Patterico's Pontifications

3/13/2020

Sure, Cancel Everything: But for How Long?

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:58 am



So. Whatever you were hoping to do in the next couple of weeks or months has been canceled. Three or four days ago, some organizations and schools were shutting down, and some were not. My daughter’s school (it was UCSB but she transferred to Rice, where she is now) was sending out emails saying (this is a paraphrase) “we’re monitoring the situation but so far so good; we’re telling everyone wash your hands.” I was receiving emails from classical music organizations who have my email, saying (paraphrase) “the show will go on; wash your hands; don’t come sick.”

Then Tom Hanks was diagnosed, the stock market tumbled big, Trump tried to reassure the nation with his speech and did the opposite, and now everything is canceled.

As of yesterday, my daughter is coming home from Rice. My high school son is staying some for the next few weeks; his school has closed. All those classical music concerts are being canceled, including the ones from organizations that sent sanguine emails 3-4 days ago. Every sport you care about is canceled, or soon will be.

Purely as a matter of fighting this disease, this is a good approach — albeit likely weeks too late. (I’m no expert, but I listen to experts, and I do so without a partisan lens.) And fighting this disease is very important. If you haven’t heard the situation in Italy in detail, spend some time at this link reading and, if you have the time, listening to the recorded statements of the doctors there. (The recorded statements are Italian but there are translations and hearing their voices brings it home.) The problem is ventilators. People who get hit with the disease bad need them, but they have run out. One Milan hospital is turning away COVID-19 patients over the age of 60. As one of the doctors puts it: that is very young. Indeed it is. It’s essentially wartime triage, and many people who could easily be saved by a functioning health care system are going to die for lack of care.

Northern Italy has a fine health care system. If it can happen there, it can happen here. Italy took draconian steps but too late. We are starting to take those steps. It may be too late for us too. We’ll probably have a good idea in a month. Maybe much sooner.

So yeah, doing this stuff is necessary. But it comes with costs. As Thomas Sowell says: everything is a trade-off. And so it is with the measures we are taking.

My concern here is threefold: that people don’t realize how long we will be dealing with this virus; that the economic disruption will be harmful too, and already is; and that there will be and is a certain amount of panic.

So many people seem to think this is something we beat back over the next couple of weeks or maybe months, and then it’s back to business as usual. That’s not how it works. I have given these facts but I will give them again: experts are predicting no vaccine for 12-18 months. Reasonable and non-alarmist experts predict a very sizable chunk of the U.S. population — tens of millions of people is too conservative; we’re talking likely over 100 million — will contract the virus in the next year to 18 months, before any vaccine is available. Hundreds of thousands may die — in the United States alone. This is not fear-mongering. This is how it is. This is likely to be ten times worse than the worst flu season, and possibly worse than that. It’s bad, and it won’t be fixed in the next few weeks.

Isn’t China planning to loosen things up? Aren’t they dismantling hospitals? Yes, and experts expect a second outbreak there. Plus, they had a reaction to the virus that was far more proactive than we have here, and frankly is more proactive than any free society can manage or perhaps would want to.

Then there is the economic disruption. Again, I have said all this before — and had at least one commenter tell me to “Breathe in. Breathe out” as if my statements were the result of panic — but again, facts are facts. Air travel is going to suffer a hit probably twice that of 9/11. Hotels, restaurants, cruise lines, you name it — there will be massive bankruptcies and failures and massive government bailouts. The stock market will probably recover, sure — but it could take five years or more.

And then there is the panic. It’s hard to read the above and believe it and not feel a touch panicky, but the hallmarks of true panic are in the air. People who believed Trump when he said he had this contained have been blindsided by the (in my view fairly predictable) mass cancellations of the last couple of days. What happens in such situations? Rumors start. I have it on good authority, from multiple sources, based on their best friend’s brother in the FBI or cousin at CNN, that the CDC or Trump is about send the nation into a panic with a major announcement, or that Trump is going to announce a Chinese-style lockdown in a couple of days. My guess is many of you have heard the same types of things, which may explain the long lines at the Trader Joe’s in NYC and such. The folks passing along these rumors have a good heart and I’m not making fun of them — and of course how I know it’s all false? — but I strongly suspect that this is the kind of set of false rumors that circulates when panic is in the air and people worry that the government doesn’t quite have its shit together.

It goes without saying that Trump’s mismanagement of this crisis, while it may end up having little effect on the result, has been typically horrendous. I now take it for granted that he will be tossed out of office in a landslide for Biden, and that no longer seems like the important thing it seemed to be four weeks ago. Right now the key is to get through this thing.

Luckily I’m an expert on social distancing, so for me this will be a snap.

Keep your head. Don’t panic. Wash your hands.

135 Responses to “Sure, Cancel Everything: But for How Long?”

  1. I would tweet this, but then people would read the headline only (that’s what they do on Twitter) and then freak out by totally misapprehending the content of the post.

    So nah.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  2. I took an action that may — may, I say! — have fixed the comment issue. If it did, all credit goes to JVW for figuring it out. If it didn’t, it’s my fault.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  3. “I now take it for granted that he will be tossed out of office in a landslide for Biden, and that no longer seems like the important thing it seemed to be four weeks ago.”

    Yes, it was so very very important four or five weeks ago — to some. It’s good that everyone has their priorities in order now. Better late than never.

    That we can now discuss a viral contagion that could mutate and kill millions is proof that impeachment is over.
    Munroe (dd6b64) — 2/1/2020 @ 10:50 am

    What makes me think if Trump’s ouster wasn’t virtually guaranteed, the priorities would still be hopelessly skewed?

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  4. Congratulations for figuring it out, JVW!

    Make America Ordered Again (cbcfda)

  5. The testing issue is a bit misleading. Other countries have the same issue as the USA. As an example from todays news the automated testing Roche is getting approval for was initiated as soon as the Chinese released the genetic data for the new virus in January. Roche had started an emergency team before that. It takes time to do these kinds of things and they cannot be pushed much faster. There are also capacity limits on the kits that are used to strip the RNA in patients samples for use in Coronavirus tests.

    There is some typical bureaucratic clumsiness as usual, but things probably couldn’t have been pushed much faster. Governments both federal and state take time to respond. Trump is not the guy for this and seems incapable of becoming an Ike or Bush to inspire confidence which would help.

    DirtyJobsGuy (0d53bb)

  6. What makes me think if Trump’s ouster wasn’t virtually guaranteed, the priorities would still be hopelessly skewed?

    Munroe (dd6b64) — 3/13/2020 @ 8:16 am

    Don’t know what causes it but I hope you feel better soon.

    Time123 (f5cf77)

  7. It is really amazing that the choices for president from the two parties are both elderly men who show unmistakable signs of significant mental decline. I think there is a significant opportunity for a younger more competent candidate to emerge. Justin Amash pick up your phone!

    DirtyJobsGuy (0d53bb)

  8. . Whatever you were hoping to do in the next couple of weeks or months has been canceled.

    They’re giving time measures as optimistic as possible. Major League Baseball has only been postponed for two weeks; Broadway shows are only cancelled till April 13 (one month); Stephen Colbert and the other late night shows that tape in New York will not tape till March 31; lots of things are only (for now) till March 31.

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/heres-what-is-closed-in-nyc-over-coronavirus-pandemicg

    Some things have been cancelled altogether, mostly things that can’t be closed just two weeks to a month. longer. the NCAA basketball tournament (March Madness) and any sports schedule that normally ends by MAy.

