Patterico’s Pontifications

5/8/2008

The L.A. Times’s Errors in Its Piece on DNA and Cold Hits

Filed under: Crime, Dog Trainer, General — Patterico @ 11:10 pm

I have sent the following e-mail to the authors of that L.A. Times piece on DNA and cold hits:

Mr. Felch and Ms. Dolan,

I believe your recent front-page article on DNA cold case statistics misstated the meaning of the math you discuss.

Your article said:

Jurors were not told, however, the statistic that leading scientists consider the most significant: the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person.

In Puckett’s case, it was 1 in 3.

The 1-in-3 number does not pertain to the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person. Rather, the 1-in-3 number pertains to the probability that a database search will result in a single match — whether that match is to an innocent person or a guilty one.

If we ignore the existance of independent evidence of Puckett’s guilt, the statistical chance Puckett is innocent depends in part on the probability that the database contains the guilty party. Your article gives no information on what this probability is (although the fact that the database consists of California-based felons suggests that the chances are better than one would find in a purely random database). Without knowing the probability that the database contains the guilty party, you can’t conclude that the 1-in-3 figure accurately represents the chances Puckett is innocent. Your article confuses two distinct concepts and requires correction.

You state:

In every cold hit case, the panels advised, police and prosecutors should multiply the Random Match Probability (1 in 1.1 million in Puckett’s case) by the number of profiles in the database (338,000). That’s the same as dividing 1.1 million by 338,000.

Actually, you have that upside down. Multiplying (1 in 1.1 million) by 338,000 is the same as dividing 338,000 by 1.1 million — not dividing 1.1 million by 338,000.

Your article continues:

For Puckett, the result was dramatic: a 1-in-3 chance that the search would link an innocent person to the crime.

Again, this is wrong. There is a 1-in-3 chance that the search would link someone to the crime. Whether that person is innocent or not depends on the likelihood that the database contains the guilty party (as well as the quality of other evidence tying that defendant to the crime).

I am not the only person saying this. A similar point was made by Eugene Volokh in this post. And I made the point in more detail in this blog post of mine.

I think the paper owes readers at least two corrections — one of the 1-in-3 statistic, and one on the upside-down division. Given the prominence of the error on the 1-in-3 statistic, which appeared on the front page of the Sunday paper, I hope your paper will make an effort to give this correction the prominence it deserves.

cc: Readers’ Representative

I’ll let you know what I hear in response.

P.S. When I say “Rather, the 1-in-3 number pertains to the probability that a database search will result in a single match — whether that match is to an innocent person or a guilty one.” I meant to express this concept: “Rather, the 1-in-3 number pertains to the probability that a database search will result in a single match, period. If we get a single match, we won’t know whether it was to an innocent person or a guilty person without learning more.” In other words, without prior knowledge of the likelihood that the database has the guilty person, all we know is the chance of a hit — not the chance of a hit to an innocent person.

5/7/2008

My Proposed E-Mail to the Authors of the L.A. Times Piece on DNA and Cold Hits

Filed under: Crime, Dog Trainer, General — Patterico @ 6:57 am

It might seem a little odd for me to vet an e-mail I am planning to send by publishing a draft of it on a public website that receives thousands of hits every day. But hey, odd is fun! And so I invite you to read this draft (yet unsent) of a letter to the authors of the recent L.A. Times article on DNA, cold hits, and statistics.

I’d like readers to review it before I send it because I am not a statistics expert, and although I consulted with more than one during the process of drafting this, I want to make sure I have made no mathematical or logical misstatements.

Here it is:

Mr. Felch and Ms. Dolan,

After discussions with numerous people with statistical expertise, I am reasonably confident (that is, as confident as a layman like myself can be) that your recent front-page article on DNA cold case statistics gravely misstated the meaning of the math you discuss.

Your article said:

Jurors were not told, however, the statistic that leading scientists consider the most significant: the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person.

In Puckett’s case, it was 1 in 3.

I don’t believe the math in question supports the statement that there was a “1 in 3″ chance that “the database search had hit upon an innocent person” in selecting Puckett.

The starting point for my analysis was this post by Eugene Volokh, a UCLA law professor and blogger. Prof. Volokh agrees with me that your formulation is wrong. He justifies his argument with effective argumentation and examples; I commend his post to you. My e-mail to you (which I am blogging on my site) merely expands on Prof. Volokh’s argument as it relates to the article.

(To keep the discussion simple, I will assume there are no issues relating to data corruption or human error. I’ll also stick with the numbers used in your article: a random match probability of 1 in 1.1 million, and a database of 338,000.)

The logic behind the database adjustment was expressed in a report from the National Research Council as follows:

Recommendation 5.1 proposes multiplying the random-match probability (P) by the number of people in the database (N). If the person who left the evidence DNA was not in the database of felons, then the probability that at least one of the profiles in the database would also match the incriminating profile cannot exceed NP.

