Impeachment, Democrats, And 2020 Key States
[guest post by Dana]
While most Democrats support impeachment, Democrats in 2020 key states may take a hit as a result, which in turn could benefit Trump:
Democrats and Republicans are mirror opposites on the issue, with an average of 86 percent of Democrats supporting impeachment, compared with 9 percent of Republicans. Democrats have grown more united in their support for impeachment since before the inquiry began, when polls showed roughly two-thirds supported impeachment. Among Republicans, an average of 87 percent are opposed, while 8 percent of Democrats say the same.
[…]
Battleground state polls show a more negative reaction to the impeachment inquiry, signaling more risk to Democrats and potential benefit for Trump. An average of 44 percent supported impeachment, with 51 percent opposed, averaging across a dozen October and November polls in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin. That’s a flip from an average of national polls that finds support for impeachment narrowly edging opposition, 47 percent to 43 percent.
The depressed support for impeachment in key states was first signaled by a series of New York Times-Siena College polls conducted in mid-October, which found between 51 and 53 percent opposing impeachment in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
But several other polls also have found that support for impeachment in key 2020 states lags the country overall. At the most negative, a mid-November Marquette University Law School poll in Wisconsin found 40 percent of registered voters support impeaching and removing Trump, while 53 percent are opposed. Fox News polls in North Carolina and Nevada showed opposition to impeachment outpacing support by eight and seven points, respectively. The best results in key states have shown voters divided over impeachment, such as a Muhlenberg College poll of Pennsylvania voters.
Obviously these are states that Democrats are going to need to carry if they want to take back the White House in 2020. But in the meantime, Trump’s approval ratings remain steady and fairly unchanged since the impeachment inquiry began in earnest. The indication being that public hearings, witness testimony, and even on-going revelations about the president’s questionable behavior, untruthfulness or anything negative continues to have little impact:
In Gallup polling from mid-September to mid-November, Trump’s approval has tiptoed between 39 percent and 43 percent approving. In Quinnipiac University polls, the story is no different: Between 38 percent and 41 percent of registered voters approved of Trump from late September to late November.
Here are a few observations about impeachment and the 2020 election from three familiar swing states:
From Wisconsin:
About a third of people are saying they’re paying a lot of attention, but a third are saying little or no attention. So there’s, you know, a gap in the sort of degree to which this is a riveting exercise. And the other thing I’d follow up on is that the kinds of issues that we saw motivating voters in 2018 like health care and preexisting conditions are things that are largely absent from the discussion right now as impeachment dominates. When those proceedings are over, presumably we’ll come back to more the issues of the Democratic primary and shaping the fall election…Democrats favor impeachment, but not as nearly universally as Republicans oppose it. And the modest number of independents are a bit more opposed to impeachment than in favor of it, though the gap there’s not large.
From Michigan:
[P]eople here have made it very clear that the impeachment hearings are a political campaign. I don’t get a sense that they’re connecting it right now with anything except the 2016 election and the 2020 election…Trump and his reality show team are master marketers who have convinced his base that he is responsible for everything good in America, whether it’s legacy victories such as low unemployment rates here to the myth that farmers and autoworkers are doing better. No one’s really paying attention to issues because the issue right now is just Donald Trump, and that is not the way I think Democrats can win. Impeachment should not have been a campaign.
From Pennsylvania:
Republican suburban voters – the ones who really have had a problem with Trump’s comportment and either sat it out in 2016 or voted with them – but in 2018, they decided they wanted to put the brakes on him. They’re really struggling now with these new congressional members who ran on, you know, a different kind of politics – who ran on health care, who ran on, you know, getting things done. And they’re frustrated with this vote that they made.
Not that they like Trump any more – they still don’t like him. But they’re frustrated that the vote that they did give to the Democrats has turned out to be sort of opening up the road towards impeachment, and they don’t like that.
