Mandate-Smandate — What About All Those Pre-Election Polls???
[Posted by WLS Shipwrecked]
Among other things, posterity should record the blatant electioneering on the part of the MSM and the polling organizations they hire. In my post earlier today predicting the outcome, I noted that the Battleground Poll has the honor of coming the closest over the last several election cycles to being correct in predicting the actual nationwide vote for each candidate.
This morning that poll predicted a 50.8 to 47.4 split in favor of Obama.
Not all the numbers are in yet, but it is looking like the final tally will be somewhere close to 51-48.
So, how did the media groups do?
ABC/WaPo – 53-44
CNN — 53-46
CBS/NYT — 51-42
Gallup — 55-44 (Good thing they gave us both their “Traditional” and “Expanded” versions)
NBC/WSJ — 51-43
Rueters/Zogby — 54-43
Ipsos/McClatchey — 53-46
Fox – 50-43
Everyone of these polls is off by double — and it all comes from putting their fingers on the scale in terms of weighting their LV samples for expectations about turnout. It happens election after election.
Or you can wait for, say, all the results to be in before launching into the right wing media persecution complex.
It’s already 52-47, with most of the outstanding vote being in CA and the other western states. Call it a 6 point gap when it’s done, and . . . oh, most of the media polls look fine. Especially when you add in the +/3-4% stated margin for error on each side.
No, better to post an analysis based on a made up “final result”.
JT (afade9) — 11/5/2008 @ 12:44 am9% ABC/WaPo – 53-44
7% CNN — 53-46
9% CBS/NYT — 51-42
11% Gallup — 55-44
8% NBC/WSJ — 51-43
11% Rueters/Zogby — 54-43
7% Ipsos/McClatchey — 53-46
7% Fox – 50-43
Reminds me of the days of the old Star-Tribune Minnesota poll.
htom (412a17) — 11/5/2008 @ 12:52 amNone of them picked McCain to win, did they?
snuffles (677ec2) — 11/5/2008 @ 12:53 amI Agree with JT WlS, give it a rest, until the results are all in. One thing is for sure: Obama has won decisively.
People in New York are dancing and singing in the streets.
It’s spetacular. I’ve never seen so much joy in my life.
Peter (e70d1c) — 11/5/2008 @ 12:56 amFiveThirtyEight pretty much nailed it state by state, missing so far only Indiana.
Aplomb (b6fba6) — 11/5/2008 @ 12:56 amSo you’re saying that Fox news was int he tank for Barak Obama? Really? Wow, that’s a new twist.
Joe (c0e4f8) — 11/5/2008 @ 2:34 amSo you’re saying that Fox news was in the tank for Barak Obama? Wow, who’d have thunk it?
Joe (c0e4f8) — 11/5/2008 @ 2:35 amWhether Obama got 50%+1 or 66% of the vote is really irrelevant. Over the last 4 years I’ve learned from the democrats that it’s not only patriotic but it’s expected that one challenges and fights their opponent in the White House. Let round 1 begin…
liontooth (0edfdb) — 11/5/2008 @ 3:02 amI suppose one cannot underestimate the tools that backwoods folks still employ to disenfranchise minorities.
truthnjustice (d99227) — 11/5/2008 @ 3:25 amtruthnjustice : Examples please. Commentary without examples is biovation.
longwalker (ce69ff) — 11/5/2008 @ 3:37 amTime to move on to 2010
Lets start picking off the vulnerable districts now there are 50 up for grabs
They dont have OBamas coattails and we have alot of recruiting to do
Time to take the recruiting out of the beltway and into the midway
Lets get going
And the Following Senators are up
Bayh, Evan (D-IN)
EricPWJohnson (b61ef9) — 11/5/2008 @ 4:31 amBoxer, Barbara (D-CA)
Dodd, Christopher J. (D-CT)
Dorgan, Byron L. (D-ND)
Feingold, Russell D. (D-WI)
Inouye, Daniel K. (D-HI)
Leahy, Patrick J. (D-VT)
Lincoln, Blanche L. (D-AR)
Mikulski, Barbara A. (D-MD)
Murray, Patty (D-WA)
Obama, Barack (D-IL)
Reid, Harry (D-NV)
Salazar, Ken (D-CO)
Schumer, Charles E. (D-NY)
Wyden, Ron (D-OR)
Bennett, Robert F. (R-UT)
Bond, Christopher S. (R-MO)
Brownback, Sam (R-KS)
Bunning, Jim (R-KY)
Burr, Richard (R-NC)
Coburn, Tom (R-OK)
Crapo, Mike (R-ID)
DeMint, Jim (R-SC)
Grassley, Chuck (R-IA)
Gregg, Judd (R-NH)
Isakson, Johnny (R-GA)
Martinez, Mel (R-FL)
McCain, John (R-AZ)
Murkowski, Lisa (R-AK)
Shelby, Richard C. (R-AL)
Specter, Arlen (R-PA)
Thune, John (R-SD)
Vitter, David (R-LA)
Voinovich, George V. (R-OH)
Boy, it sure is a great thing that Justin doesn’t allow comments. After all, a post on where the highly volatile MN Senate race stood at 12:53 AM PST demands “substantive reactions … that you get far more often in actual blog posts that link back to the original post, rather than off the cuff ramblings in the comment section.”