The clear working assumption here is that the database consists of “innocent” people who did not leave the DNA in the database.

This makes sense, at least in a hypothetical case where the jury is informed that the authorities came to suspect the defendant because of a database hit. There is a certain “what are the chances?!” quality of DNA evidence that presumes the defendant was under suspicion before the DNA comparison was done. In other words, if the defendant is before the jury because of a database hit, and the jury knows it, the jury may be “wowed” by the fact of the hit. But the impact of this “wow” factor is considerably lessened likely if the jury is told that, in a hypothetical search of a database of completely innocent people, there is a 1/3 chance of a hit.

Thus, it seems clear to me that the idea of the adjustment is to communicate to the jury the likelihood of a false positive, based on the assumption that the true donor of the incriminating profile is not in the database.

My understanding is bolstered by an e-mail I received from Prof. David Kaye, who served on the 1996 NRC committee that recommended the adjustment. In that e-mail, Prof. Kaye stated:

[T]he statisticians who favor an adjustment to the random-match probability are considering [the question:] What is the chance that a search of a database will turn up exactly one match when the source of the crime-scene DNA is someone who is unrelated to everyone in the database?

He restated the question in this way:

What is the chance that a database composed entirely of innocent people (with respect to [the] crime being investigated) will show a match?

Note that the fundamental assumption of the hypothetical is that everyone in the database is innocent. Then, and only then, can one use the adjusted figure recommended by the committees as a (very rough) approximation of the chances of a false positive.

If by contrast, you start with the assumption that you don’t know whether the suspect is in the database or not, then the 1/3 number tells you nothing about whether a single hit from the database is a hit to a) the true donor of the incriminating DNA or b) an innocent person who happens to share the same profile (i.e. a “false positive”).

It’s important to keep in mind that what we’re talking about here is the situation where a database search is conducted, and has resulted in only one hit. The question is: what can we say, statistically, about that one hit?

In the case where you don’t know whether the database contains the the true donor, or “guilty” person (speaking very loosely), the meaning of a single hit from that database is a function of the likelihood that the true donor is in the database — and (given that only one hit was received) the likelihood that nobody else with that profile is in the database.

If you don’t know whether the true donor (or “guilty” person) is in the database or not, the 1/3 number is merely an expression of the likelihood of a hit — any hit. It’s not an expression of the chances that any resultant hit is a hit to an “innocent” person.

Again, I am not a statistics expert, and (perhaps as a result) I don’t know whether it is possible to tell juries anything statistically meaningful about the likelihood that the person in front of them is innocent. (Neither does Prof. Volokh, for what it’s worth.) But I feel fairly confident that the 1/3 number is not an expression of the probability that the person sitting in front of jurors is “innocent.”

Thus, I believe that your article is wrong to say, in the statement quoted above, that “the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person” in Puckett’s case was “1 in 3.”

That is simply not so, I believe.

If I’m right, I think The Times needs to correct this misimpression. What’s more, I think any correction should be very prominent, given the extreme prominence of the error (or what I believe to be an error) on the front page of the paper’s Sunday edition.

I hope you will see your way clear to discussing these issues with knowledgeable experts. I also hope that you will issue an appropriate and prominent correction if, after reflection and consultation with experts, you believe I have correctly analyzed the issue.

I look forward to your response.

P.S. I should note that my argument does not address the fact that guilt is not automatic once it is determined that the suspect is the donor of the DNA at the crime scene, just as innocence is not automatic once it is determined that he is not the donor. I assume you are aware of the difference between source attribution and guilt, and left out an explanation of the difference for space reasons.

Nor does my argument address the fact that the 1/3 number is an approximation of an approximation. (Prof. Volokh’s post has more details on the relevant statistics.) I also presume you were aware of this, and believe that the 1/3 number is simply a conservative simplification of the more complex equation that Prof. Volokh sets forth in his post.

My argument has nothing to do with these relatively minor quibbles. One could argue that ignoring them is necessary to keep the issue straightforward and simple. My problem is that, these minor issues aside, the way you have expressed the meaning of the adjusted number is (I believe) so misleading as to be fairly termed an error.

Please let me know what you think. I remain humble on the issue because of my lack of expertise in the field.

5/6/2008

Volokh on DNA and Cold Hits

Filed under: Crime, Dog Trainer, General — Patterico @ 7:05 am

Eugene Volokh has deftly isolated the major flaw in the recent L.A. Times article on DNA, cold cases, and statistics.

In my original post I quoted the language from the article that most disturbed me:

At Puckett’s trial earlier this year, the prosecutor told the jury that the chance of such a coincidence was 1 in 1.1 million.

Jurors were not told, however, the statistic that leading scientists consider the most significant: the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person.

In Puckett’s case, it was 1 in 3.

. . . .

In every cold hit case, the panels advised, police and prosecutors should multiply the Random Match Probability (1 in 1.1 million in Puckett’s case) by the number of profiles in the database (338,000). That’s the same as dividing 1.1 million by 338,000.

