Patterico's Pontifications

4/19/2023

GOP Candidates and the 2024 Presidential Campaign

Filed under: General — Dana @ 8:52 am



[guest post by Dana]

Gov. Brian Kemp managed to rebuke Donald Trump at the Republican National Committee in Nashville without even mentioning the former president by name:

Kemp urged them to ignore Trump’s obsession with his 2020 reelection defeat, saying, “Not a single swing voter in a single swing state will vote for our nominee if they choose to talk about the 2020 election being stolen.

To voters trying to pay their rent, make their car payment or put their kids through college, 2020 is ancient history.” He went on to say that voters wanted to know the GOP’s vision for the future and “couldn’t care less about anyone’s sour grapes.”

Kemp also touched on Trump’s criminal inquiries in Atlanta, New York and Washington, calling it a “distraction that could cost us dearly next year if we allow it”.

Kemp echoes other Republicans who want to move on from the 2020 election loss drama:

“Voters wanted to hear about what Republicans were doing to help them fight through 40- year high inflation — not months and months of debate over whether the 2020 election was stolen.”

But given current polling, it doesn’t seem like Kemp’s announced strategy tracks with Republican voters. Trump still leads everyone by a mile. But enter Chris Christie, who hopes to change that:

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is talking to potential donors, thought leaders, staffers, and others to discuss a possible campaign for president in 2024, sources close to Christie told CNN.

Christie is in the process of making a decision and has indicated he will make one in the coming weeks.

The New Jersey Republican sees himself as the only serious GOP candidate willing to take on former President Donald. He also sees himself as a candidate who could appeal to enough independents to beat President Joe Biden in the general election, should Biden announce a reelection bid.

Ah, but how does he explain his support for the former president? Let’s see:

He…defended his previous support for the former president, saying the “line was crossed” during the 2020 election when Trump said it was stolen. “There’s a difference between spinning politically to try to put yourself in a better position before the vote happens and after the vote happens to say it was ‘rigged,’” Christie said.

“No one in this country asked him to be their retribution,” Christie added of Trump. “I think a President should be our inspiration, not our retribution.”

Yeah, I just don’t see him moving the needle.

–Dana

178 Responses to “GOP Candidates and the 2024 Presidential Campaign”

  1. I realize that it’s early days still, but do any Republicans on the radar (announced/unannounced) really strike you as someone who can successfully take on Trump to a victory?

    Dana (560c99)

  2. As I have consistently pointed out, “wishcasting” or “hoping” that the next new “flavor of the week” candidate will beat either Trump or DeSantis (T&D) aren’t political strategies that win elections. Outside of these two, none of the other candidates start with a national profile (except among political junkies.) Absent of an implosion by either T or D, these are the choices. The others are too scared to really take them on (at least at this stage.)

    Also, any thought that further indictments of Donald Trump will weaken his position among his core supporters is again wishcasting. Their second choice candidate is “none of the above,” because a candidate would need to endorse the “stolen election” and Trump’s other grievances.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  3. I invite everyone else to prove me wrong.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  4. I am hoping that the AG does not slow walk the J6 charges until mid-2024. Conviction on an insurrection charge would play holy hell with the GOP nomination, lead to numerous states excluding Trump from the ballot, and allow the House to reject a Trump win under the new Electoral Count Act.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  5. “wishcasting”

    What is a vote among 10s of millions if not “wishcasting”? Unless of course you are one of those who votes for someone they despise because they are leading in the polls and you don’t want to “waste your vote.”

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  6. The GOP needs to get past its obsequiousness to the Trumpist wing if it hopes to avoid permanent minority party status. What some call “rationality” others call “pathology.”

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  7. I vote for, and give money to, the people I would prefer to have lead. If the decision on who will run is left to those who control the media, we are no more a democracy than Iran.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  8. I am hoping that the AG does not slow walk the J6 charges until mid-2024. Conviction on an insurrection charge would play holy hell with the GOP nomination……
    ………
    What is a vote among 10s of millions if not “wishcasting”? Unless of course you are one of those who votes for someone they despise because they are leading in the polls and you don’t want to “waste your vote.”

    Kevin M (f94f4f) — 4/19/2023 @ 9:38 am

    I am speaking about commentary every time that a new candidate announces they are running, such as “Tim Scott is a threat to Trump.” He certainly is no threat now; and I don’t think many of the current non-Trump/DeSantis candidates will even be running when the Republican primaries/caucuses begin in January.

    Expecting that a) Trump will be indicted for insurrection and b) will be convicted is an example of “wishcasting”. Highly speculative.

    As I have also said in the past, I don’t expect to see anyone on the California Republican primary ballot except Trump and DeSantis, in which case I won’t be voting for either.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  9. Of all the candidates running or expected to run, only Tim Scott has a chance of breaking into the DeSantis/Trump duopoly. The others are either retreads or too me-too in their messaging.

    I hear that DeSantis is getting an earful from big donors: “If we wanted a MAGA Republican, we’d be donating to Trump.” This will weaken DeSantis as he decouples from MAGA. It may help Trump. It may help others.

    Right now it seems like the campaign is name recognition and shock-jock statements. It takes a certain amount of wildness to get the MSM to talk about a Republican. While it’s never in a good light, Republican voters expect that. So, just spell the name right as you call for liberal DAs to be executed, or whatever.

    We are about 9 months from the first votes. An awful lot can happen in 9 months. While expecting Democrat AGs to do the dirty work on Trump isn’t a strategy, it’s also something that’s more likely than not. Maybe he’s do something truly stupid, like beating the crap out of Melania.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  10. Rip,

    You have a reasonable argument — Trump looks a lot like the 2024 GOP nominee. However, a couple of counter-indications:

    https://news.yahoo.com/poll-trumps-big-post-indictment-bounce-is-fading-fast-183753992.html

    For the first time since February, fewer than half of Republican voters now say they would prefer Trump (49%, down 5 points) to “someone else” as the party’s nominee. Instead, most say they would prefer someone else (39%) or that they’re not sure (12%).

    It’s possible that Trump’s initial post-indictment bump was inflated by fans who were so eager to express their outrage that they were (temporarily) more responsive to pollsters. The new Yahoo News/YouGov survey may represent a return to more normal response patterns.

    Yahoo may be wishcasting in its article, but it’s interesting the Trump bounce seems to be just that. And not permanent.

    Also, while the Federal charges seem far away (what is with that?), things are interesting in Georgia all of a sudden:

    https://www.ajc.com/politics/fulton-prosecutors-offered-immunity-deals-to-some-gop-electors/2H5POZLOHBH2PD4EE4MGWDDGKE/

    The Fulton County District Attorney’s office has offered immunity deals to some of the alternate GOP electors who met at the Georgia Capitol and cast phony Electoral College votes for Donald Trump following the 2020 election.

    In a court motion filed Tuesday, the DA’s office also disclosed that it has been interviewing several of those Republicans in recent weeks, and that some of them accused a fellow elector of committing “acts that are violations of Georgia law,” the motion stated, without revealing specifics.

    The DA’s office filed the motion in an attempt to disqualify from the case attorney Kimberly Bourroughs Debrow, who is representing 10 of the electors. In the explosive motion, prosecutors allege that Debrow failed to inform her clients about the potential immunity deals after they were offered last summer.

    Prosecutors said they had been told by Debrow and her then-co-counsel, Holly Pierson, on Aug. 5, 2022, that none of their clients were interested in immunity. But during interviews with the electors last week, some electors “told members of the investigation team that no potential offer of immunity was ever brought to them in 2022, which is in direct conflict with … Ms. Pierson’s representation to this court,” prosecutors alleged.

    It’s no great surprise to see a lawyer representing coup enablers to be lacking in basic ethics — but this feels so much like Cassidy Hutchison’s Trump-affiliated lawyer dvising her to say as little as possible to the 1-6 committee and protect the (ex) President

    Appalled (ed04c7)

  11. Of all the candidates running or expected to run, only Tim Scott has a chance of breaking into the DeSantis/Trump duopoly.

    The evidence for that is what? For someone who is consistently identified as a “pro-life black conservative” he can’t even get his abortion position straight.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  12. @1

    I realize that it’s early days still, but do any Republicans on the radar (announced/unannounced) really strike you as someone who can successfully take on Trump to a victory?

    Dana (560c99) — 4/19/2023 @ 8:54 am

    I definitely see DeSantis could.

    Still iffy on anyone else.

    whembly (d116f3)

  13. Right now it seems like the campaign is name recognition and shock-jock statements.

    Or in the case of Trump and DeSantis, their records as President or Governor.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  14. This story about Asa Hutchinson makes me think he is tough enough to take on the Donald:

    In 1982, President Ronald Reagan appointed Hutchinson U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas. At age 31, Hutchinson was the nation’s youngest U.S. Attorney. He made national headlines after successfully prosecuting The Covenant, The Sword, and The Arm of the Lord (CSA), a white supremacist organization founded by polygamist James Ellison. The CSA forced a three-day armed standoff with local, state, and federal law enforcement. As U.S. Attorney, Hutchinson put on a flak jacket and personally negotiated a peaceful conclusion to the standoff

    (Links omitted.)

    In addition, he has relevant experience at Homeland Security and the DEA.

    (His bachelor’s degree from Bob Jones suggests he can talk to evangelicals in the Iowa caucus.)

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  15. Trump leads in South Carolina with 40% and DeSantis is at 20%. Tim Scott (7%) and Darling Nikki (18%) are buried in the latest SC poll-do they lack name recognition?

    And Darling Nikki fudged her fundraising numbers.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  16. This story about Asa Hutchinson makes me think he is tough enough to take on the Donald……

    Back when those groups were not part of the Republican coalition.

    He is the one candidate so far I could support, but I doubt I will have the chance to vote for him.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  17. I think Chris Sununu is tough enough, too.

    And I think Nikki Haley is wily enough to take on Donald the Loser.

    All three apparently have solid families, something that I consider important.

    One thing to remember: It is common for front runners the year before to lose an early contest or two, and then lose momentum.

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  18. I think Chris Sununu is tough enough, too.

    And I think Nikki Haley is wily enough to take on Donald the Loser.

    Sununu is pro-choice and doesn’t have a national profile, so he probably doesn’t have a chance.

    Haley better figure out how to report her campaign contributions correctly.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  19. Sununu is pro-choice and doesn’t have a national profile, so he probably doesn’t have a chance.

    I do like his anti-DeSantis nanny state position, so I could hold my nose and vote for him.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  20. The evidence for that is what? For someone who is consistently identified as a “pro-life black conservative” he can’t even get his abortion position straight.

