Patterico's Pontifications

9/14/2021

California Recall Election Open Thread

Filed under: General — JVW @ 5:00 pm



[guest post by JVW]

Today is the final day to vote in the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom, and to potentially designate a replacement for him. I am about to go drop off my ballot marked “Yes” on the recall question.

Arguments For Recall:
Susan Shelly writes that Republicans can make inroads into a heavily Democrat state by speaking to people’s dreams, and how the Democrat agenda is not meeting them.

Matt Fleming laughs at Ezra Klein’s feeble attempts to defend the Gavin Newsom record.

Rich Lowry marvels at the fact that a hyper-woke state party defends the most privileged of privileged white males.

Kevin Williamson sees parallels between California of 2021 and Detroit of 1961.

Halfway Reasonable Argument Against Recall
The President of the Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce fears removal will cause chaos, and we will have our chance to vote Newsom out next year anyway.

Who Should Replace Newsom?
I am voting for Kevin Kiley, a state senator whom I mentioned once before on this blog. Back in 2003 I really wanted to vote my conscience and mark my ballot for Tom McClintock, but when the Los Angeles Times ran an eleventh-hour hit piece on Arnold Schwarzenegger (which, when all was said and done, was likely true) I got mad and determined that I would never forgive myself if Arnie lost by one lone vote, so I checked the box for everyone’s favorite Austrian action star. But this time around I am voting for the person who I think would do the best job. Sorry, Larry Elder, you too are being treated rather shabbily by the God-awful Dog Trainer, but my vote goes to Senator Kiley.

What Do I Expect to Happen
Current polls are likely correct: the poll at the end of last month showing the race narrowing was likely an outlier and the governor is probably going to get enough Democrats to come out and keep his administration in place. Even though it will take the state probably two weeks to count the ballots, you can expect the progressive intelligentsia in the media to declare that Gavin Newsom has survived this scare rather handily by the end of the evening.

Share your observations below. Those of you who are not Californians are welcome to mock us for our horrible taste in leaders and general dysfunction.

– JVW

69 Responses to “California Recall Election Open Thread”

  1. Here’s a little walk down memory lane, with Norm MacDonald anchoring the Weekend Update. I guffawed out loud (26:25 mark) when he brought up Christie Brinkley and her ideas about football.

    Paul Montagu (5de684)

  2. Otter gotta go! If it doesn’t happen this year, it will in ‘22.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  3. @1.

    Laughed even louder when he was fired from SNL.

    But then, Lucy wasn’t funny either.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  4. Arguments for recall:

    Gasoline tax- 51 cents a gallon; piss-poor fire control management; homeless smelling up parking lots across the state; a COVID-19 reginal plan more complicated than Microsoft User Agreement; another electric and gas rates increases AGAIN for January ’22 for the worst public utility outside of Texas [in the bill yesterday]; charges for grocery bags, rise in auto registration fees [for what??] smog testing; CA phone tax, cable TV tax, fees, fees, more fees nickel and dime citizens to flee.

    The state sucks.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  5. Speaking of Michigan/California comparisons, will Elder be the CA version of John James?

    urbanleftbehind (c5c145)

  6. A GOP governor like Radio Stymie would be literally ‘stymied’ by the Dem CA legislature.

    That’s where the problem is in CA; the entrenched and insulated bureaucrats.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  7. I don’t even know why any Republican would waste his time voting in a rigged election.

    nk (1d9030)

  8. Cutting and pasting my link from the other thread, this sums up the recall race.

    lurker (59504c)

  9. MSNBC has called it 67% No to 33% Yes. Should tighten but not by much.

    Newsom survives.

    What say you Radio Stymie?

    “Otay!’

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  10. When you aim for the King… and miss–

    Expect reprisals.

    Thanks, Stymie.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  11. Memo to Newsom.

    Don’t know ANY ‘kids’ who watch the ‘nightly news’ day in and day out.

    “Everybody wants to be respected.” – Gavin Newsom His political hero, he says, is Robert Kennedy says Newsom.

