Patterico's Pontifications

Jindal/Christie!

gahrie (ed7a50) — 7/30/2010 @ 6:33 pm

I’d vote for Jundal/Christie with great pleasure.

I’m a Palin fan, though.

All I ask is that our candidate be able to stand up to pressure and actually reform. Someone who wants power for reform’s sake, rather than talking the talk these days for power’s sake.

This is why people love Palin… all that anger and pressure against her, and while it’s certainly taken a toll, she’s still apparently fighting the good fight.

But that’s not at all to the detriment of Paul Ryan (easily my favorite) or other reform candidates.

My fear is that they tear eachother apart and we wind up with a finger in the wind politician.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 6:40 pm

All of these list of names that might run for President for the Republican Party are not conservative. Mitt Romney won’t get my vote in 2012.

m (6adec1) — 7/30/2010 @ 7:12 pm

m, it’s going to be possible to say nearly any candidate isn’t conservative enough.

What matters is a commitment to limited and honest government, which means a commitment to major reform in the face of intense pressure.

My take on Romney is that he will shift positions when politically helpful, but I’m happy to hear him make his case in 2012. I know I won’t be voting for him, like you.

but let’s not rule out some of the good ones just because there’s some example out there, such as Christie’s immigration talk (which probably was overblown).

I read somewhere that Palin is shooting 24 for 29 on endorsements. She’s much more politically powerful than she gets credit for being. I think it’s going to be dang hard to beat her people in the primary, and the general will be a referendum on Obama.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 7:27 pm

there’s only one name in there I could vote for. Which, that’s not very many. Maybe John Thune too but he’s a senator so you can bet he’s got a healthy streak of whore.

happyfeet (19c1da) — 7/30/2010 @ 7:43 pm

One, anyone who has run and lost on a national ticket is deemed already rejected by the public and shouldn’t be nominated… no matter how much the rabid right likes her, uh, him, uh, the candidate.

Two, anyone who tried and failed to get the GOP nomination shouldn’t be nominated; what does it say about them if they couldn’t beat the bozo who was nominated and lost? Kids mature, candidates who stunk up the joint once are destined to do it again.

Three, anyone who has held a Congressional leadership position and managed to botch it up so badly that they were forced to step down shouldn’t be nominated, as that shows a remarkable lack of ability to handle the enemy, I mean, the Democrats and the media.

Everybody else is ok, at least to start with.

steve (116925) — 7/30/2010 @ 7:45 pm

I could vote for Haley too I guess but there’s no danger of him getting nominated.

happyfeet (19c1da) — 7/30/2010 @ 7:45 pm

Nixon, ’60, Reagan ’76, Bush Sr, ’80, any other sage advice.

ian cormac (e46147) — 7/30/2010 @ 7:50 pm

Daniels is the only one on that list that does not make me want to cry.

JD (3dc31c) — 7/30/2010 @ 7:52 pm

I heard Newt speak several years ago in person and was very impressed. No teleprompter for him, and his handling of the Q and A session demonstrated his depth of knowledge on a wide range of issues and his ability to condense his thoughts into very clear and understandable statements. (The polar opposite of someone we currently have to listen to a lot.) Unfortunately Newt somewhat messed up his chances for the presidency and his reputation a few years back and I cannot see him escaping the wrath of the left noise machine. I think he’d make a very competent president, though.

elissa (d824dd) — 7/30/2010 @ 7:56 pm

steve, if you characterize the right as rabid, you aren’t credible.

Reagan lost a primary. Actually, the American people have chosen several great presidents who ran and lost before. Dusting yourself off and giving your best in the future is a sign of personal strength. democrats think like you… that ‘he lost before, so he’s done forever’ is not the best way to pick tough leaders. You’ll always wind up with a flavor of the month like that empty suit.

People who fight these fights long enough are going to suffer defeats and bitter days. That’s part of what experience is about. If you rule out anyone who has ever lost, you wind up with people who have no experience, judged by who tells the grandest lie. In other words, Obama.

