Patterico's Pontifications

2/15/2010

Sen. Evan Bayh leaving the Senate

Filed under: General — Karl @ 10:49 am



[Posted by Karl]

He voted for ObamaCare and all he got was this lousy bus ticket. He must think taking the bus out of town beats being under it in November:

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh will not seek re-election this year, a decision that hands Republicans a prime pickup opportunity in the middle of the country.

***

In his statement, Bayh cited the lack of bipartisan comity as one of the main reasons for the decision. “There is too much partisanship and not enough progress — too much narrow ideology and not enough practical problem-solving,” Bayh will say. “Even at a time of enormous challenge, the peoples’ business is not being done.” He specifically cited the recent vote that killed the creation of a debt commission as evidence of the partisan gridlock.

Sure. The Democrat caucuses have a big majority in the House and had 60 votes in the Senate.  Clearly, the opposition party is to blame for opposing.  Or is he suggesting his own party’s agenda is being driven by a narrow ideology? Hmmm…

If gridlock had been his real concern, he might have notified Harry Reid before today.  As lefty hack Steve Benen notes:

To hear Evan Bayh tell it, Republicans have made it impossible for Congress to work on issues important to him … so he’s decided to make it easier for the Republican caucus to have more power.

The WaPo also notes that Bayh left his party in the lurch:

Without Bayh, Democrats may look to their congressional delegation where Reps. Baron Hill, Brad Ellsworth and Joe Donnelly are likely to take a look at running.

Because signatures to qualify for the ballot are due tomorrow, no Democrat will formally file — leaving the seat vacant and allowing the state party apparatus to choose the candidate.

That is, unless Tamyra d’Ippolito collects enough signatures.  She seems to think the party apparatchiks will work to keep her off the ballot to select their own candidate.  That will not look good in an anti-politics-as-usual environment.

Absent an unknown scandal (and I don’t count his residency kerfuffle as big enough), this sudden, last-minute exit is either a remarkable case of cold feet or Bayh’s way of extending a finger to Pres. Obama and the other leaders of his party.

The WaPo’s Chris Cillizza still sees the GOP winning the Senate as a long shot.  Dem pollster Tom Jensen sounds nervous.

–Karl

76 Responses to “Sen. Evan Bayh leaving the Senate”

  1. Having grown up in Indiana and spent my spare time during my teenage years writing fruitless letters to Birch Baye, the Senator’s father, this is the second best news I could hear.

    The joy is somewhat dimmed by the fact that Baye gets to retire gracefully, instead of being tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail.

    Gesundheit (cfa313)

  2. Some handicappers, like Cook, have Indiana at “leans Republican.” If you look at the ever-changing lineup at the Wikipedia 2010 Senate page, you see that some of the political handicappers have THIRTEEN Dem Senate seats in play, with 3-4 probable turnovers and 6-7 tossups.

    Kevin Murphy (805c5b)

  3. By the way, it was 12 yesterday, but now some folks have moved Washington’s Patty Murray into the vulnerable column.

    Kevin Murphy (805c5b)

  4. Before Evan Bayh’s departure, the Crystal Ball (self-link but you can surf from there (I’m too lazy to directly link)) said 7 seat Republican gain in the Senate with Bayh’s seat remaining Democrat. This would likely make the Crystal Ball rethink, moving it at least +8.

    Six months ago, someone suggesting a possible Republican Senate majority after November 2010 could’ve well been deemed insane. Today, not so much.

    John Hitchcock (ee53ff)

  5. Maybe some of y’all could convince JD to throw his hat into the ring 🙂

    voiceofreason2 (d68de9)

  6. Yeah, uh, Karl, he’s a tool and good riddance to him. I’d rather have a GOP Senator I know I can’t trust, than a faux GOP Senator whose stab in the back was a surprise.

    Oh, and if your second paragraph was any more disingenuous, you’d get a show on Clear Channel. It’s just wild that the GOP “opposes” things….you know, like their own healthcare proposals from 1993 or a deficit reduction panel that was their idea (and seven co-sponsors voted AGAINST, because the President supported it). There’s oppose and there’s the Party of No. Good to know where you stand on governance.