    No, he just doesn’t want to be nailed down to a position since he foresees a compromise and will sign one if he gets it. Of course to some, “compromise” is a dirty word.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  21. I really hate to comment, since my opinions differ from the most prevalent commenters, and their silly responses irritate me. I know I am not alone in this, but still.

    1. I do not believe these supposedly huge numbers are people who want to vote for DJT. I think that they are people who want to vote against Team D these days. I mean, ask a Trump voter why they want to vote for him, and you very, very seldom hear about policies. You hear about “fighting back,” which apparently means acting like Huey Long’s Evil Twin (though Huey was a type of Democrat at the time), mixed with bribery, a lack of mental filter, and cavorting with porn stars.

    2. The MSM loves them some DJT, since it puts eyes on them, and creates a division in Team R. They got fooled in 2016 by running someone even worse against him. But now they have it pegged in—I mean, JB beat him??? So long as they keep JB quiet(er) and let DJT act like a game show host on crack, they will keep winning.

    See how it has infected our body politic? We make snide comments about credible candidates for POTUS, giving them silly and offensive nicknames…just like DJT. And all it does is drive division, which benefits Team D.

    The MSM and Team D love it.

    Good lord, we are stupid.

    We cannot make the MSM treat the candidates equitably. But why shoot ourselves in the foot? Repeatedly?

    Sure, some folks like to caper about, gibbering OWN THE LIBTARDS, while things are on fire.

    We have a deficit of grown ups to try and build and fix things.

    Simon Jester (ff9c91)

  22. It’s no great surprise to see a lawyer representing coup enablers to be lacking in basic ethics

    She’s only pretending to represent them. She’s really representing Mr Big.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  23. Polls at this stage are simply wank. They mean nothing. Using them as an argument is unpersuasive. Trump will not be the Republican nominee.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  24. Sununu is hampered by his lack of name recognition, and what little recognition he has is from his father’s idea the Souter would make a great justice.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  25. Sure, some folks like to caper about, gibbering OWN THE LIBTARDS, while things are on fire.

    Nero at least played a fiddle. Donald Trump plays his supporters like one.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  26. Haley better figure out how to report her campaign contributions correctly.

    Haley has three aligned committees: Her main campaign committee, a leadership PAC and a joint fundraising committee that funnels money to the other two committees.

    The campaign summed the total receipts for each committee to arrive at the $11 million figure. But, in doing so, it double-counted $2.7 million that first landed in the joint fundraising committee and then was parceled out to the campaign committee and the leadership PAC.

    Haley campaign spokesman Ken Farnaso defended the $11 million figure, saying their accounting mirrored how other candidates have previously described their fundraising.

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/16/politics/nikki-haley-fundraising-overstated-republican-president/index.html

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  27. Christie may think he is running for President, but the RNC is probably using him to kneecap Trump, because I don’t think Christie has ever been a viable national candidate. Have to say President Biden was never a viable candidate until Trump made Biden look like the brighter of two dimwits. Christie is much brighter than Biden, but Christie fades with people west of Philadelphia and south of greater DC. If GOP pulls a bunny out of its hat and wins the Presidency in 2024, Christie would want to be AG or DHS or somewhere else where they can best use his pugnaciousness

    steveg (55e4cb)

  28. Haley campaign spokesman Ken Farnaso defended the $11 million figure, saying their accounting mirrored how other candidates have previously described their fundraising.

    Darling Nikki’s math obscures the fact that only $8.3M of the $11M can be used for her presidential campaign.

    ……(T)he arithmetic was highly unusual. For instance, the Trump campaign on Saturday said the former president had raised about $14.5 million into his main campaign committee and another $4.3 million into his leadership PAC. About $14 million of the $14.5 million raised for the campaign came via a joint fundraising committee, according to Trump’s report to the FEC. As is standard practice, the Trump campaign did not add $14 million to $14.5 million to arrive at its announced sum for the first quarter of the year.

    Furthermore, not all of the $8.3 million reported by Haley’s various groups can be used for her campaign. Money in Haley’s leadership PAC, a sort of group often deployed to boost allies or promote a particular message, cannot be used to finance her own campaign.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  29. Once candidates start lining up side-by-side, voters will start to sour on Trump. He’s not inspiring. He’s not smart on policy. He comes across as angry…which might reflect many voter’s mood…but doesn’t inspire confidence. He’s petulant. FNC won’t be as eager to fluff him this time. As much as people like politics to entertain them, I think they want someone who can bring progress, and our middle-finger ex-President ain’t THAT guy. I think we’re seeing tribal loyalty at this point. Many voters feel they’re giving it to the liberal media by supporting Trump. Ultimately Republicans want to win and Trump is unelectable….he’s lost too many independents.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  30. As is standard practice, the Trump campaign did not add $14 million to $14.5 million to arrive at its announced sum for the first quarter of the year.

    The bolded phrase is a typo as shown in this report. It should say “…….the Trump campaign did not add $4 million…..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  31. Once candidates start lining up side-by-side, voters will start to sour on Trump. He’s not inspiring. He’s not smart on policy. He comes across as angry…which might reflect many voter’s mood…but doesn’t inspire confidence. He’s petulant. FNC won’t be as eager to fluff him this time. As much as people like politics to entertain them, I think they want someone who can bring progress, and our middle-finger ex-President ain’t THAT guy. I think we’re seeing tribal loyalty at this point. Many voters feel they’re giving it to the liberal media by supporting Trump. Ultimately Republicans want to win and Trump is unelectable….he’s lost too many independents.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 4/19/2023 @ 11:53 am

    We’ll see-I think Trump is giving the Republican electorate exactly what it wants, and the polling (so far) shows that. They would rather lose than concede that Trump can’t win.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  32. @31

    We’ll see-I think Trump is giving the Republican electorate exactly what it wants, and the polling (so far) shows that. They would rather lose than concede that Trump can’t win.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/19/2023 @ 12:02 pm

    I think there’s a really LOUD minority of GOP voters who’s pissed that Trump lost and wants a mulligan. But, again, I think they’re the minority.

    I’m not convinced pollings on any of the candidates is really useful, except maybe to gauge name recognition.

    My sincere hope, is that the pollings shift closer to the not Trump, such that the long shot not-Trump candidates withdraws in timely manner so that primary voters can flock to the stronger not-Trump candidates.

    Hence why I’m so adamant about getting folks involved during the primaries.

    whembly (d116f3)

  33. I’m not convinced pollings on any of the candidates is really useful, except maybe to gauge name recognition.

    How do you explain the polling South Carolina, where Trump has a lead over Darling Nikki and Tim Scott? It can’t be for lack of name recognition.

    Rip Murdock (c79034)

  34. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/19/2023 @ 11:56 am

    You know it’s bad when you’re compared unfavorably to Donald Trump.

    Rip Murdock (c79034)

  35. Simon Jester – Thanks for your thoughts, with which I mostly agree. Some leftists in the media have been happy to weaken the Republican Party by giving coverage to candidates like Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul, neither of whom was ever going to be president. (And the Les Moonves confession illustrates that point.)

    But I am mildly optimistic, for a number of reasons. For example, I think this time around, more Republican caucus-goers and primary voters may be willing to vote tactically, to vote for their second or third choice in an effort to knock Trump out in the early races. (As I recall, that did happen in Wisconsin in 2016.) If that were to happen in South Carolina, with the current polling, Trump could lose to either DeSantis or Haley.

    That 40% — in what should be one of his strongest states — shows Trump’s weakness, not his strength.

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  36. I invite everyone else to prove me wrong.

    Like Dana said, it’s early days, Rip.
    Like with DeSantis, Kemp also handily won reelection, but in a true battleground state, and an important difference is he’s less polarizing and more traditionally conservative. Kemp also showed some fortitude by not going along with Trump’s election fraud hoax in GA and defended their electoral system, and he still has high approval ratings.
    Christie really has no shot, nor do VP candidates Haley and Scott.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  37. Kemp’s desire to move on jibes with mine

    there are only two factions who refuse: Trump and NeverTrump, who feed off each other

    Trump was dead in the water until NeverTrump decided not to get out of their own way

    JF (69a706)

  38. @33, I agree that the polling in SC doesn’t bode well for Haley or Scott. Though, I think it’s measuring which candidate is in the news and who needs defense from the liberal media establishment. If you hear from Trump and about Trump daily, that will be your first impulse. Give him a re-do, but the case against Trump has not been made yet. I’m fairly confident that to varying degrees each opponent will need to paint in vivid detail why the ex-President does not deserve a re-do. That negative onslaught will shrink his lead. Then, standing next to younger, smarter candidates like DeSantis, Haley, and Scott….and lawyer-trained candidates like Hutchinson, I think many will want a different style. They will remember that as much as they liked how the country did (pre-Covid) with Trump, that he created many of his own problems…and it ain’t changing. FNC is also an unknown. Trump burned them in ways and certainly did not heed appeals on handling J6 and dropping election denialism. They may be looking for a new story….and I bet $787M that they believe he cannot win.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  39. @33

    How do you explain the polling South Carolina, where Trump has a lead over Darling Nikki and Tim Scott? It can’t be for lack of name recognition.

    Rip Murdock (c79034) — 4/19/2023 @ 12:24 pm

    It’s sad that most normie, norms don’t know the names of their Senators or Governor.

    Political junkies like you and me breathe this day in, day out. But, normie norms simply don’t care as they’re too busy living their lives.

    They only care at the Presidential level.

    Why do you think I’ve been yammering at getting more voters involved during the primaries?

    whembly (d116f3)

  40. Dana – In direct answer to your question: Yes. Besides the others I’ve mentioned, I think Chris Christie could do so. He’s a former prosecutor, a formidable campaigner, and agressive enough to take Trump on.

    In addition, this seems likely to me: I think there will be one or more independent PACs, with enough advertising money to run commercials attacking Trump’s record, and his dishonesty. This would make it far easier for other candidates to campaign positively

    Months ago, I said that I thought Trump’s support would erode away, bit by bit, as the court cases continue to give him political problems. That has been happening, and will continue to happen. The E. Jean Carroll case may well have a major impact, for example. The continuing Dominion and Smartmatic cases aren’t going to help him, either.

    Finally, and I am reluctant to mention this, but Trump is old, obese, doesn’t exercise, doesn’t have strong family support, and is under considerable stress. There is a chance that health problems will stop him from running.

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  41. Kevin M (f94f4f) — 4/19/2023 @ 9:43 am

    If the decision on who will run is left to those who control the media, we are no more a democracy than Iran.

