Patterico's Pontifications

8/23/2007

Another Novak Anecdote — The Man Who Gave Us Nixon

Filed under: Politics — WLS @ 3:00 pm



[Posted by WLS] 

Novak tells the story of a man by the name of Theordore White (?), who had organized a grass-roots nationwide campaign of young committed conservatives in advance of Goldwater’s run in 1964.    White’s group had done a lot of organizational work in early primary states that came to fruition when Rockefeller’s campaign fell apart following his sudden divorce and remarriage.

But, after Goldwater had secured the nomination, he marginalized White and his group during the general election campaign, installing into his top campaign slots many members of his “Arizona Mafia” who lacked any experience running a national campaign.  White grew disillusioned with the campaign as it unfolded, and withdrew from national politics.

 But, early in 1968, Novak made contact with White again, and White described for him the playbook he had scripted for securing the 1968 GOP nomination for  —- Ronald Reagan.

Reagan successfully ran for Gov. of California in 1966, following Nixon’s crushing loss in 1962.  But Reagan and his advisers believed that the California electorate would not stand for him overtly considering a run for the WH as the conservative candidate in 1968, having served only 2 years of his first term.  

Once again, as he had done in 1963 for Goldwater, White went about creating a plan for Reagan to gain the nomination by stealth.

Although there was widespread dissatisfaction with Nixon as the potential nominee in 1968, Nixon had done much of the nuts&bolts of building political loyalty in the 1966 election cycle, which produced large GOP gains against an unpopular LBJ.  Nixon thought he had all the necessary delegates firmly in his pocket before any primary vote was cast.

But, White had been cultivating delegate support for Reagan quietly in the South and West.  What he secured was a decision by the California delegation to nominate Reagan as a “favorite son” candidate at the Miami Convention.  What White planned was for that event to trigger a large enough delegate switch among Southern and Western delegates to deny Nixon the nomination on the first ballot.  White had received assurances from many delegates pledged to Nixon that if he did not gain the nomination on the first ballot, they would switch to Reagan on the second ballot, and Reagan would be nominated overwhelmingly.

White explained his plan to Novak in the summer of 1968, and as the convention approached, Reagan made no overt gestures towards seeking the nomination.  But, the first phase of the plan happened as White had described, with the California delegation determining that it would nominate Reagan as a “favorite son”.   The next step in White’s plan was to deny Nixon the nomination on the first ballot.

Reagan went to Miami several days before the convention, and appeared on Face The Nation where Novak was one of the panelists.  When Novak asked him whether, given what appeared to be a staff working to secure him votes in other delegations beyond California, he was truly a candidate in 1968 notwithstanding his repeated denials.   For the first time publicly, Reagan equivocated on his answer. 

He said, in essence, that once the California delegation placed him name in nomination on the floor of the convention, it was up to the delegates of other states to judge for themselves whether he was the best nominee to be the GOP candidate for President.  He could not stop them, and he would not withdraw his name if nominated.   Now Reagan was a candidate.

So, White had to deny Nixon the nomination on the first ballot, and for the necessary votes, he went South. 

The delegations from the South were not wild about Nixon, and were practically in a panic over Nixon ruminations about possible running mates in which he was mentioning NE liberals like John Lindsay and Rockefeller. 

White thought he secured the votes necessary with a tentative committment from delegate rich Florida, which had a “winner take all” rule.  If Florida went for Reagan or anyone else on the first ballot, Nixon would not garner enough votes.

But, in the dead of night, the day before the nomination was to be decided, one man from the South stopped White’s plan dead in its tracks — Strom Thurmond.

 Thurmond was publicly committed to Nixon.  Thurmond had bolted the Democrat party in 1964 to join the GOP, and he was afraid that his reputation in his new party would take a hit if he were to bolt from Nixon for Reagan in what was certain to be a divisive convention if Nixon failed to get the nomination on the first ballot.  Thurmond worked the Southern delegations on Nixon’s behalf, and held them together sufficient for Nixon to gain enough delegate votes to secure the nomination.

What did Thurmond get from the arrangement? It might be too strong to say Nixon gave Thurmond veto power over the VP selection, but Thurmond certainly influenced Nixon’s decision to not select a NE liberal as his VP.  Instead, as Novak describes it, a bunch of Nixon aids in the middle of the night, and with no meaningful opportunity to vet him, selected Maryland Gov. Spiro Agnew. 

 So, Strom Thurmond gave us Nixon and Agnew in 1968 instead of Ronald Reagan.

Reagan would have beaten Humphrey by even larger margins than Nixon did, and there would have never been a Watergate.

Thanks Strom.     