FWIW, the Secretary of State now has Norm Coleman beating Stuart Smalley by a razor-thin 1,210,197 votes to 1,209,079, while CNN has him winning 1,210,740 to 1,209,983. Sorry I had to post the update here rather than where it belongs.
Xrlq (62cad4) — 11/5/2008 @ 4:39 amFrom what I’m seeing in post election analysis, the “huge turnout in new young voters” seems to be mostly myth. I saw a figure of 18% versus 17% in past elections.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/5/2008 @ 5:52 amWLS Shipwrecked, numbers have a liberal bias.
PC (b4b303) — 11/5/2008 @ 6:30 amAs of 9Am, the Kos scoreboard has Obama’s margin at 52.3-46.4. Given that it wasn’t decisive, you think we could give pollsters a break for a 1% margin of error.
glasnost (c75a98) — 11/5/2008 @ 6:37 amWith respect to a “mandate” it is interesting to me that in states that went to Obama with significant margins like California and Colorado, that the initiative to ban gay marriage ( Calif ) and an initiative to ban affirmative action ( Colo ) are too close to call still this morning.
The nation went strongly for Obama but has not actually shifted much from its centrist ideological position.
SPQR (26be8b) — 11/5/2008 @ 6:48 amThe election results so far tell me that abortion trumps gay rights in California. Prop 4 lost but 8 won.
The Senate losses were less than feared although Democrats will blow right through the 60 vote rule for cloture that the gang of 14 tiptoed around when the Republicans were in the majority. Rules are made to be broken.
The illegal fund raising and registration fraud by ACORN will vanish into the memory hole.
Election of Franken to the Senate would put the appropriate face on the Democratic majority for the next two years until the Obama economy elects a Republican Senate majority.
Bush and his “compassionate conservatism” have wrecked the Republican brand. Maybe Joe the Plumber should go to work for the Republican policy committee. It would be a novelty to see someone who knows how the economy works formulating policy.
When unemployment is 10% next year, we’ll see how much those Obama voters are celebrating. Of course, it will be the Bush recession. With the attention span of most Obama voters, Bush will be forgotten by a year from now.
It is time to get liquid. Cash will be king when this recession really gets going once Pelosi, Reid and Obama get their program up to speed. It will be a rough ride.
At least I’m not an Israeli. Or an Iraqi.
Mike K (2cf494) — 11/5/2008 @ 7:17 amThe “young voter turnout” mandra has been chanted, IIRC, since Eisenhower/Stevenson/52. The pollsters have consistently overestimated the influence and numbers of young voters going into the final days of every election.
Despite all the hype and “Rock Star” GOTV concerts, yesterday’s “youth vote” was less than that of 2004.
longwalker (dda662) — 11/5/2008 @ 7:24 amEricPWJohnson, you may want to re-check your list. I don’t think Barack Obama will be running for Senate in 2010.
Xrlq (4c59c7) — 11/5/2008 @ 8:00 amEvidence, please.
WLS – They still have not yet reported their in-kind donations to the Baracky campaign.
JD (5b4781) — 11/5/2008 @ 8:10 amComment by Xrlq — 11/5/2008 @ 8:00 am
No, but whoever is appointed by the IL Gov to replace him will be running for re-election.
Another Drew (579482) — 11/5/2008 @ 8:15 amAny of you from IL want to throw out a name from the Daley Machine on who is going to replace the junior senator from IL in the Senate?
Jan Schakowsky – Ugh. Gov. Blagojevich. Tammy Duckworth. Emil Jones.
JD (5b4781) — 11/5/2008 @ 8:20 amNo, but whoever is appointed by the IL Gov to replace him will be running for re-election.
Any of you from IL want to throw out a name from the Daley Machine on who is going to replace the junior senator from IL in the Senate?
Jesse Jackson, Jr.
nk (95bfab) — 11/5/2008 @ 8:25 amHow can you leave out Rasmussen? He called it 52-46 and he’s been right the last three elections.
howard432 (cc8b85) — 11/5/2008 @ 8:55 am53-47 is what the numbers look like this morning … eg, a 6 point gap. That’s pretty consistent with the polls, if you assume that most undecideds broke for McCain.
538.com was dead on.
aphrael (9e8ccd) — 11/5/2008 @ 9:28 am53-47 is what the numbers look like this morning … eg, a 6 point gap. That’s pretty consistent with the polls
Did the polls suppress the conservative voter turnout? Utah’s voter turnout was about 40,000 less than in 2004. That’s about 5% of the 2008 total.
liontooth (0edfdb) — 11/5/2008 @ 10:34 amSo, as predicted, most of the undecideds went for McCain in the end, making for a close popular vote.
Icy Truth (0466e6) — 11/5/2008 @ 10:45 am“Not all the numbers are in yet, but it is looking like the final tally will be somewhere close to 51-48.”
Just out of curiosity, did you make those figures up? What in god’s name were you basing them on? What was the point of guessing?
Terrence (8fd35a) — 11/5/2008 @ 5:31 pmI love all the pundits who say that the reason the Southern states voted for McCain is because racism is still rampant there. I live in the South and I voted against Obama and his leftist illuminati ideals not because of the color of his skin, but because of the shallowness of his platform.
Jeff (7082b1) — 11/6/2008 @ 8:12 am