coalition party now, with MAGA and Republican wings. Coalitions do stupid things and cannot afford principles.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:49 amIt doesn’t solve the underlying problem that too many GOP voters still want him as their candidate. West Virginia and Louisiana Republicans want Trump. They’re not going to kick him off the ballot. Only states solidly Democratic will try and purge him and what does that accomplish really?
Unfortunately, it appears that Trump will need to be beaten once more at the polls…hopefully by a good margin. But there’s still a lot of uncertainty in terms of the economy, world instability, and Biden’s health. The longer term transformation of the GOP away from Trump and populism doesn’t appear to be quick. But losing is the starting point…..along with findings of guilt. I remain hopeful that we will see a begrudging shift.
AJ_Liberty (ff1e26) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:00 amFortunately this eye rolling argument wasn’t accepted by Judge Wallace in Colorado:
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:05 amAJ_Liberty (ff1e26) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:00 am
Well, if properly taken advantage of, and the Republicans don’t put some other name on the ballot in any state that doesn’t allow the name Donald Trump to appear on the ballot in the general election, it could create an opening for a third party candidate.
But Trump would also have to lose some Republican leaning or swing states to throw the election into the House of Representatives.
Different candidates need to come in second in red and blue states s in pre-election polls – but there should be only one third party candidate for vice president- maybe Doug Burgum or Lisa Murkowski
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:14 am@126 “We’ll see what Hur says in his report, but it sounds like Biden’s possession of classified materials didn’t meet the threshold of “willful retention” under the Espionage Act.”
That is one part of the Espionage Act. Here’s the part of the Act that’s relevant:
It’s certainly easy to forget about the “gross negligence” part. It was dismissed for HRC, then miraculously revived for Trump in the days before “willful retention” was alleged, then suddenly dismissed again for Biden. The Rule of Law can be really hard to nail down sometimes, but it’s guardians somehow find a way.
lloyd (1da7ae) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:41 amIt seems like the management of classified documents needs to reconceived. There shouldn’t be classified documents in Biden’s garage. They should be in a scif or safe…or returned if they’ve exceeded their need. Yes, Trump is worse because he willfully withheld the documents and obstructed their retrieval, but it seems a bit haphazard how the documents are returned and when the archive enforced their retrieval. Clean it up!
AJ_Liberty (ff1e26) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:48 amOn further thought, regarding Hur and Biden, and I’m spitballing here, but I think the issue wasn’t about “willful retention”, because Biden isn’t the kind of egomaniac who would be sitting in his UPenn office, waving classified documents around in front of an adoring but security-clearance-lacking audience.
Rather, the issue was about whether his acquisition and possession of the materials was “gross negligence”, which is a crime, because the classified materials were found in two locations, which sounds awfully negligent. It would’ve been an easier if it was an either-or, either they were in his office or in his personal residence.
Or whether, a la Comey wrt Hillary, he was “extremely careless”, which sounds bad but has no legal standing. I can fully believe that Biden is incompetent, with an incompetent staff that was handling–more accurately, mishandling–the documents he had when he was VP. It could’ve taken some time to figure out which side Biden fell on, or which side Biden felon.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:49 amBTW, I wrote my comment before seeing lloyd’s.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:50 amAs I recall, there were no SCIF-worthy documents at his house, they were at his office, which is no consolation.
BTW, any questions about Hamas having tunnels at Al Shifa Hospital have been answered, and the answer is yes, the Hamas terrorists had them.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/19/2023 @ 10:03 amAny of the lawyers present care to provide free legal education by explaining what “gross negligence” has been understood to mean but the courts based on precedent?
Time123 (cf8dbc) — 11/19/2023 @ 10:55 amUniversity of North Florida Republican Primary Poll 11/7/23
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 12:09 pmRIP former First Lady Rosalynn Carter (96).
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 12:26 pmFrom Cornell Law: https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/gross_negligence#
SamG (4e6c22) — 11/19/2023 @ 12:36 pmMore from the FAU Poll:
Even More:
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 12:53 pmI understand that GOP voters don’t think Trump did anything wrong….in any of the four cases, but the polling would be more informative as to what they believe Trump’s chances will be if he is convicted in the conspiracy to obstruct case….and then is knee-deep in racketeering charges in Georgia. The amount of negative advertising will be overwhelming. And if all of this follows more bad news concerning E. J. Carroll’s next round and his book-cooking fraud case, how exactly do you win back suburban women and hold independents in swing states? I get that the GOP simply does not want to deal with reality….the bubble mentality is strong. But absent some economic catastrophe or an unwelcome expansion of either ongoing war or a Biden health collapse, Trump’s numbers will only go down in a head-to-head contest.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/19/2023 @ 1:24 pmI think the Bruen decision was fine; any courts caught “playing games” with history can be corrected by the appeals courts and the Supreme Court.
Rip Murdock (4d3f1c) — 11/19/2023 @ 1:31 pmIt‘s looking more likely that the federal and Georgia cases will still not have started or will still be ongoing by Nov. 5, 2024.
I don’t think anyone cares about any of the NY cases. They are background noise; and will in any event be under appeal for years. They are baked in.
Rip Murdock (4d3f1c) — 11/19/2023 @ 1:41 pmYou may find this documentary interesting:
It is an hour and forty minutes long.
BuDuh (a4de66) — 11/19/2023 @ 1:45 pmIn any event my guess (absent of any facts to the contrary) is the Republican primary campaign will be over after the Florida primary (March 19, 2024.)
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 1:45 pmHaley flops on abortion again:
The ever shifting sands of Haley’s principles. Would she support a law that required segregated schools, for example, because “Whatever the people decide, you should do”?
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 2:04 pmThat’s two unforced errors in one week: first, her plan to “de-anonymize” the Internet and now this. She should have said “no”and repeated her position about “lack of consensus” but she needed to be all things to all people.
Haley has no chance of winning in Iowa (Trump is +33 over her), so her response was embarrassing and will hurt her in New Hampshire (-28 behind Trump).
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 2:19 pmUnfortunately, it appears that Trump will need to be beaten once more at the polls…hopefully by a good margin.
There is still a window for a single opposition primary candidate.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 2:58 pmI get that the GOP simply does not want to deal with reality….the bubble mentality is strong
I don’t see it that way. I think they are caught between two “realities” — that Trump controls half the party and that Trump is a felon. Until someone bells the cat, they are going to keep hiding in their holes.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 3:03 pmany courts caught “playing games” with history can be corrected by the appeals courts and the Supreme Court.
I have studied enough history to know that, unlike engineering or even law, it’s mostly in the eye of the beholder. See Zinn, Howard.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 3:05 pmI don’t think anyone cares about any of the NY cases.
And both will eventually break for Trump. The fraud case judge is manifestly political and the AG ran on “getting Trump.” The Stormy case is 3 misdemeanors and nothing more.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 3:07 pmIn any event my guess (absent of any facts to the contrary) is the Republican primary campaign will be over after the Florida primary (March 19, 2024.)
When Trump and Nikki take all the votes in Iowa and NH, it could become a two person race. The question is whether Nikki can come close enough either place to continue. She is going to be spending a LOT of money in December and January, and the others will be starved for funds.
Results like 50-30-10-5-5 would mean it’s possible. If Trump has 40 points on everyone in Iowa and NH, it won’t even get to Florida.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 3:12 pmThe crazy haired dude on Argentina pulled it off.
urbanleftbehind (bb55f5) — 11/19/2023 @ 3:38 pmThe crazy haired dude on Argentina pulled it off.
Good, because otherwise it would have been rigged, right?
Libertarian is now “far right” and “Progressive” is mainstream.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 3:41 pmThere is no “Right” just “Left-leaning”, “Moderate” and “Far Right”
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 3:42 pmhttps://www.igor-chudov.com/p/the-army-is-begging-unvaccinated
How’s recruiting going?
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/19/2023 @ 4:22 pmWhen Trump and Nikki take all the votes in Iowa and NH, it could become a two person race. …….
Results like 50-30-10-5-5 would mean it’s possible. If Trump has 40 points on everyone in Iowa and NH, it won’t even get to Florida.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 3:12 pm
LOL! There’s no evidence that all the non-Trump vote will consolidate around her; I daresay the second choices of DeSantis and Ramaswamy voters will be Donald Trump. It will become even more of a one-person race. Christie and the Lilliputians are a microscopic sliver of voters.
When I said “ the Republican primary campaign will be over after the Florida primary” I was being generous. It will probably be over after Super Tuesday (March 5th).
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 4:36 pmIt’s an hour and forty minutes I’d rather not spend. I read this sympathetic account and it doesn’t change the ME’s under-oath testimony.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/19/2023 @ 4:49 pmThe history used in the challenges (and defense) in firearms cases have been laws enacted during the colonial period through the late nineteenth century. This is completely appropriate to determine the historic treatment of any firearms regulation.
As I posted here, there is no historic evidence that governments enacted a complete prohibition on citizens from owning firearms if convicted of drunkenness. They were temporarily disarmed while inebriated, but after sobering up they retained their Second Amendment rights. This is why the current ban, enacted in 1961, should be unconstitutional.
This equally applies to those under domestic violence orders. As far as I know, these orders are issued without an adversary hearing that allows one to challenge the alleged facts in the order application.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 4:55 pmLOL! There’s no evidence that all the non-Trump vote will consolidate around her
There’s no evidence of any damn thing that might happen in January, so you’re right there.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 5:05 pmthere is no historic evidence that governments enacted a complete prohibition on citizens from owning firearms
All guns were forbidden in Tombstone in the late 1800’s. There’s one historic example. There are more. There are several cases going forwards where leftist judges have found lots of arguments for limits and bans.
The Rahimi case is a problem as the SC is going to find that dangerous people — and not just felons — can be prohibited from having guns. They may have a problem with the historical examples as assh0les with a flintlock pistol are a different kettle of fish than assh0les with a Glock 19.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 5:12 pmTruth be told, Rip, there is very little evidence that anything you say will come to pass — you rely on nothing changing and all current information remaining static, which is just about the only thing that will NEVER happen.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 5:13 pmRight back at you, sport. Your speculations are based on nothing but your wishful thinking.
Rip Murdock (4d3f1c) — 11/19/2023 @ 5:24 pmA selective editing of what I wrote. There is no evidence of state laws permanently banning drunks from possessing firearms after they sobered up. What happened in Tombstone is irrelevant.
Do you think someone who was convicted of drunk driving once in their lifetime should lose their Second Amendment rights forever.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 5:30 pmApparently you have the gift of seeing into the future, otherwise you wouldn’t say without qualification:
Ron, Chris, and Vivek might disagree.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 5:38 pmIowa State University/Civiqs Poll 11/16/23
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Rip Murdock (e67617) — 11/19/2023 @ 6:00 pm@Rip@171 if you are in prison for more than a year for drunk driving, you’ve been convicted way more than once.
Nic (896fdf) — 11/19/2023 @ 6:06 pmAll guns were forbidden in Tombstone in the late 1800’s.
Deputy Sheriff Bill Tilghman had imposed it in Dodge City before that. Scalia and Kennedy both have a good discussions of gun control in England and America in D.C. v. Heller.
nk (dc3819) — 11/19/2023 @ 6:10 pmNoted.
BuDuh (ed358d) — 11/19/2023 @ 7:23 pm“It‘s looking more likely that the federal and Georgia cases will still not have started or will still be ongoing by Nov. 5, 2024.”
https://thehill.com/opinion/4299405-could-trumps-delay-at-all-costs-legal-strategy-actually-work/
Well, March 4th is still the go-date for the J6 trial, which is anticipated to go 6 weeks. Even if you delay it a month and double its length, they’re done by Independence Day, 10 days before the GOP convention. DC will not exactly be an easy place for Trump to win.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/17/trump-georgia-trial-date/
Latest news was that the Georgia case was targeted for August 5th. That certainly could be a 6 months case….but that would mean September and October would be the heart of the prosecution’s case. Any sane prognosticator would say that is bad news for Trump….especially if he was already convicted in July.
I can see delays in the classified documents case but few are counting on that one to start before the election. You just need its specter hanging over the election. Trump self pardons are at best wish casting. No man should sit on his own jury is a bedrock principle. Are voters really going to count on the Supreme Court saving Trump’s bacon? Again moderates and independents? Why will they tilt for a convicted felon facing even more counts? Push comes to shove, Trump will get rejected rather than trying to stress test the system. People are bubble-high but not yet willing to burn the country down.
AJ_Liberty (29b94b) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:12 pm“The ever shifting sands of Haley’s principles. Would she support a law that required segregated schools, for example, because “Whatever the people decide, you should do”?”
I think the Ohio GOP now has a pretty clear understanding of what the people want….and what they want does not require overturning Brown.
Haley is running to be President….not to be de facto governor of the 50 states…setting national policy on abortion. It’s funny that as much as Rip likes to quote polls about Trump’s inevitable rise and Haley’s inevitable demise, we never hear about abortion polls in the swing states. They must not convey his preference.
Myself. I refuse to sell Trump’s inevitability like Rip does daily. I want to encourage any and all opposition as Biden v. Trump poses one of the greatest national security risks in this country’s history. The American people will not elect a felon. It’s too tragic to think otherwise.
AJ_Liberty (29b94b) — 11/19/2023 @ 8:33 pmDesatan in his latest attempt to help amb. haley’s presidential campaign refuses to denounce is donor elon musk anti-semetic conspiracys. Must be hard up campaign money curry favor with krypto-nazi from south africa. You can take musk out of afrikanner ;but you can’t take the afrikanner out of musk.
asset (e8ec0a) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:37 pmIran backed forces seize Israeli ship. US like tough talk or action? 9 of yhe 37 premature babies at al shifa hospital have now died.
asset (e8ec0a) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:41 pmWhat happened in Tombstone is irrelevant.
And this is how the “history” game is played.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:55 pmif you are in prison for more than a year for drunk driving, you’ve been convicted way more than once
“bad luck”
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:56 pmThe American people will not elect a felon. It’s too tragic to think otherwise.
Nor will the GOP nominate one. They are not all insane and a way will be found. I expect that way will start with Trump’s underwhelming performance in the primaries.
Haley will be spending 8-figure money in the first primary states, with deep-pocket dark money working to help. DeSantis will be spending whatever he has, but he will get no more. Vivek will be out whenever Trump decides he’s not helping.
It may be Trump in the end, of course, but it’s no more inevitable that Hillary was in 2008.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 10:05 pmIran backed forces seize “Israeli” ship.
FIFY
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 10:06 pmPlease see what happened on July 4, 1976.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/19/2023 @ 10:06 pmThe Bicentennial? Chief Justice Warren Burger sent me a parchment paper copy of the Declaration of Independence and a leatherette-bound pocket copy of the Constitution,
nk (dc3819) — 11/20/2023 @ 5:22 amNo, my mistake. That was in 1989, the bicentennial of the Constitution.
nk (dc3819) — 11/20/2023 @ 5:46 amGOP clown show in Iowa, it is.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/20/2023 @ 6:50 amElitists sure spend some time scouring the internet to find something to wank about.
BuDuh (a4de66) — 11/20/2023 @ 7:10 amThere was no “scouring”, the clown show was presented to me, thanks to Elon.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/20/2023 @ 7:14 amUh-huh.
BuDuh (a4de66) — 11/20/2023 @ 7:18 amThis is probably why you don’t have an hour and forty minutes to spare…
BuDuh (a4de66) — 11/20/2023 @ 7:18 amhttps://nypost.com/2023/11/20/opinion/real-truth-aid-the-floyd-lies/
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/20/2023 @ 7:21 amNot for the kind of material that only nutjob sites like Rumble will take.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/20/2023 @ 7:53 amIf the primary were held today, Trump would win it in a walk.
It’s not being held today.
Rip believes — without much evidence – that the DC Case will not start in March. It’s the DC Case that’s really the most important of Trump’s tribulations as that is the case that addresses January 6 and stands the best chance of truly disqualifying him for office. If Trump is convicted there (and 98% of federal prosecutions end in convictions), the world changes.
That’s really why other primary candidates need to stay in the race. What’s true today is going to be very very different come May.
Poll watching doesn’t predict this future. While I don’t like the legal system solving our political problems, that is the way this is going.
Appalled (980ea4) — 11/20/2023 @ 7:59 amThe Bicentennial?
Operation Entebbe
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 8:13 amWhile I don’t like the legal system solving our political problems, that is the way this is going.
I don’t know about “solving” but it will certainly bring them out into the open. It would be even better if it were televised or streamed.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 8:15 amThe ship seized by the Houthi’s is not Israeli.
31 premature babies at Shifa were evacuated by the IDF.
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/20/2023 @ 8:25 amIn other news today, the USSC declined to hear Chauvin’s appeal.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/20/2023 @ 8:48 amRegarding Hamas using Al Shifa Hospital for tunnels and hostage-taking and weapons caches, the evidence is trickling in.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/20/2023 @ 9:29 am31 premature babies at Shifa were evacuated by the IDF.
This will now be called “baby-stealing.”
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 9:30 amEven so, such a person isn’t necessarily a dangerous or violent person, and shouldn’t lose their Second Amendment rights.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 9:51 am1. IF elected, Trump will try a self-pardon. Since when has he followed “bedrock principles”? It would be very hard, if not impossible, for anyone to challenge a self-pardon in the courts, though it probably would lead to his impeachment.
2. If it is true that Haley is not running to set national policy on abortion, why did she answer that, if elected President, she would sign into law a six-week abortion ban?
3. I am not trying to “sell” Trump’s inevitability-the polls are what they are. If a poll suddenly appeared that showed DeSantis or Haley in the lead, I would post that too, but not one state or national poll at this time shows anyone beating Trump for the nomination. Any other desire is wishcasting.
4. If a poll has question about abortion, I have included its results.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:08 amEven so, such a person isn’t necessarily a dangerous or violent person, and shouldn’t lose their Second Amendment rights.
Anyone who repeatedly gets caught driving drunk is frequently drunk — the law catches almost none of the legally drunk drivers. This makes them dangerous and irresponsible, and dangerous and irresponsible people should not have guns.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:24 amIt would be very hard, if not impossible, for anyone to challenge a self-pardon in the courts, though it probably would lead to his impeachment.
Bet you that you are wrong. Courts would bend over backwards to find “standing” for such an egregious affront to the Constitution. I’d expect a high-level DoJ civil servant or a senator to give it a try.
Impeachment isn’t a very useful check, and the Constitution needs to be defensible in court.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:30 am2. If it is true that Haley is not running to set national policy on abortion, why did she answer that, if elected President, she would sign into law a six-week abortion ban?
IF CONGRESS PASSED SUCH. What part of “ain’t gonna happen” did you not understand?
