Biden Plans to Impose $15 Minimum Wage on Hurting Businesses, Including Restaurants
Perhaps most egregious is a proposal to more than double the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour—including for employees who regularly receive additional tips, for which the current minimum wage is $2.13. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that even gradually raising the minimum wage to $15 by 2025 in a growing economy would likely kill 1.3 million jobs, and perhaps as many as 3.7 million. Imposing a drastic minimum wage increase on small businesses that are already struggling to stay afloat during a recession is especially absurd. Moreover, forcing restaurants, which are failing at record rates, to raise their own tipped minimum wage by 600 percent is economic malpractice. Perhaps high-cost cities like New York City and San Francisco can afford a much higher minimum wage, but other parts of America with lower incomes and prices will not be able to absorb this policy. It has no business in a relief package.
You want higher unemployment, this is how you get it.
Not a good start, especially when the economy has cratered.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 1/15/2021 @ 8:37 amYup.
I hope some of ya’lls faith in Manchin to deep-six that plan is rewarded. West VA definitely cannot afford that.
whembly (c30c83) — 1/15/2021 @ 8:58 amI don’t expect that it will end up that straightforward when it comes to tipped restaurant workers. The IRS already taxes their tips and attributes a minimum taxable income for them, whether they report the tips or not. I don’t know what the attributed amount is, but most of them make much more than $15 an hour.
nk (1d9030) — 1/15/2021 @ 9:17 amAs a stable genius who was treated very, very unfairly by everyone would say: “We’ll see what happens.”
I don’t think an increase to the minimum wage would qualify for the reconciliation exception to filibuster.
I’ll be surprised if it passes as initially proposed. Realistically, it’s a sop to the liberal wing that will be negotiated away in the end.
Dave (1bb933) — 1/15/2021 @ 9:21 amWhere Minimum Wage Employees Work
Among major occupational groups, the highest percentage of hourly paid workers earning at or below the federal minimum wage was in service occupations, at about 7 percent. Two-thirds of workers earning the minimum wage or less in 2016 were employed in service occupations, mostly in food preparation and serving related jobs.
The restaurant and food service industry is the biggest employer of low wage and minimum wage workers. The Pew Research Center found that about 18% of these workers, or 3.75 million people, work in that industry. Of these, about 2.5 million aged 30 or younger work in restaurants and many are tipped. This means their actual, or gross, pay may be closer to $10 an hour.
The next four industries that employ the majority of minimum or near-minimum wage workers are:
•Grocery stores
•Department and discount stores
•Construction
•Elementary and secondary schools
Almost 25 percent of the total number of hourly minimum or near-minimum wage workers are employed in these occupations:
•Cashiers
•Retail salespeople
•Cooks
•Waiters and waitresses (servers)
•Janitors and building cleaners
– source, https://blog.accuchex.com/minimum-wage-workers-statistics
DCSCA (f4c5e5) — 1/15/2021 @ 9:31 amMoreover, comrades, I would expect this brilliant commentariat to already know that what the government gives with one hand it takes with the other. You may see it as misplaced altruism, I see it as increasing the tax base while keeping the same rate of taxation. More FUTA, more FICA, more payroll taxes, more unemployment contributions, etc., without “raising taxes”. Shrewd fiscally and shrewd politically.
nk (1d9030) — 1/15/2021 @ 9:33 amrE: Biden Plans to Impose $15 Minimum Wage…
I didn’t mention that one in my comment number 135 at 310 am Patterico (Pacific) Time in the Flight 93 impeachment thread. He said Florida had done it (mandated a $15 minimum wage) so everybody could.
It’s the usual not thinking through the consequences.
What’s lost here s that this creates difficulty in finding a job (makes it too important and reduces turnover for every job) and that nobody takes a job that doesn’t pay enough to get along. It is like not being offered a job at all in that case. It gets taken by people to whom this is secondary income. (now some people do get stuck in such jobs and take several of them)
And you could do things to increase pressure for higher wages, like mandating a higher wage for anyoone paid less frequently than once a week, (pay only once every two weeks or less = higher wage or minimum salary) or allow a certain small percentage of employees to be paid less or impose a penalty for delayed payment of wages.
