Patterico's Pontifications

10/11/2016

Yet Another New Poll Shows Trump Getting Crushed

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 10:30 am



Oh, man. Yesterday’s NBC/WSJ poll showing Hillary up by 11 may not have been an outlier. A PRRI/The Atlantic poll also shows Trump getting his rear end handed to him, also by double digits (49-38):

With less than a month to go until Election Day, Donald Trump’s standing has plummeted with likely voters, falling from a dead heat just two weeks ago to a double-digit deficit behind Hillary Clinton, according to a PRRI/The Atlantic poll released Tuesday.

Clinton holds a 49-38 lead over the Republican. Two weeks ago, a previous PRRI/Atlantic poll found Trump and Clinton tied at 43-43. Following the first presidential debate in Hempstead, New York, the Democrat broke out to a 47-41 lead. She has now built on that lead.

Note that Hillary has built this huge lead from a tie two weeks ago.

The poll was conducted last Wednesday through Sunday — meaning that many of the respondents had not yet heard about the “grab them by the p***y” video or seen the debate. That . . . is probably not very good for Mr. The Donald.

After the NBC/WSJ poll came out yesterday showing an 11-point Trump lead for Hillary, a friend of mine I respect wrote me to say:

Take a look at the Sample of the LV [likely voters] in the NBC/WSJ poll.

The balance of Dem to Reps is pretty reflective of final result in just looking at Sample %s. Given the affective attachment Dems have to Dems, it’s not surprising that a sample that has 43% Dem ID and 36% Rep ID splits 49 to 42.

It’s not a particularly good sample, which is why there is a +/- 4.3% swing.

It’s a fair point. So when former Trump toady Joe Scarborough says yesterday’s NBC/WSJ poll was “cooked” — well, that might be overstating things a bit, but there are arguably issues with the sample. Whether this new poll suffers from the same defect was not immediately apparent to me from the details available in the poll’s official announcement. Maybe some data maven can drill down further on this issue in the comments.

We’ll probably know soon enough whether these polls are outliers. Right now, it just seems like it’s one piece of bad news for Donald Trump after another.

[Cross-posted at RedState.]

86 Responses to “Yet Another New Poll Shows Trump Getting Crushed”

  1. Mr. Trump’s climbing on up!

    all the way up to the top of Sugar Mountain

    ever onward

    ever higher

    and when he mounts the summit we all gonna share the glory

    even you Chris Christie even you

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  2. Look at Zero Hedge for an analysis of this poll.

    Charlie Davis (df08d0)

  3. Hey, Mr. Feet?

    Want to make a bet about the outcome of this election you aren’t voting in?

    I’m very serious. If I win, you have to lose the babytalk and potty mouth insults and actually contribute like I know you can.

    If you win, I’ll never criticize your BS again.

    What do you say?

    Happy to take side bets about more vulgar tapes about Trump in the coming weeks, too.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  4. yes yes you have to do the analyze

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  5. i don’t wanna Mr. Jester

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  6. And we all know why, sir.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  7. Here’s what Hillary Clinton said during the debate:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/us/politics/transcript-second-debate.html?_r=1

    OK, Donald. I know you’re into big diversion tonight, anything to avoid talking about your campaign and the way it’s exploding and the way Republicans are leaving you…

    The debate is supposed to be about the state of Donald Trump’s campaign?

    Donald Trump was remarking on how she didn’t want to talk about the e-mails.

    Sammy Finkelman (643dcd)

  8. Donald Trump has declared himself freed from Republican Party ‘shackles.’

    Mr Trump is a fighter, no doubt about that, and Republican voters were looking for someone who would actually fight. But he doesn’t know when to fight, and doesn’t know whom to fight. He was tougher on Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and Carly Fiorina and even his current lickspittle, Chris Christie, than he has ever been on Mrs Clinton.

    The New York businessman, in securing the GOP nomination and then later in his campaign to defeat Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, has gotten into public fights with a federal judge of Mexican heritage; the parents of a soldier killed in Iraq; and a former Miss Universe beauty queen.

    He’s running for President of the United States, and he’s spending public time squabbling with a beauty queen? There’s only one word to describe that, and that word is stupid!

    The thoroughly disgusted Dana (f6a568)

  9. Do you people believe the democrat run polls even talked to anyone?
    Of course you do, your twits of clinton.

    mg (31009b)

  10. All the news that fits teh sh*t.

    Colonel Haiku (f8bfb8)

  11. The Conservative Treehouse dismembered that WSJ poll. The poll itself was conducted by someone on Hillary’s payroll. A crooked poll for Crooked Hillary and her supporters.

