Who Can Take Credit for Today’s Solid Jobs Report?
The Labor Department issued a solid jobs report today. 209,000 jobs were added to the economy, beating expectations. Unemployment is at 4.3%, a solid number.
(Of course, the unemployment rate is a virtually meaningless figure, because it doesn’t count people who have dropped out of the workforce entirely. The labor force participation rate, a far more meaningful figure, is at 62.9%, still near its 38-year low. But nobody will talk about that today. Republicans who remembered to look at that number in the Obama years will suddenly forget about it under Trump. And Democrats have never cared about that number.)
Partisans on both sides will of course reflexively claim that their respective Presidents deserve credit for today’s good news. Obama partisans will note that the unemployment rate represents a continuation of its downward trend since 2011. Trump partisans will say that Trump is president now and deserves the credit for what happens today.
Excellent Jobs Numbers just released – and I have only just begun. Many job stifling regulations continue to fall. Movement back to USA!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 4, 2017
The truth is, a single man is not responsible for the performance of the economy. But when that man is a U.S. president, he can have some effect.
Obama took what should have been a strong recovery after a bad recession, and turned it into a tepid one with the job killer ObamaCare. Full-time positions were decimated and the urge to build back was squashed.
Trump, for all the chaos of his White House, and his legislative fecklessness (notably his inability to move Congress on ObamaCare repeal), has nevertheless done one thing right: he has begun to reduce burdensome regulations on businesses. The expectation that this will continue, plus the prospect of tax reform, no doubt has a positive effect on the outlook for big business.
Trump partisans should be careful about taking credit for the economy today, however. We are in a clear asset bubble — one almost as obvious as the stock market bubble of the 1990s and the real estate bubble of the 2000s. The problem is that the current bubble encompasses both. Meanwhile, Trump is doing nothing about our massive looming government debt bubble, which will precipitate the biggest economic disaster of them all.
Nobody even talks about the debt any more.
A more immediate threat is the Fed’s decision to begin unwinding its balance sheet — a move that typically results in a recession. Whether that recession hits before or after 2020 will have a lot to do with whether Trump gets re-elected.
But hey. Enjoy the good news in the meantime.
[Cross-posted at RedState and The Jury Talks Back.]
Unemployment is around 8% in reality. We’re still using the fudged numbers from the Obama administration.
NJRob (7f4bec) — 8/4/2017 @ 9:06 amThere’s also a massive personal debt bubble which includes, credit, housing and student debt.
It will all unravel and the left will claim that the solution is more government control. Even though they created the problem.
NJRob (7f4bec) — 8/4/2017 @ 9:08 am“….the left will claim the solution is more govt. control”
And more govt. debt, much more.
God forbid that Trump should “save the economy” the way Obama did. The only people who made out were public unions and the banks while everyone else just enlarged their IRS IOU.
But I also have no illusions that the Republicans will get US debt under control.
harkin (a49e60) — 8/4/2017 @ 9:18 amwe’re in a real estate bubble too
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 9:50 amoh i see where you encompass both
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 9:51 amNobody even talks about the debt any more.
cowardly spendpig John McCain wants to triple defense spending while going full speed ahead on doing that yummy slurpy obamacare all up in it
plus start a few more wars and open the borders on top of that
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 9:53 amIs Fearless Leader any better than McCain? When was the last time he talked about reducing the debt? How much spending does he want add on with hinting at where the revenue will come from?
kishnevi (bb03e6) — 8/4/2017 @ 10:22 amevery time Mr. President Trump asserts our economy should be growing at 3% or better he’s talking about reducing the debt
you’ll notice cowardpig John McCain never talks about growing the economy
what he wants to grow are the numbers of his luckless ignorant constituents what are on obamacare so they can die in filthy neglectful government hospitals like our veterans, to the everlasting glory of his patron George Soros
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 10:39 amWe are in a clear asset bubble — one almost as obvious as the stock market bubble of the 1990s and the real estate bubble of the 2000s. The problem is that the current bubble encompasses both. Meanwhile, Trump is doing nothing about our massive looming government debt bubble, which will precipitate the biggest economic disaster of them all. — Patterico
That’s what I’m talkin’ ’bout.
AZ Bob (f7a491) — 8/4/2017 @ 10:45 am8. happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 10:39 am
The total size of the debt in future years. It won’t actually go down as a proprotion of GDP except with inflation, which reduced the post World War II debt.
What you really mean is reducing the deficit or maybe the Social Security shortfall. I don’t know how much Donald Trump understands that, but that’s the position of Paul Ryan I think.
