Patterico's Pontifications

1/25/2024

Thinking About A Trump Running Mate

Filed under: General — Dana @ 12:40 pm



[guest post by Dana]

More speculation on a running mate for “nominee” (see: previous post) Donald Trump, as friends and allies are pushing for a woman or a Black man to fill the slot. Suggested individuals include South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Sen. Tim Scott, and Ben Carson. Two other Trump loyalists Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Kari Lake were also mentioned. The report notes that they both received an enthusiastic welcome during recent appearances in New Hampshire.

Despite having claimed on Jan. 10 that he knew who his running mate would be, Trump continues to solicit opinions from friends and advisors on a regular basis.

From the report:

Trump is looking for loyalty and deference in a running mate, the close Trump ally said. Remember whose name is on the side of the plane,” the ally said.

–Dana

40 Responses to “Thinking About A Trump Running Mate”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (8e902f)

  2. I’ll predict either Stefanik or Scott. Proably because both have abased themselves when required, but still have some residual gravitas based on their position.

    Sanders isn’t good looking enough for Trump to consider. Noem doesn’t make any kind of splash.

    Appalled (03f53c)

  3. None of the listed options excites me.

    Honestly, I think Trump’s best option for is… Nikki Haley.

    If we’re talking about which VP adds “something” for GE voters to consider.

    All the other possiblity in the above post adds nothing. (although, I have a soft spot for Tim Scott and Ben Carson).

    whembly (5f7596)

  4. I’ve never been right before, but I’d take Sarah H.

    felipe (5045ed)

  5. Don’t hold your breath but… anybody seen Sarah Palin lately?

    qdpsteve again (fc5910)

  6. Honestly, I think Trump’s best option for is… Nikki Haley.

    She doesn’t fulfill the “loyalty and deference” criteria, not by a long shot.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  7. Meh, party infighting during the primaries can get nasty.

    It’s a matter of, if Trump recognized that Haley brings something to the table and “make up” afterwards.

    Trump can be magnanimous to his previous “enemies”.

    Just look at post-election Trump having dinner with Romney of all people, when Romney allegedly wanted the Secretary of State (??) in his administration.

    But, other than that… I cannot think of anyone better. Needs to be someone who’s not recognized as part of “MAGA” imo.

    whembly (5f7596)

  8. It sure would show Haley to be a hypocrite …..Oh wait……

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  9. Nobody has shown more loyalty and deference than DCSCA. He’s tanned, rested, and ready.

    norcal (3226fa)

  10. Paging Jim Miller:

    …….
    According to Oddschecker.com, U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York is now the leading Republican to be picked as Trump’s vice president nominee, passing South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.
    …….
    Stefanik’s odds are now +400, which means a $100 bet would win $400 plus the $100 back. For non-gamblers, it means she has about a 20% chance to be Trump’s running mate.

    Noem remains at +550, or a 15.4% chance.
    …….
    Here are Oddschecker’s odds for other GOP vice president hopefuls:

    Entrepreneur and former presidential primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy at +600 (14.3%)

    Former Trump administration official Dr. Ben Carson at +700 (12.5%)

    Haley at +1000 (9.1%)

    U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, a former presidential primary candidate, at +1200 (7.7%)

    Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson at +1600 (5.9%)

    Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders at +2500 (3.8%)

    Kari Lake, a failed Arizona governor candidate and current U.S. Senate candidate, at +2500 (3.8%)

    Former presidential primary candidate and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at +3300 (2.9%)

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  11. 10. The odds seem wrong. They’re invariably wrong at the extremes. They add up to aa total probability of 95.4% but the chances of it being someone not on the list must be at least 20%. Ron DeSantis is too high even at 2.9^ and especially Vivek Ramaswamy is too high and probably Ben Carson Sarah Huckabee Sanders is to low..

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  12. More VP Odds:

    Stefanik 24%

    Noem 19%

    Scott/Ramswamy 15%

    Haley/Carson 9%

    Lake 5%

    Donalds 2%

    Kennedy 1%

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  13. Hitlers dead and putin has a better job. Maybe if he crawled on his belly and kissed nikki’s spike heel.

    asset (425dd8)

  14. Honestly, I think Trump’s best option for is… Nikki Haley.

    She’s barred permanently.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  15. He could explode everyone’s head and pick Liz Cheney.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  16. There is literally no one he could pick that would lose him votes. Squeaky Fromme would work.

