Patterico's Pontifications

8/4/2015

Fox News 2016 GOP Debate Line-up

Filed under: General — Dana @ 9:11 pm



[guest post by Dana]

Fox News announced the list of candidates who earned a coveted slot at the debate this Thursday night. Based on an average of the latest five national polls, including Bloomberg, CBS, Fox News, Monmouth University and Quinnipiac University, here is the roster:

1. Businessman Donald Trump. Five-poll average: 23.4
2. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush: 12
3. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 10.2
4. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee: 6.6
5. Dr. Ben Carson: 5.8
6. Sen. Ted Cruz: 5.4
7. Sen. Marco Rubio: 5.4
8. Sen. Rand Paul: 4.8
9. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: 3.4
10. Ohio Gov. John Kasich: 3.2

Not making the cut:

Texas governor Rick Perry (at 1.8 percent), former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum (1.4), Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (1.4), businesswoman Carly Fiorina (1.3), Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C., 0.7), former New York governor George Pataki (0.6) and former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore (0.2).

If internet chatter dictated which subjects are considered most important to question candidates about, the Iran nuclear deal and Planned Parenthood would be at the top of the list.

How Trump will play out on stage is anybody’s guess.

–Dana

59 Responses to “Fox News 2016 GOP Debate Line-up”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (86e864)

  2. Abortion question for Trump: Since you were a long-time abortion supporter, giving money to advocacy groups and even sponsoring at least one fundraising event, but announdced your conversion to pro-life in 2011, can you tell us how much you have given to pro-life groups, and which ones, since then?

    Estragon (ada867)

  3. It’s a shame Carly Fiorina didn’t make the cut. I’ve seen her answer some challenging interview questions and she is sharp and takes on the tough questions directly and without fear. She was criticized by one journalist in a question about her leadership, or actually her lack thereof, as CEO of HP and she slayed the loaded question right then and there with facts and figures that stumped the antagonistic leftist journalist. I’d have liked to have seen her spar with the big boys of the GOP.

    K9Ranger (93714c)

  4. Bizarre. Huckabee flamed out early last time and has no coherent message. Carson is a total amateur. Kasich is pile of gruel.

    I really don’t know why Perry isn’t stronger, except possibly the in-state competition with Cruz; but that isn’t slowing down Bush and Rubio.

    Rich Rostrom (d2c6fd)

  5. Team republican should hand out waders for the rising b.s. that is about happen.
    A total embarrassment to conservatives.
    Want a healthy debate? Let Cruz and Walker sit in front of the camera and discuss America.
    team republican and the benchwarmer memorial debate.
    lmao

    mg (31009b)

  6. Why not do the debates in a bracket style? The two lowest-ranked candidates, George Pataki and Jim Gilmore, have a play-in debate, like the “First Four” of the NCAA Tournament. Then, the debates are one-on-one, using the poll ratings as initial seedings the way the tournament is held.

    Some of the debates would be blah: #15 Lindsey Graham vs #2 Jeb Bush and #12 Bobby Jindal vs #4 Mike Huckabee. It’s hard to see how #13 Rick Santorum could separate himself from #5 Ben Carson. I like Rick Perry, but at #11, he’ll have a tough time in a debate against #6 Ted Cruz. #9 Chris Christie vs #8 Rand Paul could be good.

    The sportsman Dana (f6a568)

  7. I really don’t know why Perry isn’t stronger

    just by the numbers it looks like Jindal and Perry should’ve flipped a coin to pick which one of them would run this time

    these boys screwed each other

    happyfeet (831175)

  8. Looking to the second round of the debates, we’d have the winner of Donald Trump/First Two play-in vs the winner between Chris Christie and Rand Paul; that could be a good one. And if Mario Rubio gets past John Kasich, he’d take on the winner between Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham, so Governor Rubio is in a good position.

    The sportsmanlike Dana (f6a568)

  9. Governor Rubio he wishes

    happyfeet (831175)

  10. The field is splintered right now because most people haven’t even really started thinking about it yet. That is why even a doofus like Jim Gilmore can get .02%. Asked to fill in the blank people just go eeny meeny.

    One can hope that in the aftermath of Thursday’s extravaganza, things will begin to clarify to some degree.

