Patterico's Pontifications

11/7/2013

Will the “Defund ObamaCare” Campaign Come to Be Seen As Genius Some Day?

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 6:27 pm



There are a lot of shoes still to drop on this ObamaCare thing. Commenter JVW sums up much of it nicely:

The first crisis of ObamaCare was the failure of the website rollout. The second is the cancellation of existing policies, regardless of the promises that Dear Leader made. The third will be the sticker shock come the enrollment deadline when practically everyone discovers they are paying more than expected. The fourth will be the completely predictable — except to the administration and its fan club — announcement that instead of reducing the deficit by the $250 billion over 10 years that they promised, ObamaCare is now forecasted to increase the deficit due to the expanded need for subsidies and the drag on economic growth. And the fifth crisis will be the full implementation of the cost control panels, which will impose British-style rationing of health care.

There’s at least one crisis missing from that summary: the crisis that will occur when people learn that their new and improved plans — you know, the ones with the higher premiums and deductibles — also have a smaller network of providers. Thus, after sticker shock, we will get access shock. “If you like your plan, you can keep your plan” will be forgotten as people rage about an even more insidious lie: “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor.”

It’s non-stop bad news for months and months to come.

And, thanks to the defund effort, it will be indelibly seared into voters’ minds that the members of one party wanted to stop this so badly, they were willing to not-really-shut-down the government to make it happen.

The defund strategy got us bad poll results in the short term. I wonder if the decision to stand on principle will start to look smart, once voters realize just how bad ObamaCare really is.

P.S. Enjoy this video (start watching around 11:42) with Obama talking about the damned Republican scaremongering, and reassuring people that nothing will change in the individual market.

Thanks to Elephant Stone.

82 Responses to “Will the “Defund ObamaCare” Campaign Come to Be Seen As Genius Some Day?”

  1. P.S. JVW says it’s all groundwork for single payer. So, the long game can work both ways.

    Patterico (9c670f)

  2. Mary Katharine Ham at HotAir.com just posted a clip (and the transcript) of Obama actually making the promise about people keeping their plan who were in the individual market.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2013/11/07/obama-promised-on-sept-26-that-people-in-individual-market-would-keep-their-plans/

    Elephant Stone (6a6f37)

  3. I think it will. I posted the following on the other thread… maybe it’s old news, don’t know. But this is so wrong… these people knew what they were doing, which was setting the stage for lining their pockets…

    “At times it seems like the sheer magnitude of bad news about ObamaCare can redound to its own benefit. It’s easy for individual pieces of bad news to get lost in the sea of failure that has characterized the Obama administration’s signature “achievement.” That might be the case with the most important story to appear about ObamaCare this week, from Tuesday’s edition of the New York Times.

    The paper reported that the Obama administration has ruled that the federal health-care program be exempted from the category of laws considered “federal health care programs.” Now, this is obviously dishonest: the federal government is running insurance exchanges, funding health-care subsidies under the law, and employing federal workers to help manage the law–all of which are clearly “federal health care programs.” So why would the administration choose not to label them according to observable reality? Because, as the Times explained, this decision–believe it or not–exempts ObamaCare from kickback restrictions and anti-fraud protections…”

    http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2013/11/07/obamacares-crony-capitalism-worse-than-we-thought/#more-836300

    Colonel Haiku (829453)

  4. Meghan’s coward daddy says elections have consequences and Obamacare is the law of the land!

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  5. Mr. W is dead nuts on target.

    Unfortunately for Ogabe we will be in dire straits afore then.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-07/student-and-car-loans-represent-99-all-consumer-credit-taken-out-past-year

    60% of home sales are cash. If you’re a builder the Ramen noodles are not going to last.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  6. They’re going to have to start from scratch with the entire system, otherwise it’s death by a thousand cuts. Software needs testing and re-testing prior to going live.
    Max Baucus was right to ask whether the application can be fixed on-the-fly. It’s too difficult.

    Amalgamated Cliff Divers, Local 157 (f7d5ba)

  7. It’s like a rotten onion… more you peel it, worse the rot is.

    Colonel Haiku (829453)

  8. It’s like a rotten onion… more you peel it, worse the rot is.

    There’s no easy solution either. The whole sh!t sammich is predicated on healthy people signing up. They have to know that if a certain threshold of healthy people signing up isn’t met, and just the sick, poor, and elderly enroll, 404Care doesn’t work.

    Amalgamated Cliff Divers, Local 157 (f7d5ba)

  9. The DELAY pivot will be seen as genius, doubly so as Obama probably wishes he took them up on it.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  10. The Republicans ought to begin every Sunday morning show with “Remember, the President shut down the government rather than delay this thing.”

