Patterico's Pontifications

2/20/2010

Evan Bayh’s Motivations

Filed under: Obama,Politics — DRJ @ 1:49 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

Examiner Columnist Larry Elder says Senator Evan Bayh isn’t seeking re-election because he might lose:

“Could it be that the “fed-up” senator feared losing re-election? Don’t ask. CBS didn’t. The possibility that Bayh faced a tough re-election wasn’t even hinted at. But imagine Bayh, who explored a 2008 presidential bid, running for re-election while justifying to skeptical Hoosiers his votes for “stimulus,” TARP, the auto bailouts and ObamaCare.

Here’s the big underreported story.

In a hypothetical race against undeclared candidate Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind. — according to a recent Rasmussen poll of likely voters — Bayh was down 3 points. Against another possible opponent, former House Republican John Hostettler, he was only ahead by 3 points. Welcome to the new normal. No Democrat or squishy Republican is safe.

By a 2-1 margin, more people call themselves politically conservative than liberal. Self-identified “independents,” who outnumber both the Dems and the Republicans, have turned against Obama with a vengeance. This center-right country now realizes it elected a left-winger for president. And voters don’t like what they see or what he’s doing.”

Elder says stepping down may help Bayh’s future career prospects:

“In Bayh’s case, how embarrassing would it be to outspend your opponent … and lose? Makes it tough for donors to kick in for a presidential run. Why take the chance?

If he bows out now, with the traditional media helpfully painting him as a lock for re-election, Bayh can go around the country unshackled. He can make news on his terms — staying visible without having to show up somewhere, vote and create a record that requires defending. To keep up his profile and broaden his base, he could shoot for a gig on Fox. [NOTE by DRJ: Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?] Fox News chief Roger Ailes has probably already sat him down for schnapps.

If Obama’s popularity continues to erode, Bayh won’t be quite as tethered to him. If he stays in the Senate and votes with Obama — as he has so far — how can he criticize? He becomes “part of the problem.” If he votes against Obama, he invites the wrath of his party’s liberal base (a redundancy). Retired, he can criticize and distance himself from unpopular policies.

For now, things look grim. Despite some positive signs, most people feel the economy remains in the tank. Home foreclosures figure to rise, with commercial real estate not far behind. Soon the Bush tax cuts expire, resulting in tax hikes during a weak economy. The spending and borrowing will eventually spark high inflation. The debt and deficit get bigger.

If Obama loses in 2012, Bayh becomes better-positioned for a presidential bid. He can say, “I would have done this or that differently.” So he pulled the rip cord. Got out on top. He can cool his heels, make some jack and get set for the 2016 campaign — tanned, rested and ready.”

Instead of Bayh-Bayh, maybe the headlines should have been Bayh in 2016 or even 2012.

— DRJ

52 Responses to “Evan Bayh’s Motivations”

  1. Leave it to CBS to ask the hard, probing questions. Bayh is history. So is Huckleberry, Fox show and all.

    GeneralMalaise (0428a9)

  2. Rasmussen is racist.

    JD (f56a68)

  3. …maybe the headlines should have been Bayh in 2016 or even 2012.

    Nah, Dmac told me it would never happen.

    Old Coot (ddf8be)

  4. See, it was “The Early Show”, only Katie knows how to ask the hard-hitting, probing questions.
    Anyway, the average CBS viewer at that time of day is barely alive, let alone awake.

    AD - RtR/OS! (e05987)

  5. Too clever by half. No democrat will be credible for the next 4 to 8 years if Obama and the democrats stay on course.

    Congress hasn’t done jack about the expiring Bush cuts or the death tax. A double whammy to an economy in serious trouble. There won’t be any recovery this year and none next year until these issues are favorable resolved. And if the democrats continue with the rest of their agenda there won’t be a recovery until the republicans obtain a veto proof congress and undo the mess created by the democrats. Blaming Bush has run out of steam, he campaigned on resolving the economic problems and all the democrats have done is made things worse. They are out of time for excuses and nearly out of time to start producing results.

    As for Bayh, he is done for. he is simply avoiding an embarrassment and nothing else.

    cubanbob (409ac2)

  6. The expiration of the “Bush Tax Cuts” will cause the economy to linger in near-death until after the 2012 election results are in, or the GOP candidate takes a resounding lead in the Summer/Early-Fall polls.
    Capital is on strike, and as long as the climate in DC is chilly, and the sand in Aruba is warm, it will stay “On Strike”.

    AD - RtR/OS! (e05987)

  7. Bayh is positioning himself as the leader of the inevitable lurch to the right that the Dems will undertake post-BHO. There is no way that after several years of his being the epitome of moderation that the voters will hold his liberal voting record against him.