    Mark Johnson (5c2d01)

  11. Huckabee was mcccains right flank, went all the way to june, his team worked on bachmann’s and santorum’s last time.

    Dr. Evil already deep sized Perry and he doesn’t know it yet. Only question is who will the scapegoat be this time.

    narciso (ee1f88)

  12. why are petaki and gilmore, both of whom strike me at best as, Oh, i think I heard of him, even in it? just to make the field big and unwieldy? Is graham in it to try to win SC and give his delegates to someone as a deal?

    kasich is impressive as having won his last election impressively in swing state ohio, but i have this nagging suspicion about what he believes and stands for

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  13. a friend of mine, thinks it’s as favorite son candidates tp block challengers to the establishment,

    kasich believes in amnesty, common care and the medicaid expansion, that’s three strikes right there,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  14. The sportsman Dana (f6a568) — 8/5/2015 @ 3:51 am

    Everyone knows that I am no political junkie, but you have an exciting idea there! I can see myself filling out my predictions on a bracket form and following even the ho-hum debates. Fantasy politics anyone? Might as well.

    felipe (56556d)

  15. Does anyone have a current list of all the candidates fundraising amounts?

    EPWJ (d45e35)

  16. Fundraising lists are like icebergs, mostly under the surface.

    ropelight (583296)

  17. these boys screwed each other

    happyfeet (831175) — 8/5/2015 @ 4:09 am

    Which of them would you say has the wider stance?

    Seriously, can anyone name a party / election year combo that has less credible candidates?

    For people who say that their vote “doesn’t count,” remember that the Illinois Senate race of 2004, and the unsealing of some divorce records are ultimately responsible for this entire mess.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  18. I actually think Fiorina has a better opportunity to stand out at the second tier debate. The top ten will be clamoring to use a small and limited opportunity to distinguish themselves from the pack while being eclipsed by the brand that is Trump. And certainly Trump will be sucking all of the oxygen out of the room. As a result of sharing the stage with the celebrity of Trump, candidates will have a more difficult time getting out from under his shadow.

    In contrast, second-tier candidates will have more time to talk, no celebrity to contend with and less pressure to “perform”. With regard to Fiorina, she’s bound to shine next to Gilmore, Graham, Santorum, Pataki and even Jindal (who lacks any pizazz or charm or sense of authority – which may seem shallow, but it’s part of a nominees necessary package). It will be between Fiorina and Perry. Both of whom could do quite well with voters as a result…

    Dana (d2cc8d)

  19. whaaa?

    I think Team R is doing like a thousand times better than last time

    pizza boy and huckabee and that scary tardasil lady and weirdo mitt romney and the baby in a box guy and the utter pointlessness of pawlenty and who else

    there were more but I think i’m repressing some of it

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  20. Dana, I really like the bracket idea. Since cable news covers politics like sports anyway, it is a great fit.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  21. oh.

    newt.

    goodness gracious it’s hard to get nostalgic

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  22. probably she shined at the earlier shindig, whereas as Perry well he’s doing better than last time, but he was on pain medication then, so no excuse now,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  23. Democrat, 2008, Barack Obama vs Hillary Clinton.

    ropelight (583296)

  24. feets, thanks for the reality check. (shudder)

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  25. in retrospect, most had something to consider, cain was kneecapped by axelrod, bachmann was probably being encouraged on an umproductive path by rollins, but also team huck, an

    narciso (ee1f88)

  26. it’s sad (pathetic sad not poignant sad) cause of the 2012 election was like a million times more important than this next one

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  27. cain was kneecapped by his chippies if i remember right

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  28. Clinton in the 90’s ran first for office there was a Zoo of people, Jackson, Gore, That Idiot Gov of California, the Speaker of the House, Harkin, Tsongas, Wilder, The other Kerrey, and a host of minor players – I think the first debate where they all were sitting in uncomfortable chairs (cleverly mimicked in the first Men in Black movie) is where Clinton looked comfortable calm and the rest were just miserable.

    And this was without the glaring microphone of social media

    EPWJ (d45e35)

  29. ironically, the eventual ‘electable’ nominee didn’t think it was that important,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  30. yeah he was kind of a dud huh

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  31. It’s a shame Carly Fiorina didn’t make the cut

    Yes and Huckabee is a fool but there is a segment of the GOP that will support him just like Democrats support Bernie.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  32. yes, and I described his function in the previous campaign,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  33. Rich Rostrom (d2c6fd) — 8/5/2015 @ 12:28 am

    I really don’t know why Perry isn’t stronger, except possibly the in-state competition with Cruz; but that isn’t slowing down Bush and Rubio. Bush and Rubio have more support outside of their home state. Rubio actually may be getting most of the ‘favorite son’ Florida support.