If Trump did understand that, he’d want more immigration – at least more skilled immigration, not freezing the numbers of skilled immigrants and reducing other kinds. But it’s actually all politics with him, and innumerate.
I don’t think he’s too good on economics. He proved that actually in Sept. 2008. Jack Kemp used to talk about growing the economy.
Sammy Finkelman (02a146) — 8/4/2017 @ 11:54 amWho can take credit for today’s solid jobs report?
The 22nd Amendment. It’s not that Trump is President; it is that Obama is not.
nk (dbc370) — 8/4/2017 @ 12:34 pmIt’s not a bubble until things start popping. Until then it’s “good times”.
Kevin M (752a26) — 8/4/2017 @ 12:37 pmnk, I would really have liked to see Obama fighting Hillary for the nomination again.
Kevin M (752a26) — 8/4/2017 @ 12:38 pmI vote that happyfeet has to abjure pejoratives for a week. I doubt he can.
Kevin M (752a26) — 8/4/2017 @ 12:40 pmGood luck on that, Kevin.
Simon Jester (bcb31a) — 8/4/2017 @ 12:49 pmI disagree its a bubble. Those are fed artifically, and when the life source is cut off, the bubble bursts.
The closest you can come to artificial support for the economy right now is the low interest rates. The fed has pumped money into economy, so there is tremendous liquidity that must be wrung out at some point.
But the real estate bubble of 2008 was the result of the prime rate loan scams that put people in houses they could not afford. When the bell ultimately tolled for those loans, they went bad, the homes were foreclosed on, and the excess inventory flooded the market, cratering housing prices.
At the same time inventory swelled with foreclosed properties, you had dramatically tightened lending requirements put in place, which only increased the problem by reducing demand for the higher inventory.
That situation doesn’t exist in the housing market today. Increased demand isn’t the result of easy mortgage money — you simply have a stronger economy which provides more income to potential homeowners.
The stock market is raging based on cheap money which makes expansion easier for business, and the promises of less regulation of industry by the government, and lower corporate tax rates.
shipwreckedcrew (fb418b) — 8/4/2017 @ 12:57 pmI have often adjured happyfeet to abjure from hiding his light under a bushel of bullsh!t but I am a voice crying in the wilderness, a brazen cymbal, a sounding gong, a prophet without honor in his own laptop.
nk (dbc370) — 8/4/2017 @ 1:15 pmReal estate bubble, stock market bubble, higher education bubble, credit card bubble — we’re the goddamned featured number of the Lawrence Welk Show with all of our bubbles.
JVW (42615e) — 8/4/2017 @ 1:17 pmin future i hope to do less preservatives on people but they have to start behaving more better first
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 1:38 pmor, you know
go caput
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 1:39 pmthis hoochie here’s a joy to read and all she’s talking about is cooking squash
she really sells it huh
i’m a try her way since it’s cooled off here so much it seems a waste not to heat up the kitchen with something
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 1:57 pmAfter Obama’s 8 years of a collapsing labor force participation rate (65.9 in November 2008 to 62.6 in November 2016), the rate has stabilized under Trump. This is good news. See BLS table.
It should also be noted that the participation rate lags general economic conditions – the decision to enter or exit the labor market is a slow one. These charts are helpful.
The stock market, on the other hand, tends to be a leading indicator. The stock market is at record highs.
ThOR (c9324e) — 8/4/2017 @ 2:03 pmAs a lagging indicator, one shouldn’t expect an immediate turnaround in the labor participation rate – that’s why it won’t be emphasized by anyone other than anti-Trump partisans.
ThOR (c9324e) — 8/4/2017 @ 2:18 pmTHoR, the participation rate has been at or close to 62.9 , the most recent figure on that table (for last month)since December 2013, the main exception being August to December 2015, when it averaged 62.5, more or less. It even hit 63.0 in March 2016. It was already stable when Obama left office. Trump’s job is to raise it and keep it raised.
Your point about it being a lagging indicator is correct. I just disagree with the idea it only stabilized in the last half year.
kishnevi (98ea1b) — 8/4/2017 @ 2:39 pmSome say “stabilized,” some say “bottomed out”. . .
JVW (42615e) — 8/4/2017 @ 2:48 pmIt’s Trump. If Obama or Hillary were in the White House the economy would still be on suicide watch, joblessness would be increasing, more illegals would be working under the table, and more Americans would be on food stamps.
But, Trump is President, and the economy is gaining strength daily, Americans are working again, illegal boarder crossings are down over 50%, and food stamp recipients are at levels not seen in a decade.
