Putin Confirms Coup Attempt (UPDATES)
Last night word broke that Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner group, had claimed that the Russian military had conducted a missile strike on his troops. He denounced Russian military leadership and said that the Ukraine invasion had been conducted under false pretenses. Reports started to roll in, accompanied by unverified video, that Prigozhin was rolling his forces towards Russia.
Analysts warned observers to be cautious: all we really knew was Prigozhin’s recorded statements. And these people are all liars.
Well, now Putin himself has confirmed that there is a coup attempt in full swing. And he doesn’t seem pleased:
Putin’s full national address condemning the insurrection, with English-language subtitles. pic.twitter.com/i0sRCe3Dbw
— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) June 24, 2023
This is a suicide mission, I would think. It’s very hard to imagine this coup attempt being successful. If you don’t think Putin has planned for this sort of thing, you don’t know Putin.
Very interesting. Hard to know what it will mean for Ukraine’s counteroffensive. You might think that facing down a genuine military coup attempt would distract the Russian military, which is bombing its own fuel depots to deny resources to Wagner . . . but it could cause Putin to act desperately to display that all-important “strength.”
For what it’s worth, Putin appears to have left Moscow, as confirmed by government spokesmen denying it:
Putin's plane left for St Petersburg, and Peskov promptly denied Putin leaving Moscow, which in good old Russian tradition assured the population Putin has left Moscow. pic.twitter.com/fjkr7BhVVB
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) June 24, 2023
Updates as they become available.
UPDATE: Start making popcorn:
🍿🍿🍿 Ukrainian drone commander who fought Wagner forces in Bakhmut and Soledar appears to be thoroughly enjoying the insurrection unfolding across the border. pic.twitter.com/rSqGdrVlrT
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 24, 2023
UPDATE: How long has Prigozhin been planning this?
Explains Western intel saying Prigo was dramatizing the ammo shortfall. If this is true, he was stockpiling it for exactly this moment. https://t.co/HgMUFpRr3t
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) June 24, 2023
UPDATE: Looks like a potential mass exodus of elites to St. Petersburg.
Are the elites fleeing?
It is reported that Prime Minister Mishustin's plane has left for St. Petersburg.
Several other business jets are also on their way to Russia's northern capital.
In addition, the richest member of the government, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov,… pic.twitter.com/zRh0d1Llxe
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) June 24, 2023
UPDATE: The Daily Telegraph (which is conducting a live Twitter Spaces episode of its Ukraine podcast as we speak) reports that Russian helicopters are currently bombing the Wagner convoy:
Russian military helicopters have opened fire on a convoy of rebel mercenaries already more than half way towards Moscow in a lightning advance after seizing a southern city overnight, Reuters has confirmed.
. . . .
A Reuters journalist saw army helicopters open fire at an armed Wagner column that was advancing past the city of Voronezh with troop carriers and at least one tank on a flatbed truck. The city is more than half way along the 680-mile highway from Rostov to Moscow.
Wow.
UPDATE: Zelensky’s statement:
Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself. Who sends columns of troops to destroy the lives of another country and cannot stop them from fleeing and betraying when life resists. Who terrorizes with missiles, and when they are shot down, humiliates himself to receive…
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 24, 2023
UPDATE: This fellow questions the conclusion (expressed in a tweet linked in this post) about Russia bombing its own fuel depot.
UPDATE: https://twitter.com/Patterico/status/1672606082781577216
UPDATE: https://twitter.com/Patterico/status/1672610831945850880
UPDATE: And just like that … he’s gone. https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1672658108143812608
UPDATE: Start making popcorn:
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1672578245772947456
Patterico (01004a) — 6/24/2023 @ 5:30 amUPDATE: How long has Prigozhin been planning this?
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541393263161344
Patterico (01004a) — 6/24/2023 @ 5:32 amI mean, I overestimated the strength of Russia’s military before the full-scale invasion. Maybe I am overestimating it again. You never know.
Patterico (01004a) — 6/24/2023 @ 5:34 amPrigozhin is not some apparatchik who just woke up one morning and boom, there he was, dictator! He came up the hard way. In the grocery business.
nk (bb1548) — 6/24/2023 @ 5:40 amUPDATE: The Daily Telegraph (which is conducting a live Twitter Spaces episode of its Ukraine podcast as we speak) reports that Russian helicopters are currently bombing the Wagner convoy:
Wow.
Patterico (01004a) — 6/24/2023 @ 5:41 amUPDATE: Zelensky’s statement:
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1672543858863767552
Patterico (01004a) — 6/24/2023 @ 5:49 amThese are interesting and dangerous times. Hopefully Putin can be deposed and we can have legitimate elections. Just hope this doesn’t lead to mass casualties and WMD’s being used.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 6/24/2023 @ 5:50 amFortunately, unlike our elections, we don’t get a vote here. All we can do is watch.
Patterico (01004a) — 6/24/2023 @ 6:06 amUPDATE: This fellow questions the conclusion (expressed in a tweet linked in this post) about Russia bombing its own fuel depot.
Patterico (01004a) — 6/24/2023 @ 6:09 amI hope so too, but I am not pleased that Nazis are the enemy of my enemy.
Interesting times indeed.
BuDuh (eaef9b) — 6/24/2023 @ 6:11 amYeah, I’d feel better, myself, if it was Francis and the Papal Swiss Guard instead of Prigozhin and Wagner Group.
nk (bb1548) — 6/24/2023 @ 6:22 amExpect to see more and many such subtle and not-so-subtle digs by Putin’s and Trump’s (but I repeat myself) shills as this goes on.
nk (bb1548) — 6/24/2023 @ 6:25 amUPDATE: https://twitter.com/Patterico/status/1672606082781577216
Patterico (01004a) — 6/24/2023 @ 7:18 amUPDATE: https://twitter.com/Patterico/status/1672610831945850880
Patterico (01004a) — 6/24/2023 @ 7:21 amRe 11, many hard core Kaffolicks would rather it be Opus Dei and the modern equivalent of Fr. Coughlan marching TOWARD Pope Francis.
urbanleftbehind (471693) — 6/24/2023 @ 7:42 amJust seems like Wagner is marching straight into Moscow without opposition. Nobody has been stopping them. Just bizarre.
