Patterico's Pontifications

11/15/2013

You Were Warned — And You Continue To Be Warned

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:28 am



John Boehner, July 22, 2009:

Tonight we’ll hear the president likely say some — repeat some of the myths that he’s been repeating over the last several months.

First he’ll say, if you — if you like your plan, you can keep it. But, clearly, under the Congressional Budget Office estimates, 23 million Americans will be forced out of their private health insurance into a government-run plan.

And Lewin and Associates, a consulting firm, health care experts, estimate that number could be as high as 114 million.

Paul Ryan, speaking at the vice-presidential debate, October 11, 2012:

Look at all the string of broken promises. If you like your health care plan, you can keep it. Try telling that to the 20 million people who are projected to lose their health insurance if Obamacare goes through or the 7-point million — 7.4 million seniors who are going to lose it.

After finding these quotes, I looked to see if they were accurate. The answer appears to be . . . yes and no. 20 million is the high end of the range; the worst-case scenario. 12 million is the lower end of the range.

As many as 20 million Americans could lose their employer-provided coverage because of President Obama’s healthcare reform law, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said in a new report Thursday.

The figure represents the worst-case scenario, CBO says, and the law could just as well increase the number of people with employer-based coverage by 3 million in 2019.

The best estimate, subject to a “tremendous amount of uncertainty,” is that about 3 million to 5 million fewer people will obtain coverage through their employer each year from 2019 through 2022.

Here’s the thing, though: these estimates are for losses of employer-provided coverage.

That’s the coming storm. That’s the effects of the employer mandate — the one Obama has already illegally delayed a year — not the individual market, which he is illegally and fecklessly pretending to “fix” administratively as we speak.

AN ASIDE ABOUT THE INCOMPETENCE OF POLITIFIACT: By the way — and this is so bad that I think it will merit a separate post and some hounding from me — PolitiFact repeatedly published an analysis that understated this by a factor of four. In a cut-and-paste that appears in three completely separate “fact-checking” pieces (maybe more) they said this:

CBO, along with the similarly nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation, settled on a range of 3 million to 5 million fewer people, on net, obtaining coverage through their employer each year from 2019 through 2022 than would have been the case before the law was passed.

While 3 million to 5 million people is nothing to sneeze at, it’s also quite a bit lower than the 20 million figure Priebus cited. So where did the 20 million number come from?

Each year, doofuses. EACH YEAR.

Yes, 3 to 5 million is quite a bit lower than 20 million. But 3 to 5 million each year for four years is 12 to 20 million, which is not “quite a bit lower” than 20 million.

BACK TO THE MAIN POINT: Any way you slice it, there were predictions that this law would cause people to lose their plans. So yeah, we were warned. And you are still being warned — because the real crapstorm is still on the horizon.

58 Responses to “You Were Warned — And You Continue To Be Warned”

  1. even if you get to keep your employer-backed coverage the system will be flooded with nasty foodstampers clamoring for ointment to put on their open festering gangrenous sores they got from sitting too long on their filthy couches

    If you get enough of them in one waiting room I heard the gangrene smells vaguely like peaches

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  2. I am a retiree of a major southern California based corporation. Last month retirees were told that the company has yet to decide whether to continue health care benefits or cancel them and pay the fine (tax?). That decision was deferred by Obama, who provided companies with a one-year delay in the employer mandate.
    I am not counting on a favorable outcome.

    Tony C (796f81)

  3. I don’t see how insurance companies who’ve narrowed their provider networks can reinstate doctors and hospitals that were dropped from the plans. Has anyone heard or read about how that’s going to be handled?

    Amalgamated Cliff Divers, Local 157 (f7d5ba)

  4. As far as I can tell, what Obama said yesterday serves only 2 potential political advantages, and nothing else.
    One, for those not really paying attention, it gives the impression that Obama does care about the people of America.
    Two, it allows for him and the dems to push the blame of any current problems onto the insurance companies.

    At the very best as far as actual impact, the most this could do would be to put off the necessary consequences of ObamaCare for a year, nothing more;
    but it can’t even do that very well because of how these things can’t “turn on a dime”.

    For those paying attention, we realize that anything bad that is happening is real and not being “corrected”, merely postponed.
    Also, that Obama admitted facts against interest, saying that there are some things that the private sector can do that government can’t, or does better than the government. Now, this is in logical contradiction to much of what he has said, but logical consistency is limited to what can logically be used to advance the cause; in the short run anything can be said or claimed to weasel out of an immediate tight spot.

    For some of us, none of this is a bit of a surprise,
    for some that are true believers they are disappointed that Obama isn’t being tougher and stranding as a leftist purist (who cares if 5% [or 15% or 25%] are given the shaft for the public good, deal with it, bourgeoisie!)

