Patterico's Pontifications

1/30/2011

Britain’s Met Office Caught Hiding the Decline

Filed under: General — Aaron Worthing @ 8:03 pm

[Guest post by Aaron Worthing; if you have tips, please send them here.]

Remember folks the consensus is in and it’s always right.  And pay no attention to items like this:

Dr Benny Peiser and Dr David Whitehouse, of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), have written to John Hirst, chief executive of the beleaguered Met Office, asking for an explanation of a press release issued by his organisation on January 20 and headed “2010 – a near record year”. This won headlines by claiming that last year was hotter than any other in the past decade.

When the two men examined the original data from which this claim was derived – compiled by the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit and the Met Office’s Hadley Centre – it clearly showed 2010 as having been cooler than 2005 (and 1998) and equal to 2003. It emerged that, for the purposes of the press release, the data had been significantly adjusted.

Comparing the actual data for each year, from 2001 to 2010, with that given in the press release shows that for four years the original figure has been adjusted downwards. Only for 2010 was the data revised upwards, by the largest adjustment of all, allowing the Met Office to claim that 2010 was the hottest year of the decade.

How many times do these people have to openly fake their data before we start to doubt the whole thing?

H/t: Instapundit.

[Posted and authored by Aaron Worthing.]

53 Responses to “Britain’s Met Office Caught Hiding the Decline”

  1. Btw, you might consider continuing the lively debate on manbearpig in this thread. :-)

    Aaron Worthing (73a7ea)

  2. You mean like how Gore has admitted that biodiesel was a bad idea? Or how T. Boone “Slim” Pickin’s is getting out of Wind Power because it isn’t even REMOTELY economical? :)

    Scott Jacobs (d027b8)

  3. These people are presumably smart. Why would the consistently lie about the facts if the facts are on their side, and they are smart enough to understand the issue?

    Hmmm. Something doesn’t add up.

    Oh, you tell me they have a financial stake in people being scared of man made global warming? Oh. Adds up pretty well, then.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  4. Let see they lied for at least 15 years, so let’s assume they lie this year, just saying

    narciso (e888ae)

  5. One of the things that has really infuriated me about climate science and the AGW propaganda is that the AGW proponents have so utterly contaminated the data, that I don’t know if honest scientists will be able to sort out what is really going on.

    Or have any interest in diving in and trying.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  6. I think it is more ego than economics.

    Simon Jester (3c0156)

  7. ________________________________________________

    You mean like how Gore has admitted that biodiesel was a bad idea?

    I’m posting the following in honor of the unholy alliance of the we-love-Al-Gore crowd and some big agri-industrialists:

    healthandenergy.com:

    David Pimental, a leading Cornell University agricultural expert, has calculated that powering the average U.S. automobile for one year on ethanol (blended with gasoline) derived from corn would require 11 acres of farmland, the same space needed to grow a year’s supply of food for seven people. Adding up the energy costs of corn production and its conversion into ethanol, 131,000 BTUs are needed to make one gallon of ethanol. One gallon of ethanol has an energy value of only 77,000 BTUS. Thus, 70 percent more energy is required to produce ethanol than the energy that actually is in it. Every time you make one gallon of ethanol, there is a net energy loss of 54,000 BTUs.

    Mr. Pimentel concluded that “abusing our precious croplands to grow corn for an energy-inefficient process that yields low-grade automobile fuels amounts to unsustainable subsidized food burning”.

    ^ The folks who didn’t see that one coming from a mile away are pretty much the same types who continue to want humankind to wring its hands over AGW.

    Since such environmentalists are so concerned about too much carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, they should all gather together one day and, to prevent their own big mouths from releasing that noxious gas, hold their breath until they pass out.

    Mark (411533)

  8. Learn something about the credibility of the sources Aaron Worthing cites. In this post he cites Christopher Booker:

    Booker is frequently derided for his inaccurate and sometimes dishonest reporting. George Monbiot draws attention to Booker’s attack on Michael Mann of Hockey Stick fame. Mann’s paper was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Booker attempted to refute it by using the claims of unqualified bloggers to refute peer-reviewed studies.[3] In December 2009 Booker (along with Richard North (blogger) made allegations of financial impropriety against IPCC Chairman Dr Rajendra Pachauri. These were published in the Sunday Telegraph which subsequently withdrew them after a libel action[4]. In August 2010, the Telegraph apologized to Pachauri after accounting firm KPMG found his business dealings spotless[5].

