Patterico's Pontifications

12/24/2021

Christmas Weekend Open Thread

Filed under: General — Dana @ 8:30 pm



[guest post by Dana]

A happy Christmas Eve and Merry Christmas to you. Consider this a different kind of Weekend Open Thread – one where I’m not linking to any political stories or current events. Instead, talk about whatever you want, including what you’re doing for Christmas, where you’re going, what you’re cooking, etc. And if you are alone this Christmas and need a place to hang out, feel free to do so here.

A Merry Christmas to our host for providing this site, and to JVW for keeping the place humming along with his grumpy humor. And finally, a Merry Christmas to all of you who return to the site, day after day.

I’m just going to leave this here because we could all use a heaping spoonful of wonder and delight:

–Dana

643 Responses to “Christmas Weekend Open Thread”

  1. Happy Friday!

    Dana (5395f9)

  2. And Merry Christmas to everyone.

    Simon Jester (8b4f5f)

  3. Thank you, Dana, for all you do here. I’ve known you a long time, faceless friend. 😀

    I have come to love this site, and have changed some of my opinions because of it.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  4. Breaking news shots fired at the nakatanni building in LA.

    asset (4d90b2)

  5. Breaking News used to mean something, I long for the days of a “This is an _B_ News Special Report” sparingly interrupting soap operas or sitcoms.

    urbanleftbehind (bd454d)

  6. @5 Soap operas? In that case interrupt the whole episode, and do it often!

    norcal (3d2db9)

  7. Even when asset is trying to be funny instead of tiresome, he manages to miss.

    It’s Nakatomi. Not Nakatanni.

    Demosthenes (3fd56e)

  8. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all of you.
    Tis the season foe Nantucket Bay Scallops. Tiny sweet little devils that go great with charred corn and lime mayo with some cilantro in a tortilla.

    mg (8cbc69)

  9. The $10 billion James Webb Telescope has been successfully launched is on the way.

    Merry Christmas, Earth.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  10. Here are the summary descriptions of the 14 members of the CA redistricting commission:

    Republican:
    • A UC Berkeley structural engineer who pushed for “diversity and inclusion” throughout her professional career and volunteer activities.
    • A first-generation Mexican immigrant who works for the State of California as an internal affairs Special Agent.
    • A retired Livermore researcher and manager who recently was foreperson of his county grand jury
    • A African-American investigator with the LA County Sheriff’s Department, who “ensures that investigations are completed in a just and equitable manner.”
    • The pastor of a multicultural church community and theologian, working with social justice, class and race issues, and homelessness.
    No Party Preference:
    • A “Senior Research Evaluation Specialist” with Santa Clara County’s Division of Equity and Social Justice, who works as a community organizer on LGBTQ and gender-based violence issues.
    • The President and CEO of “Leadership for Asian-Pacifics” which advocates diversity and inclusivity. Also, an appointed member of the CA Department of Insurance Diversity Task Force.
    • A professional manager of non-profit and government funded programs, currently working to support L.A. homeless in transitions to “wellness-driven lives.”
    • The Chief Administrative Officer of a Northern CA non-profit health center.
    Democrat:
    • A professional election consultant, who worked primarily for the United Nations in creating electoral systems.
    • An assistant professor of political science, specializing in racial and ethnic politics. Also an immigrant rights activist.
    • A Mexican immigrant and philanthropist who heads a “community-building” consulting firm.
    • The Executive Director of a multi-cultural, multi-faith, community-organizing network.
    • A policy director at a non-profit working with historically marginalized communities, families, and children to overcome their race/ethnicity, trauma and poverty issues.

    The balance just jumps right out at you.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  11. It’s Nakatomi. Not Nakatanni.

    Yet another great Alan Rickman movie.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  12. The $10 billion James Webb Telescope has been successfully launched

    https://xkcd.com/2559/

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  13. Even when it is something innocuous Demosthenes still manages to complain.

    Merry Christmas everyone!

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  14. Merry Christmas everyone. Have a safe and happy Holliday!

    Dana, thank you for taking time to make an open thread on Christmas. I appreciate all you do to manage the blog.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  15. Merry Christmas, y’all. Keep positive, enjoy all we have as a people and a world. Just take a day off the problems and eat something good.

    Life is good.

    Dustin (0ee127)

  16. BuDuh (4a7846) — 12/25/2021 @ 7:44 am

    That’s fair. I had more than a touch of the Grinch about me last night. Or should I say, this morning. I should have just let it go.

    Sorry, all. Forgive me. And have a merry Christmas.

    Demosthenes (3fd56e)

  17. The priest at my 10.30am mass might become DCSCA’s favorite papist…he mentioned the Webb Telescope as a wonderful vessel to view all God’s Universe and after the homily/Nicene creed prayed for it’s safe launch and successful operation.

    Merry Christmas!

    urbanleftbehind (bd454d)

  18. Merry Christmas, happy New Year. May all your spirits be lifted like an Ariane 5 rocket.

    Fred (e9cd7f)

  19. Merry Christmas, everybody!

    nk (1d9030)

  20. So, what to stream this weekend?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  21. The Masterpiece Theater miniseries Wolf Hall with Mark Rylance, from Amazon Prime Video or Hoopla Digital through your public library.

    nk (1d9030)

  22. I’ve just finished For All Mankind (Apple+), an alternate history that diverges on June 26, 1969, when Alexei Leonov becomes the first human to land on the moon.

    What follows is the fight for the high frontier. Two seasons so far.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  23. I know that I often cite Kevin Williamson here, and more and more these days I am pointing everyone to stuff that is published on NRO (partly because I would rather that they get the pageview instead of Fox or CNN or some other giant media conglomeration), but his column today on Christmas is very, very good. Here’s a taste:

    Today, we celebrate the Incarnation, a word that shares a root with carnifex, meaning “butcher” or “executioner.” The root word means both “meat” and “flesh” — and which is which depends very strongly on one’s point of view. As we celebrate the Incarnation, it is worth keeping in mind that the flesh God took on for His inscrutable purpose is fragile stuff: too hot, too cold, a few days without water, a little virus, a good blow to the head — our bodies are not made of stuff that is meant to last.

    Why take on that weakness? I do not know the answer and am not sure the answer is truly knowable; but if there is an answer, it has something to do with the value of that flesh, with human life as it is lived, in the flesh, in this world, rather than the life of the spirit in eternity. Presumably, an omnipotent God could have found a more direct and less messy way of doing His business than entering the squalid flow of human history as an incontinent baby in a manger in a desert backwater at the edge of a savage empire. It must be that He sees something in us that we do not.

    Read the whole thing.

    JVW (30a532)

  24. Kevin, if you like dark comedy I recommend “fleabag”. If you want something lighter try wandacvision or Loki. If you were a fan of the matrix try the new movie. But just stop S soon as you think “oh crap this is getting bad.” Because it peaks really early.

    Time123 (97645e)

  25. So, what to stream this weekend?

    I watched 8-bit Christmas with my family last night and we enjoyed it. It’s a movie about a modern-day dad (played by Neil Patrick Harris) who is relating Christmas 1988 to his young daughter, and the story is told in flashback. It’s a charming movie, but disclosure: I grew up with the real-life mother of the young boy who plays the lead role and I actually dated her a little bit when we were both in high school. So I confess that I’m a bit biased. In fairness, a friend of mine the same age as I am watched the movie with his teenage kids and reports that he enjoyed it but they didn’t quite understand it. (There is an element of “Hey, we had it tough in the 1980s” that will probably make Millennials roll their eyes.) In any case, if you’re looking for a Christmas-themed movie that you haven’t yet seen, this is a good one.

    JVW (30a532)

  26. Watched Loki, didn’t care for Wandavision. Hawkeye is currently playing. Working on Wheel of Time but it’s kinda slow; maybe it will pick up.

    Oldie but goodie: The original Perry Mason is surprisingly watchable even today, and a genuine view of the late 50s and early 60s. Amazon and Paramount+

    Middle East spy thriller: Tehran (Apple+): Israeli woman sent into Tehran in advance of airstrike.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  27. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/25/2021 @ 5:15 am

    Given the party registration split in California (D 46/R 24/I 23/O 6) was inevitable that Democrats would dominate redistricting, even with the loss of a seat. There just aren’t enough Republicans spread throughout the state to create competitive districts. In addition, state legislatures dominated by Republicans or Democrats have done the same thing.

    I think independent commissions are a joke. Redistricting is a political act and legislators should take responsibility for it. Commissions are a way to dodge that responsibility.

    BTW, the fact that 41 members of Congress have announced their retirement (so far) refutes the case for congressional term limits.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  28. Season 6 of Peaky Blinders is done. Probably spring release. Gives me time to rewatch the first 5.

    mg (8cbc69)

  29. Love Perry Mason. The late 50’s early 60’s were special.

    mg (8cbc69)

  30. BTW, the fact that 41 members of Congress have announced their retirement (so far) refutes the case for congressional term limits.

    I wouldn’t say in fact that it “refutes” the case, though sure, it’s a data point against it. But when you consider that some of these retirees have spent 30 (Johnson) and 36 years (DeFazio and Price) in Congress then that hardly suggests that they serve at the pleasure of the people. I mean, everyone leaves Congress eventually, many of them feet first.

    JVW (30a532)

  31. It’s a movie about a modern-day dad (played by Neil Patrick Harris)

    As long as there aren’t any straight-sex scenes in the movie.

    My only quibble with Gone Girl was Harris’s sex scene with a woman. I can’t suspend my disbelief THAT much.

    I’m as pro-gay as they come, but that was a bridge too far.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  32. My only quibble with Gone Girl was Harris’s sex scene with a woman.

    I was just jealous that he got to have a sex scene with the enchanting Rosamund Pike. And probably thought nothing of it.

    JVW (30a532)

  33. Enchanting indeed, JVW. I saw her in person when she came to a theater in L.A. premiering A Private War, and actually got to ask her a question!

    norcal (3d2db9)

  34. See if The Sister Brothers are still on Hulu and you’re already paying for the premium package. Personally, I liked the book better, and sat through only about half an hour of the movie, but if like Chauncey Gardiner you don’t read and like to watch ….

    nk (1d9030)

  35. Here’s a joke I heard recently from my 90-year-old mother:

    A Hollywood talent scout gleefully returns to Hollywood and visits the studio boss. He says, “I have found an incredible woman. Her measurements are 54-24-34!”

    The studio boss says, “That’s wonderful. What can she do?”

    The scout says, “Well, with a little help, she can sit up.”

    norcal (3d2db9)

  36. He was a believable cad running up the score in sexy women in How I Met Your Mother. A “Where We Started. where we Are” meme circa 2006 of NPH/Barney Stinson and his Doogie Howser sidekick, Vinnie Delpino (Max Cassell’s was later a consigliere in The Sopranos) would have been cool.

    urbanleftbehind (bd454d)

  37. I take it that you are not of the Rock Hudson/Doris Day generation, norcal.

    nk (1d9030)

  38. Given the party registration split in California (D 46/R 24/I 23/O 6) was inevitable that Democrats would dominate redistricting, even with the loss of a seat. There just aren’t enough Republicans spread throughout the state to create competitive districts

    This is untrue. Overall the state may be that way, but locally this is not true. Large portions of the state are Red and large portions are (or could be) competitive. Absent TRUMP, the state is about 60/40. A Republican won the governorship in 2006 and the spread in 2010 was single digits. The legislature and Congressional delegation is at historic Democrat highs, yet the new maps will likely make it even more so. A 60/40 state should not have predictable 80/20 results.

    But you seem to be adamant about missing the point: The law says that the commission should be politically balanced, but it was nothing of the sort. Of the 5 republicans at least 3 were ringers, as were all of the NPP people.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  39. Merry Christmas, all.

    lurker (59504c)

  40. ……the spread in 2010 was single digits.……

    Untrue. Jerry Brown beat Meg Whitman by just under 13 points.

    California may be a 60/40 state, but it is a vastly Democratic electorate.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  41. A Republican won the governorship in 2006 …….

    A celebrity Governor who really wasn’t much of a Republican.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  42. About Three-in-Ten U.S. Adults Are Now Religiously Unaffiliated

    ………
    Christians continue to make up a majority of the U.S. populace, but their share of the adult population is 12 points lower in 2021 than it was in 2011. In addition, the share of U.S. adults who say they pray on a daily basis has been trending downward, as has the share who say religion is “very important” in their lives.

    Currently, about three-in-ten U.S. adults (29%) are religious “nones” – people who describe themselves as atheists, agnostics or “nothing in particular” when asked about their religious identity. Self-identified Christians of all varieties (including Protestants, Catholics, members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and Orthodox Christians) make up 63% of the adult population. Christians now outnumber religious “nones” by a ratio of a little more than two-to-one. In 2007, when the Center began asking its current question about religious identity, Christians outnumbered “nones” by almost five-to-one (78% vs. 16%).

    The recent declines within Christianity are concentrated among Protestants. Today, 40% of U.S. adults are Protestants, a group that is broadly defined to include nondenominational Christians and people who describe themselves as “just Christian” along with Baptists, Methodists, Lutherans, Presbyterians and members of many other denominational families. The Protestant share of the population is down 4 percentage points over the last five years and has dropped 10 points in 10 years.

    By comparison, the Catholic share of the population, which had ticked downward between 2007 and 2014, has held relatively steady in recent years. As of 2021, 21% of U.S. adults describe themselves as Catholic, identical to the Catholic share of the population in 2014.

    Within Protestantism, evangelicals continue to outnumber those who are not evangelical. ……..

    This pattern exists among both White and Black Protestants. ……..

    ………Today, 24% of U.S. adults describe themselves as born-again or evangelical Protestants, down 6 percentage points since 2007. During the same period, there also has been a 6-point decline in the share of adults who are Protestant but not born-again or evangelical (from 22% to 16%).
    ……….
    Roughly three-in-ten adults in the new survey (31%) say they attend religious services at least once or twice a month, including 25% who say they attend at least once a week and 7% who attend once or twice a month. ……..

    More than six-in-ten Black Protestants (63%) say they attend religious services at least once or twice a month, with monthly attendance peaking at 70% among Black evangelical Protestants. Fully 56% of White evangelical Protestants also say they attend religious services at least once a month. Regular religious attendance is much less common among U.S. Catholics (35% of whom say they attend monthly or more often) and White Protestants who are not born-again/evangelical (28%). And frequent religious attendance is almost unheard of among religious “nones,” 97% of whom say they attend a few times a year or less. ……..
    ………
    In addition to the 63% of U.S. adults who identify as Christians, …….6% of adults identify with non-Christian faiths. This includes 1% who describe themselves as Jewish, 1% who are Muslim, 1% who are Buddhist, 1% who are Hindu and 2% who identify with a wide variety of other faiths.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  43. nk @ 37,

    I’m a Doris Day/Rock Hudson fan. I love the silly romance, her style, hos wot, their combined charm. All an illusion, and I find their movies mindlessly comforting.

    I watched Matrix 4 last week. I sort of understood some of the storyline but I think I missed some critical parts. I saw the previous three but it was quite a while ago. Keanu Reeves is wonderful because how could he not be? Also, the relationship between Neo and Trinity twenty years later works.

    Dana (5395f9)

  44. I also watched Silent Night, which is “We’ve killed the earth by not taking care of it last night alive” movie. It tried to be a dark comedy with actors I enjoy but it fell short. The reason I watched it was because the real star of the movie and biggest draw for me was a the 500 year old house in the English countryside. Gorgeous.

    Dana (5395f9)

  45. Merry Christmas to all.

    He is born. Rejoice!

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  46. I take it that you are not of the Rock Hudson/Doris Day generation, norcal.

    nk (1d9030) — 12/25/2021 @ 5:01 pm

    No, I’m not, but at least the people of that generation didn’t find out until much later that Hudson was gay. In addition, Hudson was a hulk of a man. Harris? Not so much.

    It was only within the last year that I finally saw Pillow Talk. Loved it. Hudson actually puts Tony Randall over his shoulder and carries him. Very impressive.

    I also recently saw a movie with Day and James Garner called The Thrill of It All. Very fun.

    Doris Day is simply adorable. I would take her over Marilyn Monroe any day, and twice on Sunday.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  47. I’ve been watching reruns of Tales of Wells Fargo and The Life and Legend of Wyatt Earp, and Denver Pyle, who played her father on her TV show, figures in many of the episodes.

    nk (1d9030)

  48. BTW, it was very likely that you saw two stunt men/stand ins do the actual carrying part. Not that Rock and couldn’t do it, but the per hour not to mention per day production costs are way too high to risk having the leading men throw out their backs even temporarily.

    nk (1d9030)

  49. Rock and *Tony*

    nk (1d9030)

  50. Oh, that’s interesting, nk. I guess I’m a sucker for optical illusions.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  51. Oh, well! ¡Que será, será!

    nk (1d9030)

  52. Self-identified Christians of all varieties (including Protestants, Catholics, members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and Orthodox Christians)

    Ahaha. The Mormons are a category unto themselves. So true. I mean, what other Christian religion mandates the wearing of church underwear and the avoidance of iced tea?

    norcal (3d2db9)

  53. Doris Day was no optical illusion, nk.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  54. It was actually William Shatner who spilled the beans for me. A late night show host asked him how he did the Captain Kirk trademark dropkick on Star Trek, and Shatner said “You need a very good stunt man”.

    nk (1d9030)

  55. That damn William Shatner! He also told Trekkies to get a life on the SNL skit.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  56. A celebrity Governor who really wasn’t much of a Republican.

    Far more of a Republican that the ringers that unlawfully occupied the reserved slots on the remapping panel. It’s BS like this that is getting people to leave. Soon the state will be the wealthy, their servants, and the homeless.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  57. The bottom line is that the Constitution says that the remap must be done by a panel of a certain makeup. What really riles me is that the same people who wink at this get all bent out of shape at Trump’s far less meaningful crap.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  58. @56 The homeless will be the servants. 😛

    norcal (3d2db9)

  59. I think the rich will insist on better. Of course the home will be 100 miles away from work.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  60. RIP Joan Didion (87).

    RIP Rev. Desmond Tutu (90).

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  61. The bottom line is that the Constitution says that the remap must be done by a panel of a certain makeup. What really riles me is that the same people who wink at this get all bent out of shape at Trump’s far less meaningful crap.

    Perhaps the California Republican Party should have sued over the panel’s makeup.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  62. 86 Cantafordya.

    mg (8cbc69)

  63. 86 Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York and d.c.

    mg (8cbc69)

  64. Perhaps the California Republican Party should have sued over the panel’s makeup.

    Yeah. I’d given up on them by the time I left.

    Still, with 44 out of 52 congressional (85%) seats judged “safe Democrat” in a state that gave Trump more than a third of its votes (and more than any other state) …. it’s pretty hard to point at some other election and say “they’re rigging it.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  65. SACRAMENTO – Today, California Republican Party Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson issued the following statement in response to the maps that were approved by the California Redistricting Commission:

    “It is going to be tough running in 2022 with a D behind your name. Voters are fed up with California Democrats’ failed policies that are responsible for surging crime, sky-high unemployment, soaring inflation and a homelessness crisis. The California Republican Party’s role in the midterms is to recruit and support great candidates and support our incumbents as we work to build on our historic victories from 2020.

    “Republicans will field the most diverse and talented slate of candidates in California history, leaders who will offer commonsense solutions that contrast the dumpster fire of Democrat policies on crime, job creation, unemployment benefits, wildfire protection, homelessness and nearly every other issue. The lines are drawn, and California Republicans are ready to fight for every vote reflecting the diversity of our great state. We are ready to win for our state’s future.”

    Shorter: https://youtu.be/ZmInkxbvlCs?t=85

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  66. I guess I’m a sucker for optical illusions.

    That’s what Hollywood deals in. Illusions.

    But their masterpieces par excellence were the Moon landings. All the Apollo missions actually. Their believability to people who are not normally credulous make Star Trek, Star Wars, and The Matrix look like third-grade school plays.

    nk (1d9030)

  67. A coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Milwaukee, whose entire crew was “100 percent immunized,” has forced the ship to remain in port after a scheduled stop in Cuba barely one week into its deployment, the Navy announced Friday.
    An unspecified “portion” of the Milwaukee’s 105-person crew is isolated aboard the ship at Naval Station Guantánamo Bay, according to Cmdr. Kate Meadows, a spokeswoman for U.S. Naval Forces Southern Command. The Navy does not disclose infection counts “at the crew/unit level,” she said in an email.
    Some of the personnel who tested positive for the virus have displayed mild symptoms, Meadows said. Officials have not determined whether the highly transmissible omicron variant — which has demonstrated an ability to evade coronavirus vaccines, leading to a surge in breakthrough infections — is responsible for the Milwaukee’s outbreak

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2021/12/24/uss-milwaukee-covid-outbreak/

    What is wrong with these drunk drivers???

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  68. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/26/2021 @ 4:04 am

    Based on Jessica Millan Patterson’s statement, apparently the California Republican Party is confident of victory with the new maps, so they shouldn’t be an obstacle. Though her reference to “diverse” candidates is cringeworthy. Let’s hope she can attract new voters because she is not going to win just relying on Republican primary voters, who are still Trump supporters.

    And good luck winning the Governor’s race, when Newsom solidly beat back the recall and leads prospective Republican candidates by at least 20 points.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  69. Yeah, if the Trump vaccines were any good, Biden would not have given Trump “credit” for them. When you think about it, that “credit” is really subtle blame-shifting.

    I, personally, never believed that anything worthwhile would come out of a Trump administration, either. It is mostly hope — a Pascal’s bet, if you which — that makes me give vaccines the benefit of the doubt.

    But you may have noticed that across the United States, and in many places around the world, people are turning to the view that Covid is going to be something that we will just have to live with. New York has shortened the post-positive test quarantine for essential workers to just five days. Not that those psychotics are a good example but it’s a foretaste of things to come.

    nk (1d9030)

  70. Rip–

    The link there goes to Monty Python’s Black Night (“It’s only a flesh wound”). The diversity thing reflects well on the inclusivity and diversity advocates that served as the GOP representatives on the panel.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  71. I, personally, never believed that anything worthwhile would come out of a Trump administration, either

    1. On balance, judges
    2. A vaccine approval process that only took days past the election to complete. It could have taken longer.
    3. A demonstration of the idiocy of granting extreme power blindly.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  72. Florida breaks state’s daily coronavirus cases record twice this week
    Florida reported nearly 33,000 new COVID-19 cases to The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from Friday. It’s the second consecutive day the state sets a new record for daily case increase.

    The 32,850 new cases attributed to the past day in the latest federal data surpasses the previous record of 31,758 from Thursday — amid a surge of omicron variant cases. The previous record was on Aug. 26 with 27,669 coronavirus cases.
    According to the Florida Department of Health’s weekly COVID-19 data report, released Friday evening, the statewide new-case positivity rate rose to 13.8% this week, up from 5.3% last week and 2.6% the week before.
    …………

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  73. Rates of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations by vaccination status
    Summary:

    For all adults aged 18 years and older, the cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate was about 8 times higher in unvaccinated persons.
    Although weekly rates can vary, the cumulative rate of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in unvaccinated adolescents ages 12-17 years was about 10 times higher than fully vaccinated adolescents aged 12-17 years.

    Although weekly rates can vary, the cumulative rate of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in unvaccinated adults ages 18-49 years was about 12 times higher than fully vaccinated adults aged 18-49 years.

    Although weekly rates can vary widely, the cumulative rate of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in unvaccinated adults ages 50-64 years was about 10 times higher than fully vaccinated adults aged 50-64 years.

    Although weekly rates can vary widely, the cumulative rate of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in unvaccinated adults ages 65 years and older was about 6 times higher than fully vaccinated adults ages 65 years and older.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  74. ‘Keurig for Cocktails’ Maker to Shut Down and Refund Customers
    ……….
    Drinkworks, a joint venture between Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, will no longer sell its automated cocktail-making machines, the company said in a statement on its website dated Dec. 15.
    ……….
    Drinkworks’ Home Bar Classic machine, which launched in October, sold for $299 while a premium version sold for $349. Its cocktail pods are sold for around $4 to $5 per drink.

    AB InBev has been looking beyond beer for growth as the world’s biggest brewer grapples with a shift among U.S. drinkers from beer to spirits.
    ………
    “Our Drinkworks joint venture with Anheuser-Busch enabled us to explore the possibilities of a single-serve alcohol drink system. We look forward to applying the insights gained toward new beverage innovations throughout our core business,” a Keurig spokeswoman said in a statement.
    ###########
    It would have made work so much more fun. Sad!

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  75. Retailers say thefts are at crisis level. The numbers say otherwise
    ……….
    Captured on smartphones and closed-circuit cameras, thefts involving groups of people smashing windows or individuals wheeling loaded shopping carts past security guards and out the door have been looping on social media and TV news, raising the specter that crime rings reselling boosted merchandise present a major threat to retailers.

    With industry groups sounding the alarm, politicians have declared the issue a priority. ………
    ………..
    ……….. Rachel Michelin, president of the California Retailers Assn., told the San Jose Mercury News that in San Francisco and Oakland alone, businesses lose $3.6 billion to organized retail crime each year.

    That would mean retail gangs steal nearly 25% of total sales in San Francisco and Oakland combined, which amounted to around $15.5 billion in 2019, according to the state agency that tracks sales tax.
    …………
    The country’s largest retail industry group, the National Retail Federation, estimated in its latest report that losses from organized retail theft average $700,000 per $1 billion in sales — or 0.07% of total sales — an amount roughly 330 times lower than the CRA’s estimate.

    Asked how the organization arrived at that figure, a CRA staffer said that “there’s no way of knowing exactly” how much organized retail crime affects the bottom line of businesses. The staffer said the estimate was based on a back-of-the-napkin calculation: If organized retail thieves steal $70 billion annually, and California accounts for 10% of the U.S., California’s losses add up to $7 billion, meaning the Bay Area “is likely in the billions itself.”

    ………(H)ow did they come up with that $70-billion number? The staffer pointed to a report from the Retail Industry Leaders Assn. published this year. But that report didn’t find that organized retail thieves stole $68.9 billion per year at all — it estimated that all retail crime combined, including employee theft, regular shoplifting and fraud, added up to that number.
    ……….
    (The National Retail Federation’s) latest report found that total “shrink” — the industry term for all inventory losses from theft and fraud, internal and external, as well as paperwork errors — grew from 1.4% to 1.6% of sales on average from 2015 to 2020. The estimated portion of those losses coming from organized retail crime grew from 0.045% to 0.07% in the same timeframe.

    With $3.1 trillion in bricks-and-mortar retail sales in 2020, that puts estimates for total shrink at $49.6 billion and losses to organized retail crime at $2.1 billion nationwide.
    ………….

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  76. Correction: The shrinkage report came from the Retail Industry Leaders Assn., not the National Retail Federation.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  77. Rip Murdock (8dd5e1) — 12/26/2021 @ 9:22 am

    The good news is FL’s death numbers continue to go down.

    frosty (8bb357)

  78. “Dating an Actress … Would Not Cause ‘Public Hatred,’ ‘Shame,’ [or] ‘Ridicule'”
    Libel law requires more than just a showing of false factual allegations about the plaintiff (plus, generally, knowledge/reckless/sometimes negligence as to the falsehood). It also requires that the allegations tend to diminish the plaintiff’s reputation, and the decision Friday by Judge Paul Crotty (S.D.N.Y.) in Michael Lindell v. Mail Media Inc. held that this story didn’t have that tendency:

    Even assuming the romance never happened, the [allegation] would not defame Lindell. Dating an actress—secret or not—would not cause “public hatred,” “shame,” “ridicule,” or any similar feeling towards Lindell. Both Lindell and (Jane) Krakowski are unmarried adults, and Lindell’s alleged actions typify those of a person in a consenting relationship….

    Lindell also claims the Article falsely associates him with alcohol because it said he bought Krakowski champagne and other bottles of liquor. That association is indirect at best. The Article never stated Lindell consumes alcohol himself. In fact, it explicitly noted Lindell is sober.

    Inferring a step further, Lindell claims the Article still defamed him because he would never buy alcohol or “foist” it on other people after recovering from his own addiction. But whatever Lindell’s personal history with addiction, buying alcohol for a dating partner would not reasonably expose him to “public hatred,” “shame,” or “ridicule.” The purchase of alcohol is a legal and ordinary act…. [N]o reasonable reader could find it offensive to exchange champagne or other bottles of liquor as gifts between romantic partners….
    ……….

    In many states, even nondefamatory falsehoods could be actionable as “false light” invasion of privacy, if they are offensive enough. But New York, the relevant state in this case, doesn’t recognize a false light theory.
    ###########
    It depends on how hot the actress is. Krakowski should sue for defamation for being associated with Lindell, not the other way around. Dating him could cause public hatred, shame or ridicule.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  79. Soon the state will be the wealthy, their servants, and the homeless.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/25/2021 @ 9:50 pm

    The state is already the wealthy and their serfs. A lot of the serfs just haven’t caught on yet.

    frosty (8bb357)

  80. New Year’s COVID resolutions I would like to see:

    1. Return to normal insurance, Medicare/Medicaid copay and deductible for Covid-related illnesses.
    2. Charge for vaccines, but not boosters
    3. End all public restrictions, including masks, vaccine proofs and testing mandates.

    Essentially, act as if the entire population is adequately immunized. Those who aren’t, well, it’s not like they were not warned.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  81. Lindell claims the Article still defamed him because he would never buy alcohol or “foist” it on other people after recovering from his own addiction.

    The “victim” theory of addiction. Phooey.

    When I got married (to a sober woman), half the attendees were sober, but I still payed for an open bar at the reception. My problem is not your problem.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  82. The state is already the wealthy and their serfs. A lot of the serfs just haven’t caught on yet.

    Some serfs are moving there. By “there” I mean LA- or SF-“adjacent.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  83. Politico’s “Worst Political Predictions of 2021”. Here’s my favorite:

    Once Biden takes office, there’ll be a “depression the likes of which you’ve never seen
    . . .
    Since Biden took office, the unemployment rate has dropped from 6.3 percent to 4.2 percent; the Dow Jones Industrial Average has grown by roughly 14 percent; the S&P 500 is up roughly 21 percent; America’s gross domestic product grew by 7.8 percent over the first three quarters of 2021, even when adjusted for inflation. If that’s a depression, then what would be the appropriate term for the economy at the end of the Trump presidency?

    It will annoy partisans of both men, but there is more than a little similarity between the policies followed by Trump and Biden. Both men favor borrowing enormous sums to boost the economy, and to give large payoffs to their supporters. (When I see little kids I feel like apologizing to them for the debt we are leaving them.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  84. Florida has almost caught up with New York in COVID deaths per capita. (2903 to 3056 per million)

    That’s because Florida was much worse than New York at controlling the delta wave in the summer and early fall.

    It is possible to believe that both governors, Cuomo and DeSantis, could have done better against COVID. That conclusion seems obvious to me, but I fear I am in a minority.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  85. @79. The judge applied New York values, and he should not have. Lindell is not suing over what only Gomorrah-on-the-Hudson thinks about dating an actress or plying women with alcohol. He is suing over what communities whose opinion matters to him think. A triable question, for the jury.

    nk (1d9030)

  86. How seriously should we take talk of US state secession?

    One troubling sign of our deteriorating civic mood is the shocking breadth of support for secession in the United States. At a time of widespread polarization—where people are arguing over a supposedly stolen election, vaccine mandates, mask-wearing, and the reality of climate change—a September 2020 Hofstra University poll found that “nearly 40 percent of likely voters would support state secession if their candidate loses.” This was followed by a YouGov and Bright Line Watch survey last June that revealed that 37% of Americans supported a “willingness to secede” when asked: “Would you support or oppose [your state] seceding from the United States to join a new union with [list of states in new union]?” Support for doing this was highest in the South and among Republicans.

    But liberals are interested, too. In a July 2021 University of Virginia poll, 41% of Biden supporters (as well as 52% of Trump voters) were at least somewhat in agreement with the idea “that it’s time to split the country, favoring blue/red states seceding from the union.”
    ………
    ……… [O]ne could imagine a situation similar to Europe where a number of separate entities would emerge, including a contingent of Southern states, the Northeast, the heartland, the West Coast, and rural parts of Oregon and Washington joining nearby states.

    In such a situation, it is hard to imagine what foreign or trade policy would look like. Would there be border controls between California and Nevada? Who would control the nuclear weapons stored on different bases around the country? Would there be import levies on Maine blueberries or Florida oranges sent outside their regions? Would each entity have its own treaties and international agreements? Would a cancer patient have to get a visa to be treated in one of the top hospitals in Massachusetts? How would water rights between California and neighboring states be handled?
    ………
    Recognizing the benefits of military force in a fragmented geopolitical environment, some leaders are moving to develop their own units. As an illustration, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis proposed the creation of a “Florida State Guard” that he—not the Pentagon or the Florida National Guard—would control. His stated goal is to have “the flexibility and the ability needed to respond to events in our state in the most effective way possible.” He requested $3.5 million to establish this unit, which would have 200 civilian members.
    ………
    ……… [S]ecession’s mere mention in public discourse reveals the dangers facing American democracy right now. The deeply rooted polarization that is fueling public mistrust of the “other side” is opening people to far-reaching possibilities that otherwise might not be considered; ideas once considered impossible may now fall within the realm of possibility.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  87. The judge applied New York values, and he should not have.

