Patterico's Pontifications

2/1/2020

Weekend Open Thread

Filed under: General — Dana @ 9:05 am



[guest post by Dana]

Feel free to talk about anything you think is newsworthy or might interest readers.

I’ll start.

First news item:

Coronavirus numbers, queue the stupid:

Scientists at Hong Kong University published research in a medical journal on Saturday that projects as many as 75,815 people in Wuhan, China, may have been infected with Coronavirus, the South China Morning Post reported.

The city of 11 million people has been on virtual lockdown for weeks as China seeks to stem the spread of the deadly virus. The death toll jumped overnight by 46 to 259 people, while the number of confirmed cases in China soared to 11,791. Around two dozen other countries have reported another 137 cases, Reuters reported.

President Trump tweeted a photo of the White House task force at work with various agencies about a response to the virus:

Here was CNN reliably bringing the stupid:

CNN wasn’t alone:

As the world continues to worry about the spread of the coronavirus, many weary style lovers are beginning to wonder; how do I stay chic in the event of an epidemic? The social set are now rushing to get their hands on surgical-grade face masks, rumoured to be the most effective, but fashion has been getting prepared for a while.

More here.

Second news item:

A positive State of the Union speech coming:

President Trump’s third State of the Union address on Tuesday will put forth a vision of “relentless optimism” that focuses on addressing issues affecting America’s working families…”The theme of the State of the Union is the great American comeback,” the senior administration official said. “In his address, the president will lay out a vision of relentless optimism…“He will encourage Congress to work with him to continue building an inclusive economy where the least well-off are making some of the fastest gains and where people of every background are finding new opportunities,” the official said.

When the president heads to Capitol Hill, the Senate will be on the verge of acquitting the president of the impeachment articles brought against him by the Democratic-controlled House. It’s unclear whether or how the vote will impact what he plans to say.

The official on Friday declined to say whether Trump planned to address impeachment at all, further emphasizing that the speech would strike an “optimistic” tone and urge Congress to take action on legislative actions related to health care and other areas.

[Ed. – Since Trump’s likely acquittal will happen Wednesday, Trump, who is not a gracious winner or loser, will not be able to resist addressing the impeachment during the SOTU by mocking Democrats, emphatically reiterating that he has done nothing wrong, and droning on about having been the victim of a “Witch Hunt”.]

Third news item:

March of the Media – A Metaphor:

Fourth news item:

You have a voice, use it to dialogue with whom you disagree, instead of hiding out in fear:

Conservative author Heather Mac Donald spoke at Emory University on Tuesday—despite the best efforts the student government’s chief of staff, who filed a petition arguing that the event violated “the right of freedom from discrimination by any student group.”

This petition was dismissed, since Mac Donald’s talk was not funded by student fees and therefore was free of the non-discrimination requirement.

But many students agreed that Mac Donald’s words were discriminatory and a threat to public safety. They gathered in a “safe space” while she spoke, watching her speech on a video feed from a remote location.

…Simultaneously, downstairs, a group of more than 80 students, faculty and staff members crowded into a lecture hall to watch a livestream of Mac Donald’s remarks. This event, hosted by Emory NAACP, the Caucus of Emory Black Alumni (CEBA) and Rollins Earn and Learn, was advertised as “a safe space for students to be able to express their reaction to what Heather Mac Donald has to say.”

CEBA President Natalie Gullatt (11C), who helped organize the response event, emphasized the need for an environment for individuals affected by Mac Donald’s inflammatory remarks. Gullatt said that the two events were held at the same time to reduce attendance at Mac Donald’s lecture.

“We don’t want to give her any type of ammunition or any type of way to use anything that’s done tonight to help propel her message,” Gullatt said.

Fifth news item:

Speaking of optimism:

(Cross-posted at The Jury Talks Back.)

–Dana

107 Responses to “Weekend Open Thread”

  1. Good morning.

    Dana (aaddb1)

  2. Step 1. Ya gotta go Keto or go on the Biggest Loser and keep it off. I know those are 2 different camps. Message is almost secondary, Ms. Abrams.

    urbanleftbehind (cf625f)

  3. Not only do I object to Trump’s stance on trade, I object to his stance.

    Paul Montagu (e1b5a7)

  4. Paul,
    I met Trump once in his younger days. I’m 6’4″, or at least was in 93, and he was at best nose level. Probably 6′ maybe 6’1″ in shoes. I was wearing standard biz-casual shoes and he was in a suit. I’ve shrunk about an inch overall, he’s more than 20 years older, so he’s have shrunk at least that much. He was in better shape then, and he was a fattie, not trying to be mean.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (5cde89)

  5. https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Trumps-game-changing-speech-of-the-century-616005

    I think our allies in Israel prefer this administration to the previous one.

    NJRob (4d595c)

  6. Col., if you knew then what you know, that have been a great episode of Quantum Leap.

    urbanleftbehind (cf625f)

  7. https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/01/31/anti-police-protest/

    This is what happens when you encourage leftism and would be coming soon to the rest of the nation if the left wins the presidency.

    NJRob (4d595c)

  8. “I object to his stance.”

    The front half of a centaur.

    Davethulhu (fe4242)

  9. The left is complaining that McConnell has stretched the trial into next week in order to prevent Senators Warren, Sanders, Klobuchar, and Bennett from being at the Iowa caucuses next week. But I read on Twitter (so clearly it is true) that the Democrats didn’t want the Trump acquittal to take place before the SOTU because they didn’t want to give him the opportunity to preen (not that he won’t anyway). So in reality, this is allegedly a Pelosi-McConnell collaboration.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  10. I’m glad Trump’s taking advice on the Coronavirus from OUR agencies instead of Turkey’s or that most excellent medical doctor, Sean Hanity.

    Also, Stacy Abrams needs some kind of significant political experience before she runs for president. Unless she wants be the Beto O’Rourke of 2024 which, I guess, would be fair enough, if that’s what she wants.

