Patterico's Pontifications

12/12/2015

Cruz Firmly on Top in Iowa: Des Moines Register Poll

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 5:31 pm



NBC News: Cruz Catapults to Top in Iowa in New Poll, Leapfrogging Trump:

Ted Cruz catapulted to frontrunner status in Iowa on Saturday night in a new poll, giving the Texas senator 31 percent of the GOP support in the state and placing him now 10 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump.

In the new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll, Cruz, considered the new evangelical favorite, leapfrogged the candidate he has continually avoided to cross paths with throughout the campaign.

The poll, conducted by longtime, respected Iowa pollster Ann Selzer, is seen as a bellwether for the state of the race, where voters will get the first chance at picking the Republican nominee at the Iowa caucus in less than two months on Feb. 1.

Cruz does not support affirmative action, single-payer health care, or any other leftist claptrap — and he never will. If he wins Iowa, he is also the candidate who can claim the mantra of “winner.” This could change the entire dynamic of the race. I think it will.

68 Responses to “Cruz Firmly on Top in Iowa: Des Moines Register Poll”

  1. Nice!

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  2. iowa?

    srsly?

    i got yer iowa right here

    happyfeet (831175)

  3. Good news.

    Trump feels Cruz nipping at his heels:

    Trump also on Friday night foreshadowed a poor polling result, telling the crowd: “Every time the Des Moines Register does a poll, I always do badly.” He added, “I only like polls that treat me well.”

    Dana (86e864)

  4. my favorite wee small pickleheads is from iowa btw

    still thinking on their xmas

    maybe gambino’s king cakes?

    it’ll dazzle their wee small picklehead eyes yes yes?

    happyfeet (831175)

  5. ok yeah i’m a do that later

    they have an xmas king cake

    but i don’t have my dux in a row for where to send

    happyfeet (831175)

  6. I don’t trust polls anymore. Once upon a time they were run to genuinely obtain an honest snapshot of where the race stood on a particular day. They don’t do it for those reasons these days. Now they use them to push an agenda, and frame the questions to get the answers they want.

    G Joubert (0399e8)

  7. Great news, and I think Steve King should get a little credit.

    mg (31009b)

  8. Cruz has demonstrated that he will follow through on what he promised whether others like it or not.

    MD in Philly (not in Philly) (deca84)

  9. I wonder how many buses Trump will bring to Iowa. Then he just has to round up his folks from the dive bars.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  10. Great news, and I think Steve King should get a little credit.

    For Trump? Maybe Stephen King.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  11. Well, this should make a few of Trump’s Strumpets implode.

    Trump made the statement that he would exit the race when his poll numbers began to sag. I’m curious to see if he keeps that promise as the slipping numbers begin piling up.

    Bill H (2a858c)

  12. I wonder how well Trump will do in caucus states anyway. It’s one thing to tell something to a pollster, or in a secret ballot, but standing up in front of your neighbors and declare you’re for the buffoon will whittle the numbers some.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  13. Stephen King peaked with IT

    and that was like forever ago

    plus he’s hard to look at

    and also “maine” is involved

    srsly

    wtf

    maine?

    when is maine ever actually relevant in real life if ur not a steamy steamy lobsterpot bimbo waiting to be shucked like a

    bimbo

    yeah who you know you are

    SUSAN

    yes susan i hate you more than expired coupons

    deal with it

    happyfeet (831175)

  14. maybe, it isn’t really a surprise, though, cruz has strong support among evangelicals, gun rights activist, tax reform proponents, not to mention his push against robertscare

    narciso (732bc0)

  15. Kevin, you’re getting the Democrat caucus confused with the Republican caucus.

    The Dems have the process where you publically declare your allegiance, and as candidates are judged to be “unviable” supporters of the losers either take their ball & go home or realign with one of the survivors and stick around for the next round. Eventually, they get a “winner take all” at each caucus polling place. So the vote tallies you see on the (D) side are based on each precinct going exclusively for one candidate. That’s why you saw so damn many of the “also-rans” in ’08 come out of the night with 0.0%. It’s not that they had no supporters at the beginning of the night, it’s that they didn’t have enough to make the cut.

    Republicans listen to pitches from a representative for each candidate (I got to make the pitch for Fred Thompson in Madison County, IA back in ’08), then they take one single vote. Those votes are then tallied statewide and the winner is the one who has the most votes.