    No, he applied New York law, as Lindell sued in New York.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  88. Unintended Consequences?:

    Missouri trooper released fugitive because of act blocking federal gun laws, DOJ says
    ………
    ……… [A] blistering court brief filed Tuesday by the U.S. Department of Justice [outlines] the consequences of the Second Amendment Preservation Act, a new state law that prohibits Missouri police officers from helping enforce certain federal gun laws. The document paints a stark portrait of how SAPA, also known as House Bill 85, has disrupted cooperation between federal, state and local law enforcement.

    The DOJ says the Missouri state crime lab, operated by the Highway Patrol, is refusing to process evidence that would help federal firearms prosecutions. The Missouri Information and Analysis Center, also under the Highway Patrol, no longer cooperates with federal agencies investigating federal firearms offenses. And the Highway Patrol, along with many other agencies, have suspended joint efforts to enforce federal firearms laws.

    SAPA declares “invalid” many federal gun regulations that don’t have an equivalent in Missouri law. These include statutes covering weapons registration and tracking, and possession of firearms by some domestic violence offenders.

    Local departments are barred from enforcing them, or risk being sued for $50,000 by private citizens who believe their Second Amendment rights have been violated. Police are also prohibited from giving “material aid and support” to federal agents and prosecutors in enforcing those “invalid” laws against “law-abiding citizens” — defined as those who Missouri law permits to have a gun.
    ……..
    [The] DOJ says a Highway Patrol trooper in September released a federal fugitive back into the community rather than risk liability for the state agency. The brief provides no additional details, including the location of the incident or what the fugitive was wanted for.

    SAPA also initially hampered the investigation into the shooting of an Independence police officer in September, according to the DOJ. Officer Blaize Madrid-Evans was killed on Sept. 15 during an exchange of gunfire with a man sought for violating parole on a firearm conviction. The suspect, identified by authorities as Cody L. Harrison, died at the scene.

    “Later the same month, after an Independence police officer was killed during a shootout with a burglary suspect, state law enforcement initially declined routinely provided federal assistance in tracing the murder weapon,” the brief says.

    A week after Madrid-Evans’ death, (Republican Gov. Mike Parson) expressed an openness to amending the law. Speaking to reporters after a police officers’ memorial prayer breakfast in St. Charles, the former sheriff described SAPA as intended as a political statement.

    “You’re going to have to work with federal partners,” Parson said, according to KFVS. “And you’re going to have to work with other agencies. And we’ve got to make sure that can happen.”
    ………

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  89. It will annoy partisans of both men, but there is more than a little similarity between the policies followed by Trump and Biden.

    Noticing this is easier and less annoying when one has been shaken out of the “my side good / their side bad” frame of mind. I’m trying to deal with someone claiming that Biden’s policy is simply to do the opposite of whatever Trump did. But if that were true, he would have ripped up the Doha agreement and sent more troops to Afghanistan. He would have lifted all of Trump’s tariffs (instead of imposing new ones). Etc.

    This person claims that whatever Trump did was ipso facto in America’s best interest (because he was an “America First” president!), and therefore if another president chooses a different policy it’s only because he doesn’t have America’s best interest at heart. IOW: “My guy was a pure-hearted patriot with infallible instincts to do the right thing. There other guys are operating from bad motives and they don’t love America.” (Even when the policies are not all that different!)

    This person also says it would undoubtedly be good for America to have a lot more legal immigration — apparently failing to notice that Trump explicitly aimed to cut back legal immigration and circumvented Congress to put up more obstacles.

    It’s liberating when I don’t feel a need to defend one side and condemn the other at all times.

    Radegunda (5ecbf3)

  90. It would probably be even more liberating to ditch that “someone.” Why do you care about proving him wrong?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  91. Essentially, act as if the entire population is adequately immunized. Those who aren’t, well, it’s not like they were not warned.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/26/2021 @ 10:23 am

    Given the current omicron data this seems like common sense. And if things keep going like they have been we won’t be acting.

    frosty (8bb357)

  92. What is wrong with these drunk drivers???

    They were all immunized so that doesn’t apply. If they had not been, there would have been many quite sick and possibly some fatalities.

    I find it hilarious when antivaxxers point out that immunized people still get infected, usually with very mild symptoms, as if it was some proof that vaccines don’t work. See the Black Knight video above.

    The ship is in port not because people are incapacitated, but because protocols treat post-vaccine infections as if it was April 2020.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  93. R.I.P. Desmond Tutu

    Icy (6abb50)

  94. It’s liberating when I don’t feel a need to defend one side and condemn the other at all times.

    Only a fool would. But you are also comparing apples and oranges, too. Tariffs are, properly analyzed as a sin tax, but the sin involved can be quite different. Buying from China vs not buying from US steel makers.

    Biden is even imposing what amounts to domestic tariffs: In the BBB thing, the electric car tax credit is larger if you buy from union shops like GM, than if you buy from non-union ones like Tesla.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  95. Where Is Webb?

    This data-driven infographic shows the status of [the James Webb Space Telescope] on its journey to L2 orbit. The page constantly updates as Webb travels, deploys, and cools to operating temperature. If you have any issues with the page, hold the CTRL or CMD key and hit the F5 key which will reload the page and should clear any issues. (cntl/cmd shift R works too).

    The most recently completed deployment step for Webb is displayed along a timeline that also indicates the major deployment phase. ……

    The speed and distance numbers displayed track Webb’s distance travelled from Earth to entry into its L2 orbit. …….
    ……..
    ….…..[This] page displays 2 “hot side” and 2 “cold side” temperatures that are a good indication of overall temperature status and trends……..
    ………
    L2 is approximately 1 million miles from Earth (932056 miles/1.5M km to be exact). But Webb never actually arrives at L2, it is travelling to enter an orbit around L2. …….
    ……….

    Once in L2 orbit, this page will no longer track distance, but will track temperatures. The spacecraft will continue to cool to operating temperatures and numerous tests and calibrations occur to ready it for operations and its first images over the months that follow.
    #########

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  96. Mildly drunk drivers are preferred…

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  97. Missouri trooper released fugitive because of act blocking federal gun laws, DOJ says

    1. Maybe the tactics the Feds use, and their constant violations of in the 2nd Amendment, both in law and in actions, have unintended consequences, too. These state laws react to something.

    2. I await the DoJ’s blistering attack on a sanctuary city after an illegal they hid from the feds kills a child. But this will never happen as the current ICE leadership is FROM sanctuary cities.

    The bottom line is that rules don’t just happen. They are nearly always in response to someone being an assh0le.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  98. Mildly drunk drivers are preferred…

    I compared the militantly unvaccinated to drunk drivers. Trust you to get it wrong.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  99. You did? I apologize.

    Are the naturally immune considered drunk drivers?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  100. The naturally immune aren’t “drunk drivers” they’re also not the ones driving the behavior illustrated in these charts.

    https://acasignups.net/21/12/26/weekly-update-us-covid19-vaccination-levels-county-partisan-lean

    Time123 (97645e)

  101. Are the naturally immune considered drunk drivers?

    No, but they are driving without a license. The analogy breaks down here, but aside from any medical difference, (and aside from the word “immune” being inaccurate) the “naturally immune” may not be telling the truth, or may be mistaken. I know people who say things like “I had a really bad cold last February; must have been Covid, so I’m immune!”

    If, for some reason (e.g. entering the transplant patient ward) you are asked to show your immunization, um immunity, um resistance status, only those who have an actual verifiable immunization can really demonstrate anything.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  102. @101. I bet you I could get a similar chart based on sales of Metallica CDs.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  103. Radegunda (5ecbf3) — 12/26/2021 @ 12:14 pm

    — apparently failing to notice that Trump explicitly aimed to cut back legal immigration and circumvented Congress to put up more obstacles.

    But he didn’t talk about it except in elusive ways. He was entirely playing politics with this.

    This year Canada admitted a record number of legal immigrants (slighting beating 1913, although of course 1913 was much higher than now percentage wise. It was slightly over 1% of its current population . This is equivalent to slightly over 3 and a half million in the United States – )around 10,000 a day.

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  104. So it is about ID cards, not health.

    BuDuh (c64e54)

  105. 35. William Shatner was in two Columbo episodes – in the 1970s and in 1994. I didn’t see him listed in the credits in the 1994 one even though he played a main caracter

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  106. Webb is currently about 1 light second away from earth. 186,613 plus miles It took a little over 1 222/2 days to get there. A bit over 1/5 of the distance it needs to travel.

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  107. Lindell could be defamed if the upshot of the article is to make him out to be a liar about his personal life..

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  108. WHAT WE’RE NOT SEEING IS TESTS THAT COULD ENABLE PEOPLE TO TELL IF THAT INFECTION THAT GOT “LAST FEBRUARY” WAS COVID. It’s not common. Even the bad antibody tests are not covered by insurance

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  109. If they had not been, there would have been many quite sick and possibly some fatalities.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/26/2021 @ 12:48 pm

    Given the demographics of a US naval vessel I’d expect no fatalities and very few if any “quite sick”, but that’d depend on what quite sick means. The chances of the average person in good health dying from covid is “quite low”.

    frosty (fabbdf)

  110. @103, I doubt it. Also, if you read the info at the link they also propose a cause and effect relationship;

    Lower rates of vaccination on by trump supporter’s lead to higher rates of cases and deaths among Trump supporters.

    Time123 (97645e)

  111. The US Navy has lost 17 people to Covid so far. It’s not zero. Even an active-duty Marine has died.

    https://news.usni.org/2021/12/21/navy-loses-17th-sailor-to-covid-19

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  112. I find it hilarious when antivaxxers point out that immunized people still get infected, usually with very mild symptoms, as if it was some proof that vaccines don’t work. See the Black Knight video above.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/26/2021 @ 12:48 pm

    I would say I find it hilarious when the followers of the One and Only Holy Vax keep misrepresenting this but hilarious isn’t really the right word.

    People keep pointing this out because the Cult of the Vax keeps claiming the Vax will save us all if only everyone would recite the creed and accept the blessing.

    frosty (fabbdf)

  113. The chances of the average person in good health dying from covid is “quite low”.

    People keep on telling me that, but I know two people in reasonable (not perfect) health who died in the first month, before they knew to take precautions. I had spoken to each the day before they went to hospital. They were “having trouble breathing” which has always been magic words to get you through triage in the ER.

    Part of that may have been medical personnel not knowing what to do, or infected individuals not taking it seriously soon enough. The entire game is preventing pneumonia. If you can do that, recovery happens easily. If not, not. Patrick posted something about a person he knew during that time, too. That person recovered from a ventilator, which is not the way to bet.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  114. @112, it’s worse then that. If 10% of your staff aren’t able to function due to symptoms (coughing, fatigue, aches, etc) your ship may not be able to function. My boss got Covid, he’s fine now but missed 2 weeks of work because his cough was so bad. Doesn’t take too many people that bad go create a
    Serious short term problem.

    Time123 (97645e)

  115. @114 I know 2 ppl personally that died. My wife knows another 2. All were distant friends. I know far more who have been Ill. I don’t know anyone who was vaccinated who got very I’ll. The worst was my neighbor who said covid was the worst cold of his life. He’s also over 65.

    Time123 (97645e)

  116. Why do you care about proving him wrong?

    Why do you care that I find his thinking shallow and incoherent? Why does it bother you that I might actually challenge it instead of nodding and saying “Trump is always right and the other guy hates America”?

    Radegunda (5ecbf3)

  117. If our lowlife trash were not so comfortably accustomed to free medical care just a 911 call away, there’d be a lot fewer unvaccinated, I betcha.

    nk (1d9030)

  118. But he didn’t talk about it except in elusive ways. He was entirely playing politics with this.

    Somehow, I was aware of it nonetheless, and I found the facts of his policy actions easily.

    My point is: The person I’m referencing claims that everything Trump did in office was purely in America’s best interest, and that reversing any Trump policies can only be a result of sordid politics and not arise from concern about what’s good for America. And yet he has unwittingly disagreed sharply with a certain Trump policy.

    Another thing he does is be very biased in apportioning credit and blame. e.g. Trump completed Obama’s war on ISIS (which according to DOD info had scaled back the caliphate dramatically before Trump camp to office), and Trump is given all the credit, whereas Obama gets only blame for “putting ISIS in a position” to build a caliphate.
    Likewise: Biden completed Trump’s surrender agreement in Afghanistan, and yet Trump is held entirely innocent of the Taliban resurgence and the U.S. surrender to them (and not just the particulars of the final phase of the withdrawal, which wouldn’t necessarily have gone better under Trump, given has impatience to get the troops out faster). It’s really not an honest way to look at things.

    In days past, I might have tried to take a strictly partisan view of things, and always accuse the Dems of bad faith, but I don’t anymore.

    Radegunda (5ecbf3)

  119. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/26/2021 @ 3:44 pm

    The entire US navy and the Marines have lost 18 you say? What’s the ratio of that entire group to the number of people on this ship? Given those stats you’re expecting “some” fatalities?

    frosty (5e1b33)

  120. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/26/2021 @ 3:50 pm

    The question is whether you’re going to work from data and statistics or anecdotes and outliers, and ultimately fear. You’ve been making some very large claims that seem to be driven more by the later than the former.

    frosty (5e1b33)

  121. Radegunda (5ecbf3) — 12/26/2021 @ 4:00 pm

    I actually found it comical that you quote Jim Milers peace on earth debate vignette as the correct path forward and your example is that “someone” tasks you and you need to grind them into the ground.

    😂

    BuDuh (70b728)

  122. How many American lives could COVID vaccines have saved? According to a Kaiser Foundation study, 163,000:

    This brief examines how deaths from COVID-19 rank among other leading causes of death in the U.S. We find that COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in November 2021. We also find that in October, COVID-19 was the number 1 cause of death for people age 45-54 and in the top 7 leading causes of death for other age groups, aside from infants.

    We also estimate that 163,000 COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented by vaccination since June 2021, when safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines were widely available to all adults in the U.S.

    (Presumably, that number would be a little higher, now.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  123. Is there a peer reviewed version, Jim?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  124. A lot more than 163,000. Viruses propagate and mutate by bouncing from person to person. If enough people had been vaccinated as soon as a vaccine was available, the pandemic would have died out by now. But 62% is not enough.

    nk (1d9030)

  125. Since this is an open thread, I’ll mention that my brother sent me a picture of two wonderful Salvation Army ladies who were thanking me for the donation I suggested he give in my name, instead of sending me a present. (My sister-in-law made me some cookies — and she’s good cook.)

    And, I got to go cross country skiing this afternoon, something rarely possible in the Seattle area. If the weather folks are right, I might get in three, or even four more days of skiing.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  126. nk (1d9030) — 12/26/2021 @ 5:35 pm

    The virus “bounces” from person to person even when both are vaccinated. The only value in this sort of speculation is virtue signaling and playing the tribalism games.

    frosty (f27e97)

  127. @121, Frost. I welcome your newfound appreciation of data and look forward to you providing some to back up your claims.

    Time123 (97645e)

  128. Salvation Army leaders have now dared to accuse these same Americans of participating in a “racist” society where “racial groups are placed into a hierarchy, with White or lighter-skinned people at the top.”

    The organization’s “Let’s Talk About Racism” curriculum for its officers and soldiers has sparked national outrage for its admonition that white people “repent” for “racism” and for its belief that America “work[s] to keep White Americans in power.” Yet rather than admit that these woke ideas are not shared or supported by its donors or staff, the leadership of the Salvation Army has hidden its new effort from the public

    https://www.wfmz.com/news/politics/realclearwire/salvation-armys-woke-descent-hurts-those-it-serves/article_a180ecee-a114-5751-b6a3-6a2b011e0f86.html

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  129. The smallpox vaccination scar on my arm and the unscarred arms of both my daughter and her mother and just about everybody else six years younger than me signal me that I picked my tribe wisely.

    nk (1d9030)

  130. I got my first ever North Face, a vest, as a Christmas present. And now I am in a quandary. Should I wear it as a liner under my blue M60 jacket with my usual khakis and long-sleeved cotton shirt, or should I wear it the way it’s supposed to be worn: With a tight turtleneck sweater, skinny jeans, and Skechers sneakers, which I do not possess any of?

    nk (1d9030)

  131. In such a situation, it is hard to imagine what foreign or trade policy would look like. Would there be border controls between California and Nevada?

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1) — 12/26/2021 @ 11:42 am

    Please, God.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  132. Here’s an article explaining how the Salvation Army has been attacked from the left — and, recently,
    from the right.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  133. Another wonderful Year in Review from Dave Barry. (Don’t know whether it is behind a paywall. Sorry about that.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  134. It would probably be even more liberating to ditch that “someone.” Why do you care about proving him wrong?

    BuDuh (4a7846) — 12/26/2021 @ 12:21 pm

    BuDuh, your approach is what’s wrong with America these days. One shouldn’t just shun people one disagrees with. One should have a dialogue with them.

    Otherwise it devolves into tribes and poo-flinging.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  135. No Dave Barry paywall at The Miami Herald, just turn off your ad blocker.

    nk (1d9030)

  136. #136 – Thanks, nk.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  137. My understanding was that Radegunda has a “someone” in her life that is perpetually wrong and it is infuriating to her.

    I suggested that she should steer clear, norcal. I agree with you, dialogue is important.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  138. Thank you, for the heads up, Jim!

    nk (1d9030)

  139. But at some point in the segment, the panel sat in stunned silence for over a minute-and-a-half, as one of their own spoke the truth about how damaging the lockdowns and other governmental measures have been to our nation’s children. And it’s implicit in her answer that the media is not off the hook for the blatant lack of reporting about it.

    For me…my kids hear me rant about this every day, so I might as well tell you guys.

    It’s the crushing impact that our COVID policies have had on young kids and children. By far, the least serious risk for serious illness, but — I mean even teenagers, you know, a healthy teenager has a one in a million chance of getting and dying from COVID, which is way lower than dying in a car wreck on a road trip.

    But they have suffered and sacrificed the most, especially kids in underrepresented and at-risk communities. And now we have the surgeon general saying there’s a mental health crisis among our kids.

    The risk of suicide attempts among girls now up 51 percent this year. Black kids nearly twice as likely as white kids to die by suicide.

    School closures, lockdowns, cancelation of sports. You couldn’t even go on a playground in the D.C. area without cops scurrying, shooing the kids off.

    Tremendous negative impact on kids, and it’s been an afterthought. It’s hurt their dreams, their future, learning loss, risk of abuse, their mental health.

    And now, with our knowledge, our vaccines, if our policies don’t reflect a more measured and reasonable approach for our children, they will be paying for our generation’s decisions the rest of their lives.

    And that, to me, is the greatest underreported story of the past year.

    https://redstate.com/beccalower/2021/12/26/watch-face-the-nation-correspondent-stuns-fellow-panelists-into-silence-with-truth-about-covid-policies-harming-kids-n497519

    They do understand all those kids facilitate drunk driving, don’t they?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  140. I hear ya, BuDuh. My guess is that Radegunda isn’t driven to drink, but rather enjoys the campaign.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  141. Time123 (97645e) — 12/26/2021 @ 5:58 pm

    Were you able to work out the difference between cases and infections? Still having trouble with google and need help with research?

    frosty (f27e97)

  142. I can’t argue with that, norcal. I tend to enjoy similar jousts.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  143. RIP Richard Marcinko (81). First commander of Seal Team Six.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  144. @142, I see your desire for facts remains an abstract thing & not something to hold back your rhetoric.

    Time123 (97645e)

  145. What I think is that Tucker Carlson will greatly expand his understanding of “boring” if he were to read the anti-vax pilpul we get in these comment threads.

    nk (1d9030)

  146. The smallpox vaccination scar on my arm and the unscarred arms of both my daughter and her mother and just about everybody else six years younger than me signal me that I picked my tribe wisely.

    nk (1d9030) — 12/26/2021 @ 6:15 pm

    The math on that is interesting considering when they stopped giving it.

    frosty (f27e97)

  147. Pilpul. That’s the word I’ve been looking for to describe some of the commenting on here.

    I suspect that butthurt Trumpers are behind much of it.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  148. The virus “bounces” from person to person even when both are vaccinated. The only value in this sort of speculation is virtue signaling and playing the tribalism games.

    frosty (f27e97) — 12/26/2021 @ 5:56 pm

    Many drunk drivers don’t cause multi-fatality pileups, and some sober drivers do. Which by your logic means DUI laws don’t save any lives. They’re just a Bill Gates scam to implant 5-G chips into Intoxicated-Americans via unconstitutional breathalizers.

    Even if Covid vaccines only diminish virus spread marginally, which appears to be so, that still saves lives. No, not all the lives, just some of them. Isn’t that still a good thing? How much life-saving middle do you want to exclude?

    lurker (59504c)

  149. But their masterpieces par excellence were the Moon landings. All the Apollo missions actually. Their believability to people who are not normally credulous make Star Trek, Star Wars, and The Matrix look like third-grade school plays.

    nk (1d9030) — 12/26/2021 @ 7:53 am

    This has to be satire.

    Are you just trying to piss off DCSCA?

    norcal (3d2db9)

  150. @145 Do you really need me to look up the number of people in the US Navy for you? If you do all you need to do is ask nicely.

    If I did could you work out how many people would need to be on that ship for the expected deaths to be greater than 1?

    frosty (f27e97)

  151. Nk & NorCal, Trump has recently made some clear statements in support of the vaccine and given his supporters a path, or narrative, about how to support vaccination. There’s some resistance/ cognitive dissonance. Look up the Candice Owen’s response to her recent interview with him for an example of that. But I hope what he’s doing works and vaccination rates among his supporters rise. I think the reduction in severe outcomes that require hospitalizations that would be the likely result would be extremely helpful and should help us move past the need for other types of mitigation.

    One of the signs Trumps statements are moving his base will be when the rhetoric of his followers moves to “we were never against the vaccine and always said everyone needed to be vaccinated.” I’m hoping that happens soon.

    Time123 (97645e)

  152. Errol Webber
    @ErrolWebber
    If I had 4 smallpox shots in one year, and still got smallpox…

    I’d have some questions.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  153. lurker (59504c) — 12/26/2021 @ 8:05 pm

    If you read back in the comments the argument isn’t that the vaccine saves some lives, ie that dui laws save some lives. The argument was that the vaccine would have ended the covid pandemic. In your example that would mean dui laws end all drunk driving fatalities.

    After that you say my logic is dui laws don’t save any. No, that’s not my logic at all. Your second paragraph is then based on the flawed premise that I’m suggesting we don’t use any vaccines at all. This is also nowhere near what I’m saying.

    My comment was that the vaccine would not have ended the pandemic because it is still transmitted by the vaccinated. I have no idea how people then interpret that to mean I’m saying people shouldn’t get vaccinated. There is no logical path between the first statement and the second and I’ve never tried to describe one.

    Can you explain how you get from the first statement to the second?

    frosty (f27e97)

  154. Time123 (97645e) — 12/26/2021 @ 8:14 pm

    Trump fostered the anti-vaccine nonsense by downplaying the virus from the get go, and getting vaccinated on the down low. Tucker Carlson piled on by “just asking questions”, never revealing his own vaccine status, and fanning the flames of “they are coming for you”. It’s a rather symbiotic relationship for those two shysters.

    Trump raised this rabid dog, and now it is biting even him.

    He might be able to sway some, but I fear that it is now beyond his control. Words and actions have consequences.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  155. Frosty, no need to look anything up (people usually do that before making assertions but YMMV). I don’t really have a strong opinion on Kevins statements about the Navy, or a ton of interest in that particular topic. Maybe Kevin wants to spend more time taking about it but my only input was that illness didn’t need to be fatal to render a ship ineffective.

    Time123 (97645e)

  156. I have no idea how people then interpret that to mean I’m saying people shouldn’t get vaccinated.

    If anyone else said that, I didn’t notice. Either way it’s not what I said. I said you excluded the middle, but that’s partly because I mistook which comment you were responding to. I withdraw it.

    lurker (59504c)

  157. No Kevin or Nic around? What happened to the night shift?

    norcal (3d2db9)

  158. The entire US navy and the Marines have lost 18 you say? What’s the ratio of that entire group to the number of people on this ship? Given those stats you’re expecting “some” fatalities?

    Yes, but you said “zero.” Now you’re pushing the goalposts back. And, after the first few weeks, sailors who showed symptoms got put into sickbay long before they got pneumonia.

    And, what I said was

    “They were all immunized so that doesn’t apply. If they had not been, there would have been many quite sick and possibly some fatalities.”

    You play pretty fast and loose with other people’s comments because that’s the only way you can still push your drivel.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  159. In such a situation, it is hard to imagine what foreign or trade policy would look like. Would there be border controls between California and Nevada?

    Both ways. BUt there is no way that CA could secede, especially if Oregon and Washington wanted to as well. Too much affect on the rest of the country. Army, Air Force, Marines, complete with tanks and airstrikes, followed by hangings.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  160. As if summoned! Hi, Kevin!

    norcal (3d2db9)

  161. I have some questions about New Mexico. When I was in Las Cruces earlier this year, I noticed palm trees. Does Albuquerque also have palm trees?

    What is the tax burden like there? Income. Property. Sales.

    Do you guys have water shortage problems like much of the west?

    norcal (3d2db9)

  162. Income tax is about 5%, fairly flat.

    Property tax has a complicated formula but the result is 1% of sale price, with an annual bump (a bit less than a Prop 13 rule).

    Sales tax…. well there isn’t actually a “sales tax”but there is a “gross receipts tax” on everything but medical, including services. Including food. You will pay your maid sales gross receipts tax. If you are a contractor and your customer is in-state you will charge your customers the same thing.

    But, for all intents and purposes there’s a sales tax on most everything, which varies by county and city. In ABQ it’s 7.875%, in Rio Rancho 7.6875%. It can be as low as 5.125% or as high as 9.25% depending where you are.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  163. Water is an issue, but we do have the Rio Grande running through ABQ and some nearby mountain snow packs. NM is very high desert (ABQ is above 5000 feet). There is a lot of aquifer, and outlying homes get water from wells. The counties are injecting tertiary-treated waste water back into the ground.

    Water isn’t cheap but it’s noticeably cheaper that LA DWP. I have a monthly $100-$110 water+sewer bill year-round.

    Electricity is, of course, more expensive in summer, where temps are in the 90s most every day and nights are warm too. But it’s about 20 degrees cooler than Phoenix, and dry. Still, electricity in the top tier is about $0.20/kwH which is again less than LA DWP which is at least ten cents higher. A LOT of solar though. Electric bill in winter is about $100, but pushes $400 in August-September.

    The state has a lot of natural gas and oil, funding a full third of the state budget. Although the current government (that is cementing itself in through a nasty gerrymander) is uber-green. They hate themselves for having all that dirty oil money. For some reason natural gas prices have doubled in recent months, allegedly due to the Texas utility meltdown.

    Gun laws: You must do the federal background check when buying a gun, but there is no state registration or permitting unless you want to carry concealed. For that you need a (must-issue) permit. You can open-carry without one. A lot of the state is pretty raw country.

    Traffic. I’ve heard of it. Freeways are wide open. They get pissy about driving real fast on city streets.

    Crime: a problem, particularly in ABQ proper. Car thefts are an issue. Home burglaries not so much (see above about gun laws). There is a high murder rate, too. Breaking Bad was set here for a reason. Also a lot of personal injury lawyers.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  164. Oh, for Californians: Houses in the ABQ area are reasonably priced. A 2500 sf new tract house with many features is generally under $400K. Middle-class people can buy homes on a mortgage and not have to sell their blood to pay it. If you sell a CA house you will have your pick here.

    The place is fairly well integrated and Hispanic families have often been here since it was Mexico.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  165. Very generous write-up. Thanks, Kevin.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  166. Jim Miller – Mnt. Ranier has snow on it a good part of the year, not that far of a drive.

    mg (8cbc69)

  167. “The stakes are too high.” – VP Kamala Harris 12/26/21

    No, dear. The steaks are too high. London Broil: $10/lb., sweetie.

    Inflation: let’s go Brandon!

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  168. @66. Some conspiracy nut badgered ol’Buzz ’bout that— and he decked ’em. 😉

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  169. @66. Some conspiracy nut badgered ol’Buzz ’bout that— and he decked ’em.

    And Robert Mitchum decked Primo Carnera in a bar fight too, they say. Actors! What’re ya gonna do?

    Yeah, yeah, they really sent people on 500,000 mile round trips to the Moon, even down to the Moon and back up and home again, from 1968 to 1972, and then for the next fifty years never sent them farther than 270 miles from the Earth’s surface. Yeah, yeah, sure, right, that’s the ticket!

    nk (1d9030)

  170. Anyway. Cyrano de Bergerac did it first. Flew to the Moon. In 1640. Right after he killed 100 men in a swordfight. In one night.

    nk (1d9030)

  171. And I also have a question for Nic, BTW. Do they still teach the melting ice cubes in a glass of water in grade school? You know, the ice cubes melt but the water level remains the same? Or is that now verboten climate change denialism?

    nk (1d9030)

  172. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/26/2021 @ 11:59 pm

    Not moving the goalposts. Just simple math. It’s not possible for a fractional person to die. So, the expected fatalities need to be in whole numbers. With roughly 300k active members in the Navy, rounding down and not including the reserves, doing the math on 17 out of 300k you’d need over 15k people on the boat to get north of 1 expected death. Given the size of the boat will likely be less than 15k my estimate of 0 deaths seems more likely, and more supportable, than your estimate of 1 or more.

    If I’m moving the goalposts what do you call not being able to decide if you want to argue fatalities or illness. You’re trying to shift back to illness to keep breathing some life back into your claimed death odds.

    frosty (f27e97)

  173. Time123 (97645e) — 12/26/2021 @ 8:27 pm

    Frosty, no need to look anything up (people usually do that before making assertions but YMMV)

    This has been obvious for some time. If it agrees with your biases it’s good. If it disagrees it needs full peer review and a sign from God.

    I don’t really have a strong opinion on Kevins statements about the Navy, or a ton of interest in that particular topic.

    I know. You were just trolling.

    Maybe Kevin wants to spend more time taking about it but my only input was that illness didn’t need to be fatal to render a ship ineffective.

    Which strangely, but not unexpectedly, isn’t something I said. It’s almost as if you imagined something that was easier to argue about because you’ve got so much straw and those bad arguments won’t make themselves.

    frosty (f27e97)

  174. One thing I’ll add on to Kevin’s posts on Albuquerque– the cost of housing has gone up quite a bit there, relatively speaking, in the last couple of years especially. You used to be able to get a good size house in the city about 5-6 years ago, when I lived there, for $200K or less. The average is about $290k now. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but Albuquerque is really a blue collar city, by and large, even with Sandia Labs and the Air Force Base in town.

    If the city leaders manage to make it a tech/space magnet (the crime rate and bad schools tend to chase these companies away so far), housing will skyrocket just like it has in Denver and Austin the last ten years.

    Factory Working Orphan (b8e9a8)

  175. mg – Starting about 1980, I’ve skied on Mt Rainier in every month except October. One of the best times was in the middle of a July after a snowy winter, when there was 5 feet of snow up at Paradise. As I skied along, I could see a few flowers on the bare patches, which was fun.

    But I haven’t driven for a few years for a number of reasons, notably cataracts (which have now been fixed). And for reasons that escape me, King County doesn’t run buses down there, regularly.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  176. At the start of 2021 a ranch at the end of the road in Rio Arriba County up against NF boundary were reasonably priced compared to Colorado ranches. They seem to have all sold.

    steveg (e81d76)

  177. #173 Here’s a review of expected value for you.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  178. https://www.landsofamerica.com/Tierra-Amarilla-NM/all-land/sort-acre-high/

    inventory seems low by several measures quality and acreage have really dropped

    steveg (e81d76)

  179. RIP biologist Edward O. Wilson (92).

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  180. If the city leaders manage to make it a tech/space magnet (the crime rate and bad schools tend to chase these companies away so far), housing will skyrocket just like it has in Denver and Austin the last ten years.

    Housing prices vary quite a bit, and there are older houses for sale well under $300K. An acre of flat land on a paved road, with utilities and near civilization, in Rio Rancho is a bit over $100K.

    Zip codes to check via Zillow et al, 87124 (ABQ-adjacent Rio Rancho) and 87111 (middle-class ABQ).

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  181. Yeah, yeah, they really sent people on 500,000 mile round trips to the Moon

    Of the 12 people who walked on the moon, 4 are still alive, Buzz being oldest. The day may come when that number is zero.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  182. Gary Larson did a funny expected value cartoon some years ago, showing an American family with their 2.5 children — 2 whole children, and a half a child. (Today, he would have to show them with 1.6 children, but the joke would still work.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  183. Kevin M@93: See the Black Knight video above.

    What is this, and where is the link?

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  184. One thing I’ll add on to Kevin’s posts on Albuquerque– the cost of housing has gone up quite a bit there,

    Builders shut down in 2020, but demand continued to climb. They’ve started building again, but it’s still not on pace. My house has appreciated 30% in three years. Rents have gone up too. A two bedroom apt that we looked at in 2018 (in case we had to wait for a house to be built) was about $1100/month. Now, it’s $1500/month. If you aren’t picky, there are 2 bedroom apartments for as low as $800. There are no bad commutes.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  185. @65, Sammy.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  186. A general comment about vaccinations:

    There is no good reason to refuse a vaccination during a pandemic. There are stupid reasons, and there are selfish reasons and there are stupid selfish reasons.