    Link

    Anon Y. Mous (9e4c83)

  12. nsfw

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  13. There’s only one word to describe that, and that word is stupid!

    Oh, I dunno. Moronic, imbecilic, childish, distempered, unhinged, narcissistic, foolish …

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  14. Trump’s a fighter! He fights anyone! The mailman! Parked cars! City Hall! The tide! Nothing too big or too small for our Donnie!

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  15. Anon Y. Mous
    I posted that earlier, you could be moderated, as they dislike Sundance.

    mg (31009b)

  16. You would think that, after all of this, that at least SOME of his original backers would have the decency to admit they were wrong, and that perhaps another candidate would have served their cause better.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  17. But no. Newt triples down.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  18. After the election, I think someone should send a nice gift of ancient seppuku swords to a number of Trump’s early backers.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  19. newt knows more than anyone what gonna happen if that pig get all up in it

    heed the newt

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  20. hf,

    Perhaps we should have nominated a good candidate then.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  21. perhaps we should heed the newt and beat the pig ever think of that

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  22. Mr M wrote:

    There’s only one word to describe that, and that word is stupid!

    Oh, I dunno. Moronic, imbecilic, childish, distempered, unhinged, narcissistic, foolish …

    Correction accepted.

    The Dana willing to look at the facts (f6a568)

  23. Mr M suggested:

    After the election, I think someone should send a nice gift of ancient seppuku swords to a number of Trump’s early backers.

    Here you go.

    The somewhat amused Dana (f6a568)

  24. ll polls have abias toward the Democrat, because Republiicans are suspicious of olls, or the organzitions doing them, but you can estiate the degree to which they are skewed and coreect for that, and one way or another, most polls try to correct for it. Sometimes they converge on a result that is a number of points off.

    The polls may be wrong but they may not be wrong enough for Donald Trump.

    Sammy Finkelman (e806a6)

  25. Look at Zero Hedge for an analysis of this poll.

    Charlie Davis (df08d0) — 10/11/2016 @ 10:52 am

    Don’t see one. All I see is the same Conservative Treehouse piece linked by someone else above. And the only point they make about the numbers in that piece is the precise point I make in the post above, about the sample. And even that may or may not be a valid criticism. After all, we “unskewed” four years ago and if we were right Mitt Romney would be running for rr-election today. Think what you like, but reality is what it is.

    Patterico (20560f)

  26. The ever conflicted Mr. Feet wrote, in response to Kevin suggesting a better candidate was running:

    “….perhaps we should heed the newt and beat the pig ever think of that…”

    Hey, Mr. Feet. I’ll bet “The Newt” would suggest you…you know…vote.

    For a person who supposedly cares about this election, you really don’t, do you?

    I kind of think you want HRC to win, so that you can complain and insult and be oh so clever and vulgar some more.

    Or maybe you are just a intellectually lazy troll.

    Except your earlier posts suggest you have a great deal to offer.

    Too bad.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  27. @Patterico:And the only point they make about the numbers in that piece is the precise point I make in the post above, about the sample.

    That they are currently employed by Hillary’s SuperPAC is something else they mention.

    Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1)

  28. i stand against the pig and i stand tall against the pig ask anybody

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  29. Standing and actually doing something are two different things.

    Chuck Bartowski (bc1c71)

  30. It’s called collecting the kids college money the easy way.

    papertiger (82d7e8)

  31. “The evil spirit lies like a fly at the door of the human heart.”

    — Talmud

    Colonel Haiku (f8bfb8)

  32. Our country is so screwed. Ace is now calling for people to vote for Ryan’s opponent. Trump is going to cost us congress. Hillary will be unopposed.

    Bandit (589b8c)

  33. mitt’s romney’s slicked up lil boytoy made his own bed

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  34. um

    mitt should not have an apostrophe s on it i effed up

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  35. The balance of Dem to Reps is pretty reflective of final result in just looking at Sample %s. Given the affective attachment Dems have to Dems, it’s not surprising that a sample that has 43% Dem ID and 36% Rep ID splits 49 to 42. It’s not a particularly good sample, which is why there is a +/- 4.3% swing. It’s a fair point.

    4 weeks. 28 days. 672 hours. 40,320 minutes… and so on… tick, tick, tick…

    “The numbers, Mister Keith! The numbers!” – “Marooned’ – 1969

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  36. All the Real Republicans are now urging you to vote Democrat.

    http://ace.mu.nu/archives/366273.php

    Patterico (20560f)

  37. That they are currently employed by Hillary’s SuperPAC is something else they mention.

    It is! That is not about the numbers. Read what I said again.

    So the idea is they cooked the numbers two weeks ago to show them running even so this would look more dramatic?

