Patterico's Pontifications

3/18/2014

A Pilot Explains What Probably Happened to the Malaysian Airliner

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 10:59 pm

This is the best, if least dramatic, theory I have read on the disappearance of the Malaysian airliner:

There has been a lot of speculation about Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Terrorism, hijacking, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN; it’s almost disturbing. I tend to look for a simpler explanation, and I find it with the 13,000-foot runway at Pulau Langkawi.

We know the story of MH370: A loaded Boeing 777 departs at midnight from Kuala Lampur, headed to Beijing. A hot night. A heavy aircraft. About an hour out, across the gulf toward Vietnam, the plane goes dark, meaning the transponder and secondary radar tracking go off. Two days later we hear reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar, meaning the plane is tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the Strait of Malacca.

The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shah1 was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us. They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was closer.

But what went wrong? The pilot has a simple answer: a fire.

For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.

There are two types of fires. An electrical fire might not be as fast and furious, and there may or may not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility, given the timeline, that there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires, it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes, this happens with underinflated tires. Remember: Heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long-run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. Once going, a tire fire would produce horrific, incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks, but this is a no-no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter, but this will last only a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one in my flight bag, and I still carry one in my briefcase when I fly.)

What I think happened is the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. You will find it along that route–looking elsewhere is pointless.

I think this is the right answer by default until someone proves otherwise. It makes sense. It is simple and not outlandish.

Won’t sell many papers, though. AH HELL IT WAS PROBABLY A TERRORIST HIJACKING LET’S ALL PANIC AAAUUUGGGHHH!!!!!!

UPDATE: Many commenters say this scenario is inconsistent with the voice transmissions. Could be. I don’t claim to be an expert on this. I just tend to look for the simplest explanation that explains the facts. If that’s not this theory, then so be it.

252 Responses to “A Pilot Explains What Probably Happened to the Malaysian Airliner”

  1. Ding. I think this incident will entertain many for years to come.

    Ag80 (eb6ffa)

  2. If it was a terrorist hijacking, it would have already hit something or demands would have been made. The plane’s gone.

    R.I.P. to the probably brave and competent pilots and crew, and the passengers.

    Former Conservative (b6f68e)

  3. I’m not feeling it.

    The score remains Mega Shark: 1 Malaysia Airlines: 0.

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  4. And the reason the plane suddenly climbed to 45,000 feet?

    aunursa (7014a8)

  5. And the reason the plane suddenly climbed to 45,000 feet?

    It was also avoiding a SAM. (Keep up.)

    Former Conservative (1d1faf)

  6. Actually, could they try to get to a very low oxygen altitude in a desperate attempt to put out a fire, especially a tire fire?

    Former Conservative (1d1faf)

  7. The last voice communication happened well after the transponder was off. No way the pilots would have been ignorant of a fire, nor of massive electronics failure in the cockpit by then.

    I can see where in a hijack situation the pilot may have made an original attempt to get down to this airstrip. However, this goes against the author’s main contention that this was simply a mechanical.

    His dismissal of the disabling, or even killing, of the souls in the main cabin as a motivation for the rapid ascent to 42K does not well serve his thesis.

    To me, Occam’s Razor points to pilot or co-pilot suicide.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  8. The one part of this theory that seems to make sense is thatthe turn left might have been an attempt to go to an airport.

    For that to be true, the story about the change in flight path being pre-programmed, would have to be disinformation.

    Which raises a question: Why was all this disinformation about what happened to the plane circulated? It wasn’t just one thing. It happened repeatedly.

    The only thing that would explain the disinformation is that some important people are hiding something that was not an unforseeable accident, most likely a crime, most likely some form of terrorism.

    All theories seem to have problems – I think we are missing some pieces of the puzzle.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  9. 8. Comment by Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 3/18/2014 @ 11:48 pm

    The last voice communication happened well after the transponder was off.

    That appears to have been error, or disinformation.

    The transponder was shut off at 1:21 am – that report has not changed – but the last verbal contact (by the inexperienced co-pilot) came at 1:19 it is now said, not about 1:30 as originally reported.

    In fact by 1:30, Thailand says, the plane had already made a left turn off its flight path.

    No way the pilots would have been ignorant of a fire, nor of massive electronics failure in the cockpit by then.

    If the fire, and not manual action, turned off the transponders. (The reason transponders can be shut off, is because they may need to be shut off once the plane lands, and sometimes it isn’t working properly and the recommendation is t o turn it off and on. This is getting to matter less)

    I can see where in a hijack situation the pilot may have made an original attempt to get down to this airstrip. However, this goes against the author’s main contention that this was simply a mechanical.

    Right.

    There is also no explanation as to why after whatever was going on was over, the plane continued flying for six more hours, and wound up on a course for Antarctica.

    To me, Occam’s Razor points to pilot or co-pilot suicide.

    No. Occam’s Razor points to a semi-foiled hijacking.

    But Occam’s Razor is often wrong. You can see this anytime a young child makes a mistake.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  10. You need something where control of the plane was recovered, either from an accident or from hijackers, but the people who gained control of the plane couldn’t comunicate with anyone, and couldn’t find out where they were and land it.

    That would seem to mean that chief pilot couldn’t have been among the people who recovered control of the airplane.

    Either because he was the bad guy, or because the bad guy(s) took him out of the picture.

    The co-pilot also must have been satisfied nothing was wrong at 1:19, yet two minutes later the transponders are off or damaged beyond easy repair.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  11. Sammy – The pilot who contacted 370 was asked to do so by ATC because they had lost 370 on their screens. Therefore, the transponder was off before the brief exchange occurred.

    I’ll take the first explanation by a fellow pilot over any revisions in any government-provided time log.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  12. Yeah, except that these planes have TIPS, just like your BMW. Tire Inflation Pressure Sensor. An older pilot might not be aware of that. There was no “underinflated tire”.

    JGlanton (069626)

  13. That does not address the kinks in the flight path, the detail that the turn appears to have been pre-programmed, or the apparent final resting places near one of the twin arcs of equal distance from a geosynch satellite.

    This vanishing act is being heavily discussed and fantasized about on the PPRuNe discussion forum.
    (Professional Pilots Rumor Network).

    Nobody has been able to build a fire scenario that holds together, so far. One of the hardest things to reconcile is the flight path when last seen on radar coupled with the arcs of possible locations at some 8 hours into the flight. Somewhere the plane had to turn towards the South, the Southwest, the Northwest, or North well after the pilots are supposedly totally out of the picture.

    Besides, it was all Obama’s fault. He arranged this picnic to distract people from Benghazi and Crimea. {O,o}

    {^_^}

    JDow (c4e4c5)

  14. Wow.

    I was just reading the free transcript of Rush’s Tuesday show. He had a 777 pilot discussing, among other things, the fire scenario. The caller said it would require too many system failures to be credible.

    But, what gobsmacked moi…he mentioned that flight attendants had a way to get through a secure cockpit door! Have any of y’all ever heard that??? Everything I had heard/read said the only way to get past that door was by using some measure of blunt force, e.g. an explosive.

    Anyway, this guy’s conclusion was that the Captain is the most likely culprit and that the sudden altitude changes were in concert with a scuffle in the cockpit, where he assumes the co-pilot was killed.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  15. My only concern is that my tax dollars are not spent on someone else’s foolishness. The rest of the world can pay for this.

    mg (31009b)

  16. Comment by Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 3/19/2014 @ 2:23 am

    What Ed said about what the pilot (who had flown 777′s for 4 years prior to retirement) on Rush said.
    But I don’t think he tried to take into account the reports of ongoing flight path changes, etc.
    As I said before, at this point, I don’t know even what factual information to believe or not.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  17. The airplane’s pieces are five miles deep, the people have already been digested. Any kerosene slick has dissipated; flotsam will be too small to be seen in the first place, and indistinguishable from any other in the second place. Flight 370 has joined Amelia Earhart. If you travel to that part of the world any time soon, avoid eating carnivorous fish.

    nk (dbc370)

  18. The crash of Swiss Air flight 111 was due to a cockpit fire but there were much more indications at the time. It could be the scenario but the differences are significant.

    MikeK (cd7278)

  19. A feint, a gambit, a ruse, or a blundered terrorist attempt? If this were a chess match, the only question I would have, is what are all the other pieces on the enemies board doing, while this upstart of a foolishly pushed pawn waggles his butt for our attention?

    Jack (ff1ca8)

  20. The problem with his theory is that the pilot’s made the turn before the last communication with ATC.

    If they had an emergency such as he speculates, why did they not say something to ATC?

    He has a nice theory but in the light of the timeline, it doesn’t hold up.

    jakee308 (e940d5)

  21. 21. Comment by jakee308 (e940d5) — 3/19/2014 @ 7:39 am

    The problem with his theory is that the pilot’s made the turn before the last communication with ATC.

    No, after. That was wrong, probably disinformation.

    The setting of the autopilot at some point on a different course is probably also disinformation, because what autopilot would set the plane to climb to 45,000 feet? And that happened right at the time of the turn.

    If they had an emergency such as he speculates, why did they not say something to ATC?

    Could be that first their attention was aimed at getting control of the situation, and part of their attempt to gain control would be pulling circuit breakers and shutting everything off. But then they had more than 6 hours of trouble free flight.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  22. UPDATE: Many commenters say this scenario is inconsistent with the voice transmissions. Could be. I don’t claim to be an expert on this. I just tend to look for the simplest explanation that explains the facts. If that’s not this theory, then so be it.

    Patterico (9c670f)

  23. 18. Comment by nk (dbc370) — 3/19/2014 @ 5:26 am

    Flight 370 has joined Amelia Earhart.

    the signaing from the lack boxes still has about another twnety days to go. Australia is trying to pinpoint the location better, which is outside the original arc. They are not releasing what they know, which is ridiculous.

    The plane was heading toward Antarctica and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet but could never have reached it. You don’t get to land or an ice shelf till the Antarctic Circle, and the plane probably ended up 30 degreees or more to the north.

    If you travel to that part of the world any time soon, avoid eating carnivorous fish.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  24. It makes sense

    To me, it doesn’t. If anything, the theory of the person who did that story at wired.com strikes me as oddly naive.

    ndtv.com, March 18: Whoever reached across the dimly lit cockpit of a Malaysia Airlines jet and clicked off a transponder to make Flight MH370 vanish from controllers’ radars flew the plane into a navigational and technical black hole.

    By choosing that exact place and time to vanish into radar darkness with 238 others on board, the person – presumed to be a pilot or a passenger with advanced knowledge – appears to have acted only after meticulous planning, according to aviation experts.

    By signing off from Malaysian airspace at 1.19 a.m. on March 8 (1719 GMT March 7) with a casual “all right, good night,” rather than the crisp radio drill advocated in pilot training, a person now believed to be the co-pilot gave no hint of anything unusual.

    Two minutes later, at 1.21 a.m. local time, the transponder – a device identifying jets to ground controllers – was turned off in a move that experts say could reveal a careful sequence.

    “Every action taken by the person who was piloting the aircraft appears to be a deliberate one. It is almost like a pilot’s checklist,” said one senior captain from an Asian carrier with experience of jets, including the Boeing 777.

    Mark (40dc7c)

  25. 23. The onboard ACARS system was at 1:07 running in its ‘default’ mode, reporting that the next way point was the hand-off from Malaysian air space to Vietnamese space.

    It also sent, per programming, the way point after the next, which somewhat surprisingly was one in the Malacca Straight past the airport, Langwhatever.

    The sign off happened at 1:19 with no indication by any of several means that the pilots had a problem.

    On reaching the Malacca Strait the flight made another programmed turn toward Phuket Island and shortly thereafter another toward the Andaman Islands as it would on a heading toward Europe.

    The Goodfellow argument had already exceeded its expiration date when published.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  26. Would a plane with such a serious fire that it disabled the crew be able to fly for hours and hours? Also, I don’t think this theory explains the sightings over the Maldives.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  27. Here’s what happened. Iran stole the plane. The guys with the stolen passports were involved as were the pilot and co-pilot. They all had independent O2. They took it up to 45,000 feet, cut O2 to the passenger compartment and depressurized the cabin, killing all the passengers. They dropped to the lower altitude so they could open a hatch and dump the bodies. They landed the plane in some remote spot where they had done rudimentary preparation on a landing strip.

    Why? Iran has The Bomb. If Israel makes a move on them (or even if they don’t) Iran will use the plane to deliver it, and achieve their clearly and often stated goal: To wipe Israel off the face of the Earth.

    Ventura Capitalist (1f43c8)

  28. Would a plane with such a serious fire that it disabled the crew be able to fly for hours and hours?

    The author says it’s autopilot.

    (As for the Maldives, I plead ignorance.)

    Patterico (9c670f)

  29. I think his thought is: it’s an electrical fire — not one that consumed the plane, and apparently not one that affected the autopilot functions — but one that killed people on board, possibly through smoke, and affected the radar systems and such.

    Again, I am no expert.

    Patterico (9c670f)

  30. Comment by DRJ (a83b8b) — 3/19/2014 @ 7:56 am

    Also, I don’t think this theory explains the sightings over the Maldives.