    A friend of mine was receiving updates on his phone yesterday that said that this and that Jewish institution (in Bergen County mostly I think) was closing – one place divided its people into two groups, one in regular rooms and one in the gym.

    The City Council president and some infectious disease specialists wants to close the public schools, (it helped during the 1918 flu pandemic) but Mayor de Blasio is against that on grounds that it will interrupt education and cut poor children off from meals – various private (Catholic) and charter schools are going to close.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  9. Sam Stein
    @samstein
    I’m not the first person to make this observation but it truly is remarkable the degree to which local and state officials as well as private entities and businesses are making these massive public health policy decisions while the feds seem to be moving much more slowly.
    __ _

    ArmaliteAR-180
    @armalitear
    ·
    So weird, almost like the federal government was set up this way.
    _ _

    Josh Martin
    @joshmartin98
    ·
    Look up federalism
    __ _

    Stephen L. Miller
    @redsteeze
    ·
    “We should definitely turn the entire healthcare system over to the federal government” – Same people.
    __ _

    killroy
    @Killroynase
    ·
    TRUMP IS A DICTATOR. (3 years of screaming). WHY WILL TRUMP NOT BECOME EMPEROR (1 week of official pandemic)
    __ _

    Matthew D. Dempster
    @dempstermd
    ·
    Things would be much better if we had a strong centralized government like China.

    _

    harkin (b64479)

  10. The New York City coronovirus count remains at 95. But I think yesterday de Blasio was predicting there’d be 1,000 cases in a week.

    I have given these facts but I will give them again: experts are predicting no vaccine for 12-18 months. Reasonable and non-alarmist experts predict a very sizable chunk of the U.S. population — tens of millions of people is too conservative; we’re talking likely over 100 million — will contract the virus in the next year to 18 months, before any vaccine is available. Hundreds of thousands may die — in the United States alone. This is not fear-mongering. This is how it is.

    This is logic. Logic based on bad numbers. Garbage in, garbage out.

    The 1918 flu had a case fatality rate of 2.5 percent: 2,500 per 100,000. Of course they had no test for mild cases.

    Yesterday I posted someone’s estimate that coronovirus is 200 times more deadly than flu, with flu killing two out of a hundred thousand and coronovirus 400. I just don;t think it;s that way.

    I read that the idea of the closings is to stretch out the disease process so that it lasts 12 to 18 months, but Dr. Anthony Fauci is claiming this will be over in 6 to 8 weeks.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/487425-top-health-official-fauci-coronavirus-crisis-could-last-8-weeks

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the lead scientists behind the Trump administration’s coronavirus response, said Friday that disruptions to everyday life in the U.S. could last up to eight weeks.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-self-shutdownamericas-self-shutdown-11584052371

    Mr. Trump should assemble his specialists prominently to describe the realities and goals of all these voluntary closures. They ought to explain the math behind minimizing person-to-person transmission of the virus—the so-called reproduction number. Or why it’s important to suppress infectious spread before the onset of detectable symptoms. They should explain how mitigation will “flatten the curve” of the virus’s course by spreading it over 12 to 18 months, rather than letting it spike destructively across the population in two months.

    I suppose the difference is what you expect R0 to get down to. But even if it gets down to 0.75 it will take quite awhile to fade away if most people are not immune.

    And the lower it gets the harder it is for the average R0 to get lower still because some people give it to a lot of people, (the R0 figure is an average) either because of the way their body reacts to the virus or because of the way they live.

    So it won’t be over soon, but it won;t kill very many people.

    Trump tried to reassure the nation with his speech and did the opposite, and now everything is canceled.

    I don’t know if that was his idea (his idea may have been to show he was on the job and that the economy would be prevented from going into a recession) but of course it hurt expectations. His emergency measures did that.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  11. We shall soon see whether this is over-hype or not. Frequently washing one’s hands and not touching one’s face whenever possible are common sense good practices.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  12. What %of those infected are less than 50years of age? Rumors keep repeating, the young are not contracting the virus. These stats are out there, but I can’t even find the question being asked. Anecdotal stories speak of 1 newborn, and some younger than thirty. But anecdotal is not statistics.
    Comparing this to the 1918 flu, is fear mongering. Medicane today is nothing like 1918

    Iowan2 (bbb95d)

  13. Good post, plus I think you fixed the comments. A few commenters may still go to spam, approving them once may fix it.

    DRJ (15874d)

  14. My youngest son is a vendor for a snack foods company here in Texas in the Dallas area. He reports that he can’t keep up with demand in the stores he stocks. Who’ve thought that snack cakes and fruit pies were essential supplies?

    He reports that stores are as full of people as just before Thanksgiving.

    Interesting times…

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  15. I would tell a corona virus joke, but you probably won’t get it.

    Chuck Bartowski (bc1c71)

  16. The good news is comments seem to be posting automatically, although the website seems to be running a little slow. The better news is that the spam is going directly to spam. That may be why the website is sluggish, because there is still an enormous amount of spam so this Akismet problem might happen again.

    DRJ (15874d)

  17. I would tell a corona virus joke, but you probably won’t get it.

    Chuck Bartowski (bc1c71) — 3/13/2020 @ 10:02 am

    Ha! But I’m old so I probably will.

    DRJ (15874d)

  18. Webiste is running at regular speed for me. I think with the key now re-activated, the problem (hopefully) won’t reoccur. If it does, then Akismet will sure have some explainin’ to do.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  19. Great post. The “breathe in, breathe out” comment I made was not mocking, but a heart-felt response to a reaction that I thought we had in common. It was hard NOT to be panicky with all the bad information at hand. It was advice that I had given myself. This is SUCH a limited medium.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  20. I should have said the Dashboard is running slow for me, not the website.

    DRJ (15874d)

  21. The problem is ventilators. People who get hit with the disease bad need them, but they have run out. One Milan hospital is turning away COVID-19 patients over the age of 60. As one of the doctors puts it: that is very young. Indeed it is. It’s essentially wartime triage, and many people who could easily be saved by a functioning health care system are going to die for lack of care.

    This is true, except that I disagree that it has anything to do with whether the health system is functioning. Per capita we have more hospital beds (one in 355) than the National Health Service (1 in 400), but no one has the hospital beds they are going to need (1 in 50 at minimum). Nor is it reasonable to think we should.

    What we ARE going to need is hundreds of thousands of volunteers to provide basic nursing services to millions who are going to be on cots in high-school gymnasiums getting what care can be given (if only IV fluids and symptomatic drugs). I wonder how badly the System is going to discourage that.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  22. If your kid is in public school, summer vacation starts Saturday. NOBODY is going back to school this year. The real question I have is how many go back afterwards — we are at the technological point that remote instruction is eminently practical and there is a lot to be said for it in normal times.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  23. Our limited capacity is why testing is so important, Kevin. Testing will let us see where demand for healthcare is and predict where it will be needed, so we can try to move resources in time to where they are/will be needed or arrange to move patients to where there are resources.

    DRJ (15874d)

  24. Our economy has been resilient, but it’s hard not to see a recession.
    The libertarian in me hates to say this, but how well we get out of this will depend on how our state and national governments perform. I have reasonable confidence in Inslee, but none in Trump. He deserves to lose in November for his pathetic performance these last coupla months as it relates to the virus.

    Paul Montagu (d6528e)

  25. Whether he deserves it or not, he would lose if the election were this month because he has been overwhelmed by this. But November is a long way off.

