Patterico's Pontifications

6/8/2019

President Trump Announces Signed Agreement With Mexico, Suspends Tariffs; UPDATE: Achieved Nothing New

Filed under: General — Dana @ 7:35 am



[guest post by Dana]

Untitled

Mexico has confirmed the agreement:

Mexico Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard in a tweet confirmed the agreement. In a separate tweet, he thanked all who supported Mexico through its negotiations with the United States.

Mexican Ambassador Martha Bárcena also wrote in a tweet translated into English: After several days of negotiations and 12 hours today in the State Department, we reached an agreement with the United States to address the humanitarian crisis stemming from the recent migratory flows that have affected our two countries.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador tweeted: “Thanks to the support of all Mexicans, the imposition of tariffs on Mexican products exported to the USA has been avoided.”

You can read the joint declaration here.

Here is a brief summary of the State Department guidelines:

Mexico has agreed to deploy its national guard throughout Mexico, in particular to its Southern border, which borders Guatemala, according to details of the agreement released by the State Department. In addition, Mexico has agreed to take “decisive action to dismantle human smuggling and trafficking organizations as well as their illicit financial and transportation networks.”

According to the State Department said the United States will “immediately expand” the implementation of an existing protocol “across its entire Southern Border” and, as a result, migrants seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border “will be rapidly returned to Mexico where they may await the adjudication of their asylum claims.” Mexican officials have agreed to offer jobs, health care and education to those awaiting the adjudication of asylum claims.

It appears that the U.S. was unable to get Mexico to agree to be the “safe third country,” but there is this:

Both parties also agree that, in the event the measures adopted do not have the expected results, they will take further actions. Therefore, the United States and Mexico will continue their discussions on the terms of additional understandings to address irregular migrant flows and asylum issues, to be completed and announced within 90 days, if necessary.

Yep:

This explains why Trump said that tariffs were “indefinitely suspended,” rather than canceled. López Obrador committed to a permanent application of tougher enforcement and of dealing with asylum seekers, and Trump appears to have agreed on a conditional basis. The idea seems to be that Mexico will do everything to avoid the necessity of getting forced into a “safe third country” protocol. That’s a small win for López Obrador, but it also puts a lot of pressure on him to keep Trump happy.

Both Sen. Chuck Schumer and House Speaker Pelosi reacted to President Trump’s announcement with a bit of sarcasm and disdain:

[T]he New York Democrat tweeted: “This is an historic night! @realDonaldTrump has announced that he has cut a deal to ‘greatly reduce, or eliminate, Illegal Immigration coming from Mexico and into the United States.’ Now that that problem is solved, I’m sure we won’t be hearing any more about it in the future.”

On Saturday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi responded to the latest development with Mexico, saying in a statement that Trump “undermined America’s preeminent leadership role in the world by recklessly threatening to impose tariffs on our close friend and neighbor to the south.” Congress, she said, will hold the White House “accountable for its failures to address the humanitarian situation at our southern border.”

“We are deeply disappointed by the Administration’s expansion of its failed Remain-in-Mexico policy, which violates the rights of asylum seekers under US law and fails to address the root causes of Central American migration,” Pelosi said.

(Cross-posted at The Jury Talks Back.)

–Dana

UPDATE BY PATTERICO: Just so we’re clear: Trump won nothing:

The deal to avert tariffs that President Trump announced with great fanfare on Friday night consists largely of actions that Mexico had already promised to take in prior discussions with the United States over the past several months, according to officials from both countries who are familiar with the negotiations.

Friday’s joint declaration says Mexico agreed to the “deployment of its National Guard throughout Mexico, giving priority to its southern border.” But the Mexican government had already pledged to do that in March during secret talks in Miami between Kirstjen Nielsen, then the secretary of homeland security, and Olga Sanchez, the Mexican secretary of the interior, the officials said.

The centerpiece of Mr. Trump’s deal was an expansion of a program to allow asylum-seekers to remain in Mexico while their legal cases proceed. But that arrangement was first reached in December in a pair of painstakingly negotiated diplomatic notes that the two countries exchanged. Ms. Nielsen announced the Migrant Protection Protocols during a hearing of the House Judiciary Committee five days before Christmas.

And over the past week, negotiators failed to persuade Mexico to accept a “safe third country” treaty that would have given the United States the legal ability to reject asylum seekers if they had not sought refuge in Mexico first.