    Nic (896fdf)

  11. John Noonan
    @noonanjo
    We just banned every Chinese national from entry to the United States due to a WHO Global Health Emergency and the press is obsessing over a procedural whip count in an impeachment trial Americans tuned out a month ago.
    __ _

    BlackTrain
    @BlackTrain
    ·
    It’s obvious that TDS is a more serious virus than one that could literally kill thousands. But the media has it’s own set of priorities and talking points.

    ___

    Heh

    The Derringer
    @DerringerThe
    ·
    Heroic Coronavirus Patient Refuses Treatment Until Medical Staff Gets More Diversity

    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  12. Stacy Abrams needs some kind of significant political experience before she runs for president.

    Um, no she doesn’t: Donald Trump

    Dana (aaddb1)

  13. That we can now discuss a viral contagion that could mutate and kill millions is proof that impeachment is over.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  14. Do you think the country will elect a woman president in the next 20 years?
    Stacey Abrams: Yes.

    Do you think they’ll elect a black woman?
    Stacey Abrams: Yes.

    FTR, I don’t know anyone who has any problems with electing a woman for president, black or white. I just know a lot of people, including myself, who simply don’t agree with the policies and platforms of women who have run for president thus far. It’s not hard: as with any candidate, if your policies, platform character line up with mine, I’ll giver you serious consideration.

    Dana (aaddb1)


  15. Stacy Abrams needs some kind of significant political experience before she runs for president.

    Um, no she doesn’t: Donald Trump

    You’re saying that a few ghostwritten books, a cameo in a family movie, and a stint as a reality TV host ought to do it? Does she need a cross-promotion with WWE to seal the deal?

    JVW (54fd0b)

  16. Heh. Clearly candidates no longer need any political experience to run for the presidency, or even win the presidency. The prescident has been set. No backsies.

    (Reminder that Abrams already has political experience: Served in the Georgia House of Representatives from 2006 to 2017, and served as minority leader from 2011 to 2017. )

    Dana (aaddb1)

  17. Michael Avenatti is the Dems best hope right now.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  18. @13 Yes, but look how that has turned out.
    @17 That doesn’t meet my bar for Presidential level decision making.

    Nic (896fdf)

  19. 15 Dana (aaddb1) — 2/1/2020 @ 10:52 am

    I just know a lot of people, including myself, who simply don’t agree with the policies and
    platforms of women who have run for president thus far.

    No, you silly rube. You are clearly racist and sexist and you are just using an excuse to keep being racist and sexist. I will begin Doxxing you in 3…2…1…

    WaBlogLog (35e44f)

  20. yes, yes, mr. donald trump, who likes to be called Donyeshka when mr. putin whispers sweet nothings into his ear, has proven the adage that in america any child can become president

    he is inspirational that way

    nk (9651fb)

  21. Belmont collage which bought nashville art school has ordered all non fundos be fired. Sow the wind reap the whirlwind. its biblical!

    asset (c93515)

  22. he is inspirational that way

    everyone with a chris matthews tingly feeling raise your um leg

    Dave (1bb933)

  23. Col., if you knew then what you know, that have been a great episode of Quantum Leap.

    I wouldn’t kill a baby Hitler, or a baby Trump, but IIKTWIKN, “accidentally” bumping him off the pier in Atlantic City might have been worthwhile.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (5cde89)

  24. Does he swim? Or is the big wet water too scary.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (5cde89)

  25. Kicking myself for not buying a surgical mask factory a month ago…

    I’d estimate that about 10-20% of the student population at UCI are wearing surgical masks to class now (and no, it’s not just *my* class…), including some very stylish ones that were clearly not intended for the operating room.

    We found out yesterday that coronavirus may impact the already very tight schedule for my new experiment (the metal blocks for our magnet, and one piece of the electronics, are being made in China).

    Dave (1bb933)

  26. Does he swim?

    He walks on water, duh.

    Dave (1bb933)

  27. Appearently there are a couple of Coronavirus cases at Miami (Ohio) University and we were in Oxford today, LOTS of masked kids. Of course, surgical masks aren’t to keep airborne germs out, for anyway so they’re next to useless.

    A surgical mask, also known as a procedure mask, is intended to be worn by health professionals during surgery and during nursing to catch the bacteria shed in liquid droplets and aerosols from the wearer’s mouth and nose. They are not designed to protect the wearer from inhaling airborne bacteria or virus particles and are less effective than respirators, such as N95 or NIOSH masks, which provide better protection due to their material, shape and tight seal.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (5cde89)

  28. Of course, surgical masks aren’t to keep airborne germs out, for anyway so they’re next to useless.

    OK boomer

    Dave (1bb933)

  29. Belmont collage which bought nashville art school has ordered all non fundos be fired. Sow the wind reap the whirlwind. its biblical!

    This is where the crybullies are going to take us if they get their way. Since courts are telling religious institutions that they are not allowed to enforce their beliefs on students, faculty, and staff unless they restrict enrollment and employment to co-believers, schools like Belmont and your local Catholic school now are in the position of either knuckling under to the crybully agenda or retrenching into their own hives.

    If you don’t like Belmont College firing the non-Evangelicals on the staff, then it would help if you would oppose forcing Belmont to adopt the voguish mores of aggressive secularism.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  30. I’d estimate that about 10-20% of the student population at UCI are wearing surgical masks to class now (and no, it’s not just *my* class…), including some very stylish ones that were clearly not intended for the operating room.

    I saw a funny (in a sad sort of way) meme earlier today about how we should all protect ourselves by going on amazon.com and buying bulk disposable surgical masks at a good price, made in — you guessed it — China.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  31. He walks on water, duh.

    Shame on anyone not knowing this by now.

    Dana (aaddb1)

  32. Belmont U. crapped its shot at joining the faux Catholic (plus 1 nondenom) but great at basketball Big East.

    urbanleftbehind (284a50)

  33. Honestly though, as someone with a compromised immune system, if I was in a place where there was a high concentration of exchange students from areas hit by the virus, I’d feel safer with a surgical mask on. Even if it was just to tell myself I was safer with it.