I’m still hoping for Ryan. I think it’s plausible. But Palin has made major strides and is heavily vetted. Her supporters are dedicated and it’s just hard to see her not leaving super Tuesday having crushed all but a couple of stubborn candidates. Some polls say she can beat Obama today, and she’s more heavily vetted than pretty much anybody. It’s nice to imagine someone like Ryan making headway into the thick skulls of our nation, arguing for a fundamentally more realistic spending level. He’s the only one I believe can do that. Palin (or anyone else) would be another chapter in this cold civil war of bitterness.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 7:59 pm

EX-governor Palin.

JEA (f9f860) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:00 pm

JEA is an idiot. That is all.

JD (3dc31c) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:01 pm

elissa, Newt is heavily underrated. He’s the real deal, but he’s made a few mistakes and he doesn’t look like a Ken doll.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:01 pm

Obama will win in 2012.

JD (3dc31c) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:03 pm

JD, the thing I hate most about your pessimism is that it’s realistic.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:03 pm

I am pessimistic on my good days.

JD (3dc31c) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:04 pm

Well she’s talked him up, but the key is to have a leadership team to work with you, The House Ways and Means committee is a very important tool for
the necessary budget reforms, hence Ryan has to be chair

ian cormac (e46147) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:05 pm

Oh, and while Obama would annihilate Romney or Huckabee, I think he would lose handily to someone who actually IS a brilliant and well spoken leader.

Paul Ryan against mumbling Obama? People can smell the BS politician ‘expertise’. Even Palin obviously smells of it sometimes. but Ryan can actually say he has dug into these intractable domestic catastrophes and worked out some kind of way out. Obama can chant ‘fired up?’ 100,000 times.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:06 pm

I don’t want Ryan to run yet, as we need at least one sane Republican in the House. The idea that Boehner might become Speaker is very disheartening to me.

JD (3dc31c) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:10 pm

Gingrich, himself a potential candidate for president,…

No. Not even.

His inexplicable backing of Skeezflavin was the final straw.

Blacque Jacques Shellacque (baf610) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:13 pm

What we don’t need is
a Perry, Huckleberry
or the JebBush please

ColonelHaiku (ac3c3c) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:14 pm

Romney not a well
spoken leader? Huh? puhleeze
AND AN HONEST MAN

ColonelHaiku (ac3c3c) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:16 pm

Sleeper candidate Alvin Greene when he switches parties.

daleyrocks (940075) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:26 pm

“I don’t want Ryan to run yet, as we need at least one sane Republican in the House. The idea that Boehner might become Speaker is very disheartening to me.

Comment by JD ”

You have a good point. But these are desperate times. The President is required to submit a budget. I know who the best man for this job is. He’s in a very powerful spot today, but I honestly think he could beat the hell out of Obama. The polls these days are a very poor metric. We have to ask who can really carry an argument to the voters. Ultimately, it’s up to him and he’s probably not going to run.

Romney not a well
spoken leader? Huh? puhleeze
AND AN HONEST MAN

Comment by ColonelHaiku

I don’t want to demonize Romney. Frankly, the only reason I’d ever vote for him was to spite those who went way too far doing that.

but I think it’s hard for him to convince me that he means what he says. If he’s really an honest man, as you say, then … I could just list some of the things he’s said. We all know that old argument. He would face tremendous pressure if he tried to reform government. I’m happy to hear his argument in 2012, but it’ll be hard for him to sell me on that critical piece.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:28 pm

No. Not even.

His inexplicable backing of Skeezflavin was the final straw.

Comment by Blacque Jacques Shellacque

It’s hard to forgive this, since a major key to being a president is picking good people. Bush made more than a couple of bad choices. One of his SecStates was a disaster, FEMA, of course, one of his Court picks…

But Newt is a brilliant leader. It’s a huge huge huge huge shame that people like him, people who write their own books and think constructively, can’t keep up with the political game players. There are people who are simply better at endorsements, building a nice circle of allies, etc.

One thing I would really appreciate is if all the GOP candidates were to write a book on their ideas, their experiences, and how they see America’s situation. And we read these books, blogs criticize or discuss passages.

Of course, we would wind up picking someone who couldn’t compete on camera with The One and TOTUS and foam pillars of destiny.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:33 pm

Daniels/Ryan would make me less pessimistic. Pretty much all of the other potential combinations would ensure 4 more years of the Idiot in Chief.