    Patterico (20560f)

  38. That they are currently employed by Hillary’s SuperPAC is something else they mention.

    The WSJ has certainly been a disappointment over the last two decades. To lend their name to such disreputable undertakings as this poll has cost them at least one long term subscriber, (admittedly a number of years ago, this is not their first failure.) They continue to attempt to cash in on a reputation that is no longer deserved. It started during the Clinton era when the editorial board would say one thing, and the rest of the paper another. Now they are in sync. The link shows their pollster is a paid consultant to a Hillary! PAC, with a September billing of $220,500 to Priorities USA Action.

    It’s like so much of what’s gone wrong. But it’s there for us all to see. If only a few more would see it.

    BobStewartatHome (a52abe)

  39. Mr Bartowski wrote, concerning Mr Feet’s non-voting:

    Standing and actually doing something are two different things.

    A little less talk and a lot more action.

    The country fan Dana (f6a568)

  40. When the polls are going against your candidate, argue that the polls are skewed.

    Chuck Bartowski (bc1c71)

  41. Follow the money.

    Colonel Haiku (f8bfb8)

  42. i tell you what I think there

    this nevertrumper poopy-twaddle nonsense?

    it does NOT come from a place of love

    that’s why Mr. Trump gonna win

    now if you excuse me i feel a praise song comin on

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  43. oh my goodness poor billy boo boo

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  44. I like how all the angry, disaffected folks who have for the last 20 years claimed that they voted for the GOPe candidate, by holding their nose since the candidate wasn’t “conservative” enough because of reasons like SCOTUS, Guns, free speech and taxes. Now tell those of us who think Trump was a loser, has been a loser and will more than likely flush the GOP away by the end of 2016; that we have to hold our noses and vote for a candidate who appears with every flip and flop to be about as conservative as member of the aristocracy in Congress now. Why do we have to hold our noses? The same reasons that the GOP HQ has sent mailers out for over 20 years, SCOTUS, Gun, taxes, culture.
    Congrats Trumpkins. You are now what you have despised and oh your Great White Hope (or is it Great Orange Hope) has effectively flushed culture down the toilet with his “locker room banter”. Since it was locker room banter that was said by Martin Bashir, Bill Maher, Chris Matthews, Alex Pareene, Glenn Greenwald about folks like Michelle Malkin, Joni Ernst, Mia Love, the Palins, and a slew of other conservative women. They deserve that sort of speech directed at them right? So what if we sacrifice a few pawns or a knight or two on the chess board to get ourselves into checkmate?

    Charles (eed5b5)

  45. CULTURE OF CORRUPTION: “Is this a FOB”: State Department prioritized Clinton cronies for access. “Hillary Clinton and her campaign have repeatedly insisted that Clinton Foundation donors and other associates of the family never received any special treatment from the State Department during Hillary’s tenure as Secretary of State. E-mails gleaned from FOIA actions tell a much different story. While the US government tried to respond to a 2010 humanitarian crisis in Haiti, State spent its time sifting through access requests to identify ‘FOBs’ — Friends of Bill — by way of the Clinton Foundation’s top executives, ABC News reports.”

    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/246092/

    Colonel Haiku (f8bfb8)

  46. Follow the frickin’ money.

    Colonel Haiku (f8bfb8)

  47. If corruption was cancer, the Clintons would have been dead, buried and their souls roasting in the deepest, hottest corner of Hell years ago.

    Colonel Haiku (f8bfb8)

  48. Were

    Colonel Haiku (f8bfb8)

  49. @39

    How can they be disreputable when they are supposedly owned by the demon spawn of conservative media conglomerates? He supposedly has been a fan of Trump since day one if you believe the conglomerate he owns and the rest of the MSM. Unless of course, you have been in the echo chamber for so long that you will believe any bit of information right or wrong.

    Charles (eed5b5)

  50. I have been a lurker for years on Ace’s blog. No more. He whines about those who don’t support Trump and now he is actively calling for people to vote for a democrat. Trump is going to lose and our only hope as a country is for Republicans to maintain control of Congress. The Trump supporters now want to give Hillary congress as well. I will probably vote for Trump just because of Hillary but his supporters make me question that decision daily.