    Dana (aaddb1)

  34. Klink: Oxford, Miss or J R R Tolkien’s Oxford?

    Dave: I’m now curious about your experiment…

    Dana (aaddb1)

  35. Oxford Ohio.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (5cde89)

  36. Some Asian students wear surgical masks when *they* are ill with a cold, attempting to reduce any risk of infecting others.

    Dave (1bb933)

  37. Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    With Republican elected officials in full acquiescence mode, Republican donors in full rationalization mode, and Republican voters in full tribalism mode, what’s a Never Trump Republican to do? Presumably what we can to help Democrats be as responsible an alternative as possible?
    __ _

    Stephen Miller
    @redsteeze
    They’re not going to let you pick their nominee, Bill.
    __ _

    TheEschaton’sJanitor
    @TEJanitor
    ·
    Hell, they’re not going to let their own voters pick their nominee.

    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  38. Bill Kristol in self parody mode.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  39. Dave: I’m now curious about your experiment…

    Well then check out our fancy webpage!

    (Actually we’ve been too busy to put a lot of effort into it, but it’s a start…)

    Here’s a blurb on the the magnets I mentioned. They’re the three long, horizontal cylinders in the image of the detector on the main page.

    Dave (1bb933)

  40. Re #38- That might be the secret sauce for Bloomberg; lots of Venn circle convergence between Never-Trump and ….

    urbanleftbehind (284a50)

  41. …but they got to figure out a way to have convenient family events and new jobs starting in suburban Milwaukee, Detroit, and Pittsburgh in late October early November.

    urbanleftbehind (284a50)

  42. David Brooks. I just watched his comments regarding impeachment on the PBS news-hour. What a confused, silly man he is. This was his take:

    1. After hearing Trump’s Ukrainian phone call he thought “Trump did it. Trump really did it”
    2. By mid-September 2019 he was convinced Trump must be Impeached and REMOVED.
    3. However, now that it looks like he’s going to be acquitted…
    4. He’s NOW glad Trump wasn’t REMOVED!

    Of course, this is the man who fell in love with Obama due to the crease in his trousers.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  43. Of course, David Brooks then went to attack Trump, and PBS for balance turned to Ruth Marcus, who attacked Trump in even stronger language. That’s basically the PBS idea of balance, A liberal who hates Trump, and a Conservative who dislikes Trump a lot.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  44. Severely conservative Max Boot says:

    I was recently asked if I would ever rejoin the Republican Party after having registered as an independent the day after President Trump’s election in 2016. The answer is an emphatic no

    rcocean (1a839e)

  45. I seriously doubt anyone would be vapid enough to ask Boot that.

    Confidential to all who want everyone to know they’re leaving a party: Nobody cares. So, go ahead and invent fake concern.

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  46. The Republicans are playing a dangerous game. In thrall to Trump, their refusal to call witnesses and subpoena documents legitimizes a lawless president, who invites, welcomes and coerces foreign interference in our elections. It’s a Pandora’s box, because it’s tacit approval for every politician to do so.

    The old saying goes, the Democrats are the corrupt party and the Republicans are the stupid party. Now it’s the other way around, except the Republicans are the stupid and corrupt party, while the Democrats are the corrupt but not stupid party.

    I’ve never voted for a Democrat on a state or national ticket. Now I won’t vote for a Republican, not one who supports, defends and excuses Trump.

    Where are the governors in all this mess? This spiraling deficit spending, adding to the national debt of $23 trillion by $1 trillion a year. What happened to limited government, fiscal responsibility, individual rights, and the rule of law? Apparently, that was all smoke and mirrors.

    The Republicans will come to regret this. I for one will not be voting for any of them, except at the state level. I continue to support governor Abbot, but senators Cornyn and Cruz are dead to me.

    I wish that Abbot would run for president. He’s been a very good governor. But the GOP is blocking primaries in favor of Trump. I wish that Amash would declare as an Independent or a Libertarian. I would vote for either of them. I will not vote for Trump or any Republican that excuses, defends and supports his illicit behavior.

    I won’t be watching the State of the Union address, because I know that Trump is only going to use it as a platform to brag about his invincibility, insult everyone who doesn’t show fealty, and talk about the Wall. You know, the one that hasn’t been built and that pre-existing sections of which were blown down by gusting winds.

    The GOP has become a joke of a party, because Republicans went all in for a total fraud.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  47. I believe you, Klink, about your height and Trump’s.

    Paul Montagu (e1b5a7)

  48. 16. JVW (54fd0b) — 2/1/2020 @ 11:07 am

    a few ghostwritten books, a cameo in a family movie, and a stint as a reality TV host ought to do it? Does she need a cross-promotion with WWE to seal the deal?

    Trump also gave an enormous number of radio and other interviews, and it got to be also that his name was mentioned in passing in a significant fraction of nonfiction books published betweeen 2005 and 2009.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  49. Dave,

    That’s a really impressive webpage. Thanks for linking it.

    Dana (aaddb1)

  50. The corona virus will:

    A) Be contained in short order

    B) Not be contained and we’ll give up the idea of trying to contain it – the flu is worse.

    c) Not be contained, and most trade with China will stop and there’ll be a recession.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  51. The idea of wearing masks is just Chinese Communist propaganda. They’re imposing the mask rule on their own people, but it’s nonsense and is just designed to make people feel safe. I think they may have a death rate as high as 1% because living conditions are overcrowded in cities in China now.

    Handwashing is what helps, and it prevents all other minor sicknesses too:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/opinion/coronavirus-prevention-tips.html

    I’ve worked as an emergency room physician. And as a New York Times correspondent in China, I covered the SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003 during which a novel coronavirus first detected in Guangdong sickened more than 8,000 people and killed more than 800. My two children attended elementary school in Beijing throughout the outbreak.