    Although not too much should be read into support. Most people polled probably would have prefered not to name a first choice. And half of them or more probably didn’t even recognize the name of more than three or four candidates. The “support” is not even inch-deep.

    Pataki does so bad, even though he comes from New York, because there’s also Donald Trump (somewhat more locally famous) and Christie. Kasich does so well, even though he never campaigned, or got nto the news recently, because Ohio has about 4% of the nation’s population – and that’s enough to get into tenth place. Carly Fiorina does so badly, because she never was elected, and probably isn’t very well known even in California. It’s also because defeated candidtes like Santorum and Perry, don’t come out as first thoughts, even when there’s a multiple choice list..

    Sammy Finkelman (8bf66e)

  34. Rich Rostrom (d2c6fd) — 8/5/2015 @ 12:28 am

    I really don’t know why Perry isn’t stronger, except possibly the in-state competition with Cruz; but that isn’t slowing down Bush and Rubio.

    Bush and Rubio have more support outside of their home state. Rubio actually may be getting most of the ‘favorite son’ Florida support.

    Although not too much should be read into support. Most people polled probably would have prefered not to name a first choice. And half of them or more probably didn’t even recognize the name of more than three or four candidates. The “support” is not even inch-deep.

    Pataki does so bad, even though he comes from New York, because there’s also Donald Trump (somewhat more locally famous) and Christie. Kasich does so well, even though he never campaigned, or got nto the news recently, because Ohio has about 4% of the nation’s population – and that’s enough to get into tenth place. Carly Fiorina does so badly, because she never was elected, and probably isn’t very well known even in California. It’s also because defeated candidtes like Santorum and Perry, don’t come out as first thoughts, even when there’s a multiple choice list..

    Sammy Finkelman (8bf66e)

  35. I really don’t know why Perry isn’t stronger

    There’s three, but I can’t remember what they are.

    No, really. This is ingrained, and if anyone missed it, candidate Perry would see that clip running 24/7. And the media would be ruthless-er.

    Just as Jindal will never get over his first impression of a droner, reading a committee’s droning speech on national TV. (Hint to aspiring national candidates, avoid doing this.)

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  36. The southern border and Iran should be the top two topics. #5 mg, I am with you

    bald01 (f38852)

  37. I think they forgave him for that, but the Schmidt plan shot himself in both feet,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  38. I like Dana’s idea of brackets, but why not have ideological brackets? We could have several smaller debates: Social Conservative, Tea Party, Establishment, etc, with questions asked by a panel of their peers. See who the real champions of the various wings are, then let them compete.

    That way I don’t have to watch Santorum and Huckabee.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  39. well,maybe something like dana’s suggestion will emerge and the “losers” of the top ten will drop out and the “winners” of the bottom will graduate to the top tier

    narciso (ee1f88) — 8/5/2015 @ 6:44 am
    yes, I’ve heard him say things about how Christian it is for the givernment (hah, freudian typo!), I mean government to provide welfare benefits and ignoring down the road implications.

    Common Core is a bit confusing to me, a bit like the Southern politician and the “are you for or against whiskey” question. If you mean a commonly recognized standard to have as a baseline for education under local control, it’s great; if you mean another way for the feds to dictate a PC indoctrination of the nation’s children, then not so much; and if one doesn’t acknowledge a difference, they are part of the problem.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  40. As for questions, I want to ask this one: “The current DoJ has shamelessly looked the other way as widespread criminal behavior has erupted throughout the administration and its agencies. Would your DoJ finally investigate and prosecute the worst of these, or would you just want to move on?”

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  41. the first generation of constructivist templates, failed miserably, the stats belie but you what Disraeli said about that,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  42. good question, kevin.

    I think we should resurrect some old slogans and apply them today, like
    “No justice for all, No justice at all”

    and did you realize that the old line, “Never trust anyone over 30″ disappeared quite some time ago, like when those who said it got to be over thirty…
    I am sure Obama as a youth joined the “Question Authority” crowd,
    then when he became the authority, he tells college students that it is absurd for someone to say you can’t trust the givernment. (I did it again!!)