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  11. the seventh shock will be sitting with your sick kid in a filthy overcrowded doctor’s office filled with dirty foodstampers coughing up their tuberculosis in your face

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  12. Since the GOP has no stomach to push Obamacare failure as a real issue, probably not much will happen. The media is running it’s usual cover as best it can.

    I think it may get interesting when the employer mandate extension ends and everybody except union members get dumped into Obamacare.

    A few red state Dem senators may get re-elected, maybe enough to retain the Senate. However, they may live to regret the choice to run again.

    Meanwhile, people are going to do what people do. They will find the unintended loopholes and the whole thing will eventually collapse.

    Ag80 (eb6ffa)

  13. There is an additional crisis, when, just before the midterms, all those people with company plans get shoved into the new, better, policies on the employer exchanges. Anyone want to bet that the employers eat the cost hits?

    At the same time the individual market will be doing it’s second year enrollments and the insurance industry, hard hit by the plethora of old sick first-time buyers and the lack of young fools to subsidize them double all the rates.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  14. *its

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  15. The 8th Shock will be waking up one morning on teh wrong side of teh lawn…

    Colonel Haiku (58bb61)

  16. Don’t you just love central master planners?

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  17. I think we all know single-payer was the ultimate goal, but the Dems completely blew that in their zeal to lay the groundwork.

    After this complete bollocks, how can any candidate run on a platform of allowing the government to be the only insurance provider?

    Ag80 (eb6ffa)

  18. I bet you our ingratitude just sets Barack’s teeth on edge.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  19. 16. That’s the ninth shock.

    The eighth is Doctor’s will make soup line calls for jewelry upfront.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  20. Megan McCardle who has written the best and most truthful stuff about ACA over the past few months basically says that people who fear (or dream of) moving or transitioning to single payer out of this convoluted and messy monstrosity and with this team of incompetents and liars in charge are nuts. I like Megan’s writing on this topic because she does her analysis always with an ear to politics, but uses her considerable technological knowledge, while never overlooking and in fact honing in on the larger taxpaying citizens’ point of view which so few wonks seem to.

    This is one of her better columns.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-05/obamacare-shouldn-t-have-been-managed-like-a-campaign.html

    elissa (d0035d)

  21. I’m sorry, but what other model, was Obama going to rely on, his vast executive experience, at say the Chicago Annenberg challenge, he knows no other model, McArdle should have known this,

    narciso (3fec35)

  22. 22. I don’t think I understand your comment. Why on earth are you blaming McArdle for the administraton’s eff ups? (at least that’s what it sounds like.) She’s one of the good guys, narciso. What should she “have known”?

    elissa (d0035d)

  23. I think Cruz is a genius.

    The big loser is anyone associated with the Federal Government.

    A teeny rate cut in Europe and Japan’s market dives 400 with momentum.

    Volatility takes another quantum leap.

    They say its not the fall that kills.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  24. people who fear (or dream of) moving or transitioning to single payer out of this convoluted and messy monstrosity and with this team of incompetents and liars in charge are nuts.

    Then explain California.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  25. Let us not forget what will also happen as these suits wend their way up to the SC. Language is clear that an applicant can only qualify for a subsidy i they enroll through a “state” exchange. How much sticker shock do you think they will see if there is no subsidy.

    In October of 2014 there will also be the notices going out to the employers from the insurance companies cancelling group policies….estimates are 90 million policy holders to be impacted.

    rayabacus (d54012)

  26. The 10th Shock… you find yourself driving thru New Mexico and…

    Colonel Haiku (a6bc62)

  27. Language is clear that an applicant can only qualify for a subsidy i they enroll through a “state” exchange.

    Roberts has already ignored worse.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  28. … six hours later you’ve met your annual Obamacare copay.

    nk (dbc370)

  29. Timing is everything:

    http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2013/11/fundamental-transformation-or-coup-detat.html

    I know there are a lot of brownshirt wannabes about. I just think the ‘transformation’ will be harder to wind up than these malcreants suppose.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  30. Miscreant, Doh.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  31. 29. That’s funny, but it hurts.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  32. What should Republicans do when the Dems, as they inevitably will be forced to do, come to the House to beg for a delay in the implementation of O’Care?