    Here are my main takeaways from that experience for ordinary people on the ground:

    1. Wash your hands frequently.

    2. Don’t go to the office when you are sick. Don’t send your kids to school or day care when they are ill, either.

    Notice I didn’t say anything about masks. Having a mask with you as a precaution makes sense if you are in the midst of an outbreak, as I was when out reporting in the field during those months. But wearing it constantly is another matter. I donned a mask when visiting hospitals where SARS patients had been housed. I wore it in the markets where wild animals that were the suspected source of the outbreak were being butchered, blood droplets flying. I wore it in crowded enclosed spaces that I couldn’t avoid, like airplanes and trains, as I traveled to cities involved in the outbreak, like Guangzhou and Hong Kong. You never know if the guy coughing and sneezing two rows ahead of you is ill or just has an allergy.

    But outdoors, infections don’t spread well through the air. Those photos of people walking down streets in China wearing masks are dramatic but uninformed. And remember if a mask has, perchance, intercepted viruses that would have otherwise ended up in your body, then the mask is contaminated. So, in theory, to be protected maybe you should use a new one for each outing…

    …Though viruses spread through droplets in the air, a bigger worry to me was always transmission via what doctors call “fomites,” infected items. A virus gets on a surface — a shoe or a doorknob or a tissue, for example. You touch the surface and then next touch your face or rub your nose. It’s a great way to acquire illness. So after walking in the animal markets, I removed my shoes carefully and did not take them into the hotel room. And of course I washed my hands immediately…

    …Faced with SARS, many foreigners chose to leave Beijing or at least to send their children back to the United States. Our family stayed, kids included. We wanted them with us and didn’t want them to miss school, especially during what would be their final year in China. But equally important in making the decision was that the risk of getting SARS on an airplane or in the airport seemed greater than being smart and careful while staying put in Beijing.,,

    ..The International School of Beijing, where my children were students, was one of the few in the capital — perhaps the only one — that stayed open throughout the SARS outbreak, though the classes were emptier, since so many kids had departed to their home countries. It was a studied but brave move, since a parent at the school had gotten SARS at the very beginning of the outbreak on a flight back from Hong Kong. She recovered fine, but it was close to home and families were scared.

    The school instituted a bunch of simple precautionary policies: a stern note to parents reminding them not to send a child to school who was sick and warning them that students would be screened for fevers with ear thermometers at the school door. There was no sharing of food at lunch. The teacher led the kids in frequent hand washing throughout the day at classroom sinks, while singing a prolonged “hand washing song” to ensure they did more than a cursory pass under the faucet with water only.

    If a family left Beijing and came back, the child would have to stay at home for an extended period before returning to class to make sure they hadn’t caught SARS elsewhere.

    With those precautions in place, I observed something of a public health miracle: Not only did no child get SARS, but it seemed no student was sick with anything at all for months on end. No stomach bugs. No common colds. Attendance was more or less perfect.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  52. @51 I’m hoping for A. Math makes B unlikely. I’m expecting C.

    frosty (f27e97)

  53. 47, Gawain’s Ghost (b25cd1) — 2/1/2020 @ 5:59 pm

    talk about the Wall. You know, the one that hasn’t been built

    And the one that he says Mexico is in fact paying
    for.

    https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-milwaukee-rally-transcript-trump-holds-rally-during-iowa-democratic-debate

    Donald Trump: (27:28)
    You know with the wall, we’re building the wall. You know that right? [inaudible 00:27:36] And by the way, they think they caught me. They never catch us. Because Mexico’s paying for the wall. You know that. You’ll see that. It’s all worked out. Mexico’s paying. It’s driving them crazy. Now they say, “Okay, he’s building the wall. But Mexico didn’t pay.” Mexico will pay. And here’s the thing. You’ll see that it’ll come out. We’ll do it sometime during the debate or maybe before. Our debate, the real debate that people are going to watch, because nobody’s watching.

    On the one hand he says “you know that” but on the other hand he says” You’ll see that…it’ll come out.”

    He seems to be saying he’ll spring the proof that Mexico is paying for the wall during a general election debate.

    But I think his policy of trying to avoid helping people who are not American citizens,, even at the expense of doing nothing, is worse.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/us/politics/trump-trafficking.html

    Representatives of other groups said that the Trump administration was prioritizing American trafficking victims over noncitizens seeking help. For example, some asylum-seeking migrants who have described themselves as trafficking victims have had to wait in the most dangerous parts of Mexico for their court hearings.

    The White House, for its part, continues to focus on trafficking that occurs within the country’s borders. At the White House on Friday, Ms. Trump placed special emphasis on “domestic” trafficking, and called up a victim from the Atlanta area to share her story….

    …“Many of the policies promoted and adopted under this administration have not been beneficial and have been quite harmful to trafficking survivors,” Ms. Bruggeman said, noting that a $13.5 million grant to provide housing to trafficking victims was held up without explanation after an initial funding announcement said the money could support noncitizens.
    d.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  54. @52 Security theater: The world wide phenomenon.

    @54 I would have more confidence in Trump fighting trafficking if he wasn’t personal friends with so many customers.

    Nic (896fdf)

  55. the biggest problem with dirty chineser super-germ scares is that people take extra precautions and they don’t get sick from regular germs either

    this hurts doctors and pharmacists in a big way

    their children cry in the night because they have no Guccis

    but nobody thinks about that

    nk (9651fb)

  56. A worthless wall, a fitting monument to a worthless orange, Kishnevi.

    nk (9651fb)

  57. If only Mexico and parts south had electoral votes. Maybe #NeverTrump can get to work on that.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/17/illegal-immigrants-lying-wait-trump-lose-election/

    Munroe (dd6b64)

  58. About the Emory incident…since I am an alumnus…I just have to wonder how these students would have handled some of the stuff that went on when I was a student there (late 70s). We had a Kappa Alpha chapter, and while many people took a dim view of their Old South ball, it was held in full glory in downtown Atlanta every year. That’s the one where the ladies dressed up as ante bellum belles and the fraternity brothers wore Confederate uniforms. The percentage of minority students was miniscule: about 20 black students, roughly 1% of the undergraduates.

    Kishnevi (573b0b)

  59. Richard Baris
    @Peoples_Pundit
    DMR NOT releasing their poll tonight. Holy cow, folks.
    __ _

    Richard Baris
    @Peoples_Pundit
    ·
    There’s one thing that strikes me very odd.

