Patterico's Pontifications

2/28/2012

Michigan. Arizona. Whoop.

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 4:00 pm

[Posted by Karl]

Polls close in both states at 9 pm ET tonightEd Morrissey predicts  a 20-point win in Arizona for Romney, and a close two-point win for Santorum in Michigan.  My fundraiser/consultant pal Nathan Wurtzel (who may still favor Gingrich) predicts Romney by 21 in Arizona, and Romney by a two-point margin in Michigan.  Nate Silver has Romney by 16.1 points in Arizona, and Romney by less than a point in Michigan.  May be a long night in MI, although Ed thinks technology will triumph and deliver timely results.

But what does it all mean?  Imho, it all means that the media narrative trumps reality.  Sure, if Mitt loses MI, it’s an embarrassment… if you buy it as his “home state.”  And Matt Dowd will soil himself.  On the other hand, maybe Mitt won MI in 2008 because GOP voters viewed him as the more conservative alternative to McCain… in which case, tonight will merely continue the pattern of a conservative base preferring the conservative alternative to the now-seen-as-more-moderate choice.  We will hear media chatter about what MI says about either candidate’s chances in Ohio.  While momentum is a factor in primaries, due in large part to the media, McCain crushed Huckabee in Ohio in 2008, while Romney had already dropped out.  The media’s master narrative of any campaign in The Horserace, so it is not shocking they want one.  The RNC wanted a longer campaign (a la Obama vs Clinton in 2008) and changed the rules to produce one.  Mission Accomplished (even if the RNC may be having second thoughts about getting what they wished for).  Neither of these schmoes is likely to win MI in a general election.

Nevertheless, I presume everyone else has an opinion. Discuss.

–Karl

UPDATE BY PATTERICO: From what I can tell, Romney is having a very good night.

85 Responses to “Michigan. Arizona. Whoop.”

  1. ding!

    newrouter (b9b577)

  2. “schmoes”? Any one of the four is a better man – and would make a better president – than Barack Hussein Obama.

    Colonel Haiku (893374)

  3. And to think, Romney dominated MI in 2008.

    Sure, if Mitt loses MI, it’s an embarrassment

    Well, to be sure, Mitt is beating every single Republican governor, partly because most of them didn’t even run. The real embarrassment is that the GOP has not offered candidates who can beat these three remaining contenders.

    tonight will merely continue the pattern of a conservative base preferring the conservative alternative to the now-seen-as-more-moderate choice.

    Yes, that’s exactly it, and it’s not the only pattern being continued. In both cases, for some reason the conservatives just can’t hold a candle to the other candidates.

    The Mitt as a the conservative alternative to Mccain is no less confused a view as the Santorum as a conservative alternative to Romney.

    It’s true that a lot of folks are irritated at the direction of the GOP and are opposing Romney because this year he’s a proxy for that problem, the most ‘moderate’ candidate.

    At this point I just think it’s an election to see who actually is more electable. I categorically reject the conventional wisdom that folks like Santorum have no chance.

    Dustin (401f3a)

  4. I categorically denounce any sh*theels who, by sitting on their hands in a fit of pique, facilitate the re-election of Barack Obama.

    Colonel Haiku (893374)

  5. I wish people understood that when they vote for Santorum all they’re doing is encouraging him

    happyfeet (a55ba0)

  6. In other news—-Olympia’s done.

    elissa (04bcac)

  7. I wish people understood that when they vote for Santorum all they’re doing is encouraging him

    I wish there was NOTA on the ballot, because that guy would win most of the elections in this country.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  8. “As Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum force Republican voters to make their choice in a hotly contested Michigan primary, once again we hear the great lament that we have looked at the candidates and found them all unworthy. Not everyone puts it as harshly as the headline over Conrad Black’s piece in the National Post: “The Republicans Send in the Clowns.” But it’s a popular meme in the campaign coverage.

    Like so many others who find the field wanting, Mr. Black laments that “the best Republican candidates—Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan and Haley Barbour—have sat it out.” We’ll never know, will we? Because the “best” Republicans opted not to put their records and statements up for national scrutiny, commit themselves to a grueling campaign trail, and subject themselves to TV debates moderated by media hosts who often seem to be playing for the other team.