JD (3dc31c) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:36 pm

I do think that voters are going to be looking for a grown-up to run for president in 2012. Even many who voted for the historic presidency now see how callow, shallow, and utterly inexperienced he was–and because of that he is not serving our nation any where nearly as well as they had hoped.

elissa (d824dd) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:37 pm

A Republican House will also help ensure another Barcky term.

JD (3dc31c) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:38 pm

Obama will win in 2012.

Probably true. Realistically, it would take a remarkably talented individual to really aggressively roll Obama’s govt. explosion back. Not sure any of the above could pull it off. They might be somewhat better in the area of foreign policy of course, but something tells me they, with the possible exception of Palin, would still end up pushing the idea that giving statehood to Hamas is the “key” to Middle East peace.

There is the courts of course. That might be the only likely area where there would be a huge improvement.

Gerald A. (2b94cf) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:41 pm

I’m fairly indifferent to Romney, but his acolytes who hang out in places like Rightosphere, are absolutely vicious. Huck is the only candidate I
do affirmatively loath, because he is the GOP’s version of Carter.

Since the press has missed the lessons of the last
30 years, the gravitated to a candidate like Obama, who really thought Carter and Clinton were too moderate, that was their weak point

ian cormac (e46147) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:44 pm

That Palin is not willing to do her homework and instead is eagerly all over the board (publicly) is troubling. IMO, she’s jumping the gun and does conservatives a disservice in her haste. If she is going to run, however, she’ll sure need a brain and sharp mind like Paul Ryan.

In stark contrast, Christie said when asked if he would run, that he simply knew he wasn’t ready. Period. Not desire to be flattered into it, just honest and direct. It’s refreshing one in his position would be willing to look himself squarely in the and make such an assessment and be okay with it.

Dana (8ba2fb) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:53 pm

Dana, I agree that Christie’s attitude was refreshing. Though I sorta discount this ‘I will not be running’ stuff. Obama said that, too. I’m surprised people believe a word he says.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 8:58 pm

A Team R House will limit the amount of badness that Barcky can do legislatively, which in the end, will help Barcky. But, he and the Dems have shown the willingness to just impose things from the agencies that are legislative in nature, short circuiting the system.

JD (3dc31c) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:01 pm

Actually she’s been fairly consistently center right
in her speeches, one can argue over all her endorsements, Fiorina for one. But on the issues that matter she is right

ian cormac (e46147) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:01 pm

Dana–I agree with every word you said in comment #32. And I do believe that Christie means what he says.

elissa (d824dd) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:06 pm

I’m not so sure Obama would be all that safe in 12 if GOP wins one or both Houses in 10. Clinton went pragmatic and stole Conservative positions for his own after 94. But Obama is a narcissistic radical who is just as likely to keep pushing the radical agenda, even if he loses both Houses in 10. 94, there was no TEA Party; 10, I don’t expect the TEA Party to die after November.

There is a radicalization of the DNC, far beyond that of 94, and there is an awakening of the giant in opposition to the radical agenda. That being said, say “no” to Newt, Huck, Romney, Giuliani.

John Hitchcock (9e8ad9) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:07 pm

I agree with John that Obama is a strange fish and he very well could play it stupid. When he says he’s willing to overplay his hand and be a one termer, he might really mean it.

But I also remember that Clinton before the GOP takeover was really quite out of control too. And his leadership style was best described as ‘burn children alive’.

I think it’s a little harsh to say Palin hasn’t been ‘doing her homework’, when most of what she’s been doing is digging into the issues of the day and commenting on them intelligently. She seems pretty darn well versed on just about every controversial issue these days, and I think it’s because she’s been doing her homework. The reason she doesn’t sound like Paul Ryan yet is because she just doesn’t have it in her.

I can accept that. I think she’d be really good, even. I’m not going to pretend she’s flawless or the savior, but I usually am happy with her positions and how she conveys them. Most people either radically under or over estimate her… it’s going to be a roller coaster with her.

And I wonder… will someone make a credible primary run against Obama? That really is a big part of what did in Carter. Doesn’t have to be Hillary. Could be Jim Webb.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:15 pm

I’m thinking that the 2012 general election might be more of “team Conservative” vs. Obama than just the pres candidate. For example, Paul Ryan, even if not the candidate, could have a vocal and up-front presence on the kind of things that could be done with the budget if there wasn’t a Dem President to veto it.