    For those who don’t know, we don’t collect respondent data and process the results within minutes.

    That’s not how it works.

    @CNN
    hyped it and canceled at the last minute. No one knew there was a problem until now?

    Very odd.
    __ _

    KB
    @KingBroly
    ·
    two thoughts: WHAT?

    and

    lolcnn
    __ _

    “ Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa Poll. Today, a respondent raised an issue with the way the survey was administered, which could have compromised the results of the poll. It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate.

    While this appears to be isolated to one surveyor, we cannot confirm that with certainty. Therefore, the partners made the difficult decision to not to move forward with releasing the Iowa Poll.

    The Register has published the Iowa Poll for 76 years, and it is considered the gold standard in political polling. Selzer & Co., which conducts the poll, is recognized for its excellence in polling. It is imperative whenever an Iowa Poll is released that there is confidence that the data accurately reflects Iowans’ opinions.”
    __ _

    Current Affairs
    @curaffairs
    ·
    RELEASE THE POLL. All you need to do is add an asterisk saying that one voter raised an issue and it should be judged accordingly. Unless….. it isn’t really about that?
    __ _

    Anteater
    @PDugov
    ·
    Wait… a single respondent made an unverifiable complaint about the interviewer, so the whole thing was trashed? What a precedent to set.
    __ _

    Dirty Deuce
    @DeuceDirty
    ·
    Looks like the wrong person came out on top of this poll.

    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  60. That’s the one where the ladies dressed up as ante bellum belles and the fraternity brothers wore Confederate uniforms.

    Dang. Did the bros have to have their own Confederate uniforms custom tailored, or can you still buy those from the Army-Navy Surplus store in downtown Atlanta?

    JVW (54fd0b)

  61. Des moines register/cnn iowa democrat presidential poll was scraped and spiked by cnn because it showed bernie sanders winning iowa as zucker says not on my cable channel!

    asset (c3d9aa)

  62. Wait… a single respondent made an unverifiable complaint about the interviewer, so the whole thing was trashed? What a precedent to set.

    If it was not a robocall, individual interviewerss read the questions. It could be assumed there’ll be occasional mistakes. You could even assume in 3% or 4% of the cases and it wouldn’t affect the poll too much.

    Of course, they’d want to check out if a name was left ff the list for everyone but that should be easy. Except that the are no longer using paper and the interviewers read them off a screen.

    They can just check of Buttigieg was mentioned as a choice a good percentage of the time. And call back a few of the respondents wo named him and ask them whether they volunteered the name. Also ask other interviewers if the name was missing. I think they should know what interviewer did what survey.
    __ _
    Now if, let’s say, Buttigieg was nor read in 4% of the completed surveys, it still should be possible to adjust for that one way or another.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  63. The situation is like this: Biden is spending all of his money in an attempt to stay in the lead in Iowa. He expects that f he wins donations will pour in. I think he can be in the lead, and massive new contributions still not come in.

    Biden has a danger of spiraling down. Now he will do just about as well with or without advertising in the next three states and is expected to do very well in South Carolina because the black vote doesn’t know where else to go.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  64. Donald Trump: (27:28)
    You know with the wall, we’re building the wall. You know that right? [inaudible 00:27:36] And by the way, they think they caught me. They never catch us. Because Mexico’s paying for the wall. You know that. You’ll see that. It’s all worked out. Mexico’s paying. It’s driving them crazy. Now they say, “Okay, he’s building the wall. But Mexico didn’t pay.” Mexico will pay. And here’s the thing. You’ll see that it’ll come out. We’ll do it sometime during the debate or maybe before. Our debate, the real debate that people are going to watch, because nobody’s watching.

    Shorter Trump: If I fed you rubes horse manure and told you it was prime rib, you’d come back for a second helping, so … bon appetit!

    Dave (1bb933)

  65. 51 53. crona virus

    I think they start on the road so C, get scared, go back to B and say it’s A, or that there are so few cases, and the number of cases is declining and it’s not really serious so it doesn’t mater

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  66. @65. Makes sense Mr. Finkelman. And CNN is desperate for Biden to win so spiked Buttagieg. All of which helps Bernie. Bernie is the Trump of the left. And CNN is showing itself to be an arm of the DNC (or, confirming it. i know you guys already knew that). The DNC is terrified. The NYTimes is increasingly frightened of Bernie, publishing an OpEd saying Bernie can’t win ( the arguments were specious imo). This was a piece by Tim Egan, a guy who writes eloquently about the West. he should stay out of politics though.

    BTW I wonder what some of you Hillary haters thought of common having Rashida Tlaib, at least briefly.

    JRH (52aed3)

  67. Man the desperation stinks. Bernie ascendant. Crazy times.

    JRH (52aed3)

  68. whoops. “*having common cause with”

    JRH (52aed3)

  69. “here’s your Iowa Poll” says someone on twitter.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPvLIZ7XUAE1z_r?format=jpg&name=large

    JRH (52aed3)

  70. I’ve had common cause with Rashida Tlaib since she said “Impeach the mother-figure”.

    nk (9651fb)

  71. haha! Cheers. Happy Sunday.

    JRH (52aed3)

  72. Sanders in the lead in IA is not a surprise, it’s that Warren hasn’t dropped to single digits. Like Dean in 04, I feel Sanders might have made it closer in 16 but still wouldn’t have won.

    urbanleftbehind (7db997)

  73. @67 You’re implying “they” can choose? I suppose they can choose what to report. Last year was an outlier for flu deaths and it was largely downplayed. But it’s hard to downplay quarantines at this scale. Even if other countries keep the virus contained and the current Chinese data is accurate there’s reason to expect the Chinese economy to take a big hit. And there’s reasons to think those to assumptions won’t hold.

    frosty (f27e97)

  74. What do polls mean in a caucus state? Aren’t caucuses just for the apparatchiks? The cigar-and-pinkie ring boys, precinct captains, and kafee-klatch election day volunteers?

    nk (9651fb)

  75. JRH, did you and “mg” swap shifts?

    urbanleftbehind (7db997)