    I think, but am not completely sure, that the time of the Maldives sighting is not consistent with the position given for the plane by the Australian government, or even with the data reported to have been derived from the pings to the satellite (but I am wondering there if that arc was simply based on the notion that the plane did not change direction or speed more than afew minutes after leaving Malaysian radar.)

    The red arc we saw a few days ago, I think – they are not being clear – represents where the plane could get to, if it flew on a steady course, at varying speeds (the ends of the arc are the lowest and the highest speeds the oeing 777 could have flown at) from approximately from where its last known position was.

    But before that, it had changed course a number of times. Why assume that from about that point on it went on a steady trajectory?? It hadn’t done that till then? Why assume only one more change and right away?

    Because if you do that, then you can limit the location for the plane somewhat?

    There’s better ways, by comparing the last two or three pings.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  31. Somebody, as his last act, or because he had no idea what he was doing, put the plane on a course toward Antarctica?

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  32. I’m not an aviation expert, either, but this guy is. Maybe a fire in the communications pod could disable everyone on the flight but not the plane itself.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  33. However, the facts suggest that’s not what happened, and it’s still hard for me to imagine a fire that destroys so much in the communications area and so little in the areas that involve flying the plane.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  34. 27. Indeed, Goodfellow’s appeal to emotion, his distaste for wild speculation, and the appeal of “a startlingly simple” theory solving the mystery, is just that, bogus.

    As a number of pilots have noted, the theory that he would fly 30-40 minutes to an airport rather than ditching a la Sullenberger violates their training.

    Goodfellow does not actually incorporate and explain the details, he just cherry picks the high points.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  35. Sammy,

    This article explains why the Maldives’ sighting fits the timeline for the plane.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  36. At first glance, Goodfellow’s overview seems to fit the known circumstances, yet his assumptions are troubling: was the night air unseasonably warm on take-off at midnight in Kuala Lampur, normal temperatures range in the low to mid 80s, and the air is much colder at 35,000 feet, and was the aircraft heavily ladened? Passengers and their luggage aren’t especially heavy, the 777 is designed to carry them, plus extra fuel and cargo, in addition to a wide safety margin.

    More importantly, if a fire broke out multiple sensors would have detected it and warned the pilot, there are established procedures to follow, including a checklist of responses. There’s no need to “pull the main busses” and shut down the aircraft’s electrical system including the communications needed to declare the nature of the emergency, warn other nearby aircraft you’re changing course, and to alert the closest airport to clear a path for a direct approach and to have available firefighting equipment ready and waiting.

    Goodfellow speculates that a fire may have been started by an overheated tire on the front landing gear but doesn’t explain how a burning rubber tire translates into an electrical fire. In any case, the pilot and crew would have had time to announce their plight and to respond appropriately without resorting to a complete electrical shutdown.

    I’m glad Goodfellow offered his two-cents, but unless there’s some actual evidence of a fire his speculation remains one possibility, albeit a troubled one, among several others that also make for a less than satisfactory fit within the ever changing circumstances of Flight 370.

    ropelight (eae785)

  37. 34. Another problem we and the government experts are obviously having a problem with, is updating our multitudinous scenarii on minor seeming updates to our understanding of the data.

    I thought at one point pilots would take manual control of the aircraft, where they seem to be flying by wire. I thought the ACARS and transponder were shut down via the EE bay below decks, in fact, there is no indication that is the case.

    By the same token our ‘government experts’ seem to be sold on the notion that their counterparts in the region behave as they would. That they actually run their radars at 3 AM, that they actually watch the screens, that they report what they know.

    Wrong. So why is anyone looking to the south in the Indian Ocean? Because there were no governments or radar to cover. That is a good reason? What happened to motive in our calculations of motive?

    I’m not convinced stupidity is a sufficient explanation for the search to date.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  38. 38. ‘Calculations of the probabilities’.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  39. The story about people in the Maldive Islands spotting an extremely low-flying plane with a white body and red stripes, like Malaysian Airlines paints its planes, originated with the Malaysian daily newspaper Berita Harian, and I don’t know that it’s been confirmed or duplicated by any other news media source.

    That same newspaper reported that the jet’s captain had practiced on five airports on his home flight simulator: Male International Airport in the Maldives, the U.S. military base at Diego Garcia and 3 other airports in India and Sri Lanka (do they mean to say the only five or that they are included?)

    And it quoted an unidentified Malaysian government official as saying:

    We are not discounting the possibility that the plane landed on a runway that might not be heavily monitored,(!) in addition to theories that that the plane landed on sea, in the hills, or in an open space.

    Somebody leaked this. Somebody in the Malaysian government wants people to believe that maybe the plane has been sitting in the Maldive Islands, unnoticed, for more than a week.

    I don’t know that anybody else besides that newspaper claims or claimed to have interviewed anybody from the Maldive Islands who saw something that looked like the plane attempting a landing there.

    I mean there may not be any real witnesses, or at least any witnesses not paid to say they were there and saw this.

    The Malaysian government has been throwing out one wrong and impossible theory after the other ever since about the day after the crash.

    They are now trying to undelete files from the pilot’s flight simulator to see what airports he might have practiced on before February 3, when he deleted old files. That’s probably really happening (the undeleting.)

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  40. So far, from the tangled web of misinformation, half-truths, and outright falsehoods surrounding the missing airplane, one might get the impression Katherine Sebelius, Hillary Clinton, or Eric Holder was running the dog and pony show.

    ropelight (eae785)

  41. 36. One piece of assumed solid piece of information that has been maintained from early on is that the Sat-Com ping of the ACARS system, logged off or shutdown, last received a time-stamped reply of ‘Ready’ at 8:11 AM GMT.

    The high precision time-stamp permits the air corridor of the reply origination to be determined.

    There has not been a report of any positions for the aircraft prior to the last successful ping.

    It seems to me that that fact indicates history is not available on query of the Sat-Com software.

    But I have a sanity check: The last known corridor is one and the same as the original corridor.

    Had that value, calculated or otherwise, changed at all during the flight. If not, or if the question cannot even be answered then the value of this information is drastically diminished.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  42. If the “refutation” of the onboard fire scenario is the timeline of when the “All right, good night” transmission is made relative to the ACARS / transponder shutdowns, then that is not a refutation.

    The Malaysian govt information has not been shown to be that reliable especially with respect to timelines.

    I think that this scenario has a good chance of being correct in rough outline. That the crew fought a fire by pulling breakers and were overcome by smoke.

    SPQR (768505)

  43. Here’s another aviation expert who subscribes to the fire theory, which he thinks started in the cargo hold. He incorporates the plane’s change in altitude into his theory, but this theory fails if today’s NBC News’ report is true that the plane’s change in direction to the West was plotted in 12 minutes before tje co-pilot signed off. If this report is true, that means the flight crew couldn’t have been heroically responding to a fire emergency.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  44. CNN: “… some experts [were] cautioning the change in direction could have been part of an alternate flight plan programmed in advance in case of emergency.”

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  45. 43. Not precisely. The way point on the Malacca Strait overflying the Langwaui Airport was already programmed at 12 minutes before signoff.

    These way points are part of the pre-flight checklist.

    When the way point was entered is not known, only that it is not part of a Kuala Lumpur to Beijing path.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  46. Happyfeet and I are on the same page – Megalodon, or Sharknado

    JD (9c73be)

  47. 45. Evidently there is a backup Alternate Flight path. The alternate paths are also necessary as part of the pre-flight checklist.

    It is certainly possible an alternate path way point could have been mistakenly inserted into the primary path sequence.

    Under operation the pilot can abort the primary path for the alternate path.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  48. 36. (Link to International Business Times article)

    That article attributes the story to a “local newspaper” (in the remote Maldivian Island of Kuda Huvadhoo?)

    The time is given as 6:15 am local time, or 9:15 am Malysian time.

    The plane should have made another ping at 9:11 am if that was so, and it didn’t. It was said to have about 8 hours of fuel and took off at 12:41 am.

    And the article counts 8 hours from the signoff to air traffic control, NOT from takeoff!!

    It seems from the article that actually that the airport runway at Male was too small for a Boeing 777 and the nearest good enough airport is 1,400 miles away at Mahe in the Seychelles Islands. If the pilot steeered a course for the Maldives and he practiced on his flight simulator he would have known what kind of planes could safely land there, and he wouldn’t have selected it. And this is apparently known to not be the normal approach a plane takes in landing in the Maldives.

    The government of the Maldive Islands also has now issued a statement saying the country’s military and airport radars had not seen the flight. (although there’s caveat maybe it was flying very low)

    http://www.mndf.gov.mv/mndf/English/News.php?newsid=1186

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  49. This article also still has the “All right, goodnight” coming at 1:30 am, instead of the later revised 1:19 am and calculates how long it would have taken the plane flying on a direct course from that spot (not the place on the west coast of Malysia where it left radar at 2:15 am) and it says that if it then flew directly to the Maldive Islands, it should have arrived there at about 3 am local time, three hours earlier.

    The article also notes:

    If the pilots tried for a landing at Langkawi and missed because they became incapacitated, the autopilot would have kept them flying straight and level on the last compass heading. (Which would have taken MH370 more or less over Kuda Huvadhoo, by the way.)

    But Malaysian military radar tells you that it changed course pretty soon, and again, it should have arrived there a lot sooner if the autopilot sent it there.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  50. Entering, on the fly, a change in way point, has an advantage of executing a turn in the most benign manner possible, versus, e.g., a pilot taking over from auto pilot, and banking near the plane’s limit of 30 degrees.

    Evidently the latter is a thing of the past under nominal conditions.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  51. 50. And if true, that the plane passed overhead at 9:15 GMT on a heading toward Diego Garcia that airport would have been its last chance for landing, let alone refueling and takeoff.

    Could the flight cabin occupants be unconscious and auto pilot have taken the plane in a long arc to the Maldives. Possibly.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  52. Comment by gary gulrud (e2cef3) — 3/19/2014 @ 9:20 am

    There has not been a report of any positions for the aircraft prior to the last successful ping.

    I think the information from the previous pings must obviously be known to someone and the Australian government has that information, and used it to calculate the plane’s probabe location, 2000 miles west of Perth.

    It seems to me that that fact indicates history is not available on query of the Sat-Com software.

    But I have a sanity check: The last known corridor is one and the same as the original corridor.

    Had that value, calculated or otherwise, changed at all during the flight. If not, or if the question cannot even be answered then the value of this information is drastically diminished.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  53. It seems to me that that fact indicates history is not available on query of the Sat-Com software.

    How could it be available for 8:11 ping and not for everything else? It is not available to us but it definitely exists.

    And now let us make a few deductions:

    1) Somebody is trying to keep this thing secret becausethey want people looking in the wrong place…

    2) because they don’t want us to find the black boxes….

    3) because that maybe could tell us what really happened….

    4 And some people in the Malaysian government know or have strong susoicions of what really happened,

    5) And they are to blame

    6) because they either ignored information or were bribed to do something (not necessarily knowing it would result in a hijacking.

    This is Occam’s Razor.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  54. But I have a sanity check: The last known corridor is one and the same as the original corridor.

    Had that value, calculated or otherwise, changed at all during the flight. If not, or if the question cannot even be answered then the value of this information is drastically diminished.

    ??? The Malysian government has just been trying to have people look in the wrong place almost since the beginning.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  55. 55. The Malaysian government will be the last to know anything.

    At the moment the Indonesian government is prohibiting a search in its territory.

    I will research the Sat-Com satellite when I get off work. Having done this sort of work professionally, there is very limited memory space and programming time for ‘nice to haves’ in hardware design.

    There is no hard drive aboard.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  56. This intriguing but unsubstantiated report indicates 5 runways were deleted from the pilot’s flight simulator, including one in the Maldives:

    Investigators have discovered the runways of five airports near the Indian Ocean loaded into Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah’s home-made flight simulator, a Malay daily reported today.
    ***
    “The simulation programmes are based on runways at the Male International Airport in Maldives, an airport owned by the United States (Diego Garcia), and three other runways in India and Sri Lanka, all have runway lengths of 1,000 metres.

    “We are not discounting the possibility that the plane landed on a runway that might not be heavily monitored, in addition to the theories that the plane landed on sea, in the hills, or in an open space,” the source was quoted as saying.

    I think we have to treat this as rumor, given the anonymous source, but it will be interesting to see if anything comes of this.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  57. I think that Goodfellow’s yarn is plausible, except when it comes to the final “ping” after 7.5-hrs of flight(sic) that puts the plane either over Central Asia, or way West of Perth, Australia:
    How did the plane get to either spot in flying on a direct route to Palau Langkawi from his turn to the West over the Gulf of Thailand?
    If, after arriving at Langkawi, the plane continued flying on the same heading, it would go to the Maldives, or perhaps Diego Garcia before running out of fuel.
    Curiouser and curiouser.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  58. Comment by Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 3/19/2014 @ 2:23 am

    All locks have a “back door”, or should have.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  59. As a number of pilots have noted, the theory that he would fly 30-40 minutes to an airport rather than ditching a la Sullenberger violates their training.