    Watch him parole Sirhan next month.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  12. OT:

    @JackPosobiec
    BREAKING: Several Pentagon officers present in Milley’s secret meeting are willing to testify against him under oath, per WH official
    12:41 PM · Sep 14, 2021·Twitter for iPhone

    Jack has been spot on reporting on the “news” with these sort of things lately.

    If true, wtf is the WH leaking this?

    Is this an attempt to “Wag the Dog” to throw Milley under the bus for Afghanistan?

    whembly (ae0eb5)

  13. I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating. California needs an opposition party and the GOP is not it. Forming a new party is fairly easy in CA, although getting ballot status may be harder (not clear on what rules change with the jungle primary).

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  14. Now, does Elder make himself a laughing stock by claiming the vote was rigged?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  15. Is DCSCA always allowed to be so racist against Larry Elder?

    qdpsteve (8d496a)

  16. Watch him parole Sirhan next month.

    If he does, Sirhan will be quickly deported.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  17. @JackPosobiec

    Now there’s a reliable news source.

    Rip Murdock (0aa613)

  18. Watch him parole Sirhan next month.

    Only if he wants to lose reelection.

    Rip Murdock (0aa613)

  19. Jack has been spot on reporting on the “news” with these sort of things lately.

    For example?

    Rip Murdock (0aa613)

  20. “Now there’s a reliable news source.”

    If you can’t trust Jack “Pizzagate” Posobiec, who can you trust?

    Davethulhu (9b9639)

  21. Watching Elder’s speech now. He admonished his supporters to be gracious in defeat and talked about how they’ve lost the battle but will win the war. Looks like he’s going to run next year but isn’t going to try to claim he only lost tonight because of fraud.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  22. He admonished his supporters to be gracious in defeat and talked about how they’ve lost the battle but will win the war. Looks like he’s going to run next year but isn’t going to try to claim he only lost tonight because of fraud.

    That allows for only one possible explanation. Larry Elder was in on the conspiracy to rig the election against Larry Elder. This goes deeper than I thought.

    lurker (59504c)

  23. @15. Racist? The man is an empty suited, late comer, one-note-johnny repeatedly motor-mouthing ‘Newsom is bad,’ like the right wing talk radio host he is; literally a TeeVee patent medicine peddler w/no relevant executive experience to helm the 5th largest economy on the planet– and totally ‘stymied’ when pushed to present a comprehensive, positive agenda of viable solutions. At least the Gold Medaled Trannie was sincere- just sincerely creepy– and flamed out. The rest were stale old Reagan retreads- crumbs worthy of the blue jays on the birdfeeder.

    The CA GOP had months to back and run one, middle-aged white guy who’d vow to suspend the gasoline tax on day one for 18 months– a sure winning move; but no: they trotted out the freak show to go against the creep show. The CA GOP is as bad as the putz who wasn’t tossed out– and isn’t a serious entity in CA today. ‘Boy,’ you’re way off base.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  24. @21. Looks like he’s going to run next year but isn’t going to try to claim he only lost tonight because of fraud

    Unless his Relief Factor contract isn’t reupped.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  25. Watch him parole Sirhan next month. Only if he wants to lose reelection.

    He should have appointed himself Senator to replace Kamala.

    Bet he paroles Sirhan all the same- even though 93 year old Ethel opposes it.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  26. Elder jumping in was a gift for Newsom and the Ds. It was an uphill run to begin with for the Rs but the Ds will breakdown the numbers against the voting patterns from 2020 and get hard data w/a good fix on the lay of the land and how to deal w/the next cycle. What been seen in the raw numbers in the counties so far is little change from the 2020 spread.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  27. Still gov. newsome thanks larry elder for making voters forget why they hate him and remind them why they hate republicans. No was under 50% when the uncle tom for rich white conservatives entered the race.

    asset (9aa159)

  28. Exactly what was expected from the land of fruits and nuts.
    Worse than Trump wins again.
    Worse than Trump/2024

    mg (8cbc69)

  29. Forgive my being off-topic, but this is part of the news that is being “blacked out” by our media masters. Bold move. What a bunch of quacks, right?

    felipe (484255)

  30. nk (1d9030) — 9/14/2021 @ 6:48 pm

    I know, right?

    felipe (484255)