    The question will be how many have paid enough attention to know what Obama promised, what has happened instead, and realize that he has really done nothing to correct the situation. And as part of that, how to maximize the number of people who realize this.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  5. Comment by MD in Philly (f9371b) — 11/15/2013 @ 9:00 am

    The question will be how many have paid enough attention to know what Obama promised, what has happened instead, and realize that he has really done nothing to correct the situation.

    Within a week to ten days, almost everybody will know he has done virtually nothing to correct the situation. (although it may prevent policies that expire at other times than the January 1 from being discontinued)

    The media are giving this full coverage.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  6. Insurance industry CEO have been summoned to the White House today for a “Come to Jesus” meeting with you know who, to be told how they must pull his bacon out of the fire or at least appear willing to do so publicly, or face the pitch forks and torches.

    Same old, same old.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  7. Regarding the employer-based coverages: does this number, be it 12 or 20 million, mean actual people or is it the number of coverages? I suspect that a goodly number of those [currently] enjoying insurance through their employer have plans that cover the entire family, so the actual number of people whose coverage is in jeopardy could be easily 2 or 3 times what is stated, IF we are seeing “number of coverages/policies” being dropped.

    I’ve not seen anything to really describe what these numbers are counting.

    gramps (2257c4)

  8. I think the real problem is that even if the law is repealed, has enough damage been done to the insurance and medical care system so that we end up with single payer anyway (which I assume was the intent all along).

    rochf (f3fbb0)

  9. Funny how all these prior warnings never quite made into the prime time media.

    Funny/sad, not funny/funny.

    Patricia (be0117)

  10. The whole system wasn’t very good anyway. But you can make it worse.

    It is too easy to stop medical progress, and could get easier, but medical progress is already stopped and slowed down a great deal.

    The other day the New York Times contained an obituary of someone who put an end to Rh disease.

    William Pollack Dies at 87; His Vaccine Saved Infants

    I don’t believe that what he did in the 1960s could be done today, and even in the 1960s it was probably prolonged somewhat. (the vaccine is not really a vaccine. What it does is prevent the mother from becoming immune, so that the next Rh positive baby doesn’t suffer)

    The Wall Street Journal today features a story about a family trying to solve a genetic disease their twin daughters have and they get promised that there’s someone who maybe might reduce the time to take an idea to practice (I presume if it is right) from 17 years to 10 years.

    And then of course it would be tremendously expensive, like the new treatment to clear hepatitis C from the body.

    Samm,y Finkelman (d22d64)

  11. Being told and knowing are two different things, especially if you have been conditioned to believe something other than what one is told.

    A point I heard elsewhere for the lawyers (many) among us-

    so, yesterday president Obama doesn’t change anything in the law, not even by EO, but just says they will wink and not enforce the law-
    does a corporate lawyer tell the corporation to obey the law, or act on the basis of a presidential wink that can be undone at any moment?

    “But your honor the president said we could…”

    Lots of people ought to realize they are all being asked to walk the plank and hope they will not be pushed off when the time comes.
    Hopefully they will realize rushing the opponent and risking “hanging together now” rather than being passive and hanging separately later.

    Yes, I know I mixed metaphors, the President said I could.

    Did the repubs pass the Upton bill because they really like it or for the theatre of it?

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  12. “so, yesterday president Obama doesn’t change anything in the law, not even by EO, but just says they will wink and not enforce the law-
    does a corporate lawyer tell the corporation to obey the law, or act on the basis of a presidential wink that can be undone at any moment?”

    MD – Was it before the 2010 elections that Obama asked big government contractors to hold of announcing large layoffs but agreed to indemnify them in return for failure to give the required plant closing notifications?

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  13. Evey time a Republican goes on an interview show, they need to turn to the lead reporter and ask:

    “We said this was going to happen. We said it over and over. You lot called us liars. Where is your apology? When are you guys going to stop protecting this incompetent LSoS President?

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  14. Comment by MD in Philly (f9371b) — 11/15/2013 @ 10:55 am

    Did the repubs pass the Upton bill because they really like it or for the theatre of it?

    I think for the theatre. It passed 261 to 157, with 39 Democrats voting for it (17 vacancies or not voting)

    And they’ll have to come up with something else to help anyone losing insurance coverage for their doctors, and hospital clinics, although I suppose many doctors will continue seeing their old patients, but have a problem getting paid by some of them.

    The Senate has a probably unconstitutional bill that they are trying to figure out a way to make constitutional.

