Patterico's Pontifications

11/30/2022

Gov. Newsom Says He’s Out For 2024, President Biden Mulls Re-Election

Filed under: General — Dana @ 7:57 am



[guest post by Dana]

As President Biden considers whether to seek re-election, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California says that he won’t be running for the presidency in 2024:

[Gov.] Newsom wants the word to go forth: He’s not going to challenge President Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2024.

“I’ve told everyone in the White House, from the chief of staff to the first lady,” he recounted to me as we sat on the top floor of California’s now-ceremonial governor’s mansion on election night.

The governor insists he won’t run for president even if Biden doesn’t run — “the answer is no,” he said — but is less emphatic about 2028, when he’ll turn 61 and his children will be older.

President Biden just turned 80 years old. Last week, Nancy Pelosi (age 82) and Steny Hoyer (age 83) announced that they would not be seeking leadership positions again. One would think that might send a signal to Biden, as in make way for a younger generation. But at least one analyst doesn’t think the message will have any impact on Biden:

Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, said Pelosi and Hoyer stepping aside when the House flipped this month won’t stop Biden from running for another term.

“They are no longer in charge of the House. This was the perfect moment for them to step aside. I don’t think there’s any correlation between Hoyer and Pelosi stepping down on any decisionmaking for Biden,” he said. “Presidents have almost invariably sought reelection regardless of their age.”

For Democrats, Lichtman said, “The last thing you would want is Biden to step down and have an open seat.”

“Democrats do not want an open seat and don’t want a party fight for the nomination,” Lichtman said.

Anyway, I think Biden plans to run again, despite his poll numbers remaining underwater. If he doesn’t run, one is hard-pressed to see any party standouts for 2024. Surely not the temperamental and inarticulate vice president who made an early exit in the 2020 presidential campaign.

Note from the Los Angeles Times: As of Nov. 15, 40% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of [Kamala] Harris and 54% had an unfavorable opinion — a net rating of -14 percentage points, according to a Times average.

Also, in a recent post-midterm election poll, 42% of Democrats wanted Biden to be the nominee, compared to just 17% for Harris, and 12% for Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Another reason to think that Biden will be running again is the active courting of deep-pocketed donors:

The White House is cranking up its donor courtship, a strategy that’s most evident in a shower of social invitations for big-dollar supporters: this week’s state dinner for French President Emmanuel Macron, the arrival and lighting of the national Christmas tree, Biden’s Christmas parties and Vice President Kamala Harris’ Hanukkah celebration among them. They’re offering more policy briefings to longtime supporters, Zoom calls with top administration officials and White House tours, too.

The donors have taken notice and already are praising the change from a team they long complained was unavailable to answer questions in darker political moments for Biden, according to interviews with more than 20 people who have contributed to Biden, raised money for him or helped secure White House invitations for his supporters.

An expanded social calendar means “they are getting down the list a little further,” in terms of who gets face time with the president, said one White House official. And that could pay dividends for Biden if he runs in 2024.

Donor maintenance is a critical step for the administration should Biden seek re-election and even beyond, when he will likely want to raise hundreds of millions of dollars for a presidential library.

Names that have been bandied about as potential candidates (if Biden doesn’t run and excluding Gov. Newsom) include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Sen. Cory Booker, and even Sen. Bernie Sanders (who is 81 years old). But remember, Biden has already proven that he can defeat Trump. And I think that, once again, this is what the next presidential election will be about…

Anecdotal: A still-sharp, nonagenarian relative from New York, who has been a lifelong Democrat and describes himself as being “to the left of Bernie Sanders,” told me last week that he doesn’t want Biden to run again because of his age and that he has concerns about his mental acuity. When pressed to name a Democrat with executive experience, charisma, and the ability to get Democrats to rally behind them in a national election, he said there were no real stand-outs to speak of.

–Dana

24 Responses to “Gov. Newsom Says He’s Out For 2024, President Biden Mulls Re-Election”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (1225fc)

  2. If Biden has a serious health event (like a heart attack or stroke) during or after the primary campaign, I think Newsom will be drafted by the convention and be the Democratic nominee, without running in any primaries.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  3. A legend in his own mind; outside of California he’s about as popular as a case of poison ivy.

    DCSCA (478998)

  4. I had thought that Trump ves Biden in 2020 was the absolute nadir of US presidential choices. But wait, there’s more: A senile Democrat versus a seditious pretend Republican in 2024.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  5. I think Newsom will be drafted by the convention

    Or, later, by the DNC which has the power to replace a candidate under those conditions. But let’s see what the primaries hold first.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  6. Last week, Nancy Pelosi (age 82) and Steny Hoyer (age 83) announced that they would not be seeking leadership positions again

    I thought also Congressman James E. Clyburn, age 82, the current House Majority Whip (the third-ranking Democrat) in the United States House of Representatives, but this was apparently a mistaken assumption

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/pelosis-departure-ushers-long-awaited-generational-change-democrats-rcna57797.

    Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is also stepping down, but Majority Whip Jim Clyburn plans to stick around, frustrating some younger members…

    ….But Majority Whip Jim Clyburn of South Carolina apparently didn’t get the memo.

    The most powerful Black lawmaker and a close ally of President Joe Biden, Clyburn said Friday he is running to stay in leadership in the No. 4 spot as “assistant minority leader,” rather than bow out or accept an emeritus or other ceremonial role.

    Clyburn’s decision will keep him at the leadership table and has scrambled the calculus for some younger, ambitious leaders, disrupting party unity at a time when Democrats are celebrating better-than-expected election results.

    “Pelosi and Hoyer showed a lot of grace in stepping aside,” one younger Democratic lawmaker told NBC News. “Everyone has their own style, but when it means others can’t ascend into leadership, then it seems a little bit unfair.”

    Reps. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., 52, and Katherine Clark, D-Mass., 59, appear to have locked up support for the No. 1 and No. 2 leadership slots, minority leader and minority whip. Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., 43, a member of the Hispanic Caucus, had originally sought the assistant post, which had been considered the No. 3 job the last time Democratic were in the minority.

    But with Clyburn seeking that job, it’s become a game of musical chairs.

    Aguilar said Friday he is now running for Democratic Caucus chairman. Under that scenario, Aguilar’s caucus chair role would move up to No. 3 and Clyburn’s assistant role would move down to No. 4.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  7. Off-topic: NM MoH recipient dies at 97:

    On the night of April 24, 1951, near Taejon-ni, Miyamura’s company came under attack by an invading Chinese force. Miyamura ordered his squad to retreat while he stayed behind and continued to fight, giving his men enough time to evacuate.

    Miyamura and fellow squad leader Joseph Lawrence Annello, of Castle Rock, Colorado, were captured. Though wounded, Miyamura carried the injured Annello for miles until Chinese soldiers ordered him at gunpoint to leave Annello by the side of a road. Miyamura refused the orders until Annello convinced him to put him down.

    Annello was later picked up by another Chinese unit and taken to a POW camp, from which he escaped.

    Miyamura was held as a prisoner for two years and four months.

    Upon his release, he was presented the Medal of Honor by President Dwight D. Eisenhower. It had been awarded in secret while he was still a prisoner of war….

    Miyamura and Annello later met up and remained lifelong friends. Annello died in 2018.

    After the Korean War, Miyamura returned to Gallup as a hero. More than 5,000 people came to meet his train. He spent much of the rest of his life working in town as an auto mechanic.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  8. I’m sure Ron Klain (Biden’s Chief of Staff) will persuade Biden to run again. That way, Ron Klain can be the de facto President for another four years.

    norcal (862cdb)

  9. AOC should run with stacy abrams as her running mate. Black vote down as young blacks disillusioned with corporate establishment donor class stooges (yahoo news) In predominantly latinx schools have pictures of AOC not biden on wall. (tellemundo)

    asset (04bdb1)

  10. AOC should run with stacy abrams as her running mate.

    Suggested motto:

    Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice.
    Moderation in pursuit of justice is no virtue.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  11. When pressed to name a Democrat with executive experience, charisma, and the ability to get Democrats to rally behind them in a national election, he said there were no real stand-outs to speak of.

    That didn’t matter with Biden, though, either. He became the de facto nominee as soon as Clyburn endorsed him, because the DNC was afraid that Bernie might actually grab the nomination and his supporters would filibuster the convention until he got the nod. He was anointed as a candidate as much as Hillary had been.

    The DNC and their media mouthpieces ultimately pick the candidates, not the actual Dem primary voters, and it’s arguably been that way since 1976 after McGovern got his clock cleaned. The only reason Obama and Hillary was a competitive race in 2008 was because each was running an historic campaign, so they actually let them both play out their own strategies without interference. If Obama had been white or Hillary had been male, one of them would have gotten shanked by the DNC. I suspect this is why Obama ended up funneling a lot of fundraising towards OFA rather than DNC coffers during his term, as he didn’t fully trust them (especially with Hillary creature Debbie Wasserman-Schultz at the helm), which later led to Hillary bailing them out in 2016 when they went broke.

    Factory Working Orphan (a1c9b6)

  12. Why anyone believes anything Newsom says is beyond me.
    He’ll just claim that so many people were insisting that he had to answer the call to prop up our democracy.