  31. felipe (484255) — 9/15/2021 @ 4:05 am

    That is not news, felipe. That is lying scum telling lies on the internet.

    nk (1d9030)

  32. Newsom should send flowers and candy to Trump. Who thought (come on, be honest, now) Newsom would beat the recall by a margin of two to one before Trump injected himself in it? Da Pum’kin’s endorsement is da kiss o’ death in every place where they salt the roads for de-icing and not for food flavoring.

    nk (1d9030)

  33. The higher than expected margin exposes a mini-Bradley effect within GOP electorates, as seen with the John James (MI) candidacies and what might happen with James Craig, Herschel Walker and Vernon Jones next year. I think Abbott has distanced himself from Allen West who isn’t as dependent on 50+1 slice victory path (only Jindal successfully pulled that off in LA when the motel, gas station and Popeyes Chicken crowd lined up in unison behind him).

    urbanleftbehind (b7ca9d)

  34. I’m glad elder accepted the loss and was gracious in defeat.

    I wasn’t rooting for anyone in this election but the country needs more overt messages Iike this.

    Time123 (54e6d2)

  35. Thee most interesting question s why the Democrats campaigned so hard. I think it’s because they think that a large victory has a coattails effect on the next election.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  36. Is Thoroughly Discredited Milley being underbussed?

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  37. The interesting thing is there were a million more votes to kick Newsom out than there were for Larry Elder himself.

    DN (8b3c7c)

  38. What a bunch of quacks, right?

    Yes, they are. The attorney for the Indian Bar Assn is an anti-vax crank, relying on the works of the Frontline Doctors’ cranks in her lawsuit, the article written by a crank who claimed that the vaccines make you more likely that you’ll catch Covid, among other things.
    There is truly a disinformation war out there, felipe, and I fear you’re on the wrong side of it.

    Paul Montagu (5de684)

  39. Teh FBI is being covered in glory up on Capitol Hill this morning…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  40. crank crank everywhere a crank
    lefties line up single file
    to give ‘em all a yank

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  41. Biden shot down his SecState and SecDef, who recommended a “gated” withdrawal. This president fully owns this botched cut-and-run plan.

    Paul Montagu (5de684)

  42. Watch him parole Sirhan next month.

    Split the difference. Parole him, then deport him to Israel.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  43. @33:

    There is an element of the Trumpist crowd that will give lip-service to a black candidate then vote for the white guy in the polling booth. Of course, there are also blacks who will pretend to support the white Democrat, yet vote for the black Republican.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  44. It’s now Larry Elder’s California GOP. What’s his next move?
    ……
    His showing Tuesday, when he led the challengers by a wide margin, could establish him as the putative leader of the state’s Republican Party.
    ……
    Asked about a 2022 run, Elder told KMJ radio in Fresno on Tuesday: “I have now become a political force here in California in general and particularly within the Republican party. And I’m not going to leave the stage.”
    …….
    “He is now the leader of the resistance in California, or at least one of the biggest leaders,” said Carl DeMaio, a San Diego talk radio host and chair of the Reform California political action committee. “If he does want to run again, there is no doubt he is the [Republican] nominee. There is simply no doubt.”

    But dominion over a small conservative “resistance” — dominated by a shrinking minority of older, white voters — is not a formula to return Republicans to power in California, said GOP consultant Mike Madrid.

    “You can say you remained pure in defeat, but that’s just a martyr candidacy,” Madrid said. “It appeals to a core group that is the fastest-shrinking demographic in the state and in the country.”
    …….
    “Any candidate that only appeals to the base, to 32% of the electorate, and at the same time energizes a lot of the other 68% of voters, that is not going to be helpful for a Republican candidate,” said Rob Stutzman, who was a spokesman for Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state’s last Republican governor.
    …….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  45. 39, figured it out. Is Rose McGowan gonna somersault to the microphone in solidarity?

    urbanleftbehind (b7ca9d)

  46. Paul Montagu (5de684) — 9/15/2021 @ 7:59 am

    I’m not on anyone’s side, Paul, because (as Treebeard would say) No one is on my side.

    felipe at a different terminal (084d77)

  47. 37. DN (8b3c7c) — 9/15/2021 @ 7:37 am

    The interesting thing is there were a million more votes to kick Newsom out than there were for Larry Elder himself.