    Other than respond with hysterical laughter, that is.

    orcadrvr (2977be)

  33. a lot of the fascists have relatives and friends what are going to be hurt badly by foodstampcare

    close relatives and friends

    I’m sure even a fascist propaganda heifer like Candy Crowley has some small number of friends and/or family, and some number of them ones are well on their way to getting raped silly by the foodstampcare

    I wonder how that feels

    I guess I’ll never know

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  34. Well, you could email candy at CNN and aks her, feets.

    elissa (d0035d)

  35. she lies, elissa

    it’s her job

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  36. OK. Well, maybe if you sort of softened her up a little first–gained her trust– like, by recommending a nice low carb diet plan or some such.

    elissa (d0035d)

  37. i could offer her a plate of succulent fried balls of meat in exchange for the truth

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  38. ranch on the side baby

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  39. Not to get too personal but I think keeping the relationship with Candy long distance and over the internets would be a better idea.

    elissa (d0035d)

  40. and still I dream she’ll come to me that we will live the years together

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  41. Wikipedia is your friend, happyfeet.

    “Crowley is a vegetarian and practices Transcendental Meditation. She is divorced, and has two children and two stepchildren. Her older child is a neurosurgeon and her younger son a musician.”

    Maybe the musician will get the benefit of Obamacare. Especially if he’s a drummer or bassist.

    And you need to take back your appellation of heifer. A heifer is a young cow which has not calved.

    nk (dbc370)

  42. The hardcore left won’t abandon their way of thinking no matter what. Liberals whose plans were cancelled will say something like “I support the law, but it does have some problem”. The gullible can be made to blame the insurance companies.

    To be honest, I don’t think the IRS can do much to enforce the law. Most milliennials won’t get tax returns, and lots of people get paid in cash nowadays. The premium shock is mostly felt by middle class folks. It might takes some time for the lower class to feel the sting of crowded hospital and medicaid.

    This could be a very long term thing. No one in my Asian circle is even thinking about buying healthcare. Sometimes outreach to minorities comes to you.

    lee (807b40)

  43. she is a very very special snowflake

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  44. They just didn’t f@ck everyone hard enough yet. If they f@ck everyone longer and harder, then they will appreciate progressive utopian dreams.

    JD (1d1ef1)

  45. i had a utopian dream that life would be so different than what food stamp’s giving

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  46. If the RINOs actually got angry about it, then it was probably a great idea.

    Dustin (303dca)

  47. Here’s my dyspeptic view of our future:

    Winter 2014 – Obama demands reconsideration of a “public option,” seeing as how the private insurers are “gouging” their customers
    Spring 2014 – Harry Reid manages to get a vote for the public option through the Senate; Dems and the media criticize Boehner and the House GOP for not holding a vote
    Fall 2014 – Republican infighting means they fall short of their goal of re-taking the Senate
    Spring 2015 – As part of the “Grand Bargain” in the budget, the GOP gets nominal entitlement and tax reform but agrees to allow for a public option in Obamacare, on the condition that it be self-financed
    Winter 2016 – The public option is rolled-out; the GOP complains that it is significantly cheaper than private plans and accuses the Obama Administration of illegally using taxpayer funds to subsidize the premiums, while also forcing private plans to increase their costs; the media largely yawns
    Spring 2016 – Hillary Rodham Clinton narrowly defeats Elizabeth Warren in the late primaries to secure the Democrat nomination; immediately offers her the VP slot on a unity ticket in return for calling for a massive expansion of subsidies ObamaCare, most of which drive people to the public option
    Fall 2016 – After long recounts in Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, the Clinton/Warren ticket is declared the electoral college winner over the Cruz/Christie ticket. Dems pick up a couple of Senate seats and re-take the House when third-party candidates cause GOP reps to lose 35 elections.
    Winter 2017 – The New York Times, now owned by Al Jazeera, gets around to noticing that most employers have stopped offering insurance coverage and have instead released their employees to the ObamaCare exchanges.
    Spring 2017 – More expansion of subsidies; financial crisis and weak economy have caused tax rates to rise to 50% for wealthiest, 40% for next bracket, 33% for next bracket
    Spring 2018 – HHS announces that 66% of Americans are enrolled in ObamaCare exchanges. Only about 20% of Americans still have private insurance, and 14% continue to be unenrolled. A task-force chaired by VP Warren declares this a “crisis” and proposes a single-payer plan.
    Fall 2018 – Dems run for Congress on unified single-payer platform; win 95% of black vote, 80% of Hispanic vote, 67% of the under-30 vote, and 65% of women vote. Dems gain 7 seats in Senate, including defeating Ted Cruz in Texas, and 25 more seats in House. No Republicans represent districts within the 25 largest U.S. cities or in any coastal state above North Carolina or on the West Coast.
    Spring 2019 – Single-payer bill is introduced in Congress, voted on, and passed in both Houses. No one in Washington has read the entire bill. President HR Clinton presides over signing bill in Rose Garden, flanked by former President Obama, Secretary of Health Bernie Sanders, and NY Senator Bill de Blasio.
    Fall 2021 – With Clinton & Warren safely reelected, the single-payer plan implementation begins. Sec. Sanders announces the formation of the Healthcare Rationing Board and End-of-Life Counseling Committee.