She said that she would pass any consensus bill, and if that was the consensus bill, she’d sign it. If it was 20 weeks instead, she’d sign that.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:32 amTrump’s pre-trial legal challenges (like today’s appeals court hearing on Judge Chutkan’s gag order), no matter how frivolous, will inevitably end up appealed to the Supreme Court. This why I don’t expect the March trial date to be met.
I would say the Espionage Act case in Florida is more of slam dunk the the election interference case. Even if the election interference trial begins in March, Trump could mathematically sew up the nomination by the time the trial ends (approximately six weeks later):
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:33 amThen go get a Constitutional Amendment passed. You don’t get the right to take away God given rights because in your judgment people don’t deserve them.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:34 amI expect the new Republican House and Senate to try and do so.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:34 amLOL! I’ll take that bet.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:35 amRip, you pretend to be impartial, just “reporting the polls.” But you are really promoting the idea that today’s polls are factual statements about future events. When in fact, Presidents Humphrey, Gene McCarthy, Dukakis, Perot, Gore, Kerry, Romney and Hillary Clinton would disagree.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:38 amI expect the new Republican House and Senate to try and do so.
The House in 2025 will be D+30.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:39 amThen go get a Constitutional Amendment passed. You don’t get the right to take away God given rights because in your judgment people don’t deserve them.
There is plenty of historical record that dangerous people can be denied arms. Particularly felons. There is a case that some felons, such as embezzlers, might not be dangerous, but frequent drunk drivers are clearly dangerous (would you ride in their car?) and clearly irresponsible, perhaps compulsively so.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:43 amUntrue, I am not impartial-I don’t want Trump to be president. But absent the ability to see into the future, polls are the best way to determine how the race stands now, and the length of time that current polling really hasn’t moved much for the past 6 months, despite 4 indictments, doesn’t augur well for the future. Did Humphrey, Gene McCarthy, Dukakis, Perot, Gore, Kerry, Romney and Hillary Clinton have polling leads like Trump does now?
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:46 amI’ll make a note of your prediction.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:46 amOver multi-candidate fields? I doubt any of them faced six or more major contenders in their primaries. I don’t think so.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 10:49 am@Rip@202 Then the correct question should’ve been “Do you believe that someone repeatedly convicted of drunk driving should lose their gun rights?” which is very different than what you asked.
However, I was kind of under the impression that you pretty much think that there isn’t any reason to restrict gun rights, am I misremembering that?
Nic (896fdf) — 11/20/2023 @ 11:05 am“Do you believe that someone repeatedly convicted of drunk driving should lose their gun rights?”
I would argue that they should lose their alcohol rights. And that is something that would scare the bejeezus out of any alcoholic.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 11:29 amIt’s funny that as much as Rip likes to quote polls about Trump’s inevitable rise and Haley’s inevitable demise, we never hear about abortion polls in the swing states. They must not convey his preference.
Support for Abortion Access Is Near Record, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds
………..
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 11:31 amNew results from a Wall Street Journal-NORC poll show Americans’ support for abortion access is at one of the highest levels on record since nonpartisan researchers began tracking it in the 1970s. Some 55% of respondents say it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if she wants it for any reason.
………..
Democrats and independent voters—whose support of abortion rights was roughly in line with that of Republicans up until the 1990s—now back access to the procedure by greater margins. About 77% of Democrats in the new poll say they support access to abortion for any reason, up from 52% in 2016. Among Republicans, that share is one-third.
………
………Nearly nine in 10 poll respondents support abortion access in the event of rape or incest, or when a woman’s health is seriously endangered by the pregnancy.
………
NORC polling shows that Americans’ attitudes about abortion vary depending on the reasons for terminating a pregnancy. Some 86% of respondents support abortion access in the event of rape or incest, and 89% support it when a woman’s health is seriously endangered by the pregnancy.
………
Unless you are a violent or dangerous offender. I don’t think non-violent offenders, such as those convicted of felony white collar crimes, deserve to lose their Second Amendment rights. A lot of the restrictions added in 1961, which applied the ban on possession to any crime that resulted in a one year prison sentence, catches a lot of citizens who commit misdemeanors and aren’t violent or dangerous.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 11:45 am@290
Doubtful.
Look… I’m about as anti-abortion as you can get.
But, even I understand, and willing to bet the national GOP too…that the only winning argument is to embrace Federalism principles on abortion. Which, should advocate that its something that each state must decide.
If you’re on the anti-abortion team, embrace the new front of the fight in those states.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/20/2023 @ 11:46 amban on possession to any crime that resulted in a one year prison sentence, catches a lot of citizens who commit misdemeanors and aren’t violent or dangerous.
I agree with this. I just see frequent drunk drivers as a poor example, as opposed to tax cheats.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 11:52 amI didn’t say they would succeed.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 11:54 am#207 —
If Trump is convicted of those 1-6 charges, a number of states will find a way to apply the 14th amendment and he will be put in jail. So even he has “clinched” the nomination, someone who can run in all 50 states will be selected.
Don’t assume the courts will delay consideration of Trump’s garbage appeals. They want him gone just as much as the rest of establishment Washington.
Appalled (9f7a32) — 11/20/2023 @ 12:06 pmFor example, the plaintiff in Williams v. Garland, decided by U.S. District Judge John Milton Younge’s decision in eastern Pennsylvania, determined that the consequences violated Williams’ Second Amendment rights:
Should Williams lose his Second Amendment rights because of a non-violent crime committed nearly 20 years ago?
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 12:10 pm@223
Fair enough buddy.
Its just that I want folks to really embrace federalism. Nationalizing big, big issues is part of the reasons why politics stinks these days imo.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/20/2023 @ 12:11 pmWe’ll see.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 12:11 pmThat ship sailed a long time ago.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 12:12 pmSee post 225. Two convictions over 23 years.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 12:16 pm@RIP I would say there are 2 questions.
The loss would’ve been due to 3 arrests and 2 convictions over 4 years. This would generally be a person who is actively in substance abuse and acting in dangerously irresponsible ways. Should someone loose their 2nd amendment rights in that situation?
The second question would be if there should be a way to regain those rights?
Nic (896fdf) — 11/20/2023 @ 12:44 pmThe “Trump polls” are like testing for water quality with a drop of water from a pothole. A very small proportion of an unknown proportion of uncertain composition.
How is he doing with the small donors? Now, that could be saying something.
nk (dc3819) — 11/20/2023 @ 1:21 pmCumulatively through July 2023, 81% of Trump’s fundraising came from small dollar donations (less than $200); with Vivek Ramaswamy receiving 57%; Christie 35%; (skipping Pence and Scott); Haley 29%; and DeSantis 17% (less than Will Hurd).
56% of the $23.4M raised during this reporting period came from “retirees” giving less than $50 each.
Apparently the small donor well is drying up.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 1:50 pm@224 “Don’t assume the courts will delay consideration of Trump’s garbage appeals. They want him gone just as much as the rest of establishment Washington.”
This is an interesting admission. I would worry less about garbage appeals and more about a garbage conviction. If the courts and the rest of establishment Washington want him gone, why is his fair trial being held in DC? Or, does that question answer itself?
lloyd (3ed0db) — 11/20/2023 @ 1:53 pm@233 @224
As someone who really, really, REALLY don’t want Trump again… I don’t see how anyone can, in good faith, claim that Trump is going to get a fair trial in DC.
Frankly, I think the home rule of DC is part of the problem and should be retroceded in MD/VA.
I just don’t know what to do with DC circuit court…
We’re looking at a development of a real-life Panem City (a Hunger Game reference).
whembly (5f7596) — 11/20/2023 @ 2:10 pm“Don’t assume the courts will delay consideration of Trump’s garbage appeals.
By and large there is no appeal until after conviction and sentencing. What might be delayed, with appeal bond, is reporting to prison.
nk (dc3819) — 11/20/2023 @ 2:28 pmHarvard/Harris Poll-November 2023 Excerpts:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 2:29 pmThe standing question for a Trump self-pardon is non-trivial, especially as it must come hand-in-glove with 80M voters inscrutably voting for a convicted felon. The constitutional arguments against the self pardon are pretty convincing (below). Thankfully I don’t think we get there as the issue will become front and center and its implications for our legal system are dire. Yes, Trump would still potentially face state charges but being judge in one’s own case mocks the system and creates a de facto king rather than an office with limits to its power…including the pardon power.
https://www.justsecurity.org/73539/why-a-self-pardon-is-not-constitutional/
https://www.theusconstitution.org/blog/the-case-against-a-presidential-self-pardon/
The standing question needs someone who has been harmed by Trump’s unconstitutional application of the pardon power. The harm must be concrete, not abstract. For example, fear of an autocratic Trump would not qualify. Now Congress can confer standing in order for the Court to weigh in on such a momentous decision. Again, if we get there…which will require a Trump conviction, a Trump election, and a self pardon…you might yet find 10 Republicans who will save the day. One can hope….that we don’t get there.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/20/2023 @ 2:38 pmAppeals court rules civil rights groups can longer bring cases under section 2 of the voting rights act only the government. This is why the court of last resort especially for african-americans is not the supreme court ;but the street. Republicans take away their right to vote blacks can make republicans pay a high price for their racism.
asset (bfa152) — 11/20/2023 @ 2:44 pm@198 news report Israeli owned. 9 prematures babies have died since hospital was surronded by Isreal.
asset (bfa152) — 11/20/2023 @ 2:50 pmhttps://www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/politics/presidential-debate-dates/index.html
If the contest is Biden vs Trump, these debates will not happen. Biden won’t debate because of his health, but he’ll refuse on the basis of “not debating a felon.” Trump will refuse because of the format (the RNC has already said it won’t participate due to that) and because “Biden is on drugs” to debate.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:08 pmnews report Israeli owned
The holding company has an Israeli as a major shareholder, but the ship is not Israeli-flagged.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:09 pm@239: Those damn Nazi judges, insisting on following the law and not their feelz!
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:10 pmAnd when he IS convicted?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:11 pmShould Williams lose his Second Amendment rights because of a non-violent crime committed nearly 20 years ago?
Drunk diving at 0.223 BAC is a violent crime, akin to shooting a rifle at random in a neighborhood.
Just because he’s only been convicted twice does not mean that he doesn’t do that a lot. It’s like a prostitution arrest — it’s just a sampling of a pattern of behavior.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:17 pmFrankly, I think the home rule of DC is part of the problem and should be retroceded in MD/VA.
Fine. Baltimore.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:17 pmRip: “3. I am not trying to “sell” Trump’s inevitability-the polls are what they are. If a poll suddenly appeared that showed DeSantis or Haley in the lead, I would post that too, but not one state or national poll at this time shows anyone beating Trump for the nomination. Any other desire is wishcasting.”
My view is that Trump, Trumpism, and the move toward GOP illiberalism needs to be opposed as pervasively as possible. I’m not sure how that works if everyone drowns in cynicism. Checking out doesn’t empower a resistance, it deflates it. People pay more attention as elections draw nearer. Few GOPers have internalized what it means to support Trump, especially if Trump faces criminal conviction. Saying it doesn’t matter doesn’t make it not matter….to our system, to our allies, and to others that serve. Normal Republicans should consolidate the field and make the case against Trump. Haley is not perfect but she’s light years better than Trump. I’m not sure how we get better-than-Trump if much of the effort is arguing how better-than-Trump is flawed.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:20 pmCongress should pass a law that restricts abortion to 6 weeks or less nationwide 35%
The 6-week bans are effing lies — there is no way to get an abortion under them unless you have a sh1twad of money and can get all the required tests and consultations done in time AND can find an operating clinic (hint: many have closed).
Anyone here of elsewhere who says that these are not “bans” is a flipping liar.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:21 pmI’m not sure how that works if everyone drowns in cynicism.
Rip is the weatherman from Vichy.
It’s not his fault where the wind is blowing from, although he will insist you have no evidence it can blow from somewhere else.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:23 pmHaley is not perfect but she’s light years better than Trump.
She is the only candidate available who can steer the ship away from the rocks. Even DeSantis just wants to hit the reef less forcefully.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:24 pmIf the courts and the rest of establishment Washington want him gone, why is his fair trial being held in DC? Or, does that question answer itself?
How about: If he is fu*king guilty, will he be convicted? Or does that question answer itself?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:25 pm@240 dem./rep. took debates away from league of women voters because they were not doing enough to keep third party candidates out of the debates.
asset (bfa152) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:52 pmThe military leadership doesn’t like trump. The corporate establishment and deep government state doesn’t like trump. Corporate media doesn’t either. I guess their biding their time.
asset (bfa152) — 11/20/2023 @ 3:55 pmFrom the Harvard/Harris poll:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 4:16 pmWhich you’ve never provided.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 4:20 pmGreat links. I still don’t think the Constitution, or any other legal or moral principle, would stop Trump from pardoning himself. It would be the ultimate broken norm, and his supporters would cheer. While he cannot pardon himself (or anyone else) for state crimes, I am certain the Justice Department would intervene in the Georgia case to stop their prosecution of Trump, under the well-established doctrine that a President cannot be indicted.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 4:32 pmhttps://twitter.com/MattWalshBlog/status/1725188958387073064
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/20/2023 @ 4:57 pmThere is nothing wrong with decriminalizing drugs. Just not here. Out in Oregon? Fine. Let them be a magnet.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 5:05 pm@254: Meaningless. Hypothetical designed to get an FU response.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 5:15 pmClassy.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/20/2023 @ 5:15 pmSomething that’s pretty apparent on this blog’s comment section, and a few other places:
Trump and democrats (BIRM) have a pretty crude campaign strategy against the viable and normal candidates. Say it’s totally hopeless, over and over and over, citing the same polls that were hysterically wrong for the past 20 years, and seem to be manipulated somehow.
I’d say if that’s your argument, cool. If it’s literally all you’ve got, day after day, it’s probably not a sign of a strong position.
Polls are wrong. Trump seems particularly invested in getting the best poll numbers, and if there’s a way to cheat at that (and there likely is) who is going to call him out? Not the left… the last thing they want is for the GOP to have a return to any sort of normalcy.
Don’t be surprised next year when you keep reading ‘in a surprise outcome’. It won’t be that surprising when Desantis wins Iowa or Florida, and Trump’s 9 bazillion point poll lead is just not there. One thing Trump’s never actually done before is win the most votes in an election.
Dustin (9f4e3b) — 11/20/2023 @ 6:31 pm@255 I imagine that wouldn’t work as he was indicted prior to his assuming office. They’d perbaps state he cannot serve his sentence while holding office, and then defer his sentence until Jan 20, 2028.
SamG (4e6c22) — 11/20/2023 @ 6:40 pmI doubt the resident poll poster will confirm or deny this. The usual argument is “hey, I’m just presenting information. No dog in the fight. LOL.”
Then he and Kevin start scratching each other’s eyeballs out.
BuDuh (1a6d90) — 11/20/2023 @ 6:45 pmAdam shifty schiff booed off stage at california democratic convention by ceasefire supporters. GOOD! even if its for the wrong reason. Barbara Lee hopefully will take votes away from slimeball liar schiff. Bad news for never trumpers tonight on msDNC witness who testified against trump trying thwart the constitution sez she is a republican and plans to vote again for trump! Like most here I only vote for my parties nominee If they are worth voting for ;but we are a minority.
asset (bfa152) — 11/20/2023 @ 8:55 pm@261 It not somehow, there are reasons. You can read on internet about polling problems like skewing the sample oneway or another and many other problems in telephone samplings that have gotten worse with cell phone use. Then their is the partisan polling chicanery. The figures don’t lie ;but liars figure. Republican vote polling is usually off by a couple of points or worse.
asset (bfa152) — 11/20/2023 @ 9:07 pmA thread by Jonah, worth a full read.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/20/2023 @ 11:24 pmClassy.
Do I really have to spell things out for you? The POLL was designed to get GOP voters to give them an FU response.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 11:28 pmPolls are wrong. Trump seems particularly invested in getting the best poll numbers
You know where Trump’s poll numbers are highest? In states (and nationally) where the primaries are far away and no one is paying attention. Where are they lowest? In states with early primaries, where people are starting to pay attention.
Nationally he might be at 75%. In NH he’s at 45%, and Haley + Christie is at 30%, up from 12% in the last two months. In Iowa, Trump is at 47%.
Any consolidation in the competition and Trump’s big lead gets much smaller. If he starts losing, or narrowly winning, his “inevitability” disappears. Just like it did to Hillary in 2008.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 11:39 pmDon’t be surprised next year when you keep reading ‘in a surprise outcome’.
“Unexpectedly”
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/20/2023 @ 11:41 pmParaphrasing Churchill on democracy, polls are the worst way to predict electoral outcomes, except for all the others.
lurker (cd7cd4) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:37 am@270 when trump wins in Iowa and new hampshire they will have more excuses like wait till they vote in … This assumes nothing happens to trump as his vermin talk may get people desperate.
asset (bfa152) — 11/21/2023 @ 2:07 amDustin, You seem to be making the mistake of assuming that the polls are intended to predict the outcome. They’re not. They’re intended to measure sentiment today. Sentiment today may or may not predict the outcome. In many cases they just tell you name recognition.
FWIW I don’t think RIP has any agenda beyond discussing the news of the day using the information available to him. But YMMV.
Always glad to read a comment from you btw
Time123 (8a41fa) — 11/21/2023 @ 2:51 amMore from Jonah:
Not an insurrection?
BuDuh (1a6d90) — 11/21/2023 @ 3:32 am@273, I agree with Jonah, I’m not sure how any conservative could minimize it….or coronate its architect.
AJ_Liberty (b65ba0) — 11/21/2023 @ 6:20 amhttps://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/jan-6th-tapes-prove-biden-prosecutors-knowingly-falsified-the-charges-that-caused-matthew-perna-to-kill-himself/
Abuse of government to terrorize the public.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 6:28 amThank you for your comment.
It’s certainly an undeniable fact that right now a majority (or at least a plurality) of Republican voters support Donald Trump for President. Despite everything, the polls have been amazingly consistent on that point. And considering how successful he has been in delaying his criminal trials (Georgia is scheduled for August 2024; the Espionage Act trial may delayed beyond May 2024; and the election interference trial may be delayed beyond March 2024 due to multiple pre-trial appeals), Trump could secure the nomination before any judgments are rendered.
Rip Murdock (eceec3) — 11/21/2023 @ 7:27 amFakeNews.
There’s no such thing as a “felony for committing terrorism”, but Perna did plead guilty to four counts, and he made it easy for law enforcement because posted his experience on Facebook. The US Code only defines terrorism, but there’s no crime attached.