    DRJ (15874d)

  26. 23. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/13/2020 @ 10:33 am

    If your kid is in public school, summer vacation starts Saturday. NOBODY is going back to school this year. The real question I have is how many go back afterwards — we are at the technological point that remote instruction is eminently practical and there is a lot to be said for it in normal times.

    There is also an argument for saying it should not take so much time. In Finland they have two fewer years of school till high school graduation (ages 7-16)

    I don;t think the teacher’s unions want people to discover that not so much school is necessary for what they are teaching.. They actually argue other reasons for children going to school

    They may apply but in some places that’s where children learn to be criminals. If they are not learning academic or practical skills that’s what they’re learning.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  27. Having got none of the credit for the resilient economy, he’ll be blamed for a recession. This is classic.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  28. I have spent the last several days on the other side of this issue. I am a trustee of a middling-size NGO (chapters in 30 or so countries on 3 continents), and our local areas all schedule events throughout the year. I have written one of those letters that we’ve all been getting, not about how to deal with the medical issues (go to the CDC site, thank you), but organization-culture-specific issues. This is complicated by all the different jurisdictions and facts-on-the-ground, and by the fact that our “power” is merely advisory to individual members.

    And we (the Trustee board) have gone through the process that every other such board has gone through. Late tonight (time zone issues) we will meet by G2M and vote to shut all events down for the foreseeable future, and agreeing to dig deep into our reserve funds to make up for the fund-raising losses to our budget and actual losses. Which is why I was bitching about airlines not refunding tickets yesterday. No doubt some event venues will be sticky about deposits, too.

    I’m thinking Zoom stock is a good thing to own.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  29. Local districts here are still in session. However, there is talk about doing remote learning with students, and schools sent out questionaires to parents about whether they have wifi and pc’s or ipads. They are looking at remote learning rather than just shutting down the schools and going on a “vacation”.

    P.S. Los Angeles Unified will shut down all of its 900 campuses (670,000+ students) on Monday.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  30. Metamucil for Teh sluggishness…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  31. I’m retired. I’m usually not an idiot. I would think that I could be of use somewhere volunteering. Some folks will be getting furloughed soon. Is there any organization which I could offer my time to? While I’d prefer not to be emptying bedpans, mopping foreheads, and helping people sit up and expel flem, someone is going to have to do it or lots more will die.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  32. Half-baked notion:

    If this is the kind of dire national emergency that our host expects (and I am not going to say he is wrong), it actually IS the “moral equivalent of war” at least the home-front part. See the WWI episodes of Downton Abbey.

    Suppose we said, “Hey, Dreamers! Have we got a deal for you! Help us out here and we’ll help you out after.” There is something to be said, all around, for paying your dues.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  33. The problem is ventilators. People who get hit with the disease bad need them, but they have run out

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-coronavirus-fate-is-already-sealed-11584025664 (Op-ed in today’s Wall street Journal)

    Is this more a result of the severity of Covid-19, or of long-term failures to invest in the Italian health-care system? One starts to suspect the latter.

    Italy lags other large European countries in provision of acute-care hospital beds, furnishing 2.62 of them per 1,000 residents as of 2016, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. In Germany it’s 6.06 and in France and the Netherlands it’s 3.15 and 3 respectively. That year, Italy devoted around $913 per capita to inpatient acute and rehabilitative care, compared with $1,338 in France, $1,506 in Germany, and $1,732 in the U.S.

    U.K. policy makers understand what such analyses portend—because underinvestment in Britain’s creaking health-care system is even worse. The U.K. spent the princely sum of $901.70 per capita on acute care in 2016, according to the OECD. British data don’t distinguish acute-care beds, but a comparison of available beds overall isn’t any more favorable to the U.K. (or to Italy). In 2017, when Germany provided 8 beds per 1,000 residents and France offered 5.98, Italy managed 3.18 and the U.K. only 2.54.

    As a result, British authorities have adopted a very specific policy goal in their approach to Covid-19. The aim is not to prevent the virus’s spread through the general population, which is a foregone conclusion. Rather, the name of the game is delay. British authorities are desperate to hold off on a mass outbreak until the socialized National Health Service has recovered from its chronic winter crisis.

    That’s right, the NHS, which now will have to cope with a new and fast-moving respiratory illness, already falls to pieces every year with the normal ebb and flow of cold-weather ailments. Each winter crisis becomes a bit more acute, and this year was no exception. As of December, only 80% of emergency-room patients were treated within four hours of arrival, down from 84% in the depths of the previous two winters.

    What accounts for these divergences in health-care resources requires more study than a single newspaper column can provide, but a few early hints emerge. One is the observation that the U.K. and Italy are significantly more dependent on direct government financing of health-care than is France or Germany.

    Government accounted for 79% of total health-care spending in the U.K. in 2017, according to Eurostat, and 74% in Italy. Germany and France both rely on compulsory insurance schemes with varying degrees of subsidy and government meddling, but outright government expenditure amounts to only 6% of total health spending in Germany and 5% in France. Covid-19 in this sense is a test of how much one trusts central health planners to make wise long-term decisions that boost resilience in the face of unusual dangers.

    Single payer health insurance caused this, but – important caveat – it took years to get to this point. And it is still getting worse.

    Once politicians have established national health insurance they want to save money, and nobody involved is afraid of the company going out of business, or being sued, or getting criticized by he politicians with legislation adopted that adversely affects them. Nobody who can do something about this is afraid of losing their jobs; nobody has skin in the game.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  34. I’m thinking Zoom stock is a good thing to own.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/13/2020 @ 10:45 am

    It’s up quite a bit from the beginning of February. I know a lot of people installing it lately, and a lot of licenses purchased. I’d imagine it’s going to shoot up by the end of the ‘spring break’ when people get online and see if it’s a good service.

    Having got none of the credit for the resilient economy, he’ll be blamed for a recession. This is classic.

    Munroe (dd6b64) — 3/13/2020 @ 10:41 am

    Yeah poor widdle Trump sure is a victim here. Poor poor trump. If only we would fight a little harder against the fake news that might blame him for the things he said on the teevee that scared everybody. Let’s wash up real good before we give mistah pwesident a big hug so he doesn’t get the sniffles.

    Dustin (9c58b3)

  35. Seems fitting… https://youtu.be/M4oBJxjnTS8

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  36. 32. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/13/2020 @ 10:52 am

    Suppose we said, “Hey, Dreamers! Have we got a deal for you! Help us out here and we’ll help you out after.” There is something to be said, all around, for paying your dues.

    The question is not whether the Dreamers would take it, but whether the immigration hardliners would take it as a stand alone bill and whether Donald Trump would sign such a bill.

    Democrats wuold at least demand that anyone in the United States for any reason be included. Some might object to the conditions. And insist other provisions of immigration law be waived in such a case, like fees and the public charge rule.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  37. Dana,

    This is another thing our NGO is looking at too. We operate largely with volunteers, except for some necessary office staffs here and there. The next time I get a salary or stipend for my work there will be the first.

    We have discovered that Go-to-meeting and Zoom work well for small to middling groups, both in one-to-many, um, lectures and in many-to-many discussions. And that Skype does not work well past one-to-one.

    But not everyone has broadband, and not everyone has a personal PC with camera and microphone. We are considering providing equipment to some, to avoid the alternative airfare. Tablets on a stand work, but hand-held devices are too small and too wiggly. There is also nothing worse than the fool who wants to participate by cell on the road with the windows down, or with his dogs and/or crying children in the room and his microphone unmuted.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  38. It’s not what Donald Trump said that scared people – it is what he did.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  39. Yeah poor widdle Trump sure is a victim here. Poor poor trump.