    Strange, always saw more a conservative technocrat in you and less partisan hack…but, hey, bully for you and bully for me and bully for Evan (since he will make far more money outside the Senate pimping for Wellpoint than he did inside the Senate). Everybody’s happy!

    timb (449046)

  7. Does anyone live in Indiana? TAMYRA NEEDS sIGNATURES BY TOMORROW! Here is Tamyra’s [object].

    [note: fished from spam filter. –Stashiu]

    wt (52a9ee)

  8. Does anyone live in Indiana? Tamyra needs petition signatures BY TOMORROW. Here is her [object]. If she gets on the ballot she’ll be the only Dem.

    [note: fished from spam filter. –Stashiu]

    wt (52a9ee)

  9. Senator Barbara Mikulski of Maryland also to retire.

    Reported as rumor. Take with grain of salt. And in any event, likely related to health not politics.

    Kevin Murphy (805c5b)

  10. I’d rather have a GOP Senator I know I can’t trust, than a faux GOP Senator whose stab in the back was a surprise.

    Only someone from timb’s left – of – Mao dogma would call a Senator who voted for Porkulbus as well as the healthcare bill someone he “can’t trust.” Yo timb, check out the latest Rasmussen poll on the IN Senate race, Bayh’s at least smart enough to know not to go down with a sinking ship.

    Oh, I forgot – now Rasmussen’s a far – right hacky polling operation.

    Dmac (799abd)

  11. Someone sure is all hatey today.

    Dmac – Bayh carefully cultivated this image of being a conservative or moderate Dem. However, he was a reliable Dem vote, and rarely bucked the party line.

    JD (12ebb1)

  12. I am so shamed by timb!

    Dude, guy wakes up the day before signatures are due and decides that the “gridlock” has been too much for him, despite the party’s supermajorities. Even Benen ain’t buying that.

    I thought you we a much higher-grade troll, timmah. So. Disappointed.

    Karl (bfd329)

  13. Karl, timb is disappointed to learn that you are the kind of partisan hack that he is.

    That will teach you!

    (j/k)

    SPQR (26be8b)

  14. With all the special elections, there are 38 Senate seats up for election, with an even 19-19 split. If Republicans actually pick up 8 seats, leaving them in a baare minority, how will that affect the remaining Democrats?

    The 2012 elections will have 21 Democrats, 1 Socialist (Sanders), 1 Independent (Lieberman) and only 10 Republicans up for re-election. (The Kennedy seat on that chart is now Republican.) If Republicans pick up 8 seats in an even off-year race and the Democrats don’t part ways with the far-left socialist Obama agenda, how many seats will they lose (along with the presidency) in 2012?

    Is it possible that the Republicans could get a filibuster-proof majority in 2012 along with the presidency and have the same R-D ratio then that we have in reverse (D-R ratio) now, due to the extreme left agenda we are seeing now?

    (I can only dream of an Amendment-level majority.)

    John Hitchcock (ee53ff)

  15. Vor2 – no chance. None. Maybe timmah will ru, since his views reflect the majority of Americans.

    JD (12ebb1)

  16. JD,

    Shucks!

    voiceofreason2 (d68de9)

  17. Run TIMB RUN! Maybe an electoral shellacking will shock you into reality.

    PCD (1d8b6d)

  18. Don’t encourage him, we are already overrun with fools in politics.

    AD - RtR/OS! (89e14c)

  19. But timb is such a doofus, the only votes he’ll get are his psychotic friends’ votes.

    PCD (1d8b6d)

  20. […] more here: Sen. Evan Bayh leaving the Senate […]

    Sen. Evan Bayh leaving the Senate | Liberal Whoppers (d16888)

  21. Bayh’s best line:

    “I love working for the people of Indiana,” he said. “But I do not love Congress.”

    DRJ (6a8003)

  22. Timb’s Psychotic Friends Network? All two of them?

    John Hitchcock (5aa510)

  23. Gesundheit: Having grown up in Indiana, one would think you might know how to spell the family’s name: “Bayh.” Maybe your letters to “Birch Baye” went to someone else.