    As I understand it, the House bill legalizes all policies made illegal as of January 1, 2014 for both old and new customers, with no termination date. People buying pre-existing non-compliant policies are not subject to the mandate. People buying any new non-compliant policies (to the extent they are legal) might still have to pay a tax which, by careful tax planning, might be avoided indefinitely.

    What Obama did was to allow current policyholders to renew, and then only one time, although it could be for two years if the insurance company offered it, and then only on the condition that the insurance company alerts (people not being offered a similar enough renewal policy?) to the exchanges and touts the possible subsidies and extended benefits of policies listed there, in language Obama and his administration approves.

    The Senate bill attempts to force the continuation of old policies at the discretion of he consumer.

    The Upton bill destroys Obamacare by sending policies listed on the exchange into a death spiral, starting in 2015, and in the meantime, helps to guarantee both the federal government and the insurance companies sustain a loss on the insurance sold for 2014, over and above what was planned for the subsidies and Medicaid.

    Obama and a lot of state insurance commissioners are still taking a wait and see attitude on what’s going to happen with the exchange policies.

    Sammy Finkelman (d7b491)

  15. “As I understand it, the House bill legalizes all policies made illegal as of January 1, 2014 for both old and new customers, with no termination date.”

    Sammy – So the bill legalizes the policies with respect to Obamacare as you understand it? Is that what you are saying?

    Whether reissuing cancelled is legal under the law of individual is a whole different kettle of fish. Am I right?

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  16. Ooops – cancelled policies

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  17. 16. “As I understand it, the House bill legalizes all policies made illegal as of January 1, 2014 for both old and new customers, with no termination date.”

    Comment by daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 11/15/2013 @ 11:42 am

    Sammy – So the bill legalizes the policies with respect to Obamacare as you understand it? Is that what you are saying?

    Whether reissuing cancelled is legal under the law of individual is a whole different kettle of fish. Am I right?

    Only pre-existing policies that conflict with the PPACA are legal, and the New York times is not clear enough on what is a pre-existing policy.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/us/politics/obama-to-meet-with-insurance-executives.html?hpw&rref=us&_r=0 (this article had another headline, I guess, in it’s first draft)

    Defying a veto threat from President Obama, the House on Friday approved legislation that would allow health insurance companies to renew individual insurance policies and sell similar policies to new customers next year even if the coverage does not provide all the benefits and consumer protections required by the new health care law.

    Sammy Finkelman (d7b491)

  18. I think no policies have actually been cancelled – people have just received cancellation notices and they have to come 60 or 80 days in advance or so.

    The Democrats proposed “Landrieu lite,” (probably under a procedure that required a 2/3 vote to pass, so it doubly just for theater) which would have allowed people who like their current plans to retain them for an additional year, but not allow such policies to accept any new customers.

    Now there’s another problem. That’s with the fact that insurance companies need to file proposed policies with state insurance commsissioners who have to approve their actuarial soundness, and they may not have fild anything when it comes to policies they are discontinuing.

    And in New York State, I think, there’s a problem with state law, where the Obamacare minimum insurance policy requirements were enacted into state law (and they probably had to be because the minimum Obamacare policies were not legal under New York State law, so certain New York State requirements apparently were dropped, but not all. The prohibition in New York State law on health insurance rate discrimination based on age remains. In New York State age is a pre-existing condition companies offering health insurance are not allowed to take into account, and that still remains true undrer Obamacare.)

    I don’t know, some kind of changes were made so that 2014 individual insurance policies in New York State now cost less than 2013 policies did.

    Maybe it is just the fact that it’s a fresh start.

    Sammy Finkelman (d7b491)

  19. * 60 or 90 days in advance.

    Nobody’s insurance policy has actually been cancelled yet. It’s still 46 days till January 1.

    Sammy Finkelman (d7b491)

  20. Nobody’s insurance policy has actually been cancelled yet. It’s still 46 days till January 1.

    Well, if they can count people who have plans in the carts as “signed up”, I can sure as heck count a plan that has been officially cancelled as of Jan 1 as “cancelled.”

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  21. millions of peaches, peaches for me

    millions of peaches, peaches for free

    happyfeet (c60db2)

  22. More exactly, Sammy, just because you can find some semantic room here does not mean that the insurer’s computer systems can.

    Those policies have been cancelled. They are dead. The brain in the tail just doesn’t know it yet.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  23. The law probably would allow these insurance plans to continue. Actually being renewed is another story.

    Sammy Finkelman (d7b491)

  24. Maybe Congress could try passing alaw stopping the clock?

    You know, like they do Daylight Savings Time.

    They could say that December 31, 2013 remains frozen.