If you believed he had leveraged his moronic threats into a deal that he would have not achieved otherwise, you got conned.

Hey, he’s a con man. It’s what he does.

56 Responses to “President Trump Announces Signed Agreement With Mexico, Suspends Tariffs; UPDATE: Achieved Nothing New”

  1. Good morning.

    Dana (779465)

  2. The trick is to inform Schumer and Pelosi that tariffs are bad for America — that way they’ll be all gung-ho for them.

    Munroe (98b4e2)

  3. Good news is bad news.
    – A Disgruntled Democrat

    Bruce (6f45b5)

  4. And when will Mexico send their first payment for the wall?

    Dave (1bb933)

  5. It’s good news from any perspective. Well done, Orange Person!

    Schumer and Pelosi suck monkey turds. Like their slicked-up toy-boy Obama did.

    nk (dbc370)

  6. I’m old enough to remember when Trump went and had a chat with Little Rocket Man and returned confidently proclaiming North Korea was no longer a nuclear threat. I notice here he’s not proclaiming the border crisis solved, but merely that steps are being taken. Perhaps he becoming a little wiser than his supporters.

    Jerryskids (702a61)

  7. Wow, it sounds like tarriffs would be much worse for Mexico than they would be for America. Enough to immediately force them to the negotiating table like a scared cartel victim, pleading, “No, meester Trump, ANYTHING but the tarriff!” Almost like they’re the ones primarily benefiting from the free trade agreement!

    Gadfly (4b4cfa)

  8. 6. Up here in the Midwestern Great Plains, we have a term for that: “Damming with faint praise.”

    Gryph (08c844)

  9. 7. So say the Trump supporters. That doesn’t make it true.

    Gryph (08c844)

  10. The sinaloa cartel is still active the zetas are ex special special forces, the guadalajara is headed by an ex cop

    https://www.judicialwatch.org/blog/2019/06/mexican-cartels-among-greatest-criminal-national-security-public-health-threat-to-u-s/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    narciso (d1f714)

  11. Kind of like the kavanaugh kabuki

    https://mobile.twitter.com/almostjingo/status/1085616261155807232/photo/1

    Apco is also hip deep in Russia

    narciso (d1f714)

  12. Thank God. Because that 5% increase on Mexican imports that are 5% of our GDP were going to Bankrupt us! Congrads to Mexico for saving Civilization.

    Now, lets see if they mean it or whether its just more of the long Con.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  13. Democrats = open borders, no immigration laws and traitors.

    Got a communicable disease? A career criminal or drug smuggler? Maybe a terrorist? Or perhaps you’re too sick or stupid to ever hold down a job?

    Don’t worry. Just come on in to the USA! Nancy and Chuck and Mitt welcome you. Pick up your Democrat Registration form at the Booth.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  14. Well there are illevals as far as bangladesh, heck the third language in signs on the border is Chinese.

    narciso (d1f714)

  15. 10, those guys probably rue the caravans as much as you and I- not as much $ premium per head with brazen migrants marching in the open. The Colombians have taken notice of service interruption and have started shipping direct to the east coast by ship – 2 big busts in Philly and Jersey in the past few months.

    urbanleftbehind (0daf23)

  16. Follow-through is what is important here. I can recall when Bill Clinton cut some sort of deal with Mexico whereby the state and municipal police were supposed to start working with the Federales to crack down on coyotes and other smugglers. This was hailed as a huge breakthrough in border control. But then the LA Times did some actual journalism and sent reporters down to Mexican border cities to see if this crack-down was taking place, only to find that coyotes still recruited openly in public and that local police consistently looked the other way.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  17. Oh please, for all his bluster, Trump backed down. No doubt due to pressure from agricultural producers and manufacturers, especially in the automotive industry but across the business sector, and dire warnings from representatives, senators and governors in border states–Arizona, New Mexico and particularly Texas–and other states that would have been severely impacted. Imposing these idiotic tariffs would have wrecked the economy and disrupted supply chains throughout multiple businesses.

    It was a stupid idea to begin with, “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” What has been accomplished? Other than lowering the United States’ status as a reliable trading partner, I mean.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  18. Can you sing the Frito Bandito song for us, Gadfly?