    In any case, Evan Bayh was headed for re-election, not a tarring and feathering. He was one of the few Dems in red states who was sitting pretty. Coats is way past his sell-by date and had been cast as a lobbyist/carpetbagger, who’d rather be in North Carolina. (And I can’t blame him. NC is my state.)

    The other main Republican had raised about $160,000 (vs Bayh’s $13 million.) Bayh was doing well in match-up polls.

    There is something else going on here. Bayh is on TV too much to be as truly frustrated with Congress as he claims.

    One possibility is a live boy/dead girl-type situation.

    But there’s another possibility. When one considers that Bayh — contrary to JD’s assertions — has voted against Obama more than any other Democrat, especially on economic issues, it is not hard to imagine that the senator is planning a primary challenge to the president in 2012.

    Myron (6a93dd)

  24. Am I the only one that’s noticed that timb has the same MO every time he posts here lately – he craps his pants, doesn’t stick around to defend his skid marks, yet comes back about a week later. Wash, rinse, repeat. Quite the feces – throwing monkey, our timb is.

    Dmac (799abd)

  25. “I love working for the people of Indiana,” he said. “But I do not love Congress.”

    DRJ: Nice line, except it’s garbage. Congress didn’t just get like this, and Bayh is not a first-termer.

    Myron (6a93dd)

  26. Maybe your letters to “Birch Baye” went to someone else.

    HA! Myron found a spelling error, that’s hilarious! You’ve been totally pwned!

    has voted against Obama more than any other Democrat, especially on economic issues

    Except for that Porkulbus thing and the healthcare thing – but yeah, spot – on with that trenchant analysis.

    He was one of the few Dems in red states who was sitting pretty.

    Kind of like Coakley was – oh, I’m sorry, please continue the fascinating lecture.

    One possibility is a live boy/dead girl-type situation.

    Can we susbscribe to your newsletter? Perhaps you can team up with timb on it.

    Dmac (799abd)

  27. Michael Barone’s replacement!

    AD - RtR/OS! (89e14c)

  28. Dmac: That wasn’t a spelling error. That was not knowing how to spell the name. That’s different. That was someone claiming to be from somewhere not knowing how to spell the name of a well-known figure from that place, and then dissing that figure with extreme snark, and looking silly.

    Check this out, from FoxNews, a source you might believe:

    Most particularly, he has sounded an ever-increasing alarm about rising federal deficits, aligning with more conservative members of the chamber, for instance, to create a debt commission modeled on the military’s base closure system. Bayh worked behind closed doors for hours with his colleagues trying to craft the legislation, only to have the rug ripped out by Republicans who once supported the idea but then abandoned ship at the last minute. (GOP’ers said at the time that they did so fearing that the commission would propose tax hikes and not much-needed spending cuts.)

    Bayh has consistently spoken against Washington’s ability to voluntarily cut spending, so he increasingly favored mandating that action.

    The signs of Bayh’s discontent with the direction of the economy and with Washington can be seen in his votes over the past year or so, starting with the budget last year — he was one of only two Dems to vote AGAINST it. In fact, according to a Washington Post analysis of Senate Democrats’ voting records late last year, Bayh was the most conservative Democrat, edging out a more high-profile conservative, Sen. Ben Nelson, D-NE. Bayh voted with his fellow Democrats, according to the survey, just 72 percent of the time.

    No, not like Coakley at all. But if you can’t understand that different people run different campaigns in different locales, I’m not going to waste my valuable time trying to teach you/train you/coach you.

    You last comment, I don’t even know what you’re talking about — or care.

    Myron (6a93dd)

  29. Huge opportunity for the Republicans.

    Ryan: Indisputably.

    [That was spam and deleted. Pyramid scheme from the looks of it. –Stashiu]

    Myron (6a93dd)

  30. Myron must be relying on the dKos poll for his claim that Bayh was a shoo-in for re-election. Rasmussen had him at +3. I’m betting Bayh’s internal polling had him closer to the latter than the former. (And the dKos poll had Bayh had him in the low fifties — hardly a commanding position for a well-known incumbent.)

