Patterico's Pontifications

3/18/2010

CBO Health Care Report: $138 Billion

Filed under: Health Care — DRJ @ 11:17 am



[Guest post by DRJ]

The Washington Post reports the CBO has issued its report:

“An emerging compromise on health care between House and Senate Democrats would cost $940 billion over the next decade and expand insurance coverage to an additional 32 million Americans, congressional budget analysts said Thursday. Their preliminary report suggests the two-part legislation would bring the nation closer to universal health coverage than at any time in its history.

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the measure would make insurance available to an estimated 95 percent of non-elderly citizens by dramatically expanding Medicaid, the government health program for the poor, and offering tax credits to an estimated 24 million Americans who would otherwise find it difficult to afford coverage.”

Here’s how the CBO says the legislation will impact the budget:

“The cost of expanding coverage would exceed $200 billion a year by 2019, the CBO said. But new revenue in the package, combined with savings from program cuts, would outpace the cost of coverage, reducing the federal deficit by $138 billion over the next 10 years. The savings would continue to accumulate in the decade thereafter, the CBO said, eventually slicing around $1.2 trillion from the nation’s budget gap.”

The Washington Post has an interesting chart comparing the Senate Bill with the Reconciliation Bill. According to the link, the CBO projects there are currently 54 million non-elderly uninsured Americans, and there will be 23 million uninsured under the Senate Bill and 22 million uninsured under the Reconciliation Bill. (I assume the report of 32 million covered by ObamaCare includes elderly and non-elderly Americans. Are the 22-23 million uninsured America’s illegal immigrants? Hopefully so. If not, the promise that everyone will have health insurance under ObamaCare is under the bus.)

In addition, under the CBO projections, the government will spend $65B more under the Reconciliation Bill than the Senate Bill to cover an extra 1 million Americans, resulting in an additional $20B in savings. Thus, the government will be paying an extra $65B to cover just 1 million more people, yet will only save an extra $20B. This tells me the more these programs cost and the more people they cover, the less efficient they become … so if there are cost overruns (and there will be) costs should go up even more.

SHORTER VERSION: How did the Democrats do it? A 10 year plan with $17B in costs in the first 4 years and $923B in the last 6.

— DRJ

22 Responses to “CBO Health Care Report: $138 Billion”

  1. let’s remember two great truths about government projections:

    1. programs always cost way more than estimated.
    2. taxes never generate as much revenue as expected.
    3. cost savings are never as great as projected, if they appear at all.

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  2. The ability to recognize the “dynamic” responses of taxpayers/consumers to changes in the envirnment by Congressional fiat is not allowed on Capitol Hill.
    Therefore, all revenue collections subject to increased taxes have been over-estimated; just as have projections of economic activity been over-estimated when regulation has been increased, and under-estimated when regulation and taxes have been decreased.

    The Health-Care debacle will be no different; and, if it is passed, we can expect a severe double (or more) dip to the recession lasting well into the next President’s term – because there will be a new President coming into office in 2013, you can “take it to the bank”.

    AD - RtR/OS! (7a1f69)

  3. I have some slightly used bridges for sale, maybe that can help reduce the deficit.

    The CBO math is beginning to look a lot like the UN IPCC math.

    bill-tb (541ea9)

  4. DRJ, your “shorter version” shows very well just how this “score” is a fraud on the American public. The trolls response “Ha ha, you lose.”

    Note that there are some other changes brought about by the House bill, Megan McArdle lists some of the cute fraudulent little tricks that House Democrats are using as part of the fraud just in the reconciliation bill.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  5. The country will be bankrupt with interest rates of 15% before the “benefits” start.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  6. […] Conservative: They are about to find out how stupid we really are Patterico’s Pontifications: CBO Health Care Report: $138 Billion and “Deem and Pass”: Will the Courts Allow an Unconstitutional Action to Stand? and Losing the […]

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  7. CBO estimate shows that under the senate and reconciliation bill that the uninsured in 2019 will be 23m and 22m, respectively or 5% and 6% respectively. with out either bill, there will be 54m uninsured or 19%. mathematically, the percentage should be 13%. If the CBO is off basic percentages by more than 50% – how much do you thing the estimated scoring is off. Would help if they could do fifth grade math.

    Joe (dd01fd)

  8. Are all the Democrats from River City? Is there a guy named Harold Hill running things for them? Next Lyle Lanley will come to D.C. to sell a monorail as a jobs program.

    Barney: What about us brain-dead slobs?

    Lyle Lanley: You’ll be given cushy jobs.

    MU789 (918c8e)

  9. Oh, yes, indeed.

    Those cost projections, they’ll be SPOT ON… right?

    I mean, governments have SUCH a fantastic record on estimating both the cost of a program and the revenues obtained from measures designed to pay for it…. DON’T THEY?

    “Hey, Joe, how much did we say that bill was going to cost us?”
    “Um… 347 dollars”
    “What was the final cost?”
    “743 billion dollars”
    “Close enough, then?”
    “Yeah.”

    >:(

    IgotBupkis (79d71d)

  10. P.S. We need to pass a law that calls for a fingerliterally — from a committee member and/or project supporting Congressman/Senator for every 10 billion dollars over-budget that a project goes into.

    Pretty soon, they might learn to keep their hands out of the cookie jar…

    IgotBupkis (79d71d)

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  14. Now I’m hearing Democratic shills claiming that the CBO says that the whole healthcare reform reduces the deficit – thereby confusing the scoring of the reconciliation package effects over the Senate Bill with the net effects of the entire legislation.

    Just more Democratic fraud or incompetence?

    SPQR (8475fc)

  15. Just more Democratic fraud or incompetence?”

    YES!

    AD - RtR/OS! (b083e4)

  16. Even CBO isn’t fooled by the double-counting of the Medicare “savings,” even though the rules force them to treat them as real.

    That would be roughly another trillion or so.

    And was the cost of the student-loan takeover included in the scoring? Since they’ve tossed them together? There’s another few tens of billions.

    Tully (4dce1a)

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