    Sweet dreams, my fellow Americans.

    JVW (709bc7)

  48. Why did Stalin have to kill UMPTEEN MILLION RUSSIAN/SOVIET citizens??

    They just wouldn’t listen.

    Obama has NO MORAL COMPASS. NONE. Sebelius = likewise. Hillary Rodham is also a SOCIOPATH.
    But I do have good news!!!! Joe Biden is only a SOCIOPATH-LITE!!!!

    Gus (70b624)

  49. Another crisis missing (technically) from the summary that deserves being called a crisis all on its own is going to be the massive cancellation of employer-provided plans in 2015. That’s going to be the redwood trunk that breaks the camel’s back. By that time it will have already become very not-fun to be a Democrat; after 6 weeks or so of businesses shedding hours and insurance plans like a cat in the spring, the few donkeys left in safely Democratic districts can bray for single payer all they want. The rest will be looking into whether or not it’s not too late to run as a Republican in 2016.

    deepelemblues (a4e03f)

  50. A lot of hospitals already battling to stay in the green, including our local facility. Chatted with a physician the other day who said he can’t afford any more Medicaid cuts – also takes inordinate amount of time to be reimbursed. Train wreck for some hospitals & already substantial layoffs in that industry. Wonder how many will go under.

    http://www.westernjournalism.com/top-hospitals-wont-treat-obamacare-patients/

    Judy Eaton (aee826)

  51. David Limbaugh offers his own list of Obama’s lies and ObamaCare’s crises.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  52. The problems keep coming: Chief IT officer fired by Obama might have been terminated for refusing to sign false certification if Healthcare.gov’s security.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  53. For elissa,

    Your Sen. Mark Kirk and Sen. Manchin have filed a bill to delay ObamaCare. I haven’t read the bill but I like the effort.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  54. Actually, the bill only delays the individual mandate, not the entire law.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  55. There are numerous indications Ogabe’s dark designs are not limited to Amerikkka and her destruction alone:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/11/08/exclusive-obama-s-secret-iran-d-tente.html

    1 Million left the labor force last month, 600K full-time positions lost, the BLS divines from its employer survey that 40% more jobs were created, all temporary.

    Civil War, the Prequel, saw the rest of the world, with the minor exception of British protection of its cotton input, leave us alone.

    This time it will be different.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  56. Another crisis, IMO, will be the sticker shock of the cadillac plans for those lucky enough to have survived the cancellation purge.

    Patricia (be0117)

  57. Andrew Kohut at the WSJ says the GOP is in better shape than we think: Independents favor the GOP on handling the economy by a whopping 46%-30% margin..

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  58. “I wonder if the decision to stand on principle will start to look smart, once voters realize just how bad ObamaCare really is.”

    Been saying this for weeks, now…

    NeoCon_1 (062f23)

  59. The defnd Obamacare campaign was very stupid, because it was sthe wrong thing to ask for. It also was stupid because the public considered a government shutdown worse.

    If the idea was to make clear that Republicans had opposed Obamacare, Cruz’s speech (and otehr things made that clear.

    Sammy Finkelman (9e0380)

  60. It’s non-stop bad news for months and months to come.

    From where I sit it looks like the hysteria is already dying down. I stand by my earlier prediction that by the end of the first week of december the topic won’t even show on memorandum, or at best will only show up in the occasional attempt by righty blogs to keep the issue alive (much like benghazi now).

    Tlaloc (45c5b7)

  61. Andrew Kohut at the WSJ says the GOP is in better shape than we think: Independents favor the GOP on handling the economy by a whopping 46%-30% margin.

    Yes, DRJ, but that only means that the Dems will run an excessively awful 2014 campaign centered around gays, sex, and race. It will be non-stop “the GOP hates young women and won’t let them have birth control” or “the GOP wants to jail anyone who doesn’t love male figure skating” or “the GOP is concerned about immigration only because they think that Tecate cerveza is cutting too deeply into the Budweiser market.” We are almost guaranteed a shrill and nasty campaign as Obama gears up his machine one last time and Hillary and others start racking up chits to use in 2016.