    In Iran, denial now is more strategic, At one time they left the actual winner genuinely undetermined,

    Then they cheated. Then, later they eliminated almost all choices. Russia is getting to be more like Iran.

    Anyway the problem is that the primary process is a demolition derby, and also that they only look at who could win on the first ballot.

    In 1976 and 1992 in the Democratic Party, and also in 2016 in the Republican Party, later primary voters tried to STOP the leading candidate. It was all to no avail. But perhaps this time..

    Brian Kemp is speaking to party leaders that they don’t need to have a candidate nominated on the first ballot.

    But, since 1972 Eagleton debacle and the 1976 presidential election, that creates a problem for picking the vice residential candidate, since they now go through the most intensive vetting in American politics. (Not so the presidential candidate – he gets no vetting at all, except by the voters. But no formal vetting: financial, medical or scandal possibility)

    They’d have to leave the picking of the vice president to the National Committee, with the selection to be made four to six weeks after the convention. This would get into the time for printing some ballots.

    If it looks like Biden and Trump, maybe we would get serious third party candidates. But the outlook for that doesn’t look so good either.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  42. Kemp displayed integrity in his resistance of Trump’s pressures and lies about the 2020 election. From what I recall his statements around the violence on Jan 6 have been good. At this point I would welcome the chance to vote for him in the primary and (assuming nothing changes) would easily vote for him over Biden.

    Time123 (8e2273)

  43. If that were to happen in South Carolina, with the current polling, Trump could lose to either DeSantis or Haley.

    That 40% — in what should be one of his strongest states — shows Trump’s weakness, not his strength.

    Jim Miller (0e46f9) — 4/19/2023 @ 12:39 pm

    As could Haley or Scott-and they were elected statewide.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  44. 40.
    Jim Miller (0e46f9) — 4/19/2023 @ 1:08 pm

    there will be one or more independent PACs, with enough advertising money to run commercials attacking Trump’s record, and his dishonesty.

    They are likely to be bad ads.

    They need to convince people who are not already convinced of Trump’s dishonesty, and they must not echo anybody else’s dishonesty. And no assuming things (like Trump’s being guilty of crimes) that mostly Democrats assume. There are many pitfalls.

    One possibility maybe would be ads attacking Trump for saying that EVERYBODY knows the 2020 election was stolen from him – something that Trump cannot possibly ever have believed.

    And Brian Kemp’s avoiding claiming that Trump’s stolen election claims are NOT TRUE is not helping his cause at all. It won’t work. If Trump
    s election truly were stolen, it would indeed behoove him (and the party) to talk about it.

    Although bad things about other candidates can never be the whoel campaign.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  45. Jim Miller (0e46f9) — 4/19/2023 @ 12:39 pm

    Without DeSantis, Trump could be even higher. I don’t believe that DeSantis voters are necessarily neverTrumpers.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  46. Hi JF,

    You say:

    Trump was dead in the water until NeverTrump decided not to get out of their own way

    I guess I wonder who you think nevertrump is? I don’t know a Republcan political figure who is on board with Bragg’s prosecuton in New York. So it’s not the usual cast of “RINOs” that promote this. Instead, it’s Democrats and Trump.

    Appalled (8ed10a)

  47. “Trump was dead in the water until NeverTrump decided not to get out of their own way”

    What poll or evidence ever suggested this? DeSantis has dipped because more people looked at him and were seeing a Trump mini-me who was going to be harder right. GOP NeverTrump wants ABT. This isn’t complicated.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  48. Months ago, I said that I thought Trump’s support would erode away, bit by bit, as the court cases continue to give him political problems.

    It is, but not so much because of the court cases, but because people see, one by one, that he is lying.

    Same thing for DeSantis also.

    . The E. Jean Carroll case may well have a major impact, for example.

    No it won’t. she’s lying and her tale is implausible. (Trump though didn’t want to call any attention to it. He was back in New York for a court date, but it got virtually no attention)

    The continuing Dominion and Smartmatic cases aren’t going to help him, either.

    But not hurt him much. Fox avoided making any kind of on air statement.

    Finally, and I am reluctant to mention this, but Trump is old, obese, doesn’t exercise, doesn’t have strong family support, and is under considerable stress. There is a chance that health problems will stop him from running.

    Yes, but well under 50%. It’s only a year and a bit more away.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  49. It’s sad that most normie, norms don’t know the names of their Senators or Governor.

    In the same poll Tim Scott has an approval of 77% among SC Republicans, and Haley is at 73%, so it isn’t that Republicans don’t like them, its just that they don’t want their home state Senator or former governor to be President.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  50. 37. JF (69a706) — 4/19/2023 @ 12:56 pm

    Kemp’s desire to move on jibes with mine

    That kind of a statement is waffling.

    Trump must be forthrightly claimed to be untruthful or unreasonable about the 2020 election, without echoing Democratic talking points.

    And if you don’t want to talk about the 2020 election, don’t talk about not talking about it, either. When asked, be forthright about that being wrong.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  51. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/19/2023 @ 1:26 pm

    Trump has a 43% favorable rating by Republicans in SC (all percentages include leaners), which should put him behind DeSantis, Haley, and/or Scott, yet he has a 21-point lead over DeSantis, 23 points over Darling Nikki, and 34 points over Scott in the Republican primary.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  52. DeSantis has dipped because more people looked at him and were seeing a Trump mini-me who was going to be harder right.

    What poll or evidence ever suggested this?

    BuDuh (4f4f94)

  53. Once candidates start lining up side-by-side, voters will start to sour on Trump. He’s not inspiring.

    That worked so well in 2016.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  54. 23. Kevin M (f94f4f) — 4/19/2023 @ 11:22 am

    Trump will not be the Republican nominee.

    Because the party will splinter, maybe. But he’d need to be in more trouble with the voters than he is now.

    Trump can be the Republican nominee. Because you can’t beat somebody with nobody. And everybody is nobody.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  55. It won’t easily be DeSantis.

    DeSantis will collapse as he gets more attention and his political character becomes clearer.

    Trump’s attacking him now for being too much against Disney.

    The Babylon Bee published a joke article yesterday that says DeSantis forced Disney World to close by building an elementary school near it (not true even if some of Disney’s employees there were registered sex offenders, which they are not even in the joke article – they are only prohibited from living near a school, not working near one.)

    But here it is:

    https://babylonbee.com/news/disneyworld-forced-to-close-after-desantis-builds-elementary-school-within-1000-feet

    ORLANDO, FL — As the feud continues between Ron DeSantis and the Disney corporation over what the Florida Governor calls Disney’s “grooming” behavior towards young children, Disney was forced to halt all operations after DeSantis’s administration built an elementary school within 1,000 feet of the theme park.

    “Disney has proudly employed sex predators for years, and this act of aggression by DeSantis will force thousands of our proud pedo-American workers to leave the park to stay outside the 1,000-foot radius required by law,” said Disney CEO Bob Iger. “This is tyranny!”

    …”We can’t stop Disney from running constant programming that steals innocence from young children, but we can shut them down with this elementary school!” Governor DeSantis declared outside the newly completed “Based Elementary School” in front of a mural of the new school’s mascot: a musclebound alligator treading on a Pride flag. “Disney’s crusade to corrupt the youth has finally come to an end here in the free state of Florida.”…

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  56. DeSantis is losing support in Florida:

    ………(T)wo more Republican members of Congress from (Florida) are gearing to endorse Donald Trump for another term. Reps. Gus Bilirakis and Carlos Gimenez are each planning to announce their support for the former president this week, multiple sources familiar with the matter tell TIME.

    The development is even more noteworthy after his political team recently tried to stop the bleeding by asking Florida Republicans to refrain from endorsing Trump. …….

    Bilirakis and Gimenez have also committed to be at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach on Thursday night, as the former President hosts members of the Florida delegation who have already endorsed him, including Reps. Matt Gaetz, Anna Paulina Luna, Cory Mills, and Greg Steube. It’s not clear yet whether Reps. Byron Donalds and John Rutherford, who have also endorsed Trump, will be at the gathering.

    ……..Rep. Brian Mast, another Florida Republican, has also told associates he plans to formally back Trump in the coming days. And on Wednesday, Rep. Vern Buchanan officially threw his weight behind Trump. …….

    All of their endorsements will bring Trump’s tally of members of Congress from Florida to ten, whereas DeSantis has just one, Rep. Laurel Lee…….
    ………
    DeSantis suffered another humiliation on Tuesday, when he met with a group of Congressional lawmakers in Washington, D.C., hosted by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank. Within minutes after the event ended, one of the attendees, Rep. Lance Gooden of Texas, endorsed Trump. “I met with Governor DeSantis,” Gooden said in a statement. “And while he has done commendable work in Florida, there is no doubt in my mind that President Trump is the only leader who can save America from the leftist onslaught we are currently facing.”
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  57. a Trump mini-me who was going to be harder right.

    Not suggested or confirmed by a poll, but he’s going in that direction.

    I’m not sure what’s needed to make the article available to anybody I’m not even sure what to include in the link.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/10/us/florida-desantis-immigration.html?unlocked_article_code=udZf9yTzAT2rKyd80eeqXarnXwgBneDRgmLW0qm-wiEAVuBQS3N_PLbp6-0vQfVl7s7ghzPA74bje3neKqTqh5SjBaFyhr4rAesc6u-A_9pXtV4Td4AlmJlsg49fSSn19JdmJtYnknQWn-eaZiLJ7jOtZk2cdKmYjs8LJFWKQU_0cq4H_2jZc9USdZTLP5WcXRCIapfXD8SE7DtjzZxMuzp9Y2aUrZgJxHyWM9ai0ti8BIjXBkYktJPJpmHKJukLlZGKJuEejE4gYuKnprud1zFIgu6Mf5Ld6oOoKef10plgNRDcZW9Rvqhwytd6WK0TlvJBDEZ5EjSdArAm9A3k0g&giftCopy=4_Disclaimer&smid=url-share

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/10/us/florida-desantis-immigration.html

    DeSantis Pushes Toughest Immigration Crackdown in the Nation

    The Florida governor is pushing an aggressive proposal to penalize those who aid undocumented immigrants and to track costs for providing them with health care.

    ….Expected to pass within weeks because Republicans have supermajorities in both chambers, the bills are part of what Mr. DeSantis describes as a response to President Biden’s “open borders agenda,” which he said has allowed an uncontrolled flow of immigrants to cross into the United States from Mexico.