In some ways I think Palin has been over-exposed as a commentator, but at her best she is very good, and she’s shown toughness by staying active on the national scene in spite of all the character assassination she’s had to put up with. She does have a large negative knee-jerk to overcome. I’ve said before Jindahl/Palin.

I’ve also said before that the Repub candidates should expect a vicious mass attack by the press, like a piranha feeding frenzie even if there is nothing to feed on.

MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:30 pm

What’s wrong with Pat Buchanan? If the Dems continue to mishandle the immigration thing, he might end up drafted if he doesn’t run under his own power.

Technomad (e2c0f2) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:33 pm

Buchanan, whom I liked very much, kinda poisoned his own well when he sacrificed some of his principles as he was running 3rd party. I can’t say I could pull the trigger on that one. Kasich could hold some sway. I like him. But he’d only have 2 years as Ohio governor and he might well have difficulty pulling in the indy vote. A lack of flamboyance and charisma, despite his Conservative credentials.

John Hitchcock (9e8ad9) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:39 pm

And I want Kasich to stay governor once he wins it in November.

John Hitchcock (9e8ad9) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:39 pm

All I ask is that our candidate be able to stand up to pressure and actually reform. Someone who wants power for reform’s sake, rather than talking the talk these days for power’s sake

Question: what exactly do you mean by “reform”? I see three things which can be called by that phrase, and they don’t necessarily all go together

1) reform of the legislative process, to cut back on pork and lobbyists and the power of incumbency

2) rolling back Obama’s programs

3)real budgetary reform (including Medicare, Soc Security, etc.) so we don’t havet declare national bankruptcy in a few years.

What’s wrong with Pat Buchanan?
You want every Jew in this country to vote for Obama?

kishnevi (2c3adb) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:44 pm

havet

have to

Better get to bed…

kishnevi (93ba58) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:45 pm

What’s wrong with Pat Buchanan? What isn’t is prolly a shorter list.

JD (3dc31c) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:45 pm

I think it’s a little harsh to say Palin hasn’t been ‘doing her homework’, when most of what she’s been doing is digging into the issues of the day and commenting on them intelligently. She seems pretty darn well versed on just about every controversial issue these days, and I think it’s because she’s been doing her homework. The reason she doesn’t sound like Paul Ryan yet is because she just doesn’t have it in her.

Palin is good at the topical. She knows the issues of the day and obviously reads. I think the concern is the lack of foundational knowledge (economics, history, foreign policy). She says the right things most of the time, but I don’t have the sense that she has a big picture grasp or the foundation in which those views are buitl upon. It’s hard to explain but there just appears to be a shallow knowledge of lots of issues but no depth on any particular issue… I guess I should just say dilettante.

Dana (8ba2fb) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:52 pm

Kishnevi,

I was going to explain what I mean by reform, but I’d basically be parroting you. Our government is out of money and we need to stop going into so much debt. That means entitlements needs to be undone, and Paul Ryan has a plan that I believe in (we would all like to go further, but our nation could afford this). Our legislative system is broken and the backroom deals and corrupt process needs to be overhauls and the crooks need to face some kind of major change to the way things work.

Basically, what you said. We all know what reforms are needed. There are many other big issues, such as our border, our war effort, social issues… but we’re headed for a financial disaster and that must be averted.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 9:53 pm

I don’t mean to drop a bomb and then leave, but i really need to get to bed. Palin as the nominee would take a likelihood of Barcky winning again and make it a near certainty.

JD (3dc31c) — 7/30/2010 @ 10:07 pm

Dana, you’ve IDed the problem with Palin.

I’m not going to deny it, except to point out that she has shown a lot of depth in how she ran her state, and in particular on energy issues. She speaks in slogans sometimes, though… it’s on her to deal with this perception. I honestly think this isn’t a matter of her ‘foundational knowledge’. I think Bush had a similar perception problem that was similarly unrelated to his actual wisdom level. That doesn’t mean you’re wrong… this is still a major public view.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/30/2010 @ 10:08 pm

________________________________

Huckabee is way too squishy — too semi-closeted liberal — for my tastes. So is Romney, although perhaps less so. Gingrich has a bit of Clinton-type sleaze hovering around his background, so I’d place him to the side.

