[Guest post by DRJ]

The Bush Administration cultivated a relationship with the Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan, not only to make inroads into the Russian sphere of influence but also to solidify the use of a “cherished military base in the north of Kyrgyzstan, without which U.S. supply lines to the nearby war in Afghanistan would be significantly hampered.” That relationship is in jeopardy following a bloody upheaval in Kyrgyzstan that was reportedly instigated by Russia:

“Members of the besieged government of Kyrgyzstan suspect that Moscow precipitated the violent upheaval that has swept the former Soviet republic in Central Asia. Already scores of people have been killed and hundreds more wounded after troops opened fire on protesters, who in turn overpowered the police, stormed and looted government buildings and forced President Kurmanbek Bakiev to flee the country. On Wednesday, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin denied any involvement by his country in the turmoil after his Kyrgyz counterpart said that Putin gave the go-ahead to the revolt. But whether or not the Kremlin urged the Kyrgyz opposition to call its supporters into the streets, Moscow has a lot to gain and Washington a lot to lose from the bloody upheaval that has ensued.”

The action followed a personal appeal by President Obama to Russian President Medvedev:

“The struggle came to a head in February of last year, when the Kyrgyz handed the U.S. military base an eviction notice just weeks after Russia provided the impoverished country with a $2 billion loan and $150 million in aid. Russia denied any link between the two events, but U.S. officials saw it differently. Washington soon reached a deal with Kyrgyz leaders to keep the base open – in exchange for a tripling of the yearly rental to $60 million, among other conditions. (See Kyrgyzstan’s role in getting U.S. troops to Afghanistan.)

In a March 5 interview with TIME, an Obama Administration senior official said it had been a close call for the U.S. “That we have the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan is a great achievement,” he said. “Russia didn’t want to allow us to have that. They put down $2 billion to get us out. But Obama had very frank discussions with [Russian President Dmitri] Medvedev. He said, If you believe we have a common enemy in Afghanistan, then this is going to help us fight that common enemy. Had we lost that, it would have been a major blow. It is a major hub for getting our soldiers in and out of there.”

Since then, Russian-Kyrgyz relations have deteriorated, a process that culminated in Wednesday’s declaration by Kyrgyz Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov that one of the heads of the opposition had met with Putin before going forward with the revolt. Usenov told a press conference on Tuesday in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek that opposition leader Temir Sariyev claimed during an interrogation that he had received assurances from Putin of Russia’s support for the opposition.”

I guess we can safely call this a “major blow” to American interests now that the opposition has taken over government buildings and declared victory. The Obama Administration’s response was not convincing:

“The U.S. State Department was quick to issue a statement saying its air base in Kyrgyzstan was “functioning normally.” “We are continuing to monitor the circumstances. We continue to think the government remains in power,” State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said in a statement on Wednesday. But that view is beginning to seem untenable: Bakiev has already fled the country, and the opposition says it is forming a new government.”

Obama may have to get in bed with the repressive regime in Uzbekistan if he isn’t able to persuade the Russians of our mutual interests. Is there anyone outside America Obama can persuade about anything?

— DRJ

UPDATE — Here is an interesting Newsy.com report on the uprising.