Can Democrats have already forgotten the brutal experiences of Hillary Clinton in those three states during the last presidential election?
(Cross-posted at The Jury Talks Back.)
–Dana
Hello.
Dana (6fefe0) — 12/3/2019 @ 1:37 pmDon’t care if it helps or hurts Trump. So far the evidence is clear that he abused his power for purely personal gain. Unless new evidence emerges to change that conclusion he should be impeached, and potentially removed from office.
Time123 (797615) — 12/3/2019 @ 2:00 pmIdeally all members of the House would weigh the evidence, come to their own conclusion about whether or not the President’s behavior constitutes “high crimes and misdemeanors,” and let the chips fall where they may, but of course in this climate — in an election year no less — hoping for that would be preposterous. Though I will respect any Democrat in an anti-Trump district who decides impeachment is not appropriate, just as I will respect any Republican in a pro-Trump district who decides that it is.
JVW (54fd0b) — 12/3/2019 @ 2:01 pmOnce again, McCarthy is on target here:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/12/impeachment-power-can-be-abused/
His conclusion:
Do read the whole thing…
whembly (fd57f6) — 12/3/2019 @ 2:31 pmHow comical. Let’s find out what people think about a procedure, the intent of which is to make what they think totally irrelevant come November.
Munroe (dd6b64) — 12/3/2019 @ 2:34 pmI think the Dems have made their political calculations. They passed on the Mueller report, which pissed off a good number of Democrats, so they couldn’t let this Ukraine Mess slide. IMO, they would lose turnout if they didn’t take this opportunity that Trump handed them.
Paul Montagu (00daa1) — 12/3/2019 @ 2:56 pmAnother 300 page report nobody will read???? WTF is wrong with these idiots?
Watching the likes of Schiff & Co., wag their fingers at ‘We the People’ and crow over their “oaths” and “Constitutional responsibilities,” one can’t help but chuckle at how selective they are about it– when was the last time they ran and hid from actually havin the guts to declare a war?
And if “impeachment” is such a pressing issue for the country, with self-imposed time constraints, why more time off— and what the hell is Frisco Pelosi doing in Spain giving pressers?!
We’re paying for this Christmas turkey; meanwhile, the business of the people grows stale. Both these major parties are doing more damage to America than Russia or China–or Iran and the Axis powers could have dreamed. Calendar Boy Putin’s not just smiling–he’s beaming in his snappy new suits.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 12/3/2019 @ 2:58 pm@7 better this than handling it like the GOP; picking a set of lies that are easy to sell and then repeating them over and over again.
Time123 (797615) — 12/3/2019 @ 3:29 pm@8. “Ain’t nuttin’ gonna happen…” – ‘Quincy Maddox’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiKrWUoTq4s
DCSCA (797bc0) — 12/3/2019 @ 3:44 pmThe real danger is that the Democrats won in 2018 on the basis of their stand on health care. However, having won the House they did NOTHING WHATSOEVER to fix Obamacare or curtail high drug prices. A functional Congress, even a divided one, can manage compromise legislation if they have the will. Look at what W did with Medicare Part D, with bipartisan support.
Now they will go back to their constituents next year with a huge vulnerability, and their GOP opponents will be able to play the health care card back at them.
I suspect, though, that the Democrats are going to try to nationalize the election again, based on “Trump sucks.” Time will tell if the electorate is still in a mood to hear the same old rant.
Kevin M (19357e) — 12/3/2019 @ 5:28 pmThe argument that Trump used the Ukrainian government as a tool to damage his domestic opponents only works if that was all it was. If, instead, young Biden was up to his neck in dirty dealing and [US] influence peddling, Trump is not only cleared but is owed a deep apology.
Yes, I know there are some that are certain that Trump was crooked here, because Trump is crooked everywhere, but it’s not hard to find the fallacy in that.
Kevin M (19357e) — 12/3/2019 @ 5:33 pmIMO, they would lose turnout if they didn’t take this opportunity that Trump handed them.