Palin? She has kind of a happy-talk newscaster quality about her, which gives me pause. The other potential Republican candidates are one big blur right now.

However, I’ll gladly take any of these folks over the ultra-liberal now in the White House.

As for the American electorate? Since the middle ground of the socio-political spectrum has shifted to the left over the past 50-plus years, there is plenty of “squish” out there. Throw in the effect of Euro-socialist sentiment from across the Atlantic and Latino leftism from south of the border — and tons of knuckleheaded liberalism rooted throughout urban America — and common sense is in shorter supply than ever before.

IOW, if various people all around us — our spouses, children, siblings, parents, cousins, relatives, co-workers, neighbors, colleagues, friends, etc — were dumb enough to vote for Obama in the first place, there’s no telling how dumb (ie, leftwing) they may be in the future.

Mark (411533) — 7/30/2010 @ 10:24 pm

“… The President is required to submit a budget…”

Dustin, have you seen the budget submitted by BHO for FY-2011?
I haven’t; and, to the best of my knowledge, neither has anyone else.
No hearings in the House, none in the Senate either.
In 62-days, the Federal Government will begin FY-2011, and no budget has been passed, and no authorizing legislation has been considered.
What are we going to have?
Gov’t by Continuing Resolution and Executive Order?
Even the Sun King was more organized than this, and he Ruled by Divine Right!

AD - RtR/OS! (595de0) — 7/30/2010 @ 11:03 pm

Dana: You might want to tune in to Fox’s Chris Wallace show on Sunday…he’s scheduled a big interview with Sarah Palin.

Also, if you want to keep current on her, check her twitter/facebook pages, which is where she does the majority of her communicating.

As to her basic functional knowledge, I think she gets a bum deal from The Ruling Party elites because she didn’t matriculate from one of their favored campuses.
Remember, Ronald Wilson Reagan graduated from a small campus in IL and that never held him back.
In fact, in some circles, not having an Ivy education is considered an advantage, as it demonstrates a committment to learning v. a committment to schmoozing –
it’s a Country Party thing.

AD - RtR/OS! (595de0) — 7/30/2010 @ 11:17 pm

Comment by Mark — 7/30/2010 @ 10:24 pm

Palin was a Communications Major, and her first jobs were as a sportscaster on TV.

AD - RtR/OS! (595de0) — 7/30/2010 @ 11:19 pm

Gingrich is of course brilliant, but he seems too much of a phony, with his personal sleaze, for me to trust much.

Palin, for all her greenness as a national politician, at least isn’t a phony. And she’s much sounder on global warming than Gingrich, who is a squish on the subject.

Romney? Huckabee? Vomitrocious!

Daniels would be interesting; his record as governor is encouraging.

Christie — good man, but he will have his hands full for the next few years with his own governorship.

And of course, my sentimental favorite is Ron Paul.

Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (fb9e90) — 7/31/2010 @ 12:40 am

First, it’s way too early for this speculation, we haven’t even gotten to the mid-terms yet. Those outcomes will have great impact on the possibilities for 2012. And, Obama still has 2 and a half years to go. But, let’s play the game anyway.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but the GOP establishment will fight it out with the TEA Party for control. I see a compromise ticket emerging from the scuffle, most likely a Romney/Palin ticket.

It wouldn’t be my first choice, and it has it’s drawbacks, but it does represent the interests of the major players.

I could live with it, and support it.

ropelight (9dd2a3) — 7/31/2010 @ 1:09 am

JD,

any one except Romney who has ethics problems with his residency in Utah while being governor of Mass, could handily defear Obama.

Palin, seems to be as knowledgeable as anyone else on issues – much to the dismay of the press

If Palin runs, there will be landslide

EricPWJohnson (ab6cc8) — 7/31/2010 @ 1:48 am

We will have had 3 1/2+ years of seeing Obama in action and the opportunity to educate the public. I think it will be hard to have much hope for the future if he can’t be defeated, and that includes overcoming election fraud and preventing an executive order to allow illegals to vote.

MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 7/31/2010 @ 6:42 am

I’m still surprised he has any popularity left, considering the abysmal nature of his policies his stated contempt for this country. Then again he has
the press acting as his ‘pooper scoopers,’ and if you think they won’t go after Daniel’s pension shortfall in Indiana, or Romney’s draft dodging
in Paris, or who knows what else, then you really
are naive.