    Russ from Winterset (f7f216)

  16. “It” sucked balls, happy. King peaked with the first 2 chapters of The Dark Tower series. Once he started bringing in characters from “The Stand” and wrote himself into the story, the shark was well and fully jumped. There were flashes of brilliance in that series, but the ending was about as appealing as an Afghani goat beauty pageant.

    Russ from Winterset (f7f216)

  17. Should clarify: If one candidate wins a majority of the votes on the first ballot at an Iowa Caucus Democratic precinct, there is no realignment and second ballot needed. Those are only where no candidate manages to get to 50.1%.

    Russ from Winterset (f7f216)

  18. I never got around to that series, now I know why,

    narciso (732bc0)

  19. I’ll start off by disclosing my bias: I’m a Cruz-leaner, so I see this as good news. However, it’s one poll, so I’m not putting much faith into it. If other polls arrive that show anything like this one, then I’ll put more faith in it.

    As for Iowa… Huckabee won it in 2008, Santorum in 2012, so it’s not much of a bellweather. Only time will tell.

    Arizona CJ (331a26)

  20. Cruz leads in polls with regular republican caucus goers. Trump leads in polls with people who don’t regularly caucus. It doesn’t really matter neither can beat hillary thanks to demographics (100,000 minorities turn voting age every month and have id’s)

    nate (935870)

  21. I still believe it’s unlikely that Trump will be in the race by the time of the Iowa caucuses, much less the New Hampshire primary. But if he is, it will be very interesting indeed to see how closely his performance in the actual events matches the pre-event polling. I freely admit to having almost no objectivity at all when it comes to Trump, and this may be wishful thinking; but I suspect that for a variety of reasons, his actual performance will fall far, far, far short of the polls’ predictions.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  22. Off topic but about those Syrian refugees Obeyme is insisting we take, not a good idea it is!

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/12/breaking-syrians-arrested-in-swiss-terror-plot-were-transporting-toxic-gas-for-attack/

    Yoda (feee21)

  23. There are pockets of committed and knowledgeable voters who’re nominally supporting a large handful of candidates polling in the single digits who’re likely to be switching allegiances soon, either because their candidates formally drop out or simply because their odds are so remote that not even someone previously “sold” on them can stick with them. Those tiny few abandoning Pataki or Graham or Kasich may move to Rubio; but I think Sen. Cruz is well-positioned to pick up most of the voters who’re abandoning all of the others. I don’t think Trump will get any of those voters, because anyone susceptible to his schtick is already on board his bandwagon.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  24. Russ, is the GOP side a secret ballot? Trump would do best in a secret ballot (unless they have double-secret ballots, of course).

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  25. IOWA is way mo powerful than the trump

    IOWA GOT CORN

    IOWA GOT
    ALSO CORN

    PLUS ALSO IOWA GOT CORN

    WE GOT CORN BI!!TCHES

    WE R IOWA

    trump need not apply

    happyfeet (831175)

  26. Beldar, I think it possible that Kasich voters could go to Trump since they have already demonstrated their capacity for judgement.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  27. I’m hoping Cruz can pull it off. And I agree, Trump has basically gotten all the dunderheads he’s going to get. Those not already cheerleading for him won’t pick up the pom-poms.

    John Hitchcock (272c27)

  28. It’s also good for Cruz that Trump is in the race. The eGOP may hate Cruz, but staring into the Trump abyss may have focused their minds wonderfully.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  29. I think a lot of the Kasich supporters are remembering when he wrote the Gingrich Budget that Clinton got credit for.

    John Hitchcock (272c27)

  30. I’d like to see the field cleared a bit by having Graham, Pataki, Santorum, Kasich and Graham step down, and then see where their supporters go. Also, as Carson is starting to sink, Cruz is going up in the polls, so clearly he’ll get those supporters.

    Dana (86e864)

  31. trump got DUNDERTURDZ

    (needs heaping spoonful of IOWA :))

    whaaaaaa?

    SO NOT HAPNING

    (:()

    (suck it trump suckk it like a nippal)

    (reely hrd!!!)

    happyfeet (831175)

  32. So Graham has to step down twice? But yeah, I think a lot of Carson’s supporters will gravitate toward Cruz and Rubio. I don’t see them moving toward Christie or Bush and mostly not toward Trump.

    John Hitchcock (272c27)

  33. he’s a rank misogynist moron, and not of the Horde kind.

    narciso (732bc0)

  34. I’m going to have to get the tattoo rmvd.


    “Where are the ethanol people?” Trump asked a crowd of about 2,000 for his presidential campaign rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds. “With the ethanol, really, (Cruz has) got to come a long way, because he’s right now he’s for the oil.”