They would have to have found a different opportunity had Trump not done this. “…the crime to fit the man.”
Kevin M (19357e) — 12/3/2019 @ 5:35 pmMy family motto is “You don’t regret the things you do, you regret the things you don’t do.” Let’s impeach and remove the mother-figure and we’ll worry about the consequences when they happen.
I got up this morning with a feeling of general well-being. The air smelled fresher, the sun shone warmer. And we’re talking about December in Chicago. Then I checked. It was my subliminal Trumpdar. There’s an ocean between the orange stench and the White House.
nk (dbc370) — 12/3/2019 @ 5:38 pmTrump is crooked. Biden’s kid is also crooked. Neither should be president. The idea that I have to choose for one of them to be acceptable is a very good example of the mindset that got us where we are.
Dustin (cafb36) — 12/3/2019 @ 5:38 pmAside from getting a check for doing little or nothing in return, exactly what “dirty dealing” and “influence peddling” did young Biden do? Show me.
Paul Montagu (00daa1) — 12/3/2019 @ 5:50 pm@14 I definitely don’t plan to vote for Trump or Hunter Biden for President. I’m pretty sure nobody plans to vote for Hunter Biden for President.
Nic (896fdf) — 12/3/2019 @ 6:00 pmAside from getting a check for doing little or nothing in return, exactly what “dirty dealing” and “influence peddling” did young Biden do? Show me.
He took the heat off Burisma, direct heat and indirect heat. His daddy stopped calling for a prosecutor who would investigate Burisma, and the prosecutors on their own would think twice about going after a company which had the baby-boy of the Vice President of the United States on its payroll. It’s the Chicago Way, and don’t you think for a minute that’s not what Papa Biden was pulling when he threatened to withhold the $1 billion in aid in the infamous video.
nk (dbc370) — 12/3/2019 @ 6:07 pmnk,
I agree that Zlochevsky brought Hunter Biden on board because he had a political agenda and wanted to get into the good graces of the Obama administration, but I see no evidence his “investment” produced anything to his benefit. And that’s kind of the problem: Assertions are being made without an iota of backup. The furthest this can be taken is that VP Biden had the appearance of a conflict-of-interest, which is eyebrow-raising and probably unethical but not illegal.
This would be true if the prosecutor was actually doing any investigating into Burisma or Zlochevsky, but there’s no evidence. By sources not named Shokin or Lutsenko or Kulyk, who all lived well beyond their government salaries and are generally regarded as corrupt, the chances of Burisma getting investigated were enhanced by Shokin’s sacking. The only problem was that Shokin’s successor, Lutsenko, was only slightly less corrupt than Shokin. Ironically, both are legally represented by the Toensing-DiGenova legal team, the same cats who are representing Dirty Ukrainian Oligarch Firtash and that hack “journalist” John Solomon, and who are buddy-buddy with Giuliani and Trump. As I see it, the corruption is coming from the Trump side of the ledger, not the Biden side.
Paul Montagu (00daa1) — 12/3/2019 @ 6:28 pmnk (dbc370) — 12/3/2019 @ 6:07 pm
The video (and a transcript) is here:
https://www.cfr.org/event/foreign-affairs-issue-launch-former-vice-president-joe-biden
Do a text search for the first mention of Donbas.
The only thing is, although nobody in either party, or even in the press has said so, I think Joe Biden made the whole story up two years after the fact.
One thing is for certain: The prosecutor did not get fired while Joe Biden was there. Probably also that there never was going to be any such announcement at a press conference in Kiev while Biden was there. I think that if George Kent had been asked the right question they’d have found that out.
