New Pennsylvania Poll Reassuring for Hillary
How reassuring? Mmmm…somewhat. The lede tells you it’s +6 worth of reassurance. But read further and it’s really more like +4 or +5. Good enough:
A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a 6-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters, who also expressed some concerns about potential violence as the tense and tumultuous election draws to a close.
The results are similar to a poll conducted two weeks earlier, indicating little to no shift in public opinion after the recent FBI announcement that it was reviewing a new set of emails linked to Clinton, said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
The statewide survey — conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 4 with 405 likely Pennsylvania voters and with a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points — shows Clinton with support from 48 percent and Trump with the backing of 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
When third-party candidates are included, Clinton’s lead narrows to 4 points. She drew 44 percent, with Trump at 40 percent, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 7 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.
Both Johnson and Stein will be on the ballot, suggesting that +4 might be closer to the truth. That said, voters tend to get more serious when they actually get in the voting booth, and people who initially said they were for third-party candidates often change their mind and vote for one of the major-party candidates when the rubber hits the road. So we may be looking at +5 for Clinton here.
Muhlenberg has an A rating from 538, by the way, and is typically biased in favor of the Republican by about half a point. So this is not pro-Democrat hackery.
Trump could conceivably win without Pennsylvania, but it’s a rough, rough road. (So rough!) He’ll need Ohio, which is realistic. He’ll need Florida, which he could do. But good luck winning Virginia. And while things are looking good for him in North Carolina, Georgia, and Iowa, it’s looking very tough for him in Wisconsin and Colorado, among other places.
Overall, not a good sign for the Trumpster.
[Cross-posted at RedState.]
these polls are no good I think Mr. Trump’s in the catbird seat for sure
happyfeet (28a91b) — 11/5/2016 @ 2:57 pmTime for Trump to play his trump card. 🙂
Andrew (b13706) — 11/5/2016 @ 4:07 pmOr the “toss-ups” on the RCP map, Trump needs AZ, IA, GA and OH and FL or he probably loses no matter what. After that NC, NV & NH give him a tie, and ME2 gives him a win. CO, MI, ME or PA would be nice and make it a lot easier, but he doesn’t need them.
He probably has AZ, IA, GA and OH in the bag, but FL is going to be a problem with early voting (again, why do we allow people to vote with incomplete information?) Trump is even in NC & NH and leads at the moment in NV (but, again early voting).
Then there is turnout and GOTV, which Hillary will spend $100 million on Tuesday and Trump will spend $0. Yes, there are probably more self-motivated Trump supporters, but still…
Kevin M (25bbee) — 11/5/2016 @ 4:10 pm*On the toss-ups…
Kevin M (25bbee) — 11/5/2016 @ 4:10 pmImproving closing polls for Toomey are a good sign. Ayotte, Blunt, Burr, Heck and Young are all up with Johnson closing well. Kirk will lose but he’s the only one gone for sure. The House is safe and it looks like no net losses for governors.
It could have been somewhat better and would have been had there been a Republican candidate for President.
Rick Ballard (bca473) — 11/5/2016 @ 4:11 pmGOTV will be everything. Are the Republicans as downbeat as the Dems? Or are they pissed off enough to vote for the jackass anyway.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 11/5/2016 @ 4:35 pmand while you’re looking over there, you should examine the general milieu,
https://twitter.com/alimhaider/status/794750870776938496
narciso (d1f714) — 11/5/2016 @ 4:53 pmYes, Mr. Feet: those polls are based on voters. You know?
Simon Jester (c63397) — 11/5/2016 @ 5:02 pmthe crosstabs are murkier than with the prri poll, why is that,
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/PA-Pres_MidOct_Report.pdf
narciso (d1f714) — 11/5/2016 @ 5:03 pmyes yes i know
happyfeet (28a91b) — 11/5/2016 @ 5:25 pmSo…you are contributing to the problem you say we face?
