Patterico's Pontifications

10/11/2011

The Indictment of Obama’s Economic Performance in an (Updated) Chart

Filed under: General — Aaron Worthing @ 2:19 pm



[Guest post by Aaron Worthing; if you have tips, please send them here.  Or by Twitter @AaronWorthing.]

There isn’t much to this post, but here’s a new version of a familiar chart and in one image it indicts Obama economic performance.

You can find it, here (h/t here).  The line marked “with stimulus plan” refers to what Obama said would happen if we passed the stimulus.  The line marked “Without Stimulus Plan” is what he said would happen if we didn’t.  And the red jangly line at the top is what actually happened.  So once again, we are shown that things are worse than they predicted if we did nothing.  I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating–over and over until we have new people in charge.  Logically there are only two explanations for why things are the way they are:

  1. Either the Obama administration stinks at making predictions; or
  2. They’re making it worse.

That’s it.  There is no third option.  And either way, it leads us to the same conclusion: they need to stop what they are doing.  The reason why option #2 leads to that was obvious, but the reason why option #1 leads there is less so.  The reason why their inability to predict accurately proves they need to stop is simply that if they can’t predict the future, then they can’t possibly know what the effects of their policies would be.

What we need at this point is for a President who will take the Hippocratic before attempting to treat our economic “body.”  Like Hippocrates, we need a president who understands first and foremost that he or she doesn’t know very much about the “body” that s/he is treating and therefore follow the maxim “first, do no harm.”  Obama stands before us today saying (paraphrase), “trust me, the economy would have been in much worse shape today if I didn’t intervene.”  He is like one of the quacks of old who bled a person to death’s door, claiming that if he hadn’t the patient would have been in even worse shape.

The maxim “first, do no harm” means that you don’t do something you know will hurt the “patient” on the hope (without proof) that the benefits will outweigh the harm.  Stop trying to “fix” the economy, Mr. President.  You clearly have no idea what you are doing.  And that’s not to say that any of the Republican nominees know how to fix it, either.  That’s just the problem—no one seems to be able to believe that they can be leader of the free world and not be able to fix everything.  Or maybe they are scared of the politics of appearing to do nothing.  But you can’t, Mr. President, so all you can do is let go, and let it heal itself.

Don’t nothing is the best thing you can do right now.

Update: Via Insty, we get this scary chart, too:

If you’re out of work, don’t just try to find a job–think of how you can create your own job.  Things are grim enough that it might be your best option–to be entrepreneurial.

[Posted and authored by Aaron Worthing.]

34 Responses to “The Indictment of Obama’s Economic Performance in an (Updated) Chart”

  1. Car trouble today, so i can’t post much, but i could get this out at least.

    Aaron Worthing (e7d72e)

  2. Aaron – We need more regulations. Regulations create jobs. Ask any Democrat:

    “Last week, Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., issued a report defending the Environmental Protection Agency from GOP attacks. Not only do EPA rules protect the environment, the report says, they are an engine of economic growth.

    After all, somebody has to do the work of complying with the rules, and “industries that provide environmental protection,” the report says, have “created more than a million jobs.”

    And new rules are creating still more jobs, according to the report — issued by Boxer’s Environment and Public Works Committee — like the 54,000 jobs it says will result from tougher auto fuel economy standards.

    As an added bonus, EPA rules provide “business with the opportunity to develop, construct and sell new and cleaner products.”

    Maybe we should call them “federal opportunities” instead of “federal regulations”?………….

    And while Obama apparently understands that regulations can kill jobs — he’s put off two big EPA rules out of concern that they will smother the barely breathing economy — he doesn’t seem to think getting rid of existing ones will matter one way or another.

    “Does anybody really think that that is going to create jobs right now and meet the challenges of a global economy?” he said at a press conference last week.

    Given the level of economic understanding on display among our leaders, is it any wonder the economy is foundering?

    After all, if regulations were job-creation engines, the economy should be in danger of overheating right about now. Obama has overseen the fastest growth in new federal rules ever, imposing 75 new major regulations in his first 26 months in office at a cost of more than $40 billion, according to the Heritage Foundation.”

    http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/587613/201110101854/Dems-Stimulus-Idea-More-Regulations.htm

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  3. God, if we could only get Calvin Coolidge back !

    Mike K (8f3f19)

  4. My sentiments exactly, Mike.

    We need someone who is convinced that he is not omnipotent, and that there a millions of individuals better capable of solving life’s daily problems than is the government.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b0aaae)

  5. I don’t know that it can be objectively established but I sincerely think that the Obama administration’s policies have made the economic situation worse. Now, I grant that it was the worse recession in my lifetime, and it was a different kind of recession than recent ones, so much of the predictions that the White House economists relied upon to make their silly projection of the wonders of their faux “stimulus” plan were problematic.

    But that still does not explain that the shape of the “recovery” remains flat to this day. There is no historical equivalent since the Great Depression of such a prolonged economic downturn.