    So say this for the final four: They had the guts to put themselves out there — and stick with it. That’s something a winner needs.”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204653604577249691171948210.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  9. Gingrich is a “better man” than Obama. That’s richer than Mitt Romney’s rich-ass trust-fund kids. I’m sure that played well in Michigan, though. So nice to see a hometown boy make good, even if he had to do it by firing you so that his wife could have another Cadillac.

    They’re made right here in Detroit, see, and – what’s everybody grumbling about?

    Leviticus (870be5)

  10. i will incite you with my incendiary comments

    happyfeet (a55ba0)

  11. it’s so easy!

    happyfeet (a55ba0)

  12. I voted at 4:30 PM, Newaygo county, West Michigan, just 174 votes in a precinct of 1400 registered voters. I predict at most 250 votes and 18% or less turnout. Santorum needs bigger numbers than that in west Michigan. Romney will most likely squeak out a win in Michigan.

    Brad (1a3cb1)

  13. Gingrich is a much better man than Obama, Leviticus. Obama would be the ruin of America if left to his own devices. I own six cars, that I’ve purchased over the years using my hard-earned wages. So what. Are you entitled to one of them? When was it exactly that it became acceptable to believe oneself entitled to that which others own?

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  14. Lefties suck and they suck hard.

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  15. that’s a lot of registrations you pay to The Man

    happyfeet (a55ba0)

  16. 1913? At least Obama hasn’t cheated on his wife.

    Leviticus (870be5)

  17. At least Obama hasn’t cheated on his wife.

    How can you possibly know this?

    happyfeet (a55ba0)

  18. “in which case, tonight will merely continue the pattern of a conservative base preferring the conservative alternative to the now-seen-as-more-moderate choice.”

    I’ll buy that except there was no conservative among McVain, McBain and Huckster. Ideology was incapable of differentiating them, personal tastes managed.

    I wanted Fred, but would have taken Rudy, but neither got off the pot.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  19. 16. Good point except no visible garrot scars. She’d wipe the floor with him and toss the leavings to Bo.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  20. they’re super best friends with Bill and Bernardine Ayers remember?

    these are swingers – for reals – just like in Boogie Nights or that movie about Ted and Alice and Carol and Bob

    happyfeet (a55ba0)

  21. 1913?

    Comment by Leviticus

    Funny… I was raised to admire those who worked hard to afford and provide a comfortable life for their families… not to envy them or to expect the government to provide that which I could not provide my loved ones through my own own efforts.

    Ah, well. Different strokes for different folks.

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  22. I would imagine that our upbringings were very different, yes.

    Leviticus (870be5)

  23. “How can you possibly know this?”

    – happyfeet

    Oh, did we switch over to a default presumption of infidelity when I wasn’t looking? My bad. In that case, I can’t believe that Obama would cheat on Michelle like that… and with a transgender prostitute, to boot!

    I’ll rephrase: there is no indication that Obama has cheated on his wife. Which is more than I can say for Gingrich. Better? I didn’t realize scoffing at the idea that Gingrich was a good man was controversial enough to draw capitalization from happyfeet.

    Leviticus (870be5)

  24. i just think we have to keep an open mind

    happyfeet (a55ba0)

  25. ash-hole Obama administration Lefties and their Media Stenographers…

    “But is the overall goal to get our price” of gasoline down, asked [Mississippi Republican Congressman Alan] Nunnelee.

    “No, the overall goal is to decrease our dependency on oil, to build and strengthen our economy,” [Energy Secretary Steven] Chu replied. “We think that if you consider all these energy policies, including energy efficiency, we think that we can go a long way to becoming less dependent on oil and [diversifying] our supply and we’ll help the American economy and the American consumers.”

    Fun bit, notice the headline on the Politico piece at the link, “Chu: DOE works to wean U.S. off oil”. Yeah, that’s the big news in the story.”

    http://ace.mu.nu/archives/327072.php

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  26. I didn’t realize scoffing at the idea that Gingrich was a good man was controversial

    the contention was that Gingrich is a better man than Obama.

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  27. an open mind is a terrible thing to waste

    newrouter (b9b577)

  28. 23. He had every opportunity with Vera Baker en suite. Do I think that means he did? Prolly not, with the Black Muslim Nation keeping tabs.