Patterico (01004a) — 6/24/2023 @ 7:49 amThe Russian army and police are led by Communist bureaucrats who do nothing without orders. I doubt anyone is giving coherent orders.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 7:57 amThis could change but, for now, Russia’s allies may not be willing to help Putin:
https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1672555961981050880
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 8:11 amThis seems like more than Wagner and Prigozhin.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 8:51 amThis seems like more than Wagner and Prigozhin.
I think so too, DRJ. A junta composed of politicians, bureaucrats, military and police leaders, financiers, businessmen, and even churchmen, with Prigozhin as the “strong man” and not necessarily even the senior strong man.
If tradition is followed, Putin will fly to Switzerland with an adequate portion of the national treasury, and they will form a temporary government and schedule elections for a new president. Or they could end up hanging from meat hooks with piano wire nooses around their necks in the basement of Lubyanka.
nk (49ddf5) — 6/24/2023 @ 9:21 amPutin is talking to neighboring leaders. I assume he is asking for aid/troops. Or he could be lining up passage to a safe asylum.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 9:48 amRussia is focusing on the Neo Nazi threat presented by the Wagner Group. Neo Naziism was the excuse to invade Ukraine, so this fits with that narrative and may resonate with everyday Russians.
But the Wagner Group acts for Russia in several African countries. Russians must know that. If Putin succeeds in stopping this, it will impact Russian influence throughout that region.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 9:55 amOne of the reasons Russian leaders have always demanded no action without orders is to keep the military under their control. It works until it doesn’t.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 9:58 amRussian leaders wanted the military to be loyal to them, not the country.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:00 amI always worry about a KGB misdirection play by Putin. Rally the troops by shutting down an insurrection. This doesn’t feel like that. This is…or was…Putin’s boy. One can appreciate Prigozhin’s disgust with the current meat grinder madness. He is a hard-core nationalist and likely has a broad coalition of support. Does Putin have a play other than running? I guess we’ll see. If it’s authentic, it’s good to see Putin getting squeezed. It’s probably not great to have mercenary nationalists leading the charge, but at minimum this gives Ukraine a clear tactical advantage in the moment.
AJ_Liberty (235ad8) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:08 amI think Progozhin is a mercenary. He was loyal to Putin as long as Putin paid him the most. That may no longer be true.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:25 amSorry. Prigozhin.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:31 amUPDATE: And just like that … he’s gone. https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1672658108143812608?s=46&t=_-W1S1Hc08PqeJaoootyUQ
Patterico (ebc796) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:32 amTimothy Snyder said to watch for Belarus in the next few days. Something is allegedly happening:
I don’t know that I buy this. What could Lukashenko possibly offer Prigozhin? It would have to be enough to protect Prigozhin and his men from Putin.
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:34 amOr they could end up hanging from meat hooks with piano wire nooses around their necks in the basement of Lubyanka.
I’d think it would be more like heads, pikes and the Kremlin Wall.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:39 amThis could change but, for now, Russia’s allies may not be willing to help Putin
Money could fix that. These people are all venal assh0les.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:40 amIf Putin succeeds in stopping this, it will impact Russian influence throughout that region.
Why? They’re mercenaries.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:42 amThat Putin has agreed to step down? I don’t think Prigozhin wants to be President.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:45 amAm I wrong for wanting everyone to step back and let them fight?
whembly (898840) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:45 amRussia outsourced to the Wagner Group in Africa, Syria and parts of Ukraine, Kevin. It will be hard to continue that relationship if Prigozhin is still in charge.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:47 amThere seems to be confusion on whether Prigozhin has actually agreed to stop his march to Moscow. Julia Davis posts that Russian state media is making that claim. However, there are claims that Prigozhin turned down Belarus offers, and instead is waiting for reinforcements. (I have no idea how accurate the latter claim is, but it would seem to make more sense. There is zero hope of Prigozhin staying alive if he throws in the towel now, it would seem. Whether poison, being shot or pushed out a window, his days are clearly numbered.)
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:47 amWe know Putin talked to the Belarus President and it was reported that Prigozhin had talked to him, too. Some kind of deal was made. It could just be more money for Prigozhin.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:50 amBut, as Dana notes, it is hard to believe Prigozhin would decide to back off at this point. He is a marked man as long as Putin is in power.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:52 amApparently, there is an audio message from Prigozhin on Wagner’s Telegraph channel saying that they are indeed headed for field camps and standing down. Interestingly, Belarus media reports that “a profitable and acceptable option has been developed for solving the situation, with security guarantees for the Wagner PMC fighters.”
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:54 amJoy, at the thought that the tyrant may soon be overthrown. If the Wagner advance has stopped, could it be because allies or accomplices in the Russian military have assured they will deal with the Putin problem? Who knows, probably we can expect flux and uncertainty for the next few days.
Joy is tempered by uncertainty, even if Putin goes, his successors may be worse. But those concerns can be considered soon enough, for now let’s hope that soon all references to Putin will have the word “former” in them.
RL formerly in Glendale (7a2d64) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:57 am@35:
I don’t see your point, DRJ.
If Prigozhin is NOT still in charge, then, as I said, they remain mercenaries. They are not there out of a sense of service. Putin may have to find a suitable replacement, but they really don’t want to be in Syria, etc, without being paid.
If he IS still in charge, then he’s made a deal with Putin, or received considerable concessions (e.g. Defense Minister) in return for a better command of the troops in Ukraine.
Since his forces rely on being paid, a Prigozhin without $tate $upport won’t hold onto his troops for long.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:57 amPloy to sniff out disloyalty? Awfully quick stand down order. Maybe a move to give Prigozhin more military authority? Nothing that comes out of Russia smells honest.
AJ_Liberty (235ad8) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:58 amHe is a marked man as long as Putin is in power.
Molon labe.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:58 amIf this is so, the relationship between Moscow and Wagner is over. Wagner fighters living in Moscow were already rounded up and arrested, does this mean they too will be released? Doubtful. Does Belarus provide cover for PMC fighters to evacuate Ukraine? It’s also doubtful that Wagner continues to battle in Ukraine. Wouldn’t Russian troops be told to take them out after behaving so traitorously? So, where does that leave the war in Ukraine? This is a complicated situation. A war within a war, so to speak.
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 10:59 amThere is not an infinite supply of reliable and effective mercenary groups available to Russia given the level of corruption in Russian society. Prigozhin and the Wagner Group were, in general, reliable and effective.