    The bills would expose people to felony charges for sheltering, hiring and transporting undocumented immigrants; require hospitals to ask patients their immigration status and report to the state; invalidate out-of-state driver’s licenses issued to undocumented immigrants; prevent undocumented immigrants from being admitted to the bar in Florida; and direct the Florida Department of Law Enforcement to provide assistance to federal authorities in enforcing the nation’s immigration laws.

    The admission to the bar business only affects the dreamers and such – to be admitted to the bar I think a person needs to be legally permitted to work, and the dreamers are while still being illegal..

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  58. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/19/2023 @ 1:49 pm

    The ten Republican House members who have endorsed Trump represent half of the Republican members.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  59. “That worked so well in 2016.”

    The sheen is off.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  60. DeSantis wants to ensure that people die because they don’t get medical care. And maybe that children don’t get immunized. Or that people who need dialysis don’t get it regularly but only when they get into a crisis.

    This is being Right-to-Life?

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  61. I guess I wonder who you think nevertrump is?

    Start with this issue of the banished ideologues:

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2016/01/donald-trump-conservatives-oppose-nomination/

    … and then thumb through the ideologues ‘dispatched’ – to their ‘Alamo’ retreat, holed up behind a paywall wailing their woes in an echoing stove pipe. Examples:

    Longtime conservative columnist tells why he’s a ‘Never Trumper’

    https://www.richardcyoung.com/politics/the-nevertrump-backlash-jonah-goldberg-run-out-of-national-review/

    Prominent Never-Trumper Says GOP Voters Should ‘Be Democrats For A While,’ Backs Gretchen Whitmer For President

    “We need to defeat the Trump Republicans. And if that means being with the Democrats for a while, that’s fine…” Bill Kristol.

    https://dailycaller.com/2023/03/07/never-trumper-bill-kristol-gop-voters-should-be-democrats-for-a-while-backs-gretchen-whitmer-for-president/

    If there was no support from the party voters and populists in general for Trump he’d not be polling 20-30 points ahead of an unannounced goober obsessed w/a puncvhing down in a’mousehunt.’ The quickest way to move on from him is having him secure the nom then watching him lose again. And should he win, he’s term limited for 4 years so the #2 spot is al lthat more important– as declared candidate Haley well knows.

    “He’s Hitler with a tail! This is The Omen with whiskers! Nostradamus didn’t see this thing coming!” – Ernie Smuntz [Nathan Lane] ‘Mousehunt’ 1997

    DCSCA (faedc1)

  62. One of the most infuriating things about Trump the Loser is the way his neuroses have distracted us from thinking about the problems we should be thinking about. Max Boot has an example:

    But [Rep. Mike] Gallagher is right that the United States and China are locked in an existential struggle, because this new cold war, like the original Cold War with the Soviet Union, has the potential to turn into a nuclear conflict. This is a danger that China hawks — and the U.S. public in general — do not pay sufficient attention to. President Biden, for example, repeatedly says that the United States will defend Taiwan if it’s attacked, without any mention of the potential consequences of a conflict with China.

    Before Trump, a series of presidents tried to reduce the chance of nuclear war, by a series of arms control treaties. Even Obama, as incompetent as he is, was able to get one negotiated (though most likely the diplomatic pros did almost all the work).

    Trump didn’t even try with Russia and China, and his ineptitude in bargaining with North Korea should embarrass every American.

    So far, Biden hasn’t done anything significant, either.

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  63. The DeSantis Visit to Capitol Hill Got Trumped:

    It was supposed to be RON DeSANTIS’ big day on Capitol Hill. Yet DONALD TRUMP managed to overshadow him from almost 1,000 miles away.
    ………
    ………(I)in a stone-cold act of political brutality, Rep. LANCE GOODEN (R-Texas) walked out of the DeSantis meeting and declared his support for Trump.

    “It’s a killer!” said one positively giddy Trump confidant, who was on the phone with Playbook when news of Gooden’s surprise endorsement broke.
    ……..
    Not only did lawmakers leave the DeSantis event without delivering their backing, ……., but several “tried to downplay their attendance, saying they went because the governor was a former colleague and they wanted to say hello.”

    We made some calls to Trump world last night to figure out just how much of this was coordinated. Gooden’s dramatic gesture, we’re told, came as a surprise to the former president’s brain trust. But much of the rest was quickly and carefully orchestrated over the past few days.

    It began over the weekend, when Trump traveled to Nashville for the RNC donor retreat…….
    ………
    So on Sunday night, Trump officials sent emails to Sunshine State members asking if they would be willing to play ball. “Heck yes, I’d love to endorse him,” one lawmaker replied. (Beyond Mast, Rutherford and Steube, other members are expected to back Trump in the coming days, we’re told.)

    “The amazing part of it is how easy it was,” one person close to Trump said, noting his team was shocked, for example, that Florida Rep. BYRON DONALDS — who had introduced DeSantis and his family at the governor’s Election Night victory party — was all-in when they called him up recently.

    It’s a troubling sign for DeSantis if he can’t convince more Republican lawmakers, who know better than most how Trump can be a general-election liability. It certainly doesn’t bode well for his appeal to the common GOP voter, who probably isn’t as concerned about electability, the core of DeSantis’ pitch.

    But the snub from GOP lawmakers in his home state is particularly striking, and it’s playing into the narrative that DeSantis is too aloof and inattentive to the interpersonal niceties of big-league politics.

    Just ask Steube, who told Playbook in a brief interview last night that DeSantis has never once reached out to him during his five years in Congress nor replied to his multiple attempts to connect. He recalled a recent news conference dealing with damage from Hurricane Ian where the governor’s aides initially invited him to stand alongside DeSantis, only to tell him that he wouldn’t be part of the event when he showed up.
    ………..
    “Floridians want him focused on Florida,” he said, “which is the job they elected him to do.”
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  64. So far, Biden hasn’t done anything significant, either.

    Jim Miller (0e46f9) — 4/19/2023 @ 1:58 pm

    I disagree. We are helping bleed the Russian army, (and economy) dry through arming Ukraine and massive sanctions; and his export controls on semiconductor chips to China are far more than what Trump ever did.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  65. Rip – Biden hasn’t done anything signficant on nuclear disarmanent. And China, as Boot explains in the column, is rapidly increasing its stockpile:

    And yet China is in the midst of a rapid nuclear buildup. The latest Pentagon report on Chinese military power projects that its nuclear stockpile will grow from 400 warheads today to 1,500 warheads by 2035.

    I am in favor of arming Ukraine, but I think Biden should have accompanied that by initiatives onreducing nuclear weapons stockpiles in all three nations.

    In fact, he should have made that part of his campaign, and one of his first diplomatic initiatives.

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  66. Trump’s base is the personification of baseness. Resentful losers, haters and bigots.

    We do not want anybody whom they would prefer to Trump. That would be a very bad thing. We want somebody who will kick them back to nonentitiness.

    nk (169aa1)

  67. So far, Biden hasn’t done anything significant, either.

    Inflation. Illegal Immigration. Invasion. Incompetence. Incontinence. Ireland.

    The “I’s” have it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6nWB5oww14

    “It is ballooooon!!” – ‘Commander-in-Chief’ Wild Eagle[Frank DeKova] ‘F-Troop’ ABC TV, 1965-67

    DCSCA (faedc1)

  68. Appalled (ed04c7) — 4/19/2023 @ 10:16 am

    And then there is this:

    Trump’s post-indictment GOP rallying effect is real
    ………..
    A CBS News-YouGov poll (conducted between April 11-14 and) released Monday got at this perhaps better than any post-indictment poll.

    It showed the percentage of Republicans who said it was “very important” to be loyal to Trump rising from 35 percent in both September and January to 46 percent today. And those labeling it “somewhat important” or “very important” have increased from two-thirds to around three-fourths.

    What CBS’s write-up didn’t note: That 46 percent who said it was “very important” is familiar. It’s precisely where things stood the last time Trump was officially targeted for his conduct, during his 2021 impeachment.
    ………
    After the 2022 election, Quinnipiac University showed Republicans saying that Trump’s impact on the party was mostly positive rather than mostly negative by a 46-point margin. Its most recent poll, conducted shortly before Trump’s actual indictment in late March, showed that rising to a 53-point margin.

    The same poll showed Trump’s favorability split among Republicans (favorable views minus unfavorable views) rising even more: from 51 points positive in December (71-20) to 64 points positive (79-15) in late March.

    The last time 8 in 10 Republicans had a favorable view of Trump in Quinnipiac’s regular polling was 2021.

    Those numbers echo NPR-PBS-Marist College polling, which was conducted a bit earlier in March. While 70 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of Trump in its February polling, that increased to 81 percent in late March.
    ……….

    From the CBS/YouGov Poll:

    Americans by and large don’t want Republicans in Congress interfering with law enforcement’s investigations into former President Donald Trump. But that’s different for a majority of rank-and-file Republicans, in particular MAGA Republicans, who do want their representatives to try to stop them. (Emphasis in original)
    ………
    About three in four say it’s at least somewhat important to them that Republicans be loyal to Trump. That’s an 11-point jump since January.

    While MAGA Republicans are much likelier to view loyalty as “very important,” even non-MAGA Republicans have shifted — among the latter group, the percentage calling it at least somewhat important has grown by 10 points (from 55% in January to 65% now).
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  69. The instinct is for people to say in a poll they would support Trump if they think he’s being prosecuted unfairly but that doesn’t mean they are really more likely to vote for him in a contested primary.

    As John Bolton says that’s no reason he should be president.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  70. The Dem strategy on the budget is to attribute any bad news to the Republicans.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  71. I think Ukraine is trying to bleed the Wagner Group, not the Russian army.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  72. We are helping bleed the Russian army, (and economy) dry through arming Ukraine and massive sanctions

    “We?”

    Sanctions On Russia Still Aren’t Working

    We’re just over a year into the Russia-Ukraine war, and yet the much-touted economic sanctions from the west seem to have had little effect on persuading the the Kremlin to back off. If anything the reverse is true.

    That’s a shame because so far up to 300,000 people have died in the conflict, according to some estimates. And the sanctions have done nothing to help.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2023/02/25/sanctions-on-russia-still-arent-working/?sh=41a689331717

    Japan buys Russian oil above $60-a-barrel cap, breaking with US allies: report

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-buys-russian-oil-above-205648641.html

    India Now Buying 33 Times More Russian Oil Than a Year Earlier

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-16/india-now-buying-33-times-more-russian-oil-than-a-year-earlier#xj4y7vzkg

    DCSCA (faedc1)

  73. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/19/2023 @ 2:02 pm

    That’s interesting, Rip.

