Patterico's Pontifications

5/5/2012

Whither the Hispanic vote?

Filed under: General — Karl @ 8:53 am

[Posted by Karl]

Ronald Brownstein asks whether Hispanic immigration trends will hurt Obama in 2012, and comes up with the relatively obvious answer that they will not, as new immigrants are a tiny part of the electorate in any given year. The so-called experts agree that immigration trends are a longer-term issue (though we should note that at least one of the so-called experts quoted by Brownstein was late to notice that immigration from Mexico is drying up). Some will be concerned that illegal immigration from Mexico will rise again when the US economy recovers. However, as Michael Barone notes, Mexico’s population growth has slowed way down and Mexico has had a stronger economic recovery from the global recession than the US experienced. The more cheeky might suggest Brownstein’s question is backward: Obama hurt immigration more than immigration hurts Obama.

Nevertheless, Brownstein’s article ends up noting the more interesting medium-term questions involve younger and future generations of Hispanics already here and automatically eligible to vote. Democrats rely on straight-line projections of growth in this demographic as part of their Emerging Democratic Majority theory. However, as Steve Malanga suggested after the 2008 election, the economy is a big part of the Hispanic vote, just like it is to everyone else:

Why has the GOP been unable to make more headway among Hispanics? One answer has to do with income. As political scientist Andrew Gelman notes in his new book, Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State, lower-income voters continue to vote disproportionately Democratic, despite a popular notion among pundits that many of them have shifted to the GOP for cultural reasons. That fact suggests that Hispanics—nearly half of whom live in households whose earnings fall in the country’s bottom two income quintiles—would naturally trend Democratic. And in fact, in the McCain-Obama contest, 83 percent of Hispanic voters with annual incomes of $15,000 or less voted for Obama, as did 71 percent of those earning between $15,000 and $30,000. By contrast, 51 percent of those with household incomes between $150,000 and $200,000 voted for McCain.

Sean Trende makes a similar point in his recent book, The Lost Majority, while also noting that if the Democrats decide to pander heavily to Hispanics on issues like immigration, they risk losses among other groups.

The latest data crunched by the Pew Hispanic Center suggests successive generations of Hispanic youth are catching up economically. Indeed, later generations are already marginally more likely to identify themselves as Americans first (and even more likely to identify as white). A pause in illegal immigration may allow for even swifter assimilation. That would be good for America generally and Hispanics in particular, but perhaps much less good for the Democratic Party.

As for the short-term, Brownstein reports that while there will be 22-24 million Hispanics eligible to vote this year:

Hispanic registration is not keeping pace. The number of Hispanics registered to vote grew from 9.3 to 11.6 million from 2004 to 2008. But in 2010, Hispanic registrations declined to 10.9 million, according to Antonio Gonzalez, president of the William C. Velasquez Institute, which studies Hispanic political participation.

***

At one point, Gonzalez predicted that 12 million Hispanics would vote in 2012, up from just under 10 million in 2008 and about 7.6 million in 2004. Now he thinks it unlikely to reach such a peak. While there will be a “surge” in Hispanic voter registration this year, Gonzalez says, it will begin from the depressed level it reached after 2010. And that ultimately will yield a harvest of around 11 million Hispanic voters this fall, and possibly less, he says. Concerted registration and turnout efforts from Democrats likely will enlarge Hispanic participation in a few key states, especially Southwestern states like Arizona and Nevada, but unless something changes, Gonzalez predicts, “We won’t be turbocharged as a national electorate.”

Again, less than ideal for the Democrats.

–Karl

Comments (141)

141 Responses to “Whither the Hispanic vote?”

Ding!
Karl (6f7ecd) — 5/5/2012 @ 8:54 am
The GOP should be getting a size able chunk of the Hispanic vote, but we keep alienating them at every turn. We need to learn from the California GOP of the 1980s and 1990s. That said, team Romney is doubtless now going to backpedal like mad on all the tough on immigration stuff he said during the nomination, but I doubt it will help much this cycle. Perry has the right approach, but he was booed for it at the debates (you know, when a bunch of morons shot us in the foot, leaving us with Romney).
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 9:06 am
Or, what he said: http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-oe-schwarzenegger-gop-needs-to-be-more-inclusiv-20120506,0,178448.story
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 9:15 am
The “we”s and “us”s fool no one, concern troll.
elissa (18d8d7) — 5/5/2012 @ 9:19 am
what she said.
Colonel Haiku (f36c14) — 5/5/2012 @ 10:14 am
The “ex”migration will hurt obama as many of the democrat voters will be back in Mexico by November.
Jim (bd60ff) — 5/5/2012 @ 10:36 am
In the long run, once the border issue is settled and the illegals either assimilate or leave, the GOP stands to get a good chunk of immigrant Hispanic votes. Hispanics are mostly Catholic and like all immigrants self-selected for hard work and willingness to risk, all of which play to Republican values.

Yes, the immigration issue will hurt, but Obama’s attacks on the Catholic Church may hurt more. Even if assimilated Hispanics have liberal attitudes about birth control and abortion, they very much dislike attacks on their church — the major institution in their lives.

Rather than waffle directly on immigration (not that Romney won’t), a better early path might be for the House to pass the military-service part of the DREAM Act and see if the Dems dare to oppose it. Pretty much win-win, and there’s not a lot of Republican opposition to gaining a path to citizenship by serving in the military.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 10:48 am
What Kevin said, adding that Latinos generally are ALSO social conservatives. IMHO the only reason they’re not republicans is because republicans shoo them away.