There may be other groups. There may be other Prigozhins. But they aren’t obvious.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:02 amI think that Prigozhin has made a clear demonstration that the Defense Ministry is indeed incompetent. His other message — that Putin was lied to by the the Defense and Intelligence branches about the “short victorious war” — gives Putin an out. He can announce a withdrawal from Eastern Ukraine (holding Crimea) and start executing generals and spooks as he places blame.
This would likely insulate Prigozhin from retaliation as the hero who exposed the conspiracy of lies (and gave Putin a face-saving way to end this losing war).
—
Or maybe, he convinced Putin he can win the war if only he is in charge.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:05 amThe only way this shakes out easily is if Putin leaves, but that doesn’t seem likely. If Prigozhin stands down and Putin stays in power, instead of fighting on the streets, the purges will start.
On the plus side, my dictionary learned to spell Prigozhin.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:05 amThe problem is, Wagner pumps out propaganda and lies as easily as the Kremlin. Both entities trade in lies and corruption, so it’s difficult to know the actual truth of the matter. Time will tell.
In the meantime, I have the same question:
It doesn’t make sense.
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:06 amI was hoping for a long civil war, but it sounds like Prigozhin is standing down. Putin and Prigozhin are both gangsters, so I was rooting for chaos and dissension in Russia.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:07 am@44:
Then why did Prigozhin quit if his future is painful execution? They talked, he got something important. Wheels within wheels.
We will know in a few days as significant changes happen, even if it’s just an ice pick.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:09 amPutin and Prigozhin are both gangsters
Exactly. And they both have things they want, some of which the other has.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:10 amOn the plus side, my dictionary learned to spell Prigozhin.
I (and thousands of others) am unhappy with having to learn it myself.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:11 amRumors on Russian telegram that “in exchange for Prigozhin pulling back his forces, Russia’s defence minister Shoigu and chief of the general staff Gerasimov will be removed,” as well as “the criminal case against Prigozhin will be dropped and PMC Wagner fighters will receive legal immunity.”
Certainly, if true, Prigozhin wouldn’t be foolish enough to believe that he wouldn’t be targeted for assassination even if the criminal case is dropped.
Criminals like Putin and Prigozhin understand how this works.
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:17 amThe most important thing would be that he wouldn’t be killed by the Kremlin at some point in time. How/why on earth would he ever buy such an assurance? He’s as much a criminal as Putin, and he knows how this works.
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:18 amhttps://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-ukraine-news/29f0f8f3-afdd-59b5-a1ad-77588ee9f3dc?smid=url-share
At least it’s not Mount Weather.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:22 amThe most important thing would be that he wouldn’t be killed by the Kremlin at some point in time
So, the most important thing is worthless? Not sure I follow.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:23 amSomeone tweeted that the tally so far was seven Russian jets and choppers shot down…by Russians.
Prigozhin not only resisted Shoigu’s attempt to nationalize the Wagner Group, Putin’s Chef keep his private army under his control and is now only made stronger. It’s possible that Prigozhin’s forces are more lethal than what the Russian army has, given how easily he drove up the M4 and threatened Moscow (I think they end up less than a hundred miles away from the Kremlin).
If Putin doesn’t have a competent army to protect himself and the Kremlin, then I wonder who’s actually in charge of Russia, because Prigozhin can turn his insurrection back on with a phone call.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:25 amAlso, the statement that Prigozhin read on Wagner’s channel said that “realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed on one of the sides,” made him stop the march sounds like something a man with a conscience would say. I don’t believe Prigozhin is that man. He is an amoral and violent tyrant whose goals are to make money and consolidate power, seemingly not turning around because he is concerned about Russian blood being spilled. There is def something more going on.
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:26 amRumors on Russian telegram that “in exchange for Prigozhin pulling back his forces, Russia’s defence minister Shoigu and chief of the general staff Gerasimov will be removed,” as well as “the criminal case against Prigozhin will be dropped and PMC Wagner fighters will receive legal immunity.
Maybe, but not until the Ukraine War is over. And I think that Prigozhin is loyal to his troops (at least those who aren’t prison dragoons). Putin cannot be happy with the people who have run this war, and he needs to either clean house or get off the pot.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:26 amDana, while I too doubt that Prigozhin has a conscience, he cannot lead something like Wagner without strong support from the troops. They won’t give that to an ass-covering bureaucrat. He’s quite a bit more than that.
That doesn’t make his character much better, but his perfidy is limited when one gets to Wagner. It is in his self-interest to defend them.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:30 amPopcorn Futures down.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:31 amWe’ll see, Kevin.
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:31 amAnother way to think about it is that a group of mercenaries embarrassed the Russian Army, and they not only get to stay intact, Putin has no control over them as they answer to Prigozhin. The Putin is now a weaker figure today than he was 48 hours ago, and he has to feel humiliated by what took place.
The good news is that his Wagner soldiers left Ukraine and are in Russia for their putsch, and there’s word that Ukraine is attacking on multiple fronts (can’t find the damn link).
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:52 amAgain, this is the same Putin that bombed Russians in 3 cities in 1999 as a prelude to the 2nd Chechen war. Anything coming out of Russia is propaganda until Putin is strung up.
It just seems like more of a play to shake things up in the defense hierarchy. I would like to be wrong and believe that this is evidence of cracking. I mean, let’s hope, but these guys are thick as thieves (well, and thieves). Barking but not a lot of biting.
AJ_Liberty (235ad8) — 6/24/2023 @ 11:56 amWe Amweicans are blessed to have a system and society that limits many risks that people face in other parts of the world. Russians live with risk. Money is the answer for most of them.
DRJ (2dc07c) — 6/24/2023 @ 12:12 pmWow this is all very weird.
Patterico (01004a) — 6/24/2023 @ 12:32 pmBrowder says whenever it doesn’t make sense on the surface, it means we just don’t have all the information. I think he’s right. When dealing with the Kremlin and Wagner, there are going to be lies upon lies and endless propaganda to wade through. We now have Gerashenko posting a former supporter of Prighozhin and what is alleged to be the agreement made to have Wagner back off:
It just doesn’t seem like someone as hard and experienced as Prighozon would agree to this. He knows he’s a dead man.