    I live in a community, and nation, and a civilization, all of which are under attack by this foreign-sourced virus. If it had been an actual invasion, a refusal on my part to work for the common good would be seen — correctly — as stupid or selfish. “Don’t you know there’s a war on, buddy?”

    So often we hear people talk about their “rights”, but they forget that responsibility to the society that protects those freedoms comes with those rights. Even if the society refrains from forcing one to join in the effort be ASSURED that slackers will be noted and when the time comes your fellows will remind you that you were a slacker.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  187. SF: But he didn’t talk about it except in elusive ways. He was entirely playing politics with this.

    119. Radegunda (5ecbf3) — 12/26/2021 @ 4:18 pm

    Somehow, I was aware of it nonetheless, and I found the facts of his policy actions easily.

    I knew it too.

    But you had to read a little bit about it, especially the legislative progress of on immigration bills, or complaints coming from Democrats about his Administration’s positions or complaints coming from non profits about what he had done without changing any law, to know that. Trump engaged in a little bit of double talk to his targeted audience. He did not emphasize what he was doing. He brought things up only as needed to prevent passage of a bill. Your friend probably follows news coverage a lot less. He may know that people specially authorized by a special bill that passed Congress to immigrate from Afghanistan were not getting visas, and even that Trump was engaged in “extreme vetting” but not the practical effects of that.

    My point is: The person I’m referencing claims that everything Trump did in office was purely in America’s best interest, and that reversing any Trump policies can only be a result of sordid politics and not arise from concern about what’s good for America. And yet he has unwittingly disagreed sharply with a certain Trump policy.

    Yes.

    Another thing he does is be very biased in apportioning credit and blame. e.g. Trump completed Obama’s war on ISIS (which according to DOD info had scaled back the caliphate dramatically before Trump camp to office), and Trump is given all the credit, whereas Obama gets only blame for “putting ISIS in a position” to build a caliphate.

    He can blame Obama for creating the problem in the first place, but he also did something starting with ppreventing the fall of Baghdad something Biden did not do for Kabul. And also ISIS might be the fault of Bush. Not just for a bad policy (until the end of 2006) of not knowing who was fighting us in Iraq (thinkin this could only be the remnants of Saddam Hussein’s state) but a policy of assassinating all the rivals of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Because they got accurate information on their location – probably coming from Baghdadi I would say.

    Likewise: Biden completed Trump’s surrender agreement in Afghanistan, and yet Trump is held entirely innocent of the Taliban resurgence and the U.S. surrender to them

    That’s right. Biden at least claimed that he couldn;t back out of Trump’s agreement, even though he did back out of it in terms of the deadline. Biden claimed there’d be attacks on U.S. soldiers )and implied that was the only consideration) if he backed out, yet there weren’t.

    (and not just the particulars of the final phase of the withdrawal, which wouldn’t necessarily have gone better under Trump, given has impatience to get the troops out faster). It’s really not an honest way to look at things.

    Yes. I don’t know what this is.

    Half the time Trump Trump seems to claim he would have done something different,

    In days past, I might have tried to take a strictly partisan view of things, and always accuse the Dems of bad faith, but I don’t anymore.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  188. 176 – Jim Miller, I envy you. Love Ranier. Telemarking on Ranier during a full moon is a memory I cherish.

    mg (8cbc69)

  189. Aaron Ginn
    @aginnt
    Let’s go back in time to 3/29/21

    “No we know that the vaccines work well enough that the virus stops with every vaccinated person… The virus does not infect them…It cannot use a vaccinated person as a host to get more people.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/aginnt/status/1475193955704881152

    🤣

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  190. #189 mg – That goes both ways. I experimented with the Telemark turn, decades ago, but never got very good at it.

    (Those unfamiliar with it may want to search for a video or two. It is a very pretty turn.)

    By the way, I would recommend cross country skiing as an overall exercise for almost everyone.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  191. 187, Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/27/2021 @ 9:10 am

    There is no good reason to refuse a vaccination during a pandemic.

    Yes, there is. You could get infected when you get a vaccine, and even because you got a vaccine, or a test, and were in close contact with infected people because where else could you find a greater concentration of Covid positive people. It’s obvious that test and vaccination sites may be superspreader events. Is anybody checking?

    The time for getting vaccinated – for any disease – is when the disease is not prevalent where you are. Now it may be too late to get vaccinated if you are unvaccinated and never contracted the disease, although maybe vaccination is the safer bet.

    The vaccine won’t help an unvaccinated and never infected person for several days at least, (the topping point fora booster shot is about two days) and in fact will make things worse. Most likely it might not make a difference, though.

    But the big reason for not getting a vaccine is the idea it is unnecessary because they already had it (diminishing maybe with time) or, in the case of children under 12, won’t get noticeably sick. Some of the people on the committee that recommended authorizing the vaccine for children were reluctant to do that because they were afraid it might be mandated and they didn’t think every child should get it – either way you are gambling. Possibly they exaggerated the downside, but there is very little upside, either.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/30/health/covid-vaccine-kids-parents.html

    According to a survey released Thursday by Kaiser Family Foundation, scarcely one in three parents will permit their children in this newly eligible age group to be vaccinated immediately. Two-thirds were either reluctant or adamantly opposed. An Axios-Ipsos poll found that 42 percent of parents of these children said they were unlikely to have their children vaccinated.

    Erin Gauch, of Middletown, R.I., got herself and her two older children, ages 14 and 12, vaccinated this summer. But she’s worried about the potential side effects of the shots for her son. One of those side effects is myocarditis, which can cause a weakening of the heart muscle, that has been reported in a very small number of teenage boys and young men after getting a Covid shot.

    The myocarditis (which is both rare and very treatable if detected) probably stems from an overly strong immune reaction.

    And then the immunity created by an infection is better than that of the vaccine (partially true, especially for getting re-infected because an infection created IgA and the vaccine does not)

    And there can be an unwillingness to accept the discomfort caused by the vaccine. And the feeling there are treatments, except now we are in a gap when there are not.

    There are stupid reasons, and there are selfish reasons and there are stupid selfish reasons.

    Where doo these reasons fall?

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2787289

    Selfish (on behalf of their children) yes. But the argument for vaccinating children now are also stupid. It’s the faint faint possibility that that may prevent transmission to a vulnerable person.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  192. “No we know that the vaccines work well enough that the virus stops with every vaccinated person… The virus does not infect them…It cannot use a vaccinated person as a host to get more people.”

    That may still be true, as far as a serious infection is concerned. The virus may have to run through several people if you start with someone who has an asymptomatic or mildly asymptomatic case.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  193. In days past, I might have tried to take a strictly partisan view of things, and always accuse the Dems of bad faith, but I don’t anymore.

    This was a quote from Radegunda.

    I look at things one by one and decide whether it is bad faith on a case by case basis.

    Most things they campaign on is in bad faith.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  194. 164. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/27/2021 @ 12:40 am

    Gun laws: You must do the federal background check when buying a gun,

    Except for guns manufactured before 1898 (which I think use black powder but they don’t have to use black powder)

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  195. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/27/2021 @ 9:10 am

    So, the collective need should be put ahead of an individual’s greed or selfishness? The community, and nation, and a civilization superseded the “rights” of the individual?

    And eventually the people who don’t get on board will be punished?

    frosty (f27e97)

  196. Sammy Finkelman (c49738) — 12/27/2021 @ 10:03 am

    I wonder how many people don’t notice the serious in your comment. I think some read right over that part and it confirms their belief that the vaccine does in fact stop with every vaccinated person.

    frosty (f27e97)

  197. From Bloomberg Business Week, December 13, 2021 issue, top of page 51: (part of thr chart)

    HCoV-229E Case fatality rate not available – identified in 1966
    HCov-OC43 Case fatality rate not available – identified in 1967
    SARS-CoV 10% – identified in 2002
    HCov-NL63 Case fatality rate not available – identified in 2004
    HCov-HKU1 Case fatality rate not available – identified in 200467
    MERS-CoV 34% – identified in 2012
    SARS-CoV-2 1% to 1.7$ – identified in 2019.

    OC43 is now thought by some to be descended from the 1890-1 flu.

    The first two cause on;y cold symptoms. NL63 adds hypoxia and croup and HKU1 adds shortness of breath. SARS causes fever, aches and headaches, MERS lists fever, cough and chills. COVID lists fever, cough, shortness of breath.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  198. #173 Here’s a review of expected value for you.

    Jim Miller (edcec1) — 12/27/2021 @ 7:44 am

    I notice you don’t give an expected number of fatalities given the number of people on the ship (whether they’re all vaccinated or not).

    The article says that ship has a 105-person crew. What do you think are the chances “some” of those 105 die given their average age and general physical health?

    It’s this sort of thing that keeps casinos in the black.

    I understand that trying to support the argument for the fear and death p r 0 n undermines the effort, especially if you’ve got to do it with numbers. But this is just ridiculously transparent.

    frosty (f27e97)

  199. You could get infected when you get a vaccine,

    No you goddam cannot. At least not from the vaccine.

    else could you find a greater concentration of Covid positive people.

    Nearly anywhere else. At a vax site you have people who are almost all wanting to avoid the vaccine. They are being more careful than people who do not care. So, at a supermarket, on a subway car(!), at a Trump rally.

    But the big reason for not getting a vaccine is the idea it is unnecessary because they already had it

    That’s one of the stupid reasons. Also, assumes facts not in evidence.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  200. frosty (f27e97) — 12/27/2021 @ 10:18 am

    their belief that the vaccine does in fact stop with every vaccinated person.

    I think people started off thinking so. This was never noticed much with other vaccines, both because the diseases are now very rare, and outbreaks were contained (with vaccinations? with tracing?) and they weren’t diagnosing it very readily.

    The CDC actually had to revise its definition of what a vaccine does because of the criticism it came under by the anti-vaxxers. You could say they got sharpened. A vaccine is never expected to totally prevent the beginning of an infection.

    And now the question – how serious are cold viruses? What about the old coronaviruses that cause only colds?

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83987-3

    We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults (≥ 18 years) admitted to the ward of a university teaching hospital for suspected viral infection from October 2012 to December 2017. Multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to test for respiratory viruses. Multivariate logistic regression was used to compare mortality among patients with HCoV 229E and HCoV OC43 infections. The main outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Of 8071 patients tested, 1689 were found to have a respiratory virus infection. Of these patients, 133 had HCoV infection, including 12 mixed infections, 44 HCoV 229E infections, and 77 HCoV OC43 infections. HCoV 229E infections peaked in January and February, while HCoV OC43 infections occurred throughout the year. The 30-day all-cause mortality was 25.0% among patients with HCoV 229E infection, and 9.1% among patients with HCoV OC43 infection (adjusted odds ratio: 3.58, 95% confidence interval: 1.19–10.75). Infections with HCoVs 229E and OC43 appear to have different seasonal patterns, and HCoV 229E might be more virulent than HCoV OC43.

    No, I don;t really think it’s 25% for 229E (which has had some of it taken up by omicron) That would make it much worse than Covid.

    The denominator is people who got very sick (and probably had other problems) and also were diagnosed with 229E.

    That throws off the figures.

    In South Africa outcomes for Omicron are much better than for Delta – in the UK it is the same. But it all depends on what stage is it diagnosed or on what stage people get hospitalized on average.

    The case fatality rate is a kind of a useless figure

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  201. Fatality risk from vaccine, Sammy? Less than one in a million, possibly less than one in 10 million, certainly MUCH MUCH less than the risk of death from the actual virus. Which is, so far, 2.7 per thousand inhabitants in the USA, and 13 per thousand infected.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  202. That throws off the figures.

    Yes, using only “people at death’s door” will bias the death numbers.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  203. You could get infected when you get a vaccine,

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/27/2021 @ 10:45 am

    No you goddam cannot. At least not from the vaccine.

    Not from a vaccine. But from the people standing around if there is a line. Even more likely to be a Covid super spreader event: A mass Covid testing site, particularly indoors..

    else could you find a greater concentration of Covid positive people.

    Nearly anywhere else. At a vax site you have people who are almost all wanting to avoid the vaccine.[sic]

    To avoid the virus. At the point in time, it is biased toward people newly worried. Who is newly worried? People maybe who have a reason to be worried. (although many may come because of the mandates).

    They are being more careful than people who do not care. So, at a supermarket, on a subway car(!), at a Trump rally.

    Even at the eight of the spring 2020 epidemic in New York only about 1 in 120 people were infected with Covid at any given time. This should be higher aat a testing site and even a vaccination site. They did a survey of in New York in 2020 of where people might have gotten infected. They were surprised that people who traveled by subway did not have a higher rate. That is probably because of the extent of air exchange on a subway Buses probably are a whole different story. There were many people who they couldn’t figure out at all. It probably floated in the air, or maybe it was a bathroom or an elevator.

    A Trump rally is right. It could be higher than a testing site if many people come there and it is indoors.

    But the big reason for not getting a vaccine is the idea it is unnecessary because they already had it

    That’s one of the stupid reasons. Also, assumes facts not in evidence.

    It’s one of the things people talk about. If they made it easier for someone to find out their immune status (for it may be less than ideal) they might get more takers.

    Instead they want to make it hard, and it does not exempt anyone from the mandate here, eve if they tested positive at the time.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  204. BuDuh (4a7846) — 12/27/2021 @ 9:32 am

    Interesting quote, but I think we can all agree that Maddow isn’t an epidemiologist or any kind of medical expert, but it works well if “owning the libs” is what motivates you.
    Gottlieb, who is an expert, makes a good graphical case that the vaccines effectively stop hospitalizations, which seems like a good thing to me.

    Paul Montagu (890c5a)

  205. vaccine.[sic]

    my bad

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  206. Instead they want to make it hard, and it does not exempt anyone from the mandate here, eve if they tested positive at the time.

    Cost to test vaccination status: zero.

    Cost to test antibody levels: >$100 and inconclusive as to “immunity”

    Again, why not just get the &%^%ing vaccine? Is it this?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  207. #203
    Hi Kevin
    Isn’t this how COVID numbers are done?

    “using only “people at death’s door” will bias the death numbers”

    COVID has been a virus that does a very serious job of killing off “people at death’s door”. We know the elderly above 65 are more or less at death’s door just by age. The virus is even deadlier to elderly with certain life threatening conditions.

    Take away the people who died from COVID who were already at deaths door and your fatality rates move strongly towards the fatality rate of the vaccine… at which point we can then argue that the vaccine only kills those who may not have known they were at deaths door, but were.

    steveg (e81d76)

  208. The USA is currently under leadership that suffers from zero-risk bias and the law of triviality.

    steveg (e81d76)

  209. BTW, I’m impressed with anyone who can telemark down a ski slope, and all the more impressed with those who can telemark down Rainier.
    We’re in Sunriver right now and we bailed yesterday on Mt. Bachelor because of the blizzard-like conditions.

    Paul Montagu (890c5a)

  210. Steve,

    The “death’s door” comment involved taking hospitalized patients as the basis for statistics, when the far vaster number of Covid illnesses (est. 52 million) are never hospitalized.

    As for only the very old or very sick succumbing to Covid — that is not true. Certainly the sicker one is to start with, the more dangerous it is, but that is true of any illness. Usually, non-morbid obesity, cancer recovery, asthma, being 65 or childhood diabetes are not conditions “at death’s door.” Yet they are all at some risk of death from Covid — particularly if there is no treatment or self-care early on.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  211. Take away the people who died from COVID who were already at deaths door and your fatality rates move strongly towards the fatality rate of the vaccine…

    Uh, no. This is wildly innumerate.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  212. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/27/2021 @ 12:16 pm

    But pitching the idea that not getting the vaccine gives someone an equivalent chance of dying from covid as a person jumping out of a plane without a parachute is? Or the idea that out of 105 relatively young and healthy people you expect “some” fatalities from COVID?

    frosty (f27e97)

  213. Facts are useful things to ground discussions about risk

    In November 2021 Covid was the 3rd most common cause of death behind Heart Disease and all forms of cancer combined for all ages. Lookin by month, by age group, it’s been a top 5 for everyone over the age of 35 and a top 10 for everyone over the age of 5 for all of 2021, except for June with people age 5-14 where Covid was 11.

    So, it seems fair to me to say that Covid is a significant source of fatalities for all age groups. I don’t think discussions about public health policy for Covid that treat it as a source of death are ‘fear mongering’.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  214. RIP film director Jean-Marc Vallée (58).

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  215. Link doesn’t open for me, Time. Is that a “died with Covid” tally or a “died strictly from Covid” tally?

    BuDuh (3a705a)

  216. Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/27/2021 @ 12:58 pm

    When you adjust for comorbidities you get a different set of stats.

    From the article:

    92.8% of the COVID-19 deaths were associated with a pre-existing comorbidity. The risk of mortality associated with at least one comorbidity combined was 1113 times higher than that with no comorbidity.

    Those are not small differences.

    It is not the significant source of fatalities for all people in all age groups that the simple stats would make it seem. People confounding those stats either don’t understand that or are intentionally misusing the “facts”.

    You may be able to point to some cases that you personally don’t consider fear mongering. That says more about you than whether fear mongering is going on. It’s not by accident that Biden made his “winter of death” claim.

    frosty (f27e97)

  217. Link doesn’t open for me, Time. Is that a “died with Covid” tally or a “died strictly from Covid” tally?

    BuDuh (3a705a) — 12/27/2021 @ 1:19 pm

    As far as I know all of the data is “with”. There isn’t really such a thing as “died strictly from covid”.

    frosty (f27e97)

  218. Happy Kwanzaa!

    asset (aa50d7)

  219. Buduh, Sorry, embedded links haven’t been working well for me.

    https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/covid19-and-other-leading-causes-of-death-in-the-us/

    I believe they’re listing ‘cause of death’ in the data table

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  220. Frosty, I don’t think the data around co-morbidities changes my conclusion that number of fatalities from covid are high and that it’s not ‘fear mongering’ to develop public policy geared towards reducing the number of people who die from Covid. Additionally, both heart disease and cancer deaths will also include many of those same co-morbidities. Finally the excess death statistic https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm addresses both the co-morbidity concern as well is that ‘death from vs. death with’ concern.

    Bottom line; Because of Covid a LOT more people have died then otherwise would have.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  221. Alleged ‘dead’ Georgia voters found alive and well after 2020 election
    ……..
    Election investigators found just four absentee ballots in the 2020 presidential election from voters who had died, all of them returned by relatives.

    The State Election Board referred the cases to the attorney general’s office this month after investigators reviewed dozens of allegations. Almost all voters were found to be alive.

    The tiny number of ballots actually cast on behalf of deceased voters contrasts with then-President Donald Trump’s false accusation that there were 5,000 dead voters in Georgia’s election.
    …….
    In one case, a 74-year-old widow submitted an absentee ballot on behalf of her husband, William Nelson, after he died in September 2020.

    “He was going to vote Republican, and she said, ‘Well, I’m going to cancel your ballot because I’m voting Democrat.’ It was kind of a joke between them,” Barry Bishop, an attorney for Sharon Nelson of Canton, told the State Election Board. “She received the absentee ballot and carried out his wishes. … She now realizes that was not the thing to do.”
    ……..
    In another case, a ballot was submitted for deceased Augusta voter Leon Rowe. Investigators found that the signature on his absentee ballot envelope matched the handwriting of his mother, Alline Rowe, who died in October 2020.

    Earlier in the year, the State Election Board found evidence that Sherry Cook of Trion had submitted an absentee ballot for her husband, Donald Cook, who died several months before the election.

    Cook told investigators that she and her daughter had returned the ballot after Donald Cook signed it before he died, but investigators said that was impossible because the ballot wasn’t issued until after his death.

    The board also moved forward with a case in which the widow of Herman Robert Jackson of Covington, Glynda Jackson, told investigators she filled out his ballot because she knew how he wanted to vote.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  222. CDC recommends shorter COVID isolation, quarantine for all
    U.S. health officials on Monday cut isolation restrictions for Americans who catch the coronavirus from 10 to five days, and similarly shortened the time that close contacts need to quarantine.

    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials said the guidance is in keeping with growing evidence that people with the coronavirus are most infectious in the two days before and three days after symptoms develop.
    ……..
    Early research suggests omicron may cause milder illnesses than earlier versions of the coronavirus. But the sheer number of people becoming infected — and therefore having to isolate or quarantine — threatens to crush the ability of hospitals, airlines and other businesses to stay open, experts say.
    ……..
    The guidance is not a mandate; it’s a recommendation to employers and state and local officials. ……
    …….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  223. COVID virus can spread to heart, brain days after infection, study says
    The virus that causes COVID-19 can spread to a patient’s heart and brain days after infection — and survive for months in organs, according to a new study that may shed light on the so-called “long COVID.”

    Scientists at the US National Institutes of Health in Maryland studied tissues taken from 44 people who had died after contracting the illness during the first year of the pandemic in the US, Bloomberg News reported.

    They discovered SARS-CoV-2 RNA in various parts of the body — including the heart and brain — for as long as 230 days after the onset of symptoms, according to the news outlet.
    ………
    “This paper sheds some light, and may help explain why long COVID can occur even in people who had mild or asymptomatic acute disease,” he added.

    Scientists have cited evidence both for and against the likelihood that the deadly bug infects cells outside the lungs and respiratory tract, Bloomberg noted.

    “Our results collectively show that while the highest burden of SARS-CoV-2 is in the airways and lung, the virus can disseminate early during infection and infect cells throughout the entire body, including widely throughout the brain,” said the team, led by Daniel Chertow, who runs the NIH’s emerging pathogens section.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  224. 191 – Jim Miller – My wife was a Telemarking wonder. Won bump competitions, but preferred Powder. As us all.
    The Biathlon is a test like no other.

    mg (8cbc69)

  225. https://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/curtis-houck/2021/12/27/cbs-edits-out-own-reporter-slamming-school-closures-causing-mental

    If you want further evidence why people doubt the narrative and resist the indoctrination, look no further than CBS disappearing any remarks that are contrary to the approved message.

    Stalin would be envious.

    NJRob (fbe422)

  226. Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/27/2021 @ 1:44 pm

    There’s a lot of good data that football players are seriously affected by repeated head injuries. Do you think we should all wear better football helmets to mitigate the effects from concussions?

    frosty (f27e97)

  227. If there’s a likelihood of being exposed to head trauma you should probably wear a helmet. This would include football.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  228. Our World in Data has the latest excess COVID mortality statistics calculated by the Economist. Here, for example, is their estimate for six nations, including the United States: As of the end of December, we have had, net, approximately 1 million cumulative deaths because of COVID. (You can explore further by adding countries.)

    Note that excess mortality takes into account those at “death’s door”, by subtracting the expected deaths, based on the last five years or so.

    (If you can read simple graphs and tables, you can explore many more topics on COVID, and other subjects at the site. Note, please, that not all of the site is as up to date as the graph I linked to.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  229. Cant imagine wearing a helmet riding a bike or skiing.

    mg (8cbc69)

  230. #225 True. (For those unfamiliar with the biathlon challenges, here’s a simplified explanation: You alternate skiing fast and hard with target shooting, so you have to go, almost instantly, from all-out physical effort to as close to complete relaxation as you can get, repeatedly.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  231. Link doesn’t open for me, Time. Is that a “died with Covid” tally or a “died strictly from Covid” tally?

    Is that like “rape-rape”?

    Fun fact: modern medicine keeps people alive with all kinds of ailments. People who would continue to live had they not contracted Covid are indeed “killed by Covid.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  232. Cant imagine wearing a helmet riding a bike or skiing.

    I can show you a bike helmet in three pieces, after an accident the wearer walked away from. Woman ran a stop sign while texting and sent my friend flying. I’m glad the helmet ws not his head.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  233. People who would continue to live had they not contracted Covid are indeed “killed by Covid.”

    Please post the numbers.

    BuDuh (528da0)

  234. #229 By the way, the wide bounds for the Chinese “excess mortality” numbers shows us how little the Economist trusts the numbers it has been able to find in China. That distrust has been earned.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  235. If there’s a likelihood of being exposed to head trauma you should probably wear a helmet. This would include football.

    Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/27/2021 @ 2:53 pm

    This is very true. Everyone has a likelihood of being exposed to head trauma. Are you wearing one now? Concussions are very serious. Did you know that 5 in 10 concussions go unreported or undetected. TBI is also a major cause of death and disability. In 2019 there were an average 166 TBI related deaths per day.

    The truth is that because of people not wearing helmets a lot more people die than otherwise would have. Hopefully this has convinced you that you should be wearing a helmet at all times.

    frosty (f27e97)

  236. Jim Miller (edcec1) — 12/27/2021 @ 2:57 pm

    And what conclusion do you draw from those excess death statistics?

    frosty (f27e97)

  237. 236, I assume you went with this analogy because engaging with actual measured risk and outcomes from Covid didn’t support whatever point you’re trying to make. I could guess at that from context but that usually ends up with you insisting you’re being misunderstood

    It’s a funny one to use though, since we have been encouraging wearing helmets in situations with a likelihood of head trauma (such as Riding bike or skiing) and some people (see mg’s dumb comment) oppose this.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  238. @237, I think it supports the conclusion that Covid has killed a /lot/ of people around the world.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  239. @222

    Several things are pretty clear about the 2020 election at this point
    1. Biden won because a plurality of eligible voters voted for him in enough states to win the EC.
    2. While there were fraudulent ballots cast the evidence so far shows the number to be extremely small relative to the margin of victory.
    3. A frightening large number of people refuse to admit 1&2 are correct and likely never will.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  240. I truly believe 81 million people voted for Biden. A: No shortage of dim bulbs that love Rachel Maddow and her vaccine promises, and B: how else to you explain the McRib popularity?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  241. #237 “And what conclusion do you draw from those excess death statistics?”

    This one: “As of the end of December, we have had, net, approximately 1 million cumulative deaths because of COVID.” (Which was in my comment.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  242. @241, glad you’re finally on board with the election results. I know you’d been waiting for the cyber clowns to finish in AZ.

    Not following your maddow reference though.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  243. Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/27/2021 @ 3:41 pm

    I went with that analogy because it’s roughly the same type of analysis you’re doing. You don’t realized it, or maybe you do, I can’t tell.

    It’s not so much that I’m misunderstood. It’s that you misunderstand and the things you misunderstand aren’t limited to my comments.

    frosty (f27e97)

  244. Man you really have a hard time engaging with facts head on.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  245. This one: “As of the end of December, we have had, net, approximately 1 million cumulative deaths because of COVID.” (Which was in my comment.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1) — 12/27/2021 @ 4:03 pm

    and

    Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/27/2021 @ 3:42 pm

    That isn’t something that you’ve concluded. That’s data provided to you. It might be someone else’s conclusion but it’s not yours.

    Is there some reason you posted it other than as a public service? Is it to support some actual position? Or is the number just supposed to be scary?

    Do you even understand how the fear p r 0 n works or do you just do it blindly? I guess I should be glad that at least we moved to something more subtle than everyone killing grandparents. The skill level is at least improving.

    frosty (f27e97)

  246. Time, you lie.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  247. I’m sorry facts scare you. But if you’re vaccinated you’ll probably be ok. Try to be brave.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  248. #225 True. (For those unfamiliar with the biathlon challenges, here’s a simplified explanation: You alternate skiing fast and hard with target shooting, so you have to go, almost instantly, from all-out physical effort to as close to complete relaxation as you can get, repeatedly.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1) — 12/27/2021 @ 3:07 pm

    This is just weak writing to ad hoc in a shooter in a Bond movie though. I mean seriously.

    Dustin (0ee127)

  249. Justice Roberts Tops Federal Leaders in Americans’ Approval

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way each of the following is handling their job?
    Approve/Disapprove

    U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts 60/34
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell 53/40
    Dr. Anthony Fauci 52/47
    Secretary of State Antony Blinken 49/43
    Attorney General Merrick Garland 49/43
    House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy 46/49
    Vice President Kamala Harris 44/54
    Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer 44/53
    President Joe Biden 43/51
    Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi 40/58
    Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell 34/63

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  250. Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/27/2021 @ 4:30 pm

    Did you mean to type that into your personal journal and got the wrong window?

    Stuff like that happens to everyone. Don’t feel bad.

    frosty (f27e97)

  251. Alex Jones Slams Trump for Supporting Covid-19 Vaccines: Either ‘Ignorant’ or ‘The Most Evil Man Who Has Ever Lived’
    ………
    “This is an emergency Christmas Day warning to President Trump,” Jones said.

    Jones continued:

    You are either completely ignorant about the so-called vaccine gene therapy you helped ram through with Operation Warp Speed, or you are the most evil man who has ever lived to push this toxic poison on the public and to attack your constituents when they simply try to save their lives and the lives of others.

    “What you told Candace Owens is nothing but a raft of dirty lies,” Jones added, referencing a recent interview between Owens and Trump.

    During that interview, which aired last Wednesday, Trump defended the safety of the Covid-19 vaccinations and took credit for their creation.
    ………..
    Ali Alexander, who helped organize the pro-Trump “Stop the Steal” rally on January 6th, wrote on Telegram last week:

    Trump, stop. Just stop. Have your position (backed by Fauci) and allow us to have ours (which is backed by science). This losing is getting boomer level annoying.

    ………
    When you have (temporarily) lost Alex Jones and Ali Alexander……

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  252. Candace Owens Tells Fans to Take Quack Cure That Turns Skin Blue
    ……..
    In an Instagram video posted on Thursday, Owens praised the use of colloidal silver as a daily supplement, a treatment that comes with no valid medical use and plenty of health risks.

    “Yes, colloidal silver!” Owens said in the video. “I take colloidal silver every single day, I love colloidal silver. That is a great one. That is another one that people probably know nothing about.”

    While Owens and others have praised preventative use of colloidal silver as a way to stave off illness, colloidal silver has no valid medical purpose and plenty of potential dangers. In extreme cases, according to the Mayo Clinic, colloidal silver can cause seizure or organ problems.

    Owens didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    But colloidal silver’s most famous side effect is argyria—a condition that turns users’ skin a bluish-gray color, usually permanently. Despite those risks, colloidal silver has sometimes been embraced by political outsiders, including some libertarians seeking treatments for a variety of illnesses outside the medical system. Montana Libertarian politician Stan Jones, for example, turned his skin blue by consuming colloidal silver.
    ……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  253. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvGnw1sHh9M&t=1s

    Elon Musk’s interesting interview with the Babylon Bee.

    Money quote:

    At its heart wokeness is divisive, exclusionary and hateful. It basically gives mean people a reason–it gives them a shield to be mean and cruel, armored in false virtue.”

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  254. There was a young lady from Niger,
    Who smiled as she rode on a tiger.
    They came back from the ride,
    With the lady inside,
    And the smile on the face the tiger.

    The hilarious thing is that those two moonwaffles would support Trump if he shot somebody on Fifth Avenue.

    nk (1d9030)

  255. 247, Is that just a general personal insult or do you have something specific in mind?

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  256. So much for all the crying about the blind MAGA faithfulness.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  257. Something specific, liar.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  258. For those unfamiliar with the biathlon challenges, here’s a simplified explanation: You alternate skiing fast and hard with target shooting, so you have to go, almost instantly, from all-out physical effort to as close to complete relaxation as you can get, repeatedly.

    For the full effect, you need to use a Suomi submachine gun, not some dinky little .22, and have a platoon of Russian soldiers shooting back at you.

    nk (1d9030)

  259. https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2021/12/27/nearly-30-of-new-covid-cases-in-america-came-from-one-city-n1544735

    Since Rip and Jim above was so kind to post Florida’s numbers with some spin, I wonder why they neglected to mention the location that’s once again leading the nation in virus numbers and with draconian lockdowns and horrific, soul crushing regulations that would make a totalitarian nation proud.

    Papers please.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  260. Since Rip and Jim above was so kind to post Florida’s numbers with some spin….

    I didn’t post any “spin”, merely posted a report about the increasing number of COVID-19 cases. But by all means if you have any different numbers from the Florida Dept. of Health please provide a link to them.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  261. The “with or from” Covid line has been parroted by Covid denialist Trumpists for months. The physicians’ death certificates note cause of death and also note underlying conditions.
    My neighbor had pancreatic cancer, an aortic aneurysm and COPD, but it was the Covid that killed her on Insurrection Day. This was so stated on her death certificate, and her Trumpist daughter had no dispute about it. Had she not caught it, she would’ve lived another month or could still have been alive today.

    Paul Montagu (890c5a)

  262. Buduh, thanks for clearing that up. If you’re not going to specify what you think I’m lying about I’m not going to worry about the insult.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  263. Paul, the sad thing is that the excess deaths metric shows that as a completely empty argument. But they don’t care. Because they’re uninterested in what’s actually happening

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  264. Where there’s crime, there’s police. Yes, exactly like that. New Yorkers are assholes and it takes draconian rules to enforce a semblance of normality on them. And a lot of them migrate to Florida for the winter.

    Present company excepted, as always.

    nk (1d9030)

  265. I was not on board with the election results, Liar. I was interested in the audit and I did give grief to idiotic comments during that time period.

    Liar.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  266. Whoops… I was on board with the election results….