    Karl (bfd329)

  31. “But there’s another possibility. When one considers that Bayh — contrary to JD’s assertions — has voted against Obama more than any other Democrat, especially on economic issues, it is not hard to imagine that the senator is planning a primary challenge to the president in 2012.”

    Pretty much my thoughts, as well Myron.

    Or that he is going to jump the Democratic ticket to the Republican ticket. Just what we need, another Rino in the house.

    My thoughts

    JW (067e77)

  32. Karl: Looking at generic polls means little.

    Bayh would have fun against individual people. Against Stutzman, he was up 12, according to Rasmussen. He is up by 20 against Coats and 16 against a third Republican, according to Research 2000. That firm is contracted by Kos for nonpartisan polling.

    If you have evidence that their polls are biased, please link to it.

    Myron (6a93dd)

  33. Or that he is going to jump the Democratic ticket to the Republican ticket.

    JW: I consider that a possibility, too. I can see why you wouldn’t want that. He will definitely be a RINO.

    I wouldn’t be upset to see him go. But I also see value in Obama feeling like he will see some legitimate primary challenges. Anything to sharpen this administration and get them back on some kind of game.

    Myron (6a93dd)

  34. “Senator Barbara Mikulski of Maryland also to retire”

    Which bridge did she choose to live under? Does anyone know?

    GeneralMalaise (4d34a1)

  35. Have never heard Coates referred to as a carpetbagger, Myron. 75% is a reliable free throw percentage, and it is a reliable Dem vote. As for his comfortable re-election, the numbers do not support that. Bayh was an early, and strong, Clinton supporter, and I wonder if that played any role in this.

    JD (1cc534)

  36. Contacted by DailyKos for non-partisan polling – Thanks, that made me laugh.

    JD (1cc534)

  37. That wasn’t a spelling error. That was not knowing how to spell the name. That’s different.

    Another distinction without a difference, but that’s par for the course with your ilk.

    I don’t even know what you’re talking about

    As with so many other subjects.

    I’m not going to waste my valuable time

    Awesome – so make sure not to let the door hit you on the way out.

    If you have evidence that their polls are biased, please link to it.

    Also par for the course – Karl’s not your goddamn monkey, you come onto this blog routinely and make baseless claims that you never back up. Do your own work for once in your life, rather than expectorating wildly.

    [That was spam and deleted. Pyramid scheme from the looks of it. –Stashiu]

    Myron’s spamming the blog now? Say it ain’t so!

    Dmac (799abd)

  38. Contacted by DailyKos for non-partisan polling – Thanks, that made me laugh.

    Prove it! Prove it! Prove it!

    Comment by Myron

    Dmac (799abd)

  39. “…That firm is contracted by Kos for nonpartisan polling…”

    As opposed to their ususal partisan polling?
    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

    AD - RtR/OS! (89e14c)

  40. As for his comfortable re-election, the numbers do not support that.

    JD: What numbers are you talking about? I posted mine.

    Myron (6a93dd)

  41. JD: Also, if you have evidence that Research 2000 is guilty of biased polling, please post. I issued the same challenge to Karl. I think if you slight a firm’s reputation, there should be some evidence.

    You do acknowledge that a partisan outfit can hire nonpartisan labor as needed?

    Myron (6a93dd)

  42. Rasmussen, couple with the recent elections in NJ, VA & MA.

    JD (5acd54)

  43. Dmac: I didn’t spam anything. The comment I was referring to was spam.

    And you seem to think people are out of line b/c they want other people to back up their slights with facts.

    I’m still waiting for someone to link to something showing Research 2000 conducts biased polling. All the “smart” comments and attempts at insults can’t draw atention away from that failing.

    Anyone can claim anything on a blog, right? Where are the facts?

    Myron (6a93dd)

  44. You are worried about me slighting their reputation when you speculated that there could be a live boy/dead girl scenario for Sen Bayh? That is rich, Myron.