    Today: President Joe Biden shrugged off a comment by a man who shouted ‘four more years’ at the end of his speech Wednesday – after previously indicating a run for a second term was likely. ‘Oh, I don’t know about that,’ Biden said, rushing through his words and using a hand to wave off the man who shouted about another run.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11488161/Did-Biden-casts-DOUBT-2024-run-President-says-dont-know-crowd-member.html

    steveg (930188)

  13. Recently I heard LA Mayor elect Bass tell us all that she would use all of LA’s resources for her homelessness programs. This way we can see her having spent all the resources of LA to be the accomplishment

    steveg (930188)

  14. All the Democrats need is Trump to run against. The Democratic primary will choose the next President.

    nk (935a5c)

  15. All the Democrats need is Trump to run against. The Democratic primary will choose the next President.

    It’s been the plan since 2015, with one small hiccup.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  16. It’s possible that in 2024 both of the major party candidates will have been impeached.

    Rip Murdock (054285)

  17. All the Democrats need is Trump to run against. The Democratic primary will choose the next President.

    nk (935a5c) — 11/30/2022 @ 8:35 pm

    Not necessarily. As crazy as it sounds, I suspect Biden may be the only Dem candidate who can win. I doubt they can turn out the African-American vote without an African-American on the ticket, I doubt they can win if Harris is the presidential candidate, because she’s awful, and I don’t see any viable African-American contenders to push her aside. So the only way to get the African-American votes she brings without sacrificing the votes she’d lose if she runs for POTUS may be to keep her safely ensconced as Veep. And that only works if Biden stays at the top of the ticket.

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  18. @17, Still, this has somewhat of a Palin effect feel to it. What are the odds that Biden survives a 2nd term….or does not have a major incapacitating event? Many voters are going to look at that VP slot and ask, am I comfortable with a President Harris? As you say, many will conclude that she’s awful. As dyfunctional as the GOP is, it at least has some governors and ex-governors that are plausible contenders that don’t have the Harris incompetence smell about them. The Democrats have not been effectively cultivating talent. That was obvious from the geriatric 2016 field, where the now 81-yr old Sanders was the bold whippersnapper.

    The cynic might say it’s because the DEMs are too invested in identity politics and redistributionist economics and that it’s just not that great of a sell nationally. Just as the GOP has pushed Right, the DEMs don’t really have that many moderates that don’t scare the bejesus out of independents. Biden is the last of that dying breed…but he’s been wholly ineffective and was unable to pull politics to the middle.

    I’m still betting on Biden not running. A slogan that amounts to “he may have one foot in the grave, but at least he’s not Trump” can maybe work once, but a second time? People see their 401K balances and grocery tabs and will say they just can’t afford it, fairly or not. More and more in the country recognize that we need a different tone…it will be interesting to see what the DEM response is. Will it be to double-down on socialism and even more spending and government picking winners and losers? AOC….really!? I expect a Virginian to emerge but I acknowledge it’s still a long shot…..

    AJ_Liberty (6a18fd)

  19. 1. I hope this is accurate.
    2. I don’t believe it is because I don’t believe anything he says.
    3. I’m going to sip some coffee and daydream about a Romney / Meijer administration appointing Paul Ryan as treasure secretary and Amash as AG.

    Time123 (7fbc3c)

  20. One, Wasserman-Schultz may have been a “Hillary creature”, but it was Obama who picked her to run the DNC, perhaps as a sop to Hillary for him beating her in 2008.

    Two, I doubt the slicked-back Newsom has much traction on a national scale.

    Three, what Will said last month still goes. If not Newsom, then someone other than a mentally declined Biden and out of her league Harris.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  21. Mike Pompeo seems to be wanting to base his campaign on opposition to the teachers’ unions — but he’s extremely exaggerating the danger. Randi Weingarten is simply not the most dangerous person on the planet – and neither, Woody Allen notwithstanding, was Albert Shanker. Even if she’s staunchly for what will keep bad schools going.

    Seems to me he thinks the way to win is to demagogue about something

    Sammy Finkelman (5a21a3)

  22. @20 AOC 2024 The young love her and the old are dying off. A care taker can run in her place for ny-14 and resign for special election if she loses. Its been done before.

    asset (ca6c71)

  23. @ AJ_Liberty (6a18fd) — 12/1/2022 @ 2:44 am

    I agree with all of that except the bit about Biden not running. And I’m not betting one way or the other on that, though if you put a gun to my head I guess I’d say he will. Anyway, my response to nk was just that I don’t see how the Dems win, even against Trump, unless Biden runs. And what I didn’t say, and should have made clearer, is that I’m skeptical they win even if Biden does run, largely for the reasons you give.

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  24. @23 2016 white vote73% of total votes trump wins ;but clinton gets more votes. 2020 white vote 70% of total biden wins with 8 million more votes. 2024 white vote 68% Democrats win hopefully AOC.

    asset (ca6c71)


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