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  267. Oh. I’m sorry. I misunderstood. I apologize for misrepresenting your position and retract my assertion that you accept the election results. Entirely my mistake.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  268. Liar

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  269. Nitwit liar, actually. Your comedy was one post late. Haha! I already corrected my error.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  270. Is this some sort of satire?

    Kennedy also exposes Dr. Fauci’s experiments using various toxic AIDS drugs on Black and Hispanic foster children in New York and six other states. Children (many of whom were living at Incarnation Children’s Center in New York City) who refused to take the “medicine” were forced to have tubes inserted into their stomachs to receive the drugs. At least 80 of the children died during and following these experiments, many of them buried in a mass grave in Gate of Heaven Cemetery approximately 25 miles north of New York City.

    According to journalist Celia Farber, as quoted in The Real Anthony Fauci, “I found the mass grave at Gate of Heaven Cemetery in Hawthorne, New York. I couldn’t believe my eyes. It was a very large pit with Astro Turf thrown over it, which you could actually lift up. Under it one could see dozens of plain wooden coffins, haphazardly stacked. There may have been 100 of them. I learned there was more than one child’s body in each. Around the pit was a semi-circle of several large tombstones on which upward of one thousand children’s names had been engraved. I wrote down every name. I’m still wondering who the rest of those kids were. As far as I know, nobody has ever asked Dr. Fauci that haunting question.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chd-robert-f-kennedy-jr-163100668.html

    Holy cow if true.

    I will wait for more information.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  271. Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/27/2021 @ 5:24 pm

    That report that Jim linked, if you read it, says something different than you describe. It doesn’t show it as a completely empty argument. I won’t say you don’t care, that’s one of the troll mind reading tricks you like. I’ll say you seem unable to tell the difference.

    frosty (f27e97)

  272. Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/27/2021 @ 5:30 pm

    Well, if any of that were true you wouldn’t do it so often. Recently you seem to have trouble making it through a thread without “misstating” or “misquoting” what someone said.

    frosty (f27e97)

  273. Frosty, you don’t think the study shows Covid killed a lot of people? Because that’s what I said it supported.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  274. This is what I get for bothering to read BudUhs comments.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  275. BuDuh (4a7846) — 12/27/2021 @ 5:41 pm

    Fauci is not a good person. He has been, and will continue to be, devoutly defended.

    frosty (f27e97)

  276. It is apparent that no matter which comments you choose to read, you screw up everything.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  277. Republicans view Reagan, Trump as best recent presidents
    ……..
    About four-in-ten Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (42%) say Reagan has done the best job as president over the past 40 years, while slightly fewer (37%) say Trump has done the best job.

    Around six-in-ten Democrats and Democratic leaners (59%) say Obama has done the best job as president of any president of the past 40 years. Far fewer name Bill Clinton (19%) or Joe Biden (5%), who will complete his first year in office next month.
    ……..
    ……..Among U.S. adults overall, 35% say Obama has done the best job over this period, followed by Reagan (23%), Trump (17%) and Clinton (12%). Relatively small shares among both the general public and among Republicans name either George W. Bush or George H.W. Bush, according to the survey, conducted in September on Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  278. I will wait for more information.

    Like actual evidence?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  279. What are you talking about, Rip?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  280. Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/27/2021 @ 5:48 pm

    And I said it wasn’t your conclusion. Did you read the study? Or just glance at it to see if you could fit it into an existing bias?

    Do you understand the distinction between deaths as a result of the pandemic and deaths from covid? This is sort of like, but different from, cases and infections. One is a subset of the other in both cases.

    But I don’t think you do and I predict you won’t even try.

    frosty (f27e97)

  281. What’s your point Frosty?

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  282. HIV-encephalopathy explains Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. generally, so it would more than explain his hatred of Fauci.

    nk (1d9030)

  283. This was probably the transmission event (fast forward to about 2:15 to 2:45):
    https://youtu.be/bBBu2RK9OMs

    urbanleftbehind (c073c9)

  284. Heh! Here’s one back at you. From Dave Barry:

    Exit polls show that the deciding issue, especially among independent voters, was the fact that the letters in “Glenn Youngkin” can be rearranged to spell “Nun Lying On Keg,” whereas “Terry McAuliffe” gives you “A Firefly Rectum”.

    nk (1d9030)

  285. I truly believe 81 million people voted for Biden.

    LOL

    “Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you’ll know tomorrow.” -‘Kay’ [Tommy Lee Jones] ‘Men in Black’ 1997

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  286. Omicron is omnipresent. It shouldn’t even be a story anymore.

    Witness all the athletes who were vaccinated, and who are now testing positive, causing the cancellation of so many games.

    The unvaccinated who have no immunity are locked into their thinking, so cajoling them is futile.

    From now on, I suggest we treat Covid stories much the same as articles about British royalty or the Kardashians–skipping them for the waste of time that they are.

    If hospitals get too crowded, the unvaccinated should be lowest priority for a hospital bed. “Oh, but that’s just so mean!”

    Welcome to the adult world, where people have to face the consequences of bad decisions.

    People who take precautions, and still get sick (albeit at a much lower rate than the unvaccinated), should get priority over those who engaged in more risky behavior.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  287. What other poor decisions get a Gold Star? Eating to much fast food? Parachuting? What is the complete death panel list?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  288. BuDuh,

    It’s easier to roll up one’s sleeve than change one’s lifestyle.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  289. Because you demand it.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  290. It is not easy to decide to not jump out of a plane.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  291. It is not easy to decide to not drive a motorcycle.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  292. New Zealand authorities on Monday said they had linked a 26-year-old man’s death to Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine after the person suffered myocarditis, a rare inflammation of the heart muscle, after taking his first dose.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/20/nz-mans-death-may-be-linked-to-myocarditis-from-pfizers-covid-vaccine.html

    Now this one is a tough call. This guy rolled up his sleeve, but not enough times to be fully vaccinated. Had he not died he probably should have been triaged to the middle of the ER line. Certainly not the front.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  293. @295 An exception to the rule

    norcal (3d2db9)

  294. Can people with allergies get the COVID-19 vaccine? Yes, in most cases with 2 exceptions:

    People with a severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis) to any component of either an mRNA vaccine or the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine should NOT receive that vaccine. Many people will be safely able to receive an alternate vaccine. An allergic reaction is considered severe when it is classified by a healthcare provider as an anaphylactic reaction or a person needs to be treated with epinephrine or EpiPen© or if the person must go to the hospital.
    If You Are Allergic to Polyethylene Glycol (PEG) or Polysorbate

    PEG and polysorbate are closely related to each other. PEG is an ingredient in the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna), and polysorbate is an ingredient in the Johnson & Johnson (J&J)/Janssen vaccine. If you are allergic to PEG, you should not get an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Ask your doctor if you can get the J&J/Janssen vaccine.
    If you are allergic to polysorbate, you should not get the J&J/Janssen COVID-19 vaccine. Ask your doctor if you can get an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine.
    2. People with a severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis) to any vaccine or injectable (intramuscular or intravenous) medication should consult with their health provider to assess risk prior to receiving the COVID-19 vaccine

    https://yalehealth.yale.edu/yale-covid-19-vaccine-program/information-special-populations-and-covid-19-vaccine

    This could be a sizable group of jerks that clog your Death Panel ERs. They need to be curb stomped if they get in your way in the waiting room.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  295. It goes without saying that people for whom vaccination is contraindicated shouldn’t get it, and shouldn’t be punished for not getting it.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  296. There has to be a contradiction formula that pairs up with a 99% survival rate. But… “back of the line!”

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  297. Preferred use of resources:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yV3YUHGrxJ4

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  298. Please post the numbers.

    Why, so you can pick among your many reasons for not accepting them?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  299. This is very true. Everyone has a likelihood of being exposed to head trauma.

    But some activities more than others. Which is, of course, the same point you have been missing for about a year now. I chalk that up to obstinacy rather than the other thing.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  300. Bottom line; Because of Covid a LOT more people have died then otherwise would have.

    I have a question for the vaccine-deniers: Do you think that a person with diabetes, who dies while suffering Covid-related interstitial pneumonia, died from diabetes?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  301. So… no numbers then?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  302. New Zealand authorities on Monday said they had linked a 26-year-old man’s death to Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine after the person suffered myocarditis

    I understand that this is filtered through a reporter who doesn’t actually know what myocarditis (and possibly the heart) is, but what is the linkage? That it happened after?

    Wikipedia:

    Myocarditis is most often due to a viral infection. Other causes include bacterial infections, certain medications, toxins and autoimmune disorders

    What mechanism is involved? Allergy? A history of autoimmune disorders? I’m going to outright claim that viral or bacterial infection would not be related to the Pfizer vaccine.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  303. Probably died with diabetes. I wonder if they double count that like the “with Covid” hysteria?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  304. Montana Libertarian politician Stan Jones, for example, turned his skin blue by consuming colloidal silver.

    I swear the Darwin Prize committee this year is going to have some hard choices.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  305. “New Zealand authorities” must be synonymous with “reporter.”

    This is useless.

    Goodnight.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  306. About four-in-ten Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (42%) say Reagan has done the best job as president over the past 40 years, while slightly fewer (37%) say Trump has done the best job.

    Right about Reagan. No president should be eligible for this kind of question until they’ve been out of office for 20 years.

    In order, during my aware lifetime (Ike would be 2nd otherwise):

    Reagan
    Clinton
    JFK
    GHWB
    Nixon
    Ford
    Carter
    LBJ
    (W, Obama, Trump not yet eligible)

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  307. We still benefit (or suffer, if that’s your call) from Reagan’s effect on the world. Trump’s legacy is gone with the wind, and that started while he was still in office.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  308. Maybe this will help you out, Kevin:

    Here is the unavailable vaccine’s FDA approval:
    https://www.fda.gov/media/151710/download

    Use control-f and see if Myocarditis pops up.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  309. BTW, I no longer advocate that vaccine-deniers get vaccinated.

    “If they would rather die, they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  310. So… no numbers then?

    WHAT numbers? I said:

    Fun fact: modern medicine keeps people alive with all kinds of ailments. People who would continue to live had they not contracted Covid are indeed “killed by Covid.”

    You want to assign numbers to that non-numerical statement, go right ahead, but I won’t play your troll game.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  311. @311:

    All they are saying is that they want someone to look and see if there’s a link, not that they think there is one. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  312. Probably died with diabetes. I wonder if they double count that like the “with Covid” hysteria?

    I’m not really sure, there is so much to check, but this may be the stupidest thing you’ve ever posted here. At the very least it shows how poorly your brain works.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  313. If Trump shot a diabetes sufferer on 5th Avenue, BuDuh would say that they died due to the diabetes.

    Incidentally proving Trump right.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  314. Biden is a fool and a puppet, but that in itself does not mean Trump was the better choice of the two. These two parties are bankrupt. If this is the kind of choice our two parties providem we need some new parties.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  315. Kevin,
    The least bad choice can still be pretty bad. As Biden continues to make clear.

    Time123 (3dcc7e)

  316. Candace Owens: Trump supports vaccines because he’s old and not online enough

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/27/2021 @ 6:04 pm

    I know some in the MAGA sphere are too committed to their conspiracy theories to change their mind but Trump’s change from discouraging the Covid vaccine to encouraging it will have an impact. He’s always been very good at marketing and I hope he’s able to change a large number of minds. Political ideology shouldn’t be as predictive of medical outcomes as it currently is. There are tens of millions of US citizens that are unvaccinated and at much higher likelihood of severe outcomes, including hospitalization and death.

    Adding to the problem is the increasing calls to use vaccination status as a criteria for prioritizing medical care. There are also long term effects if opposition to vaccines generally becomes a consistently welcome POV among the right.

    Time123 (3dcc7e)

  317. Montana Libertarian politician Stan Jones, for example, turned his skin blue by consuming colloidal silver.

    Yeah, right!

    nk (1d9030)

  318. @223, RIp, the CDC has been extremely cautious on it’s guidance so far and i assume this follows the same cautious pattern. But the details behind it haven’t been explained very well. Have you seen any more details on what’s driven the change?

    Time123 (3dcc7e)

  319. This is very true. Everyone has a likelihood of being exposed to head trauma.

    But some activities more than others. Which is, of course, the same point you have been missing for about a year now. I chalk that up to obstinacy rather than the other thing.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 12:17 am

    He’s not missing the point. He’s attempting to avoid it though the analogy. If pushed on the point he’ll usually ask related questions of limited relevance while pretending they’re central. If you refuse to move off the point he’ll often gets angry, claims he’s already answered it, and start lobbing insults. If you address the point he appears to be making he typically accuses you of misrepresenting his position.

    At no point will he say anything remotely like “I think XYZ is true because of these facts you can see at this link.”

    Time123 (3dcc7e)

  320. It’s a two-part dilemma, Time123. There are a lot of people making money off of the pandemic but they’re making it off of the productive who need to continue being productive despite the pandemic. So the parasites need to keep the rice cooking at a steady simmer, without burning it or putting out the fire.

    nk (1d9030)

  321. Kevin M & FWO your comments on New Mexico made me want to look up the home price index. Albaquerqu has had a lot of volatility and is currently up 6%. In general it leads the national average, you can edit the graph to add a line to see both. The scary thing is that as a % increase we’re running above where we were before the housing crash.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MIXRNSA

    Time123 (3dcc7e)

  322. You got pretty nasty after I posted the FDA link, Kevin. Me thinks you actually read it and then reread your 12:29.

    Table pounding was all you had, since discussion was an impossibility for you.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  323. Stop insulting us with phony social distancing theatre!

    The purveyors of panic porn are doubling down on theatrical displays of “social distancing.” Now that the highly contagious but relatively mild omicron variant of COVID is rapidly spreading — and possibly conferring immunity on those who catch it — we are once again being presented with the public figures pretending to keep several feet away from each other. I use the word “pretending” because when they think the cameras are no longer rolling, they forget about the social distancing.

    One such blatant case was illustrated yesterday by Erin Andrews interviewing Aaron Rodgers, standing almost at shouting distance,

    But when they thought the cameras were turned off, they hugged

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/12/stop_insulting_us_with_phony_social_distancing_theatre.html

    The 81 Million love panic theatre.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  324. This is very true. Everyone has a likelihood of being exposed to head trauma.

    But some activities more than others. Which is, of course, the same point you have been missing for about a year now. I chalk that up to obstinacy rather than the other thing.
    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 12:17 am

    You’re still thinking every single person has the same chance of dying from covid and I’m the one saying that there are differences. But somehow in your mind you’re also the one who can recognize that some activities are more exposed to head trauma than others and I’m the one missing the point. And I’m the obstinate one?

    Bottom line; Because of Covid a LOT more people have died then otherwise would have.

    I have a question for the vaccine-deniers: Do you think that a person with diabetes, who dies while suffering Covid-related interstitial pneumonia, died from diabetes?
    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 12:20 am

    Who exactly do you think those people are here? Do you think all of those excess deaths from the pandemic are uncounted covid cases?

    frosty (f27e97)

  325. Oh, won’t somebody please think of Tucker Carlson?

    nk (1d9030)

  326. @322 Trump’s change from discouraging the Covid vaccine to encouraging it

    is there a quota of lies you’re trying to meet by year end?

    JF (e1156d)

  327. Time123 (3dcc7e) — 12/28/2021 @ 5:47 am

    I really don’t have a problem with you being a troll. It can be interesting. But you’re just not that good at it. The attempted gaslighting and intentional “misquoting” is not subtle. To make it more effective you need to not make so many simple mistakes like confusing terms that you can google and not being able to work with basic stats.

    Granted, taking stats from one population and applying them to a different one or not understanding that you’d need to make adjustments for different categories is a tiny bit more complex. It’s probably unfair of me to expect it from you.

    That nk is one of the people offering you moral support should tell you something.

    frosty (f27e97)

  328. So you don’t have a point. I didn’t think so.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  329. You’re the troll, frosty. And nothing else but. And if you did not have Time123 to feed you and prop you, you’d only be talking to yourself here. Why he does it, I can only figure that he belongs to a church which lays a heavy penance on confessions.

    nk (1d9030)

  330. NK, He used to have interesting things to say. I took a shot at a recent thread to try and get him to look at how sparse the data to support his position was. It didn’t work. Now he’s just lobbing insults based on things I haven’t said.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  331. What mechanism is involved? Allergy? A history of autoimmune disorders? I’m going to outright claim that viral or bacterial infection would not be related to the Pfizer vaccine.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 12:29 am

    Do you really not know that myocarditis is a risk factor for the mRNA vaccines? How are you not aware of that? You took the time to look it up on wikipedia but somehow didn’t find any other information? You’ve complained about other people dodging issues and the first thing you do here is dodge?

    If you just google myocarditis you’ll get a variety of links. One is to the CDC.

    Phrased in a way 321Troll might understand:

    Myocarditis is a risk factor for the mRNA vaccine and for COVID. I posted a link with facts you can review for yourself.

    frosty (f27e97)

  332. Frosty; Myocarditis is also a risk factor from a number of sources. The point Kevin clearly made in his comment was that we don’t yet know if this specific case was likely caused by the vaccine or another mechanism. As usual you’re arguing against a point kevin didn’t make.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  333. But it is a nice change for you to clearly state your point and support it.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  334. @338 Myocarditis can be caused by other things, not just a reaction to mRNA…

    Just as death during the pandemic could be caused by other things, not just because of covid…

    When talking about diseases, particularly when folks can have a myriad of other co-morbidity, we have to estrapulate as best as we can with the actual causes. SO, unless we have access to the coroner report who has done a good faith investigation on every single cases, playing with these numbers need to be heavily caveated.

    whembly (eafcf2)

  335. JF (e1156d) — 12/28/2021 @ 6:48 am

    It’s not so much a quota as it is a record. And if time wants to be at the top he’s got some stiff competition. It’s best to pack in as many as possible.

    I think next year he’s going to add number per comment as a goal and that might be interesting.

    It’s really the only good troll trick time has. The whole point is to bait people into arguing the lie.

    frosty (f27e97)

  336. Peter Wehner on Donald Trump, Junior’s “Gospel”.

    Summary paragraph:

    Throughout his speech, Don Jr. painted a scenario in which Trump supporters—Americans living in red America—are under relentless attack from a wicked and brutal enemy. He portrayed it as an existential battle between good and evil. One side must prevail; the other must be crushed. This in turn justifies any necessary means to win. And the former president’s son has a message for the tens of millions of evangelicals who form the energized base of the GOP: the scriptures are essentially a manual for suckers. The teachings of Jesus have “gotten us nothing.” It’s worse than that, really; the ethic of Jesus has gotten in the way of successfully prosecuting the culture wars against the left. If the ethic of Jesus encourages sensibilities that might cause people in politics to act a little less brutally, a bit more civilly, with a touch more grace? Then it needs to go.

    If Trump Senior disagrees with this “gospel”, it is not evident in what he says or does.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  337. You didn’t read the article just like Kevin, Time.

    I am not surprised.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  338. I should have added in my previous comment that I think the vaccine is the likely cause of the myocarditis in this case. That could change with additional information but seems reasonable with what we know now. While extremely safe, the complications aren’t zero.

    Time123 (97645e)

  339. I see that I cross posted with a few ppl.

    Time123 (97645e)

  340. Whembly, your comment in 340 is really good and I should have included that in my previous comment and not focused just on how frosty was misunderstanding Kevin’s comment. I likely gave the impression that I didn’t think the case was related to the vaccine when that wasn’t my intention.

    Time123 (97645e)

  341. You give all kinds of impressions, Time.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  342. Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/28/2021 @ 7:23 am

    from the article

    New Zealand authorities on Monday said they had linked a 26-year-old man’s death to Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine after the person suffered myocarditis

    and

    The death is New Zealand’s second linked to a known but rare side effect from the vaccine after health authorities in August reported a woman had died after taking her doses.

    “With the current available information, the board has considered that the myocarditis was probably due to vaccination in this individual,” a Covid-19 Vaccine Independent Safety Monitoring Board said in a statement.

    from Kevin M’s comment

    I’m going to outright claim that viral or bacterial infection would not be related to the Pfizer vaccine.

    This isn’t a claim about this case. This is a blanket claim. Kevin M’s claim is that the myocarditis would not be related to the vaccine at all. This is not a correct statement.

    Here’s what we actually know:

    1) Myocarditis is a side effect from the vaccine
    2) This Independent Safety Monitoring Board reviewed the facts and made a conclusion

    Here’s what you believe:

    we don’t yet know if this specific case was likely caused by the vaccine

    Your statement is completely ridiculous. What you are claiming is that even though this board saw the evidence and you didn’t that they’re wrong and you’re right.

    This one isn’t even in a gray area. This is what cognitive bias does to your critical thinking skills. You are so desperate to hold on to your beliefs that you can’t acknowledge basic facts.

    frosty (f27e97)

  343. Holy cow if true.
    I will wait for more information.

    There’s no reason to wait, but there is good reason for BuDuh to vet his sources because his link is so easily checkable.
    The article was written by anti-vaxxer RFK Jr. or one of his dog’s bodies at Children’s Health Defense, and he used Celia Farber as a source, an AIDS denialist crackpot. To be clear, this isn’t a defense of Fauci, it’s a criticism of BuDuh for introducing crap links into a comment thread, like’s he done too frequently in the past.

    Paul Montagu (890c5a)

  344. Frosty, I assume you missed my previous comment 344.

    I’m going to bold the part of Kevin’s comment that you’re missing

    from Kevin M’s comment

    I’m going to outright claim that viral or bacterial infection would not be related to the Pfizer vaccine.

    This isn’t a claim about this case. This is a blanket claim. Kevin M’s claim is that the myocarditis would not be related to the vaccine at all. This is not a correct statement.

    Kevin can speak for himself but it seems clear he’s saying that if this death was caused by an infection we shouldn’t blame that on the vaccine.

    But, as I said earlier, I think the vaccine is the likely cause.

    Time123 (97645e)

  345. Kevin started by saying:

    I understand that this is filtered through a reporter who doesn’t actually know what myocarditis (and possibly the heart) is, but what is the linkage? That it happened after?

    His Dr Wikipedia diagnoses was directly related to the case in the article. He dismissed the content of the article, that included a statement from NZ officials, because reporters don’t know what a heart is.

    Goofy.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  346. nk: “You’re the troll, frosty. And nothing else but. And if you did not have Time123 to feed you and prop you, you’d only be talking to yourself here.”

    Time123 needs a new church. It’s getting tough wading through all of the bad-faith tediousness. I don’t watch reality TV….and have even less patience with manufactured internet drama.

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  347. Peter Navarro says, elaborating on his book, that he and Steve Bannon (and Trump presumably) had a plan for January 6. They wanted to get 24 hours of television coverage, and hoped that would move Mike Pence (except that – they would only have the debate – Navarro calls it hearings (?!) – if Pence accepted the Electoral votes. It couldn’t work – no matter what Trump did, he was checkmated, but they were trying just in case.)

    He says the House committee isn’t interested in talking to him, because he would exonerate Trump. Maybe there are some subtler reasons.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-advisor-peter-navarro-lays-out-how-he-and-steve-bannon-planned-to-overturn-bidens-electoral-win

    “We spent a lot of time lining up over 100 congressmen, including some senators. It started out perfectly. At 1 p.m., Gosar and Cruz did exactly what was expected of them,” Navarro told The Daily Beast. “It was a perfect plan. And it all predicated on peace and calm on Capitol Hill. We didn’t even need any protesters, because we had over 100 congressmen committed to it.”..[typo of “protestors” corrected]

    …This last-minute maneuvering never had any chance of actually decertifying the election results on its own, a point that Navarro quickly acknowledges. But their hope was to run the clock as long as possible to increase public pressure on then-Vice President Mike Pence to send the electoral votes back to six contested states, where Republican-led legislatures could try to overturn the results. [there actually weren’t the votes for it, no matter what Giuliani was saying, or some people were telling Giuliani, and a majority of Congress would never accept revised Electoral votes cast past the deadline, by electors selected past the deadline, anyway – SF]

    And in their mind, ramping up pressure on Pence would require media coverage. While most respected news organizations refused to regurgitate unproven conspiracy theories about widespread election fraud, this plan hoped to force journalists to cover the allegations by creating a historic delay to the certification process….

    ….“The Green Bay Sweep was very well thought out. It was designed to get us 24 hours of televised hearings,” he said. “But we thought that we could bypass the corporate media by getting this stuff televised.”

    Navarro’s part in this ploy was to provide the raw materials, he said in an interview on Thursday. That came in the form of a three-part White House report he put together during his final weeks in the Trump administration with volume titles like, “The Immaculate Deception” and “The Art of the Steal.”

    …“Steve Bannon’s role was to figure out how to use this information—what he called ‘receipts’—to overturn the election result. That’s how Steve had come up with the Green Bay Sweep idea,” he wrote.

    “The political and legal beauty of the strategy was this: by law, both the House of Representatives and the Senate must spend up to two hours of debate per state on each requested challenge. For the six battleground states, that would add up to as much as twenty-four hours of nationally televised hearings across the two chambers of Congress.” [The House and the Senate debated simultaneously. another wrong calculation, except that it would stretch out longer than the two hours of speaking time assigned to each debate – SF]

    …Later that day, Bannon made several references to the football-themed strategy on his daily podcast, War Room Pandemic.

    “We are right on the cusp of victory,” Bannon said on the show. “It’s quite simple. Play’s been called. Mike Pence, run the play. Take the football. Take the handoff from the quarterback. You’ve got guards in front of you. You’ve got big, strong people in front of you. Just do your duty.”

    This idea was weeks in the making. Although Navarro told The Daily Beast he doesn’t remember when “Brother Bannon” came up with the plan, he said it started taking shape as Trump’s “Stop the Steal” legal challenges to election results in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin fizzled out.

    Courts wouldn’t side with Trump, thanks to what Navarro describes in his book as “the highly counterproductive antics” of Sydney Powell and her Kraken lawsuits. So instead, they came up with a never-before-seen scheme through the legislative branch.

    Navarro starts off his book’s chapter about the strategy by mentioning how “Stephen K. Bannon, myself, and President Donald John Trump” were “the last three people on God’s good Earth who want to see violence erupt on Capitol Hill,” as it would disrupt their plans….

    …Although the bipartisan House committee investigating the violence on Jan. 6 has demanded testimony and records from dozens of Trump allies and rally organizers believed to be involved in the attack on the nation’s democracy, Navarro said he hasn’t heard from them yet. The committee did not respond to our questions about whether it intends to dig into Navarro’s activities.

    And while he has text messages, phone calls, and memos that could show how closely an active White House official was involved in the effort to keep Trump in power, he says investigators won’t find anything that shows the Green Bay Sweep plan involved violence. Instead, Navarro said, the investigative committee would find that the mob’s attack on the U.S. Capitol building actually foiled their plans, because it incentivized Pence and other Republicans to follow through with certification.

    [They were going to do that anyway, regardless of what Navarro or Trump thought (because Pence pretended to be undecided until the last possible moment) but the violence threatened to upend their plans entirely. During the riot, Trump was trying to prevent Republicans from dropping their plans to object – he also deflected complaints about the riot. In the end only two objections, Arizna – which had already been made – plus Pennsylvania, were made, and the whole thing was finished sooner than it would have been had there been no disturbance -SF]

    “They don’t want any part of me. I exonerate Trump and Bannon,” he said.

    The committee is, however, engaged in a bitter battle with Bannon. The former Trump White House chief strategist refused to show up for a deposition or turn over documents, and he’s now being prosecuted by the Justice Department for criminal contempt of Congress.

    Navarro said he’s still surprised that people at the Trump rally turned violent, given the impression he got when he went to see them in person during an exercise run that morning.

    “I’m telling you man, it was just so peaceful. I saw no anger. None. Zero,” he said.

    Bannon didn’t see the same people who went into the Capitol Building.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  348. https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2021/12/27/sanity-prevails-overwhelming-majority-of-people-believe-there-are-only-two-genders-n1544776

    Going to take a little bit longer to get people to pretend the Emperor is wearing clothes. Maybe they can get a leftist court to rule on it.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  349. They could be avoiding Navarro because they knew he had nothing to do with riot. But Navarro’s point is that the riot upended Trump’s plan. (not that it was a good one anyway)

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  350. I know… messenger and all that…

    Between Dec. 13 and Dec. 20, Denmark reported approximately 50,000 confirmed Omicron cases.

    Given the approximately one-week lag between infection and hospitalization, those people should be flooding into hospitals.

    EXCEPT THE NUMBER OF OMICRON PATIENTS IN DANISH HOSPITALS HAS NOT RISEN IN THE LAST WEEK.

    You read that right. 50,000 positive tests the week before, no change in hospitalizations. Admissions have risen slightly, but patients are being discharged as fast as they are being admitted.

    The result: as of Dec. 21, Danish hospitals had 47 Omicron patients, with under five (the report is not more specific) in intensive care.

    As of Dec. 27, the hospitals had 51 Omicron patients, again with under five in intensive care.

    The question is no longer whether Omicron is a cold. It’s whether it’s as dangerous as a cold. (And, again, this has nothing to do with Covid vaccines; most South Africans are not vaccinated, and the pattern there was the same.)

    The only sane political move at this point is to drop ALL mandates – vaccine and otherwise – and ALL asymptomatic or quarantine testing (dropping all non-hospital testing would be even better) – and declare victory and go home. Even if the country weren’t burned out on scare stories and sick of being lied to, the reality of these figures is already obvious to most people. (Including LeBron James.)

    When your media water-carriers have to write articles explaining the difference between Covid and a cold… it’s over.

    So why won’t Uncle Joe just say so? Because the current strategy isn’t working – not politically, and not for the country. It’s time to surrender to the ro like you did to the Taliban and to inflation. At least this time admitting the problem will fix it.

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/can-someone-help-me-understand-the

    Maybe the numbers guys amongst the 81 Million here will prove this incorrect.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  351. There’s a study in JAMA on excess deaths in 2020, and they found a 22.9% increase or 522,368 excess deaths. Out of that, 72.4% were directly attributed to Covid, or around 378k. The reported number of Covid deaths was 373k, so it tracks pretty close.
    Another thing, a 22.9% increase in deaths is significant because the typical increase is around 2.5%.

    Paul Montagu (890c5a)

  352. AJ, that’s good feedback. If it’s discouraging you, and commenters like you, from posting more I need to engage less with people arguing in bad faith. I’ll make this an early New Years resolution

    Time123 (97645e)

  353. I appreciate it, Time.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  354. we don’t yet know if this specific case was likely caused by the vaccine

    Of course not. They never draw conclusions from n=1 cases. The claim myocarditis being related comes from statistics.

    Is it something to worry about? Not really. And judging by who is affected, it seems to be caused by a too strong and mistargeted response to the vaccine by the immune system. This can also be caused by infections.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  355. Myocarditis sufferers, due to the vaccine, should move to the front of the ER line. Myocarditis Sufferers, due to the virus, should ponder their life choices from outside the hospital doors.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  356. nk (1d9030) — 12/28/2021 @ 7:10 am

    Are you familiar with the concept of projection? Feeling alone and like no one notices your comments? Don’t worry, time thinks you’ll forget @336 in an hour or so and pretend to be on your side if there’s trolling to be had.

    frosty (f27e97)

  357. The question is no longer whether Omicron is a cold. It’s whether it’s as dangerous as a cold

    And whether some colds are more dangerous than people usually think. They’ll get to that.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  358. Biden’s Praetorian Guard? The Ashley Biden Investigation Raises New Questions Over the Use of the FBI

    https://jonathanturley.org/2021/12/23/bidens-praetorian-guard-the-ashley-biden-investigation-raises-new-questions-over-the-use-of-the-fbi/

    81 Million embrace this.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  359. t what is the linkage? That it happened after?

    That’s a good reason, combined with its rarity.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  360. Trumpp discouraged masks and lockdowns and supported protests in 2020.

    The anti-vaxxers supported him, but not really the other way around, although he has come out against mandatory vaccination.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  361. Sammy Finkelman (c49738) — 12/28/2021 @ 8:15 am

    The death is New Zealand’s second linked to a known but rare side effect from the vaccine after health authorities in August reported a woman had died after taking her doses.

    We’re not at n=1 in general either. There are sufficient stats for the CDC to acknowledge it.

    You are right to focus on whether it’s a big deal though. If only more people followed your example and tried to exercise even basic critical thinking the world would be a different place.

    frosty (f27e97)

  362. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 3:25 am

    These two parties are bankrupt. If this is the kind of choice our two parties providem we need some new parties.

    They’re very entrenched, and tend to be run from the top because the parties (and other candidates) can donate more money to a campaign than individuals.

    We need a reform that unentrenches them. Like campaign finance un-reform.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  363. Kevin can speak for himself but it seems clear he’s saying that if this death was caused by an infection we shouldn’t blame that on the vaccine.

    But, as I said earlier, I think the vaccine is the likely cause.
    Time123 (97645e) — 12/28/2021 @ 7:59 am

    Well, the first rule of holes is to stop digging. You’re half way there. I appreciate you being the Kevin whisperer but you’ve got to insert words into his comment to get your interpretation. The “kevin can speak for himself” before you speak for him gives away your lack of confidence.

    At least you left in the “I’m going to outright claim” part. I await kevin’s attempt to explain how, after trying to discredit the reporter and questioning the link between the vaccine and myocarditis in general and not reading the article where a panel with the task of making an official statement acknowledged a linkage, his outright claim about myocarditis was actually a claim about this specific case.

    frosty (f27e97)

  364. @366, Sammy below is a typical statement from Trump regarding the vaccine.