LOL
Simon Jester (c63397) — 11/5/2016 @ 5:27 pmi’m pretty awesome
you forget that sometimes
happyfeet (28a91b) — 11/5/2016 @ 5:29 pmthis is why one has trust issues,
http://heatst.com/politics/presidential-pollsters-political-contributions-heavily-for-hillary-clinton/
narciso (d1f714) — 11/5/2016 @ 5:40 pmis this your card,
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/03/fishbowl-politics-reduces-donald-trump-polling-support/
narciso (d1f714) — 11/5/2016 @ 5:45 pmYou and the rest of the world have completely different definitions of “awesome”. By not voting for Trump, you are functionally equivalent to a NeverTrumper.
Chuck Bartowski (211c17) — 11/5/2016 @ 6:17 pmno that is pooper
just don’t
happyfeet (28a91b) — 11/5/2016 @ 6:51 pmDJT has to sweep all seaboard states from NC all the way around to Texas. Then, he has to grab OH, NH and NV. And IA and AZ. If the above happens and McMullin takes UT, it goes to the House. If he somehow won CO, Nevada and UT are not necessary.
If any of the above go HRC, along with PA, it is over.
If DJT takes PA, he wins.
Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 11/6/2016 @ 1:29 amThe Pennsylvania vote may be as tough to predict as any because its a microcosm of many of the unique features of this election — many this election is going to be very difficult to project using historical turnout models to build the polling model.
PA often turns on the turnout numbers of the collar counties around Philly, and the turnout numbers of African-Americans in Philly. Clinton is likely to do very very well with the suburban college educated white voters in the collar counties, minority voting numbers in Philly are usually the result of ground-game efforts. This is where the famous phrase “walking around” money got its start — basically paying for transportation, cigarettes, etc., in order to convince voters to get to the polls and vote.
More industrial and rural central and western PA have become much more friendly to the GOP in recent election cycles, and Trump’s nationalism and populism hits a bullseye with those voters in this election.
So, expect Clinton to do better than Obama in white surburban areas of Eastern PA, Trump to do better — maybe much much better — with white working class voters in central and western PA, and then it will come down to the get-out-the-vote efforts in the urban cores of Eastern PA.
Can Clinton’s team do that as effectively as Obama did in 2008 and 2012. I have my doubts.
Philly County 2008: 596,000 votes for Obama, 117,000 for McCain – a firewall of 480,000 votes.
Obama wins the state by 600,000 votes total, 54-44%
Philly County 2012: 557,000 votes for Obama, 91,000 for Romney — a firewall of 450,000 votes.
Obmaa wins the state by only 300,000 votes, 52-47%.
Consider Philly County in 2004: 542,000 votes for Kerry, 130,000 votes for Bush — a firewall of 410,000 votes. Kerry wins by 140,000 votes, 51-48%.
In 2008, Obama turned out 10% more votes in Philly County than did Kerry four years earlier. But in 2012, that vote total slipped back to almost the same as Kerry.
Does Clinton over-perform or under-perform Philly County in 2012?
Now lets look at 4 counties from Central and Western PA that are more sparsely populated, but are representative of more friendly GOP territory over the past 4-6 election cycles. Beaver, Cambria, Westmoreland, and York Counties:
Beaver: Obama 37,000, Romeny 42,000
Cambria: Obama 23,000, Romeny 33,000
Westmoreland: Obama 63,000, Romeny 103,000
York: Obama 72,000, Romney 111,000
Those 4 counties — East/Central, Central, Southwest, and Western PA — combine to give Romeny an advantage of about 100,000 votes.
Now look at how George Bush did in those counties 8 years ago:
Beaver: Kerry 42,000, Bush 40,000
Cambria: Kerry 32,500, Bush 34,000
Westmoreland: Kerry 78,000, Bush 100,000
York: Kerry 64,000, Bush 114,000
Those 4 counties gave Bush a margin of only about 75,000 votes. But they are emblematic of about 25 other similar PA counties in Central and Western PA.
Romney’s margin increased 33% over what Bush got 8 years earlier.
So, what is the turnout margins this year in these two elements of PA politics? This is where the “enthusiasm” gap may shift a result to be contrary to the polls.
The WaPo daily email blast has a story this morning about a lack of enthusiasm being expressed by African American voters in North Carolina, who haven’t been willing to stand in line to vote during early voting, and have gone home instead. Will they stand in line on election day? Big question.