    Bandit (589b8c)

  51. ASSANGE DRONES HILLARY!
    Releases Another 1,000 Emails From Podesta…
    His UFO Obsession…
    How Saudi Arabia And Qatar ARE Funding ISIS…
    MEDIA LOVEFEST…
    UNIVISION chief urged Clinton to hit harder…
    CNBC John Harwood Advises Campaign [And he was debate moderator?!]…
    NYT Gave Hillary Veto Power On Quotes!
    BOSTON GLOBE coordinated to max her ‘presence’ in paper…
    SHE WAS TOLD WHEN TO SMILE…
    CHELSEA’S SERIOUS CONCERNS ABOUT ‘FOUNDATION’ CONFLICTS…
    Aide calls daughter ‘spoiled brat’…
    BRAZILE BUSTED: DNC Chief Shared CNN Town Hall Questions…
    Used Benghazi as distraction from email scandal…
    CAMPAIGN DISCUSSIONS WITH DOJ!
    Just as… State Dept Coordinated Email Release…
    WHITE HOUSE: NO COMMENT ON COMMUNICATION DURING INVESTIGATION…

    Colonel Haiku (f8bfb8)

  52. Pat hit on it.

    I was certain the actual turnout of GOP voters would far exceed the LV assumptions baked into most of the polls. Gallup had the highest GOP turnout, and Romney with a 1-point advantage in their final poll. They are now out of the presidential polling business after many decades.

    My sense is that DJT’s very bad week drove the LV ratio significantly higher for the Dems – which is reflected in the new numbers.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  53. @52- Yeah, the Harwood input smells but that Brazile turd truly, truly stinks.

    Quick, CNN, run that Trump tape some more. CNN responds by saying they didn’t give away any questions. Leaving Brazile to twist in the wind. A Wikilynching?

    Meanwhile, with a month left to the election and Maudie stumping in Florida with Uncle Albert, Obama– the jackass who cancelled Constellation to return to the moon– tries to sucker Floridians with chatter about sending Americans to Mars by 2030, long after leaving office and try to fund it– with the help of SpaceX– a firm that to date has not even tried to fly anybody safely into and back from space–let alone to Mars. More likely Mars, Pennsylvania.

    “Bang, zoom! To the moon, Alice!” – Ralph Kramden [Jackie Gleason] ‘The Honeymooners’ DuMont TV

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  54. My uneducated guess is that he’s behind by 5-6 percent.

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  55. @53. The blizzard of polling data has become so much chaff for political warfare anymore, particularly within the 30 days window to the election– and essentially fodder for spinners. The changes in technology and so forth– or just lying– makes it sketchy stuff anymore. Romney learned that as you noted– along with Gallup. President Dewey, too.

    The only data that matters now are the absentee ballots requested/sent/returned– and the weather conditions around the country on November 8 for turnout.

    “Snow! It won’t be long before we’ll all be there with snow…”- Bob Wallace [Bing Crosby] ‘White Christmas’ 1954

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  56. Well, well, well.

    It looks like little Anthony Fremont Trump may not be able to grotesquely punish all the people thinking bad thoughts about him.

    If only that meant the world would be a better place.

    L.N. Smithee (b84cf6)

  57. i stand against the pig and i stand tall against the pig ask anybody

    I bet he doesn’t donate either.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  58. Ace is now calling for people to vote for Ryan’s opponent.

    Ace needs to go find his hinges. They’re in the next county by now.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  59. BTW, there is no way that Ryan loses. Trump’s people went after him in the primary and he won something like 85-15. I guess they can try to get the Democrats to vote against him, but the Republicans don’t seem inclined.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  60. A steady diet of Valu-Rite vodka and fried hobo will do that to a person.

    nk (dbc370)

  61. Since this race can’t get any weirder, I have the following humble suggestion:

    Suppose Romney announced that he was standing as an alternative Republican nominee for Electoral College consideration. State parties/legislatures/however-the-state-does-it should choose electors pledge to him, not Trump. Unpledged electors should declare for him before the election.

    After all, the ballot choice is only for the state’s electors, NOT for a candidate, so it does not matter who the F is printed on the ballot.

    Now, this might mean that the election goes to the House, which at this point is a good thing. If Hillary still gets 270 votes, then this doesn’t matter.

    Besides, it would be fun to watch the debate commission squirm over who gets to debate.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  62. New Reuters Poll

    They use a DRI split of 50/37/24 to get a 45 Clinton, 37 Trump result. NeverClinton/Trump is currently getting 18. A peculiar result of polls showing a very large lead for Clinton may be lower turnout by very reluctant Trump preventers who also despise Clinton. If she is ‘safely ahead’, then there’s no need to vote for the witch.