    JVW (709bc7)

  62. Yes, it will be squirrel city, but they have run out of nuts to feed them.

    narciso (3fec35)

  63. Tlaloc should prolly spend his precious free time over on lefty sites where they’re handwringing over the status of OCare and sobbing over the president’s plummeting poll numbers. You’d think he’d want to go shore them up instead of hanging around here, wouldn’t you?. The Dems in Washington are certainly not buying his “it’ll all be hunky dory by the first week on December” hooey. They are scared s#itless.

    elissa (d0035d)

  64. Andrew Kohut at the WSJ says the GOP is in better shape than we think: Independents favor the GOP on handling the economy by a whopping 46%-30% margin.

    The problem with that data point is that independent is a label that has gone through a transition the last 10 years. It used to basically identify the moderate voters who didn’t identify strongly with either party. The schism on the right however has led to a number of tea party type conservatives to start calling themselves independents out of disgust with their own party. These people are not moderates in any sense of the term and will not vote for dems except in the most extreme case of sabotaging gop candidates they despise.

    Consequently the right has often won independent even while losing elections, a situation that not long ago was very rare. The most recent example is the VA governor race where Cuccinelli won independents by 12 points but lost the race overall.

    Tlaloc (45c5b7)

  65. The Dems in Washington are certainly not buying his “it’ll all be hunky dory by the first week on December” hooey. They are scared s#itless.

    While it’s never a bad idea to bet on dems chickening out, I really don’t see any of this panic you think is engulfing them.

    Tlaloc (45c5b7)

  66. Tlaloc probably thinks he’s going to buy the winning lottery ticket and become a gamillionaire, too. He seems gullible like that.

    elissa (87e2bc)

  67. “the hysteria dying down”… TaFailot doesn’t even realize the real sh*t hasn’t hit the fan yet. Poor sod…

    Colonel Haiku (c0295c)

  68. Willy Wonka’s tickets certainly,

    narciso (3fec35)

  69. elissa… a relationship w/Candy Crowley is by definition “long distance”, and for obvious reasons, nudge, nudge…

    Colonel Haiku (a6bc62)

  70. How’s teh Five Year Plan workin’ out for ya, TaFailalot?

    Colonel Haiku (a6bc62)

  71. Heard somebody say the going to the moon mission took less time than the rollout of obamacare.

    mg (31009b)

  72. It is utter nonsense to claim the “defund” movement had anything to do with it besides building huge databases for Cruz and Lee to use for fundraising and preventing Cuccinelli from winning in Virginia.

    The public knew which party was for and against PPACA. Even Obama and the Democrats were fond of reminding them of Republican obstructions. Not a single Republican vote for it, 39 repeals passed by the House. Even those who opposed 404Care were against using the shutdown to stop it, the act was futile grandstanding.

    Cruz’ brain-dead cult following resembles Obama’s own more than any conservative movement.

    Public opinion of the GOP went DOWN as a result of the “defund” shutdown nonsense, and people are stupid enough to believe it helped?

    As I said at the time, the best weapon against Obama-Care was to let it be enforced without futher delay. Let the people see it. We didn’t need a three week circus for that.

    Estragon (19fa04)

  73. Estragon, the public opinion of the Democrats went down in the aftermath of the shutdown too. The shutdown reinforced that the GOP opposed Obamacare, and also made Obama and the Democrats double-down on no delays.

    The defund movement did not prevent Cuccinelli from winning. The polling of Virginia simply does not show that at all.

    Spare us the “brain dead” cult horse manure.

    SPQR (768505)

  74. Tlaloc’s opinions are as worthless as ever, I see.

    SPQR (768505)

  75. 66. Even if any of that made any sense at all, the American dream of sitting at the 19th hole with your buggerers eating little wieners and slamming back Sierra Nevada as POTUS is about to pop.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-08/guest-post-how-china-can-cause-death-dollar-and-entire-us-financial-system

    The reason you are the stupidest person in the room is that there is no political hope for your envisioned future.

    The Federal government is bankrupt several times over.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  76. 76. Estragon supposes Igor lived when the villagers stormed Frankenstein’s citadel?

    The Senate GOP will take it in the butt for sticking us with the bill as surely as will the Dhimmis.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  77. Here’s a link to ar article on the Virginia exit polls that supports SPQR’s #77.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  78. From all indications, Cuccinelli’s campaign hid their ace in the whole, leaving them defenseless against McAwful.

    narciso (3fec35)


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