And what’s a “concern troll”? This I gotta hear!
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:02 am
It would be interesting to see how the pollsters project Hispanic voter participation by income level.
Personally, I think it is a given that higher income Hispanics, particularly if they are in secure relationships (married-with children), will have higher turnouts than the lower income levels/singles. Just as the $150-200K demographic broke for McCain in ’08, it will again break GOP in ’12, perhaps dragging quite a few of the next several demo’s down the ladder along with it as those demographics see the damage that a continuation of Obama policies will bring.

And Alex, what you don’t know about the GOP would fill volumes of the E-B, if they still printed it.
AD-RtR/OS! (10796a) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:03 am
9: what is your opinion based on? That is your opinion about me? I would love to know…
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:05 am
By your writings shall we know thee.
AD-RtR/OS! (10796a) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:06 am
11: ok, so tell me what? Show me the “writings” in question please.
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:23 am
Alex, denying you are a troll? Ah, but you are so convincing in your lame denials.
SPQR (26be8b) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:29 am
Really, these personal attacks have got to end. How about addressing the article? Jeeez…
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:36 am
If we don’t police the borders, illegal immigrants will stop coming of their own accord. When living here is worse that living there.

All of the gutless, corrupt politicians ruined a good thing.
tyree (84087f) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:57 am
Racists.
JD (318f81) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:59 am
No sane society believes it is not critical that said society – and it alone – determines how many skilled workers are requirded and should be allowed entry into the country through legal means only. Illegal entry must be fought tooth and nail.

Non-citizens do not have a right (human or otherwise) to our economy or our resources. That’s just the way it needs to be, no ifs, ands or buts. Anything else is suicide and it’s only a matter of time before a collapse if rational thinking in this are doesn’t prevail.
Colonel Haiku (f36c14) — 5/5/2012 @ 12:07 pm
~~requirded~~ required
Colonel Haiku (f36c14) — 5/5/2012 @ 12:09 pm
area… sheeeeeeeeesh!
Colonel Haiku (f36c14) — 5/5/2012 @ 12:10 pm
Burma Shave
Colonel Haiku (f36c14) — 5/5/2012 @ 12:11 pm
Mexico’s demographic trends suggest that illegal immigration will soon end. It would end faster if Mexico had a functioning government. There is another trend that is unnoticed. A lot of American retirees are moving to Mexico, as well as Costa Rica and Guatemala. They stay away from the border areas and the legal stud is iffy, especially near the ocean but there are lots of them.
Mike K (326cba) — 5/5/2012 @ 12:19 pm
legal status
Mike K (326cba) — 5/5/2012 @ 12:19 pm
Deport 20 million illegals and we won’t have to worry about the great Latino wave sweeping the country.
rssg (11c30d) — 5/5/2012 @ 12:20 pm
later generations are already marginally more likely to identify themselves as Americans first

even if they’re asked to identify themselves in relation to a baby-faced Cubano-Americano Romney toady?

I really wonder
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 5/5/2012 @ 12:38 pm
i’m curious to know though if flagrant obamawhore Gloria Estefan would endorse one of her own on the ticket or stick with president fruitless
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 5/5/2012 @ 12:44 pm
And what’s a “concern troll”? This I gotta hear!
Comment by Alex — 5/5/2012 @ 11:02 am

— Comedy gold, that ^^^.
Icy (1b8eb0) — 5/5/2012 @ 1:09 pm
I think that, as the party of white people, we ought to focus on courting the White Hispanic vote.
Icy (1b8eb0) — 5/5/2012 @ 1:13 pm
Really, these personal attacks have got to end. How about addressing the article? Jeeez…
Comment by Alex — 5/5/2012 @ 11:36 am

— Pot meet kettle: Please cite ONE hate crime law in the US that specifies “protected class” as the criteria for being charged under said law.
Icy (1b8eb0) — 5/5/2012 @ 1:18 pm
Deport 20 million illegals

Won’t happen. But, whatever we do with some illegals, others will stay and their children will become voters. How, practically does the Republican Party deal with people who are descended from people who risked everything for the mere hope of upward mobility?

These are natural Republicans: church-going, culturally conservative, hard working, upwardly mobile, family-oriented and striving. The Dems would pervert them into state-owned chattel, trading stable misery for votes like LBJ did with blacks.

African-Americans are lost to Republicans for at least another generation, but not so Hispanics. W knew that, most border-state Republicans know that, but apparently the further away from the border one gets, the less this opportunity seems important.

I don’t know Alex, but he is absolutely right about Prop 187 and Gov Wilson: before that election Hispanics voted majority Republican, after that not so much. Hispanics are natural Repbulicans and we need to find a way — while fixing the border and rewriting immigration laws — to make the relationship work.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 1:23 pm
with Americans becoming disabled at an exponential rate we need our immigrant friends more than ever
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 5/5/2012 @ 1:29 pm
“W knew that, most border-state Republicans know that, but apparently the further away from the border one gets, the less this opportunity seems important.”

Kevin M – Fatuous nonsense. Distance from the border doesn’t mean squat in terms of evaluating the issue. Deciding on what is right for the country rather than votes is the real issue.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 5/5/2012 @ 1:43 pm
i want to call something fatuous nonsense today
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 5/5/2012 @ 1:49 pm
Daley: All politics is local.