    Rick Ballard (b9de6e)

  63. For 8 years now I have been paid in cash, gold, silver or trade for my services. As little taxes as possible is what you will get from me. It truly is sad to see the country in such turmoil, but hey I am going to stoke up a Cuban cigar and drink a fake beer. I apologize for all of my tacky responses and senseless name calling. I will try to be less pitiful in the future.
    Go cubs.

    mg (31009b)

  64. The ballot choice is for the candidate.
    The legislature instructs its electors, whoever they might be, to vote for the pair who got choiced the most.

    nk (dbc370)

  65. The legislature instructs its electors, whoever they might be, to vote for the pair who got choiced the most.

    Usually. They don’t have to, and if was an issue I don’t know how it would play out.

    The GOP may be looking for a white knight in a week.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  66. What are the odds on Preibus resigning by the weekend?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  67. Stuck with Ryan for 3 more terms – Wisconsin might lose a district after 2020, and “hood” Milwaukee CD (Gwen Moore) will need Kenosha and Racine to keep weight. That might takeaway enough mods, Sensenbrenner might hang it up and his replacement can keep the other parts. Its dependent on a good replacement or Walker doing a third term and doing the right thing.

    urbanleftbehind (473dea)

  68. All of this corruption, pay for play, election rigging, admissions of transporting Democrat voters all over to cast several votes, the list goes on and on and yet several posters here continue to spread dissension and invective.

    For shame, D-baggers. For shame.

    Colonel Haiku (f8bfb8)

  69. Pat Cadel and Sundance are two people that know how to decipher polls.
    Seriously, do you think they actually poll people? Remember they are the msfm.

    mg (31009b)

  70. — Good evening, sir or madam, this is the MSU polling service and we would like to ask you two questions about the Presidential race.

    First question: Would you rather
    1) vote for Hillary Clinton, or
    2) stick your hand in a running meat grinder?

    Second question: Would you rather
    1) vote for Donald Trump or
    2) win $500 million dollars in the lottery?

    Thank you for your time.

    nk (dbc370)

  71. There is no chance that the GOP will be transformed into a “white people’s party.” Besides, there already is one, the vestiges of the Wallacite American Party, now called the Constitution or American Independent Party. It’s tiny of course, as most fringes are. But they’re just SURE that there’s more adherents to be had in the GOP.

    If that’s your deal, start walking.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  72. It’s called collecting the kids college money the easy way.

    What does that mean, papertiger?

    Patterico (bcf524)

  73. Patterico,

    Nate Silver considers the PRRI poll to be an outlier due to the response by women. He provides some decent illustrations of how the disparity of response would play out and concludes by noting the actual current disparity in support by women in comparison to Romney’s support in 2012.

    I find it rather fitting women will turn the Grabber into the Loser.

    Rick Ballard (b9de6e)

  74. If the media does it’s job, WikiLeaks should fry Maudie’s bacon.

    “H-hello, I would like to speak to the president of the Ajax Broadcasting Company.” – Porky Pig [Mel Blanc] WB cartoon, 1950

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  75. Nate Silver considers the PRRI poll to be an outlier due to the response by women.

    Maybe. Let’s keep watching and see how women split in polls in coming days.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  76. The nice thing about having no partisan worries in this election is that I can truly call them as I see them. Because I truly don’t care.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  77. If only DSCADCCACAXXXX was reading the script from the aptly named “Intolerance” (1916).

    Then I could turn off the audio and not have deal with this guy who is nuttier than squirrel poop.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  78. YouTube now has the full SNL Cold Open skit up.

    nk (dbc370)

  79. I don’t know, nk. I’m no Trump fan, but the whole SNL “promote a partisan agenda” business has always been very clear.

    It’s also topped with a “we’re so cool” sneer that annoys me no end.

    Because the majority of people performing in those skits could not pick their congresscritter out of a lineup.

    But they are cool!

    And that’s what matters, sadly.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  80. I needed a break from the ball game. The Cubs got off to a bad start in San Francisco again tonight.

    nk (dbc370)

  81. SNL is big with folks who’ve forgotten what “funny” is.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  82. @78.

    =hic= Go Cubs!

    “My advice to you is to start drinking heavily.” – John ‘Bluto’ Blutarsky [John Belushi] ‘Animal House’ 1978

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  83. I don’t know, dude. For some reason, you always remind me of this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4roxM8hUMk

    Simon Jester (eb75fd)

  84. @82. With often one weekend a month off (holidays), 5 days (M-F) to write and rehearsals into Saturday afternoon to Dress, you’d think it could be better.

    Lorne Michaels has been phoning it in for years now. It was Fey’s idea to corral Baldwin to play Trump. A misfire. When they keep going outside the hired cast for character players it signals a decline.

    ‘Live, from New York, it’s Saturday Night’… sometimes.

    [This program was taped from an earlier broadcast.] NBC Entertainment disclaimer

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  85. Poll’s been updated to include responses from after the debate.

    Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1)


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