[guest post by Dana]
Over at the Washington Post, Phillip Bump declared Ben Carson the winner of the GOP debate two weeks ago:
Fox News released the results of the first major-outlet national poll since the first Republican debate three months two weeks ago. Comparing those results to the Fox poll released immediately before the debate, we can, as objectively as possible, declare a winner: Ben Carson, who saw a five-point jump in the polls — a 71 percent increase over where he was two weeks ago.
I wasn’t too impressed with Carson as a contender for the presidency. An absolutely kind and brilliant man with an outstanding resume full of extraordinary accomplishments to be sure, yet his lack of political experience, knowledge, and insight didn’t leave me hoping he would become the next president. Worth noting, however, is that Carson spoke only 6:46 minutes at the debate, about half the time that Trump spoke.
Bump noted another significant change after the debate: Ted Cruz made a big jump of four points. This even though he, as with Carson, spoke only 6:46 minutes. To have jumped four points speaking so little is a good sign for Cruz. Like Trump, he seems to be reaching frustrated voters, but unlike Trump, Cruz offers a very real and wide range of political experience and savvy, a strong conservative voting record, and an immense knowledge of the Constitution and how government is meant to work.
Also good, Carly Fiorina jumped three points, which doubles her previous standing. By the way, Ace of Spades announced that Carly Fiorina will be a guest on this week’s podcast, so be sure to look for it. I think there might actually be some substantive questions asked of the candidate rather than the usual “Did you really mean to call Hillary a liar?” type…
Oh, and who didn’t receive post-debate good news? Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. This is particularly disappointing with regard to Walker. Since his lead one month ago, it has been observed that “Every week since that 22-point high, Walker has shed two or three points of support. The latest Iowa poll has him at just 9 percent.” Definitely not good. Clearly he has his work cut out for him at the next debate.
Speaking of which: the CNN Republican Primary Debate coming from the Reagan Library is scheduled for September 16 and will, of course, air on CNN. The rules they have instituted to position candidates are as follows:
The first 10 candidates – ranked from highest to lowest in polling order from an average of all qualifying polls released between July 16 and September 10 who satisfy the criteria requirements outlined in this document will be invited to participate in “Segment B” of the September 16, 2015 Republican Presidential Primary Debate. In the event of a tie for 10th place, the tiebreaker will be an average of all qualifying polls released between August 26 and September 10. The second tiebreaker will be an average of all qualifying polling conducted in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada released between July 16 and September 10.
Candidates who satisfy the criteria and achieve an average of at least one percent in three national polls, but are not ranked in the top 10 of polling order will be invited to participate in “Segment A” of the September 16, 2015 Republican Presidential Primary Debate.
Post-script: “Their “Segment B” will be the top-tier candidates, while “Segment A” will be the rest who hit the 1% polling mark. CNN also notes that if the number of candidates who qualify overall for the debate are 14 or less, they will limit Segment B to only eight candidates and the rest will spill over to the second tier Segment A.”