    Beldar (fa637a)

  19. Add further the banks that handle the skim hsbc, who was working for them as recent as three years ago, and banamez, who took an honoraria from them, also in the same period

    narciso (d1f714)

  20. I doubt that a produce exporter like Mexico will just all of a sudden buy American produce. This was a contentless pander to American farmers who’ve already been damaged by Trump’s China tariffs and to edge Congress closer to approving NAFTA 2.0.

    Paul Montagu (020e47)

  21. Trump exceeded my low expectations here, using a fairly nuclear threat to Mexico’s economy (that 5% of our GDP is a LOT more of their GDP) to get them to do a little bit more. Only the shelter-in-place agreement has real meaning (and Democrats hit hardest). But that agreement also means that Mexico now has an incentive to prevent more refugees from the south, which helps indirectly.

    Overall, a win for Trump, if an ugly one.

    Kevin M (21ca15)

  22. Yet to be seen is how much Trump’s reckless use of his tariff powers affects other trading partners or future agreements, and what Congress might want to do to curb these powers.

    Kevin M (21ca15)

  23. That would be comey and Mueller in that order, fitz was busy running interference for Michigan state.

    narciso (d1f714)

  24. This might have been the usual conservatives joshing with the pollsters, but maybe this got into his head:

    http://qz.com/1636253/joe-biden-beats-donald-trump-in-texas-polls/

    urbanleftbehind (0daf23)

  25. Off-topic: Garcetti loses Steve Lopez.

    Welcome to Garcetti’s L.A.: heaps of trash, hordes of rats and very little leadership

    Los Angeles looks as if it’s digging out from a hurricane, with hordes on the streets, tents everywhere and armies of rodents on the march, inciting fears of disease. We learned from Dakota Smith and David Zahniser in last week’s avalanche of Mad Max news that the rat circus at City Hall was tied to homeless people using the grates around the building as bathrooms. And my colleagues Emily Alpert-Reyes, Doug Smith and Ben Oreskes reported that the number of 311 calls for help shot up 167% between 2016 and 2018.

    I’m offering here and now to put any “stunned” politicians on an email loop, so I can help educate them. I naively invited readers last week to email me photos of trash heaps and encampments in their neighborhoods, and my in-box is about to explode. I’ve got photos of half-clothed people passed out on pavement, sidewalks blocked by tents, bulky items, piles of poop and enough trash to fill the Grand Canyon.

    “Much of the street trash you saw gets swept into our waterways and virtually straight into our oceans and onto our beaches!” wrote Craig Herring, who sent me a set of disgusting photos to prove his point.

    Kevin M (21ca15)

  26. It’s definitely hilarious that the democrats couldn’t just say ‘this is good’. At some point the leaders in each party have to try to work together, but it’s apparently impossible. You can’t just blame Trump or any other single entity for that.

    I hope this works out. It will probably be an improvement.

    Dustin (6d7686)

  27. There was only the ‘threat'; the actual tariffs were never ‘in place’ so there was nothing to ‘suspend.’

    He blustered, bluffed and won.

    Well played Captain, sir. Imported Mexican strawberries all ’round this evening.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  28. Wow, it sounds like tarriffs would be much worse for Mexico than they would be for America. Enough to immediately force them to the negotiating table like a scared cartel victim, pleading, “No, meester Trump, ANYTHING but the tarriff!” Almost like they’re the ones primarily benefiting from the free trade agreement!

    Gadfly (4b4cfa) — 6/8/2019 @ 9:40 am

    Of course. The USA is huge and awesome economically. But two points.

    The USA is successful because we’re a stable, reliable partner. We can’t be bellicose North Korea and keep that success. There is much more competition than there used to be, and if you were a Mexican businessman you would be weighing the tremendous benefits of business with America against the potential issues that could come in the future.

    Trump backed down with North Korea, because he couldn’t admit he failed. If Mexico doesn’t follow through, there will be pressure on Trump to back down. That’s what Pelosi is setting up with her comments. She’s getting in Trump’s head so he feels the need to tell his supporters this is all a big success. Time will tell if that works. I imagine Mexico does need our trade enough to try a lot harder, but they also want Trump to fail. This is not the foundation of a lasting deal.

    Dustin (6d7686)

  29. Agreed, Dustin. This was broken long before Trump. In many respects Trump is a symptom, not a cause.

    Kevin M (21ca15)

  30. Mexico may want Trump to fail, but they don’t want to be blamed for it, and they also have to consider he might be re-elected. So I expect their southern border to become far less porous.

