[guest post by Dana]

Donald Trump has now arrived at his Trump Tower residence where he will stay until his arraignment tomorrow. Tapper says that his arrival is being covered by media outlets like it was O.J. in a white Bronco. While I dislike this overused word, the event is without question, “unprecedented”. Trump’s arrival comes after it was reported that the former president is opposed to having cameras in the courtroom. As his attorney explained, “It will create a circus-like atmosphere at the arraignment… (Oh, the irony…) Anyway, the lawyer also pointed out that if there were cameras in the courtroom, it would raise security concerns and that it would “be inconsistent with Donald Trump’s presumption of innocence”. News outlets have petitioned the judge presiding over the arraignment to allow cameras in the courtroom. Judge Juan Merchan is expected to rule on that today.

And since we’re talking about a former U.S. president arriving in New York so that he can appear for arraignment after being indicted by a grand jury, let’s not forget that Donald Trump isn’t just any former president: he is also the current 2024 Republican frontrunner. Last week, we discussed whether an indictment would or wouldn’t hurt his chances in the election, or if it might not have any impact at all. If the polling below is any indicator, he may just benefit from the proceedings. But of course, it’s still early days.

First, a pre-emptive strike: Yes, I know it’s the Trafalgar Group and that they are the conservative polling outfit that botched the prediction of a 2022 “red wave,” as well as having their their methodology questioned. And yet this polling is so curious that I’m inclined to share it. While it’s unsurprising that Trump continues to lead the pack (loyalists have certainly rallied around him post-indictment) and that DeSantis follows, it’s a bit surprising to see that Liz Cheney (?!) is making such a strong showing (and in double digits). What do you think is going on?

Post indictment poll: Trump surges to a 33-point lead over Ron DeSantis

Trump — 56% (+12 from Mar 14)
DeSantis — 23% (-9)
Cheney — 10%
Pence — 4%
Haley — 4%
Pompeo — 1%
T. Scott — 1%

Trafalgar (B) | 1,123 LV | Mar 31- Apr 2https://t.co/xSvJDDiVqK pic.twitter.com/EZa1fbdIZB

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 3, 2023

Details of the poll:

3 polls conducted–before Trump declared he would be indicted (3/14-19), after Trump declared he would be indicted (3/22-25), and after the actual indictment (3/31-04/02) • 1079, 1082, 1123 Respondents
• Likely GOP Presidential Primary Voters
• Response Rate: 1.4%, 1.4%, 1.5%
• Margin of Error: 2.9%
• Confidence: 95%
• Response Distribution: 50%

–Dana