If Perna didn’t have a lawyer, he should’ve gotten one, and if he had a lawyer, the lawyer was for sh-t, because he refused a plea deal.
The tapes that Speaker Johnson released aren’t exculpatory. They don’t erase the 418 insurrectionists who committed assault on police officers, and they don’t erase the illegal trespassing of the Capitol by 1,200± rioters.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 7:30 amBTW, Perna’s partner in crime, a Mr. Ayres, cut a plea deal, two years probation and no jail time, so I’d say Perna’s two attorneys committed malpractice.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 7:41 am@273
Oh…
So NOW he wants to make it about the riot?
What happened to all the insurrection-y rhetoric that J6 was such a serious ordeal that we almost lost our country???
Yah, Jonah can FOAD.
Most of the anti-Trump crowd got suckered into that narrative and were/are unwilling to separate the riot from Trump’s actions and from peaceful protestors.
No. He gets zero quarters from me until he publicly admits that he was wrong about J6.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/21/2023 @ 7:55 am“No real trespass” – huh? Since when does trespass mean anything other than “being in a place without permission”?
Perna was “awaiting sentencing on charges of witness tampering, entering and remaining in a restricted building or grounds and two counts of disorderly conduct”. You can view the indictment at https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/case-multi-defendant/file/1377916/download.
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:06 amAt the expense of repeating, and regardless of whether Jonah likes to use the term or not…
“a violent uprising against an authority or government”
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:09 am–Oxford Dictionary
A strange victory lap that concedes the heavy hand of the DOJ.
BuDuh (1a6d90) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:14 amIt’s how plea deals work.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:20 amNJRob (eb56c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 6:28 am
Rob, I came to that conclusion on Jan 6th while watching it unfold live.. I was and am still astonished at how the narration by the chroniclers did not match what my eyes clearly saw. Let me add to your last comment:
[I begin to go over the top]
The entire country is suffering the unintended (?) consequences of Democrat and Republican policies and practices. Witness the chaos troubling the DNC by their own protesters who were a creation of their DOE-DOJ-DEI policies. Look at how the media portrays the entire scenario – what is said and what is omitted from reports.
But hey, what we see is not evidence, and if it is, it proves nothing, and if it does prove something, it doesn’t matter because….shut up and listen stupid, because we are on the right side of history!
[coming to the crest]
Were we better off during the Trump Admin? Yes. We had peace, a more secure border, safer cities with less looting. Who cares if the peace was because of Trump or in spite of Trump?
The world was afraid of Trump because he had a nuclear button within reach and was a credible threat to them. That is a good thing. Did you think the Abraham accords were a fluke? Our own government was, and is still afraid of Trump because he is a credible threat to them. That’s a good thing, too, because when the people fear the government, that’s tyranny; when the government fear the people, that’s Democracy.
[officially over the top]
Oh, but felipe, Trump is not the people! Uh-huh, but he is a credible threat – the media and their believers say so. The people who support him are portrayed by the media and their believers as a credible threat. There is a connection there – you just need to admit “it” to yourself. Here come two analogies:
One
What is “it?” That you are a believer and I am not. I guess that makes me an atheist, to you, even though we believe and “know” the same thing: Trump is dangerous! Trump has been indicted! Trump is in trouble!
Two
You are an Egyptian or perhaps a collaborator and I am not [stick with me here]
Pharaoh [Government] would not relinquish [power over] God’s people, so Moses warned that a destroyer was to come. No! Trump is not G*d. Freedom is G*d, Trump is not Moses. The “enslaved” voters are Moses Trump is the destroyer. Certainly we can agree on that. Pharaoh and his people would rightly fear the destroyer just as the slaves feared the destroyer – well, not all the slaves, just those who had collaborated with Pharaoh.
Huh. There is no one up here with me, but I do see a lot of flags. I better head down before my oxygen runs out. You can visit the top, but you can’t live here.
felipe (79693d) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:22 amJ6 was a pre-staged riot to delay the counting of the electoral votes so the fake electoral scheme could be hatched. There’s plenty of felonies in there, including obstruction of a congressional proceeding and conspiracy. If Jack Smith felt he had enough to charge Trump with insurrection, I believe he would do it. As I’ve said before, if there was a clear connection between Trump and the Proud Boys planning, then it ratchets up. If the rioters had taken hostages and started making demands, it poses a more imminent problem. If there were homicides to more expeditiously enter the Capitol, then however ill-inspired the actions were, it becomes a greater threat to the stability of our government. The violence aimed at the Capitol police should not be minimized, nor the inaction by Trump. Anyone dealing with reality should have immediately called for the impeachment of Trump, without delay. The fact that anyone focuses on what word is used demonstrates that the GOP remains broken.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:29 amIn other words, it doesn’t matter if a commander-in-chief is a mentally unhinged malignant narcissist, the important thing is that he scares people!
Pass.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:32 am@285 AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:29 am
FTR, I’ve been consistent that Trump should’ve been impeached/removed on J7 simply by is slow reaction on J6.
I’ve been consistent that those who participated in violent riots, should be held accountable.
But AJ…sorry, I can’t hear over the insurrection drumbeat. It’s the Democrats, media (BIRM) and #NeverTrumpers the ones that keeps focusing on the word “insurrection”.
And, it’s because of the political ploy to over-dramatized J6, as well as to make the case that Trump’s ineligibility to run via the 14th Amendment.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:39 am@286
Vote for Haley or DeSantis!
Encourage folks in your circle to do so!
Do your part! 😉
whembly (5f7596) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:41 amPaul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:32 am
You can lead a horse…
felipe (79693d) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:42 amYou can lead a witness…
But you can’t lead a believer.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:41 am
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Listen to Whembly, please. I am voting for the Republican nominee. Don’t let it be Trump. Please.
felipe (79693d) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:44 amPaul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:32 am
Paul, I will give you a better response than your comment deserves. It absolutely matters that the leader of the free world is feared by its enemies and by political opponents. It doesn’t matter at all if the world dismisses the leader of the free world as “a mentally unhinged malignant narcissist.” If the leader is not unhinged, then it would serve in our interest because it would be a disservice to the enemies own interests for thinking it. If our leader is unhinged it would be a fatal mistake for our enemies to not tread carefully.
If you think about your statement, you might see that it would be a foolish thing to say in any leaders cabinet as it would mark the speaker as one possessed of an immature mind.
felipe (79693d) — 11/21/2023 @ 9:01 amAnyone dealing with reality should have immediately called for the impeachment of Trump, without delay. The fact that anyone focuses on what word is used demonstrates that the GOP remains broken.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 8:29 am
I completely agree with you, AJ. How tragic that the option of impeachment was already rendered impotent for having been used twice already – to no avail.
felipe (79693d) — 11/21/2023 @ 9:08 amThat still is 15% behind Trump. Trump won NH by 20 points in 2016.
Not if their second choice is Trump, which would be the natural home of DeSantis and Ramaswamy voters. Twenty percent of non-Trump supporters in NH would vote for him if their primary choice wasn’t available.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/21/2023 @ 9:24 amI enjoyed reading your comment BuDuh. It demonstrated the beauty of your thought and was not lost on me. Thank you for the pleasure.
felipe (79693d) — 11/21/2023 @ 9:27 amI wish you all a safe and blessed Thanksgiving. May this be an occasion of reconciliation between foes, friends, and family.
felipe (79693d) — 11/21/2023 @ 9:31 amThat’s my plan, whembly.
felipe, I was being a little flippant, but if you’re going to bring up Moses, then I’d say Trump is the golden calf, not Moses or the tablets. My party is being led astray by a fraudster and false prophet.
A President Haley or President DeSantis can be just as effective abroad, if not more so, with the bonus of not having to deal with Trump’s batsh-t and mental decay and retribution and threats to our Constitutional system.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 9:34 am@295
Happy Thanksgiving to you too felipe and may you and your family enjoy many blessings.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/21/2023 @ 9:36 amAs usual, felipe, your veiled insults are always a treat.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 9:39 amDustin, You seem to be making the mistake of assuming that the polls are intended to predict the outcome. They’re not. They’re intended to measure sentiment today
Except for the ones that are intended to herd voters towards the “leader”, or to assert inevitability and suggest acquiescence.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/21/2023 @ 9:57 amTwenty percent of non-Trump supporters in NH would vote for him if their primary choice wasn’t available.
What percentage of Trump responders (not voters, as they aren’t voting) would choose someone else if they thought Trump wasn’t inevitable? There’s more than a little bit of bandwagon effect.
Frankly, Rip, that’s what we’re saying about your posts — you seem to be a bandwagon kind of guy, and it’s tiring.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/21/2023 @ 10:03 amAnyone dealing with reality should have immediately called for the impeachment of Trump, without delay.
Sadly, the calls came from Pelosi, politicizing it. Had the first calls come from, say, McConnell it would have happened forthwith and turfed the bastard.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/21/2023 @ 10:05 amBut AJ…sorry, I can’t hear over the insurrection drumbeat. It’s the Democrats, media (BIRM) and #NeverTrumpers the ones that keeps focusing on the word “insurrection”.
And it’s the Trumpists, fascists (BIRM) and fellow travelers who keep objecting to the plain English term.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/21/2023 @ 10:07 amI would happily vote for Haley, as she is the ONLY potential nominee who has a connection with the traditional GOP. DeSantis is running as Trump-lite — own the Libs a little less — but he, too is preferable. Just not in a really good way.
Haley has the potential to be a great president. DeSantis has potential to be an OK president. Trump has potential to be the last president.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/21/2023 @ 10:12 amFIFY
BuDuh (1a6d90) — 11/21/2023 @ 10:19 amLOL! I’ve never made a secret of my DISDAIN (too put it mildly) of Trump. What I am saying is that Trump may not be inevitable, he is certainly in a better position than any other candidate.
I just look at the polling and the calendar, and there isn’t much time left for the other candidates to turn things around. Tick tock:
Days until Iowa caucuses: 55
Days until NH primary: 63
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/21/2023 @ 10:46 amI just refuse to pursue “what if….” fantasies.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/21/2023 @ 10:47 am“The world was afraid of Trump because he had a nuclear button within reach and was a credible threat to them.”
Felipe, I wish this was the reason. The Palestinian attack on Israel likely had little to do with Trump. There’s war in Gaza because its Gaza. Nothing Trump did meaningfully changed any dynamic there. The people hate each other and haven’t lost enough collectively to end the cycle.
As to Ukraine, I’m far more cynical. Rather than Putin fearing Trump, I believe that Putin believed that Trump was willing to knee-cap NATO. Again, this is from Bolton, Mattis, Esper, and Stavridis. Trump losing in 2020 caused Putin to pivot to aggression. Trump’s initial reaction to the wanton slaughter in Ukraine was to praise Russia and to call Putin a genius. That doesn’t sound like someone who was checking Russian adventurism, especially with Zelensky’s perfect phone call giving him so much trouble. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923
And Trump still wants out of NATO: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-u-s-leave-nato-1234860016/
Trump has also mulled over pulling us out of S. Korea as detailed by Mark Esper (Sec of Defense)
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2022-05-10/defense-secretary-mark-esper-memoir-president-trump-south-korea-troops-5954121.html
Trump was also actively pulling us out of Africa, Somalia specifically (out of links). Biden reversed the orders. Now, is this based on strong strategic reasoning with broad consensus with our diplomatic and defense experts together with our allies….or is it the rash plotting of someone shooting from the hip…or with some other motivations?
The national security arena is the one that most concerns me with Trump….and the historical chaos that he may try to cause…for whatever pathological reason. He may want to paint that other leaders are afraid of him, but there are other possibilities. The world and the US benefit from our active involvement. Nature abhors a vacuum. I think giving up on Ukraine might also send the absolute wrong signal to China on Taiwan. It’s unclear how Trump would even view China moving on Taiwan. We and the world will suffer from a destabilized Taiwan. The reality is that Trump has no special knowledge, experience, or insight into these international affairs. I don’t want nutjobs like Bannon navigating specious foreign policy maneuvers because of some imagined isolationism crap. I can’t emphasize more: Trump is a national security NIGHTMARE we can’t afford.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 11:05 am“But AJ…sorry, I can’t hear over the insurrection drumbeat. It’s the Democrats, media (BIRM) and #NeverTrumpers the ones that keeps focusing on the word “insurrection”.”
whembly, why do you care what anyone calls it…and why must Jonah FOAD because of his description? Isn’t Jonah’s take correct that whatever you call it…it was terrible and that Trump should pay a price for it. The price thus far seems to be that he wins the GOP nomination….and the GOP plans to support him in spite of potentially being found guilty of obstructing a congressional proceeding. The insurrection drumbeat should not supersede the actual real felony drumbeat.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 11:51 amLooks like I may have a comment stuck in moderation. I tried to re-submit it, but the system says I already submitted it. So I guess it is in moderation. Will some one release it?
felipe (79693d) — 11/21/2023 @ 11:52 amHeh! Fair enough!
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 9:39 am
No, no, no! I attack your argument, not you. The rules here are clear. How else are we to differ if not in arguments?
felipe (79693d) — 11/21/2023 @ 11:59 amRip: “I just look at the polling and the calendar, and there isn’t much time left for the other candidates to turn things around.”
We remain in the nerd-part of the primary season. Most voters are pretty ignorant. Things are focused in New Hampshire and Iowa, but even NH notoriously has a lot of late deciders. It’s certainly clear that Trump is leading, whatever that means.
I don’t think that there is some magic strategy that is clear for either DeSantis or Haley to apply. Full negative has not exactly propelled Christie or Hurd into contention. Hutchinson was quickly an after thought despite having possibly the most accomplished record. Going to Trump’s right, emphasizing culture war issues, and more competence have not helped DeSantis. Pence never found a lane for Trumpers or Trump skeptical voters. The GOP field needed to be winnowed….and it appears that it should be down to DeSantis and Haley challenging Trump possibly before but certainly after NH. This should be different from 2016.
I suspect at that point, the campaign gets supercharged. Big money NeverTrump will have its best opportunity. Votes will be cast soon and the case-against-Trump will be made. I further suspect the hard-hitting negative ads from super PACs will flow. Trump will be compelled to debate…or look weak. I think he will look tiresome next to Haley. His only card will be that she flip flops. And he sits and watches an insurrection (sorry whembly)…and gets found guilty of sexually assaulting people. She will win the contrast. He will spew worrisome things about international affairs. Kooks will back his play. Independents and moderates will shift their allegiance. There’s a lot of dynamics that can still play.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:13 pmfelipe: “So I guess it is in moderation. Will some one release it?”
Are you cussing again, felipe?
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:15 pm@308
Because words means things, not what you or #NeverTrump wants it to be.
Stretching Trump’s bad act on J6 as equivalent as conducting an “insurrection” is simply bad faith. Stop trying to make Fetch Happen®.
Because he bought into the near death this nation experienced on J6 and eagerly regurgitated the one-sided narrative.
He’s correct…now.
But, he’s whitewashing his prior commentary. <—-this is the crux of my complaint
I’ll be frank with you. I don’t give a crap.
I primarily blame the overzealous, over-charging, heavy-handed #NeverTrumpers for Trump’s rise and stay in popularity with his base. These people cannot confine themselves in the very real things he does, and instead, in unrestrained and uncompromised efforts to paint Trump is the next Fascist/Hitler/NeoSatan and stretch the laws into near-incomprehension…they’re effectively turning Trump into a Martyr.
Sorry… still can’t hear over the insurrection drumbeat.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:30 pm@311
Dude, I’ve stated numerous times on this board since then that Trump should’ve been impeached/removed due to his inaction on J6.
But, to keep labeling it as an “insurrection” to make it bigger than it seems because it fits your worldview only weakens your positions imo (sorry).
whembly (5f7596) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:34 pmHeh! My comment was in agreement with yours, yet again (with just a touch of disagreement over a fine point), but I guess this site can only handle so much concord amongst its commenters. The ghost in the machine works against amity.
felipe (79693d) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:37 pmWe’ll see. I don’t have your faith.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:40 pmasset (bfa152) — 11/20/2023 @ 9:07 pm
The real problem is the number of spam sales calls. Many people don’t answer the phone.
Survey response when dialed randomly approaches 5%
And then there’s people giving answers to make a point where if this was a real election, they wouldn’t.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:46 pm280. asset (e8ec0a) — 11/19/2023 @ 9:41 pm
I heard 3, or 5,
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/world/middleeast/premature-babies-gaza-hospital-egypt.html
That’s not necessarily all due to due to lack of electricity and fuel, which a lot of people were responsible for.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:53 pmwhembly: “Stretching Trump’s bad act on J6 as equivalent as conducting an “insurrection” is simply bad faith. Stop trying to make Fetch Happen®.”
@285 (and other places) I already argued it wasn’t a provable insurrection. Of course he was trying to illegally substitute electoral votes to remain in power…and used the cover of violence to press the effort. I would be more worried with those carrying Trump’s water than I would be over what to call that….YMMV
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:57 pm245. DC now consists only of the Maryland portion. The Virginia part was entirely retroceded in 1846 (or 1847 -perhaps the effective date)
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:58 pm“And Trump didn’t incite it. It was planned, and not with his knowledge”
Sammy, you’re too funny. Do the Lotto numbers next…..
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:59 pmAJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/21/2023 @ 12:57 pm
Using Parliamentary tactics. Stopping the certification would not help him one bit.
Once it happened, he tried to make lemonade out of lemons in arguing with Kevin McCarthy, but his main concern was that the proceedings in Congress should go as planned. He was very worried that Senators might cancel their plans to object – and indeed four of the 6 objections were not made.
Trump also was willing to call on the people there not to attack the police, but he was not so ready to call on them to disperse. He didn’t want to lose them.
Now his whole game plan was idiotic and doomed. He may have relied on promises that state legislators would do some things if he could only buy some more time..
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:06 pmNo, it was planned, and not with his knowledge and the Jan 6 committee proved it.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:07 pmOne time a family played Lotto with the same numbers each week, but one week they didn’t, and the numbers won.
The continued playing and eight weeks later the same six numbers won again.
But the prize was smaller.
Believe it or not.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:10 pmNH allows independents to participate in their primary, so Trump’s polling among Republicans may actually be higher.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:10 pmMore voter fraud found! Republican kim taylor found guilty of 52 counts of vote fraud in s.d.
asset (c200ae) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:16 pmDesatan underwater in floriduh 50% to 47%
asset (c200ae) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:21 pmThere are those who push Trump as the answer. There are those that push the polls as the future. Its the latter, who claim not to want Trump but carry his water, that disturb me.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:27 pmI’d say Trump is the golden calf, not Moses or the tablets. My party is being led astray by a fraudster and false prophet.
I’d say “heretic.”
