Posted by WLS:
This post may be overtaken by events in the days ahead, but I’ve been thinking about when/if we will see fallout in Obama’s fundraising that might be tied to the series of controversies surrounding him beginning with the Rev. Wright affair, and running through some of his policy reversals over the last couple weeks.
As a recap, here are some of the pertinent fundraising numbers for Obama going back to the first quarter of 2007 when he announced his candidacy:
Q1– $25 million
Q2 — $31 million
Q3 — $19 million
Q4 — $24 million
For 2008, the reporting has been monthly rather than quarterly:
Jan — $37 million
Feb — $57 million
Mar — $43 million
Apr — $32 million
May — $23 million
Obama was able to put distance between him and Clinton beginning with a win in the Louisiana primary on Feb. 9. He won 10 straight contests over her after Super Tuesday when the Clinton campaign had not game-planned a scenario where Clinton had not secured the nomination on Super Tuesday and Obama was better prepared to continue the fight. Between Super Tuesday (Feb. 5) and Clinton’s wins in Texas and Ohio on March 4, Obama won contests in LA, ME, VA, DC, MD, WI, WA, and HI, creating the cushion over her in pledged delegates that held up through PR in June.
Having won key early contests in Iowa and SC, Obama was able to raise $37 million in Jan., and after surviving Super Tuesday, he raised $57 million in Feb at the same time he went on his winning streak.
With the Clinton winning in Texas and Ohio in early March to stay in the race, Obama contined to raise money at a significant rate in March ($43 million).
But it was March 13 that the Rev. Wright affair hit the airwaves, and it was March 18 that Obama gave his race speech in Philadephia. Needless to say, that was only the beginning of his trouble as various assocations from his days in Chicago began to come to the surface for the first time.
April fundraising — $32 million (-11 million from March)
May fundraising — $23 million.
While it might make perfect sense to conclude that Obama’s fundraising was certain to take a pause after it became clear in mid-April that he was going to prevail over Clinton for the nomination, there still remains the question of whether he will show any signs of continuing weakness in fundraising as a fallout from the controversies that dogged him in March and April, as well as from the lag in enthusiasm that might be beginning to set in on the left-wing as he begins to walk-back from them on issues like FISA reform, Iraq, gun control, death penalty, etc.
They’ll still vote for him in November, but will they contribute money to him as aggressively as they did before these warts began to appear?