  76. Today’s Gospel in my Church is Luke 2:25-42, The Presentation of our Lord and Savior in the Temple.

    At that time, there was a man in Jerusalem, whose name was Symeon, and this man was righteous and devout, looking for the consolation of Israel, and the Holy Spirit was upon him. And it had been revealed to him by the Holy Spirit that he should not see death before he had seen the Lord’s Christ. And inspired by the Spirit he came into the temple; and when the parents brought in the child Jesus, to do for him according to the custom of the law, he took him up in his arms and blessed God and said, “Lord, now let your servant depart in peace, according to your word; for my eyes have seen your salvation which you have prepared in the presence of all peoples, a light for revelation to the Gentiles, and for glory to your people Israel.”

    https://www.goarch.org/chapel/lectionary?type=MG&code=378&event=410

    The Bach Cantata is BWV 82, Simeon’s Song of Praise.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NIwcYTxR398

    nk (9651fb)

  77. “ What do polls mean in a caucus state? ”

    I have a buddy in the GOP org in Dubuque and he said the DMR poll usually can give a significant lift to the leaders. Not sure if it has as more or less effect than the DMR endorsement (Warren a few days ago).

    I don’t think who won (the poll) matters much to the country at all. To me the issue is watching the Left, the Democrats and their partners in media going out of their way to tell Trump to hold their beer while the voters look on, trying to decide who’s less insane.

    harkin (d6cfee)

  78. John Harwood
    @JohnJHarwood
    deleted a tweet because I made a tabulation mistake. 23 of 51 Senate GOP votes to block Bolton testimony came from states of the old Confederacy, not 25. apologies for the error
    __ _

    Jimmy
    @JimmyPrinceton

    When something like this happens do you email Podesta a link to the revised tweet or just leave it as is? Also I think your math is still wrong.
    __ _

    Jack Pitney
    @jpitney
    ·
    23 were from slave states: 19 from Confederate states plus 2 each from KY and MO, slave states that remained in the Union.
    __ _

    Tim Young
    @TimRunsHisMouth
    ·
    Mmhmm… so clearly a vote against having witnesses in the impeachment trial means they’re about to bring slavery back.

    It’s plain as day if you do drugs while suffering from TDS.
    _ _

    Raised by Wolves
    @playbirdiegolf
    ·
    Never have @donlemon do your math
    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  79. Because David French is behind a paywall and one of the few conservatives who aren’t in the bag, here’s a healthy cut-and-paste:

    If Trump is acquitted on that basis, I’ll believe it’s the wrong decision, but it will be no worse for the republic than the Democrats’ wrong decision in 1998 to deem Bill Clinton’s perjury and obstruction of justice “bad but not impeachable.” It will sadly solidify the trend of Congress acting not as a superior, independent branch of government but rather as a collection of partisan foot soldiers for the president.
    That’s a problem, no question, but it’s one that’s been developing slowly over decades. If, however, you want to take that problem, pump it full of steroids, and hop it up on meth, then by all means adopt the arguments of the president’s lawyers, his most loyal senators, and his most zealous defenders in the press. They’ve gone well beyond arguing “bad but not impeachable.” They’ve even gone beyond “perfect call.” We’re now approaching the territory of arguing that any non-criminal action taken in the president’s personal political interest cannot be corrupt because the president can rightly view his personal political interests as the equivalent of the national interest.
    […]
    Combine this with the Wall Street Journal’s continued insistence that a president’s corrupt motives for otherwise lawful acts cannot be grounds for impeachment and removal, and you’re setting the stage for an American politics that is characterized by deception, subterfuge, and abuse of power–including secretive abuses of power designed to influence election outcomes–justified at all times by the omnipresent claim that the alternative to political victory is national catastrophe.
    Let’s be clear, this argument is not “let the people decide.” Moreover, as I argued at length in a previous newsletter, it’s exactly contrary to the intent of the Founders. Instead, this argument is more accurately described as the assertion that the success of the politician is too important to be left to a fair election. The president can abuse his power to influence the public so long as he doesn’t clearly commit a crime.
    The argument that improper conduct was bad but not impeachable (or not worth removal) carries with it a rather explicit rebuke. It contains a bipartisan rejection of misconduct. The Dershowitz argument, by contrast, carries with it an explicit grant of permission for abuse of power rationalized by one of the most destructive (and seductive) forms of self-interest–the idea that a president’s personal political success is necessary to protect the republic. That’s a royal impulse, not a republican impulse, and it places the imperial presidency on a whole new plane of impunity.

    Paul Montagu (e1b5a7)

  80. Mr Finkelman wrote:

    Some votes for a third party candidate can send that message too, without the risk of being mistaken for an endorsement.

    Having believed the polls in 2016, and knowing that the Keystone State had not been carried by a Republican since 1988, I assumed that my vote would not count. I could not, and would never, ever, have voted for the odious Hillary Clinton, thought that I could express my disgust for the equally odious Mr Trump by voting third party, and cast my ballot for Gary Johnson. I had some hope that the Libertarian candidate might crack 5% of the vote.

    Well, to my surprise, Mr Trump carried Pennsylvania without my vote.

    What’s that, you ask? Why do I support President Trump today if I thought him to be odious? It is because policy is what matters, not personality. Even if the Democratic nominee this year is as pure as the wind-driven snow, his policies will be brown, muddy slush, and harmful to the United States. Dave said, well above, “I think the country would be better off after 4 years of incrementally higher taxes and welfare spending under a nominally sane Democrat than it would it would after 4 more years of the deranged, sociopathic imbecile currently occupying the White House.” The problem is that there are no ‘nominally sane Democrats’ running for President. Forget Senators Warren and Sanders: Joe Biden is fully on the cockamamie ‘green new deal’ program, and supports gutting our Second Amendment rights. He would gut programs to combat illegal immigration, reinstate DACA, increase the numbers of refugees admitted, push labor unionization, push race-based sentencing in law enforcement, and push the idiotic Title IX standards the Obysmal Administration wrote. The judges he would appoint would be horrible.