    Kevin M (ed969f)

  17. Trump is not gong to pick anybody. Putin will do the picking, and with Trump turning 78 in June, he will pick very carefully.

    nk (105d74)

  18. Tulsi Gabbard has to be on any list.

    Like with Romney, the base is being conditioned to consider Haley disloyal and not one of them. This has to be a pick that excites Trump’s base….and not be a sellout to the establishment.

    I think he knows it has to be a woman so he doesn’t absolutely crator the suburban women vote….and he needs someone young to pull in a younger vote. NeverTrump is not voting for Trump whoever he picks. My top 3 picks remain Noem, Gabbard, and Lake. Stefanik might be my alternative but I don’t think she is as smooth or pretty as the others. I don’t get the sense that she will jump in front of the bus for Trump. Noem and Lake give me that vibe….and with Gabbard converting to a Fox News regular, you never know.

    Scott is now the 2016 version of Chris Christie. Humiliate him enough to pull any remaining threat from him. Keep him close enough to extract his loyalty and then let him twist in the wind. He’s good to have around to woo some disaffected black voters but he’s not a powerful enough or smooth enough speaker to work the swing states.

    Ramaswamy is too swarmy…and doesn’t grab a clear demographic. Carson is a yawner who is just not a prominent MAGA. This has to be someone MAGA knows and likes.

    AJ_Liberty (3b8905)

  19. @14

    Honestly, I think Trump’s best option for is… Nikki Haley.

    She’s barred permanently.

    Kevin M (ed969f) — 1/25/2024 @ 9:42 pm

    What an absolutely an idiot.

    whembly (5f7596)

  20. Now wait just a minute.

    Trump was impeached when he asked for assistance with Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden VP years when he exhorted Ukraine to fire a particular prosecutor, when the target of such investigation involved a company paying Hunter Biden.

    That was waaaaaaay before Joe Biden was the putative (D) nominee, but was widely considered by Trump’s critics that this was only done for partisan/political reasons, by exhorting Ukraine to “go after his potential political opponent” for electoral reasons.

    How do you square with this story?
    https://www.axios.com/2024/01/26/biden-netanyahu-israel-hamas-war-gaza-timetable?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial

    President Biden last week pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale down the Israeli military operation in Gaza, stressing he is not in it for a year of war, two U.S. officials told Axios.

    Why it matters: Biden’s comments during the two leaders’ call last Friday reflect the growing U.S. concern about the continuation of the war and the president’s desire to see it end long before the November elections.

    A Biden adviser told Axios the White House is very concerned about losing young voters, many of whom are opposed to the president’s policy on the Gaza war.

    A source close to the White House said Biden can’t have the war and the growing death toll to continue dominating the news cycle as the elections get closer.

    Rather, it seems every position that is being taken is being taken for political reasons, rather some strategic goals the befits the relationship to our allies.

    I mean, there’s zero concerns that our support and this administration of Ukraine’s defense against Russia would wane.

    Israel is fighting for the lives, just as Ukraine is…

    whembly (5f7596)

  21. “That was waaaaaaay before Joe Biden was the putative (D) nominee”

    Biden announced his candidacy April 25, 2019.
    Trump made the infamous call to Zelensky July 25, 2019
    Jul 22 – Aug 4 Pew Poll: Biden 26%, Warren 16%, Sanders 12%, Harris 11%
    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/08/16/most-democrats-are-excited-by-several-2020-candidates-not-just-their-top-choice/
    Oct CNN poll: Biden 34%, Warren 19%, Sanders 16%, Harris 6%
    https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/23/politics/cnn-poll-biden-lead-increases/index.html

    Isn’t it more honest to say that Biden was Trump’s leading competition at the time he called Zelensky?

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  22. whembly,

    Really dude? You don’t see the difference between Trump calling a leader to get specific dirt on a private US citizen who might be his opponent, and Biden making a point that his coalition will not support the war in Gaza forever?

    This is what Pat’s been talking about…

    Appalled (03f53c)

  23. @21

    Isn’t it more honest to say that Biden was Trump’s leading competition at the time he called Zelensky?

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 1/26/2024 @ 9:12 am

    Not really, that poll was released after Aug 4th.

    I remembered, distinctly, that Biden has almost zero chance to be the nominee. Sanders was ascendant during that time, and democrats were scrambling to find a viable “not-Sanders” candidate.

    whembly (5f7596)

  24. @22

    whembly,

    Really dude? You don’t see the difference between Trump calling a leader to get specific dirt on a private US citizen who might be his opponent, and Biden making a point that his coalition will not support the war in Gaza forever?