Progressives have no problem (often) with a wage of $0 an hour or even with negative wages (it is called education\ or training.)
Sammy Finkelman (dcc9ca) — 1/15/2021 @ 9:45 amThe $15 minimum was determined by meticulous study followiing the standard formula – 1) Measure with micrometer 2) Mark wwith chalk 3) Cut with axe.
John B Boddie (d795fd) — 1/15/2021 @ 9:48 amIndeed if unemployment is extended, the federal government makes a habit of sending out big checks, and we’re mad enough at the rich, a lot of folks without jobs might seem tempting to democrats. That dependency will get them to the polls, supposedly.
However, Trump fans raiding the capitol probably need the dignity of a job, and they have too much free time. And Republicans don’t stand for anything, so they will just compete to give more cash to folks too.
Biden has an opportunity to cut through this and get America back to work, but instead it’s the same agenda tacked onto the latest problems.
Dustin (4237e0) — 1/15/2021 @ 9:56 amWhy do they hate the restaurant industry so much?
“When we finally let you reopen after providing near zero evidence outdoor dining spreads COVID, we are going to raise your payroll costs by a third”
In CA restaurants were closed the day before Thanksgiving. Our spike in cases was around January 10th with outdoor dining spread at zero due to the lockdown. The argument of the state seems to be that we can imagine how much worse it would have been if people were allowed to eat outdoors with 6 foot spacing; how much worse it would be if stand up paddlers were allowed to use the ocean, or tennis players were allowed to play, golfers to golf.
When it comes to distribution of vaccines, CA is behind every state except Alabama.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
My great Aunt passed last week a few days before her 108th birthday. She tested positive for COVID and she was in a facility that was locked down to visitors. The fever from the virus simply wore her down. She didn’t suffer horribly. She died from old age with COVID complications. 10 years ago she’d probably been able to fight it off.
steveg (43b7a5) — 1/15/2021 @ 10:11 am15 dollars across the board seems like a lot, especially in less prosperous states. I wouldn’t mind them eliminating the special carve out for restaurants, though. I’m not fond of special carve outs for this or that well lobbied industry, I think it messes with the competitive environment. Also, having a stable knowable income can help with housing and other credit related things and, in states where the servers do get regular minimum wage, workers report experiencing less harassment and they feel they don’t need to tolerate as much harassment because they know they can make rent without the tip from table 7 who keeps demanding their take their mask off and show how attractive they are or are not, or from table 10 with the drunk, butt pinching businessperson.
Nic (896fdf) — 1/15/2021 @ 10:34 amI’ve yet to see convincing evidence that raising the minimum wage, at least to the levels proposed, actually results in a significant loss of jobs. Perhaps somebody can point me to it.
And there is the other side, evidence that raising the minimum wage relieves some of the burden on the government regarding money it must otherwise spend for poor people:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/how-low-minimum-wage-helps-rich-companies/617671/
Victor (4959fb) — 1/15/2021 @ 10:49 amDon’t worry, on or about January 21st, you’ll see most blue cities and states start to lift COVID restrictions and restaurants and hurting businesses will be back in action, just in time for higher wages.
Remember – they are going to open up because Biden has licked COVID. It will have nothing to do with political theater.
Hoi Polloi (093fb9) — 1/15/2021 @ 10:59 am13. Hoi Polloi (093fb9) — 1/15/2021 @ 10:59 am
No, they want to open because they say it unsustainable. NY Gov Andrew Cuomo specifically says we have not licked Covid, but this has to be done before or else there will be nothing left to re-open.
https://twitter.com/nygovcuomo/status/1348673192609591296
#SOTS2021
Sammy Finkelman (dcc9ca) — 1/15/2021 @ 11:29 amVictor (4959fb) — 1/15/2021 @ 10:49 am
It doesn;t cause a loss of employment of people currently in the labor market. It merely forces them to talk more economically productive jobs and increases job search cost and time. But I think it does lead to a reduction in the number of people working.
