[guest post by Dana]
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Let’s check in with the two major political parties and see what’s up these days.
We’ll start with the Democrats and President Joe Biden. Unfortunately, his approval ratings continue to go south:
The president’s approval rating sank to a new low of just 38%, with 53% disapproving. Biden’s -15% net approval rating is measurably worse than his -9% approval in the CNBC December survey. What’s more, his approval rating on the economy dropped for a fourth straight survey to just 35%, with 60% disapproving, putting the president a deep 25 points underwater.
The president also saw double-digit declines, on a year-over-year basis, in economic approval among key constituencies who helped to put him in office: women aged 18-49, people of color and young Americans aged 18-35.
The president’s handling of the war in Ukraine barely fares better with 40% approving and 49% disapproving. His new proposal to tax unrealized gains splits the country in half with 43% in favor and exactly as many opposed to the measure.
The report points out that inflation is a problem for Biden from both sides of the aisle:
Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research and the Democratic pollster for the survey, said the problem for Biden is that the inflation issue is bipartisan.
“Cost of living has just blown everything else, including Covid, out of the water. And part of the reason for that is, there are attitudes about the economy that are largely a partisan phenomenon,″ he said. “That is not the case with inflation, or at least not right now. It is the top issue for Democrats, independents and Republicans.”
And the latest Gallup poll isn’t much better. Surprisingly, he’s lost the support of young people:
Joe Biden’s recent job approval ratings, which are averaging 14 points lower than those early in his presidency, have declined far more among younger than older generations of Americans. In fact, Biden’s job approval has changed relatively little among baby boomers and not at all among traditionalists. As a result, older Americans are now more likely to approve of the president than younger Americans are…
During Biden’s honeymoon period, 60% of both Generation Z adults and millennials approved of the job he was doing, putting these groups above the national average approval rating. His support was below the national average among baby boomers (53%) and, especially, traditionalists (48%) early in his presidency.
By the summer, as coronavirus cases unexpectedly rose, Biden had lost significant support among Generation Z, millennials and Generation X, ranging from seven- to 10-percentage-point drops. But his approval rating held steady among baby boomers and traditionalists.
All generational groups have become less approving of Biden since the summer, after the troubled U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in late August 2021, with the exception of traditionalists, whose approval has not changed.
On the Republican side, Trump still appears to have the GOP in his grip. These days, while coy about whether he’s going to run in 2024, he wants you to know all about his, um, honesty:
At a rally in Selma, NC on Saturday the former president defended himself from the multiple investigations probing his tax affairs and his attempts to overturn the 2020 election.
“‘You know, you’ve been investigated years and years, millions and millions of pages of documents, they found nothing,’” Mr. Trump said, supposedly quoting private remarks from a friend. “‘You are the cleanest on Earth when you think about it.’”
He continued: “I think I’m the most honest human being, perhaps, that God ever created.” As laughter broke out from his supporters, Mr. Trump added: “Perhaps.”
This is funny because at the same rally, he said:
“The presidential election was rigged and stolen.”
“The truth is,” Trump said, “I ran twice. I won twice.”
Given President Biden’s poor showing these days, the Republicans look to have a good shot at taking the House, and possibly the Senate in the midterms. Who knows about the presidential election in 2024, but if the GOP is hoping to see a Republican in the Oval Office, Mitch McConnell might want to consider what the real problem is, and actually do something about it.