    I’ve heard that there’s a Florida law that says DeSantis must resign as Governor if he declares his candidacy for President.

    I have also heard that there is a movement in the Florida legislature to change that law.

    I wonder how the Trumpa-doodle-do!s in the legislature will vote.

    nk (169aa1)

  74. @51

    Trump has a 43% favorable rating by Republicans in SC (all percentages include leaners), which should put him behind DeSantis, Haley, and/or Scott, yet he has a 21-point lead over DeSantis, 23 points over Darling Nikki, and 34 points over Scott in the Republican primary.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/19/2023 @ 1:36 pm

    Rip, I think you’re putting too much emphasis on polling right now.

    That dichotomy you’re highlighting is an example of polls trying to pin down what poll responders SAYS vs. how responders actual voted.

    The mere fact that Haley and Scott has a higher favorability percentage than Trump, should make you pause on the fact that Trump is so much higher in primary polls.

    whembly (36ab5f)

  75. @60

    DeSantis wants to ensure that people die because they don’t get medical care. And maybe that children don’t get immunized. Or that people who need dialysis don’t get it regularly but only when they get into a crisis.

    This is being Right-to-Life?

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 4/19/2023 @ 1:56 pm

    Sammy… wtf?

    whembly (36ab5f)

  76. Rip – Biden hasn’t done anything signficant on nuclear disarmanent.

    So what? It’s a fool’s errand. The Trump Administration withdrew the US from the INF treaty due to Russian cheating:

    For several years, the United States has alleged that Russia was in violation of the INF Treaty by testing and deploying a banned missile system, and Washington pinned its treaty withdrawal squarely on Russia. “Russia is solely responsible for the treaty’s demise,” said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in announcing the U.S. move. “Over the past six months, the United States provided Russia a final opportunity to correct its noncompliance. As it has for many years, Russia chose to keep its noncompliant missile rather than going back into compliance with its treaty obligations.”
    ………
    For its part, NATO supported the U.S. decision, saying in a statement that “a situation whereby the United States fully abides by the treaty, and Russia does not, is not sustainable.” German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, however, lamented the end of the treaty, saying that “a piece of Europe’s security has been lost.”

    The INF Treaty also constrained the US from developing its own missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km (310-3,400 miles), something we will need to do to confront China. The US needs flexibility to modernize its nuclear triad, and the INF Treaty prevented that.

    The Trump Administration also withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty in 2020, again citing Russian non-compliance.

    The only nuclear treaty that remains is New START, which constrains the US and Russia but not China. I find hard to believe that China would willingly agree to limit their nuclear missile program until they reach parity with the US and Russia. And Russia, not the US, has suspended its participation under New START because of our support of Ukraine.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  77. Rip, I think you’re putting too much emphasis on polling right now.

    It’s the only metric we have to gauge where the race for President is going. I’m sure the candidates are continuously polling.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  78. The mere fact that Haley and Scott has a higher favorability percentage than Trump, should make you pause on the fact that Trump is so much higher in primary polls.

    whembly (36ab5f) — 4/19/2023 @ 2:54 pm

    As I said, SC Republicans like Haley and Scott, but they don’t want either of them to be President.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  79. Robert kennedy running in democrat primary will get biden protest votes. RFK jr will get cross over votes when trump gets the delegates for nomination.

    asset (094a70)

  80. OT:

    @JeremyRedfernFL
    .
    @GovRonDeSantis
    and the legislature ended Disney’s special treatment in Florida. The attempted 11th-hour agreement by the former board is null and void.


    @Disney
    responded by engaging in an illegal and indeed unconstitutional effort to extend the life of its sweetheart deal.”

    whembly (d116f3)

  81. IRS whistleblower says hunter biden is being protected not prosecuted has proof. (ACE)

    asset (094a70)

  82. I’ve heard that there’s a Florida law that says DeSantis must resign as Governor if he declares his candidacy for President.

    I have also heard that there is a movement in the Florida legislature to change that law.

    I wonder how the Trumpa-doodle-do!s in the legislature will vote.

    nk (169aa1) — 4/19/2023 @ 2:46 pm

    I’ve read a couple of things, one is that the FL legislature would have no problem repealing it for DeSantis (which they also did for Charlie Crist in 2007 when he was a Republican) and an interpretation that won’t require for the law to be repealed.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  83. Trump can be the Republican nominee. Because you can’t beat somebody with nobody. And everybody is nobody.
    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 4/19/2023 @ 1:43 pm

    Sammy! How zen.

    “Everybody needs somebody sometime.” -Deano

    felipe (77b190)

  84. “@GovRonDeSantis
    and the legislature ended Disney’s special treatment in Florida. The attempted 11th-hour agreement by the former board is null and void.


    @Disney
    responded by engaging in an illegal and indeed unconstitutional effort to extend the life of its sweetheart deal.””

    Does DeSantis not know what “11th hour” means?

    Davethulhu (fe2f72)

  85. I wonder how the Trumpa-doodle-do!s in the legislature will vote.

    nk (169aa1) — 4/19/2023 @ 2:46 pm

    Don’t know, but I’m sure they’ll “cQck” it up.

    felipe (77b190)

  86. @84

    Does DeSantis not know what “11th hour” means?

    Davethulhu (fe2f72) — 4/19/2023 @ 3:27 pm

    Doesn’t seem like you do.

    whembly (d116f3)

  87. Speaking of “cQcking it up.”..

    If Trump wins, by hook or by crook, the R nomination, I’d suggest this as his new musical into to play before he hits any stage to speak.

    felipe (77b190)

  88. Intro! Dang it.

    felipe (77b190)

  89. How Disney Came to Define What Constitutes the American Experience

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-disney-came-define-what-constitutes-american-experience-180961632/

    DeSantis is a fool.

    DCSCA (faedc1)

  90. https://www.statista.com/statistics/273555/global-revenue-of-the-walt-disney-company/

    With an average annual attendance of over 58 million visitors, Walt Disney World is the most visited vacation resort in the world.

    DeSantis is a fool.

    DCSCA (faedc1)

  91. “Doesn’t seem like you do.”

    The 11th hour means the last possible time before it’s too late. Meaning the agreement was made before the legislature’s actions took effect. Which means ol’ meatball Ron is wrong. And so are you.

    Davethulhu (fe2f72)

  92. I wonder how the Trumpa-doodle-do!s in the legislature will vote.

    nk (169aa1) — 4/19/2023 @ 2:46 pm

    Why is that even a question-of course the legislature will repeal the law so DeSantis can run. He has them in his hip pocket.

    Florida is one of a handful of states with a “resign to run” law on the books. At least, for now. Republicans dominate both chambers of the state legislature and could easily repeal the election law, and seem likely to.

    A state House bill has already been filed to that effect. It’s one of several measures likely to be considered in the two-month-plus legislative session, many of which could help DeSantis burnish his conservative credentials ahead of the 2024 race.
    ………..
    If Florida lawmakers do strike the resign-to-run law from the books, one prominent state resident could become a critic of the insider political maneuvering.
    ………..
    ………..(T)here’s plenty of precedent for changing election laws to benefit sitting officeholders. Texas amended its resignation law so Sen. Lyndon Johnson could be reelected in 1960 while also, successfully, running as the Democratic vice presidential nominee……..

    Regarding Disney World, it’s not like they can pick up lock, stock, and barrel and move to another state.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  93. DeSantis may not need the legislature to repeal the “resign to run” law in order to run for President:

    ……….
    Nicholas Warren, an American Civil Liberties Union of Florida staff attorney who specializes in voting rights, says the law “limits people who ‘qualify’ for office – and you don’t ‘qualify’ to run for president in Florida.” (To oversimplify here, qualifying means that one is able to be placed on a ballot.)
    ……….
    (Jon Mills, a constitutional law expert who was dean of the University of Florida’s law school in 1999-2003 and was speaker of the Florida House in the late 1980s) argues DeSantis has to resign under the state’s law, though he notes, “The question is when? What does qualification mean in terms of running for president? Does it mean you are the final nominee or is it when you qualify for the first primary state?”

    Warren disagrees. He explained that to get on the presidential primary ballot in Florida, candidates don’t “qualify” but rather political parties submit lists of people to be on the ballot. Those candidates don’t, for instance, pay a fee or gather signatures as others do.
    ……….
    “To belabor the point, ‘qualify’ means something specific in the (Florida) Election Code,” Warren added. “There’s a whole dang statute on what candidate qualifying is and how it happens, and it does NOT mention or apply” to the offices of U.S. president and vice president.
    ……….
    ……….Tallahassee Democrat columnist Bill Cotterell made the point that “Florida has never produced a president, and nobody really thought we might grow one when they passed the resign-to-run law.”

    What it was about was nipping political competition in the bud, he wrote recently: “In the pre-term limits days, legislators were looking out for their own longevity – like, there are some mayors or county commissioners or school superintendents back home who might run against me, so let’s make them give up their own jobs first.”

    “The idea,” he went on, “was that officeholders shouldn’t be able to use one job to boost themselves to a higher office – or to squeeze campaign cash from lobbyists who’d still have to deal with a powerful senator or representative if he or she lost a big race.”

    As to tweaking the law, the Legislature’s new Republican leadership sounded more than happy to oblige last month (November 2022), when they were asked about it in press conferences after the Legislature’s organization session.

    Take House Speaker Paul Renner. Asked about a generic state official, he said, tongue firmly in cheek, “I think that’s a great idea.” He quickly added, “I think we’ll look at that. We’ll look at election law generally.”

    When given the specific example of, say, a governor, Renner added, “This is one area that, going back in history, we’ve been totally inconsistent on. If you think that’s based on anything in your hypothetical, you’d be right.”
    …………

    .

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  94. Why is that even a question-

    Because in your comment that I pointed out in my comment, you had Florida politicians saying they supported Trump and DeSantis should sit on his gubernatorial eggs (a Greek expression that Gus Bilirakis might know, his father likely does, and his grandfather definitely did).

    nk (169aa1)

  95. Robert kennedy running in democrat primary will get biden protest votes.

    At least those from anti-vaxxers. Sane people, not so much.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  96. you had Florida politicians saying they supported Trump and DeSantis should sit on his gubernatorial eggs

    Those supporting Trump are Members of Congress, not the Florida Legislature.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  97. It won’t be just MacWienerschnitzel running in the 2024 primary. They will be too.

    nk (06106a)

  98. It won’t be just MacWienerschnitzel running in the 2024 primary. They will be too.

    nk (06106a) — 4/19/2023 @ 5:09 pm

    But they have no say over the “resign to run” law. It’s apples and oranges.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  99. The ones who do have say over the “resign to run” law are in the “they” who will be running in the 2024 primary too.

    nk (06106a)

  100. If Trump wins, by hook or by crook, the R nomination, I’d suggest this as his new musical into to play before he hits any stage to speak.

