Is Obama in Trouble? (Updated)
[Guest post by DRJ]
First Jeremiah Wright, then William Ayers, and lingering in the background is Tony Rezko. Barack Obama has some skeletons in his closet and when you add in recent polls, Tom Elia at The New Editor wonders if Obama is in bigger trouble than anyone thinks:
“The latest CBS News/New York Times poll contains an interesting tidbit (pdf file) about a potential Obama-McCain match-up, particularly considering the tilt of the poll.
According to the poll, “McCain now holds a three-point lead over Obama among women; last month, women gave Obama a 13-point margin.”
As a point of comparison, the CNN exit poll after the 2004 presidential election showed Democrat John Kerry winning the women’s vote by a three-point margin.
November’s a long way off, but if that six-point swing among female voters holds up for McCain, it’s a big, big development if Obama is the Dems’ nominee.”
Elia also notes that Gallup has McCain over Obama by 6 points.
We all know polls can be wrong which is why I have another test: A worried politician often puts his children on display to bolster the campaign. Chelsea Clinton went public on behalf of her mother after Obama became a factor in Iowa. Now it looks like Obama’s girls are more involved, and that suggests to me Obama is feeling the heat.
UPDATE: Don Surber says Obama is so deep in trouble he’s “Kerry Deep.”
— DRJ
I think the “super delegates” are too afraid of a black backlash if Hillary wins with their help. They would rather take a loss than risk the support of blacks that seem to ignore all the other reasons why they might waver; bad schools, teachers unions, illegal immigrants and the rest.
Mike K (a08d8e) — 5/4/2008 @ 1:16 pmI am personally offended by the vociferous black supporters of Obama threatening the DNC if Obama isn’t nominated. Last time I checked this was a Democracy, and the DNC wasn’t controlled by mob rule. Such threats should be ignored. Bullying by a special interest or minority is a sign of a troubled candidate. The guidelines where super delegates are concerned appear to be few . They can use any criteria to decide which candidate to support….they aren’t just a “confirmation” vote. That said, several have stated that “electability” would be at the top of the list….for good reason…..because winning the White House is what this whole process has been about. My hope is that the super delegates don’t take their eyes off the prize, which is choosing the person that is most likely to beat McCain. That is their over-riding responsibility, hurt feelings and voter disappointment must take a back seat.
Hako (4bd92b) — 5/4/2008 @ 2:45 pmODE TO OBAMA (Second Ed.)
by Publius II
There once was a man named Obama
His life began with drama
An African Muslim father
And a wild white mama
Obama’s white grandparents
They gave him a charmed life
Raised on the beaches of Hawaii
Far from ghetto strife
He went to private schools
Fourteen thousand dollars a year
Working-class white folks
They were nowhere near
He attended Columbia
Then Harvard Law
A very soft and liberal upbringing
Something Americans eventually saw
He then went to Chicago
Nation of Islam, Farrakhan, Black Panthers and Jackson
The only friends he made
All from the extreme left-wing faction
He joined a radical church
His Pastor downright insane
Blacks and whites, he said
Think with different parts of their brain
His church praised a man named Cone
With hateful opinions he was filled
He said white people were “the devil”
And Gods who love whites must be killed
Obama first ran for State Senate
With permission from Chicago’s Marxist King
A domestic terrorist named Ayers
Obama kissed his ring
He wrote a book called “Dreams From My Father”
From start to finish a racist rant
After people finally read it
They later said: “Obama, no we can’t”
He wrote how he rejected his mother’s race
And that Malcolm X was a hero
People had a clear warning
Obama was a dangerous zero
He was then elected to the U.S. Senate
Obama’s ego grew very bold
He barely served a year
I will run for President was the story he told
He spent millions to stage rallies
The crowds would yell and cheer
But then it all fizzled after he said
Typical white folks cling to religion, guns and beer
His wife said America was mean
She was never really proud
Her Black Separatist thesis at Princeton
Became a campaign cloud
People said he was a Muslim
His supporters scoffed and jeered
Then his Black Liberation Church was exposed
And Obama’s ugly head was reared
He tried to recover in a speech on race
The radical left-wing media offered raves
But he said white folks had an “untrained ear”
And abolitionists in Pennsylvania turned over in their graves
He claimed to be a uniter
He would bring people together all at once
But after his speech in Philadelphia
He proved to be a demographic dunce
He tried once more to persuade whites
But his bowling was a mess
He rolled a 37
Like a 5-year-old girl in a sundress
He then played basketball
He drove the ball to the rack
But when all was said and done
He looked like an old man having a heart attack
He wouldn’t cover his heart
As the National Anthem played
It’s a meaningless gesture he said
But Americans felt betrayed
He wouldn’t wear a flag pin
It was against his One World view
It doesn’t matter he said
And the American people stewed
He first called terrorist Ayers his friend
Then said this man he didn’t really know
More deceit and cover-ups
Obama’s lies began to grow
Farrakhan, Jackson and Sharpton
Three of Obama’s greatest fans
He tried hiding them in the closet
So not to further offend the white man
Then came his anti-American Pastor
Obama’s mentor for 20 years
He preened, shucked and jived
White people rose up and sneered
NBC and the New York Times
They tried each day to save Obama’s campaign
But real Americans said “FU”
And Obama spiraled down the drain
The radical left-wing Democrats
Publius II (4de1af) — 5/4/2008 @ 3:13 pmA Presidential race lost once again
Is it really a surprise
They’ve lost 7 of the last 10?
Following these polls will give you whiplash after a while. The latest CBSNYT poll (the same group whose previous poll is discussed at length in this post) has Obama with double-digit leads over both Clinton and McCain.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/04/opinion/polls/main4069259.shtml
Phil (6d9f2f) — 5/4/2008 @ 3:30 pmFunny thing when you look at the internals of that poll, Phil, showing Obama has a lead over McCain (from the bottom of the very last page):
Obama’s “leading” McCain because the sample favors Democrats by a 4-3 margin over Republicans. It’s a worthless poll.
Shad (36f787) — 5/4/2008 @ 4:15 pm“Obama’s “leading” McCain because the sample favors Democrats by a 4-3 margin over Republicans.”
Looks like they weighed it.I don’t think democrats and republicans have a national parity though.
stef (df613b) — 5/4/2008 @ 5:20 pmThey are good parents. If only I did not already have a mommy and daddy (passed away but I had him for a long time) I would vote for them to be mine.
nk (1e7806) — 5/5/2008 @ 7:47 amThe interesting part of that poll is this:
Independents back Obama in a head to head against McCain, but in a Clinton-McCain contest independents support McCain by five points.
And that’s not tainted by the D/R balance in the overall poll.
aphrael (db0b5a) — 5/5/2008 @ 9:18 amaphrael, I’m not sure it matters that much. What really matters is Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and a handful of other states. That’s where the money will go, and that’s how the election will turn.
And Hillary is much better there, because she’s a much better candidate than Obama.
Jem (4cdfb7) — 5/5/2008 @ 12:07 pm