    He IS being treated unfairly, and whatever he said would have been attacked by some. HE could have announced a vaccine available to everyone TODAY, and we’d be seeing Jenny McCarthy on every news show and hearing about Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six death-vaccine plot.

    But.

    This is what he gets for being so fracking incompetent, selfish and undeservedly arrogant. He should announce today that he does not intend to be a candidate in 2020, and let the GOP find someone else. He can’t stand the heat but he’s got himself barricaded in the kitchen.

    That being said, he’s the only president we’ve got and some of this knee-jerk opposition isn’t helpful in a major crisis.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  40. Keep in mind that the predominant events ‘suspended’ ‘delayed’ or ‘cancelled’ have been chiefly entertainment venues – sports, theatre, concerts, etc., which are not essential services. Travel, yes, has been restricted, but w/exceptions and workaround loopholes to jump through abound. But they’re still pouring steel [at those mills still left operating the U.S. of A.] and still assembling cars and refrigerators; still training and trucking goods between states, still delivering the mail and still flipping burgers at those high paying jobs at Mickey Dees.

    Closer to home, our family’s experience w/t 1975/1976 swine flu epidemic remains the blueprint for planning and we’re using errand consolidation and the ’30-days-out rule’ as benchmarking. For example, postponing routine doctor office visits by a month as the testing situation ramps up; why hurry to sit in a waiting room at Bug Central if you’re in that vulnerable age bracket.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  41. The Democratic Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders scheduled for Sunday March 15 at r from 8 p.m. ET to 10 p.m. Eastern Time, has been moved from Phoenix, Arizona to CNN studios in Washington, D.C. and the studio audience eliminated; and Jorge Ramos of Univsions will not be a moderator because he is self quarantining (he’s been cleared by physicians) because of coronovirus.

    The spin room and press filing center are also gone.

    A llot of edia people are self quarantining/

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  42. It’s not what Donald Trump said that scared people – it is what he did.

    Why? If President Hillary had done it, would it still be scary? Or do people just want to think the worst of him,, and their fears are self-fulfilled?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  43. It’s not what Donald Trump said that scared people – it is what he did.

    Can’t it be both?

    Manataur (e632fa)

  44. It’s not what Donald Trump said that scared people – it is what he did.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146) — 3/13/2020 @ 11:00 am

    It’s a lot of things. What’s clear is his core base lives to defend Trump, so the controversy only further hardens their hearts against what Trump has done to our country and our people. These are the guys laughing that Iran is digging mass graves so the virus is kinda good.

    There’s no point arguing about it. Are you worse off now than you were four years ago has been replaced with ‘it’s so mean to associate Trump with how you’re doing’.

    Thank God Bernie won’t be the nominee because this is a really strong avenue towards a lot of socialist policies that have nothing to do with healthcare.

    Dustin (9c58b3)

  45. Having got none of the credit for the resilient economy, he’ll be blamed for a recession.

    It happened on his watch, so it’s on Trump. That’s how it works. Our economy has been resilient for awhile. It’s why the Great Recession wasn’t the Second Great Depression.

    Paul Montagu (d6528e)

  46. A lot of media people are self quarantining.

    You misspelled “hiding in the basement.” In my mind this is a wanton display of moral cowardice. They should be out, doing their job. They can take precautions, but “self-quarantining” when you are not ill, or even exposed, is just a euphemism for desertion.

    If anything, this is a commentary on the insularity of our society and weakness in our communities. This a product of urbanization wand specialization, to be sure, but it isn’t healthy and we are about to find out just how unhealthy it is. We all have to hang together here, or we will assuredly hang separately.

    We should be volunteering to help, not trying to dig a bunker.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  47. “It happened on his watch, so it’s on Trump.“
    Paul Montagu (d6528e) — 3/13/2020 @ 11:08 am

    What will peak first? Cases of CV, or cases of rank hypocrisy? I’ll bank on the former.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  48. From a message on a mailing list:

    … The World Health Organisation have stated that about 80% of patients experience only mild symptoms and recover completely within a week or so. The quoted mortality rate is 3%, but is probably much less since many people
    who were infected had no significant illness and so were not recorded as having
    …..Almost all those who have died had underlying medical conditions – again like influenza – so, while everyone should take reasonable precautions, there is no need to panic.

    As time passes the pool of susceptible people will diminish and the rate of spread will go down. It is certainly nowhere near as serious as the 1348-9 Bubonic plague epidemic which killed off over 50% of the population in many parts of Europe though, from the way people are reacting, one might get the contrary impression.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  49. A lot of media people are self quarantining.

    In so far as television goes, as long as sponsors keep buying ad air time, it’s not really an economic problem. Studio audience tickets are free.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  50. mr donald trump the perfect president gave a perfect speech and today he will declare a perfect emergency

    thats just how he rolls

    Dave (1bb933)

  51. Actually, DCSCA, if you take prescription medication, then I suggest getting doctor visits done now (if you have not been for over 7 or 8 months). In most places, doctors can reauthorize prescription refills if you have been seen in the office in the past 12 months.

    DRJ (15874d)

  52. It’s hard to know how durable this will be, but one result of this mess will be a very well-deserved loss of credibility for Rush and the herd of T-rump myrmidons in the media.

    All of this is tragic in some ways, but they made their own nasty beds.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  53. I now take it for granted that [Trump] will be tossed out of office in a landslide for Biden, and that no longer seems like the important thing it seemed to be four weeks ago. Right now, the key is to get through this thing.

    Pat, I will wager you a $100 donation to your favorite charity that Trump will be re-elected. If Trump wins both the popular vote and the electoral college you pay. If the Dem nominee wins both the EC and the popular vote, I pay. If Trump and the Dem win only the popular vote or the EC, we each pay $50.

    I do agree with you that the key is to get through this thing. We should follow the advice of public health officials and our physicians. Like you social distancing is no problem for me.

    In assessing this situation, weigh the worst possible outcome agaisnst the probability of your contracting Corona virus.

    Stu707 (52fdfe)

  54. In the unlikely event this all blows over and we return to normal before November, with deaths and devastation minimized, some here will be royally p!ssed.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  55. A graph of hospital beds per 1000 residents, by country:

    https://data.oecd.org/healtheqt/hospital-beds.htm#indicator-chart

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  56. Tip we learned the hard way when we had to start self-isolating living 30 years ago:

    1. Buy new toothbrushes for everyone every 2-4 weeks, or whenever someone gets sick.
    2. Buy separate toothpaste for everyone. Never share!
    3. Ditto mouthwash, and always use disposable cups.
    4. Don’t share eyedrops or contact lens solution.
    5. Clean icemakers regularly, if you must have ice.
    6. Use the hottest dishwasher setting, and only buy dishwashers with very high heat options.

    DRJ (15874d)

  57. @50. No, this is simply a patterned/scheduled routine visit every six weeks or so for weight and general status check– and lugging an 89 year old to Bug Central, where a concentration of who-knows-who-has-what amidst the immediate uncertainty doesn’t seem prudent, at least until the testing protocols are ironed out; 30 days postponement seems wise– rest of family agrees.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  58. Actually, DCSCA, if you take prescription medication, then I suggest getting doctor visits done now (if you have not been for over 7 or 8 months). In most places, doctors can reauthorize prescription refills if you have been seen in the office in the past 12 months.