W, Perry, Paul, McCain, and apparently Rubio are all from border states and all favor some form of accommodation of illegals. There are few northern Republicans willing to take such a position.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 1:55 pm
Kevin M – Fatuous nonsense. Distance from the border doesn’t mean squat in terms of evaluating the issue. Deciding on what is right for the country rather than votes is the real issue

Bullshit, Daley. Being Latino myself and spending a great deal of time in both South Texas and Chicago, what KevinM says is right on the money. Most of the whites I know in south Texas are much more understanding of the nature of migration of people across the boarder and try to find a middle ground like Bush did. Its guys like you who live in Evanston, IL who don’t get it.
Ipso Fatso (7434b9) — 5/5/2012 @ 2:20 pm
Kevin, you are spot on!
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 2:33 pm
The difference is 1) ~~they know~~ they’re pretty sure I’m not a troll, and 2) I’m supporting Romney as the nominee and see no point in trying to drive wedge issues to undermine him.

Your original post calls makes Romney wrong no matter what he does and attacks him as the nominee, which strikes everyone as a bit moby-ish.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 2:49 pm
_______________________________________________

Some will be concerned that illegal immigration from Mexico will rise again when the US economy recovers.

Probably so, if only because Mexico for decades and decades — generation after generation — has been trapped with various forms of serious mediocrity, including underwhelming academic traits, Third-World-level slums and, now more than ever, dark-ages type of crime, as linked at today’s drudgereport:

wtop.com: A wave of violence in Mexico has led to a string of gruesome discoveries. The bodies of nine people were found hanging from a bridge in Nuevo Laredo, Mexico, just 6 miles from the U.S. border. Five were men and four women. All of the victims showed signs of torture. Their hands were tied and their eyes covered, sources tell WTOP.

Mexican authorities say they also discovered 14 headless bodies stuffed into black bags and left inside a van. Fourteen heads were later found outside the mayor’s office, preserved in ice boxes.

The bodies of three Mexican journalists were discovered Thursday afternoon in the state of Veracruz. They had been dismembered and stuffed into black plastic bags dumped into a waste canal. At least seven current and former reporters and photographers have been slain in Veracruz over the last 18 months.

^ And such horrors apparently have not affected in the slightest the nonsensical political trends throughout much of Mexico. IOW, that country is sort of a southern version of the city of Detroit, in which no matter how bad socio-economics become or remain, a large majority of the populace blindly favors left-leaning politicians, policies and organizations.

But for an even more extreme example of how a society can become quite jaded to what’s going on all around it, one need only ponder the history of pre-modern Mexico, which is not all that long ago or ancient—meaning around the era of European exploration:

latinamericanstudies.org, Michael Harner: On the morning of November 8, 1519, a small band of bearded, dirty, exhausted Spanish adventurers stood at the edge of a great inland lake in central Mexico, staring in disbelief at the sight before them. Rising from the center of the lake was a magnificent island city…Tenochtitlán, the capital of the Aztec empire, now known as Mexico City.

Slightly more than a year and half later, in the early summer of 1521, it was a glimpse of hell… As Bernal Díaz later described it: “…when we looked at the tall cue [temple-pyramid]…we saw our comrades who had been captured in Cortés defeat being dragged up the steps to be sacrificed… Then after [having been made to dance] the papas [Aztec priests] laid them down on their backs on some narrow stones of sacrifice and, cutting open their chests, drew out their palpitating hearts which they offered to the idols before them.”

No human society known to history approached that of the Aztecs in the quantities of people offered as religious sacrifices: 20,000 a year is a common estimate.

In 1946 Sherburne Cook, a demographer specializing in American Indian populations, estimated an over-all annual mean of 15,000 victims in a central Mexican population reckoned at two million. Later, however, he and his colleague Woodrow Borah revised his estimate of the total central Mexican population upward to 25 million. Recently, Borah, possibly the leading authority on the demography of Mexico at the time of the conquest, has also revised the estimated number of persons sacrificed in central Mexico in the fifteenth century to 250,000 per year, equivalent to one percent of the total population.

These enormous numbers call for consideration of what the Aztecs did with the bodies after the sacrifices. Evidence of Aztec cannibalism has been largely ignored or consciously or unconsciously covered up. For example, the major twentieth-century books on the Aztecs barely mention it; others bypass the subject completely. Probably some modern Mexicans and anthropologists have been embarrassed by the topic…

A search of the sixteenth-century literature, however, leaves no doubt as to the prevalence of cannibalism among the central Mexicans. The Spanish conquistadores wrote amply about it, as did several Spanish priests who engaged in ethnological research on Aztec culture shortly after the conquest.

Most of the sacrifices involved tearing out the heart, offering it to the sun and, with some blood, also to the idols. The corpse was then tumbled down the steps of the pyramid and carried off to be butchered. The head went on the local skull rack, displayed in central plazas alongside the temple-pyramids… Later, at a feast given at the captor’s quarters, the central dish was a stew of tomatoes, peppers, and the limbs of his victim. The remaining torso, in Tenochtitlán at least, went to the royal zoo where it was used to feed carnivorous mammals, birds, and snakes.
Mark (dd3927) — 5/5/2012 @ 2:59 pm
Kevin @33: the ‘what-to-do’ with illegals can be decided after the securing of the border; even W wanted that first
Lord Nazh (821ae1) — 5/5/2012 @ 3:06 pm
_____________________________________________

before that election Hispanics voted majority Republican, after that not so much.

Other than a percentage of the Cuban-exile community in Florida, are you sure about that?

Do the people in nations like Mexico and Venezuela tilt left, time and time again, because of what? Because of their versions of Proposition 187 or anti-illegal-immigration controversies?