    JD (5acd54)

  45. Evan Bayh was running for re-election and would likely have won. However, he asked Obama an inconvenient question on TV and this abrupt decision comes as a result of the Democrat leadership’s over reaction to his public violation of the appearance of party unity.

    Harry Reid and his band of Whips came down on Evan Bayh so harshly, Bayh realized he could no longer retain his independence and integrity if he allowed himself to be intimidated and silenced by party thugs.

    Consequently, Evan Bayh decided his first priority was to save himself, so he told Obama’s Senate bully-boys to go to hell. Bayh now has time and incentive to consider a challenge to Obama in 2012.

    ropelight (517150)

  46. The Rasmussen poll is generic. Of course, the GOP is doing better on a generic poll. (And even in that one, Bayh is leading).

    In polling against the 3 actual announced individuals who are challenging Bayh, he is leading by 12, 16 and 20.

    As for NJ,VA and MA, Bayh is not running in those states. You’re starting to sound a little like the bubbleheads on TV. Simplistic analysis might be necessary for soundbites, but on these blogs we have a little more space.

    And NO, I’m not calling you a bubblehead.

    Myron (6a93dd)

  47. What is wrong with Rasmussen’s polling, Myron? I mean other than being right more often than most others.

    JD (5acd54)

  48. Actually, Myron, you’re right. It wasn’t a spelling error. It was not having lived in Indiana for 30 years and not giving a damn about spelling the name of a career politician who never paid an ounce of attention to people who didn’t have money in their hands.

    My letters got there alright. But Birch BAYH was a very early adopter of the form letter reply, long before the email days. I once tried replying to his “answer” only to get the exact same form letter back… twice! Ah, whatever.

    Suffice to say, for all Evan’s posturing, I don’t think either of them had the popular touch. Like their master Obama, they simulate liking real people.

    Gesundheit (6acc51)

  49. “That is rich, Myron”

    Though usually unintended, Myron is a source of much comedy gold.

    GeneralMalaise (4d34a1)

  50. And no, your predictable hyper-partisan hackery is not surprising. And no, I am not calling you ahyper-partisan hack.

    JD (5acd54)

  51. Nothing. Not a thing. I am not the one criticizing the pollster with no evidence.

    Myron (6a93dd)

  52. Gesundheit: Fair enough.

    Myron (6a93dd)

  53. JD: Insults instead of evidence showing Research 2000’s bias. What a surprise. You’re beaten on the point.

    Myron (6a93dd)

  54. Looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck….

    AD - RtR/OS! (89e14c)

  55. Here’s the relevant research that Myron’s too lazy (or ignorant) to do himself:

    http://www.theatlanticwire.com/opinions/view/opinion/Skeptics-Sniff-at-Daily-Kos-Poll-2428

    Even the leftists think – tanks and pollsters are laughing at the Kos poll, Myron. D’oh! But I guess The Atlantic’s now a right – wing hate machine, right?

    Here’s the immortal Kos’s past polling record, this one put Coakley’s race as a toss – up the night before the election (no partisanship or bias there, obviously):

    http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/1/17/MA/429

    More past hilarity from Myron’s super – objective polling nutbags:

    http://blogs.forward.com/campaign-confidential/14327/

    That one had Kirk losing before his last election. Right again!

    I can do this all night – like shooting fish in a barrel.

    Dmac (799abd)

  56. I did not insult them, or you. Even if you were to wrongly construe what I said as an insult, which only a bubblehead would do, it pales in the speculation you made about Sen Bayh, a Dem that I have met and like.

    JD (5acd54)

  57. I must be the bubblehead because I see a correlation between Bayh and NJ, MA, and VA.

    DRJ (6a8003)

  58. Pales in comparison to your rank asspull about the live boy/dead girl speculation …

    JD (5acd54)

  59. See, Myron? You learned something today.

    GeneralMalaise (4d34a1)

  60. “Senator Barbara Mikulski of Maryland also to retire”

    Which bridge did she choose to live under?

    The San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.

    Official Internet Data Office (99772e)

  61. You’re starting to sound a little like the bubbleheads on TV.

    But it’s not like he’s calling you a bubblehead, you understand. Just like the spelling thing earlier, Myron knows the difference in intent – just ask him.