    He may also have simply had enough of being a politician. It’s a royal pain for the anointed to grovel for the votes of the unwashed.

    Ed from SFV (f6a87d)

  8. If Obama loses in 2012, Bayh becomes better-positioned for a presidential bid. He can say, “I would have done this or that differently.” So he pulled the rip cord. Got out on top. He can cool his heels, make some jack and get set for the 2016 campaign — tanned, rested and ready.”

    It all depends on what he does in the Senate for the rest of the year. If he continues to vote the straight liberal line, as he has been doing, then it will not be easy for him to run for President as a “moderate” Democrat. I think he’s intending to do just that – vote the straight liberal line – and then get out of office and cash in.

    Subotai (9fc393)

  9. Nah, Dmac told me it would never happen.

    I did? Can you refresh my memory of this (no snark intended)?

    Dmac (799abd)

  10. I made one comment on the previous thread regarding Bayh’s retirement:

    I just saw some numbers from that respected pollster who works for Kos and it said that most likely voters are not only Democratic, but that they just lurve their current Dem representatives. Prove me wrong, America!

    Comment by Myron

    Comment by Dmac — 2/15/2010 @ 3:59 pm

    What are you talking about?

    Dmac (799abd)

  11. Even Karnak is unable to devine what moron is talking about.

    AD - RtR/OS! (e05987)

  12. Bayh will never get elected – timb does not trust him.

    daleyrocks (718861)

  13. Dmac: See your comment #10 on this thread. But hey dude, I still love you. 😉

    Old Coot (ddf8be)

  14. Isn’t it always a possibility that a person wouldn’t get re-elected? Is this news? He’s not a cheney (err, liar) so I am going to take his reasons for not running at face value. You are welcome to start another birther/truther movement (slightly reduced, in this case) with your conspiracy theories.

    Intelliology (00d844)

  15. We Africans do not share your perssimism towards your president. We wish him well and hope he is able to turn the economic fortunes of this great nation for the better. It is in everyone’s interest that America succeeds.

    Nigerian Observer (aa6be9)

  16. “He’s not a cheney (err, liar) so I am going to take his reasons for not running at face value.”

    Another Republican who chills the libquimby to the bone. Thanks for sharing!

    GeneralMalaise (0428a9)

  17. Since that troll is a LIHOP twoofer, the irony, it burns.

    JD (ce2fcf)

  18. Nope. I am not a ‘LIHOP twoofer’, actually. Soooo… you should look up the word ‘irony’ in the dictionary before you use it in a sentence again.

    Intelliology (00d844)

  19. Now you are denying your own words?! You stated that Bush let it happen on purpose by ignoring the warnings of an imminent threat. Lies flow from your mouth like water from a spigot.

    JD (ce2fcf)

  20. Actually I said that Bush let it happen, you added the ‘on purpose’. But yes, it was his refusal to heed warnings that is most to blame.

    Intelliology (00d844)

  21. #15 Still waiting for that $5 million inheritance one of your fellow citizens promised me after I sent me good faith deposit to Lagos.

    So why do you support obamalamadingdong? Because he’s a socialist, believes in the Chicago Way or because he’s an octaroon with muslim roots?

    Glad to see the racial harmony in Nigeria though; I’m sure the muslims stopped butchering the Christians there?

    aoibhneas (02d046)

  22. No. 10: I never wrote those words. What’s that about,Dmac?

    As for Bayh, he only said one thing this week that matters: That he *might* consider reconciliation. So the chronic Indiana under-performer may very well prove good for something after all. I’m not holding my breath, tho.

    Myron (998393)

  23. 22-They do that often, Myron. Strawmen are their favorite.

    Intelliology (00d844)

  24. Intelliology, warnings that you invented out of whole cloth as neither “imminent” nor “plane used as a weapon” existed in the PDB contrary to your falsehoods.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  25. What good has this Bayh character ever done?

    imdw (e66d8d)

  26. “We Africans do not share your perssimism towards your president”

    We Americans will never share our persimmons… cumquats, yes… pomegranates, maybe… but persimmons? Hell, no!

    GeneralMalaise (0428a9)

  27. “What good has this Bayh character ever done?”

    He done real good this past week.

    GeneralMalaise (0428a9)

  28. SPQR: Do you really want to have this discussion again? You claim that the warnings were not there, and I do. We disagree. While you and JD claim that that makes me a ‘liar’ I disagree with that as well. Frankly, logic disagrees with me being called a liar because of that.

    Einstein’s definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

    By that definition, you, SPQR, are insane.