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  43. ‘speaking truth to power’ became crime think awfully fast,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  44. This is a link to the current FEC presidential campaign donation summary:

    http://www.fec.gov/press/summaries/2016/tables/presidential/presreceipts_2015_q2.pdf

    The FEC also has this page that shows where the donations come from:

    http://www.fec.gov/disclosurep/pnational.do

    If you click on a candidate name, the interactive map will show you where the candidate’s donations come from. And if you use the search tool, you can see who donated by zip code (at least the first 3 digits, 981 for example) or town, or name. This is pretty interesting. The number and amount given to Hillary! in Seattle is sobering. If Republicans had the same level of interest, it would change the game completely.

    bobathome (f50725)

  45. Debate groups I want to see:

    Huckabee, Santorum, Carson and Trump. Moderators: James Dobson, Sean Hannity and Mark Levin

    Bush, Christie, Kasich, Pataki and Graham. Moderators: Tucker Carlson, Kristin Powers and Jennifer Rubin

    Cruz, Walker, Gilmore, Fiorino, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Perry. Moderators: Greg Gutfield, Charles Krauthammer and Megyn Kelley.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  46. Although having a debate with just Trump and a panel of Hannity, Krauthammer and George Will might be fun.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  47. On the right side of the interactive panel for the individual candidates there is a summary of donation amount by the size of the donation. The largest category for Cruz’s donations is the small donor group, $6.7 million, followed by the large donor group (over $2000) totalling $6.0 million. Bush raised just $0.4 million from small donations, and $9.8 million from the $2000+ donor group. Cruz will win the yard sign war.

    These amounts do not include the equally important donations to PACs supporting the candidates. I haven’t seen this data in an equivalent form. Although there have been press reports. If someone has a link, it would be very interesting.

    bobathome (f50725)

  48. It’s a shame Carly Fiorina didn’t make the cut

    In my bracket, I have her at #14, going up against Scott Walker at #3. Two people who actually understand something about how the economy works, but with Mr Walker already running hard on his record, she’ll be hard pressed to defend her tenure at Hewlitt-Packard. I think that Mrs Fiorina might be able to out-debate Mr Walker — not that he’s a slouch — but he has a better record of accomplishment.

    The second round would have the winner of Walker/Fiorina taking on the winner of #6 Tec Cruz and # 11 Rick Perry. :)

    The oddsmaker Dana (f6a568)

  49. Heh. A little while back, I had this text exchange with my daughter:
    Me: Question authority.
    Daughter: Why?
    Me: That’s my girl!
    Daughter: Oh, I get it.

    nk (dbc370)

  50. “Dissension is patriotic” came and went as well,
    though odds are it will return quickly as soon as a Repub. is elected President.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  51. Absolutely love the bracket idea. Dana, pure genius.

    Steve Malynn (6b1ce5)

  52. I like the bracket idea, too.
    But a duel would serve the country better.

    mg (31009b)

  53. “It’s a shame Carly Fiorina didn’t make the cut.”
    The media has done it’s best to ignore Fiorina, because the fact that she’s a woman destroys the only selling point Hillary has. They’ve done there best to pump up Trump because he sucks all the oxygen out of the room for the other Republicans, and he has decades of statements on every topic under the sun to attack.

    Mike Giles (f0cdc4)

  54. I wonder if Trump will be asked about Bill Clinton urging him to run, as the Wapo reports.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-presidential-primary/250356-report-bill-clinton-called-trump-ahead-of-campaign

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  55. Allegedly, where is the proof?

    narciso (ee1f88)

  56. Just as Jindal will never get over his first impression of a droner, reading a committee’s droning speech on national TV. (Hint to aspiring national candidates, avoid doing this.)

    Bill Clinton first appeared nationally,at a Democratic convention where he gave the longest and most boring as speech of the week, and was remembered for it. Four years later he again spoke at a Democratic convention, this time as nominee. So long boring speeches are not always an impediment.

    In Jindal’s case, the obstacle is more likely a bad to mediocre record as governor. He is in fact the weakest among the candidates who are or have been governors (Walker, Perry, Bush, Kasich, etc.)

    kishnevi (91d5c6)

  57. Jindal’s hobbled cause of he dabbled in exorcisms when he was little

    it’s not fair but it makes him a bad investment

    happyfeet (831175)

  58. lol pooty poot’s gonna be so mad when he finds out he scored less than planned parenthood

    vladmeister’s losing his touch

    happyfeet (831175)


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