So, it’s Trump, he’s our man. May he live long enough to see our nation strong, free, and great again.
ropelight (eaa946) — 8/4/2017 @ 3:08 pmi hope he lives forever and that when he’s done here he’ll walk among the stars and that his journey will be as blessed and joyful as the one we traveled together in the brief time we were allowed to walk in his Grace
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 3:55 pmTrump has exposed the republican party as a sham. His greatest legacy will be ending this group of fraudulent egos.
mg (31009b) — 8/4/2017 @ 5:18 pmAmericans know the numbers mean little; the jobs mean everything.
“‘It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose your own.” – Harry S. Truman
_________
Today’s Beldar the Bitter ‘Watergate, Watergate, Watergate’ Words of Wonder:
“Far from trying to hide the facts, my effort throughout has been to discover the facts—and to lay those facts before the appropriate law enforcement authorities so that justice could be done and the guilty dealt with.” – President Nixon lying to the American people about Watergate; televised speech, August 15, 1973
DCSCA (797bc0) — 8/4/2017 @ 5:28 pm@28. Banana Republicanism.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 8/4/2017 @ 5:33 pmRemarkable, isn’t it, that a year ago, according to Donald Trump:
the employment numbers were all fake
the real unemployment rate was 42%
the stock market was in an “ugly bubble”
and then, literally overnight, the exact same numbers morphed into an economic paradise!
As Patrick says, the truth is more complicated than either of Trump’s self-serving lies.
Dave (445e97) — 8/4/2017 @ 6:12 pmwatching the republican party stupid itself to death is awesome
mg (31009b) — 8/4/2017 @ 6:37 pmTrump is no republican or democrat.
mg (31009b) — 8/4/2017 @ 6:38 pmHe is just Trump.
Cheap shots aside, here’s news that we should all be happy about: Communication Regarding Intent To Withdraw From Paris Agreement
ThOR (c9324e) — 8/4/2017 @ 6:52 pm@34
The terms of the Paris Agreement required the US to do nothing more than file reports and draft non-binding plans. After saying we quit, the announcement then basically goes on to say we will do all that anyway…
Dave (445e97) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:00 pmmg@28
Great comment!
It is difficult to overstate the importance of Trump’s unmasking of the Republican Party. I appreciated Cruz’ comments in the pre-Trump era, but the public demonstration of sleaze that Trump has provoked is breathtaking in a way Cruz’ words were not.
Some left the Republican Party over Trump. The true nature of the Republican Party, as revealed by Trump, seems far better justification. What a repulsive lot they are.
ThOR (c9324e) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:01 pmharvardtrash ted’s been cowardly and silent in the face of a coup that is also silent, because he is a coward, and selectively quiet, particularly when confronted with an unamerican coup, that is also very much on the quiet side, like he is, vis-à-vis this situation (the coup)
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:10 pmThere us certainly some of that thorn, when trump puts firth a very conservative bomb director like mulvaneym
narciso (d1f714) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:10 pmhot tair.com/headlines/archives/2017/08/trump-anything-win-nevertrumpers
narciso (d1f714) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:14 pmYes, I agree, Cruz should speak up.
I find it difficult to call Cruz “harvardtrash” because of what I’ve read about how he was detested by his harvardtrash classmates and professors.
ThOR (c9324e) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:17 pmPikach hates everybody specially after his rhubarb cupcake, they would make the same objevtionabout Nixon who was vicar president at the same Cruz is now and his was a duke sherpskib
narciso (d1f714) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:20 pmi don’t… just cause of he validated the whole ersatz harvardtrash “mystique” by going to that sick vile and squalid school, at no small cost to god knows who paid for it (i’m prone to imagining he’s still paying off his student loans)
going there was a choice, and he chose poorly
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:21 pmi don’t hate everybody i like that mongolian guy what sings about amarillo
he made my whole day yesterday
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:22 pmhere
him’s good pikachu
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:24 pmWaiting for you to post your resume, for comparison.
Dave (445e97) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:24 pmyou can’t even handle my resume
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:30 pmHarvard was a brilliant choice.
What could be more delightful than a Southern Baptist sneaking into the Cathedral of the Elite and outsmarting them? He was a one-man fifth column!
ThOR (c9324e) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:32 pmi just go the other way
it’s the exact same principle why i don’t subscribe to cable
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 7:37 pmWould it be OK if I cross-posted this article to WriterBeat.com? There is no fee, I’m simply trying to add more content diversity for our community and I liked what you wrote. I’ll be sure to give you complcete credit as the author. If “OK” please let me know via email.
