Another Possible Ebola Case in Newark; UPDATE: False Alarm
Ponder the trauma and inconvenience to huge numbers of people — never mind the danger:
A United Airlines flight from Brussels was met by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials today at Newark Liberty International Airport after a passenger on board believed to be from Liberia exhibited possible signs of Ebola.
The passenger was traveling with his daughter on United Flight 998 and both were removed from the plane by CDC crew in full hazmat gear.
The passenger suspected of possibly having Ebola was taken to University Hospital in Newark for further evaluation. Upon his arrival, the emergency room there was not accepting any other patients for four hours.
A senior federal official said the passenger was exhibiting “flu-like symptoms.”
According to an official briefed on the situation, preliminary information was that the passenger was vomiting on flight but did not display most of the other symptoms.
The man is believed to have flown from Liberia via Brussels, Belgium – the same route taken by Thomas Eric Duncan, the first person to be diagnosed with Ebola in the United States.
Duncan’s condition has today been classed as ‘critical’ as he is treated for the disease in Dallas, Texas. Ten people linked to him have been classed as ‘high risk’.
How much longer are we going to endure this kind of nonsense as we continue to allow free travel to and from Liberia? As you ponder that question, consider that Alan Grayson — Alan Grayson! — tweeted this:
Hundreds at risk, millions spent, four schools decontaminated—so that a Liberian could visit his girlfriend. http://t.co/lm93h01cid
— Rep. Alan Grayson (@AlanGrayson) October 4, 2014
If the feds aren’t going to do anything — and it seems they aren’t — perhaps the airlines should consider taking action on their own.
UPDATE: False alarm.
Do not trust the government.
Patterico (9c670f) — 10/4/2014 @ 3:57 pmi heard if you rub carmex all over yourself you can’t catch the ebola at all so i went to cvs and yup they’re all out
but you know what I figure if lots of other people protect themselves it’s the same as being protected yourself
so i used my carmex money to buy potato chips and vodka
happyfeet (a785d5) — 10/4/2014 @ 4:01 pm“Deceive, inveigle, obfuscate”
Kevin M (b357ee) — 10/4/2014 @ 4:03 pmjesus it was another united flight
fool me once…
happyfeet (a785d5) — 10/4/2014 @ 4:04 pmHappy: bet you these sell out:
http://www.amazon.com/Dupont-Yellow-Chemical-Protection-Coveralls/dp/B005QQFHI8
Kevin M (b357ee) — 10/4/2014 @ 4:05 pmwow Mr. M
homage to pikachu is all the rage this fall!
and why wouldn’t it be
happyfeet (a785d5) — 10/4/2014 @ 4:08 pmI’m sure when the lawsuits start flying, especially from the first person comes down with ebola after flying with someone who has it, the airlines will take matters into their own hands.
Of course how many will catch it by then and how much damage it will do is another matter.
Sam (e8f1ad) — 10/4/2014 @ 4:17 pmBut when the airlines start refusing to fly to Liberia (or the like), won’t the DOJ be on them for “discrimination”? Everybody has to get infected equally, you know.
navyvet (ec562e) — 10/4/2014 @ 4:20 pmif i got on a plane and had to sit next to some sweaty liberian I’d be all like
would you like some carmex?
happyfeet (a785d5) — 10/4/2014 @ 4:24 pmHow do we know it’s not the same plane used by Duncan, and that it was never disinfected?
askeptic (efcf22) — 10/4/2014 @ 5:03 pmi heard they used like a whole bottle of fabuloso
happyfeet (a785d5) — 10/4/2014 @ 5:04 pmThe only way Barack Hussein Ebolabama* will take this seriously is if a golf course turf maintenance worker is diagnosed with it.
*It’s a meme.
nk (dbc370) — 10/4/2014 @ 5:41 pmI am thinking I need to get a whole bunch of ammo and MREs and prepare for a long winter. And to think I was worried about enterovirus last week.
Your federal tax dollars at work.
All hail the community organizer hard at work…
WarEagle82 (b18ccf) — 10/4/2014 @ 6:53 pmOnce the federal government discovers that ebola is a threat to illegal immigrants you can count on them mobilizing every resource available to combat the threat.
If they are convinced it only affects legal immigrants and citizens it will remain an issue of spin.
That’s just how Democrats roll in DC.
WarEagle82 (b18ccf) — 10/4/2014 @ 7:03 pmI was thinking . . . we’ve got mid-terms coming up. We’ve got a lot of jittery CongressPimps worried about staying on the gravy train for another term.
I suggest We-the-Peeps demand a PUBLIC statement from our state’s duly-elected CongressWaffles about how WE WHO ELECT THEM are their top priority (–we’d BETTER be; they took a freaking oath regarding “preserve, protect, and defend” — hold them to it!!) reassuring us that they are going to propose an emergency measure to: secure our borders; return illegal aliens to their own countries immediately upon apprehension; and temporarily refuse travel to the USA by people from Ebola hot-spots.