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:31 pmNH allows independents to participate in their primary, so Trump’s polling among Republicans may actually be higher.
So, if Trump were to lose in NH after Christie drops out and endorses Haley, it would be because of independents? Or, is everyone who votes in a Republican primary ipso facto a Republican?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:35 pmNone of which applies to me. I have never said “Trump is the answer”; that polls reflect the future; I have posted multiple items that place Trump in a negative light; and I certainly don’t “carry his water”. I have never argued in support of his political positions. The fact that he continues to lead in the polls after four indictments is news.
I’m sure if I posted polls showing Nikki Haley leading the pack (I hope to do soon!) you wouldn’t object as much. You are projecting.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:39 pmWell said felipe. You’ve been missed
NJRob (dd83f2) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:46 pmIncluding independents, who can vote in the NH primary, in a Republican primary poll skews the result by masking what Trump’s Republican support is in NH. My guess is that Trump’s true support is 55%, which is based on the recent CNN poll of only Republican primary voters, and his numbers are dragged down to 45% when independents are included.
My personal preference is for closed primaries, so only Republicans make the decisions as to who their candidates are (Iowa is a closed caucus, only registered Republicans can participate).
I’m sure Christie has some Republican support, though he is the most despised candidate running (47% say they would never back him, 15 points ahead of the 32% who feel that way about Trump). I don’t think Christie will drop out before the NH primary, but if he does, maybe Trump does lose (“losing” being a relative term, he still would receive a proportional share of delegates).
As far as Trump losing because of independents it’s possible; but it depends on what the exit polls show. In NH, it is obvious that not every one who votes in the primary is a Republican, again because they allow independents to vote.
Hey, if Trump loses in Iowa and/or NH, that would be great. I just don’t see it happening (witness how raucous the Trump audience was in the CNN town hall). NH is Trump Country.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/21/2023 @ 2:03 pmThere has to be a major perception change among GOP voters (or at least the ones being polled) if Trump is NOT going to be the GOP nominee. Going full Nazi doesn’t seem to do it. Getting indicted didn’t do it. My guess is getting actually convicted of a felony might move the numbers. Some. Enough? We’ll see. Look to the 14th Amendment action to become more intense should the Jack Smith case yield a conviction.
Also, watch the case in Georgia. Fani Willis is looking to revoke bail on one of the minor players in that case for threatening social media posts. That’s a dry run for Trump. If she can get this guy jailed…
Appalled (03f53c) — 11/21/2023 @ 2:15 pmOTD ten years ago, the Maidan protests started, eventually becoming their Revolution of Dignity and break from moving in Putin’s direction. Ukraine’s fight for independence really began on that day.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 2:16 pmMichael Weiss’s Estonian intelligence source has another concise and cogent summary of how Ukraine’s Struggle Against Russian Hegemony is going.
It’s nice to see the Russian blow-up of Nova Kakhovka blow back on the invaders, now that Ukrainians are using the previously flooded area to gain a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro.
But I get a little nervous about these “clear indications” of military aid to Ukraine when Speaker Johnson is making a pilgrimage to Mount Vermin to kiss Trump’s ring and ass. There are similarities to McCarthy’s trek to Trump’s beach club weeks after the insurrection.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 2:31 pmA conviction in the election interference case is still not a conviction for insurrection. Trump hasn’t been charged under 18 USC 2383.
Harrison Floyd was not jailed in Georgia for violating the terms of his bond.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/21/2023 @ 3:19 pm@331 new hampshire has a history of independents effecting the out come. Some states allow democrats to vote in republican primary and vice versa.
asset (2a7a68) — 11/21/2023 @ 3:39 pmMany states have no party registration. A voter can pick aparty in every primary election (maybe has to stick with a party in the runoff.)
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 4:13 pmThere is a way to cross the border from Russian occupied Ukraine to most of Ukraine:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-border-crossing.html
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 4:20 pmMore:
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 4:21 pm336. Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 2:16 pm
Victoria Nuland strongly encouraged it, and Vladimir Putin thought Hilary Clinton was behind that (mistakenly assuming she had principles, and that Victoria Nuland was one of her women. But the people close to Hillary left the State Department soon after her)
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 4:24 pmHamas’ budget before the war:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/gaza-plagued-poverty-hamas-no-shortage-cash-come-rcna121099
There were five main sources of money:
1. The Palestinian Authority, from taxes transmitted by Israel.
2. Qatar, originally sent in suitcases.
3 &4 Taxes on imports and exports. This is contrary to international agreements as Hamas was not supposed to be collecting border crossing charges – the Palestinian Authority was
5. Iran. This goes for weapons (both money and in kind) and some military salaries.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 4:33 pmTentative partial hostage release agreement reached. I think these negotiations were deliberately manipulated so that an agreement could be reached quickly whenever Hamas wanted it. Israeli Knesset is voting on it.
Terms seem to be:
12 or 13 hostages released per day over 4 days for a total of 50.
2. All women and children
3. In exchange for:
A. Women prisoners in Israel convicted of terrorism – not including any murders.
AND
B. Six hour truces per day.
4. Only Israelis count in the total, although Hamas may free others Other countries are negotiating.
5. Hostages freed to be delivered to Israeli soldiers n Gaza through the Red Crescent.
6. If Hamas wants further truces can be had i exchange for more hostages. Israel hopes the number will reach at least 80
7.. No advantage taken of the truce to move south to north.
8. No surveillance drones during the truces.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/21/2023 @ 4:44 pmAs far as Trump losing because of independents it’s possible; but it depends on what the exit polls show. In NH, it is obvious that not every one who votes in the primary is a Republican, again because they allow independents to vote.
Trump losing is what needs to happen before Trump loses. That’s actually not a tautology. The Cult of the Inevitable Trump needs to be smashed.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/21/2023 @ 4:45 pmTrump is a walking talking constitutional crisis.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/21/2023 @ 4:49 pmIf you want to strengthen political parties, don’t have outsiders vote in partisan primary elections.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/21/2023 @ 5:07 pmMs. Nuland has been used as a Putin propaganda tool since 2014, usually accompanied with the bogus charge of a “US-backed coup”, all because of an FSB-bugged phone call.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 5:36 pmCathy Young has been following this for longer than I have, and the protests were an organic thing. The Ukrainians really want to be part of Europe.
Don’t mess with Illinois’s “cockblock” no party registration required yet separate party primaries
urbanleftbehind (2bebc6) — 11/21/2023 @ 6:56 pmFor a little change in pace – Big Egg got slapped today: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/class-action/kellogg-kraft-win-in-price-fixing-suit-against-egg-companies
SamG (4e6c22) — 11/21/2023 @ 7:27 pmNot good enough, that only 21% of the hostages held by Hamas will be released.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 10:20 pmThis deal only benefits Hamas, because they get a pause from Israel’s onslaught, thus continuing and extending their hold onto power, and they time to retrench and to burrow in.
@Paul@353 It’s good PR for Israel and so far they’ve been losing the PR battle, so they can use it.
Nic (896fdf) — 11/21/2023 @ 10:27 pmCall me cynical, but Israel will never get good PR, because they’re Jews and they’re massively outnumbered on the world stage, so IDF might as well pursue a relentless strategy of eliminating Hamas from the face of the earth, IMHO.
I suspect that Hamas knew they could slap down a Big Fat Victim Card after mass-murdering 1,200± Jews and kidnapping hundreds of the other Jews, and their ploy worked. They get a pause from being attacked, they still keep 79% of the hostages they took, and now they have the time stick those hostages in better hidey-holes and re-arm and redeploy.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 10:49 pm@348 outsiders tend to vote for the more moderate candidate. The rest vote for who is easier for their party to defeat.
asset (e998c2) — 11/21/2023 @ 11:23 pm@355 why would anyone want to give Israel good press as long as their trump is running Israel into the ground.
asset (e998c2) — 11/21/2023 @ 11:26 pm@Paul@355 There’s some idiot on one of my social media feeds repeatedly posting about how he’s blocking everyone who doesn’t understand that Israel is a colonial settler state imposing western values on an indigenous people and I want to say, “My guy, where do you think the Jewish ethno-religious group originated?” But I can’t because he’s turned off comments on all his posts.
@asset@357 There are a lot of people in the world who aren’t Trump supporters.
Nic (896fdf) — 11/21/2023 @ 11:38 pmasset, sensible people can distinguish between the Israel-Hamas War and the Netanyahu political situation. His time will come when the wartime dust settles, but I think he only gave his detractors more ammunition with this bad deal.
Nic, I used to not block anyone on social media, but I’ve found it useful to block racial-ethnic bigots and mental cases. Your “colonial settler state” person sounds like the former, not worth going further. I think Patterico went through this phase.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 11:53 pm@358/359 Two very large media groups Those who use netanyahu as an excuse to pan Israel. Second group Those who loathe netanyahu/likud. and therefore will not give Israel a break. I have to hold my nose on netanyahu (and it arent easy) to support the people of Israel half of which (the better half) agree with me. Netanyahu derangement syndrome is similar to trump derangement syndrome and people don’t like holding their nose! Netanyahu is fighting for his political career and not whats best for Israel.
asset (e998c2) — 11/22/2023 @ 12:09 amIt’s a horrible deal for Israel and 100% sellout by Biden whose balls are even more atrophied than his brain. He wants to keep his woke wackos and black antisemites — black anisemites being practically a redundancy — and get reelected.
And don’t call me cynical. I think I’m being charitable, actually.
nk (c7d8db) — 11/22/2023 @ 4:17 amI left out Saudi oil production and oil prices. Rem-rem-rem-rem-em-mem-ember?
nk (c7d8db) — 11/22/2023 @ 4:48 amPaul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/21/2023 @ 10:49 pm
You got it 100% correct, Paul.
felipe (5e2a04) — 11/22/2023 @ 6:11 amAs did nk.
felipe (5e2a04) — 11/22/2023 @ 6:12 amNJRob (dd83f2) — 11/21/2023 @ 1:46 pm
Thank you for your kind words, Rob!
felipe (5e2a04) — 11/22/2023 @ 6:19 amThose who adhere to the cynical “never believe anything until it has been officially denied” will find this gives us more reason to think that one story in the “Steele dossier” is true:
(For the record: In my opinion, the dossier is “raw intelligence”. I don’t doubt that informants told Steele many things about Trump, but I have no way to tell which ones are true. In fact, I am not even sure our intelligence agencies could.
But I do know that serious people in the Trump administration wondered whether Putin had blackmail material on Trump.)
Jim Miller (7244e1) — 11/22/2023 @ 8:18 amFor consistency’s sake, I’m still operating under the presumption that everything Trump says is false until proven true, and that includes anything he says about “four hookers”.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/22/2023 @ 8:41 amZero sense of humor…
BuDuh (4214e4) — 11/22/2023 @ 8:46 amAnd Israel continues its history of disproportionality releasing far more current and future terrorists for Israeli hostages.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/22/2023 @ 9:21 amIt’s hardly Biden’s fault. Netanyahu is facing his own political crisis to negotiate the hostages release, and successive Israeli governments have routinely released terrorists to obtain the release of civilian hostages, captured soldiers, and even deceased soldiers. For example:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/22/2023 @ 9:39 amQuoting Patrick Chovanec: “Almost all hostage deals involve unsavory moral compromises. It’s possible to feel relief at the return of the hostages while remaining uneasy about the terms for their release. This isn’t specific to the Hamas hostages. It also refers to the hostages returned recently by Iran, or a while ago by China. “Was it worth it?” is a question nearly impossible to definitely answer. It depends a lot of what you prioritize as most important. Recall it was concern for the plight of long-held hostages that persuaded Reagan to secretly sell weapons to Iran.”
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/22/2023 @ 9:50 amExhuming the Steele Dossier, opening the casket, and applying CPR captures the level of NeverTrumper desperation about as well as anything.
lloyd (cfd8f8) — 11/22/2023 @ 9:50 amYeah, that’s not “our grandfather’s Israel”. Too many Israelis have less concern for the nation’s survival than they have about being shaken out of their comfort zone.
From Rip’s link:
nk (6c45b4) — 11/22/2023 @ 9:58 amEven with the hostage deal, the Hamas terrorist organization is still holding Americans hostage, and the Russian terrorist state is still holding Americans hostage. So many parallels.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/22/2023 @ 9:58 amRead this someplace, it’s not important where, this morning.
nk (c7d8db) — 11/22/2023 @ 10:02 amhttps://legalinsurrection.com/2023/11/they-control-everything-north-carolina-democrat-unleashes-antisemitic-rant-against-jewish-caucus/
The antisemitic Democrat party strikes again.
NJRob (5aa5c1) — 11/22/2023 @ 10:30 amNote that that is the head of the Progressive Caucus, and they likely do not consider themselves Democrats.
SamG (e8b474) — 11/22/2023 @ 10:49 amHere’s a bit of good news. They caught one of the ppl who firebombed an anti-abortion groups HQ. He’s agreed to plead guilty and the prosecutors have agreed to recommend the just take his acceptance of responsibility into account when sentencing. Upper limit is 20 years….Id go for 10-15 years from what I know at the moment.
Time123 (4ff7c4) — 11/22/2023 @ 10:52 amBut I want to WEAKEN THE POLITICAL PARTIES. At least the current ones.
Strong political parties are what give us choices between bad nominees,
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/22/2023 @ 10:56 amStrong political parties (pre-1968) would be able to act as gatekeepers and prevent candidates like Donald Trump from gaining a foothold:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/22/2023 @ 11:27 amYou cannot weaken political parties with the current electoral system. Only when we move to a system where more than one representative is elected in each district will the whole “binary choice” logic disappear.
If you were to elect two or more representatives in a district — with (this is important) only one vote per voter — you will get movement away from the extremes. Also, each voter will have more connection to the resulting legislature and gerrymanders will be uncertain or worse.
As long as parties have the ability to select the ONE candidate running in an uncompetitive district, we will continue to get the bimodal (i.e. polarized) results we’ve been seeing.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 11:30 amStrong political parties (pre-1968) would be able to act as gatekeepers and prevent candidates like Donald Trump from gaining a foothold
But they would do nothing for an MTG or Maxine Waters. Maxine runs in a purportedly open primary, but there is no Democrat who dares run against her in a D+60 district.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 11:32 amWhy would you want to weaken political parties-they are so weak now.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/22/2023 @ 11:33 amNote that that is the head of the Progressive Caucus, and they likely do not consider themselves Democrats.
OK, then Donald Trump does not consider himself a Republican. He’d say “MAGA” if he had to choose.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 11:35 amWhy would you want to weaken political parties-they are so weak now.
Because bimodal legislatures are dysfunctional. There is no middle ground because there is no one in the middle ground. You only get (lurching) movement when one party has a momentary mandate (or the other party sucks).
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 11:37 amAin’t that the truth. And that’s the problem with weak political parties-anyone can run as a Republican or Democrat, without subscribing to the parties core principles. The national parties have no say over whomever hijacks their name.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/22/2023 @ 11:39 amRip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/22/2023 @ 11:33 am
No, they are far too strong. Regardless of how that relates to public opinion.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/22/2023 @ 12:08 pmA strong Republican party now would be controlled by MAGA people. And a strong Democratic Party possibly by DSA pro crime people. This is the case as long as new political parties cannot easily form.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/22/2023 @ 12:11 pm374. Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/22/2023 @ 9:58 am
Stupid of Hamas, if true. And it may be true because Hamas is not proposing to release any males above age 17 or 18. Holding on to any American citizens will guarantee Biden siding with Israel continuing the war.
Biden was involved personally in the negotiations with Hamas (He was talking to Qatar. Four – or maybe just two with the first two bein released for other reasons – people were released in order to prove that Qatar was in contact with people who could release hostages)
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/22/2023 @ 12:19 pmI heard an interview on WABC radio with a women (aged early 20s) who was present at the Brazilian type music festival or rave in Israel..
She was asked about whether they worried about it being so close to Gaza. She said where it would be held was not announced untila few hours before it started.
This proves what I originally thought: Hamas had some spies who were invlolved in the planning for the festival.
The kibbutzim could have had some workers from Gaza who reported back the layout and times to Hamas (in a few cases maybe giving them some wrong information – who knows) but the rave was set on a campground
The interviewee said she was in the middle group in terms of trying to leave. The first group had many killed because Hamas terrorists were waiting for them. The third group, who stayed behind were also killed.
They were running and then saw people running toward them away from the murderers. hey had a choice but, she said, it was like something described by Holocaust survivors – there is a term choiceless choice – choices they made could be the difference between life and death – i.e. they didn’t know what was the right choice.
In the last half hour (or less) here:
https://wabcradio.com/episode/thanksgiving-eve-11-22-23
Now there were some 2,000 attendees and 250 or so killed.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/22/2023 @ 12:32 pmThis sort of thing is not new. But there may be less of an inclination to reach just any agreement. They also cite an old Jewish religious principle: redeeming captives. But even this was for not too high a price.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/22/2023 @ 12:38 pmTerrorist attack at Niagara Falls border crossing. Car bombing.
NJRob (5aa5c1) — 11/22/2023 @ 12:52 pm@384 unfortunately the GOP is far more Trump/MAGA than it is “conservative” – so Trump saying he’s a Republican is accurate at this time.
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/22/2023 @ 12:53 pm“Possible attack”: wait for the investigation to complete. https://www.nydailynews.com/2023/11/22/rainbow-bridge-car-explosion-bomb-threat/
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/22/2023 @ 12:55 pmSam,
it’s a terrorist attack. I didn’t say who did it yet. Car was driving 100 mph the wrong way and loaded with explosives.
That’s called reality.
NJRob (5aa5c1) — 11/22/2023 @ 12:59 pmWell, it could be a normal exploding electric car.
Interesting point + if a terrorist attack
1. They did not approach the southern border
2. Customs is more important than immigration
3. They have nobody inside the country – but only in Canada, like in 1999.
Other crossings were closed in case this was a multi-car attack.
4. It will get worse. This must have been hastily organized.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:00 pmhttps://legalinsurrection.com/2023/11/three-radicals-arrested-for-allegedly-damaging-setting-fire-to-israeli-owned-factory-in-new-hampshire/
More antisemitic, left-wing terrorism from young ladies brainwashed into hating their own country and other freedom loving civilizations.
NJRob (e54f07) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:01 pmYes, speeding car indicates intention – also no hope or no plan to attempt successfully crossing the border.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:02 pm345 B. Six hour truces per day.
The 6+hours is the time of the daily no fly zones for Israeli drones – the truces are continuous.
Only three times the number of Arab prisoners released – all women or boys under the age of 19. Many arrested recently.
Possible extension of truce at the rate of 10 hostages per day may tempt Hamas to release hostages they hadnt been planning to.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:06 pmThe military aid Hamas might get out of this is probably trivial.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:09 pmFuture terrorists.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:14 pmHow so?