    Yeah, we could survive ‘incrementally higher taxes’ — I opposed the tax cuts until spending was cut first, and spending was never cut — and even welfare spending, if those were the only things about which we would have to worry. But they aren’t, and everybody knows that they aren’t.

    The Dana in Kentucky (b49bca)

  81. David French is such a fraud. He acts like Mr. Super Christian, Conservative Principles Man, and then writers in misleading dishonest way about things and people he dislikes. why not write about things in straight-forward honest way, instead of always distorting reality?

    Trump almost got removed in a shambpeachment by partisan Democrats. No one thinks the impeachment inquiry was done in a deliberate, thoughtful, bi-partisan manner. The American people were not OUTRAGED at holding up aid to Ukraine, most of them don’t give a flip about the Ukraine. Nobody except the Democrats and Never trumpers thought Withholding aid was a HIGH CRIME. And if it was, then almost every POTUS since Washington should have been impeached.

    That Rev. French thinks Trump and Clinton’s Impeachment were equal just shows how dishonest he is. Clinton lied under oath, and tried to obstruct justice by getting other to lie under oath. WHILE PRESIDENT! This was not found because of some House “Lets get Clinton” inquiry, it was found by the Special Prosecutor, and there was ZERO doubt he did it. The man presenting the House case in 1998 was actually a Democrat. The R Senators didn’t want to have a trial, but were forced by the facts and the country.

    With Trump there was no crime. There was no High Crime. Some people don’t even agree that Trump did anything wrong. And the whole case was built on a partisan house investigation which rushed through the process, without R input, to get the impeachment done by Christmas. In the House impeachment vote, not a single R voted for it. Several D’s voted against it. The final vote was 228 D – R’s -0.
    Then Pelosi considered the whole thing such a joke that she held it up for a month. That’s how seriously she took it.

    But to Rev. French these two situations are the same. What.A. Fraud.

    rcocean (1a839e)

  82. 76. nk (9651fb) — 2/2/2020 @ 5:14 am

    What do polls mean in a caucus state?

    They try to adjust it for turnout and also the way caucuses work..

    CBS had a poll. They showed both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders at 25-25 each. Buttigieg at 21%. Elizabeth Warren at 16% and Amy Klobuchar at 5% – all others below 5%.

    The CBS polltaker noted that this could be affected by the fact there’s a second round for those who get below 15% in the precinct or don’t pick a candidate. Amy Klobuchar’s supporter’s would tend more to go to Biden, and so for most others, and that would benefit Biden, but Elizabeth Warren, who might not be able to reach the threshhold in some precincts even in the second round, or who might have people leave the group and break it up, would have more of her people go to Bernie. That could add a percentage or two to Biden or Bernie and/or switch the lead.

    Biden’s support is more evenly distributed within the state, so we could have Bernie winning the popular vote and Biden winning the delegate vote.

    Michael Bloomberg has begun advertising in Iowa. Whether that’s because he hopes he might get a delegate or two, or because he’s after support in later levels of caucuses, or his advertising is aimed at the staff and volunteers of other candidates, I don’t know. Tom Brokaw says he keeps o being asked about Michael Bloomberg by voters in Iowa.

    The results will be reported in two ways: Initial division in the first go round, and delegate equivalents. The Iowa Democratic party hasn’t done anything but delegate equivalents on the past.

    Equivalents I guess supposes that any division will carry over to the next higher level where there also is a 15% threshold, and I don’t know how they handle candidates who don’t meet it. Drop them (which is the same as assuming they split evenly among all viable candidates)

    There’s another thing. Amy Klobuchar says she polled at 13% in two polls, and Michael Bloomberg has
    has hit 10% I think in a national poll

    Isn’t caucuses just for the apparatchiks?

    Not in Iowa. Too much advertising and it goes on for approximately one year before the caucuses. Turnout might hit 300,000.

    The cigar-and-pinkie ring boys, precinct captains, and kafee-klatch election day volunteers?

    Those are the people who might attend the Republican caucuses this year. The caucuses also handle some other party business.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  83. nk (9651fb) — 2/2/2020 @ 7:09 am

    Make straight a highway for God.

    felipe (023cc9)

  84. 80. The Dana in Kentucky (b49bca) — 2/2/2020 @ 9:58 am

    The problem is that there are no ‘nominally sane Democrats’ running for President.

    There’s Michael Bloomberg, but on the other hand, he’s not really a Democrat. And he may be crazy about a few things. One panelist on a TV interview show or was that Chuck Todd himself? said if there was a Bernie Bloomberg race the race would be between two people who weren’t Democrats – at least not five years ago.

    I am interested in who would, or would need rig investigations or take advantage of leaks.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  85. What Chuck Todd defintely did say was that both parties had broken up (changed) but they kept their (old) names

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  86. David French:

    Democrats’ wrong decision in 1998 to deem Bill Clinton’s perjury and obstruction of justice “bad but not impeachable.”

    It wasn’t really what he should have been impeached for (better would have been the murder of the Branch Davidians in Waco – it needed to be proven though – or facilitating the genocide in Rwanda.

    I think if a president in a particularly bad you could vote yes, even though it really shouldn’t be cause for removal by itself.

    It should be noted that similar conduct by a Senator or a member of the House of Representatives would probably have gotten him expelled, or being forced to resign by a combination of promises and threats. So in 1999 they were holding the president to a lower standard than a member of Congress.

    But then, the office is more consequential, even if is not a case of a switch in party.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  87. then writers in misleading dishonest way about things and people he dislikes

    If dishonesty is such a terrible sin, why is it okay for Trump to lie with astonishing regulatory — and bad for other people to call him out on his lies?

    Trumpsters will never admit that there are reasons to dislike Trump based on what he does and the kind of person he is. They prefer to imagine that the “dislike” is completely arbitrary and the reasons are merely excuses.
    That’s the only way they can justify their own unconditional reverence for a horrible human being.

    And it’s always funny when Trump-worshipers call other people “frauds” because they won’t fall in line with the cult.