    Not interesting. That;s simple. The recall was an up or down vote – the replacement election was a first past the post and the recall was polling around 50-50 (slightly leaning against) and Larry Elder was polling around 20%, but was first.

    John Ziegler (of http://freespeechbroadcasting.com) was interviewed by Mark Simone of WOR 710 radio this morning. He said about 10 points flipped when Newsome began running against Larry Elder. He thinks the results are not 70-30 u will turn out to closer to 60-40 against the recall.

    He thinks that if Newsome had lost hat would have set back Covid restrictions, now he thinks his 9-year old daughter will be wearing a mask for the rest of her schooling. (I think that’s assuming things wll stay the same for longer than they will.)

    He thinks the only hope of defeating Newsom next year is something like Kevin Costner running for Governor as an independent. Only a ce;brity can get started in California in a statewide race.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  48. There actually was no “Bradley effect” What was argued was a Bradley effect was really caused by people who tend to vote for Republicans not trusting polls and participating less in them.

    From 1936 through the early 1960s it was Democrats who mistrusted polls more.

    It is hard to adjust for that by weighing because the tendency not to answer surveys is correlated with whom or what you are gong to vote for. It has to be weighted with answers to other questions.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  49. Turns out Milley’s call to his ChiCom counterparts wasn’t “freelancing”, or treason or espionage.

    There were 15 people on the video teleconference calls, including a representative of the State Dept and the read out and notes from Milley’s two calls with his Chinese counterpart were shared with the IC and the Interagency.

    But his post-Insurrection actions to twist the chain-of-command did exceed his authority, IMO. I doubt that’s a fireable offense, and Milley serves at the pleasure of the president and can be retained or sacked at his will.

    Paul Montagu (5de684)

  50. @49. Only if you believe the obfuscation by the same people who said no way Afghanistan would fall between a Friday and Monday.

    The very fact “China” is even in the mix of discussions at the highest levels of the U.S. government regarding the American elections is deeply alarming.

    Milley is incompetent.

    Fire him.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  51. “Milley serves at the pleasure of the president…”

    Christ, ice cream is served “at the pleasure of the president…”

    He’s incompetent. Likely incontinent as well.

    And, of course, a bum.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  52. =ring-ring=

    “Hello, Erwin? Georgie Patton here. Just a head’s up to let you know we’ll be attacking you at El Guettar at dawn. Yes… that right. Best to your missus.”

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  53. Milley is incompetent.

    Yes, he is, but that doesn’t mean he was “freelancing” on the phone calls to his ChiCom counterparts.

    But Fox News spoke with multiple individuals who were in the room during the two phone calls Milley had with Li. The calls, in October, were coordinated with then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s office.

    “They were not secret,” a U.S. official told Fox News about the calls, which took place over video teleconference.

    Fox News has learned there were about 15 people present for the calls. Sources told Fox News that there were multiple notetakers present, and said the calls were both conducted with full knowledge of then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper and then-acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller – something Miller denied.

    Jennifer Griffen is more credible than this Acting SecDef who basically served as a 5″ long holster for Trump’s johnson, with an inch or two to spare.

    Paul Montagu (5de684)

  54. @53. “Safety in numbers” is their defense. Biden’s people have no credibility anymore. 13 dead would attest to that if they could.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  55. Twenty-three dead. Seven of them children.

    nk (1d9030)

  56. But these were not Biden’s best people in the China collusion call. Biden was not in the White House yet. They were Trump’s best people, that Trump had appointed.

    nk (1d9030)

  57. 53… you’re better than that, Paul. Give the guy 7 or 8, “a 5″ long holster for Trump’s johnson, with an inch or two to spare” seems mean spirited… as singer Bonnie Bramlett said of Elvis Costello after he’d disparaged Ray Charles, “that’s so mean I’d betcha he’s got a small d**k”.

    Colonel Haiku (64320c)

  58. It seems likely that Elder will come in second in June and rerun this election next November. Well done, California Republicans!

    aphrael (4c4719)

  59. 55. nk (1d9030) — 9/15/2021 @ 1:28 pm

    Twenty-three dead. Seven of them children.