    Intelliology (00d844)

  29. **do believe they were there**

    Intelliology (00d844)

  30. Moron @22: Hey pal, keep out of our fun…you ain’t bright enough to play with us.

    Old Coot (ddf8be)

  31. @21. First of all, concerning the comment infering that you were duped by someone posing as a Nigerian, I ve an advice for you: stop dealing from the backyard. Come thru the front door next time. It is usually the greedy and cunning that fall victim to cunningness. On Obama. We are happy that America has proven the cynics wrong and hav elected the first black president of the greatest nation on Earth! Showing by example that racism is dead in America. Bravo America. what remains is that he governs well and not betray this great trust. And yes, Christians and Muslims are doing just fine over here. thank you for ur concern.

    Nigerian Observer (aa6be9)

  32. Where’s Olesegun Banjobanjo when you need him?

    Mike LaRoche (349322)

  33. Oh dear. I may have left a typo on my comment number 15. It should be pessimism and not …well you what. Thanks to commenter @26 for pointing that out.

    Nigerian Observer (aa6be9)

  34. Nigerian Observer:

    Most Americans also believe electing an American of African heritage is a good thing.

    That being said, I disagree with his politics — strongly — but I certainly recognize the significance of his presidency.

    Ag80 (f67beb)

  35. “Einstein’s definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.

    And since you continue to post outright lies, (or at best, half truths) with an expectation that you will not be called on them, then you sir, by definition, are insane.

    GeneralMalaise (0428a9)

  36. @32. If you are referring to our former president, his name is Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo. A retired general. And not many Nigerians are happy with him.

    Nigerian Observer (aa6be9)

  37. Touche, commenter Ag80 @34.

    Nigerian Observer (aa6be9)

  38. General mayonaise: Just because you think they are lies doesn’t make them so.

    Intelliology (00d844)

  39. IntelProctologist… they are provable lies, not that it would matter to one such as you.

    GeneralMalaise (0428a9)

  40. Only a true imbecile would claim he could prove one side wrong in an argument over semantics.

    Intelliology (00d844)

  41. Don’t be so hard on yourself, intelcoprophagist.

    GeneralMalaise (0428a9)

  42. Does calling me a different name every time give you that sense of accomplishment that losing an argument to me just doesn’t, general mayonaise?

    Intelliology (00d844)

  43. We haven’t had an argument, Intelcoprophagist. That name will stay with you. Enjoy!

    GeneralMalaise (0428a9)

  44. You simper and then whimper. You know the drill.

    GeneralMalaise (0428a9)

  45. Name calling isn’t going to change what is in the PDB. Just face it; you lose.

    Intelliology (00d844)

  46. Mincing about as you proclaim a victory impresses no one, Intelcoprophagist.

    Better luck next time.

    GeneralMalaise (0428a9)

  47. Sounds like he’s accusing this Bayh person of pulling a Sarah Palin.

    happyfeet (713679)

  48. which I see was clearly noted in a NOTE to where no one else would need to trouble themselves with noting it.

    ok then.

    happyfeet (713679)

  49. Actually I said that Bush let it happen, you added the ‘on purpose’. But yes, it was his refusal to heed warnings that is most to blame.

    The only “warning” about hijackings in the PDB came from a 1998 source that was still uncorroborated in 2001. Hardly actionable. Clinton “refused to heed” the same warning for a couple of years. I don’t fault either man for that, the item was too vague.

    Some chump (5e3f33)

  50. No. 10: I never wrote those words. What’s that about,Dmac?

    God, you really are as clueless as we’ve all thought – it was a freaking parody, you asshat. Did you even bother to look at the entire thread, oh wise one?

    Dmac (799abd)

  51. elected the first black president of the greatest nation on Earth

    Actually, that distinction was applied to Bill Clinton, a guy called by a variety of black Americans as the country’s “first black president.” That alone indicated to me how foolish and idiotic is the politics of a good number of people in the black community. IOW, a simple-minded leftism is what animates far too many African-Americans. A way of thinking and responding that ultimately is much more important to them than whether they’re dealing with a person who’s white, black, Latino, Asian, Eskimo, Jewish, Gentile, etc.

    This (ie, addle-headed liberalism) also is a good example of why various forms of social-cultural dysfunction have not only diminished in black America over the past 50 years, but, in fact, have skyrocketed.

    Mark (411533)

  52. Sabato’s Crystal Ball said Bayh’s seat was Likely Democrat and declared it Democrat Win (if held today) before Bayh withdrew. The Crystal Ball said Bayh didn’t pull out due to negative polling.

    I’m having troubles reading the Crystal Ball because, while it sees +7 Senate, +27 House, +6 Governor for Republicans, it also sees the TX Governor as Leans Republican (not Likely Republican or Republican Hold) and saw Bayh’s seat as Likely Democrat before he withdrew and Toss-Up after he withdrew.

    John Hitchcock (f64bd7)


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