    This is what Pat’s been talking about…

    Appalled (03f53c) — 1/26/2024 @ 9:24 am

    Are they not both for political gains?

    whembly (5f7596)

  25. @24 meant to add:
    Are they not both for political gains at the expense of rational foreign policy objectives?

    The arguments about Trump was that it was bad to hold “hostage” for foreign aid in exchange for something that would help him politically.

    How is it not bad for Biden to hold Israel hostage of his support in the face of his electoral chances at home, when the rational foreign policy is to destroy Hamas?

    whembly (5f7596)

  26. “Not really, that poll was released after Aug 4th.”

    You don’t think Trump had internal polling telling him that Biden was his likely opponent? And on what earth would a former VP and moderate not have a considerable advantage over two equally old socialists…neither with much foreign policy experience? Once again, you seem desperate to make an analogy that is a stretch. Trump made the call to help Trump…period.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  27. Because Biden is not specifically targeting American politicians, whembly. Trump was.

    This is why the idea that Trump might target his political opponents is not laughable. He has already asked Zelensky in Ukraine, President of a foreign government, to target an American politician. Asking the military or some hitman to do the same thing is believable.

    And it is why Patterico was right that you will excuse or gloss over anything Trump does.

    DRJ (5d4c55)

  28. Honestly, I think Trump’s best option for is… Nikki Haley.

    Vice President “Birdbrain”? I don’t think so.

    Rip Murdock (c27dcc)

  29. @27

    Because Biden is not specifically targeting American politicians, whembly. Trump was.

    This is why the idea that Trump might target his political opponents is not laughable. He has already asked Zelensky in Ukraine, President of a foreign government, to target an American politician. Asking the military or some hitman to do the same thing is believable.

    And it is why Patterico was right that you will excuse or gloss over anything Trump does.

    DRJ (5d4c55) — 1/26/2024 @ 9:47 am

    So, we’re back to this circular argument that Biden should be immune from any sort of prosecution, when there’s ample evidence of corruption, because he’s running for office.

    Yet Trump is under ample indictments under Biden’s own DOJ, while running for office.

    You cannot square this.

    You cannot, on the one hand, condemn Trump for “specifically targeting American politicians”, even if when there’s ample evidence that warrants some sort of investigation…but, yeah cheer Biden’s DOJ targeting Trump, even when there’s ample evidence that warrants investigation.

    So which is it?

    whembly (5f7596)

  30. How is it not bad for Biden to hold Israel hostage of his support in the face of his electoral chances at home, when the rational foreign policy is to destroy Hamas?

    whembly (5f7596) — 1/26/2024 @ 9:29 am

    How is the Administration holding Israel “hostage” when n it is supplying plane loads of weapons, vetoing resolutions condemning Israel, and sending multiple warships into the Red Sea to defend Israel international shipping from drone and missile attacks?

    Rip Murdock (c27dcc)

  31. So, we’re back to this circular argument that Biden should be immune from any sort of prosecution, when there’s ample evidence of corruption, because he’s running for office.

    No, Biden is immune because he’s the President.

    Rip Murdock (c27dcc)

  32. And any evidence against President Biden is squishy at best, despite what the “whistleblowers” have said.

    Rip Murdock (c27dcc)

  33. whembly (5f7596) — 1/26/2024 @ 9:29 am

    Israel seems to be doing whatever it wants in Gaza. Biden’s full-throated support seems to be to his political detriment.

    Rip Murdock (c27dcc)

  34. What #27 said. With the caveat that whembly does not so much object to what Trump does and its criminality, but the fact that he is bad at it.

    Appalled (03f53c)

  35. Appalled (03f53c) — 1/26/2024 @ 10:30 am

    Touché!

    Rip Murdock (c27dcc)

  36. Rip Murdock (c27dcc) — 1/26/2024 @ 10:15 am

    Israel seems to be doing whatever it wants in Gaza.

    The government (the political echelon) and the army seem to want different things, and the hostage families still something different.

    The government wants Hamas’s rule to be over in Gaza and to be replaced by something that will pose no threat to Israel, and for that, there will have to remain some form of overall Israeli control of security. The army seems to be basing what it does on the premise that Hamas will remain in control. The hostage families, or some of them, want both a prisoner exchange – any terms – and until then, to stop delivery of food and other aid to Gaza, and they succeeded in stopping some of it.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  37. whembly (5f7596) — 1/26/2024 @ 10:00 am

    And if there is “ample evidence” of Biden’s corruption, why hasn’t the House impeached him?