Leftist sentiment is a human trait, possibly innate in the way it affects various people, and it therefore can easily defy logic, reason and reality.
Mark (dd3927) — 5/5/2012 @ 3:06 pm
35 so Kevin, are you stating that there are a number of undecided/independent types on here that have not yet decided between voting for Romney or Obama? And that if I (or anyone) were to post anything other than praise for Romney, we would risk driving these people to voting for Obama?
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 3:10 pm
Kevin M – you’re on drugs. GOP, Bush/Rove drugs.

Enforce the law, which means deportation.
jpc (11c30d) — 5/5/2012 @ 3:30 pm
The majority of the American people not only want illegal aliens deported, they want LEGAL immigration reduced. What part of that don’t you Mexican cheerleadersunderstand and why don’t you respect the will of the American people?

The brutal truth is most non-white people (when they become citizens), vote Democrat.
rssg (11c30d) — 5/5/2012 @ 3:43 pm
Rssg is objectively racist.

Alex is a concern troll.
JD (d4dd44) — 5/5/2012 @ 3:52 pm
Kev has accused others of being “trolls”, blah blah blah and he came to his current support of Romney as the nominee, the hard way: kicking and screaming, yada yada yada…
Colonel Haiku (8f3781) — 5/5/2012 @ 3:53 pm
And they are both liars.
JD (d4dd44) — 5/5/2012 @ 3:53 pm
#37. Did I say otherwise? See, for example #7.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 3:56 pm
rssg–will you link us to whatever reputable data you have which supports your assertion that the majority of Americans want legal immigration reduced? I don’t believe such data exists, BTW.
elissa (18d8d7) — 5/5/2012 @ 3:56 pm
Enforce the law, which means deportation.

Not enough boxcars.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 3:57 pm
E-Verify, limiting the right to vote to U.S. citizens and photo ID before voting works for me.
Colonel Haiku (8f3781) — 5/5/2012 @ 4:05 pm
Matter of fact (once the border is secured), it might be wise to change current immigration law to allow for more legal immigration from Mexico than other countries. If you tell folks to stand in line, the line HAS to move.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 4:07 pm
E-Verify, limiting the right to vote to U.S. citizens and photo ID before voting works for me.

Well, E-Verify is run by the same people who mailed Mohammad Atta a green card in 2002, so I’m not so sure I trust that. But the rest, sure. It’s pretty bad when I have to admit that the DMV is a far better bureaucracy than the federal ICE.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 4:11 pm
Mestizo (aks Mexicans have been numero uno in LEGAL and ILLEGAL immigrations for decades now.

Mexico – the most wonderful country Mexicans don’t want to live in!
rssg (11c30d) — 5/5/2012 @ 4:13 pm
We should deport all illegal aliens, no matter where they are from. No special exceptions for Mexicans or Irish or Mooooslims or anyone.

Deportation.
brucet (11c30d) — 5/5/2012 @ 4:14 pm
The average immigrant into the US over the past 25 yrs or so, is a grade school educated, Spanish speaking Latino.

— Latinos are chronically poor performers academically.
— Latinos are notorious for out of wedlock, teen pregnancy.
— Latinos have a very high drop-out rate from high school.
— Latinos have a very high rate of gang membership.
— Latinos vote roughly 75% for liberal Democrats.

Tell me again why we should admit more?
jppc (11c30d) — 5/5/2012 @ 4:23 pm
Oh, Happy Sink Hole de Mayo!!!
jppc (11c30d) — 5/5/2012 @ 4:24 pm
There seem to be quite a new “new” commenters here this afternoon with an agenda. (Or old commenters with new names who have an agenda.)
elissa (18d8d7) — 5/5/2012 @ 4:39 pm
Elissa – shockingly, the “new” ones always seem to be concern trolls or Kilgore trouts.
JD (318f81) — 5/5/2012 @ 4:52 pm
A “new agenda” Elissa or someone who is very well informed on the topic of immigration? Out of arguments? Ill informed? Believe immigration cheerleader nonsense?

Get informed about US immigration history, past and present. You’ll be surprised it’s not exactly what the schools, the media and the DNC and RNC tell ya.
jppc (11c30d) — 5/5/2012 @ 5:15 pm
jppc–posting gross generalization stereotypes with no supporting documentation such as you did above is generally not the signature mark of a person who “is very well informed on the topic” and who hopes to inform and educate others. Please think of this as a helpful hint.
elissa (18d8d7) — 5/5/2012 @ 5:33 pm
rssg is more likely another Media Matters / LGF plant.
SPQR (26be8b) — 5/5/2012 @ 5:50 pm
There seem to be quite a new “new” commenters here this afternoon with an agenda.

Classic Mobys — projecting the racism they expect but do not see. Much like the guys at Tea Party rallies carrying racist signs about Obama.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:00 pm
he came to his current support of Romney as the nominee, the hard way: kicking and screaming

Indeed. But the point of a party is to have the family fight THEN support the family decision. And if your side happens to win the fight, part of that consensus is a duty not to gloat. Some do that part better than others.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:09 pm
Funny… I don’t look at it as my side. It’s our side. And there’s no gloating involved. I’ve been thrilled to see your comments in support of our presumptive nominee.
Colonel Haiku (c350fa) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:12 pm
And I truly believe we are all united in the fight to vote the current Oval Office occupant out.

A second term would be disastrous, indeed it would be ~~whithering~~ withering.
Colonel Haiku (c350fa) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:18 pm
I’d say fatal.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:20 pm
58: yep, me too

61: Exactly!
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:26 pm
“W, Perry, Paul, McCain, and apparently Rubio are all from border states and all favor some form of accommodation of illegals.”