If they want the perks, they need to do the work. And QUICKLY.
A_Nonny_Mouse (6582b6) — 10/4/2014 @ 7:19 pmFalse alarm.
The odds were in favor of that.
Especially since the patient did not completely fit the profile.
Sammy Finkelman (efc0ed) — 10/4/2014 @ 7:20 pmWell, it is good that they were responding correctly to the situation.
Sammy, the patient in Dallas did not “display most of the other symptoms” either when he first showed up, which is why he was sent home when the history was ignored.
What you need to take into account is “positive predictive value”; throwing up as a symptom by the average person in the US for Ebola is almost never the case (only once so far in known history). Throwing up as a symptom of Ebola in someone from Liberia in the midst of the current outbreak is much more likely. I would have guessed the odds were 100%, and treated the situation so, until proven otherwise.
MD in Philly (f9371b) — 10/4/2014 @ 7:27 pmA_Nonny_Mouse (6582b6) — 10/4/2014 @ 7:19 pm
I would think that would be the worst possible response if you are worried about diseases coming into the United States. Rather, the emergency response should be offering instant amnesty to anyone who turns themselves over provided they allow themselves to undergo amedical examination. That wuld actually control the border, in the sense of minimizing the number of people who come acrss it without inspection.
Sammy Finkelman (efc0ed) — 10/4/2014 @ 7:38 pmWhat makes you think this measure would be temporary? One of the discovers of ebola and World Health Organization is now saying ebola may become endemic:
http://www.health24.com/Medical/infectious-diseases/Ebola/Experts-concerned-Ebola-may-become-endemic-20140929
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/world/health-agencys-new-assessment-of-the-epidemic-is-more-dire-still.html
Do you want to cut off (or attempt to cut off) a whole section of West Afraica, and who knows what else, from the rest of the world. Would that even work?
This kind of a measure (no travel by anyone back and forth) would tend to make that prediction of ebola becoming endemic come true.
Rather, we need an insant test for ebola infection (Theranos could probably develop one in a week, if you disregarded all bureacratic obstacles) and, if this become a chronic problem (more than one case every week or two coming to the United States on a commercial airline) some special place flights from Liberia, or carrying passengers from Liberia, would go to. A special airport.
Sammy Finkelman (efc0ed) — 10/4/2014 @ 7:39 pm@Sammy #18. Pardon me but offering amnesty in return for volunteering for a free medical exam may be the stupidest comment posted here tonight. They have already been offered de facto amnesty. “I’ll give you what you already got through anonymity if you turn yourself into the feds” doesn’t sound like a win/win scenario.
WarEagle82 (b18ccf) — 10/4/2014 @ 7:42 pmIt looks like Sammy hasn’t “peaked” for the night so my last comment may have been premature. It looks like he is prepping for a Blutarsky-like roll…
WarEagle82 (b18ccf) — 10/4/2014 @ 7:44 pmSammy is especially out of it, tonight. Diseases are, and have always been, grounds for exclusion not amnesty. But he reflects the thinking that gave us a Mau Mau in the White House.
Sammy, are you thinking what I’m thinking? That if people agreed to have sex with you if you told them you had AIDS, then more people with AIDS would admit they had the disease?
nk (dbc370) — 10/4/2014 @ 7:56 pmnonono
the alarm was real
happyfeet (a785d5) — 10/4/2014 @ 8:08 pmand warranted.
Gazzer (8aebb1) — 10/4/2014 @ 8:26 pmAsk yourself, are you more likely to be infected or beheaded than you were six years ago?
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 10/4/2014 @ 8:34 pmgood news Mr. daley – both are covered under the obamacare silver plan
happyfeet (a785d5) — 10/4/2014 @ 8:37 pmAt this point, I’ll be happy to hear that career national security officials have safeguards in place that prevent a President (or Vice President) from giving the nuclear codes to Russia.
nk (dbc370) — 10/4/2014 @ 8:42 pmfeets – I gots me the Obamacare silver plan but it doesn’t cover my doctor or local hospital, but at least it’s good to know I’m all set if I get the Ebola or my head gets chopped off in random workplace violence.
Does it cover the rape culture?
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 10/4/2014 @ 8:52 pmMr. daley you need a gold or platinum plan if you need to get your rape culture looked at, but remember – companies can’t discriminate against you no mores if you have a prezisting dishun
happyfeet (a785d5) — 10/4/2014 @ 9:32 pmI always vomit on the plane. Just before the big show too.
papertiger (c2d6da) — 10/4/2014 @ 10:08 pmI saw in the original piece about the case in Joysee that when the suspected Ebola patient arrived that the hospital was closed to regular business — probably meaning the emergency room — for 4 hours following. Not knowing the neighborhood served by that hospital, I can only think of some that I am somewhat familiar with… and closing the ER for 4 hours would mean that a lot of people would be denied care. If you did that at SF General, Highland (Oakland) or UC Davis (Sacramento) people could die; those hospitals serve some dangerous places.