All I know, is when it counted, she sounded the call, when most others were either endorsing orsoftpedaling a horrible policy choice (Romney on the GM takeover, abandoning the Iranian dissidents) or had brought it about in some way(Gingrich on Freddie Mac, and AGW promotion)

ian cormac (6718a9) — 7/31/2010 @ 6:52 am

The Democrats refusal to even vote on a budget, out of their fear of actually being held to account for the contents of a budget by voters, is proof of their unfitness for running the country.

SPQR (26be8b) — 7/31/2010 @ 10:55 am

If Palin runs, there will be landslide

Who knew EPWJ was such a Palin fan?

AD - RtR/OS! (d16b15) — 7/31/2010 @ 11:57 am

But Newt is a brilliant leader.

I have to disagree – not only did he get completely pantsed by Clinton during his high – stakes gamble in shutting down the gov’t, he also gave up most of the “contract with America” principles after the first two years were up.

It’s a huge huge huge huge shame that people like him, people who write their own books and think constructively, can’t keep up with the political game players.

He’s obviously intelligent but is also just as obviously a sleazbag in his personal life. Do we not have enough of this kind of baggage regarding some of the other candidates? No thank you.

I still think Christie may change his mind if enough pressure is brought to bear – he has an ego, and don’t discount that need to be “called to duty,” if the moment appears. And as for anyone thinking about Buchanan, you gotta be kidding me! Might as well start practicing our goosesteps right now. He’s also a real SOB on a personal level, not a big surprise.

Dmac (d61c0d) — 7/31/2010 @ 12:25 pm

Hope no one is serious when they say “I couldn’t vote for X, Y, or Z”. I have my druthers, but I’ll vote for Bullwinkle the Moose if he is the nominee against Obama.

jodetoad (7720fb) — 7/31/2010 @ 12:31 pm

Dmac, I basically agree with you. I was more drawing a distinction between political skill and actual critical brilliance.

I think he got things to a good start, and like you said, eventually let us down. And of course, he’s made several other mistakes. But these 2012 talks often wind up being contests of bashing… I don’t even want to bash Romney anymore.

Dustin (b54cdc) — 7/31/2010 @ 12:39 pm

I don’t have any objections against Christie, but he hasn’t even finished his first year yet, this is right about the time that the Standard sent it’s scouting team up to Juneau

ian cormac (6718a9) — 7/31/2010 @ 1:01 pm

Good point, Dustin – and although I like much of what Romney says, the fact that he refuses to disown his Frankenstein Monster of a state healthcare plan means I’ll never trust him.

Dmac (d61c0d) — 7/31/2010 @ 3:55 pm

Good point, Dustin – and although I like much of what Romney says, the fact that he refuses to disown his Frankenstein Monster of a state healthcare plan means I’ll never trust him.

In fact, that’s the real major weakness Romney would have in a general election. He presided over what was in essence a dress rehearsal for Obamacare, which means he can’t be expected to press through even a modest rollback unless forced to.

Outstanding little thread here–we’ve already reached a consensus here: Palin or Christie, or else someone who has yet to appear on the horizon 🙂

(I know I’ve sounded negative about Palin, but I’m simply skeptical about whether she deserves the enthusiasm many people have for her. I’m pretty sure, unless something further comes out about her, that I could easily vote for her in a general election against anybody the Deomcrats chose in either 2012 or 2016.)

kishnevi (8731ef) — 7/31/2010 @ 5:23 pm

Is anyone against Jindahl?

MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 7/31/2010 @ 5:27 pm

(I know I’ve sounded negative about Palin, but I’m simply skeptical about whether she deserves the enthusiasm many people have for her. I’m pretty sure, unless something further comes out about her, that I could easily vote for her in a general election against anybody the Deomcrats chose in either 2012 or 2016.)

This pretty much is my bottom line, too. I remain reservedly hopeful. I still wish she had opted to make the time to do her homework instead of flitting everywhere, but I realize it’s kept her in the public eye and kept her name out there. Be that as it may, if she’s the one to run, I’ll vote for her over anyone the Dems choose.

