Patterico's Pontifications

4/22/2020

Southern Governors Start to Reopen — But What Is the Plan?

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:27 am



Here we go:

Some governors in the South have begun loosening restrictions put in place to contain the spread of coronavirus.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp on Monday granted businesses across the state permission to reopen later this week, an announcement echoed by a handful of other Republican governors who are beginning to lift stay-at-home orders.

Kemp’s decision, which will apply to barbershops, gyms and other businesses that include close contact, comes days after President Donald Trump issued guidelines to reopen state economies. Protesters across the country have been gathering at rallies outside state capitals demanding an end to shutdown orders.

In a series of tweets last week, the president called for demonstrators to “LIBERATE” certain states.

There is a set of principles upon which all sane people ought to be able to agree. Of course we can’t because partisanship, but they exist nevertheless.

First, decisions to reopen or not reopen necessarily involve death vs. convenience/jobs/economy calculations, of the sort we have always implicitly made on a regular basis, but which make you look like a moral monster if you put them in black and white. “How many children are you willing to kill to go ten miles faster” is an argument that could be used to reduce our freeway speed limits to 65, or 55, or even 25 mph. It’s only what we are accustomed to that reduces the monstrous appearance of any given approach that says “let’s move forward even though it may kill people.”

Second, the level of social distancing the country is currently experiencing is unsustainable in the long run or even the medium run of 18 months. It has already decimated the economy and will continue to do so, and that has real effects, on standards of living and eventually on death rates.

Third, without widespread antibody and CV testing, reopening too quickly not only will cost lives, but threatens to overwhelm the system catastrophically, in the exact manner that happened in Italy and which we were trying to avoid with this level of quarantine here.

Fourth, if we reopen without a plan, we are not looking at a pure death vs. convenience/jobs/economy tradeoff, because the level of death that could occur in the catastrophic scenario mentioned in point #3 would itself crater the economy.

Fifth, the decision by the Southern governors will cost lives, and the level of death it will cause will not be known for weeks. Whether it’s a good call (and, given point #3, I suspect it’s not) depends not on whether “a single life is lost” (see point #1) but on whether the level of death is shocking and overwhelms the system (see point #3).

Ultimately, it’s raining, we’re holding an umbrella, our arms are getting tired, and we see that we’re not that terribly wet … so we’re closing the umbrella. But that decision should be made, not on the basis of the fact that we aren’t that wet, but how hard it’s raining outside the protection of our umbrella, what our plan is for after we close it, and how bad it is if we get wet anyway.

All I see at this point is people upset that we bothered to use it in the first place because hey, after all, we’re not that wet. Right now.

We need a plan.

We’ll see what happens. I will ignore the inevitable tributes to the wisdom of the governors as nothing seems to change, for a minimum of one month. (Bookmark the post and remind me.) At that point, I think we’ll start to see if my suspicion is right that this is a bad mistake, at this particular point in time.

In the meantime, how about less absurd finger-pointing on testing and some more effort on getting it done? Because this reopening has to happen sometime.

120 Responses to “Southern Governors Start to Reopen — But What Is the Plan?”

  1. Good morning to all.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  2. The guidelines announced by the WH last week are grounded in science and sensible.

    And predictably, just one day later, the president himself started inciting his bootlickers to ignore them completely.

    Dave (1bb933)

  3. One of the more useless metrics is “growth of new cases” when that mostly measures “growth of new testing.” Yet that is what Governor Newsom is focused on today. Eitehr he is completely innumerate, or he is afraid of just those questions you suggest, or he likes the power he has and is unwilling to give it up.

    To be fair, The TX LT Governor seems unable to connect cause and effect, as he suggests that since only 500 have died out of 29 million, that all this economic loss was for little gain. Not only is he making that “monstrous” trade-off, but he’s making it stupidly.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  4. A better rationale for TX is that they HAVE driven the curve down so far that their medical system is capable of handling any cases. They have lost less than 2 people 100K, better than just about anywhere, and to the degree that deaths are proportional to infection that means the virus “load” on the state is far less than other places.

    If you ARE going to take those risks (to avoid the other economic risks) they are in a better position than most to do so. It is quite possible that the increased suicide risk (or other economic risk to life) is in excess of 2 per 100K. At some point, you are killing people either way.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  5. There are ways to tell the Georgia decision is a bad one.

    1. There is no space for mayors or localities to impose shelter in place. Given that Albany Georgia is getting pounded (still) by an outbreak, and conditions in Savannah and Macon are not bad, this is a one size fits all approach dictated by Georgia GOP politics and local budget fears.

    2. Georgia is the state with the least testing in the US. There is literally no health-based basis to make a decision.

    Appalled (1a17de)

  6. California is in a similar position, BTW. Testing is key. I have only anecdotal information from TX, but a friend reported that a testing van came down his street yesterday, testing everyone regardless of symptoms.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  7. Less absurd finger-pointing at those who want to get back to work/re-open their cratering businesses too.

    OK, so the country has been shut down for about a month, and we’re seeing cracks start to form. While some epidemiologists are talking about keeping things closed down for months longer, we’re also seeing growing public protests around the nation, as people call for restarting things.

    Others shame them as “virus deniers” and accuse the protesters of wanting people to die. But it’s hard not to notice a class divide here. As with so many of America’s conflicts, the divide is between the people in the political/managerial class on the one hand and the people in the working class on the other. And as usual, the smugness and authoritarianism are pretty much all on one side.“
    _

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/21/behind-protests-two-americas-one-unemployed-and-one-gets-paychecks-column/5167453002/
    _

    harkin (c72ccb)

  8. You can go here and see your state’s reopening timeline.

    California is proceeding slowly and cautiously, which seems the prudent way to go:

    There is no set end date for California’s stay-at-home order. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has joined a multistate task force, along with Oregon and Washington, to discuss reopening. He warned that some restrictions, such as masks in restaurants and bans against large gatherings, will stay in place through the summer. Schools are closed through the rest of the school year.

    The state is shifting testing priorities:

    California has issued new guidelines this week urging priority coronavirus testing for asymptomatic people in high-risk settings, becoming the first state to expand testing beyond federal guidelines.

    The state instructions released Sunday name asymptomatic people living or working in places like nursing homes, prisons and some households as a number one priority to be tested.

    California is the first state to move beyond the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) recommendations to prioritize hospitalized patients and symptomatic health care workers for testing. In the second-tier of priority, the CDC lists those who are elderly or have underlying conditions and are experiencing symptoms.

    The state guidelines also included a fourth-level priority, involving the testing of all low-risk symptomatic people and surveillance testing of asymptomatic people when possible.

    California cited that testing is “becoming more readily available” across the state and increasing testing capacity in the guidance as reasoning for its decision.