    DRJ (15874d) — 3/13/2020 @ 11:20 am

    If y’all have blue cross in Texas you can visit the doc remotely and get some prescriptions. They love it because it’s cheap. I imagine this is a thing with other major insurance companies. Here’s the link for the program I can use.

    https://www.bcbstx.com/ut/doctors-and-hospitals/virtual-visits

    I think this will really take off as it saves a lot of worry about getting sick from visiting the doc.

    Dustin (9c58b3)

  59. 41. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/13/2020 @ 11:07 am

    If President Hillary had done it, would it still be scary?

    But nobody else would have done what he did. President Trump doesn’t care about the impact on foreigners of border restrictions. In fact he likes it.

    But most people don’t think that way: To heck with non-American citizens. So they don;t read it as protection of Americans – they read it as a dire emergency.

    And it’s very possible that Xi Jinping would not have done what he did if Donald Trump was not president of the United States. That started the ball rolling. He wanted to avoid travel restrictions on China – instead he precipitated them. He was surely more afraid of travel restrictions because Donald Trump was president. (but I think the corona “sanctions” may be a good thing. They shouldn’t be eliminated until he frees the Uighurs from prison camps for one thing. China’s military buildup may also be slowed down)

    Donald Trump didn’t want to place any sanctions on China. The Almighty made him do it. He also gave the greens the carbon emission reductions they wanted. He gave the border control people what they wanted. Now we’ll see if they still think it’s a good idea.

    If this was treated like SARS or even ebola, there would be no wholesale travel restrictions. There would only be taking a persons temperature at the airport or checkpoint, and there would be the assumption that if someone is not coughing and doesn’t have a fever, they are not infectious. And no cautions about hand washing. (in 1918 they warned about spitting)

    Instead we have this.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  60. In the unlikely event this all blows over and we return to normal before November, with deaths and devastation minimized, some here will be royally p!ssed.

    Spoken like the troll you show yourself most every day.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  61. In the unlikely event this all blows over and we return to normal before November, with deaths and devastation minimized, some here will be royally p!ssed.

    The actual crisis will end this summer some time, but we may never return to normal. How it plays out politically will depend on how bad it is and the effectiveness of the federal and state responses. Hard to see it from here. The only clear loser is China, whose credibility and reliability has taken a terrible hit, as it should.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  62. I talked with a friend last night and mentioned the estimate that 60 million people had flu recently. He connected it to a serious cold or something he had in January. The doctor gave him some blue pills – he thought it was an antibiotic. This is the same person who was getting these notifications over this and that closing over his phone

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  63. @55.Tip we learned the hard way when we had to start self-isolating living 30 years ago:

    And, of course, shower with a friend. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  64. The virus is no respecter of persons. We have three remaining candidates for the Presidency, all of whom are in their 70’s and none are in particularly good health for their age. When the smoke clears, none, or only some, of them might be left standing. Pence vs Sanders, anyone?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  65. BREAKING NEWS: With 500 dead, Iran to empty streets, check all 80 million people for virus * Top general: ’Entire nation will be monitored to identify those who are ill

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  66. Louisiana primary cancelled.

    Scheduled for April 4, new date June 20.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  67. “If anything, this is a commentary on the insularity of our society and weakness in our communities. This a product of urbanization wand specialization, to be sure, but it isn’t healthy and we are about to find out just how unhealthy it is. We all have to hang together here, or we will assuredly hang separately.”

    – Kevin M

    I think this is a very good point. I’ve been thinking about this quite a bit over the last few days.

    Leviticus (efada1)

  68. The virus has a less than 10% case fatality rate even for those over 80 who have come to medical attention.

    I can see the physical conventions cancelled.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  69. Luckily I’m an expert on social distancing, so for me this will be a snap.

    https://babylonbee.com/news/nations-nerds-wake-up-in-utopia-where-everyone-stays-inside-sports-canceled-social-interaction-forbidden

    The nation’s nerds woke up in a utopia this morning, one where everyone stays inside, sporting events are being canceled, and all social interaction is forbidden.

    All types of nerds, from social introverts to hardcore PC gamers, welcomed the dawn of this new era, privately from their own homes….

    To prepare for the onslaught of the deadly disease, nerds are changing absolutely nothing and are expected to rise up to rule the post-Coronavirus society, as they are the ones best adjusted to being sheltered in a basement, garage, or room for many days at a time marathoning Halo, Half-Life, The Legend of Zelda, Red Dead Redemption, or Horizon Zero Dawn.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  70. @53 Munroe, being serious here.

    The question of if these steps work or not will be hard to answer, require dealing with some ambiguity and likely be somewhat mixed.

    Scenario 1: Results aren’t that bad

    These steps are highly effective.
    These steps weren’t needed.

    Scenario 2: Results are bad

    These steps were a waste of time because the didn’t help.
    These steps weren’t implemented fast enough or fully enough.

    I honestly believe this is a serious issue that is a real health risk to my father (who is old, has had lung issues in the past and works in the medical field repairing equipment) and my FIL (who is currently in Chemo). I don’t think that this will result in a Zombie Apocalypse. I look at what worked in South Korea and didn’t work in Italy and I’m will to put energy into trying to keep the need for medical care within the bounds of what we can provide. I’m more concerned about my FIL because he and his siblings keep posting meme’s on their FB account about how this is a joke and they don’t really need to worry. I know my dad is being cautious.

    As far as Trump goes, I think it’s pretty clear that he’s done, and is doing, a poor job of running this. But I doubt that will change anyone’s mind, and his re-election or not isn’t the most important part of this to me. He’s had some extra challenges, but he’s the president, he’s supposed to overcome those. I have no more sympathy for that than I did when Obama would whine the Bush left him a bad economy. Besides, many of his screw up have been pretty cleanly his fault.

    Time123 (b0628d)

  71. Life in Seattle

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/a-week-at-the-epicenter-of-americas-coronavirus-crisis

    We stopped touching each other on a Wednesday. Or was it Tuesday? …Certainly by Wednesday the handshakes stopped. Hugs weren’t far behind. ..

    ..Days earlier, on Saturday, February 29th, we woke to news of the first U.S. death from the virus, a man in his fifties, at a hospital in Kirkland, eight miles northeast of Seattle. At nearby Life Care Center of Kirkland, two patients tested positive. The number of confirmed cases tripled within twenty-four hours. By Monday, five were dead, four of them patients at Life Care in their seventies and eighties….

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  72. But nobody else would have done what he did. President Trump doesn’t care about the impact on foreigners of border restrictions. In fact he likes it.

    Democrat presidents have closed border to national groups before. But why should a president care about the impact on foreigners of an action he reasonably believes to keep more Americans from harm?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  73. I’m more concerned about my FIL [in chemo]

    I’ve got a friend in chemo in the UK’s NHS. Sadly, he’s at the Hail Mary stage of his treatment (an aggressive lymphoma). In normal times they would do what they could to prolong his life. Now, I think he’s in the wrong triage line. This sucks.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  74. Copping to a truth- unfortunately, I’m more an Oscar Madison than a Felix Unger, so all this added ‘wiping and cleaning, wiping and cleaning’ is a chore. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  75. Thank God Bernie won’t be the nominee because this is a really strong avenue towards a lot of socialist policies that have nothing to do with healthcare.

    Suppose Biden gets CV and succumbs?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  76. I’m more an Oscar Madison than a Felix Unger, so all this added ‘wiping and cleaning, wiping and cleaning’ is a chore.