Autumn
Autumn Cote (034221) — 8/4/2017 @ 8:01 pmAutumnCote@WriterBeat.com
It was entirely clear that DJT’s election was a significant catalyst for the Dow to jump. Given his rhetoric and complete GOP control federally, this was a rational response.
What I do not understand is how the Durable Goods index jumped over SIX POINTS in June (latest month reported). My guess is that capital spending had been drastically put off for so many years that it is basically inevitable that such investments can no longer be devalued. I do know that the fed policy changes mean that hoarding cash is no longer the slam dunk posture to maintain. Neither of these explanations have a thing in the world to do with DJT. Then again, these are not proven out.
Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 8/4/2017 @ 9:37 pmUgh. “…can no longer be DELAYED.” Apologies.
Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 8/4/2017 @ 9:38 pmI do not understand is how the Durable Goods index jumped over SIX POINTS in June
maybe we’re sending a LOT of shiny new Boeing aircraft to Iran so they can do genocide on Israel to the everlasting glory of sleazy jew-hating US Army general HR McMaster
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 9:43 pmtrump can. he halting the free trade disaster.
djt (8387fb) — 8/5/2017 @ 12:08 amQe kept the bubble inflated, the lack of congressional action may pop the bubble
http://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/politics/news/g3303/melania-trump-first-lady-style
narciso (d1f714) — 8/5/2017 @ 5:20 amnow back to the two minute hate
http://dailycaller.com/2017/08/04/jobs-report-beats-wall-street-expectations-as-unemployment-rate-returns-to-16-year-low/?utm_campaign=atdailycaller&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social
narciso (d1f714) — 8/5/2017 @ 5:57 amnow wouldn’t an actual leak, actually involve real information,
http://dailycaller.com/2017/08/04/nyt-reporter-claims-terrorists-cheer-when-fbi-stops-illegal-leaks/
narciso (d1f714) — 8/5/2017 @ 6:11 amThis,is the back story to the McMaster purge:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/21/trump-assigns-white-house-team-to-target-iran-nuclear-deal-sidelining-state-department/amp/
narciso (364166) — 8/5/2017 @ 6:29 amSo what would this do? http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/04/trump-homeowner-tax-benefit-241328
Admittedly, the discussion on mortgage interest sounds so 2005 to me anyway.
urbanleftbehind (847a06) — 8/5/2017 @ 6:30 amDid Trump have much to do with the employment rate? Quite possibly not. But this is the flipped of the fact that he will catch the blame for anything bad that happens economically, so in a weird way it’s only fair.
Bush caught the blame for the bursting of the housing bubble. It was the inevitable outcome of a piece of Liberal idiocy dating back to the 1980’s; pressure was brought to bear on lenders to shift their lending criteria until there were more brown mortgage holders. It was an imbecilic idea, and I recall economists from all over the political spectrum saying – in effect – “we hope you like bailing out mortgage lenders, because you’re going to have to.”. Bush, in fact, made a couple of attempts to look into the approaching train-wreck (though how seriously may be debated) and was opposed almost hysterically by the usual Democrat suspects.
So, when some Democrat scheme for enriching their cronies blows up spectacularly, Trump will get the blame. It’s only fair if he gets credit for GOOD stuff that he didn’t do, too.
C. S. P. Schofield (99bd37) — 8/5/2017 @ 7:09 amI have to admit Wall St has surprised me a little. They used to abhor uncertainty but now they see an opportunity to squeeze more shekels before the barn door is closed. The only certainty is avarice
Ben burn (ab90f6) — 8/5/2017 @ 7:20 am“Admittedly, the discussion on mortgage interest sounds so 2005 to me anyway.”
It’s vintage Tea Party!
Ben burn (ab90f6) — 8/5/2017 @ 7:33 amNo, that predates the tea party and was always used as a selling point to should-be renters, as in “you can afford because you can claim it on your taxes”. The Tea Party was a response to the muliple bailouts later in the decade and also midwifed by the opposition to immigration reform.
urbanleftbehind (847a06) — 8/5/2017 @ 8:04 amIYO,what percentage of Trump supporters are Tea Party?
Ben burn (ab90f6) — 8/5/2017 @ 8:11 am(Former*tea party as well)
Ben burn (ab90f6) — 8/5/2017 @ 8:12 amWhether that recession hits before or after 2020 will have a lot to do with whether Trump gets re-elected.