    Dana (0feb77)

  9. Lt Gov Dan Patrick speaks to/for people who think Covid is not a serious threat to life or the healthcare system. Fortunately Gov Abbott is actually making the decisions and while he is opening things up, he has a plan and is being more cautious.

    DRJ (15874d)

  10. I’ll keep the citizens of Georgia in my prayers this week.

    Nic (896fdf)

  11. Reason TV – Why Voluntary Compliance Is Key To Fighting COVID-19: Dr. Jeremy S. Faust

    https://youtu.be/y2vhVpOAC7U

    Amen.
    _

    harkin (c72ccb)

  12. the divide is between the people in the political/managerial class on the one hand and the people in the working class on the other. And as usual, the smugness and authoritarianism are pretty much all on one side.“

    Also folks on pensions or with government or well-capitalized corporate jobs. But TX is really hurting, since oil is as important to them as the movie industry is to Los Angeles. Even here in NM, 20-30% percentage of the state budget comes from oil and gas revenue. Or did.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  13. Reopening haphazardly without broad consensus is not going to do a whole lot of good economically for small client driven businesses. If people are still too afraid to go out to eat or go bowling. It’s actually often more expensive for business owner to operate at quarter capacity than being closed. I keep hearing about the Las Vegas mayor clamoring to open again, I keep thinking, open tomorrow if you want – nobody is coming. Leaders need to inspire confidence if we want to successfully open up again.

    tla (7ab14a)

  14. Lt Gov Dan Patrick speaks to/for people who think Covid is not a serious threat to life or the healthcare system. Fortunately Gov Abbott is actually making the decisions and while he is opening things up, he has a plan and is being more cautious.

    DRJ (15874d) — 4/22/2020 @ 9:09 am

    Abbott strikes a great balance. A lot of Texas governors have to be realists because of the nature of the office. It’s why they make good presidents. Even Ann Richards would come across as a tough-on-crime die hard right winger these days, but she was really just a realist.

    Dan Patrick wants the economy back, but as tla points out, this ‘oh you might kill someone you love but that’s cool’ argument will not actually bring the shoppers back.

    A vaccine, a robust testing system, frankly some kind of health insurance reform where people aren’t scared of medical finance. These will be the path to economic recovery. It is a shame we’re blowing all this money on bailouts that aren’t transformational. They are on the scale of a transformation yet they are aimless.

    Dustin (c56600)

  15. California is proceeding slowly and cautiously, which seems the prudent way to go

    Prudent for whom? People who are sinking economically might not call it prudent. Maybe they already left. More will.

    CA has no need to “bend the curve” any further — they have never come close to hospital saturation. The chances that being exposed to this virus can be avoided forever seem remote. SO the prudence seems to be a fear that those who change things get blamed for anything that happens. So, status quo.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  16. I keep thinking, open tomorrow if you want – nobody is coming. Leaders need to inspire confidence if we want to successfully open up again.

    My sister’s new husband has a place in Summerlin, but she still has her Huntington Beach bungalow 2 blocks from the beach. He’s in LV for work, she’s in HB because there is nothing to do in Las Vegas right now — it might as well be Needles. In Huntington, the beach is open (but the parking is closed), so she has as much beach as she wants all to herself and perfect weather (which they do not have in Summerlin).

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  17. To all of those who may not know this… if your state opens before you think it should, you still have the option to stay home.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  18. frankly some kind of health insurance reform where people aren’t scared of medical finance

    You are going to have to explain this to me. Between the Obamacare subsidies and Medicaid, the only people who would be without insurance are those making over the subsidy levels who don’t want to pay for medical insurance. I admit there are some cracks, particularly due to age (premiums go up, subsidy levels don’t), but I really don’t get this idea of widespread medical poverty.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  19. if your state opens before you think it should, you still have the option to stay home.

    And you can still wear that mask and gloves. You are not required to make a beeline for the next rave.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  20. I think that Trump should be an example, and go to NY and spend the day pressing the flesh, Maybe take a ride on the subway to show people how safe it is.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  21. #17

    if your state opens before you think it should, you still have the option to stay home.

    And you very well might lose your right to unemployment benefits, or government loans for your business. Lots of people will choose money to no money, and put themselves at risk for spreading the illness.

    My literal mind thinks of this as a question of risk management. In Georgia, it’s hard to even guess what the risk is, because the testing is terribly deficient.

    Appalled (1a17de)

  22. People who are sinking economically might not call it prudent.

    I understand that, Kevin M. But here’s the thing: you open to soon, and without reard to social distancing and masks, the risk of infection the naturally increases. Georgia and California are not necessarily comparable due to their population numbers and demographics, as well as testing levels. However, I would rather have a governor who is proceeding cautiously rather than opening up businesses that include close physical contact.

    Dana (0feb77)

  23. Georgia’s number of new cases of grew 4% yesterday and, with Kemp allowing tattoo parlors and hair salons to reopen, I don’t see the number of new cases going down. With at least 767 new cases each day and current 4.1% mortality rate, there will be at least 31 dead Georgians every single day from these new cases, indefinitely. I wonder if the good citizens of the state okay with that.

    Paul Montagu (0073cc)

  24. Paul:

    Georgia testing has been so bad for so long that I think the death rate is skewed, and the increase in cases is a function of slightly better testing.

    Appalled (1a17de)

  25. >A better rationale for TX is that they HAVE driven the curve down so far that their medical system is capable of handling any cases

    the problem is that if you don’t have widespread surveillance testing combined with the ability to trace contacts, and you broadly reopen everything, you just put yourself back where you were on, say, february 1, with no ability to keep things in may from going the way they did in february (forcing a choice in june between closing or medical system overwhelm).

    that’s going to be true until there’s herd immunity, which is why testing + tracing have to be priority #1.

    aphrael (7962af)

  26. Maybe the health officials have access to better data, but from my observation of the Georgia data there are significant reporting lags that make it difficult to ascertain the true trends in the near term. Opening up this weekend seems awfully rushed given that. In the abundance of caution I think waiting even one week would make a world of difference data wise.

    tla (7ab14a)

  27. > if your state opens before you think it should, you still have the option to stay home.

    not so. a lot of people will be required to go back to work *even if* doing so puts their life, or the life of the immunocompromised people they live with, at work — without the state orders they won’t be eligible for unemployment and they’ll be financially required to assume the risk of death.

    the people who have the option to stay at home completely are the retired and those who work in certain kinds of professional jobs, and they largely *will*.

    which means that the public-facing businesses won’t have sufficient demand or a large enough customer base to stay in business, and many of the people being forced to risk their lives will end up losing their jobs anyway.

    aphrael (7962af)

  28. As I understand the theory in Texas: There will be big increases in testing in the next 2-3 weeks with limited reopenings that can be scaled back if needed. That will change if the expected testing kits don’t show up or in areas where serious cases increase.