    People are refusing to take the Vaccine because they don’t trust his Administration, they don’t trust the Election results, and they certainly don’t trust the Fake News, which is refusing to tell the Truth.”

    He puts taking the vaccine in the same bucket as other big tribal signifiers. It’s not the most anti-vax message out there, but it’s much much worse the his current statements. As I said before I hope his new messaging takes hold and erases the left / right vaccine gap.

    Time123 (97645e)

  365. “Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat ,I think that movie script got things backward.

    Educated people knew the earth was round even earlier than fifteen hundred years ago. It was first proven around 2,300 years ago. But they thought that the Earth was the center of the universe till about five hundred years ago.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  366. 370. Trump was claiming that because people did not believe something (that was in fact the truth but Trump said otherwise) they also didn’t believe something that was true.

    He was trying to use vaccine skepticism to support his lies about the election. (i.e. they didn’t believe Biden about the vaccine because they didn’t believe him about the election, but if people acknowledged that the election was stolen, which he claimed was obvious, then they would believe (or would have believed) the vaccine was good.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  367. I am hearing of a lot more positive cases, more than in the spring of 2020. But maybe then we were isolating more from each other, and there were almost no test results.

    At least one person even got sick (Last week, early in the week. He’ll be all right by Saturday.)

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  368. AJ, that’s good feedback. If it’s discouraging you, and commenters like you, from posting more I need to engage less with people arguing in bad faith. I’ll make this an early New Years resolution

    Time123 (97645e) — 12/28/2021 @ 8:13 am

    I think AJ would like to agree with you more but you make it difficult by doing such a poor job.

    A good analogy would be if AJ were a hitchhiker walking through the desert with no food or water, buzzards flying overhead, the sun setting, and coyotes trailing behind when time pulls up and offers a ride. AJ reviews the situation and decides his chances are better walking or waiting for the next car.

    frosty (f27e97)

  369. @223, RIp, the CDC has been extremely cautious on it’s guidance so far and i assume this follows the same cautious pattern. But the details behind it haven’t been explained very well. Have you seen any more details on what’s driven the change?

    Time123 (3dcc7e) — 12/28/2021 @ 5:30 am

    CDC Updates and Shortens Recommended Isolation and Quarantine Period for General Population

    Nothing more than their media statement.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  370. Time123 (3dcc7e) — 12/28/2021 @ 5:30 am

    @223, RIp, the CDC has been extremely cautious on it’s guidance so far and i assume this follows the same cautious pattern. But the details behind it haven’t been explained very well. Have you seen any more details on what’s driven the change?

    Oh, it;s easy to understand, hey knew 14 days (it went down to 10 days) was too long long ago.

    They changed it now because he virus was spreading more and with the old system hospitals would have staffing problems. Besides other countries were reducing the quarantine period also.

    They didn’t want more strenuous complaints. And they didn’t want to be ignored.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  371. https://thenationalpulse.com/2021/12/27/oracle-supercomputer-supported-lab-leak/

    “Notably, SARS-CoV-2 spike protein had the highest overall binding energy for human ACE2, greater than all the other tested species including bat, the postulated source of the virus. This indicates that SARS-CoV-2 is a highly adapted human pathogen,” noted the paper.

    “This finding is particularly surprising as, typically, a virus, would be expected to have highest affinity for the receptor in its original host species, e.g. bat, with a lower initial binding affinity for the receptor of any new host, e.g. humans,” it continued.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  372. ‘Mr. Brexit’ Donald Trump’s Scotland Golf Resorts Crushed—by Brexit
    ………. According to a financial disclosure filed with Scottish authorities and signed by Eric Trump, Brexit “impacted our business as supply chains have been impacted by availability of drivers and staff, reducing deliveries and availability of certain product lines.”

    Turnberry has since seen higher prices, which have “increased from additional freight and import duty charges,” the filing states. “Staff availability has been a challenge from a combination of wage inflation with retail and logistics sectors increasing wages to attract staff due to increased business levels,” it says. And, it explains, “[T]he staffing pool has been reduced with lack of access to European staff for businesses in general resulting in greater demand for individuals previously available to the resort.”

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  373. @370 every nevertrump accusation is a confession

    JF (e1156d)

  374. General rule — if a discussion has turned into whether a person is a troll, that conversation has become unproductive and must be terminated.

    Appalled (1a17de)

  375. The Situation Room
    @CNNSitRoom
    “The reason is that with the sheer volume of new cases that we are having and that we expect to continue with Omicron, one of the things we want to be careful of is that we don’t have so many people out,” Dr. Anthony Fauci explains why CDC changed Covid isolation guidelines.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/CNNSitRoom/status/1475614249766559748

    Deadliest virus ever has its limits.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  376. although he has come out against mandatory vaccination.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738) — 12/28/2021 @ 8:27 am

    This is the crux of the issue. The pro-mandate crowd is working very hard to define everything not pro-mandate as anti-vax. This is why we’re seeing the almost constant conflation of different statements.

    frosty (f27e97)

  377. I am hearing of a lot more positive cases, more than in the spring of 2020. But maybe then we were isolating more from each other, and there were almost no test results.

    At least one person even got sick (Last week, early in the week. He’ll be all right by Saturday.)

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738) — 12/28/2021 @ 9:02 am

    I know at least a dozen people out right now with positive cases or regular symptoms. Getting a test right now is near impossible due to the backlog. All but 2 were vaccinated beforehand.

    Best vaccine ever.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  378. I thank you for that defense, Appalled.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  379. @380-

    Appalled’s Corollary to Godwin’s Law

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  380. @378 “But, in true Trumpian fashion, Brexit wasn’t great for Trump personally.”

    lol

    cuz to line one’s own pockets via public policy requires the competency of a bush, clinton, obama or biden

    can anyone figure nevertrump out?

    JF (e1156d)

  381. R=The vaccine is against an earlier variant of the virus, and even though both mRNA companies have prepared more targeted vaccines (and there are as well monoclonal antibodies that work against the variants) the government does not want to skip any steps in the testing.

    This is no way to fight a serious epidemic.

    And there can’t be any mid course corrections with any drug once the testing process (clinical trial) has started.

    The reason the Regeneron and Eli Lilly monoclonal antibodies no longer work is that the companies decided to limit the risk of adverse effects by testing cocktails that contained only one or two f antibodies. That’s also true for GSK but GSK picked a better horse.

    Pfizer discovered that a 3 milligram dose of vaccine is good for 6 month to 2 year olds but doesn’t seem to be enough for 2 to 4 year olds. (5 to 11 year olds get 30)

    Rather than test out a bigger dose, they are proposing to try out a third shot for 2-4 year olds. (the approval process can be completed faster)

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  382. NJRob (eb56c3) — 12/28/2021 @ 9:17 am

    Omicron is not good news for some of the usual commenters here. Expect a redoubling of “but it prevents serious illness” in response to comments that don’t have anything to do with whether it prevents serious illness.

    When all they’ve got is a hammer …

    frosty (f27e97)

  383. It was the Food and Drug Administration and the Democrats who warned against Trump putting pressure on them for approval, who started the vaccine skepticism.

    It was the October Surprise accusation made against Reagan and Bush years after the 1980 election, by Jimmy Carter (he was behind it I believe – all 3 top promoters of it had a plausible connection to Jimmy Carter, especially Gary Sick, whom I read, but I can’t find a citation, let Jimmy Carter approve his manuscript) for real, and the companies timed their application so that no decision could be made before Election Day, 2020. (A similar accusation was made about Nixon stopping the Paris Peace talks from starting before the 1968 election)

    But here it was real.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  384. Where’s corporate America? At-home COVID tests are a free-market flop
    ……..
    ……[H]ere’s a question: Given the sheer size of the testing market, when will the private sector rush in to fill it? The omicron freakout has sent demand for at-home test kits soaring, but stories abound about how people can’t find either of the two most popular ones, which are made by Abbott Labs or Quidel. And if they can, they’re pricey — too pricey for folks dealing with the rising cost of everything else.

    And why are the BinaxNOW (the Abbott product) and the Quidel’s QuickVue the only mass-market products being made? This looks like a free-market flop: There’s demand for hundreds of millions of testing kits, but they’re impossible to find, which in turn drives scarcity and higher prices. When will we see more competition and the flood of supply that’s supposed to fill these kinds of market voids and bring prices down?

    Companies are always quick to say that they need some sort of incentive to bring something to market. What do they call demand from 330 million Americans — and possibly many more abroad? Are they looking for some sort of federal handout to get going? Whatever happened to just seeing huge demand for something, spending a bit to retool and then moving in? I call BS on the “need to be incentivized” excuse.

    The president says the feds will also build a government website where people can request a test kit and have it sent to their home. Let me see if I have this right. You go to a government website, order something and then, magically, it’s delivered to your doorstep? Aren’t there companies, I’m trying to think of them — oh, right: Amazon and Walmart perhaps you’ve heard of them — that do this?
    ……..
    Why does the government feel like it needs to take consumers away from these finely tuned transactional and logistical godzillas to distribute something that’s already available elsewhere? I’m guessing Amazon and Walmart don’t have 500 million test kits in their warehouses, but again, I’ve already spoken about the lack of manufacturing.
    …….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  385. Sammy Finkelman (c49738) — 12/28/2021 @ 9:43 am

    These games are one of the more offensive things about the pandemic.

    frosty (f27e97)

  386. @376, Sammy, that’s a pretty plausible explanation.

    Time123 (97645e)

  387. @390 sounds like a supply chain problem

    it’s not sone kind of new thing

    but, don’t worry Rip, that’s not biden’s fault either

    JF (e1156d)

  388. @393-

    I’m not worried, nor do I care. I haven’t encountered any supply chain issues for things that I want.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  389. The crazies are sending the FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization letter around Twitter right now:

    https://www.fda.gov/media/144412/download

    What caught their collective eyes is that the FDA approved the drugs for the “prevention of COVID-19“ amongst those who raised their sleeves. That is mentioned several times.

    Not mentioned is the therapeutic claim that the drug was really about making symptoms more mild.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  390. The Politburo rewarding a crony, what the Biden test kits are. With Obamacare, the online roll-out was given to Michelle Obama’s college roommate if you’ll recall. Jen Psaki’s roommate for this one?

    nk (1d9030)

  391. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/28/2021 @ 9:47 am

    That article is a good example of propaganda that is meant to confuse.

    The article was published on the 21st and it says

    It’s now about three-quarters of all U.S. COVID cases —stunning, given that no one had even heard of the variant until it was discovered a few weeks ago in South Africa.

    It’s stunning that no one had heard of it until it was discovered. This is part of the “no one could see it coming” mantra we’re hearing from the WH. Omicron was reported to WHO on Nov. 24th and it was first detected on the 11th. That would be 3 weeks and 5 days. Technically, that is a few. For Brandus this idea of variants and how they’re named must be a truly mind boggling process.

    Then it says:

    This looks like a free-market flop: There’s demand for hundreds of millions of testing kits, but they’re impossible to find, which in turn drives scarcity and higher prices.

    So, this looks like we’re going in an anti-market pro-government direction.

    I call BS on the “need to be incentivized” excuse.

    So far so good. Biden couldn’t see it coming but those free market capitalist should have. But then

    The president says the feds will also build a government website where people can request a test kit and have it sent to their home. Let me see if I have this right. You go to a government website, order something and then, magically, it’s delivered to your doorstep?

    it’s not a pro-government article? Let’s see

    while I empathize with Biden’s desire to help, and to save lives, this isn’t a problem for an old career bureaucrat to fix — even if he could. It’s a problem for the free market.

    there it is. We’ve circled back to how this isn’t something Mr “I will end this” should be held responsible for even though he declared a “summer of joy and freedom” back in July. Did the “winter of death” poll better?

    frosty (f27e97)

  392. As for Trump coming out for pro-vax, he is Trump and therefore 1) he figures Biden’s Covid deaths now equal or exceed his Covid deaths so there’s no need to kill more Americans unless Putin pays for more AND 2) and every conman knows he need to tweak and readjust the con as circumstances dictate otherwise it will all fizzle out.

    nk (1d9030)

  393. RIP screenwriter Burt Prelutsky (81).

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  394. Not mentioned is the therapeutic claim that the drug was really about making symptoms more mild.

    BuDuh (4a7846) — 12/28/2021 @ 10:18 am

    I actually think that is the only thing it says but the discussion on this has been intentionally clouded.

    The “Criteria for Issuance of Authorization” says:

    it is reasonable to believe that Pfizer-BioNTech COVID‑19 Vaccine may be effective in preventing COVID-19

    COVID-19 is being used here to describe the disease or condition that is a result of a SARS-CoV-2 infection, aka the symptoms.

    What I don’t think you’ll find is any claim that it prevents SARS-CoV-2 infections.

    frosty (f27e97)

  395. I understood it to be claiming that post treatment the symptoms would be prevented, frosty. Are we saying the same thing?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  396. @395 Buduh, Per the most recent data (looks like October) from the CDC an unvaccinated person is 5 times more likely to test positive for covid compared to someone vaccinated and 10 times more likely then someone vaccinated and boosted. The available data for the Emergency Use Exemption would have been from the clinical studies which showed an even higher reduction for Pfizer, but a lower one from J&J.

    So yes, the vaccines reduce the rate of contracting and testing positive for Covid.

    https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  397. @401 I think so. I’m not on twitter so I don’t have the full context of your comment.

    frosty (f27e97)

  398. Consumer Confidence Improved Again in December

    The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased again in December, after an upward revision in November. The Index now stands at 115.8 (1985=100), up from 111.9 (an upward revision) in November. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—was relatively flat at 144.1, down from 144.4 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose to 96.9 from 90.2.

    “Consumer confidence improved further in December, following a very modest gain in November,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index dipped slightly but remains very high, suggesting the economy has maintained its momentum in the final month of 2021. Expectations about short-term growth prospects improved, setting the stage for continued growth in early 2022. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, major appliances, and vacations over the next six months all increased.”
    …………
    Present Situation

    Consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions was more favorable in December.

    19.9% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 17.9%.
    26.8% of consumers said business conditions were “bad,” down from 27.3%.
    Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was moderately less favorable.

    55.1% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 55.5%; still a historically strong reading.
    12.5% of consumers said jobs are “hard to get,” up from 10.8%.

    Expectations Six Month Hence

    Consumers’ optimism about the short-term business conditions outlook increased in December.

    26.7% of consumers expect business conditions will improve, up from 25.6%.
    17.9% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 19.6%.
    Consumers were also more optimistic about the short-term labor market outlook.

    25.1% of consumers expect more jobs to be available in the months ahead, up from 22.8%.
    14.8% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 19.0%.
    Consumers were slightly less positive about their short-term financial prospects.

    18.0% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 18.9%.
    11.5% expect their incomes will decrease, down slightly from 11.7%.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  399. To make my point explicit: Even after the introduction of New variants the vaccine is still very effective at reducing cases of covid infection.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  400. https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&trendline=true

    Here’s a fun poll from a leftist outlet that you somehow missed Rip.

    Biden down to 37% approval.

    NJRob (c6ecfe)

  401. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/28/2021 @ 9:47 am

    This looks like a free-market flop: There’s demand for hundreds of millions of testing kits, but they’re impossible to find, which in turn drives scarcity and higher prices.

    The free market is failing to supply goods because manufacturers are very concerned about overstock and have all gone big on inventory control. They would rather make too little than make too much and lose money. They even, because their cost accounting tells them to, (why spend money maintaining a factory or assembly line?) sometimes cut down on potential production, which is actually outsmarting themselves.

    Because they’re all big companies and more afraid of losing money than of missing a short term opportunity to make a profit because they think that in the long run they’ll make more money operating that way.

    In the past, they could quickly ramp up production but the pandemic restrictions have caused all sorts of supply bottlenecks. What we’re seeing is that it takes a few weeks to cut back on production but could take over a year to get it back up. Of course there’s competition and somebody will be first.

    When will we see more competition and the flood of supply that’s supposed to fill these kinds of market voids and bring prices down?

    The middle of 2023, if the Federal Reserve Board doesn’t cause a rise in interest rates. Then there will be an oversupply (coming from different producers) and inflation will end and prices will drop. If they just let it happen.

    Companies are always quick to say that they need some sort of incentive to bring something to market.

    There’s something more they need, too. They want predictable business. Even when they take a flyer on something, even when it’s their basic business plan to do so, they still want things to be as predictable as possible. And there’s all kinds of problems and it’s going to take awhile for many companies to make good guesses. Patterns are not the same and, relatively speaking, there are too many bigger companies, that is, not enough players and too many players play the same way.

    In the spring of 2020 they expected demand to drop. It didn’t and demand for physical goods (as opposed to services) even went up because of coronavirus relief measures. Meanwhile, China began exporting masks all over the world including to places where there was no return freight and containers piled up in African ports and the like creating shipping problems after about a year, which most people didn’t see coming..

    And sometimes manufacturers favor their bigger customers, or items on which they make a bigger margin all the time. (they’re not too interested in a temporary price spike) That is what has happened to chips, resulting in constraints on new car production and some medical devices.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  402. Healthy, boosted people unlikely to develop severe omicron infections, but jury’s out on older, at-risk populations
    ……..
    Those infected by the omicron variant are 15 to 20 percent less likely to go to an emergency room, and 40 percent less likely to be hospitalized overnight, compared with those infected with delta, according to English data analyzed by scientists from Imperial College London. That aligns with early U.S. data from some hospitals.

    At the Houston Methodist hospital system, about 15 percent of symptomatic individuals have ended up hospitalized — around a 70 percent reduction compared with those infected by the delta variant, said James Musser, chair of pathology and genomic medicine.

    A separate study from Britain, which is not yet peer reviewed, found that people infected with omicron were almost 60 percent less likely to enter the hospital than those infected with delta.

    “What is absolutely clear is there is lower rate of hospitalization with our omicron patients in our hospital system,” Musser said. “That does not necessarily mean that this variant is quote-unquote ‘less virulent.’ The jury’s still out on that. What we know now is that … if you are immunized and, more importantly, if you are boosted, you’re going to stay out of substantial trouble.”
    ………
    The welcome news for most people who are vaccinated and boosted is that omicron infections often mimic the symptoms of the common cold. Those with two shots of vaccine, but no booster, also appear to fare relatively well, though they may develop more intense symptoms that may last longer, experts said.

    Of the 205 million Americans who have been vaccinated, about 66 million, or 32 percent, have received a booster dose, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
    ……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  403. https://www.fox5ny.com/news/new-record-nearly-50000-new-covid-cases-in-ny

    Not according to the numbers Time.

    New records are being set daily. And those are since the beginning of the pandemic.

    NJRob (c6ecfe)

  404. What do they call demand from 330 million Americans — and possibly many more abroad? Are they looking for some sort of federal handout to get going? Whatever happened to just seeing huge demand for something, spending a bit to retool and then moving in?

    Nowadays many items use raw materials or parts that come from all over the world. They can’t get more because their suppliers, or the suppliers of their suppliers, or the suppliers of the suppliers of their suppliers, shut down or cut back in 2020.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  405. The president says the feds will also build a government website where people can request a test kit and have it sent to their home. Let me see if I have this right. You go to a government website, order something and then, magically, it’s delivered to your doorstep?

    The delivery is probably the least of the problems. USPS, PS and Fed Ex can do it. The postal service, by the way, no longer accepts new addresses for home delivery but the vast majority of dwellings are grandfathered in. Apartment buildings may have mailboxes for all outside if there are sufficient addressees to justify installing one – otherwise it may be delivered at the Post Office or an annex. (everybody has cars in those places, right?)

    Aren’t there companies, I’m trying to think of them — oh, right: Amazon and Walmart perhaps you’ve heard of them — that do this?

    Why does the government feel like it needs to take consumers away from these finely tuned transactional and logistical godzillas to distribute something that’s already available elsewhere?

    The Biden administration came up with this:

    1) In order to be able to say they’re doing something.

    2) Because these test kits, unlike all the others, are to be given away free. (so that people won’t hesitate to use them, and so that the poorest non-homeless people will be able to use them, except that then they are probably going to try to limit costs to the government and because they will only have so much. But in theory, anyone will be able to test for Covid and get an instant result.)

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  406. @402 I think BuDuh, you, and I are saying the same thing. The vaccine reduces the number of people testing positive for COVID, at least it used to. It’s not having the same luck with omicron.

    You got this one right. Enjoy it. Bask in the light of an honest comment.

    frosty (f27e97)

  407. Pediatric hospitalizations up 395% in NYC amid COVID-19 surge
    ……..
    Pediatric hospitalizations are up 395% in New York City since the week ending December 11, jumping from 22 to 109 the week ending December 23. Statewide pediatric hospitalizations jumped from 70 to 184.

    The state’s trend is having a particularly disturbing impact on unvaccinated children — even as the state touts a high vaccination rate among adults. Of the 5- to 11-year-old children admitted to New York City hospitals with COVID from the week of December 5 until the current week, none were fully vaccinated.

    Meanwhile, the number of kids hospitalized with the virus statewide has risen 2.5-fold, from 70 to 184, over the same period.
    ……..
    Children continue to account for about a quarter (23.7%) of reported weekly coronavirus cases in the U.S., according to the report (from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association). On average, nearly 200 children in the U.S. are being admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 each day, according to federal data.
    ……..
    As of Dec. 5, fewer than 17% of 5-to-11-year-old children had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose, according to a KFF analysis.
    ……..
    Although young people have largely been spared from acute COVID-19 illness, experts stress that children are not immune from the virus. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, children are as likely to be infected with COVID-19 as adults, and the virus is now one of the top 10 causes of death for children ages 5 through 11 years.
    ……..
    However, about two-thirds of parents of elementary school-aged children are either holding off on getting their younger children vaccinated or refuse to do so, according to another recent KFF poll, conducted before the discovery of omicron.
    ……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  408. To make my point explicit: Even after the introduction of New variants the vaccine is still very effective at reducing cases of covid infection.

    Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/28/2021 @ 11:05 am

    So close. And you only got to enjoy the light for what? A few minutes? This is the epitome of ignoring advice from Mark Twain.

    I thought for sure you’d figured out the difference between cases of COVID-19 and infections with SARS-CoV-2.

    frosty (f27e97)

  409. 327–Time, I’m not sure about the last ten years or so total, but I think it’s pretty clear that a housing bubble started getting inflated after the pandemic started due to general volatility. Prior to that, housing inflation didn’t seem to be driven by the same sort of factors that led to the 2007-08 crash. The Fed persisting in keeping interest rates low is definitely driving one now, IMO.

    Factory Working Orphan (af876a)

  410. The scary thing is that as a % increase we’re running above where we were before the housing crash.

    On that chart you link, I add “housing starts” and see a fundamental difference, between 2008 and now, that shows 1) why area prices continue to climb and 2) why I’m not so concerned about any upcoming crash. If anything, the data shows that local home building could stand an uptick.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  411. He’s always been very good at marketing and I hope he’s able to change a large number of minds.

    I think he’s discovered that, outside of a pocket of his own supporters who simply distrust (or hate) Biden, that being seen as anti-vaccine isn’t the way to win hearts and minds.

    By the time this is over, one out of every 200-300 US residents will have died from (or, if you prefer, while in the throws of) Covid. These people will leave survivors who are disinclined to support someone who “contributed” to these deaths. FAR FAR better to walk away and let Biden have the spotlight on this one. It hurt Trump in 2020. It will hurt Biden more, since Biden was the man who VOLUNTEERED to fix it and was the man with the plan.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  412. Hi Kevin in #212 you noted my innumerancy. I agree with you. Not my strongest suit.
    I was trying to say that by far most people (over 90%) who die from COVID have other health, age and well being issues that have put them one very bad coronavirus cold away from dying.
    Nevertheless very few have died maybe 1M in a country of 330M. The number that have died from COVID, no comorbidities is less than 100,000.

    Death with vaccine: “FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause.” “More than 485 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through December 13, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 10,483 reports of death (0.0022%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. CDC and FDA clinicians review reports of death to VAERS including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records.”
    “Continued monitoring has identified nine deaths causally associated with J&J/Janssen COVID-19 vaccination.”
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html

    Something seemed off with the above because 8200 people die every day in the US, until I realized that VAERS stands for Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, so this 0.0022% number is people who died very soon after being vaccinated and medical professionals felt that the death was within reporting guidelines. (The FDA requires reporting of VAE after vaccination, but I can’t find the guidelines for exactly what “after” means. There has to be a timeframe)

    My personal guess is the number of deaths by vaccine is more than the 9 stated, but less than the 10,483.

    Kevin, thanks for posting. It encouraged me to take a deeper dive.
    Have a great run throughout the New Year 2022.

    steveg (e81d76)

  413. If you just google myocarditis you’ll get a variety of links. One is to the CDC.

    Please show me a quote that says “myocarditis is a risk factor for the mRNA vaccines.”

    The CDC page simply says “we have received assertions on our public-facing comment page that myocarditis can occur after vaccination, and we are looking into it. We would like as much documentation as we can get.”

    They have also gotten reports of many other ailments that follow vaccination. This does not mean anything other than “they have received reports.”

    Why do people think that “reported connects” are “factual connections”? Every time my neighbor’s dog barks my taxes go up, but that does not mean the dog’s barking causes it.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  414. Please show me a quote that says “myocarditis is a risk factor for the mRNA vaccines.”

    Here is one from the New Zealand Authorities that you mocked:

    Reminder: Comirnaty vaccination (Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine) can cause myocarditis and pericarditis
    20 December 2021

    On 21 July 2021 we published an Alert Communication on the identification of myocarditis and pericarditis as a new but rare side effect of vaccination with Comirnaty vaccine (Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine). We are reminding everyone that myocarditis and pericarditis can occur after any dose of the Comirnaty vaccine, including after a booster dose. Children can also experience myocarditis and pericarditis after vaccination with Comirnaty. We have received reports for children aged 12 to 16 years.

    https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/safety/Alerts/comirnaty-myocarditis-reminder.htm

    Just out of curiosity, why do you think the FDA required multiple studies of myocarditis when they approved Comirnaty? I posted the approval letter above.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  415. When talking about diseases, particularly when folks can have a myriad of other co-morbidity, we have to estrapulate as best as we can with the actual causes.

    Certainly, but focusing on co-morbidities allows some to assert that it was the co-morbidity that killed them. Even if they were severely weakened by chronic condition, an acute illness that ends in their death can accurately be called the cause of death.

    If an overweight person with diabetes, gout and shingles has a piano fall on his head, or is shot, or contracts Covid-pneumonia, it is disingenuous to assert that they died from the weight, gout, diabetes or shingles. They may have been contributing factors, but without the Covid they would still be alive.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  416. …focusing on co-morbidities Covid allows some to assert that it was the co-morbidity Covid that killed them.

    Can’t argue with that!

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  417. It will hurt Biden more, since Biden was the man who VOLUNTEERED claimed to have to fix[ed] it and was the man with[out] [a] plan.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 11:50 am

    We have nothing to fear but fear itself.
    Ask not what your country can do for you.
    We have, as all will agree, a free Government, where every man has a right to be equal with every other man.
    Speak softly and carry a big stick.

    And then there’s Biden. The winter of death thing really is a classic.

    frosty (f27e97)

  418. Which 2024 Candidates Won 2021? Part One-The Republicans
    ………
    The Punch-Drunk Gambler-Donald Trump

    The safest bet to make regarding 2024 is that if Trump wants the Republican Party’s nomination, he will get the Republican Party’s nomination. Unlike most one-term presidents, Trump remains popular within his own party. Polls indicate he would lap the primary field, typically putting at least 30 points between himself and his closest potential opponent.

    Yet Trump spent his 2021 sowing disunity — picking fights with insufficiently slavish Republicans and wading into scores of down-ballot primary contests with endorsements. The intent may have been to tighten his grip on the Republican Party, and perhaps even put loyalists in enough crucial positions to steal the 2024 election for himself. But it hasn’t always worked out so well. As National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar recently wrote, “The president has been acting like a punch-drunk gambler lately, throwing endorsements around like candy without doing the requisite vetting of his favored picks.”
    ……….
    Did Trump make good use of 2021? No. He has the inside track to the nomination, but his insecure, bullying nature led him to spend more time attacking fellow Republicans than Democrats, undermining his ability to unite his own party behind him.

    The Rule Follower-Mike Pence

    In the modern presidential primary era, nearly every vice president who has run for the presidency has at least won his party’s nomination. The lone exception is Dan Quayle, who in 2000 had the misfortune of running against his old running mate’s son. A bid by Mike Pence in 2024 would face a stiffer challenge: either directly running against his old running mate, or running in the face of his old running mate’s withering scorn.
    ……..
    Polling suggests Pence has maintained a modicum of support that’s enough to set him apart from most of the potential field. He is generally running in second or third place, cracking double digits when Trump is not included. In November’s Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, when excluding both Trump and his son, Pence reaches a respectable 25 percent.

    Pence’s political strategy is the exact opposite of Trump’s. Litigate the future, not the past…….
    ……..
    Did Pence make good use of 2021? Yes. He may have an uphill battle ahead, but he is more his own person today than one year ago.

    The Fauci Fighter-Ron DeSantis

    Perhaps more than any other Republican officeholder, the governor of Florida has figured out how to be a political brawler without looking like a pale imitation of Donald Trump. He has picked his own fights on his own terms, drawing national attention for belligerently snubbing measures to stop the spread of Covid-19 and calling Dr. Anthony Fauci, “the most destructive bureaucrat in the history of our country.”……

    Thanks to his persistent pugnacity and purple state location, DeSantis has broken out of the GOP pack. In 2024 primary polls that don’t include Trump, DeSantis has almost always held the lead.

    However, like everyone else, he doesn’t fare well in polls that do include Trump. And he hasn’t done anything to establish a rationale for running against Trump. What he has done is annoy Trump for not ruling out a run against Trump.
    ………
    Did DeSantis make good use of 2021? Yes, but only if Trump doesn’t run.

    The Governors Who Are Not Ron DeSantis-Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu, Kristi Noem, Greg Abbott and Asa Hutchinson

    South Dakota’s Kristi Noem kicked up some dust with her open defiance of mask mandates and federal pandemic guidelines, including the welcoming of the annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally (which led to a summer surge of infections). …….

    Texas’ Greg Abbott tried even harder to establish himself as a conservative pace setter. Not only did he issue an executive order preventing private employers from issuing their own vaccine mandates (though failing to get codification from his state legislature), he also dropped the biggest culture war bomb of the year: effectively a six-week abortion ban that empowers citizens to sue anyone who helps a Texan get an abortion. But perhaps because of Abbott’s low-wattage persona, he hasn’t generated as many headlines as DeSantis.

    New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu said in April, “I supported President Trump. He didn’t win. We’re moving on,” and “Donald Trump doesn’t define the Republican Party.” Arkansas’ Asa Hutchinson has publicly opposed a Trump ’24 bid, criticized Trump’s April rant at Mar-a-Lago for lambasting other Republicans and counseled that “re-litigating 2020 is a recipe for disaster in 2022.” Maryland’s Larry Hogan has never even voted for Trump, opting to write in deceased personal heroes (Ronald Reagan in 2020, his father in 2016).
    ……….
    Did these governors make good use of 2021? No. The hard-right conservativism of Abbott and Noem was overshadowed by DeSantis. And the nuanced conservatism of Hogan, Sununu and Hutchinson didn’t make much of an impression, even among the faction of Republican Trump skeptics.
    ……..

    The Cravenly Opportunistic Trump Hangers On Who Never Liked Trump in the First Place-Chris Christie, Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo

    During the 2016 presidential primary, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said of his opponent Trump, “Always beware of the candidate for public office who has the quick and easy answer to a complicated problem.” South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley said Trump is “everything a governor doesn’t want in a president.” And Rep. Mike Pompeo, stumping for Marco Rubio during the Kansas caucus, tried to equate Trump with the Republican caricature of Barack Obama: “We’ve spent 7.5 years with an authoritarian president who ignored our Constitution. We don’t need four more years of that.”

    All three soon stifled their criticisms and went to work for Trump…….. Now all three clearly want to run for president in 2024, but don’t know how to run against their old boss.
    ………
    Did Christie, Haley and Pompeo make good use of 2021? No. They haven’t figured out how to cleanly break with Trump without exposing their craven opportunism.

    The Sad Sack Senators-Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Marco Rubio, Rick Scott and Tim Scott
    ……..
    Of those senators whose 2021 travel schedules took them to Iowa and New Hampshire, there have been no great floor speeches, no show-stopping filibusters, no captivating visions of the future. You are more likely to catch them trolling libs on Twitter, and not even all that well.
    ………
    Perhaps the GOP senator who had the best 2021 is South Carolina’s Tim Scott, who had a burst of positive coverage in April after his response to Biden’s address to the joint session of Congress — an assignment that has tripped up past presidential hopefuls. In that address and elsewhere, he showed his ability to combine personal stories of being a target of racism with troll-ish criticism of Democrats for being racially divisive, making him a potentially potent leader of the conservative culture wars.
    ………
    But even with all that good fortune, the low-key Scott isn’t a constant media presence and hasn’t yet made much of an impression on voters. In 2024 polls, he is on par with Mike Pompeo.
    ………
    Did these senators make good use of 2021? No. Tim Scott had a better year than the others, but he missed an opportunity to fully capitalize on his April address and command the media spotlight for the rest of the year.