    You;re counting the drone strike against the wrongly identified ISIS-L card. They will have a hard time admitting it, because it most likely means there never was an ISIS-K car bomb being built. It would have been disinformation, which extended even to the very idea of there being an ISIS-K (because it was wiped out in 2018, and their leader was in a Kabul jail. He talked to the Wall Street Journal two days before the Taliban came. And executed him and eight others. No appeals process for them)

    Where did the warning come from? E don;t know, but

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/01/world/afghanistan-news

    Asked if the U.S. military would cooperate with the Taliban in fighting the Islamic State Khorasan, or ISIS-K, the group that claimed responsibility for last week’s attack that killed 13 American troops and more than 100 Afghans, General Milley said: “It’s possible.”

    General Milley also defended an Air Force drone strike on Sunday that the military says destroyed a car filled with explosives that posed an “imminent” threat to the evacuation operation. Afghans on the ground say it killed at least 10 people, including seven children.

    The New York Times says their sources on the ground say it was filled with water bottle and that was the heavy stuff loaded into the car because water delivery had stopped, Also, there was another Toyota Coralla located near the suspected safe house that was used to fire a rocket towards the airport the day after the drone strike in Kabul.

    But Biden and company kept on saying said ISIS-K is an enemy of the Taliban. They fought them.

    So the information must be true?

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/08/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-end-of-the-war-in-afghanistan/

    The extraordinary success of this mission was due to the incredible skill, bravery, and selfless courage of the United States military and our diplomats and intelligence professionals.

    For weeks, they risked their lives to get American citizens, Afghans who helped us, citizens of our Allies and partners, and others onboard planes and out of the country. And they did it facing a crush of enormous crowds seeking to leave the country. And they did it knowing ISIS-K terrorists — sworn enemies of the Taliban — were lurking in the midst of those crowds.

    They als killedtree [erhaps members f ISIS-K in their old haunts.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  60. “I have great confidence in General Milley.” – Squinty McStumblebum, 9/15/21

    “The Taliban is not the North Vietnamese army. They’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability.” – Squinty McStumblebum, 7/8/21

    “There’s going to be no circumstances where you’re going to see people being lifted off the roof of a US Embassy in Afghanistan.” – Squinty McStumblebum, 7/8/21

    Idiot.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  61. It’s a non-story, just to spice up a book, according to people who know. Of course, we have our very own experts right here about nuclear war protocols and how to avoid one with another superpower when you have a demented baboon in the Oval Office.

    nk (1d9030)

  62. Indeed he is worse than Trump.

    mg (8cbc69)

  63. absolutely malákas

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  64. Toupee, mg! Err, I mean touché.

    nk (1d9030)

  65. It seems likely that Elder will come in second in June and rerun this election next November. Well done, California Republicans!

    The definition of insanity.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  66. 55. 59.

    Twenty-three dead. Seven of them children </i?

    Actually, I think 23 is a wrong number.

    It's 13 if you count only American military – whose deaths in Afghanistan Joe Biden didn;t want any more of. If you count Afghans, you have to count the more than 170 people, mostly Afghans, also killed by that suicide bomber, in addirion to the 10 killed by the erroneous drone strike. I wouldn't count the two r three people killed ny the drone strike at ISIS-K's old location in a northern province of Afghanistan, as they were probably members of some terror or criminal group of some sort.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  67. 60. “The Taliban is not the North Vietnamese army. They’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability.”

    Joe BidenSquinty McStumblebum, 7/8/21

    Truem but the same thing could still happen.

    That only goes to show how little would have been needed to stop ot, because indeed, the Taliban was not the North Vietnamese army

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  68. “Hello, Erwin? Georgie Patton here. Just a head’s up to let you know Monty will be attacking you at dawn. Yes… that right. Best to your missus.”

    FIFY. Milley was going to rat out other people.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  69. “There’s going to be no circumstances where you’re going to see people being lifted off the roof of a US Embassy in Afghanistan.” – Squinty McStumblebum, 7/8/21

    Then he ordered the roof padlocked.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

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