    Rip Murdock (c27dcc)

  38. Biden’s full-throated support seems to be to his political detriment.

    No, he doesn’t give full throated support.
    There are big disagreements. For one thing, Biden doesn’t want Israel to occupy any part of Gaza, but the Israeli military is gradually clearing all buildings – that’s why they were demolishing the building where 19 Israeli soldiers got killed, either by a Hamas anti-tank round or by a premature triggering of explosives – within 1 kilometer of the Israeli border.

    The Israeli army wants to. in effect, create a no-man’s land and say that should not be on the Israeli side of the international border because Israel was the victim of aggression. And it is not that it will bring so much security as that the army hopes that it will be enough to get the inhabitants of the kibbutzim near the Gaza border to return to their homes or rebuild there.

    It’s probably a forlorn hope, but the army has got to pretend to know the solution or else maybe they could lose their jobs.

    That “buffer zone” will not be enough, and tunnels haven’t posed a problem of a raid because Israel developed sonar to detect them and no tunnels were dug in recent years under the border.

    Also of course, it is still an active war zone, and Hamas could get nearby through the tunnels.

    Biden is willing to accept a temporary arrangement but agrees with the Arabs that Gaza should not lose any territory. Some of it is farmland, but there are/were also buildings standing.

    Biden wants the war to be over soon; Netanyahu says it may last for a year or more.

    The only condition under which the Israeli government is poised to suspend – not end, and this is an important point – the war is a release of hostages and this point seems to have been conceded to Israel, only Hamas doesn’t really want to agree.

    And I can’t see how they can be expected to unless the commanders are in fear of their own lives. We might get a long pause (that will last until Hamas contrives to end it) and a partial release…

    Netanyahu told hostage families that he has no illusions about Qatar, and it leaked, and Qatar criticized Israel for saying that.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  39. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/25/world/middleeast/qatar-netanyahu-israel-hostages.html

    In a recording that aired on Israeli television, a voice that appears to be Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s called Qatar’s role as a mediator “problematic” because of its relationship to Hamas….

    …“These remarks if validated, are irresponsible and destructive to the efforts to save innocent lives, but are not surprising,” the Qatari foreign ministry spokesman, Majed Al Ansari, said in a statement on social media on Wednesday.

    He said that if the remarks were confirmed, Mr. Netanyahu would be “obstructing and undermining the mediation process, for reasons that appear to serve his political career instead of prioritizing saving innocent lives, including Israeli hostages.”

    Mr. Netanyahu did not publicly respond to the Qatari comments…

    The Israeli prime minister said on Sunday that he would not accept a deal for a permanent cease-fire that left Hamas in control of Gaza. He has been under pressure from the right-wing of his government to take more aggressive military actions in Gaza, even as a debate rises about the feasibility of both eradicating Hamas and negotiating the release of the hostages.

    In negotiations, Hamas proposed a four-month ceasefire, which should immediately be succeeded by a permanent one, Israel one month and now they’ve agreed to two and also the order of release proposed by Qatar.

    Biden says that Gaza will not be rebuilt without at east a “path” to a 2-state solution. Netanyahu says a completely independent Palestinian state is impossible and Hamas doesn’t want anything besides rule over the entire territory from the river to the sea. The PA doesn’t want to take over Gaza without a peace agreement that will include East Jerusalem. People are not yet resigned themselves to the likelihood that Gaza will remain a ruin for years.

    I can’t see any Arab state financing a rebuilding – not because there is no agreement to a Palestinian state – but because there can be no confidence that war will not break out again.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  40. DRJ (5d4c55) — 1/26/2024 @ 9:47 am

    He has already asked Zelensky in Ukraine, President of a foreign government, to target an American politician.

    No, he didn’t. He asked Zelensky to find out if a story he had heard was true. It was purely a “favor” and he did not condition anything on it nor did he even tell him that aid was being withheld..

    It was Ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland who proposed that Ukraine announce an investigation in order to free up the aid, and he did that even after Trump to.ld him – and Senator Ron Johnson (R-Wis) who asked Trump about it after he heard from Gordon Sondland – he wanted no such deal and that Zelensky should investigate anyway.

    People are attracted to explanations that make sense but as, Mark Twain once said, truth is stranger than fiction.

    Fiction has to make sense. Truth doesn’t.

    More exactly:

    https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/4650-truth-is-stranger-than-fiction-but-it-is-because-fiction

    “Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn’t.”

    ― Mark Twain, Following the Equator: A Journey Around the World

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

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