    DRJ (76a58a)

  29. > >A better rationale for TX is that they HAVE driven the curve down so far that their medical system is capable of handling any cases

    That’s what they thought in February, and they also thought they could contain any cases through testing and tracing.

    But I don’t think that can be done even if you do have the tests

    You’ll stop it four times out 5 but not th e fifth. Maybe Texas got on;y one exposure, and the nationwide limitations on person-to=person contact prevented any other utreaks.

    So Texas mightbe all rght so long as Missouri, for instance, stays shut.

    This is not like SARS, which didn’t take a long time to manifest itself. This is not like MERS, which is so bad that there is not a prolonged period of mild illness.

    COVID-19 (or SARS 2) develops slowly, and goes away slowly.

    It seems to me that the virus has a tendency to remain dormant in the body for days, perhaps within some cells.

    During which time the immune system ignores it.

    At least those virus particles that are hibernating.

    It would be easier to deal with (although perhaps more deadly) if it was dormant for less time.

    Sammy Finkelman (83cfe1)

  30. I understand that, Kevin M. But here’s the thing: you open to soon, and without reard to social distancing and masks, the risk of infection the naturally increases.

    Who said without regard to masks or social distancing? Or testing? In Houston they are, right now, attempting to test everyone, neighborhood by neighborhood, with roving vans.

    And if you think I don’t understand this theory that opening up increases risk, well, I do and your condescension is annoying. It’s not that we don’t understand, it’s that we don’t assign the same weights to the choices that you do. Once the curve has been flattened and the hospitals are not going to be overwhelmed, most of the justification for the lock-down ends. To say that we are now trying to prevent infection is goal-post moving, not to mention hopeless.

    What you do not get is that for many people situated other than you or I, the cure is worse than the threat of the disease. I expect more than just demonstrations if this goes on too long, I expect civil disobedience and possibly civil unrest. Your presecription for what everyone should do only works if everybody does it. If they are not going to, maybe a workable strategy is better, and will protect more lives. Such as vulnerable people should shelter, and that sheltering should be respected, but those who are willing and able should soldier on.

    Unless the idea is to wait for a working vaccine, which may not come for years if ever, we have to accept that this disease exists and live in the world anyway.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  31. TL;DR Hiding won’t help.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  32. that’s going to be true until there’s herd immunity, which is why testing + tracing have to be priority #1.

    Maybe that’s why everyone in Houston is being tested at their homes. They have two weeks before it opens up, and even then there will be precautions.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  33. Also, I urge you to consider the situation in TX, which is seriously dependent on the oil and gas industry. While AOC may view this as a GodGaia-shot, lives and businesses are dying quickly in West Texas. More people that 2/100K will die from the lock-down there. They may be picking a bad option, but there aren’t any good ones.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  34. that’s going to be true until there’s herd immunity

    What makes you think there WILL be herd immunity? There isn’t to the flu or cold.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  35. As I understand the theory in Texas: There will be big increases in testing in the next 2-3 weeks with limited reopenings that can be scaled back if needed. That will change if the expected testing kits don’t show up or in areas where serious cases increase.

    This seems redundant, but if you don’t have this before you open, you’re doing it wrong.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  36. We are still protecting ourselves with masks and distancing in West Texas. The “reopenings” will only be curbside retail, no going into stores, and even the grocery stores are cutting back hours to allow more restocking. I think that will help because people are more likely to panic when shopping in empty stores. Well-stocked stores will reduce that concern, plus restaurants are starting to package and sell hard-to-find items like flour, sugar, etc.

    DRJ (76a58a)

  37. Maybe reopening is confusing. It is still very limited. I expect to see restaurants opening in early May but with severe limits on numbers.

    DRJ (76a58a)

  38. Maybe 50,000 people die every year in traffic accidents. Tell people not to drive to work, since they run a risk of dying, and you will get (at best) blank stares. This virus thing may kill some people, but not many under 50. Not all that many under 60 either. They do have a non-zero chance of dying from CV19, but they are more likely to die in a traffic accident.

    Older people have more risks, which they can judge, but they are mot for the most part in the work force. Lock-downs can continue in vulnerable situations like assisted-living and such, but people generally don’t have the same risk and treating them the same is ludicrous.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  39. I expect to see restaurants opening in early May but with severe limits on numbers.

    I expect those limits will take care of themselves. Salad bars hardest hit.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  40. LabCorp has a $119 home test but it is limited to healthcare and home responders now. It should be available to more people next month.

    DRJ (76a58a)

  41. I agree, Kevin. It may not work or it may only work in some places but we know more about what we face. It is time to let people have more choices.

    DRJ (76a58a)

  42. 41. DRJ (76a58a) — 4/22/2020 @ 11:31 am

    LabCorp has a $119 home test but it is limited to healthcare and home responders now.

    And, for some kind of legal reason, not available in four states: New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Maryland.

    Sammy Finkelman (83cfe1)

  43. 38. DRJ (76a58a) — 4/22/2020 @ 11:27 am

    I expect to see restaurants opening in early May but with severe limits on numbers.

    Ten they might not be able to pay their rent.

    They may open August 1 – when the supplemental unemployment insurance runs out.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/our-restaurants-cant-reopen-until-august-11587504885

    We started making the calls last week, just as our furloughed employees began receiving weekly Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation checks of $600 under the Cares Act. When we asked our employees to come back, almost all said, “No thanks.” If they return to work, they’ll have to take a pay cut.

    …This has had the perverse effect of making it impossible for us to hire enough people even for our limited takeout and delivery business at a time of rapidly rising unemployment. It will be an even bigger problem once we are allowed to reopen our dining rooms. And it will persist at least until July 31, when the unemployment bonus expires. I’d have to offer my cooks $25.40 an hour to match what the government is paying them not to work.

    The Trump administration is talking about setting a timeline for when the country can “open for business.” For my business, Congress has already locked down that date. We plan to open our dining rooms on Aug. 1, once the government stops paying people $15 an hour, on top of standard unemployment compensation, to stay home.

    Sammy Finkelman (83cfe1)

  44. I saw that, Sammy. I wonder why.

    DRJ (76a58a)

  45. > which is seriously dependent on the oil and gas industry.

    has anyone figured out how to stimulate demand and/or produce more *storage capacity*? the big problem the industry has right now is that there’s nowhere to put the oil that’s coming out of the ground. texas can reopen but that’s not going to fix the global demand collapse.

    aphrael (7962af)

  46. > What makes you think there WILL be herd immunity? There isn’t to the flu or cold.

    if there isn’t then we’re f*cked and will have a permanently increased risk of death and there will be no large scale music or sporting events for the rest of our lives.

    but eventually we’ll be able to produce a vaccine for this, just like we have for other infectious viruses.

    aphrael (7962af)

  47. It takes more than storage. It also takes trucks/roads or pipelines, and we have a lot of everything already. No point getting more until demand is back.