How does not having the first African-American President on the ballot play itself out in raw vote totals of African Americans in states where turnout of that slice of the electorate can tip the election. Do higher numbers of motivated Hispanic voters make up for that shortfall?
shipwreckedcrew (56b591) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:06 amTrump doesn’t need to carry Pennsylvania.
The map in the New York Daily News of Wednesday, November 3, 2016 had Hillary with 168 Electoral votes (that included Pennsylvania) and Trump with 157. The map has two mistakes. New Hampshire is labeled 10 instead of 4, and the tossups are given a total of 123 instead of 113 (which you need to make the math work – New Hampshire as a tossup.
The map labeled Ohio (18) Florida (29) Iowa (6) North Carolina (13) as well as Utah (6) Georgia (16) and Arizona )11) and one district in Maine and one in Nebraska (out of 5) as tossups.
The total for Hillary includes 3 of Maine’s 4 and nothing from Nebraska, and includes the lost Electoral vote in the state of Washington.
Georgia and Arizona aren’t really close – Hillary would be avery longshot to carry Utah and I don’t know wheer McMullin stands now.
In the meantime…
Trump sees a chance in Michigan (16) and Hillary is worried about it. It has a ot of ex-autoworkers who believe hey have bene hurt by trade. It has immigranst buut mostly from the Middle easat, and many of tehm non-citizens and they have different issues than Hispanics. Very few people have voted in Michigan and Michigan is also one of those states in which a person can change his early vote, and the trump has made a big push to get people to change their early vote. It is maybe aboput the only pace he has any kind of aground game.
Wisconsin is also a state where the early vote an be chaned (a vote can be changed 3 times) andso is Pennsylvania (20).
Minnesota (10) also was but the deadline for re-calling an early vote was November 1.
In national polls, Hillary is slightly ahead, and the best guess would be Hillary Clinton getting 300 to 313 Electoral votes, including Florida.
If Trump carries Ohio (very likely) Iowa (also likely) and Florida, and either North Carolina or Virginia but not both, (as well as Georgia and Arizona and Omaha, Nebraska and the second district of Maine) and illary does not get Utah, and also loses the elector in the state of Washington, Hillary would have a potential of 277 to 279. If Trump carries Michigan, she’s down to 263 at most. It is 261 if she carries Virginia and loses North Carolina.
Colorado (9) is in the Democratic column but could be lost.
The New York Daily News map that had Hillary at 268 would have Hillary at 258 if she carried Nevada but lost Michigan and carried no other tossups and got all 12 of Washington State’s electors.
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:10 amTo stop Hillary, Trump has to win Ohio (18) Florida (29) and probably North Carolina (13), and one surprise state, either Michigan (16) or Colorado (9) or else run the table with New Hampshire (4) Iowa (6) and Nevada (6) and also Utah (6) must go either to him or McMullin.
He can afford to lose all three of the last if he carries Michigan (and North Carolina)
New Hampshire and Iowa are probably so close because the people there get exposed to all srts of presidential candidates and vote differently in the general election than the demographics maybe might say.
If Trumo gets Iowa he can afford to substitute Virginia for North Carolina.
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:15 amMr. Trump’s gonna win all 50 states cause he has the momentum and enthusiasm
all piggy has is a handful of warm poop, sleazy Goldman Sachs, and a nasty husband who rapes rapes rapes
happyfeet (28a91b) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:20 amThe black vote is coming in at under the levels in 2012 (which has Obama lecturing people which is actually annoying them) but the Hispanic vote is coming in at about 137% of what it was in 2012.
This vote – or the increase in the vote is probably 90% for Hillary. But the newly registered Hispanics may not have registered Democrat so often and also may not vote for the Senate or House. Looking at early voting by party may be misleading in Nevada and Florida and any place there are newly registered Hispanics.
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:23 amI’ll just say that we don’t know how many people are going to vote for Trump who will not say so to a pollster.
The most I am saying to other than very close friends is that election day should be a day of mourning for all.
Too many people I know, even Bible-believing Christian folk, believe the lie that repubs are evil people who want children to go to bed hungry.
It is national adoption month, however, and numerous families in our congregation who have adopted spoke about it today.