    Radegunda (0e8745)

  88. “ Two students at St John’s College wrote to Andrew Parker, the principal bursar, this week requesting a meeting to discuss the protesters’ demands, which are that the college “declares a climate emergency and immediately divests from fossil fuels”. They say that the college, the richest in Oxford, has £8 million of its £551 million endowment fund invested in BP and Shell.

    Professor Parker responded with a provocative offer. “I am not able to arrange any divestment at short notice,” he wrote. “But I can arrange for the gas central heating in college to be switched off with immediate effect. Please let me know if you support this proposal.”

    https://hotair.com/archives/john-s-2/2020/01/31/students-demanded-disinvestment-fossil-fuels-professor-offered-turn-off-heat/
    _

    Nice to know some universities are still providing lessons.
    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  89. Calling David French a “fraud” because he doesn’t reflexively defend Trump is about as intellectually creditable as saying that John Bolton and Jim Mattis and John Kelly “didn’t have what it took” to be competent in their jobs (as the presidential son-in-law claimed).

    In Trumpworld, having “what it takes” means being uncritically subservient to Donald Trump, and being honest means defending Trump at all times.

    Radegunda (0e8745)

  90. With Trump there was no crime. There was no High Crime.

    That is indeed the condemnable Dershowitz position, but it doesn’t explain how that makes French a “fraud”.

    Paul Montagu (cf9ba4)

  91. Coronavirus task force another example of Trump administration’s lack of diversity

    These people are beyond parody.

    Bored Lawyer (56c962)

  92. 84. Amy Klobuchar says she got 13% in an Iowa poll. No two. Here s one f them:

    http://emersonpolling.com/2020/01/27/iowa-2020-sanders-solidifies-frontrunner-status-in-iowa-while-klobuchar-nears-viability

    This one, taken January 23-26 and released Monday January 27, had Senator Bernie Sanders at 30% (!) former V.P. Joe Biden at 21%, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar at 13% and Senator Elizabeth Warren and at 11% and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 10%.

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)


  93. NBC Politics
    @NBCPolitics
    John Kerry — one of Biden’s highest-profile endorsers — overheard Sunday on phone at Des Moines hotel explaining what he would have to do to enter the presidential race amid “the possibility of Bernie Sanders taking down the Democratic Party— down whole.”

    __ _

    I’m telling you folks, the clowns have their makeup on but are just getting warmed up.

    They’ve just begun assembling the Ferris Wheel and the animals are still in the railroad cars.

    2020 gonna be off the hook!
    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  94. The rich get richer ….

    nk (9651fb)

  95. Kerry was evidently explaining why he wouldn’t jump into he presidential race. Some people still remember 1968 when candidates jumped in late and were listed on the ballot in primaries without their consent. (some laws maybe provided they could sign a statement asking to be taken off)

    Are some people worried that Joe Biden’s support could, or is, falling apart? If so, it may be the Streisand effect

    I can’t otherwise see what John Kerry has over Joe Biden. He’s a little younger (born December 11, 1943) than Joe Biden (born November 20, 1942)

    For comparison Bernie Sanders was born September 8, 1941, and Michael Bloomberg on February 14, 1942.

    I’m not sure what’s going on here. “Don’t trust anyone under 75?”

    Donald Trump was born June 14, 1946, George W. Bush, July 6, 1946 and Bill Clinton is reported to have been born on August 19, 1946, but he probably changed his date of birth in 1969 to avoid the draft. (He’s the only politician in the 1980 Almanac of american Politics who has no date of birth listed, but only a month (August 1946)

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  96. Dangerou blunders fora poor person to make:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/01/28/upshot/administrative-burden-quiz.html

    1. Do you have paper mail you plan to read that has been unopened for more than a week?

    Sammy Finkelman (083d4c)

  97. but he probably changed his date of birth in 1969 to avoid the draft

    I guess he figured “bone spurs” was too obvious.

    Dave (1bb933)

  98. As if being *both* Groundhog Day *and* Super Bowl Sunday wasn’t enough…

    Today is 02/02/2020 — the first global palindrome day in 909 years

    It is February 2, 2020, or 02/02/2020, in both the MM/DD/YYYY format and the DD/MM/YYYY format. At just after 2 a.m., it was 02:02:20 on 02/02/2020.

    This is the only time such a date will occur this century.

    The previous palindrome date in all formats came 909 years ago on 11/11/1111. The next will come in 101 years on 12/12/2121 and after that there will not be another until 03/03/3030.

    Dave (1bb933)

  99. PFTCommenter
    @PFTCommenter
    Its a palindrome superbowl- the date reads the same forward’s as it is backwards: 02022020. God does this in all his infinite wisdom so nerds will have something to talk about while evereyone else is getting drunk and understanding whats going on in sports

    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  100. Radegunda wrote:

    Trumpsters will never admit that there are reasons to dislike Trump based on what he does and the kind of person he is.

    Except I just did, in this thread, seven comments above yours. I simply consider that the alternative to President Trump is a tremendous peril to our economy and our society..

    The Dana in Kentucky (b49bca)


  101. CNN Condemns D-Day Soldiers For Lack Of Diversity

    https://babylonbee.com/news/cnn-criticizes-d-day-soldiers-for-lack-of-diversity

    heh

    harkin (d6cfee)

  102. Terrorist shot dead after stabbing two people in south London attack is named as Sudesh Amman, 20, who was freed just days ago after serving jail term for distributing extremist material

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7958927/Suspect-Streatham-terror-attack-named-Sudesh-Amman.html
    _

    harkin (d6cfee)

  103. CNN Condemns D-Day Soldiers For Lack Of Diversity

    The fact that there were only whites was the result of racial segregation, which *should* be condemned.

    White soldiers, especially from the south, refused to serve or train alongside blacks.

    Dave (1bb933)

  104. 102. There is no real alternative to Trump. There are just some politicians who are better at marketing themselves (like Trump) than others (like Hillary). There is not a dime’s worth of difference between Dems and Republicans and nothing important is going to change while we pretend that there is.

    Gryph (08c844)

  105. Hey, want to burn fat?

    GOOD NEWS
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    I have seen the result and its effective.
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    Ketosis Advanced (988074)


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