    DRJ (76a58a)

  48. if there isn’t then we’re f*cked

    Or maybe we just have to accept that our lifespans are shorter on average. People lived with all kinds of terrible diseases in the past. Before antibiotics, the range of things that could kill you was very wide. Yet people lived their lives.

    And yes, there will be sports and there will be music and they will be much as before. Some people won’t go of course, but some people wouldn’t go before. The crowds will probabaly just run younger.

    What you may get is a partial immunity, where the disease still hits but rarely that hard. It may become more like the flu — which does kill people still, but we accept that.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  49. CBS News
    @CBSNews
    ·
    A reporter asked Gov. Cuomo what he’d say to New Yorkers who want to go back to work because they’re running out of money, to which he replied, “economic hardship doesn’t equal death”

    “You want to go to work? Go take a job as an essential worker” he added https://cbsn.ws/2wYbD51
    __ _

    Karol Markowicz
    @karol

    Surprised the next line isn’t causing more of a stir: “Domestic violence on the increase. Very bad. Not death.”
    __ _

    Cheryl E
    @cherylocean
    ·
    Similar to other “compassionate” leftists: People who are being devastated economically are such an “inconvenience”.

    _

    harkin (c72ccb)

  50. And then there are promising treatments. I find it ironic that the one thing that looks like it might work Gilead’s drug, is already getting opposition because it *might* cost “too much.” Never mind that the company has promised it wold not. These are the same folks that CURED Hepatitis C, which killed many including 2 friends of mine. That drug does cost a lot for one treatment. Then again one treatment cures you.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  51. We agree again, Kevin. Some people will continue to completely isolate, some will pick and choose, and some will resume normal activities. It is a choice informed by more information than we had before.

    DRJ (76a58a)

  52. I am hopeful about Remdesivir but my bet is on Covid plasma, basically IVIG, which is what was used before we had vaccines for other viruses like polio and measles.

    DRJ (76a58a)

  53. Second, the level of social distancing the country is currently experiencing is unsustainable in the long run or even the medium run of 18 months.

    I doubt it’s sustainable for 4 months.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  54. DRJ,

    I am somewhat worried about the actions of the truly stupid, particularly those that rely on the wisdom of the unwise.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  55. Hmmm … do you suppose Dodger season tickets in good seats might be easier to come by.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  56. > my bet is on Covid plasma

    short term, that looks very promising. there’s also been some interesting results with placental stem cells, which i suspect are simply causing regeneration of the cells damaged by the cytokine storm.

    > I find it ironic that the one thing that looks like it might work Gilead’s drug, is already getting opposition because it *might* cost “too much.”

    Gilead has issues with pricing and we may end up needing to have some system of state support for people who can’t afford it. But … i’m a gay man. Gilead *saved* my community in a lot of ways.

    aphrael (7962af)

  57. 47. Not all infectious viruses respond equally to vaccination or even inoculation. In all our efforts to combat viral disease, there have only been two considered effectively eradicated and only one of those is a disease that humans get (smallpox). Our history of dealing with viral diseases isn’t really all that great when you consider the big picture.

    Gryph (08c844)

  58. It turns out that Remdesivir is not particularly expensive to produce. Now, the price reflects other things too, but at least here there are competing treatments to hold the price down.

    And really, the price we are paying NOW to deal with Covid19 is astronomically more than what Gilead might want.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  59. There’s nothing “locked down” about the oil patch.

    For one thing, you can’t turn a producing oil or gas well on and off like a light switch without risking losing part or even all the capacity of that well. They sometimes are persnickety that way.

    So out in producing fields, you have wells that are producing oil, gas, and brine (pretty much always). Some wells produce just gas with very little liquid, and most oil wells produce some gas and brine. You have pumpers and whole crews of hands performing service on the wells, and you have vacuum trucks hauling brine off locations to disposal wells, and gathering trucks pulling oil off tank batteries on wells that aren’t connected to a pipeline yet. The oil field never sleeps.

    What you don’t have right now is any (or extremely little) new drilling going on. That hurts all the service-related business that services exploration and development.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  60. Ten or 20 years from now, targeted antivirals will be commonplace. And of course we’ll all be worried about the prion threat.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  61. Covid plasma was considered a stop-gap measure but because the number of patients has exploded and researchers haven’t been able to keep up, doctors are resorting to the century-old treatment:

    “I think of it as a bridge, until we can develop a vaccine or pharmaceutical that can be shown to be safe, and effective, and can be produced in mass quantities,” says Elliott Bennett-Guerrero, who is studying the use of this convalescent plasma in COVID-19 patients at Stony Brook Medicine.

    I sure hope that an effective treatment can be found, and a vaccine developed soon.

    If we see spikes in the states that are re-opening, the danger of overwhelming resoures only increases.

    Dana (0feb77)

  62. Sure, the oil still flows but no one is using it. And that’s a problem if you are producing it or selling it or supplying those that do.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  63. If we see spikes in the states that are re-opening, the danger of overwhelming resoures only increases.

    By September we’ll have more masks and gloves and ventilators than we know what to do with them. Pretty much like we had DC3s in 1946.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  64. > Sure, the oil still flows but no one is using it. And that’s a problem if you are producing it or selling it or supplying those that do.

    right, and so opening Texas isn’t going to solve this problem. for that matter officially opening the country won’t, if people are still largely choosing ot stay home on their own.

    aphrael (7962af)

  65. Rather too much than not enough.

    Dana (0feb77)

  66. And then there are promising treatments. I find it ironic that the one thing that looks like it might work Gilead’s drug, is already getting opposition because it *might* cost “too much.” Never mind that the company has promised it wold not. These are the same folks that CURED Hepatitis C, which killed many including 2 friends of mine. That drug does cost a lot for one treatment. Then again one treatment cures you.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 4/22/2020 @ 12:29 pm

    There’s a reason all these places where you can’t get rich developing drugs are also non-factors in the search for a cure.

    Dustin (c56600)

  67. Maybe Duh Donald will discover that crude oil is the cure! It used to be THE medicine for all your ails. That and coal tar…

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  68. Second, the level of social distancing the country is currently experiencing is unsustainable in the long run or even the medium run of 18 months. It has already decimated the economy and will continue to do so, and that has real effects, on standards of living and eventually on death rates.