    Even pro-infanticide marxist nihilist sons of Franklin Marshall Davis have scruples, not to say morals.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  29. Wait if you think that one’s bad, here’s more;

    http://www.lucianne.com/thread/?artnum=667864

    narciso (87e966)

  30. 26. I concur with the Hai Mens, Gingrich is hated by everyone he worked with, people we desperately want to retire, O’Mamba doesn’t work and therein avoids pissing off the masses.

    No contest, most of what’s said about each is a lie.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  31. 26. I concur with the Hai Mens, Gingrich is hated by everyone he worked with, people we desperately want to retire, O’Mamba doesn’t work and therein avoids pissing off the masses.

    No contest, most of what’s said about each is a lie.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  32. 29. “stock prices are rising on growing expectations he will be re-elected this November.”

    Unalloyed stupidity. Market volume is at a decade low and headed lower. Tomorrow is the last LTRO, perhaps 500 Billion euros to be borrowed by EU banks and held in reserve against losses, i.e., invested in commodities and stocks.

    Retail is dead, dead, dead. Mutual funds have cashed out $200 Billion over the last two years, insider purchases are 1:500 versus sales, we just had the worst quarter for earnings since Jan 2009.

    Hyena laugh.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  33. Ogabe says when he’s done with this job, and has to drive again, he’s buying a Volt. It’ll be a collecters item.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  34. Newt’s the better man, and unquestionably on the better side.

    Sarahw (b0e533)

  35. Ooh, ooh, RS up with Dimmis voting in MI by 35 pts.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  36. frothy badger don’t care

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  37. I wish there was NOTA on the ballot, because that guy would win most of the elections in this country.

    Comment by Kevin M

    An unscrupulous politician should change their name to “none of the above”.

    Dustin (401f3a)

  38. separation of church n state makes me want to throw up

    what will happen is vomit will spew from my mouth uncontrollably, cause of that’s how sick separation of church n state makes me

    I’m just gonna barf all over the goddamn place is what I’m gonna do

    cause of church n state being separate and all makes me want to effing hurl

    it’s gonna be messy

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  39. AZ to Romney… MI, close, but will go to Romney.

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  40. EdMorrissey “From exit polls in MI, looks like Romney and Santorum split independents, which was interesting. Romney wins among GOP by 10.”

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  41. EdMorrissey One surprise — Santorum lost Catholics by four.

    EdMorrissey Santorum won “very conservative” and “somewhat liberal”, Romney won the two demos in between.

    JRubinBlogger Romney winning GOP by 10 pts kinda messes up the media meme that he’s not connecting with R’s.. um… he is…

    JRubinBlogger in Michigan Romney won those who decided today 38-31.. backlash vs. robocalls?

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  42. JRubinBlogger Romney now up by 20,000… pulling away

    EdMorrissey The exits point to about a 4-point win for Romney in MI. It will be tough for Santorum to make an argument for electability after that.

    JonahNRO Sometimes I think Newt’s definition of “citizen” is “Person I meet in airport who really, really, likes me.”

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  43. connecting with republicans is impossible.

    sickofrinos (44de53)

  44. 38. Feets channeling Linda Blair.

    42. From, (cough, cough) Charlie Cook:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/off-to-the-races/polls-apart-20120227?mrefid=freehplead_2

    The fact that Super Tuesday will be a downer for Romney is only made more likely by a four point win in MI.

    OH, PA and MO going against Romney buries electability as an issue.

    [note: fished from spam filter. –Stashiu]

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  45. 38. Feets channels Linda Blair.

    42. OH, PA and MO going against Romney buries electability as an issue:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/off-to-the-races/polls-apart-20120227?mrefid=freehplead_2

    Super Tuesday is not going to be Willard’s day.

    [note: fished from spam filter. –Stashiu]

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  46. 42. OH, PA and MO going against Romney buries electability as a headliner:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/off-to-the-races/polls-apart-20120227?mrefid=freehplead_2

    Super Tuesday Willard will take a bath.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  47. I have 100 bucks that says yer full of sh*t, Gary G.

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  48. 1 of those 3 already happened.

    JD (d05df3)

  49. Romney won Mackinac County by 1 vote. 667 votes to Santorum’s, wait for it… 666 votes.

    SATAN! The Decider!