For Puckett, the result was dramatic: a 1-in-3 chance that the search would link an innocent person to the crime.

In my original post I said:

It seems to me that the conclusion does not logically follow at all. The formulation simply can’t be right. The suggestion appears to be that the larger the database, the greater the chance is that the hit you receive will be a hit to an innocent person. I think that the larger the database, the greater the probability of getting a hit. Then, once you have the hit, the question becomes: how likely is it that the hit is just a coincidence?

Volokh explains the ridiculous nature of the L.A. Times’s formulation with an excellent example:

Here’s one way of seeing this: Let’s say that the prosecution comes up with a vast amount of other evidence against Pickett — he admitted the crime in a letter to a friend; items left at the murder site are eventually tied to him; and more. He would still, though, have been found through a search of a 338,000-item DNA database, looking for a DNA profile that is possessed by 1/1,100,000 of the population — and under the article’s assertion, “the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person” would still have been “1 in 3.”

Despite all the other evidence that the police would have found, and even if the prosecutors didn’t introduce the DNA evidence, there would be, under the article’s description, a 1/3 chance that the search had hit upon an innocent person (Pickett), and thus a 1/3 chance that Pickett was innocent, presumably more than enough for an acquittal. That can’t, of course, be right. But that just reflects the fact that 1/3 is not “the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person.” It’s the probability that a search would have come up with someone innocent if the rapist wasn’t in the database.

I think that’s exactly it. I believe the reason is that inclusion of a known guilty person in the database corrupts the math involved in pure probabilities of finding an innocent person.

I think Eugene has hit upon an actual error in the piece with this, and not just a matter that’s open to debate. I don’t think they would ever correct it, because they have a history of failing to correct errors if the explanation of the error is long and difficult — even if it’s unquestionably an error. Still, when I have more time, I’ll follow up on this more.

Read Volokh’s entire post, which has other illuminating insights, here. Previous posts on this subject here, here, and here.

5/5/2008

9th Circuit Weighs In On DNA Statistics Case

Filed under: Court Decisions, Crime, General — Justin Levine @ 1:05 pm

[posted by Justin Levine] 

Patterico has recently had an intriguing set of posts regarding the debate over the use of DNA statistics in criminal cases.

In an unusual coincidence, the 9th Circuit has just come down with an opinion [PDF file] today that touches on the subject.

Interesting reading, and more fodder for debate I’m sure (including O’Scannlain’s dissenting opinion in the case, which seems pretty convincing in my humble opinion).

- Justin Levine

Law Professor: L.A. Times Article on DNA Portrays One View As the Consensus View

Filed under: Crime, Dog Trainer, General — Patterico @ 6:28 am

Prof. David Kaye says on his blog that yesterday’s L.A. Times article on DNA, cold hits, and statistics is not balanced, and portrays one side of a debate as though it is the only valid viewpoint:

[A]n article in the May 3 Los Angeles Times claims to have uncovered a national scandal of sorts. The reporters describe a recent “cold hit” case that they say

is emblematic of a national problem, The Times has found. [¶] Prosecutors and crime labs across the country routinely use numbers that exaggerate the significance of DNA matches in “cold hit” cases, in which a suspect is identified through a database search. [¶] Jurors are often told that the odds of a coincidental match are hundreds of thousands of times more remote than they actually are, according to a review of scientific literature and interviews with leading authorities in the field.

The article maintains that

[I]n cold hit cases, the investigation starts with a DNA match found by searching thousands, or even millions, of genetic profiles in an offender database. Each individual comparison increases the chance of a match to an innocent person. [¶] Nevertheless, police labs and prosecutors almost always calculate the odds as if the suspect had been selected randomly from the general population in a single try. [¶] The problem will only grow as the nation’s criminal DNA databases expand. They already contain 6 million profiles.

This description portrays one approach to the issue as if it is the consensus in the scientific literature. It is not. There is disagreement about the need to adjust a random-match probability. Furthermore, if one counts the number of peer-reviewed articles on the subject, the dominant view is that adjustment is not necessary.

(My emphasis.)

So according to Prof. Kaye, the dominant view according to peer-reviewed articles on the subject is portrayed as the minority view (indeed, I note that the view is hardly discussed, as if nobody takes it seriously).

Prof. Kaye’s post has more excellent insights on the right way to view this controversy. Go here to read it.

Previous posts on this subject here and here.

5/3/2008

Statistical Probability in Cold Hit DNA Cases

Filed under: Crime, Dog Trainer, General — Patterico @ 10:20 pm

The L.A. Times has an interesting article about the application of probability measures to “cold hit” cases made from DNA databases. I find the statistical arguments made in the article to be unconvincing, but due to my lack of training in this area, I remain completely humble about my ability to properly analyze the issue. However, experts have widely divergent opinions on the matter — a fact you’d never learn reading the article.