(If only there were a Paul Ryan/Chris Christie ticket. Now that would be something to actually get excited about.)

Dana (8ba2fb) — 7/31/2010 @ 5:39 pm

Palin was a Communications Major

I’m fully aware of that, although I think Palin’s persona (or speech pattern) naturally comes off that way, regardless. It doesn’t really bother me, but I’m speaking extra critically only because I know that in the world of politics a certain amount of tactical gameplaying is crucial. IOW, one has to gauge all the left-leaning sentiment found throughout the public, and that liberalism (as phony and foolish as it is) tends to nitpick away at people like Palin.

By contrast, the leftism of a Hillary Clinton protects her ability to flee from sniper fire when visiting Bosnia and to be the ultimate enabler (and phony) to sleazy dudes like husband Bill.

Mark (411533) — 7/31/2010 @ 5:49 pm

You mean like pointing out the fundamental flaws in the health care bill, which the Berwick appt confirms, or challenging the stimulus against both
Obama and the corrupt legislature who consumed it whole, interestingly it is one of the few states that didn’t lose net jobs this term, although with
the moratorium all bets are off

ian cormac (6718a9) — 7/31/2010 @ 5:59 pm

Ah Hillary, outmaneuvered by the journolist and the primary hankypanky, she accepted the Secretary of State position but gave up her donor list, and was stripped of most negotiating authority, had vipers
like Samantha Power as underlings, and now has lost
one of her only remaining allies, Lew to OMB

ian cormac (6718a9) — 7/31/2010 @ 6:05 pm

Side question:
although with
the moratorium all bets are off

Does Alaska have any deep water drilling of any consequence. I thought it was almost entirely land based up there (hence the concerns with caribou migration,etc.).

kishnevi (3a3033) — 7/31/2010 @ 9:34 pm

Alaska’s Puget Sound (I believe it is) is off-shore, but not deep-water. The caribou issue was with the pipeline; and as it turns out, the fauna love the warmth of the pipeline and have multiplied because of it.

John Hitchcock (9e8ad9) — 7/31/2010 @ 9:49 pm

Well there those prospective oil leases in the Chukchi Sea, that sHell paid 3.5 million for, which
are lost due to the stay/moratorium et al

ian cormac (6718a9) — 7/31/2010 @ 9:57 pm

Gov. Christie of NJ said he is not interest running for President in 2012. Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty might be a good choice for 2012. Mitt Romney won’t get the nominee in 2012.

m (6adec1) — 8/1/2010 @ 8:22 am

a few things about
Palin I dislike chief are
the Palin Cultists

ColonelHaiku (ac3c3c) — 8/1/2010 @ 9:34 am

pawlenty no go
Romney/Daniels good ticket
Palin work background

ColonelHaiku (ac3c3c) — 8/1/2010 @ 9:36 am

read bashing on hot
air make you think that all hope
is lost thats fer sure

ColonelHaiku (ac3c3c) — 8/1/2010 @ 9:38 am

Well Colonel, what some people call cultism is awareness of her actual record, on taxes, budgeting
and the like, tends to create kind of a pushback

ian cormac (6718a9) — 8/1/2010 @ 9:59 am

Colonel think that worst
bashing of other Repubs
from Cult of Palin

ColonelHaiku (ac3c3c) — 8/1/2010 @ 10:37 am

Palin I’d tap her
Newt blew it now in crapper
Romney close yapper

TimesDislaiku (aa2850) — 8/1/2010 @ 10:50 am

do you want to win?
if yes then dont waste your time
attacking Repubs

ColonelHaiku (ac3c3c) — 8/1/2010 @ 10:56 am

Go to rightosphere, or a few other sites, and you’ll
be dissabused of that notion

ian cormac (6718a9) — 8/1/2010 @ 10:57 am

Palin good speaker
connects with peeps but fan club
should think before speak

ColonelHaiku (ac3c3c) — 8/1/2010 @ 10:59 am

go hot air and weep
for future of R party
DailyKos-style yang

ColonelHaiku (ac3c3c) — 8/1/2010 @ 11:01 am

hot air forums sad
need thorough house cleaning and
de-lousing I think

ColonelHaiku (ac3c3c) — 8/1/2010 @ 11:02 am

Green Room has consistently better posts and threads
than Hot Air Classic

ian cormac (6718a9) — 8/1/2010 @ 11:17 am

Palin has a problem with independents but, as she said this morning, if all she knew about herself came from the main stream media, she wouldn’t like herself. either.