    Copyrighted, and therefore subject to the artist’s objection.

    This old ditty might work better anyway, and the creator is long dead. Played by “The President’s Own”

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  101. The ones who do have say over the “resign to run” law are in the “they” who will be running in the 2024 primary too.

    nk (06106a) — 4/19/2023 @ 5:19 pm

    Which apparently “they” are more than happy to do.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  102. This is a danger that China hawks — and the U.S. public in general — do not pay sufficient attention to. President Biden, for example, repeatedly says that the United States will defend Taiwan if it’s attacked, without any mention of the potential consequences of a conflict with China.

    This is just part of the problem. By embargoing technology to China, he is repeating the situation of the late 1930s, where FDR stopped oil from going to Japan. Eventually Japan had to TAKE the oil fields in the East Indies and to so had to break the American naval power in the Pacific. So, Pearl Harbor and war.

    With what we are doing, China will eventually face the same problem: suffer a terrible economic defeat like the Soviets, or obtain the technology by force. And, oh look, Taiwan.

    The US realizes this, too, and is doing everything in our power to rebuild cutting edge chip factories in the USA. What’s good for Intel is good for America (there are no other fab operators of note in the US). Assuming we can pull this off, when push comes to shove in Taiwan it won’t be an existential American problem. What happens then will depend on the person in the WH.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  103. They’re Coming To Take Me Away by Napoleon XIV.

    Good to see you around and about, felipe.

    nk (06106a)

  104. Re: Gov. Kemp:

    TrumpWorld is not ready to get over Trump:

    ……..What he’s saying is that if Trump is the nominee, he won’t put his shoulder to the wheel to help the Republican nominee win. He will willfully help the Democrat defeat Trump, just like last time………I have no doubt that Kemp is “VERY DIRTY” and it won’t take much opp research to expose the FRAUD!…….Only Chinese interests matter to someone like him. ……..I’ve made no secret of being a DeSantis fan, but even he won’t win as many votes as Trump did in 2020. No R candidate can win without Trump supporters. ……..Kemp isn’t delusional. He’s Deep State. ……..When people say “Let’s move on,” they want us to move on before their part in the coup is discovered. ……..Get ready to get steamrolled in 2024….Conservatives voters are split into multiple camps – Dementia Joe has 2024 in the bag. ……..Kemp doesn’t stand for anything except lining his own pockets and kissing the ring of the Golden Calf Deep State. But with Kemp and Raffensperger ruling Georgia like Mafia bosses, Donald Trump will not be allowed to win the state. The 2020 election fiasco will be repeated again and again. ……..Desantis supportors are thugs……..

    ………’20 was a one-off or Peak Fraud™ if you will. I think Trump will win in a normal fraud election year. ……..Trump has toned down his rhetoric a lot since 2016. ……..Your political freedoms are almost gone. If we let them take out Trump we are doomed. Get it?……Kemp won’t have to help Democrats beat Trump. He does a fine job beating himself with his lack of discipline, propensity toward bombast and demagoguery, and his inability to hire competent people………Abortion will be front and center this election. Kansas and the Red trickle proved it is a potentially winning message for the Left to bring in women and moderates that the Right needs to even have a chance……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  105. What’s good for Intel is good for America (there are no other fab operators of note in the US).

    There are five major chipmakers building facilities in the US: GlobalFoundries, Intel, Samsung Foundry, TSMC, and Texas Instruments.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  106. DeSantis meets with GOP congressional lawmakers as he mulls White House bid

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who’s considering a run for the presidency, made overtures to congressional Republicans during a visit to Washington, D.C., Tuesday, as notable GOP members from his home state decided to back former President Donald Trump.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ron-desantis-meets-gop-congress-members/

    DCSCA (7c7e6c)

  107. Ouch!

    ………
    (Rep. Marjorie Taylor) Greene, a Georgia Republican, began her time during Wednesday’s hearing (Homeland Security Committee) by going after Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell of California, who had shown an Instagram photo of her calling to defund the FBI. Greene brought up an incident from several years ago, when Swalwell was targeted by a suspected Chinese intelligence operative as part of a broader effort to establish ties with US politicians. Swalwell cooperated with investigators and was never accused of any wrongdoing.

    But Greene, without evidence, accused Swalwell of having an intimate relationship with the Chinese operative.

    Immediately, Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman of New York moved to have those words removed from the record, calling them “completely inappropriate.” But the Republicans on the panel overruled and Greene refused to retract her comments.

    When Greene began speaking again, she accused (Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro) Mayorkas of letting fentanyl deaths occur and called him a “liar.”

    When Mayorkas began to say, “Congresswoman, let me assure you that we’re not letting it go on,” Greene shot back with, “No, I reclaim my time. You’re a liar. You are letting this go on. And the numbers prove it.”

    The top Democrat on the panel, Bennie Thompson of Mississippi, interjected, seeking to get Greene’s words taken down from the record for a second time. Even when given an opportunity to withdraw her remarks, Greene refused.

    The panel’s Republican chairman (Rep. Mark Green) then ruled that Greene could not speak the rest of the hearing.

    “It’s pretty clear that the rules state you can’t impugn someone’s character. Identifying or calling someone a liar is unacceptable in this committee and I make the ruling that we strike those words,” said Green, a Tennessee Republican.

    “When we strike it does terminate the time of the individual who is speaking, so the gentlelady is no longer recognized,” he added when Goldman asked for clarification.

    Greene left shortly after she was silenced.
    ……….
    “Republicans will never defeat the Democrats, we’ll never impeach Mayorkas, we’ll never impeach Biden, and we’ll never implement our conservative agenda if we can’t even call a liar a liar,” Greene tweeted. “Republicans should not let Democrats strike down our words and do their bidding for them.”
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  108. DeSantis is in a rut. His trek to D.C. didn’t help.

    At a big moment for him, the Florida governor was overshadowed by rival Donald Trump’s string of endorsements. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis values being in control. Presidential candidate-in-waiting DeSantis is losing it.

    As he trekked to the nation’s capital to demonstrate strength with the Washington establishment on Tuesday — and before he even set foot in the district — several members of his state’s congressional delegation announced support instead for former President Donald Trump’s White House comeback bid…

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/19/desantis-dc-trump-endorsement-00092695

    DCSCA (7c7e6c)

  109. What companies does Disney own?

    ABC
    ESPN (80% stake)
    Touchstone Pictures
    Marvel
    Lucasfilm
    A&E (50% equity holding with Hearst Corporation)
    The History Channel (50% equity holding with Hearst Corporation)
    Lifetime (50% equity holding with Hearst Corporation)
    Pixar
    Hollywood Records
    Vice Media (10% stake)
    Core Publishing

    What does Disney own as far as recognizable brands and film franchises?

    Star Wars
    The Muppets
    The Marvel Cinematic Universe (but not the X-Men — yet!)
    Disney Princesses/Princes (such as characters from Cinderella, Mulan, Frozen, Aladdin, and The Lion King)
    The Chronicles of Narnia Franchise
    The Pirates of the Caribbean Franchise
    Pixar Films (such as Toy Story, The Incredibles, and Cars)
    The Winnie the Pooh Franchise
    The Indiana Jones Franchise
    Grey’s Anatomy (and other popular ABC shows)

    https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-center/money-finance/companies-disney-owns-worldwide/

    DeSantis is a fool.

    DCSCA (7c7e6c)

  110. DCSCA (7c7e6c) — 4/19/2023 @ 6:09 pm

    I want no part of any movie that is within a “franchise”.

    norcal (15fce4)

  111. DeSantis is a fool.

    DCSCA (7c7e6c) — 4/19/2023 @ 6:09 pm

    No, the people are fools. That’s why Trump has a stranglehold on the Republican Party.

    He should have been laughed right back up the escalator when he implied that most illegal immigrants are criminals and rapists.

    norcal (15fce4)

  112. norcal (15fce4) — 4/19/2023 @ 7:03 pm

    does nevertrump have a winning vision other than “the electorate sucks”?

    It’s not a trick question

    JF (1a7914)

  113. Our politic cycles are now baked into the global adventurists rhythm

    “Oleksiy Arestovych says it is essential for Ukraine to prepare for the second war with Russia in 4-6 years’ time. He believes Russia will attempt to learn from mistakes and have another go, similarly to the Second Chechen War.”

    steveg (55e4cb)

  114. does nevertrump have a winning vision other than “the electorate sucks”?

    It’s not a trick question

    JF (1a7914) — 4/19/2023 @ 8:04 pm

    Looking at Rip’s poll results, it indeed seems that a large chunk of Republican voters suck. Whether they will fall for Trump’s act again in the primaries, or wise up and vote for a better candidate (i.e., anybody else) remains to be seen.

    norcal (15fce4)

  115. @95 Many like me will vote for other then biden in primary as a protest vote against the clinton/biden grifters in the party. If that is RFK so be it even though I support the war in ukriane. Hopefully other candidates who support ukraine will also be running. I see the vermin in the media are gaslighting and shadow banning RFK like they did bernie sanders in 2016.

    asset (85dc1d)

  116. does nevertrump have a winning vision other than “the electorate sucks”?

    #NeverTrump isn’t a political party. It isn’t an organization. It’s a group of people that owes its collective existence to opposing Donald Trump. Beyond that, #NeverTrump makes no pretense to uniform visions of anything. I happily make common cause with other #NeverTrumpers for this purpose despite my confidence that many will vote for candidates I oppose for being on the wrong side of my own red line, which I would describe as #NeverTrumpy.

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  117. @116 Both conservatives and democrats hate trump. The only thing I hated about trump was incarcerating and separating children from their parents and baby prisons. Trump was a former democrat and his protection of social security and medicare destroyed the 16 conservative dwarfs. He won as a dixiecrat populist. His anti-free trade globalism won him union votes in the midwest. Populists in both parties hate clinton’s corporatist elitism and war mongering. (this was before ukraine) Economic libertarian conservatives may have the money as AOC said ;but populists have the votes. Populists breed a lot facter then rich conservatives.

    asset (85dc1d)

  118. Not liking Donald Trump is enough. But some people want everything.

    nk (06106a)

  119. Personally, I stay away from people with visions. They could be on a bad trip.

    nk (06106a)

  120. @110. Millions and millions and millions of Americans- who vote… do.