    I may have to get the maid to come in more often.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  77. It could be worse:

    https://xkcd.com/1245/

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  78. And it’s very possible that Xi Jinping would not have done what he did if Donald Trump was not president of the United States

    This is pretty tortured logic, Sammy, even for you.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  79. People may be panicky, but I can’t imagine the level of mass hysteria it would take to get Joe Biden elected over Trump, much less in a landslide. Heck, I don’t even see how people are so hysterical as to believe that Trump is uniquely, categorically and exponentially better or worse than any of the other Presidents we’ve had in the last hundred years or so. Whether you worship Trump as a god or denounce him as a demon, you’re obviously making him a more important part of your life than he should be and you really need to find yourself a hobby.

    Jerryskids (3308c1)

  80. Jerryskids (3308c1) — 3/13/2020 @ 12:27 pm

    Not much of an argument you and Munroe have. Don’t pay attention to Trump. What happens on his watch isn’t his fault. If you care about his performance you need to get a life. If you are critical of him you are so disloyal you basically are hoping for all your countrymen to die.

    Maybe you two need to reconsider the wisdom of this case for Trump to continue with all this success and making our nation great.

    Dustin (9c58b3)

  81. @75. I may have to get the maid to come in more often.

    Everybody ought to have a maid… 😉

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jBb7aDfMPM

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  82. People may be panicky, but I can’t imagine the level of mass hysteria it would take to get Joe Biden elected over Trump, much less in a landslide. Heck, I don’t even see how people are so hysterical as to believe that Trump is uniquely, categorically and exponentially better or worse than any of the other Presidents we’ve had in the last hundred years or so. Whether you worship Trump as a god or denounce him as a demon, you’re obviously making him a more important part of your life than he should be and you really need to find yourself a hobby.

    Well, Trump would lose to just about anyone other than Hillary Clinton, but she’s not running.

    As long as Biden has a pulse, he wins.

    Colonel Klink (Red) (9878f6)

  83. But nobody else would have done what he did. President Trump doesn’t care about the impact on foreigners of border restrictions. In fact he likes it.

    Democrat presidents have closed border to national groups before. But why should a president care about the impact on foreigners of an action he reasonably believes to keep more Americans from harm?

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/13/2020 @ 11:49 am

    I interpreted this that Trump closing the border isn’t an alarming event because it’s in line with his general isolationism and approach to problems. Had a more internationally focused president done the same thing it would have seemed alarming because it’s not something they wanted to do.

    Time123 (69b2fc)

  84. I’m more concerned about my FIL [in chemo]

    I’ve got a friend in chemo in the UK’s NHS. Sadly, he’s at the Hail Mary stage of his treatment (an aggressive lymphoma). In normal times they would do what they could to prolong his life. Now, I think he’s in the wrong triage line. This sucks.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/13/2020 @ 11:53 am

    Thank you. I’m sorry to hear about your friend. It’s a hard thing to deal with.

    Time123 (69b2fc)

  85. @81. As long as Biden has a pulse, he wins.

    “ROFLMAO!” – Hillary Rodham Clinton

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  86. Owl OwlFallen leaf
    @Nocturne20C
    ·
    #coronapocalypse means America MUST have #M4A stop playing games now folks!

    Trump is not doing his job
    #Biden can not handle this, he hasn’t even fully addressed it

    #Sanders has already addressed it and prepared with professionals across the country
    __ _

    Elizabeth Landers
    @ElizLanders
    .
    @BernieSanders has NOT been tested for coronavirus – he says he has no symptoms, hasn’t been near anyone with it, and doesn’t want to use a test that someone else needs.

    __ _

    harkin (b64479)

  87. “ The United States is home to the most innovative biotech companies and university research laboratories in the world. That fact should have given our country a huge advantage with respect to detecting and monitoring emerging cases of COVID-19 caused by the new coronavirus outbreak.

    Instead, as The New York Times reports in a terrific new article, officials at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stymied private and academic development of diagnostic tests that might have provided an early warning and a head start on controlling the epidemic that is now spreading across the country.

    As the Times reports, Seattle infectious disease expert Dr. Helen Chu had, by January, collected a huge number of nasal swabs from local residents who were experiencing symptoms as part of a research project on flu. She proposed, to federal and state officials, testing those samples for coronavirus infections. As the Times reports, the CDC told Chu and her team that they could not test the samples unless their laboratory test was approved by the FDA. The FDA refused to approve Chu’s test on the grounds that her lab, according to the Times, “was not certified as a clinical laboratory under regulations established by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, a process that could take months.”

    In the meantime, the CDC required that public health officials could only use the diagnostic test designed by the agency. That test released on February 5 turned out to be badly flawed. The CDC’s insistence on a top-down centralized testing regime greatly slowed down the process of disease detection as the infection rate was accelerating.

    A frustrated Chu and her colleagues began testing on February 25 without government approval. They almost immediately detected a coronavirus infection in a local teenager with no recent travel history. Chu warned local public health officials of her lab’s finding and the teenager’s school was closed as a precaution. The teen’s diagnosis strongly suggested that the disease had been circulating throughout the western part of Washington for weeks. We now know that that is likely true.

    Did the FDA and CDC functionaries commend Chu for being proactive? Not at all. Washington state epidemiologist Scott Lindquist recalled, “What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu. Stop testing.” On February 29, the FDA finally agreed to unleash America’s vibrant biotech companies and academic labs by allowing them to develop and deploy new tests for the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/benshapiro?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  88. What’s needed is some clarity that we cannot stop all business. I was talking with some testing and inspection contractors we hire to test power plants and they are really worried that they will be laid off if everyone cancels maintenance at the plants (where a hundred workers show up but are not really close to each other). Just as much as we need confidence the medical parts are in good hands, the ability to work needs to be addressed as well. This is not so much a money issue (the economy was going well) as it is a predictability one. Closing schools, universities and sporting events is a good thing as these are perfect mixing bowls for infection. But most workplaces can be made pretty safe. Some Italian companies are working two shifts so they can space the machine operators over 6 ft apart.

    DirtyJobsGuy (0d53bb)

  89. Link for 86 should have been this:

    https://reason.com/2020/03/11/how-government-red-tape-stymied-testing-and-made-the-coronavirus-epidemic-worse/?amp&__twitter_impression=true

    How Government Red Tape Stymied Testing and Made the Coronavirus Epidemic Worse
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  90. @81. As long as Biden has a pulse, he wins.

    “ROFLMAO!” – Hillary Rodham Clinton

    Let me quote the part you left out

    Well, Trump would lose to just about anyone other than Hillary Clinton, but she’s not running.

    As long as Biden has a pulse, he wins.

    Colonel Klink (Red) (9878f6)

  91. Trump, Mike Pence, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr, D B (I don;t remember her name) and one or two others holding a live nationally broadcast press conference,

    Trump praised his border control, and Mike Pence made sure to mention – he des this every time – how Trump was right bout the border and putting Aemrica;s health first. Trmp also prised his own efforts and private companies that helped

    The big news is that there’s going to be drive through testing. There’ll be a online questionnaire developed by Google that people can take to see if they need to be tested – not everybody should take the corona virus test, and if they pass they’ll be directed to a location where they can get a swab taken – many parking lots of Walmart, Target, CVS etc. The web site should be up by Sunday.

    All sorts of regulations will be waived, like the requirement for 3 days in a hospital before someone can be moved to nursing home. A new test was developed and approved by the FDA in record time – Roche was first. It would normally take weeks just to go from application to approval.