    Ditching a “heavy” in the open ocean – at night – is not a rational decision, and would only be attempted as a last resort. You keep flying as long as you can to get to somewhere better than where you are.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  60. Disorientation from time….

    It would help in discussing events that traverse different time zones if all times were expressed in GMT(Z).

    askeptic (2bb434)

  61. I think all the times here (or most of them) are expressed in Malaysian time, which is 13 time zones ahead of Eastern Standard Time.

    We moved to Daylight Savings Time the night after the crash, so now Malaysia is 12 hours ahead of New York, not 13, as it was the night of the crash.

    At 2 am Sunday March 9, 2014 it became 3 am here. That was at 3 pm Malaysian time Sunday afternoon.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  62. GMT is GMT the world around, and does not have DST which is a local phenomenon;
    which is why it is the time used by military agencies, and governments, when they need to document far-flung events that are, or could be, related, and to time-stamp documents/reports.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  63. 52. Comment by gary gulrud (e2cef3) — 3/19/2014 @ 9:46 am

    And if true, that the plane passed overhead at 9:15 GMT

    Not GMT. Malaysian time, which is 3 hours ahead of Maldives time.

    But the plane couldn’t have passed overhead at 9:15 Malaysian time (6:15 Maldives time) because there would have been a ping to the satellite at 9:11 and there wasn’t.

    And the fuel would have run out at about 8:45 or so.

    Also, on a direct course, with no zigzagging or changes of direction, which of course could have happened, the plane should have arrived at the Maldives at about 6:00 Malaysian time – 3:00 am or so Maldives time.

    By the way, Malaysian Airlines reported the plane missing at 7:24 am, and we now know it was still in the air at 8:11 am Malaysian time.

    It was probably about 2,000 miles West North West, or should that be west by north, of Perth, Australia, heading almost directly towards Antarctica in late summer there. But Antarctica was well out of range.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  64. Here is a link that apparently explains the onboard Satcom system.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  65. I am confident that with Sammy on the case that this mystery will be solved within hours, if not minutes.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  66. Well, I only have the basic outline of who is responsible:

    Somebody pretty high up in the Malaysian government made a patronage appointment of someone who has since disappeared, who disappeared in fact before the airplane took off, and that person was a key person in making possible the hijacking of the airplane.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  67. Presuming the indigenous personnel in the Maldives actually saw the plane, could it then or later on whatever course it was on have been spotted by Diego Garcia’s various radars?

    Richard Aubrey (0605ef)

  68. Comment by askeptic (2bb434) — 3/19/2014 @ 11:35 am

    I know very little about these things, but the retired pilot who talked to Rush (and had flown 777′s for about 4 years) said that pilot training is to get the plane down within 20 minutes in the event of an ongoing fire.
    So, between ditching at sea at night in 20 minutes or flying with a fire for 40 minutes I am glad I will very likely never have to make that choice.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  69. The goal would be to get the plane down within 20 minutes – that is, not to try to fly it on for more than 6 hours.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  70. Distraught Relatives Storm Malaysia Minister’s Press Conference Danielle Wiener-Bronner

    One upset woman was surrounded by reporters as she was dragged out crying and screaming….

    …The official further reported that accounts from Maldives residents, who claimed to have spotted a large plane flying over the remote southern island of Kuda Huvadhoo, were probably not accurate. He said, “I can confirm that the Malaysian Chief of the Defense Force has contacted his counterpart in the Maldives, who has confirmed that these reports are not true.”

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  71. The original source for the reports might be The Maldivian daily newspaper Haveeru’s online portal Haveru Online..

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  72. The Malaysian newspaper which printed the story is linked to the government party according to another news source: Berita Harian floats ‘local issues’ link to MH370

    Echoing the government’s line that “all possibilities” were being investigated, the Umno-linked daily said that the Lahad Datu intruders, Pakatan Rakyat-supporters and Syiah believers can also be suspects.

    So, it is a recipient of leaks from people associated with the United Malays National Organization.

    They practice a tremendous amount of “affirmative action” in Malaysia. Ethnic Malays constitute about 58% of the population but are less well educated. these “sons of the soil” are given jobs in preference to ethnic Chinese and Indians. the airline apparently hires pilots by merit – therefore the complaint by members of the military intelligence saying that 80 percent of the pilots working for Malaysian Airlines were members or supporters of opposition parties.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  73. 66. Thank you so much. Have you totally lost your mind, daleyrocks, posting what Sammy will perceive as a challenge? Have you learned noth.ing about posting sarcasm here?

    elissa (2c2b4d)

  74. elissa – I want to Sammy focused on solving this important mystery. :)

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  75. keep

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  76. Comment by MD in Philly (f9371b) — 3/19/2014 @ 2:01 pm

    All well and good, which is why I question why the turn to Langkawi if dealing with a fire was the issue – particularly without comms to squawk a Mayday and try to find surface support.
    No, something else was going on.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  77. I fly 777s for a living. I have been flying airplanes for about 40 years.

    The one thing I know about onboard fires in an airplane, especially an airliner, is that the average time between initial indications and catastrophic structural failure is…22 minutes.

    That’s 22 minutes from, “Do you smell something?” to the ELT being triggered by the sudden impact with ground or water (at high speeds, the net effect of hitting the ocean is indistinguishable from hitting the dirt).

    The 777 has a number of fire fighting systems, designed to isolate it if at all possible in the belly holds and electronic compartments. They include everything from HALON suppressors to automatic pressurization/ventilation reconfigurations triggered by temperature and/or smoke detection. The one place it doesn’t have actual suppression is in the main gear well area but it can detect it there. How do you fight it? Slow down and drop the gear. At altitude that would cool whatever is cooking and, if you’re lucky, literally blow the fire out.

    By the way, the climb to FL450 seems really weird. The jet’s service ceiling is 43,100 so whatever they were doing, if they in fact reached 45, it was a zoom climb, methinks (nose it over, build up energy–speed–and then pull it up to “zoom” to 45K through sheer inertia). That wouldn’t be doing the engines any favors either.

    Bottom line: If either of us thought we smelled something burning, the next sound you would hear is the muffled BANG of two sphincters slamming shut, followed closely by the hiss of the O2 masks being pulled from their storage compartments as we donned them. Then we would be VERY QUICKLY hitting the ALTN button on the FMS to give us a snap vector to the nearest suitable field while trying to figure out what was happening. In the ensuring “helmet fire” (term meaning you’re really really really busy analyzing the situation and determining the proper action to take), one of us would activate the ADS’s emergency mode (ADS=Automatic Dependent Surveillance) which would light up every screen that was capable of CPDLC comms with us. (CPDLC=Controller-Pilot DataLink Communications). The Vietnamese have CPDLC and their English is excellent (imagine that…). The Malaysians? Don’t know. My only experience in that region is Singapore and those guys/gals are superb.

    One last thing: Boeing likes to “watch” everything their products are doing when airborne via ACARS and when THAT stops, antennas go up. Same for the engine manufacturers (at least I would assume so). I know GE does, and if something’s amiss with the motors, I’ve been told that GE will call the operator with the question, “What’s up?” or “Whatever you’re doing, it’s not good for the engine so quit it.” or “If you keep doing what you’re doing, we will void the warranty on that engine.” So, I’m waiting for more input from the OEMs…what did they see and when did they see it?

    Do I know what happened? Not a clue, but Occam’s Razor seems to be getting a workout.

    a10pilot (340695)

  78. a10pilot,

    Very helpful comment with a lot of important points, but here are some things I noticed:

    1. An onboard fire can be suppressed but it is more likely to spread quickly and/or to disable the airplane.

    2. Even in an emergency, one of the pilots would try to call for help.

    3. Climbing to 45,000 feet as the airplane reportedly did is highly unusual and would not be a reasonable or expected thing to do if there were a fire, emergency, etc.

    If you have time for a question (or two), how hard would it be to land and take off an airplane like this on an unattended airstrip — specifically, would it have to be a long, paved airstrip or would something less than that do? Also, if there were no pings after 8:11 AM as the early reports suggest, does this indicate the plane had crashed or landed by the next hourly ping at 9:11 AM, or could there be another explanation?

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  79. PS — I’m not trying to put words in your mouth. Please correct anything I’ve said that isn’t accurate.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  80. Also, two different aviation experts — Chris Goodfellow and Billie Vincent — have said they think a fire explains what happened to MH370. Goodfellow thinks the fire was in the communications area, while Vincent thinks it was in the cargo hold but the smoke disabled the pilots, crew and passengers before they could call for help. Do you have any thoughts on these theories?

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  81. The WSJ reported the Rolls Royce engines operated for 5 hours but the Malaysian government and Rolls Royce initially denied the report but now it appears most authorities agree MH370 did fly for several hours. Also, why didn’t the Emergency Locator Transmitter activate if MH370 crashed?

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  82. I think the airplane was hijacked (by one of the pilots) to Pakistan.

    Elephant Stone (6a6f37)

  83. DRJ, since activation of the ELT requires a sudden stop of forward momentum (does anyone know the negative-G load required for trigger?), the logical conclusion is that the plane did not crash, but landed somewhere.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  84. Well, the ELT’s radio waves, which can be received by satellites or other radio receivers, do not travel through salt water. Underwater locator beacons emit a sonic ping which needs an “ear” in the water or on the surface, with a range from as little as four to a maximum of maybe thirteen or fourteen miles.

    nk (dbc370)

  85. But, because water does not compress (note a10′s mention that hitting water is similar to striking hard-earth – anyone who’s attended drag-boat races can bear witness as to what happens when a boat starts to disintegrate at high-speed and it just skips across the water like it was glass) there is a very good chance that the initial triggering of the ELT will be while it is still on the surface in the debris field with a line-of-sight to whatever satellite is within view, before sinking to the depths.
    But, Hey, I’m just spit-ballin’ here.
    Until the plane, or wreckage, is found, no-one knows nuthin’.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  86. If the jet is somewhere like in Pakistan and it and/or passengers are being held as ransom– from whom would they demand the ransom? And would it be monetary or something else related to a ghastly threat? Would the bad actors make public demands or keep it “private”? Would any state even tell us the demand has been made?

    elissa (24471e)

  87. Although the coordinates have not been made public, Malaysia has asked India to search by air only an area in the ‘southern Indian Ocean’ for debris.

    Prior to their agreeing the Indians had required more information of the Malaysians and in the event it was not so privileged, it would have left off cooperation in the search.

    As Australia is already at the fuel limit in the SE area of the air corridor the area Indians are left to search would seem to be, by deduction, between the Maldives and Diego Garcia.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  88. The five witnesses from the Maldives made their observations sometime before 2 AM local time via moonlight.

    If indeed MH370 the path must have been direct and at cruising speed.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  89. Now that the ruble has stabilized the yuan is crashing, possibly destroying hedge positions if it continues thru the end of the week.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  90. Author Brad Thor is apparently thinking generally along the same lines as my post @87 if the plane has not just crashed into the ocean.

    http://bredred.com/the-absolutely-horrific-malaysia-airlines-scenario-author-brad-thor-is-really-really-concerned-about/

    elissa (24471e)

  91. 91. We don’t know how much fuel the plane had loaded probably on the order of 3500 miles worth.

    On the last know heading Mogadishu might have been reachable on fumes.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  92. Also, two different aviation experts — Chris Goodfellow and Billie Vincent — have said they think a fire explains what happened to MH370.

    I don’t get their take on things. They seem like the opposite extreme of a doctor who when seeing his secretary get a paper cut on her finger hollers, “Oh, my God, get her to the emergency room quickly, right now!!”

    Mark (b9a740)

  93. elissa #87,

    I don’t think the various governments would say anything publicly unless they were forced to. We’ve already seen Malaysia and Rolls Royce deny the Wall Street Journal report that the plane was in the air 4-5 hours, even though more recent reports indicate they probably knew it was true. America may even have a good idea where the plane is but no one will say so, and they shouldn’t. As James Kallstrom said tonight, if we see the U.S. Navy stop or curtail its search operations in the next 2-3 days, then we know America is sure the airplane isn’t in the ocean. The only way to know that is to know where it is.

    If the plane is in Pakistan, it’s easy to see this as the first step in a plan to get back at Obama and America for killing Bin Laden. It could be a public, elaborate plot to use a plane (either with or without its innocent passengers) to target Israel, America, other Western interests, or other countries. On the opposite end of the scale, it could be an offer to trade a plane of primarily Chinese citizens for Obama’s family when they travel in China next week. Or it could be anything in between. If this is a hijacking, whoever is behind it is patient, meticulous, and methodical. That makes them very dangerous.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  94. DRJ–I try to back away from this story since every one of the possibilities of what happened to the plane is almost too awful to contemplate. Then somebody writes another theory and I get sucked back in. I do believe certain governments know way more than they are saying and that there may be a great deal of purposeful misdirection going on and being fed to the media to keep everybody off balance. If this is terrorism, Obama is not the one I would want to be in charge during such a crisis.

    elissa (24471e)

  95. The Australians say they may have found some plane debris West of Perth, which fits the Southern route theory. I almost hope this is it, for the families’ sakes.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  96. So, if it was a hijacking, what are the hijackers doing? Enjoying martinis on the beach? No one has heard word one from them, and these people are typically eager to take credit for their nefarious actions.