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/12/11/trump-bashes-cruz-ethanol-des-moines/77190002/

    False note for me on the day the Paris COP21 sell out folds up the tent.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  35. there were also aspersions against cruz’s faith, which are more reflective of his character,

    narciso (732bc0)

  36. Well then. That’s it for Trump! His house of cards is finally starting to fall!
    This time, it will really happen!

    School Marm (f96753)

  37. Cruz/Fiorina 2016!

    Seriously, I think that if no single candidate has enough delegates to secure the nomination on the 1st ballot, that Cruz will win on the 3rd or 4th ballot. BECAUSE, he will be seen by the “elite leadership” of the GOP as the only alternative to Trump, whom scare the ever loving shyte out of them.

    Trump is merely the symptom of just how tone deaf the GOP leadership has become over the past 2 decades. Because of their insularity, the base of the party is furious with the leadership…because the leadership just ain’t listening. Last week’s sniping fest @ Trump is a prime example. They all jumped on the Democrats/MSM bandwagon to attack Trump’s proposal that there be a moratorium on Muslim immigration…they should have kept their damn mouths closed and let Liberals be shrill and show just how much they don’t care about protecting this country…

    Trump, while he might well be a buffoon, has done a valuable service to Conservatives. He has literally shattered the Overton Window of what has been considered to be polite political conversation. For the past 40 years, that has been decided by a media that is overwhelmingly tilted to the Left. This year, he’s put pretty much everything on the table that has been taboo to discuss. For that alone, we should thank him…

    …but theleadership of the GOP had better start paying attention to the concerns of the base of the party, or else they will end up leading…no one but themselves…because at the moment, while the Democrats are essentially in disaray, the GOP is about ready to fracture with a large portion moving into a genuinely conservative political party, and not one that merely pays lip-service to conservative principles.

    Rich Vail (015de0)

  38. But yeah, I think a lot of Carson’s supporters will gravitate toward Cruz and Rubio.

    Did Huckabee drop out? A lot of Carson’s support is single-issue Christians.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  39. The Iowa poll questions and results are here. There are some intriguing aspects: For instance, 24% of likely caucus-goers define themselves as Tea Party followers and 32% as evangelicals, which is probably why Cruz is doing so well.

    There are also some surprises: 49% said they “favor a single-payer health care plan instead of the current law.” That’s a shock, or did they misunderstand the question as being about replacing ObamaCare?

    DRJ (15874d)

  40. Topics 1-14 at the debate this week? Ethanol.

    Watch for McCain and Graham go after Cruz’ lack of international experience like he just stole their last piece of bread.

    It is gonna get seeeeeeeeriously rough for Cruz across the board now. Buckle up!

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  41. Oh, I forgot about Huckabee. Polling below 3%.

    Dana (86e864)

  42. yes, that does seem like an off question, alo with the sending 20,000 troops to Syria, Trump only went slightly down, whereas Carson deflated seriously, and Fiorina lost a fair amount,

    narciso (732bc0)

  43. Bob Dole says he probably won’t vote if Cruz is the GOP nominee. It’s hilarious to see establishment Republicans threaten to stay home after years of telling conservatives the only way to stop the Democrats is to vote.

    DRJ (15874d)

  44. It doesn’t really matter neither can beat hillary thanks to demographics (100,000 minorities turn voting age every month and have id’s)

    If I really despise a city or country and want to help ensure it tanking, I’d hope that its political inner-workings and top politicians become as leftwing and crooked as possible. A perfect formula for that is Hillary extending the eight trashy years of Obama.

    Think of the messes in areas like Argentina, Venezuela, France and, closer to home, communities like Detroit, and the decadent liberalism that those places have bought into (at least up until recently). Great examples of how to nurture a big flop. So a Sharia-loving, anti-Western jihadist or a North Korean or Cuban “commie” should pray that this nation continue on its leftwing path.

    Mark (f713e4)

  45. We will all suffer if that happens, Mark. You can understand that will be a consequence without wishing for it to happen.

    DRJ (15874d)

  46. The Hill: If he misses the cutoff for the top-tier CNN debate, Rand Paul will announce Tuesday whether he will quit.

    DRJ (15874d)

  47. Bob Dole says he probably won’t vote if Cruz is the GOP nominee.

    We will all suffer if that happens, Mark.

    DRJ, that article about Republicans like Bob Dole is alarming and even rather disgusting. I often make fun of “squish-squish” but I now realize just how serious and idiotic that condition is. Certainly when someone along the lines of Dole (ie, a Republican not notorious for leaning left or being too much of a go-along-to-get-along butt kisser of liberals like Obama) is foolish enough to think that Jeb Bush has a better chance than Trump or Cruz to beat Hillary. Simply put, Dole is both tactically and ideologically a tired old dope.