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 12:48 pmMeh…Prigozhin
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 12:49 pmWhat happens if they kill Prigozhin and threaten his mercenaries? Men like that don’t just walk into the Gulags. If they have loyalty to Prigozhen, they may decide they have no way out other than toppling the regime. Could they do that? The Russian military shows very little quality, except for quantity, and not all that much quantity either.
A last-gasp operation against Putin would doom their war in Ukraine, and possible (however unlikely) chance they could doom Putin (most likely at the hands of Putin’s allies).
I’m reminded of the “Ballad of Jacques Chretien” from Gordon Dickson’s “Brothers.”
Of course, Wagner is not Dorsai, but pissing off a lot of VERY GOOD fighters is not a great idea.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 1:04 pmWe know the Prigozhin’s mutiny (however abbreviated it may have been) certainly and ability to get as close to Moscow as he did exposed the cracks and weaknesses of Putin’s leadership. But now that Prigozhin has retreated, Putin might be able to capitalize on this and at least appear to be back in control.
A question I have: If Prigozhin lives in Belarus, as reported, what happens with the Wagner fighters in Ukraine? Don’t they become targets by Not just Ukraine but also Russian fighters?
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 1:16 pmMeanwhile, as Moscow is distracted, Ukraine has launched several assaults in the area of Bakhmut. So all of this could help Ukraine.
We don’t know if Russia will stand united in Ukraine.
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 1:19 pmFrom olexander scherba on twitter via the Russsian media monitor twitter page:
In his latest audio message, Prigozhin casually says “When we worked in Africa and Ukraine, when we messed up in America, they were fine with us paying cash…”.
The original wording is: “Когда мы кошмарили Америку». Kinda difficult to translate… “When we nightmared America”.
I’m guessing if some of this money was spent in USA, it would have been spread around like an ETF does it. Pick a basket of crazies, fund them, identify the over achievers and increase the weight
steveg (70bb46) — 6/24/2023 @ 1:42 pmAn active ETF
steveg (70bb46) — 6/24/2023 @ 1:47 pmMy guess is that Putin got to other members of the Progozhin Conspiracy. Some from the very beginning, like Fidel Castro used to. Leaving Progozhin with his neck sticking out all by itself.
Run, Yevgeniy, run!
nk (095f80) — 6/24/2023 @ 1:48 pmThis is all giving me a case of geopolitical blue round objects.
norcal (8b5267) — 6/24/2023 @ 2:12 pmThe Wagner fighters need to be kept by Russians, in the Russian tent or several points on the front could collapse. Some wagner folks may try to cut a deal with Ukrainians for surrender and safe passage but I would not bet on that either. Who is going to take them in? It’d be like buying your kids pit vipers instead of a dog
steveg (70bb46) — 6/24/2023 @ 2:36 pmThe funniest thing is seeing MAGAs pivot from:
“America First! Our government is supposed to serve Americans only! Ukraine has nothing to do with us!”
to:
“Biden has failed in his responsibility to maintain peace and stability in the world!”
What’s more disgusting is the MAGA claims that the CIA engineered a coup attempt in Russia to distract from Hunter Biden or for some other nefarious purpose — just as the most zealous MAGA “patriots” portrayed America as the villain behind Russia’s war on Ukraine (aka “a proxy war on Russia”).
Guess what else the Russian turmoil distracted from? The criminal cases against Trump.
Radegunda (74da37) — 6/24/2023 @ 2:40 pmTrue, but he and his men are out of Ukraine.
DRJ (8a860b) — 6/24/2023 @ 2:41 pmMy comment was in response to Patterico saying this is weird.
DRJ (8a860b) — 6/24/2023 @ 2:43 pmI took a nap then woke up and learned that Prigozhin went to Belarus.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/24/2023 @ 2:51 pmBelarus?
What happens to his mercenaries? Are they still taking orders from him?
And it’s laughable that Prigozhin would be safe in Belarus. Of course he knows that, so what gives. There’s just so much of this fast unfolding story that we don’t know. But anything that exposes Putin’s underpants to the world is a positive.
Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 2:58 pmFrom Tatarigami on twitter
16:30 Update on russian soldiers in Occupied Territories:
Throughout the day, a propaganda campaign has been specifically directed at russian soldiers within the army. A significant number of these soldiers are confined within an informational bubble, primarily due to restricted internet access and a stringent information policy. A portion of them possesses only a vague understanding of the ongoing events. Here are the key points spread through the internal propaganda:
– Prigozhin has initiated an unlawful protest (sometimes word mutiny is also used) against Russia, posing a threat to the nation and its interests.
– Wagner soldiers should not be regarded as adversaries unless engage in hostilities, as their involvement in conflicts serves the personal power ambitions of Prigozhin.
– Wagner soldiers were deceived, unaware that they were fighting against russia and president.
– The consequences of a mutiny will be dire: the military defeat of russia and the potential presence of NATO forces on russian soil.
Responses to the events are varied, with a majority of military personnel displaying confusion or limited awareness regarding the unfolding situation.
steveg (70bb46) — 6/24/2023 @ 3:05 pmPer the Kyiv Independent.
I’m not sure “part” of the Wagner mercenaries didn’t participate in this putsch. If the story is accurate and Prigozhin is out of the operational picture, it’s good news for Ukraine because the Shoigu-Gerasimov team have been tremendously incompetent during this war, and Putin’s standing as an indomitable leader took a serious hit.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/24/2023 @ 3:06 pmI have read a few places that the Wagner Naziw are signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Since it is first-to-market twittering I will spare sharing links as it is speculation as far as I know.
But to play off of that speculation I have a wild theory. Prigozhin and Putin organized this so the Wagner Troops would be forced to operate completely and totally under Russian authority. The casualties were a calculated risk.
Prigozhin essentially comes out of it like a union boss proclaiming he got the best deal for his men, while Putin puts an end to the most vocal dissension amongst his ranks.
Smoke and mirrors.
BuDuh (eaef9b) — 6/24/2023 @ 3:09 pmThe consequences of a mutiny will be dire: the military defeat of russia and the potential presence of NATO forces on russian soil.
steveg (70bb46) — 6/24/2023 @ 3:05 pm
OMG! What a catastrophe!
NATO forces on Russian soil would be the complete opposite of dire. A Western occupation of Russia a la post-WWII Germany and Japan would be the best thing that ever happened to Russia.
norcal (8b5267) — 6/24/2023 @ 3:10 pmUnless you’re a J6 rioter escaping American justice, who in the heck would seek asylum in a sheethole country like Belarus?