    Not so sure about that. Daily life in civil society managed through a lot changes for years through WW2 with ration books, couponing and so forth. Certainly interpersonal contact is inevitable in many aspects of daily life– barbers, surgery, etc., But damaging the social safety net while fostering the trade off of manufacturing jobs in the 80s for a service economy of burger flippers, barristers, bartenders, waiters and waitresses has come home to roost– and is long overdue for a kick in the ass.

    This will be more a matter of behavioral modification– you don’t need to ‘spoon’ in checkout lines at brick an mortar operations for the sake of the ‘economy.’ Maintaining two meter distancing, taking some personal responsibility [you wear pants out shopping, so put on your mask, too] proper protection- masks, gloves, transparent/translucent shielding by staff is just another new normal- like the now routine maze of security procedures established for air travel over decades of hijackings and assorted hijinks. [Once upon a time, you only needed to get your passport stamped, show a pretty stew your boarding pass and hop on a 747 to London– not all that long ago.]

    In person trips to concerts, sporting events, ball games and such are a luxury, not an essential– they can be conducted w/o crowds– even as PPV, and or broadcast w/minimal revenue loss- the money is in the contracts, not the ticket sales. You can go on and on work arounds for this.

    Regulating in-store customer flows- at banks, brick and mortar operations and so forth seems a wise if not smart fix— and a marketable one, as well: ‘Shop safer with us!’

    Online retail and home delivery services are booming; stagnant,’umbrella clutching’ brick and mortar mall anchors are going to be left behind. Remember the telephone booth? Picture every slot in Vegas in a ‘booth’ all its own- with appropriate spacing between bandits- and so on. The Mob can afford it. You can go on and on with these modernized modifications at various business and manufacturing venues– and they don’t necessarily have to stay in place forever- but some may just root and become established protocol; acceptable routine in daily life– like TSA screening at aerodromes.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  69. But damaging the social safety net while fostering the trade off of manufacturing jobs in the 80s for a service economy of burger flippers, barristers, bartenders, waiters and waitresses has come home to roost– and is long overdue for a kick in the ass.

    Another counterfactual barf of economic ignorance by the king-cat-daddy of know-nothings.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  70. DRJ (76a58a) — 4/22/2020 @ 12:33 pm

    I am hopeful about Remdesivir but my bet is on Covid plasma, basically IVIG, which is what was used before we had vaccines for other viruses like polio and measles.

    They’ve treated some people with Covid plasma, but probably just a handful of people, and you can’t really scale up. But that could be just about sufficient if the number of cases per week dropped way down, to like a dozen.

    Better is creating antibodies (but you have to know which ones, plus the regulatory obstacles.)

    There is another treatment Governor Cuomo was asked about this morning. He seemed to be oblivious of it. Somwthing about a monoclonal antibody and IL-6. A reporter talked about and said it helped.

    I didn’t catch it all and I didn’t catch who it supposedly helped, but it sounded like either the reporter himself or someone he knew. No transcript appears yet on the C-Span page of today’s coronavirus briefing by in Albany by Governor Cuomo. (it’s correct by the way that he really or mostly works in New York City.)

    That was the briefing where he talked about a massive test, trace and isolate in hotels plan, and how Michael Bloomberg was going to make it work.

    News stories I found:

    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/nyc-july-fireworks-show-70287000

    The governor said that “we will literally need thousands” of people to trace the contacts of infected people.

    The state currently has just 225 tracers with almost 500 more in New York City and its suburbs, and their efforts to contain the virus by finding people who had contact with the sick fell apart quickly as huge numbers of people in the region fell ill.

    Cuomo said they will start to build a greater force of disease detectives by drawing from 35,000 medical field students at state and city universities, as well as from the state health department and other agencies. The Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University will create an online curriculum and training program.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/billionaire-mike-bloomberg-will-help-new-york-develop-coronavirus-test-and-trace-program-gov-cuomo-says.html

    (Cuomo said Mike Bloomberg’s company had experience with a coronavirus rise and fall (not those words) in China and in Italy.

    Sammy Finkelman (83cfe1)

  71. Something we agree on Rags.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  72. President Donald Trump intends to give the commencement address at West Point on June 13, postponed from May, at which all the graduating cadets would be personally present, although not the usual crowd in a football stadium.

    They’re still working things out.

    Sammy Finkelman (83cfe1)

  73. @70./@72. Ignorance is bliss; stay happy.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  74. We agree on lots of stuff, Kevin.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  75. here’s a link to a document from wynn las vegas about their plans for reopening. https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com/23/a3/e1a1ed3e446f876aeb7707742423/wynn-health-plan.pdf

    topline: *wynn* doesn’t think that the strip should reopen for another month at least, and then only carefully and slowly.

    details:

    * temperature checks on entrance, nobody with temperature above 100F allowed. free sanitizer for each guest.

    * employees to wear masks and wash hands hourly. employee meetings to be held remotely.

    * valet service suspended. carts to be sanitized after each use. elevators to be sanitized hourly. four person per elevator limit.

    * guest room sanitization to be way more extensive than historically normal. extra pillows and blankets removed from guest rooms and available on request.

    * guest rooms occuppied by presumed infected will not be returned to service until they’ve undergone sanitization by a licensed third-party expert

    * shoeshine services suspended

    * physical distancing enforced in lines

    * restaurants and bars reconfigured to allow a minimum of six feet between parties. condiments only in single use containers. tables and chairs sanitized after each use. menus to be single use or disposable. transfer of food and beverage items via contactless methods. lounge seating to be removed. self-serve condiments and utensils to be removed, available on request. napkin service suspended. tableside cooking to go suspended. grab+go offerigns suspended, only available from workers.

    * slots reconfigured to allow physical distancing

    * every other table closed to preserve physical distancing. dice to be sanitized for each shooter. interior of card shoes to be sanitized after each game.

    * self service buffets shut down

    * front of house high touch areas to be sanitized frequently. counters, etc every four hours or on new employee; scooters, wheelchairs, etc after each us; doors, vending machines, credenzas, escalator handralls, plaza handrails, slot machines, etc, hourly

    aphrael (7962af)

  76. @70. Containing the modern, ideological conservative movement can be a messy business, Raggy…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt4mYUKjzn0

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  77. @75. Pfft. Kevin’s a lot of yes-but-fun– especially when he tries to explain the ‘Reagan booms’– his 1981-82 recession blowing up the economy– or the Reaganomics October, 1987 market crash exploding the economy. That shining city on a hill was just a White Castle full of minimum wage earners.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  78. So can being a wall-eyed idiot, DC DSM.

    Not that either your comment or mine applies to anyone in particular….

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  79. @79. Ignorance is bliss; stay happy, Raggy– and don’t spend all your Reagan dimes in one place.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  80. 73.President Donald Trump intends to give the commencement address at West Point on June 13, postponed from May, at which all the graduating cadets would be personally present, although not the usual crowd in a football stadium.