And there were a few folks passing out pro-life voter info after church, pointing out how many don’t even get the chance to be adopted.
I am saddened that ever since Obama came along, while it is generally safe to discuss religion at our church,
politics not so much.
Among many, a person denying the divinity of Christ would be treated with more respect than one who admitted not voting Democrat.
strong delusions galore.
MD in Philly (f9371b) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:26 am21. happyfeet (28a91b) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:20 am
Now why do you say that?
I think, however the results come in, the Clintons’ political career won’t end until they are oth dsgraced, and people in both parties, will speak of them, instead of Nixon, whenever they want to discuss the possibility of a president who might abuse power.
But whether that can happen with Hillary losing is another question.
So if God wants to destroy them she might need to win the election.
Maybe it can be a deadlock and that will give the FBI and others enough time.
I think our long national nightmare will begin if Hillary Clinton is elected.
Newt Gingrich thought that if Trump is elected we would see something like Wisconsin, but taht is unlikely unless it looks like efforts to cut off money to “sanctuary states” weere going somewhere.
I do think suspension of DACA could cause mass demonstrations and Democratic political activity.
In the meantime some Dem members of Congress wants FBI agents investigated for leaking to Giuliani.
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:34 amthere’s a huge difference between an american gentleman like Mr. Trump and an ivy league trashpig Mr. F
and thank heavens for that
happyfeet (28a91b) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:36 amMr. Feet, re #21:
Would you care to make a small bet that you are very, very wrong?
Such as, if you lose, you have to write like a normal person for six months?
Now, if you are truly sure instead of just blowing smoke….
But you won’t take the bet, of course.
Simon Jester (c63397) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:41 amno cause i’m afraid the pig might could rig ti
happyfeet (28a91b) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:42 am*it* i mean
happyfeet (28a91b) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:42 amit’s so good to beat that pig everyone wants to savor the feeling
happyfeet (28a91b) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:43 am23. MD in Philly (f9371b) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:26 am
It’s not just that.
The percentage of people who answer polls has gotten down to something like 8% or less because of the all telemarketing and fraudulant calls, and the use of cell phones so it’s a question of extrapolating from the people who answer to the people who don’t.
That’s an art and they also overcorrect between one election and the next.
But it’s easier to answer anonymously to a pollster. But many poeple may not trust that (to not be saved for he long run or given to any organization), and that demographic (people who don’t trust pollsters) leans heavily Republican. But they attempt to correct for it of course.
Public national surveys get about 400 to 500 voters per poll, network news gets 1,000, and campaigns get 3.000 and divide them into smaller group, like young Cubans and older Cubans.
Hillary is worried about Michigan and New Hampshire. A little bit about ennsylvania, but Pnnsylvania is like Charlie Brown’s football to he Republicans. They pay people actually ti knock on doors at 11 am and 4:30 pm in heavily Dem districts to drive turnout.
The Clinton campaign has made a big ad buy on CBS and NBC tomorrow night. A 2-minute ad. They were still writing it, but it’s apparently going to be all positive and nonsense.
It might turn people off who are aware of scandals in the news.
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:47 amshipwreckedcrew @18 Pennsylvania is such a heavily Democratic state, that the deviation from the national mean in this state in this election would probably not be enough to have anyone else besides Hillary Clinton carry it. It can give Trump Ohio, and maybe Michigan. Indiana will go heavily for Trump and Evan Bayh will probably lose.
We can expect recounts in up to 6 states.
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/6/2016 @ 12:02 pm3. Kevin M (25bbee) — 11/5/2016 @ 4:10 pm
Doesn’t he actually need NC no matter what (unless he replaces it with VA or MI) Maine remainder (3) plus Colorado (9) = 12. Minus Nevada = 6.
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/6/2016 @ 12:07 pmSammy — Nate Silver had an interesting analysis a few days ago commenting on the fact that Hispanic voting trends might only be giving Clinton larger margins in states she’s already set to win, or simply bringing her closer in states she is going to lose, but she will over-perform past Dem candidates.