The article begins by describing a 1970s rape/murder scene. A match was made from badly deteriorated DNA that bore only 5 1/2 of the possible 13 markers available. When all 13 markers are available for a match, the probability of a random person bearing the same profile can run to 1 in a quadrillion — thousands of times the number of people on the planet. Because of the lack of the 13 markers in this case, the chance was lowered to 1 in 1.1 million.

This is known as a “random match probability” and the article describes it as the “rarity of a particular DNA profile in the general population.”

At Puckett’s trial earlier this year, the prosecutor told the jury that the chance of such a coincidence was 1 in 1.1 million.

Jurors were not told, however, the statistic that leading scientists consider the most significant: the probability that the database search had hit upon an innocent person.

In Puckett’s case, it was 1 in 3.

The article restates the proposition again later in the article:

In every cold hit case, the panels advised, police and prosecutors should multiply the Random Match Probability (1 in 1.1 million in Puckett’s case) by the number of profiles in the database (338,000). That’s the same as dividing 1.1 million by 338,000.

For Puckett, the result was dramatic: a 1-in-3 chance that the search would link an innocent person to the crime.

It seems to me that the conclusion does not logically follow at all. The formulation simply can’t be right. The suggestion appears to be that the larger the database, the greater the chance is that the hit you receive will be a hit to an innocent person. I think that the larger the database, the greater the probability of getting a hit. Then, once you have the hit, the question becomes: how likely is it that the hit is just a coincidence?

An example makes it simpler.

Let’s say the random match probability for a DNA profile is one in 13.4 billion. In such a case, it seems very unlikely that the hit you get will come back to a different person than the person who left the DNA at the crime scene. Now assume that your database contains all 6.7 billion people on the planet. It’s virtually certain that you will get a hit, of course. But if you got a hit — only one hit — you would intuitively feel certain that you had the right person from that hit.

Yet the logic of the article would seem to say you take 13.4 billion and divide it by the size of the database (6.7 billion). making a 1-in-2 chance (50%) that you have the wrong person (an “innocent person”).

I say hogwash. And I think my example shows why it’s confusing and potentially misleading to use the word “innocent” in these calculations.

My off-the-cuff reaction — and keep in mind, I have no experience in statistics — is that the people who advocate this approach are measuring the question:

1. What are the chances that a search of this database will turn up a match with the DNA profile?

when the truly relevant question is, instead:

2. What are the chances that any one person whose DNA matches a DNA profile is indeed the person who left the DNA from which the profile is taken?

There is a third, rather silly question whose answer seems obvious, but which I will raise for the purposes of relating to an analogy I will make:

3. Once a match has been made through the database, what is the chance that the person whose DNA provided the match will match the DNA profile?

This last one is obviously almost 100%, the lack of complete certainty owing purely to human error; taking human error out of the equation for a theoretical analysis, it’s a tautology: a match is a match.

It seems to me that this is a useful analogy: everyone knows a coin has a 50/50 chance of coming up heads. If I give you a room that has 10,000 coins that were randomly tossed in the air and have landed on the ground, the chances that at least one of those coins landed heads are very nearly approaching 100% certainty (question 1). But the chances that any one of those coins was going to come up heads before it was tossed is still 50% (question 2).

Now, if I tell you to go find me a coin that has come up heads, then the chances it did come up heads are (absent human error) 100% (question 3). But, the chances that it was going to come up heads before it was tossed are still 50% . . . and always will be, no matter how many coins are in the room. You’re almost certain to find one with heads in a room with a larger database (thousands of coins), but the chances that it was going to come up heads always remain the same.

Applying the analogy to a DNA database, it seems to me that the size of the database increases your chances of a hit. But the chances that the profile obtained from your hit is a coincidence will always remain the same, and will always be a function of the number of loci and their frequency in the relevant populations.

The L.A. Times article makes it sound as though it’s quite well accepted that jurors are constantly being misled:

Jurors are often told that the odds of a coincidental match are hundreds of thousands of times more remote than they actually are, according to a review of scientific literature and interviews with leading authorities in the field.

. . . .

[B]ecause database searches involve hundreds of thousands or millions of comparisons, experts say using the general-population statistic can be misleading.

The closest you get to an acknowledgement that not everybody agrees is a passing reference to the fact that this assertion “has been widely but not universally embraced by scientists.”

“Not universally” is quite the understatement. Apparently, there is a debate raging about this among statisticians. Law professor David H. Kaye explains that, while many agree with the analysis described in the L.A. Times article, there is a theory out there that the use of the database “actually increases the probative value of the match.” (I have an e-mail in to Professor Kaye to ask him for further comment.)

The argument to which Professor Kaye refers was made in a Michigan Law Review article by Peter Donnelly, Professor of Statistical Science and Head of the Department of Statistics at the University of Oxford, and Richard D. Friedman, a law professor at the University of Michigan. The first page of their law review article is here. An earlier version of the argument was apparently made by Donnelly with David Balding in a paper titled “Evaluating DNA Profile Evidence When the Suspect is Identified Through a Database Search,” according to mathematician Keith Devlin of Stanford.