    Pales in comparison to your rank asspull about the live boy/dead girl speculation …

    But Myron always backs up his wild – ass speculations with facts.

    What a surprise. You’re beaten on the point
    .

    And you’ve just been defrocked and disembowled over your sooper – objective “research outfit,” who came up with exactly the right results that their nutbag paymaster desired.

    Either refute the above research regarding the lefty pollster’s severe doubts about your boy’s polling idiocy, or admit you’re just trolling along here…again.

    Dmac (799abd)

  62. Oh noes, now the evil Rethuglican Rasmussen is showing Babs Boxer’s in sewious twubble:

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/02/barbara-boxer-carly-fiorina-chuck-devore.html

    And as has been documented here so voluminously over the years, the LAT is nothing more than a Rovian mind – meld of Crazy Right Wingers. Right, Myron?

    Dmac (799abd)

  63. Ever notice how Myron always runs away when confronted with actual evidence? Funny, that.

    Dmac (799abd)

  64. I think that Hillary is considering challenging Obama in 2012. The only way to avoid this is to put her on the SCOTUS.
    Clinton-Bayh would be a tough one for the GOP to run against. Dumping Obama in the primaries would set up quite the momentum for a ticket like that.

    voiceofreason2 (d68de9)

  65. But there would be some significant damage done to the Democratic Party if that occurs, in which case I say “Pass the popcorn.”

    DRJ (6a8003)

  66. “Which bridge did she choose to live under?

    The San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.”

    Thanks for the tip!

    [note: fished from spam filter. –Stashiu]

    GeneralMalaise (4d34a1)

  67. It would cause a rift among the liberal base and most notably the members who are black. I could see blacks sitting it out but the liberal base would probably support Hillary at the end of the day.
    Whether the GOP or the Dems won in that scenario would be very much dependent on the GOP ticket.
    Only my opinion but if it is seen as tilting too much to the base the independents would probably tilt toward the Dems. If the GOP put up a ticket of say Pawlenty-Romney I think there would be a fair number of conservatives (or people who identify with the tea party) who may choose to sit out which would take the sting out of the Dems who sat out.
    Would be good theater for sure.

    voiceofreason2 (d68de9)

  68. The Democrats last failed to renominate an incumbent President who wanted to run again for a second term. . . in 1868.

    Official Internet Data Office (99772e)

  69. #68
    Hillary lost the nomination in large part because she ceded the caucuses to Obama due to poor strategy. Many of her supporters took it badly but gritted their teeth and supported Obama. Hillary still has much of the ground support in place if she decides to go for it.
    If the economy is still in the toilet as far as unemployment goes she may have a shot.
    But I’m just one opinion – speculation is half the fun.

    voiceofreason2 (d68de9)

  70. Apart from taking on a sitting President from the same Party — a daunting hurdle — Hillary’s other problem is that she’s still a Democrat. Things will have to get a lot better for any Democratic nominee to succeed. That could happen but I don’t think it will, given President Obama’s decisions.

    DRJ (6a8003)

  71. Myron,

    As Dmac explains above, one does not have to think that the dKos/R2000 poll is biased. One only need observe its recent track record.

    Karl (bfd329)

  72. Mikulski to retire? Sounds too good to be true. If it is then that should clear the way for a really great man to win the “peoples seat” in Maryland. Eric Wargotz, M.D., a physician, commissioner, conservative and independently minded republican with a strong grounding in the constitution, will be an excellent US Senator!

    Stephen (9a29cb)

  73. OIDO at 69 – And that Democrat got into office as Abraham Lincoln’s VP – and helped whip their asses in the Civil War.

    Not the best way to endear yourself to your party base.

    Have Blue (854a6e)

  74. With Bayh’s retirement, the Crystal Ball moved the IN seat from “Likely Dem” to “Toss-Up”. They’re still calling for a GOP +7 with a clear shot at +8 and openly wonder if there will be any more bombshells.

    John Hitchcock (03b4ac)


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