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Mjw5Gqslc10J:www.epionline.org/study/r32/+&cd=12&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
A higher minimum wage knocks the bottom rungs out of the employment ladder. It is not necessary.
Sammy Finkelman (dcc9ca) — 1/15/2021 @ 11:37 amsteveg (43b7a5) — 1/15/2021 @ 10:11 am
She could have fought it off today if she’d been given antibodies early.
Sammy Finkelman (dcc9ca) — 1/15/2021 @ 11:39 amWait, private companies can be told what to do with their private property? They can be forced to pay employees a minimum amount?
You may not want to mention that in the other thread.
frosty (f27e97) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:07 pmFunny Cuomo is just realizing this when Biden is about to be inaugurated.
Hoi Polloi (093fb9) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:13 pm#17
steveg (43b7a5) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:32 pmCA is a mess.
The DMV could do a better job at vaccine roll out.
The rollout has too many layers of complexity.
Tier 1A
Tier 1B
Tier 1C
All the way through Tier 3.
Lots of Califonians fell into the “Trump Vaccine” skepticism based on Democrat political lies and around 50% of first responders are refusing to be vaccinated.
Woke Public Health persons are worried about stigmatizing poorer racial and ethnic groups living in high density housing enclaves. These are the LA hotspots, and common sense says roll into there, set up mobile sites and hit those areas hard and stop the spread… “but that’s racist and profiling and stigmatizing…we stand with the Latinx… (sobbing)” the answer is the Latinx (pronounced lah- tinx… tinx as in “lynx” or “minx”) are dying, but I guess the woke would rather have the poor and susceptible dead than god forbid stigmatized
Hoi Polloi (093fb9) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:13 pm
It’s also important to criticize people who realized this sooner as just playing politics.
frosty (f27e97) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:33 pmsteveg (43b7a5) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:32 pm
There are reasonable questions about the long-term effects of the vaccine. I’m not sure it’s a good idea to give 100% of the first responders a vaccine that may impact a significant percentage down the road. I’d actually like to see a better hedging strategy.
frosty (f27e97) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:36 pmThere’s lots of upsides to this:
Order kiosks make fewer mistakes.
Kiosks can’t get Covid.
Kiosks are never late for work.
Fully amortized, kiosks are cheaper per hour.
Kiosks are an upfront write-off.
Of course, that means more people on the dole. Might lead to a populist revolt some day.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:44 pmI hope some of ya’lls faith in Manchin to deep-six that plan is rewarded. West VA definitely cannot afford that.
Assuming the GOP can wash the slime off soon, Manchin would make a wonderful addition to the GOP.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:46 pmI hope some of ya’lls faith in Manchin to deep-six that plan is rewarded.
Looking forward to watching Senators Osoff and Warnock stick it to rural Georgia by voting to raise the minimum wage.
JVW (ee64e4) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:46 pmDear $10/hour workers:
What would you care to bet that you’ll be the ones getting that $15/hr? Think: musical chairs.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:48 pmAssuming the GOP can wash the slime off soon, Manchin would make a wonderful addition to the GOP.
It seems to me that this ship has long since sailed. If I were Manchin, I would become an independent, continue to caucus with Democrats but threaten to switch over to GOP if the Dems drift too hard left. He would hold a great deal of leverage, provided that he could still raise money as an independent. Let him play Schumer and McConnell against one another and become the de facto King of the Senate.
JVW (ee64e4) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:48 pm@12
.
Might wanna check out the recent CBO study on this:
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-07/CBO-55410-MinimumWage2019.pdf
The problem is trying to mandate this federally across the board. Cities/States ought to set the min wage based on local attributes.