    They have another reason — they’ve agreed to give refugees work permits while they wait, and that puts pressure they don’t need on their economy.

    I think that there is an opportunity here, in an “Only Nixon could go to China” sense, for Trump to work out a long-term deal with Mexico over immigration. We have a bilateral deal with Canada, we would be better off with a similar deal with Mexico that would not only allow regulated immigration to the US, but also greatly expand Americans’ ability to live, work and own property in Mexico.

    Kevin M (21ca15)

  31. Trump has won, but he did it in an ugly, horrible, awful manner. In fact, I think he should have lost rather then resort to ugh…tariffs. The USA has many shameful events in its history, slavery, broken Indian treaties, Romney nomination, but none is worse than tariffs, those barriers to cheap Mexican imports.

    Thank God, I can now pay $1.50 for an Avocado instead of the Priced-out-of-my-reach $1.55.

    Hopefully, Trump will listen to the Chamber of Commerce in the future, and realize that some terrorists, MS-13 gang members, and law-breaking are worth it to keep cheap lettuce.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  32. Hmmm … things seem to have changed with Canada since 9/11. Immigration to the US from Canada seems much tighter now and the bilateral deal that I recalled isn’t much in evidence now.

    Kevin M (21ca15)

  33. UPDATE BY PATTERICO: Just so we’re clear: Trump won nothing:

    The deal to avert tariffs that President Trump announced with great fanfare on Friday night consists largely of actions that Mexico had already promised to take in prior discussions with the United States over the past several months, according to officials from both countries who are familiar with the negotiations.

    Friday’s joint declaration says Mexico agreed to the “deployment of its National Guard throughout Mexico, giving priority to its southern border.” But the Mexican government had already pledged to do that in March during secret talks in Miami between Kirstjen Nielsen, then the secretary of homeland security, and Olga Sanchez, the Mexican secretary of the interior, the officials said.

    The centerpiece of Mr. Trump’s deal was an expansion of a program to allow asylum-seekers to remain in Mexico while their legal cases proceed. But that arrangement was first reached in December in a pair of painstakingly negotiated diplomatic notes that the two countries exchanged. Ms. Nielsen announced the Migrant Protection Protocols during a hearing of the House Judiciary Committee five days before Christmas.

    And over the past week, negotiators failed to persuade Mexico to accept a “safe third country” treaty that would have given the United States the legal ability to reject asylum seekers if they had not sought refuge in Mexico first.

    If you believed he had leveraged his moronic threats into a deal that he would have not achieved otherwise, you got conned.

    Hey, he’s a con man. It’s what he does.

    Patterico (92c044)

  34. “But the Mexican government had already pledged to do that in March during secret talks in Miami between Kirstjen Nielsen, then the secretary of homeland security, and Olga Sanchez, the Mexican secretary of the interior, the officials said.”

    Oh, I see, they had SECRETLY agreed to do that all along, which was why they needed very non-secret threats to actually put them into place, which are now under ‘indefinite suspension’ and can be returned to at any time. Sounds like losing to me!

    I’m so glad that taking extremely obvious diplomatic butt-covering by unnamed individuals with connections to lying press offices at face value is something we can expect from Patterico. Can’t have the government getting bad things said about it!

    Gadfly (cdf3ba)

  35. I saw the NY Times article claiming that Trump had achieved nothing new, but it doesn’t make sense to me. If Mexico had agreed to all these actions months ago, why didn’t they implement any of them until Trump threatened them with a tariff?

    David in Cal (0d5a1d)

  36. When writing the post I contemplated addressing the angle that Patterico mentions above. However, I opted not to because I just wanted to lay out what happened, and what the agreement entails. Also, it goes without saying that whether he actually gained something or not does not matter one bit to his base. This deal with Mexico will be played to the hilt for his 2020 reelection campaign. To far too many, it’s perception that matters, not reality. Especially when it comes to Trump. And while Mexico is not paying for a wall, and the wall is not even near completion, it won’t matter because this joint agreement can be spun anyway necessary to present Trump as the ultimate tough negotiator and deal maker. It’s the “victory” he’s needed for upcoming campaign rallies. His supporters will eat it up.

    Dana (779465)

  37. David in Cal (0d5a1d) — 6/8/2019 @ 5:52 pm

    They were already doing these things.