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:14 pmThere’s no proof of explosives at this time, and it wouldn’t be the first time someone got drunk and started driving on the wrong side of the road at high speed – or even launching themselves in the air doing so. Be patient: we’ll know if it was or was not an attack soon enough.
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:14 pmAnd it’s not now?
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:16 pmA strong Republican Party would never have allowed MAGA to take control.
A strong Democratic Party would never have allowed Bernie Sanders to run as a Democrat.
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:27 pmRip, you seem to be focused on political parties at the presidential level, when the real problem is in Congress. There’s a reason why we have so many executive orders and administrative overreach — it’s that Congress is polarized around two quite distant axes.
What we see in Congress is two groups, elected by separate constituencies, where the center doesn’t exist (let alone cannot hold). And THAT is because the parties are too strong and have no interest in moderating.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:27 pmMaybe a centrist party can help, but our electoral system rewards polarization. Fascist or Commie, pick!
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:29 pmA strong Republican Party would never have allowed MAGA to take control.
A strong Democratic Party would never have allowed Bernie Sanders to run as a Democrat.
Both of you are wrong. Both parties are very strong and increasingly their focus is away from the center. It will remain there until someone tries to take the center from them.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:30 pmI think Rip correctly views the GOP in 2016 as being weak because they did not control the number of candidates in the primary and allowed unvetted candidates like Trump and Carson to enter. The challenge is that many candidates can now simply bypass parties by using the internet to raise funds. They don’t need to go through the party for visibility, they can go to Fox News, Talk Radio, or again the internet directly. In the case of Congress, I’m not sure how much Gaetz or Boebert even care what committees they are on. That’s not exactly why they are in the GOP caucus. They are there for performance.
I’ve never quite understood open primaries, but even there, that isn’t what got us Trump. We got Trump because the party got radicalized and wanted an outsider to challenge the system. Trump then added his patented authoritarianism to that to then choke out dissent. One of the problems is that the base is convinced that Trump is an authentic Republican or, even transactionally, will get them where they want to go. I think they’ve been conned and that Right Wing media has supported the con.
It hasn’t helped that so many elected representatives are afraid of Trump…and the base….and failed to convict him on impeachment. They are now compromised and can’t turn against him. Mike Lee is unrecognizable. The Right Wing media will have to tire of Trump and his acolytes before we start seeing a swing back to normalcy. There’s not much oxygen for Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney to talk to the base. So, yes, parties have changed and currently have less power. They also have to kow-tow to their radicals because the margins are so small. We need to have people understand the danger of Trump before we can get back to normal discussions of party power. It will either take another loss…or two….or a major crisis instituted by Trump back in the White House. It’s an irritatingly slow process.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:41 pmThat is correct. But your solution to the partisanship in Congress is unlikely to come to pass.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:42 pmI think it started with the Democrats when they nominated McGovern in 1972. The party bosses would never have allowed such a candidate to run for President. The modern primary system, plus independent sources of funding, have allowed anyone to call themselves a Democrat or Republican and run.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/22/2023 @ 1:49 pmI’m not sure how much Gaetz or Boebert even care what committees they are on. That’s not exactly why they are in the GOP caucus. They are there for performance.
Gaetz represents a R+19 district, Boebert a competitive one. MTG’s district is R+22. Gaetz and MTG can do whatever they want and they’ll get re-elected so long as they don’t get a strong primary challenger. And any challenger will be pretty much as in-your-face as they are. MTG’s predecessors include Larry McDonald (Birch Society) and Bob Barr (later LP candidate for president).
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 2:00 pmAgain, you have to differential the presidential contest from the congressional one. National parties are weak, as they have to meld diverse local parties. But those local parties are still smoke-filled back rooms of very powerful local stakeholders, and they generally stop any candidate that does not fit their district.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 2:03 pm*differentiate
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 2:03 pmThat is correct. But your solution to the partisanship in Congress is unlikely to come to pass.
Indeed. Things would have to get much worse before that happens. But that’s because the very strong local and state parties would effing hate it.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 2:04 pmThe modern primary system, plus independent sources of funding, have allowed anyone to call themselves a Democrat or Republican and run.
True. We would not have gotten candidates like McGovern, Carter, Reagan, Obama or Trump that way. The clearest operation of the back-room vs the primaries came in Chicago 1968. Gene McCarthy should have been the candidate — he had the grass-roots support. Instead they gave it to Humphrey who could not beat a split oppositon.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 2:07 pmI think that Rep Greene should try the fire alarm stunt.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 2:46 pmAnother, higher quality video of the car speeding and going airborne at https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1727452318990242131 (I originally saw it in this thread https://twitter.com/Dmojavensis/status/1727418510262009923)
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/22/2023 @ 2:55 pm#372 The person who recently “exhumed” the Steele dossier is no other than the Loser himself.
Jim Miller (157b85) — 11/22/2023 @ 3:13 pmMegan McArdle reminds us that we have much to be thankful for:
(Links omitted.)
Her food budget point is even stronger when we remember that a much bigger proportion of families then were farm families, and raised much of their own food.
Jim Miller (a1b8b8) — 11/22/2023 @ 3:58 pm@407 democrat party would be considered moderate party in europe only in america is anyone to the left of attila the hun considered a communist. Even AOC and bernie don’t want the government to own the means of production and only want a social welfare state. More republicans oppose aid to ukraine then democrats.
asset (7e2f01) — 11/22/2023 @ 4:23 pmonly in america is anyone to the left of attila the hun considered a communist.
Everyone in America is left of Mr Attila. It’s why we don’t have waves of murdering barbarians sacking the cities.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 4:52 pmEven AOC and bernie don’t want the government to own the means of production
Of course not. If the owned it, they couldn’t tax it. They just want to RUN it all as if they owned it. They think that New York would be a much finer city if it had only been planned by young graduates of Swarthmore.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/22/2023 @ 4:55 pmNot a terrorist attack, per the FBI.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/23/2023 @ 7:57 amReally? Antifa protests burning police stations; a nationwide plague of organized shoplifting, ransacking stores and forcing store closures; increasing city murder rates, etc. I’d say the “barbarian” hordes are here.
Rip Murdock (d0505e) — 11/23/2023 @ 10:31 amNot a terrorist attack, per the FBI.
It’s beginning to look like a tragedy due to a medical problem.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 10:49 amReally? Antifa protests burning police stations; a nationwide plague of organized shoplifting,
Perhaps, but even these are “left” of Attila the Hun.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 10:50 amI’m not sure where Attila the Hun lies on the contemporary political spectrum. I would have assumed he would be a leftist, since he invaded and tried to destroy the then civilized world represented by the Byzantine Empire and Rome.
Rip Murdock (d0505e) — 11/23/2023 @ 11:19 amJust as those forces noted in post 426 are doing.
Rip Murdock (d0505e) — 11/23/2023 @ 11:23 amTrump’s holiday messages, like the one today, have become boring and predictable. They’re practically a form letter:
And don’t forget a few all-caps, misspellings and random scare quotes and capitalizations.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/23/2023 @ 12:27 pmGood thing you were searching for it so I didn’t have to waste my entire Thanksgiving, Paul.
If I want to know what Trump is doing at any given moment, all I have to do is click here.
BuDuh (bd1a39) — 11/23/2023 @ 1:07 pmChris Christie yesterday at TheDispatch:
and
AJ_Liberty (a4242b) — 11/23/2023 @ 1:20 pmDon’t lie.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/23/2023 @ 1:39 pmI said it came to me, I didn’t search for it.
“Losing” in Iowa or NH is a relative term.
In Iowa most candidates will receive some delegates as there is no minimum threshold requirement. In 2016 Ted Cruz came in first and won 7; Trump also won 7 coming in second. In fact the top 8 candidates won at least 1 delegate (candidate 9, Chris Christie, won 0 delegates).
The same applies to NH. All candidates that receive 10% or more of votes will receive delegates. In 2016 Trump won the primary and received 11 delegates while John Kasich came in second (20 points behind) and won 4. Again Chris Christie came 6th (winning 7% of the vote) and failed to win any delegates.
Christie is polling at 7.7% in NH and 4% in Iowa. At this rate he won’t win any delegates in either state.
Rip Murdock (d0505e) — 11/23/2023 @ 1:55 pmAnd on the next day (Super Tuesday) 874 Republican delegates will be selected, and by the of trial approximately 70.% of all delegates will have been chosen.
The fact is that Trump’s lawyers are trying to twist his federal election case into knots to delay it even further, so it may not start on time at all.
Rip Murdock (d0505e) — 11/23/2023 @ 2:24 pmPaul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/23/2023 @ 12:27 pm
Yeah, Youtube pushed that video into my feed, Paul. I almost feel like I had something stuck to my back which I needed to remove. Of course, this is the case with most youtube videos…
felipe (79693d) — 11/23/2023 @ 3:35 pmHaving Mark Meadows, his former chief of staff, sit 20 feet from him and admit that he committed crimes at Donald Trump’s direction and that he watched Donald Trump commit crimes. Not some left-wing prosecutor, not some product of the two-tiered system of justice that Trump talks about, but one of the founders of the Freedom Caucus and the guy that he called the next James Baker when he made him chief of staff.
But it will not be televised, and if it’s not televised it is subject to Trump’s spin.
“If it doesn’t happen on TV, it means nothing!”
–Wrong is Right (1982)
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 4:04 pmDonald Trump lost any chance at my vote, and I assume those of other persuadables, when he showed up at the first 2020 debate talking like a barroom drunk.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 4:06 pmIt doesn’t take much to lose an election these days.
W was leading by 4 points going into the final week, then the drunk driving story dropped and he nearly lost it all.
McCain was competitive in 2008, then he suspended his campaign to “help” with the financial meltdown, despite being an economic ignoramus. Something that was quickly made clear.
Romney was leading into the final week, then a hurricane hit New Jersey and New York, and Obama rode into save the day with Chris Christie kissing the ring. Romney lost.
Trump could have won in 2020 if he’d not acted the fool in debate OR if he’d pushed mail voting.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 4:12 pmChristie is polling at 7.7% in NH and 4% in Iowa. At this rate he won’t win any delegates in either state.
Christie won’t make the next debate. I expect him to fold before we start voting, and endorse Haley agaisnt Trump.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 4:14 pmMediate tripe gets pushed into YouTube feeds?
Nah.
Paul catches fish in the ponds he goes to.
BuDuh (bd1a39) — 11/23/2023 @ 4:25 pmOf course those were general elections, not primaries. A candidate could win a few primaries and come in second in others and still accumulate enough delegates to have an overwhelming advantage.
Of the 874 delegates that are up for grabs on Super Tuesday, most are in the West and South. The big enchilada are California’s 169 delegates which represent nearly 20% of the total. No candidate except Trump has an organization here, and his supporters have rigged the rules to his advantage. Any candidate that receives 50% of the votes gets them all.
Rip Murdock (d0505e) — 11/23/2023 @ 4:32 pm“Having Mark Meadows, his former chief of staff, sit 20 feet from him and admit that he committed crimes at Donald Trump’s direction and that he watched Donald Trump commit crimes. Not some left-wing prosecutor, not some product of the two-tiered system of justice that Trump talks about, but one of the founders of the Freedom Caucus and the guy that he called the next James Baker when he made him chief of staff.”
That sounds like it would be very impressive and compelling testimony. Enough to convince any jury in any venue. Too bad it will be put before a judge who already believes Trump is guilty and a heavily skewed jury. That it’s apparently not impressive and compelling enough to merit adjudication in a fair trial should be a clue.
lloyd (b2bc08) — 11/23/2023 @ 4:36 pmWe’ll see. CC claims to have met the donor threshold, and he still has a couple of weeks to meet the polling requirements.
Rip Murdock (d0505e) — 11/23/2023 @ 4:49 pmDid I say anything about YouTube feeds? I’ll answer for you: No.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/23/2023 @ 4:51 pmI was at the site, and that was one of the stories.
I understand that you don’t want Trump’s idiocy and mental illness to be covered, but he’s the goddam GOP frontrunner, by a mile.
The irony is that it’s not me slumming around places like Rumble.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/23/2023 @ 4:51 pmIt burned you that badly?
Wowza.
BuDuh (0fe300) — 11/23/2023 @ 5:37 pmFormer Obama diplomat stuart seldowitz arrested for hate crime for accusing egyptian street vender of being a palestinian hamas supporter and asking him if he is a terrorist. So much for the first amendment.
asset (ad9a9b) — 11/23/2023 @ 5:45 pmThere is such a thing as harassment — confronting someone had haranguing them is not just speech. I don’t really go with “hate crimes” though. This seems more like a “stupid crime.”
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 6:01 pmWe’ll see. CC claims to have met the donor threshold, and he still has a couple of weeks to meet the polling requirements.
Nationally, Christie hasn’t got past 5% since September and his last 10 poll results have been 3% or less. He needs 6% in at least one national poll. He also sucks in Iowa. In NH he’s over 10% and 3rd place, but that’s not enough without a national poll of 6% or more. He last hit 5% in early November and has only gotten that much 3 other times since September 1.
Sadly, Ramaswamy appears to have the polls.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 6:13 pmToo bad it will be put before a judge who already believes Trump is guilty and a heavily skewed jury.
Too bad it will fall on deaf ears among the Cult, who already believe whatever Trump tells them this week.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 6:17 pmTrump should have conspired to overthrow the election from inside the Kremlin, instead of from inside the White House, so he could be tried by a Russian court.
nk (6a8fd9) — 11/23/2023 @ 6:31 pmTrump should have conspired to overthrow the election from inside the Kremlin, instead of from inside the White House, so he could be tried by a Russian court.
Unless the fix is in, no one wants to be tried by a Russian court.
Oh, wait, I mean unless the fix is in YOUR way….
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 6:37 pmDutch Far-Right Leader Wilders Scores Shock Election Victory
There is no “right” any more. The three choices are are “Progressive”, “Moderate” and “Far-Right.”
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 6:40 pmIf Trump had built the Moscow Trump Tower, he could have found himself being tossed off of the penthouse balcony in another in a series of tragic accidents
steveg (13c5d8) — 11/23/2023 @ 6:43 pmRe the YouTube shorts…just be glad it wasn’t inane crap like swing dancing to a 80s German synth pop group (Touch In the Night) or some black dudes asking white cords what’s the freakiest thing you ever did.
urbanleftbehind (e7eb8e) — 11/23/2023 @ 6:51 pmRon DeSantis got good news and bad news this week in Iowa:
The Good News: DeSantis was endorsed by evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.
The Bad News: None of the endorsed candidates won the Republican nomination.
Rip Murdock (f24242) — 11/23/2023 @ 7:28 pmTrump is currently +30 over DeSantis; and even if Trump comes in second or third in Iowa, he will still win some delegates.
Rip Murdock (f24242) — 11/23/2023 @ 7:40 pmAnd even if Trump comes up short for delegates, he can always try the phony delegate scheme.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 10:28 pm@458 you forgot the “christian” evangelical vander plaats was paid $95,000 for the endorsement. Desatan bought the endorsement in august when the news came out (reuters) vander paats waited till now hoping people would forget he is bought and paid for. Desatan will have to come up with a larger contribution to vander plaats so he will again order his congregation to vote for desatan as he did for cancun ted and huckaboob.
asset (ad9a9b) — 11/24/2023 @ 12:04 am555.
CC doesn’t understand what it is that Mark Meadows would likely testify to.
This would be mainly two thngs:\\1. About the classified files – that Trump knew what he was taking to Mar-a-Lago; possibly something about what he had, if he kept in contact with Trump/
2. The plans to replace Electoral votes – no secret and little dispute about it (and no violence intended) – where the issue is whether what Trump agreed on was legal or not.
Sammy Finkelman (b434ee) — 11/24/2023 @ 6:26 am449. asset (ad9a9b) — 11/23/2023 @ 5:45 pm
Did he go from one extreme to the other?
\Maybe not. He was acting director for South Asia in the National Security Council. South Asia is India-Pakistan. Maybe he was a hawk of sorts.
Sammy Finkelman (b434ee) — 11/24/2023 @ 6:31 am,
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/23/2023 @ 10:49 am
It seems not likely a terrorist attack. The car – probably a \eentley – was coming FROM the United States and the driver swerved to avoid another car. He had come from a casino where he often went and was probably heading toward a KISS festival, whatever that was, in Canada. The man was aresidet of western New York State. No explosives found or signs of a bomb. Both the man and the woman in the car were in teir late 40s to early 50s.
But what it was, they haven’t said in anything I read. What kind of medical emergency? Nothing wrong with the car?
Did the passenger attempt to control the car because the driver slumped down or something?
Sammy Finkelman (b434ee) — 11/24/2023 @ 6:43 amThe hostage release was supposed to start about now 9 am \eastern \Standard Time, 4 pm Friday local time, with the ceaseefore starting T 7 aam local time (midnight ||EST)\\The Mossad was reported earlier to have the names of the first 13 to be released but had not notified the fammilies and had no plas to until it actually happened.
12 Thai nationals were released (half of the number thought taken to Gaza) according to the Thai Prime Minister.
Israelis are still expected to be released.
Israel wantedalist and for thre Red Cross to visit them;thought agreed to but Red Cross/Crescent in Gaza knows nthinn about this.\\Hezbollah said it is also part of the ceasefire but Netanyahu sayds no agreement was reached with Hexbollah/ Maybe Nasrullah is trying to aoid apre-emptive strike – so far it’s been nothing but tit for tat.
Sammy Finkelman (b434ee) — 11/24/2023 @ 6:58 amhttps://www.jns.org/13-israeli-hostages-released-after-7-weeks-in-hamas-captivity-watch
As expected (that number was expected today)
Sammy Finkelman (b434ee) — 11/24/2023 @ 7:01 amWhy lie in the first place?
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/24/2023 @ 7:15 amBuDuh (bd1a39) — 11/23/2023 @ 4:25 pm
I refer to Trump’s TG message on youtube, not Paul’s link.
felipe (79693d) — 11/24/2023 @ 7:27 amI understood all that Felipe.
And I concluded that Paul sees the movies that are showing in the theaters where he lurks.
Paul doesn’t like that bit of obviousness.
BuDuh (0fe300) — 11/24/2023 @ 7:34 amAs far as lying, let’s examine a potential lie:
Paul defensive deceleration:
But when we look at the original comment, does anyone see where Paul said “it came to me” or anything equivalent?
Busted.
BuDuh (0fe300) — 11/24/2023 @ 7:44 amYou’re still lying, BuDuh. WTF is wrong with you, troll?