    Families attending?

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  81. But What Is the Plan?

    Even w/prevailing westerly winds it obviously has to be relevant to regions; it can’t be done in a random, helter-skelter fashion. You’d think some old, dusty binder in a rusty file cabinet down in the Pentagon basement next to the crate of 1963 saltine crackers would have a plan to deal w/a post ‘germ warfare’ attack that would present some rudimentary guidance. A plan w/ basic procedures [a la powering up Apollo 13’s CM]– there’s a lot to learn from that success. The ‘odyssey’ of bringing America back on line requires plan and flexible procedures to start from the basics up. You’d lile to believe some of these young computer geeks would use some ‘SimCity’ or ‘SimSociety’ template as an overlay to crank things back up. For instance, you don’t open up gyms or sport venues, hair salons, barber shops, massage and tattoo parlors– even beaches- for crowded interpersonal contact before you get the food distribution network, the power grid, medical and sanitation systems a reasonable all clear, etc., then build on that. And, of course, you keep researching for a vaccine.

    The Trump team just doesn’t seem to be well organized on how to attack and manage this beyond using ‘garden hose’ tactics on the flaring hot spots. And encouraging these right wing wackjobs at protesting to ‘liberate’ their states is just stupid- and doesn’t help, either.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  82. Southern Man Gov

    Southern Gov, better keep your head.
    Don’t forget what that Fauci said.
    Southern states will be free at last
    Put this virus in teh past

    Southern Gov

    I saw coughing and I saw masks
    Tall Mcmansions and little shacks.
    Southern Gov, don’t listen to teh quacks

    I heard screamin’ and lefties crackin’ and
    They’re wrong, they’re wrong
    Theyyyyy are wrong

    Southern Gov, better watch yer ass
    The East Coast thinks you’re second class
    Southern states will be free at last
    Put this virus in teh past

    Southern Gov

    Colonel Haiku (7caebd)

  83. A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients
    ……
    Increasingly, doctors also are reporting bizarre, unsettling cases that don’t seem to follow any of the textbooks they’ve trained on. They describe patients with startlingly low oxygen levels — so low that they would normally be unconscious or near death — talking and swiping on their phones. Asymptomatic pregnant women suddenly in cardiac arrest. Patients who by all conventional measures seem to have mild disease deteriorating within minutes and dying at home.
    ……
    Autopsies have shown some people’s lungs fill with hundreds of microclots. Errant blood clots of a larger size can break off and travel to the brain or heart, causing a stroke or heart attack. On Saturday, Broadway actor Nick Cordero, 41, had his right leg amputated after being infected with the novel coronavirus and suffering from clots that blocked blood from getting to his toes.

    Lewis Kaplan, a University of Pennsylvania physician and head of the Society of Critical Care Medicine, said every year doctors treat people with clotting complications, from those with cancer to victims of severe trauma, “and they don’t clot like this.”

    “The problem we are having is that while we understand that there is a clot, we don’t yet understand why there is a clot,” Kaplan said. “We don’t know. And therefore, we are scared.”
    “That’s when we knew we had a huge problem,” said Coopersmith, a critical-care surgeon. As he checked with his counterparts at other medical centers, he became increasingly alarmed: “It was in as many as 20, 30 or 40 percent of their patients.”

    One month ago when the country went into lockdown to prepare for the first wave of coronavirus cases, many doctors felt confident they knew what they were dealing with. Based on early reports, covid-19 appeared to be a standard variety respiratory virus, albeit a contagious and lethal one with no vaccine and no treatment. They’ve since seen how covid-19 attacks not only the lungs, but also the kidneys, heart, intestines, liver and brain.

    Increasingly, doctors also are reporting bizarre, unsettling cases that don’t seem to follow any of the textbooks they’ve trained on. They describe patients with startlingly low oxygen levels — so low that they would normally be unconscious or near death — talking and swiping on their phones. Asymptomatic pregnant women suddenly in cardiac arrest. Patients who by all conventional measures seem to have mild disease deteriorating within minutes and dying at home.

    With no clear patterns in terms of age or chronic conditions, some scientists hypothesize that at least some of these abnormalities may be explained by severe changes in patients’ blood.
    ……
    The first sign something was going haywire was in legs, which were turning blue and swelling. Even patients on blood thinners in the ICU were developing clots — which is not unusual in one or two patients in one unit but is for so many at the same time. Next came the clogging of the dialysis machines, which filter impurities in blood when kidneys are failing and jammed several times a day.
    …..
    Then came the autopsies. When they opened up some deceased patients’ lungs, they expected to find evidence of pneumonia and damage to the tiny air sacs that exchange oxygen and carbon dioxide between the lungs and the bloodstream. Instead, they found tiny clots all over.
    …..
    Although there was no consensus on the biology of why this was happening and what could be done about it, many came to believe the clots might be responsible for a significant share of U.S. deaths from covid-19 — possibly explaining why so many people are dying at home.
    ….
    A study published in JAMA on Wednesday found that a large number of covid-19 patients admitted to New York State’s largest health system came in with blood test readings that indicated clotting problems.

    And a Dutch study published April 10 in the journal Thrombosis Research provided more evidence the issue is widespread, finding 38 percent of 184 covid-19 patients in an intensive care unit had blood that clotted abnormally. The researchers called it “a conservative estimation” because many of the patients were still hospitalized and at risk of further complications.

    Early data from China on a sample of 183 patients showed more than 70 percent of patients who died of covid-19 had small clots develop throughout their bloodstream.Although acute respiratory distress syndrome still appears to be the leading cause of death in covid-19 patients, blood complications are not far behind, said Behnood Bikdeli, a fourth-year fellow at Columbia University Irving Medical Center, who helped anchor a paper about the blood clots in the Journal of The American College of Cardiology.

    “My guess is it’s one of the top three causes of demise and deterioration in covid-19 patients,” he said. ……

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  84. Meat shortage fears deepen as Tyson Foods closes its largest pork plant
    Another major pork production plant is shutting down over a spike in cases of the coronavirus, further straining the U.S. meat supply chain and raising fears of potential shortages.

    Tyson Foods said it is closing its Waterloo, Iowa plant, where it has 2,800 employees and processes 19,500 hogs a day. It is Tyson’s largest pork plant and represents about 4 percent of the nation’s pork processing capacity.

    “Despite our continued efforts to keep our people safe while fulfilling our critical role of feeding American families, the combination of worker absenteeism, covid-19 cases and community concerns has resulted in our decision to stop production,” said Steve Stouffer, group president of Tyson Fresh Meats.