She can add all the Hispanic votes she wants in Calif and New Mexico, and it doesn’t advance her in the electoral college. And added Hispanic votes in Arizona and Texas aren’t likely to change the outcome this election cycle. Its quite possible that they will carry her to a win in New Mexico and Colorado, but are not necessarily in big enough totals to make a difference in other swing states.
On the other hand, declining vote totals of African American voters can switch the outcome in a few states where their numbers carried Obama in 2008 and 2012. Pennsylvania and Ohio for 2 – Obama had huge totals with African American voters in Philly and Cleveland which Clinton won’t match. In 2008 Virginia swung solidly into the Dem column with big African American turnout in Hampton Roads, Norfolk and other areas in SE Virginia. North Carolina is only close if there is a large African American turnout.
Two states that come into play as tossups with a depressed African American turnout are Michigan and Wisconsin.
Silver’s point was that a split in the popular vote and electoral college vote was easy to envision when you study the raw vote totals this way, and why a 2-3% point national lead for Clinton is nothing close to being a safe win on the electoral college map. An even race nationally likely presages a Trump win.
shipwreckedcrew (56b591) — 11/6/2016 @ 12:15 pmHere’s my map of just the tossups, leaving aside the safe states for each:
Trump: Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, NC, Ohio
Clinton: Nevada, Colorado, Virginia.
To win on this map, Clinton has to win Wisc, Mich, and Penn. Lose any of the three, and Trump goes over 270.
If Trump were to surge and sweep those 3 rust belt states, he could lose Florida and still win.
shipwreckedcrew (56b591) — 11/6/2016 @ 12:21 pmshipwreckedcrew (56b591) — 11/6/2016 @ 12:15 pm
You just said it wouldn’t help her in New Mexico. This is, if you assign New Mexico to Clinton anyway.
Nevada is another state where it could matter, but there are other voters there too as well. It is also significant in Florida and Virginia, but Virginia is being assigned to Clinton. The lower black turnout could be significant in these two states but it is not that much lower. Any attemot to cajole people into voting cold just result in votes cast not the way Democrats want. Hillary Clinton is not Barack Obama.
North Carolina is getting Democratic all the time because of people moving there, both African Americans and college educated whites.
I’d expect Ohio, but Michigan might switch before Pennsylvania.
Both are basically Election Day states. Michigan had some absentee voting but a person could alter their vote and the Trump campaign made a big push for that, at least in the media.
Wisconsin is always close, but has a danger of vote stealing.
Obama carried both states in 2008, but only Virginia in 2012. So that’s why they assign Virginia to Clinton and make North Carolina a tossup. Obama also (barely) carried Indiana in 2008 (because of the area SE of Chicago) but not in 2012. And he also got the area around Omaha, Nebraska, for 1 Electoral vote, in 2008. There are other categpries of voters in Virginia to think about.
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/6/2016 @ 12:54 pmIn this election, as many as 8% or 95 or 10% are saying they will vote for third parties. I wish it was more. This really makes projection difficult.
shipwreckedcrew
That could mainly be because of the big margin in California and some non-competitive blue states. Ghat was the case in the year 2000. If this happens, Hillary Clinton can be expected to try to get some Republican electors to support her, although they are more likely to support Johnson or McMullin or Pence.
Here’s what I read about vote distribution:
Deocratic votes are concentarted in high density places. This has gotten stronger with time. The average Republican Congressional district now has one quarter of the population density of the
average Republican Congressional district in 1950 (I’m not sure if they are using the Congress elected in 1948 or the one in 1950 but both were majority Dem. They are probably using the Census of 1950.)
The county with the highest Dem. percentage of the presidential vote is not high density, though. It’s an Indiana reservation in South Dakota. It beat out Washington, D.C. and the Bronx.
The highest Rep. presidential vote is in exremely low population and density King County, Texas. It;s poplation in the 2010 census, was 286. Obama won five votes there in 2012.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vy6fYNiozJ4
High density places are growing in population. This may be in part because banks are smaller in smaller places and small banks have difficultly making loans, in part de to Dodd Frank.
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/6/2016 @ 1:05 pmhttp://www.sltrib.com/news/4549164-155/analysis-how-utah-for-the-first
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/donald-trump-evan-mcmullin-utah-poll/
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/6/2016 @ 1:19 pm