    Regulation of Telemedicine reduced. States set up virus HQ. Declaration of emergency allows him to spend $50 billion.

    Something about student loans I don’t know. Because students are out of college.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  92. Biden naming a doctor to his healthcare advisory board who believes people shouldn’t live past 70 to get the senior vote is 5-dimensional chess.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  93. You mean 5 dementia chess…

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  94. And it’s very possible that Xi Jinping would not have done what he did if Donald Trump was not president of the United States

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/13/2020 @ 11:59 am

    This is pretty tortured logic, Sammy, even for you.

    I think which people are in public office at a given time makes agreat deal of difference and the same thin would not have happened with different people. More different than you might think.

    The quarantine of Wuhan and other shutdowns that Xi Jingpin imposed about January 23 (not even letting people get back home from their Chinese Lunar New Year’s trips) were a desperate attempt to prevent even one more case of the Wuhan coronovirus from escaping China and being detected. (it came too late for that, though. A case had been detected in Thailand on Jan 13. Bt maybe he thought he could reassure the world: No more.)

    He would not have been quite so afraid if someone other than Donald Trump was president of the United States. It would have been enough to repeat the SARS containment procedures, or maybe add just a little bit. And another U.S. president would have said of Xi’s restrictions: that;s enough, that’s good, we’ll watch and wait..

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  95. 91. Isn’t that 75?

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  96. Let me quote the part you left out

    He does that kind of troll thing a lot.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  97. Golly! Walmart is going to give up some of their parking lot space for test centers!!!

    Wow!

    God Bless Donald Trump and his parade of CEOs. His berhind-the-curve, afternoon presser was a magnificent commercial for a single payer, NHS syste for the United States.

    Bless you, DJT!

    _____

    @89./@95 “As long as Biden has a pulse, he wins.”

    “ROFLMAO!” – Dead John McCain

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  98. How come no one is blaming Trump for a 2000 point Dow rise the day after they blamed him for a 2000 point drop. A cynical person would think they only see things through Trump-hate glasses.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  99. Media: Trump saying more border enforcement needed to stop virus is pure racism.

    Meanwhile…….

    Reuters: Mexico frets about U.S. coronavirus spread, could restrict border

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2102BY?__twitter_impression=true
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  100. Just attempted a grocery run.

    Panic is setting in.

    Every cart in use; lines the length of the store– the four-tiered shelving of an entire aisle of TP, paper towels and assorted paper products was literally empty. Amazing. Chicken, beef – chiefly hamburger- all gone; bottled water, milk and cheese as well. People literally has overtflowing carts full of stuff.

    Haven’t seen anything quite like this since hurricane warnings on barrier islands back East.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  101. And…….

    Ryan Fournier
    @RyanAFournier
    ·
    Justin Trudeau just said he is considering closing the border to Canada to stop the spread of Coronavirus…

    So he believes in border control now?
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  102. “Panic is setting in.”

    And Peggy Noonan smiled.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  103. “No, I don’t take responsibility at all.”
    – President Donald J. Trump

    Dave (1bb933)

  104. Schools are closing now for two weeks.(an extended spring break) who knows if they re-open after that.
    Listening to the “experts” on the radio, say unless some help comes, for paying for the required day care because both parents work.

    Govt solution to govt problem. Close the school to stop the spread in the classroom, and put the kids in over crowded understaffed day care. Unintended consequences.

    Ventilators. Sounds like the US has 65,000 in use, another 40-50,000 warehoused. Estimates predict a need for 200,000 thousand and President Trump has sourced a lot of that need.

    Now all we need is staff, specialized in Respiratory Therapy, to operate the equipment. Whats that? 300,000 new staff?

    Iowan2 (bbb95d)

  105. 99.

    Panic is setting in.

    It’s not like that in Brooklyn.

    Maybe people are a little bit less plugged in. Or it could be that in the suburbs they have fewer stores, and more big ones nd tere are people who can buy immense quantities and take it home..

    I saw Kleenix tissue being unpacked in one store and dis her that somewhere else they had run out of it (or maybe that;s appear to run out f it)

    A small 99 cent type store was selling Purell for $7.99 normally $2,99. A person complained. The owner told him she had paid $30 for a carton. But I think the NYC Department of Consumer Affairs made raising prices illegal.

    Abota week ago someone saw a man drive up in van pr truck to a building with packages and come out with hudred dollar bills in his hand if I got the story right.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  106. Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

    Projections based on C.D.C. scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway.

    Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month about what might happen if the new coronavirus gained a foothold in the United States. How many people might die? How many would be infected and need hospitalization?

    One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause. The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

    The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population. Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

    Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

    And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

    The assumptions fueling those scenarios are mitigated by the fact that cities, states, businesses and individuals are beginning to take steps to slow transmission, even if some are acting less aggressively than others. The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public.

    Long story, read the whole thing. Upshot: worst case estimates assume everyone is an idiot.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  107. In the press conference I heard DB (epidemic expert) say that in south Korea on;y about 4% to 4% of the tests were positive. This is an RNA test not an antibody test (but isn’t that better?) Some other test could give 1% to 2% positive.

    Also heard somewhere that if infection is too recent test will not be positive even though infection started.

    I think an antibody test will tell you if you ever had it, past, present and future (too new) RNA test will tell you only if you are contagious at the time of the test.

    Blood drives being cancelled but they need blood. Red Cross testing temperature of its staff> What, do they think this is SARS or ebola?

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  108. I was at several local stores and a Walmart yesterday. Except for TP and disinfectant, they were fully stocked. Even of canned goods, which you’d expect to see gone with hoarding. Then again, I am surrounded by 200 miles of cactus, rattlesnakes and Navajo reservations, so it’s not quite like the Petri dish that the megalopolis is.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  109. * n South Korea only about 3% to 4% of the tests were positive.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  110. * I saw Kleenix tissue being unpacked in one store this morning and before that did hear not today that somewhere else they had run out of it (or maybe that’s appear to run out of it because if it is the back room or another floor customers won’t see it.)

    They are not recommending people using Kleenix. What is the reason – litter? O not enough peole have it enough of the time?

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  111. A cynical person would think they only see things through Trump-hate glasses.

    Or an intelligent person who understood how markets work.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  112. Trying to understand the logic that having 4 cases of hand sanitizer while your neighbors have none is a good thing…..

    harkin (b64479)

  113. Then again, I am surrounded by 200 miles of cactus…

    Aloe is a natural disinfectant.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  114. @102. “The buck$ $top here.” – The Trump Organization

    Reaganomics. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  115. Marcus Walker
    @MMQWalker
    Italian National Health Institute data from 12/3 show mortality among confirmed cases thus:

    age 0-29: 0%
    30-49: 0.1%
    50-59: 0.6%
    60-69: 2.7%
    70-79: 9.6%
    80-89: 16.6%
    90+: 19%

    88% of the deceased are age 70+.
    Confirmed infections have a median age of 64 and are 60% male.

    _

    harkin (b64479)

  116. Damned ageist, sexist virus anyhow…!!!

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  117. Plus, iowan2, there are different types of medical ventilators. Some of those warehoused models are likely less effective or not as safe. If so, the more we put in service, the worse the outcomes.

    DRJ (15874d)

  118. How come no one is blaming Trump for a 2000 point Dow rise the day after they blamed him for a 2000 point drop. A cynical person would think they only see things through Trump-hate glasses.