Kevin M – Look at how popular McCain’s comprehensive immigration plan was with the public in 2007. Rick Perry proved out of step with the Republican base last year. Arizona is a border state yet has different policies than Texas. Dr. Demento thinks border fences keep Americans in rather than illegals out.

So apart from insulting people who don’t live in border states, I’ve got no freaking idea what point you are trying to make other than spewing fatuous nonsense.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:33 pm
66: he is not “trying” to make a point, he succeeded. It wasn’t difficult to grasp, though grasping doesn’t mean you have to agree. The point was Border state politicians realize they have to be pragmatic on immigration, something many learned the hard way over the years. Politicians in non-border states may want to learn from past errors, rather than repeating them.
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:38 pm
Tell me again why we should admit more?

Comment by jppc — 5/5/2012 @ 4:23 pm

Because they’re cleaning out your mama’s gutters while you’re sitting on your fat, pimpled a** blogging on the internet connection your mama is paying for?
nk (875f57) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:41 pm
68: snort! Well played sir!
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:43 pm
Wadda, daleyrocks? Kevin M, now?
nk (875f57) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:44 pm
“The point was Border state politicians realize they have to be pragmatic on immigration, something many learned the hard way over the years.”

Alex – Please explain the differences in pragmatic approaches taken by Arizona and Texas to make your point. Go.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:45 pm
And sometimes pragmatic, when the Feds twiddle their thumbs, is something like Arizona did. Which is not to put Hispanic citizens on cattle cars to Mexico as the Dems would portray it, but simply to force the Feds to deal with each and every illegal resident the state runs across. Strategic co-operation.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:45 pm
Please stay, Alex. Believe me, Patterico does not run an echo chamber.

Ad hominem does get your sitting place kicked. (I don’t mind, my a** is a small target.)
nk (875f57) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:47 pm
“The point was Border state politicians realize they have to be pragmatic on immigration, something many learned the hard way over the years.”

Alex – Are you aware that six out of the top 10 states with the highest estimated population of illegal immigrants are not border states?
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 5/5/2012 @ 6:55 pm
IF all these illegal immigrants from Mexico were to claim they’re actually 1/32nd Cherokee, maybe they could get jobs teaching at Harvard ! But just as long as they don’t check the box that says, “I’m a blind anti-abortion dissident from China.”

…because the Democrats don’t give affirmative action brownie points to “those” types !
Elephant Stone (0ae97d) — 5/5/2012 @ 7:10 pm
Heh. That’s good, Elephant Stone. I’ve only been slightly amused by Alex, but you have significantly raised the bar.
Dana (4eca6e) — 5/5/2012 @ 7:15 pm
74: what six states?
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 7:27 pm
Just exactly what makes a blind Chinaman worth having in America? As opposed to a hard-working young Mexican?

It’s a serious question.
nk (875f57) — 5/5/2012 @ 7:33 pm
Thanks, Dana.

I’m just trying to tread water alongside the rapier wit of Colonel Haiku and Daleyrocks.
Elephant Stone (0ae97d) — 5/5/2012 @ 7:33 pm
Crickets have come early.
nk (875f57) — 5/5/2012 @ 7:43 pm
NK,

1)the blind dissident from China is seeking political asylum in the United States as protection from his own government which has specifically targeted him and his family

2)I have no idea who the specific hard-working Mexican ILLEGAL immigrant is who you have referred to, but we’re dealing with specific individuals, not “composite” illegals, if I may borrow that terminology from ~~Bill Ayers~~ Barack Obama.

3)the blind dissident from China is seeking political asylum in a legal manner. Again, the operative word is “legal.” I’m sure there are zillions of hard-working people in every corner of the earth (not just Mexico) who would love to come to the USA, however, we cannot afford to import them all.

4)Just once, I’d like to hear some of the pro-illegal-immigration factions blatantly screaming that America is the best country on the planet, and that’s why everyone wants to come here. I’d like to hear them bragging about American Exceptionalism BEFORE they play the “you’re a hater !” card. I mean, if we’re such a horrible racist xenophobic country, then why in God’s name would all these people from every corner of the earth want to move here to live next door to people who allegedly hate them ?

5)You don’t see Jews climbing the fence to go live in Egypt. You know why ? Because the anti-Semitism in Egypt is REAL.
Elephant Stone (0ae97d) — 5/5/2012 @ 7:49 pm
Mr. Chen, Welcome to America.

Dana (4eca6e) — 5/5/2012 @ 8:06 pm
“74: what six states?”

Alex – Do some homework, Cupcake.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 5/5/2012 @ 9:20 pm
Way way way off topic…

My sister went into labor tonight, and that’s about a month too soon. The doctors say there’s a good chance the baby will make be okay (they’re trying to slow down the labor, but not too successful on that front) but just in case, there seem to be a bunch of the praying type here.

So please, if you’re praying anyway, throw one up for Sharon (mom) and Dominic (baby).
I appreciate it.
Ghost (6f9de7) — 5/5/2012 @ 9:34 pm
83: I did. Can’t find any truth to the statement. Can u help? Just tell us five of the six… Ok? Go…
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 9:43 pm
I prayed for Sharon and Dominic to be protected, safe, and healthy.
Dustin (330eed) — 5/5/2012 @ 9:48 pm
Ghost, absolutely. Prayers for a safe delivery and healthy little one for your sister. Keep us posted.
Dana (4eca6e) — 5/5/2012 @ 10:02 pm
Alex, are you so stupid and ignorant of US geography that you can’t figure out why “six of the top ten” states for illegal immigration can’t be border states?

