Update on UK Tanker Held by Iran
[Headline from DRJ]
Splash 247 — All British ships told to avoid Strait of Hormuz:
All British ships have been told by the UK government to avoid transiting the Strait of Hormuz for an indefinite period following Friday’s seizure of the UK-flagged Stena Impero tanker.
Iranian authorities have claimed the ship hit an Iranian fishing trawler, sparking a special forces operation to take the tanker, which has since been broadcast on local television.
Other British ships in the area have resorted to switching their AIS off while transiting in recent days.
The decision follows the release of audio from moments before the seizure:
The recording from maritime security risk firm Dryad Global was obtained by NBC News on Sunday. The U.K.’s Ministry of Defence confirmed its authenticity to NBC News.
“If you obey, you will be safe,” a member of the Iranian navy is heard telling the British-flagged tanker on the radio exchange, while demanding it change course.
A British naval officer aboard the HMS Montrose, according to a call sign referred to in the audio, responds with a warning to Iranian forces.
“Please confirm that you are not intending to violate international law by unlawfully attempting to board,” the British voice says.
The audio at the link includes the Iranians advising they wish to inspect the tanker “for security reasons” and the British warship Montrose responding that the Iranians “must not impair, impede, obstruct, or hamper the passage” of the MV Stena Impera tanker through international waters.
TankerTrackers confirms the Stena Impera appears to be moored near Bandar Abbas.
The incident(s) have triggered responses in the shipping industry:
Splash also understands that many shipowners are now discussing quitting the UK ship register, a flag that has already been hard hit in recent months with a significant exodus ahead of Brexit.
— DRJ
Here is a good summary of US policies in the region since WW II.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-21/missing-three-letter-word-iran-crisis
As the article notes the main beneficiaries of US policy in the last half on the century were primarily Europe and Japan, but they’ve both decreased their reliance on imported oil from the Middle East in recent years. That slack in consumption has been taken up by increased reliance in China and India, as their economies have been rapidly expanding. So the demand for oil and natural gas to supply energy needs isn’t going to decline significantly in the near future, if ever.
The Strait of Hormuz is the choke point, and Iran knows it. 30% of the world’s oil supply ships through there on a daily basis, and disrupting that flow would cause extreme distress throughout the global economy.
That’s why Saudi Arabia is revisiting its plan to build the Salman Canal system, which would connect the Arabian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz completely. It would travel from the Qatar peninsula and the UAE, through Saudi Arabia and on through Oman and Yemen.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-20/circumventing-straits-hormuz-time-dust-trans-arabia-canal-project
Expect a lot of conflict if this project gets underway, given the already ongoing war in Yemen. Iran certainly doesn’t want the Salman Canal to be built, as it will cut off its leverage in the Gulf, and will doubtless use its proxies to prevent it, if not declare war.
Then there are the competing pipelines, one backed by the US that would travel from Qatar therough Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria to Turkey; the other backed by Russia would travel from Iran through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean. Both are supplying oil and natural gas to Europe, and both must travel through Syria, hence the ongoing conflict in the country.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-10/competing-gas-pipelines-are-fueling-syrian-war-migrant-crisis
This is why Russia has allied with Syria and Turkey, which it just completed a major arms deal with. It’s also why Russia allied with Venezuela, for at least as long as it took gain majority control of Citgo, which owns four refineries and several pipelines in the US.
Iran feels emboldened, because it has allied with Syrian and Turkey and by extension Russia. It may be trying to provoke war to gain control of the Persian Gulf and maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Or the Mullahs and the Revolutionary Guard may be on a suicide mission.
Putin did warn Trump that US military action against Iran would lead to disaster, and he’s right. A war in Iran will not be like the war in Iraq, which did not exactly turn out well, or the war in Afghanistan, which is still ongoing. The Middle East is a tinderbox, always has been but not moreso than it is today.
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 7/22/2019 @ 12:28 amAlso, China has been receiving and storing millions of barrels of Iranian oil in large containers is its ports. Since the oil has not reached the point of sale, China is technically not in violation of US sanctions. However, China has been building up its navy so as to exert power in the South China Sea and to control the trade routes across and around the Pacific rim. Now it’s stocking up on Iranian crude, no doubt to sell to its trading partners should things take a turn for the worse in the Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-22/millions-barrels-iranian-crude-are-piling-chinese-ports
It’s an extremely volatile and chaotic situation. The Strait of Hormuz is scarcely wider than the British Channel. Those who remember history know that the Royal Navy was able to defeat the Spanish Armada is those waters, because the British had smaller, lighter, swifter ships. The larger, heavier, slower Spanish galleons were easy targets. That was one of those naval battles that changed the course of history, akin to Jefferson’s forming the US Marines to take on the Barbary pirates, and the battle of Midway in WW II.
Iran has been developing small swift attack crafts and mini-submarines for years. Large tankers and battleships must constantly report their location, but not these small vessels–they’re all under the radar.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7270909/Geopolitical-analyst-Phil-Diacon-details-Strait-Hormuz-chaotic-volatile.html
So Iran with these SACs, with high powered machine guns and rocket launchers, and mini-submarines with torpedoes, could easily take over or sink tankers, battleships, even air craft carriers. Sending a large naval force into the Persian Gulf, the Oman Gulf, the Arab Gulf would be a fool’s errand. Small, swift ships will take out large, slow ships every time.
If war breaks out in the region, who do you think Russia, Syria, Turkey, among others, and China will side with? India has also been building up its naval forces to gain control of the Indian Ocean, because it needs oil too. So do all the other countries on the Pacific rim.
What is really going on here is the disintegration of Pax Americana and the dissolution of NATO. It could get real ugly, real quick. The entire global economy is at risk here.
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 7/22/2019 @ 5:20 am