    The climb to 45K might fit with an intervention by passengers following a hijack and a struggle in the cockpit. A hijacker with skills to pilot the A/C wouldn’t be eager to deliberately explore the upper limits of the 777′s flight envelope. Especially if the guilty party was one of the experienced pilots.

    One thing is certain: whatever happened to Flight 370, the parties involved picked the best part of the globe to ensure endless speculation as to the cause…and their fate.

    navyvet (aca3d3)

  97. elissa:

    If this is terrorism, Obama is not the one I would want to be in charge during such a crisis.

    So true.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  98. 96. 1430 miles SW of Perth. Obviously jumbo jet wreckage out here would have but one source.

    But what in the world was the motive? Horsing the world around?

    The ELT would have failed.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  99. 96. Cont. Two weeks in the Southern Ocean. The plane could have gone down a thousand miles to the West and crash on the corridor was South of Madagascar.

    I put the odds as 100:1.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  100. I’m just disappointed Sammy does not have this mystery solved by now.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  101. 96. Cont. Largest imaged object 80 feet in length.

    Not promising.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  102. Antarctic circumpolar current speed averages 4 km per hour.

    700 miles in 12 days.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  103. for those, such as elissa, who have had enough of this bizarre story, here are some radar screens you can look at happily…

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/19/mystery-plume-radar-image-near-nuclear-waste-site-solved/

    redc1c4 (abd49e)

  104. #103: since the current flows from Africa towards Oz, how far west would the crash site needed to be for the wreckage to be located where it was spotted?

    how does that compare with the max range?

    redc1c4 (abd49e)

  105. 105. Well just a SWAG, but 700 miles at that latitude might be 20 degrees in longitude.

    http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/I-3-satellite-coverage-November-2013.jpg

    I’m guessing the current location at 90 degrees so the crash site at 70 degrees E.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  106. i wonder what happened to the plane though

    what *really* happened I mean

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  107. 105. CNN is showing the search area now inside the South Indian Ocean gyre a few hundred miles north of the circumpolar current.

    The bad news is that location is sort of a garbage patch. Junk just circles.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  108. The Inmarsat 3 was launched in 1998 about the time I was transitioning from hardware to software engineering.

    Probably the era of Pentium IV, and Windows NT. Nonvolatile RAM chips probably held a few kilobytes.

    This was before flash memories, like your thumbdrive.

    Bet the program space is a couple of MB.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  109. Fox News tonight showed a graphic that they were searching for a site 1726-mi (didn’t say Statute or Nautical) WSW of Perth. At 96NM/day x 11 days, that’s a fair amount of drift.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  110. i was thinking it might’ve drifted but it’s hard to know for sure

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  111. (wind direction / engine speed) + ((cnn chyron insight multiplier * sharknado exponent score) / (climate change)) = plane location +/- 10 miles I think

    unless the chinesers are involved

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  112. There’s a report – they may be close to locatinmg the plane. I think there wasa sayellite picture from March 16 – 4 days ago, and they have gottensome significant hits on radar. An ABC News reporter is on some kind of an aircraft which is heading toward this area to have a look. Ge filed a report about an hour ago. It is a very remote area and will take time to reach..

    It is 1,400 miles from Antarctica, 1.300 miles miles from Australia, almost due south of Kuala Lumpur. The plane would have been heading toward the South Pole. This is about 2,775 miles, if I caught the number right, from Kuala Lumpur – South South West or something, I didn’t catch the compass direction either but iit wasn’t due south.

    The Australian Prime Minister held a press conference a couple of hours ago.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  113. There’s an Australian warhip headed toward the general area where they think they could have spotted some debris from the plane a few days ago. It is said to be able to retrieve anything from the ocean floor. It will take several days to get there.

    You can get there much faster by air, but you can’t do too much..

    The Royal Australian Air Force P-3 has arrived at the search site, but it can’t report anything back because of clouds, rain, and limited visibility.

    The largest piece of possible debris is about 24 meters long – that would be 77 to 80 feet. There is another large piece somewhat smaller, and more smaller debris.

    Sammy Finkelman (20c5cc)

  114. First ship on site, Norwegian merchant.

    Probably out joy riding.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  115. Just before 7 am Eastern time, ABC News’s David Wright got back from a 9-hour back and forth flight on an American P-8 plane, which can fly 300 feet over the water and went on Good Morning America..

    They had been diverted in mid-flight from one location to another.

    The location they were looking at is, if it is the one they are talking about during the night, too far east and too far south to be consistent with the earlier calculations. It’s outside the home-plate shaped Australian search zone.

    But the area is known as the “Roaring 40s” with very strong winds and currents, so they could have speculated maybe the wreckage moved a long distance away. I don’t know if you really should expect this size and kind of wreckage.

    Anyway, the larger object they were looking at turned out to be a freighter, and the next sized one, a pod of dolphins.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  116. How amazingly foolish (and idiotic) of people in official circles in Australia to have opened their yaps before being certain that what they were seeing truly were remnants of the missing jet.

    It’s like the mentality of the paparazzi or supermarket tabloids writ large.

    Mark (b9a740)

  117. 116, 117. The CNN simulator has also discovered some problems.

    1). The flight still had 1500 miles of fuel left.

    2). There were no way points to direct the flight at this area.

    Additional notes, not necessarily problems with the scenario.

    The suto pilot would have to have been in ‘heading mode’. On fuel exhaustion the plane would not have nosed over, but glided possibly hundreds of miles. The ELT in any case should have triggered on impact the waves being significant.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  118. 117. They didn’t just open their yaps in Australia. The Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, telephoned the Malaysian Prime Minister, Najib Razak, and said he had done so publicly..

    They had to say something anyway, since they were sending all sorts of planes there – 3 Australian Orion P-3Cs, an American P-8 Poseidon and an aircraft from New Zealand.

    Although I am not clear that all went to the same spot. The location has been described as 1,550 miles southwest of Perth (New York Times story) and also 1,900 miled southwest of Perth (Wall Street Journal story) and I heard on the radio 1,300 miles from Australia.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  119. 118. Whatever theory is true has to fit not most of the facts, but all of the facts, and I think their search site was the wrong place for the plane, plus the 80 foot or so “piece of debris” were too big. The largest piece that could float would probably be the tail of the plane.

    Actually it wouldn’t have to fit all of the facts, because one or more of the “facts” could be wrong. That’s something to remember. In fact, it’s likely that one or more facts are wrong.

    A good theory would have one or more of the accepted facts wrong.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  120. I suspect the reason Prime Minister Tony Abbott went ahead with this so fast, is that he wants to put a stop to the cover-up, and the misdirection and the lack of co-operation or stalling and secrecy on the part of the Malaysian government.

    And finding the plane, and with it maybe soon the black boxes, would cause the Malaysian government to give up hope of covering up the the cause of the crash.

    In related news:

    The government in Malaysia blocked debate on a motion in Parliament to discuss its handling of flight’s disappearance, but they may try again next week if Anwar Ibrahim’s wife wins a by-election on Sunday.

    The pilot, Captain Zaharie – last names come first in Malysia – Ahmad Shah is related by marriage to Anwar Ibrahim – Anwar Ibrahim’s daughter in law is a relative. He is not all hat actove in politics, although he did volunteer last year in the successful re-election campaign of Sivarasa Rasiah, his member of Parliament – I don’t know what party.

    Anwar’s party (which he cannot legally be a member of right now, owing to his convictions) is not the biggest opposition party in Malysia. That is led by Lim Guan Eng, who is chief minister of Penang, and he too doesn’t like this focus on the pilot.

    The government has claimed to have cleared all Malaysians except for the pilot, and they even had the hard disk from his flight simulater sent to the FBI in Washington in an attempt to detect deleted files.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  121. The biggest theory making the rounds on social media in Malaysia is that the plane was hijacked…

    …but the passengers are all still alive, and the Malaysian government is secretly negotiating with the hijackers!

    (Source: New York Times citing Professor James Chin, a prrofessor of political science at the Kuala Lumpur campus of Monash Uniiversity)

    By the way, the government lost the popular vote in the last Parliamentary election, but won the most seats because of malapportionment and gerrymandering.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  122. SF, if the gov’ts of Australia, New Zealand, and the US are in close cooperation (something that is quite common with these three) with the air/sea search, it would be conceivable that all three of the areas you list could be assigned to different assets. Searches are conducted in a systematic manner over large tracts usually by a single asset using a set search pattern much as a farmer plows a field – you don’t keep going over the same piece of ocean. You start at where your info indicates their is a high probability of the subject being at a certain time, and move slowly in the direction that wind and sea would drift the subject in the intervening period.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  123. The 1,900 mile southwest of Perth figure comes from Australian Maritime Safety Rescue Coordinating Center, according to the Wall Street Journal, and seems to apply to all three countries.

    The 1,550 miles (actually 2,500 kilometers) southwest of Perth figure comes from an “Australian official” according to the AP, according to the New York Times, and is where a satellite (on March 16) identified two possible objects.

    I think they might have been targets of a search at different times, with the 1,900 miles being an earlier target. David Wright said the P-8 he was on was diverted to adifferent locationn in mid-flight.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  124. Comment by gary gulrud (e2cef3) — 3/19/2014 @ 10:11 am

    I will research the Sat-Com satellite when I get off work.

    What did you find out?

    Ii> Having done this sort of work professionally, there is very limited memory space and programming time for ‘nice to haves’ in hardware design.

    There is no hard drive aboard.

    A Wall Street Journal article today indicates that within hours of the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines flight 370 (announced 7:24 am Malaysian time Saturday, March 8, 2014 = 11:24 pm Friday March 7, 2014 GMT) Inmarsat PLC, the satellite operator, began searching its data.

    And from everything I ever heard it sounds like they got all the pings – the last one at 8:11 am Malaysian time = 12:11 am GMT)

    They turned the information over to their partner company SITA (based in Switzerland) the same day (March 8)

    Monday March 10: Inmarsat began analyzing its data to calculate the location of the plane, using the changing angle and distance from the satellite.

    Tuesday March 11: The completed data analysis, along with some accompanying documents is shared with SITA. It indicates the search zones are wrong.

    Wednesday March 12: Information is relayed to Malaysian officials by SITA (although possibly it might have taken till the next morning for it to be read) and to British security and air safety officials by Inmarsat. It probably makes its way from the British to the Americans, who produce a map.

    Malaysian government sits on the information, while it debated whether it needs to be corroborated and whether this information should be released.

    Saturday March 15, 2014: Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Rezak (Najib is the surname) acknowledges the satellite information at a press conference.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  125. Does anyone know any place in Antarctica that has an airport code? (however little used)

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  126. McMurdo Sound may have.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  127. Could the plane have been on a great circle route toward there, or would its course have been in too much of an eastward direction fr it to have been on that arc?

    And is that (or any other Antarctic) code in any way similar to some otgher location?

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  128. This looks like maybe aplace is could have been headed to:

    AQ MIR Mirny Mirny 1——- RL 0507 6633S 09300E

    Out of range, and it probably couldn’t land there anyway, but the autopilot might know about it maybe.

    Here MIR is said to be Tunisia:

    http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/IATA_Codes/IATA_Code_M.htm

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  129. Speculating about a land(?)fall in Antarctica is just an a$$-pull. Don’t think they had enough fuel to reach there.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  130. No, I don’t think they reached Antarctica or the Amery or Shackleton Ice Shelf, although it is interesting to speculate on whether they could have landed safely on that.

    They would not have gotten within 1,500 miles. But I think it is possible they were heading in that direction

    Something needs to explain the course of that plane, unless it was random. They had regained control of the plane from the hijackers, but maybe the pilot and the co-pilot were out of commission.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  131. Barcky Obama
    he rilly rocked effin’ boat
    before he sank it

    Colonel Haiku (9c0af7)

  132. The Scanner who had control of the pilot’s mind suffered a minor cerebrovascular episode, a constant hazard in the telepath business. The pilot regained control of his body, but did not regain complete consciousness, and crashed the plane by performing random maneuvers.

    Oh, yeah? It’s less crazy than black holes.

    nk (dbc370)

  133. we’ve mollycoddled scanners and their tricksy mental powers for far too long

    speaking of which

    the remake of Patrick still hasn’t found any kind of distribution here I don’t think

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_%282013_film%29#Release (remake)

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0078067/ (original)

    you might think this is cause it sucks but the remake has Sharni Vinson (Step Up 3D) plus Charles Dance (Game of Thrones) so how bad could it be

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  134. happyfeet, did you just identify a cast member of “Step Up 3D” ?

    There has to be some sort of penance for that.
    You have to make up for it by watching three Howard Hawks films.

    Elephant Stone (6a6f37)

  135. Sharni completely owned the role of Natalie I think

    she was sexy and vulnerable yet feisty and also she sort of jiggled

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n-Y4DU3aDU

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  136. 125. See 109.

    I have not gotten any detailed info on the SITA or NTSB analysis.