Devlin appears to agree with the approach described in the L.A. Times article. However, he says:

Personally, I (together with the collective opinion of the NRC II committee) find it hard to accept Donnelly’s argument, but his view does seem to establish quite clearly that the relevant scientific community (in this case statisticians) have not yet reached consensus on how best to compute the reliability metric for a cold hit.

You’d never know that reading the L.A. Times article, which implies that all but the most rabid pro-law enforcement shills agree that jurors are being given bogus statistics.

[UPDATE: For proof as to how conclusively the paper portrays this point of view, look at this image of what appears on the front page of today’s Sunday paper:

dna-on-front-page.JPG

Tell me where in that image you see any hint that “the relevant scientific community (in this case statisticians) have not yet reached consensus” as mathematician Devlin states.]

The paper wraps up the article by suggesting that the real probability of a coincidence is not 1 in 1.1 million, but 1 in 3:

In the end, however, jurors said they found the 1-in-1.1-million general-population statistic Merin had emphasized to have been the most “credible” and “conservative.” It was what allowed them to reach a unanimous verdict.

“I don’t think we’d be here if it wasn’t for the DNA,” said Joe Deluca, a 35-year-old martial arts instructor.

Asked whether the jury might have reached a different verdict if it had been given the 1-in-3 number, Deluca didn’t hesitate.

“Of course it would have changed things,” he said. “It would have changed a lot of things.”

By the way, in the case described in the L.A. Times article, there was more than just the cold hit. In addition to the fact that the defendant was a serial rapist who described his rapes as “making love” — the same terminology used by the murderer — the prosecution also showed the following:

[Defendant] Puckett “happened to be in San Francisco in 1972,” Merin told jurors in his opening argument. Merin could not place Puckett in [victim] Sylvester’s neighborhood on the day of the slaying. But Puckett had applied for a job near the medical center where Sylvester worked.

With the court lights dimmed and a photo of Sylvester’s naked body displayed on a screen, Merin argued that Puckett’s 1977 sexual assaults showed an “MO” consistent with Sylvester’s killing.

In each of those crimes, Puckett had posed as a police officer to gain the woman’s trust. The absence of forced entry to Sylvester’s apartment indicated her killer had also used a ruse, Merin said.

Puckett had kidnapped his victims by holding a knife or ice pick to their necks, leaving scratches similar to those found on Sylvester’s neck — what Merin called “his signature.”

I now throw open the matter for discussion.

UPDATE: Radley Balko has posted on this. He agrees with the L.A. Times experts. I have posted some counterarguments in his comments.

UPDATE x2: Follow-up post here with helpful responses from Prof. Kaye.

UPDATE x3: Statistics always opens the possibility of using language that doesn’t describe what’s really going on. For example, in this post I referred to “random match probability” as “in essence, the chance that two unrelated people will share the same genetic markers.” I’m not comfortable that this is right, and have removed the sentence. Random match probability refers to the expected frequency of a set of markers appearing in a population of unrelated individuals. I think it’s best to stick with that definition.

Howard Dean: Florida and Michigan Delegations Will Be Seated

Filed under: 2008 Election, General — Patterico @ 12:32 pm

Howard Dean appeared on the Daily Show and said definitively that the Michigan and Florida delegations will be seated. (H/t Scott Jacobs.) The video is here and embedded below.

Representative quotes:

STEWART: If I were designing a plan to submarine your chances, and again, you don’t have to follow my advice here, I would take the state that was, let’s say crucial to the Republican election chances — lets, let’s call it Florida — and I would find a way to insult them. Maybe not seat them at the convention, that sort of thing. Then I would pick a Rust Belt state, maybe a Michigan, and say to them the same. Now you’ve got two states that are angry with you. Do you think that would be a good way?

DEAN: Well, we’re actually going to seat them at the convention.

STEWART: What?! This is news! Are you really going to do that?

DEAN: We’re going to find a way to seat them at the convention.

START: Are you really going to?

DEAN: Yeah.

STEWART: How — how can you do that when their results don’t count?

DEAN: Well, it’s a little hard, but we’re gonna do it.

. . . .

It’s gonna be quite a juggling act, but we’re gonna do it. You cannot have a Democratic convention without Florida and Michigan.

Stewart also asked Dean why Michigan and Florida don’t have to follow the rules. Dean replied: “They do. That’s why they lost their delegates.”

I don’t get it either.

Finally, Dean argued that the Democrats’ system is “still more democratic than the [system used by the] Republicans” — you know, the system where the voters choose all the delegates. Stewart let him get away with that one.

Watch it all, if you can stand it.

Future NYT Supreme Court Correspondent Shows His True Colors in Piece About Incarceration Rates

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 11:40 am

Adam Liptak has never been to Compton.