Look at a map, twit.
SPQR (26be8b) — 5/5/2012 @ 10:16 pm
daleyrocks, you’ve almost got Alex telling us that the Austrians speak Austrian.
SPQR (26be8b) — 5/5/2012 @ 10:17 pm
Yep I’m real dumb. Please help me out.
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 10:23 pm
Yes, Alex, you are. Look at a map.
SPQR (26be8b) — 5/5/2012 @ 10:28 pm
ghost-Thaughts and prayers.
sickofrinos (44de53) — 5/5/2012 @ 10:40 pm
Alex – Are you aware that six out of the top 10 states with the highest estimated population of illegal immigrants are not border states?

That’s hardly surprising since only 4 states border Mexico. Talk about fatuous nonsense.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:21 pm
and yes, I got it without the hints.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:22 pm
Lol Kevin 😀

But he didn’t say Mexican border, he said only “border”. And let’s be real, FLA may not have a land border with Cuba (etc) but it basically borders Cuba for all intents and purposes, and certainly fits with your original statement, heck you even mentioned Rubio. There are a few clowns on here, and they post silliness, the try to troll it out and mess with you… Look at how they play refusing to answer me. Anyhoo, what are the top ten states? CA, TX, FL, NY (borders Canada), NJ, AZ, NM, NV??? Two more… IL and WA?
Alex (937436) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:29 pm
“That’s hardly surprising since only 4 states border Mexico. Talk about fatuous nonsense.”

Kevin M – That’s right, since only two of the top 5 and three of the top 10 are Mexican border states. Only the opinions of the residents of those states counts. What is the consensus of the politicians or residents of those states? Shoot, there isn’t one.

What was your point again?
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:40 pm
“Just exactly what makes a blind Chinaman worth having in America?”

nk – Easy question. If they’re not blind they all look alike to me. If one is blind they might have a service dog or use a cane. Much easier to tell apart. D’oh!
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:44 pm
“Just exactly what makes a blind Chinaman worth having in America?”

nk – Plus he could tell us how China saved Tibet! Bonus!!!!!!
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 5/5/2012 @ 11:47 pm
Ghost, #84, my best wishes for the best outcome for your sister and the baby.

I was early, too, eight months, but my mother went on to have two more 6’2″ sons, when medicine was nothing like it is now. My nephew was sewed in to delay labor. He is 6’2″, 200 lbs, and he got his paratrooper’s wings (10 jumps), this last year. His mother, at 55, could kick my a**.

Trust in God and in the strengh He gave to the clay.
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 2:37 am
One of my best friends boss was planting flowers in front of his flower shop last week, and was killed by an 58 year old illegal mexican bitch, who could not read, write or f-ing drive. And why are these killers living amongst us? Treasonous lawyers and political characters, would be my first guess. Just like ww2- Round these illegal freaks up before they kill you. This country is close to worthless.
sickofrinos (44de53) — 5/6/2012 @ 2:41 am
You no likee Amelica, sickofrinos, you go find some place better.

(I know how to spell “America”.)
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 2:51 am
daleyrocks,

Click on my signature to get to my site. My top post, I wrote in Greek: MAYDAY, remember the victims of communism. Stole it from SayUncle. http://www.saysuncle.com/
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 3:01 am
nk-I would like to see the America I fought for. Not the one illegal pricks are dismantling. You don’t like my post’s, tough shit. It’s still America and my points of view are as valid as anyones. When will the lawyers step up and help rid this country of the illegal slime? Excuse me while I reload to protect the innocent.
sickofrinos (44de53) — 5/6/2012 @ 3:06 am
NK,

Sounds like those “crickets” you spoke of(#80) were actually emanating from behind your computer. Even Mr. Chen can “see” that.
Elephant Stone (0ae97d) — 5/6/2012 @ 7:33 am
Are you aware that only 50 of the top 57 states Obama has campaigned in are located in this dimension?

The truth is out there.
Dustin (330eed) — 5/6/2012 @ 7:46 am
______________________________________________

Just exactly what makes a blind Chinaman worth having in America? As opposed to a hard-working young Mexican? It’s a serious question.

In that case — in terms of just the specifics — yep, it’s a good question. But from a general, symbolic standpoint? Context is your friend.

First of all, this country over the past several decades has had to deal with millions of more immigrants, illegal in particular, from Mexico and other societies south of the border than from elsewhere. Although the percentage of immigrants from Asia, including China, more recently has grown exponentially faster than for groups from other parts of the world, in pure numeric terms it’s still comparatively modest.

Second of all — and disregarding the politics between the US and the PRC in the case of the blind dissident — there is this matter:

city-journal.org: The Latino Education Crisis: The Consequences of Failed Social Policies, by Patricia Gandara and Frances Contreras, offers an unflinching portrait of Hispanics’ educational problems and reaches a scary conclusion about those problems’ costs. The book’s analysis is all the more surprising given that its authors are liberals committed to bilingual education, affirmative action, and the usual slate of left-wing social programs. Yet Gandara and Contreras, education professors at UCLA and the University of Washington, respectively, are more honest than many conservative open-borders advocates in acknowledging the bad news about Hispanic assimilation.

Hispanics are underachieving academically at an alarming rate, the authors report. Though second- and third-generation Hispanics make some progress over their first-generation parents, that progress starts from an extremely low base and stalls out at high school completion. High school drop-out rates — around 50 percent — remain steady across generations. Latinos’ grades and test scores are at the bottom of the bell curve. The very low share of college degrees earned by Latinos has not changed for more than two decades. Currently only one in ten Latinos has a college degree.