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/24/2023 @ 8:56 amSoo… you see where you said “it came to me?”
Your words, Paul. Not mine.
BuDuh (0fe300) — 11/24/2023 @ 9:14 amBuDuh: “Elitists sure spend some time scouring the internet to find something to wank about.”
Montagu: “There was no “scouring”, the clown show was presented to me, thanks to Elon.”
BuDuh: “Good thing you were searching for it so I didn’t have to waste my entire Thanksgiving, Paul.”
Same deal, BuDuh. Both of your assertions are lies.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/24/2023 @ 9:19 amMaybe you can explain why you’re so offended when the antics of Trump and his cult are presented that you have to resort to smears.
You are relying on your 6:50 AM twitter results to explain your 12:27 PM wholly separate Mediate searches?
Hahahaha!
No wonder you left the time stamps off and eliminated the actual separation of the quotes. That is some tricky there, Paul.
BuDuh (0fe300) — 11/24/2023 @ 9:26 am“where he often went and was probably heading toward a KISS festival, whatever that was, in Canada.”
Wait, sammy doesn’t know who Kiss is?
AJ_Liberty (d19fad) — 11/24/2023 @ 9:52 amAlso, who uses a $300,000 Bentley as a car bomb?
Rip Murdock (f24242) — 11/24/2023 @ 10:15 amJim Ratcliffe?
AJ_Liberty (d19fad) — 11/24/2023 @ 10:31 amKISS is evidently something famous (it was not further identified in the newspaper story I read) and the word festival makes it sound like something having to do with (probably rock and roll) music, but I don’t pay attent ion to rock bands,
I heard of Elvis, the Beatles, the Rolling Stones and a few others (e.g. the Carpenters) and there are a few others I would recognize (like the Monkees – a band created for a TV situation comedy (on NBC I think) that became real and once was featured on an episode of the Munsters unless that was another fictional band, come to think of it I thinkthey had another name) but I don’t follow them. I can’t identify a lot of things on YouGov surveys,
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/24/2023 @ 10:37 amI suppose Thailand paid some form of ransom. but there could be a different explanation.
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/24/2023 @ 10:40 amIsrael is paying for its hostages in future bloodshed.
Rip Murdock (f6433a) — 11/24/2023 @ 10:55 amRip Murdock (f24242) — 11/24/2023 @ 10:15 am
A james Bond villain in a movie
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/24/2023 @ 11:32 amI confine my comments to the real world
Rip Murdock (f24242) — 11/24/2023 @ 12:17 pmt’s possible that not releasing anybody else could cause diplomatic trouble for Hamas’s leaders.
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/24/2023 @ 12:27 pmI confine my comments to the real world
Elon Musk? (A Tesla would disarm itself)
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/24/2023 @ 1:05 pmHe used one to bomb Mars.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/24/2023 @ 1:06 pmHamas decides who and when to release captives., It could not really be any other way,because they need to try to cover up what they’ve done. But Israel and others will get out now whom they can get out safely and Hamas will let out enough so that they will be in bigger trouble by harming anyone else now.
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/24/2023 @ 1:09 pmMore
The Rainbow Bridge incident gives a whole new meaning to “flying”; but what a way to go.
Paragraph breaks added.
Rip Murdock (f24242) — 11/24/2023 @ 2:55 pmWait, sammy doesn’t know who Kiss is?
Does anybody know what KISS is? A goth clown school class which goes out and trashes after-hours leather bars, bringing their cats along to have the yowling accompany the sound of the braking glass, is the best description I can come up with.
nk (80d10a) — 11/24/2023 @ 3:17 pmhttps://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2023/11/24/fiery-but-peaceful-when-irish-eyes-arent-smiling-n594433
Ireland is on fire as the leftist government seeks to replace the native born Irish with a new “global citizen.”
Having their children stabbed isn’t what the Isrish expected from immigration.
NJRob (01cd52) — 11/24/2023 @ 3:38 pmThis story seems plausible to me:
Trump does have a way of trashing anyone who doesn’t worship him.
(I haven’t read anything by Alberta,but he appears to be a repectable journalist.)
Jim Miller (20bc20) — 11/24/2023 @ 3:42 pmEvery place has disaffected thugs that can be stirred up by some manipulative asshole especially if it includes a chance to loot and pillage.
nk (80d10a) — 11/24/2023 @ 4:06 pmAny reason Biden has been weaker than Jimmy Carter when it comes to the Americans held hostage by Hamas?
NJRob (01cd52) — 11/24/2023 @ 4:37 pmTim Alberta wrote this devastating piece in Politico about how Nikki Haley and how she couldn’t decide whether to lead the GOP to a post-Trump future or be Trump’s friend.
Rip Murdock (f24242) — 11/24/2023 @ 6:12 pmWhatever it takes to rationalize your lies, BuDuh. That’s good troll work.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/24/2023 @ 6:17 pmOuch!
Rip Murdock (f24242) — 11/24/2023 @ 6:46 pmFrom the Alberta piece: “…or She [Haley] can cast her lot with Liz Cheney.”
The piece is a couple of years old, though I wonder had Haley gone full-Cheney on Trump as Alberta wonders, would she be sitting in second place….still viable? Or, would she be with Hurd and Hutchinson cast into irrelevancy…but pure?
My initial pondering on the tactics of beating Trump probably agreed that it would take strength in numbers. The non-Trumpian candidates had to sing from the same choir book and deal tough truths about the former President. They had to appeal to moving on and accountability. But now I wonder how this works when Fox News, Talk Radio, and much of the right-wing internet blogosphere doesn’t back your play.
I still believe that on the stump and in the debates the core questions are about Trump’s fitness and electability. The policies might vary on Ukraine, but much of the rest will be in the Republican Overton window. People are sniffing out personalities: Scott was too nice, DeSantis isn’t likable, Pence lost trust, Christie is too mean, and Haley has no core.
Yeah but they’re all better than Trump by a country mile. I’ve still not heard and had demonstrated how Haley was supposed to crack the Trump 50% by now. Lying down on your sword just makes Trump more inevitable. Rip doesn’t seem to struggle with tactical reality. He wants to remind us that the opposition continues to lag, but he really offers no clear alternative path…just fall-on-the-sword and be done with it so Trump can have the nomination. I’ll continue to fight for something better than Trump, thank you.
He says he’s not pro-Trump…and I believe him…but self immolation is precisely what Trump wants. He wants us vexing about Haley’s abortion policy and whether it would be tough enough, as if any of that matters as we face greater international tests. She ain’t perfect…but she’s better than Trump and better than DeSantis too. She can actually beat Biden which used to be what parties cared about.
Rip wants us to grow cynical about Haley…and be even more cynical about the GOP voters…and even cast doubt about the value of voting. Hey it’s a free internet, but a Chinese troll couldn’t do better. I just think you fight until it’s over. Rather than inundating undecideds with inevitability and disparaging Darling Nikki’s, I say keep the focus on Trump’s tsunami of unfitness. When votes count, maybe we’ll see a change of heart.
AJ_Liberty (a2a682) — 11/24/2023 @ 9:53 pmI’m not sure what you mean by “tactical reality.” As you say, “ The non-Trumpian candidates had to sing from the same choir book and deal tough truths about the former President. They had to appeal to moving on and accountability”, for one thing there are really only two anti-Trump candidates: two candidates are pro-Trump (DeSantis and Ramaswamy); two are adamantly anti-Trump (Christie and Hutchinson, both lower tier candidates); and one is trying to split the difference (Haley, who among other positions, agrees with the pro-Trump candidates to pardon Trump.)
Any alternatives that are offered will have no real impact on the future. It’s all just wishful thinking. I just prefer to deal with today’s political reality and not speculate what might happen if A, B, or C happens, because A, B, or C may not happen.
I’m not trying to convince anyone to be cynical about Nikki Haley, GOP voters, or the value of voting. I’m just stating my opinion and people here can take it or leave it. I don’t see any mass movement of Republican voters away from Trump. May be it will happen when people actually start voting or caucusing, but I’m not convinced.
Rip Murdock (f24242) — 11/24/2023 @ 11:15 pmComparing me to a “Chinese troll” was unnecessary; I would have expected it from others here but not you.
P. S.: You have often said in other posts that Trump would appear weak by not debating his opponents. However, since the first debate his national polling lead in the 538 average has increased from 55% to 60%; and his favorability among Republicans has held steady at around 76%. It appears his non-participation in debates has had little effect on his political strength.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 12:13 am“I’m not sure what you mean by “tactical reality.””
If you go hard anti-Trump, currently you shrink your ceiling. Hard anti-Trump is NOT where the right-wing media is at and that media has the power to generate momentum. I get and agree that a leader must lead, even if the message is unpopular. But here it means literally making oneself irrelevant. Again, this is an intervention for the GOP base. Trump has created a MAGA identity that people are resistant to shed. There’s psychology afoot as to how to break this down. Not all interventions are successful. This one does not look overly promising….but as with addicts, there has to be some self-realization too. Shaming the addict may create an opposite effect.
There’s no magic Brian Kemp or Glenn Youngkin to plug in and change the dynamic. It’s not Nikki Haley’s fault that she hasn’t already swung the pendulum. Lots of moderates and independents like her precisely because she’s not brash or extreme. She’s measured which certainly comes across as calculating, but the alternative is teaching college along side Liz Cheney.
We want her to say what we are thinking. I’m sure her internal polling tells her to do something else. There needs to be more high-visibility defections from Trump, both politically and in the media. Until that courage surfaces, the field consolidates and the choice becomes more clear. Four more years of instability and uncertainty…or something different. I think that choice becomes more attractive as we get closer to voting.
AJ_Liberty (a2a682) — 11/25/2023 @ 6:37 am“However, since the first debate his national polling lead in the 538 average has increased from 55% to 60%; and his favorability among Republicans has held steady at around 76%.”
But think about that for a second. It’s not really based on anything substantive. It’s not like Trump has come out with strongly persuasive positions on international affairs, the economy, or on his legal cases. We’re still just measuring a tantrum in the snack aisle of the grocery store. Eventually the child must get off the floor, dry his eyes, and rationally accept reality. Reality #1 is that you don’t nominate someone who will likely be a convicted felon. Kick or scream all you want, a criminal won’t win the election.
“Comparing me to a “Chinese troll” was unnecessary;”
AllahNick is increasingly in the same boat. Too harsh? We’re all consumed with picking the result. As if we will win some valuable internet prize. Black Mirror has some great episodes relating to this psychology. I get that this is just about “speaking reality”. But humans want more than just dystopian and depressing narratives. It’s not like there’s a great flood coming and we need to be building an ark. It’s also not the time to wallow in despair. If Trump wins the nomination, it’s terrible but also just a small piece of this grand thing called life. Sometimes we need to see the glass as half full…and not that it’s about to crack and spill and cut our radial artery….just sayin’
AJ_Liberty (a2a682) — 11/25/2023 @ 7:15 amTrump’s poll numbers are based on what Republican respondents see between the Lilliputians and Donald Trump (especially DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and Haley) and they don’t like what they see.
Rightly or wrongly, they view DeSantis as a globalist corporate Republican and don’t give him any credit for what he has accomplished in Florida; Ramaswamy is a young upstart who is part of Big Pharma who doesn’t know American history or the Constitution; and have misogynistic view of Haley and particularly resent her flip flopping on the Confederate flag .
Add in racism towards Ramaswamy and Haley and that’s how you get Trump’s polling results.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 7:54 amAdd the true believers that the 2020 election was stolen and will not be convinced.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 7:59 amI understand the frustration when the world doesn’t go your way. We will only find out how things turn out when the primaries begin. Beyond that, we only have information on how the voters feel now about Trump and the other candidates. And right now they want Trump.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 8:06 amTrump’s supporters don’t see him this way. If you want to say that this is only so because his supporters are also tantrum throwers, well, that’s fine with me because it only supports the following:
Polls are measuring his supporters reaction to Trumps trials and tribulations. The more lawfare thrown at him, the more attractive he becomes to the disaffected, the marginalized. The mugshot from his Geogia “appearance” succeeded to chance the perception of Trump by the streetfolk and the “legally challenged” folk, who began to consider him as one of them.
There a videos aplenty where Trump is spoken of as “now he’s a n*gger” because of his mugshot. Why do you think Che T-shirts are worn by the ignorant young liberals? They love a rebel. Now every appeal to Trump’s wealth and white privilege will fall flat in the eyes of the masses who yearn for a cause to champion. Even if that cause leads to destruction.
I’m an Independant who is going to vote “never Democrat.” Give me someone to worthy vote for. The right has my vote, so use it well.
felipe (79693d) — 11/25/2023 @ 8:08 amSorry for my dyslexia and poor grammar. My mind fails more often these days. Thank you for your patience.
felipe (79693d) — 11/25/2023 @ 8:11 amTrump is a known quantity to his supporters, they are looking for more of the same (which looks better and better to them when compared to the Biden Administration). Also, his supporters may be attracted to his proto-authoritarian plans.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 8:21 amNo, the polls indicate an unwillingness by the GOP base to accept that Trump’s indictments do in fact matter and though his Talk-Radio-like bravado appeals to them, that it doesn’t to moderates and independents who will tilt the swing states.
I refuse to infer that most Republicans are racists and sexists….or that they deeply care about Haley’s supposed insincerity about the confederate flag or her realistic position on abortion. You choose to use the derogatory term “Lilliputian” which clearly Trump would more than love. You might say “it’s reality”, but note that it is a glaring choice.
As people get off the grocery store floor and get better informed about Trump’s liabilities (he’s only been the maestro to electoral losses since 2016)….and the potential instability of a vengeance term….you will see less personality worship as reflected in today’s polls…and more hardened realism as we get to actual votes. There are more good Americans out there than you care to consider…
AJ_Liberty (a2a682) — 11/25/2023 @ 8:39 amThe piece is a couple of years old, though I wonder had Haley gone full-Cheney on Trump as Alberta wonders, would she be sitting in second place….still viable? Or, would she be with Hurd and Hutchinson cast into irrelevancy…but pure?
Armchair politicos do this a lot. They demand that professional politicians take some pure tack, irrespective of whether their party (their “workplace”) will accept it. The problem is that, in our system, there are only two employers for a politician and changing employers is difficult.
A few politicians have managed to be mavericks, and even fewer have managed to drag their party to a new paradigm. Most however, have to stay within certain bounds. Haley tried, on J7, to get the GOP to abandon Trump. Didn’t work and she accepted that. Liz Cheney didn’t accept that and now Liz Cheney is retired.
The fact is, though, that of the candidates still in the race, only Haley offers a path back to traditional Republican values. Opposing Trump’s hijack is more effective than opposing Trump, and more useful.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 8:56 amWe want her to say what we are thinking. I’m sure her internal polling tells her to do something else.
I was fairly frustrated early on, as she seems to be playing it safe. But, last March, there was really no profit in rocking the boat. Over the last few months we’ve seen her criticism of Trump’s positions increase, and her differences with Trump the man start to come out.
She’s walking a tightrope here. Is that calculating? I EFFING HOPE SO. I want a president who CAN calculate and act on that calculation. We may be in a war with China later this decade and I want cold and calculating, not hot and impulsive. This may be the most important thing.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 9:14 amHaley slowly moves her personal Overton window towards traditional Republicanism, but not so fast as to make MAGA recoil. Her goal is to be there, as the alternative, when Trump’s fortunes collapse. That is, of course, DeSantis’ goal too.
Neither one of them would have entered the race if Trump had not sabotaged himself with J6, retaining TS material, and his fake elector scheme. Trump would be running as unopposed as Biden is.
But Trump’s only game now is trying to stay viable through the election, and Haley and DeSantis are betting he can’t.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 9:15 amTrump is a known quantity to his supporters
Yes, and where that are other known quantities (as in the early primary states where there is political dialogue), Trump’s numbers are in decline.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 9:18 amVOTE TRUMP! He will help you unhappy losers.
nk (80d10a) — 11/25/2023 @ 9:23 amTrump voters don’t care about his positions on issues (which can be found here), their support is more visceral.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 9:29 amWhen do you expect that to happen?
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 9:35 amWhen do expect that to happen?
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 9:36 amWe’ll find out soon enough. Days to Iowa caucus: 51. Days to NH primary: 59
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 9:45 amRight now that’s a losing bet.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 9:48 amIf Trump survives through Super Tuesday, and wins a majority of the 874 delegates at stake, it will likely be game over.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 9:51 amWhen do expect that to happen?
It’s happening already. Trump is at 60% nationally, but under 50% in Iowa and NH.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 10:50 amIf Trump survives through Super Tuesday, and wins a majority of the 874 delegates at stake, it will likely be game over.
Trump can have a majority of delegates, but arrive at the convention with 3 felony convictions and have those delegates reconsider. #NoRobots
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 10:51 amWe’ll find out soon enough. Days to Iowa caucus: 51. Days to NH primary: 59
An eternity in politics
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 10:53 amTrump has been under indictment for the past 247 days and his support is stronger than ever.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 11:30 amAll he needs is a plurality to win the majority of delegates in Iowa and NH.
We’ll see. I don’t see delegates picked by the Trump campaign voting against him at the convention.
I also doubt he will have three criminal convictions by the time of the Republican convention in July. He won’t be convicted in New York (trial scheduled on March 25, 2024 but may be rescheduled); the Espionage Act trial is scheduled for May 2024, but again may be postponed; the only trial that poses a risk during the campaign is the election interference trial, which again may delayed by Trump’s legal maneuverings.
None of these cases are a sure thing before the convention.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 11:57 am“Trump has been under indictment for the past 247 days and his support is stronger than ever.”
Perhaps a conviction is different than an indictment. People will have to put their big-boy pants on and explain how exactly you get a convicted felon elected…with other indictments lingering. Trump will hemorrhage support and his numbers will crater. With almost all of the evidence coming from Republicans, you can only spin this as a Democrat plot for so long. He’s winning now because too much media on the Right can’t grapple honestly with the indictments. Soon that will be over.