    The closure follows other major shutdowns at plants run by Smithfield Foods, JBS USA and other companies that prop up the country’s meat supply. U.S. production of beef and pork largely relies on a few massive facilities. Stouffer said hundreds of independent farmers are tied to the Waterloo plant, along with truckers, distributors and grocers.
    …..
    More than 180 infections were confirmed among plant workers earlier this week, the AP reported, and hundreds more have stopped filling their shifts. Tyson is continuing to pay employees while the plant is closed and will offer testing for the coronavirus to staff later this week.

    The move came after local officials, including Waterloo’s mayor, called on Tyson to shut down and curb the number of cases linked to facility. Black Hawk County Sheriff Tony Thompson said, “We need a hard boot, reset on that plant.” Tyson had temporarily closed its plant in Columbus Junction, Iowa, before reopening with limited production.

    On Monday, JBS — the U.S. subsidiary of the world’s largest processor of fresh beef and pork — announced it would indefinitely close a pork plant in Worthington, Minn. The facility, which employs more than 2,000 people and processes 20,000 hogs a day, was the third JBS plant to suspend operations after spikes in infections from the coronavirus. It shut down its Greeley, Colo., beef facility last week and another in Souderton, Pa., which has since reopened.

    Earlier this month, Smithfield Foods announced its plant in Sioux Falls, S.D., would shutter indefinitely. The plant represents 4 to 5 percent of U.S. pork production, the company said.

    National Beef Packing also has closed its plant in Tama, Iowa. Cargill halted production at its Hazleton, Pa., ground beef and pork processing plant. The company also scaled back operations at one of Canada’s biggest beef-packing plants after dozens of workers contracted the virus.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  85. ….if your state opens before you think it should, you still have the option to stay home.

    That’s a crock. I have never stopped working, as I am considered “essential” by employer, who is the same employer as Patterico. Not only must pubic employees go to work, we are also considered “Disaster Service Workers” by the State, and can be assigned to do anything outside our normal expertise that the County requires. What fun.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  86. That’s “public” employees. Ouch!

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  87. UCI hasn’t announced yet what will happen in Fall (we’re on the quarter system, so that means the end of September/start of October). It’s not clear yet either at what level these decisions will ultimately be made (governor? system-wide? campus?)

    The unofficial expectation is that there will be at least some in-person instruction (with social distancing and PPE).

    Dave (1bb933)

  88. I don’t know when but the market for oil will come back. Supplies need to be moved. People want to do things. Life goes on.

    DRJ (15874d)

  89. The COVID-19 vaccine timeline according to the NIH as of January 23, 2020:

    Current studies at NIAID-funded institutions and by scientists in NIAID laboratories include efforts that build on previous work on SARS- and MERS-CoVs. For example, researchers are developing diagnostic tests to rapidly detect 2019-nCoV infection and exploring the use of broad-spectrum anti-viral drugs to treat 2019-nCoVs, the authors note. NIAID researchers also are adapting approaches used with investigational SARS and MERS vaccines to jumpstart candidate vaccine development for 2019-nCoV. Advances in technology since the SARS outbreak have greatly compressed the vaccine development timeline, the authors write. They indicate that a candidate vaccine for 2019-nCoV could be ready for early-stage human testing in as little as three months as compared to 20 months for early-stage development of an investigational SARS vaccine.

    The primary author? Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

    DRJ (15874d)

  90. There is an upside to this; stood masked and covered in a grocery aisle full of frantic shoppers yesterday– did a little hack =cough= — and they all looked up, then slowly left the aisle empty– leaving me the pick of the remaining goodies.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  91. @86. My sis-in-law is an attorney w/San Diego County and was ordered to ‘work from home’ until May 1.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  92. “ Maybe 50,000 people die every year in traffic accidents. ”

    – Kevin M

    Traffic accidents aren’t contagious. And the 50,000 deaths a year you’re talking about occur with an extremely large percentage of the population driving every day. What if there were a million traffic accident deaths a year? What if two percent of the people who drove cars died in traffic accidents in a given year?

    I understand the point you’re making about risk, but I think the traffic accident analogy leaves a lot to be desired.

    Leviticus (144797)

  93. > could be ready for early-stage human testing in as little as three months

    and he was right, we have vaccines in early-stage human testing. but the tests take more than a year:

    * you have to test baseline safety (does this vaccine kill someone)
    * you have to test efficacy (does this vaccine work against the virus?)
    * you have to test for side-effects (does this vaccine cause inflammation of brain tissue six months after injection in 1% of people who receive it?)

    because of the scale on which this vaccine is administered, latent side effects t hat take months to uncover are an unusually serious matter.

    aphrael (7962af)

  94. Its the SOUTH! What make you think they have a plan except “what me worry?”

    asset (754765)

  95. 86, 87… you are working? How do you get away with posting all day long?

    Colonel Haiku (7caebd)

  96. I wanna be an “essential employee” posting comments on blogs! Where do I sign up?

    Colonel Haiku (7caebd)

  97. I understand the point you’re making about risk, but I think the traffic accident analogy leaves a lot to be desired.

    It doesn’t work; like supply-side economics. What this tragedy has done is blow off righty rhetoric, strip away their facades and the smoke and mirrors to reveal the gaping holes and damage done to the basic social safety net systems in America over the past 35 years– particularly for seniors- the ‘greatest generation'; the folks Fox flag wavers play to. It’s absurd to see multiple mile-long lines at food banks in Pittsburgh, or half-assed testing tents in Walmart parking lots; or pathetic sewing circles stitching face masks; or supercarrier crews overflowing sickbays; or bodies in city hospitals and rural nursing homes trundled out to be stacked in refrigerated trucks. These are is a embarrassments. And yet another failure of leadership. The stuff of a 20th century “superpower” that peaked in that department long ago; the stuff of a country that keeps having to tell itself it is ‘great’ when evidence keeps piling up that it is not so great after all; being left behind as modern methods of 21st century life progress around them. The Brits suffered a similar fate as their empire evaporated. Their island is peppered with monuments to past glory.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  98. @96
    During mental health breaks on my phone. Doesn’t take long. Five minutes. As you can see, I don’t engage in long discussions.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  99. @92-
    Tried that, but kept getting kicked out of our network connection. Not designed for 300+ people trying to access it all at the same time. I end up getting calls from the at-homes to email them documents.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  100. Had a distant, ‘driveway-to-driveway-pow-wow’with several neighbors this afternoon.

