Patterico's Pontifications


Predicting 2012 the Nate Silver way

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 11:34 am

[Posted by Karl]

That title might be unfair, depending on how you view it, as I’ll explain later.

At the NYT, 538’s Nate Silver has set up a model for calculating the odds of various GOP candidates winning the 2012 presidential election.  He wrote a long explanation for of the model the NYT magazine, and a short one for his blog.  Silver’s model relies on three basic factors: (1) Pres. Obama’s approval ratings a year in advance of the election; (2) GDP growth in 2012; and (3) the ideology of the eventual GOP nominee.  Let’s look at each factor in turn. (more…)

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