A recession also has a lot to do with whether or not people can put food on their tables and clothes on their backs and roofs over their heads. Which do you suppose matters more to Trump – people’s well-being or that he gets the credit for their well-being?
(Think carefully about your answer before you guess that Trump cares more for The Little Guy just because he said so. For a so-called Alpha Male, Trump sure does spend an awful lot of time on the twitter whining and blubbering about how sad it is that pathetic losers keep being so mean and unfair to him. And for a great deal-maker who was going to show the bad deal-makers how winning is done, he sure did seem to drop the ball in his dealing with Congress on the Obamacare embiggening. So maybe you can’t judge Trump by what he says when his actions show the complete opposite.)
Jerryskids (3308c1) — 8/5/2017 @ 10:04 amBecause .much of the congress is deep in the swamp with obamacare with taxes being where they currently are, the travismockasham of this investigation while the critics if the Iran deal are purged his only defenders in the bureaucracy?
narciso (d1f714) — 8/5/2017 @ 10:12 amThe senate finds it effucavoues to punt ob tax cuts, honestly I don’t know what planet they are on.
narciso (d1f714) — 8/5/2017 @ 10:18 amdailycaller.com/2016/07/02/former-dod-official-warns-america-is-on-the-wrong-track-to-fighting-war-on-terror-video/?utm_source=site-share
narciso (d1f714) — 8/5/2017 @ 10:34 amYou could Ted Stevens about that, in a sense:
narciso (d1f714) — 8/5/2017 @ 10:57 amlegalinsurrection.com/2017/08/joy-reid-absurd-of-dershowitz-to-suggest-dc-racial-composition-means-grand-jury-stacked-against-trump
@60 Ben Burn
Do you invest your money with Lucas Clay?
Pinandpuller (7df6fb) — 8/5/2017 @ 11:04 am63, it’s not a natural transition, since many are on the rightmost point of the NeverTrump spectrum. I’d wager it’s 40% solid and maybe 40% reluctant/closet trump support among former c.2009 tea party.
urbanleftbehind (bd9a62) — 8/5/2017 @ 11:07 amFor a lot of Teas it goes like this:
1. The system is crap. WE MUST HAVE CHANGE
Kevin M (752a26) — 8/5/2017 @ 11:11 am2. Trump is change.
3. WE MUST HAVE TRUMP
Meet the new boss…
Kevin M (752a26) — 8/5/2017 @ 11:11 amMy instincts based on anecdotal blog surveys indicates that’s about right. But the light passing between trumpets and the refugees seems minimal. They seem to object to his methodology rather than objectives.
Ben burn (ab90f6) — 8/5/2017 @ 11:12 amMy bad-Lucius Clay
The old man lived in the Wooley Swamp
Way back in Booger Woods
And he never did much harm in the world
He just never did no good
People didn’t think too much of him
They all thought he acted funny
The old man didn’t care about people anyway
All he cared about was his money
He’d stuff it all down into mason jars
And bury it all around
But on certain nights if the moon was right
He’d dig it up out of the ground
Then he’d pour it all out on the floor of his shack
And he’d run his fingers through it
Yeah Lucius Clay was a greedy old man
That’s all there ever was to it
The Ballad of Wall Street-Ben Burn
Pinandpuller (7df6fb) — 8/5/2017 @ 11:21 am4. We must change Trump.
Pinandpuller (7df6fb) — 8/5/2017 @ 11:22 amPat should have a piece oh this. The battle of Saraghari.
http://www.sikhiwiki.org/index.php/Battle_of_Saragarhi
Steve57 (0b1dac) — 8/5/2017 @ 1:09 pmAyoh ghorkali!
Here come the Ghurkas.
Thank fu***ing god for the ghurkas.
Steve57 (0b1dac) — 8/5/2017 @ 1:19 pmYes they were Siikh.
Steve57 (0b1dac) — 8/5/2017 @ 1:26 pmSteve 57
Bahut shukria.
Pinandpuller (f0fa20) — 8/5/2017 @ 2:30 pmYou are sincerely and very welcome.
Steve57 (0b1dac) — 8/5/2017 @ 2:59 pmSincerely the 800lb gorilla in the Indian ocean.
Steve57 (0b1dac) — 8/5/2017 @ 3:02 pmEven the 800lb gorilla needs to pull into port time and again,
Steve57 (0b1dac) — 8/5/2017 @ 3:17 pmthat gorilla sounds like he’s kind of a fat-ass
happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/5/2017 @ 3:36 pmj’adore les gens qui veulent partager
voyance email (3e372e) — 8/8/2017 @ 4:07 am