According to the study, a national $15 minimum wage would eliminate 1.3 million jobs. All the while, it would raise consumer prices and lower incomes.
whembly (c30c83) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:55 pmIn some places where it’s expensive to live a higher minimum wage makes sense, assuming you expect people to come work for you. But it is utterly MORONIC to think that the same minimum wage in Ohio as in California makes sense.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:56 pmThis is NOT interstate commerce. This should be left to the states.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:57 pmWouldn’t it be fun it the Supreme Court ruled federal wage and labor laws to be unconstitutional outside of direct interstate commerce (e.g. trucking).
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:58 pmThe $15 minimum was determined by meticulous study followiing the standard formula – 1) Measure with micrometer 2) Mark wwith chalk 3) Cut with axe.
I’ve long joked with my progressive friends at how when the promoters of social justice supposedly undertook a scientific determination of the wage that is demanded by the needed for two wage-earners to support a family, it magically turned out to be precisely $15, not $13.87 or $14.48 or something less perfectly rounded. Sort of makes you wonder if the number isn’t just plucked from the air, doesn’t it?
JVW (ee64e4) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:59 pmLooking forward to watching Senators Osoff and Warnock stick it to rural Georgia by voting to raise the minimum wage.
Warnock will get a carve out for black-owned businesses.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:00 pmI’ve yet to see convincing evidence that raising the minimum wage, at least to the levels proposed, actually results in a significant loss of jobs. Perhaps somebody can point me to it.
It leads to significant (even total) “loss of jobs” for people whose work is not worth $15, such as entry-level workers.
Also, ever wonder why so many low-paying jobs (e.g. parking lot attendant) have been replaced by machines? Also, bank tellers, supermarket clerks, fast food counter people, etc. Anything regular you can define to a machine can be automated.
Also, look at what the UAW did to their own companies and jobs.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:06 pmKevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 12:58 pm
So, I hear you been growing wheat to feed animals on your farm? Why are you interfering with interstate commerce bro?
Yes, it would be very fun. Thomas has had some very good dissenting opinions on this over the years.
frosty (f27e97) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:07 pmBut I’m curious, Victor. Please give me a reason why a national minimum wage makes sense to you. Then point me to the provision in the Constitution that gives Congress that general power, and explain why the states cannot do it? Do they hate their people more?
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:09 pmKevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:06 pm
Let’s not forget who else gets a pay raise based on the minimum wage.
frosty (f27e97) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:10 pmSo, I hear you been growing wheat to feed animals on your farm?
The court has changed, or so I’ve heard. I would love to see Lochner cited in some future ruling.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:10 pmLet’s not forget who else gets a pay raise based on the minimum wage.
Dunno, but I’m gonna guess it isn’t jurors.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:11 pm@19
That’s unfortunate as the COVID vaccines are different than traditional vaccines. They use a novel technique that this twitter dude below goes into details.
You can find him at @WheatNOil who does have the credentials to give it to us laymans. I’ve edit some of his tweets and profanities so that I can post here… 😉
whembly (c30c83) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:15 pm@36
That’s why organized labor spends so much money advocating this and donates to Democrat candidates who’ll like push for this.
Their contracts stipulates that the Union members automatically get pay raises whenever the minimum wage is statutorily raised.
whembly (c30c83) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:18 pmAnything that ships out or uses stuff from other industries is involved in interstate commerce. Basically the only industry at the point that isn’t (officially) involved in interstate commerce at this point is the marijuana industry.
That being said, and while my personal belief is that part of the responsibility of government is to protect the regular citizen from predatory corporate/industrial practices, I think the minimum wage should be the minimum wage. Personally I’d set it at whatever 40xhourly=1.10singlepersonpovertylevel is and lock it to inflation because, again, my personal belief is that a person working full time should be able to support themselves at slightly above poverty level and this makes it more just math and less political. Then leave it to the states to decide if they want to just leave it at the federal level or have a higher state and/or local minimum wage, preferably based on local conditions. “I want to set it at x$ amount” makes it more political and leaves itself too open to one-upsmanship and purity testing.