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  50. hey, Gulrud… until Missouri Governor Kit Bond rescinded Missouri Governor Boggs extermination order in 1976 it was legal to kill a Mormon in Missouri. So it may take a while yet for them to come around and warm to a Mormon candidate.

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  51. Looks like they’re calling it for Romney in Michigan.

    Ag80 (b0b671)

  52. Yes, that was a nasty chapter in our history, one of the reasons Huckster gave me gas,

    narciso (87e966)

  53. *snicker* Right now, there are thousands of MI Democrats realizing in horror that they just voted for Rick Santorum. . .for nothing. Their cries of remorse and anguish are the musical theme for the evening. ]:-)

    M. Scott Eiland (003254)

  54. Romney takes MI by three points over Santorum. A good night for Romney, but nothing like his 2008 performance. Romney remains unable to build his support level.

    Dustin (401f3a)

  55. “It’s our time for choosing and we’ve got to get the choice right.”

    “We didn’t win by a lot but we won by enough & that’s all that counts.”

    “Obama says, we can’t wait.” To which I say, ‘Oh, yes, we can.'”

    “We need a recovery from this so-called recovery”

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  56. 48. MO is still has a non-LDS Mormon stronghold, had a neighbor from that ‘church’, they do not confess Joseph Smith a prophet.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  57. Romney takes MI by three points over Santorum. A good night for Romney, but nothing like his 2008 performance. Romney remains unable to build his support level.

    Comment by Dustin

    The usual roadapples from Dustin…

    philipAklein: “Romney has beaten his 2008 total of 338K votes comfortably. He’s at 346K with 84% in.”

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  58. horsesh*t spoken with an air of authoritative knowledge is still just horsesh*t.

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  59. the wailing and gnashing of Democrat teeth can be heard through-out SantorumLand, M. Scott.

    Colonel Haiku (5cc8b6)

  60. One thing is for certain: If Romney wants to win this — and the House and Senate — he better start channeling his inner Gingrich, because defeating Obama is the only thing.

    Ag80 (b0b671)

  61. I think there are going to be a lot of primary voters with a sour taste in their mouths over Santorum’s attempt to cancel out Michigan Republican votes for his own personal political ambitions. I guess he didn’t want a fair fight after all. When he uses people that will be voting for Obama in the fall to dispirit not only Romney, but every Romney supporter, Paul, Gingrich, or undecided Republican primary voters that shows you something about the man, or in this case the career politician. He didn’t target “Reagan Republicans” and to say so insults everybody with half a brain.

    Dave B (982f20)

  62. UPDATE BY PATTERICO: From what I can tell, Romney is having a very good night.

    Patterico (feda6b)

  63. _____________________________________________

    I think there are going to be a lot of primary voters with a sour taste in their mouths over Santorum’s attempt to cancel out Michigan Republican votes for his own personal political ambitions.

    Hubris on his part. An ego bigger than the moon. How else to explain the pathetic nature of anyone — liberal or conservative, Democrat or Republican — nonchalantly trying a devil’s-bargain strategy with both the electorate and their corresponding ideological biases in order to eke out a win.

    In a way it shows Santorum has more squish in him, or a peculiar type of it, than he lets on, or than I previously guessed. That’s because if he truly were disgusted by liberals/Democrats (as he should be) — not just politicians but those throughout the public in general — he’d realize that groveling before them for assistance was a form of prostitution. So for Santorum to have used liberals/Democrats as a “John” makes him quite a hooker.

    Mark (31bbb6)

  64. “At least Obama hasn’t cheated on his wife.”

    Funny, I thought Obama’s dominant homosexual activities were well known, just like his drug history. It’s all over the internets, and has loads more evidence for it than John McCain’s affair.

    Not even to mention Vera Baker, oh so conveniently whisked away out of the country and paid for.

    Talk about your appearances of guilt.

    luagha (72a2e7)

  65. Fall in line, Biz Nitches…

    Mitt Romney (298188)

  66. congratulations Mr. Governor Romney that was a very impressive set of hard-fought victories

    people noticed especially the scrunts on National Soros Radio … they were so super-excited to herald an exceedingly frothy result in Michigan and – ohnoes – they were really a lot bummed out to find out you won what they had spent all evening mocking as your “home state”

    eat it, scrunts

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  67. “I think there are going to be a lot of primary voters with a sour taste in their mouths over Santorum’s attempt to cancel out Michigan Republican votes for his own personal political ambitions.”

