Patterico's Pontifications

1/26/2008

Media Calls South Carolina for Obama (Updated x3)

Filed under: 2008 Election — DRJ @ 4:18 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

With no votes reported, Fox News, CNN, ABC News, and MSNBC have already called South Carolina for Barack Obama. (MSNBC even called it a rout.) That means they’ve called this race based on exit polls. Here’s what CNN’s exit polls look like:

Democratic vote by Gender:
Male – 39%
Female – 61%

Democratic vote by Age:
18-29 — 10%
30-44 — 23%
45-59 — 37%
60+ — 29%

The most interesting issue to me will be how the female vote breaks out but I haven’t seen anything reported on that yet.

UPDATE 1 @ 8:40 PM EST – Here are the latest numbers from The State website with 43% 68% of the vote in:

Obama – 119,282 186,421
Clinton – 62,586 92,534
Edwards – 43,921 64,580

It looks like Edwards had a last-minute surge. I’m starting a separate post on the exit poll information.

UPDATE 2 @ 9:00 PM EST – With 85% of the vote in:

Obama – 228,323
Clinton – 113,892
Edwards – 78,821

UPDATE 3 @ 9:25 PM EST – This will probably be my last update but with 95% of the vote in:

Obama – 277,123
Clinton – 133,058
Edwards – 89,569

One last note: There were approximately 400,000 votes cast in the South Carolina Republican primary and over 500,000 in the Democratic primary.

— DRJ

25 Responses to “Media Calls South Carolina for Obama (Updated x3)”

  1. 45-59 — 37%
    60+ — 29%

    Isn’t it interesting that 2/3’s of the vote is 45+.
    I thought that Dems were the party of youthful exuberance and new ideas?

    Another Drew (8018ee)

  2. It’s even more than 2/3 if you count over-40s. Good point.

    DRJ (517d26)

  3. I wouldn’t worry too much about that 400,000 vs 500,000 thing. The weather was much better this week.

    Bill Faith (e10a69)

  4. Bill Faith,

    I forgot about the SC weather last week but I’m still impressed with this week’s turnout. It may be due to the weather or to the fact this was a contested race with a hometown candidate, but my guess is there were more *new/don’t usually vote* voters who turned out for Obama.

    DRJ (517d26)

  5. Did any of you notice the chanting of “race doesn’t matter” at Barack’s gathering of people, and how that flies in the face of their voting practices?

    JD (fc7319)

  6. According to CNN’s exit poll, 67 percent of the Republican South Carolina primary was 45 and up, vs 60 for the Democrats. For reference, about 45 percent of SC men and 49 percent of SC women fall in that age group.

    There were almost half-again as many under-30 voters in the Democratic primary.

    Andrew J. Lazarus (55e0ba)

  7. That last sentence should be, compared to the GOP.

    Andrew J. Lazarus (55e0ba)

  8. If Hillary would run as the Democrat with experience, with leadership skill, with awareness of the world, she would trounce Obama. These people do not know how to run on merits and must attack character. But on character, Obama easily trounces Hillary.

    Obama is obviously a good guy, a smart guy, with no experience or record. Partly his fault with the “present” votes. Hillary easily could beat this ghuy if she avoids making this about character. The idea of nominating someoen with no experience in today’s world is very scary stuff.

    Jem (9e390b)

  9. – I think this was a stunning victory for Obama. SC is one of the more racially polarized states in the country yet 25% of the white vote went for Obama. Other states will likely have higher numbers of whites voting for him.
    – According to the ABC news panel this morning Obama has about 500,000 contributors who have given an average of 125 dollars versus Hillary whose 100,000 contributors have already given the 2300 max. This is important for two reasons (1) he can still get a lot of money for the campaign (2) speaks to likely economic status of contributors – working class in my opinion

    Just my opinion but the GOP should hope and pray that Hillary is the Democrat nominee. Caroline Kennedy compared Obama to her father and if Ted Kennedy throws his support behind him… Obama definitely has the gift in terms of inspirational speeches. Say what you will about his experience and all but if you pit him against McCain, Rudy or Mitt they will have a difficult time winning. McCain will have the best chance because of his connection with the senior citizens.

    For those who poopah the idea that Obama could do that well in a general election and as in comment number 5 are in effect agreeing with Bill Clinton’s assessment I’d offer this prediction if he is the Democrat candidate:

    Expect him to make the speech of his life which would start off something along the lines of “I am not black, I am not white. I am American with a wonderfully diverse heritage as are most Americans of all backgrounds and I ask for their support….”

    The question is what does the GOP candidate do to inspire the country?

    voiceofreason2 (df37df)

  10. Oh, I entirely agree, voiceofreason2. I think any Democrat will win, but Obama scares me more.

    Patterico (4bda0b)

  11. To make my point more clearly:

    Whoever the Democrat candidate is, that candidate will win the general election, in my opinion.

    But we at least have a *chance* against Hillary. I’m not sure we do against Obama.