    And since much of the length of the Great Depression came from counter-production policies of the “New Deal”, I think its fair to blame the current situation on being worsened by Obama’s anti-business regulatory POV, his class warfare rhetoric and the job-killing effects of Obamacare.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  6. 😆 Obama is a turd.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  7. DB is succinct, and to the point.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b0aaae)

  8. Romney is the GOP obama.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  9. After all, somebody has to do the work of complying with the rules

    By Boxer’s logic, if the government created an agency whose sole purpose was to go out and beat the crap out of random individuals, it could create millions of jobs for bodyguards.

    Chuck Bartowski (4c6c0c)

  10. We should give money to George Soros and not Rupert Murdoch?

    He and Jamie Dimon are ultra-left obots.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  11. “job-killing effects of Obamacare.”

    SPQR – The effects of the passage of ObamaCare on private sector job growth are the same as pictures of Hillary Clinton on boners.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  12. daleyrocks, well, maybe worse given that there are no Obamacare fetishes.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  13. SPQR – You might be right. There are some strange people out there.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  14. The effects of the passage of ObamaCare on private sector job growth are the same as pictures of Hillary Clinton Elizabeth Warren on boners.

    FTFY!

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b0aaae)

  15. By Boxer’s logic, if the government created an agency whose sole purpose was to go out and beat the crap out of random individuals, it could create millions of jobs for bodyguards.

    Comment by Chuck Bartowski

    Well–that will certainly bring happiness to the retail arms industry. They are experiencing a significant down turn lately:
    I-Team: Obama “gun boom” may be over

    The so called “Obama boom” is well documented. In Florida, from’08-‘09, the number of concealed weapon or firearm licenses issued rose by 23% from the previous year. In ‘09-‘10, the number exploded again, this time by an additional 41%. The year before President Obama took office, 85,937 Floridians were issued new concealed gun licenses. In his second year in office, that number was 175,555.

    However, that trend appears to be changing. In ’10-’11, the number of concealed weapon licenses fell 30%, from the all-time high of 175,555 to 123,759. That’s the first decline in licenses issued since 2002.

    Vote for the Jobs Act (TM) -Pres Obama

    BfC (2ebea6)

  16. BfC, they are probably reaching the “saturation” point.

    Here in CA I expect the next two years will see a large up-tick in long-arm sales as everyone will want to acquire stuff before the new Long-Gun Registration that Moonbeam signed this past weekend kicks-in in Jan-14.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b0aaae)

  17. There is actually a third possibility.

    c. Our economic data sucks and we have no idea what is happening.

    This one is certainly true.

    http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/09/27/how-macroeconomic-statistics-failed-the-us/

    “Here’s one big reason why the current economic weakness in the US has come as such a shock. It’s not the only reason, but it’s an important one, and it hasn’t gotten nearly the attention it deserves: the state of macroeconomic data-gathering in the US is pretty weak.

    “In January 2009 the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated that the economy was shrinking at an annual rate of 3.8%. That number has been revised downward ever since and the current number is -8.9%”
    —-

    craig henry (6e31ee)

  18. And a fourth possibility: they are lousy at making predictions AND they are making it worse AND they have no idea what is happening.

    steve (254463)

  19. “The state of the economy is so bad these days that even negative statistics — such as last week’s unemployment report that showed the level of joblessness stuck at an unacceptably high rate — are often treated as good news, because the numbers are not as bad as some feared. But despite all the spinning by both the Obama administration and their cheerleaders in the media, the prospects for a recovery appear dim and are getting dimmer all the time.

    One of the latest and most daunting predictions of financial doom comes from the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York forecasting firm that during the last 15 years has been right every time about recessions while issuing no false alarms. Their verdict provides chilling news for both the president as well as the country: not only is the weak recovery from the last recession over, but a new recession is certain.

    As the New York Times reported last weekend, while there are still some who provide more hopeful predictions, economists at this institute are certain the numbers point to another drastic downturn. They say America’s Gross Domestic Product will go negative by the first quarter of 2012 if not sooner. Unemployment will likely go back into the double digits. As for the chances of averting this outcome, forget it. According to Lakshman Achuthan, the institute’s chief operations officer, “We’ve entered a vicious cycle, and it’s too late: a recession can’t be averted.”

    Considering that economic confidence is already low, the prospect of another recession is terrible news for the country. It is even worse for Barack Obama, whose re-election hopes rest on the economy recovering by next summer. The institute’s forecast is more or less a guarantee of his defeat.”

    http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/10/11/forecast-recession-inevitable-obama-defeat/

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  20. Hillary Clinton and boners?

    😯

    DohBiden (d54602)

  21. See, a reprise of Jimmah Cahtah would have been a best-case scenario.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b0aaae)

  22. Aaron, I continue to learn from your posts. The desperation is pretty disconcerting. It doesn’t instill confidence, and that lack of confidence is a big reason for the doubling of Unemployment and the decline of the stock market by over 50% in just 15 months; the S&P is where it was in 1996.