    However, my SWAG is that no one remains who has talked to the original programmer, had his number on some rolodex in the attic, and the documentation of the Sat-Com protocols are dog-eared monographs, some of which are no longer extant as the microfiche was tossed on the trash heap ages ago.

    So having the analysis probably wouldn’t be a lot of help.

    My theory is the timestamps on transmissions are updated only on successful data uplinks. Freaking pings and acknowledges don’t. So the calculations of air corridor were worthless after 1:37 AM GMT the night of.

    All this effort is equivalent with a detail ordered to recursively dig a ditch, and fill it in.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  137. A Malaysian Minister just delivered an apologia of their efforts to date. Most of the effort will be focused on the Southern Ocean but a new effort will begin centered in Kazakhstan in the ‘northern corridor’.

    The US(NTSB) and independently the British evaluated the Inmarsat transmissions and agreed on the ‘corridor’.

    Oddly airlines do not use these corridors, their nomenclature seems preposterous. Coincidentally the corridor established at 1:07 AM GMT was the very same on which the plane was last located at 8:11 AM GMT.

    What is the game being played here? The Southern Ocean is the last place the plane could be, Kazakhstan is very nearly the second to last place the plane might be found.

    Did some government shoot the thing down? There was ostensibly “no chatter” whatever on the terrorist networks. Is this a bald-faced lie?

    What makes this elaborate expenditure time and money in global togetherness in the nether regions necessary?

    The first Orions have returned to Australia in ‘good weather’ this AM with zip, zero, nada sightings of debris.

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  138. Did some government shoot the thing down?

    I said it first.

    nk (dbc370)

  139. Yes, a government shot it down. Then immediately disposed of the evidence. I’ve been saying it all along.

    nk (dbc370)

  140. 142. Comment by gary gulrud (e2cef3) — 3/21/2014 @ 3:01 am

    A Malaysian Minister just delivered an apologia of their efforts to date. Most of the effort will be focused on the Southern Ocean but a new effort will begin centered in Kazakhstan in the ‘northern corridor’.

    If Malaysia is touting it, you can be sure the theory is wrong. They’ve also now decided to lend support to the fire theory by saying that the airplane was not just carrying 4 tons of a Malaysian fruit, but also lithium ion batteries, albeit in approved packaging.

    The Kazakhstan theory is the second theory outlined here:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26609687

    This actually probably also includes theory number 7, which is that the plane hid in the radar shadow of Singapore Airlines flight 68 until breaking off at some point. But to evade military radar, it probably would have had to be within 1000m (3300ft) and I think maybe that’s enough to create turbulence.

    Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan said already by the beginning of this week that it was not detected, and it would have been detcted by other countries before too, as well.

    http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/malaysia-
    airlines-kazakhstan-idINDEEA2G09020140317

    You really need the hijackers to be in cahoots with at least the radar operators. Now if there was a history of drug or people smuggling by smugglers using large airplanes, then maybe you could suspect that, and the hijacking would actually have to be merely the tip of the iceberg.

    ….which is may be. But not that iceberg.

    Kazakhstan is on the regular flight path on some airline flights. Malaysia Airlines planes made nine regular flights to and from Europe over Kazakhstan’s territory on March 8, so I don’t know maybe that’s why they picked Kazahhstan.

    Malaysia also tried Kyrgyzstan, with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak on Monday phoning Kyrgyzstan Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev on Monday.

    But there’s both a U.S. and a Russian military base in their country with pretty serious radar equipment. (Putin bribed the government to deny the U.S. permission for certain things)

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  141. 144. Comment by nk (dbc370) — 3/21/2014 @ 6:50 am

    Yes, a government shot it down. Then immediately disposed of the evidence. I’ve been saying it all along.

    If there is any country that shot it down, that would be Indonesia.

    One nation that has refused to allow any planes to search is Indonesia.

    And the only reason it is excluded from the arc is what? That radar coverage would have detected he plane? Or its positions at 6:11 and 7:11 excludes that?

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  142. I’m still bettting on Vietnam. Any country could shoot down an airplane. Which one would have the dystopia to both want to conceal it and the ability to do it?

    nk (dbc370)

  143. *the ability to do it* Conceal it. Clamp down on the information leaking out.

    nk (dbc370)

  144. 147. Comment by nk (dbc370) — 3/21/2014 @ 7:08 am

    I’m still bettting on Vietnam. Any country could shoot down an airplane. Which one would have the dystopia to both want to conceal it and the ability to do it?

    Yes, Vietnam – or Laos – has a worse government, definitely.

    I think the boundaries of the arc we have seen may have been set by the Malaysian government.

    At least I read that the boundaries had been extended west by the malaysian government, apparently to cover the path projected by Australia. I assumed Australia was using the 6:11 and 7:11 pings and an assumed steady course and speed to calculate location, so the Malysian government was just catching up with other people.

    There’s gap there in the arc. I read something abiuyt curvaure of the earth but that makes no sense to me. And the New York Times gave a different reason.

    This is what the map on page A10 in the New York yesterday says about the missing parts of the red arc:

    Parts of the circle can be eliminated if they are to far for the plane to have flown given its fuel or if the curve goes through areas of the world where radar coverage would have detected the plane.

    Now, the left half of the circle would be because it was too far for the plane to have flown (it should have had no more than about 2 hours more fuel than was needed to reach its destination in Beijing.)

    But radar?

    What is special about the radar in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia itself, and western Indonesia that we can be sure radar would have detected it, but we have to consider China and Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan???

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  145. 109. 141.Comment by gary gulrud (e2cef3) — 3/19/2014 @ 11:05 pm and 3/20/2014 @ 8:20 pm

    The Inmarsat 3 was launched in 1998 about the time I was transitioning from hardware to software engineering.

    Probably the era of Pentium IV, and Windows NT.

    For business. Ordinary computers had Windows 95b or 98.

    Nonvolatile RAM chips probably held a few kilobytes.

    But probably everything the satellite got was transmitted to the ground. Why would they have the satellite retain data? If there was a problem, they’d want to be able to diagnose it.

    This was before flash memories, like your thumbdrive.

    I got my first thumb drive I think in 2008, when some computers were not equipped with floppy drives.

    But they were around longer. There’s even a way for Windows 95 – if you are very careful – if you don’t follow the exact procedure you’ll destroy the operating system – to access USB drives.

    Bet the program space is a couple of MB.

    So it’s simple. But that doesn’t mean that the data and a complete record of anything that was sent or received was not transmitted to earth.

    Now there were storage limitations, too, on the ground. But that would have become trivial by 2014, so that even if originally it wasn’t all saved – even the meaningless data – for some time, it would be now, just like you can use a much much bigger SD card that people originally used in your older digital cameras.

    However, my SWAG is that no one remains who has talked to the original programmer, had his number on some rolodex in the attic, and the documentation of the Sat-Com protocols are dog-eared monographs, some of which are no longer extant as the microfiche was tossed on the trash heap ages ago.

    It’s only 15 years ago. All you need is information on the database format. This could even be figured out relatively easily if you didn’t know. It’s not a secret code.

    And you could argue also maybe that’s why it took Inmarsat from Saturday to Monday to begin their analysis.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  146. NB: There’s some confusion about what kind of information you could get from the satellite:

    1) The Wall Street Journal article yesterday says that the satellite had not only the distance, but the angle (citing Inmarsat Senior Vice President Chris McLaughlin (article by Andy Pasztor, Jon Ostrower and James Hookway.)

    BUT…

    2) The New York Times said yesterday on its map that the only data avalable was the distance!

    I think if you had the angle as well as the distance, you’d have the approximate location.

    I think the data is accurate, and that explains why the Malaysian government was so reluctant to accept it, and may have accepted it but only if they could create a wide search area.

    There must be 5:11 and 6:11 and 7:11 pings, which alone, given an assumed constant speed of around 600 miles per hour, should enable you to calculate the diatance, and they possibly had the angle as well.

    I assume the Australian government has that information, and that’s how they calculated it flight path – how else could tghey have calculated it – that was before the satellite imagery was spotted – but I also think that, according to that information, they are looking in the wrong place, too far east and south, even with assumed ocean currents that would carry it 250 miles away.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  147. Another thing: I thought I heard yesterday that the 79 foot long piece of debris was identified as a freighter, although ABC News correspondent David Wright didn’t say that the American P-8 had specifically identified it as the satellite debris, only that hey had seen it, and they had seen a pod of dolphins (which might be the 16 foot piece of debris.)

    But the search is still going on, and the Norweigian freighter carrying automobiles (if that is the same ship the P-8 spotted) has been recruited to look for the debris!!

    What are the measurements on that Norweigian freighter? Would about 80 feet long be right? Does anyone know? And what was its position on March 16?

    I mean, it might be looking for itself!

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  148. 148 Comment by nk (dbc370) — 3/21/2014 @ 7:09 am

    .*the ability to do it* Conceal it. Clamp down on the information leaking out.

    Indonesia is not longer ruled by Suharto.

    That’s got to be aCommunist country.

    But you have to consider also: the Malaysian government ahs also got to know in that case.

    There are definite signs of a cover-up, of course.

    The Malaysian government did not want to use the satellite data initially (which may be a sign that it is accurate) and may have degraded what could be deduced from it.

    We have to also consider that it must ahev started out as a hijacking. Concealing a hijacking might be a motive if that was related to somebody making a corrupt or paronage appointment and they knew quickly what happened because a key person involved vanished.

    Concealing that some other country shot it down – why would Malaysia want to protect that country? Blackmail?

    Malaysia itself? The plane would have to have doubled back – posisble – but could that really be concealed in Malaysia? It’s not a Communist country, like Vietnam.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  149. It sounds, from an artivle in the new York Times was somewhat north of the enw search area, so what was seen in the satellite photo was not the freighter. But maybe it was what the P-8 saw.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  150. This article in the Wall Street Journal has some of the excuses that came from people in the Malaysian government for not accepting the Inmarsat data so quickly: (there’s more online than there was in the printed paper)

    WSJ Mar 20, 2014, page A9: Critical Data Was Delayed in Search for Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight Investigators Are Still Working to Recover From the Delay

    Another government official said Malaysia was cautious about revealing and acting on the data because “we don’t want to upset anybody with round after round of confusing information.” …

    …One person said Malaysia chose not to disclose what it considered raw data, preferring to check it first with international partners.

    Mr. Najib, the prime minister, had instructed his officials early on that all information coming in be corroborated with agencies such as the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board and the Federal Aviation Administration before releasing the information publicly, Malaysian officials say. They say that was intended to minimize red herrings in the search.

    Complicating matters, Chinese satellite images released last Wednesday showed suspected floating debris from the plane. Though the images turned out to be dead ends, they distracted investigators and delayed announcement of Inmarsat’s findings, according to one person close to the situation.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  151. More:

    Inmarsat officials, meanwhile, became concerned the data weren’t being acted upon quickly enough to help overhaul the search, according to a person familiar with the sequence of events. It turned last Wednesday to U.K. security authorities to more quickly disseminate the data, according to two industry officials. Malaysia Airlines, in turn, instructed SITA to use the U.K. Air Accidents Investigation Branch as the primary conduit for Inmarsat’s data, one of these officials said.

    Publicly, Malaysian officials gave little new information. Asked last Thursday what data from the aircraft investigators were relying on, Malaysia Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said “no more systems from the plane” had provided information about the jet’s whereabouts.That day, Malaysia’s acting transport minister said that “whenever there are new details they must be corroborated.”

    Throughout this process, the basic theory and underlying data from Inmarsat didn’t change significantly, according to three people briefed on the investigation.Rather, the days were spent verifying data and attempting to combine it with estimated fuel consumption to derive more-precise projections of how far the plane could have flown.

    I think maybe the opposite is the case. They ended up with an arc, which only used distance at 8:11 am Malaysian time, but excluded a whole area near Malaysia, and Indochina.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  152. copy of 18 on random links: (with typos corrected, slightly edited, and split in two.

    16. Comment by MD in Philly (f9371b) — 3/21/2014 @ 10:20 am

    And Rushbo has in his hands a document that supposedly is a summary from Chinese intelligence, sent to the Russians, that the Malaysian 777 was intercepted and escorted to Diego Garcia by US forces to get something or someone on the aircraft.

    Clearly disinformation from Putin.

    I’ve been getting the feeling for some time – I haven’t mentioned it – that the disinformation we’ve been getting sounds Russian.

    What I can’t figure out is why Putin would want to do this.

    This is not the sort of disinformation that would divert U.S. military assets – this is aimed at the public, and aimed at creating an alternative (anti-US by the way) theory for the loss of the plane)

    Did some associate of the Russian government have something to do with the loss of the plane? Does somebody in the Malaysian government who is covering this up ties to Russia?

    I know Putin sometimes supports terrorism (he was probably responsible for the 1999 bombing in Moscow attributed to Chechens that had a large role in convincing Yeltsin to turn over power to him.

    Could he have been involved in the original incident? This would be, though, a little departure form him, and it is not clear how hw would have wanted to exploit this, had the hijacking gone off as planned.

    Maybe there is some Russian involvement, but there were some triple crosses here

    =============================================

    BTW, notice that all these conspiracy theories have the passengers still alive?