If that 4 hour closure is accepted protocol then we are already in danger of overloading our already faltering emergency medical care system… These people are in essence medical “suicide” bombers, and they don’t even have to have the disease.
Remember that its “flu-like symptoms” and we are just entering flu season so there will be a lot of those symptoms running around. This could get ugly real fast.
Mr. Eagle (@13)– I’ve got the grub and the ammo, but I think my Jack Daniels stash is low… will shop tomorrow.
Gramps, the original (7adb80) — 10/4/2014 @ 11:40 pmThe US is not going to do anything to restrict travel because we can always catch problems as they enter the US. Of course, even if that were true they could have infected 300-400 other passengers who can now transmit the disease far and wide.
According to obama it is much better to let them infect everyone on the plane then it is to prevent them from flying in the first place.
I think a law should be passed to prohibit anyone who voted for obama twice from ever voting again. Anyone who voted for him once should be put on probation. Any additional signs of idiocy and their voting rights should be rescinded also.
Jim (145e10) — 10/5/2014 @ 6:03 amI’m in favor of repealing every Amendment after the 13th. And I’m not sure of the 13th. I can see five liberal dips**ts on the Supreme Court finding McDonald’s getting your order wrong a badge or incidence of slavery.
nk (dbc370) — 10/5/2014 @ 6:11 amYet flights were suspended to Israel during the summer….
israel (b6e5c4) — 10/5/2014 @ 7:15 amAccording to obama it is much better to let them infect everyone on the plane then it is to prevent them from flying in the first place.
Yes, because compassion and a big heart must reign supreme, even if that results in situations that are anything but compassionate and humane.
@Sammy #18. Pardon me but offering amnesty in return for volunteering for a free medical exam may be the stupidest comment posted here tonight.
Sammy has no credibility on the issue of whether it’s good or bad to restrict the movement of people from Africa due to the threat of Ebola because he has previously expressed resistance to doing much or anything regarding the far more basic and sensible concept of restricting residents of Mexico — with the issue of Ebola no where to be seen — from moseying on past the southern border.
Mark (c160ec) — 10/5/2014 @ 8:27 amImagine the increased workload on our medical system now that every flu victim has to be checked for Ebola. That’s what it comes down to, now that Obama has let Ebola in. The protocols are much more daunting and expensive.
Good way to destroy the American economy, if one were of a mind to do that.
Patricia (5fc097) — 10/5/2014 @ 8:33 ambecause we still haven’t met for tacos…
redc1c4 (abd49e) — 10/5/2014 @ 10:15 amwe will we will before i leave that is a promise
happyfeet (a785d5) — 10/5/2014 @ 10:24 am@Gramps, #31. From my experience ammo and Jack Daniels are both fine. But mixing them often leads to sub-optimal experiences.
WarEagle82 (b18ccf) — 10/5/2014 @ 11:17 am17. MD in Philly (f9371b) ù 10/4/2014 @ 7:27 pm
I read that phrase “did not display most of the other symptoms” as meaning that, IF the person was vomiting AND that was because of ebola, other things should ALSO be true. BUT they weren’t.
In other words, whatever else besides vomiting happens in an ebola case, DIDN’T happen here.
What you need to take into account is “positive predictive value” throwing up as a symptom by the average person in the US for Ebola is almost never the case (only once so far in known history). Throwing up as a symptom of Ebola in someone from Liberia in the midst of the current outbreak is much more likely. I would have guessed the odds were 100%, and treated the situation so, until proven otherwise.
Yes, take into account is “positive predictive value”
But then there’s Bayesian analysis. Consider…
The question is does anyone with ebola throw up, but display no other obvious symptoms, not even a fever?? (the person could not have gotten aboard the plane with a fever. *)
I don’t know, but from the tone of the article it sounds like that shouldn’t be expected to occur very often.
In that case, Bayesian analysis therefore actually argues against it being ebola!!
Certainly more than in the case of the patient in Dallas!
Having half of the symptoms of a disease makes it less likely that a person has a disease than having none of the symptoms, or just having something that shows up at an early stage even if it is very common.
That’s not paradoxical. It’s simple logic.
The Newark case should not have been expected to turn out to be ebola – it probably would NOT. The odds were less than 50%, and maybe much less, in spite of his coming from Liberia, because you had the vomiting without the bleeding or whatever other symptoms you would discern in a case of ebola.
The patient in Dallas did not display symptoms inconsistent with ebola, because he did not display any (specific really) symptoms of ebola.