    All the liberals/leftists of America combined with the squish-squishy members of this nation (some of them masquerading or labeling themselves as “centrists”) may ensure that we’re all going to suffer.

    Mark (f713e4)

  48. The same way the most damage we will suffer in the coming(?) war with the RITS (Human rats, but this one means Radical Islamist Terrorists) will occur from within. Think sleeper cells.

    Same goes for our political fate. It will take a cleanse by Cruz (there is nobody else available at this time) to deal with the infestation of statists wearing constitutionalist/conservative colors. The GOP simply must be captured and undergo a massive extermination of the sell-outs.

    If we truly are at war, the job will be much easier as Cruz can play the loyalty card as he keeps the internal enemies close – precisely as Lincoln did.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  49. With the republican party made up of Ryan type sell outs, I am afraid they will give the farm away before the election. Ryan needs to go to hell.
    Dinner with piglosi, I wonder who wore the pantsuit? And the beard does make him look like a man, too bad he can’t act like one, with balls.

    mg (31009b)

  50. What was Dole doing even talking to MSNBC,
    And I bet Dole wanted Trump to promise not to run as an independent…
    I don’t think Dole is very relevant, but to the degree he reflects the establishment, terrible.

    MD in Philly (not in Philly) (deca84)

  51. Anyone late to the party can read comments # 6, 19, 30, 39, and 43 and be reasonably up to speed. That’s my take, but it’s your call. #s 6 and 39 are especially informative.

    The Des Moines Register’s (editorial board) bias against The Donald is palpable – they’d endorse Lois Learner for President, or Susan Rice before considering that skewing the sample to get the predetermined “results” isn’t journalism, it’s propaganda masquerading as news.

    ropelight (e7db15)

  52. Ethanol mandates and subsidies are bad things. They’re worse than sugar tariffs and subsidies, which are bad things. And Trump supports the ethanol subsidies, and likely, the mandates. I have no doubt Trump supports the sugar tariffs and subsidies.

    For Trump to attack Cruz on ethanol subsidies, and on his Christian nature, should disqualify Trump in many trumpeteer eyes. I hope it does.

    John Hitchcock (850942)

  53. Pamela Geller (12/13/2015) charges the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) deleted intel records relating to notorious jihadists linked to San Bernardino Islamic terrorists Sayed Farook and Tashfeen Malik, because they wanted to protect the “civil liberties” of members of the caliphate-supporting network…

    ropelight (e7db15)

  54. Ya wanna know how dishonest leftist media can be? Just now on Meet the DePressed the odious Daniel Shore claimed that Donald Trump was the Recruiter-in-Chief for ISIS…What a despicable turd that guy is….

    Clearly, the Left is scared to death of The Donald, they can’t hide it, and it flashes like a neon sign on a midnight desert horizon.

    Additionally, the odious Chuck Todd followed up Shore’s despicably partisan smear by claiming that 64% of Trump’s supporters didn’t attend college, 61% don’s go to church weekly, and 54% earn less than $75,00/yr. While of the other GOPe candidates Bush and Rubio’s supporters 56% have college degrees, and of Evangelical voters who support either Carson or Cruz 56% attend church weekly.

    The message couldn’t be clearer, according to the Leftwing media Trump is backed by stupid, faithless, low income malcontents. While the GOPe’s candidates are smarter than the average bear, and the bible thumpers are solidly behind Carson and Cruz.

    Obviously, the Left wants to run against the GOPe’s Bush/Rubio ticket. It’s Hillary’s only chance to win. Against Trump she gets creamed and they all know it, even if quite a few commenters here deny the obvious.

    ropelight (e7db15)

  55. And what exactly did he do to get this “catapult”?

    Pardon my skepticism.

    formwiz (6b3a5a)

  56. If Trump is the nominee, the Democrats win. Trump is a Democrat. He holds Democrat positions. Even if the uncritical buffoon trumpeteers don’t want to open their eyes to see it.

    John Hitchcock (850942)

  57. Ballots for the Iowa caucus have always been secret on the Republican side.

    Russ from Winterset (f7f216)

  58. Maybe you could say that Trump is a 2001 post 9/11 Democrat in actuality
    and he just looks like a conservative by comparison.