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  153. md: But I’m told by my reliable sources that if such a thing happened, it would be too hard to keep all of the US troops with knowledge of the event from leaking information in this day and age.

    Same thing with the story of the Normandie shotting down TWA Flight 800.

    As nk says, it’s only a country like Vietnam that could hide this.

    Which also means, though, that Malaysia couldn’t know this and hide this.

    Very strange that the arc eliminates Malaysia, western Indonesia Indochina and Thailand.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  154. Another crazy theory or two with the passngers still alive (or at least the plane still intact.)

    http://spectator.org/articles/58374/airborne-hunt-red-october

    It’s an airplane! It has to land. It can’t stay out of an airport for two weeks!! It’s not a Zeppelin.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  155. It takes about 4 hoirs to fly one way to and from the new (and wrong) search area from Australia, and planes have only about 2 hours there. they were trying to stagger them.

    The buoys being dropped can not reveal water currents but can detect the black box pings – at least if they are not too far down.

    Range under water is about 12,000 feet. Different figures have been given for the ocean depth.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  156. 146. ” the only reason it is excluded from the arc is what? ”

    There have been multiple posts here noting that the POR Sat-Com coverage touches the immaculate corridor over that region, bifurcated by the Equator.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  157. 161. What are you saying?

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  158. 160. It takes about 4 hoirs to fly one way to and from the new (and wrong) search area from Australia, and planes have only about 2 hours there. they were trying to stagger them.

    The buoys being dropped can not reveal water currents but can detect the black box pings – at least if they are not too far down.

    Range under water is about 12,000 feet. Different figures have been given for the ocean depth.

    Comment by Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 3/21/2014 @ 11:50 am

    I like this. It almost makes sense. Especially the part about flying flying four hours and having two hours left on station.

    and planes have only about 2 hours there. they were trying to stagger them…

    Steve57 (ab7166)

  159. What are you saying?

    Comment by Sammy Finkelman (798a49) — 3/21/2014 @ 1:25 pm

    I’m saying if your maritime patrol aircraft can only stay on station for two hours, your maritime patrol aircraft sucks.

    Steve57 (ab7166)

  160. After flying four hours. Which is the wrong way from Australia.

    Jiminy Christmas.

    Steve57 (ab7166)

  161. Not that. I can’t understand this from gary gulrud @ 161:

    161.146. ” the only reason it is excluded from the arc is what? ”

    There have been multiple posts here noting that the POR Sat-Com coverage touches the immaculate corridor over that region, bifurcated by the Equator

    What I found was a Wall Street Journal article that says the pings were made when the automaed reporting systems were shut down.

    They originated, or were triggered, by ground stations, which transmitted a ping up to the orbiting satellite, which is above the equator.

    Then it was relayed to the aircraft below. (how? Broadcast?)

    Then Flight 370 transmitted a return ping back up to Inmarsat, which in turn relayed it to the ground station.

    The article says this is enough information to plot the 777′s speed, altitude and changing path, except that each ping could come from two points on the globe, because they are the same angle and distance from the satellite.

    I think either they know exactly, or they know nothing.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  162. 165. Comment by Steve57 (ab7166) — 3/21/2014 @ 1:52 pm

    After flying four hours. Which is the wrong way from Australia.

    They fly four hores west, stick around tw hours, and fly four hours back to base.

    The weather should be good Saturday, but not Sunday. But this is not where Australia previously calculated the plane to have gone.

    In the meantime they have found nothing, not even a seat cushion.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  163. The article also said:

    Recent upgrades to the Inmarsat satellite constellation make it capable of receiving detailed position, altitude and speed data embedded in its pings to aircraft flying below.

    However, the 12-year-old Boeing jetliner wasn’t configured to broadcast those definitive points of data, people being briefed on the investigation say.

    So what do they know from the pings?

    Because the angle and distance of the aircraft relative to the orbiting satellite changed as the jet flew over the Earth’s surface, each ping to Flight 370 gave Malaysian officials, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Federal Aviation Administration and the U.K.’s Air Accidents Investigation Branch enough information to plot the 777′s speed, altitude and changing path.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  164. Flash… it’s teh Koch Brothers who took teh plane.

    Colonel Haiku (8d508b)

  165. I have no idea how to respond. Boeings have been making it to Tokyo and back for 70 years.

    Steve57 (ab7166)

  166. The weather should be good Saturday, but not Sunday. But this is not where Australia previously calculated the plane to have gone.

    I think maybe it was a Tuesday.

    Steve57 (ab7166)

  167. We cannot understimate the possibility of Karl Rove’s hand in all of this.

    Elephant Stone (6a6f37)

  168. And the Browning Sweet Sixteen.

    Steve57 (ab7166)

  169. “I think either they know exactly, or they know nothing.”

    It is good to narrow the possibilities down.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  170. 166. I’m saying the IOR satellite has sole coverage over the Indian Ocean per the diagrams repeatedly linked in these threads, last at 106.

    Because the POR satellite shares coverage over the excluded portion of the arc, and no transmissions were observed by that satellite from 1:07 AM GMT on, the plane could not have transited that portion of the corridor.

    Or so we are lead to believe.

    Why does one subject us to such tedium without the slightest effort to understand the particulars?

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  171. They fly four hores west, stick around tw hours, and fly four hours back to base.

    Yeah, Sammy. Cuz wheh Whuz young dumb and …whatever **** I did this.

    Steve57 (ab7166)

  172. This is what Rush Limbaugh said today on the plane, as md talked about:

    http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2014/03/21/why_not_the_grim_reaper_and_a_cnn_psychic_have_theories_on_the_missing_plane

    Rush Limbaugh said the explosions of lithium ion batteries don’t have an explanation. Actually I do have an explanation, although I don’t the occasional nuclear reaction will cause too much damage, and certainly should not destroy the airplanes systems before anyone can react.

    This is what goes wrong with lithium ion batteries:

    It’s actually the same thing that Fleischmann and Pons discovered in the 1980s — in fact they actually first encountered this in the 1960s: cold fusion. In the form of sudden unexpected small explosions. I stress small. The worst effect, in fact, is not an explosion, but a fire.

    Fleischmann and Pons thought that hydrogen atoms were fusing together when brought into close proximity inside palladium. This was not actually what was happening.

    An article in the November 2012 issue of Discover (I think) explains what might really have happened.

    It wasn’t the palladium, it was the lithium.

    When protons (that’s hydrogen ions) are put into a strong electrical field, some of the
    electrons merge with the proton (hydrogen nuclei) to create neutrons.

    Neutrons have now been discovered in the aftermath of lightning.

    Now loose neutrons have a half life of about 20 minutes, after which they decay back into a proton and an electron.

    But before that, they can enter atoms and create isotopes.

    One of the atoms neutrons easily enter into is lithium.

    The equation is: H + e = neutron + Li -> Be + e

    The lithium, with an extra neutron quickly decays, emitting a beta particle (an electron) to become beryllium.

    Beryllium is very unusual it that it does not accept neutrons. in fact it repels them.

    The beryllium isotope then quickly decays into 2 helium particles.

    Net effect: Cold fusion.

    The hotter the battery gets, the more neutrons are
    absorbed by the lithium.

    At some point so much heat is generated that the battery explodes.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  173. Comment by gary gulrud (384f70) — 3/21/2014 @ 3:01 pm

    Because the POR satellite shares coverage over the excluded portion of the arc, and no transmissions were observed by that satellite from 1:07 AM GMT on, the plane could not have transited that portion of the corridor.

    I thought the reason was the plane could simpley not have flown west of the satellite. Different reasons have been given for excluding the spot in the middle of the arc.

    Would that really be the place a different satellite might have recorded the ping? Who says that?

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  174. It sounds like Michelle Obama’s entourage has already worn out its welcome in China.
    The staff at the hotel are going to start telling Michelle to “get moving.”
    Like, out of the country.
    Or something.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2586367/Beijing-hotel-workers-fed-Obama-entourage-3400-square-foot-8-350-night-suite-inconveniencing-pretty-ladys-mother-barking-staff.html

    Elephant Stone (6a6f37)

  175. Day is breaking off the western coast of Australia as the third day of searching in this area begins. The Asutralian PM says the satellite pictures might be shipping containers, but the search will go on until the wreckage or black boxes are found. The US P-8 will not participate today – it is down for maintanence and resting of the crew, but now they have 2 Japanese planes, 3 Chinese planes, 3 Chinese ships and a Chinese icebreaker.

    It takes 3-4 hours to fly out to the search area and they can only spend 2-3 hours before flying back.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  176. In other news, Putin may be planning to invade eastern Ukraine. The second round of sanctions has caused the Russian stock market to drop – if there is an invasion, there will be a third round.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  177. 177. Unalloyed gibberish. If you were to buy a clue you would throw it away and keep the wrapper.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  178. Somehow a dude at CNN, a reporter type, has gotten his mitties on the Inmarsat data and is talking about a flyover of Bangladesh or Myanmar.

    Finally.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  179. Eh. Anyone notice the Kidd and the Pinkney were checking the waters for that Malaysian airplane?

    Just curious if anyone noticed what nice guys we are. Americans.

    And pretty bad assed too.

    Signed, Steve57

    http://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcsaoffblock&type=A001US0&p=johny cash ring of fire

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Pinckney_(DDG-91)

    You know, the Mackintosh is clearing lanes in the Great Lakes. Right now.

    Steve57 (ab7166)

  180. Mackinwaw. Not Mackintosh.

    http://www.uscg.mil/d9/cgcMackinaw/

    Scottish names confuse me.

    Steve57 (ab7166)

  181. Whatever.

    Steve57 (ab7166)

  182. 177. Samuel, electrons orbit the matter of our daily experience. When electrons are excited they exchange photons. Photons are the bosons of QED, quantum electromagnetic dynamics.

    The entire domain of chemistry, of heat and light, electricity and walking into a wall and bumping our nose, of car crashes, of swimming in water, all of our experience is that of photon interactions.

    The danger of lithium batteries is chemistry.

    The domain of a free neutron disintegrating into a photon, and electron a neutrino and a high energy photon is nuclear physics, QCD, quantum chromo-dynamics. The boson involved is the gluon.

    To cause a gluon to be exchanged, a nuclear reaction, one must accelerate a free electron to very high velocity and smash it against, for example, the color florescent pigments of your old analog color TV.

    Cold fusion has never been experimentally demonstrated.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  183. 187. Oh, I forgot, lighting a match, sticking your finger in a flame, sending a rocket into orbit. All chemistry.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  184. 184. Yes, particularly the Kidd.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  185. 184. Right now they’re talking to the Exec on the Blue Ridge about the buoys dropped to gauge the current at depth and radioing its position.

    A paid expert 777 pilot who’s been backing a mechanical failure is now calling for a land search. With him the Air France 447 experts are saying a wing wouldn’t be afloat by now.

    Towing a search platform at the end of a 5 to 7 mile long cable in the Southern Ocean isn’t feasible.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  186. And now on Lemon’s show they are launching into the reporter’s scenario mentioned at 183.

    ‘Everyone’ liked the southern corridor because it was all at sea.

    But now, the southern route went right over Indonesia. They said it didn’t pass over and they’re not allowing overflights.

    So why not check out the north? Bangladesh hasn’t two dimes to rub together. Myanmar is not much richer.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  187. So now we hear that two days after the disappearance, Inmarsat gave the Malaysians two sets of coordinates as the near corners of respective search parallelograms.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  188. 182… a case of the deaf leading the blind?

    Colonel Haiku (8d508b)

  189. There’s a Wikipedia article about this now:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370

    I notice that it says tehre was 7 pings, starting at 2:11 Malaysian time.

    Why not a ping at 1:11? I think maybe that means the ACARS system was not turned off then, so the window for that would be 1:11 to 1:37 not 1:07 to 1:37.

    There are two somewhat separate mysteries here (maybe three)

    1. What happened on the plane?

    2. What was the reason the plane set off on a course for Antarctica – if that’s what it did.

    3. What is the reason for the coverup by Malaysia? I think it is obvious they did not want people to find the black boxes, but why?

    I don’t think it is because it was shot down by Vietnam. It was on the western side of Malaysia, heading north off the cost of Thailand, when it was last detected. Thailand also belatedly made available radar – did they not know more?

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  190. The only reason I can think of for the pilot to fly for hours before committing suicide by plane is that he wanted to make it less likely that the investigators would know what happened, and thus his family would be more likely to collect on any insurance policy.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  191. 177. and replies at 182 and 187.

    Comment by gary gulrud (384f70) — 3/21/2014 @ 4:39 pm

    Samuel, electrons orbit the matter of our daily experience. When electrons are excited they exchange photons. Photons are the bosons of QED, quantum electromagnetic dynamics.

    I wouldn’t go into that kind of detail. Electrons can gain or lose only specified quanta of energy, which are the differences between different orbital patterns. OK.

    The entire domain of chemistry, of heat and light, electricity and walking into a wall and bumping our nose, of car crashes, of swimming in water, all of our experience is that of photon interactions.

    I’d consider the whole thing a force field. What we are dealing with is electron fields. That creates an appearance of solidity.

    The danger of lithium batteries is chemistry.