    Word got around that he had contact with an infected Brazilian.

    nk (1d9030)

  119. Welp, spring break has started early for me. We have an admin meeting with the district on Monday, but our schools are out for several weeks at least. Also, my grocery store was generally sane, other than being out of toilet paper and hand sanitizer. Also, I don’t understand why everyone is buying bottled water. It isn’t an earthquake, a fallout scenario, or a zombie apocalypse, the plumbing is going to keep working.

    Nic (896fdf)

  120. What will peak first? Cases of CV, or cases of rank hypocrisy?

    What will peak is the number of times Trump takes credit for all the good things that happen on his watch and blames Obama or FakeNews or something else for all the bad things.

    Paul Montagu (d6528e)

  121. That being said, he’s the only president we’ve got and some of this knee-jerk opposition isn’t helpful in a major crisis.

    Truth is important in a major crisis and if our President won’t tell it, it falls on the rest of us to tell it.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  122. “ Then again, I am surrounded by 200 miles of cactus, rattlesnakes and Navajo reservations, so it’s not quite like the Petri dish that the megalopolis is.”

    – Kevin M

    There’s mountains and a river too, don’t forget those.

    Leviticus (28a6ca)

  123. There’s mountains and a river too, don’t forget those.

    Three days ago there were no known cases in NM. Yesterday there were 10, two of whom are hospitalized. The state is seriously trying to “flatten the curve.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  124. Truth is important in a major crisis and if our President won’t tell it, it falls on the rest of us to tell it.

    I actually think he believes what he’s saying, so to him it IS truth. What I hear from him sounds more like a failure to grasp details than intentional misstatements. I’m not sure what the damage is if he attributes something to Google instead of Alphabet, for example.

    What I think you mean is that CREDIBILITY is important in a major crisis, and half the country flat-out disbelieves every word out of his mouth and the other half believes him uncritically. That’s a problem for sure, but I’d rather see people contradicting things that are just flat-out wrong than picking on every little thing.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  125. I remember back to Jimmy Carter and the Iran hostage crisis. Most Americans rallied around Carter despite their misgivings as to his judgement. After all, Iran’s collapse was largely his fault. This support was uncritical — he was OUR president and it was a matter of national interest.

    Until the clusterfrack of Desert One, of course. After that, it was a search for a replacement. Even his own party wanted him gone and almost gave Teddy Kennedy the nomination.

    Sadly, that isn’t happening here.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  126. I imagine this is a thing with other major insurance companies.

    Did you know that the biggest insurer in existence (Medicare) will NOT pay for telemedicine?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  127. that no longer seems like the important thing it seemed to be four weeks ago

    That’s a very responsibility-avoiding way of saying that “we in the mainstream media and the NeverTrump hangers-on were all so obsessed with our pointless impeachment charade during the most critical times for US travel quarantine that we either utterly dismissed the reports or actively shilled for China at the time. But now that the disease is here thanks in no small part to our steadfast refusal to dedicate any relevant media time to it during THE GREAT IMPEACHMENT BOOGALOO, we’ll pay any attention to it that we’re forced to by circumstance and Democrat party talking points!”

    “Truth is important in a major crisis and if our President won’t tell it, it falls on the rest of us to tell it.”

    Yes, and your posts, especially on Twitter, been extremely poor and weak on the ‘whole’ and ‘nothing but’ aspects of it that makes “truth-telling” a virtue rather than an annoyance in a crisis. Consider removing yourself from your threads as you’ve consistently been the least valuable contributor to them.

    Reckoning Man (6c886f)

  128. That’s a very responsibility-avoiding way of saying that “we in the mainstream media and the NeverTrump hangers-on were all so obsessed with our pointless impeachment charade during the most critical times for US travel quarantine that we either utterly dismissed the reports or actively shilled for China at the time. But now that the disease is here thanks in no small part to our steadfast refusal to dedicate any relevant media time to it during THE GREAT IMPEACHMENT BOOGALOO

    He’s blaming “sleepy joe” for the state of his administration three years into his term. You’re blaming a blogger. Bless your heart. Drinking poison and hoping the other side gets sick, shaking your fist at the TV set every time the democrats win another election.

    Personally I think it’s pretty funny. I don’t even care that much between Biden and Trump, except that Trump’s trolls really deserve to lose. Please speak more often and louder, particularly before the election, to independent voters and conservatives. Thanks in advance.

    Dustin (9c58b3)

  129. to say no to president trump is to say no to paula white which is the same as saying no to jonathan cain

    the coronavirus is america’s punishment for this horrible irreverence by the media and never trump

    repent now, sinners

    donate to president trump’s campaign, donate to paula white’s ministry, and buy all the journey albums

    if you already have all the journey albums, buy them again

    they make great christmas gifts

    nk (1d9030)

  130. 116.

    Italian National Health Institute data from 12/3 show mortality among confirmed cases thus:

    age 0-29: 0%
    30-49: 0.1%
    50-59: 0.6%
    60-69: 2.7%
    70-79: 9.6%
    80-89: 16.6%
    90+: 19%

    88% of the deceased are age 70+.
    Confirmed infections have a median age of 64 and are 60% male.

    The Wall Street Journal of Friday, March 13, had a whole special section devoted to coronovirus and some of what was included there backs this up.

    A pediatric and infectious disease specialist at NYU Langone Health, Vanessa Raabe, says there have e been no reported deaths in children under age 9, and only 2% of reported case have been in children (up to what age? 17?) and children who have gotten the virus have had mild symptoms. (NYU
    Medical has devoted a lot of attention to infectious disease for many tears – not so much to preventing hospital infections.)

    There was also a report (study) by the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (the government likes naming things after American institutions) that reported on 44,672 patients
    through February 11. This would cover the period during which no cases were recognized until a
    DNA test was performed and came back positive, and it was hard to get a test done and the later
    period when every person showing signs of pneumonia or other symptoms was considered to have
    this disease but not when they (probably) restricted diagnosis again. The vast majority of
    these cases probably come from the more liberal period. The overall mortality rate (of people
    who were visibly sick or who were in close enough contact with sick people to be tested) was
    2.4%. It was 14.8% for those over 80 and 8% for those in the 70-79 age bracket. Splitting it up
    another way, it was 10.5% for those with cardiovascular disease and 7.5% for this with diabetes.

    The relative ratio is probably more reliable than the raw figures.
    examined

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  131. It’s peculiar that SARS, which had a far higher mortality rate, caused fewer deaths than SARS2 is causing.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  132. The incubation period: For some reason that’s probably not very scientific, they are using a period of 0-14 days, and not paying any attention to whether or not there are any symptoms.

    My understanding is, it takes about two to five days to show significant symptoms. You are probably contagious for only a short period of time before you notice it, or somebody else notices it.

    The 0-14 and finished 14 day isolation period is not the on;y stupid thing that they are saying, Another i

    Are you contagious if you do not have a temperature?

    A fever shows up before other symptoms, so it’s like this: If you don’t have a fever, you are, in all probability, not contagious.

    A white blood cell test might be a better indicator than temperature alone, but takes longer. Of course, these both test for any infection, and there are, of course, other possible reasons for a high while blood cell count.

    Even people with a weakened immune system should get a body temperature of at least 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or 38 degrees Celsius (100.4 Fahrenheit)) – the White House, by setting the bar at 99.9 or lower, was setting it very low.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

  133. The United States Supreme Court has cacelled oral arguments for the remainder of March.

    Only?

    Sammy Finkelman (e4c3a1)

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