    They do that for themselves:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stopping_the_clock

    …The New York Legislature used to literally stop the clock at midnight on April 1 in order to pass the budget by the constitutional deadline, but eventually ended the practice and began simply disregarding the requirement. In 2004, it finally moved the deadline back to May 1.[8]

    In a debate of the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan, it was noted that stopping the clock is done by tradition and with unanimous consent, when the Opposition agrees with the Government that valuable business can be done by extending the hours.[9] In contrast, the speaker of the Illinois Legislature unilaterally stopped the clock at midnight on the last day of its session on June 30, 1988, to allow further debate before approving money to replace Comiskey Park, a decision that ultimately passed by one vote.[10] Had this maneuver not been done, the White Sox presumably would have moved to Florida. Stadium consultant Marc Ganis noted, “As the clock struck down in St. Petersburg, they started popping champagne corks and didn’t realize that the speaker of the house can literally stop the clock in Illinois. At the stroke of midnight, we got to 60 votes.”[11]

    Sammy Finkelman (d7b491)

  25. The law probably would allow these insurance plans to continue.

    The law would probably allow my horse to talk. But it won’t.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  26. Maybe Congress could try passing a law stopping the clock?

    Yes, but how do I get paid? Admittedly my rent would be frozen too, but I’d still have to eat no matter what Congress said. Or are they going to pass a law that says I won’t get hungry?

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  27. The 20 million figure is a CBO number (from March 15, 2012). Not sure what changed in the law or its implementation, but an earlier report authored by the Internal Revenue Service, the Employee Benefits Security Administration, and the Department of Health and Human Services claimed the lower end estimate would be about 71 million, when calculated (from June 17, 2010).

    Given that the CBO (here, table 1 for 2013) claims that 156 million Americans have employer-based coverage and 25 million have “non-group” coverage:

    Low end estimate: 39%( here, pg 34,552) and 40% (ibid, pg 34,553), respectively.

    39% X 156 million = 60.84 million
    40% X 25 million = 10 million

    71 million (rounded)

    If we subtract the 17 million people that stand to gain from an ideal implementation of Obamacare (here):

    71 million – 17 million = 54 million net, who will be worse off than before Obamacare.

    For grins, split the difference between 20 and 70 = 45 million people harmed by Obamacare.

    And of course, all the departments that contributed to these “low end” estimates have an outstanding reputation for making conservative estimates.

    Pons Asinorum (8ce71a)

  28. I wonder if Obama thinks he retains the Constitutional authority to suspend the laws of gravity.
    He certainly suspends the laws of disbelief.

    Elephant Stone (6a6f37)

  29. Where is our pal Tlaloc to taunt us about how Obama is smelling like such a rose ?

    Elephant Stone (6a6f37)

  30. You people are so strict. Who knew this jug-eared ne’er-do-well was a pathological incorrect promiser!?!?

    Colonel Haiku (86ce72)

  31. Comment by daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 11/15/2013 @ 11:06 am

    Good point.

    No matter how much trouble ObamaCare seems to be in, it will refuse to die like a Zombie in a movie.
    If nothing else, leftists are very persistent.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  32. having to go on the obamacare means you made bad choices somewheres

    I hope to God in His Heaven this never happens to me, but I’m really really scared it will.

    I really tried all my life to be a good person I recycled some stuff and I was kind to most animals and I bought pizza for the office today.

    But I guess I should’ve tried more harder cause I can feel the obamacares stalking me and like a wee lil forest creature I scamper hither and yither but I can’t find anywhere to hide from the claws and the hunger and the vindictive redistributey rage of the obamacares.

    Have mercy on my soul God.

    happyfeet (c60db2)

  33. Leave President Obama alone. He’s trying to do the right thing.

    Talaloc (425909)

  34. Sorry… I couldn’t resist, cuz I miss him so…

    Colonel Haiku (425909)

  35. having to go on the obamacare means you made bad choices somewheres

    Happyfoots,

    All you have to do is be 50 and get, say, an enlarged prostate and find insurance policies hard to come by. There are reasons a reform was needed. Obamacare’s only real fault was it doesn’t really work.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  36. He’s trying to do the right thing.

    Assuming that’s true (and I don’t), it’s patently obvious that he’s not very good at it.

    Or is Obama above criticism all of a sudden?

    Chuck Bartowski (11fb31)

  37. Sorry… I couldn’t resist, cuz I miss him so…

    Well, if Turdlock can’t show up, at least we have “former conservative” to provide entertainment.

    askeptic (b8ab92)

  38. “Leave President Obama alone. He’s trying to do the right thing.”