    When they burst into fire, that is chemistry.

    But why does the whole thing start in the first place??

    That’s where cold fusion comes in.

    You talk about a neutron disintegrating, but I am talking about an electron bursting into a proton, creating a neutron, which normally will quickly decay (half life: 20 minutes) without any visible effects, but here after the creation of a neutron, we get its subsequent capture by lithium atoms, and a two-stage decay into alpha particles and heat.

    Neutrons are created in the presence of a very strong electrical field, and hydrogen atoms (protons) and it happens every time there is lightning, and we don’t have a theory to explain it, but it is a fact.

    http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/03/nuclear-lightening/

    Lightning strikes produce free neutrons, and we’re not sure how

    Low energy neutrons not due to cosmic rays or any other previously known source.

    For the last 30 years there has been a very small controversy rumbling in the hallowed halls of physics. Way back in 1985, scientists from the then-USSR noted that whenever a thunder storm passed over their neutron detector, they observed an increased flux of neutrons …

    This production of neutrons has also been demonstrated in the laboratory.

    http://physics.aps.org/synopsis-for/10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.115003

    What I am saying is, that this is also what Fleischman and Pons noticed in 1987. When they had sporadic, unpredictable little explosions, which they wrongly attributed to the presence of palladium, instead of lithium, it was the same thing.

    And this is what causes these spontaneous explosions and fires in lithium ion batteries.

    I don’t think this would produce any radioactive isotopes.

    Cold fusion has never been experimentally demonstrated.

    They weren’t doing the right thing. And it somewhat unpredictable.

    Malaysian Ailines Flight 370 was carrying a unusually large numberof lithium ion batteries.

    These batteries are not allowed on American (USA) airlines at all at the same when passengers are aboard.

    I don’t say that that’s what caused the problems with the plane, or that there was a fire, and I tend to think there wasn’t..

    But if there was one of these lithium ion battery explosions and fire aboard that plane, cold fusion is what would have caused it.

    Cold fusion is what causes ALL mysterious lithium ion battery fires and explosions.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  192. There’s one more thing: TIME MAgazine says the ilot could also have turned off the black boxes!

    That would not erase what wa son it till that point – that can only be done on the ground.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  193. Fire can’t melt steel.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  194. 195. The only reason I can think of for the pilot to fly for hours before committing suicide by plane is that he wanted to make it less likely that the investigators would know what happened, and thus his family would be more likely to collect on any insurance policy.

    Comment by DRJ (a83b8b) — 3/23/2014 @ 8:36 am

    Sammy tells us a maritime patrol aircraft can only fly four hours and spend two hours on station.

    MH370 was hours in the air.

    How is this possible?

    Steve57 (4507bb)

  195. MH370 was Seven hours in the air.

    Optical ball strikes again.

    Steve57 (4507bb)

  196. At least.

    Steve57 (4507bb)

  197. 196. “I wouldn’t go into that kind of detail.”

    Sammy the range of the gluon is the atomic nucleus. Unless one is able to force a particle into that range, an interaction cannot occur.

    You have not, nor are you able to show such an event is possible let alone a chain of reaction.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  198. Comment by Steve57 (4507bb) — 3/23/2014 @ 12:11 pm

    Sammy tells us a maritime patrol aircraft can only fly four hours and spend two hours on station.

    No, no. no. It needs to fly approximately 4 hours there and 4 hours back, and can only spend about 2 hours searching that part of the Indian Ocean.

    The Chinese have now reported another satellite picture (I think closer to the original Australian track.)

    It is said to have been already searched before it became public. It is also said that they spotted seaweed. I think this part might be too big to float. A wing wouldn’t. I don’t know how big a tail is.

    A Boeing 777 can be loaded with enough fuel to fly for 16 hours, in which case it would have been able to fly to the South Pole and come up on the other side and reach South America, but it would normally have been expected to have only about 8 hours worth of fuel – two hours more than its regularly scheduled flight.

    It was scheduled to leave Kuala Lumpur at 12:35 and arrive in Beijing at 6:30. Adding two more hours takes you to 8:30. Given that it didn’t actually take off till 12:41 adds about another 5-10 minutes.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  199. Comment by gary gulrud (384f70) — 3/23/2014 @ 12:18 pm

    Sammy the range of the gluon is the atomic nucleus. Unless one is able to force a particle into that range, an interaction cannot occur.

    The powerful electrical field will do that.

    Lightning does create neutrons.

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/03/27/cue-oliver-m-lightning-makes-free-neutrons/

    Oh Dear. After blowing it off as not important for over 1/4 Century, non-Russian scientists have finally admitted that lightning can cause free neutrons (and all the hand waving explanations don’t explain how…)

    This one can go in a lot of directions. The Electric Universe folks ought to have a field day with it (all sorts of things can start happening when you have free neutrons wandering around looking for a home). Will there be some kind of neutron conversion to ‘other stuff’? Maybe some into energy?

    …..Now, for my home lab, can I just set up a big Tesla Coil and get a nice free neutron source? Could I ‘drizzle’ them over depleted Uranium and get something more interesting? What happens when they hit a metal lattice loaded with protons? Might a strong electric discharge into a hydrogen / deuterium doped metal lattice knock loose a neutron or two, to drift into that metal and make a bit of fusion energy?

    Oh dear, oh dear… I think I hear the sound of frozen paradigms thawing or even breaking…

    The only thing is, it is when the neutron encounters lithium that you get something interesting.

    With lithium ion batteries that store a lot of electricity.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  200. Sammy, I know what a triple 7 can be loaded with. Which is why I said it could make it to Africa. If it had a full bag.

    Steve57 (4507bb)

  201. https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/lightning/faq/

    How many volts and watts are in lightning?

    Lightning can have 100 million to 1 billion volts, and contains billions of watts.

    Lithium ion batteries are less powerful, but the electrons are more circumscribed where they can go.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  202. One thing they are talking about is the Payne Stewart scenario, but a little better than that is a Helios 737, where there was a slow decompression.

    The pilot and co-pilot was knoked out but a flight attendant had an oxygen bottle, and sort of flew the pllane for 2 1/2 hours until it ran out of fuel.

    In this case, the plane would either had to cross back over Indonesia, or fly northwest till reaching about 90 degrees east longitude and 15 degrees north longitude, and then fly more or less due south for about 6 more hours till recahing close to latitude 45 degrees south.

    Who was in control of the plane?

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  203. 204. Sammy, the atom’s emptiness, the distance between its nucleus with respect to its electrons is much greater than that of the Solar system.

    A free neutron’s lifetime before disintegration is 20 seconds.

    The probability of encountering a nucleus during that lifetime is nonexistent.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  204. The pilot and co-pilot was knoked out but a flight attendant had an oxygen bottle, and sort of flew the pllane for 2 1/2 hours until it ran out of fuel.

    Where do you come up with this?

    Steve57 (4507bb)

  205. I put the P-3 thingy on the wrong thread.

    Still, Orions have remained airborne for more than 21 hours.

    Steve57 (4507bb)

  206. The thing ABC News’s David Wright and otehrs were reporting was that planes could be over the search area only 2-3 hours because the travel time was 4 hours there and 4 hours back.

    Sammy Finkelman (3bb3ae)

  207. The Boeing 777 can fly…

    http://www.boeing.com/boeing/commercial/777family/pf/pf_300product.page

    …at .84 mach

    The marpat aircraft can fly longer.

    Steve57 (4507bb)

  208. Steve, responded to your mis-post on the endurance of a P-3, by asking was that with, or without, aerial refueling?

    Also, in a PCS back in ’64, flew on a C-135 based at Andrews that frequently carried McNamara from DC to Saigon, non-stop (about 16-hrs IIRC what the A-C said). Of course, those puppies were all “gas tank” below the floor-boards as they were converted tankers – no windows, and all the seat faced aft with luggage nets swaying overhead.

    askeptic (2bb434)

  209. askeptic, it was a New Zealand airaft. I don’t know if they have tankers. I don’t think they do.

    Steve57 (4507bb)

  210. I hate this optical mouse. I know it seems like an excuse. But it does this cut and paste thing so fast I can’t pick up on it.

    Steve57 (4507bb)

  211. Nuclear reactions are a scale of numbers game.

    A cup of water has 10^23 atoms, an unimaginably large number.

    All isotopes of U and Pt are unstable and are constantly disintegrating, i.e, radioactive. The products are energetic particles, but particularly, radioactive elements of generally shorter half-life, i.e., even more radioactive.

    An uncontrolled chain reaction created by a fissile weapon is guaranteed because one is confining a huge number of radioactive materials, and nuclear interactions, in close proximity.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  212. Pu not Pt.

    gary gulrud (384f70)

  213. “The pilot and co-pilot was knocked out but a flight attendant had an oxygen bottle, and sort of flew the pllane for 2 1/2 hours until it ran out of fuel.”

    209. Comment by Steve57 (4507bb) — 3/23/2014 @ 12:58 pm

    Where do you come up with this?

    I think that was Meet the Press.

    No, it was Fox News Sunday:

    http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/fox-news-sunday-chris-wallace/2014/03/23/inside-search-flight-370-gov-john-kasich-reflects-ohios-economic-turnaround

    WALLACE: Alan, there is also a good deal of speculation about what’s called the Payne Stewart scenario, because that’s how the famous golfer ended up dying. However this event started, that in the end all of the people on the plane, including the pilots and the hijackers, were incapacitated and the plane just kept flying on autopilot until it ran out of gas and crashed into the ocean.

    How likely do you think that is?

    DIEHL: Well, that is certainly a possibility. I have to agree with Congressman McCaul, everything is still on the table.

    There is even a better example of that and that was with a Helios Greek 737. They had a slow decompression. The pilots passed out along with the passengers and a flight attendant who they have these walk around oxygen bottles and masks ended going to the cockpit. He flew the aircraft until it ran out of gas 2 1/2 hours later

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  214. This was on August 14, 2005. Here’s a Wikipedia article about that:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

    Two F-16 fighter aircraft from the Hellenic Air Force 111th Combat Wing were scrambled from Nea Anchialos Air Base to establish visual contact.[17] They intercepted the passenger jet at 11:24 and observed that the first officer was slumped motionless at the controls and the captain’s seat was empty.[18] They also reported that oxygen masks were dangling in the passenger cabin.[16]
    At 11:49, flight attendant Andreas Prodromou entered the cockpit and sat down in the captain’s seat.[19] Prodromou held a UK Commercial Pilot License,[20] but was not qualified to fly the Boeing 737. Crash investigators concluded that Prodromou’s experience was insufficient for him to gain control of the aircraft under the circumstances.[19]

    In any case, he did not have time to save the stricken aircraft. Almost as soon as he entered the cockpit, the left engine flamed out due to fuel exhaustion,[19] the plane left the holding pattern and started to descend.[21] Ten minutes after the loss of power from the left engine, the right engine also flamed out,[21] and just before 12:04 the aircraft crashed into hills near Grammatiko.[21] There were no survivors.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  215. Parts from the plane may or may not have been spotted.

    Story about the pilot receiving a call shortly before takeoff from a burner phone purchased by a woman using a fake name, may be disinformation.

    Sammy Finkelman (798a49)

  216. http://www.theatlantic.com/james-fallows/

    At the same time, they have helped the public separate the possible-but-unconfirmed from the FantasyLand-wild improbabilities. The clearest indication of this last category is the “radar shadow” hypothesis, which I’ll link to later. Or a prominent official’s straight-faced assertion that the plane might be headed to Israel on an attack mission.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  217. http://www.tjradcliffe.com/?p=1364

    “Why Speculation About MH370 is Evidence of Innumeracy”

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  218. Possible debris was sighted a few days ago — and then Malaysia acknowledged that the analysis that the plane headed south toward the southern Indian ocean – was correct, and they stopped bashing the pilots, too.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  219. The Malaysian changed some more facts the other day: The transcript was wrong, and the voice from cockpit did NOT say “all right, good night.” but only more standard Air Traffic Control talk, without the words “all right” Also, they are not so sure it was the co-pilot after all.

    I think there have beem struggles within the Malaysian government with one side of it trying to cover up the facts – trying not to have the black boxes found.

    Usually the Malaysian government comes forward with a correction when they would lose all credibility, among other nations, by sticking to the old position.

    Malaysia claimed to have checked out the passengers who were Malaysian nationals, now they say they will look again. Nobody else got any access to any information about them that they could investigate. By the way, the FBI said there’s absolutely nothing on the pilot’s hard disk that would point to his guilt. I think the Malaysian government has complained bout them leaking it.

    Meanwhile I don’t know if the stories about the pilot’s family life are completely made up or not. Supposedly he took a phone call two hours before take-off from a cell phone that had bene purchased by a woman using a false name – or maybe he didn’t.

    He was going to divorce his wife, or had been summoned by a religious court – or maybe he wasn’t. These leaks appear once in various publications – and that’s it. Nobody seems to be abe to confirm or deny. If somebody is leaking disinformation, that’s avery bad sign. Remember also the Maldives “sighting” published by a newspaper close to he Malaysian government – or did that first apear in a Maldives paper, and f so was it honest?