“but arrive at the convention with 3 felony convictions and have those delegates reconsider”
At least one, with a second one brewing. There’s no way to know how this will play because most Republicans polled don’t know enough factual information about Trump’s charges. They only have heard spin masters on Fox and in Talk Radio rationalizing, excusing, and then deflecting over to Hunter and Joe. As more facts come out as to what witnesses are saying, Trump won’t lose everyone but he will drop precipitously. His rhetoric and actions will get more extreme…and we will probably see some form of violence. If we get there, then I see anything goes at the convention. The core of Republicans will not self immolate.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/25/2023 @ 12:11 pm@502 desatan is underwater in floriduh polling 50% to 47% as he can’t fool his own state. Con men get in trouble when they believe their own con. Paid vander plaat 95,000 dollars to endorse him in Iowa. (reuters) Thats more then cancun cruz and huckaboob paid him.
asset (2cbf2f) — 11/25/2023 @ 12:51 pm@525 Maggots will say political hit job on trump. They are saying it know like they say he won the 2020 election.
asset (2cbf2f) — 11/25/2023 @ 12:53 pmWho are more delusional trumpsters or never trumpsters who keep saying maggots will turn on trump as he rises in the polls. Iowa is caucus giving maggots more power to persuade. (intimidate)
asset (2cbf2f) — 11/25/2023 @ 12:58 pmWe’ll see.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 1:16 pmDo you think Trump’s supporters care about “factual information”-they still believe the 2020 election was stolen and disbelieve anything the government tells them. The indictments have been a public record for months-if they cared they would have read them and seen the truth. All they see is Trump being persecuted by his political opponent.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 1:24 pm@502 “and have misogynistic view of Haley and particularly resent her flip flopping on the Confederate flag . Add in racism towards Ramaswamy and Haley and that’s how you get Trump’s polling results.”
@525 “He’s winning now because too much media on the Right can’t grapple honestly with the indictments.”
Rolling out Deplorables v2.0 and Vast Right Wing Conspiracy v2.0 probably makes HRC feel vindicated. The reality is that Trump has a majority of support among the many millions of GOP voters, so it might be time to quit throwing a tantrum in the snack aisle, get your big boy pants on, and explain why that is without flailing with DNC throwback talking points that didn’t even work.
lloyd (f5bb9b) — 11/25/2023 @ 1:31 pmI really don’t know what you and Kevin M base your certainty on.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 1:38 pmSorry I truncated your name in post 532.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 1:44 pm@530, that’s just wish-casting in the opposite direction…along with trials being successfully delayed for months. Trump’s team can try, but they’ve already antagonized the sitting judge in DC. She will want to avoid reviewable error, but she does not have to bend over backwards for Trump…especially with an election looming. The electorate deserves to get a verdict on election interference before there is another election to interfere with. Trump’s team is welcome to go down the crazy road looking for conspiracies that they cannot prove. He, by extension, will just look crazier and crazier. The judge will be on the lookout for fishing expeditions that are ludicrous…like blaming the FBI.
Trump supporters are NOT a monolith. Many of them are people who voted for Romney and McCain and who falsely believe that Trump offers the best odds against Biden. There is certainly a loon contingent that I would estimate at 20% of his 60% support (1/3). They will make it hard for any Republican to win, but that was always going to be the problem. The trial will be high drama. The leadup to the trial will be high drama. The culture loves high drama. People will pay attention. I don’t see this working in Trump’s favor…or that he will stay hinged. Jack Smith will deconstruct Trump’s imaginary world…and the best Trump will do is howl like a madman.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/25/2023 @ 1:53 pmWe’ll see if that happens. I’m not betting on it.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:01 pmWhat the electorate deserves and what they get are sometimes two different things.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:07 pmWould this be the same “loon contingent” that elected Trump in 2016 and nearly re-elected him in 2020?
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:10 pm“but arrive at the convention with 3 felony convictions and have those delegates reconsider”
There are multiple charges in each case. Each one can lead to a felony conviction.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:14 pmDo you think Trump’s supporters care about “factual information”-they still believe the 2020 election was stolen and disbelieve anything the government tells them.
In the end, not even a majority of Republicans.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:17 pmThere is also the 4th paragraph of the 25th Amendment:
Imagine, if you will, that Trump is convicted in June and sentenced in September to 10 years in prison. He is nonetheless elected. In December his expedited appeal is turned down by the Supreme Court and he is ordered to surrender to federal custody.
“unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”
Hopefully, his VP isn’t MTG.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:21 pmTrump’s argument have been that a President should be immune from prosecution for criminal actions committed while in office. This is asserted because Trump claims that it was all done in furtherance of his actual duties as President to ensure that the laws are enforced (like election fraud). If there is any immunity for a President to commit questionable criminality, I’m confident that appeals courts will draw the line outside of what was done in the run-up to J6. The conspiracy of what was done is clear. I don’t see prosecutorial overreach. This should move through appeal quickly. As Smith notes: “[T]he Constitution grants a president no power to engage in a criminal conspiracy to defeat a federal government function through deceit”.
Trump’s emerging defense looks as follows:
1. Trump didn’t have requisite intent because the voting data suggested to him malfeasance;
2. Political speech is aspirational speech and should be broadly protected;
3. He was acting on advice of counsel;
4. The above immunity assertion that his acts are too close to allowable acts to prosecute;
I think Smith is able to bring in Trump’s intent…and for individuals with IQ’s north of double-digit, this will look bad. The number of competent individuals advising Trump and the type of data that they possessed will look staggering next to Trump’s juvenile claims. His defense…and by proxy Trump…will look ridiculous as we head toward a nominating convention. Yes the cult with continue to cult, but the emperor’s nakedness will be front and center…and will leave most unimpressed.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:44 pmI don’t expect Trump to be convicted of anything before Super Tuesday, and possibly the convention.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:44 pmLOL! Appeals take years.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:46 pmTop donors increasingly believe Nikki Haley can topple Trump in the GOP presidential primaries and they’re telling others to open up their checkbooks
and
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:47 pmLOL! Appeals take years.
Nixon’s appeal of the “tapes” decision took less than 2 months from the district court ruling to the Supreme Court decision. Bush v Gore took, what, a week?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:50 pmLink: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Nixon
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:51 pmOnce it looks like Trump might NOT be nominated, we will see a preference cascade.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:52 pmI now agree that appeals would be much shorter, since like in Bush v. Gore, Trump has a favorable Supreme Court.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:54 pmNeither were appeals of criminal convictions, my comment in 548 refers to an interlocutory appeal of a court ruling. Appeals of criminal convictions take years. Assuming Trump is elected he will avoid that process by pardoning himself.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 3:00 pmGiven who some of billionaires previously backed I would question their judgment.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/25/2023 @ 3:08 pmGiven who some of billionaires previously backed I would question their judgment.
Besides Donald Trump (or other heirs), I would be hesitant to question the judgement of a billionaire. They generally have made good moves.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 3:30 pmHamas released 10 Thai nationals and one citizen of the Philippines on Black Friday. Although in general, it has been known that others could be released noonekne then it was coming. It had been announced originally by Egypt and I think Qatar that there were 12 Thai nationals but this was wrong. An additional 4 Thais were thrown in on Saturday, They are not part of the Israeli deal exactly,
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/25/2023 @ 4:47 pmWith regard to the high speed crash at the Canadian border, it seems they are circling back to mechanical failure, I can’t see it unless the owner did some customizing of the Bentley.
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/25/2023 @ 4:50 pmNJRob (01cd52) — 11/24/2023 @ 4:37 pm
He’s not weaker. Jimmy Carter was pathetic, always expecting to succeed, and even trying a failed rescue,
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/25/2023 @ 5:03 pmI was talking about appeals like an assertion of immunity from prosecution. Appealing the case on claimed error will take years no doubt. I see nothing in the DC case which would delay a verdict beyond the election. Federal criminals don’t generally get to hang out outside of prison waiting for appeal. He will likely deal at that point.
Further, on the issues that he may appeal during the trial, I see no judge bending over backwards to give him favorable rulings, especially if its a question of first impression. These aren’t usually people taken in by the grift
AJ_Liberty (d19fad) — 11/25/2023 @ 7:07 pmNeither were appeals of criminal convictions
The case of a presidential candidate, or a president-elect, would be handled with amazing speed.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 10:26 pmKevin M (ed969f) — 11/25/2023 @ 10:26 pm
Only if it’s a limited issue that could be quickly decided, if expedited.
Like the Nixon tapes subpona, or recounts in the Florida 2000 election.
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/26/2023 @ 10:53 amNikki Haley trying to be all things to all voters
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/26/2023 @ 11:26 amHaley is also “inclined” to pardon Donald Trump if she is elected; and has “declined” to say if Trump is a danger to American democracy.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/26/2023 @ 11:34 amTrump wrote of Haley: “’I will never run against our great President,’ she said, ‘he has done an outstanding job.’ To which I responded, ‘How nice of you to say, Nikki,’ knowing full well that her words mean nothing. She even came to Mar-a-Lago with her family, ‘bearing gifts.’ Anyway, Birdbrain doesn’t have the TALENT or TEMPERAMENT to do the job. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
As house burns, Rip focuses on crab grass.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/26/2023 @ 12:05 pmNo doubt. We’ve see this sort of poll manipulation throughout history, and we’ve seen the preference cascades before as well. It should be obvious… think about the consequences communicated for disloyalty. That creates the situation.
Trump and the left (BIRM) wouldn’t need to campaign so hard that Desantis has no hope, if they were sure the primary were over. They would instead be magnanimously uniting the coalition to somehow beat the guy who won the last election in a rematch.
Just bear in mind, most Trump fans, most Trump critics, most Biden supporters, most Americans, are actually decent folks who want the same general vision for our country. Our priorities differ here and there, but most of political difference these days is entirely based on hysterical caricatures of who we’re supposed to vote against. This division is causing widespread decline in civilization, and it is stupid.
dustin (072dd2) — 11/26/2023 @ 12:22 pmDustin, did you mean “never trump” and the left?
That would make sense.
Also, as usual I agree with much of what you wrote, although I don’t think the polls are being manipulated. I think at this point in time most of the GOP prefers Trump to the other candidates.
Time123 (c15334) — 11/26/2023 @ 2:36 pmI have created hundreds of posts related to Trump here, all of which have been negative about his politics, policies, personal behavior, and impact on democracy. Every time there is a new development in his civil litigation, I post something about it. Whenever there is significant development in his criminal investigations, I post something about it.
I think you overestimate the influence of this forum. Continually posting “Trump is bad” here is preaching to the choir. There are other things happening during this election, not just “Trump is bad.”
I would rather hear DeSantis or Haley continually say “Trump is bad” and explain why, but they are unable to do so. Your complaint is with them, not me.
Rip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/26/2023 @ 4:22 pmHi dustin,
Long time since I’ve seen you here. Hope that is because all is well and you are preserving sanity pursuing better interests.
I agree that we as American voters have made some hysterical (and unkind) caricatures. I know I tend to do the same and blame it on polarization, rather than resisting it and changing myself.
Your voice and thoughts are much appreciated.
Stay safe, be happy,
Thank you.
steveg (292c01) — 11/26/2023 @ 4:23 pmTrump will just move on like he always does when he insults someone, but calling Haley a “birdbrain” isn’t going to win him any more of the suburban mom vote. That said, the far left are planning to call Haley worse if she gets the nomination.
Trump calling out anyone for their temperament is pretty funny, if you are like me and find that huge lack of self awareness humorous.
I do think Haley is more of a multi dimensional talent than Trump is. Trump is one note, and obviously very good at that one note, but this time around I think we’d be better served by Haley than either Trump or Biden.
steveg (292c01) — 11/26/2023 @ 4:36 pmDeSantis and Haley will never “aggressively criticize” Trump-they both need his voters in the primary and general elections. Christie’s aggressive criticism of Trump is what has driven up his negatives among Republican voters. For example:
Rip Murdock (08f249) — 11/26/2023 @ 5:00 pmThanks Steve. Life is good, and I wish you well!
Dustin (072dd2) — 11/26/2023 @ 5:01 pmLOL nope
Dustin (072dd2) — 11/26/2023 @ 5:03 pmRip Murdock (cc585f) — 11/26/2023 @ 11:26 am
One of thee days, Rip will post something favorable about Haley or, well, about anyone actually. I won’t stay up nights to wait for it though.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/26/2023 @ 5:20 pmDustin, did you mean “never trump” and the left?
NO, he meant Trump and the left (BIRM). Trump is the needed Emmanuel Goldstein for the Left to rally against in their Two-Minute Hate.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/26/2023 @ 5:26 pmI have created hundreds of posts related to Trump here, all of which have been negative
Oh, this I believe fully. Because everything you write is negative.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/26/2023 @ 5:28 pm“Your complaint is with them, not me.”
I’m glad we got that sorted out.
AJ_Liberty (aa126b) — 11/26/2023 @ 5:28 pmDeSantis and Haley will never “aggressively criticize” Trump-they both need his voters in the primary and general elections. Christie’s aggressive criticism of Trump is what has driven up his negatives among Republican voters.
This is a fact. But then Christie isn’t running to win the election. He’s trying to make it so that Trump loses it. Who wins is not something he cares about.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/26/2023 @ 5:30 pmThat said, the far left are planning to call Haley worse if she gets the nomination.
Well, I was hoping they’d be talking up the “first woman” but maybe that’s not in the cards.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/26/2023 @ 5:33 pmPerfect, Kevin. Yes.
I don’t care to elaborate, and doubt I can add anything productive to arguing about politics these days. I wish I could.
Dustin (072dd2) — 11/26/2023 @ 5:39 pmMore Sharpie opportunities for Trump.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/26/2023 @ 8:37 pmI haven’t said a bad word about Christie. I would rather see him as Trump’s one on one opponent than anyone.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 8:50 amNever.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 8:51 amIdentity politics.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 9:04 amOnly Trump can reelect Biden/Harris. You heartless people, with your DeSantises, Christies, and Haleys, don’t you care at all about that? Won’t you spare a thought for poor Joe and poor Kamala, out of work, out of sight, and out of mind on January 20, 2025?
nk (bb1548) — 11/27/2023 @ 9:24 amThat’s not quite true. I will stop criticizing her once she stops changing her positions to suit her audiences.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 11:05 am“First woman” what? There have female presidential candidates before, so Haley is nothing new. She hasn’t won anything yet.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 11:21 amAt some point, the Haley / DeSantis campaign need to have a “come to Jesus” moment and one of them need to step aside.
I’m hoping it’s during IA/NH primary to allow a, as Dustin said, “preference cascade” to form.
We need a strong “not Trump” candidate…and soon.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/27/2023 @ 11:47 am@561 I’ll argue that the current political moment is one of small-L liberalism vs illiberalism – both left and right. As such the first order priority is “Will we remain a liberal democracy or not?”, with second order priorities like tax levels and other policies taking a back seat.
Sam G (8d2ed1) — 11/27/2023 @ 11:53 amThe “come to Jesus” moment needs to be when Haley and DeSantis decide they need to fully condemn Trump. But I won’t hold my breath.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 11:54 amI agree with Whembly and would have no problem voting for
Time123 (1bd686) — 11/27/2023 @ 11:58 amEither Haley or Desantis in a primary against Trump.
Unfortunately for myself, Haley at the moment has no campaign in California, and DeSantis’s Super PAC pulled out a long time ago.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 12:44 pm@585
DeSantis has done that.
But more to the point, he pointed out WHY he’s a better candidate.
Haley hasn’t done a whole lot to contrast herself from Trump, but whenever it does come up, she’s done a decent job positioning herself superior to Trump.
What you’re not going to get, is a flat-out condemnation where they list out all the “horribles” of Trump’s past deeds. You can’t run a campaign like that without alienating his supporters.
The best path forward for them, imo, is to detail WHY they’d be a better candidate than Trump by elaborating exactly what they will DO as POTUS.
DeSantis nailed it here:
https://youtu.be/PasGbj7W_tM
I’m sure Haley’s time will come too where she’ll be able to provide such a contrast.
But, in the end, if you’re truly a #NeverTrumper… you couldn’t do worst than Trump than Haley/DeSantis.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/27/2023 @ 12:45 pmDeSantis’ target audience and Haley are trying to get extra votes from different people. DeSantis’ target audience, someone wrote, is traditional (circa 2016?) Republican conservatives who like what Trump did, but not Trump or are afraid he would unaccountably (to them) lose.
Haley’s target audience is Democrats and independents who might vote in Republican primaries
Christie’s target audience is New Hampshire, and he has developed no real plans for after that.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/27/2023 @ 12:48 pmIt’s good to know who Haley will be beholden to.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 12:49 pmAJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/25/2023 @ 2:44 pm
Tis is possibly another place Jack Smith might think he could use Mark Meadows’ testimony.
Trump’s defense to that would be:
A> it doesn’t matter what he, in his heart, believed. More for legal arguments.
B> Trump wasn’t clear in whatever he said to Meadows
c> Trump wavered.
Trumps not being accused of incitement.
Not usually a defense but might be some defense if the charges are what he tried to do legally. It would be a defense against fraud. Will most appear in the documents case
This will at most cause a quick trip to the Supreme Court.
I think Smith is able to bring in Trump’s intent…and for individuals with IQ’s north of double-digit, this will look bad. The number of competent individuals advising Trump and the type of data that they possessed will look staggering next to Trump’s juvenile claims. His defense…and by proxy Trump…will look ridiculous as we head toward a nominating convention. Yes the cult with continue to cult, but the emperor’s nakedness will be front and center…and will leave most unimpressed.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/27/2023 @ 12:59 pmIt still has to be something criminal. For many things his general intent doesn’t matter one way or the other. It might matter politically.
All the facts are known. All a trial can do is get it more attention.
They will just move the goalposts. So there wasn’t ballot stuffing or changing of votes — but they changed the rules. They wont notice not enough.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/27/2023 @ 1:03 pmI guess I will remain disappointed and disaffected. Since they have both agreed to pardon Trump (and DeSantis to pardon the J6 insurrectionists), I find that to be cold comfort. Neither candidate has condemned Trump in no uncertain terms a la Chris Christie. As you point out, they are “preserving their options” to attract Trump supporters (wishful thinking in my book).
You can do better than Haley or DeSantis-Chris Christie.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 1:05 pmPardon Trump from what??
Holding on to documents?
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 11/27/2023 @ 1:11 pmWhat about his current ones-multiple felony indictments, haranguing public officials and private citizens, his fraudulent claims about the 2020 election, his authoritarian policy proposals, etc. Giving Trump a pass while extolling your “virtues” is not the way to beat Trump.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 1:16 pmAny federal indictment, but specifically anything related to January 6. DeSantis and Haley on pardons for Donald Trump.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 1:21 pm@596
So they’re not perfect.
Got it.
Next question: Would Haley or DeSantis be better for the US than a 2nd Biden administration?
whembly (5f7596) — 11/27/2023 @ 1:40 pmThere won’t be a second Biden administration under any circumstances.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 1:44 pm@586, FNC can still figure prominently in helping Haley or DeSantis get more competitive. I’m not sure if that works with their business model or with how much the opinion-side of the house is invested with Trump. At this point, I can’t imagine Hannity, Ingraham, Waters, or Bartiromo leaving Trump’s side. They can’t admit that suddenly J6 and classified documents matter. You would think that Trump fatigue would set in. We’ll see.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/27/2023 @ 1:52 pmEntertaining pardons of Donald Trump (for both the Espionage Act and January 6th cases), as well as the J6 insurrectionists, is so far from just not being perfect but condoning his behavior. It’s certainly disqualifying.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 1:53 pm@598
If Trump’s the GOP nominee, we’re likely looking at a 2nd Biden administration.