    One small benefit: Trump just lost his trade war with China. The Chinese, along with everyone else, now know that as long as you allow Trump to claim a personal victory, you can get anything you want when making a “deal” with you.

    Kishnevi (a321ca)

  38. All of Trump is like his hair. Very little arranged to cover nothing.

    Still, it’s good that the Mexican tariffs bullsh!t is over.

    nk (dbc370)

  39. The deal was agreed to in March and Mexico had done nothing. Suddenly they start arresting people and freezing assets. Trump used leverage to light a fire under them to fulfill their contractual obligations.
    Developers do this all the time. They withhold payments until you achieve a milestone, they coerce you into coming back and finishing a punch list via negative change orders.
    There’s nothing new there except a willingness on Mexico’s part to actually fulfill the terms

    steveg (354706)

  40. He didn’t leverage anything new. He leveraged the expedited enforcement of an existing agreement.
    Somebody here has to be an expert on construction law and the type of contractual agreements Trump is probably familiar with and can explain how leverage is used in those contexts better than I

    steveg (354706)

  41. 34. And he does it so well. I gotta give him that. (still not giving him my vote)

    Gryph (08c844)

  42. Of course he won; rather than posting about something else, we’re posting about him stopping something that was a nothing and never put in place to begin with. It’s just a classic Trump bait-and-switch move. Put this in the file next to NorKo no longer being a nuclear threat.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  43. BTW Mr. President, know you don’t eat the stuff, but my lettuce at Ralph’s stamped grown in the USA jumped from $1/head to $1.69/head in March. But the lettuce stamped grown in Mexico is still just a buck down the street. Can you please impose a tariff on the San Joaquin Valley? Or maybe diesel fuel suppliers to U.S. truckers? 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  44. More mush from the wimp.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  45. Hmmm. So if a judge threatens a massive daily fine on a party who already was obliged to do something under a prior ruling if the party doesn’t start living up to the agreement, and the party duly caves in and complies–after which the judge withdraws the threat of the fines for contempt–does that mean the judge is a blowhard who didn’t really *do* anything in that situation? Because that’s the logic that those mocking Trump here seem to be using–Mexico wasn’t living up to their prior agreements, he threatened to slam them with tariffs, they started complying with the prior agreements, and he withdrew the threat (while making it clear that the threat was still on the table if compliance wasn’t continued)–making Trump a blowhard who hasn’t *really* accomplished anything, in their view. Anyone care to explain the difference to me?

    M. Scott Eiland (b16b32)

  46. president trump is perfect like a chocolate cake with bacon sprinkles and i love him

    Dave (1bb933)

  47. And let’s also note that Trump’s all-caps tweet about Mexicans agreeing to “IMMEDIATELY BEGIN BUYING LARGE QUANTITIES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT FROM OUR GREAT PATRIOT FARMERS” was full of s**t.

    Paul Montagu (9ed950)

  48. Speaking of disinformation from the Trump White House, the administration relied on an op-ed from an Iranian “activist” who doesn’t exist, and they suppress information that contradicts the narrative rolling about in Trump’s head. The default position should be that Trump is a con man who lies about everything. That way, when he says something that’s actually truthful, we can all be pleasantly surprised.

    Paul Montagu (9ed950)

  49. Ah the intercept which relies on niac. The regime mouthpiece, dies he fake the video feed too, of the demonstrations in iran now their one of their contributors issued 100 + threats to synagogues.

    Narciso (d76f90)

  50. They were part of the echo chamber that Rhodes used to sell the Iran deal, but you have an idiot governor who focuses on a non existent problem global warming, who silences civic activists like eyrman, through his flunky as atty general.

    Narciso (d76f90)

  51. So there isnt an emergency that is straining the border patrol despite the deal last match, are their two moons in the sky in your world.

    Narciso (d76f90)

  52. They were part of the echo chamber that Rhodes used to sell the Iran deal, but you have an idiot governor who focuses on a non existent problem global warming, who silences civic activists like eyrman, through his flunky as atty general.

    I’m sure that sounded perfectly reasonable in your own head, narc.

    Paul Montagu (9ed950)

  53. Rhodes admitted it was an echo chamber, folks like omari Ceren (an aide to Ted Cruz now) and Mike doran fleshed it out.

    Narciso (d76f90)

  54. The MEK supported Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran deal, so I don’t know why you’re going on about Ben Rhodes.

    Paul Montagu (62d3b5)


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