    Sammy Finkelman (ebf45c)

  220. The Malaysian government turned over the data from Inmarsat to the Chinese government (which apparently is interested in finding the plane, for whatever reasons)

    I think the Chinese may very well have located the black box, and it’s not exactly in the last search area, but somewhat close, which makes sense.

    It’s probably possible to calculate pretty precisely where the plane went down. They not only have these hourly signals (which can actually tell you where the plane was wihin a few miles, when he calculations are properly done, and ALL the information is used) but there is another pioce of information: an emergency signal that went off at 8:19, but was not completed.

    That means the plane crashed into the water at high speed at 8:19 am, Malaysian time, 12:19 GMT Saturday, March 8, 2014, 8 minutes after the last ping.

    Fuel ran out earlier than they ahd been thinking before bnecause the plane was traveling somewhat slower (maybe lower) than initially thought.

    Sammy Finkelman (ebf45c)

  221. yet another enigma, wrapped inside a riddle, inside a mystery;

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/04/breaking-missing-mh370-purposely-skirted-indonesia-to-avoid-radar/

    narciso (3fec35)

  222. The Malaysian government turned over the data from Inmarsat to the Chinese government (which apparently is interested in finding the plane, for whatever reasons)

    For whatever reason? Are you serious? 154 of the 239 passengers were Chinese! If that was the number of Americans on board, would you be wondering why the US would be interested in finding the plane?

    Amalgamated Cliff Divers, Local 157 (f7d5ba)

  223. The Chinese have been misdirecting us, the Malaysians from the word go, I think the Aussies
    are the most trustworthy, who knows anymore,

    narciso (3fec35)

  224. who knows anymore,
    Comment by narciso (3fec35) — 4/6/2014 @ 11:46 am

    I concur wholeheartedly.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  225. SF: The Malaysian government turned over the data from Inmarsat to the Chinese government (which apparently is interested in finding the plane, for whatever reasons)

    Comment by Amalgamated Cliff Divers, Local 157 (f7d5ba) — 4/6/2014 @ 11:34 am

    For whatever reason? Are you serious? 154 of the 239 passengers were Chinese! If that was the number of Americans on board, would you be wondering why the US would be interested in finding the plane?

    But the Chinese government is a military dictatorship (maybe in part a kleptocracy ad maybe changing) disguised as a Communist dictatorship, disguised as a country that lives under constitution!!

    The Chinese government doesn’t care about its people – except maybe to extent necessary to maintain order and maintain prosperity (which is needed to make it easier to build a bigger army, and a base for people to get rich. Trickle up, you know.)

    You think if they cared about their people they would have maintained that 1-child policy (for Han Chinese) so long, and then when they get get ready to modify it, been so slow to modify it?

    You think they would let farmers be cheated in real estate?

    You think they would execute people for organ donations (that may be changing – some people in government became aware they might be prisoners one day)

    But perhaps, one or more of the people on board might have been important, or they have family members with good connections. It’s not the average person that takes long airplane trips out of China. They are all among the top Chinese 1% or 10%

    http://www.cottm.com/news-center/news/china%E2%80%99s-rapid-outbound-tourism-growth-shows-no-signs-stopping

    About 100 million traveled abroad in 2012, which probably includes a lot of repeat travelers..

    That’s out of a population of about 1.35 billion

    It’s about 7%. Maybe 15 to 20% if you tale a figure over several years, but that would be organized tourism

    Sammy Finkelman (3bb3ae)

  226. ?

    Amalgamated Cliff Divers, Local 157 (f7d5ba)

  227. 229. Comment by narciso (3fec35) — 4/6/2014 @ 11:46 am

    The Chinese have been misdirecting us
    they were reporting satellite pictures where the plane did not go down.

    They may have been misdirecting their own people – trying to give them hope, and calm them down and maybe there is someone among the relatives, close or distant, who has somewhat moderate influence.

    The Chinese government definitely wants to show results, but this can go on only for so long.

    They organized a few carefully controlled demonstrations against the Malaysian embassy in Beijing, but that might have been a genuine effort to pressure the Malaysian government, rather than something to mollify the passenger’s families.

    And why would they need to be mollified? Did somebody do something to get people to go on that trip? Of course Chinese people think their government is lying – it always lies, so there is probably a great need to mollify people and cast blame elsewhere.

    Sammy Finkelman (3bb3ae)

  228. Sam the Sham’s algos are slipping again.

    redc1c4 (abd49e)

  229. narciso: the Malaysians [have been misdirecting us] from the word go,

    Yes, and that requires an explanation.

    The Malaysian government is reported divided.

    The only thing that makes sense is that the Malaysian government, or possibly only some high ranking people in the Malaysian government knows something that they don’t want us to find out.

    Most likely not something unrelated that would inadvertently be revealed by a full investigation, but something that would be discovered with the black boxes.

    But this could not have been the case from the start of the plot, because I don’t think the original intention of any hijacking would be for the plane to just vanish. Therefore, not finding the black boxes is only something that became a consideration after the plane disappeared, and I think only then did somebody important realize what had happened.

    The best way for this realization to happen suddenly would be for someone to vanish. Most likely, somebody in an important position related to the plane or security disappeared suddenly right before the plane took off.

    That somebody must have been a patronage appointment or somebody who bought the job or whose job was bought for him. Otherwise there would be no blame, or no serious personal blame for anyone.

    Sammy Finkelman (3bb3ae)

  230. I think the Aussies are the most trustworthy, who knows anymore,

    No, I think we can be reasonably certain the Aussies are the most trustworthy.

    Except when they sort of promise they’ll search forever. Does the Australian Prime Minister even understand what he is saying?

    Sammy Finkelman (3bb3ae)

  231. 232 Comment by Amalgamated Cliff Divers, Local 157 (f7d5ba) — 4/6/2014 @ 12:46 pm

    ?

    It’s not a simple matter of fact of thing for the Chinese government to be so concerned.

    Now this might be a matter of general principle, for the next time somebody from China travels aboard an international airliner.

    Stalin’s Russia Soviet Union used to pretend to be concerned about the welfare of White Russians in China in the 1930s and 1940s.

    Sammy Finkelman (3bb3ae)

  232. Comment by redc1c4 (abd49e) — 4/6/2014 @ 12:50 pm

    Sam the Sham’s algos are slipping again.

    Algorithms?

    Sammy Finkelman (3bb3ae)

  233. The search is now a farce. They are simply working to prove the plane cannot be found.

    The Chinese have force the search to abort to verify their report 3 miles above the bottom of a putative ping whose range is nominally 1-2 miles, at the end of battery certified performance.

    Meanwhile the Malaysians are working backward from the lottery pick saying undelivered radar observations prove the plane took a course evading radar.

    Unexpectedly!

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  234. It’s become a macabre game of ‘hide and go seek’ sadly,

    narciso (3fec35)

  235. 240. Continuing on ‘macabre’: Air France 447 floating debris was first found day 5, none after day 18.

    One quarter of the deceased were included in that recovery at the surface.

    Forget the satellite ‘data’ for one moment. Consider motive, mode of failure, and last known bearing. The current search area is the last place one would be looking.

    Why would speculative analysis obliterate the remaining probabilities to questions that must be answered in any case?

    gary gulrud (e2cef3)

  236. Comment by gary gulrud (e2cef3) — 4/6/2014 @ 1:09 pm

    Forget the satellite ‘data’ for one moment. Consider motive, mode of failure, and last known bearing. The current search area is the last place one would be looking.

    No, it isn’t. Because there’s one very important fact: The plane has not been detected. The pane did not land. It didn’t continue to head in that bearing. It had to make at least one more change of course, and only to places that did not have radar or were it coulf go unnoticed, even later.

    If it made several changes of course, and it did to get to its last radar sighting, no reason not to make more.

    The mystery is what could have happened so that it would fly on for six hours or so heading toward Australian Antarctic territory. and nobofy and nothing stopped that?
    The plane almost certainly did not fail, but things were turned off.

    Why would speculative analysis obliterate the remaining probabilities to questions that must be answered in any case?

    Sammy Finkelman (ebf45c)

  237. There are two reported ping sites. (the second was reported by the australians – the Chinese reported two pings in the same general (big) search area.)

    I read a newsapaper article which indicated there could be false alarms.

    Now the question is, are pings like debris? If you searched for pings without any reason to believe a plane had crashed there, would you hear some thing that could be pings?

    Debris doesn’t mean airplanes. There are many ships that sunk, or lost cargo.

    And conversely, or is it inversely, or contrapositively, if there was a black box. would you detect fleeting sounds, or something more certain?

    Sammy Finkelman (ebf45c)

  238. Australian announcement: They are not fleeting sounds, and both could be the black boxes.

    But what doesn’t make sense is this idea that “Houston” might take few days to confirm. They haven’t got a few days.

    Sammy Finkelman (ebf45c)

  239. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/08/world/asia/missing-malaysia-flight-370.html?hpw&rref=world&_r=0

    It’s the Australians who picked it up, and they probably lost the signal the first time, after some two hours, because they got too far away. They turned around and heard it again for 13 minutes. The second time they detected two separate pings.

    The locator is towed at a speed no greater than 3 1/2 miles an hour, and it takes several hours to reverse direction, and reset it. Apparently, it’s not good at all for determining direction, and they have to do it by trial and error, not to mention that the thing is moved by water currents.

    It could take several days to get a more precise location.

    This is a quite different location than the place the Chinese claimed to have detected something. That place is 375 miles away. But they excise it, saying maybe strange acoustic effects.(??)

    There may have been some kind of secret help from the United States to the Australians in determining where to look.

    (No wreckage or confirmed debris from the plane found, but we know anything on the surface could be 300 miles away or more.)

    The sea there is about 2.8 miles deep, which is about how deep the drone submarine they would use to examine the seabed can go. They won’t start it till they can get a more precise location.

    NYT doesn’t use the word drone, but “remote-controlled.”

    Sammy Finkelman (ebf45c)

  240. 177. Comment by Sammy Finkelman (798a49) — 3/21/2014 @ 3:19 pm

    Now loose neutrons have a half life of about 20 minutes, after which they decay back into a proton and an electron.

    That was what I remember reading along time ago, but I looked into a book: The God Particle: If the Universe is the Answer, What is the Question by Leon Lederman with Dick Teresi (Bantam Doubleday, 1993) and I decied to check the index and under Neutrons, there is an entry:

    half-life of, 181

    And on the top of page 181 – the very first sentence, it says the half-life of the neutron is 13.3 minutes. I think maybe it was hard to determine, and they didn’t have the correct figure for many years, or it was secret.

    Anyway, I do not think exploding lithium-ion batteries caused the probkem, but I do think there is something more than a chemical reaction going on. The main effect is heat – there never is a real explosion from the nuclear reaction, because the heat starts a fire, and that causes an epxlosion.

    I don’t think they have devised any way to stop lithium ion batteriers from overheating, because they don’t undertsnad what is going on – they just have devised a way to contain it, more or less.

    Sammy Finkelman (ebf45c)

  241. Another article from that pardy website mentioned in a recent Patterico post:

    http://topekasnews.com/courtney-love-reddit-find-malaysia-flight-370/

    Sammy Finkelman (ebf45c)

  242. 244. “HOUSTON” MIGHT TAKE A FEW DAYS TO CONFIRM.”

    “Houston” is not the city, or anything located in Houston, Texas, like NASA, – I was wondering what organization it was, and what they would have to determine and why – but Australian Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston.

    Sammy Finkelman (ebf45c)

  243. It was the lead story in the CBS morning news today. They probably did detect the pingers. what I don’t understand is why they can’t pinpoint it more precisely.

    The strength of the signal got stronger and stronger and then weaker and weaker for 2 hours. So they know the point that is closest. If they deetcted it a second time, they have a second line. You can easily draw two circles, usng a radious of equal signal strength and find locate the pinger, and the only margin of error would be the exact point the U.s. Navy ping detector wass in the water. You don’t even really need a third pass.

    Sammy Finkelman (ebf45c)

  244. Less speculation and more fact is appreciated:

    http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/world/the-depth-of-the-problem/931/

    narciso (3fec35)

  245. Another probably false story was leaked to a Malaysian newspaper the other day – about a cellphone call – this time by the co-pilot.

    He supposedly attempted to place a call – no connection was made or words exchanged – while the plane was flying back oover Malaysia.

    But this has been denied.

    If he tried, what are the probabilities that it would have failed completely, except that the attempt ws detected.

    This looks like one more attempt to blame the pilot.

    There ahas bene a definite campaign to spread false theories by people close to the gpovernment of Malaysia ever since the crash.

    Sammy Finkelman (c33275)

  246. 250. How can it be that the towed pinger locator would have had to reach a depth of 6,000 feet to hear the pings, when the pinger locater heard it when ot ws lowerd to only 4,600 feet? (and there seems agreement that that was what it heard)

    Clearly some fact(s) in the Washington Post are are wrong or unclear.

    Does it extend a further mile past wehere ot was lowered? Maybe a nearby newspaper article (to which this was a sidebar) that day made it clearer?

    Sammy Finkelman (c33275)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.7432 secs.