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/24/2023 @ 3:16 pmUnless you’re a J6 rioter escaping American justice, who in the heck would seek asylum in a sheethole country like Belarus?
Maybe someone escaping from Syria?
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 3:22 pmGuess what else the Russian turmoil distracted from? The criminal cases against Trump.
Good luck with that. Drip. Drip. Drip.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 3:23 pmWho is going to take them in? It’d be like buying your kids pit vipers instead of a dog
I can see Ukraine hiring them to fight inside Russia.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 3:24 pmNATO forces on Russian soil would be the complete opposite of dire. A Western occupation of Russia a la post-WWII Germany and Japan would be the best thing that ever happened to Russia.
MAGA: “NO WAR FOR OIL!!!!”
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 3:27 pmSo, a deal is struck. Prigozhin returns to his native Belarus, with some kind of guarantee from Lubashenko (please STFU). His forces stand down and accept Russian control. The Defense Minister is replaced.
So, why did Prigozhin do this? The simplest answer is that Putin had ordered his “arrest” and he feared falling out window. So he rallied his troops to quash the warrant.
This will cause the Russians some difficulty in defending against Ukraine. IF there was a time to end the war, this would be a good one. A propagandist’s dream.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 4:06 pmKevinM
Putin can pivot to blaming the mutiny when the Great Ukrainian Adventure failure is complete
steveg (70bb46) — 6/24/2023 @ 4:47 pmPrigozhin is in a tough place. He has no safe haven unless he chooses to live in Mali until he is disemboweled in the next coup… 3-5 years? I guess another option might be North Korea if he has enough cash stashed away
steveg (70bb46) — 6/24/2023 @ 4:54 pmThe simplest answer is that Prigozhin saw bad times ahead in Ukraine and wanted an exit strategy.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 4:55 pmI’ve seen video of Russians in Rostov-on-the Don challenging police and supporting Wagner. The Russian people recognize the level of military competence Wagner has vs. the incompetence of the Red Army
steveg (70bb46) — 6/24/2023 @ 4:57 pmExit strategy for the international pariah appears to be limited to Belarus. Aspiring warlords, merchants of death should take note… but they won’t. Eric Prince was smart enough to go live in Dubai- Prigozhin? Belarus? Maybe it is a ruse.
steveg (70bb46) — 6/24/2023 @ 5:43 pmPutin won’t live forever.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/24/2023 @ 5:47 pmIt would be a beautiful thing if Putin and his cronies ended up in Yekaterinburg.
JVW (2a1ce4) — 6/24/2023 @ 7:07 pmWell, I confess that I am very disappointed, but I also confess that I have only myself to blame for my disappointment.
There I go and doubt an Arkansas stripper about her child’s paternity as I rightly should, and then turn right around and believe a story out of Russia.
Sometimes, I just don’t make sense to myself.
nk (359027) — 6/24/2023 @ 7:12 pm“No, Carlo, you’re out of the family business. That’s your punishment.”
Yeah, right. Lol.
lurker (cd7cd4) — 6/24/2023 @ 8:39 pmPrigozhin is in a tough place.
A very tough place as he is a wanted mass-murdering war criminal.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 8:48 pmPrigozhin? Belarus? Maybe it is a ruse.
It’s his homeland.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 8:49 pmMy mistake believing someone else’s mistake. He comes from Leningrad.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 8:54 pmThe interesting thing was how easy the wagner group drove up the highway to moscow with pathetic attempts to stop them and others helping them along. Russian state tv’s panic will not help stability for putin. Authoritarian regimes need to intimidate not be intimidated.
asset (1bce10) — 6/24/2023 @ 8:56 pmnk,
You are being too hard on yourself. As our host pointed out, yesterday was a weird day.
But if yesterday was mystifying for Americans, imagine how confused Russians are by the things that happen in America.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/25/2023 @ 5:18 amWe’re here, we’re queer and we’re coming for your children’: Topless drag queens spark outrage with inflammatory chant at NYC Pride march
BuDuh (eaef9b) — 6/25/2023 @ 5:43 amThe Economist:
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/25/2023 @ 8:41 am@106:
It does seem like “the quiet part out loud.” And I ask, what is the purpose of schools telling little kids that they can change their sex if they want? How does this help more than a tiny fraction, and does that outweigh the gender dysphoria it artificially creates?
It’s a great topic for your next PTA meeting. Although you might be arrested.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/25/2023 @ 8:47 amOoops, sorry. This actually belongs on the open thread.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/25/2023 @ 8:47 amMy link was an affirmation to 105, Kevin.
BuDuh (9c9dfd) — 6/25/2023 @ 8:55 amTo be clear, instead of executing the traitor and destroying the traitor’s insurrectionist forces, Putin capitulated, negotiating safe passage for the traitor and offering amnesty for the insurrectionists.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/25/2023 @ 12:17 pmThis is not a Russian dictator operating from a position of strength. Ivan the Terrible would not have been so charitable.
Peter Schweizer retweets this:
But then he also goes conspiratorial with stuff like this:
I have no idea what Schweizer‘s track record is, or if he is just a clickbaiter.
BuDuh (9c9dfd) — 6/25/2023 @ 1:05 pm67. Dana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 12:48 pm
I think that’s right.
But we can guess what sort of thing would need to be true for any of this to make sense:
1) The quasi-rebellion was all for show. Putin and Prigozhin are still working together, Putin still needs Prigozhin in Syria, in the Central African Republic and other places. and maybe Sudan.
2) This has occurred because the best assessment that Putin has of the Russian military situation is that the Russian position vs a vs Ukraine could collapse in one month. Prigozhin wanted an excuse to drop out of the war.
3) Everything here is about the aftermath of the war. Putin is thinking (has compared it to, too!) Russia in 1917.
Notes:
His men in Ukraine will be offered the chance to join the Russian army. The deadline was July 1 before this all started
Prigozhin has been giving out contradictory propaganda. On the one hand, the war is not being fought hard enough, and on the other there is no reason for the war. He emphasized a little bit the latter in order to get noninterference by the residents of Rostov-on Don.