Democrats may dislike Biden, but they’ll come “home” and vote for Biden on election day.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/27/2023 @ 1:54 pm@600
I find any of the likely Democrats equally disqualifying… if not more.
Now what?
whembly (5f7596) — 11/27/2023 @ 1:55 pmI expect Biden to be impeached and withdraw from the nomination process for reasons of age or ill health.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:17 pmI expect Biden to withdraw regardless. Likely within the next month, if he wants to give his party a fighting chance against Haley.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:24 pmI find any of the likely Democrats equally disqualifying… if not more
Indeed. Wanting to tax productive people out of the fruits of their labor, so that those who refuse to work can have nice things is moral leprosy.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:25 pmBoth Haley and DeSantis will “be open” to pardons during the election campaign. It’s a sop to MAGA, sure. But it’s a necessary sop.
Now, after they are in office? Not so sure. After all, Rip, you complain that Haley had that flag removed after promising to keep it (never mind the intervening issues).
I can see either of them saying something like “Imprisoning a former president is something we should avoid; the Office still require respect. Accordingly, the sentences are commuted to house arrest, subject to a retirement from public life.”
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:29 pmAny federal indictment, but specifically anything related to January 6. DeSantis and Haley on pardons for Donald Trump.
Let’s assume for a moment that the entire universe of choice is “Trump, Haley or DeSantis.” Are you arguing that we must back Trump because only he has not promised to pardon Donald Trump?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:31 pmThat good old two-tiered system of justice raises its head again.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:32 pmMajor Trump donors … now insist he’s their best choice
FIFY. Dog bites man.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:32 pm@603
Impeached and removed? No. Will never, ever happen.
Unless this a check out there with the word “bribe” on the memo.
As to him withdrawing due to age or ill health, it’d have to be either:
a) he really deteriorate in health, or dies.
or
b) Both Biden and VP Harris says they won’t re-run for election (as Democrats don’t want Harris at the top of ticket).
At the end of the day, it’s Biden’s staff (holdover from Obama administration) is going to make that call, and I think they’ll push for Biden to run for re-election.
It’s getting pretty late in the game for another candidate to start up a campaign, and Democrats best hope they don’t find themselves picking a different candidate than what the primaries held during the convention. That way leads to chaos and for sure electoral loss…
whembly (5f7596) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:32 pmNo. There is another option-just don’t vote; which is what I intend to do since the Democrats have a mortal lock on California.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:33 pmThat good old two-tiered system of justice raises its head again.
We’ve seen it before. We’ll see it again. The alternatives are sometimes worse. Do you think that Bill Clinton should have gone to jail for perjury?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:34 pmNo. There is another option-just don’t vote; which is what I intend to do since the Democrats have a mortal lock on California.
And to think that people say you just want to surrender.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:34 pmThe Democrats only have a mortal lock on CA as long as Trump is still around to demonize. #TwoMinuteHate
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:36 pm@609
Trump deserves a lot of the legal headache that’s coming his direction.
But, don’t act like other politicians, namely Democrats, faces the same sort of scrutiny and zeal that Trump faces.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:37 pm@613
Am I misremembering this? Wasn’t Clinton ultimately charged with civil perjury? Which means zero possible jail time?
whembly (5f7596) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:39 pm@615
Democrats has mortal lock on CA for the next election cycles at the very minimum regardless whomever the GOP nominee.
However, I wished the CA GOP party would spend time/money just to get GOP voters to the polls, so that the Democrat’s final count isn’t so juiced.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:41 pmLOL! The Democrats have had a mortal lock on California since 1992, long before DJT appeared on the political scene.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:47 pmIf I lived in a competitive state, that might be true. But given California’s registration numbers (as of October 3, 2023), it is pointless:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:53 pmLOL! The Democrats have had a mortal lock on California since 1992, long before DJT appeared on the political scene.
That’s news to Pete Wilson and Arnold.
In 1994, the GOP won the Governorship, SecState, Treasurer, AG and Insurance Commissioner, and a 41-39 majority in the State Assembly.
Some lock.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:58 pmRip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 2:53 pm
In almost every election, the Democrats don’t make their numbers, particularly on initiatives, which matter.
But you forgot the most important registration number: Registered but did not vote. I have no sympathy for anyone who refuses to vote. If the GOP got 10% more to the polls and split the NPP folks, they’d have a solid chance — and they’d certainly not be subject to a 13% state income tax..
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 3:03 pmClinton was held in civil contempt for giving “false, misleading and evasive answers that were designed to obstruct the judicial process.” As President, he could not have been charged with criminal contempt (or any other crime, per DOJ policy.)
Clinton was acquitted by the Senate of the grand jury perjury impeachment article; an impeachment article charging perjury in the Paula Jones case was rejected by the full House 205-229.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 3:06 pmYeah, nearly 30 years ago. LOL!
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 3:09 pm@Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)
There’s a new polling outfit that did really well in 2020 (first time??):
@RONPolling (note, not affiliated with DeSantis)
Some recent pollings…
South Carolina:
https://twitter.com/RONPolling/status/1728602144725520777?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Florida:
https://twitter.com/RONPolling/status/1728875008364257376?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
National GOP:
https://twitter.com/RONPolling/status/1729176070367346823?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Based on public responses by this twitter account, it seems like it’s a small outfit leverage AI to aggregate the responses.
Their methodologies incorporates all of landline, mobile and online surveys and using AI to identify participants based on random sampling of diverse cross-sections. I can’t tell if they’re using AI to simply aggregate the data or doing “more” help with data distribution, but these are the kinds of things that AI is meant for…
Interesting to see how close this outfit is to other polling sites that are trying to leverage AI.
whembly (5f7596) — 11/27/2023 @ 3:22 pmIf 51 days (now 49) until the Iowa caucuses is an “eternity in politics“, what is 29 years?
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 3:25 pmWe’ll see how they compare to the actual results.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 3:27 pmDo you have a link to their 2020 results?
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/27/2023 @ 4:43 pmA completely static, additive analysis. It totally ignores how it would change the race and how Haley would be seen as having increased momentum. It would destroy DeSantis’ remaining prospects and focus the attention on a two-person race.
But, hey, you’ve found another pessimistic defeatist, so your work is obviously done.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 5:12 pmThis seems like an outlier.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 5:14 pmYeah, nearly 30 years ago. LOL!
You said “since 1992”, a period that contains 1994 and Arnold’s two victories.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 5:15 pmPro-Hamas “protest” shut down the Manhattan Bridge this weekend.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/27/2023 @ 6:01 pmhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/federal-judge-says-pennsylvania-mail-in-ballots-should-still-count-if-dated-incorrectly/ar-AA1kml4c?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=de490202751b47db8e4c40ec59d7b000&e1=61
Federal court overrules state law requiring ballot integrity. Court declares all ballots, including ones without any verifiable markers must be counted. Fraud must be permitted.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/27/2023 @ 6:49 pmMail-in ballots in Pennsylvania without accurate handwritten dates on their exterior envelopes must still be counted if they are received in time, a judge ruled Tuesday, concluding that rejecting such ballots violates federal civil rights law.
Those six little words in bold matter.
nk (bb1548) — 11/27/2023 @ 6:55 pmWhy?
It means you can stuff the ballot box with any ballots you find. No proof required. We see it happening all over and it is directly against Pennsylvania law. But the law doesn’t matter when some wannabe king says so.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/27/2023 @ 7:13 pmWhen the election authority received the ballot is the important date. The determinative date.
Not whatever date the voter wrote down it was. That’s at best an irrelevant technicality, and at worst the door to fraud. Not to mention a form of “literacy test” which is against federal civil rights law.
nk (bb1548) — 11/27/2023 @ 7:55 pmThey only have requested ballots in PA. What “stuffing”?
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/27/2023 @ 8:07 pmKeep up the good work NJ Robb! A lot of reluctant republicans and independents thanks to trumpsters saying the voting is rigged will say if my vote wont count or made useless why bother to vote! Biden wins again as democrats will vote. As for pa. rethugs did a study on how to prevent democrat votes from being counted and signing outside of envelope would knock out a lot more democrat votes!
asset (ef3831) — 11/27/2023 @ 8:59 pmThose six little words in bold matter.
Indeed. What is really the issue is why there needs to be dates on the envelope at all. If they aren’t received in time, or at lease postmarked in time, the date that is written is meaningless.
There are other issues with mail-in ballots, not the least of which is signature verification. A 19th century methodology.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 9:45 pm@640 In az a machine verifies signatures and if match with registration signature is questionable it is looked at by hand. If still questionable voters is contacted before counted and not counted if no contact. Then put into computer that voter has voted so no double voting. Trumpsters had a hell of a time trying to prove fraud because the republicans made it so difficult to prevent as many democrat votes from counting like needing to show birth certificate or passport to register to vote. In texas like az you have to show state issued ID to vote. You can use fishing or hunting license for ID ;but not state issued collage ID because to many democrats would use it to vote. Rethugs would send registered democrats letters that looked like solicitation letter and if you didn’t send it back they would get the state to take you off the voter registration roles. Funny they only had enough to send to democrats. Crosscheck Would get voters off rolls if they had a similar first and last name to someone out of state with felony conviction. They didn’t use middle name or initial as they couldn’t remove enough democrats with similar name as out of state felon.
asset (ef3831) — 11/27/2023 @ 10:40 pmIn az a machine verifies signatures and if match with registration signature is questionable it is looked at by hand.
People’s signatures change markedly over the years. The LA Times ran a long expose of the issues a week before the 2020 election. It’s a VERY clumsy and horribly analog approach which has large numbers of false positives and false negatives. The estimate I saw was that several percent would be mishandled. It was fine when it was just a few old people mailing it in, but when it is most of the votes, there needs to be a better system.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 11:15 pmWhen there are 100,000 questioned ballots in a county, do you really think the bureaucracy will take the time to run each of them down?
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/27/2023 @ 11:19 pm@643 they do by law, thats why az takes so long to count. They have to give those contacted a week to answer and come down to prove it was them who voted. By the way the best the trumpsters could do in 2020 after giving up besieging the homes of elected officials was that some of the ballots had small logo of the printing co. in a corner. and wanted the ballots tossed. They were laughed out of court which was fortunate for republicans as if the votes were not counted several would have lost. For year republican think tanks spend millions of dollars devising ways to prevent democrats from voting and having their votes count like cross check. By the way it was in 2004 democrats were questioning electronic voting machines and wanted paper ballots.
asset (ef3831) — 11/28/2023 @ 1:04 amIn the last election, I received a query after I mailed in my ballot (we’re 100% mail-in) to re-submit my signature. Apparently, it changed enough to trigger the query.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/28/2023 @ 5:24 amThey should put a PIN field on the envelope, using Scantron-like entry. It’d be more secure at minimum.
SamG (5fc6fb) — 11/28/2023 @ 5:39 amAnd no, you can’t stuff ballots when they’re mailed. There’s unique QR codes on each ballot, at least in CA.
Ensuring the actual voter is the important part. Hence my statement about adding a PIN above.
SamG (70a552) — 11/28/2023 @ 5:44 amGubernatorial (and other state elections) results are irrelevant to a discussion of presidential elections. The Democrats have had a mortal lock on California’s electoral votes since 1992. And based on their voter registration numbers, they will continue to do so.
Rip Murdock (18d6fd) — 11/28/2023 @ 6:02 amRip,
1. You support Christie for President but his position on abortion is pretty close to Haley’s: he does not support a federal ban and believes it should be left to the states. Why should it matter for Haley but not for Christie?
2. If you live in California, why do you care what South Carolina decides about its confederate flag policy? In the end, was it better for the flag to come down or for her to remain “consistent”?
3. Isn’t considering a Trump pardon different from promising a pardon? If we get to that extraordinary decision, Trump will have had to lose the primary, get convicted, and a Republican would need to have been elected. Chris Christie says a pardon would require the convicted to accept responsibility. He doesn’t believe Trump would, but what if Trump did? Are there absolutely no conditions or situation where a pardon or commutation may be appropriate?
4. Your biggest objections with Haley are that she would still “support” Trump if he was the nominee and was convicted of a felony…and that she has not more forcefully argued against his fitness. Do the polls suggest that she would become less or more competitive in the primary by following your advice? Is it better to be pure or electorally viable in the case that Trump support collapses?
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/28/2023 @ 8:08 amHaley is fine with putting in a Federal abortion ban if it passed.
SamG (afe91c) — 11/28/2023 @ 8:35 am1. My point is Haley’s hypocrisy, her willingness to fold (aka pandering) when her position is challenged. For example:
2. Haley was all in favor the Confederate flag (and the right of succession) when it was to her benefit to get elected governor (twice).
3. She agreed to consider a pardon for Trump, which doesn’t require a conviction (see the Nixon pardon). Considering a pardon for Trump is the same as condoning his actions on January 6th and retention classified documents.
4. Chasing Trump voters is a fool’s errand, especially for her. MAGAWorld views her as war monger, based both on her positions and her service as a Boeing board member (as well as a lot of other reasons). As Chris Christie has suggested, if DeSantis, Christie, and Haley all spoke with one voice and forcefully condemned Trump for his attacks on the judiciary, private citizens, praise of dictatorships, authoritarian policy proposals, criminal behavior, etc. Trump would fold like a cheap suit. But DeSantis and Haley want to keep their options open. Where are anti-Trump attack ads?
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/28/2023 @ 9:25 amBill Clinton deliberately settled the Paula Jones case, even though he had a good legal defense (she sued on the wrong grounds) in order so he should not be indicted for perjury because DOJ generally doesn’t indict for perjury in cases where the side the perjured witness was on lost.
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/28/2023 @ 9:29 amIt is not that the Democratic Party is so strong in California, although it has piled up a lot in voter registrations and tries to
“bank” votes in advance; it is that the Republican Party is so weak. Poison.
If Donald Trump repeatedly polls in California in third place, a different outcome is possible with the right candidate. But is there one?
Sammy Finkelman (f1a67c) — 11/28/2023 @ 9:37 amBoth can be true.
In the primary or general? Right now Trump is crushing it in California Republican primary polling with 59%, +48 over DeSantis and +51 over Haley. Under the primary delegate allocation rules, any candidate who receives 50% or more of the vote receives all 169 delegates, or nearly 20% of all delegates selected on Super Tuesday.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:17 amHaley is fine with putting in a Federal abortion ban if it passed.
FIFY
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:40 amThey should put a PIN field on the envelope, using Scantron-like entry. It’d be more secure at minimum.
Or both the challenge and response from an authenticator app.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:42 amGubernatorial (and other state elections) results are irrelevant to a discussion of presidential elections.
Put those goalposts down, Rip.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:43 amRIP soul and funk singer Jean Knight (80). Biggest hit was Mr. Big Stuff, which reached No. 1 on Billboard’s R&B chart and No. 2 on Billboard’s Top 200.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:43 amChris Christie says a pardon would require the convicted to accept responsibility
Nixon never did.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:44 amStop moving the goal posts. How do you explain the Democratic presidential victories in California when the state had Republican governors.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:45 amAnd Christie was wrong when he said a pardon required a conviction.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:46 amYour biggest objections with Haley are that she would still “support” Trump if he was the nominee and was convicted of a felony…and that she has not more forcefully argued against his fitness.
That’s not even meaningful. Not only is this a scenario she is fighting mightily against, but “support” means many things, including “not actively campaigning for the Democrat.” As in “W” supported Trump in 2020 (but may not have voted for him).
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:46 amAnd Christie was wrong when he said a pardon required a conviction.
Good point. Again, Nixon.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:47 amRip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:17 am
If the 2024 election was Biden vs Trump vs a reasonably-qualified centrist, Trump would come in third in CA. Biden might come in second. CA Democrats I talked to are very unhappy with the prospect of Biden’s 2nd term.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:50 amChasing Trump voters is a fool’s errand
She only needs some of them for the nomination. She will get all of the rest who vote in the general. Some may stay home, of course, but those that vote are not going to choose Biden.
Kevin M (ed969f) — 11/28/2023 @ 10:52 amIf…..might….
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/28/2023 @ 11:14 amGeorge Santos is in elite company, having his own <a href="https://www.washingtonian.com/2023/11/28/a-george-santos-balloon-is-flopping-around-on-the-national-mall/”>balloon, but I still like Trump’s more.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/28/2023 @ 11:21 amCrap.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 11/28/2023 @ 11:22 amSantos
Trump
Chris Christie on Morning Joe:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/28/2023 @ 11:25 am@651,
1. Why does the democratic will of the people bother you? Why would a politician push for a policy that she does not have the votes to sustain? It seems to me that’s what she’s saying. If she has the votes to do a 6-week ban, then she would do it. If not, then not. Isn’t it up to the people of South Carolina what they want for abortion policy and shouldn’t the majority win?
2. Just as popular opinion on gay marriage swung after Obergefell, it appears opinion in South Carolina shifted after the Charleston church massacre. Again, you seem to value a politician always maintaining a position even when attitudes change…including possibly her own. Though I have general sympathies about renaming military bases and trying to diminish the contributions of important historical figures because of new moral sensibilities, I think what is or isn’t flown on public property is up to the people of that state.
3. “Considering a pardon for Trump is the same as condoning his actions on January 6th and retention classified documents”. I think that’s laughably false. First, “considering” is different from “promising”. When I hear consider, I hear someone who will take multiple factors into account…including how the pardon might impact attitudes about the justice system, how it might aggravate political divisions, how it might distract from an agenda, and what would be the unknowable response of Mr. Trump. Being doctrinaire seems to be a characteristic of a permanent political minority where politics becomes an exercise in purity.
4. It’s more complicated than that. Again, you quote Christie despite the fact that the polls you use say the opposite. If Haley joined Christie in his unapologetic criticism of Trump, she too would still be in single digits with negatives that make him no longer relevant. At the end of the day, somebody will challenge Trump one on one. DeSantis or Haley is what is left. For me, DeSantis is wrong on Ukraine and has a likability problem. That leaves Haley. Maybe she will not attract enough of Trump’s support, that’s why we vote.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/28/2023 @ 12:05 pmAJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 11/28/2023 @ 12:05 pm
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/28/2023 @ 12:46 pmRIP Charlie Munger (99). Billionaire investor, partner, philanthropist, and life long friend of Warren Buffett. Also co-founded Munger Tolles & Olson LLP.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/28/2023 @ 1:41 pm