    Patterico (4bda0b)

  12. Patterico,

    I think Hillary could lose because the path to her nomination will be littered with a lot of angry democrats, particularly in the black community.

    If Obama were the candidate I wonder how that plays in the house/senate elections. Do voters hedge their bets and keep the senate and house from having a clear majority for the Democrats. IMO that will be the real statement in an Obama win.

    voiceofreason2 (df37df)

  13. Hillary might lose to a generic Republican, but all of the GOP contenders have enough baggage she wouldn’t have to worry.

    I do think Obama, who seems truly to bring young Democrats to the polls, would win bigger and sweep more downticket Democrats in.

    Andrew J. Lazarus (aeead4)

  14. “I am not black, I am not white. I am American with a wonderfully diverse heritage as are most Americans of all backgrounds and I ask for their support….”

    Me too. You too, VOR2. The question is what qualifies either one of us to be President? Just that we’re clean and articulate?

    nk (eeb240)

  15. Actually, NK, some candidates can’t even manage that.

    DRJ (517d26)

  16. Heh. At almost six, my daughter is politically aware. She told me about two hours ago, that Hillary should be elected President because “there has never been a girl President”.

    nk (eeb240)

  17. You go, girl.

    DRJ (517d26)

  18. But we at least have a *chance* against Hillary. I’m not sure we do against Obama.

    Comment by Patterico — 1/27/2008 @ 9:20 am

    I respectfully disagree. IMO Hillary’s not electable nationwide, so, I think we have more than a chance with her. Though I agree that Obama will be tougher to beat – a better speaker, lots less baggage, the extreme liberalism more well hidden.

    Me too. You too, VOR2. The question is what qualifies either one of us to be President? Just that we’re clean and articulate?

    Comment by nk — 1/27/2008 @ 11:50 am

    Joe Biden’s (it was him, right?) somewhat racist and certainly condescending way of putting it notwithstanding, point is well taken.

    If the Repub candidate is smart, he’ll hammer away at Hillary Clinton’s lack of character, extreme liberal positions and (taking her ostensible lone run for president, not co-president, at face value) her own lack of experience. Obama gets a pass (I believe) on character but his positions are just as liberal, and he has lots less experience than Hillary.

    So I think he’s very beatable too. Haven’t lost hope. But the Republican has to be relentless and smart either way, esp with Obama. Lots of people STILL don’t know just how liberal his positions are, partly because all the great platitudes are hiding them.

    no one you know (1ebbb1)

  19. Heh. At almost six, my daughter is politically aware. She told me about two hours ago, that Hillary should be elected President because “there has never been a girl President”.

    Comment by nk — 1/27/2008 @ 12:17 pm

    Got the identity politics at six. :) Seriously, all the girl teens in the Catholic religious ed class I teach think Hillary should be president for the same reason (no, I didn’t bring it up, they did) and they also think “Bush sucks.” How I would have loved to get into that but it being a religion class all I could do was say, “we’re not here to talk about Hillary Clinton or George Bush, let’s get back to the lesson.” Little liberals. I’ll pray for them and they can’t do anything about it – Muhwah hah hah!

    no one you know (1ebbb1)

  20. While its certainly going to be an uphill battle for November, I think there is some exaggeration of the advantage that Obama would have. He’s vulnerable in almost any substantive discussion given his lack of national experience. The question is what GOP candidate can best contrast with Obama’s superficiality.

    I’m not as sure as others are that Obama is drawing a lot of Democrats to the polls on his own, I think that there is a significant fraction of anti-Hillary turnout in his margin of victory.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  21. Caroline Kennedy compared Obama to her father and if Ted Kennedy throws his support behind him…

    With whom will this carry any weight? I guess is they are playing to the people who drive their cars off of bridges and leave someone to die crowd, it might be important.


    but Obama scares me more.

    I could not agree more. Behind that nice guy veneer, we have a person with socialists tendencies foisted upon us by the Daleys, with little to no record or experience by which we can evaluate him. At least we know exactly what to expect with Hill and Bill.

    JD (fc7319)

  22. “I am not black, I am not white. I am American with a wonderfully diverse heritage as are most Americans of all backgrounds and I ask for their support….”

    My 6 year old daughter could recite that same sentence, but she is in no way qualified to be President.

    JD (fc7319)

  23. “She told me about two hours ago, that Hillary should be elected President because “there has never been a girl President”.”

    – nk

    What was your response?

    Hell… considering the generally crappy pool of candidates, maybe your daughter’s right. Who’s to say?

    Leviticus (35fbde)

  24. “With whom will this carry any weight?”

    – JD

    I agree. Obama’s getting a lot of votes from young people… and they don’t give a shit about the Kennedys.

    Leviticus (35fbde)

  25. Leviticus #23,

    I agreed with her, what else? Girls are better than boys because they’re made of sugar and spice and everything nice while boys are made of toads and snails and puppy dog tails.

    nk (398aa2)


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