Sammy Finkelman (6054db) — 6/25/2023 @ 1:39 pm87. Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/24/2023 @ 3:22 pm
They were granted legal tourist visas by Belarus with the intention they should cross over into Poland. It was a means of pressuring Poland.
There are one or two J6 plotters who took refuge in the former Soviet Union, probably because Putin had something to do with that.
Sammy Finkelman (6054db) — 6/25/2023 @ 1:45 pmDana (560c99) — 6/24/2023 @ 2:58 pm
The rebellion was all fake. What else?
And the reason for all this has to be that Prigozhin and Putin anticipate that there will probably be a massive collapse in the front within a month. But not immediately, and they want a decent interval.
They don’t have much hope they will be able to prevent a massic=ve retreat.
No regular Russian forces left Ukraine and maybe nit from the Wagner Group either. (The people who stopped 124 miles from Moscow came from a base camp inside Russia I think),
Sammy Finkelman (6054db) — 6/25/2023 @ 1:57 pm.
He’s an editor at Breitbart. Draw your own conclusions.
As for his re-tweet of McFaul, it’s McFaul’s credibility that matters, not Schweizer’s. And McFaul is our former ambassador to Russia, and before that he was head Russia expert on the National Security Council. Presumably he has some expertise on the subject. There’s also the small matter of Putin having a vendetta against McFaul almost equal to his enmity for Bill Browder. McFaul hasn’t exactly been kind in return. So there’s that.
lurker (cd7cd4) — 6/25/2023 @ 2:30 pmMy link was an affirmation to 105, Kevin.
I was referring to my post, not yours. Sorry that wasn’t clear.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/25/2023 @ 2:52 pmIvan the Terrible would not have been so charitable.
Ivan might have killed Prigozhin, and maybe his command staff, but he would not have uselessly wasted cannon fodder in the middle of a war.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/25/2023 @ 2:57 pmThe deal was made because Putin was scared. Putin knew that his government was weak and that by the time Prigozhin got to Moscow, his (Putin’s) position was untenable.
Even now I expect that the overnight deposit window in Switzerland is paying a lot of overtime.
Wagner troops are safe because Putin needs them. Once the war is over (assuming that Putin isn’t on a beach in Cuba), there may be some payback. I think Prigozhin is thinking that Putin is busy not dying himself to spend any time now on retribution.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/25/2023 @ 3:03 pmThe deal was made because it was worked out in advance, because both Putin and Prigozhin expect the Ukrainian front to collapse in a bit longer than a month and Prigozhin didn’t want to be around for that,
Nothing has changed in Syria and Africa as far as I know.
Prigozhin’s reasons for starting his march are a lie (his forces were not attacked by the Russian military) and his reasons for stopping are a liie (he did not care about bloodshed between Russians)
Sammy Finkelman (6054db) — 6/25/2023 @ 4:49 pmMy link was an affirmation to 105, Kevin.
That’s an interesting take on my comment, although I doubt that mystifies Russians at all. They are constantly told about the decadent, self-centered West. Your example confirms what they already think. (So does Trump.)
What they don’t understand about America is why we can be this way and still succeed economically and militarily. IMO they don’t understand the benefits of capitalism and the Rule of Law. They share that with some Americans.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/25/2023 @ 4:59 pmHere’s an excellent summation by Dmitri Alperovitch.
I don’t know about #4, but the rest, yeah. More Alperovitch.
On #3 above, Putin’s conciliatory response to Prigozhin and his people may be partially explained by the positive reaction to Prigozhin & Co. from the people on the street in Rostov. Putin may risk alienating too many Russians (and oligarchs) if he goes all Carthage on the mutineers.
And a little more.
I’m not so convinced that Putin could become irrelevant, because he still controls the levers of power, but it could open the door to more rebellion and more challenges to his leadership, which is not good while in the middle of a war.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/25/2023 @ 5:40 pmRegarding Prigozhin’s decisions to stand down, this makes sense.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/25/2023 @ 6:00 pmPutin could realistically threaten the families of the Nazis, but he was simultaneously too weak and ill prepared for an insurrection?
BuDuh (9c9dfd) — 6/25/2023 @ 6:12 pmIf Putin were prepared for an insurrection, how did Rostov and points north fall so quickly?
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/25/2023 @ 6:44 pmSee my comment at 84, Paul.
I still think there is more dust that needs to settle.
BuDuh (9c9dfd) — 6/25/2023 @ 6:50 pmI realize that this is unnecessarily spy novely, but what if this was really the opposite of an insurrection set up to look like one?
Lets look at the results:
Prigozhin is now out of an increasingly unpopular and less and less successful war, with an intact and loyal military force, and increased name recognition and popularity. Historically he has been a strong and effective leader.
Now, stay with me:
Putin is getting older in a country that is not kind to the aging process. He appears to be primarily motivated by the idea of returning Russia to a world power. He does not have an obvious successor that appears likely to be able to complete Putin’s goal. He is not stupid, he can see the way the war is going and where his own popularity is likely to end up. I know we’ve speculated on Putin’s health before, but what if there really is an actual problem?
What if they are setting up Prigozhin to be Putin’s successor?
(This would work better if Prigozhin were 10-15 years younger, but maybe he looks like Putin’s best choice, given his options.)
Nic (896fdf) — 6/25/2023 @ 7:46 pmNice,
I think Prigozhin may have planned this to extract himself, his company, and his men from Ukraine. I don’t think Putin would have agreed to being made to look so weak.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/25/2023 @ 8:33 pmNic. Not Nice, although you are nice.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/25/2023 @ 8:34 pmThat does make sense, Paul. He even said he was stopping to avoid bloodshed.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/25/2023 @ 8:35 pmWhat can anyone point to that demonstrates Prigozhin’s historical concerns about bloodshed?
Also, it’s good to bear in mind that Wagner soldiers are loyal to Prigozhin, not Putin, nor Russia. So I find it puzzling that they (en masse) would acquiesce to the Russian military and take officials’ word word that they will be forgiven their momentary uh, mutinous behavior and be welcomed into the fold. It just still doesn’t wash with me. At this point, anyway.
Dana (560c99) — 6/25/2023 @ 8:52 pm@DRJ@128/129 Thanks!
It would be awfully risky if he hadn’t had some kind of assurances from someone before hand. I’m just speculating, of course, but it does put Prigozhin in a really good position if he wants to get involved later (assuming he doesn’t fall out of a window or drink glowing tea in the near future.)