    Dave B – Especially ironic given that Santorum was just recently complaining about Democrats voting in Republican primaries.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  68. Daleyrocks: I don’t understand the justification for it. Reagan Democrats, if they were supporting Santorum wouldn’t have to be asked to do it because they would cast their votes on their own. He and the Democrats were specifically targeting people that are going to vote for Obama in the fall to disenfranchise Michigan Republican voters pure and simple. That includes Paul and Gingrich supporters as well. He thought it was funny on Hannity but I assure you this may cause people to take a second look at him. It also might highlight what many have suspected all along. The Democrats fear Romney the most and aren’t worried about Santorum in the least bit.

    Dave B (982f20)

  69. Dave B – Clearly Romney’s vote for Tsongas in 1992 is more timely and relevant than Santorum’s flip flop from what he told voters about Democrats polluting the Republican primary process on January 29, at least to some people.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  70. SMOD 2012! Still better than Obama.

    But it looks like I’ll get stuck with Romney. Still better than Obama.

    So I’ll hold my nose and vote for the Massachusetts Moderate in November, even though Obama will still carry California thanks to the sucker vote.

    And when Romney inevitably stabs us in the back (my bet is regarding Obamacare) I already have my slogan ready.

    One Term Romney!

    Brad (07a560)

  71. It’s odd you mention Tsongus. In Massachusetts the Independents (not Republicans) can vote in a Democrat primary. I too did the same thing that year as did a lot of other conservatives. I forget why but at the time I was compelled to do it for some reason. It had nothing to do with any type of “operation chaos” type thing. I just can’t remember why many of us did it. In Massachusetts an “Independent” is not necessarily a moderate and in most cases they are conservatives that don’t want to be labeled or affiliated with Republicans that aren’t conservative. In Massachusetts we let them earn our votes. Even people that call themselves Democrats would be considered moderate Republicans in other states. It’s different here.

    Dave B (982f20)

  72. I live in Ma. and am proudly considered unenrolled.
    Independents in this state are serious collectivists, not knowing what a conservative is.

    sickofrinos (44de53)

  73. 62. While turnout statewide was up slightly due to an increase in Donk and Indie turn out to 40% from 32%, 17,000 more voters turned out in Romney stronghold Oakland County.

    Don’t think it was backlash, Romney’s fans came to his rescue.

    Ten days ago Romney had $8 Million left, after the bulk of the buys had been made in MI. He’s got VA, MA and VT sewn up, what’s he do with the rest of his money?

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  74. 75. And yesterday did nothing to change McBain’s first ballot shortfall:

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/mathematical-case-for-brokered.html

    All it really did was give Neutron a crack in the door.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  75. 75, cont.: “My guy said Rove and
    company want to bring in someone they can control next go around.”

    Mike Castle, anyone?

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  76. 78. LTRO ‘ends’ roughly 1 Trillion net as 800 banks go for the gold.

    Ben, your ante.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  77. Well there was one fellow who passed on the stair master, so maybe that’s what they are going for,

    narciso (87e966)

  78. Silver: Mr. Romney is projected to win 33 percent of the Hispanic vote in Arizona, according to the exit poll, as compared to about 44 percent of the overall vote in the state.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  79. The problem with Mitt is not his faith, but the fact he has no fixed beliefs, in terms of policy,

    narciso (87e966)

  80. While turnout up slightly in MI over 2008, 2000 was better for total turnout and the Donks supported McVain better than Santorum:

    http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2012/02/fyi-rove-barbour-mccain-drew-more-mi-dems-in-2000-than-santorum-last-night.html

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  81. 82% of dems supported Mccain in 2008 MI primary?

    Jeez. Romney beat them then and now, and I really think they should enforce a closed primary. The primary is a party’s chance to decide. The Republicans in MI clearly preferred Romney. That I disagree means nothing. It’s not up to me… it should be up to Michigan Republicans only.

    I get my say later. Or at least I hope I do. This primary should last all 50 states, and I wish all 50 were closed primaries.

    Dustin (401f3a)


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