By 2025, one in four students nationally will be Latino; in many Southwest cities, Latinos are already about 70 percent of the school population. For the first time in history, the authors observe, the ethnic group with the lowest academic achievement will become the majority in significant parts of the country.

California provides a glimpse of what such changes might mean for America’s economic future. The Center for Public Policy and Higher Education predicts that unless the rate of college matriculation among “underrepresented” minorities (that is, Hispanics) immediately rises, the state will face an 11 percent drop in per capita income by 2020.

Federal, state, and local governments have already spent billions trying to overcome the Latino education gap, with little success. That gap persists in part because of the stigma against academic achievement among many Latino males. Contreras and Gandara recount a typical classroom episode: a boy correctly answered a math question, only to be greeted by chants of “schoolboy, schoolboy” from the other male children, followed by the comment: “Now you think you are smart.”

^ The stereotype of an underachieving populace being full of people who do nothing but sit around all day eating bon bons doesn’t apply to hand-to-mouth societies like Mexico—or India, etc, for that matter. So a lack of socio-economic progress in such places in general can’t be attributed to laziness or indolence, socialistic or otherwise. That’s worth keeping in mind when assuming that a society with lots of people willing to pursue manual, sweat-labor activity (grueling or otherwise) — of and by itself — will be enough to give a nation a strong shove up the ladder.
Mark (dd3927) — 5/6/2012 @ 7:51 am
Still off topic, but I wanted to thank you guys. Dominic was born about half an hour ago, 2lbs, 11 ounces, and the docs are giving him an 85% chance.

He’s in the toaster now, and he probably won’t be able to go home until mid-July, but he made it.

Thanks again.
Ghost (6f9de7) — 5/6/2012 @ 8:00 am
“Just exactly what makes a blind Chinaman worth having in America?”

Anyone who can embarrass Obama and Hilary at the same time is worth having.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 5/6/2012 @ 8:04 am
How is your sister, Ghost?
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 8:22 am
Oh Ghost, that is wonderful news. Welcome little Dominic! Will remember to keep lifting him in prayer…thankfully medical care for preemies these days is simply amazing. May your sister and Dominic stay strong.
Dana (4eca6e) — 5/6/2012 @ 8:23 am
Anyone who can embarrass Obama and Hilary at the same time is worth having.

Comment by Kevin M — 5/6/2012 @ 8:04 am

I have two problems with that.

Politics should end at the border. For better or for worse, the magical Kenyan and the Lewinski enabler are America’s face to the world. Their embarassment is America’s embarassment.

The other thing is, they’re bad enough drivers with perfect vision. Now a blind one?
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 8:36 am
With all of the anti-government types all over the world coming to the US (and other countries) is, in the long term, a loss for the people of the world who wish to be free…

Once a “revolutionary” leaves the country (be it China, Cuba, etc.), they pretty much become irrelevant in the home country.

Imagine what the US would have been like if the founders of our country left for Brazil, Argentina, etc. instead of remaining here and facing similar consequences.

I also understand the desire to get their families to safety. No good answers…
BfC (fd87e7) — 5/6/2012 @ 8:50 am
I will add my prayers to everyone’s on behalf of Ghost’s new nephew and his sister. Family is the most important thing.
Simon Jester (17fdba) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:04 am
“The other thing is, they’re bad enough drivers with perfect vision. Now a blind one?”

Comment by nk

Hey, enough of that. There’s a reason you can’t turn your back on a Greek.
Colonel Haiku (f14e5c) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:07 am
Thoughts and prayers with your baby nephew and sister, Ghost.
Colonel Haiku (f14e5c) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:08 am
Haiku,

How do you separate the men from the boys in Athens?

(Hint: 300).
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:13 am
Comment by BfC — 5/6/2012 @ 8:50 am

1975, I am in Spain, and some white guy starts talking Greek to me. I asked, “Where are you from?” I expected some place like “Sparta” or “Athens”. He said “Argentina”.
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:25 am
Ghost – as a father of 2 premies, I know what it is like to have little ones like that. Prayers for you and yours.
JD (d4dd44) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:26 am
Since Gary hasn’t shown yet today;

http://news.yahoo.com/angry-greeks-vote-cliffhanger-election-041733917–business.html
narciso (8d0f34) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:27 am
“Haiku,

How do you separate the men from the boys in Athens?

(Hint: 300).”

Comment by nk

With a Pry Bar?
Colonel Haiku (f14e5c) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:31 am
“Just exactly what makes a blind Chinaman worth having in America? As opposed to a hard-working young Mexican? It’s a serious question.”

I also dislike the implication that a BLIND Chinaman cannot be a contributor to American society relative to a hard-working young Mexican. Insensitivity comes in many forms.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:31 am
“Politics should end at the border. For better or for worse, the magical Kenyan and the Lewinski enabler are America’s face to the world. Their embarassment is America’s embarassment.”

Unfortunately Obama and Sister Pantsuit are prone to making wrong and embarrassing decisions. I am amused by a sudden call for civility.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:37 am
My wife’s water broke exactly nine calendar months from the hour of conception. For a reason doctors did not tell, they cut her belly open to get the baby out. The first thing the baby did was punch the nurse who tried to take her. She scored 99 percentile in reading nationally. Have faith, Ghost.
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:42 am
Haiku,

Yes.
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 9:44 am
Colonel, you don’t like it when your faith and/or ethnicity is disparaged, so golden rule, should obtain,
narciso (8d0f34) — 5/6/2012 @ 10:07 am
Thanks everyone. My sister is doing well, hanging in there as best as can be expected. She’s a tough cookie.