    MD in Philly (not in Philly) (deca84)

  59. Hitch and others can say that Trump is a Democrat till the cows come home. I don’t care. If it takes a Democrat to fight ISIS, I’ll vote for a Democrat – I’ll vote for anyone who’ll step-up and defend America from all enemies foreign and domestic.

    If the GOPe hasn’t got the stomach for the fight to defend Western Civilization from 6th century barbarians then what in holy hell justifies their continued existence?

    Leaders must lead, and if they don’t or won’t they’er aiders and abettor of the enemy, and should be treated as such – with prejudice.

    ropelight (e7db15)

  60. If Trump is the nominee, the Democrats win

    In effect, your characterizing the electorate as fairly liberal or leftwing, at least based on surveys that indicate growing numbers of younger Americans increasingly favoring liberals and liberalism and — at least based on the conventional wisdom from the Republican faithful — that Ted Cruz is too conservative for the general election. The left (and regrettably this is true in the eyes of staunch conservatives, myself included) can not point to Trump’s history, full of and intertwined with the limousine liberalism of Manhattan, and peg him as a rightwing boogeyman. Trump is full of squish-squish. Cruz is not.

    he just looks like a conservative by comparison.

    What is both fascinating and sickening about the comments from Bob Dole posted at the link from DRJ is that, in spite of the “centrist” point of the US’s socio-political scene in 2015 being way, way more liberal than it has ever been (eg, gay marriage is the wonderful new law of the land!!! xoxox—so now you’re a heartless meanie if you want merely civil partnerships), they reflect the biases of a traditional non-liberal ending up very, very squishy, so much so such biases deem that Cruz is too rightwing.

    I’ve often joked about this country ending up a bigger version of Argentina, but I see that erosion as reaching a point where such a scenario is not merely sarcasm as much as it’s hard, fast reality.

    Mark (f713e4)

  61. I just saw an ad on A&E for a show “Who Is Donald Trump?” on Wednesday at 10pm. How is it fair to be doing specials for a presidential candidate but not others?

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie™ (f4eb27)

  62. If Trump is the nominee, the Democrats win

    Horseshit and red wine! Hillary isn’t electable, she’s got the blood of dead Americans in Benghazi on her hands, she’s hidden her emails extorting foreign governments for “donations” to the Clinton Massage Parlor and Intern Training Academy, her closest associates are operatives of the Muslim Brotherhood, and she’s a serial liar and a greedy money-grubbing Saul Alinski communist whore.

    Hillary couldn’t get elected dog catcher. Any GOP candidate who didn’t split the party will win going away (think it over Rubio and Cruz supporters, your candidate is the one who loses to the Hildabeast). The threat of Hillary over Trump is a completely hollow threat, repeated by the supporters of marginal candidates hoping to avoid the obvious ascendancy of The Donald.

    ropelight (e7db15)

  63. NONSENSE.
    The DesMoines Register is FAR LEFT WING and will do ANYTHING to stop Trump. ANYTHING.

    Kauf Buch (f09fc3)

  64. Interesting that Cruz is taking a nice, non-combative approach toward other GOP presidential candidates, in stark contrast to how he treated opponents in Congress. This is somewhat reassuring, and shows that Cruz does know how to display a modicum off collegiality.

    Andrew (c1796a)

  65. Dark Tower I just made a hash out of I think I read like maybe four of the books without actually finishing any of them and then just kind of avoided it after that

    happyfeet (831175)

  66. There are also some surprises: 49% said they “favor a single-payer health care plan instead of the current law.” That’s a shock, or did they misunderstand the question as being about replacing ObamaCare?

    I think it’s a reflection of the ignorance of the electorate combined with a disdain for ObamaCare. Many of the people who answered the question that way probably hate ObamaCare and don’t even understand what single-payer is. So they respond by saying they favor single-payer because they can tell that is not ObamaCare.

    Of course, this is Obama’s plan. He WANTS ObamaCare to fail so he can replace it with single-payer. The plan is, have ObamaCare fail and then blame that on “the market” and assert that we all need to get some more government “help.” This poll suggests that this strategem may work on poorly informed voters who will be easily misled as to WHY ObamaCare is such a disaster to begin with.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  67. NONSENSE.
    The DesMoines Register is FAR LEFT WING and will do ANYTHING to stop Trump. ANYTHING.

    Kauf Buch (f09fc3) — 12/13/2015 @ 12:28 pm

    If they’re far left wing then they’d be trying to stop Cruz, not Trump, who’s a liberal.

    Gerald A (949d7d)

  68. give them time, they will try to take out Cruz in short order,

    narciso (732bc0)


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