Sammy Finkelman (ce04e1) — 12/3/2019 @ 6:48 pmDonald Trump was still at it on Joe and Hunter Biden on September 25, the day he released the transcript of the Julk 25 call. He held a press conference a the U,N. together with Ukrainian President Zelensky, part of which went:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-president-zelensky-ukraine-bilateral-meeting-new-york-ny
Sammy Finkelman (ce04e1) — 12/3/2019 @ 7:11 pmZelensky’s English isn’t all that good. I think when he said “Don’t cry” He meant: “Don’t shout” (as in cry out)
In the July 25 call Zelinsky’s words weren’t all in English according to Vidmann. But a lot of ti sounds like mistakes someone who doesn’t quite know English perfectly might make.
Sammy Finkelman (ce04e1) — 12/3/2019 @ 7:14 pmThe Democratic caucus is divided on whether to limit articles of impeachment to abuse of power with regards to Ukraine or to expand them to include the multiple obstruction of justice charges outlined in the Mueller report. I think they should throw everything at him, including kitchen sinks filled with violations of the emoluments clause, bank and tax fraud, perjury, witness intimidation, and generally being an asshole.
Gawain's Ghost (6da1c0) — 12/3/2019 @ 7:45 pmThe House Judiciary Committee hearing is about to begin. It is not taking place in their usual room because of the size of the audience.
Sammy Finkelman (ce04e1) — 12/4/2019 @ 7:09 amNadler claims the facts are undisputed. He;s stating as fact that the meeting with Zelinsky and the military aid was withheld to try to get investigations and applied “go through things” to the events after it became public. He says Trump tries to cover it up (including creating false records>) Most of it is true, though. He’s directed every witness not to testify and maligned witnessess.
Nadler sounds like he is bitt happy it came back to the Judiciary Committee.
He has some tropes – like this happened because Mueller cleared him
He says there’s precedent for impeachment for obstruction but never before has ..for personal political advantage. He said that (this time) a president did all of the things (treason too?), but he doesn’t say.
At least you can get a grip on it.
Sammy Finkelman (ce04e1) — 12/4/2019 @ 7:16 amAnyone else watch Trump’s rambling, incoherent press conference at the NATO summit?
I did, and it was embarrassing. Here’s a pretty good summary of how it went.
https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-summit-recap-trump-embarrassing-nobody-taking-seriously-2019-12
Trump is a national disgrace. Or I should say a Republican disgrace. He is so totally unfit for office that it boggers the mind to think why the GOP ever nominated him to begin with. And now they’re defending him? Butt gerbils gonna butt gerbil.
The Democrats are divided on articles of impeachment. They fear the Clinton response, which is that Trump will become more popular among the electorate. That’s just nonsense.
Trump is a national disgrace, or I should say a Republican disgrace. He should be brought up on all charges and thrown out of office.
Gawain's Ghost (6da1c0) — 12/4/2019 @ 7:26 amWatching the HJC right now…
….I don’t think Democrats realizes how partisan-hackery this will be seen by those outside of the DC/Media bubble.
However, I’m impressed by Jonathan Turley’s opening statement and largely tracks may views.
whembly (fd57f6) — 12/4/2019 @ 8:45 amI read Turley’s opening statement on line. He is simply repeating the basic White House talking points. “You can’t actually prove Trump did it” should not be the first line of defense. Or the second, third, or fourth.
Are the Democrats acting like partisan hacks? Yes. But so are the Republicans. The two wings of the Duopoly are fighting over which one gets to put the boot on your neck….
kishnevi (496414) — 12/4/2019 @ 8:55 amHe’s actually more compelling watching live, especially towards the end about the dangerous precedent this could set.
I’d recommend that you’d watch it once it becomes available.
Turley is a flaming liberal professor…. but he’s an extremely pragmatic liberal professor.
Pretty much. Which is why lowering the bar for presidential impeachment is a dangerous thing going forward. Are we willing to accept this as the “new normal” when there’s a Democrat President and Republican House? (my answer to that is ‘No’… because if it does become the new normal, nothing will get done and the already apathetic US voters )
whembly (fd57f6) — 12/4/2019 @ 9:27 am