I know this because if he had been to Compton, he would have taken a different approach to his recent piece criticizing America’s high incarceration rate. If he came face to face with the devastation that violent crime has caused Compton and surrounding communities, he wouldn’t be so appalled by the fact that we’re doing our level best to lock up the people who are robbing and murdering people.

Liptak, you may recall, is the New York Times legal reporter who has been chosen to replace Linda Greenhouse as the paper’s Supreme Court correspondent. Regular readers of this blog will remember Liptak as the author of a piece that gravely misstated the law regarding peremptory challenges in jury selection. Ever since I read that piece, I knew that I would read all future Liptak pieces with a heavy measure of suspicion. That decision was only reinforced by Liptak’s piece bemoaning the fact that America puts a lot of criminals in prison.

Liptak’s piece was brought to my attention by an angry reader on April 23, the day it appeared on the front page of the New York Times. I haven’t blogged it until today because I’ve been busy 24/7 working to add to America’s prison population.

Liptak’s piece puts criticism of America front and center:

The United States has less than 5 percent of the world’s population. But it has almost a quarter of the world’s prisoners.

Indeed, the United States leads the world in producing prisoners, a reflection of a relatively recent and now entirely distinctive American approach to crime and punishment. Americans are locked up for crimes — from writing bad checks to using drugs — that would rarely produce prison sentences in other countries. And in particular they are kept incarcerated far longer than prisoners in other nations.

No, Adam Liptak, our main problem is that we are a violent society.

I know you’re used to people telling you that the prisons are filled mostly with first-time drug users and low-level property criminals. But the facts tell a different story. Here is a chart from the U.S. Department of Justice showing that over half of state prisoners in this country are incarcerated for violent offenses like “murder, negligent and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, sexual assault, robbery, assault, extortion, intimidation, criminal endangerment, and other violent offenses.”

state-prisoners.gif

Now, an argument could be made that, as to the nearly half of crimes that fall into other categories (property crime, drug crime, etc.), we should be incarcerating fewer prisoners. That argument has less force when you start looking at the actual people who are serving these sentences. In virtually all cases, their records are lengthy, sometimes containing violent offenses in their past. The drug seller may have a record including felony assaults. The guy serving 32 months for car theft may have a carjacking on his record within the last ten years.

And there are almost no pure users in prison. Here in California, the vast majority of state prisoners incarcerated for simple possession are in prison because, within the last five years, they have a serious or violent felony on their record — crimes like arson, kidnapping, and rape. Therefore, they don’t qualify for the Proposition 36 drug treatment program, as virtually all other defendants with possession cases do.

So yeah, you could set free the property or drug criminals, but in many cases you’d be setting free potentially violent people. But even if you didn’t care and you kicked every last one of them out of prison, you’d still be left with over 600,000 state prisoners in prison for violent crimes. That would still be a high number compared to other countries.

That doesn’t mean we have an incarceration problem. We have a violent crime problem.

Exactly which violent criminals should we not be incarcerating?

Liptak games the numbers by mushing together statistics and facts about jail inmates and prison inmates. There is a difference.

Jails house people serving short sentences. In virtually all cases, jail inmates are either awaiting trial on any level of crime, or serving a sentence of one year or less. Prisons, by contrast, house people serving sentences of more than one year. In California, this could range from 16 months (again, they actually serve only half) to life, depending on the offense.

Throughout, Liptak mushes the two together when talking about the aggregate numbers (”The United States has, for instance, 2.3 million criminals behind bars“). But at other times he speaks as though all these numbers represent prisoners, as when he says that “Americans are locked up for crimes — from writing bad checks to using drugs — that would rarely produce prison sentences in other countries.”

Well, even here, crimes like writing bad checks and using drugs are typically dealt with by imposing local jail time. Here in Los Angeles, for example, first-time and even second-time shoplifters or bad-check writers will serve only a few days in jail. First-time PCP sellers will generally serve about 90 days (180 days at half-time). (Note that I said “sellers” — first-time PCP users will get a drug treatment program and no incarceration, under the state’s Proposition 36.) This is not what most people think of when they talk about the “horror” (as one of Liptak’s experts terms it) of American incarceration rates.

Prison is different.

Liptak continues:

Criminologists and legal scholars in other industrialized nations say they are mystified and appalled by the number and length of American prison sentences.

Guess what, Adam Liptak? I’m “mystified and appalled” by the number and length of European prison sentences — specifically, the mystifying and appallingly short sentences that too often result in cases of clear, premeditated murder.

For example, in Germany, activists bombed an American military base and killed a U.S. soldier, and received a “life” sentence. By August of last year, two had been paroled after serving only 21 years. In the Netherlands, Volkert Van der Graaf confessed to assassinating politician Pim Fortuyn and was sentenced to all of 18 years.

And I could go on.

I believe many Americans are also “mystified and appalled” by the leniency of these European sentences for premeditated murder. But somehow, Adam Liptak gives no prominence to their views.