Therefore, he could have had the disease in its early stages. The start of a case. It was not counterindicated – the principles of differential diagnoses did not argue against it.
But the patient in Newark DID display a combination of symptoms and non symptoms inconsistent with ebola, because if it had proceeded to vomiting, he should also be bleeding maybe perhaps, or whatever.
There are still other diseases, and something like that might be less likely to be ebola than somebody who did not throw up.
(sometimes of course I understand there are unusual cases where some symptoms of a disease are present, but what usually is also there is not.)
Update: The New York Times reports today As U.S. Ebola Fears Widen, Reports of Possible Cases Grow`
that it actually fit the profile anotehr disease better
Sammy Finkelman (31cdef) — 10/5/2014 @ 11:29 amThey may have been right to treat this as possible ebola, because ebola is so dangerous, but they should not have expected, and probably in fact did not expect, that it would probably ACTUALLY turn out to be ebola.
There are the words in the article “did not display most of the other symptoms” and for a such a caveat to make it all the way into print and online, the probability that it was not ebola must have been pretty strong, if not overwhelming, because all the bias is to say that what the authorities do is correct and necessary.
They should not have led other people to expect (which they can do simply by saying nothing to clarify this) that it probably was ebola.
This was what is called, when officials speak in its defense, “an excess of caution”, but this principle of guarding against low probability contingencies is applied inconsistently, depending on what is easier or not, and whose ox is gored.
For example, they put people under quarantine – but then they let someone go shopping (that family was not under court order) and officials visit them.
All this leads people to believe that they are endangering the public. Because if all these steps are necessary, then they should do other things too, and if not, why are they doing it in the first place?
The answer is, they are being inconsistent, and most of it is unnecessary, and the probability anyway cannot be reduced to absolute zero…they are reducing a 1 in 5,000 chance, say to 1 in 100,000.* Re: the person could not have gotten aboard the plane with a fever. They have these temperature guns nowadays, which can detect a fever without touching the person. It seems to be the only tool they’ve got. They haven’t got anything else very modern.
The idea of using antibodies is reported to have not worked well in monkeys, but that could be because the dosage was too low. You know they always nowadays test things out at very low dosage. A recovered patient might just not have enough antibodies in his system for this to work. In fact, they tried too low dosages of penicillin at first, I think.
Sammy Finkelman (31cdef) — 10/5/2014 @ 11:29 amit takes a great deal for Alan Grayson to say something smarter than any other human being. Thanks, Obama!
Bugg (f0dbc7) — 10/5/2014 @ 12:39 pm32- Is that why we’re not doing anything about illegal immigration, because we’re so good at apprehending the one’s who come across the border?
We are so phuqued!
askeptic (efcf22) — 10/5/2014 @ 12:53 pmWarEagle82 (b18ccf) — 10/5/2014 @ 11:17 am
As long as you don’t store the ammo IN the Jack, what’s the problem?
askeptic (efcf22) — 10/5/2014 @ 12:55 pmSammy, I’m not going to argue medicine with you.
Bayes or not, clinical experience of the medical profession teaches that an “uncommon presentation of a common problem” is more likely than a “common presentation of an uncommon problem”. Now, the kicker with this, is that a usually uncommon problem is by no means currently uncommon for someone in/from Liberia.
A key to the art of medicine is knowing when to suspect that things are not adding up. For example, if someone has overwhelming infection, it is quite possible for a person to no longer have a fever, the body no longer has the strength to mount a fever. Whether this can happen in Ebola I do not know.
But all of that was more for onlookers if interested.
And perhaps what should be more obvious to us all, do you really expect news articles in the general press to be that precise in describing anything technical to argue fine points? We should not go there.
MD in Philly (f9371b) — 10/5/2014 @ 1:24 pmSammy, there is no symptom or even combination of symptoms that are specific for Ebola. As you know, many things cause fever, many things cause vomiting and other GI symptoms, many overwhelming infections can result in DIC which results in easy bleeding, people can present with fever, bleeding, and low platelets because of leukemia with infection, which in other years would have been far more likely on a plane coming to the US than Ebola.
As has been said by others, I do not know how effective Tylenol and ibuprofen and such are effective against the fever of Ebola in the early stages, so absence of a fever may mean little.
MD in Philly (f9371b) — 10/5/2014 @ 1:30 pmMD, you know how Teh Sammy is. I’m told he is a nice fellow, if a whole lot tone deaf. I don’t think there is a mean or false bone in his body.
The danger of his point of view is that is based on cursory reading or how he feels things ought to be.
Sort of like this administration, to be honest.
Lots of people, including me, very much appreciate your posts.
Simon Jester (e656c3) — 10/5/2014 @ 2:21 pmYeah Bugg, the world is upside down when Alan Grayson makes perfect sense to me.
Patricia (5fc097) — 10/5/2014 @ 6:49 pm