[Posted by Karl]
Haven’t seen Aaron around the Twitter, so here we go:
As usual, you are positively encouraged to engage in sockpuppetry on this thread. The usual rules apply.
Please be sure to switch back to your regular handle when commenting on other threads. I have made that mistake myself.
And remember, the worst sin you can commit on this thread is not being funny.
This Friday’s frivolity is a sadder kind of frivolity, i.e., the state of the GOP presidential nomination campaign.
As Jazz Shaw notes, Herman Cain still leads nationally in the new CBS poll, but just barely edges out both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Although over 60% of primary voters say the sexual harassment accusations against cain aren’t affecting their decision, his support among women has dropped from 28% in October to 15% now. And 70% say it’s too early to pick a candidate, raising the spectre of a protracted primary campaign.
Meanwhile on the Twitter, Allahpundit asks whether Cain is cratering in Iowa. He notes two polls by Insider Advantage, taken five days apart, showing a 15-point Cain lead shrinking to a 4-point lead. Two polls by the same firm eliminayes methodology issues, but any typical poll has a chance of being an outlier. Insider Advantage has Cain dropping from 30% to 23%. However, only two other polls had Cain at 30% or over in Iowa since his surge: the University of Iowa poll with a tiny 181 likely voter sample; and PPP, taken well before the sex harassment charges. The average of other recent Iowa polls (Rasmussen, CNN, Time) would put Cain at 24% — just a point higher than the latest Insider Advantage poll. Thus, it’s probably too early to conclude Cain is cratering in Iowa, but his surge has certainly been blunted.
Update: The new McClatchy-Marist poll has it Romney, Gingrich and Cain nationally, but the margin of error is 5.5%. Gingrich has the most committed supporters, but — like the CBS poll — 70% are not firmly committed to a candidate.