Again, thanks for the prayers. And the reassurances.
Ghost (6f9de7) — 5/6/2012 @ 10:10 am
narciso… nk and I were joking around using nitwitted stereotypes… just butt out.
Colonel Haiku (f14e5c) — 5/6/2012 @ 10:48 am
no pun intended, lol.
Colonel Haiku (f14e5c) — 5/6/2012 @ 10:49 am
narciso,

Haiku and I are making fun of political correctness. Please nip in, if you want to.
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 11:12 am
My sister is doing well, hanging in there as best as can be expected. She’s a tough cookie.

She’s now a mother – tough cookie comes with the territory.

Bfc @ 8:50 am,

Once a “revolutionary” leaves the country (be it China, Cuba, etc.), they pretty much become irrelevant in the home country. Imagine what the US would have been like if the founders of our country left for Brazil, Argentina, etc. instead of remaining here and facing similar consequences.

That is not necessarily true. I linked to this above, but I will quote in part from the exile who authored the piece. Relevancy and impact, whether in a Chinese prison or overseas are both dependent upon modern technology. It’s a much different world than when our founding fathers were making their stand.

I have been in exile for 14 years, and have learned that there are many ways to exert influence in China from abroad. Although I very much would like to return, I have no regrets about my time here. I’ve studied at Harvard, I teach at universities in Taiwan and the United States and I continue to publish regularly about current events in China. My work circulates and is read extensively in China via the Internet and social media. I have tens of thousands of followers on Weibo, China’s version of Twitter.

The Internet and globalization have changed the very concept of exile. They have eliminated the possibility of isolating Los Angeles (where I now live) from Beijing (my hometown), and Shandong Province (where Mr. Chen is from). My Twitter, Facebook and Google Plus followers number more than 80,000, and the vast majority of them are China activists in various parts of the world. Is this so different from staying? If I were in China under house arrest now, like Mr. Chen was for the past two years, I would have had to depend on the Internet for contact with the outside world anyway.

Finally, there are more than 30 million overseas Chinese, who have deep and abiding ties to mainland China. While in exile, I’ve been able to interact freely with this community and, I hope, to have played a bridge-building role. I have traveled extensively in the United States, Europe, Australia, Taiwan. I’ve taken part in more than 1,000 seminars, debates and lectures.

My objective has been straightforward: to ensure that people do not forget the Tiananmen democracy movement of 1989 and the military crackdown that followed. I think I am having some success, because I get e-mail almost every day from young people on the mainland who have crossed the Great Firewall to log on to my Facebook page and ask me for details.

I’ve come to believe that exile is not a liability but an asset.
Dana (4eca6e) — 5/6/2012 @ 12:23 pm
And wow, am I horrible at math. My sister was due on July 31st, so a little more than “a month early” like I thought.

But again, thanks everyone for the prayers.
Ghost (b22650) — 5/6/2012 @ 12:42 pm
How do you separate the men from the boys in Athens?

— Lock down the high school.
— Take them to a sheep farm.
Icy (8d0fcc) — 5/6/2012 @ 12:45 pm
Ghost, hopefully you said a little prayer yourself
Icy (8d0fcc) — 5/6/2012 @ 12:47 pm
Dana, I sincerely pray that you are correct… I have also read other places:

Chen initially resisted seeking asylum in the U.S., and Fu says that’s because, to the Chinese, the term is very indicting.

“Basically [it’s] almost equal to treason,” he says. “Nobody inside Chinese soil would publicly proclaim they want to seek asylum.”
…
The case of Chen Guancheng has drawn comparisons to a similar dilemma back in 1989.

Fang Lizhi was a prominent Chinese astrophysicist and dissident who would end up living inside the U.S. embassy in Beijing for a year, until U.S. officials successfully negotiated his exile to America in 1990.
…
Link says, while Fang Lizhi wanted to leave, he understands why Chen Guancheng is more ambivalent.

“This was different in a sense … because, in those days, to leave and go to the U.S. didn’t seem to be leaving the Chinese democracy movement quite as clearly as it does now,” Link says. “The record of the last decades shows that Chinese dissidents who leave China become irrelevant inside China.”

For someone like Chen Guancheng, being relevant in China is very important because his whole career as a lawyer is there, Link says.

Fang Lizhi ended up teaching physics at the University of Arizona and continued to speak out against China’s human rights violations. Just one month ago, at the age of 76, Fang died. Perry Link gave a eulogy at the memorial service.
BfC (fd87e7) — 5/6/2012 @ 12:50 pm
“virgin wool” in Greece: the Fastest of teh Flock.
Colonel Haiku (bf42d7) — 5/6/2012 @ 1:01 pm
Haiku, what does that say for virgin olive oil?
SPQR (ed96d7) — 5/6/2012 @ 1:04 pm
Virgin olive oil . . . best selling lubricant in Athens, 3,000 years running!
Icy (8d0fcc) — 5/6/2012 @ 1:08 pm
I raised lambs, and my father operated the olive oil plant (refinery). We both preferred women.
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 1:14 pm
Olive oil, pure, is closer to a soap than a lubricant. It was, in fact, used for bathing with a stregil, before soap was invented.

For a soap, you boil it with lye. For a lubricant, you boil it by itself, hot, until it hydrogenizes.

Lanolin, from sheep wool, just gives you soft skin.
nk (875f57) — 5/6/2012 @ 1:20 pm
Thread needs to make a ewe turn.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 5/6/2012 @ 7:14 pm

5/5/2012

Whither the Hispanic vote?

141 Responses to “Whither the Hispanic vote?”

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