Liptak’s article is filled with outrageous statements, but I don’t have the rest of the weekend to respond to them all, so I’ll document two. First, Liptak tells us that America is the worst offender in the world when it comes to incarcerating people — but his proof contains an odd parenthetical caveat:

China, which is four times more populous than the United States, is a distant second, with 1.6 million people in prison. (That number excludes hundreds of thousands of people held in administrative detention, most of them in China’s extrajudicial system of re-education through labor, which often singles out political activists who have not committed crimes.)

So if you put aside the inconvenient fact that China sentences hundreds of thousands of people to forced labor, without judicial due process, as punishment for political dissent — if you ignore that minor detail, so minor it really should be placed inside parentheses, because really, what does it have to do with whether China is inappropriately punitive? — if you ignore that, then America is the worst country in the world!!!

Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

Next, Liptak tells us that part of America’s problem is that we lack a social safety net:

Criminologists and legal experts here and abroad point to a tangle of factors to explain America’s extraordinary incarceration rate: higher levels of violent crime, harsher sentencing laws, a legacy of racial turmoil, a special fervor in combating illegal drugs, the American temperament, and the lack of a social safety net.

Huh?

Here in the United States, our federal social programs include food stamps, SSI, unemployment insurance, the Earned Income Tax Credit, school meals programs, low-income housing assistance, child-care assistance, and various other programs, adding up to 9% of the federal budget, or over $250 billion per year. If you toss in Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, we’re now looking at about half the federal budget, or over $1.3 trillion.

Just imagine how expensive things would be if we did have a safety net!

Remember the guy I wrote about in March who makes a living off of unemployment? He said: “I’ve been on unemployment three times in the past six years. Each time was better than the last, and each time I stayed on until the last cent was exhausted. I didn’t even try to get a job; it was a paid vacation.” I bet he’d be surprised to learn that we lack a social safety net!

But I digress.

Liptak does provide some facts to give the appearance of balance, but these facts are, in most cases, buried. We have to read through almost all the quotes given above, and more — all tirades about how barbaric and out of kilter our penal system is — before Liptak tells us that our high incarceration rate has unquestionably reduced crime. We then get another nine paragraphs of more ranting about the “horror” of American incarceration before Liptak says — in a quote that I cannot prove appeared inside parentheses in the first draft — “The nation’s relatively high violent crime rate, partly driven by the much easier availability of guns here, helps explain the number of people in American prisons.”

That’s the 20th paragraph of the article. Don’t you think that’s kind of important?

Yet that nugget comes after quotes from three experts who say that “contemporary America is viewed with horror” and describe the United States as “a rogue state, a country that has made a decision not to follow what is a normal Western approach.”

The bottom line is that Liptak, our future New York Times Supreme Court correspondent, has written a piece that drips with sympathy for the views of Europeans who think we’re being far too harsh, while burying deep in the article (or in some cases omitting entirely) the facts that would provide a more balanced perspective.

I can’t wait to read his articles on the Supreme Court.

4/30/2008

Fewer Latin American Immigrants Sending Money Home

Filed under: General — DRJ @ 5:57 pm

[Guest post by DRJ]

According to an Inter-American Development Bank survey, fewer Latin American immigrants in America - legal or illegal - are sending money home, although the ones who do are sending more money, more frequently:

“The longstanding pattern of increasing numbers of Latin American immigrants sending increasing amounts of money back home has stopped,” said Donald Terry, the general manager of the Multilateral Investment Fund at the bank and the official in charge of the survey. With lower income and less job security, Latino immigrants are saving their money here rather than sending it to support children, spouses and parents at home, the study indicated.

Latino immigrants said they stopped sending money to their families because life is becoming more difficult for them here. Of those interviewed, 81 percent said it was harder to find a good-paying job. Almost 40 percent said they were earning less this year. The largest group of immigrants in the survey, 18 percent, worked in construction, which has been especially hard hit in the slowdown.”

More immigrants reported encountering hostility and discrimination, and an increased number were also considering a return to their home countries:

“A large majority of the Latino immigrants in the survey — whether or not they were illegal — said they experienced increasing hostility as a result of U.S. government and state efforts to curb illegal immigration and punish employers who hire unauthorized immigrant workers. In the survey, 61 percent of Latinos who were American citizens and 66 percent of those who were legal immigrants said that discrimination had become a major problem for them.

As a result of the difficulties, the numbers of immigrants who said they were considering going back to live in their home countries increased notably. Among immigrants who have been here less than five years, 49 percent said they were thinking of returning home, while only 41 percent said they planned to remain in the United States. Over all, just under one-third of the immigrants said they were thinking of leaving this country.

In 2001, the last time a similar survey asked a comparable question, about 20 percent of all the immigrants interviewed said they were thinking of going home.”

At the same time, almost 70% of the interviewees felt their lives were better in America than they would be in their home countries. According to the pollster who conducted the survey, their major concern was fear that they would not be able to get or keep American jobs.