    The Opposite Sides of the House-Liz Cheney and Marjorie Taylor Greene

    One got expelled from the House Republican leadership team and the Wyoming Republican Party … and was recently spotted in New Hampshire. The other was stripped of all her House committee assignments … which freed up her schedule to visit Iowa. In October, both called each other a “joke” during a scrap on the House floor. If they both run for president, Reps. Liz Cheney and Marjorie Taylor Greene could stage the biggest fight for the soul of the Republican Party we’ve ever seen.
    ………..
    Did Cheney and Greene make good use of 2021? Yes. How quickly can you name two other House Republicans?
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  419. If an overweight person with diabetes, gout and shingles has a piano fall on his head, or is shot, or contracts Covid-pneumonia, it is disingenuous to assert that they died from the weight, gout, diabetes or shingles. They may have been contributing factors, but without the Covid they would still be alive.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 12:09 pm

    I keep thinking we’re approaching peak logical inconsistency and I keep being proven wrong.

    1) piano falling on head – not related to obesity, diabetes, gout, or shingles
    2) being shot – not related to obesity, diabetes, gout, or shingles
    3) ability to avoid or survive pneumonia – related to obesity and other health factors

    This is one of those multiple things aren’t like other things games.

    And that’s just one problem. We’re ignoring how it doesn’t make sense to take stats with multiple variables and not adjust for them when we know they don’t apply.

    frosty (f27e97)

  420. BuDuh,

    What you have “proven” (they still do not use the word “caused”) is that, in very very rare cases, there are allergic reactions to *something* that can be a problem (not all myocarditis cases end in death). They seem to be concerned about possible rare polysorbate allergies.

    At which point, I say “So What?” The CDC also says:

    COVID-19 vaccination will help protect people from getting COVID-19. Adults and children may have some side effects from the vaccine, which are normal signs that their body is building protection. These side effects may affect their ability to do daily activities, but they should go away in a few days. Some people have no side effects, and allergic reactions are rare.

    Serious side effects that could cause a long-term health problem are extremely unlikely following any vaccination, including COVID-19 vaccination. Vaccine monitoring has historically shown that side effects generally happen within six weeks of receiving a vaccine dose. For this reason, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) collected data on each of the authorized COVID-19 vaccines for a minimum of two months (eight weeks) after the final dose. CDC is continuing to monitor the safety of COVID-19 vaccines even now that the vaccines are in use.

    The benefits of COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the known and potential risks. Rare cases of myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) and pericarditis (inflammation of the outer lining of the heart) in adolescents and young adults have been reported more often after getting the second dose than after the first dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines.

    The number of people who have died from while deathly ill with Covid are 800K in the USA and well over 5 million worldwide (probably more because some countries like China are lying). The number of people who have died due to highly abnormal reactions to the vaccines are few. Perhaps as many as hundreds, perhaps not, and more with the non-mRNA vaccines than with Pfizer or Moderna (the FDA is deprecating the J&J vaccine and the 50 or so other vaccines available in other countries are no recommended at all).

    In summary, every medicine, food, fabric, pet or whathaveyou can cause an allergic reaction. Drug companies try really hard to avoid that, but there will be people who are allergic to whatever you use. In this case the numbers are very small, and the benefit of the vaccine is very large.

    So, again, “So what?” and this is the last thing I will say on this topic. People die in plane crashes, too.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  421. Just my opinion but that Politico quote is too long for such a stupid article, Rip.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  422. Kevin can speak for himself but it seems clear he’s saying that if this death was caused by an infection we shouldn’t blame that on the vaccine.

    I thought it was clear, too.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  423. Kevin believes that small percentage death risks are meaningless unless it is the small percentage deaths related to Covid.

    Then it is scary and deserves Martial law.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  424. Why is “proven” in quotes, Kevin?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  425. Which 2024 Candidates Won 2021?-The Democrats

    The Underwater President-Joe Biden
    ……..
    Biden is not the first president with job approval numbers that fall below 50 percent mid-way through his first term, and many who have — including the last two Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton — recover in time to win reelection. Perhaps this time next year, the pandemic will be tamed, inflation will have cooled, and a revised Build Back Better bill will be law.

    But whatever your opinion about the merits of Biden’s policy choices — and whether or not they will eventually pay off politically — what’s indisputable about 2021 is Biden repeatedly failed to meet the expectations that he and his administration chose to set.
    ……..
    Did Biden make good use of 2021? No. Instead of reminding Democrats of his proven ability to defeat Donald Trump, Biden ends the year with polls suggesting he could lose a rematch, and renewed chatter that the soon-to-be octogenarian won’t run for reelection.

    The Heir, Apparently-Kamala Harris

    By almost every measure, Vice President Kamala Harris had the worst year of any Democratic office holder with the exception of Andrew Cuomo. Her job approval and favorability numbers track in the low 40s, lower than Biden’s. Her portfolio assignments of immigration and voting rights have been sources of controversy and frustration. Her media coverage has been relentlessly negative, shaped by Democratic operatives fretting about her political standing and management style, and by conservative commentators either pouncing on gaffes or manufacturing phony controversies. An end-of-year communications team “exodus,” in the words of the Washington Post, suggested the wheels were coming off.

    But a mid-December poll from Morning Consult shows the year of bad press hasn’t severely damaged her standing among rank-and-file Democrats. In a 2024 primary without Biden, Harris is in first with 31 percent, 20 points ahead of Pete Buttigieg, powered by a dominating 52 percent of support among African Americans.
    ………
    Did Harris make good use of 2021? No, but she may have figured out how to have a better year in 2022.

    The Frenemy-Pete Buttigieg

    While Harris’ 2021 media coverage has been almost universally negative, the coverage of the other former presidential candidate in the Cabinet — Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — has been almost universally positive, so much so that some people inside the White House have privately mused about Buttigieg being better suited than Harris to succeed Biden. And now that the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is law, Buttigieg is perfectly positioned to travel the country, hand out federal grants and bask in friendly local coverage.

    But these favorable developments don’t address what stymied his 2020 presidential campaign: scant support among African American voters. That Morning Consult poll with Harris getting 52 percent of the Black vote had Buttigieg with just 3 percent.
    ……….
    Did Buttigieg make good use of 2021? Yes, but he still hasn’t figured out how to solve his biggest political problem.

    The Purist-Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    The New York congresswoman retains one of the biggest social media followings in Washington and remains the most likely democratic socialist to carry Bernie Sanders’ torch. But that torch is flickering.

    Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) — who immigrated to America and cannot run for president — was a more influential progressive figure in Congress this past year than Ocasio-Cortez……..
    ………
    Ocasio-Cortez’s efforts to elect more socialists faltered in 2021. She campaigned for India Walton, who ended up losing the race for mayor of Buffalo despite being the only person on the ballot (the incumbent mayor, whom Walton defeated in a low-turnout Democratic primary, won the general election with a write-in campaign). She also was unable to help Nina Turner, the co-chair of Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, win the Democratic nomination in the special election to represent Ohio’s 11th Congressional District. Convincing the party to move farther left in 2024 and back her bid would be a very tall order. But Ocasio-Cortez may be compelled to run anyway, in hopes of further nurturing a democratic socialist network within the Democratic Party.

    Did Ocasio-Cortez make good use of 2021? No. Her influence in the Progressive Caucus was diminished and she didn’t prove she can get ideological allies elected, even in some of the bluest areas of the country.

    If at First You Don’t Succeed….-Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren
    ………
    Klobuchar ran for president in 2020 as a pragmatist schooled in the art of bipartisanship, but lacking significant African American support, she was unable to outpace Biden in the moderate lane. This past year, Klobuchar has been more partisan, abandoning her past support of the filibuster so Democrats can pass voting rights and gun background check legislation on party line votes.

    Such a shift could theoretically help Klobuchar broaden her base among primary voters. But like Buttigieg, she still would have a difficult time earning African American support while challenging Harris. (That Morning Consult poll in which Buttigieg got 3 percent of the Black vote? That’s 3 points more than Klobuchar.)
    ……..
    ……..Warren failed to dissuade Biden from renominating Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, and she has yet to convince Biden to stretch his executive power and cancel $50,000 of student loan debt per borrower. All this trademark persistence is reaffirming to her devout supporters, who skew towards the highly educated. But Warren didn’t do anything new to show she’s figured out how to win over non-college voters.

    Did Klobuchar and Warren make good use of 2021? No. They were boxed out of most of the Senate action by their moderate colleagues.

    The Martin O’Malley Lane-Gavin Newsom, Roy Cooper, J.B. Pritzker, Phil Murphy and Gretchen Whitmer

    The Democrats have one less ambitious governor to think about, as Andrew Cuomo’s political career imploded in 2021 over sexual harassment charges. But California’s Gavin Newsom is ending a roller coaster 2021 on top, having overcome his scandalous unmasked appearance at the exclusive French Laundry restaurant to handily defeat the Republican-driven recall. His thirst for making national news — which has been evident ever since 2004 when as San Francisco mayor he declared same-sex marriage to be legal until he was shut down by the judiciary — is unquenched……..

    Yet 2024 will probably not be his year. Even if Biden passed on a reelection campaign, a run against Harris — a fellow Bay Area pol — would be incredibly awkward. ……

    ……[S]]ome other Democratic governors may be thinking about the presidency, including North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker, New Jersey’s Phil Murphy and Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer. But none of the four have taken any concrete steps towards a run or found excuses to visit Iowa and New Hampshire.

    Did these governors make good use of 2021? Newsom did as much as he could. The rest didn’t do much beyond feeding the gossip mill at a (Democratic Governors Association) conference.
    #############

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  426. I’m going to outright claim that viral or bacterial infection would not be related to the Pfizer vaccine.

    What words do you need to insert in that for it to mean that “viral and bacterial causes would be from other sources.” I left open the possibility of allergies and similar. I’m just not one to assume that “after that” means “because of that.” I’d need to see data on the incidence of myocarditis in a control group and such, as well as the provenance of the reports. At no point did I say that it was impossible for an allergy to something in the vaccine could cause it, but since the numbers are so very very small, it’s more or an academic concern than anything.

    I actually do not care, and neither should anyone else. It is scare tactics to build this up as if it was anything comparable to the thing that has KILLED people in the millions. Why are people doing this? It seems quite evil to me.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  427. @419 time, I think kevin is saying you misunderstood his comment.

    Please show me a quote that says “myocarditis is a risk factor for the mRNA vaccines.”

    It’s in the article you didn’t read. In the first paragraph. If you don’t trust Kiwi’s you can try the NEJM.

    frosty (f27e97)

  428. Oklahoma bill gives parents the right to have a book removed from a school library

    An Oklahoma lawmaker wants to give parents the right to compel public school libraries to remove books that contains objectionable content of a sexual nature or addresses sexual preferences or sexual and gender identity.

    Under Senate Bill 1142, if just one parent objects to a book it must be removed within 30 days. If it is not, the librarian must be fired and cannot work for any public school for two years. Parents can also collect at least $10,000 per day from school districts if the book is not removed as requested.
    …….
    While (State Sen. Rob Standridge, R-Norman, the bill’s sponsor) acknowledged all the books on the list address LGBTQ+ issues, Standridge said he hasn’t seen any examples of heterosexual books that fall into the category. However, if a school was loaning out “Fifty Shades of Grey,” his bill would cover that as well. He also said he’s not worried that schools would have to also remove “The Bible,” for example, given that the Old Testament’s “Song of Songs” contains graphic sexual depictions, because he contends that schools don’t have Bibles on library shelves.

    Standridge said if a district refuses to remove a book, a parent would have to sue and get an arbiter.

    “Most likely these things will end up in court,” Standridge said. “My guess is the schools won’t comply and the parents will have to seek injunctive relief. That will be up to the trier of fact. They may well disagree with the parent and say reasonable parents would want their children to be exposed to transgender, queer and other sexually-related books. I would doubt that.”
    ………
    State Rep. Jacob Rosecrants, D-Norman, said locally elected school boards are already empowered to make decisions about school library content. He said they have exercised that authority, for instance, by banning explicit books and ones that contain nudity.

    He said he’s concerned that the measure gives one single parent the sole power to decide whether a library can possess a book and fears it will be a “slippery slope” that invites chaos because it could impact any book that contains the word “sex.” He said it also ignores the fact that schools have diverse student bodies.

    “They say on the other side that they’re trying to stop indoctrination,” Rosecrants said. “This looks to me like it is indoctrination. When you’re trying to say what somebody should or shouldn’t do or somebody should or shouldn’t read, isn’t that the epitome of that?”
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  429. Rip, this is from Jim Miller on the open thread where he misrepresented George Washington’s inoculations of the troops:

    #33 – Here’s the Wikipedia article on fair use, which explains, in general terms, how much of a copyrighted article you can copy, without permission.

    (My own general rule is no more than two or three short paragraphs from a column or news article. If the material is not behind a paywall, then I often use even less, and provide the link.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1) — 11/20/2021 @ 9:25 am

    https://patterico.com/2021/11/19/weekend-open-thread-111/

    Not that the quote I provided has anything to do with the misrepresentation. It was a separate comment about something that greatly concerns Jim.

    Personally, I don’t care. I only post it for informational purposes. Like how you post your links.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  430. Kevin believes that small percentage death risks are meaningless unless it is the small percentage deaths related to Covid.

    Small percentage? 800,000 out of 300,000,000 is admittedly small compared to, say “everyone” but it is hardly negligible. It is more Americans than have died in all US wars. It is more than the number of Americans killed in car crashes in the last 20 years.

    The other number is much much smaller, and to not know the difference is innumerate, as I said before.

    800,000 is MUCH larger than 80, or even 800. Please show statistics on vaccine-caused deaths in the US each year. Even if all the (possibly astroturfed) claims on VAERS are actually true, it is still more that 3 orders of magnitude less than the deaths from Covid. More likely 5 orders of magnitude, what whatever.

    Either you are innumerate, or you are exceptionally dishonest, to claim that 800,000 and 80 (or 800 or 8,000) are similar numbers.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  431. It is more Americans than have died in all US wars.

    We’ve been over this. You need to use the percentage that died based on those at risk of death. The denominator is a much smaller number that the total US population at the time. Why mislead?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  432. Please show me a quote that says “myocarditis is a risk factor for the mRNA vaccines.”

    They still don’t actually say that. They say “we have received reports” or “we are concerned there might be” or other evasions. But they never say that they have established a causal link.

    But that is also beside the point. Even if they do establish a causal link, the numbers are in the ones and twos where the disease prevented or limited by the vaccine is 4 to 5 orders of magnitude more likely to kill the same person.

    Why is this even a talking point? It’s like standing outside of LAX with a sign that says “People die in plane crashes!”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  433. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 12:38 pm

    Time initially claimed you were making a comment about this specific case. I’m not sure he ever moved off of that and he needed to insert words in your comment to get that interpretation. He floundered a bit and now you’re doing the same trying to find some other reason in this case, or in all cases (it’s hard to tell at any given time what is being claimed).

    Do you have any evidence to suggest that the group in NZ that made this finding was wrong?

    but since the numbers are so very very small, it’s more or an academic concern than anything

    Ah, them goalposts, they be a moving. At least you’ve latched on to a better argument.

    frosty (f27e97)

  434. We’ve been over this. You need to use the percentage that died based on those at risk of death

    I see you leave out car crashes.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  435. Just my opinion but that Politico quote is too long for such a stupid article, Rip.

    BuDuh (4a7846) — 12/28/2021 @ 12:29 pm

    There are a lot of stupid people who are running for President.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  436. I see you leave out car crashes.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 1:00 pm

    You are the one who included both. Are you conceding that your WAR DEATHS!!! is now without merit and you want me to move on?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  437. Thanks. Rip.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  438. Here are a couple of comments where I helped Jim Miller with the math way back when:

    Combat survivability (out of 1,000): 8.6 were killed in action, 3 died from other causes, and 17.7 received non-fatal combat wounds

    https://www.nationalww2museum.org/students-teachers/student-resources/research-starters/research-starters-us-military-numbers

    8.6 / 1000 = 0.0086

    According to google the US population is 331,449,281.

    331,449,281 X 0.0086 = 2,850,464.

    You would have to multiply the aprox 600,000 covid deaths by about 4.75 to catch up to the same rate as WW2 deaths.

    I guess it took longer for WW2 to kill the total amount of soldiers, but since Covid deaths are on the steep decline, I don’t see that ever making a difference in the lethality of war, per capita, vs this virus.

    BuDuh (7bca93) — 6/12/2021 @ 3:47 pm

    And:

    Approximately 2,594,000 US Servicemen served in country during the Vietnam War.

    1,736,000 were US Army
    391,000 were US Marines
    293,000 were US Airmen
    174,000 were US Sailors (this figure includes the US Coast Guard)

    Casualties:
    Hostile deaths: 47,359
    Non-hostile deaths: 10,797

    Total: 58,156 (including men formerly classified as MIA and Mayaguez casualties).

    https://lzsally.com/archives/namfacts.html

    47,359 / 2,594,000 = 0.0183

    331,449,281 X 0.0183 = 6,051,313

    Essentially Covid times ten.

    BuDuh (7bca93) — 6/12/2021 @ 4:20 pm

    https://patterico.com/2021/06/11/weekend-open-thread-88/

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  439. Why is this even a talking point? It’s like standing outside of LAX with a sign that says “People die in plane crashes!”

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 12:59 pm

    Kevin M in any other comment: I want to punish people who don’t do what I’ve decided is best and I’m backed up by The Science(tm) and The Data(tm) even though I keep making bad analogies, misstating data, and otherwise relying on fear and emotion to make decisions.

    In other words this is a talking point because people like you are standing out in front of LAX wearing a sandwich board claiming that the end is nigh unless everyone obeys and complies.

    frosty (f27e97)

  440. Thanks. Rip.

    BuDuh (4a7846) — 12/28/2021 @ 1:07 pm

    I see your point, if there was a edit function I would substantially cut it down.

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  441. He died after waiting 15 days for a hospital bed:

    Throughout his life, Dale Weeks was characterized by family and friends in Iowa as “a good neighbor,” someone who would do anything for anyone. So when he was diagnosed with sepsis last month, the retired schools superintendent and his family hoped he would get immediate care and be okay to reunite with them for the holidays.

    But at a time when unvaccinated patients have again overwhelmed hospitals because of the fast-spreading omicron variant, finding an available bed at a large medical center able to give him the treatment he needed proved to be difficult. Weeks was being treated at a small, rural hospital and had waited 15 days to be transferred to a larger hospital with better treatment options because facilities throughout Iowa did not have an open bed for him as a result of the latest hospital surge of unvaccinated patients, his children told The Washington Post.

    But no, there’s a 0.0000001% chance of a fatal allergic reaction, so the vaccine is just as dangerous.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  442. frosty, you and BuDuh keep arguing this incredibly minute peripheral point, as if it means a damn thing.

    To me this says that you really don’t have any valid points and this is the bottom of your barrel. Admittedly, I have not treated the point with the consideration you think it is due.

    So sorry.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  443. You are the one who included both. Are you conceding that your WAR DEATHS!!! is now without merit and you want me to move on?

    this last part.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  444. Total fail, Kev.

    Hahahaha!

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  445. Earlier, I noted how the CDC arbitrarily halved its quarantine guidance from ten days to five. But one other thing I found interesting is that in its revised guidance for those who have been exposed, it lumps in vaccinated individuals who have not been boosted with those who were never vaccinated.

    The guidance reads:

    For people who are unvaccinated or are more than six months out from their second mRNA dose (or more than 2 months after the J&J vaccine) and not yet boosted, CDC now recommends quarantine for 5 days followed by strict mask use for an additional 5 days. Alternatively, if a 5-day quarantine is not feasible, it is imperative that an exposed person wear a well-fitting mask at all times when around others for 10 days after exposure. Individuals who have received their booster shot do not need to quarantine following an exposure, but should wear a mask for 10 days after the exposure.

    The message is clear — if you are vaccinated but un-boosted, you need to take the same level of precaution as those who have never been vaccinated.

    When Florida governor Ron DeSantis predicted that President Biden’s vaccine mandate would eventually apply to people who were vaccinated but not boosted, he was slammed by fact checkers. Weeks later, Anthony Fauci conceded the change was only a matter of “when, not if.” Now, CDC is in effect already treating those who merely received two doses as the same as those who are unvaccinated.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/cdcs-new-isolation-guidance-treats-unvaccinated-the-same-as-un-boosted/

    Anyone who doesn’t rush out and lift their sleeve for a booster is willfully driving drunk.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  446. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 1:38 pm

    I’m sad for his family. Of course the full article is behind a paywall so it’s hard to say what it really says. It looks like the article is posted today? Any idea when the good Mr. Weeks died?

    It’s interesting that the Post goes with

    Weeks was being treated at a small, rural hospital and had waited 15 days to be transferred to a larger hospital with better treatment options because facilities throughout Iowa did not have an open bed for him as a result of the latest hospital surge of unvaccinated patients, his children told The Washington Post.

    in the excerpt instead of, maybe, actually supplying real data.

    NPR must be going full anti-vax since they’re claiming, or rather they’re reporting that the U. of Washington is claiming, that hospitalizations will be lower. US News, CBS, and PBS seem to agree.

    Could it be possible that his children are mistaken? Or maybe this is just an outlier? After all some planes do crash.

    Hold on to that fear and keep pushing the death p r 0 n. No sense stopping now.

    frosty (f27e97)

  447. You can get the Washington Post for $10/year. Despite the slant, it’s worth it, if only to see what’s outside the bubble.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  448. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 1:40 pm

    This is one of Time’s tricks too. After a string of comments and giving it the old college try it’s easier to go with “this isn’t that big a deal” when the hole gets too deep. It seemed like a big deal when you thought you had a winning argument.

    frosty (f27e97)

  449. So, you guys who have spent days of your time (and too much of mine) talking about this purported myocarditis that is cutting such a swath through vaccine recipients….

    What number, world-wide would you put on vaccine-caused deaths from myocarditis? 10? 100? 1000? More? What do you base that on?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  450. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 2:37 pm

    Why spend $10 when I get the same quality news from you for free?

    frosty (f27e97)

  451. frosty, that we do not treat your posturing with the gravity you insist on does not mean we did not gave it all it was worth.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  452. Why spend $10 when I get the same quality news from you for free?

    You were the one bit*hing about the paywall.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  453. Maybe I should charge you too.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  454. Just have Rip do the quotes from WaPo.

    😉

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  455. Have you resolved the numbers I asked for, Kevin?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  456. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 2:41 pm

    You put effort into it and then you wanted to drop it when it wasn’t the winner you thought it was.

    Where have I insisted on anything? Now you’re just doing Time’s bit where he makes up things people are saying.

    frosty (f27e97)

  457. The problem is inside ones bubble, Kevin M.

    mg (8cbc69)

  458. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 2:40 pm

    I don’t know the specific numbers. I can look them up but I’m guessing you can too.

    By the way, you’re doing the thing again where you say people said things they didn’t say, aka making stuff up. Who said anything about a swath?

    frosty (f27e97)

  459. BuDuh (4a7846) — 12/28/2021 @ 2:16 pm

    Earlier, I noted how the CDC arbitrarily halved its quarantine guidance from ten days to five.

    I gave the reason @376. It doesn’t sound like a medical reason

    They’re quite open about it

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/27/world/cdc-quarantine-isolation-guidelines#quarantine-5-days

    To minimize disruptions as virus cases surge, the C.D.C. halved the recommended isolation period for infected Americans who show no symptoms, to five days. Dr. Anthony Fauci says a vaccination requirement should “seriously be considered” for air travel.

    Published Dec. 27, 2021
    Updated Dec. 28, 2021, 4:36 p.m. ET

    This is the main front page headline in the New York Times today.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  460. R.I.P. John Madden

    Icy (6abb50)

  461. R.I.P. John Madden

    He ran the clock out.

    Ex-Raiders coach, pitchman & NFL broadcast color man joins CBS chums Summerall & Brookshier for eternal play-by-play from The Big Booth in the sky.

    No Howard Cosell he. Nor a Chuck Noll.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  462. This remains one of the most memorable and famous football plays in NFL history: Noll’s Steelers immaculately denying Madden’s Raiders the win- 49 years ago this month. Watched this real time at the holidays w/my late father and late grandfather–Steeler fans by birth; a treasured moment:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHIXFKrrUhA

    ‘John Madden, coach of the 1972 Raiders, has said that he will never get over the play…’ source – wiki

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  463. R.I.P. Harry Reid

    Debts and deficits: you can’t take ’em with you.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  464. The Madden Brand will live a life of its own.
    RIP Coach

    mg (8cbc69)

  465. Another ‘worked closely with Joe Biden’ senator gone.

    Somebody upstairs -or perhaps from the basement in Joe’s case- is trying to tell him something.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  466. TALLAHASSEE, FL—According to experts, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s COVID policies are so bad they are starting to cause skyrocketing COVID infection rates in leftist states.

    “COVID is on the rise in New York and California,” said Dr. Fauci. “I spoke with SCIENCE just this morning, and it told me that the real culprit here is Ron DeSantis.”

    Fauci and others revealed that the Florida governor’s policies are so bad and permissive and hands-off that they have caused COVID to spike in Left-wing states, even though those states are obediently following the SCIENCE.

    “This is just horrible,” said Fauci. “Somehow, DeSantis has diabolically figured out how to reduce COVID rates in his state by giving his people freedom, which has the strange effect of infecting leftist states in record numbers. HE MUST BE STOPPED!” Fauci’s eyes then rolled back into his head and he began uttering an ancient Sumerian tongue to find out what SCIENCE wanted next.

    https://babylonbee.com/news/experts-desantis-policies-so-bad-hes-now-infecting-record-numbers-in-california-and-new-york

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  467. @472 That Sumerian chant might have been when he got the update on the quarantine guidelines

    frosty (f27e97)

  468. @471 You think Biden remembers Reid? I’d be surprised if he could get through two complete sentences describing him without a teleprompter.

    frosty (f27e97)

  469. Maybe they can open Yucca Mountain now.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  470. @415, FWO, I agree that this time the run up is being driven by different factors. But the steep increase leading up to 2020 was pretty was large by historical standards. Then covid hits and housing starts drop leading to another run up in price. I don’t think we’ll get the same thing we got 10 years ago, but I do think there are significant risks here.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  471. Reaper is reaping tonight.

    urbanleftbehind (c073c9)

  472. Kevin, I think the data comparing reduced hospitalization and deaths among the vaccinated of all age groups (in the hundreds of thousands already) with very low rate of side effects from the vaccine supports the argument that pushing vaccination has, on balance, been a net positive. It’s good public health policy so far. But we shouldn’t pretend that side effects don’t exist when the data shows otherwise any more then we should treat these incidents as more common or weighty then they are. Most things have trade offs and we should acknowledge them, take appropriate steps to help and compensate people who are tragically harmed by ones associated with vaccines.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  473. R.I.H. Harry Reid

    Icy (6abb50)

  474. Here’s a surprise: “people with covid jabs have been less likely to die of other causes”.

    Perhaps because they take better care of themselves, generally?

    (I don’t have a subscription to the Economist, or even that issue, so I can’t provide more info. Maybe tomorrow I’ll see if I can find the original study.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  475. People who are laden with “comorbidities” fare worse than people who are otherwise healthy? That is a surprise!

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  476. (WEAR) — Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo claims that the federal government is preventing the distribution of monoclonal antibody treatments in the U.S.

    In a letter to Department of Health and Human Services, Ladapo says that a dramatic reduction to the supply of monoclonal antibodies emerged shorty after Florida surpassed a 100,000 treatment milestone.

    Ladapo says in the letter, federal agencies should not control or limit options to combat COVID-19.

    “The federal government is actively preventing the effective distribution of monoclonal antibody treatments in the U.S,” Ladapo said. The sudden suspension of multiple monoclonal antibody therapy treatments from distribution to Florida removes a health care provider’s ability to decide the best treatment options for their patients in this state. This shortsightedness is especially evident given that the federal government effectively prohibited states from purchasing these monoclonal antibodies and serving their populations directly.”

    https://weartv.com/news/local/florida-surgeon-general-claims-federal-government-limiting-monoclonal-antibody-treatment

    The 81 Million and their death panels approve.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  477. I do think, and this may surprise some, that we need to all step back from the barricades on the Covid thing. One size fits all rules, sanitation theater, and mass coercion are as much of a problem as the naive cynicism and disinformation on the other side.

    Yes, we need to insist that people whose jobs involve close contact with vulnerable people (e.g. chemotherapy nurses) or constant contact with many people (e.g. taxi drivers) take measures to protect those they serve. If they cannot or will not, there are other jobs. But that does not mean that we need to put the same rules on, say, firemen or lighthouse operators.

    No, we do not have to get everyone to agree (as if we could). Yes, we need to get the information out and if some insist on swilling Purell anyway, well, Vaya con Dios. Most won’t. While I would prefer that people all got vaccinated as that would make things easier, everybody won’t and attempting to coerce everyone will have (has had) negative consequences.

    Since I believe that my vaccination will protect me from the worst of this thing, I do not need you to protect yourself. The mask thing is beyond silly at this point (if you are vaccinated, you really don’t need it and if you aren’t it won’t help you). So we come to the point where it’s like flu shots. I get them, and don’t get the flu, my wife will not and gets the flu 3 times each ad every year. And I keep my mouth shut, except that once a year I tell her I am going to get my flu shot and she’s welcome to come along (and yes, she got the Covid shots).

    I will probably still get a bit pissy about having to pay for the extreme measures it might require to keep the unvaccinated alive if they get it, but life is too short to spend a lot of time doing that. I may also share my opinion about vaccination when someone says something particularly stupid, but I’ve said my piece for the most part.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  478. Perhaps because they take better care of themselves, generally?

    This is what I mean when I talk about covariables and statistics. Trying to use one statistic to explain a complex outcome is generally crap. There are people who are rigorous about self-care. They take their pills on time and they wash their hands after peeing and all those things. And they end up with — statistically — better health. But some of them smoke cigarettes, too, so it’s hard to generalize.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  479. 425. Time123 (9f42ee) — 12/28/2021 @ 11:05 am

    Even after the introduction of New variants the vaccine is still very effective at reducing cases of Covid infection.

    On the radio tonight Betsy McCaughey (pronounced McCoy) tried to claim – well what she actually claimed that someone vaccinated was just as capable of passing along the virus as somebody unvaccinated. She was saying all those restrictions on who can and cannot go into restaurants were ridiculous for that reason. But there’s nothing that says that the cases are identical even though the CDC said both vaccinated an unvaccinated people need the same quarantine provisions.

    People don’t understand much. They can’t follow the arguments. They can’t tell the difference between a plausoble argument and something that amounts to a hoax. Half truths are all mixed in. Everywhere. Including from the government. And then you’ve got some people spreading deliberate lies.

    Last night on the radio a woman called up said she was a pharmacist for 35 years and thought the reason for all those positive Covid tests was they were testing antibodies! No they are not.They do not measure immunity.

    Somebody’s going to mail me material – too much to say over the telephone – about Dr. Zelenko (which I know) and others plus maybe a list of websites. Thinks our computer club president was wrong to get three vaccinations. What I can say is that everyone is wrong but the anti-vaxxers etc are even wronger.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  480. Harry Reid died? Did he announce he had cancer?

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  481. In a letter to Department of Health and Human Services, Ladapo says that a dramatic reduction to the supply of monoclonal antibodies emerged shorty after Florida surpassed a 100,000 treatment milestone.

    Well, I would certainly want to limit the use of these drugs to people who need them, and maybe that’s what they’re doing. There are those that would take them “just in case” and, as we discovered with antibiotics, many doctors do not like to tell their patients “No” when their patients are being stupid.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  482. she actually claimed that someone vaccinated was just as capable of passing along the virus as somebody unvaccinated.

    This is untrue, of course. They CAN pass the virus, but since the virus will have less success, and therefore the body will have less virus to disseminate (and may not disseminate any) AND the viruss will be be eradicated quicker by the typical vaccinated person, “just as capable” is a lie, at least in the inference.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  483. If Regeneron does not sell millions and millions of monoclonal antibodies to the taxpayers, how is it going to give another $11 million in payola to DeSantis?

    And a related question, does Ladapo not wear a mask for the same reason he does not wear underwear? Things gotta breathe?

    nk (1d9030)

  484. Have you resolved the numbers I asked for, Kevin?

    Show me what numbers you mean.

    As I stated, you responded to a qualitative statement with a demand for “numbers” which is kinda silly. It’s like I say “the color is purple” and you demand I show my math.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  485. Again:

    WHAT numbers? I said:

    Fun fact: modern medicine keeps people alive with all kinds of ailments. People who would continue to live had they not contracted Covid are indeed “killed by Covid.”

    You want to assign numbers to that non-numerical statement, go right ahead. I guess you mean “How many people does modern medicine keep alive?” but it’s not really a statistic.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  486. Or perhaps 800,000 will do. I suspect not though.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  487. (WEAR) — Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo claims that the federal government is preventing the distribution of monoclonal antibody treatments in the U.S.

    That;s not news.

    They did it because the Regeneron and Eli Lilly antibodies supposedly do not work against Omicron.