    @111. Peeing on StarWars and Muppet fans and labelling same fools is not a persuasive POV… except, perhaps, behind a paywall in the echo chamber of ‘The Alamo.’

    ______________

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgvTG5kRfJU

    “Evil Elon’s” Starship test flight coverage… if it is a success it should be a milestone in HSF akin to the first Saturn V launch in November, 1967… and a great moment for Texas.

    DCSCA (9a1ae3)

  121. Launch scrubbed again; recycling again; pressurization issue; wet testing to T minus 10 seconds.

    DCSCA (9a1ae3)

  122. JF: “does nevertrump have a winning vision other than “the electorate sucks”?”

    The GOP is hemorrhaging moderates and independents. The vision is to find a candidate that has the power to expand the tent and grow the party. There are voters out there starving for non-extreme positions and for changing the our dead-end toxic politics. But the challenge is that we then see comments like this:

    Rep. Lance Gooden of Texas (tweet): “I met with Governor DeSantis, and while he has done commendable work in Florida, there is no doubt in my mind that President Trump is the only leader who can save America from the leftist onslaught we are currently facing.”

    If this is the plurality view and where party leadership is at, then it looks like there is more losing that needs to be done to start changing hearts and minds….because this is a nutty view.

    AJ_Liberty (baacff)

  123. T-40…. hold…

    DCSCA (eb1539)

  124. @122. Revisit the vote count in 2020. THe party base is expanding… It’s losing RINOs and rejecting neocons.

    DCSCA (eb1539)

  125. Go for launch….

    DCSCA (eb1539)

  126. LIFTOFF! GO! GO! GO! Attaboy ‘Evil Elon!’

    DCSCA (eb1539)

  127. Awesome liftoff… still, a successful launch clearing the tower; integration issue; no sep and an N1 fate. Such is the nature of test flights… back to the drawing board. This is how NASA got off the ground.

    DCSCA (eb1539)

  128. #125

    It strikes me that “RINO” is a term now affixed to someone who was just an average Republican before 2016. I mean — any Bush — “RINO”. Romney “RINO”. McCain “RIP, but still RINO”. Cocaine Mitch “RINO” This is Orwell stuff. It’s the creation of perfidious traitors accomplished by simply moving goalposts around. Lenin would appreciate the technique (though Trotsky probably wouldn’t)

    It probably doesn’t amtter. These days, Lincoln would prefer to be a RINO.

    Appalled (03f53c)

  129. President Trump is the only leader who can save America from the leftist onslaught we are currently facing.”

    How is he going to do that? Extermination camps? I get the feeling that’s what many of his supporters want. Certainly “Rule of Law” is not the path they are choosing.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  130. TMSC owns Wafer Tech, a fab company located in Camas, Washington, across the Columbia River from Portland, Oregon.)

    WaferTech focuses on Embedded Flash process technology while supporting a broad TSMC technology portfolio on line-widths ranging from 0.35-microns down to 0.16-microns. We specialize in helping companies deliver differentiated products and work with them on a number of customized and manufacturing “phase-in” projects. As a result, WaferTech delivers the latest generation semiconductors around the globe, supporting innovations in automotive, communications, computing, consumer, industrial, medical and military/aerospace applications.

    Wafer Tech was founded in June, 1996.

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  131. @129. It’s nor Orwellian, A; it’s reality. If the pol clings to a label that no longer represents the majority of the base of their party, they’re simply place holding, ‘INO’ – in name only.

    DCSCA (2e6829)

  132. nor=not

    DCSCA (2e6829)

  133. @130. There hasn’t been ‘rule of law’ since Dick Nixon Days, Kevin. What you crave is justice– and ‘rule of law’ has been failing to satisfy that craving for several decades now.

    DCSCA (2e6829)

  134. It probably doesn’t matter. These days, Lincoln would prefer to be a RINO.

    Maybe the RINO Party could mount a 3rd party challenge.

    Back in the day, the Democrat-Republican Party, which had controlled the country for a quarter century, broke apart over the candidacy of Andrew Jackson. The new anti-Jackson party was eventually called the Whigs, and while they proved feckless over the issue of slavery they elected two presidents.

    Perhaps run Paul Ryan.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  135. It probably doesn’t amtter. These days, Lincoln would prefer to be a RINO.

    These days Lincoln would be a loser. Ask Bob Newhart:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcjz7VAljYs

    DCSCA (2e6829)

  136. Yeah, these gerrymandered dwarves, all they want is to keep their jobs.

    This Lance Gooden character out Blazing Saddles, for example, only got 17,501 votes in the first round of the GOP primary and 18,364 in the runoff (to his opponent’s 15,634), in the last election. But Trump carried the district with 61% of the vote. So Gooden knows what to kiss and when.

    nk (06106a)

  137. @131:

    0.16 microns (µm) is the same as 160nm, which was cutting edge at the turn of the century. Currently, advanced fabs are working in the 3-7 nm region. Perhaps this is OK for flash, but it is hardly cutting edge.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_device_fabrication

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  138. A Trump nomination will be the last election that the GOP exists as a major party. It will come apart like the Democrat-Republicans did over Jackson.

    I don’t mind the Republicans losing, I just mind them losing to the Democrats.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  139. This NORC poll shows the continuing erosion of Trump’s support, among Republicans.

    Twenty-two percent of Republicans say Trump did something illegal in the Georgia count, 15 percent say he did some unethical, but not illegal. Combined, that equals the percentage that say he did nothing wrong, 37 percent. As you have probably noticed, that leaves 26 percent who say they don’t know enough to have an opinion. (I think many of those simply don’t want to admit they have come to a negative opinion on the man they voted for.)

    There are similar results for other three questions.

    (For the record: Recently, a good friend asked me whether I thought Trump’s indictment was politically motivated. I answered that it probably was, in part, but that it might still be justified, legally. When prosecutors go after habitual criminals, the prosecutors, being human, often have a mix of motives.)

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  140. “Revisit the vote count in 2020”

    Yes, the GOP had 7M fewer votes which, spread across the electoral map, had them LOSE to basement Joe.
    For every vote gained by the GOP, it appears that Trump brought out more Democrats. Why would it be any different in 2024?

    But the wakeup here is that say Trump wins the GOP primary, we will see devastating ads of January 6th rioters dragging unconscious cops away from the Capitol entrance side-by-side with images of Trump exhorting the crowd and then sitting placidly watching TV as the riot plays out. Then, we will get ads showing Trump continuing to beat the election denialism drum after J6 paired with clips from his advisors testifying to Congress that there was nothing to it, including his typically accommodating attorney general Bill Barr.

    Again, we have so many Republican voters who aren’t rationally seeing the optics. Oath Keepers pummeling cops and then Trump saying “We love you”. He won’t get elected. He will lose moderates, suburban women, independents once the full-court press begins. The majority does not want someone unbalanced. We will see ads with General Milley worried about Trump launching a nuclear attack post J6….and Pompeo fearing that he would unilaterally try to take us out of NATO.

    The problem is the round pound that is going on in Right-Wing safe spaces. They can’t come to grips that January 6th did happen, it was awful, and that Trump still might get indicted for it. Trying to rationalize and excuse J6 is not a vision for winning in 2024. It’s just that simple….

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  141. I can sign on to AJs vision and wish more of the GOP was headed that way.

    Time123 (c39d0a)

  142. So, AJ, what should actual Republicans do to prevent a Trump or Socialism choice?

    Do we go with some, who argue that working for change is not an answer and “this is the best we can do”? Or do we actively work for something better?

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  143. I think we can go as far as the John Ford Cavalry Trilogy where every cavalry troop had a few former Confederates in it but only enough for entertainment value. Otherwise, sideline most the Trumpers and make up their numbers with people who don’t like AOC any more than we like MTG.

    nk (06106a)

  144. Jim Miller (0e46f9) — 4/20/2023 @ 8:00 am

    The NORC poll also shows that 55% of Republicans want to see Trump run for President, and that 86% of Republicans see the NY indictment as politically motivated and 74% as not justified.

    Republicans see his role as illegal in:

    January 6th (16%); 43% see nothing wrong;
    classified documents at MAL (20%); 32% nothing wrong;
    hush money payments (13%); 27% nothing wrong

    Unlike some wishcasting here, I don’t think he will be indicted for insurrection regarding January 6th; if anything it would be seditious conspiracy; but I have my doubts about that. It is to Trump’s advantage that any trials will take place in 2024 while the primary campaign is ongoing.

    He still has a 68% approval rating among Republicans, while

    Darling Nikki (36%)
    Tim Scott (29%)
    Asa Hutchinson (11%)
    Vivek Ramaswamy (17%)

    are all underwater.

    Ron DeSantis (63%) and Mike Pence (53%) are the only Republican prospective Presidential candidates with positive approval.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  145. Jim Miller-

    If you missed it, I responded to your criticism about the lack of nuclear arms negotiations. I would be interested in your comments.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  146. Sad!

    MyPillow founder and prominent election denier Mike Lindell made a bold offer ahead of a “cyber symposium” he held in August 2021 in South Dakota: He claimed he had data showing Chinese interference and said he would pay $5 million to anyone who could prove the material was not from the previous year’s U.S. election.

    He called the challenge “Prove Mike Wrong.”

    On Wednesday, a private arbitration panel ruled that someone did.

    The panel said Robert Zeidman, a computer forensics expert and 63-year-old Trump voter from Nevada, was entitled to the $5 million payout.

    Zeidman had examined Lindell’s data and concluded that not only did it not prove voter fraud, it also had no connection to the 2020 election. He was the only expert who submitted a claim, arbitration records show.

    He turned to the arbitrators after Lindell Management, which created the contest, refused to pay him.
    ……….
    Lindell said in a text to The Post: “They made a terribly wrong decision! This will be going to court!” His attorneys did not reply to a request seeking comment.

    A copy of contest rules submitted in the arbitration said disputes would be “resolved exclusively by final and binding arbitration” and noted that arbitration “is subject to very limited review by courts.”
    ………


    Free link.

    “Robert Zeidman, a computer forensics expert and 63-year-old Trump voter from Nevada……..”

    The irony abounds.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  147. @141. No, AJ; Populist Trump garnered a higher vote count in 2020 than in 2016, even w/t RINOs, nevertrumpers and ideologues abandoning the party and going ‘Kristol-mode’ and backing Squinty or some other fringe wacko. The party you believe exists- doesn’t anymore. You’re either out in the cold- or left behind.