    Interesting talk; one gets groceries delivered and wipes them all down before bringing into the house; another said he took his wife to a local drive-thru ‘testing center’ at Kaiser and was chargeg $100 for the in-car test- insurance didn’t cover it; but still, the line of vehicles was very, very long to get tested. Everyone said the same thing about opening up too soon; even if the bars, restaurants ,etc., open for business, none of them said they’d patronize the businesses any time soon until they were sure… like July or August, maybe. And everyone agreed– and wondered why– baseball, golf and such can’t be played to empty venues and simply televised w/o crowds. So despite what America’s Trump or Georgia’s Kemp say, nobody seemed all that keen on going back to old routines.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  101. Trump says he ‘strongly’ disagreed with move to reopen Georgia — contradicting source who said he agreed with it

    President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence both called Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp on Tuesday night and expressed support and praise for the Republican’s move to reopen businesses in his state starting Friday, a source familiar with the call said. Trump later said the opposite — that he told Kemp he disagreed “strongly” with the decision.

    The call came as public health officials warned that Kemp is moving too quickly, some business owners said they would keep their doors closed and mayors said they feared Kemp’s action would deepen the coronavirus crisis in their communities.
    Trump and Pence complimented Kemp on his performance as Georgia governor, the source said. Another person familiar with the call said it went well.

    But the President said during Wednesday’s news conference that he told Kemp he disagreed “strongly” with the governor’s decision to reopen some businesses in his state.

    “I told the governor of Georgia Brian Kemp that I disagree strongly with his decision to open certain facilities which are in violation of the phase one guidelines for the incredible people of Georgia,” Trump said.

    He suggested he would intervene if he saw “something totally egregious.”

    “I love those people. They’re great. They’ve been strong, resolute, but at the same time, he must do what he thinks is right. I want him to do what he thinks is right, but I disagree with him on what he’s doing but I want to let the governors do (what they want),” the President said.

    “Now, if I see something totally egregious, totally out of line, I’ll do (something),” Trump said, but did not provide specifics on what he would do.

    Kemp, a staunch ally of Trump, on Monday announced Georgia would allow nail salons, massage therapists, bowling alleys and gyms to open Friday. In-person church services can resume. And restaurants and movie theaters can open Monday. His order also bars cities from imposing their own restrictions on businesses.
    ……
    Data collected by Johns Hopkins University shows that as of Wednesday, Georgia had seen 20,166 confirmed cases of coronavirus and had recorded 818 deaths resulting from the virus.

    “In the same way that we carefully closed businesses and urged operations to end to mitigate the virus’ spread, today we’re announcing plans to incrementally and safely reopen sectors of our economy,” Kemp told reporters Monday.

    Kemp’s decision has drawn criticism from public health experts who have repeatedly stressed the dangers of relaxing social distancing measures too early.

    Georgia hit its projected peak for daily deaths on April 7, according to an influential model often cited by the White House. But that same model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, says that Georgia shouldn’t start relaxing social distancing until after June 15 — when the state can begin considering other measures to contain the virus, such as contact tracing and isolation.
    >>>>>>

    Trump kicked something from under Kemp.

    RipMurdock (d2a2a8)

  102. @100. Yeah, she has had similar frustrations; doesn’t like it either- broken routine. But they ordered her out of her courthouse office; won’t let her in.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  103. Trump kicked something from under Kemp.

    “Excuse me, Mr. President, you’re confusing “have their back” with “stab them in the back”.”

    Hopefully GOP governors will note this and not rush like Kemp.

    Kishnevi (22ac03)

  104. 98. I wonder what drives a person to show his ass day after day in a forum populated with people who understand economics at least somewhat.

    What’s the compulsion? It really is tragic to see some who insists on making a fool of themselves, and hasn’t a clue about how things work.

    Pitiful…!!!

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  105. @105.Wonder no more: drop your flap and look in the mirror– then smile back, Lucky Pierre; ignorance is bliss; stay happy.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  106. aphrael (7962af) — 4/22/2020 @ 12:08 pm

    but eventually we’ll be able to produce a vaccine for this, just like we have for other infectious viruses.

    We don’t have any viable vaccines for any of the coronavirus strains.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 4/22/2020 @ 12:55 pm

    Ten or 20 years from now, targeted antivirals will be commonplace.

    “Within 30 years fusion will be a viable source of clean energy” – fusion researchers and dreamers for at least the last 30 years.

    There’s a better chance that the research into those targeted antivirals produces covid21 than anti-covid19.

    frosty (f27e97)

  107. Is there any explanation for Trump simultaneously criticizing social distancing orders and the relaxation of social distancing? Other than a desire to be able to claim credit for mutually exclusive strategies?

    Time123 (ca85c9)

  108. I guess I’m asking if any of his supporters / fans have an explanation or see him expressing nuance that I’m missing.

    Time123 (ca85c9)

  109. the wily doctor donald is keeping the invisible enemy off guard

    Dave (1bb933)

  110. He has narcissistic personality disorder coupled with childhood ADHD that never resolved, so he craves attention and is oblivious to criticism and risk.

    DRJ (15874d)

  111. DRJ, I just wondered if there was something other than Garbage people gotta garbage.

    Time123 (a7a01b)

  112. Kevin M — we *may* have a vaccine for SARS-COV. One was in development but the funding was pulled because nobody needed it any more because it was successfully contained.

    The question isn’t, will we have a vaccine. The question is, does SARS-COV-2 mutate fast enough, and in the right way, to reduce the effectiveness of a vaccine.

    aphrael (7962af)

  113. All agree that SARS=COV-2 doesn’t mutate fast. SARS was contained because it doesn’t hibernate.

    A lot of New Yorkers have been “vaccinated” by their neighbors. Governor Cuomo indicated today that preliminary results show that 21% of New York City residents who are about to enter a supermarket have antibodies for this coronavirus. How strong immunity that may give remains to be seen and this would need to e verified by other tests, too..

    Sammy Finkelman (329d95)

  114. 108. Time123 (ca85c9) — 4/23/2020 @ 5:30 am

    ? Other than a desire to be able to claim credit for [being right about] mutually exclusive strategies?

    Isn’t that enough of a reason.

    But actually there are two or three other reasons:

    1) After hearing some more from his medical consultants he suspected that the outcome in Georgia, might not be good, and therefore wanted to disassociate himself from that.

    2) New York Governor Andrew Cuomo talked some sense into him about responsibility and being willing to take criticism.

    3) It depwnds on who’s the target audience:

    People on his mailing list; or doctors and people who are familiar with the argumets pro and con?

    Sammy Finkelman (329d95)

  115. It wasn’t simultaneous.

    Sammy Finkelman (329d95)

  116. Isn’t that enough of a reason.

    It depends.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  117. Time123 112,

    It would be nice if Trump has a plan (even if it is only a plan to help his poll numbers) but I don’t think he has the restraint or patience to do anything but react to the moment. Any justification is created after-the-fact by aides.

    DRJ (15874d)

  118. I guess I picked the wrong time to watch “Joker” — movie about an insanely delusional maniacal clown inciting a mob of other clowns.

    nk (1d9030)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.4533 secs.