Nic (896fdf) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:37 pmPopulism is a dirty word these days. Anyone who doesn’t agree with progressives is a racist troglodyte who participated in the riot at the Capitol.
Hoi Polloi (093fb9) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:54 pmThe marijuana industry is just like any other agricultural business at this point – they order implements, fertilizer, etc., a lot of which comes from other places.
Hoi Polloi (093fb9) — 1/15/2021 @ 1:56 pmI think raising the minimum wage makes sense because it lifts people out of poverty, as noted by the same 2019 CBO study cited before. With respect to that study, there were some who criticized it for being unduly pessimistic on job losses:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/08/us/politics/federal-minimum-wage.html
I note that $15/hr would replicate what the minimum wage was in 1973. It’s not like it’s completely without precedent.
As for Congressional power to set minimum wages, that boat sailed in the 30’s when the Supreme Court found it to be a power under the commerce clause. If your claim is that the Court should go back and return to pre New Deal jurisprudence, I suggest that you make sure that’s clearly part of your preferred political party’s program.
Some states set very low minimum wages because the legislatures of those states are politically insulated from the concerns of poor people. Personally I think that actually is a national issue.
Victor (4959fb) — 1/15/2021 @ 2:31 pmLooks like the prosecutors looking into the Capitol Riots pubically overstated things… saying something completly different in court filings:
whembly (c30c83) — 1/15/2021 @ 2:46 pmSome states set very low minimum wages because the legislatures of those states are politically insulated from the concerns of poor people.
Or maybe it truly is just cheaper to live in Wyoming, Mississippi, or South Dakota than it is to live in New York, California, or Illinois. You know that California is among the national leaders in the percentage of people living below the poverty line when adjusted for relative cost of living in each state, right? Yet California has been one of the national leaders in terms of wholly adopting the arguments in favor of higher minimum wages. Go figure.
JVW (ee64e4) — 1/15/2021 @ 2:50 pm@ Kevin, “The court has changed, or so I’ve heard. I would love to see Lochner cited in some future ruling.”
Certainly the “substantial affects” doctrine expanded federal regulatory power…but that train is out of the station….sort of like what is meant by “general welfare”….or “necessary and proper”. The Court would be flooded by interstate commerce claims and that would be all it ever did (it’s also pushing the idea of economic substantive due process which is dicey). There is certainly valid arguments about where the line should be drawn….I just think “here and no farther” is the best we are going to get.
AJ_Liberty (ec7f74) — 1/15/2021 @ 3:08 pmI can’t remember exactly when he posted it, but our esteemed host once wrote something along the lines of he would vote for Joe Biden and the Democrats, to get President Trump out of office, and then suffer through the [insert slang term for feces here] show that would follow.
Well, the [insert slang term for feces here] show is here! You guys pushed it, you guys advocated it, it’s here — or will be next Wednesday, anyway — so now it’s time to own it!
The Dana in Kentucky (facd7c) — 1/15/2021 @ 4:56 pmMr M wrote:
The Republicans tried to entice Senator Manchin to come over to the good side of the Force several times, but he has always declined, saying that he is a West Virginia Democrat. As it happens, he’s the only West Virginia Democrat elected statewide, but he was re-elected in 2018, by a significant margin, so he isn’t worried.
The Dana in Kentucky (facd7c) — 1/15/2021 @ 5:02 pmAnything that ships out or uses stuff from other industries is involved in interstate commerce. Basically the only industry at the point that isn’t (officially) involved in interstate commerce at this point is the marijuana industry.
Oddly, in Gonzales v. Raich, growing your own marijuana was found to be subject to federal regulation.
I can see how production of things can be tied to interstate commerce, but how much employees are paid seems somewhat detached. If you can regulate that, you can regulate the calorie content in, and selection of, lunches at the company commissary, down to the color of napkins.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 1/15/2021 @ 5:24 pmJVW wrote:
I’m not just The Dana in Kentucky, but I’m the Dana in Eastern Kentucky.