Legal immigrants should not have to fear for their jobs. However, without a breakdown in the responses from legal and illegal immigrants, it’s hard to evaluate this information. It’s also difficult to tell if their fears are justifiably based on anti-immigrant attitudes or on the slowing of the economy, especially in housing which employs many immigrants.

– DRJ

Al Jazeera Visits Mainstreet USA

Filed under: General — DRJ @ 9:19 am

[Guest post by DRJ]

Part One: Religion in George Bush’s America.

Part Two: Is Bush steadfast or stubborn?

H/T Fire Ant Gazette.

– DRJ

4/28/2008

Well, Well, Well — As John McClane would say: “Welcome to the Party Andrew”

Filed under: General — WLS @ 4:13 pm

Posted by WLS:

After spending months on his sactimonious soapbox lecturing the press and electorate in general, and conservatives and Republicans in particular, about why Barack Obama is simply the most transcendental political figure ever, and any attack on Obama’s “associations” is simply an effort to derail the campaign of a man with “popular policies and a brilliant speaking style” with meaningless distractions — it seems as if Andrew Sullivan has, as of about 5:55 p.m. eastern time, finally seen the light on Wright.

First, a couple things Andrew wrote yesterday and earlier today

4/27/08 at  8:29 pm 

The transcript is here. I found it moving in parts, and certainly a helpful counter to the notion that Wright is some insane anti-American demagogue. He has some views I don’t hold, but he seems a genuine Christian witness to me.  

To be able to see how some of the more toxic events in this campaign can be turned into opportunities for dialogue and mutual understanding is an authentically Christian achievement. And not easy. Bitter is easy.

4/28 — 10:15 am.

The face of the GOP:  And why so many of us find it a toxic place to be:

An entire election and an entire political season may be reduced by one party to three words uttered by a black pastor without context and conflated with the Democratic nominee. And it works in Mississippi primarily because the pastor is black and the candidate is black. Pure Rove….

The question, of course, is whether this kind of crude, content-free racial and ideological demagoguery will backfire outside places such as Mississippi. I don’t know. But if Republicans want to know why so many of us cannot stomach their politics any more, they don’t have far to look.

4/28 at 11:03 am.

Fifteen posts at the Corner this morning on the same subject. If only Jeremiah Wright was running for something … the GOP would have a chance this year.

4/28 at 1:41 pm.

That Crazy Corner [at NRO]:   A reader writes:

The best part of the Corner’s coverage of Wright is that half of it is under the guise of “defending” African-Americans against Wright’s stereotyping of them. The chutzpah never stops, does it?

4/28 at 2:22 pm.

Isn’t it a relief, by the way, for the MSM to have a presidential campaign in which no issues are actually discussed? This Wright-stuff is amazing to me. It’s all the MSM seems to care about. Even coverage of McCain is now about his attitude toward an unhinged black pastor from Chicago. Hey: it beats discussing war, debt, the economy, torture, and terrorism. Because it enables America to return to the classic boomer racial-cultural wars that are all the MSM truly knows how to cover. There’s nothing to be done right now but to duck and cover. And emerge when actual questions of actual salience emerge.

But, sometime in the three hours that followed this last post earlier today, Andrew managed to actually consider just what it is that Obama’s spiritual guide and father figure has been really saying over the last 48 hours — rather than simply derisively dismiss the firestorm in the blogosphere today — and now he’s suddenly singing from a different transcendental hymnal:

I guess I am late to the party, am I not? I didn’t watch Jeremiah Wright’s National Press Club performance live this morning, as every other blogger seemed to. Wright is not on the ticket of any major party, he is not Barack Obama, and I’m not going to be baited into making this campaign about him, or the boomer cultural racial obsessions that so many want this vital election to be about.

But then I actually read what he said.

I knew he was an exhibitionist; many of his sermons at Trinity, read in their entirety, do fall within the tradition of some prophetic teaching; I can forgive occasional outbursts from fiery preachers; he has done much good in his own neighborhood and his interview with Bill Moyers struck me as defensible; parts of his address at the Press Club were completely uncontroversial and even contained some important truths.

But what he said today, the way in which he said it, the unrepentant manner in which he reiterated some of his most absurd and offensive views, his attempt to equate everything he believes with the black church as a whole, and his open public embrace of Farrakhan and hostility to the existence of Israel Zionism, make any further defense of him impossible. 

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/04/wrights-poison.html

Maybe Andrew will dignify his former political fellow travelers with a little more judiciousness in considering their political views of the transcendental candidate whose one true promise to Andrew is to bestow upon him the holy grail of the “right” to homosexual marriage.

Update:  In response to a couple of different comments, I have changed the spelling of the name of Bruce Willis’ “Die Hard” character in the caption.  But come on — who looks up the spelling of movie character names???

Bill Kristol Praises Hillary

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 6:05 am

And Allahpundit.

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