    To highlight the level of inaccuracy and falsehood in skeptical journalism the Guardian launched a prize in 2009 to be “presented to whoever crams as many misrepresentations, distortions and falsehoods into a single article, statement, lecture, film or interview about climate change”. This was called the “Christopher Booker prize” [6] The first nomination was inevitably Christopher Booker for an article about arctic sea ice with six errors in 900 words. [7]

    Also in the cited article is S. Fred Singer.

    A former Philip Morris contractor who produced junk science to show smoking was not harmful. He received his PhD in Physics in 1948.

    This is what passes for credibility in the wingnut circles.

    Both NASA and NOAA have affirmed 2010 to be one of the hottest years on record. The decade that just ended included nine of the 10 hottest years on record.

    Just a coincidence.

    Sims (62e777)

  9. We are legion.

    SockPuppet (d4bbf1)

  10. Both NASA and NOAA have affirmed 2010 to be one of the hottest years on record.

    Is this the same NASA that admitted it screwed up prior temp recordings, and that previous “hottest ever” years were not, in fact, hot?

    And if we had so many of “10 hottest years”,, why is the global average actually DOWN?

    Scott Jacobs (d027b8)

  11. Mann’s paper was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Booker attempted to refute it by using the claims of unqualified bloggers to refute peer-reviewed studies.

    He’s referring to McIntyre and McKitrick?

    Scrutineer (b496e6)

  12. Mann’s paper was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Booker attempted to refute it by using the claims of unqualified bloggers to refute peer-reviewed studies.

    Would this be the paper on a graph that has been shown to be inaccurate?

    Scott Jacobs (d027b8)

  13. Sims – Why don’t you have actual links in your citation. Pachauri’s conflicts of interest were not well known prior to the 2009 Climategasm Conference. Strange people actually want to gloss over them. They would not pass muster with U.S. public companies.

    daleyrocks (479a30)

  14. We are legion. And growing.

    SockPuppet (d4bbf1)

  15. Hey Sims/Dusty/whoever

    We frown on not using the same name. Pick one, or you’ll end up in moderation – not because of what you say, but because you refuse to hold to a consistent identity.

    Scott Jacobs (d027b8)

  16. Strange how you know the name of this ‘coward’, and yet you hide behind proxy servers.

    And your example of the ‘truth’ he’s afraid of? Nothing, apparently, but appeals to authority and ad homs. Yawn.

    If you’ve been moderated here, it’s because you tried to reach out and negatively affect someone IRL, like Yelverton and IMDW.

    Scum.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  17. Pretty damn douchey to post someone’s home address, in a thread about someone who many theorize set bombs because he wanted to avoid scrutiny of a more serious crime, and then whine that the reason you’re moderated is not because of that.

    It’s simply pathetic. Especially in IMDW’s case, since he has been royally trolling threads here for years.

    Of course, imdw was never that smart to begin with, so no surprise all he’s got to offer is cutting and pasting someone else’s opinion in order to prove to us that someone holds the left’s POV on global warming (wow!).

    What a nutjob.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  18. No, Dusty…

    See, the rule is actually Pat’s. So begging him to get ride of the guy is pretty f**king stupid.

    It also helps when you have evidence. You keep touting critics of Mann as wrong, but it’s actually been shown that Mann’s graph was incredibly distorted.

    When you have to “adjust” the data you have to make it fit your theory, what you SHOULD do is adjust your theory.

    So, with that, how do you explain how the MET was wrong two years in a row in regards to England’s winters?

    Scott Jacobs (d027b8)

  19. Funny, a guy who cites to Moonbat, Michael Mann, and The Guardian trying to accuse others of holding biased views about global warming …

    grs (f6a9ef)

  20. Stephen McIntyre, Northwest Exploration Co., Ltd., Toronto, Ontario, Canada

    That’s pretty sneaky, “hid[ing] his ties to the mining industry” right out in the open like that.

    Getting published in Geophysical Research Letters doesn’t count if you’ve also written for Energy and Environment?

    And who cares if he doesn’t have an advanced degree? He apparently understands statistics a lot better than Mann.

    Scrutineer (b496e6)

  21. Dusty et. al are amateurs. They actually believe their talking points are new.

    daleyrocks (479a30)

  22. Daley

    For your enjoyment:

    http://www.fraserinstitute.org/research-news/display.aspx?id=13069

    Yes, she has lost it and revealed herself as flaky, delusional, dishonest, slightly paranoid, and in way over her head. Palin should have never been elected governor. She wasn’t ready and those of us who voted for her should have known it. The lesson is that personality, image and looks should never trump substance when evaluating a candidate.

    Wow!

    Let’s start with the worst piece of legislation in the history of the state, Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share or ACES.

    The evidence is overwhelming ACES is killing Alaska jobs and drying up future investment.