    Two questions:

    1) Is that a completely established fact for both of them? (if it were you would be able to say WHY they no longer work – for instance the part of the virus targeted has mutated. I haven’t read that. Days go by and I haven’t read any further explanation, which causes me to wonder if it is 100% true ad maybe one of them at least has some effect)

    2) What about the, at least, say 5% or 10% of the cases that are still delta? There’s a quick and dirty way to test for whether or not a Covid infection is Omicron. And then there’s the way they have not allowed substitute monoclonal antibodies to be manufactured and used without extensive testing. Betsy McCaughey says she calls the FDA the Fiddle and Delay Agency (this is a decades old problem)

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  488. Statements from Florida’s Surgeon General is not news.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  489. Monoclonal antibodies are gene therapy, aren’t they? Alex? Alex Jones? Where are you?

    nk (1d9030)

  490. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/16/regeneron-developing-antibodies-to-target-omicron-.html

    Of course it will take nine months or so for that to be approved even for emergency use.

    CEO Leonard Schleifer told CNBC Regeneron plans to conduct clinical trials on the new antibodies in the first quarter of 2022.

    Schleifer said Regeneron is working with the Food and Drug Administration to get the next generation of antibodies approved as efficiently as possible.

    Key points for me:

    1) This gets told to the financial/business press.

    2) first clinical trials by the end of March is not fast.

    3) They need to work with the FDA to have any hope.

    And use of small doses of neutralyzing monoclonal antibodies as a prophylactic? The companies gave up trying last year. Or delivering them without IVs? Too much work to try to get that approved.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  491. BuDuh (4a7846) — 12/28/2021 @ 8:07 pm

    Statements from Florida’s Surgeon General is not news.

    What’s not news is that the the federal government is preventing the distribution of monoclonal antibody treatments.

    They have a reason, but it is not 100%

    At a minimum, the old ones still work against some cases of Covid and you can tell which by using a test in an off label way, and second there are the GSK antibodies which work.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  492. Ok.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  493. Statements from Florida’s Surgeon General is not news. It’s a toe jam licker licking DeSantis’s toe jam. Which is why DeSantis appointed him Florida’s Surgeon General.

    nk (1d9030)

  494. nk (1d9030) — 12/28/2021 @ 8:08 pm

    Monoclonal antibodies are gene therapy, aren’t they? Alex? Alex Jones? Where are you?

    They are manufactured outside of the body by genetic engineering. So are mRNA vaccines. A lot of things can now be made to order.

    I would like A;ex Jones questioned about Trump’s scheduled appearance at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. What does he know about that, and if true, when did he find out Trump would not, in fact, show up there?

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  495. “Texas runs out of monoclonal antibody treatment effective against omicron“

    https://www.thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/587466-texas-runs-out-of-monoclonal-antibody-treatment-effective-against

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  496. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 7:38 pm

    Yes, I’m surprised. At least we can agree on this much.

    frosty (f27e97)

  497. Were I to contract Covid, I would be interested in the Pfizer pill, but not the Merck pill. The FDA has approved both, but stresses that the Merck pill is a last resort in life-threatening cases, possibly due to its potential as a carcinogen.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  498. Yes, I’m surprised. At least we can agree on this much.

    I am also done with the subject up above.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  499. Good article on the Merck molnupiravir pill and the FDA approval

    In a clinical trial, a five-day course of the pill was shown to be only modestly effective. The data also showed it could cause birth defects if used in pregnancy.

    Another concern raised at the advisory committee for molnupiravir was that the drug might lead to new variants of SARS-CoV-2 because of its mechanism of action.

    It works by scrambling the DNA of the virus, and perhaps the DNA of other cells in the body. Some people worry about unintentional recombinant DNA.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  500. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 7:52 pm

    You gave a very good description statistics and the problem with complexities. And you’re doing a little of that here.

    It’s not so simple as the vaccinated person will always have less of the virus than the unvaxxed or that they will always shed less. This will depend on the person and their immune system and other factors. It’s possible for an unvaxxed person with a healthy immune system to shed less of the virus than a vaxxed person with an unhealthy immune system. The vax isn’t a magic talisman that protects all equally and the unvaxxed all are equally unprotected. It’s also a misconception that asymptotic people don’t transmit the virus and it’s a bigger misconception as it relates to the vaxxed. All people don’t shed the virus to the degree that they are sick or have symptoms. The situation is more complex than that. It’s true that a specific person will usually shed more in relation to their current viral load but that doesn’t always correlate to when that individual is the most ill. And comparing across individuals is not so simple as this person is sicker than that person so the first person is always shedding more.

    But that’s also not the key issue. In order to be “just as capable” the relative difference isn’t that important. What’s important is whether the vaxxed person can spread the virus and infect other people. This is a minimum standard. Not a statement of equality. If a vaxxed person can be infected (they can) and can shed the virus (they can) then they are (just as) capable of spreading the virus.

    It’s not correct to read just as capable as spreads just as much (although with omicron this is looking like the case).

    frosty (f27e97)

  501. I can’t believe all the tiresome hairsplitting and snark on this thread. I suspect that aggrieved Trump fans lie behind much of it.

    I always wondered why people in that famous Stanford experiment could be so cruel to fellow human beings, but I’m beginning to understand.

    If it keeps up, I’m going to start blocking people. I’m not going to name names, but if I don’t respond to you in the future you’ll know why.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  502. I guess you mean “How many people does modern medicine keep alive?” but it’s not really a statistic.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/28/2021 @ 7:59 pm

    It’s not? You mean we can’t look at infant mortality numbers over the last 500 years and put numbers around modern medicine. Or we can’t look at an area today that lacks 1st world standards of medical treatment and compare things like life expectancy?

    It sounds like you’re trying to say the number of people who would have lived had they not gotten covid is a non-numerical number.

    frosty (f27e97)

  503. norcal (3d2db9) — 12/28/2021 @ 9:06 pm

    I think the discussion would be a little different if the context wasn’t “some people” need to be forced to do the right thing because they are horrible people. Self-righteous hate isn’t going to produce a lot of tolerance and go along to get along type of discussions.

    frosty (f27e97)

  504. frosty (f27e97) — 12/28/2021 @ 9:23 pm

    I understand, but people can disagree in a civil way. What I see here is that one person says something a little bit pointed, and then somebody else responds in a very disproportional way, and keeps at it like a dog with a bone.

    I don’t think it serves anyone well. Few are persuaded, and both sides get in a sour mood.

    The high road beckons.

    norcal (3d2db9)

  505. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Tuesday significantly revised downward the estimate of the percentage of new COVID-19 infections in the U.S. caused by the omicron variant of the virus.

    According to agency data, omicron accounted for about 59 percent of all U.S. infections as of Dec. 25. Previously, the CDC said the omicron variant comprised 73 percent of all cases for the week ending Dec. 18. But that number has now been revised to 22.5 percent of all cases.

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/587506-cdc-lowers-estimate-of-omicron-prevalence-in-us

    Maybe that is why Florida’s Surgeon General wants the OG monoclonal antibodies.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  506. It’s not?

    No. Things that haven’t happened are hard to record, as are things that are going as planned.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  507. Norcal, you’re absolutely correct. This wasn’t my finest hour.

    Time123 (97645e)

  508. For those interested in the general question of health, may I recommend Leonard Sagan’s Health of Nations.

    From the book jacket of my copy:

    Modern people are more resilient, better educated, more resourceful, more trusting, and more supportive. And these qualities, seldom acknowledged in traditional medical analyses, can explain much of the health and survival of modern people.

    (Note that says “much”, not “all”, or even “most”.)

    The rise in life expectancy in modernizing nations began before almost all modern medicine, before antibiotics, before scientific nutrition, and before almost all vaccines. Reasonably accurate data begins to be available in the 19th century, in a few modernizing places. Life expectancy rose from about 40 years to about 50 years between 1840 and 1900, in those places.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  509. #511 norcal – You will probably see my point in the previous comment, but others may not. Being more civilized — as you urge — is good for our health.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  510. BuDuh (4a7846) — 12/28/2021 @ 11:28 pm

    The CDC has generally done a bad job with data. This is only the latest example, and one of the few that made the news in any big way. I wouldn’t trust the 22% number more than the 73% other than to say we’ve probably got a decent amount of delta still going around.

    frosty (f27e97)

  511. It looks like the CDC is having to defend its new guidelines in the face of criticism from people worried about asymptomatic spread.

    We’re starting to see a turn and I expect more of this “everyone will die” from the people really committed to covid being the new normal.

    Omicron is changing the situation.

    frosty (f27e97)

  512. No RIP for Sarah Weddington (76). Argued for abortion in Roe v. Wade.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  513. If You Like All The New Progressive Federal Judges, Thank Trump For Sabotaging Georgia
    …….
    The former president’s sabotage of two Georgia Senate runoffs in early January with his endless lies about “massive fraud” having cost him reelection almost certainly cost the two Republican incumbents their seats, giving Democrats control of the chamber and the ability to push through judicial nominations without a single GOP vote.

    “Trump handed it to them,” said Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond in Virginia who studies federal judicial appointments, adding that Biden’s record-tying string of 40 district and appellate court judges in his first year would have been impossible in a Republican-controlled Senate. “They just wouldn’t have had the votes. I don’t know what they would have done.”
    ………
    Among presidents in the last half century, only Republican Ronald Reagan was able to put as many judges on the federal bench in his first year. Trump, for example, was able to get only 18 seated in his first year.
    ……..
    ……..GOP voters stayed home in droves while Democrat Stacey Abrams’ massive turnout effort helped Raphael Warnock defeat Loeffler and Jon Ossoff overtake Perdue.

    According to an analysis by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 752,000 Georgians who cast ballots on Nov. 3, 2020, failed to do so on Jan. 5, 2021, with a disproportionate number of those no-shows coming from Republican strongholds, particularly the two areas of the state where Trump had held rallies. Meanwhile, 228,000 residents who had not voted in the general election did so in the runoff, most of whom were from Black and other minority communities, and nearly half of whom were younger than 35.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  514. Anyone want to lay odds on whether Science tells Biden to impose vax passports for domestic air travel?

    frosty (f27e97)

  515. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/29/2021 @ 9:17 am

    I wonder if those numbers are compiled by the same people working on data collection for the CDC

    frosty (f27e97)

  516. Sarah Jessica Parker Is ‘Livid,’ ‘Heartbroken’ Over Chris Noth Allegations

    “What do they have that I don’t?”, she sobbed plaintively.

    nk (1d9030)

  517. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/29/2021 @ 9:17 am

    I wonder if those numbers are compiled by the same people working on data collection for the CDC

    frosty (f27e97) — 12/29/2021 @ 9:26 am

    Data source.

    It is clear that the two Republican Senate seats flipped, whatever the reason. Or do you believe there was massive voter fraud in Georgia that caused the seats to flip?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  518. Fresh strawberry cheesecake $3.99 for a 4 oz slice at the Jewel bakery. Chocolate eclairs holding steady at three for $5.00.

    nk (1d9030)

  519. #508
    “I suspect that aggrieved Trump fans lie behind much of it.”
    Norcal.

    Good morning.
    I see myself as an aggrieved American. I’m also a person that has to work on not being so reactive.

    Double vaxxed, boostered, don’t want to give anyone COVID. Not afraid at all of unvaccinated people, they’ve made their free choice and I’m empathetic to those who get very sick and maybe die of COVID, but they put themselves into play and the reaper is going to get his.

    My reactive brain also measures bullcrap generously. The constant moving of goalposts, political posturing in 2020 completely killed my support of the COVID politburo and media. People who failed “up” were elevated even further if their politics and narrative skills were found “righteous”.

    When I’ve written here on COVID, CDC is a resource I quote. I expect science to adapt as more information surfaces, but the CDC has been all over the place, the more I quote them, the more I realize they keep moving the goalposts. I’m tired of mask theater. They outfit our President in a mask to walk on the beach with his dog, tin horn politicians very much have shown us that they consider themselves to be elite and not subject to their own rules.
    That strikes a chord of rebellion in me that has nothing to do with Trump in this COVID problem. (The caveat is that there was a spirit of rebelliousness that was fed by Trumps victory over Hillary. I laughed about the shocked face people for weeks)

    steveg (e81d76)

  520. 519 /Rip M-

    My money was on NJ Rob or mg with the RIH* on the Roe lawyer, but in all sincerity congrats and joyous holidays!

    *R*t I* H*ll…a sobriquet most often used by gang members upon the news of a rival gang members death.

    urbanleftbehind (1bbacd)

  521. Tom Berenger: You’re not a good guy at all!
    Patrick Wayne: I’m a lawyer, you idiot!
    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/rustlers_rhapsody/quotes/

    nk (1d9030)

  522. BTW, the letters in Tom Berenger can be arranged to spell “Bergen Metro” while those in Patrick Wayne form “wacky painter”.

    nk (1d9030)

  523. Estimates of the percent of Covid cases in the United States that are Omicron vary widely, and may be, or were recently, different in different places – all the more reason not to cut off the supply of the assumed ineffective monoclonal antibodies.

    A column by Steve Cuozzo in today’s New York Post said the CDC on Tuesday (yesterday?) revised its estimate of 78% (nationwide, for the week ending December 18 from, 78% to 23% and the current estimate (for the week ending December 25?) is 59%

    https://nypost.com/2021/12/28/defiant-gothamites-show-covid-panics-days-may-finally-be-numbered

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  524. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/29/2021 @ 9:36 am

    What everyone needs to worry about is

    “I don’t feel anybody was worth voting for. They’re all crooked in my opinion,” said Mary Lambert, a 39-year-old from Ringgold.

    and

    “What good would it have done to vote? They have votes that got changed,” Roland said. “I don’t know if I’ll ever vote again.”

    D/nevertrump think both of those are to their advantage and I think they’re mistaken. But both groups have a very interesting view on what’s to their advantage.

    Massive voter fraud? I think that’s just a coded trigger for D’s and nevertrump. It’s impressive how agitated it gets them.

    Instead I’d say I’ve got about as much confidence in that process that I have in the CDC numbers. After all that process involved 81m people electing a guy who looks like he couldn’t tell you what day it is and whose best quote lately has been “Let’s go Brandon, I agree”.

    frosty (f27e97)

  525. I see infections persistently being treated almost universally as a binary choice – yes or no – and completely ignoring viral dose and test numbers even though the PCR test will give you a number.

    Viral dose matters!

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  526. Insider trading on Covid, with the blonde denying it just slightly more credibly than the chicken guy who barely bothered to deny it at all, might have had something to do with them losing, too.

    nk (1d9030)

  527. I think that Joe Biden knows what day it is, but he didn’t know last week – was not up to speed, and faked it – what “Let’s Go Brandon” meant and replied: “I agree”

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  528. Doctor complins about CDC errors, but makes an obvious error himself, too:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/28/opinion/covid-isolation-guidelines.html

    We are even seeing more and more people who are boostered getting infected. We cannot keep asking people to isolate for mandatory periods in the hope that Covid will go away. We have to find ways for living with the coronavirus, in which we recognize that for many, it is a mild infection from which they quickly recover. For others, Covid is a serious illness for which precaution is warranted. The biggest difference between those groups is immunization.

    No, the most important difference is viral dose. Even if immunization (or prior infection) prevents it from getting too bad.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  529. Biden is going to remove the absolute ban on tourists from South Africa, or who also visited South Africa, after the end of the year. (probably replaced with vaccines or testing, like other countries)

    Meanwhile NYC imposed a vaccine mandate for children aged at least five for visits to many tourist attractions. Even though they weren’t available in many countries. Even though children usually don;t get sick and don’t pass it on.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  530. I understand, but people can disagree in a civil way. …

    The high road beckons.
    norcal (3d2db9) — 12/28/2021 @ 11:06 pm

    Can they and does it? Maybe we’ll return to something like that.

    I generally agree with the sentiments, concerns, and frustrations expressed here.

    But civil debate and the high road seems to be very subjective.

    frosty (f27e97)

  531. @532 The binary choice problem is a persistent problem across multiple issues with covid. For example, the average person does not understand that the numbers we’re being given are approximations of probability distributions that are themselves contingent on underlying factors. They also don’t understand that those numbers are then used to build estimates and models with large levels of uncertainty that is being ignored.

    To many people want easy answers and they want things in terms of good guys and bad guys. To many people in positions of authority are too willing to play into that game for their own personal reasons.

    frosty (f27e97)

  532. If You Like All The New Progressive Federal Judges, Thank Trump For Sabotaging Georgia

    I thank Trump for that every day. OTOH, the GOP candidates were not exactly Solomons.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  533. The newly updated CDC guidelines don’t require testing at the end of isolation because PCR tests can stay positive for up to 12 weeks, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told “Good Morning America” Wednesday. “So we would have people in isolation for a very long time if we were relying on PCRs,” Walensky explained.

    https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2021/12/29/cdc-director-drops-bombshell-calling-covid-testing-protocol-into-question-n498778

    Plenty of great questions at the link for the 81 million strong Walensky.

    Ultimately the erroneous breathalyzer results are putting drunk drivers everywhere.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  534. Ta-da!!!!

    Everyone, both high roading and low roading, has won a day without BuDuh!

    🎉

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  535. Massive voter fraud? I think that’s just a coded trigger for D’s and nevertrump. It’s impressive how agitated it gets them.

    Trump seems to believe it, or is his belief insincere?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  536. #540

    People will be promoted over this. The last guy to lose his job over bad performance in the public sector was Trump. Everybody else seems to get promotions,raises and pensions.
    Remember Comey telling us about the very serious consequences of signing off on an improper FISA application?
    Clinesmith just got reinstated. Reinstated is a great word for what happened. The State welcomed him back into the State for his distinguished and clever service to the State

    steveg (e81d76)

  537. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 12/29/2021 @ 12:47 pm

    You’re asking the wrong person. I’m not the Trump whisperer.

    frosty (f27e97)

  538. We have false epistemological uncertainty. The head of the WHO is still saying Omicron may be as bad or worse than delta.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-12-29/who-chief-worried-about-tsunami-of-omicron-delta-cases

    Meanwhile:

    https://www.newser.com/story/315021/rise-of-omicron-could-be-good-news-against-delta.html`

    …But a new study suggests a future in which omicron is the dominant variant of COVID-19 might be less scary than one in which delta dominates, the New York Times reports. “Omicron is likely to push delta out,” says a virologist at the South Africa research institute that led the study. Other scientists and doctors say they’ve seen that playing out in real time, with delta cases going down as omicron cases go up. Better yet, the new study says those who’ve had omicron appear to get some level of antibody protection against delta, though more research must be done. If omicron continues to lead to less severe illness and fewer hospitalizations and deaths, that’s positive news, experts say.

    They don’t want to accept the good news, which has been obvious since the first or second week of December.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  539. Those who seek the high road do not seek to identify trolls. They identify themselves. They do not live to win every point in every argument. That is left to the high school debate team, which is graded on that. They do not endlessly fact check so that they can find an error and thereby say “liar liar, pants on fire”. They instead make their argument, share their link, answer someone’s point, zip out their witticism, and then get out of the way. If they are invited to conversation, conversation is fine. If they are invited to their own rhetorical hanging, they demur. If they lose their composure and run afoul of decency, they apologize and maybe take a time out.

    The high road is a very high road. It may require marijuana (medicinal, of course). It may require psychotherapy for those who walk its path. And it will never eliminate the parallel low road.

    Appalled (1a17de)

  540. The newly updated CDC guidelines don’t require testing at the end of isolation because PCR tests can stay positive for up to 12 weeks

    But they don’t usually. They do test positive past the point of infectiveness. They find virus fragments.

    And the other test?

    https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/12/29/how-well-do-lateral-flow-tests-for-covid-19-work

    Two big advantages of lateral-flow (or antigen) tests are their speed and simplicity. They provide results within ten to 30 minutes, and can be easily performed outside a laboratory, unlike PCR tests, which look for the virus’s entire genetic sequence rather than its antigens and can take days for a result. They are also cheaper than PCR tests (in Britain they are free for the public; in France chemists sell them for a little over €4 each ($4.50), those sold in America are often pricier than in Europe). To judge their accuracy, scientists look at two elements: specificity (the proportion of tests that correctly return negative results for people who do not have covid-19) and sensitivity (the proportion of tests that correctly return positive results for people who do). Diverging data from various studies have prevented a consensus forming on their use for testing and tracing cases.

    An evaluation of a rapid antigen test carried out by America’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention found it caught around one-third as many asymptomatic covid-19 cases as PCRs did. //

    But asymptomatic is also low or no transmission. Many coronavirus related stores from the Economist

    https://www.economist.com/coronavirus-pandemic

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  541. Sammy Finkelman (02a146) — 12/29/2021 @ 1:19 pm

    We knew the WHO was making political statements and not scientific ones back when they worked so hard to cover for the CCP and the WIV. Really, we had ample evidence prior to COVID.

    frosty (f27e97)

  542. Breaking-

    Jury Has Reached a Verdict in Ghislaine Maxwell Trial

    Guilty on five of six counts of sex trafficking.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  543. The most recent “Spenser” novel (now being written by Ace Atkins) is not-very-loosely based on the Epstein-Maxwell sex ring.

    https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Parkers-Someone-Watch-Spenser-ebook/dp/B0852PG66H

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  544. I am constantly reading how the Hispanics will vote Republican in a larger number than usual.Will that have the democrats think about finishing that wall.

    mg (8cbc69)

  545. Will the Men and Women who abused these girls be brought up on charges? If not, Why the fluck not?

    mg (8cbc69)

  546. So, what happens when evidence shows that Xi intentionally released this, so that China could gain economic advantage? I suspect that governments everywhere would bury the information as deeply as possible. It also seems like a fine way to sell books by alleging same.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  547. I am constantly reading how the Hispanics will vote Republican in a larger number than usual.Will that have the democrats think about finishing that wall.

    That would certainly change things here in New Mexico since most Hispanics have been here for generations.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  548. @555. Nothing will happen because no matter how much evidence exists it will always remain a conspiracy theory. No one wants a war with China or to even rock the boat.

    It’s not like anyone actually believes this crossed over at a wet market. The important part is finding out who will say 2+2=5 and who won’t.

    frosty (f27e97)

  549. “She was so famed, my son, for all manner of generosity that when my grandfather remodeled Bellegarde, and erected the Hugonet wing of the present château, he sealed up in the cornerstone, just as people sometimes place there the relics of a saint, both of Mademoiselle de Lorme’s garters. Probably there was some salutary story connected with his acquiring of them; for my pious grandfather cared nothing for such vanities as jeweled garters, his mind being wholly set upon higher things.”

    “I wish we knew that story,” said Florian.

    “But nobody does. My grandfather was discreet.”
    James Branch Cabell, The High Place: A Comedy of Disenchantment (1923), p. 21

    Now there was a master of the double entendre. He was actually prosecuted for obscenity, in America!, for them.

    nk (1d9030)

  550. Dr. Anthony Fauci’s Golden Parachute Will Exceed $350,000 Per Year – The Largest In U.S. Federal Government History

    On Christmas Eve, Dr. Anthony Fauci turned 81. However, he is not retiring just yet. If he did, Fauci would reap the largest federal retirement package in U.S. history.

    Our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com estimate Dr. Fauci’s annual retirement would exceed $350,000. Thereafter, his pension and benefits would continue to increase through annual cost-of-living adjustments. Fauci has 55 years of service as a federal employee.

    For the second year in a row, Fauci was the most highly compensated federal employee and out earned the president, four star generals, and roughly 4.3 million of his colleagues. As director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), Fauci earned $434,312 in 2020, the latest year available, up from $417,608 in 2019.
    ……..
    Additionally, Dr. Fauci is likely eligible for an annuity, paid out by the federal government. After serving 10 years, federal employees are eligible for “2 percent of [their] high-3 average salary for each year.” Dr. Fauci has more than surpassed the 10-year-minimum work requirement, and if he retired last year he could have drawn down at least an extra $8,344 a year (($1,251,545/3) x 2% = $8,344). If he leaves at the end of this month, that figure is likely closer to $8,575 a year in annuity payments, assuming his salary did not go down in 2021.

    While federal benefit calculations are lucrative for someone in Fauci’s long-serving role, there is a potential twist…

    Dr. Fauci was appointed in 2000 to the Ready Reserve Corps. The U.S. Code contains some different retirement calculations for Corps officers. Corps officers’ retirement pay involves calculating the top 36 months (vs. CSRS’s top 3 years), which may or may not make a difference, assuming Fauci’s long service and service credits as a federal employee qualify him for retirement under this system.
    ………
    Why not retire, ABC’s Jonathan Karl recently asked Dr. Fauci:

    “There’s no way I’m going to walk away from this until we get this under control. I mean, that’s the purpose of what we do. That’s – that’s our mission in life. In the middle of it, I’m not going to walk away.

    “You know, we’re in a war, Jon. It’s kind of like we’re halfway through World War II, and you decide, well, I think I’ve had enough of this. I’m walking away.

    “You can’t do that. You’ve got to finish it — and we’re going to finish this and get back to normal.”

    That echoes what he told reporters last month:

    “I’m the head of an institute that actually played the major role in the development of the vaccines that have saved now millions of lives from COVID-19,” he told CBS’ “Face the Nation” in an interview. “I’m the director of the institute that has now been very important in the basic research in leading to the drugs that will now have an important impact in the treatment of COVID-19. That’s what I do.

    “So, I’m going to keep doing that until this COVID-19 outbreak is in the rearview mirror, regardless of what anybody says about me, or wants to lie and create crazy fabrications because of political motivations[.]”

    …….. Dr. Fauci was approved for a “permanent pay adjustment” in excess of his regular salary in December 2004, to “appropriately compensate him for the level of responsibility… especially as it relates to his work on biodefense research activities.”

    From 2004 through 2007, Fauci received a 68-percent pay increase from $200,000- to $335,000-a year. This award was permanent and carried forward through 2020.
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  551. urbanleftbehind (1bbacd) — 12/29/2021 @ 9:59 am

    She’ll end up where she chose. I hope she asked God for forgiveness and accepted Him before she died. She foolishly argued on the side of Satan. The Court was the one that made the illegal decision.

    But thanks for thinking of me this Christmas season.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  552. If You Like All The New Progressive Federal Judges, Thank Trump For Sabotaging Georgia

    looks like the plan to help biden win had a flaw, but those who brainstormed the plan aren’t to blame

    JF (e1156d)

  553. @560:

    The average compensation (pay + benefits) for federal employees, counting the military but not counting the Postal Service is well over $100,000/year. The data is available from the BEA.

    In 2012, the average wage + benefits was $108,897 for all of the federal government. It was slightly less, but still over $100K for the military. I’m sure it’s gone up but I haven’t the energy to go through that all again.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  554. 521. Too soon to tell.

    Meanwhile, they are deliberating on whether they can change the definition of “fully vaccinated.”

    One obvious problem I see: An totally unvaccinated person could not become fully vaccinated for approximately six months -(and they could even move the goalposts some more by that time, although that’s not very likely))

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  555. Rip Murdock @560.

    Completely wisely, or not, General George C. Marshall got rid of a lot of old generals, and promoted Eisenhower.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  556. Lesko Brandon, CDC Reports 431,567 New Cases of COVID Today

    December 29, 2021 | Sundance | 299 Comments
    Sooner or later the CDC is going to use the word “eleventy” to describe their covid data.

    According to the CDC Website {SEE HERE} there are 431,567 new cases of COVID-19 infection today alone

    … which would explain why the CDC would heel to the corporate community and quickly change the quarantine rules and conditions.

    They can’t have a half a million people per day missing work. Oh, and it’s following the science… or something.

    The vaccinated virtue signalers amid the Branch Covidians must be going bananas.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/12/29/lesko-brandon-cdc-reports-431567-new-cases-of-covid-today/#more-223855

    #DrunkDrivers

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  557. @564. The follow on to that would be even more stress on things like hospital staffing leading to higher numbers of excess deaths from the pandemic and more stories of people dying because the unvaxxed are filling the beds (but totally not because of questionable policy decisions).

    My guess is they’ll say everyone should have 4 shots to stop the virus in 6 months.

    frosty (f27e97)

  558. @566 and @567. But always remember this is because of the unvaxxed. The vaxxed can’t spread the virus.

    In other news, after discovering a rare isotope of uranium they’ve dubbed covidium, physicists have shown that a nuclear reaction can be sustained using fuel rods separated by several feet of lead. When questioned about the experiment they maintained that the other elements that looked like fuel rods were in fact inert and that while the lead isn’t visible it really is there.

    frosty (f27e97)

  559. Isn’t people catching Covid a good thing-build up that natural immunity?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  560. In Israel they are recommending 4 shots now (Israel uses only Pfizer and makes – I think anonymized – medical records available to Pfizer for a study in which all Israeli citizens are enrolled under a deal made by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to assure delivery of supply for Israeli citizens)

    Here is a story (from last week) about different reports of how dangerous Omicron is:

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/319210

    It says Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked said , based on a briefing by the chief of the public health department, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, that seven children died the day before in South Africa from the Omicron variant and that a total of 32 children have died thus far. We must publicize this to the public as much as we can, so that parents understand.”

    This was disputed by by Finance Minister Avidgor Liberman who said that just 12 confirmed deaths from Omicron (of people of all ages) had been recorded worldwide.

    This got, of course, disputed itself, including by Meir Rubin, executive director of the Kohelet Policy Forum who was tapped last year by Bennett to head up the ‘civil coronavirus committee’,
    who said that “thousands” of adults had died in South Africa recently from the Omicron variant, and he citrng a social media post from Twitter.

    But it turns out South Africa does not keep statistics by variant, but only for Covid as a whole.

    It appears, then, that all SARS-CoV-2-related deaths reported in South Africa since late November were claimed to be Omicron fatalities, with Israeli health officials counting all COVID deaths in South Africa in recent weeks as Omicron-related.

    !!!

    And the proof that Omicron has to be less deadly than Delta is that despite the massive spike in cases in South Africa (attributed to Omicron) the average number of deaths per day has remained low.

    By the way, the World Health Organization had to report that the Omicron variant thus far appears to be ‘less severe’ than other strains.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  561. By way of Dr. Gottlieb, Prof. Crotty concludes: “I find the experimental data convincing that Omicron is substantially less able to infect lung cells.”
    Good news.

    Paul Montagu (5de684)

  562. Strong Labor Market in 2021 Faces Down Omicron Threat

    U.S. employers added a record number of jobs in 2021, as a gauge of layoffs fell to a half-century low and available positions surged, but the pace of the labor market’s strong recovery could slow early next year due to the uncertainty posed by the Omicron variant of Covid-19.

    Applications for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, have trended near five-decade lows in recent weeks. Jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 25 fell to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 applications from a revised 206,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said Thursday. That leaves them hovering just above the 188,000 level recorded earlier in December, the lowest level since 1969.

    Last week’s four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility, fell to the lowest level since October 1969.

    Strong job creation has been a cornerstone of 2021’s robust economic growth and would be relied upon to underpin gains next year in the face of headwinds tied to the prolonged pandemic, elevated inflation and supply shortages.
    ………
    Jobless claims could rise in the coming weeks as the Omicron variant makes people nervous about leaving the house to work or shop, triggering layoffs and causing some workers to leave their jobs or delay their return to the workforce.

    So far there are only signs of a modest economic impact due to the variant. Airline flights have been grounded due to lack of crews, hockey and basketball games have been canceled, some businesses have temporarily closed or shifted back to remote work and public schools have moved to online-only in early January. Some economists have downgraded forecasts for growth for early next year.

    Another constraint on employment and economic growth next year could be the shrunken labor force, which has nearly 2.5 million fewer workers than before the pandemic. Job openings exceeded unemployed workers by 3.6 million in October, according to the latest available data from the Labor Department.
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  563. The thing I can’t figure out so far about Omicron is the mortality rate. I haven’t really seen good data. If it’s down to the level of common flu, which is around 0.1%, that’s good, but if it’s ten times more contagious, not good.
    As of right now, the 7-day moving average is 1,148 deaths, which works out to an annualized rate of 419k, which still makes the virus this nation’s 3rd largest killer. Addressing issues like adverse effects from the vaccines seems like small potatoes by comparison.

    Paul Montagu (5de684)

  564. Workers Quit Jobs in Droves to Become Their Own Bosses

    The pandemic has unleashed a historic burst in entrepreneurship and self-employment. Hundreds of thousands of Americans are striking out on their own as consultants, retailers and small-business owners.
    ………
    The number of unincorporated self-employed workers has risen by 500,000 since the start of the pandemic, Labor Department data show, to 9.44 million. That is the highest total since the financial-crisis year 2008, except for this summer. The total amounts to an increase of 6% in the self-employed, while the overall U.S. employment total remains nearly 3% lower than before the pandemic.

    Entrepreneurs applied for federal tax-identification numbers to register 4.54 million new businesses from January through October this year, up 56% from the same period of 2019, Census Bureau data show. That was the largest number on records that date back to 2004. Two-thirds were for businesses that aren’t expected to hire employees.

    This year, the share of U.S. workers who work for a company with at least 1,000 employees has fallen for the first time since 2004, Labor Department data show. Meanwhile, the percentage of U.S. workers who are self-employed has risen to the highest in 11 years. In October, they represented 5.9% of U.S. workers, versus 5.4% in February 2020.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (8dd5e1)

  565. LOL, frosty.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  566. A right-wing radio host said Trump needs an ‘intervention from a friend’ after the former president advocated for the COVID-19 vaccine
    …….
    Wayne Allyn Root, a longtime political commentator and conspiracy theorist, was one of the critics. Root is a Trump supporter and even opened for the former president at a Las Vegas rally in 2018, according to The Daily Beast.