    DCSCA (2e6829)

  148. A Trump nomination will be the last election that the GOP exists as a major party.

    Pfft. The GOP’s Dewey sought the nom in ’40- denied; got it in ’44- lost; got it again in ’48- lost… and played kingmaker for Ike in ’52. And somehow the Republican Party survived– even enduring your hero, crook Nixon, in ’68, ’72 and his disgraceful resignation in ’74. And then came a B-movie actor cowboying in out of the West.

    DCSCA (2e6829)

  149. He won’t get elected. He will lose moderates, suburban women, independents once the full-court press begins.

    Echoes of 2016. He can’t win… until he did.

    DCSCA (2e6829)

  150. wishcasting

    This is just insulting to other people’s opinions, Rip. Please stop.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  151. Echoes of 2020. He can’t win… until he didn’t, but claimed he did and tried to overthrow the government.

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  152. Trump’s Florida endorsements send DeSantis a stinging message

    Multiple lawmakers from the governor’s own state declined to back him this week.

    https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/19/23689747/trump-desantis-florida-endorsement

    DCSCA (2e6829)

  153. @153. In 2016, you can blame that ancient antique called the EC, as the Fire Plug got more of popular vote. In 2020 – so what: winners never quit; quitters never win.

    DCSCA (2e6829)

  154. 1964 Rockefeller Republicans told Goldwater backers they couldn’t win w/him getting the nom… but the ideological righties jumped off the cliff with him anyway. What goes around comes around.

    DCSCA (2e6829)

  155. For those who love polls, especially the SC Winthrop poll for April, some results that seem to have missed the cut:

    Approval/Favorability among Republicans:

    Tim Scott: 69%
    Nikki Haley: 73%
    Donald Trump: 74%

    Donald Trump is nothing special here.

    Trump only gets the support of 41% of SC voters for re-nomination. This is pretty weak in a strongly Christian state where a majority of all polled think “America holds a special place in God’s plan.”

    Kevin M (f94f4f)

  156. Trump only gets the support of 41% of SC voters for re-nomination.

    Kevin M (f94f4f) — 4/20/2023 @ 10:25 am

    If it weren’t for DeSantis (at 20%), Trump would be higher, and it doesn’t explain why Haley’s and Scott’s high approvals translate into support of 18% and 7% respectively in the SC primary. It’s not that they lack name recognition, one is a former governor and the other the current US Senator.

    While SC Republicans like Haley and Scott, they just don’t want them to be President.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  157. Populist Trump garnered a higher vote count in 2020 than in 2016…..

    The total voting eligible population (not including those barred from voting) in 2016 was 230.9M while in 2020 the eligible population was 239.3M, an increase of 8.3M voters; so only a portion of the increase in Trump’s share of the vote can be attributed to increased popularity; there were just more voters available to vote for him. In addition, total voter turnout increased by 23.0M between 2016 and 2020, or 7%, which was probably driven by more voters voting to oppose Trump than voting for him.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  158. In addition, total voter turnout increased by 23.0M between 2016 and 2020, or 7%, which was probably driven by more voters voting to oppose Trump than voting for him.
    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/20/2023 @ 11:38 am

    BS. The higher turnout was driven by mail in voting rules shenanigans

    But yeah, those rules shenanigans were driven by opposition to Trump

    JF (23fb68)

  159. BS. The higher turnout was driven by mail in voting rules shenanigans

    But yeah, those rules shenanigans were driven by opposition to Trump

    JF (23fb68) — 4/20/2023 @ 11:52 am

    Don’t worry, the GOP has a plan to reduce voter access.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  160. @159, Trump lost because a plurality of lawful voters preferred his opponent to him and voted accordingly. I’ve lost track of how many investigations of voter fraud have been undertaken. All of them failed to find fraud or errors sufficient to change the outcome of any state.

    The largest issue I’m aware of was a few hundred votes in a singe town that was found to be caused by a combination of old, dirty machines and an auto folder that put the crease in the wrong spot. Even then this didn’t change the outcome of any of the races involved.

    If anything the data from 2020 strongly supports that we can increase access to voting without much concern for increases in fraud.

    Time123 (8e2273)

  161. @143 “Or do we actively work for something better?”

    My comment #141 lays out the problem. Now, how does that resonate with persuadable GOP voters? This is likely what DeSantis, Haley, Scott, et al are weighing…and they are deciding what is the best timing for launching into the case against Trump. Clearly right now, they all pretty much believe that it is too early….and there does not seem to be any growing urgency from elected GOP politicians, mega donors, FNC, or Talk Radio. Why? There is a lot of bubble thinking right now. And as the Dominion case reinforces, the base wants to desperately believe that Trump remains viable, that he deserves a rematch, that J6 was no big deal, and that no matter how much baggage Trump has, he will always be better than any Democrat….and generates more excitement than any GOP competition.

    In the interim, the candidates have to be honing their local games….there’s probably little to be gained by going back and forth with Trump on Twitter or throwing food on cable news. People will just circle the wagons at this point. Press the flesh in Iowa and New Hampshire and make a positive case. We will have to patiently wait for the more hard-hitting ads for after summer. Winter is coming…and maybe more indictments. If it all fails to persuade, then the question becomes should some run as an independent. I’ve two minds on this. One, it’s a bad idea because it will destroy the GOP…Trump diehards would never forgive or forget. Two, rip the band-aid off. If J6 can’t break the spell, then let’s accelerate the chemotherapy.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  162. @158. Nice try. Bottom line: Trump got more votes in 2020 than in 2016. Populism is rooting deeper and deeper. End of story.

    DCSCA (e427e3)

  163. @162. It’s a ‘problem’ for the behind the paywall POV. Dissing GOP voters by stating, “Again, we have so many Republican voters who aren’t rationally seeing the optics” is insulting if not the very elitism GOP voters rejected to say the least– but likely ‘resonates’ well behind a paywall to those rejected ideologues and nevertrumper Kristol-types in the echo chamber of The Alamo.

    DCSCA (e427e3)

  164. While SC Republicans like Haley and Scott, they just don’t want them to be President.

    And how did the third South Carolina stooge do when he ran for POTUS against Trump?? Lindsey Graham tried to insult and ridicule The Donald and had his tail crushed like a butt on a Fifth Avenue sidewalk, his cellphone number revealed and now lives so far up the Donald’s tail he sees out the Orange Man’s nostrils.

    DCSCA (e427e3)

  165. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/20/2023 @ 11:59 am

    Wow! There is a feminine declension of Cletus. Cleta. I didn’t know that.

    nk (680e27)

  166. Fascinating article:

    https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/donald-trump-is-running-a-democratic-campaign

    I wonder what this means for the upcoming debt limit battle and how Trump plays it.

    Appalled (b29f0f)

  167. At least 8 members of congress/senate caught insider trading on bank stocks just before collapse. Nothing about it on DU since most ;but not all democrats.

    asset (43ff4a)

  168. @167. A. He’ll play it like ‘the Art of the Deal’ businessman he is. B. And the showman will depict something so dry and boring– as entertainment… as Trump isn’t in office.

    DCSCA (e427e3)

  169. OT- 51 years ago this evening, April 20, 1972– when America was still truly great, and showed the world why:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSXhb3J05ps

    “Ol’Orion is finally here, Houston!” Charlie Duke, LM Pilot, Apollo 16

    DCSCA (e427e3)

  170. @161 Their was fraud in the 2020 election that caused trump to lose. It was by republican legislators in their never ending battle to keep the libertarian party off the ballot in their states. The libertarian party is large enough so it can jump thru the hoops and get on the ballot ;however the green party is not and democrat party used these laws to kick green party off ballot. Disenfranchising voters like me who wanted to vote for the green party in 2020. ( I had to write them in on my ballot which most disenfranchised voters didn’t know how to do.) In wisconsin biden wins by 20,000 votes. In 2016 trump wins by 22,000 votes with jill stein getting 38,000. In michigan trump wins by 10,000 with jill stein taking 50,000 votes. Same in arizona where biden wins by 10,000 in 2016 green party’s jill stein got many thousands more votes then that. In georgia green party would have swung state to trump if it was on ballot and left democrats didn’t have to vote for biden. I have said this many times before ;but it doesn’t seem to get thru .

    asset (43ff4a)

  171. @170 great at what? over throwing governments? supporting dictators? Racism? Sexism? Homophobia? and plenty more.

    asset (43ff4a)

  172. 171. asset (43ff4a) — 4/20/2023 @ 3:09 pm

    @161 Their was fraud in the 2020 election that caused trump to lose. It was by republican legislators in their never ending battle to keep the libertarian party off the ballot in their states.

    That’s not fraud, although it could be called rigging.

    You’re saying it backfired on them, at least in Wisconsin [10 Electoral votes]

    The libertarian party is large enough so it can jump thru the hoops and get on the ballot ;however the green party is not and democrat party used these laws to kick green party off ballot. Disenfranchising voters like me who wanted to vote for the green party in 2020. ( I had to write them in on my ballot which most disenfranchised voters didn’t know how to do.)

    Since you are voting for electors and not presidential and vice presidential candidates I don’t know that you can do that when it comes to president. You may write some name in but maybe that’s not the right name.

    In wisconsin biden wins by 20,000 votes. In 2016 trump wins by 22,000 votes with jill stein getting 38,000. In michigan trump wins by 10,000 with jill stein taking 50,000 votes. Same in arizona where biden wins by 10,000 in 2016 green party’s jill stein got many thousands more votes then that. In georgia green party would have swung state to trump if it was on ballot and left democrats didn’t have to vote for biden. I have said this many times before ;but it doesn’t seem to get thru .

    Are you talking about the 216 or 2020 election?

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  173. The thing that most keeps down the vote is registration but pre-registration is a great protection against ringers.

    (In Wisconsin they made it more difficult for college students from out of state to register to vote in Wisconsin, which they were legally entitled to do. hat was a Republican initiative.)

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  174. 160. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/20/2023 @ 11:59 am

    Don’t worry, the GOP has a plan to reduce voter access.

    The Democrats don’t want to state that the man people being deprived of the right to vote are college students living temporarily in another sate.

    Those are the people who may not have state IDs.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  175. * that the MAIN people

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  176. 171. asset (43ff4a) — 4/20/2023 @ 3:09 pm

    @161 Their was fraud in the 2020 election that caused trump to lose. It was by republican legislators in their never ending battle to keep the libertarian party off the ballot in their states.

    That’s not fraud, although it could be called rigging.

    It’s neither fraud or rigging, it’s electoral gamesmanship.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  177. Tulsi Gabbard is now running as a Republican?

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)


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