Nic (896fdf) — 6/25/2023 @ 9:04 pmCondottieri!
Oh, won’t you come to your senses?
Have you not seen the fences,
Around our gulags?
More than that is chimerical.
nk (bb1548) — 6/26/2023 @ 2:47 amWell, okay, one more thing, and present company excepted as always.
When talking about a “weakened Putin”, I don’t want to hear from people who had to settle for soy milk for their latte because their office building’s Starbucks was out of oat milk. I want to hear from people who have a Defense of Stalingrad Medal at home.
nk (bb1548) — 6/26/2023 @ 3:43 amOkay, so this makes more sense. An obvious go-to tactic, and one that apparently worked:
The report also claims the number of Wagner fighters was closer to 8,000 rather than the 25,000 previously reported. With that number of fighting mutineers, they likely wouldn’t have been successful in their efforts if they had ever reached Moscow.
Dana (560c99) — 6/26/2023 @ 8:42 amAh. From the same report:
Dana (560c99) — 6/26/2023 @ 8:44 amFrom soldiers of fortune to hostages to fortune? Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of murderers, rapists, thieves, and deviants.
nk (0420d1) — 6/26/2023 @ 8:59 amYou’d think that a restauranteur and caterer would know that he who sups with the Devil should have a long spoon. Apparently, 123 miles was not long enough.
nk (0420d1) — 6/26/2023 @ 9:03 am…he was simultaneously too weak and ill prepared for an insurrection
He surrounded himself with yes-men who told him all was well. When a leader cloisters himself and hires only Baghdad Bob as advisors, things will start to go poorly. Although no one will tell him.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/26/2023 @ 9:37 am(This would work better if Prigozhin were 10-15 years younger, but maybe he looks like Putin’s best choice, given his options.)
Maybe to us, but there’s a lot of politicos in Russia. Probably a few less today, but still. There’s Navalny.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/26/2023 @ 9:40 amSounds like the criminals that had been released from prison were the bulk of the Moscow-bound troops, while the Wagner Group mercenaries stayed behind. That would explain the amnesty for Wagner troops that did not participate in the insurrection. Putin and Russia still needs them.
But Prigozhin knew how many troops he had willing to go and he still went. This wasn’t an accidental insurrection. He had a goal.
The more I’ve thought about it, the more I think he would have arranged for his family’s safety before undertaking an insurrection. Was he testing the loyalty of his troops to Putin and Russia, with the cooperation of the Defense Ministry? They put up no resistance and the Russians would resist.
There are many other possibilities. We will have a better idea who was a real Putin enemy once the purges start. (They probably already have.)
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/26/2023 @ 9:47 amDid his yes-men tell him there were 25,000 troops or 8,000 or some other number?
BuDuh (b04604) — 6/26/2023 @ 9:56 amBoth Putin and Prigozhin haven’t been heard from since Saturday. Mo confirmation from Belarus that Prigozhin is there. He was last seen being cheered in Rs=ostiv-on-Don.
The U,S. did see signs of something like stockpiling weapons but was surprised both by the takeover of Rostiv and by the sudden end of the whatever it was. During the conflict Prigozhin’s forces shot down some Russian aircraft.
Sammy Finkelman (6054db) — 6/26/2023 @ 10:23 amThe fog of war has nothing on the fumes of vodka.
nk (0420d1) — 6/26/2023 @ 10:34 amPrizgozhin has reappeared:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/26/yevgeny-prigozhin-breaks-silence-after-armed-mutiny-russia
The things he is saying do not make a ton of sense. Well, you know what they say in Russsia, when a door closes, just step through an open window.
Appalled (db24ea) — 6/26/2023 @ 10:55 amFrom Appalled’s link:
If so, then the question is who is in charge in Russia — Putin or the Defense Ministers? Was the plan to get Putin out of Moscow?
DRJ (2dc07c) — 6/26/2023 @ 12:03 pmYeah, like January 6th was just a protest.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 6/26/2023 @ 12:47 pmRe: Prigozhin said he did not want to topple Putin.
That is completely consistent with all his statements. He never claimed anything else.
He always said he wanted to get rid of (even execute) the Defense Minister.
Putin has also reappeared (via video)
Letest news:
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-reepels-russian-attack-shoigu-visits-troops/32475778.html
Meanwhile, the U.S. Administration is still trying to figure out what is going on, and Biden decided he should tell Putin that he had nothing to do with this.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 6/26/2023 @ 1:16 pmPutin:
Given the problems at home from the Ukraine war, Putin benefits the most from a united, patriotic country.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/26/2023 @ 2:14 pm149.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 6/26/2023 @ 2:22 pmI hear a lot of overthinking here. Take it for what it was, an attempted putsch that didn’t pencil out, but didn’t fail either.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/26/2023 @ 2:34 pmYeah, like January 6th was just a protest.
Well, they didn’t have tanks and shoulder-fired missiles. That would have ended much differently. One way or the other.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/26/2023 @ 2:36 pm“Virtually the entirety of Russian society… was united by its responsibility to defend their homeland’.”
Pull the other one. People are tired of your war.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/26/2023 @ 2:39 pmRussians are chess masters. It’s the one society where overthinking is warranted.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/26/2023 @ 3:41 pmAmerica is where conspiracies happen but typically have simpler explanations.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/26/2023 @ 3:42 pmPull the other one. People are tired of your war.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/26/2023 @ 2:39 pm
😛
I maintain that your comedic talents are under-utilized, Kevin.
norcal (8b5267) — 6/26/2023 @ 4:24 pm#156
“It’s a fine line between clever and stupid”
This Is Spinal Tap
Appalled (9e0516) — 6/26/2023 @ 4:41 pmLeaders like Putin view loyalty to country and loyalty to its leader as the same things.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/26/2023 @ 4:42 pmA classic, Appalled.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/26/2023 @ 4:45 pmLike Kevin, I don’t think this actually benefits Putin. Putin has been weakened and is trying to put the best spin on it that he can. The Russians are divided and suspicious of everyone — the opposite of united.
Advantage: Ukraine.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/26/2023 @ 4:54 pmJoe opposes regime change as putin’s checks might bounce!
asset (d94edc) — 6/26/2023 @ 6:58 pmPlenty of other checks.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/26/2023 @ 8:24 pmThe question would be: WHy did Putin stage manage all this if the rebellion was staged? It is easy to see why Prigozhin would do this. He wants to be out of the fight, without being blamed for losing the war. MMaybe Putin had to go along because he needs Prigozhin.