15 Responses to “Another Novak Anecdote — The Man Who Gave Us Nixon”

  1. This is a great anecdote and I like playing ‘what if’ but I have grave doubts that Reagan could have beaten Humphrey. My recollection is that voters still believed presidents needed seasoning and experience beyond what Reagan would have had at that time. Maybe Reagan could have won in later years … or maybe we never would have had a Reagan Revolution at all.

    I’m more intrigued by whether Goldwater might have won if White had remained on board, or whether Nixon would have selected someone other than Agnew to run as his VP if Reagan had not thrown his favorite son hat in the ring. If this story is true, Strom not only helped make Nixon President but also Gerald Ford.

    DRJ (bfe07e)

  2. You have to remember that the vote in ’68 was a 3-way split, and that Nixon only got a plurality of the popular vote. Humphrey carried the LBJ baggage, and the image of Chicago didn’t help any. It is quite likely that RR could have prevailed – it would have been interesting to see who his Veep selection would have been.
    Woulda, coulda, shoulda…

    Another Drew (8018ee)

  3. Reagan wasn’t perfect RE: the middle east, but he beat down the Soviets in the 80’s, and that saved tens of millions of lives.

    Sounds hyperbolic, but the Soviets were doing a lot of awful things. Their belicose imperialism probably spawned al qaeda, by the way.

    So I’d take Reagan in the 80s over missing Watergate. Then again, perhaps Reagan would have won Vietnam? I kinda doubt that, but who knows?

    Dustin (aba75b)

  4. Theordore White (?),

    Clifford White

    expat (2eb53c)

  5. Thanks expat — I didn’t have the book in front of me, and went with my best recollection which I had a bad feeling was wrong.

    wls (aad074)

  6. Ronald Reagan in 1968 wasn’t the Ronald Reagan of 1980. From that point, he served 6 more years as governor, then built himself a huge following in the Repulican party (which he only joined in the early 60s) and from his radio show. To say that he could have beated Humphrey – a sitting VP – more handily than Nixon, who had a lot more loyalists and a deeper support structure (although a lot higher negatives as well) – is pretty speculative.

    I will accept that the Agnew debacle would have been avoided. But, I don’t accept that suffering thru Watergate is a fate worse than the risk of a Humphrey Presidency would have been.

    headhunt23 (9e1243)

  7. Humphrey represented a very unpopular administration of a party that was deeply fractured by the 1968 convention. Wallace cut deeply into Humphrey’s support among Southern Democrats.

    Nixon was not a popular figure either nationally or in his own party. Yet he rolled up a 110 electoral vote victory.

    Reagan was not the beloved Grand Old Man of the party in 1968 — but he would have been much more dynamic as a politician than he was 12 years later in 1980, since he was only 57 years old in 1968.

    The fact that he won the Calif. Gov. election in 1966 in a landslide over the incumbent Pat Brown is all the evidence you need of his abilities as a politician. He beat Brown 57-42%, with the margin being 1 million votes out of only 6.5 million cast.

    WLS (077d0d)

  8. Reagan only won his 1970 race 53%-45% though…

    alphie (015011)

  9. Here’s what Wikipedia has:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_gubernatorial_election,_1966

    California gubernatorial election, 1966

    November 8, 1966

    Candidate Party Votes % Counties Carried
    Ronald Reagan Republican 3,742,913 57.6 55
    Pat Brown(i) Democratic 2,749,174 42.3 3
    Others 11,358 0.2 –
    6,503,445

    Reagan won about 52 percent of the Bay Area vote, winning Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano and Sonoma counties.

    WLS (077d0d)

  10. Alphie — my mistake, you referenced the 1970 re-election.

    Sorry.

    WLS (077d0d)

  11. No problem, WLS.

    I think we can all agree that by 1980, Reagan was perfectly positioned to win the presidency.

    Before then, who knows?

    He may have even lost to Carter in 1976 had he won the Republican nomination.

    alphie (015011)

  12. Not necessarily. People were disenchanted with the choice between Ford and Carter. As my older brother put it during the 1976 campaign, “You get a dummy either way!”

    Paul (f54101)

  13. Boldly picking nits, I say the man’s real name was :

    F. Clifton White

    Don’t know what the F. stands for though

    Gregory Koster (5d5907)

  14. I finished the book yesterday and thought it was one of the most interesting biographies I have read. Novak’s treatment by the liberals as well as the conservatives is regrettable. He seems to be one of the few journalists that tries to write without too much slant. Probably one of the last of his kind unfortunately.

    voiceofreason (0de9a6)

  15. EEmma…

    This was one time where I have to agree to disagree…

    EEmma (d11a7b)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.0775 secs.