    Speaking with (Alex) Jones, a radio host and conspiracy theorist, on Wednesday, Root praised the former president, saying he considers him a friend, before taking aim at Trump’s vaccine comments.

    “He needs an intervention from a friend because he’s the greatest president of my lifetime. I love him. I will always love him,” Root said of Trump.

    “He’s been right on everything except this issue,” Root added later. “He’s so horribly wrong on this issue.”

    Jones was also among those bashing Trump, saying on his show last week: “Hell, we’re fighting Bill Gates and Fauci and Biden and the new world order and Psaki.”

    “And now we’ve got Trump on their team!” he said later.
    ……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  567. NJRob (da9026) — 12/30/2021 @ 8:42 am

    Best vaccine ever!

    I think part of that could be that the vaccine was targeted against what the Chinese said was the original Wuhan variant and tested against what was probably the later, more deadly, Wuhan variant.

    I think the original, or first, strain was the S strain, and came from the first lab leak, which occured sometime before Seotember 12, 2019, when th viral database of the Wuhan Institute of Virology was ttaken offline, and the later strain is the L strain, and came from the second leak, around December 2, 2019, from the Wuhan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention when it moved to within about 300 yards of the Huanan Wholesale Food Market.

    They told us the S strain was what was prevalent in Wuhan in December, 2019, but really, I think the one which made the epidemic known was the L strain.

    The S strain spread through all of China and reached the outside world first, but it was possible to contain it, and it soon got superseded by the D614G mutation, also called B.1. I think that may be the same thing as the L strain but am not sure. This variant is supposed to have appeared in early 2020 and spread around the world but I think that was already present in Wuhan in December, 2019, and came from the second lab leak.

    I’m actually not sure what strain the vaccine is based on and what variant the Chinese claimed was first, but one thing they are doing is trying to claim the virus started circulating later than it did.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  568. Rip, I am looking for the second part of this from July. Crackpot Victory suggested the virus would behave like it is behaving and she also said that it would help with natural immunity. I found her first looney prediction. I will look a little more for the second. She didn’t demand everyone go lick a toilet seat, only that if you contract the mild version your body can build a more robust defense than the 12 shot program.

    The claim: Viruses never mutate to become more lethal

    As the U.S. faces down the COVID-19 Delta variant – now fast-becoming the nation’s dominant strain – reports of a new Lambda variant that first emerged in Peru in August 2020 are gaining the attention of public health officials worldwide.

    News of this coronavirus variant is concerning, especially what it could mean for new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths, all of which had been declining in the last few months. But one tweet being shared across social media claims new viral strains are nothing to be worried about.

    “One more time, for the folks in the back: In the history of virology, there has never, EVER, been a viral mutation that resulted in a virus that was MORE lethal,” reads a tweet by Dr. Kelly Victory shared in a June 30 Facebook post.

    Victory, a Colorado-based physician known for making false assertions about the pandemic, claims instead that as viruses mutate, they “become more contagious/transmissible and LESS lethal.”

    She repeated this assertion in a comment to USA TODAY and further claimed this common viral path toward increased transmissibility and decreased virulence, or the ability to cause disease or other harm in the host, is “exactly what we have seen with all the COVID-19 mutations thus far.”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/07/14/fact-check-viruses-can-mutate-become-more-deadly/7839167002/

    Tangentially, since the CDC’s Omicron numbers were so seriously out of whack, I wonder how many of the cases over summer were actually Delta? Whatever algorithm they use is questionable now.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  569. Trump and his MAGA horde don’t seem to be the monolith that I have read about here for quite some time.

    Will this dash Trump’s 2024 election stealing hopes?

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  570. Ted Cruz Confuses Washington (State) With Western Australia, Is Widely Mocked

    Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is facing ridicule over a now-deleted tweet that mixed up the state of Washington in the U.S. with Western Australia, a state that is part of Australia.

    The Republican had retweeted a post featuring a screenshot from the Facebook page of the government of Western Australia (WA Government) that appeared to advise a woman that dancing was not permitted at a private New Year’s Eve party at her home. The original tweet did not mention Washington.

    Cruz added his own comment criticizing Washington and Democrat-led states in general but he later deleted the tweet in question. By then, many social media users had seen the post and were mocking Cruz for the error.
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  571. I think the infection rate, over the past two weeks, is probably between 1 in 10 and 1 in 15 New Yorkers.

    And it includes people who got vaccinated and boosters and people who probably got infected before.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  572. On a conspiratorial note, what if the vaccine pushers, after analyzing the rapid drop in efficacy of their potion, decided it was better to push the Delta Surge angle as opposed to admitting that their vaccine wasn’t really working as intended on the original strain?

    With the CDC being all over the place anything is possible.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  573. I guess the point is to ignore the posts he didn’t delete?

    https://twitter.com/tedcruz

    I can see why the libs don’t want Cruz free speaking.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  574. Sammy,

    It’s quite possible that the vaccine targeted a variant that no longer exists.

    But why are we mandating it and acting like it works as anything remotely as was promised?

    NJRob (5243b8)

  575. California Man with AR-15 Style Rifle, Body Armor, and ‘Hit List’ Arrested on His Way to ‘Combat Evil Demons in the White House’: Feds
    ……..
    “(Kuachua Brillion Xiong, 25) began ……talking about his disapproval for government due to the sex abuse of children, some of which that has occurred by President [Joe] Biden,” the (criminal complaint, filed on Dec. 21 in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Iowa and unsealed Wednesday) states.

    During a consented search of the vehicle, deputies found the AR-15 style rifle, body armor, several loaded magazines, and noted that his GPS destination was the White House. Deputies also allegedly found money that was specifically “ear marked for Xiong’s funeral expenses,” leading them to bring him in for questioning.

    In an interview with Secret Service agents, Xiong allegedly said that his job at a grocery store in Merced, California was merely “cover” until he was “called upon by God to ‘combat evil demons in the White House,’” the complaint states.

    “XIONG believes that he is the only person remaining who can free the United States of evil and it is necessary for him to kill those in positions of power. It is at this time XIONG began assembling the equipment needed to carry out his plan to kill those in power: an assault rifle, assault rifle magazines, ammunition, body armor, medical supplies, dark clothing, grappling hook, food, and cash,” the document continues.

    Xiong allegedly allowed authorities access to his phone which contained detailed notes dating back to October that appeared to show how he meticulously planned his excursion to Washington, D.C. He also allegedly provided agents with a drawing of the White House grounds and what he perceived to be a “weak spot” in the security. He said he identified the spot during his “pre-attack research,” per the complaint.
    ………
    “XIONG stated that he used the mobile application TikTok to download videos to his cellular phone. XIONG used the downloaded videos to compile a list of evil individuals he intended to kill, which included but is not limited to the following politicians and public figures: Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and Mark Zuckerberg. XIONG added that he would kill President Joseph Biden unless he promised to comply to XIONG’s demands.”
    ……….
    “He added that if released from custody he would immediately resume traveling to the White House in Washington, DC and ‘do whatever it takes’ to complete his plan,” the complaint states. “XIONG stated that he has no intention of returning to California to see his family because he plans on dying while fighting evil demons at the White House.”
    ………………….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  576. BuDuh (4a7846) — 12/30/2021 @ 9:37 am

    She didn’t demand everyone go lick a toilet seat, only that if you contract the mild version your body can build a more robust defense than the 12 shot program.

    12 shot?

    What’s true is that in the past, natural immunity seemed to average out as better than one shot and less than two shots, according to those who looked, AND that natural immunity created IgA which interferes with transmission through the nasal passages, but the vaccine, by itself, does not. (If you later encounter the virus then I think maybe you’d get some IgA, too.)

    Getting the virus is more risky than getting the vaccine, and can entail more discomfort, but not getting the vaccine offers some hope of avoiding everything, but not much. Even a mild infection should deprive you of more free to work or do things days than even the full strength Moderna vaccine. (the Moderna booster shot for adults is half strength I think.)

    The claim: Viruses never mutate to become more lethal

    As the U.S. faces down the COVID-19 Delta variant – now fast-becoming the nation’s dominant strain – reports of a new Lambda variant that first emerged in Peru in August 2020 are gaining the attention of public health officials worldwide.

    News of this coronavirus variant is concerning, especially what it could mean for new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths, all of which had been declining in the last few months. But one tweet being shared across social media claims new viral strains are nothing to be worried about.

    “One more time, for the folks in the back: In the history of virology, there has never, EVER, been a viral mutation that resulted in a virus that was MORE lethal,” reads a tweet by Dr. Kelly Victory shared in a June 30 Facebook post.

    Victory, a Colorado-based physician known for making false assertions about the pandemic, claims instead that as viruses mutate, they “become more contagious/transmissible and LESS lethal.”

    She repeated this assertion in a comment to USA TODAY and further claimed this common viral path toward increased transmissibility and decreased virulence, or the ability to cause disease or other harm in the host, is “exactly what we have seen with all the COVID-19 mutations thus far.”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/07/14/fact-check-viruses-can-mutate-become-more-deadly/7839167002/

    Tangentially, since the CDC’s Omicron numbers were so seriously out of whack, I wonder how many of the cases over summer were actually Delta? Whatever algorithm they use is questionable now.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  577. Rip, I could not find Victory’s quote about natural immunity and I need to get going. I am glad I did find the one above which I will repeat because it is devastating to the media, IMO:

    Victory, a Colorado-based physician known for making false assertions about the pandemic, claims instead that as viruses mutate, they “become more contagious/transmissible and LESS lethal.”

    The dummy stenographers in the media are now befuddled that the virus is doing exactly what Victory said. Maybe they will interview her again and drop the scare tactics.

    Haha! Who am I kidding.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  578. I guess the point is to ignore the posts he didn’t delete?

    No, it’s to point out that Cruz, in his enthusiasm to troll Democrats, didn’t notice that a kangaroo is on the WA (Western Australia) Facebook page, an animal not known to symbolize Washington State.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  579. “12 shots” was hyperbole, Sammy.

    I don’t understand the rest of your comment.

    I have to tend to chores, I check in this evening. Maybe the CDC will have newer, better numbers then.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  580. The claim: Viruses never mutate to become more lethal

    “One more time, for the folks in the back: In the history of virology, there has never, EVER, been a viral mutation that resulted in a virus that was MORE lethal,” reads a tweet by Dr. Kelly Victory shared in a June 30 Facebook post.

    Tere was of course, because that’s where new diseases come from, but the more probable mutation is for something less disabling for longer and that is probably also less lethal.

    BuDuh:

    Tangentially, since the CDC’s Omicron numbers were so seriously out of whack, I wonder how many of the cases over summer were actually Delta? Whatever algorithm they use is questionable now.

    All they had statistics on (from sampling) was what percentage of cases were Delta – they were eventually saying 99% or 99.9%) and some sttudies of how serious the infections were.

    But an important overlooked (because mostly unknown) factor is viral dose.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  581. 81 million idiots think Trump said to inject bleach, Rip.

    I’ll cut Cruz some slack.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  582. Rip, I could not find Victory’s quote about natural immunity …..

    I was thinking of Dennis Praeger.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  583. I would like to dig into their sampling methodology, Sammy.

    Gotta run now.

    BuDuh (4a7846)

  584. Naturally occurring viruses do become less lethal as they mutate. It is not a false assertion, it is the common wisdom in medicine.

    The early variants of Covid did not seem to be less lethal which supported the theory that it was lab grown and not naturally occurring. But now Omicron is confusing them again, like the blind man who was fondling what he thought was the elephant’s tail but starts to suspect that it’s something else.

    nk (1d9030)

  585. Good news. One of my good friends who had COVID last year then got double shot with Moderna has COVID again.

    Best vaccine ever. Super Immunity FTW.

    NJRob (5243b8)

  586. @BuDuhMore than half of my post was a mistaken quotation of yours.

    This is the important thing I said:

    natural immunity seemed to average out as better than one shot and less than two shots, according to those who looked, AND that natural immunity created IgA which interferes with transmission through the nasal passages, but the vaccine, by itself, does not. (If you later encounter the virus then I think maybe you’d get some IgA, too.)

    Average out: Because all these effectiveness results are averages. People who took one dose of the J&J vaccine had a 2/3 less chance of being hospitalized or whatever than those who got the placebo.

    For Pfizer it was 71% For a real infection it was something higher.

    IgA:

    https://www.uptodate.com/contents/structure-and-biologic-functions-of-iga

    Immunoglobulin A (IgA) is the most abundant type of antibody in the body, comprising most of the immunoglobulin in secretions and a significant amount of circulating immunoglobulin. In secretions, it serves to protect the mucosal tissues from microbial invasion and maintain immune homeostasis with the microbiota.

    IgA is the second most abundant isotype in the circulation, following immunoglobulin G (IgG) [4-8]. IgA levels, generally absent at birth, gradually increase throughout the first year of life to about 30 percent of adult levels at one year. Adult levels of IgA are reached in adolescence [9]. Normal serum levels range from 61 to 356 mg/dL

    I think that combines all the IgA targeted against everything.

    Actually, I read, rhe COVID-19 vaccine does cause the creation of IgA.

    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249499

    Evidently then, the only thing that’s missing is IgA in the nasal passages
    From December 2020:

    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0194599820982633

    COVID-19 Vaccines May Not Prevent Nasal SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Asymptomatic Transmission

    Current COVID-19 vaccine candidates are administered by injection and designed to produce an IgG response, preventing viremia and the COVID-19 syndrome. However, systemic respiratory vaccines generally provide limited protection against viral replication and shedding within the airway, as this requires a local mucosal secretory IgA response. Indeed, preclinical studies of adenovirus and mRNA candidate vaccines demonstrated persistent virus in nasal swabs despite preventing COVID-19.

    This suggests that systemically vaccinated patients, while asymptomatic, may still be become infected and transmit live virus from the upper airway. COVID-19 is known to spread through respiratory droplets and aerosols. Furthermore, significant evidence has shown that many clinic and surgical endonasal procedures are aerosol generating. Until further knowledge is acquired regarding mucosal immunity following systemic vaccination, otolaryngology providers should maintain precautions against viral transmission to protect the proportion of persistently vulnerable patients who exhibit subtotal vaccine efficacy or waning immunity or who defer vaccination.

    Viremia = Virus present in the bloodstream.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  587. So there, some people wrote a year ago:

    This suggests that systemically vaccinated patients, while asymptomatic, may still be become infected and transmit live virus from the upper airway.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  588. Isn’t people catching Covid a good thing-build up that natural immunity?

    Dying gives perfect immunity.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  589. Good news. One of my good friends who had COVID last year then got double shot with Moderna has COVID again.

    The incubi and succubi which transmit the virus while you sleep are not affected by the vaccine. He needs to sacrifice a bucket of KFC to Chango, god of the Congo, under a full moon (a photo of Trump going up the steps of Air Force One will do) and make a necklace of the leg bones to wear around his neck.

    nk (1d9030)

  590. The sane people have been outlasted by the crazy Purell swillers. We’re exhausted. We’ve given up on convincing the adamant and pig-headed Typhoid Mary wannabes to get vaccinated, tired of listening to their drivel about how someone in New Zealand died from a shot while discounting the millions and millions of deaths as being all old (i.e. over 40) or feeble (i.e. has a doctor) people. Any personal experience is “anecdotal” but things that are on the Interwebs (that support their position) are God’s Own Truth. Things that say otherwise are a pack of lies by the Deep State, or the Clintons, or something.

    So, with a heart-felt ¡Vaya con Dios! we wish you well, but do not tell us you were not warned.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  591. Good news. One of my good friends who had COVID last year then got double shot with Moderna has COVID again.

    So, what’s at fault? Moderna or their belief they had Covid?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  592. The important part is finding out who will say 2+2=5 and who won’t.

    Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.

    — Winston Smith

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  593. Addressing issues like adverse effects from the vaccines seems like small potatoes by comparison.

    The word you seek here is “rationalization.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  594. Best vaccine ever!

    Vaccine effectiveness is a function of the percentage vaccinated. I thought that we all understood that by now. And in this case we have people who refuse the vaccine for political reasons, which add a new stupid reason to the usual mix of stupid reasons to stay unvaccinated.

    It is well-proven that the vaccine protects against serious disease and death even in a world with intentional disease vectors.

    Covid vaccine effectiveness explained, with data on death rates

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  595. It is my experience that people who tell me they already had Covid also tell me that never got tested for Covid. But they’re sure they don’t need the vaccine.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  596. Kevin M,

    Getting tested (positive) and having symptoms =/= same as thinking you had the virus.

    The shots aren’t what they were promoted as.

    Stay fit, keep up your immune system,live life.

    There’s a reason there is no cure for the common cold.

    NJRob (5243b8)

  597. This should be obvious, but it’s still worth mentioning:

    As At-Home Tests Surge, Doubts Rise About Accuracy of Public Covid Counts

    Most of the results of rapid tests are not reported. That’s magnifying questions about how best to measure the spread of the virus.

    Millions of rapid at-home Covid tests are flying off pharmacy shelves across the country, giving Americans an instant, if sometimes imperfect, read on whether they are infected with the coronavirus. But the results are rarely reported to public health departments, exacerbating the longstanding challenges of maintaining an accurate count of cases at a time when the number of infections is surging because of the Omicron variant.

    At the minimum, the widespread availability of at-home tests is wreaking havoc with the accuracy of official positivity rates and case counts. At the other extreme, it is one factor making some public health experts raise a question that once would have been unthinkable: Do counts of coronavirus cases serve a useful purpose, and if not, should they be continued?

    So, as we see the numbers of Covid cases skyrocket, we should be aware that the actual number is significantly higher. Hospitalizations and deaths “with Covid” (as if it’s really for something else) are probably accurate as the hospital will do a test during intake.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  598. Getting tested (positive) and having symptoms =/= same as thinking you had the virus.

    Didn’t way they were. But I have asked that “did you get tested” question of people who said they “had Covid” and it turned out that none of them got tested. Sure, anecdotal and a small number, but I’m sure that it’s not uncommon.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  599. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/30/2021 @ 10:41 am

    Death is a solution for a wide range of problems. Over simplifying things also makes them seem simpler.

    frosty (83511a)

  600. as we see the numbers of Covid cases skyrocket

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/30/2021 @ 11:47 am

    Do you think the skyrocketing cases are all coming from the unvaxxed?

    frosty (83511a)

  601. 600, I think that particular deity would prefer Popeyes or Canes fingers judging by the length of the drive thru queues that always leak into traffic.

    urbanleftbehind (c073c9)

  602. SMDH: See if you can find all the law enforcement problems in this ABQ article:
    Police bemoan another violent, drug-fueled act

    Here’s one: “Atkinson, already an eight-time convicted felon at the age of 23”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  603. Do you think the skyrocketing cases are all coming from the unvaxxed?

    I rather doubt it since the unvaxxed are only about 20% of the population. I DO think the deaths are mostly among the unvaxxed, and certainly as a percentage outcome of the new cases.

    But, let’s say I’m wrong. That the bulk of the unvaxxed new cases are young, healthy people who do not get very sick and the new deaths are mostly vaccinated old folks. Does that make the case of being unvaxxed better? Or just sociopathic.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  604. They really want everyone to be certain that Epstein did not kill himself.

    And to prove their lie, they put these fools through the wringer.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  605. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/30/2021 @ 3:00 pm

    It’s more likely vax status has little to no effect on transmission. The hyper-focus on this one variable is covering a number of other problems.

    But you’re overall question has a lot to do with how many variables you’re willing to include in the cost benefit analysis. If the bulk of the people dying have multiple co-morbidities or are >65 how much burden should be shifted to the young and healthy. And yes, I know you think the only burden we’re talking about is getting vaccinated and that it isn’t a burden. That’s not the only burden we’re shifting.

    frosty (f27e97)

  606. BTW; for anyone looking for a media job, I think another producer position will get posted soon. And they’ve had to reset the “days since employee arrested” counter.

    frosty (f27e97)

  607. It’s more likely vax status has little to no effect on transmission.

    Transmission is a function of whether the infection has reach a point where transmission is possible, and how long that period lasts. It is, everything else being equal, going to be a shorter period with a vaccinated person as the body is already set up to combat it.

    Now, there are a lot more vaccinated people so you have to use your words carefully here.

    So: A given vaccinated person will be less likely to transmit the virus, over time, than an otherwise-identical vaccinated person would.

    But I have no clue what happens in the gestalt. There are a lot more vaccinated people to infect and as a group they may transmit more than the (much smaller) unvaxxed group.

    They probably won’t be as sick as the unvaxxed group though and it will probably require some degree of ill health for them to get noticeably sick.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  608. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/30/2021 @ 7:32 pm

    This is where the accusations of being a dog with a bone start so everyone who’s bothered by that look away.

    It is, everything else being equal, going to be a shorter period with a vaccinated person as the body is already set up to combat it.

    The situation is more complex than that. With a vaccinated person we know, all other things being equal, the body is setup to prevent the sort of reaction that causes them to be sick. That doesn’t say anything about whether they are spreading the virus.

    Transmission is a function of the viral load in the upper respiratory tract and to some degree the bronchial tubes. And that can be happening when the person is showing no symptoms at all.

    You’re view is binary. That the vaccine completely combats and reduces the entire viral load in all places. But we’ve seen that it doesn’t do that. I was hoping it would initially but it was obvious it wouldn’t when the talk of herd immunity never got off the ground, then the numbers changed, and then it vanished from discussion.

    The view that the viral load shed by a person is a simple function of how sick they get is flawed. Our experience over the past two years with covid says otherwise. The same goes for the view that it reduces the viral shedding or reduces the span over which the shedding occurs. This is a hope. The EUA for the vaccine doesn’t make this claim.

    Now, you’re question always comes back to whether that means people should or shouldn’t get the vaccine because it keeps them from getting sick. I’m not arguing that point. I’m pointing out that the vaccine we have won’t end the pandemic even if 100% of the people took it. The vaccine doesn’t do the job you think it does of protecting other people.

    The desire to get to 100% and the mandates being pushed to accomplish it have nothing to do with science. And you’ll never get to 100% because we’ll always get “new data” and we’ll need a new booster and so on and so forth.

    frosty (f27e97)

  609. This is where the accusations of being a dog with a bone start so everyone who’s bothered by that look away.

    The High-Roaders should already be in the hills they headed to for peace.

    BuDuh (c0ebfa)

  610. I wish I could remember who here recommended Free Republic.

    https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4025568/posts

    Nice!

    BuDuh (8a51fd)

  611. Transmission is a function of the viral load in the upper respiratory tract and to some degree the bronchial tubes. And that can be happening when the person is showing no symptoms at all.

    I didn’t say they were sick, or even more sick (although that IS the way to bet).

    BUT the growth of the viral load has to be set against the body’s defenses and the vaccinated person STARTS with antibodies pre-made while the unvaccinated person’s immune system has to work on it for a while.

    So, when the virus arrives and begins to infect cells, there is an immediate response in the one case and no response in the other. If you think that the virus is going to have an easier time when it is already being bgeaten down and “killed”, I really don’t know haw to get to you.

    It really doesn’t take differential equations to explain that the viral load will be lower (and may not ever reach to point where transmission is likely) in the vaccinated case with the prepared response.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  612. You’re view is binary. That the vaccine completely combats and reduces the entire viral load in all places

    No it is not, and that dog just doesn’t hunt. In the one case you have a process that is already killing virus and in the other it takes a few DAYS to get there.

    Now, different people will respond differently. I have a friend who is fighting a serious cancer. He’s vaccinated up the kazoo, but he really doesn’t have much of an immune system anymore and he will likely not do well at all if he contracts the thing. Probably why he’s shut up in his house.

    It’s like poker. It is not a sure thing to win if you have a full house, but is better than having a pair of jacks. Not binary at all, but which hand would you bet?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  613. I lost a lot of money once with 4 sevens. I know there are no sure things.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  614. I’m pointing out that the vaccine we have won’t end the pandemic even if 100% of the people took it.

    It would end faster.

    The vaccine doesn’t do the job you think it does of protecting other people.

    It cannot help but slow the transmission rate. I am sorry that you cannot understand this, but it’s not rocket science. They put helmets on soldiers — not because it protects them fully, but because they die less quickly that way. Similarly a vaccine makes one less likely to contract the virus and able to knock it down faster. Both those things protect other people.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  615. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/30/2021 @ 10:40 pm

    Have you read any of the information on omicron and how it replicates differently in the upper respiratory tract than, for example, delta? Or how delta worked differently from previous strains? It’s not simply a matter of being more or less deadly or transmissible. They are more lethal and/or transmissible because of the different ways they infect a person and the different types of immune responses they trigger. This doesn’t clue you in that there’s more going on than “you’re body is fighting the virus or it isn’t”?

    Yes, soldiers wear helmets. Has it occurred to you that helmets don’t protect a person’s torso? You don’t die slower with a helmet. You just have more protection from a head wound.

    frosty (f27e97)

  616. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 12/30/2021 @ 10:29 pm

    So, what do you think is going on with omicron? There are more cases, it’s got a higher transmissibility, but a lower rate of serious illness.

    In your model how is the bodies ability to fight it off not reducing the spread?

    frosty (f27e97)

  617. In your model how is the bodies ability to fight it off not reducing the spread?

    Because the unvaccinated have other bad habits.

    I’m really done with this.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  618. Has it occurred to you that helmets don’t protect a person’s torso?

    Since it was my fukking point, yes I realize it. And they still wear them. Get it?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  619. Get it?

    I get that the analogy doesn’t work. And the reason it doesn’t work is because you’re making the same mistake as your making with the vaccine. You’re mixing up different mechanisms.

    Because the unvaccinated have other bad habits.

    Such as? I feel like there’s some secret life of the unvaxxed that I’m unaware of.

    I’m really done with this.

    I’m getting the feeling you don’t really know why omicron is working the way it does. I’ll probably be here the next time you say something that doesn’t match what we’re actually seeing. So, I’m not sure you’re really done with it.

    frosty (f27e97)

  620. 629. frosty to Kevin M on 12/31/2021 @ 5:28 am

    In your model how is the bodies ability to fight it off not reducing the spread?

    It is reducing the seriousness and degree of the spread (viral dose and R0) but it’s greater survivability inside droplets, and its tendency to multiply more in the upper respiratory tract increases it.

    I think Omicron must have about now infected about 1 in every 5 New York city residents in the last two weeks. You hear all over of somebody being sick

    It’s mostly creating not serious cases. Positive tests are at about 20% to 25% plus statewide. (this is a statistic that is only useful for very short term comparisons because how many and what kind of people get tested regularly can changes.)

    That’s oversampling people who feel sick, but maybe other parts of New York State have less than the New York City metropolitan area (although a few weeks ago delta was spreading in western New York)

    Incidentally, while the FDA has approved all told some 40 plus tests, it’s going slow on new approvals – I mean it takes months – and one manufacturer exported its tests to the European Union (Germany) where it is legal to sell them. The FDA says it is giving priority to those manufacturers who say they can get X number of tests out the door in X number of weeks. (I think maybe I read 500,000 tests or test kits in 3 weeks)

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  621. Omicron has passed its peak in South Africa (which would be an illustration of Farr’s Law of Epidemics)

    https://nypost.com/2021/12/30/south-africa-lifts-curfew-as-its-omicron-peak-seems-to-pass

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59832843

    South Africa says Omicron wave may have peaked

    Published 15 hours ago

    …A government statement said the Omicron variant, while highly transmissible, had seen lower hospitalisation rates than previous waves.

    There had been a marginal increase in the number of deaths, it added..

    …The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned of a “tsunami” of infections from Delta and Omicron variants that could overwhelm health systems.

    But in South Africa, a statement released after a special cabinet meeting said cases and hospital admission rates had dropped in almost all provinces across the country…

    ,,,,Overnight curfew rules of varying severities have been in place since a national state of disaster was declared in late March 2020.

    The country still has “spare capacity for admission of patients even for routine health services” despite the Omicron wave, officials said.

    The public are still being urged to get vaccinated and follow public health protocols, including mandatory mask-wearing.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  622. 27. Rip Murdock (8dd5e1) — 12/25/2021 @ 3:15 pm

    I think independent commissions are a joke.

    It seems to have worked in Michigan, but of course it all depends on how they are appointed (and whether or not some faction has found a way and had the time and opportunity to game the appointment system

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/29/us/politics/michigan-congressional-maps.html

    One of the country’s most gerrymandered political maps has suddenly been replaced by one of the fairest.

    A decade after Michigan Republicans gave themselves seemingly impregnable majorities in the state Legislature by drawing districts that heavily favored their party, a newly created independent commission approved maps late Tuesday that create districts so competitive that Democrats have a fighting chance of recapturing the State Senate for the first time since 1984.

    The work of the new commission, which includes Democrats, Republicans and independents and was established through a citizen ballot initiative, stands in sharp contrast to the type of hyperpartisan extreme gerrymandering that has swept much of the country, exacerbating political polarization — and it may highlight a potential path to undoing such gerrymandering.

    With lawmakers excluded from the mapmaking process, Michigan’s new districts will much more closely reflect the overall partisan makeup of the hotly contested battleground state.

    What we need is a situation where approximately one third of the legislature turns over every election, but people the voters like against real competition can stay,

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  623. I think Putin is really worried about what President Biden could do to him, and it is based on faulty information that is coming from his intelligence sources – some of itself generated by his fears and guilt.

    He liked Trump, not because Trump was so good to him, (although he he could have thought that Trump wanted to go easier on him than he did and evidently attributed some of Trump’s actions against him and his regime to U.S. politics so) but because he was sure of what Trump wouldn’t do.

    Victoria Nuland, whom he blames for the Maiden Revolution in Ukraine in February, 2014, is now Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, and he knows that he covertly tried to slander Biden to Trump.

    I think Putin is truly worried that anti-missiles designed to protect NATO countries from Iran could be a cover for offensive weapons against Russia.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  624. MBC Fact check from May 15, 2020:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/fact-check-coronavirus-vaccine-could-come-year-trump-says-experts-n1207411

    Fact check: Coronavirus vaccine could come this year, Trump says. Experts say he needs a ‘miracle’ to be right. ….”We’re looking to get it by the end of the year if we can, maybe before,” Trump said Friday during in a Rose Garden event centered on his administration’s efforts to fast-track a vaccine.

    “Vaccine work is looking VERY promising, before end of year,” Trump tweeted on Thursday.

    Trump probably would like to agree with this, but he’s having trouble saying he accomplished a miracle – his critics’ word, not his – because so many of his supporters are anti-vaxxers

    “I think we’re going to have a vaccine by the end of the year,” he told reporters later in the day.

    But experts say that the development, testing and production of a vaccine for the public is still at least 12 to 18 months off, and that anything less would be a medical miracle.

    “I think it’s possible you could see a vaccine in people’s arms next year — by the middle or end of next year. But this is unprecedented, so it’s hard to predict,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a professor at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.

    Trump was also claiming that the virus would disappear one day, with or without a vaccine. He kept saying at every opportunity that it was about to happen.

    https://doggett.house.gov/media-center/blog-posts/timeline-trumps-coronavirus-responses

    May 5, 2020 “There’ll be more death, that the virus will pass, with or without a vaccine. And I think we’re doing very well on the vaccines but, with or without a vaccine, it’s going to pass, and we’re going to be back to normal,”

    Trump was right in principle, because there is a solid basis for that, but wrong and really lying about the timing but it may be happening now. Omicron will make Delta go away, and then pretty much disappear itself.

    Sammy Finkelman (c49738)

  625. BBC dropped the ball, bringing Dershowitz on board to talk about the Maxwell conviction, not disclosing that he lawyered for Epstein and faces allegations of statutory rape of one of Maxwell’s sex-trafficked girls.

    Paul Montagu (5de684)

  626. Ever ready to put himself out in front with risky positions:

    WHO chief: 2022 can mark the end of the pandemic

    Yes indeed. If not this year, maybe later!

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  627. Happy New Year, Icy!

    Dustin (0ee127)

  628. Sammy can take over here.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  629. RIP, Betty White.

    Paul Montagu (5de684)

  630. This is interesting:

    Studies Suggest Why Omicron Is Less Severe: It Spares the Lungs

    A spate of new studies on lab animals and human tissues are providing the first indication of why the Omicron variant causes milder disease than previous versions of the coronavirus.

    In studies on mice and hamsters, Omicron produced less damaging infections, often limited largely to the upper airway: the nose, throat and windpipe. The variant did much less harm to the lungs, where previous variants would often cause scarring and serious breathing difficulty…

    But as cases skyrocketed, hospitalizations increased only modestly. Early studies of patients suggested that Omicron was less likely to cause severe illness than other variants, especially in vaccinated people. Still, those findings came with a lot of caveats.

    For one thing, the bulk of early Omicron infections were in young people, who are less likely to get seriously ill with all versions of the virus. And many of those early cases were happening in people with some immunity from previous infections or vaccines. It was unclear whether Omicron would also prove less severe in an unvaccinated older person, for example.

    I also wonder if the transmission rate is increased by the ambulatory nature of the more mild cases.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.4862 secs.