Sammy Finkelman (41ea5b) — 6/27/2023 @ 9:10 am162, They also didn’t think anything would happen so soon. It was probably not s complete preparation for a rebellion because all Prigozhin wanted to do was a phony march. He just wanted to save his weapons and keep them under his control, not fight.
Sammy Finkelman (41ea5b) — 6/27/2023 @ 9:13 amThey were caught by surprise because Prigozhin wasn’t planning a coup, just an escape from responsibility for abandoning and losing the war — while at the same time arguing against the war and not running into any censorship.
It was all over so fast because the end was planned in advance.
Sammy Finkelman (41ea5b) — 6/27/2023 @ 9:17 amPutin, however, is worried that some subordinates of Prigozhin never knew the secret (that the mutiny was never supposed to succeed) and are disappointed, and now really want to rebel or continue the rebellion so now, just in case, he’s threatening to punish them.
Sammy Finkelman (41ea5b) — 6/27/2023 @ 9:23 amPrigozhin said at the outset that his forces had been attacked by the Russian military. I don’t think his forces were attacked at all. Somebody said to me about this that maybe they didn’t but they got Ukrainians to do that. But according to Ukrainians a bit back Prigozhin offered to help Ukraine attack.
Sammy Finkelman (41ea5b) — 6/27/2023 @ 9:34 amDemocracies rest on placidity. Dictatorships float on chaos.
nk (81e6ff) — 6/27/2023 @ 9:40 amSammy, when you get to the bottom of your rabbit hole, let us know.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/27/2023 @ 10:15 amReport that Prigozhin is in Belarus, per the Belarus President.
DRJ (fd3827) — 6/27/2023 @ 10:29 amdefmon3 twitter
Putin needs Wagner for Africa, so he does not want to mess too much with them. But he also want to keep the Shoigu & CO calm so he sends Prigo to Belarus. At this point he is trying to make everyone happy.
From the following thread
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1670808133290033153
Explains quite well how Wagner is moving into larger pastures in Africa than just diamonds and gold.
Most people are not aware that China has seen the success of Wagner in Africa and has moved towards raising their game. Right now, China has state held Private Security Companies in Africa , and Russia has instead chosen to claim that Wagner in Africa is independent of the Kremlin. Chinese security companies are not heavily armed like Wager is and some are saying the China may be looking to migrate to a Chinese version of the Wagner model
https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/will-chinas-private-security-companies-follow-the-wagner-groups-footsteps-in-africa/
steveg (e81d76) — 6/27/2023 @ 12:51 pmLooking forward to Wagner fighting it out with Chinese PSC’s over energy and mining resources. China’s needs and extraction methods are rapacious. I’ve seen Chinese methods at work in Southeast Asian countries in harvesting raw materials for Chinese traditional medicine. Need river otter penis for Erectile Dysfunction? String a net across the river downstream and then dynamite everything upstream. It is a bit like when US settlers and hunters shot bison and just took the tongue. Need a root for sore throat? Borrow some slave labor from the gulag style political prisons and send hundreds men side by side with pick and shovel turning every inch of soil and another wave of men to follow behind sorting through it all. It is worse than clear cutting timer because everything is stripped down to mineral earth
steveg (8eb43c) — 6/27/2023 @ 1:07 pmGood points, Steve.
Don’t get me started on all of the Chinese superstitions regarding health. The Communists destroyed much of Chinese culture, and placed severe checks on religion, but tiger bone this and bear bile that continues to thrive.
norcal (8b5267) — 6/27/2023 @ 1:33 pmSammy. The mutiny can be seen as a labor dispute (with heavily armed labor) spun as a somewhat late International Workers Day of action over working conditions. I have no doubt that there would be friendly fire incidents, maybe some intentional. Russian POW’s speak of being robbed of gear and personal belongings by Wagner, and if true, I could see that boiling over into violence. Yet another reason why it is a bad idea to empty prisons into an already poorly or undisciplined army operating in a chaotic war zone. I could also see this occurring between Kadyrovites and Wagner as both are seen as being above the law
steveg (8eb43c) — 6/27/2023 @ 1:35 pmWagner was stopped from recruiting in prisons, but later the regular my started doing it.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/27/2023 @ 10:15 am
That may take a while, but every half a day brings new information, some simply by virtue of what happens and what does not happen.
If Wagner is still in Africa, they’re still allies.
I think, on the war, the U.S. built weapons to destroy Russian weapons – they;re not quite as successful as they had hoped, but Ukraine is going slow and careful and trying to conserve Ukrainian lives, per American instruction. Much of their forces are still in reserve. They are looking for weak spots, where Russia did not build defenses. Russia has only built strong defenses, including mines, near the front line.. Once they bresk through there will be a quick defeat.
Russia is anticipating losses. They’ve doublled the number of dolphins defending Sevastopol in two months. (they use other marine mammals in the Arctic)
Sammy Finkelman (7faa2f) — 6/27/2023 @ 1:49 pmThe Russians uses Beluga whales in the arctic, and Wagner in Africa and Syria. The Beluga whales are much more in control of their emotions
steveg (8eb43c) — 6/27/2023 @ 4:51 pmIt looks like there was a real split between the mutineers and Putin. Yevgeny Prigozhin planned to take two top leaders of the Russian army hostage in Rostov where they planned to visit, The plot was ds=iscovered by the FSB and they did not go there (although two other officials were caught and yelled at) Prigozhin became aware of the leak and advanced his plans by 6-36 hours. He may have had an ally, who condemned it early on Friday and bombed his troops but it looked like he didn’t want to condemn it. He was quietly arrested.
Meanwhile the Belorussian president gave a whole account of how he settled matters after Putin called him, saying he could not get in touch with Prigozhin. He couldn’t either when he tried but Prigozhin had put online a video of himself with somebody else and he called that somebody else who gave Prigozhin the phone. He endured a tirade from Progozhin for half an hour but then negotiated a settlement.
There were leaks on both sides and even leaks about what the United States knew – Ruussians supposedly knew what the US did.
Sammy Finkelman (f4cd04) — 6/30/2023 @ 10:46 am