She has a year to show more expertise on issues that were not previously important to her. She needs to go to Israel and India and show some smarts.

If she doesn’t start doing that soon, after the election, she will be acknowledging she isn’t running.

Christie will be terrific in 2016. I think Romney has the strength of experience. The MassCare fiasco can be explained as a failed experiment. Romney could make that point with a good command of the data and explain why they tried it.

If he does not do something like that, he is toast. His wife’s health may also keep him out. She looked good when I saw her in 2008 but I think she has MS which waxes and wanes.

Mike K (0ef8c3) — 8/1/2010 @ 12:16 pm

Romney is sharpest
executive business
AND HE HONEST man

ColonelHaiku (537db7) — 8/1/2010 @ 1:11 pm

(If only there were a Paul Ryan/Chris Christie ticket. Now that would be something to actually get excited about.)

That would be my dream ticket, which means of course that it’ll never happen.

Dmac (d61c0d) — 8/1/2010 @ 1:37 pm

yes Mitt is the $h1t
HONEST multi millionaire
just needs a vision

TimesDislaiku (aa2850) — 8/1/2010 @ 2:49 pm

Comment by John Hitchcock — 7/31/2010 @ 9:49 pm

JH, Puget Sound is within (mostly) the State of Washington.

There are off-shore wells IIRC in the Prudhoe Bay area, but the floor there is relatively shallow.

AD - RtR/OS! (d51e57) — 8/1/2010 @ 3:09 pm

As one who does hardcore electoral statistics, I can tell you that Obama has the better hand of cards for 2012, no matter how you slice it.

The economy was actually taking another hit in 1936 as FDR firmly whipped Alf Landon 60-40.

In 1964, the economy was sputtering and the south was pissed off over the Civil Rights Act and still, LBJ won a massive landslide, 61-39 over Goldwater.

At this point in the game in 1982, Reagan’s numbers were even a tick lower than Obama’s are now. And Reagan came back to win a 58-42 landslide in 1984.

Bill Clinton’s numbers at this stage of the game in 1994 were under Obama’s, and his health care initiative had FAILED. The GOP of 1994 was also better organized than it is in 2010. And Clinton came back to trounce Bob Dole by 8 points in 1996.

GWB43 does not fit the re-election pattern as well. His popularity numbers were soaring after 9-11 and yet his re-election was a lean win against John Kerry, who (many do not know this fact) got the highest percentage of a losing candidate fighting against an incumbent in the entire history of the Union.

Winning percentage changes:

FDR increased his PV% by 3 points in 1936 over 1932.

Eisenhower increased his PV% by 2.2 points in 1956 over 1952.

We cannot compare Nixon correctly, as he went from a 3 man race in 1968 to a two man race in 1972.

Reagan increased his PV% by 8 points in 1984 over 1980. 1980 had a third party candidate (Anderson), who did get 6.6% of the PV ala Perot in 1996.

Clinton, in 2 three-man races, increased his PV% by 6 points in 1996 over 1992.

GWB43 increased his PV% by 3 points in 2004 over 2000.

FACIT:
Obama is poised to pick up between 3-5 points in 2012 and add 5 to 8 states to his column.

Only 4 times in 114 years has an incumbent been turned out of office, and in 3 of those four occasions, the incumbent was a republican:

Hoover in 1932
Ford in 1976
Carter in 1980
Bush 41 in 1992.

In most cases, the incumbent was re-elected and only in the case of Woodrow Wilson was his re-election win leaner than his initial win.

Many wish to compare Obama to Carter in the hope that he will also be a one term president, but statistically, the comparison to Ronald Reagan fits much better most of the time.

The 1st amendment guarantees us all the right to as much propaganda as we want. But demographic and electoral statistics tell me that the probability of Obama winning a LARGER landslide in 2012 than he won in 2008 is extremely high.

I did a complete statistical analysis to this in late 2007, here is the study.

bonncaruso (941dbc) — 8/6/2010 @ 4:59 pm

7/30/2010

An Early Look at 2012

93 Responses to “An Early Look at 2012”

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