    When BP announced in July of last year it will invest $1.5 billion to develop Liberty field, we learned the oil company giant would incorporate the world’s biggest land-based drill unit, with power two to three times that of a typical North Slope rig, and that the investment would create hundreds of high paying jobs and extend the life of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. This project is a big deal and the kind of investment we have seen very little of lately in Alaska.

    It’s the kind of investment you see in many other U.S. states where the oil industry is booming. Companies are pouring billions of dollars into exploration in states like Louisiana and Oklahoma. So why are we not seeing more investments like the Liberty field in Alaska? The answer is easy. It’s because of ACES. BP says if Liberty were on state land instead of federal, it would have scrapped the project. Because Liberty is on federal land it is not subject to the ridiculously high production taxes Sarah Palin’s ACES gave us.

    EricPWJohnson (818ac7)

  23. DRJ

    Once you stated that you dont support Palin because she’s a woman but because you have stances in common – you might want to rethink this:

    One of the many great myths Sarah Palin used to rise to power is the idea oil companies have to invest their limited future capital in Alaska and therefore we can treat the industry anyway we want. For ACES to work we have to accept the notion taxes don’t deter investment. Nothing could be further from the truth. Oil companies only have so much capital to invest and, like the Liberty field, will only invest if prospects pencil out.

    Remember ACES raised production taxes on the oil industry 400 percent when prices are high. And oil companies make their investment decisions on how much they will earn when prices are high. This is another reason ACES kills so many investment dollars in Alaska.

    The focus for Alaska now should be to undo ACES. Remember the original ACES bill took a very different form as law after liberal Democrats in the Legislature were through with it.

    It’s time for new Gov. Sean Parnell to take up the fight against liberal Democrats and undo ACES. Parnell must abandon his “Palin can do no wrong” stance and clean up the mess she left us. Sean, let’s make Alaska competitive again.

    EricPWJohnson (818ac7)

  24. Eric, wtf does Palin have to do with Global Warming?

    Scott Jacobs (d027b8)

  25. Daley and DRJ

    This has got to hurt:

    The 2009 Global Petroleum Report showed Alaska ranking 78th when it comes to oil companies investing in exploration and production. We dropped from 46th in 2008. The report cites a number of factors for the decline in Alaska’s competitiveness. High taxes and royalty rates are listed as top deterrents for the oil industry when it comes to investing in Alaska.

    The international study showed nine U.S. states ranked in the top 10 which makes Alaska’s dismal 78th ranking that much more troublesome

    Nothing like facts to shore up a position that Palin’s a fake

    EricPWJohnson (818ac7)

  26. Scott

    Everything’s Palins fault – I thought that was obvious

    EricPWJohnson (818ac7)


  27. How many times do these people have to openly fake their data before we start to doubt the whole thing?

    DUUUUUUUDE!!

    C’mon — These idiots still believe in **communism** !!

    Browser Snake (c9dcd8)

  28. (Emphasis added to original):

    Since such environmentalists are so concerned about too much carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, they should all gather together one day and, to prevent their own big mouths from releasing that noxious gas, hold their breath until they pass out.

    … and then for about 10 minutes longer.

    Browser Snake (c9dcd8)

  29. Just FYI

    Browser Snake == IgotBupkis, President, United Anarchist Society (c9dcd8)

  30. The adherents of Mann, Moonbat, et al. have lost the war. No one listening anymore to people who whinge about how international flight is worse than pedophilia, then fly around the world to tell everyone else to stop flying.

    They are hardly worth a flying mock anymore.

    Mork (58aa41)

  31. Mork

    mmm, i do suspect that most international flights to bangkok are worse than pedophilia.

    As i joked to a friend once, when that suspect in the jonbenet ramsy case turned out to have been living in bangkok, “we should arrest anyone who goes to bangkok, just on principle.” lol

    Aaron Worthing (e7d72e)

  32. Aaron: true dat. But Moonbat was specifically denouncing transatlantic flights, as I recall.

    It’s OK if you’re part of the Gaia cult, though.

    Mork (58aa41)

  33. Maybe we should ask the AGW freaks what was so bad about the MWP and the Roman Warm Period.

    Richard Aubrey (59fa91)

  34. “When the two men [Peiser and Whitehouse of GWPF] examined the original data …” I searched thegwpf.org for their examination, and didn’t find it. All I found was the Booker Sunday Telegraph clip cited in this post. Does anybody have a link to the actual details of their examination?

    gp (72be5d)

  35. “Eric, wtf does Palin have to do with Global Warming?”

    Scott – Who knows?