    My explanation, in part, is that the impending election of Obama and his knowns (unfriendly to business and a tax raiser) and unknowns (what is this going to mean for value of goods and services?) was a demonstrated crisis of confidence in all markets.
    Employment and stock markets reacted to future taxation, government spending, healthcare impacts, trade and defense uncertainties. The corresponding charts are shocking, and the only defense lefties have for this evidence is “coincidence.” But let the reader decide…
    The stock market is a forward-looking indicator of economic activity and expectation. Obama was elected in early November 2008, but looked like a likely winner months earlier. Plenty of talk about some big changes that were going to cost a lot of money. You can see the market fall off a cliff, by looking at this chart of the this chart of the S&P 500.
    Unemployment is also forward-looking, as employers won’t cut or hire until resource requirements can be predicted. Unemployment averaged about 5% for the decade, until just before the November 2008 elections as this wallclimbing unemployment chart shows.

    My own bottom line is that blame is only helpful politically. Real people are hurting. Every statistic represents a real person with hopes and dreams and a stake in our future.

    TimesDisliker (fe9206)

  23. Times Guy! Where ya been, my brother?

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  24. President Obama told us that unemployment would top out at 9% if we didn’t pass the porkulus plan, but be held to 8% if we did. While we can’t know what would have happened had it not been passed, by a rather interesting coincidence, the unemployment rate has been holding steady now at 9.1%, right at the time that the stimulus plan has just about run its course; we are, in effect, at the point where there is no more stimulus plan, and unemployment is right where the President said it would be without the plan, though projected forward a couple of years.

    If the President and his economic minions got it right concerning where unemployment would be without the porkulus plan, does that not stand as evidence that the pork plan being passed actually harmed the economy?

    The Dana who sees things as they are (f68855)

  25. just getting cold in
    the shadow of the master
    you ColonelHaiku

    TimesDislaiku (fe9206)

  26. c’mon now, Times Guy
    wife’s best-in-class clam chowder
    now rise from stomach!

    ColonelHaiku (a4b693)

  27. Here in CA I expect the next two years will see a large up-tick in long-arm sales as everyone will want to acquire stuff before the new Long-Gun Registration that Moonbeam signed this past weekend kicks-in in Jan-14.

    Comment by Another Drew – Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks!

    Might be another reason too:
    California: Catch, Dive Nuts, then Early Release over 2011-2012

    In 2009 the state was ordered to reduce the prison population by 46,000 inmates to get down to what judges decided would be a reasonable level. It was the largest prisoner release order ever from a federal court.

    Kennedy cited suicidal inmates being held for prolonged periods in telephone booth-sized cages, backlogs of up to 700 prisoners waiting to see a doctor for care and as many as 54 inmates sharing a single toilet.

    He said drastic action was needed to prevent “needless suffering and death.”

    California’s 33 adult prisons were designed to hold about 80,000 inmates and now have about 145,000.

    Kennedy cited suicidal inmates being held for prolonged periods in telephone booth-sized cages, backlogs of up to 700 prisoners waiting to see a doctor for care and as many as 54 inmates sharing a single toilet.

    He said drastic action was needed to prevent “needless suffering and death.”

    California’s 33 adult prisons were designed to hold about 80,000 inmates and now have about 145,000.

    In 2009 the state was ordered to reduce the prison population by 46,000 inmates to get down to what judges decided would be a reasonable level. It was the largest prisoner release order ever from a federal court.

    Not much good is going to come from this…

    BfC (07804b)

  28. On September 30, Judge Doherty of the United States District Court for the Western District of Louisiana handed down a decision in Vidrine v. United States awarding $1.7 million in damages for a malicious prosecution.

    What ultimately secured an indictment against Hubert Vidrine was not Mike Franklin, as Keith Phillips testified — it was Keith Phillips’ and Phillips’ “tweaking” of the Mike Franklin story to create facts, as Agent Phillips wanted to see them.

    One of the more distressing allegations made at trial, involved allegations of [EPA] Agent Phillips’ sexual, extra-marital affair (and its subsequent “cover up”) with [EPA] Agent Barnhill. The evidence strongly indicated Agent Phillips deliberately used his investigation and prosecution of Hubert Vidrine to foster, further, facilitate and cloak his extra-marital affair with Agent Barnhill, and perhaps, to exert improper influence over the manner in which she investigated and reported upon this case.

    A. Weiner (d1c681)

  29. New energy efficient streetlights installed with over a million dollars of stimulus funds failing.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-streetlights-lake-shore-drive-1011-20111011,0,1059850.story

    elissa (72f6fc)

  30. A movement gurgles.
    Coming eruption signals
    chowder hit bottom.

    Roscoe (ba72e8)

  31. Re: Vidrine v US. It’s a long and sobering read, and a clear example of malicious prosecution. EPA Agent Phillips and FBI Agent Barnhill belong behind bars and the story of their persecution of Vidrine is the kind of travesty which should be required reading for law enforcement personnel.

    That our legal system eventually worked to exonerate Vidrine is somewhat reassuring.

    ropelight (8700a0)

  32. We’re in a recession because Obamas minions think banksta bailouts are popular.

    The rich obots won’t get taxed.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  33. There simply has to be something racist in those graphs.

    Has to be.

    Icy (ea0b42)

  34. Aaron, I know even you are suckered into using the U-3 data, which does not measure the true unemployment picture. Please use the U-6 numbers which are devastating for our country.

    http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

    hstad (58736e)


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