Back in 2017, CNN Money did several articles on Beattyville, which it labelled the poorest white town in America. Well, Beattyville is the county seat of Lee County, which is the county next to where I live. I see these places, and I know these people. I know people living in dilapidated shacks, and I know people working for minimum wage in diners, and struggling for not much more working in auto repair shops and landscaping businesses and convenience stores. These jobs don’t pay more because they can’t pay more. They can’t pay more because, if they did, they’d have to raise prices, and in 2018, Lee County had a median household income of $23,972.
57% of the population in Lee County is receiving some kind of government benefits.
With income that low, every last penny counts, and forcing mom-and-pop stores — other than some chain fast-food places, that’s all there is — to double what they pay their employees means that their customers will have to spend the same amount of money, but get less for it, because that’s all the money they have!
Of course, a big part of that problem is that so many are addicted to drugs. 🙁
In eastern Kentucky, people do what they have to do to survive. If you need something done, a fence built, firewood delivered, work done on your vehicle, the question to ask is, “Is there any discount for cash?” Yup, there frequently is, normally around 5%. Sales tax is 6% in the Bluegrass State, so not only do you get that 5% discount for cash, you save the 6% on sales tax, while the person with whom you are doing business has the opportunity to not report all of his income and have to pay taxes on it.
Not that I know that they are doing that, I just know that they could do that. (I could use an exaggerated wink emoji here.)
Actually, for something like firewood, and there are a lot of places out in the country which have only wood heat, a lot of firewood suppliers will only accept cash.
It’s just so easy for the urban coastal dwellers to tell us what’s good for the people in Flyover Country, because they have no f(ornicating) idea what life is actually like in Flyover Country.
The Dana in Kentucky (facd7c) — 1/15/2021 @ 5:46 pmThe South needs to get its Democratic Party back from California and New York needs to get its Republican Party back from Appalachia.
nk (1d9030) — 1/15/2021 @ 5:49 pmWell this is exactly what you voted for, so you don’t get to complain.
But at least he doesn’t send mean tweets!!!
NoMeanTweets (e5de3e) — 1/15/2021 @ 5:55 pmOur Windy City barrister wrote:
It ain’t just Appalachia. Kentucky was the last state in the South in which the Democrats held a single chamber in the state legislature, the state House of Representatives. That didn’t change until following the 2016 elections, when the state House went from 53 Democrats to 47 Republicans, to 64 Republicans and 36 Democrats in one election.
Going in to the 2020 elections, the GOP held 61 seats, the Dems 39, but another big shift occurred, and following those elections, the Republicans hold a 75-25 majority.
The state Senate is 30-8 Republican.
Actually, about 2/3 of the state is not in the Appalachians.
The Dana in Kentucky (facd7c) — 1/15/2021 @ 6:09 pmI meant it metaphorically. California too.
nk (1d9030) — 1/15/2021 @ 6:19 pmAnybody who thinks government should get involved in setting wages and prices doesn’t fully appreciate how well free markets and capitalism work.
Go to your local Home Depot, where illegal immigrant day laborers tend to congregate, and ask them to work for $5 an hour. They’ll wave you away. Why? Not because of a government-mandated minimum wage (after all, they are operating outside the law), but rather because the market has a natural floor below which business can’t and won’t get done.
Alas, there are so many people who have studied too much philosophy and not enough economics.
norcal (b4d7b1) — 1/15/2021 @ 10:19 pm@Dana in KY @48 Yes, Dana, if the choice is between higher federal minimum wage people and a group who attempted to destroy our entire election system, upon which the country was founded, because of one single man’s spoiled hissyfit, I’m going to choose minimum wage increase guy. It’s not even a hard choice.
Nic (896fdf) — 1/15/2021 @ 11:05 pmI second that choice, Nic, even though I am opposed to the minimum wage.
norcal (b4d7b1) — 1/15/2021 @ 11:11 pm