    EricPW has been pantsed so many times on his Palin talking points all he does now is spam threads with oil industry points about the ACES legislation everyone knows Alaskans are considering changing. New information – no. Value added – none.

    Here is a more balanced look at the ACES legislation produced by the State of Alaska in early 2010, which contradicts many of the oil industry contentions EricPW keeps spamming on these threads. For some reason he has not commented on this study.

    EricPW has also not apologized for calling Palin a racist.

    EricPW has not found a reputable conservative who shares his views of Palin’s fiscal performance as a governor.

    daleyrocks (479a30)

  36. > “Eric, wtf does Palin have to do with Global Warming?”

    I don’t know, but if we were really concerned about the temperature of the globe, we would do something about all the hot air coming out of the Capital building. 😉

    Aaron Worthing (e7d72e)

  37. i know, easy joke, but i couldn’t resist.

    Aaron Worthing (e7d72e)

  38. Daley,

    From the same group you said did a balanced study on ACEs – they calculated it was a 1 yr 60% tax increase

    ooof thats gonna leave a mark

    In FY 2008, a period of very high oil prices and profits, ACES generated $6.8 billion in production tax revenue, compared with $4.2 billion which would have been received under PPT and $1.3 billion which would have been received under ELF.

    EricPWJohnson (818ac7)

  39. I find that a squeegie followed up with a good ole fashioned cotton mop can get those pesky self esteem stains out of ones office carpet

    EricPWJohnson (818ac7)

  40. Daley,

    I want to thank you for agreeing that Palin raised taxes 400% to 300% for 2008 and 2009 for the taxpayers of America.

    EricPWJohnson (818ac7)

  41. EricPW

    Obsession is not just a perfume.

    Stop the threadjack.

    daleyrocks (479a30)

  42. “In fiscal year 2009, during which west coast oil prices average $68.34, ACES generated just over $3.1 billion. This compares with roughly $2 billion that would have been generated under PPT and $858 million under the earlier ELF system.”

    EricPW – In one year, Palin cut oil company taxes 54% from the prior year, from $6.8 billion down to $3.1 billion!!!!!!!!

    daleyrocks (479a30)

  43. McIntyre is so unqualified to criticize Mann’s work that he got Mann et al to correct numerous errors, start rewriting papers to avoid McIntyre’s analysis of their statistical methods. McIntyre got NASA to correct errors in the GISS series that exaggerated warming, etc. etc.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  44. As evidence of BBC bias, this article is strong. As for global warming truth / untruth, it can’t do much more than confirm one’s bias either way.

    carlitos (a3d259)

  45. Mann is so qualified that he will not turn over work product from his days at UVA to prove that he did not commit fraud with government grant money.

    daleyrocks (479a30)

  46. Daley

    Again thanks for pointing out to everyone her tax increase

    Couldnt of said it better myself

    EricPWJohnson (818ac7)

  47. “Nothing like facts to shore up a position that Palin’s a fake”

    Oh, I think we all know who the ‘fake’ is-North Slope crude, back when it wasn’t blended and had a market price, was worth half that of Saudi light.

    North Slope workers are the highest paid in the world and fly home every couple of weeks.

    The Aleyska pipeline is a sieve the Feds refuse to allow to be replaced.

    The reason this line hasn’t come to light B4 now is there’s no there there.

    gary gulrud (790d43)

  48. gary

    Ummm, okay..

    EricPWJohnson (818ac7)

  49. Having seen a few winter’s this one is notable in we above the 45th have had one day peaking above freezing since B4 Thanksgiving. Snows most days, the dry tiny flakes coming with cold temps.

    Colder and snowier than average, IMO.

    The 80’s had by far the warmest summers. July ’82 we had 3 highs above 100, only one shy of 90, but just.

    The year Yellowstone burned, ’88, seemed hotter from start to finish.

    The warmers are hoping to keep the meme going but lying eyes the world over are tough to cover over.

    gary gulrud (790d43)

  50. Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”

    ropelight (4482fb)

  51. “Again thanks for pointing out to everyone her tax increase”

    ?

    Don’t recall disputing it, just your lies about it.

    What do EricPW and MSNBC have in common? Palin derangement syndrome.

    daleyrocks (479a30)

  52. Ecotards of the world unite!

    To infinity and beyond!!!!!!!11ty!!!!!

    daleyrocks (479a30)

  53. Yes, one anecdote only, but my grandmother talked about how hot it was back around 1929 or so. One of her children was a small infant. She said she put the child in a bassinet out in the yard between two hanging sheets that she kept wet. The evaporation of the water lowered the temperature surrounding the baby. (Like a fan blowing mist on the sidelines of a football game.)

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)


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