    Tlaloc – He’s doing it wrong.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  39. They try to make me be Talaloc, but I say no, no, no
    I was just a funnin’, cuz I miss him so

    Colonel Haiku (425909)

  40. but ah’ll be yo huckleberry… hound

    Colonel Haiku (425909)

  41. They saw the iceberg then steered right through it;

    http://legalinsurrection.com/2013/11/this-week-in-obamacare-website-issues/

    narciso (3fec35)

  42. i don’t want to be on the obamacares Mr. M it just feels bad

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  43. Why oh why did so many Democrats vote against the Upton Bill in the House today? It was essentially the fix Obama was asking for yesterday to absolve him of his misspoken, incorrect, lie in your face, promises? Don’t they support their president. Don’t they understand that nobody will buy overpriced, crap policies from evil, bad apple insurers from yesterday’s individual insurance when they have the option government mandated and chosen better and more affordable insurance options through the Obamacare exchanges?

    What could go wrong? Why don’t Democrats at least want to give the appearance of helping Americans?

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  44. Mr. Feets – If you feel bad, just try eating a tasty cupcake on a stick. That should perk you right back up.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  45. if i had a cupcake on a stick i’d never leave the house

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  46. pecan pie, guava and cheese pastries, but cupcakes pikachu, to each their own.

    narciso (3fec35)

  47. porto’s makes the guava and cheese thingers and man they good eatin but can’t get em on no stick

    not with a million food stamps you can’t

    i know

    it’s not fair

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  48. Leave President Obama alone. He’s trying to do the right thing.

    I have to chuckle when you say that. Obama is so pathetic that even when a person sincerely proclaims “he’s trying to do the right thing,” it comes off as sarcastic or tongue-in-cheek.

    You know, like they do Daylight Savings Time.

    That one aspect of government-mandated change throughout society symbolically represents the way that bad ideas and bad policies have a way of being put into effect by the public sector, regardless of countervailing or counter-intuitive feedback (eg, energy usage not only isn’t reduced by switching to daylight saving time, it’s actually increased).

    Moreover, if the government is so concerned about the public’s health, then the fact that heart attacks and other negative ailments increase when DST is implemented is the height of irony. After all, a lack of enough rest and sleep is a major health dilemma in today’s era. So the artificial speeding up of the clock (ie, pushing clocks forward by one hour) is a perfect example of the idiocy of government.

    That particular policy runs in tandem with the idea promoted by Obamacare that birth control should be a required benefit of insurance plans. (Hell, why not also throw in the stipulation that groceries from Whole Foods also must be provided by a health insurance plan?!)

    The Age of Insanity!

    Mark (58ea35)

  49. ==Who knew this jug-eared ne’er-do-well was a pathological incorrect promiser!?!?==

    The whole lot of them did. Pelosi, Reid, Hoyer, Durbin. They all knew he is a fraud, a lightweight, an incompetent and a poseur. But they were more than happy to host the Obama magic show, and ride along on the Obama bandwagon and the Obama gravy train. They thought he had the American media and the American public so entranced that they could get away with it. But it fell apart too soon. They deserve absolutely everything they are getting thrown back in their faces in regard to this s#itstorm they facilitated.

    elissa (6d358f)

  50. Pravda facts lies, they’ve done it since the first day.

    narciso (3fec35)

  51. Stick with me Mr. Feets and I will learn you all about the hoote kwisine!

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  52. That’s the coming storm. That’s the effects of the employer mandate — the one Obama has already illegally delayed a year — not the individual market, which he is illegally and fecklessly pretending to “fix” administratively as we speak.

    At this point it’d be easier to keep track of what Prom Queen didn’t lie about. I can’t think of a thing.

    For instance, the Pivot to Asia. That’s a Navy intensive theater. I’ve looked at the 30 year ship building plan under Obama. I’m no Bull Halsey, but I know an unserious plan when I see one. They aren’t pivoting to anything but domestic spending.

    Like Obamacare, the thing can’t freakin’ work. But it’s not designed to. It’s designed to fool as many of the people it can for as long as it can.

    I have yet to hear from an Obama booster why it was sane to vote for this guy for Prom Queen.

    Steve57 (338553)

  53. It’s almost as if they didn’t read the whole road to Pearl Harbor, specially Hornbeck’s China favoring sanctions policy.

    narciso (3fec35)

  54. the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said in a new report Thursday.

    This would be the same ones who said it was “revenue neutral” years ago? THAT CBO?

    So, what, the correct figure — only to be acked at a later date — is more like 100 million, then?

    Smock Puppet, Gadfy, Racist-Sexist Thug, and Bon Vivant All In One Package (006437)

  55. The Dems are All In on Obama’s Big Con and screwing the pooch.

    Colonel Haiku (7bd2ca)


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